2018-19 NBA Finals (Game Six)

So far...
Bucks over Pistons (4)/Warriors over Clippers (6)
Raptors over Magic (5)/Nuggets over Spurs (7)
Sixers over Nets (5)/Blazers over Thunder (5)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Rockets over Jazz (5)

Bucks over Celtics (5)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Raptors over Sixers (7)/Blazers over Nuggets (7)

Raptors over Bucks (6)/Warriors over Blazers (4)

Then...

Warriors 109-118 Raptors
The Warriors were okay, the Raptors were really good, got big offense from Siakam and Gasol to cover up that Kawhi was actually pretty mediocre for the first three quarters. Good win for the Raptors at home, as I predicted. Some people were so amazed by this result and were quickly selling their Warriors stock, suggesting the dynasty was already over. But why? Shit, man, the Warriors had a long lay off (after dusting off the Blazers) to ponder how to get by without Durant, while the Raptors were starting their first Finals appearance at home after finding themselves in a tough series over the Bucks, arguably the best team in the league. This result was not a shock to me.

Warriors 109-104 Raptors
Warriors bounce back, control the offense, played good defense, got good minutes out of Cousins (good not great, let's relax on his performance) and generally looked like the team that swept the Blazers. The Raptors were not bad, Kawhi was actually pretty good, but the supporting cast didn't shine out big like the game before, so the Warriors were able to build and keep the lead. Again, to me, this was not unexpected: I thought they'd be split after two games, I kinda figured the Raptors would strike first and then the Warriors would strike back, and go on a run...

Raptors 123-109 Warriors
...Expect that the run did not happen. (At least not yet) Klay came up gimpy after Game Two (worth recalling that Iguodala came up gimpy after Game One) and Kevon Looney was announced injured and out for the season. Curry was amazing (47/8/7) but without Klay, the Warriors didn't have enough scoring and were never in this game. The Raptors controlled the tempo from beginning to end, everyone played well, not a dominant performance but a consistent and convincing one.

Raptors 105-92 Warriors
Klay returned and was great, Looney also returned and was fine, but even still the Raptors controlled the ball throughout and the Warriors just could not generate enough offense to get into the game. In the 3rd quarter, Curry went cold, Kawhi got hot and that was pretty much it. The Raptors were crisp and confident throughout. All signs pointing to the Raptors finishing it in the next game.

Warriors 106-105 Raptors
Durant returned and was great...until early in the 2nd quarter when he got hurt again (re-injured his achilles or newly injured his achilles?) and did not return; he only played a few minutes but he was very effective and gave the squad a huge lift. The Warriors held control until late in the 4th quarter, when the Raptors had an offensive flurry and took a 6 point lead with three minutes to go. Suddenly the Raptors went cold, there were a bunch of weird plays from both sides (were you expecting a sloppy over-and-back in the last two minutes of a Finals game?), and the Warriors are still alive. They're depleted but they have announced that they can still win...though Durant and Looney are now officially gone, Cousins was already injured, and Klay and Iguodala have both suffered, as well.

So what happens now?

I say the Raptors win Game Six. A weird wrinkle I hadn't previously considered: both these teams are better on the road. The Warriors were outmanned and abysmal in Games Three and Four, the Raptors were sluggish and sloppy in Games Two and Five. The Raptors fanbase is loud, crazy and obsessed; the Warriors fanbase is grumpy and fickle. I think the Raptors will steel themselves, play their good spread-it-around offense, keep Draymond and Klay in check on the other end and pile on points as the fans file for the exits. I think there's something nerve-wracking about playing in front of your own fans, while being on the road can really bring a team together.

Kawhi is never awful and is pretty much always a great defender but his offense has been a bit spotty, I expect him to be better in Golden State. The infusion of Western conference players (Gasol, Green, Ibaka) has brought the Raptors plenty of confidence on the Warriors floor. I expect Siakam, Van Vleet and Lowry to be aggressive throughout and I would expect Anunoby (probably won't play if Durant isn't in there), Powell and McCaw to make the most of any time they see. I think the Raptors are capable of playing their best game.

Meanwhile, Draymond has been the MVP, Curry has been the other MVP (that one that will get the votes), Klay has been great when available, Iguodala is giving his all....but that's about it. Durant and Looney are both officially not gonna play again this season. Cousins has reminded me of Gronkowski out there: he's still big enough and smart enough to be effective at times, he can still make the right play here and there, but mostly he looks like he's lugging a pullout couch up a flight of stairs; I don't think the Warriors can rely in any way on him having a big game. Livingston has not been a negative but he hasn't been much of a positive either, I don't see how his contribution could raise the level of the team at this point. McKinnie has had nice moments but not enough to make up for the loss of Durant. Bogut is officially shot (*). Jerebko, Bell and Jones have not fared well at all. Curry and Klay and Draymond and Iguodala will have to be absolutely perfect on both ends of the floor and I just don't see how they do it.

The return of Kevin Durant was set up to be a painful gimmick from the beginning. I certainly hope this doesn't do damage to his career but we already know he'll be missing most of next season wherever he plays, so there's nothing good about this for him. He's an athlete, he wanted to play, the team wanted him to play, he tried to play and didn't work in his favor, that's a shame but the blame goes to everyone. It was enough, though, to get the Warriors over the hump in Game Five--even his limited production was better than what McKinnie was gonna do and they held the lead for most of that game. So where do the Warriors get that from in Game Six? The fans? I ain't seeing it. I think the Raptors play a great game and the Warriors look like they're running in sand. Raptors in 6.


(* Do you realize he won the DPOY in the Australian League....this year? He is the reigning DPOY and MVP of the Australian League...man, that don't reflect all that well on the Australian League, does it?)

Recent Sports Watching

NHL
I love hockey but the Stanley Cup Finals is pretty much all I get to see. I caught Games One, Four, Five, Six and Seven and I think I found the Blues to be the better team in general. The Bruins were wild and up for anything, the Blues were more controlled and tended to want to dominate possession. But the game is all about energy and when the Bruins bring the active, they score more goals.

Blues 2-4 Bruins
Blues looked better, Bruins played better. Bruins had the energy and pretty much controlled throughout but the Blues showed flashes of an offense that could hold possession and attack.

Blues 3-2 Bruins
Bruins 7-2 Blues

Bruins 2-4 Blues
Opposite of Game One: I thought the Bruins played more compact and reliable but the Blues played wild, brought the energy and locked down this W early on.

Blues 2-1 Bruins
This series will be remembered for Game Five where the Blues committed an obvious penalty and finished the play with the goal that finished off the win. Okay: I don't watch a lot of hockey and I sometimes miss which interactions are illegal and which are just par for the course, but even I could tell right away that that was a foul--no idea how the refs missed it. Just to hammer home the point: the dude who committed the foul got the puck passed back to him after the dude he fouled turned it over--and he wasn't ready for the pass because he was already arguing with the ref who didn't even make a call! That makes him the guiltiest-looking human being I have ever seen. That kid with the chocolate icing smeared on his face who has no idea what happened to the cake has been moved to 2nd place. The Blues dude gave up on the play to start arguing--that's guilty! That alone should be 2 minutes in the box! And even though the Bruins dominated the final ten minutes or so of that match, they could not overcome the Blues' lead.

Bruins 5-1 Blues
Game Six was set up for the Blues to finish it off, but they didn't show up, man. I thought the Blues were the better team but they played tight and got frustrated by their inability to score. This game was still close deep into the 3rd, Blues sorta checked out by the end, Bruins piled it on, Blues got chippy late but never challenged the scoreboard. Again, I generally thought the Blues were the better team but once the Bruins started scoring, they just piled it on. (I think Binnington (Blues goalie) has been great and should be MVP if the Blues win; but he does have two games (Three and Six--both home games!) where he got beaten like a Bond villain and that is awkward)

Blues 4-1 Bruins

Game Seven: Whoever brings the energy will win the game. Bruins came out crazy but the Blues were able to snake two goals (one right before halftime--I love/hate those!) and seem pretty well in control after the 1st period. But I thought both teams were frisky and in it to win it, so I still expected more goals, maybe even a tie game going into the 3rd. But the 2nd period was pretty even, both teams played better defense than offense, which kinda surprised me: I thought we'd see more playmaking, more guys trying to be the hero, rather than tightening up on D. But the 2nd period was pretty conservative as neither team ever got their offense set up. Still close enough where anything can happen. But a beautiful counter attack goal by the Blues with around 9 minutes left sucked the life of the Bruins. Their defenders start slacking out there, Blues got another goal and this game was over. The Bruins scored a late on to give the fans something to cheer about (nice top shelf knuckleball). 

Good win for the Blues! As I keep saying, I thought the Blues were the better team throughout and when they played their game, they were gonna win. Games One, Three and Six were the ones the Blues didn't show up for, those are the ones they lost. The Bruins had a wider range of play, at their best their offense was overpowering but at their worst they couldn't hold their zone against the Blues attack. I don't watch enough hockey to know how momentous this was, but it was the first Cup for the Blues and they were in dead last in the league on January 1, so they've come a long way in the last six months. 

USA Friendlys
USA 0-1 Jamaica
USA 0-3 Venezuela
Well, the bad news is USA looked straight fucking horrible in both of these games: no creativity, no attack, no teamwork, sloppy in the backline, and no individual standouts. The good news is...the afternoons were sunny and breezy. This isn't USA's A-team, rather these were a coupla last look-over games before the Gold Cup, so I don't anticipate this is a preview of that (thank god!). That said, I doubt Jamaica or Venezuela brought their top squads, either, so this is a reminder that everyone else's depth is still greater than ours. (*sigh* Shouldn't USA be better by now?) Int'l soccer comes and goes so its hard to know what the Gold Cup will bring, I try to enjoy each tourney as the discrete event that it is. So I expect USA will be in, say, the final four, but we could just as easily get bounced by Martinique or somebody. I won't make a prediction because I have no idea what will happen.


