2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 

If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 

But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.

2023-24 NBA Finals

(TWO) Mavs 98-105 Celtics

Game Two was close into the 3rd quarter, then the Celtics ran off and left them. I thought Jrue Holiday was the Man of the Match. Porzingis was fine but not the electric presence he was in Game One.

(THREE) Celtics 106-99 Mavs

Game Three was, again, close into the 3rd quarter, then the Celtics ran off and left them--well....sorta. The Celtics went on a run, got the lead up to 21, then kinda fell asleep as the Mavs clawed back to cut the lead to 1. Then the Celtics finished strong and won rather easily after Luka fouled out (in major frustration mode). If you wanna say Jaylen Brown was the Man of the Match for fouling out Luka, I guess I'd go with that.

(FOUR) Celtics 84-122 Mavs

Game Four was over quick, as the Celtics threw in the towel rather early, allowing the Mavs to have one big explosion in front of their home fans (the epitome of the 'Gentleman's Sweep'). You knew someone was gonna suck tonight and I figured it would be the Celtics (I put the chances at 75% Celtics, 25% Mavs). One way or the other, you just knew the 4th quarter of this game was gonna be a snooze. 

(FIVE) Mavs 88-106 Celtics

Game Five was a slow motion stomping. The Celtics took control in the 2nd quarter, but somehow there was still this nervous feeling they were gonna blow it. But...how was that gonna happen? We established in Game One that the Mavs needed perfection from Luka AND from Kyrie AND from the bench to even have a shot in this series. Well, outside of Game Four, that never came close to happening. This series was DOA, Porzingis nailed the coffin shut in the 1st half of the 1st game!

The deal is this Celtics version is one of the most perfectly constructed teams I've ever seen--so perfectly constructed that it was hard to recognize because there was no clear and obvious star or dominant attribute. They were just plain good at every phase of the game. This was a top down creation where each player was given a free run to be his best self because the GM and the coach knew exactly how the pieces on the chessboard were gonna win the game. 

Personally, I thought the MVP of this series was Jrue Holiday, that guy was everywhere on defense, had an important offensive blow out in Game Two and just generally held everything together. Brown is a fine choice, he was good, too. But so was Tatum and Derrick White and though Porzingis played limited minutes, one could argue that he sealed this series in his first appearance. Al Horford was good, Peyton Pritchard was good (btw, I totally knew that half court buzzer beater was going in, knew it before he even got the ball), Sam Hauser hit some big shots in Game Five (and just missed on a few others) and even Xavier Tillman had a nice Game Three. Throw in that Coach Mazzullo was punching all the right burtons and it was just a reminder that the Celtics were the best team all season long, we just weren't sure until the trophy was hoisted.

Yes, they didn't have to play Giannis or Emibiid or Jimmy Butler or the scrappy Knicks but...so what? I think they would've beaten them anyway (hell, I think only the Knicks would've really made them sweat). Nor did they have to play the Nuggets (but they were hurt and just not as good as last year, so I think the Celtics could've/would've beaten them) or the Wolves (looking back on it, they might have been the toughest match up for the Celtics, but I think the Celtics would've won) or the Thunder (they didn't have the playoff experience to get through the West much less the Celtics). 

Turns out the Celtics had to beat the teams that got to them and they dispatched them all with ease. This was a steady good team, it wasn't a dominant team or a team that you slobbered over all season long, but this Celtics team is ultimately one of the most complete, all-around teams I think I've ever seen. Tatum and Brown are an all-time great duo, White and Holiday are the perfect complementary players for them, Porzingis was a zany wild card (that may well have been an all-star on a lot of other teams), Horford was the right grizzled vet to keep them in line and even the bench guys (Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser) generally handled their tasks accordingly. This team is set for the next 2 years, Coach Maz knows what he's doing and GM Stevens has shown that he understands the soul of this squad and won't hesitate to make big deals. Huzzah to the Celtics!

I said it last year, I'll say it again this year: I got Nuggets over Celtics in the next Final (watch out for the Bucks and the Thunder).

2024 Champions League Final

Real Madrid 2-0 Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund came in as the mighty underdog, the pluckiest team in this year's competition if not the best; Real came in as the overlord, the faves, the ones everyone just expected to win. Well, they did.

I thought Dortmund pretty well dominated the offense for the first 70 or so minutes of the game. They pushed forward effectively numerous times, never finding the back of the net but generally looking more dangerous than Madrid. 

Then in the 71st minute, Dortmund gave up a corner, parried it away rather easily, but they failed to properly clear and Madrid got an extra rip at the goal, resulting in another corner. Not a big deal, really, but something felt off about that play. Even the commentator suggests that it was a bad giveaway by the Dortmund defense. 

Sure enough, seconds later, Carvajal connects on a header, skips past the keeper to the wide open far net. Just like that...

But because Dortmund's attack had been better than Madrid's, it still felt like there was time to reach the draw. Then in 82nd minute, Vini struck off a bad giveaway by the Dortmund defense (check it out: Bellingham is celebrating before Vini even takes the shot). That was ball game, just 10 more minutes of watching the clock run out after that. 

For the most part Dortmund really was the better team on this day, but two bad moments in the backfield is all it takes. Hell of a run by Borussia Dortmund but Real Madrid struck like champions and took home the trophy (and they've already announced that Kylian MBappe is joining the roster). 

2021-22 NBA Finals (Game One)

Celtics 120-108 Warriors

Great win for the Celtics! The Warriors were up 87-72 with 1:30 left in the 3rd quarter; from that point on the Celtics outscored the Warriors 48-21 on a combination of wasted possessions by the Warriors and some blistering 3-point shooting by the Celtics (especially Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown). This highlights the one serious flaw the Warriors have long possessed: they don't have a killer instinct. When the Warriors are rolling, they casually outscore everyone they play and don't really have to dig deeper for emotional pleading. But when it gets turned back on them, they flail badly. In this case, I'd point the finger first and foremost at Coach Kerr--hey, man, how about a timeout? The ABC broadcast showed the Warriors huddle when they were down 106-103 and Kerr says, 'we're doing great!' Dude...no you're not! You were up by 15, like, twelve seconds ago and you just got an avalanche dumped on your face! Why didn't Kerr slow down the momentum a little sooner? (The answer, I presume, is that the Warriors just assumed that they'd get hot and take the game back....but they never did)

Another troubling takeaway for the Warriors is that Jordan Poole does not look ready for this. That's a problem because they are going to need him to emerge as a reliable scorer if they plan on outrunning the Celtics. Another problem, is that, outside of Poole, everyone played pretty well and they still got rolled in their own building. Curry was good early on, Porter gave good minutes off the bench and even Iguodala hit some big shots. Draymond's stat line (2-12 from the field) is misleading in the sense that most all of his shots were bailouts at the end of the shot clock, but he needs to be dangerous there if he's going to make a worthwhile contribution.

