Minimal on the commentary, just the look ahead.
Cavs over Raptors in 7. (I wouldn't be super shocked to see the Raptors knock off the Cavs...except that, yeah, I would)
Wizards over Celtics in 6 (I think the Wizards have more good games then the Celtics, not that they're a wildly better team, I just think their style will yield more consistent offense in a playoff atmosphere.
Warriors over (Clippers) in 5. (Yeah, it doesn't even matter who the Warriors play)
Rockets over Spurs in 6. (Most efficient player beats most efficient team)
Sunday, April 30, 2017
NBA PLayoffs (1st round)
Playoff's progress.
I said Celtics over Bulls in 4. Bulls shocked the world by winning the first two in Boston and surprised no one by losing the next two back in Chicago. Celtics in 6 was easy to see after you realized the DWade-Rondo Bulls Renaissance lasted exactly two games. Since I can't stand watching the Bulls I forgot how damn good Jimmy Butler (he's damn good) and the Celtics really had nothing to stop the mighty Robin Lopez but it never felt like Wade, Canaan, MCW, Mirotic, Portis, etc, were ever gonna bring enough offense to counter the Celtics whipping the ball around. The Celtics still have problems but that's not why they dropped those first two to the Bulls.
I said Cavs over Pacers in 4 because Lebron likes to hit the ground running in the playoffs and the Pacers looked done, man, like done being in the same Arena with each other kinda done. It would've taken a super human effort from Paul George and a comet hitting the city of Cleveland for the Pacers to have a random shot of winning even a game in this series. Yup, Cavs sweep was a pretty easy call.
I had Raptors over Bucks in 7, Though the Bucks gave the Raptors an early punch in the face in Game One, the Series kinda went where I thought it would go: the Raptors are the better team but sometimes it takes them a while to remember that. The Bucks are young, dumb, total wild card, they had the element of surprise, but the Raptors are a deep veteran team where everybody knows the role. The Bucks are the coolest sloppy young team this side of Denver. Raptors in 6 (where they really tried to give the game back at the end!) was a slight over achievement to my mind.
I had Wizards over Hawks in 7. I thought the home team would win every game in this series, thought the two teams were close with the Wizards being enough more explosive on offense that they'd take Game Seven. The games didn't go quite the way I thought they would but it was by no means a blowout.Similar to the Raptors, I thought the Wizards over achieved by taking the decisive game early and on the road. Good for Wall and co., they've had playoff success in the past but no one gives them any credit for it.
I had the Warriors in 5, thinking the Blazers would have one lights-out night and the Warriors would rollover for a night up in Portland (probably Game Three). Ehh, didn't happen. Turns out the Blazers playing their best game all year long wouldn't cover the spread against the Warriors even on an off-night. Warriors are getting their groove on, think they're gonna roll over everyone they face.
I had the Spurs in 4 but I also kinda thought it could go 7. My first thought was the Spurs are better than the team that swept the Grizzlies last year, so why wouldn't they breeze through Memphis again?Then again, the Grizzlies had Jordan Farmar (*) starting for them in the playoffs last year. The Grizz still kinda got grit and grind but isn't the Grit and Grind era spookily similar to CP/Blake/Deandre in LA? I like the new coach with the old players but they were never enough back in the day and they're getting even less enough every year that goes by. The Spurs are the better team and it wouldn't have surprised me if they won in 4, but it wouldn't have surprised me if the Grizz dialed it up and pushed them to Game Seven. Spurs taking Game Six on the road is kind of baller.
I had Rockets over Thunder in 6, they won in 5. OKC had chances of slowing down the Rockets but only enough for a game or two. I thought it'd be 2, it was only 1. I really believe in the Rockets this year, especially in the playoffs, I think they have a chance to get even better in the post-season. And the Thunder were nice but they never consistently did anything, so it isn't that Russell clogs the offense or that the supporting cast isn't any good, it's just that they don't do anything in a dominant fashion so they have to work so hard for everything. Rockets don't have to work that hard, they're gonna score way exerting less effort. I love Westbrook and I'd love for the Thunder to move on but I don't see this team going deep in the playoffs any time soon. Rockets finishing it in 5 was pretty smart for them, an impressive 1st round.