Champions League
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Ain't gonna lie: this was the dullest Champions League match of the whole season. I just happened to have seen that Liverpool won just as I was about to sit down and watch the replay (thank you Yahoo Baseball! (*)), which didn't surprise me, so I hoped at least for an exciting match. Not really. Liverpool got a PK on basically the first play of the game (dude, why was the defender waiving his arm like that? Wtf was that guy doing?), drilled it and that was pretty much it because Tottenham never could get any offense going. It stayed that way for 80 minutes or so, got a little more furious on the way out, but not much more because Liverpool was the better team throughout and sat on their one-goal lead to strangle this game. They stuck a late goal (nice finish) but that didn't do much to diminish the general lameness of this game.

That's too bad, I kinda loved this whole tournament. I watched as much this year as I've probably ever seen and I dug all of it. I was so into Ajax, really impressed by Barcelona, Juventus overachieved, Real Madrid underachieved, Bayern Munich got real old real fast and, holy shit, Man U was in the quarters (how on earth did that happen?). The big what-if is PSG, all they had to do was slip past a hapless Manchester and they might've done some damage. Liverpool was the best team of the whole tourney (they did beat Barca, too, so they earned the crown) and Tottenham just kept managing to survive all the way to the last game (if it was two games, I'd make it even odds for them to come back and take it).


French Open
I saw virtually none of this (I'm not an early morning sorta joe) except the very end of Thiem over Djokovic in the semifinals. The match was called the night before (for some reason), then suffered a long rain delay the next morning, then back and forth all the way. I expected Djokovic to take control but he never quite did, I expected Thiem to falter but he never quite did. Tennis is weird that way: the competition is so close at this level that the tiniest differences loom large. Either way, the winner was gonna get smoked by Nadal (hey, Thiem took a set off him, nice work).


(*) Angry old man rant: back in the day the sports ticker across the bottom of the screen during a ball game was the greatest invention since the flush toilet and I have actual memories of the ticker itself (1996 SEC Tourney B-ball final, I still don't believe UK lost that game). But now in a day and age when I get any score any time anywhere in the universe, I don't need the damn ticker. And putting in Bundesliga scores is supposed to make you look cool--but I watch my soccer on DVR, so now I have to start avoiding the damn ticker that I haven't needed in forever and just takes up space on the screen. Do you get it? The ticker actually interferes with my love of sports! Like the beeper and the VCR, it had its time and place and now it just takes up space.

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

In the West, the Warriors have moved on. Not much to dissect: the Blazers just aren't as good as the Warriors and since Lillard never looked quite right (busted ribs?), the Blazers never had a chance in this series. They probably should've pulled out Game Three but they ran out of gas late and that was that; yeah, I get that Meyers Leonard balled out in the first half, but that was found money and they needed to not rely on him in the second half. Blazers had a hell of a year, a lot to be proud of. They'll be losing a raft of supporting cast this summer (Aminu, Kanter, Seth Curry, Hood and Layman) and they're already over the cap, so they'll need to be creative to put together the right roster next season (if they could package Evan Turner and/or Meyers Leonard into a coupla lower-priced bench players, they'd only need to stay healthy to have a chance in the post-season).

In the East, I am puzzled on the eve of Game Six. My pre-season pick to come out of the East was the Raptors and I reiterated that going into the post-season. But going into this final series I switched to the Bucks because they just seemed to have a better sense of themselves and, well, the Bucks were the best team in the league all season long. But they blinked and suddenly they do not look like themselves and that makes tonight's game extremely intriguing. 

Honestly it's that Games Three and Four were reversed from the likely reality that makes this all so weird. If I told you that after winning the first two in Milwaukee that the Bucks looked flat in Toronto and the Raptors bench came alive and put a good whooping on the Bucks, well, that wouldn't be such a shock. And if the next game was a rock fight that turned into a double overtime struggle that the home team Raptors pulled out to even the series, well, that wouldn't be such a shock either. But the fact that it happened the other way around doesn't make much sense. Game Three was the double OT slugfest (and rather shockingly dull game, incidentally) while Game Four was the Raptors onslaught, that...uh...makes you go, 'Wait, what's going on?' Did the Raptors just take hold of this series? Is this a home team wins every game series? 

I assumed the Bucks would turn it around back home in Game Five but they did not. Indeed, I was amazed at how close it was and that the Bucks still should've won it considering that Giannis never got his groove going, Middleton didn't shoot the ball (not that he didn't shoot well, but that he didn't shoot at all!), Bledsoe had moments but no consistency, Connaughton was kinda awful, Lopez wasn't much help, Hill had a coupla nice moments but nothing that sustained, I thought really only Brogdon looked like himself out there. Meanwhile, the Raptors controlled the flow by the end of the 1st quarter, they were getting the calls (I was blown away at Siakam and Gasol getting calls that Giannis was not getting), and their bench shined out (Van Vleet! Gotta say fatherhood looks good on him) in front of a stunned Milwaukee crowd. So wtf just happened? The Raptors did everything right, had all the luck and the Bucks did everything wrong...and the Bucks were still in it late. So are the Raptors the better team asserting dominance? Or are the Bucks the better team and just not getting lucky? 

The Bucks go into Game Six on their first 3-game losing streak of the season and the Raptors are one home win away from the Finals. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. If Giannis doesn't get the calls tonight, the Bucks are finished; but if he snaps back into his game, I think the Bucks can still win the next two games. Giannis looks shook and Kawhi, well that dude never looks shook. I gotta think the Raptors are gonna take it tonight simply because you would expect the home team's supporting cast to to be more effective, but it could all come down to the refs. Look forward to this game as much as any NBA game since opening night!

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

Blazers - Warriors
Damien Lillard is balling, CJ McCollum has had some of that Lillard shine rub off on him, Rodney Hood has had a resurgence, Enes Kanter is jitterbugging around the basket pretty good right now, Al-Farouk Aminu is a pretty good defender, Mo Harkless and Evan Turner have had moments, Seth Curry is a neat thing to have off the bench in this series, even Zach Collins showed up and gave good minutes in the last round (and did you realize Meyers Leonard had 30 FGA against the Nuggets? He took thirty shots?).  I like the way the Blazers play and when Lillard is commanding the attention, everyone else has room to have a good game, so this team really can hang with anyone.

Unfortunately, the Warriors are better than the Blazers even without Durant. Curry has been balling out again lately, Draymond is reborn (*), Klay was great on D against the Rockets (only so-so on offense), Iguodala looked as good as he's looked in a while and Kevon Looney looks like a legit part of the offense again; but Durant is gone (at least for a while), Cousins is gone (right?), Jerebko is nice but hasn't quite found his spot yet, Livingston has not looked good on either side in a while, Bogut is just for a few minutes at a time, McKinnie and Cook seem like nice guys. But Curry and Klay and Draymond are back in charge and that is, I think, a beautiful thing. All the Warriors need.

My gut was to go Warriors in 5 because I just can't make the case that the Blazers can win overall, so why not go ahead and finish them off quickly? But I'm not sure that follows because Lillard alone is dangerous. But...I feel like the Warriors will be up 3-1 after 4, so I gotta go Warriors in 5 (wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers won Game One). 


Raptors - Bucks
My pre-season pick was Raptors over Warriors, which was also my prediction going into the post-season, too, so it seems like that's what I'd go with here. Nope. The Bucks are better than the Raptors. I like the make-up of the Raptors...if they'd had more experience together. Gasol, especially, looks lost out there at times as do Ibaka and Green, throw in that Siakam is in a brand new place in his career and it seems like Lowry still hasn't quite calibrated all of his teammates to the game plan. They lived off a deep bench all season long but that's more or less gone now, so it all comes down to how quickly this core can come together. The fact that that's even something to worry about makes them no match for the Bucks.

Giannis is the undisputed center of the Bucks universe. When he's on, the rest of the supporting cast has room to make do their thing and contribute. If he's getting the calls, the Bucks are not gonna be beaten by the Raptors. If Giannis struggles to find his game, the Buck supporting cast is not enough to win, so the Raptors must stop Giannis. I don't see how they get that done. I don't see how the Raptors outperform Giannis, therefore I cannot make the case for the Raptors to win. I want these both of these matchups to closer but I just don't think they are. The Warriors and Bucks are better than their opponents. So, like the Warriors, I will take Bucks in 5.


(*) Draymond can get thrown out of any game at any given moment as reliably as anyone I've ever seen--even Rasheed Wallace had more sense of himself than this. As we see the refs increasingly get yelled at, dismissed or conferred with after every play, does Draymond shield a lot of other players to yap or does he close down the refs' desire to hear anything from anyone? Does he make a ref more or less reactionary? And how does that play out for everyone else on the court? I dunno, but I'll be watching that for as long as Draymond remains in these playoffs.

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.

The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.

Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).

The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.


And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!

I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.

I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.


(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.

2018-19 Champions League Semi-finals

Tottenham 0-1 Ajax
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
(3-3; Tottenham advances on road goals)
Wow, what a fucking finish.  The 1st leg was a microcosm of the whole tourney for these two teams: Ajax played smart and together, Tottenham tried to play too fast and got nothing going on offense and fell apart on defense. The first half of the 2nd leg was more of the same, Ajax dominating possession and up 2-0 at the break. Then Tottenham continued their run off pulling it out of their asses late, while Ajax suddenly looked like one of the early round opponents (namely, rattled and back pedaling in the face of a superior team). When the game gets loose, Tottenham gets it going and they're keeping the Texas Tech vibe alive for me: I still don't know how they got by Manchester City, now I don't know how they got by Ajax--maybe Tottenham is good!