Also, troubling for the Warriors is that Jaysun Tatum mostly sucked. Celtics fas can talk themselves into the notion that he was still contributing, but his role is to get buckets, not simply 'contribute', so the fact that the Warriors played him out of the game and still lost is not a good sign. Indeed, I'd say only Horford was consistently good for 4 quarters, this should've been a walkover for the Warriors and it went quite horribly wrong in the other direction. 

Is this the end of the road for the Warriors? Well you may recall that in the 2019 playoffs, the Celtics swiped a W in Game One against the Bucks (led by a dominant Al Horford performance, as I recall) but then lost the next four games. We can also look back to the Sixers taking Game One of the 2001 finals before dropping four straight, so the Warriors can still dominate this series.

Can the Celtics do this again? Well, again, considering they didn't get much from Tatum or Grant Williams (not sure he's a fit for this series), floundered badly coming out of halftime and still got a big win, the Celtics are already living on house money for now. Once Tatum gets going (oh, he will), the Celtics should be pretty confident in their scoring. Also, I thought Payton Pritchard had a good game and seems like he's gonna get minutes in this series. (That said, over the course of 7 games, feels like the Celtics aren't as deep and their rotation could get chewed up over the long haul) 

What do the Warriors need to do? They've got to get turnovers from Smart and Brown, they need Jordan Poole to step up and be dominant off the bench and Coach Kerr needs to keep a better eye on the flow of the game. Also, I suspect the refs will make a difference, which would likely favor the Warriors, so knocking down their FT's (something Curry has been strangely shaky on this post-season) is a must. We'll see what Gary Payton II has to offer, too, if he can disrupt the Celtics offense, the scoring onslaught could return to the Warriors side. 

Curious to see where this series goes. If the Celtics can score another shocker tonight, then they can start planning the parade. But the Warriors aren't done, they can play better on both ends--and, again, the refs can be serious game-changers. This series isn't over. All right, I'm ready for ball night!

2021-22 NFL Superbowl

AFC: Bengals 30-27 (OT) Chiefs

Well, the Chiefs were dominating this match until they just stopped playing. They rather easily scored TD's on their first three drives while holding the Bengals to a single hard fought FG. Then came the Perrine play (swing pass to the RB, he breaks one tackle, gets a nice block down field and goes 41 yards for the TD), and the Chiefs bumbled the rest of the game away. Right before the Half, the Chiefs got the ball to the 1-yard line--3 feet from a death blow!--and rather than taking the FG, they try a swing pass to Tyreke that goes nowhere, clock runs out. (WTF was that?) No worries, though, the Chiefs get the ball to start the 2nd half...but they go nowhere. And rather than getting back to their 1st half mastery--all they had to do was keep running the ball!--they floundered throughout and I've never seen Mahomes flail so badly. The Bengals, on the other hand, kept their game plan in order and even stole the lead before the Chiefs finally put together a good drive (though Mahomes inexplicably tried to fumble it away) to send the game to OT. Well, in perfect Chiefs fashion, they won the coin toss and then....went nowhere all over again. Bengals win. Weird, man. The Bengals made the necessary adjustments at halftime to fustigate Mahomes but the solution to the problem was to hand off to McKinnon and run up the middle for 4-5 yards every time, eat up the clock and pile up FG's. Yeah...the Chiefs did none of that. The Bengals are good and they did what they needed to do to win but the Chiefs were the better team when they felt like it. I have no idea why the Chiefs chose not to win this game but that's how it worked out.  

NFC: Niners 17-20 Rams 

Back and forth game, neither team took command, though the Niners finally gave it away with a late interception. Both teams had a few good drives but I'd say the Rams were the better offense, with a missed FG, an interception in the end zone and an ill-advised 4th down attempt mixed in with their punts. The Niners had the lead for most of the game but I never felt they were in control, nor that they would win. The Rams tend to start well and then wane late in the game, but here they played a complete game and were generally the better team. 

(Did anyone notice all the late hits, helmet-to-helmet, out of bounds hits, illegal shots after turnovers, etc., in both games? Dude, they even threw a flag on the Niners defense and then just picked it up--wtf? Weird, man, both games featured a number of what looked like illegal hits to me that did not get called, seems like the NFL is going full Rollerball to close out this season)

Super Bowl: Rams (-4) @ Bengals (o/u 48.5)

I've been watching the Bengals all season and though I think the Chiefs were better (oh, and I still believe Buffalo would've beaten the Bengals, too), the Bengals are not a fluke, they are legit good, that offense is really good and the defense has been getting better over the last 4-6 weeks or so; and if you haven't watched much Joe Burrow so far, I assure you that dude is fuckin' good (*). The Rams at their best are probably the best team in the league but they don't seem capable of 4 straight quarters of excellence, meaning the Bengals will have a shot at stealing the W. My basic take on these teams is that the Rams start well and finish poorly and that the Bengals start slow but get rolling by the end. Based on that I expect the Rams to be up at halftime and probably starting the 4th quarter, but that the Bengals will be in contention and could well steal this game late. In other words: the final 2 minutes or so should be good stuff. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Burrow lead a comeback, I think the Rams will make the necessary defensive stand and seal the victory. (I like either Aaron Donald or Von Miller to win MVP) I'll go with the Rams 27-24 (Bengals and the over).  

(*) My favorite Joe Burrow quality: whatever happened five minutes ago don't matter, that guy thinks only of the next play. You can tell, too, that his teammates kinda worship him--a necessary condition, I would suggest, in a truly successful QB.

2021 MLS Final

Fun game! Not a lot of scoring but plenty of back and forth action. NYCFC struck me as the more aggressive side throughout (and the deserving winner). Though Portland's defense was sturdy, I was little surprised how uninspiring their counterattack was. I mean, if you're living on defense, then the quick counter is your best choice to score, right? But in that final flurry of regulation, you just knew Portland was gonna score to keep it alive. 

But Portland couldn't get anything going in OT and missed their fist two shots in the shootout and, well, tough to win when you don't score. Great win for NYCFC, better luck next year for Portland.

2019-20 NCAA Bowl Results

(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
Yeah, that's about right. The game started a little slow as each team calibrated their offenses against new defensive looks, but you just knew this game was not gonna be a defensive slugfest and once they got going, both teams moved the ball pretty well. I thought the refs kinda sucked: in those first few drives they really let the teams batter each other when it seemed like both sides were looking to the refs to establish the parameters of the game. The refs failed to do that and then randomly called pass interference through the game. I thought the refs were fairly even, but Clemson had a TD called back in the 3rd quarter for what I thought was a bogus pass interference that might have sparked something. That said, this game turned out about right, the score was a little lower than I thought it would be, largely because the offenses started slow and then Clemson got frustrated by the 4th quarter and mostly just spun their wheels. LSU was really good, man, Joe Burrow was a mathematician out there all season long and he was again in the Final. (I guess I expect Clemson to start #1 next season with Alabama and Ohio State right behind them; wouldn't be surprised if that's your Final Four, along with Oklahoma, next year)


Right (24)
(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
(4) Oklahoma 28-63 (1) LSU
(3) Clemson 29-23 (2) Ohio State
(5) Georgia 26-14 (7) Baylor
(6) Oregon 28-27 (8) Wisconsin
(9) Florida 36-28 (24) Virginia
(17) Memphis 39-53 (10) Penn State
(14) Michigan 16-35 (13) Alabama

