2024-25 NFL Playoffs (Conclusion)

(Well I got pretty lazy in January, gonna have to go back and remember all this)

Division Round

Texans 14-23 Chiefs

Another ho-hum Chiefs performance but they got the late TD (as usual) to seal it. The Texans hung with the Chiefs and had their chances to steal it. 

Commanders 45-31 Lions

Whoa! This was the upside down game: the Lions just kept turning the ball over and the Commanders kept making them pay. That said, it was actually still a game in the 4th quarter but the Lions were just spent. The Commanders are a nice story and the Lions had been so dominant all season long that it felt like this would be a fairly easy game for the Lions, but they just could not get out of their own way on this day. Great W for the Commanders!

Rams 22-28 Eagles

Weird game. The Eagles had 3 long TD runs (a 78-yarder and 62-yarder for Saquon and a 43-yarder for QB Hurts) but otherwise the Rams played superior defense and really put it on the Eagles to get stops late in the game. The Rams drove into the red zone but couldn't stop the clock and their opportunities just dried up late. The Eagles were the better team, they made the plays, they scored the points, but the Rams played their asses off and were a handful of plays away from stealing this. 

Ravens 25-27 Bills

The story of the game was the Raven turnovers in the 1st half and then the Bills just holding on for dear life down the stretch. One could argue that the Ravens were better or that this was the proper outcome but I'll take a different tack: the Ravens and the Bills were basically the exact same team this season, their offenses were virtually identical and the defenses were similar enough, too. So when one looks at how the Bills were unable (again) to get past the Chiefs, I would suggest that is exactly what the Ravens would've done, too.  At any rate, both teams are totally capable of beating the Chiefs--and both did during the regular season!--but the Bills faltered and I think the Ravens would have, too.  

Conference Championships

Commanders 23-55 Eagles

The Commanders just kept turning it over and the Eagles just kept putting up points. (I had family stuff going on this day, was in and out of this game--but the Eagles had more points every time I checked back!) Apparently the familiarity of divisional rivals helped the veteran squad rather than the upstart squad this time around. The Eagles were a weird team this season: everyone was down about how last season ended, they had some nice W's but never seemed as good as the Lions or Vikings, got overshadowed in their division by the emergence of Jayden Daniels and even though RB Barkley had a great season, it felt like all the behind-the-scenes talk was of how everyone hated the coach. So even though the Eagles were good from beginning to end this season, they were never anyone's focus--and what attention they did get was mostly disappointing. Well, they were the tops in the NFC this season and even though they were right there all along, somewhow no one saw it coming. 

Bills 29-32 Chiefs

Okay, I'm a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan and, yeah, I'm pretty salty about losing to the Chiefs every god damn year. But, man, as a general sports fan: I don't like these Chiefs, I don't like the way they win. I'm not a hater, I admire athletic greatness and great teams: I didn't hate on the Brady-Belichick Pats or the KD Warriors or the Saban Crimson Tide or the Yankees back in the 1990s or the run the Astros had, I don't hate on Bayern Munich for winning the Bundesliga every year. I'm all for the best teams being the best. I'm not saying they suck, I fully acknowledge that Mahomes is one of the all time greats. And if the Chiefs just destroyaed everyone by 3 TD's every week, I'd be cool with them. Or if they were crafty veterans that figured out different ways to beat people, I'd be cool with them.  My complaint about the Chiefs is that they get lucky. They need 2-3 calls from the refs every week that no other team in the league gets in order to win. Yeah, I said it: they win by special dispensation over and over again. They are a good team, they have a solid pass rush and a great QB and that keeps them in games; but its the love from the refs that get them over the top every time. And I'm fucking tired of it! Again, I don't hate on winners, but I get inured to the ridiculously lucky. And that's who the Chiefs are. We'll see if their lucks holds out.

Super Bowl

Chiefs 22-40 Eagles

Most folks thought this was a boring game but, man, the league has demanded that this is the only way the Chiefs lose, so the Eagles had to run up the score to even have a chance, so unless you're a Chiefs fan--the game HAD to be boring! And for my part....I loved every second of it! Word is that when the Eagles were up 40-6 in the 4th quarter, QB Hurts was begging to keep runing it up and I completely agree. Let the stomping continue! Indeed, the Chiefs scored 16 points after that and Mahomes was able to pull together some reasonable stats after arguably his worst performance as a pro, so the scoreline actually doesn't even suggest how bad a thrashing this was. The Eagles did everything they wanted on offense until they just stopped wanting anything by the 4th quarter and on defense they kept Mahomes so bottled up for 3 quarters, that the Chiefs had flat out nothing for most all of the game. 

If the Chiefs had won by this scoreline I'd tip my cap to them but that was never going to happen; if the Chiefs had honestly engineered a solid W, I'd tip my cap to the them, but the Eagles were too good for that. But if the Chiefs had won this game the same way they acheived most all of their W's this season, man, I might've just stopped watching football for a while. Dead serious! I like all the sports and if the NFL wants to turn it into a shit league, I'll just move on to something else. But that didn't happen, the under-the-radar Eagles crushed the barely-getting-by Chiefs and frankly that's what should have happened. (And I'm currently confident that the Bills and Ravens and others will de-throne the Chiefs for real next year--the key is to stomp the shit out of them!)

2024-25 NFL Playoffs (Division Round)

Chargers 12-32 Texans

Well, I thought the Chargers had turned a corner, thought Coach Harbaugh brought a new mindset, thought QB Herbert was ready to level up, thought the Chargers were ready to make a move. Nope. Same ol' Chargers. They flat out sucked. The Texan pass rush was effective and the secondary had some moments but really it was the Chargers sucking that produced the score line. Are the Texans ready to move on?

Steelers 14-28 Ravens

Yawn. Every year the Steelers bluster their way to 7th seed in the AFC and then they get blown up in the playoffs because they're not actually any good. This year was no exception. Didn't even think the Ravens played all that well--they didn't have to! 

Broncos 7-31 Bills

The Broncos had a good year: 2nd year of the Coach Payton regime, rookie QB, frisky defense, took a nice step forward this season. And when they opened up with a bomb for a TD, their 7-0 lead had a real edge to it. And then....nothing happened. The Bills were pretty great at home this year and it was only a matter of time before they pounced on the Broncos. 

Packers 10-22 Eagles

Ugh! The Packers really sucked, the blame will go to QB Love--and he did suck!--but frankly I thought the whole team sucked. As bad as they played, the game was still winnable in the 4th quarter--so how bad were the Eagles (well, not quite as bad as the Packers). This was not even a fun game to watch.

Commanders 23-20 Bucs

THIS, this was the game this weekend! Back and forth but I really thought the Bucs were on their way, but a clumsy 4th quarter fumble upended their brilliant defensive stand just minutes earlier. Giving the Commanders a second crack at the red zone late in the game was too much to overcome. Everyone loves QB Daniels now, and he's been ballin' all season long, but I still thought the Bucs should've won this game.

Vikings 9-27 Rams

Yawn! QB Darnold had such a nice season...until the last 2 weeks, when suddenly he turned tentative, held the ball too long, took too many sacks and single-handedly stalled the Vikings offense. The Rams were nice and they knew that Darnold was wobbly, but this was not as massive a win as the score implies--it was just that the Vikings were that bad. 

Division Round:

Texans @ Chiefs (-9) (o/u 41.5)

Are the Texans ready to beat the #1 seed? They might be able to move the ball on the Chiefs and their D-line will be getting after Mahomes, so if they can force turnovers and break an occasional big play, they can hang. The Chiefs haven't exactly been plowing opponents lately, they have been winning late all season long, snatching W's in the final minutes and I expect that to continue. The Texans have a good pass rush, Mahomes won't have an easy time of it. But Mahomes is still the best and I fully expect a typical 4th quarter recovery after a slog of a game. Chiefs 20-13 (Texans and the under)

Commanders @ Lions (-8.5) (55.5)

Everyone is big on the Commanders at the moment, been a while since Washington football has mattered in January and Daniels is giving them some hope. That said, the Commander defense is not good and the Lions offense is arguably the best in the league. I like Daniels as much as the next guy, but I don't see this game particularly competitive. I think the Lions are rested and ready, they've had a bunch of injuries on defense but I don't think that stings them this week (although it'll hamper them in the coming weeks). I like the Lions to score steadily (though perhaps they pull off the gas in the 4th quarter) and get enough stops on defense to rather easily win this game. Lions 34-17 (Lions and the under)

Rams @ Eagles (-6.5) (42.5)

The Rams have veteran savvy, a good coach, a good QB and enough youth to keep the intensity high; but they have a so-so offensive line and so-so defensive line and I don't see them getting turnovers, so even at their best, I just don't think they're better than a final 8 squad. As for the Eagles, they've got arguably the best O-line in the league, a great RB in his prime, excellent WR's and a pass catching TE, and a QB I've always kinda loved....so why isn't this offense better? Some say it is the scheme, which would suggest that now is the time to pull the governors off and go full throttle, we'll see if they do that. So while at first I suggest that the Rams aren't good enough and the Eagles are better, let me flip it now and suggest that if the Eagles don't bring their best game, then the savvy Rams might hang around and steal it. I dunno, man, could go either way, I mean, the Eagles should win but maybe they won't (meh, I'll take 'em anyway). Eagles 20-16 (Rams and the under).

Ravens (-1.5) @ Bills (51.5)

And we come to the game of the week. The two best teams in the AFC (sorry, Chiefs), the two best QBs in the game right now (sorry, Chiefs), two crazed fan bases that have been denied too long (f yourself, Chiefs!), should be a barn burner, right? Uh....I kinda don't think so. I think this game will end up being a blowout. Here's the thing: if RB Henry gets off on the Bills defense, then the game is over; if he doesn't, then I think the Raven offense completely sputters and the Bills win big. Derrick Henry is the key: if he's on, the Ravens will win easily, if not, then I say the Bills win easily. Could go either way but what I'm suggesting is that the 4th quarter of this game will be a dud. Either way, the tongues will be wagging on Monday morning, and either Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen will be taking all the blame. So, even though this is the game everyone is waiting for, I think it might be over--one way or the other--by halftime. (Is now an awkward time to point out that I am a life long Buffalo Bills fan?) I'm going Bills 27-16 (Bills and the under--but if you wanna bet on the Ravens, just flip the score, but either way, I think the Under in this game is the lock of the week, I just can't see both of these teams scoring a ton)

2024-25 NFL Playoffs (Wild Card)

Chargers (-3) @ Texans (o/u (41.5)

I like the way the Chargers are playing lately, they're getting stronger and more reliable on both sides of the ball. The Texans, on the other hand, haven't gotten better at anything all season long. The Texans are a nice team in a terrible division, I think they are the weakest squad in the AFC playoffs. Gotta go with the Chargers, 27-14 (Chargers and the under).