Barcelona 3-0 Liverpool
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
(Liverpool 4-3)
I will say I'm not shocked that Liverpool came back and stole this late. Hey, Livepool had offense, they attack well and Barcelona had, until the 2nd leg o the semifinals, more or less coasted through this tourney without having to work for it. That said, Barca would've taken the draw, so they were still able to win right to the last second and they couldn't muster up even a hint of offense. (*) So Liverpool scores right away and add another right after halftime, both of which were legit goals: keeper was basically unable to stop either of them. Then the third goal right after that was one of the most perfect headers I've ever seen: that dude's like 10 feet in the air and has torqued his back in an impossible position to perfectly turn his head to re-direct the pass into the upper 90 (absolutely fucking flawless!). Then the fourth goal will be the favorite of Liverpool fans for the next 50 years: the casual walk away, then quick step back catching everyone off guard and finding the only guy that's actually paying attention, who then beats the keeper. Holy shit, man. I've never seen anything like that. And Barca was still alive to make it frisky right down to the wire but they just didn't have it in them somehow. That last goal was such a kick in the solar plexus that they were just stunned from then on. All English final, I'm stunned, as well.


Champions League Final (June 1, 2019)
Tottenham v. Liverpool
Okay, I didn't believe in Texas Tech all through this year's NCAA tourney because they kept winning so improbably, until the championship when I finally gave up my inhibitions and decided that Tech was capable of beating anyone. Yeah, well Tech lost in the Final (great game, but not great enough for Tech) because they finally played a team that was exactly like them...they were their own kryptonite. Now Tottenham faces another Premier League side but I think Liverpool is better. I'm not shocked that Liverpool came back and beat Barca, but I'm still amazed Tottenham came back on Man City and on Ajax. Liverpool beat a better team and I wasn't shocked....indicates to me that I think Liverpool is the better team and in a one-game final, I think they're more likely to control the flow and score more goals. I gotta go with Liverpool (I'll say they win 2-1).


(*) I don't typically break down plays but there was one in this game that almost broke my brain when I first saw it and after it was all over I had to go back to. 1st half at the 15:40 mark, Barca midfielder gets a long ball over the defense, two other strikers slip their defenders and its a 4-on-2 breakaway for Barca, ends up with Messi unmarked at the top of the box with three dudes to pass and a lot of goal to shoot at...hesitates too long, defender pokes it away at the last second. That's the play that will haunt the Barca faithful, they would've ended the game early, they let it get by them, Liverpool whittled them down and drank their milkshake.

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)

(Bucks in 4; I said Bucks in 4)
Pistons 86-121 Bucks

Pistons 99-120 Bucks

Bucks 119-103 Pistons

Bucks 127-104 Pistons

There was no way--NO WAY--the Pistons were going to beat the Bucks anyway, but without Blake Griffin for 3 games (and then a weird hobbling shell of him for the 4th), there was no way the Pistons were even going to have a moment of looking like they could win a game.  None of these games were close and that was as good as it was ever gonna get for the Pistons. The Pistons are an okay team, they're an 8th place in the East kinda team and I wouldn't be surprised to see them between 7th-9th next year, too. 

(Raptors in 5; I said Raptors in 4)

Magic 104-101 Raptors

Magic 82-111 Raptors

Raptors 98-93 Magic

Raptors 107-85 Magic

Magic 96-115 Raptors

DJ Augustin! Man, he was phenomenal in Game One! And I gotta say for one game the Magic did look pretty good: road-block defense that really fustigated the Raptors and good ball movement leading to good shots on the other end. But...that was pretty much it. Once Kyle Lowry got back to being better than DJ Augustin, the Raptors rolled with ease. There was a hot second of worry in Toronto but that didn't really last long. I was more impressed in general with the Magic than I expected to be, they're gutty, good team defense, play hard, but just don't have the depth or star power to be a higher up team in the East; but I think they're improvement was legit and I think they can continue to be better than the Hornets, Heat, Pistons, etc., next year.


(Sixers in 5; I said Sixers in 5)
Nets 111-102 Sixers
Nets 123-145 Sixers
Sixers 131-115 Nets
Sixers 112-108 Nets
Nets 100-122 Sixers
This series showed us the high and low of the Sixers: Game One was a lot of standing around waiting for someone else to get it done and sloppy defense in the face of a scrappy team that has nothing to lose. But Game Two was the exact opposite: tough team defense and everyone contributed on offense and that's when the Sixers are at their best. I still want to see the Sixers do this a little more consistently before I'm ready to think they'll go deeper, but they've got the talent to do damage. The Nets are a spunky little team, came up well this year, if they can draft well and make a nice move or two in the summer, they might be ready to move up (say, if Kawhi splits, if Kyrie splits, if the Sixers strike out, or if someone gets hurt) next year.


(Celtics in 4; I said Celtics in 7)
Pacers 74-84 Celtics
Pacers 91-99 Celtics
Celtics 104-96 Pacers
Celtics 110-106 Pacers
I thought the Celtics would win but I thought the Pacers would push them, force the Celtics to man up and be as goo as they're supposed to be. Well, credit the Celtics for not waiting for tragedy and coming in ready to play in Game One. The Pacers have played well since Oladipo went down and I thought they could continue that intensity against a waffling Celtics side, but the deficiencies finally caught up to them and the Celtics took advantage. The Pacers are still in good position to be in the top five in the East next year and they've got moves to make, I can see them leapfrogging toward the top.


(Warriors in 6; I said Warriors in 4)
Clippers 104-121 Warriors
Clippers 135-131 Warriors
Warriors 132-105 Clippers
Warriors 113-105 Clippers
Clippers 129-121 Warriors
Warriors 129-110 Clippers
Bwa-ha! The Warriors had to play six games to get past the Clippers...something about that just makes me giggle. The Clippers were strangely good this year and when they recognize that they've got nothing else to do but play hard, they're not a bad team. The Warriors seemed to forget that in this series. They built up the big lead in Game Two (yeah, even I stopped watching) and then just sat there stunned while the Clippers came back and took the game. And in Game Five, the Warriors had one of those moments where all the stars kept waiting for someone else to do all the scoring (also, where was Steph in the last 5 minutes? Everyone's chucking up desperation 3's and no one's giving Curry the ball? WTF?) and then they took the lead back near the end...and than promptly stopped playing, allowing the Clippers to steal another one. The Warriors have a Federer-like tendency to occasionally zone out and give up points when it seems like they ought to be crushing and the Clippers have a tendency to just be a thorn in the side of superior foes, in this case it turned an easy sweep into a 6-game slugfest. Oh well, the Warriors are still really good. The Clippers had a great season and have a lot of room to make moves this summer--they could be really good really fast next year.


(Nuggets in 7; I said Nuggets in 6)
Spurs 101-96 Nuggets
Spurs 105-114 Nuggets
Nuggets 108-118 Spurs
Nuggets 117-103 Spurs
Spurs 108-90 Nuggets
Nuggets 103-120 Spurs
Spurs 86-90 Nuggets
The dynamic at work here is that the Nuggets are a young team that have good talent but aren't really sure what they're doing and that the Spurs are a veteran squad loaded with savvy but maybe a step slower on the court. That played out in both teams stealing games they should've lost/dropping games they should've won. I think the Nuggets were the better team and deserved to win but the Spurs pushed them hard because they've got the smarts to hang....until the end of Game Seven....when the veteran Spurs stood around and watched the clock run out instead of....well....anything would've been better than just standing there powerless. Weird finish for the Spurs but I expect them to be good again next year because they're the Spurs (but the Mavs, Grizzlies and Lakers will be coming and the Clippers might much better).


(Blazers in 5; I said Blazers in 7)
Thunder 99-104 Blazers
Thunder 94-114 Blazers
Blazers 108-120 Thunder
Blazers 111-98 Thunder
Thunder 115-118 Blazers
I thought this was a classic 'home team wins every game' series and it stayed that way until the Blazers took over the series by winning Game Four and from there you just knew OKC was gonna flounder. The Blazers looked good, they know who they are (re: Lillard and his supporting cast) and they play their roles effectively. This is not a great team but they stick together, they've got good depth and when Lillard is unstoppable mode, they can win games they're not supposed to. The Thunder should be better than they are--should be better than the Blazers--but OKC has never been comfortable just being Westbrook's sidekicks. Not sure where the Thunder goes this off-season, feels like its time to make some major moves.


(Rockets in 5; I said Rockets in 5)
Jazz 90-122 Rockets
Jazz 98-118 Rockets
Rockets 104-101 Jazz
Rockets 91-107 Jazz
Jazz 93-100 Rockets
Yeah, the gentleman's sweep was what was supposed to happen. The Rockets have too much scoring, the Jazz don't have enough. The Jazz are still on the proper path: they're getting better coalescing around Donovan Mitchell and I think Coach Snyder is still a good fit for what they're trying to do. But to go deeper in the post-season, they need another big time scorer.


(I was traveling for most of April and was unable to update the blog. Each semi series has already played two games, I'll try to be as objective as I can)

Celtics 112-90 Bucks
Celtics 102-123 Bucks
The Celtics stung the Bucks in Game One, wresting control of the series right away after quickly dispatching the Pacers in a manner I didn't think them capable of. But I'm not sure there was anything from Game One that they'll be able to replicate from here on out, so I think there is a slim chance that the Celtics have peaked and might be done. I think the main takeaway from the first game was that Giannis was not getting calls he expected, which changed his attacking style, which warped the way his supporting cast goes about their jobs, which culminated in a full-on thumping. Okay, there's the model: frustrate Giannis and the rest of the team falls apart. Except that it wasn't the Celtics that accomplished this, it was the refs. And I think that was just a fluke. So while the Celtics picked a great time to go on a 5-game winning streak and look much better, much more fluid than at any time during the regular season, I still think the Bucks will move on. I'll stick with Bucks in 7.