(15) Notre Dame 33-9 Iowa State
Boston College 6-20 (21) Cincinnati
(22) Southern Cal 24-49 (16) Iowa
(20) Appalachian State 31-17 UAB
(23) Navy 20-17 Kansas State
(25) Oklahoma State 21-24 Texas A&M

Buffalo 31-9 Charlotte

BYU 34-38 Hawaii

Louisiana Tech 14-0 Miami
Pittsburgh 34-30 Eastern Michigan

North Carolina 55-13 Temple

Western Kentucky 23-20 Western Michigan

Virginia Tech 30-37 Kentucky
Florida State 14-20 Arizona State

Louisiana 27-17 Miami (OH)

California 35-20 Illinois

Wrong (17)
(11) Utah 10-38 Texas
(18) Minnesota 31-24 (12) Auburn

Utah State 41-51 Kent State
Central Michigan 11-48 San Diego State
Liberty 23-16 Georgia Southern
SMU 28-52 Florida Atlantic
California 35-20 Illinois

Florida Int'l 26-34 Arkansas State

Michigan State 27-21 Wake Forest
Air Force 31-21 Washington State
Mississippi State 28-38 Louisville
Wyoming 38-17 Georgia State
Indiana 22-23 Tennessee
Ohio 30-21 Nevada
Southern Mississippi 13-30 Tulane
Alcorn State 44-64 North Carolina A&T
Central Florida 48-25 Marshall

No spreads, just winners. I did pretty good picking the ranked teams--the only two I missed were another shocking upset by Texas and Minnesota sticking it to Auburn (which I would have loved to have picked!). Of the unranked teams...I dunno...total crapshoot and I didn't fare all that well. Oh well, already looking forward to next year. 

2019-20 NCAA Championship

(3) Clemson - (1) LSU (-6) (o/u 70)

LSU was the best team I saw all year long. Ohio State was second but Clemson beat them and I wasn't shocked by that because Clemson is always hard to figure (though it just dawned on me today that their QB, Trevor Lawrence, is so far still undefeated as a college QB, with one more full season to play). The way Clemson dusted off Alabama last year was eye-opening, which is why I refuse to overlook them this time around. But I saw LSU a lot this season and they looked confidently dominant against everyone they played and their QB, Joe Burrow, is a machine back there, a guy who seemingly knows every play before it happens. The only Clemson game I paid much attention to was their hamfisted lucky W against North Carolina (who was okay this year but nothing special), though to their credit they played like a team that glimpsed their own mortality for the rest of the season. Should be a good game.

I think LSU is going to score a lot. Clemson's D certainly doesn't suck but LSU moved the ball on Alabama and Auburn and Georgia with ease and I expect they'll do the same to Clemson. I'd be surprised if they scored less than 30 points. Clemson's offense is very good, too, and I expect them to move the ball, but I don't think they played a defense as good as LSU's until they ran into Ohio State in the semifinal; they struggled against the Buckeyes until the 4th quarter when they finally got a sense of urgency and pulled out all the stops and rode it to a victory. LSU's defense is not as great as usual, but then again they traditionally haven't had big leads by halftime before either, so I'm willing to chalk up a lot of garbage time/prevent play that gives up yards and even points. Clemson cannot afford to wait til the 4th quarter to wake up tonight, though I wouldn't be surprised if that offense cranks up late regardless of the circumstances.

The next two #1 picks (Joe Burrow, 2020; Trevor Lawrence, 2021) will be in display and that is a good thing. This is the game we've been waiting for all year long (with apologies to the Buckeyes) and I'm looking forward to it--the kinda game that makes me wish I had cable!

I think the halftime score will be something like LSU 30-17. From there I would expect Clemson to charge furiously in the 2nd half, but come up short. I'll say LSU 54-45 (LSU and the over--waaaaay over).

US Open Final (Atlanta United 2-1 Minnesota United)

Dang, nice deep cut of the final game (of which I saw none).  Felt like Minnesota had a lot of chances in the 2nd half and that Brad Guzan finished really strong. Atlanta are now the League champs and Cup champs, nice.

2018-19 NBA Finals (Game Six)

So far...
Bucks over Pistons (4)/Warriors over Clippers (6)
Raptors over Magic (5)/Nuggets over Spurs (7)
Sixers over Nets (5)/Blazers over Thunder (5)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Rockets over Jazz (5)

Bucks over Celtics (5)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Raptors over Sixers (7)/Blazers over Nuggets (7)

Raptors over Bucks (6)/Warriors over Blazers (4)

Then...

Warriors 109-118 Raptors
The Warriors were okay, the Raptors were really good, got big offense from Siakam and Gasol to cover up that Kawhi was actually pretty mediocre for the first three quarters. Good win for the Raptors at home, as I predicted. Some people were so amazed by this result and were quickly selling their Warriors stock, suggesting the dynasty was already over. But why? Shit, man, the Warriors had a long lay off (after dusting off the Blazers) to ponder how to get by without Durant, while the Raptors were starting their first Finals appearance at home after finding themselves in a tough series over the Bucks, arguably the best team in the league. This result was not a shock to me.

Warriors 109-104 Raptors
Warriors bounce back, control the offense, played good defense, got good minutes out of Cousins (good not great, let's relax on his performance) and generally looked like the team that swept the Blazers. The Raptors were not bad, Kawhi was actually pretty good, but the supporting cast didn't shine out big like the game before, so the Warriors were able to build and keep the lead. Again, to me, this was not unexpected: I thought they'd be split after two games, I kinda figured the Raptors would strike first and then the Warriors would strike back, and go on a run...

Raptors 123-109 Warriors
...Expect that the run did not happen. (At least not yet) Klay came up gimpy after Game Two (worth recalling that Iguodala came up gimpy after Game One) and Kevon Looney was announced injured and out for the season. Curry was amazing (47/8/7) but without Klay, the Warriors didn't have enough scoring and were never in this game. The Raptors controlled the tempo from beginning to end, everyone played well, not a dominant performance but a consistent and convincing one.

Raptors 105-92 Warriors
Klay returned and was great, Looney also returned and was fine, but even still the Raptors controlled the ball throughout and the Warriors just could not generate enough offense to get into the game. In the 3rd quarter, Curry went cold, Kawhi got hot and that was pretty much it. The Raptors were crisp and confident throughout. All signs pointing to the Raptors finishing it in the next game.

Warriors 106-105 Raptors
Durant returned and was great...until early in the 2nd quarter when he got hurt again (re-injured his achilles or newly injured his achilles?) and did not return; he only played a few minutes but he was very effective and gave the squad a huge lift. The Warriors held control until late in the 4th quarter, when the Raptors had an offensive flurry and took a 6 point lead with three minutes to go. Suddenly the Raptors went cold, there were a bunch of weird plays from both sides (were you expecting a sloppy over-and-back in the last two minutes of a Finals game?), and the Warriors are still alive. They're depleted but they have announced that they can still win...though Durant and Looney are now officially gone, Cousins was already injured, and Klay and Iguodala have both suffered, as well.