Steelers @ Ravens (-9.5) (44.5)

The Steelers make the playoffs year after year no matter how terrible that offense is--I just don't know how they do it! They haven't won in the playoffs in eons, but really haven't deserved to be a post-season team in eons more. The Ravens have kinda flipped: after being a defensive stalwart with a mediocre offense for years, they are now a dominant attacking squad with a so-so defense. Can the Steelers stop the Ravens running game? I don't see it happening. Can the Steelers score enough to keep this competitive in the 4th quarter? I don't see that happening, either. Ravens 31-10 (Ravens and the under)

Broncos @ Bills (-8.5) (47.5)

The Broncos have been up and down, but I think they're a pretty good squad with a stingy defense and a plucky rookie QB. I don't think they're as good as the Bills, though, who have the ability to pile up points as well as anyone in the league. I like the Broncos to hang into the 3rd quarter. but the slightest mistake will bury them. The Bills will score and the Broncos won't keep up. Bills 31-21 (Bills and the over)

Packers @ Eagles (-5) (45.5)

This is the game I find the most difficult to project. If the Eagles bring their A game, they can roll up the Packers with a quickness; but if they don't, the Packers could hang and be a real danger late in the game. The Packers are young but they had a good playoff win last year and overcame a potentially crippling QB injury this season while surviving one of the toughest divisions I've seen in ages. The Eagles at their best are the better team but anything short of their best makes this a rather even match. I think the Eagles hold off a late rally and get the W. Eagles 27-24 (Eagles and the over)

Commanders @ Bucs (-3) (50.5)

I kept expecting the Commanders to fall off at some point because they had a maddening quality: they won games they should've lost and lost games they should've won. A young team with a good rookie QB can get on a roll or mature faster than expected, but the Commanders have ups and downs that are more like a veteran squad--that I don't understand at all! The Bucs have been much maligned but I think they've been a pretty good squad all year long, with some good W's and playing a tougher schedule than I think anyone noticed. I think the Bucs are the better team and should probably finish this game off; but the Commanders are unpredictable, wouldn't be shocked if they blew up and won this game. I think the Bucs get an early lead, control the game, hold off a late rally. Bucs 26-20 (Bucs and the under)

Vikings @ Rams (-2.5) (47.5)

Man, the Vikings missed the #1 seed by a wisp and just like that, they've not even a favorite in the playoffs. The Vikings just piled up W's all season long, with a strong defense and an excellent passing game. The Rams have a savvy QB that can get it done when the time comes, but I just don't think the Rams defense is good enough to hang. This should be a fun back and forth kinda game but I think the Vikings are the better team and will have more points by game's end. Vikings 34-31 (Vikings and the over)

2024-25 NFL (Week 15)

Games I saw (some of):

Rams 12-6 Niners

Yawn! A real snooze of a game. Deebo Samuel dropped a pass that might've been a TD, biggest play of the game. The Rams did well last week against the Bills and kept it going by catching the Niners giving up on the season and, suddenly, that surge I thought the Rams might go on (and then assumed they wouldn't) is back on! I thought a surging Cards might have been a more dangerous playoff team but a surging Rams squad is gonna be a real pain in the ass. 

Bills 48-42 Lions

Fun game! The Bills owned the 1st quarter, from then on it was a boat race where the Bills managed to hang on. Fun but there wasn't much defense. The Lions needed this game more than the Bills did, they've got the Vikings and Eagles breathing down their necks. So even though the Lions have been the best team on both sides of the ball, suddenly they might be going on the road to open the post-season. The Bills (by which I mean: Josh Allen) are rolling and if they can get some luck with Mahomes's ankle, they might still snag the #1 seed in the AFC.

Bears 12-30 Vikings

The Bears are not a fun team to watch and that's unfortunate--I love a good youth movement! But they are better than last year and I presume they'll make a leap in coaching (Mike Vrabel interested in this gig?) and might be pretty good....next year. The Vikings are a nice team, quietly piling up W's, might still win the division, might get the #1 seed in the NFC--all on the table for them. This is a good team and I still think no one's noticed. 

The rest of the slate:

Chiefs 21-7 Browns. Browns have given up on football; Chiefs may have lost Mahomes for a while, we'll see how bad his high ankle sprain turns out to be.

Bengals 37-27 Titans. The Titans have at times this year impressed me in the O-line and D-line play, especially considering how useless the skill players are arrayed around them; but even the good parts of the team are calcifying and I think the Titans just don't have enough talent (or will) to win any more. Do you see how bad the Bengals D is? They gave up 27 to the frickin' Titans!

Commanders 20-19 Saints. The Saints came back late, went for 2 after the buzzer, I respect that but I didn't much care for the play call. The Commanders are still getting by, I figured they were due for a pullback but I think they can keep winning. 

Ravens 35-14 Giants. The Giants have given up on football; the Ravens need to pass to set up the run, that is their mission from here til the final gun. 

Cowboys 30-14 Panthers. The Cowboys are actually playing their best ball of the season but I don't think anyone has noticed; the Panthers are having fun but that doesn't mean they're going to win games.

Jets 32-25 Jaguars. Yeah, I don't care.

Dolphins 12-20 Texans. The Texans are weirdly uninspiring but they are clearly the class of their division. The Dolphins are done, I guess. 

Colts 13-31 Broncos. The Colts have given up on football. The Broncos are still figuring out how to play with consistency, but they're rounding into shape going into the playoffs, they won't be an easy out. 

Steelers 13-27 Eagles. The Steelers can be dangerous as an underdog, but as soon as you start to believe in them, I think they will disappoint. Nice W for the Eagles, who seem disgruntled even while winning. 

Patriots 17-30 Cards. Yeah, I don't care.

Bucs 40-17 Chargers. Wow, 40-burger on the Chargers? Dang. The Bucs are getting better at the right time. The Chargers are nice but not yet there. 

Packers 30-13 Seahawks. Good win for the Packers; the Seahawks may be in trouble if QB Smith is out for a while. 

Falcons 15-9 Raiders. Yeah, I don't care. (Are we gonna see QB Penix next week?)

2024-25 NFL (Week 14)

Games I watched (some of):

Packers 31-34 Lions

Good game! The Packers played well, the Lions played just a little better. Good to see the Lions get it done against a tough division opponent, good to see the Packers bringing it down to the wire. These are both good teams, the NFC playoffs are gonna be rugged this year. 

Panthers 16-22 Eagles

Yeah, this game was just what I thought it would be: the Panthers have been getting better lately (they bottomed out earlier than anyone else in the league) but still aren't actually good enough to win games--but they are good enough to put a scare in the best teams, such as the Chiefs and Eagles, neither of whom came close to covering the spread on the lowly Panthers. The Eagles didn't seem that interested but they came alive when they needed to, did what needed to be done. Keep an eye on the Panthers if you like teams that cover the spread while losing. 

Bills 42-44 Rams

Fun game! After watching a game with seemingly no defense (no turnovers, for example), its worth remembering that the different in the game was a blocked punt. If the Bills just get that punt off as normal, there's a chance they get the stop and....ah, who am I kidding? There were no "stops" in this game! Hell, it probably benefitted the Bills to get the ball back that much quicker. As a Bills fan it is disconcerting that QB Allen put up 42 points on the road in a flawless performance and still didn't get the W. But, the Rams are wily veterans and they made their stand at home. Good for them. 

Chargers 17-19 Chiefs

The Chargers did nothing at all in the 1st half and were only down 13-0 at halftime. Then the Chargers pretty well dominated the 2nd half but got the FG instead of the third TD and that was all the opening that Mahomes needed to steal the game. The Chiefs don't blow people out, they just get by and they seem able to do that with the bestest or wortest of opponents....but we'll see how long that lasts. As for the Chargers, well, they almost knocked off the champs but...they didn't...so....nice uniforms.

Bengals 27-20 Cowboys

Jeez, Cowboys, all you had to do was not screw up the blocked punt, run out the clock, kick an FG and you'd get the W at home. Instead, you muffed the blocked punt (turning a great play into a 1st down for the other team) and watched helplessly as QB Burrow carved you up and covered the spread (and we come to my real consternation). Oh, Cowboys. I thought this game would've featured a lot more scoring as the Bengals have a great offense and a terrible defense and the Cowboys are kinda middle of the pack in both. More of a barnburner than I would've thought but the Cowboys still managed to look awful. 

The rest of the slate:

Jags 10-6 Titans. Yeah, I don't care.

Jets 26-32 Dolphins. Yeah, I don't care.

Falcons 21-42 Vikings. The Falcons ran out of gas, the Vikings just kept going. 

Saints 14-11 Giants. Yeah, I don't care.

Browns 14-27 Steelers. Thought the Browns might give the Steelers a game but QB Winston just can't get through a game without giving it to the other team, just a matter of time before the Steelers sealed the victory.

Raiders 13-28 Bucs. The Raiders tried but they're just not good, the Bucs are playing their best ball right now--NFC playoffs are gonna be rugged. 

Seahawks 30-18 Cards. Thought the Cards would overtake the Seahawks but losing to them twice in the last 3 weeks has pretty much finished their season. 

Bears 13-38 Niners. Thought the Bears might hustle their way to a result against the fading Niners but it turns out the Niners still have enough to beat a not-good team. 

2024-25 NFL (Week 13)

Games I watched (some of):

Dolphins 17-30 Packers

The Packers came to play, the Dolphins did not, this was over quick. The Dolphins made every conceivable mistake in the 1st quarter and were only marginally better from then on. The Packers moved the ball well, took full advantage of Dolphin miscues and piled up a nice lead right away. The Dolphins are playing better but the frozen tundra was not kinda to them. If the Packers play like this every week they might be able to catch the Vikings and Lions slipping.