Sixers 95-108 Raptors
Sixers 94-89 Raptors
This is an interesting match: the Raptors have been good for a while now but they've made major changes this year and have never really had much success in the post-season; while the Sixers have sucked forever, finally put together their core, remolded the supporting cast around them and are ready to move forward...except that they're still weirdly put together and don't have a clear path to success. If this was pure talent, I'd go Sixers. But when you factor in the intangibles, the Raptors are a deeper, richer squad and should have plenty enough to get past the Sixers. That said, the Raptors do go cold from time to time while the Sixers get hot from time to time, if those periods overlap, the Sixers could do some damage. But I think the Raptors are stable enough to avoid long stretches of zilch, whereas I still think the Sixers are a year away. I'll stick with Raptors in 6.


Rockets 100-104 Warriors
Rockets 109-115 Warriors
Isn't it interesting that the Rockets are the only team to fail to steal a W on the road in the first two games? Much is being made about the officiating but that's all a red herring, these are arguably the two best teams in the league and its going to take a supreme effort (and some luck) to escape this series. This the Harden v Durant show...I'll take Durant. I think he's more reliable, more fun, inspires more from his teammates and has more variety to his ability to score. Don't get me wrong: this series isn't over, the Rockets are gonna be tough to beat at home. But the Warriors have been here before, the Rockets are still new to this. I'll take Warriors in 7.


Blazers 113-121 Nuggets
Blazers 97-90 Nuggets
Quite simply: I think the Blazers are ready to take a step up and I don't think the Nuggets are. I think Lillard can control a game and make the most of his teammates better than Jokic can (for now). The Nuggets are too reliant on Jamal Murray: when he scores they win, when he doesn't they lose. I just don't see him rising up 4 times out of 7 against this Blazer team. The Blazers on the other hand just need to play their game, be consistent and they should win. I'll take Blazers in 6.

2018-19 NBA Awards (and Pre-Season Predictions)

MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
My pre-season pick for the MVP was Anthony Davis (Pelicans), jeez what a wasted year from such a great player. (*) But Giannis was in my list of guys ready for a bust-out season--oh man, he busted out! Down to the wire I was inclined to go with James Harden (Rockets) because he carried his team for stretches of the season in a way that Giannis didn't have to (though there's something to be said for the fact that Giannis allows his teammates the room to be their best whereas for Harden teammates are cinder blocks to be dragged along). But in the end I went with Giannis because I thought he had great defensive season, as well (see below), and because his team ended up with the best record in the league and because--I'll say it--he's just a lot more fun to watch than Harden.

That said, Harden had another great year carrying the Rockets through injuries, just missing out on the #2 seed in the West, and flat out dominating the league for weeks at a time. Harden is putting his stamp on Player of the Decade, wouldn't you say? I've had him in my top three for MVP for at least 5 straight years and I fully expect him to be there next year, don't you?

2nd: James Harden (Rockets), 3rd: Steph Curry (Warriors), 4th: Damian Lillard (Blazers), 5th: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)


DPOY
Giannis Antetonkounmpo (Bucks)
From the perimeter to the rim, he was the best defender in the league by far this season. He's got the reach and the foot speed to hang with the best outside shooters and the size and the hops to bang with the big guys down low. And he's got the skills and smarts to start the break (that is, turning defense into offense). There's nothing that guy can't do on the court--and he's still getting better.

That said: I firmly believe Andre Drummond (Pistons) is now the most underrated player in the league. League leader in offensive and defensive rebounds, top five in steals and blocks (league leader in those stats combined) and among the league leaders in 2-point attempts and free throw attempts (thought admittedly he's a godawful free throw shooter). Yet, I hardly hear him mentioned in the pundits' all-defense teams. He's busting his ass out there for a team that no longer appreciates him and I think it's a damn shame that the even the chattering classes don't seem to notice.

All-defense:
1st team: G: Marcus Smart (Celtics), Klay Thompson (Warriors); F: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), Paul George (Thunder); C: Andre Drummond (Pistons)

2nd team: G: Eric Bledsoe (Bucks), Russell Westbrook (Thunder); F: Ben Simmons (Sixers), Jerami Grant (Thunder); C: Rudy Gobert (Jazz)


Rookie
Luka Doncic (Mavs)
He was my pre-season pick and he was great from beginning to end. Trae Young (Hawks) had a great second half after starting kinda slow and was so much better than I thought he'd be. But I gotta stick with Luka, so much upside, so much potential dominance and still so young. He controls the game as a rookie and that's impressive, not unlike Ben Simmons (Sixers) last year but with better ability to score. Next year when Porzingis comes in and the roster gets overhauled, the Mavs could be primed for a big jump right away and the optimism is first and foremost because of Luka.

Digging into the numbers I found myself more impressed with Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Collin Sexton (Cavs) than I expected to be and even more impressed with Landry Shamet (Clippers) than I already was. Another good batch of rookies this year--and we didn't even get to see much of Harry Giles (Kings), Omari Spellman (Hawks), Mo Bamba (Magic) or Zhaire Smith (Sixers) and what we saw of Kevin Knox (Knicks) and Wendell Carter (Bulls) was not as good as it should've been, I still think those guys are gonna be really good.

2nd: Trae Young (Hawks), 3rd: Marvin Bagley (Kings), 4th: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Clippers); 5th: Mitchell Robinson (Knicks). And I really liked Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies), Deandre Ayton (Suns), Landry Shamet (Sixers/Clippers), Jalen Brunson (Mavs), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Kevin Huerter (Hawks), Miles Bridges (Hornets), Alonzo Trier (Knicks), and Rodions Kurucs (Nets). Another strong rookie class.


6th Man
Lou Williams (Clippers)
How soon before we just re-name this the Lou Williams Award? In today's NBA dudes don't want to come off the bench, they'd rather get fewer minutes overall and less time at the end of the game as long as they're there at the start. Weird. Lou, on the other hand, sees the benefit of letting the game develop before he steps on the court. For all bench players he led (by a mile!) in points and free throw attempts and sports a gaudy asst:to ratio. Really his only competition is his teammate Montrezl Harrel (Clippers), who has a huge number of FTA while leading bench players in rebounds, too--but in Harrel's case it makes you wonder why he doesn't start more?

When digging into the numbers (players who started fewer than half of their games played), the ones that most jumped out at me were Monte Morris (Nuggets) with a killer asst:to, among the leaders in points, steals, minutes played, shot 49% from the field, 41% from 3--dang! That's pretty good. Also Dmontas Sabonis (Pacers), Terrence Ross (Magic) and the ageless Derrick Rose (Wolves) had pretty good seasons off the bench, too.

My pre-season pick was Isaiah Thomas (Nuggets) with the thinking that he could be a real spark off the bench for them but that never came to fruition. Instead it was Morris and Malik Beasley who formed the core of the Nuggets 2nd string, while Thomas never quite fit in.


Most Improved
Paksal Siakam (Raptors)
Siakam went from being a nice role player to a potential star at both ends of the court, upping his usage and efficiency simultaneously--that doesn't happen much in this world. It's not uncommon to see a fine young player getting 10 MPG and thinking he'd be so much better at 20 MPG but then he's not because diminishing returns sets in and while he gets better in the first five minutes, he actually becomes a detriment in the last five minutes. That is precisely the scenario that Siakam avoided this year, going from a role player in the 2nd unit to becoming a more important role player with the starters and busting out in every statistical category (and in the all-important eye test). He's comfortable in a variety of defensive roles and more proficient with the ball and in transition that I would've even thought possible. I knew he was good, didn't know he was this good, Siakam is a vital part of one of the 4-5 best teams in the league and no one saw that coming.

I was gonna throw the curve ball and go with Giannis (Bucks) here because he was my MVP and DPOY (**), which is an amazing jump by any reckoning. But looking back to last season, he was in my top five for both of those awards and I expected him to make a leap this year, so I can't really say this was out of the blue, especially since he was also joined by my Coach of the Year (see below). Last year I forgot to menion Spencie Dinwiddie (Nets) and this year I almost forgot to mention D'Angelo Russell (Nets), who clearly took a step forward, finally coming into his own as a team leader (though there were still stretches when he was not in the game at crunch time). I was kinda impressed with Danilo Gallinari (Clippers) this year, he's coming off an injury so his numbers were inflated but go back to the previous year and this year was much better and that's a bit of an anomaly at his age (and his injury-prone-ness). I've always loved Nikola Vucevic (Magic) but he, too, had a nicer than usual season this year.

There was more discussion than I've ever previously heard among the talking heads about whether it was okay to use 2nd year players in this category and while I understand the logic (rookie to sophomore is usually the biggest single year jump in any career), I think contributing to a good team is even more important. Hanging better numbers on a team that goes nowhere doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me, so I think this award is more team-dependent (as opposed to career-dependent) than I would've thought. (Kinda feels like Gordon Hayward (Celtics) is lining up to win this next year, right?)