I had Clippers over Jazz in 7 only because the Clippers would be the home team in Game Seven. I went with 7 because I thought the home team would win each game but the Jazz are 2-1 in LA and 1-2 at home, which is kinda surprising and not surprising at all. The Clippers are without Blake (whose absence inspired the Clippers in Game Three but caught up to them in Game Five), but they tend to play better without Blake (my heart goes out to the next Clipper equipment manager who accidentally makes that realization out loud) so I'm inclined to stick to 7 games. Incidentally, I think CP3 and Deandre are juiced in, I can see Doc and Austin hanging around (although I can see them both splitting too), 50/50 on Crawford, but I think Blake, Reddick and everyone else is out of there. (Make room for Melo) Meanwhile, the Jazz are a GM's dream: drafted Hayward, Burks, Gobert Exum, Lyles, got Favors in a blockbuster, craftily added Hill, Ingles, Joe Johnson, Diaw, Mack. Perfect mix of youth and vet, a really well-structured, well-crafted squad. I took the home team in Seven at the beginning, I might as well stick with that now.
* (Jordan Farmar!)
I said Celtics over Bulls in 4. Bulls shocked the world by winning the first two in Boston and surprised no one by losing the next two back in Chicago. Celtics in 6 was easy to see after you realized the DWade-Rondo Bulls Renaissance lasted exactly two games. Since I can't stand watching the Bulls I forgot how damn good Jimmy Butler (he's damn good) and the Celtics really had nothing to stop the mighty Robin Lopez but it never felt like Wade, Canaan, MCW, Mirotic, Portis, etc, were ever gonna bring enough offense to counter the Celtics whipping the ball around. The Celtics still have problems but that's not why they dropped those first two to the Bulls.
I said Cavs over Pacers in 4 because Lebron likes to hit the ground running in the playoffs and the Pacers looked done, man, like done being in the same Arena with each other kinda done. It would've taken a super human effort from Paul George and a comet hitting the city of Cleveland for the Pacers to have a random shot of winning even a game in this series. Yup, Cavs sweep was a pretty easy call.
I had Raptors over Bucks in 7, Though the Bucks gave the Raptors an early punch in the face in Game One, the Series kinda went where I thought it would go: the Raptors are the better team but sometimes it takes them a while to remember that. The Bucks are young, dumb, total wild card, they had the element of surprise, but the Raptors are a deep veteran team where everybody knows the role. The Bucks are the coolest sloppy young team this side of Denver. Raptors in 6 (where they really tried to give the game back at the end!) was a slight over achievement to my mind.
I had Wizards over Hawks in 7. I thought the home team would win every game in this series, thought the two teams were close with the Wizards being enough more explosive on offense that they'd take Game Seven. The games didn't go quite the way I thought they would but it was by no means a blowout.Similar to the Raptors, I thought the Wizards over achieved by taking the decisive game early and on the road. Good for Wall and co., they've had playoff success in the past but no one gives them any credit for it.
I had the Warriors in 5, thinking the Blazers would have one lights-out night and the Warriors would rollover for a night up in Portland (probably Game Three). Ehh, didn't happen. Turns out the Blazers playing their best game all year long wouldn't cover the spread against the Warriors even on an off-night. Warriors are getting their groove on, think they're gonna roll over everyone they face.