Raiders 17-19 Chiefs

The story here is that the Raiders had the ball well within FG range ready to run out the clock and the center mis-snapped the ball and the Chiefs got the fumble to secure the victory. Yeah, the Raiders literally gave it away instead of getting the W. The Raiders have given up, the only thing buoying them at this point is the petty bitterness of division games (you know: the Raiders beat the Chiefs every year, this final should not be shocking), and they do have TE Bowers, the Offensive ROY, I'd say. The Chiefs play to their level of competition, as exhibited by an absolute gift from the Raiders and an OT tussle with the Panthers in the last coupla weeks; the Chiefs have to scuffle at the end of games to beat arguably the two worst teams in the league. That said, they could do the same thing to the Bills, Lions, Eagles, Steelers, etc. I wouldn't count them out just yet but this team gets a little more Mahomes-dependent every week, he's the best in the world right now (*), but the hills he has to climb only get higher from here. Good win--lucky win!--but those count, too. 

Steelers 44-38 Bengals

Okay, okay, hold up a second here: don't go looking at this and thinking the Steelers offense will be regularly putting up 40-burgers, nah nah nah. That ain't happening. The Bengals defense is that bad (like, italics bad!) and this game was a mix of sloppy and opportunistic. Nice to know that the Steelers can do this from time to time but I wouldn't count on seeing this too many more times. QB Burrow is having one of the greatest seasons that no one will ever notice that I've ever seen (**) but its not enough, the Bengals are in too deep of a hole and just not built to win games, so I think Burrow-to-Chase might break some records but they've got no shot at the playoffs. The Steelers have a really good pass rush and a rickety offense (what I envisioned the Kirk Cousins Falcons to look like) that can sneak up on ya. But this kinda of offensive output is an anomaly. I still feel like the Steelers are due for a correction but they're getting their moxy going now, might seal the division for them. 

Cards 22-23 Vikings

The Cards were the better team for, like, 58 minutes of this game. But the Vikings are savvy and they got it done down the stretch. Good W. The Cards are playing their best ball right now, moving in the right direction, I thought they would catch the Seahawks, we'll see. The Vikings are good on D, kinda good on offense, not overpowering, (not particularly fun to watch, either), but they get W's, they're a tough out. I thought the Packers would pass them in the standings, I guess I still think that.

Niners 10-35 Bills

This was not the Niners' night. The lake effect snow was just getting going right as the game started and the slopfest in every way benefitted the Bills and doomed the Niners. The Niners have had a rough season, injuries all over the place, no continuity, tough L's, this game was just waiting to punish them and it did. The Bills didn't really even have to work hard. QB Allen completed a hot route to WR Cooper, who got stood up by the corner, Cooper was able to lateral the back to Allen, who got credit for a receiving TD of his own pass. That kinda game: the Bills were having fun and the Niners were not. The Niners are done for the year, I'd say, they might spark alive in a division game, they might have some spoiler in them, but they don't feel like they're going on a run to me. 

Eagles 24-19 Ravens

I thought the Eagles were better. The Ravens are a reverse of their usual selves: their ground and pound offense can pummel people but their defense is sketchy at best. I though they'd get hot enough to skip past the Steelers but I dunno, man, if that running game doesn't get going, they lose. The Eagles are getting hot at the right time, their offense is in a nice groove, their pass rush is evolving nicely, this the team we thought they were going to be last year. Lions-Eagles NFC game is gonna be a good one, already looking forward to it. 

The rest of the slate:

Bears 20-23 Lions. Called this one: I thought the Lions would run up a nice lead and then mail in the 4th quarter, with the Bears furiously trying to come back. Yup, pretty much. The scuffling as the clock ran out got Coach Eberfluss fired (hate to be that guy but....yeah), perhaps a new hand on the rudder will bring some late season success. The Bears aren't good but they play hard, they're frisky, they're out beat people, they just can't get it done; the Lions are just good at every phase of the game, they rolling right now. 

Giants 20-27 Cowboys. I think NYG have given up life, I don't expect them to be particularly competitive down the stretch, they're playing for that #1 pick, but they look capable of piling up garbage numbers. The Cowboys are actually playing pretty good right now, not great but strangely dangerous. 

Chargers 17-13 Falcons. QB Cousins just doesn't look healthy, certainly isn't playing well; a pretty good Cousins and this team could win games and be mildly dangerous in the post-season, but without him, I'd be kinda shocked if rookie QB Penix came off the bench and got W's at this point of the season; I think the Falcons may be done. The Chargers are a good defense and a frisky offense and a coach that seems in control; they can beat anyone and don't see quite as likely to lose to anyone they way have in years past; I think I kinda like this team to finally get over the hump and make a nice playoff run (just like I have...in years past). Good W for the Chargers to take a division leader on the road. 

Colts 25-24 Patriots. I wondered which team was more likely to gack it away. It was the Colts. 

Seahawks 26-21 Jets. NYJ have given up on life, they just aren't good on offense and the D that has been dominant lately don't seem that dominant this year; the season has been a disaster and they're all ready for Cancun. The Seahawks have a great passing game but I'm not sure what else they got, kinda felt like they'd slide out of the playoffs but they are frisky and should score a few more W's. Not a blowout victory, but a good W on the road for the Seahawks. 

Titans 19-42 Commanders. I missed on this one: I thought the Commanders were riding too high, ready for a fall and likely to treat the Titans with too little regard. I actually kinda the O-line and D-line on the Titans, its the lack of playmakers on either side of the ball that keeps this team from winning, they're not good but they're not a complete disaster. A longshot, but I thought the Titans would give the Commanders a game. Not so much. The C's dominated from beginning to end. A good W for a young tema, wrapping a game they should've won isn't as easy as it sounds, kudos to the C's for keeping the winning vibe going. 

Texans 23-20 Jags. The Texans haven't gotten better at anything all season long. They're okay, they don't suck and their division is a disaster area, so I fully expect them to make the playoffs, but I don't expect them to last long because they seem just to the high side of mediocre to me. I don't understand why the Jags suck so bad, I thought they were poised to have a growth year and that did not happen, they've pretty much sucked all year. I don't know why and I have no idea if they've given up or not because I can't read anything about this team (they hate the coach, maybe?). Texans needs to not lose and they didn't, good W for a young team.  

Rams 21-14 Saints. The Saints started the season with two massive victories and have done absolutely nothing since. Not sure if they've given up, I just think they're not very good. I thought the Rams might be the veteran savvy team that pulls it together and steals a wobbly division but I don't think so; I love QB Stafford as much as the next guy (he's the only reason the Rams win a game like this on the road), but I just think this roster is too thin all round to get to the next level. A road W in the NFL is always something to applaud, we'll see if it inspires the Rams to get moving. 

Bucs 26-23 (OT) Panthers. The Panthers have been playing much better the last few weeks, once you've given up, you can begin to build something new and the Panthers reached that point earlier than any other team, hence they've actually be balling lately. The Bucs are ready to steal the division from the Falcons, they just need to pile up W's and though this match wasn't a stunning victory, it was a road W in the division, nice work. 

Browns 32-41 Broncos. Saw none of this but the highlights looked fun. The Browns have a good defense and a terrible offense (like the Steelers, but opposite of the Bengals and Ravens); so when the offense shows up, the defense can keep them in the game, but when it doesn't the defense just collapses. Here there was some offense and some defense, enough to make the game fun to watch but never enough to really challenge for the W. The Broncos are in a good groove, they're gonna be a tough out in the playoffs. 

(*) I'm not saying Mahomes is the greatest of all-time, he's still got a ways to go there. But Mahomes is absolutely positively clearly the best QB in the game right now. 

(**) My thought was like Andre Dawson's MVP season with the godawful Cubs....but Dawson did win the MVP and Burrow will be piling up 5th place votes at best. The MLB, NBA and NHL casually produce good stats/bad team guys but the kind of numbers Burrow is putting up generally wins games in football, but the Bengal defense is truly that bad. 

2024-25 NFL (Week 12)

AFC

Now:

1 Chiefs

2 Bills

3 Steelers

4 Texans

5 Ravens

6 Chargers

7 Broncos

I think that's (pretty much) your playoff lineup for the AFC. I like the Bills to overtake the Chiefs for #1 and I like the Ravens to win their division and for the Steelers to drop to #7. But I think those 7 teams are the 7 that will be in the playoffs.

East: The Bills are going to win this division. The Dolphins are playing their best ball of the season but I just don't see them catching up to the pack. The Jets suck and the Pats are playing for a draft pick (though I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up a coupla unexpected wins).  

North: I've watched the Steelers a lot this year and I'm telling ya: their offense stinks. As they head into division play, I expect them to lose a few more times. I'm not a huge Ravens guy (I'm telling ya: their defense stinks) but I think they're better than the Steelers an will sneak past them to take the division. The Bengals are starting to turn it around but they've dug too deep a hole and their D is suspect. The Browns have given up on the season but I think they'll play hard down the stretch and could play spoiler, but they can't make the post-season.

South: The Texans are a sloppy so-so squad but they're better than the Colts, who still have no identity 12 weeks deep in the season. The Jags just aren't up for winning and the Titans, while I like their D-line and O-line, have no offensive talent at all. 

West: The Chiefs are the class of the division and I'd be surprised if they didn't win, but they're not a dominant squad, they are proof that having the best QB and a killer D-line will keep you in every game. The Chargers are better than usual but not so much better that you can rely on them to win the winnable games; I like them to hold on to 5th place overall. I like the Broncos to sneak ahead of the Steelers, they've got a for-real defense and they're getting it done with their rookie QB. The Raiders are awful.

End of Season:

1 Bills

2 Chiefs

3 Ravens

4 Texans

5 Chargers

6 Broncos

7 Steelers

At the end of the day, I think the Bills are better than the Chiefs and since they hold the tiebreaker, I think they'll surpass the Chiefs. I think the second tier squads of the AFC West will finish stronger than the Steelers, who will likely fall behind the Ravens. The Texans have no competition in their division and though they are a bit of a flailing team, I don't see how they miss the playoffs. 

NFC

Now:

1 Lions

2 Eagles

3 Falcons

4 Seahawks

5 Vikings

6 Packers

7 Commanders

East: The Eagles are balling right now and have no competition in their division, be kinda shocked if they're not in the top 2 by season's end. The Commanders are a puzzle: they have overachieved while losing games they should win, which happens to exciting young teams but is scary for predicting their future; I think the Commanders are nice but I suspect they have peaked and will fall out of the playoff race over the next month. The Cowboys are somehow playing better now than they have all season long, but I think they're too far back to reach the playoffs (though they're still in it for now). The Giants have given up on the season, they're playing for the #1 pick.