Coach
Mike Budenholzer (Bucks)
Just to keep the Bucks feeling going, its worth noting that Coach Bud has a lot to do with Giannis going from good to great and the Bucks going from scrappy underdogs to faves in the East. He knew what he had with Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton and used them as the pillars of an architecture to maximize Giannis, get more out of Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez than anyone ever had before and even lure strong contributions from guys like DJ Wilson, Sterling Brown, Pat Connaughton and Donte Divincenzo. Starting with Giannis is every coach's dream but to get the most out of everyone else is how run up the tables and Coach Bud pulled it off.

There were a lot of good candidates this year: Steve Clifford (Magic) looked like another boring retread when hired last summer but he turned the lowly Magic into a defensive juggernaut and a playoff team--and no one saw that coming! Mike Malone (Nuggets) had another fine leap and has gone from being underrated to really really underrated. Doc Rivers (Clippers) withstood a major roster overhaul and came out better than before with a cleaner cap going into the summer, I didn't know Doc had it in him but he had a really good season. Dave Joerger (Kings) did a lot with his ragtag batch of youth and got fired for his efforts (he must be a total dick in real life, right, why else does he keep getting fired despite the good job he keeps doing?).Nick Nurse (Raptors) inherited a good roster but he also inherited many seasons of disappointment, too, and rolled with some major changes to the roster to a chance at a nice run deep into the post-season. Dwayne Casey (Pistons) had a nice season after getting fired for a Coach of the Year-like performance just a year ago, really made the most of a lumpy and weird Pistons roster.


Executive
Jon Horst (Bucks)/Micheal Winger (Clippers)
I sometimes choose a winner for each conference and since I couldn't choose between my top two here, I'll default to taking them both. The Bucks hired the right coach, pulled Brook Lopez off the scrap heap, re-signed Eric Bledsoe to a very reasonable deal, and made mid-season deals for George Hill, Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol (none of them were home runs, but none of them were strikeouts, either) and cruised to the best record in the league. That's a pretty good season and alongside MVP, DPOY and Coach of the Year, this is a fitting accolade.

The Clippers tried to re-sign Tobias Harris last summer, got dissed and then pulled the trigger on a series of sprawling, but ultimately very rewarding trades that netted them Landry Shamet, Ivaca Zubac, JaMychel Green, two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks for a batch of guys that weren't going to re-sign anyway (Wesley Johnson, Tobias Harris, Boban Marjonovic, Micheal Beasley, Alexis Ajinca, Mike Scott, Milos Teodosic, Marcin Gortat, Avery Bradley). They also got an excellent rookie season out of PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, still made the playoffs despite all the changes, cleaned up their books heading into a turbulent summer and--best of all--stuck the dreaded Lakers in the eye! And the season ends on a really optimistic note going forward after a lot of upheavals in the previous coupla years. Man, that was pretty god damn good year for the Clippers!

Other GMs that had excellent seasons: Masai Ujiri (Raptors) fired last year's Coach of the Year and traded away some beloved fan favorites in rather cold-blooded fashion but the moves seem to have worked out and the Raptors are finally poised to make a deep run in the Lebron-less playoffs. Elton Brand (Sixers) remolded the Sixers bench in bold fashion and even though it hasn't made much difference, I do think the moves were worth making. Travis Schlenk (Hawks) drafted well, emptied his roster to make room for the future and hired a solid coach to guide the youth movement; this could've been disastrous and instead the Hawks had a pretty good year and are set going forward.

Oh man, my pre-season pick for this was Rob Pelinka (Lakers), solely because he signed Lebron...but...uh...man, not much else went right for the Lakers this year. The summer signings were all weird and overhyped, the season did not get off particularly well, the attempted trade for Anthony Davis was a full-on disaster, dumping Ivaca Zubac is the most laughable move of recent memory, the youthful core of the roster is in full revolt mode, they were racked by injuries late, Magic's self-immolation just highlighted how dysfunctional and delusional the entire organization is and they capped the season by firing Luke Walton, who everyone still thinks is the next great coach. WTF, dude? Oh and supposedly everyone hates Pelinka. So outside of getting Lebron (which is playing out more curse than blessing), everything he's done has gone horribly wrong, the team does not look any better prepared for the future and everyone hates him--Stephen King couldn't have written a scarier story! Wow, that is a superlative season but not the kind that wins awards.


(*) When going over MVP finalists I came up with a preliminary list of 158 players. Anthony Davis was not one of them. What the fuck, dude? Didn't even crack my top 158 despite going relatively injury-free this year? I had Zach LaVine comfortably ahead of Anthony Davis!?! How is that possible? This will be remembered as the year Davis showed that he doesn't really get how the NBA works, embroiling himself in trade shenanigans that killed his own team and the team he wanted to go (Lakers), wasted a year of his prime and took him from king of New Orleans to persona non grata in his own town. What a god damn shame. I can't say the Pelicans have done much right since they drafted Davis, but they've tried to do right and, frankly, not acquiescing to his demands was the right thing to do in this situation. I'm not sure where Davis goes from here but if he goes into next year with a bad vibe, it could be two wasted seasons and that's just heartbreaking to think about.

(**) Can I make a weird comparison? At this year's Oscars, Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director and Best Cinematography, which I'd liken to winning MVP and DPOY in the same season. Beware though: Cuaron did not win Best Picture, which could be an analogue for Giannis not winning the Championship, no?

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Predictions)

East
Bucks over Pistons in 4
Raptors over Magic in 4
Sixers over Nets in 5
Celtics over Pacers in 7

Pistons without Blake Griffin...no way they win even a single game.
Raptors were my pre-season pick (and I'm sticking with 'em). Magic had a nice season, it ends here.
Last year's playoff performance by the Sixers showed they weren't ready to be here but they've thickened the roster (sorta) and I think the Nets have overachieved to get this far. Sixers should breeze.
Okay, here it is: if the Celtics are gonna be as good as they ought to be, then smacking an Oladipo-less Pacer squad should be a given; but they're not there and the Pacers have played really well without him. I still like the Celtics to take it but the Pacers will sweat them.


Bucks over Celtics in 5
Raptors over Sixers in 5

The Celtics still have Kyrie and that's good enough to keep the Celtics competitive even against the best team in the league. But the Bucks remember last year's smack down and they're better in every way this year, I like the Bucks to start strong, win one in Boston and finish it quick.
The Raptors are too disciplined, too deep, too good and the Sixers are still too green and even with all their star power, who's the guy that steps up? The Raptors are too good.


Raptors over Bucks in 7

This is when the playoffs begin. The Bucks have grown by leaps and bounds this year while the Raptors are still strangely the same team they've been for a few years now (despite some big shakeups in the last 12 months). But the Raptors are free of Lebron and it is their time to rule the roost. I like the Bucks, I love Giannis, they've got a solid supporting cast and the Coach of the Year, but I don't think they win Game Seven.


West
Warriors over Clippers in 4
Nuggets over Spurs in 6
Blazers over Thunder in 7
Rockets over Jazz in 5

I like what the Clippers did this year and the Warriors often start slow in the post-season, so the Clippers got a shot, right? Nah. The Clippers have a rookie PG and a bunch of dudes that have never been here before (and they already have an eye toward the off-season); the Warriors are looking at Houston in Round Two, they need to get going and I think they will.
The Spurs have impressed me with their ability to stay above water but the Nuggets' home court advantage and depth are just too much to overcome. I like the Nuggets to come in ready to play.
The Thunder are the squad no one wants to play in the playoffs, the Blazers are the team that underachieve every year late, so it seems like the Thunder are the obvious favorite, right? I'm not seeing it. I kinda love the Blazers as the underdog and I'm weary of the Thunder with more swagger than they deserve (and they could really use Roberson in a series like this). I'll take the Blazers to stare down the mighty Thunder and move on.
The Rockets blew their chance to get the #2 seed but I hardly think that matters, they'll be tough to beat anywhere, any time. I like the Jazz but I kinda liked them better last year...when they got smoked by the Rockets in the playoffs. I just don't see the upside for the Jazz here, I gotta go with the Rockets all the way.


Warriors over Rockets in 7
Blazers over Nuggets in 6

Here's where the playoffs begin! Warriors-Rockets is gonna be a war...I dunno, I'll take the Warriors in Game Seven.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket is the up-and-coming Nuggets with the deep bench, the wily coach, the eye-of-the-storm star in Jokic to keep it all together and the Blazers are the team that disappoints every year. I think the Blazers have more moxy and they know who they are and they'll poke the newcomers in the eye. I like the Blazers.


Warriors over Blazers in 7

The Warriors, after beating the feared Rockets, will think they've got it all taken care of. But the Blazers will be high on house money, feeling themselves and will push the Warriors to the edge. I like the Warriors to get it done when the chips are down, but they'll have to work harder than they've worked in a while.


Finals

Raptors over Warriors in 7

This was my pre-season pick and I'm sticking with it. The Warriors have splintered but they're so damned talented, they'll get all the way to the finish line before it really catches up with them. The Raptors could blink but with Kawhi as the star, I think they'll be steady enough and aggressive enough to make the most of the Warrior wobbles.  This season will be remembered for Giannis's breakout and the Warriors' going bust.

2018-19 NBA Bric-a-Brac (End of regular season)

Firings
Dave Joerger (Kings)
Kind of a surprise and yet not really. The rumors were swirling early in the season that Joerger and GM Valde Divac were not on the same page. Then the Kings vastly over performed throughout the year and it felt like Joerger was in a good place--he'll get Coach of the Year votes. But...I guess not. The power struggle was won by Divac and a coach who's actually two pretty good runs with two not very good squads is looking for a new job (hmmmm....Wolves?).

JB Bickerstaff (Grizzlies)
Just days after the dreaded 'vote of confidence', Bickerstaff was let go amidst an overhaul in the Grizzlies front office. Grizzlies were not built to have a good season and trading away Marc Gasol was the signal of changes a'coming. (They got any interest in bringing back Dave Joerger?) Bickerstaff showed enough to warrant a run on the asst. coach treadmill, I fully expect he'll be employed somewhere next year.