So what happens now?

I say the Raptors win Game Six. A weird wrinkle I hadn't previously considered: both these teams are better on the road. The Warriors were outmanned and abysmal in Games Three and Four, the Raptors were sluggish and sloppy in Games Two and Five. The Raptors fanbase is loud, crazy and obsessed; the Warriors fanbase is grumpy and fickle. I think the Raptors will steel themselves, play their good spread-it-around offense, keep Draymond and Klay in check on the other end and pile on points as the fans file for the exits. I think there's something nerve-wracking about playing in front of your own fans, while being on the road can really bring a team together.

Kawhi is never awful and is pretty much always a great defender but his offense has been a bit spotty, I expect him to be better in Golden State. The infusion of Western conference players (Gasol, Green, Ibaka) has brought the Raptors plenty of confidence on the Warriors floor. I expect Siakam, Van Vleet and Lowry to be aggressive throughout and I would expect Anunoby (probably won't play if Durant isn't in there), Powell and McCaw to make the most of any time they see. I think the Raptors are capable of playing their best game.

Meanwhile, Draymond has been the MVP, Curry has been the other MVP (that one that will get the votes), Klay has been great when available, Iguodala is giving his all....but that's about it. Durant and Looney are both officially not gonna play again this season. Cousins has reminded me of Gronkowski out there: he's still big enough and smart enough to be effective at times, he can still make the right play here and there, but mostly he looks like he's lugging a pullout couch up a flight of stairs; I don't think the Warriors can rely in any way on him having a big game. Livingston has not been a negative but he hasn't been much of a positive either, I don't see how his contribution could raise the level of the team at this point. McKinnie has had nice moments but not enough to make up for the loss of Durant. Bogut is officially shot (*). Jerebko, Bell and Jones have not fared well at all. Curry and Klay and Draymond and Iguodala will have to be absolutely perfect on both ends of the floor and I just don't see how they do it.

The return of Kevin Durant was set up to be a painful gimmick from the beginning. I certainly hope this doesn't do damage to his career but we already know he'll be missing most of next season wherever he plays, so there's nothing good about this for him. He's an athlete, he wanted to play, the team wanted him to play, he tried to play and didn't work in his favor, that's a shame but the blame goes to everyone. It was enough, though, to get the Warriors over the hump in Game Five--even his limited production was better than what McKinnie was gonna do and they held the lead for most of that game. So where do the Warriors get that from in Game Six? The fans? I ain't seeing it. I think the Raptors play a great game and the Warriors look like they're running in sand. Raptors in 6.


(* Do you realize he won the DPOY in the Australian League....this year? He is the reigning DPOY and MVP of the Australian League...man, that don't reflect all that well on the Australian League, does it?)

2018-19 NCAA Football

(2) Clemson 44-16 (1) Alabama

Okay, well that answers a few questions I've had all season long: Since Alabama has so effortlessly crushed their opponents this season, what will happen if/when they need to exert effort (they'll lose); since Clemson has so effortlessly crushed their opponents this season, are they actually any good (oh yeah, they're good). Man, anything Clemson wanted to do, they did--right down to the expertly crafted long drive to kill the clock at the end of the game. Breath-taking is an apt phrase, I am breath-took-en. Alabama didn't even play bad in the 1st half: Tua threw two bad interceptions, but he bounced back pretty well and still moved the ball. But Clemson's offense just blew through Alabama in a way I haven't seen in years. That forced Saban to go for TD's instead of FG's and it just destroyed the Tide machine: built for dominance, not clever creativity. A fake FG? Nick Saban went for a fake fg?!? (*) Weird: less then 5 minutes into this game, Clemson was up 14-7 and they'd already punted once. 

What was this game like? I'm gonna reach back to the 2014 World Cup: Spain rolls in as the defending Champs and the 2-time Euro champ (meaning they've just won the toughest competition in the world 3 straight times), while the Netherlands roll in with their usual bunch of talented head-cases, who all seem to hate each other. Feels like Spain is gonna get a good opening result at the next Cup...Netherlands win 5-1. Game was never close, Dutch up at the half and straight pummeled Spain for the final 45 minutes. I bring this up because that was the last time I remember a balls-out, undisputed cock of the walk just getting blasted like a Rocky villain.

Or how about this one: 2005 French Open semifinals. Federer is on his way to his peak, undisputed #1, crushed at multiple Wimbledon, Australia and US Opens, just needs the French (back when Gaston Gaudio was the man at Roland Garros) to complete the slam, gets to the semis against some unranked schlub named Nadal...Federer goes down in 4 sets to the man that then goes on to be the best in the history of the French Open. Federer got handled in a way that no one had seen him get handled in a long long time. And its not that Federer played bad, quite the opposite, just turns out that Nadal was one of the best ever though no one knew that yet. 

So, is it over for Alabama? Oh, fuck no! What??? I fully expect Alabama to finish in the top 4 for at least five of the next ten years (5? Dude, that's a low ball). I expected that before this game, still expect that after this game. I'll say the same for Clemson, I fully expect Dabo to dig in a build a mighty castle there. So they're both here to stay.

I'll go ahead and guarantee that they'll meet next year in the Playoff. And that game will likely answer all my questions about next season: can Alabama bounce back? Can Clemson keep it going? Will (Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State) be good enough to crack the top 2?

Alabama should rule the SEC West for the foreseeable future. Auburn will have a good year every once in a while, LSU and A&M, too, but I got Alabama winning 4 of the next 5 SEC titles, don't you? In the East, I can see Florida jumping Georgia next year, but I expect them to finish in the top 2.

Clemson will win the ACC. (I don't even care who finishes 2nd)

I think Oklahoma is still gonna be good (they'll re-load) and Texas looks to be moving in the right direction. The rest of the Big 12 is probably playing for 3rd place.

I think Ohio State keeps going without Urban Meyer. Felt like he was more of a distraction than a plus last year, seems like his deal with Ohio State will keep him out of coaching and thus possibly able to come back to Columbus if need be, so I think moving on will be kinda painless. I expect the Buckeyes to be better next year and crush the Big 10. (I'm curious to keep an eye on Nebraska, could be a waking giant)

Notre Dame will probably be similar next year playing a similar schedule, seems very possible to me they go undefeated again and get back in Playoff contention.

Pac-12 is a clusterfuck. I wasn't that into Washington or Washington State (that decisive match was a snooze) and the championship (Washington 10-7 Utah) was a yawn. Seems like UCLA and/or USC should be on the rise (though it feels like that merely spells the football demise of Cal and Stanford, both of whom I think fade in the coming years) and Oregon and Utah will probably be pretty good. But I'm not feeling any of them challenging for the Final Four.

So what do we got? Alabama, Clemson are locks to have the talent to be worthy of a Playoff appearance. I'll take Ohio State and the winner of Oklahoma-Texas to round out the semi-final. That leaves Notre Dame, the Pac-12 winner, the winner of UGA-Florida and Central Florida complaining about not getting their chance. And, uh, I reckon that's what every year will look like for most of the next decade in college football.