North: The Lions are the best team in football, killing it on both sides, the best Lions squad I've ever seen and I think they'll ride on to #1 in the NFC. The Vikings are a solid squad, good defense and a good enough offense, I don't think they catch the Lions but I'm not sure they can hold off the Packers. The Packers got hot right about this point last season, have had ups and downs this season but seem ready to go another late season run; I'd be more into them if they weren't looking up at the Lions and Vikings but I think they're a shoo-in for the post-season; I think the Packers catch the Vikings. The Bears don't suck but they aren't great (and, man, they're in a killer division!), but they're playing for next season.

South: The Falcons are like your uncle's weird ass old car: on sunny days you complain about what a piece of junk it is but on a cold snowy day you're thankful that it cranks up and goes; the Falcons have the ability to shock people in the post-season but getting there is gonna be a tough ride but I think they can snag a wild card spot from the sinking Commanders. I think the Bucs are gonna win the South, I like the way the play and I think their schedule turns soft at just the right time. The Saints are awful. The Panthers are awful--but strangely not quite as awful as I expected them to be.

West: Currently the Seahawks are atop the table but I like the Cards to come on and sneak past them (even though they just lost in Seattle). The Seahawks have a surprisingly effective passing game but I'm not in on anything else they do and I just don't think they're deep enough to get it done. The Cards are spunky and weird and I think they'll get surprising W's down the stretch. I thought it might be the Rams to make a late season push (*), but this team just isn't deep enough on either side and they have weird injuries. The Niners just didn't get off the mat this season and time is running out for them.

End of Season:

1 Lions

2 Eagles

3 Cards

4 Bucs

5 Packers

6 Vikings

7 Falcons

If this is the lineup, this will be a killer NFC playoff. What I'm suggesting is that the Packers, Bucs and Cards will get hot and the Lions and Eagles will stay hot and, again, they'll look like weak link of this lineup but the Falcons don't suck, you gotta give them a puncher's chance because they've got veterans and can score points. 

Okay, we'll see what the last 5 weeks bring.

(*) Full disclosure: I love watching Matt Stafford, probably my fave QB to watch right now. When he's in the groove it's like watching prime Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez, a thing o' beauty. 

2024-25 NFL Season (Week 4 & 5)

Games I saw (some of): 

Bucs 30-36 (OT) Falcons

The Falcons rely too much of Kirk Cousins--you've got a for-real running game, why are passing 50 times a game with a guy that makes Drew Bledsoe look like Jackie Joyner-Kersey? Neither of these teams show much interest in defense but they can both move the ball. Pre-season, I liked the Falcons to be a nice surprise kinda team and I still believe that, but they need to balance up that offense and tighten up that defense if they expect to take even this bizarro division. The Bucs are okay, they move the ball, they shouldn't be taken lightly and yet I still never expect them to win. 

Ravens 41-38 (OT) Bengals

I got a hot take: the Ravens defense is not particularly any good. This is not the hard-nosed Ravens D that we've seen for decades, this team is soft in the secondary and not that effective against the run. They can get gashed again and again, so good for them that their offense can put points on the board. As for the Bengals, well....likewise. The offense is coming around and their gonna be tough to stop most weeks but their defense doesn't stop anybody and if the offense turns it over or misses a FG, their D is in serious trouble. The Ravens are good enough to challenge in the AFC but I don't think the Bengals are gonna do much this season. 

The rest of the slate: 

Jets 17-23 Vikings. Yeah, that looks about right. The Jets really just haven't shown anything on either side of the ball yet, but their division is pretty awful, so they're not out of it yet.

Panthers 10-36 Bears. The Panthers are terrible. The Bears are at least moving in the right direction. 

Dolphins 15-10 Patriots. These are two worst teams in the NFL. I'd be shocked if they're not both picking top 4 in the 2025 draft. 

Colts 34-37 Jags. You ever notice that even when the Jags win, they still don't look right?

Bills 20-23 Texans. Feels like the Bills let this one slip away late. Good W for the Texans.

Raiders 18-34 Broncos. I kinda like the Broncos. I kinda the Raiders are terrible. 

Cards 24-23 Niners. The Niners are struggling and I don't understand why. The Cards are sneaky but not great. 

Packers 24-19 Rams. The Rams just aren't good enough in the O-line or D-line to matter much this season, it seems. The Packers should be better, but a nice W on the road. 

Giants 29-20 Seahawks. Why is the Seahawks home field advantage never much of an advantage for them? How did the Giants get better after getting rid of any/all good players? It feels like they're trying to tank and the players just keep accidentally winning. 

Cowboys 20-17 Steelers. The Cowboys are sloppy, should be better. The Steelers work hard and get lucky but I'm not sure how good they actually are. 

Saints 13-26 Chiefs. What happened that offensive explosion the Saints unleashed in the first 2 weeks? Nice steady game plan victory for the Chiefs.

Week 4

Games I saw (some of):

Cowboys 20-15 Giants

The Giants aren't a disaster, not quite good enough to beat good teams but not bad. The Cowboys have moments where that offense is in control and then moments where they look totally befuddled, I don't get this team at all.

Steelers 24-27 Colts

I'm still skeptical of the Steelers, the D is pretty good (but not that great) and the offense has moments but mostly sputters. But when QB Joe Flacco puts the cape on, that's good enough to brush the Steelers aside. So....why doesn't Flacco just play all the time for the Colts? Why do they leave the QB that can get wins on the bench for emergencies only?

Bengals 34-24 Panthers

Okay, so Cincy can beat the Panthers. Not overwhelming but they were the better team. That's good to know because I think the Panthers are probably the worst team in the league. 

Chiefs 17-10 Chargers

Another week, another just enough QB Mahomes performance. The Chargers are the Chargers, man: good when they feel like it, brutally awful the rest of the time. I'm still skeptical of the Chiefs, but they are the same team that won 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls, so.....

Bills 10-35 Ravens

The Bills were down 21-10 in the 3rd quarter, they were driving nicely, when QB Allen got outside the pocket, couldn't get the pass off, fumbled and lost the ball. The Ravens quickly converted the turnover into a TD and that was that. My point is: the Bills were in this game and if a coupla plays had gone different, they may have even won. But this is purely Josh Allen's team and they will go as far he can drag them. The Ravens are looking good, but I still feel like they're not a complete team. 

Seahawks 29-42 Lions

Jared Goff threw a perfect game--no incomplete passes all night. The Lions offense is looking good right now. The Seahawks are....I dunno what they are. 

The rest of the slate:

Saints 24-26 Falcons. Division game, home team wins, sounds right to me. 

Rams 18-24 Bears. The Rams are gonna lose like this week no matter who the play, right? The Bears offense is heating up. 

Vikings 31-29 Packers. Vikings built big lead, almost gave it away. If the Packers figure it out, they can still be pretty good. 

Broncos 10-9 Jets. Yipes! Are the Jets ever gonna get going? The Bronco is real. 

Eagles 16-33 Bucs. What is up with the Eagles? Do they hate their coach? The Bucs are a trick or treat team but their good weeks look pretty good. 

Jags 20-24 Texans. Division game, home team prevails, looks right to me. 

Commanders 42-14 Cards. The Commanders offensive renaissance looks to be for real. The Cards are up and down.

Pats 13-30 Niners. The Pats are working their way to a top 5 pick. The Niners still aren't there yet but a nice biscuit from the Pats is nice. 

Browns 16-20 Raiders. The Browns are stuck with QB Watson and until they get out from under his brutal contract, this team is going nowhere. The Raiders are not good, but they handled the Browns. 

Titans 31-12 Dolphins. The Titans aren't good but the Dolphins are aiming for a top 5 pick.

2024-25 NFL (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):

Bills 31-10 Dolphins

The story here is that QB Tua sustained another concussion and left the game (with the distressing cloud of retirement hanging over him) but before he left, honestly he was pretty terrible in this game. The first interception wasn't really his fault, but the second was and the third was Levis-level embarrassing and sealed the victory for the Bills. Where do the Dolphins go from here? Well, the talk is trading for Trey Lance (Cowboys) or even Bryce Young (Panthers), but neither of those seem like solutions to their problem, so the longer Tua is out the harder it'll be for the Dolphins to get anything going. As for the Bills, they moved the ball pretty well but frankly this game was over so quick, they didn't really do much. Last year the Bills went all in surrounding QB Allen with playmakers on both sides of the ball, but the offense was still mostly just Allen and the defense suffered injuries that ground them down to nothing by the time the playoffs came around. This year they're capped out of the star market, so its just Josh Allen hero ball and while that is terrifying on the one hand, it is probably theur best chance for success. So, while most think the Bills will take a step back (my pre-season picks had them out of the playoffs in the AFC), it is just as likely that the Bills reach their peak relying on Allen. Then again, Tua's travails show how dangerous it is to put all eggs in one basket. 

Saints 44-19 Cowboys

Holy golly! The Saints just scored and scored and scored and then mailed in most of the 2nd half. After two weeks this Saints offense looks amazing and while I want to be skeptical, I dunno, they look damn good! As for the Cowboys, well they were out of this game so quick, it's almost like they weren't even there. I suspect the Cowboys are still pretty good but they were too good against the Browns and too terrible against the Saints, so not enough yet to get a feel for them. And the Saints, well, so far so good (and they are in a sorry division, so this could keep going). 

Jets 24-17 Titans

Another week of watching the Titans....*sigh*  Well, they are a tougher, more physical team than I expected in the post-Vrabel era but with QB Levis, they have put a cap on how effective that offense can ever be. Levis is not a disaster but he's not good, every good move he makes will invariably be followed by a backward step. It took the Jets a while to get going--again, up against a tougher D than they expected--but once they did, they controlled the game to the close. I still think the Jets can be really good but they aren't there just yet, so the ceiling is hard to figure. The Titans are a tough out but won't win a lot of games. 

Bengals 25-26 Chiefs

Fun game, though I thought the Bengals had their chances to put this game away and they didn't rise to the task. The Chiefs (re: QB Mahomes) made the plays down the stretch to steal the victory but they still don't look like the mighty Chiefs (and I suspect they won't all year long). The Bengals are better than their 0-2 record, but how much better is hard to see. 

Bears 13-19 Texans

I liked QB Caleb, he's unorthodox (he's got weird foot work, which is either his downfall or his super power, I haven't decided yet) but he is a rookie and the team is still glitchy on offense. I like the Bears D but it, too, needs work. The Bears are frisky but not very good. The Texans are good but haven't shown that they can reach their peak. I like QB Stroud, he spreads the ball around nicely, and the D is nice but not great. Felt like they should've stomped the Bears, not sure why they didn't. 