Larry Drew (Cavs)
Not a firing exactly, but his extended audition for the job is officially over. Reports suggest he didn't really want the job anyway. Drew is a respected veteran, wouldn't be surprised to see him on the Spurs bench next year or the Warriors.

GM Chris Wallace (Grizzlies)
Seemed like he thought he was in charge, so the owner showed up and reminded him...nope, you are not. Wallace was demoted, meaning he's still stuck with an organization that clearly no longer wants him (which is...well, professionally speaking, that's about the worst thing possible, isn't it?). So who will run the new look Grizzlies? (How about a Jeff and Stan Van Gundy combo?)

Magic Johnson (Lakers), President of Basketball Operations
Fired himself out of nowhere at a rambling bizarre press conference that he apparently did without notifying the organization. Magic never seemed to put forth the effort needed to be a for-real NBA GM and since he was never the man for this job, I kinda wonder how this effects his standing with the team going forward. Obviously he's a Laker legend, it'd be a shame if that gets tarnished. Hiring Magic for this kind of position was a bad move from the start, hard to see where they go from here. (And do GM Rob Pelinka and Coach Luke Walton get run out, as well?)


Hirings/Extensions
GM Vlade Divac (Kings)
Got the juice that allowed him to put a dagger in the back of Coach Joerger. He's drafted well and made some savvy trades over the last coupla years, I don't understand the friction with Joerger (who looked like he did a great job) but Divac has put together a pretty good young squad. (And apparently has his eye on Luke Walton, if he gets bounced from the Lakers)

GM James Jones (Suns)
Was the interim GM, but no longer. Now the job is his. (Beware what you wish for...) He's got Devin Booker signed long term and a pack of interesting talent but he's also got the worst owner in the league and a growing track record of sucking.


Late season Waivings
Tahjere McCall (Nets), Terrence Jones (Rockets), Christian Wood (Bucks), Tyler Zeller (Hawks), Jason Smith (Pelicans), Andre Ingram (Lakers), BJ Johnson (Hawks), Jawun Evans (Suns), Trevon Duval (Bucks), Eric Moreland (Raptors), Charles Cooke (Heat), Justin Patton (Sixers), Greg Monroe (Celtics), Dusty Hannahs (Grizzlies), Isaiah Briscoe (Magic), Wesley Johnson (Wizards), Rodey McGruder (Heat), Luc Mbah-a-Moute (Clippers)

Most all of these guys were signed to 10-day contracts that were not renewed when the contract expired.

A coupla exceptions:
Patton (Sixers). He was a throw-in in the deal that brought Jimmy Butler over from the Wolves (fun fact: he was a throw-in in the deal that took Butler to the Wolves to begin with), a 1st rd draft pick that has been injured since before he arrived in the league. Some folks would see that as a bad sign but injured rookies is the Sixers' way, so I guess they just don't see any upside in him. Kinda wonder if we'll ever get to see him beyond the three games he played this year.

Briscoe (Magic). He played a lot for the Magic this year, which surprised me as I thought Briscoe was a guy fated to live in Europe. He's had some injury troubles, had season-ending surgery in March, they may well want him back for Summer League and/or next season. He's a reliable 2nd string combo guard, the kinda guy who's not bad at a wide range of things while not really excelling at anything.

Johnson (Wizards). Wily vet came over from the Clippers but never got going with the Wizards. Hard to tell what direction the Wizards are going in for next year but I guess Johnson was not part of their plans. Johnson is not a star by any means but a reliable enough vet to be valuable to a good team at the right price (like, say, the Grizzlies).

McGruder (Heat) and Mbah-a-Moute (Clippers). I believe these two are intertwined: Luc was injured and McGruder was added to the Clipper's post-season roster.


Signings
(for the rest of the season)
Andrew Bogut (Warriors)
Yeah! Weird to say it but I've missed him on the Warriors. They've come so far in the last few years that it's hard to remember that Bogut was the original cornerstone star this dynasty was built on. He's been in Australia all year, should be in good enough shape to give 10-12 minutes per game going forward. I think this is a good pick up.

Danuel House (Rockets)
House has actually looked pretty good in limited minutes this season, if he gets some shine time in the post-season, they'll be happy to have him back next season.

Cam Reynolds (Wolves)
I don't know who this is.

Tim Frazier (Bucks)
Considering the Bucks will be without Mirotic and Divincenzo, Frazier could get see some playing time in the playoffs.

Jimmer Fredette (Suns)
Didn't exactly tear it up in his brief time in Phoenix, but looks like he'll be back next year.

Chris Chiozza (Rockets)
I don't know who this is.

Jawun Evans (Thunder)
Solid 2nd string PG, not sure the Thunder need him. But he'll be on a roster next year, I'm sure.

Jodie Meeks (Raptors)
Can't imagine Meeks will get much playing time going forward, but the Raptors do rely on a deep bench and I think that will maintain for at least the first coupla rounds of the playoffs, so we might see a little bit of Meeks.

Trevon Duval (Rockets)
Nice pickup! Doubt he'll play this post-season but they'll put him to work next year.

Christian Wood (Pelicans)
I always liked Wood but he's bounced around so much I kinda doubt he'll stick here. This is likely just a late season roster manipulation.

Walter Lemon Jr (Bulls)
Had some nice moments in his brief time in Chicago. I can see him coming back next year.

Greg Monroe (Sixers)
Some nice down-low depth for the playoffs, should play some early on but I'd be kinda surprised to see him on the Sixers next season.

Michael Carter-Williams (Magic)
I wonder if this is just a warm body to fill in for Isaiah Briscoe or if they think they can really use MCW.

Donatas Motiejunas (Spurs)
Shweet! I always loved Motiejunas, deep down I always knew he'd get to the Spurs eventually. I doubt we'll see much of him, likely just an emergency bench guy, but I'd like to see him back there next year.

Tyler Zeller (Grizzlies)
Hey, man, everyone can use a Zeller. I suspect this is just a roster manipulation, only 50/50 whether he'll be back there next year.


(multi-year deal)
Deonte Burton (Thunder)
Guess we'll see him in a Thunder uni next year.


Season Ending Injuries
(playoff teams)
Donte Divincenzo (Bucks) out with heel injury
Nikola Mirotic (Bucks) out with a thumb injury

Jusuf Nurkic (Blazers) out with a broken leg

Dante Exam (Jazz) out after knee surgery

Luc Mbah a Moute (Clippers) out after knee surgery

Patrick McCaw (Raptors) out with a thumb injury

James Ennis (Sixers) out with bruised quad
Allen Crabbe (Nets) out after knee surgery

Andre Roberson (Thunder) ruled out for a return from knee surgery 

Hard to imagine that the Bucks' fate would've revolved around Mirotic and/or Divincezno, but those guys knock down shots and guys like that are always handy have.

(non-playoff teams)

Jrue Holiday (Pelicans) out with strain abdominal

Brandon Ingram (Lakers) out with blood clots
Isiah Briscoe (Magic) out after knee surgery
Derrick Rose (Wolves) out with elbow injury
Jeff Teague (Wolves) out with foot injury
Kelly Oubre (Suns) out with thumb injury
CJ Miles (Grizzlies) out with foot injury
Tim Hardaway Jr (Mavs) out with leg injury
Robert Covington (Wolves) out with knee injury
Chandler Hutchinson (Bulls) out with toe injury
Miles Plumlee (Hawks) out after knee surgery
Lauri Markanen (Bulls) out with (fatigue?)
Josh Hart (Lakers) out after knee surgery
Frank Nkiliina (Knicks) out with a groin injury
Lebron James (Lakers) out with a groin injury
Devin Booker (Suns) out with ankle sprain

Ingram's blood clots are scary and worth keeping an eye on. But that perversely guarantees he'll be with the Lakers for the foreseeable future.


Retiring
Al Jefferson
Ahhhh, Big Al. Man, his bust out year with the 2013-14 Hornets briefly made me a Hornets fan (remember? Josh McRoberts was good that year...ahh, good times...). He bummed around the league for a lot of years, some of them were pretty good, most of them were kinda forgettable. But he was kinda the last of the old timey big men: back to the basket, beastly down low, didn't run the floor worth a shit, only looked to pass out of a double team, probably smoked cigarettes at halftime. Gonna miss you, Big Al.

Khris Humphries
Most famous for being played out like a chump by one of those Kardashians, Humphries was actually a really great rebounder in his day. So-so defender, so-so scoring skills but really had a nose for the ball. The kind of player that could've bee a legit star in the right system.

Dirk Nowtizki (Mavs)
Early reports are that he passed on joining the TNT crew--good for him! I hope for his sake that he avoids the media and sticks with the Mavs. He's obviously juiced in for life with Cuban and the Mavs organization, he can hang around Dallas and be a Metroplex legend for the rest of his life. Not a bad way to go. One of the best I ever saw, in his prime he was an unstoppable scorer and he can still score...but his defense has just gotten too awful for him to keep going. First ballot Hall of Famer.

Dwyane Wade (Heat)
Personally, I was never a Wade fan, always found his game rather boring and the cult of personality surrounding him inelegant. But he's clearly a Hall of Famer, won championships and he's a Miami mafia lifer. Even went out scoring 30 on Udonis Haslem night.

Udonis Haslem (Heat)
Dude, I was ready for him to retire before Lebron even arrived in Miami! Can't believe he lasted this long but good for him. Miami mafia for life, he got rings and made waaaaaaaay more money than he really deserved for playing basketball.