The duopoly is here for a while. Long live the duopoly!


(*) Do you get why Saban's fake FG is so strange? Saban doesn't need trick plays because he has 5-6 All-Americans on his offense, he expects to get 1st downs every time out anyway. If he's resorting to tricks it means he can't get it done--he's already given up! If it had worked there would be have been a ray of hope, but if it doesn't work...shit, you didn't even get 3 points out of it...and, man, Bama fans don't feel like that very often. That play was the white flag, the announcement that the game was over, a most un-Saban-like display.

2018-19 NCAA Bowl Results

(I forgot to do this in a timely fashion so I didn't pick spreads this year, just the winners)

Right (24)
(4) Oklahoma 34-45 (1) Alabama
(3) Notre Dame 3-30 (2) Clemson
(9) Washington 23-28 (6) Ohio St
(14) Kentucky 27-24 (12) Penn State
NC State 13-53 (19) Texas A&M
(23) Missouri 33-38 Oklahoma St
Arizona St 20-31 (21) Fresno St

Marshall 38-30 South Florida

Florida Int'l 35-32 Toledo
Temple 27-56 Duke
Baylor 45-38 Vanderbilt
Arkansas St 13-16 (OT) Nevada
Cincinnati 35-31 Virginia Tech
Stanford 14-13 Pittsburgh
Michigan St 6-7 Oregon
Buffalo 32-42 Troy

Utah State 52-13 North Texas
Georgia Southern 23-21 Eastern Michigan
UAB 37-13 Northern Illinois
Western Michigan 18-49 BYU
Houston 14-70 Army
Miami 3-35 Wisconsin
Purdue 14-63 Auburn

South Carolina 0-28 Virginia


Cancelled
Boston College - (25) Boise State

Wrong (14)
(15) Texas 28-21 (5) Georgia

(10) Florida 41-15 (7) Michigan
(11) LSU 40-32 (8) Central Florida
(24) Iowa St 26-28 (13) Washington St
(16) West Virginia 18-34 (20) Syracuse
(22) Northwestern 31-20 (17) Utah

(18) Mississippi St 22-27 Iowa 

Tulane 41-24 Louisiana
Middle Tennessee 13-45 Appalachian State
San Diego St 0-27 Ohio
Minnesota 34-10 Georgia Tech
Cal 7-10 TCU
Hawaii 14-31 Louisiana
Memphis 34-37 Wake Forest

Really surprised Georgia fell to Texas. And, sorry Texas, I'm putting it squarely on UGA not bothering to show up for the game. They got it up for Alabama, that was their real shot at glory, and then figured the season was done when the SEC title game didn't go their way. Texas had a nice season, they're moving in the right direction (finally!), but they weren't better than Georgia this year and this result really kinda shocked me.
Good W's for Florida and LSU, in a proper pool I think I would've won with Iowa State covering the spread, WVU really bottomed out after starting strong, not sure why I picked Utah, surprised that Mississippi State fell to a mid-tier Big 10 squad. (And I should've had Ohio and TCU, not sure how I missed those)


My Final Ranking
1a) Alabama
1b) Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Notre Dame
5) Ohio State
6) Georgia
7) Florida
8) LSU
9) Central Florida
10) Texas
11) Washington State
12) Michigan
13) Kentucky
14) Washington
15) Fresno State

Alabama (-7) - Clemson (o/u 60)
Look, Alabama was better than everybody this year by a long shot; Clemson is still better than everyone else but I'd be pretty shocked if they beat Alabama. Alabama has now beaten Georgia and Oklahoma and is ramping up their play as they go; Clemson's first real game all year long was their drubbing of Notre Dame--and they looked good--but Alabama is starting to get some actual game day warm up just in time for their toughest foe of the season while Clemson looks like they haven't even started yet.  I like Alabama to win 34-20 (Alabama and the under).

2017-18 NCAA Championship

Alabama (-4) - Georgia (over/under 45.5)

I looked back over their schedules to see if the conference crossover in the records gives anything to compare/contrast. Nope, they pretty much look the same: they both blew out Tennessee and Vandy (yeah, they were both terrible this year), both lost to Auburn (how does Auburn feel right now knowing they already thumped both of these potential 'champions'?). The only difference is Alabama kinda struggled with Mississippi State where as Georgia did not but I don't find that particularly meaningful. 

Both teams played high profile early season matches: Alabama knocked Florida State's QB out for the year, which the Seminoles never came back from; and Georgia eked out a victory over Notre Dame, who I recall was actually the better team that night (surprised the Irish didn't pull it out). For the rest of the season, I was reasonably impressed with Notre Dame while Florida State just never got on track (though they did win a bowl). So in the non-conference, I thought Georgia had the slightly better showing. 

Alabama fumbled with conference foes LSU and Texas A&M (two of Saban's personal betes noires) and couldn't move on Auburn but otherwise destroyed everyone they played in classic Crimson Tide fashion. Georgia, too, struggled against Auburn's D (the first time they played) but otherwise ripped through everyone they played better than I've ever really seen. Seems like Georgia is overrated year after year, but this year they were actually legit while Alabama is everyone's default #1 though this year they didn't really do much to earn it (one tough game, which they lost). 

I was impressed that Georgia outlasted Oklahoma--especially in a shootout which I would've thought favored the Sooners. And I was impressed that Alabama so easily suffocated Clemson, who I thought would come in with more talent and plenty of confidence. 

My first thought is that this is just Alabama being Alabama while Georgia has overachieved and Monday night will be a typical Tide coronation. But Georgia has now played two good games in a row against two different types of opponents while Alabama has only one straight win against a team not much like Georgia. Giving Nick Saban a month to plan for Clemson is one thing, but they won't have any advantage over the Bulldogs. I'm so far more impressed with Georgia getting revenge on Auburn and then going toe to toe with Oklahoma than I am with Alabama...not playing in the SEC championship and dressing down a team that had no problem with Auburn. 

I'll take the points, I think Georgia moves the ball and controls the pace. I'll take Georgia and the under. Something like Georgia 24-20.

NBA Finals Game Seven

As of six games, the Cavs and Warriors have each scored 610 points...and yet none of the games was even close. Amazing. Warriors are a 5 point fave tonight and though each of the games has been decided by double digits, tonight's game is gonna be close, right? I mean this series has been fantastic, surely the last game will be one for the ages.

Tonight's game is a continuation of the thesis from the beginning: if Klay and Curry shoot the lights out, the Warriors will win comfortably; if not, the Cavs have a great chance to finish off the comeback.

Iguodala's got back spasms, Bogut is out, Curry has nagging injuries, Draymond is just nagging, Klay has yet to really have a good game, Barnes has been kinda terrible lately, Livingston needs to have a good game, Speight needs to score some points, I feel like Barbosa and Varejao have done more than their share and I can't see either of them doing much tonight.