The rest of the slate:

Bucs 20-16 Lions. The Bucs look spunky, the Lions don't look as good as it feels like they should be. 

Colts 10-16 Packers. Man, this was on the table for the Colts and they didn't take it, so are they just not any good? Good W for the Packers, with QB Love out indefinitely, they need to sneak every victory they can (so far so good). 

Niners 17-23 Vikings. Hmmmmm....the Vikings had the highlight of the week, a 97 yard bomb to WR Jefferson. But that aside, I'm surprised the Niners couldn't get their offense going. West teams coming east is always tough but the Niners looked so good to me against the Jets last week, I thought they would just roll through this.

Seahawks 23-20 (OT) Patriots. The Pats are feisty, but the Seahawks are, too. A win on the road is always good. The Pats are one of those teams that won't win games but will cover spreads. 

Giants 18-21 Commanders. NYG becomes the first team to ever score 3 TD's while giving up 0 TD's and still lose. Look at that score line....who scored the TD's? 

Chargers 26-3 Panthers. The Panthers suck, one of the worst teams of all time. The Chargers are still just chugging along. 

Browns 18-13 Jags. Well, QB Watson looked okay but what happened to the Jags? I think they might suck. 

Raiders 26-23 Ravens. Uh-oh. Ravens are 0-2 and if they can't beat the Raiders at home, then things are not looking good for them. As for the Raiders, well, their D plays hard and QB Minshew with some nice weapons isn't a bad offense. The Raiders might actually be kinda good. 

Rams 10-41 Cards. The Cards offense has looked pretty good so far (second only to the Saints?) and they clearly brought it here. The Rams have offensive line problems and their suffering through injuries on the offensive side. Good W for the Cards, tough L for the Rams. 

Steelers 13-6 Broncos. Looks like a slog of a match. The Steelers have a really good D and an offense that should be able to run the ball a little. Not sure what the Broncos have just yet, seems like not much so far. 

Falcons 22-21 Eagles. I saw none of this but I know the Falcons came back late to steal. The Eagles still look like the stagnation machine it was in the 2nd half of last season. The Falcons should/could have a nice offense, we'll see if they can keep QB Cousins upright. 

2024-25 NFL (Week 1)

Games I saw (some of):

Ravens 20-27 Chiefs

Nail biter, went down to the wire, just a toe over the line kept this one from going to OT (not unlike the KD Nets going down to the on-their-way to being champion Bucks a few years back, no?). The Chiefs look like a slightly degraded version of what they were last season: an okay defense and Patrick Mahomes making magic and not much else (which was actually a slightly degraded version of what they were the season before). Is that good enough to win the Super Bowl? Well, its worked for 3 of the last 4 years, so you can't count 'em out yet. As for the Ravens, the announcers were constantly pointing out their spotty O-line play and I think I agree: the D is good, Lamar Jackson is good, the skill players are good, but that O-line could be the Achilles' heel. If they figure that out, they should probably be on pace to win this match against the Chiefs if/when they meet again in the post-season. These are clearly two of the better teams in the AFC, wouldn't be shocked if the AFC Championship was a re-match (which the Ravens really should've won, if you think back to January).

Titans 17-24 Bears

Ugh, this was not the game I wanted to sit through. Coming in I thought the Titans would be one of the worst teams in the league this year and that the Bears should be way better than last year, though still rather middle of the pack overall. Well, for most of the game the Titans looked solid on both sides and the Bears looked like they couldn't move the ball at all.  But throw in a big kick return, a blocked punt and one of the lamest pick-6's you will ever see, and the Titans are going home with an L and QB Caleb is the first #1 pick QB to win his debut since David Carr a coupla decades ago. This is a tough game, man, the Bears did not look good but they got the W and that's all that matters. As for my initial takes, well, the Titans might not be awful--but, then again, they might be--and the Bears should get better as the season goes on, so perhaps they will be middle of the pack, which would be pretty good for a rookie QB. 

Pats 16-10 Bengals

The Bengals start slow, so no need to panic over this result. But, man, if the Bengals are gonna win any games this season, the Pats are the kind of team they need to beat. The Pats ran the ball well and their pass rush wasn't bad, so they might not be a disaster, but they don't have a great deal of depth and they do have a rookie head coach and rookie QB waiting in the wings. As for the Bengals, I dunno, they seems to be way short of weapons on offense and the defense was not impressive going up against QB Brissett, so....where are they going? I still believe in QB Burrow, but he needs to step up and win the winnable games (like this one). 

Rams 20-26 (OT) Lions

Fun game! For the 1st half, Lions felt like the superior team. But in the 2nd half, the Rams pulled it together, mixed up their attack, got the right stops on D and almost stole this one on the road from the Lions. Man, I gotta say: I loved QB Stafford in this game. The way he picked his spots and knew exactly what to expect from his O-line was masterful, it was like watching prime Peyton Manning. I always thought Stafford was pretty good but he is mellowing into a really top class veteran slinger that knows how to move the ball, protect his teammates and win games. If I was a Rams fan, I'd already be in love with this team and even though they didn't pull out the W, I'd keep an eye on the Rams because they might end up winning games they're not supposed to win. As for the Lions, in the OT they ran the ball all the way down the field and into the end zone--an option that was totally available to them all through the 2nd half! They relied too heavily on QB Goff, instead of sticking with a balanced attack to run some clock and preserve the lead. So, they got the W, they played well for the most part, but they came real close to fumbling this one away for no reason. 

The rest of the slate:

Packers 29-34 Eagles. Saw none of this game, the real takeaway is that QB Love is gonna be out for several weeks with a knee sprain and that is bad bad bad bad bad news for the Packers. We'll see what their backup QB situation is like (hello, Ryan Tannehill?) but this a bad way to open the season. As for the Eagles, good win, good way to open the season. 

Steelers 18-10 Falcons. QB Cousins did not have an impressive showing in his debut with the Falcons, are we chalking that up to a vicious Steelers pass rush or Cousins just done? No idea.

Cards 28-34 Bills. Took the Bills a while to get going, is it a bad sign that started slow or a good sign that they finished strong? Are the Cards actually a capable offense or did they just catch the Bills hibernating?

Texans 29-27 Colts. (Seems like this was the game to see this weekend) I think both of these teams are gonna be good this year. We'll see.

Jaguars 17-20 Dolphins. Feels like the Jags let this one get away, about to build on their big lead when they fumbled in the end zone and gave it away. Feels like the Dolphins got a gift and they made it hold up. The big news was Tyreke Hill getting arrested before the game (not a good look for the Miami PD). 

Panthers 10-47 Saints. So are the Saints gonna be good? (jk) Oh, the Panthers....

Vikings 28-6 Giants. Interested to see where the post-Cousins Vikings go from here, but they won't get to play NYG every week, so the uphill climb starts now. Oh, the Giants.....

Raiders 10-22 Chargers. Raiders look spunky (if untalented), the Chargers look like...well, the Chargers: tons of talent but are they any good?

Broncos 20-26 Seahawks. Close match, the Broncos actually impressed going to a hostile stadium with a rookie QB and holding their own. Not sure about the Seahawks, another year with QB Geno, a new head coach and a schizophrenic defense. 

Cowboys 33-17 Browns. The Browns had one nice drive, otherwise this was all Cowboys. The Cowboys look like the Cowboys, the Browns gotta be pretty worried about QB Watson, if he doesn't pull it together this will be a long, awful, expensive season. 

Commanders 20-37 Bucs. I like the Commanders to be kinda good this year but they did not get off to a good start as the Bucs made their defense look pretty Swiss cheese-y. I like the Falcons to pull it together but if not, the Bucs might romp through this division. 

2023-24 Super Bowl LVIII

Chiefs 25-22 (OT) Niners

Some complained that this was a boring game but I was riveted throughout. Defense does not mean boring. The Niners looked great on the opening drive, I really think they were on their way to a TD but McCaffrey fumbled and that put a chill on the Niners that hung over them for the rest of the game. The Chiefs went 3-and-out on their first possession, something that hadn't happened in the Chiefs' last 8 (I think) playoff games, and it felt like we had a defensive grudge match on our hands, when it initially felt like it might be a scorefest.  

The Chiefs next possession drove deep, felt like they were going to the end zone, til Pacheco fumbled and now we were back to defensive sludge game. That's all right by me, man.  

The Niners finally got to the house on a nifty trick play where WR Jauan Jennings threw back across the field to McCraffrey for the TD. They had already scored an FG--the longest FG in Super Bowl history (well, until the next FG, which was KC scoring just before halftime to make it 10-3). The fact that the Niners only scored 10 points though they had way more offense was concerning, they needed more, they needed a bigger lead.  

The Chiefs got the ball after halftime, but Mahomes promptly threw an interception (looked to me like he had a high guy and a low guy, changed his mind too late, put the ball in between them for the easy pick), an uncharacteristic move. But up to this point that Chiefs had one nice pass play and that was pretty much the whole offensive output. I thought the 1st half would be a lot of passing to Kelce and running with Pacheco, but they didn't settle into that formula until the 2nd half.  

The Niners weren't able to capitalize, both teams were stung by untimely penalties that made 1st downs hard to come by. So both teams punted a lot. Good defense, but just as often it was offensive lapses that impeded progress. 

The real game changer was the muffed punt: the ball went off a Niner blocker, Chiefs recovered inside the red zone--a gift considering how little the Chiefs had moved the ball up to that point. The Chiefs quickly turned it into a TD (yes! That's how you do it: always throw at the end zone immediately after a turnover!) and suddenly they were up 13-10, though the Niners had kinda dominated the offense.  

The Niners came right back and regained the lead but they missed the extra point, which would loom large as the game continued. 

Both teams made big plays and both teams made crushing mistakes. Most of the crushing mistake were untimely penalties that forestalled a drive, but each team had bad turnovers, too. Both teams played well but neither played flawless. 

The Chiefs were able to tie it up, the game went to OT and here is where we get the main talking head talking point: the Niners gave the game away by taking the ball first in OT! I write this facetiously because as this is the first game in NFL history to be settled under these OT rules, no one knew what was going to happen next. Furthermore statistical analysis (not sure what there is to analyze, since this had never happened before, but mathematicians love to think math equals reality, so...), suggests that the odds are roughly 50.1 to 49.9, which is statistically irrelevant so still not sure the basis of anyone's pronouncements here, except that the Niners lost and therefore they did a stupid thing. The rationale, I suppose, is that if you go 2nd you know what you have to do; I have no idea why people think this is an advantage and if the Niners had scored a TD, then forced the Chiefs to go 4-and-out, these same people would be saying the Niners made the right move so....they key here is to ignore jugheads on the internet. 