NCAA Final
Texas Tech 77-85 (OT) Virginia
My initial note: 1 minute into the game: each team is0/1 from the field with no turnovers, no offensive rebounds and no fouls. Yeah, 39 more of those and we'll have the first scoreless draw in the history of the NCAA tournament. At the first TV timeout (15:51): the score was 3-2. Yeah, got a pitcher's dual on our hands.
That said, both teams got frisky on offense before halftime, something about playing their doppelgangers inspired each squad to get adventurous with the ball. What looked destined to be a low-scoring contest turned into a frenzied free-for-all by the end of regulation. Fun game. But in OT, Tech ran out of gas and Virginia claimed their first title. Good for them. Losing to a #16 seed last year and becoming the champ this year is a hell of a turnaround.

2018-19 NCAA Final Four

Texas Tech 75-69 Gonzaga

Tech plays some good D, they're sneaky good with the ball and when they're hitting 3's, they're pretty goddamn good. That said, I still thought this was Gonzaga's L more than Tech's W. Gonzaga's offense just spun in circles throughout the 2nd half after a pretty good opening. I think it was less about Tech's defense, which was fine, and more about Tech's offense being able to keep pace in a way that caught the Zags off guard. Gonzaga should've won this game, they were the better team but their offense fell off and ground to a halt right as Tech made its move. Tech moves on, but again: they caught Michigan unable to knock down shots and then Gonzaga unable to put together a consistent game, so is Tech really this good or are they just catching bad nights from superior teams? Tech certainly doesn't suck, they deserve to be here, but its still hard to tell how good they really are and if they're really capable of giving Michigan State a game. We'll see.

Purdue 75-80 (OT) Virginia

Good game! Purdue's Carsen Edwards was money all night and he alone kept Purdue's offense afloat in this game, where Virginia shot well but didn't exactly play their best defense. Back and forth action, both teams raining 3's, felt like Purdue was gonna close it out, but UVA tied it up late on a full court pass and amazing finish (wow! That pass and finish should become one of the iconic images of the tourney for years to come, especially if UVA wins it all). In OT, Purdue kinda ran out of gas and Virginia pounced on their chance. Good W for Virginia, gotta feel bad for Purdue who had this one in their grasp.

Auburn 77-71 (OT) Kentucky

As a Cats fan this one was frustrating. If UK makes their free throws, they win this game easily. Auburn was already deep in foul trouble before halftime, felt like the opportunity was there for UK to exploit that with their size down low, methodically send all of Auburn's players to the bench, make free throws and salt this game away. But instead Auburn was able to get easy shots in the lane over and over again (how? UK's size advantage was massive) and Kentucky just couldn't figure out how to counter. Auburn's MO all year long has been their 3-point shooting but that's not what won this game for them, here they were more effective at knocking down 15 footers and getting to the foul line. And even as poorly as Kentucky played, they were able to get the game into OT, where they had chances to control the action. Yeah, I know this sounds bitchy but Kentucky really should've won this game and while Auburn played really well, even that was predicated on Kentucky failing to take advantage of their size. (Still don't understand the mock drafts: how are you watching this UK team and thinking that Keldon Johnson has more upside than PJ Washington? Based on what?)

Michigan State 68-67 Duke

Fun game! Duke had been playing with fire all through this tournament to the point where you wondered whether they would eventually get burned or that they were so destined to win it all that it didn't even matter if they played shaky. It was the former. Duke had been leaving the door open and Michigan State was the one that stole it late: nailed the big shots when they had to and kept Zion away from the ball for the last few minutes and that was it. This Duke team was wildly unbalanced, that #1 recruiting class was all by themselves out there and the tourney struggles finally caught up to them. This Michigan State team is not flashy or wildly talented but they're deep and well-disciplined and PG Cassius Winston controls the ball as well as anyone I've seen in this tourney. I think they're the team to beat from here.


Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)

Same as ever for Auburn: if they're hitting 3's, they can beat anyone; but if they're not, they can lose to anyone. That said, that game plan really only played out against North Carolina: Kansas was not at full strength and frankly Auburn handled them pretty easily and Kentucky was a familiar opponent (those division/conference teams make for anything-can-happens kinda contests) who bungled their chances to put Auburn away. But against UNC, Auburn scored, scored, scored and buried the Tar Heels in a way that could happen again to UVA. And UVA's defense does kinda allow that to happen: they dominate the top of the lane but can be beat over the top from the wings. I think Virginia has enough offense to counter Auburn's scoring and keep from getting buried. I like Virginia to play solid defense, knock down enough perimeter shots to match Auburn's attack and to hit their free throws down the stretch and pull away late. I like Virginia to win and cover.

Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.

2018-19 NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tournament it seemed plain that there were 8 teams better than everyone else: I'd rank them Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan. All are still alive, with Duke getting a serious scare from Central Florida (who played the game of their lives) and Kentucky getting a minor scare from Wofford (tricky little team actually). Throw in that the second tier (Texas Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Houston, LSU, Virginia Tech) was solid as well, then the fact that this particular Sweet Sixteen is the highest ranked of all time should not come as a shock to anyone and unless you were betting on serious upsets, no one's bracket is all that busted just yet. Throw in that the two interlopers (Oregon, Auburn) were both ranked in the pre-season top 25 and both just won their conference tourneys, well, this is as chalky as the Flint, Michigan water supply. Now we're ready for some upsets and some god damn good ball games!

EAST
Duke (-8) v Virginia Tech
Tech beat Duke earlier this year in their only meeting so though Duke is loaded with a crop of dudes already vying for next year's NBA Rookie of the Year Award, I expect Tech to come in heads up and balls out. We've seen Duke's fatal flaw already: Zion and Barrett are two of the best players in all of college basketball but the rest of that roster is not so impressive. If Tech can force Duke into plumbing their minimal depth, then an upset would be in the offing. Though Duke really is thin on the backside, I expect Zion and Barrett to have big games (and get all the calls) and cruise into the next round. I'll take Duke to win but Tech to cover.

LSU v Michigan State (-6.5)
LSU is a scrappy team that figures out how to win games late; being the favorite in the SEC tournament doomed them, however, because they're not a strong frontrunner type, rather they are a dangerous underdog type. Now they're back in the underdog role and I expect them to give Michigan State a helluva challenge. State is solid all over, not great at anything but not bad at anything either. If they play their best they should be better than LSU (who are playing with an interim coach and having recently suffered the death of one of their rotation players). This game will be fun for the first 35 minutes, whoever takes over late will steal it. I'll go with Michigan State to win but LSU to cover (oh, don't be surprised if this one goes to OT).


WEST
Gonzaga (-6.5) v Florida State
This is a rematch of last year's Sweet Sixteen match where Florida State blitzed Gonzaga to advance (only to lose to Michigan, who may await again). Gonzaga has won so far by playing their game: inside-out with bigs that can handle the ball and guards that never turn the ball over. State has won by scoring with great efficiency down low (and weathering the breakout of Ja Morant). This game will be a battle down low and I think foul trouble might make the difference, whoever is getting the calls will probably win the game. I dunno....I'll take Gonzaga, I just think there's more star power there and they'll get the breaks. Gonzaga to win and cover.

Michigan (-2) v Texas Tech
Michigan is really good on the perimeter, Tech is better down low. I think Michigan will need to hit 3's to win. Tech will need to slow the pace and score efficiently. Tough call, I'll go with Michigan to win and cover.


SOUTH
Virginia (-8) v Oregon
Oregon is on a ten game winning streak but the Pac-12 was not too inspiring this year and beating Wisconsin and UC-Irvine to get here is not blowing me away either. Virginia's grinding defense is dangerous in that they sometimes forget to score and can be bested by a relatively mediocre offensive output from their opponent. That said, I think UVA will be successful at controlling the tempo and scoring enough to comfortably win. I'll take Virginia to win and cover (in what will likely be the softest game of the Sweet Sixteen).

Purdue v Tennessee (-1)
This is tough to call because both of these squads are so unpredictable: capable of playing letter perfect games and capable of disappearing in the moment. Purdue won a share of the Big Ten regular season title but their out of conference schedule is kinda disappointing; I'm actually more impressed by Tennessee's 2nd place finish in the SEC because the SEC was unusually good this year and a win over Gonzaga, two wins over Kentucky and a hard fought L to Kansas suggest they've worked harder to get here than Purdue. In the tournament, Purdue made short work of Old Dominion and Villanova while Tennessee struggled with Colgate and Iowa. My gut is that Tennessee is the better team but I feel like Purdue is playing better right now. I'll take Purdue to win and cover. 


MIDWEST
North Carolina (-5.5) v Auburn
UNC was kinda up-and-down for most of the year but they're in a real groove right now. Coby White has emerged as for-real baller and he's leading a balanced team with good depth. Auburn is a 3-point shooting team that can beat anyone if they're hitting and lose to anyone if they're not. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout--for either team!--I'll think we'll know by halftime how this game will turn out. While it is certainly possible for Auburn to shock the Heels, I gotta go with North Carolina to win and cover. 

Houston v Kentucky (-2.5)
Houston put up gaudy numbers in their conference but outside of nice W's over Oregon and LSU, they have not played anyone as good as Kentucky this year. If Kentucky had PJ Washington (which I'm assuming they won't), then I would take Kentucky to easily win because I just think they'd enough scoring inside and out to outrun Houston. But since UK will likely be without their best scorer, this game becomes a real toss-up. I'll go with Kentucky (but only because I bleed blue) to win, Houston to cover.


So my potential Elite Eight:
Duke v Michigan State
I think Duke has the better talent but State is the better team. I'd take Michigan State.