Lebron's at his very best, Kyrie has shown the ability to score at will, Love is much maligned (but not that bad), Tristan has been a great physical presence and a monster on the boards, Smith has had moments but generally hasn't contributed much, Shumpert continues to un-impress me, Dellevadova has kinda disappeared, Frye needs to score some points tonight, Williams and Mozgov probably won't get much time tonight.

I thought the Warriors would win Game Five without Draymond. I thought the Warriors would find their shooting touch and win Game Six. Nope on both of those. Cavs are really rolling right now and the Warriors are scuffling. I still think the Warriors are the better team and at home I think Klay and Curry will score big points. I think Livingston will have an important role tonight, Speights needs to score off the bench. Iguodala has to suffer through but I don't see him being terribly effective on the offensive end.

Lebron will keep bringing it (though if he was better in Game Four, this might be over by now), Kyrie will overdo it, Smith will hit enough shots to be important, Tristan needs to get under Draymond's skin. For a surprise pivotal player, I'll go with Channing Frye: he had a few big games earlier in the playoffs but hasn't seen much of the floor in the Finals. I think he'll get some time tonight and if he's scoring buckets, he could spark the charge for the Cavs.

I'll go with the Warriors (-5). I've got no rooting interest, just a fan of the game. Man, I'm looking forward to it!

The Finals So Far

Tonight is Game Six in Cleveland, Warriors up 3-2, Draymond back from suspension, Bogut out for the rest of the Series. I think the Warriors wrap it up tonight.

Klay has been magnificent throughout the post-season but except for a 25 point performance in Game Four, he's been pretty ordinary (which is to say, way below Klay's ordinary) against the Cavs. Is he just tired from a long season (two long seasons with an appearance for Team USA in there)? Could be. Shooters rely on their legs and his legs must be pretty worn down by now. He's such a phenomenal shooter, just flings the ball toward the basket and expects it to go in. He built his rep on defense, which has been fine but nothing superlative this series. Klay torched the Rockets, carried the Warriors against the Blazers, was legendary against the Thunder, where has his game gone? I think he shows up big tonight, I expect old timey Klay, bombing 3's and running the floor like a champ.

Curry has also been pretty so-so so far in this series. In Game Three the Cavs stumbled onto the strategy of working on the defensive side (I thought it akin to running right at a scary defensive end rather than running away from him), but when the refs swallowed their whistles in the 2nd half of Game Four (and have yet to un-swallow them), that strategy kinda dried up and the Cavs were stuck watching Curry drop bombs on them. Rumors are that nagging injuries (shoulder, knee, thigh) are starting to catch up to Curry and that's probably true. He only needs one more win, though, to get his vacation started. Without Draymond in the last game, the Warriors' defense sagged in the middle and the Cavs were able to get hot, which means Curry has to work more than usual and with less profit. Tonight they'll be without Bogut but that's an absence they can weather a little better (expect to see Ezeli shooting lot of FT's tonight), as long as Draymond's back to plug the lane and get the transition going. Curry needs to hit shots like his old self, if he falters the Cavs will hang around. I think he will hit tonight. I think the Curry-Klay-Draymon trio comes up big back in Cleveland.

Draymond, for my money, was the team's MVP this season: his work on both ends makes the effortless awesomeness of Curry and Klay possible. Without Draymond those two have to work harder on defense and harder to get good shots, they're still good but their ceilings are quite a bit lower. The trouble with Draymond is that his fiery temper is one technical away from getting him run out of this series. In Game Four, when all was lost, Lebron hit the emergency switch (which I think he truly wanted to avoid and realized he couldn't) and got under Draymond's skin resulting in a suspension for Game Five. The Cavs will be coming at Draymon hard tonight--HARD--and he better keep it together. Without Bogut, Draymond will be expected to do even more than usual (especially in the first few minutes of each half) and if he falters the Cavs will pounce. But I think Draymond holds it together, indeed, I think he'll be at his absolute best tonight, leaving the pundits to argue over who was the MVP of this series.

Bogut has been his usual solid self, thought he was particularly effective in Game Two. He twisted his knee in the last game and has been ruled out for the Series. He doesn't play a lot of minutes any more but he still plays good D and is a steadying force. He will be missed though his absence isn't catastrophic for this team. Ezeli isn't as steady, isn't any better as an FT shooter and is more likely to foul out. Draymond and Iguodala will have to do more tonight.

Iguodala has been good but not great. The conundrum of the Warriors series is that really no one has been great so far. They've all been pretty good which has been good enough for three wins out of five but someone will have to be a big dog to get one more win. It might be Iguodala. I think he should mark Kyrie tonight. Let Lebron do his thing and put the clamp on Kyrie, make Love or Jefferson or Smith make big plays. If Iguodala shuts down Kyrie, I think the Warriors win easily. And if Iguodala scores effectively tonight that might be the same thing.

Livingston was just untouchable in Games One and Two and though he's slipped back down to earth somewhat, he's been really good in this Series and really important to the Warriors' chances of winning. The key to tonight's game is Klay and Curry regaining their form and going for big points, but Livingston has a part to play in keeping the Cavs off balance and keeping the scoring going. If Livingston effectively attacks the lane, Klay and Curry will get better shots and the Cav defenders become more foul prone.

Barbosa played great minutes in Golden State but back in Cleveland its up to Varejao to get the important minutes off the bench. Varejao was always a pretty good player (the poor man's Joakim Noah), it was his spotty health (and ridiculously huge contract) that has held him back in recent years. But he only needs ten good minutes tonight to make a big difference. Keeping Love off the boards, getting an extra foul on Tristan, stifling Kyrie once or twice, making a coupla good passes, if he can do those things a few times in this game, it'll have a big impact. Also look for McAdoo to get some important minutes.

Lebron has been great, as usual. That said, I thought he let Game Four get away from him: he attacked the basket well but he was always looking to pass rather than finish and the Cavs did a great job of getting the Warriors in foul trouble in the 1st half (there were a few plays were Klay was afraid to play defense) and then abandoned that aggressiveness in the 2nd half. Weird game. And when it was spiraling out of control, Lebron had to take his opportunity to get in Draymond's head. I don't think he wanted to do it but the chance to get Draymond ruled out for a game or two was too great to pass up, so he let Draymond's typical taunts wind him up when he would normally just ignore them and goaded Draymond into making a mistake. Worth noting that that option is still in the table in tonight's game: one more tech and Draymond is suspended again. I think he'll attack Curry and Draymond as much as possible. And while he'd like to be his playmaking self, I think he needs to score 30 at least tonight. And I reckon he will.

Kyrie was bananas in Game Five, very Klay-like from beginning to end. He knows he can do that so I think he'll try to do it again. Double edge sword: the upside is Klay-like setting records with his efficiency, downside is Westbrook-like overplaying, overdribbling, overshooting and forgetting his teammates. Will we get Klay Kyrie tonight or Russell Kyrie? I'm voting for the latter. I think he gets hot early but shoots himself out and tries too hard, forcing Lebron to pick up the slack. Once that happens, the Warriors go into lights-out mode and finish the game comfortably in the 4th quarter. We'll see.