I thought Shanahan was giving his defense a rest and that first drive in OT was pretty great and it might've ended in a TD if Chris Jones (the low key MVP of this game) hadn't thrown QB Purdy out of his rhythm, because he had Jennings coming open for the TD. Jones had another pressure like this earlier in the 4th quarter that prevented Purdy from connecting on a TD then, as well, so Jones basically single-handedly killed two Niners touchdowns.

As I said, both teams played good but not great. The Niners were probably actually the better team but they didn't put up enough points. That muffed punt changed the game and the missed extra point and the two Chris Jones stops kept the game in play for the Chiefs. And, well, Patrick Mahomes is the best in the business right now. The fact that he has the weakest receiver corps in his time in KC is all the more impressive! Mahomes has gone from youthful slinger with weapons downfield to thoughtful game manager who knows his defense is good enough to win games. That maturation is amazing. I never believed in the Chiefs throughout the playoffs, I only believed in Mahomes and along with Chris Jones making timely defensive plays, that was enough to win the Super Bowl. Amazing.  

It took me a while to write this and just yesterday the Niners fired the Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks, which strikes me as an unnecessary move. The Niner defense was pretty good in this game, although I thought it was shaky against the Packers and Lions in previous weeks, but someone needs to take the blame, I suppose, and Wilks and Shanahan had had their differences throughout the season. 

So pre-pre-pre-season pick for next year's Super Bowl. I feel like the AFC should be a lot better next year. The Jets will have healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Browns will have healthy Deshaun Watson, the Chargers should be rejuvenated by Coach Harbaugh, the Bengals will likely be out of their funk, the Pats will have a new QB, the Steelers look to be trading for QB Justin Fields to go with their still-good defense, the Jags will be back, the Raiders will likely be more consistent, the Texans have their offensive identity in place, so the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills will not have an easy march to the post-season. I had the Bengals to make the Super Bowl last year but they never really got going and then QB Burrow got hurt; I'll take the Bengals to bounce back.

In the NFC, the Packers are the team that impressed me most in the playoffs, they have their QB and their RB and their O-line was really great down the stretch, they've got a lot to work with. The Lions should be good again, the Cowboys won't suck (until the playoffs), the Eagles should still be pretty good top to bottom, the Bucs had moments (we'll see if they can build something on them), the Rams were pretty good when they wanted to be, the Commanders will have a new QB, the Falcons just need a QB, and the Niners will surely be back, too. If the Lions can keep the momentum going, it'd be great to see them have some actual success. 

I'll say Bengals-Lions is your next Super Bowl (yeah, we'll see if I still think that in August). 

2023-24 NFL Super Bowl (Predictions)

Conference Finals

Chiefs 17-10 Ravens

Well, the Ravens picked a bad time to play their worst game of the year, but I kinda saw it coming (but tried to ignore it), because the Ravens have benefitted immensely throughout the season from other people's mistakes instead of their own brilliance. I like Lamar Jackson, I'd say he is the deserving MVP, he had a hell of a season and that Ravens defense is really good--one of the greatest of all time? Well, no, but one of the better defenses of this season, absolutely. But still the Ravens have accrued most of their W's from other teams self-destructing as much as the Ravens getting it done. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs also have a great QB and one of the league's better defenses, so was this a match of evenly matched teams? Well, no. I'd still say the Ravens were a more complete team with a more reliable offense and more reliable defense. All they had to do was avoid the dumb mistakes and wait for the other team to falter--and as great as Mahomes is, he doesn't have that much to work with these days--so expecting the Ravens to win even while thinking they are a bit overrated does not seem like a crazy concept to me (indeed, I still had the Ravens winning and covering even though I've been skeptical of them all season). 

But, all that said, the Ravens sucked so bad in the 2nd half--and the Chiefs didn't hardly do anything--that it is kinda shocking that the Ravens made it this far. The Ravens couldn't sustain drives in the 1st half and found unique and interesting ways to sabotage their good drives in the 2nd half. But even with all that, the Ravens were still the better team and should've won--and probably even covered! 

The Chiefs started with 3 good drives that netted them 17 points and then....survived. Are the Chiefs good? The Dolphins were completely falling apart by the time the post-season arrived, the Bills defense was decimated and the Ravens kept shooting themselves in the foot over and over. My take that this team is just Mahomes, a so-so running game and a pretty good defense and nothing else is still intact.  

Lions 31-34 Niners

The Lions built up an impressive 24-7 lead at halftime, but then completely foundered in the 2nd half and outside of a garbage time TD, basically couldn't do anything right. Too bad because the 1st half Lions were easily the best of the 4 teams that played today. But they couldn't convert on 4th down (Reynolds!), gave up a miracle reception, gave away a particularly egregious fumble, couldn't convert on 3rd down (Reynolds!) and then chose to go for it on 4th down when tying the game with FG was clearly the better move. Look, coach, I love that you "believe" in your guys and you like to gamble--that's great! But is okay to "believe" in your kicker, too, and to gamble on a game-tying FG, too. 

As for the Niners, they started the game trying to ride McCaffrey and that kinda went nowhere. But in the 2nd half they rode Deebo Samuel and that was much more effective. Then they rode the momentum that the Lions just couldn't regain and, well, that was enough to move on from the NFC. The Niners all season long were pretty clearly the best team in football on both sides of the ball. But the Packers and Lions both stifled the mighty Niner defense and the offense came alive when needed but could've asserted more control (if you really think they're that good).  

Super Bowl

Niners (-1.5) @ Chiefs (o/u (47.5)

Okay, well, right off: after the Conference Finals I can't help thinking that a Ravens-Lions SB would've been a much invigorating game, but this is what we have. 

The Niners defense has looked pretty bad for a while now, can they stop Mahomes? The Chiefs made good use of TE Kelce before halftime against the Ravens, but I don't think the Niners will let that happen. I kinda think Kelce (aka "Mr. Swift") will be strangely non-existent in this match since the Niners clearly have the LB strength to take him out. But that should offer chances for the Chiefs WRs at the second level. If the Niner pass rush can re-emerge, then Mahomes will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this. But if he has time, I expect the WRs to get 1st downs. Mahomes is a genius, entirely up to the Niner pass rush to get going, but so far it seems like Mahomes is brilliant early but wears down as the game goes on. 

On the other side, QB Brock Purdy has a habit of starting slow, then making the right plays down the stretch. That might work against the Chiefs, if their offense diminishes after halftime, but I think it'd be much better if Purdy got going early. Last time, they leaned on McCaffrey early but had success going to Samuel, let's see if they feature Samuel out of the gate. The Chiefs D is good but the Niner offense should be dynamic enough to move the ball. If Purdy plays mistake-free, they should be much better than the Chiefs. But the Niners have played their worst football of the season in the last few weeks, are they gonna turn it around in time?

Okay, I've picked against Mahomes three straught weeks, am I dumb enough to do it again? Yes, I am. Because I think the Chiefs opponents have mostly self-destructed lately and I'm going to put my faith in the sheer depth of Niner talent to get the stops needed and to pressure Mahomes throughout. If so, the Niners could win easily. And, frankly, they better because if they let the Chiefs hang around, Mahomes has the magic to steal away the big game.

I agonized over this match for two weeks now, but suddenly it seems to me that this has the chance to be a Niner boat race. If they play their best game on both sides, they should be far superior to the Chiefs. I'm betting they put together the right plan and get the luck they need because the Chiefs offense just isn't the dynamic force it has been in recent years and as good as the Chiefs D is, the Niners have plenty of firepower on their offense. If Purdy plays mistake-free and either Samuel or McCaffrey bust loose, then the Niners should dominate this game. They haven't shown it lately, but I'm betting the Niners shine out here and control this game from start to finish (yeah, I know....Mahomes....). I see the Chiefs winning a close game but the Niners winning a blowout. 

I'll say Niners 34-17 (Niners and over). 

2023-24 NFL (Conference Round Playoffs)

Division

Texans 10-34 Ravens

I've been saying all season that the Ravens had a knack for getting everyone's worst game; so when the Texans go for 5 false starts (each of of their O-linemen had one, how unifying!), a delay of game and a neutral zone infraction--do you see what I mean? The Ravens didn't do any of that. The Ravens did a hell of a job keeping QB Stroud from getting going but the pre-snap penalties did more to hold the Texans back than the Ravens did. 10-10 at halftime but the Texans just couldn't get stops in the 2nd half, they couldn't move the ball and it looked like they were playing in mud. The Ravens took a while to get going but this game was never in any doubt. The Texans had a few nice W's down the stretch, had a good season, looks like offensive ROY belongs to them, and they're in a shaky division, so the future is looking so much better now than it was a year ago. But the Ravens were better.

Packers 21-24 Niners

Wow, great game! I still stand by the notion that the reason the Packers beat the Cowboys had more to do with the Cowboys than the Packers, but I was remiss in not pointing out how great the Packers O-line played in that game. And that O-line was great again against the Niners. The Packers have their RB and their QB, bring back that O-line (give raises where needed) and pray that those receivers play as hard as they did the last 6 weeks, spend all your draft capital on defense and I'd say the Packers are ready to start next season today--clearly in the lead for the big bump team. As for the Niners, well, they did what they needed to do to win but when Deebo Samuel went out and never came back, it was a reminder that as good as this squad is on paper, in real life it is a bit fragile. Throw in that DE Bossa didn't do much (hell, I forgot DE Chase Young was even out there!) and even though LB Fred Warner seemed to be everywhere, the Packers still moved the ball convincingly. So how do we see this? I'm going with the Packers were the shocker team that played their best football in the playoffs, got one big upset and almost got another. The Niners did what they needed to do but I was expecting a thrashing and it didn't come and that's...awkward.

Bucs 23-31 Lions

Fun game, 1st half was back and forth action, the 2nd half was a chess match, riveting entertainment throughout. The Lions were the better side all year and I thought that carried through this game, although it was a struggle, Tampa Bay didn't make it easy, All season long the Bucs were the anything-can-happen team: maybe they light you up for 40 or maybe they turn the ball over, convert no 3rd downs and are long dead by halftime. This was maybe the best game they played all year and even though I was impressed with their secondary,  they just couldn't keep the Lions out of the end zone. Good year for the Bucs, I can see this roster being totally different next year but that division is still winnable, so wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs back in the playoffs next year. 