I had the Spurs in 4 but I also kinda thought it could go 7. My first thought was the Spurs are better than the team that swept the Grizzlies last year, so why wouldn't they breeze through Memphis again?Then again, the Grizzlies had Jordan Farmar (*) starting for them in the playoffs last year. The Grizz still kinda got grit and grind but isn't the Grit and Grind era spookily similar to CP/Blake/Deandre in LA? I like the new coach with the old players but they were never enough back in the day and they're getting even less enough every year that goes by. The Spurs are the better team and it wouldn't have surprised me if they won in 4, but it wouldn't have surprised me if the Grizz dialed it up and pushed them to Game Seven. Spurs taking Game Six on the road is kind of baller.
I had Rockets over Thunder in 6, they won in 5. OKC had chances of slowing down the Rockets but only enough for a game or two. I thought it'd be 2, it was only 1. I really believe in the Rockets this year, especially in the playoffs, I think they have a chance to get even better in the post-season. And the Thunder were nice but they never consistently did anything, so it isn't that Russell clogs the offense or that the supporting cast isn't any good, it's just that they don't do anything in a dominant fashion so they have to work so hard for everything. Rockets don't have to work that hard, they're gonna score way exerting less effort. I love Westbrook and I'd love for the Thunder to move on but I don't see this team going deep in the playoffs any time soon. Rockets finishing it in 5 was pretty smart for them, an impressive 1st round.
I had Clippers over Jazz in 7 only because the Clippers would be the home team in Game Seven. I went with 7 because I thought the home team would win each game but the Jazz are 2-1 in LA and 1-2 at home, which is kinda surprising and not surprising at all. The Clippers are without Blake (whose absence inspired the Clippers in Game Three but caught up to them in Game Five), but they tend to play better without Blake (my heart goes out to the next Clipper equipment manager who accidentally makes that realization out loud) so I'm inclined to stick to 7 games. Incidentally, I think CP3 and Deandre are juiced in, I can see Doc and Austin hanging around (although I can see them both splitting too), 50/50 on Crawford, but I think Blake, Reddick and everyone else is out of there. (Make room for Melo) Meanwhile, the Jazz are a GM's dream: drafted Hayward, Burks, Gobert Exum, Lyles, got Favors in a blockbuster, craftily added Hill, Ingles, Joe Johnson, Diaw, Mack. Perfect mix of youth and vet, a really well-structured, well-crafted squad. I took the home team in Seven at the beginning, I might as well stick with that now.
* (Jordan Farmar!)
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
NBA Predictions
(On Saturday, April 15 I meant to put up a blog post about my NBA playoff predictions at the time but I did not because...I been busy, man. I'll omit commentary which by this point would just be dated rather than useful and just record naked predictions. I submit this for posterity to give continuity to future blog posts. Thank you)
1st round
Celtics over Bulls in 4
Cavs over Pacers in 4
Raptors over Bucks in 7
Wizards over Hawks in 7
Warriors over Blazers in 5
Spurs over Grizzlies in 4 (had a lot of scenarios for that matchup)
Rockets over Thunder in 6
Clippers over Jazz in 7
2nd round
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 7
Warriors over Clippers in 4
Rockets over Spurs in 6
Conference Finals
Cavs over Wizards in 7
Warriors over Rockets in 5
Finals
Warriors over Cavs in 4 (by the time we get to the end, the Warriors will be grooving, Cavs will be rickety struggling, Warriors will turn the lights out quick on Kyrie and Lebron)
1st round
Celtics over Bulls in 4
Cavs over Pacers in 4
Raptors over Bucks in 7
Wizards over Hawks in 7
Warriors over Blazers in 5
Spurs over Grizzlies in 4 (had a lot of scenarios for that matchup)
Rockets over Thunder in 6
Clippers over Jazz in 7
2nd round
Wizards over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Raptors in 7
Warriors over Clippers in 4
Rockets over Spurs in 6
Conference Finals
Cavs over Wizards in 7
Warriors over Rockets in 5
Finals
Warriors over Cavs in 4 (by the time we get to the end, the Warriors will be grooving, Cavs will be rickety struggling, Warriors will turn the lights out quick on Kyrie and Lebron)
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
NBA Playoff Predictions (Round One)
Yeah, I'm about 4 days too late for this post but I wrote (most of) it on Saturday, so I'm totally legit. I swear. What has changed in the last few days?