Love has been much maligned in this series and while he deserves some of that blame, he doesn't deserve as much as he's getting. The consensus is that he's lowering his own value but this is a hot take culture: if he goes for 20 tonight, everyone'll think he's the Series MVP. Love has been generally ineffective on both sides but he hasn't been awful. He's slow on defensive switches and not a great perimeter defender but he's gonna have opportunities to make plays and knock down shots. If he does those things, the Cavs will hang around to the end; if he doesn't, he'll be putting his house up for sale by the end of the week. (Honestly, I say either way, he won't be back next year; he's not a good fit, he never was--in fact, don't you think the Cavs could really use Andrew Wiggins in this series?)

Tristan Thompson has played well this series, showing better footwork and perimeter D than I would've thought possible. His FT% is deathly but he's solid around the rim and I expect him to make plays against Ezeli tonight. The Cavs need everything they can get, Tristan's rebounds and D will be impactful. He'll have to punish Draymond and help Love whenever possible.

JR Smith is a puzzle: he can go from brilliant to non-existent and back as fast as any player I can think of. In Game One he played 37 minutes and had 3 FGA. 3! Dude, what is out there for except scoring? If he's only gonna get 3 shots in 37 minutes then either something is seriously wrong with the gameplan or he's having a monumentally bad night. He was good in Game Three but otherwise hasn't given the Cavs much this series. I expect Lebron to look for Smith early tonight, if he gets going he can be the difference in keeping the series alive. Otherwise, he needs to D up Klay like his life depends on it.

Richard Jefferson has been a surprise in this series, he's a really nifty scorer around the rim. Unfortunately in Game Five he became turnover prone whereas before he was quite sure handed with the ball. He needs to keep his nerve tonight and score points off the bench, because I don't think Lebron + Kyrie will be enough tonight. If he makes buckets, the Cavs will hang around.

Dellavedova was a hero in last year's finals, playing waaaaaay over his shoes and was a top quality agitator for most of that series. This year, with Kyrie back, Delly has mostly disappeared (his agitator role was usurped by Varejao to the tune of Delly getting called for a foul that he was in fact the victim of), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few important minutes off the bench tonight. The attack on Curry and Draymond needs to come from anyone and everyone and Delly can be quite annoying out there, and that'll be his job. He may not score any points but he's got 6 fouls to give and I expect to see him giving them.

A coupla weeks ago I heard David Thorpe on a podcast talk some serious shit about Iman Shumpert's game. I gotta admit ever since then I've watched Shumpert with a different eye. Thorpe's right, dude, Shumpert kinda sucks. He can't even dribble with confidence. His defensive effort is solid but his footwork isn't great and he's not much of a rebounder and offensively he can't be relied on for anything. Seriously, man, watch him. He's pretty terrible. I guess he'll get his shot against Klay but if he's getting torched, expect him to shift over to Ezeli-hacking.

I'm not sure when Mozgov disappeared from the Cavs philosophy but I can't help thinking he's better than they think. He's so far out of the rotation now that I doubt he'll play big minutes ever again but he can agitate and pester, he might get some minutes tonight to hack on Ezeli or frustrate Draymond. And Mo Williams...I forgot about that guy.

I expect the Cavs to return to the strategy of wearing out Curry on defense, to go hard at Draymond early and often and to foul Ezeli as much as possible.

I expect the Warriors to stifle Kyrie, get masterful bench minutes and make buckets.

If both of my expectations bear out, I think the Warriors' scoring will be too much. The Warriors were money night after night this season and though they've been quite a bit less sharp in the playoffs, they're still quite capable of putting up big big numbers. Bogut's out and Draymond might have to tone down his game a touch, but I think the scorers will score and the Series ends tonight.

NCAA Championship

Alabama (-7) - Clemson (o/u 50.5)

Alabama (13-1) played 12 bowl participants this year (only Charleston Southern and Louisiana-Monroe failed to make a bowl). 8 won their bowl games (Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Miss St, Auburn) and 4 lost (Middle Tennessee St, Texas A&M, Florida, Michigan St). Clemson (14-0) played only 7 bowl participants this year. Of those only Louisville prevailed in their bowl appearance (Notre Dame, Miami, NC St, Florida St, North Carolina, Oklahoma all got bounced).

Right off the bat: Alabama played more good opponents than Clemson did. But neither team blows people out, both do just enough to win. Clemson has a more prolific offense, Alabama grinds people down with toughness and a paucity of mistakes. I think Oklahoma and Michigan State were the lesser squads in this year's playoff, both angling in right at the last moment, so I take little from the semi-final contests.

I watched a lot of NCAA football this year but other than the semi-final game I don't think I watched Alabama all year long, while I watched Clemson beat Notre Dame, Miami and Florida St. All I've got is gut: Alabama will win but I like Clemson to keep it close. The score will be low, something like 20-17.  I like Clemson (+7) and the under (50.5). Book it, punters!
  
(For the future: I think both teams have a good shot at being in the top 4 this time next year again. The talk that Saban is going pro doesn't sway me, he's got a good thing in 'Bama and the money would have reeeeeeeaaaaaaal good to move him off his piece of gridiron heaven. Clemson's recruiting has been top notch recently and it looks like that will maintain. The ACC looks kinda soft to my eye (Mark Richt to Miami doesn't get me all jazzed, long thought that guy was overrated) and if Jimbo Fisher gets poached from Florida State, then Clemson has a clear path back to the playoff for the foreseeable future. Notre Dame is moving in the right direction, surely Urban Meyer won't squander another fine class at Ohio State and LSU needs a warpath kinda season to save the dangling Les Miles, throw in 'Bama and Clemson and that's a good start at next year's final four)

NBA Finals (Final)

Going into the Warrior-Cav series, I saw the matchup through two separate prisms: what Lebron endured with the Heat against the Spurs last year and how the Warriors handled the Rockets in the previous round. Turns out it was a replay of the Warrors-Grizzlies match in the 2nd round: Warriors shaky for the first three games, then in overdrive for the next three games.

There was no way the Cavs were gonna win this series. In basketball having the best player is a hell of an advantage but even that gets neutralized over time: the advantage is in the efficiency that one all-world dude can bring but when he has to do EVERYTHING then the numbers suffer and cracks appear. James Harden carried the Rockets to the Conference Finals by himself but the Warriors were just too deep; ditto for Lebron carrying the Cavs.

Iguodala as MVP is a fine choice, I reckon. Not sure how Curry got zero votes and personally I would've gone with Lebron. But Lebron was lackluster in game 6 (I'll say it: that was the quietest 32/15/9 you'll ever see) and Iguodala definitely had an impact on the series (though you could say the same for Draymond, Klay and Livingston too). 

Going forward the Cavs look to integrate Love and Kyrie, re-up Tristan and Mozgov (and move on from Smith, Shumpert and Dellavedova) and come back stronger next year. They'll be over the cap (not my problem) and I can't help wondering who the coach will be (Mark Jackson? John Calipari? David Blatt? (heh heh, jk)) but the Cavs should dominate the East next year (though the Heat, Pacers, Celtics and Wizards all look interesting). 