Chiefs 27-24 Bills

Another heartbreaker for the Bills (wide right, seriously?), but deep down we all know they were gonna lose in OT anyway. The Bills defense was decimated by injuries, the sheer amount of talent gone became too much to overcome and the Chiefs moved the ball without effort from beginning to end. The Bills moved the ball well, too, and they were in position to tie the game late, so a pretty even contest, though the Chiefs D was one of the best in the league this year while the Bills were at 3rd or 4th string all over the place. The Bills adopted a more conservative game plan (thank god!), running the ball effectively, piling up 1st downs and piling up time of possession; but if they had done from the 1st week of the season, perhaps they wouldn't have had so many defensive injuries. I still believe in the Bills offense (re: Josh Allen and whoever they give him to catch the ball) and I kinda still believe in the Bills defense, but they need to find a holistic way to move the ball without putting their own defense in tough positions. Good W for the Chiefs (I mean, Mahomes). 

Conference 

Chiefs @ Ravens (-4) (44.5)

Can Mahomes go into Baltimore and will a victory against a team that has kinda dominated (but has also been less impressive than most "dominant" teams)? Yeah, I think so. Mahomes is pretty great, man, already in the GOAT debate and he's still pretty young. Can the Chiefs D get stops and corral MVP Lamar Jackson? Yeah, I think so. The Chiefs D is by far the best that they've had in the Mahomes era, feels like the Chiefs have hit the kind of balance that great franchises dream of. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I've been suggesting that the Ravens are fraudulent and that the day would come when they would meet an opponent that got the best of them and I think I still believe that....but the Chiefs aren't that team. I would've given Buffalo a better shot at keeping pace with the Ravens than the Chiefs. The Dolphins and Bills defenses were both torn to shreds by injuries, so the playoff matches the Chiefs have played so far were 3rd rate at best, but that is not the case with the Ravens, whose defense was better anyway and isn't particularly racked by injuries. So Mahomes will face more intensity than anything he's seen so far. Can the Chiefs defense fustigate Lamar? Yeah, that pass rush is pretty good, they're a veteran crew and they've played all year. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I think the Ravens maintain a lead throughout, the Chiefs hang around and keep the game competitive. But by the 4th quarter, Lamar will have figured out what he needs to do and the Mahomes will be completely worn down to nothing, both teams will score, both teams will get stops, but the Ravens will be the better side. Tough to bet against Mahomes but I think the Ravens are too good for Mahomes to take single-handedly. So a relatively close game, but I like the Ravens to be in control throughout and to separate down the stretch. Ravens 31-24 (Ravens and the over).

Lions @ Niners (-7) (51.5)

The Niners at full strength are the best team in the league; that said, they're not at full strength very often. Last week, the Packer O-line held them at bay for the most part but the Niners talent came to the fore and pulled out the victory. The Lions are pretty good when they bring it but you just know they're going to make x amount of mistakes per game. Can the Niners take full advantage of the Lions sleepy moments? I think the Niners need to get a lead early, which will allow them to take more chances on both sides of the ball. If the Niners can make the Lions play catch-up from the jump, then I think they'll win comfortably. The Lions best bet is to be slow and steady, avoid giving up big plays on defense and chew the clock with a running game on offense; if they can do that, I think they can hang with the Niners and be in position to take advantage of Niner mistakes. This game comes down to mistakes: which team will capitalize and which will give up their advantage. Well, as I said, the Niners at their best are the best team and while I'm skeptical of their BEST best, I think they get close enough to it to hold off a furious Lion comeback in the 4th quarter. I'll take the Niners 31-27 (Lions and the over), but if there's gonna be a blowout on Sunday, it'll be this game.

2023-24 NFL (Division Round Playoffs)

Wild Card

Browns 14-45 Texans

Wow, this was a drubbing. The home/road splits on the Browns defense was alarming but I ignored it because I thought they were the better team and the hotter team. Well, they weren't. QB Stroud was a fucking beast (begging the questions: were this year's Cleveland Browns better than last year's Georgia Bulldogs?) and the Texans were absolutely up to the task. The Texans were up at halftime and looking good but in the 3rd quarter the Browns gave up back-to-back pick 6's followed by a sack on 4th down and that's where I stopped watching this game. Joe Flacco turned back into a pumpkin and we got a harsh reminder that the Browns really didn't have any running game to speak of. The Browns made the most of their regular season but I think the fact that the Bengals basically no-showed all year gave this team an inflated sense of superiority. Kudos to the Texans for getting a big W in a tough spot. 

Dolphins 7-26 Chiefs

(I saw none of this game...no one I know saw this game...nice work, Peacock)

Packers 48-32 Cowboys

Wow, this was a drubbing! First things first: the Packers had the right game plan and executed nicely, good for them. But make no mistake: the reason the Packers won was because the Cowboys SUCKED in this game on both sides of the ball. The Packers did what they needed to do, but this does not convince me that the Packers are some kind of juggernaut, they just caught the Cowboys on laundry day and that's why they're moving forward. I thought WR Lamb was kinda terrible early on, everyone will blame QB Dak but I thought it was his receivers that were doing him no favors. And on defense, I gotta say after watching the Cowboys play the Bills and Dolphins down the stretch, it seemed like teams were figuring out how to scheme LB Micah Parsons, who kinda disappeared in the last month, and the Packers kept the disappearing act going. The vaunted Cowboys secondary got no stops and the pass rush was completely absent. In the 4th quarter, the Cowboys got going and put some points on the board, but don't be fooled into thinking this was some kind of shootout. Nope. The Packers dominated from start to finish--well, until they stopped playing offense in the 4th quarter--and it was because the Cowboys just didn't do anything well. Good W for the Packers, QB Love looks like the right guy in the right spot and the Packers are playing really well right now (though I don't think matters much heading to San Fran next week). As for the Cowboys, this off-season is going to suck bad. 

Rams 23-24 Lions

Fun game! This was the one game of two evenly matched teams we got this weekend. I thought the Lions were the better team but only slightly, hence the final score (basically the Rams got stuck with 2 FG's instead of an extra TD) looks right to me. Both teams ran out of gas in the 2nd half but they both played well and similarly. Not much to say about this one but I will say that the Matt Stafford-Jared Goff trade worked perfectly for both teams: Stafford won the Super Bowl that Goff couldn't and Goff won the 1st round playoff game that Stafford couldn't, they each got over the hump that the other couldn't (also the Lions drafted really well out of the all the extra picks that trading Stafford brought them). Good W for the Lions, tough L for the Rams. 

Steelers 17-31 Bills

As a Bills fan it is infuriating how inefficient the Bills offense is; if this team would settle for singles and doubles instead of tying to hit grand slams every time, they'd waltz to the Super Bowl. If they took 3rd down seriously, their time of possession would rocket off the charts. They are so maddeningly casual during the easy plays that they end up having to do way more than they need to later in the game. That said, my pre-season prediction for the Bills was that they would go 12-5 and finished 2nd in the AFC; they went 11-6 and finished 2nd in the AFC....so why are we so obsessed with pointing out what a bad season they had? Did they? Granted, the ups and downs were occasionally shocking but they got where they wanted to go so kinda seems like they're on the right track. (Well, except for the defensive injuries which keep piling up) As for the Steelers, dude, they've sucked for years, how they keep making the playoffs is a mystery--there are doctoral dissertations waiting to be written on how much undeserved success the Steelers have had in the last 5 years or so. 

Eagles 9-32 Bucs

Man, the Eagles just suck. The Cowboys had a bad day but the Eagles have been trending in the wrong direction since Thanksgiving, I just kept thinking that they had enough pride/skill/whatever to get by the so-so Bucs but this team just didn't have it (did they all hate each other or something?). The Eagles were 10-1 not that long ago, but, man, they have completely sucked since then; I can dig that they weren't as good as their record, but the way these guys went down the tubes is not like anything I've seen in a long time. They were never in this game even though the Bucs were just getting FG's. The Bucs moved the ball well and the pass rush was impressive, then again the Eagles have given up on football, so hard to tell how good the Bucs actually were in this game. Good W for the Bucs, a weird off-season is coming to Philly.

Division

Texans @ Ravens (-9.5) (43.5)

The Texans to me are the who-knows team this year. Are they really this good? Can they win in Baltimore? Do they even deserve to be in the playoffs? Did they just run into a Cleveland team that wasn't nearly as good as we thought? Who knows? I like the Ravens but I've been a little skeptical most of the year because I think they have a knack for getting everyone's worst game--I'm not saying the Ravens suck, I'm just saying I'm not sure they are as good as they look. That said, QB Lamar Jackson has been killer this season and he can pile up offense all by himself; but when he struggles, the team goes nowhere, so can the Texans bottle up Lamar? Well, that's the game right there. And I have no idea the answer to that question. The Texans are young and plucky, they looked dominant against the Browns, if Stroud can keep moving the ball, then they can hang with the Ravens. But if Lamar gets it going, the Ravens can roll up the Texans quick. Here's the deal: either the Ravens will win comfortably or, if the Texans move the ball and get some turnovers, then they can in comfortably. I think it's a game for 3 quarters, then Lamar breaks out. Ravens 31-17 (Ravens and the over).

Packers @ Niners (-10) (50.5)

The Niners are just really good on both sides of the ball. If they play mistake-free, they are the best team in the league and should roll through a team like the Packers like wet butter. I like the Packers as much as the next guy, QB Love is fitting in nicely, I think next year they'll be ready to rise up. But for now, they are not nearly as good as the Niners and frankly they should've lost to the Cowboys last week. So I think this is where it ends for the Packers. Niners 37-16 (Niners and the over).