Gonzaga v Michigan
This is the game we did NOT get last year. I think Gonzaga is the deeper team and the team ready to move on, I'd take Gonzaga.

Virginia v Purdue
Virginia is rolling right now, I just don't think Purdue could hang with them. I'd take Virginia.

North Carolina v Kentucky
UK beat them earlier this year but UNC is a much better team now and if UK doesn't have PJ Washington, I just don't see how they could hang. I'd take North Carolina.


Of these Sweet Sixteen games, only Virginia over Oregon seems like a lock to me. UNC-Auburn could end up being a runaway (depending on Auburn's 3pt%) but all the other games should be fascinating and down to the wire. The first weekend was kinda anti-climactic but that just makes this weekend all the more captivating.

2018-19 NBA Bric-a-brac (Week 19)

Firings
Dell Demps (Pelicans GM)
The Demps years were mostly not good for New Orleans. I understand the desire upon drafting Anthony Davis to get straight into win-now mode, but the moves they made left the Pelicans with a lumpy roster and no draft picks. So instead of building around Davis, they went for quick fixes when the foundation was never properly established. This year's roster is probably as good as its been in New Orleans in the Demps era and this is barely a playoff team. Not good. The only reason Demps hung around so long is because this is not an NBA team but rather an NFL-adjacent team that hasn't shown an understanding of how basketball works. The right GM could still build something interesting here but Demps didn't get it done.


Re-signings
Tim Connelly (Nuggets President of Basketball Operations)
The Connelly years have been moving in the right direction: hired the right coach, drafted well and even snagged some interesting free agents to give them a run into the post-season this year and a nice mix of youth and vets going forward.  I'd say he's earned himself a nice extension. 


Signings
(Remainder of season)
Pau Gasol (Bucks), Markieff Morris (Thunder), Corey Brewer (Kings),
Pau played for the last gasp of the Showtime Lakers, the grit-and-grind Thibodeau Bulls and the twilight of Pop's Spurs; this dude knows how to defend, knows how to score, knows how to play with stars, knows how to handle it on his own. He hasn't been a supremely effective player in the NBA for a few years now but he could be the perfect wily veteran for this Bucks team.
I know Morris has been hurt for most of the year but I still thought it was weird that the Pelicans let him go when they did--there something better waiting out there? Not sure how effective he will be but if he's got anything left, OKC is probably a good place for him.
Not sure Brewer is the right fit for the Kings but they could use a steady veteran down the stretch; Brewer will give them reliable defense and ball handling and a little bit of scoring for 10-15 minutes a night.

(Extension)
Eric Bledsoe (Bucks) (4yrs/$70m)
I think this is good for the Bucks: they're locked into a cornerstone player for a reasonable price establishing cost/roster certainty for the foreseeable future. Now they gotta re-sign Brogdon and figure out how to replace Middleton and Lopez this summer.

(Multi-year contracts)
John Jenkins (Knicks), Dairis Bertans (Pelicans), Henry Ellenson (Knicks), Ray Spalding (Suns)
These deals all strike me as late-season salary cap machinations rather than basketball moves (although I kinda like Ellenson with the Knicks, a low cost big body to go with whatever they end up doing this summer).


Waivings
Pau Gasol (Spurs), Tim Frazier (Pelicans), Isaiah Canaan (Bucks), Jodie Meeks (Raptors)
The Gasol era in San Antonio is over and was never as good as it might've been had they teamed up, say, five years earlier. As it is, Pau was mostly overpaid for what he brought to the Spurs and the Spurs never really had the proper spot to offer Pau for him to be his best. An amicable parting, I assume, but never as good as it should've been.
Frazier is a reliable 2nd string PG, I expect to see him back on a roster next year (possibly in New Orleans).
Canaan has bounced around for a while now, may or may not be back in the future (though he will be available for late-season roster manipulations, so wouldn't be surprised to see him getting signed by the end of the season for a team he'll never actually play for).
As a Kentucky fan I implore you to poor one out for Jodie Meeks. An absolutely electric scorer in NCAA (the original Malik Monk), never quite found the right situation in the NBA, derailed by injuries, hung around so long just on pure heart and talent. I wish I had nicer things to say about his basketball career but I'd definitely put Meeks among my all-time Wildcat faves.


Retiring
Channing Frye (Cavs)
Has confirmed (on Twitter, if I'm not mistaken) that this will be his last season in the NBA. Man, with Dirk, D-Wade and Vinsanity sucking up all the attention, doesn't feel like Frye will get his proper send off. Frye is not a Hall of Famer but he was kinda the original stretch-4 and played a pivotal role on some really good teams. Missed a year in Phoenix, then came back and played 82 games in 2013-14 (that team was loaded with Comeback and Most Improved candidates), then signed with Orlando, which was a conduit to the Lebron Cavs...where he kinda languished. *smh* He was exactly what they needed but they never quite figured out what to do with him (I'd call that 'the Lebron effect'). Not an all-time great player but a good one and significant in terms of the evolution of the game over the last decade.


Injuries
Omari Spellman (Hawks)
Spellman is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain. Spellman's rookie year has been fine but nothing superlative, wouldn't be surprised if they shut him down for the rest of the season with an eye toward getting him some Summer League run.

2018-18 Pointless NBA Trade (Obligatory Anthony Davis Edition)

First off: the Pelicans should not trade Anthony Davis before the deadline, they would be better served by waiting til the summer when the draft order is known and the full range of possible teams/packages are on the table (the Celtics, for example, possibly the Raptors and Blazers, too). That said, only a handful of teams are really capable of being a part of the Anthony Davis sweepstakes anyway (and those squads that would think of taking a flyer on him now and flipping Davis in the summer are few and far between and probably not worth considering). But if the Pelicans are going to trade him now, I would suggest forcing Solomon Hill (the Pelicans' worst contract) to the 'winner' and then they should go ahead and move Holiday and Mirotic (the Pelicans' 1st and 3rd largest contracts), as well. Go ahead and remake the whole team from top to bottom because if you're gonna lose Davis, then you may as well clean house and get rid of everyone (with the exception of Julius Randle, still very cheap for his production (*)).

So with all that in mind, here's two trades:

Nuggets get Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill; Pelicans get Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray, Micheal Porter

and

Clippers get Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic; Pelicans get Danilo Gallinari, Avery Bradley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Worth noting that the Nuggets have a built in home court advantage (altitude) that should suit Davis's desire to play for a winner, a good coach (Malone) who has a knack for mixing and matching lineups, a legit super fucking badass (Jokic) to pair up with and a decent collection of weird talent, even after the trade. The Nuggets would lose their main playmaker in Murray, but they'd still have Harris, Barton and Craig for wing-scoring. They would surely immediately stretch Hill, saving them a few bucks to find a PG in the off-season (Eric Bledsoe would be more Murray-like but Ricky Rubio's passing would fit nicely with that crew). They'd also be giving up Paul Millsap (who they would likely cut in the off-season anyway) and Michael Porter (still could turn out to be the steal of the 2018 draft). The team could still have the same problems he had in New Orleans, but putting AD and Jokic together is tantalizing--though the Nuggets would really only have about 3 months to make it work, that 2020 trade deadline would be looming from day one.

The Clippers would get a vet PG to build around and an expiring wing scorer to replace Gallinari. They would give up Avery Bradley and their hot young PG (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)--is that a direction they want to go in? They'd be paying a lot more for an aging PG, but in the summer they'd have a ton of money to lure in vets to go with him (Kawhi?) and/or money to re-up Tobias Harris (and maybe Mirotic). The Clippers would get older but not significantly more expensive and would still leave them pretty limber for making moves in the off-season.

Notice in these deals I left out draft picks, which is presumably what the Pelicans are gonna want for Davis but by adding Gilgeous-Alexander, Murray and Porter they'd be getting 1st rounders with plenty of upside and since the Nuggets 2019 pick is already spoken for, I'd suggest they're better than the picks they'd be getting back anyway. The Pelicans would have one more year of Gallinari (an effective Mirotic-like wing scorer) and Bradley (solid defender, if suspect offensive talent) and a team option on Paul Millsap (at $30m, I would expect them to let him go). One kooky quirk in these deals: the Pelicans would end up with the three youngest players and the three oldest players, so some youth to root for and some vets to hold the post-Davis architecture together.

Look, the Pelicans are so built around Anthony Davis that nothing will look as good next year. When they move him (and they're gonna, sooner or later), they may as well remodel the whole house. Again, I'd keep Julius Randle (player option for next year, I'd ask him nicely to stick around) which would give them a lineup of PG Gilgeous-Alexander, SG Murray, SF Randle, PF Gallinari, C Okafor with Payton, Clark, Frazier, Moore, Miller, Porter, and Diallo off the bench. Granted, that team is young, they would struggle for a year or two, but a year of tanking is all part of the process (trust it, it works!). Speaking of: why not bring in Sam Hinkie to lead to the rebuild? Dell Demps should've been run out years ago, letting him trade Davis and Holiday on his way out is like letting the SP take credit for an intentional walk before calling to the bullpen. And since Coach Gentry likely wouldn't want to hang around either, I'd suggest going for either Jeff Hornacek or Fred Hoiberg to guide the new look Pels.

Yeah, weird. This absolutely won't happen because small market owners are terrified of teardowns like this. But losing Anthony Davis is going to be so terrifying that they may as well tear off all the band-aids at once. Let it bleed, New Orleans. Find your young core, build through the draft, love the basketball and trust the process.


(*) I'd keep Jahlil Okafor, too. He's very cheap and with crazy changes afoot, this is probably his last best chance to come alive. At his price point and with the low post-AD expectations, may as well give him one last chance to wow.