The Warriors seem to be in dynasty mode but I'm not so sure. They have to get rid of David Lee, they might have to get rid of Maurice Speights too and they might still want to move Iguodala after that. The team will still be really good but they had amazing depth (and health) this year and when that starts to slip, injuries creep in, losing streaks start to happen--I'm not saying its all over for the Warriors, but I don't see how they could be this good again next year. (Well, this Warrior team is one of the single best teams I ever saw, can't imagine anybody being that good next year) 

Ohio St v. Oregon

Growing up in Kentucky I was not (as you can imagine) much of a college football fan.  UK was never any good and while I loved the NFL, watching the college game never made any sense to me.  There seemed to be a handful of teams wildly better than their pitiful opponents which made it not much fun to watch and the system to determine the champion just seemed capricious at best.  Somewhere in the last 10 years or so I changed my tune.  I guess I just grew up and had nothing better to do on Saturday than watch 'amateur' football.  I grew to love watching the contests and I embraced the changes to the old system.  Personally I dug the BCS, for all its flaws I think it generally did a pretty good job of filtering down to two final contestants.  And we all knew that it would eventually lead to a tournament.  Its a 4 team tourney now (all I need) but soon enough it'll get to 8 teams and I think in the end it'll get up to 16 (a long slog through the month of December).

In the old BCS system we would've ended up with Alabama and Florida State in the final, neither of whom survived their playoff tests.  I watched a lot of Florida State this year (thank you, ESPN3) and they never dominated, doing only enough to come out on top, the most uninspiring undefeated team since that BYU team that won championship back in the 1980s (which is kinda where all this BCS stuff came from, if you think about it).  So I'm glad Oregon and Ohio State were matriculated into the system especially since it feel like we've been waiting 10 years for an Alabama-Oregon final...well, that didn't happen this year either.

Oregon ripped through the Seminoles just as I thought they would.  Some games are predictable, some games catch you by surprise, but Oregon's semi-final win over Florida State was in the latter camp. If I was a betting man (which strangely enough I am not) I would've thought nothing of putting money on the Ducks in the game.  I'm not as confident in tonight's tilt because Ohio State has been surprising me non-stop lately.  I didn't think they'd beat Wisconsin with a 3rd string QB and they won 59-0!  I wasn't sure they'd be able to get past Alabama in the trenches but they handled themselves just fine.  I feel like the Buckeyes can't hang with Oregon's team speed and the onslaught of the Duck attack...but, I dunno, maybe.

This game should be a good one, a great kickoff to the college football tournament we all knew was gonna happen someday.  Both offenses look unstoppable, its a matter of which defense can plug the dyke long enough to compile more points.  It'd be interesting if this turned into a sludgefest, a good ol' fashioned field position battle, but I don't see that happening.  These teams both score a lot of points and I think they'll both score a lot tonight; I can easily see the losing team scoring 35 points.  I've been going against the Buckeyes and losing but I'm gonna do it one more time: I'll take Oregon (-6.5) and the over (74.5).

Playoff Prediction: Spurs in 5

6.5.14 -- Game 1 tips off in a coupla hours, gotta get this in.

The Spurs have won 8 straight at home since losing Game 2 to the Mavs in the 1st round.  The Mavs beat the Spurs 3 times, something the Blazers and Thunder were unable to do (and I'm guessing the Heat won't either).  But that is a unique grudge match unparalleled with the other opponents (even Lebron).  At this time last year I thought the Spurs were gonna beat the Heat mostly because Tony Parker was playing out of his mind.  I thought Parker was primed to remind everybody that he was winning rings in this league before Lebron and has long been a more bankable winner than most of the big stars of today (Carmelo, Durant, Aldridge, Howard, Harden, Blake & Paul, Steph Curry and co. and on and on).  He won Game 1 in Miami by himself but then tweaked his ankle in Game 3 (3?) and wasn't the same for the rest of the Series. Well, it didn't work out but I'm not ready to say I was wrong.  I've thought it over and I agree with myself...with this caveat: if Parker stays healthy I think the Spurs are actually waaaay better than the Heat.  If Parker is hobbled then its a much closer contest and Lebron alone would be tough to bet against.  A healthy Parker keeps the Spur offense moving and when it moves, they win.  The Spurs generally only lose when they don't play well (except against Dirk for some reason), the Spurs rarely lost this year when they played their best basketball.  With a healthy Tony Parker I fully expect the Spurs to play their best every time they take the floor.

The Heat are a mysterious team to me: so far this year, they have yet to play hard.  Lebron had an excellent year for a basketball player, but for a basketball player named 'Lebron' it was only an okay season.  Of the rest of the team only Chris Bosh made a noticeable jump from last year.  The rest of the supporting cast is still okay, still reliable (if overpaid), can still be very useful in service to a horse like Lebron.  But the team itself cruise controlled right to the #2 seed in the east, breezed through the first opponent like tackling dummies, went through the second playoff opponent like traffic cones and were way better than their third playoff opponent in 4.5 of the 6 games.  Are the Heat rested and ready?  Or does the ease with which they vanquished the pitiful East mean they can fall victim to the slightest challenge?  I think Lebron alone is quite capable of winning a championship and Lebron with Bosh is more than enough.  3 pointers, defense and no turnovers is all those 2 guys need from a supporting cast to go deep in the playoffs. But the Spurs, man....the m'f'n Spurs.  The Spurs are Clubber Lang in this story.  The Spurs can beat the Spurs and Lebron can be there to scoop up a title--it happened last year, it can happen again.  But I don't think the Heat can beat the Spurs.

(Random observation about Erik Spoelstra: I like him. The knee-jerk reaction is to slag him off as lucky, as in the right place at the right time.  He drives a nice car because daddy gave him a nice car, not because he earned it.  But, hey, man, he hasn't wrapped that nice car around any trees in the last 4 years.  4 straight conference titles is getting it done whatever your birthright.  But more than just thumbing my nose at the naysayers, I like him.  I like his style, I like his rotations, I like his understanding of metrics but with deeper understanding of his best players, the guy's got for-real x's and o's out there, he's more than just an ego-masseur, he's not some mealy Medvedev to Pat Riley's Putin, he's bonafide, he's beyond reproach....for now)

Yeah, I think I'm gonna do it: I'm going Spurs in 5.  I think the Spurs win the first two games in San Antonio, the Heat win game 3 in Miami and then it all comes down to game 4; if the Heat win, this series goes at least 6 games, if the Spurs win then I think they take game 5 at home.  I think the Spurs are more likely to win on the road than the Heat are.  There it is.  My initial thought was Spurs in 7 (i'd love to see 7 games of this matchup) and I'm very sympathetic to Heat in 6 (if they win Games 1 or 2 in San Antonio then that's the scenario).  As Parker goes, the Spurs go.  With Parker healthy the ball keeps moving and when the ball keeps moving the Spurs score with great efficiency.  They score more than their opponent.  Even when that opponent is Lebron James and the two-time defending champs.