Celtics over Bulls
I think the Bulls are terrible. The Celtics are hard working, fun, yet utterly unlikely to win the East. The Celtics have matchup problems that will doom them eventually. But for now I think the Bulls are a team they match up well with. Celtics in 5. (Okay, after two games in that series, I am looking decidedly wrong. For years the Bulls were an interesting collection of talent that I always thought would pull through and never really did; I was fine with ditching Joakim and D Rose and Pau and even Taj but replacing them with D Wade, Rondo and nobody was not a step in the right direction. But suddenly they look like the mismatched collection of vets and rooks that could be really dangerous. And the Celtics look like a team lacking that one big star (that everyone knows they lack), look like a collection of interesting players that work hard because they're not as talented. Well, in the post-season talent wins out. Am I giving up on the Celtics? Aw, hell, no. I still think this Bulls team stinks and if you think of this as a battle between Stevens and Hoiberg...ehh, you ready to throw in with Bulls? I'm not. Obviously the Celtics won't win in 4 (my Saturday prediction), I still think they're the better team, I still think the Bulls are the lesser team and the Celtics will figure it out.
Cavs over Pacers
Lebron don't miss around in the early rounds. Check it: he rarely gives up more than 1 game. I think the Pacers a mess (my big disappointment team of the year) and couldn't punch their way out of Peyton Manning's spine. Cavs in 4 (Yup, I'll stick with that)
Raptors over Bucks
Yes, I was a little surprised by Game 1. Not super surprised, the Raptors do start slow in the post-season. But they are the better team and I assume that over the course of seven games, they'll figure it out. But the Bucks have nothing to lose and the funnest team around. Not super shocked that the Bucks won Game 1 but the decisive fashion with which they dispatched the Raptors was eye-opening. (Aside: Obviously my great regret of not watching as much basketball this year was missing out on a classic Antetokounpo maturation season) I still think the Raptors are the better team, the more complete team, the more mature team and will get it together by Game 7.
Wizards over Hawks
These Hawks just aren't the same Hawks. No Korver, no Teague, no Horford, just DWight and Dennis Shroeder? No, I ain't feeling that and I was never the Coach Bud fan that most others are. The Wizards are a haphazard kinda team, I feel like they're better (they just won't always play better), and ultimately they'll get it done. Wizards in 7
Warriors over Blazers
I'll give the Blazers Game 3 back in Portland but that's it. The Warriors are ready to roll and the Blazers are the first to get rolled. Warriors in 5.
Spurs over Grizzlies
This series two games in gives me pause from my original prediction. I thought the Spurs would run through the Grizz in 4 just like they did last year. But the Grizz are waaaaaaaay better this time around so how could I expect the grit and grind just to give in so quick? Yes, the Spurs are up 2-0 but I still think it'll be harder than they're expecting. I would've taken the Spurs in 4, now I'll say 6.
Rockets over Thunder
Fun series, Harden and Westbrook are gonna be great. I just think the Harden team is rounder, fuller, more together than the Westbrook team. I like OKC, I was impressed with the season they had, the season Westbrook had, but I still think the Rockets are the better team. Rockets in 6 (yeah, the Rockets win it in OKC).
Clippers over Jazz
The coinflippiest series of the 1st round. I'm going with the home team in Game 7, if the Jazz had the home court I would've chosen them, but the Clipps got it so I'm going with them. I like the Jazz, I like how they're growing together, thought they jumped the gun with bringing in vets but by the post-season the vets are just seasoning rather than running the show. The Clippers are the same kind of good they've always been and the same kind of bad. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Jazz dusted the Clippers off but I was a little surprised to see the Jazz take Game 1. Yeah, I had it going seven but I had the home team going 7-0. I went Clippers in 7, could just as easily be Jazz in 7 (or 6).