Bucs @ Lions (-6) (49.5)

Likewise with the Packers, the Bucs are a nice team that have had a nice season but they're not really supposed to be here and I have no reason to think they will survive on past this week. The two best teams in the NFC were the Niners and the Lions; we thought the next two best teams would be the Cowboys and Eagles, but they decided to not show up. So Final Eight for the Bucs--great season! But I just don't see the Bucs scoring nearly enough to hang with the Lions. Lions 27-14 (Lions and the under)

Chiefs @ Bills (-3) (45.5)

I've been convinced all year long that the Bills are not as bad as the haters say. Yes, the Bills had weird ups and downs this season (they still can't win at NYJ or beat the Bengals), all in all they finished where they were supposed to and as awful as they were, they got the home game against the Chiefs, don't they? So what did Kansas City do this season that was so right? The Chiefs have been getting compared to the Golden State Warriors for the last few years and the comparison is apt: after all this time, the Warriors are basically just a still-great Steph and not much else and the Chiefs are just QB Mahomes all by himself out there. Pointing out all the things the Bills aren't so good at is meaningless if the other team can't take advantage--and I don't think the Chiefs can take advantage. I like the Bills to be up at halftime and though it won't be a blowout, I think the Bills control the game throughout. I still expect the 4th quarter to be crazy fun time but I like the Bills to move on. Bills 23-18 (Bills and the under)

2023-24 NFL (Week 15)

Games I watched (some of):

Cowboys 10-31 Bills

Just didn't pay much attention to football this week (sick cat, family stuff, you know how it is), but I did get to see this one--the only one I was dying to watch. Fortunately I am a Bills fan, not a Cowboy fan (like my brother, heh heh heh), and this all looked pretty good to me. The Bills took the opening drive down the field for a TD (good start) and then the Cowboys stated off driving pretty good, it felt like this game might be nothing but offense on offense. But then the Cowboys stalled and, well, that's what this game turned out to be: Bills running the ball effectively and getting stops on 3rd down. The Cowboys are great at home, but kinda crappy on the road and though the weather was pretty mild for December in Buffalo, the Cowboys just couldn't sustain anything all game long (their TD was pure garbage time stuff). The Bills are in win-or-die mode and they played it to the hilt on this day. Though no one expected a dominating win over a really good team with QB Josh Allen throwing for....less than 100 yards?!?!? (Seriously?) But the Bills running game was devastating and clearly the Cowboys just couldn't figure out how to re-tool the defense. Good W for the Bills, but not that big of a deal for the Cowboys, who are probably locked into 5th place in the NFC (for their annual trip to Tampa, not bad). The Bills need to keep winning and pray for some help and if the cookie crumbles just right, don't be shocked if they blast their way through the AFC in the post-season (and that ain't just Bills Mafia talk!).

The rest of the slate:

Chargers 21-63 Raiders

Head Coach Staley, we hardly knew ye (jk, I knew waaaaay more about this guy than I wanted to). I don't root for people to get fired, but I understand it is part of this sports team thing, and very rarely have I ever longed for a coach to get the boot more than this guy. Watching him make dumb choices over and over that basically suck the life out of his own team drove me nuts over the years and thank god those poor players have finally been liberated from their too-smart-for-the-room tormenter. And the Raiders look as frisky as they have in a few years, not sure what good it does them at this point, but nice W. 

Vikings 24-27 (OT) Bengals

Both teams came in with their 2nd string QBs, wasn't sure what we'd get. But both of these backups are pretty good and this looks like it was a fun game. Bengals came back to pull it out late, good win. 

Steelers 13-30 Colts

I've been watching the Steelers for several years now wondering how they win games (and make the playoffs) when their offense is so terrible. After years of pulling out wins they don't deserve, it feels like maybe they're starting to lose that mojo; feels like they may have to finally go get a QB to build around (hmmm....Justin Fields, anyone?). As for the Colts, well, their offense can run it up and they're fun to watch and they are obviously way better than the Steelers. This score looks right to me. 

Broncos 17-42 Lions

The Lions have been scuffling lately, the Broncos have been balling lately, felt like this was gonna be a tight one. Nope. Lions came to play, Broncos couldn't hang. So have the Lions been overachieving or are they for-real and ready to get back to winning? And what is up with the Broncos? Frankly, I think they have been overachieving and going to Detroit was too much of an ask for this squad. I think the Lions are actually pretty good and I think the Broncos will not be making the post-season (but they can still tell themselves they've had a nice season). 

Bears 17-20 Browns

The Browns have a great defense and an okay offense that has been racked by turmoil at the QB spot. But the AFC is fraudulent (I think) and therefore the Browns are still very much in the mix. The Bears don't have to worry about playing for draft position because they've already got the Panthers' #1 pick and winning is probably good for raising QB Fields trade value. That said, trying to win and coming up short is the best possible outcome for the Bears. Good W for the Browns, good L for the Bears.

Bucs 34-20 Packers

The ol' Bay of Pigs match. I saw none of this but the Bucs play well on the road and occasionally that offense is spicy (the poor man's Colts, if you will), so while Green Bay should be untouchable at Lambeau in December, it isn't surprising that the Bucs came to play. These are two mid-level teams and they look like it. 

Texans 19-16 (OT) Titans

The Texans steal a division W on the road without their QB. Good W. As the for the Titans, well, rookie QB Levis is already better than I thought he ever could be (just a morsel of crow for now, I'll let the full meal marinate for another year or two), so at least they're moving in the right direction. 

Jets 0-30 Dolphins

I thought the Jets pass defense would be up for the test, but they weren't gonna win anyway, so not a shock that they mailed it in. 

Chiefs 27-17 Patriots

The Pats probably could've won this game (but they'll never get Caleb Williams that way), so they pulled back and rolled over in the end. Mahomes is as good as ever but this Chiefs squad is not up to the recent dominance, they're gonna struggle to get wins in the post-season.

Giants 6-24 Saints

The Saints know how to beat bad teams. The Giants are a bad team. 

Falcons 7-9 Panthers

The Falcons offense is loaded with weapons but they got no QB to fling the ball around, so while they're much better than the Panthers, they just couldn't get anything going in the rain in Charlotte. Good W for the Panthers (now the Bears are in jeopardy of only having the #2 pick....jk the Panthers are too awful for that).

Commanders 20-28 Rams

The Rams are playing pretty good right now, under the radar, too, as they might be able to sneak their way into the playoffs. The Commanders are not good (and yet not awful enough to really get better).

Niners 45-29 Cards

The Niners are rolling. Clearly, easily, obviously the best team in the league (when healthy). The Cards....just don't matter.

Ravens 23-7 Jags

The Jags are not right. I'm not sure if they're hurt or losing focus or just not very good but they are not a winning team right now and this is a bad time to spin the ol' wheels. The Ravens are really good when QB Lamar Jackson gives full effort but if he fogs up, the team could quickly go sideways.

Eagles 17-20 Seahawks

The Eagles are scuffling lately, too. I still think they have the best chance of beating the Niners, but they would do well to get off whatever bad mojo has gripped them because the season is running out. The Seahawks could still make the playoffs but I just can't see them being dangerous if/when it comes to pass.

2023-24 NFL (Week 14)

Games I saw (some of):

Bills 20-17 Chiefs

Good W for the Bills--they needed it! Tough L for the Chiefs--they needed it, too! The Bills kinda dominated the 1st half, mostly disappeared in the 2nd half but even in the face of KC's momentum, they managed to expertly (well, for the most part) kill the clock, get the FG and then ride out the Chief comeback (thanks to Kedarius Toney's big foot). But the Bills lost two more defenders (AJ Epenesa and Micah Hyde, though they did get a big play from Von Miller, who will be gone any day now), and QB Josh Allen's inability to get the ball downfield is still kinda worrying. As for the Chiefs, I dunno, man, Mahomes is as great as ever but none of the rest team is. 

Oh by the way, he was offside.

Titans 28-27 Dolphins

Fun game! I kinda thought these 2 Monday night games at the same time thing was a weird gambit that wasn't likely to pay off, but both of these games went down to the wire--and the undersogs were able to pull them both out! The Dolphins were up by 14 late, felt like they were gonna cover the spread and everything, then the Titans did everything right down the stretch, while the Dolphins chumped around thinking the game was already won. Good W for the Titans, but if the Dolphins had brought their full offense all the way through, they still should've won easily. Good win for the Titans.

Packers 22-24 Giants

The Packers just never really got going but they took the lead late but it wasn't enough. Good win for the Giants, I think we can officially call this Tommy Devito's team now. 

The rest of the slate:

Pats 21-18 Steelers

Missed all of this game and I got no regrets. The Steelers may have lost QB Pickett for the rest of the year, hate to sound like a dick but, I don't see how that makes a difference for this team.

Vikings 3-0 Raiders

FG at the buzzer, no less. Can't imagine what happened in this game and I kinda don't want to.

Seahawks 16-28 Niners

The Niners are rolling right now. The Seahawks are okay, could still make it to the post-season, but I just don't see them being dangerous.

Broncos 24-7 Chargers

The Chargers lost QB Herbert (for at least one more game, maybe more), their last chance at being meaningful. The Broncos have definitely turned it around, getting W's where they used to get L's, clearly a successful season even if they don't make the playoffs (they got a shot).

Bucs 29-25 Falcons

Division game shootout. The Bucs play well on the road, the Falcons have a Jekyll-Hyde offense, should've taken the road dog in this one.

Lions 13-28 Bears

The Lions are scuffling, so are they underachieving now or were they overachieving earlier? Are they gonna get their mojo back or did they peak too soon? And are the Bears gonna trade QB Fields or give him another shot next year? I kinda like Fields, can the Bears use their draft capital to build around him or to go get QB Caleb Williams? Are they good enough to be optimistic or bad enough to get back on the rebuild treadmill? Tough questions for Bears fans.

Colts 14-34 Bengals

The Colts just never got going. Meanwhile the left-for-dead Bengals have two straight W's with their backup QB.

Jags 27-31 Browns

Looks like a fun game. The Jags aren't as good as they look, the Browns aren't as bad. The AFC is a hopper full of random ping pong balls. 

Panthers 6-28 Saints

The Panthers are truly awful. The Saints know how to punish truly awful teams. 

Texans 6-30 Jets

Whoa! Who woke up the Jets? The Jets D apparently really put the zap on the Texan offense and scored a ton down the stretch. (This game was scoreless at halftime)

Rams 31-37 (OT) Ravens

When the Rams show up and play, they're not bad. I've been skeptical of the Ravens all season long, so should I be impressed that they hung with a bringing-it squad and got the OT win or should I wonder why they struggled with a mediocre team? I dunno, it's the NFL.

Eagles 13-33 Cowboys

Seems like the Cowboys jumped on them early and kept kicking. The Eagles have gotten stomped two weeks in a row (after a kinda lucky comeback against Buffalo), so are they coming back to earth or are they getting their bad mojo out of the way before playoff time? We'll see. The Cowboys win big/lose big, this week was a win big week--good for them.