Celtics over Bulls
I think the Bulls are terrible. The Celtics are hard working, fun, yet utterly unlikely to win the East. The Celtics have matchup problems that will doom them eventually. But for now I think the Bulls are a team they match up well with. Celtics in 5. (Okay, after two games in that series, I am looking decidedly wrong. For years the Bulls were an interesting collection of talent that I always thought would pull through and never really did; I was fine with ditching Joakim and D Rose and Pau and even Taj but replacing them with D Wade, Rondo and nobody was not a step in the right direction. But suddenly they look like the mismatched collection of vets and rooks that could be really dangerous. And the Celtics look like a team lacking that one big star (that everyone knows they lack), look like a collection of interesting players that work hard because they're not as talented. Well, in the post-season talent wins out. Am I giving up on the Celtics? Aw, hell, no. I still think this Bulls team stinks and if you think of this as a battle between Stevens and Hoiberg...ehh, you ready to throw in with Bulls? I'm not. Obviously the Celtics won't win in 4 (my Saturday prediction), I still think they're the better team, I still think the Bulls are the lesser team and the Celtics will figure it out.
Cavs over Pacers
Lebron don't miss around in the early rounds. Check it: he rarely gives up more than 1 game. I think the Pacers a mess (my big disappointment team of the year) and couldn't punch their way out of Peyton Manning's spine. Cavs in 4 (Yup, I'll stick with that)
Raptors over Bucks
Yes, I was a little surprised by Game 1. Not super surprised, the Raptors do start slow in the post-season. But they are the better team and I assume that over the course of seven games, they'll figure it out. But the Bucks have nothing to lose and the funnest team around. Not super shocked that the Bucks won Game 1 but the decisive fashion with which they dispatched the Raptors was eye-opening. (Aside: Obviously my great regret of not watching as much basketball this year was missing out on a classic Antetokounpo maturation season) I still think the Raptors are the better team, the more complete team, the more mature team and will get it together by Game 7.
Wizards over Hawks
These Hawks just aren't the same Hawks. No Korver, no Teague, no Horford, just DWight and Dennis Shroeder? No, I ain't feeling that and I was never the Coach Bud fan that most others are. The Wizards are a haphazard kinda team, I feel like they're better (they just won't always play better), and ultimately they'll get it done. Wizards in 7
Warriors over Blazers
I'll give the Blazers Game 3 back in Portland but that's it. The Warriors are ready to roll and the Blazers are the first to get rolled. Warriors in 5.
Spurs over Grizzlies
This series two games in gives me pause from my original prediction. I thought the Spurs would run through the Grizz in 4 just like they did last year. But the Grizz are waaaaaaaay better this time around so how could I expect the grit and grind just to give in so quick? Yes, the Spurs are up 2-0 but I still think it'll be harder than they're expecting. I would've taken the Spurs in 4, now I'll say 6.
Rockets over Thunder
Fun series, Harden and Westbrook are gonna be great. I just think the Harden team is rounder, fuller, more together than the Westbrook team. I like OKC, I was impressed with the season they had, the season Westbrook had, but I still think the Rockets are the better team. Rockets in 6 (yeah, the Rockets win it in OKC).
Clippers over Jazz
The coinflippiest series of the 1st round. I'm going with the home team in Game 7, if the Jazz had the home court I would've chosen them, but the Clipps got it so I'm going with them. I like the Jazz, I like how they're growing together, thought they jumped the gun with bringing in vets but by the post-season the vets are just seasoning rather than running the show. The Clippers are the same kind of good they've always been and the same kind of bad. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Jazz dusted the Clippers off but I was a little surprised to see the Jazz take Game 1. Yeah, I had it going seven but I had the home team going 7-0. I went Clippers in 7, could just as easily be Jazz in 7 (or 6).
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