Luke Walton has agreed to become the Lakers head coach, putting him in the running for the 2016-17 Coach of the Year. This was definitely a great move for the Lakers and it could be a great move for Walton. Back in the day Dr Buss always managed to make the deals happen to bring in the right people: Kareem, Magic, Pat Riley, Worthy, Shaq, Kobe, Phil Jackson, Odom, Pau. The Buss offspring don't seem to have the touch but the Laker brand still has plenty of cache even if the last few years have left the cupboard close to bare. This past season was sacrificed on the altar of Kobe (right now are the Lakers any better than the Sixers?), but the future begins now. With Walton (the Buss Children's first undeniably great move) the Lakers have something like an identity going forward and a young core (Russell, Randle, Clarkson, Nance, the upcoming #2 pick) to build around. There should be a lot of player movement this summer though it feels like the trade market, as opposed to the free agent market, will be stronger than usual and the Lakers don't have much to barter. The Lakers used to be an attractive free agent destination, can they regain that mantle?
Some random speculation on who they might be targeting: Harrison Barnes (Warriors), Demar Derozan (Raptors), Ryan Anderson (Pelicans), OJ Mayo (Bucks), Timofey Mozgov (Cavs), Meyers Leonard (Blazers), Al Jefferson (Hornets). I know, right? Still looks like another lean year for the Lakers, doesn't it? Oh well. If they can get a nice mix of mid-term and long-term deals worked out, they can get back in the playoff mix within 2 years, I'd say.
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Pointless Trade Idea
Clippers get Kevin Love ($21.5m next year); Heat get Blake Griffin ($20.1m next year); Cavs gets Chris Bosh ($23.7m next year)
Cavs have never seemed happy with Love and they've never really played him in his correct position, it just feels like this is not a perfect match. Bosh is Lebron's close friend and long time teammate, surely the Cavs could figure out how to play Bosh in a way that never matched Love's style. The Cavs would lose Love's rebounding but they'd gain Bosh's defense. Also, Bosh's long range shooting fits better with how Kyrie and Lebron play. Obviously the Cavs would need certain health assurances that Bosh is ready to go but if Lebron is satisfied, that should be good enough. (Yes, Bosh is older, not exactly a cornerstone of the post-Lebron years...but why would Lebron care about that?)
Clippers are at that point where they need to make changes for the sheer sake of making changes and Griffin's recent bad blood (and health concerns) make him more likely to be moved than Chris Paul or Deandre Jordan. Love would give the Clippers a formidable rebounding tandem with Jordan and his 3 point shooting could alleviate their long term inability to find a proper SF. I don't mean to say that Love is a better player but I think he'd fit just fine with the Clippers' needs on both ends of the court.
The Heat need to get younger and more athletic especially down low. Griffin's rebounding and D should fit with Whiteside (aka Deandre 2.0) just fine and his inside scoring would mesh well with Dragic and Wade. Also, he is the cornerstone of the future in a way that Bosh isn't. The only snag: Griffin has only 1 more year with a player option left on his deal, the Heat would want to re-sign him long term as soon as possible. This would give the Heat a long term core of Dragic, Richardson, Winslow, Griffin, Whiteside with room for DWade for as long as he feels like hanging around and an assortment of free agent veterans.
With the rising salary cap, this summer is like a refresh button for many teams in the league: everyone has more money to spend and the excess eliminates (I think) some of the restrictions that keep big deals from taking place. Some big names/contracts that I can see getting traded this summer: Griffin (Clippers), Love (Cavs), Serge Ibaka (Thunder), Jimmy Butler (Bulls), Zach Randolph (Grizzlies), Nerlens Noel (Sixers), Carmelo Anthony (Knicks), Demarcus Cousins (Kings), Eric Bledsoe (Suns), Greg Monroe (Bucks). There are also some player options that might not get exercised, too, just to add to the imminent player movement: Dwight Howard (Rockets), Deron Williams (Mavs), Demar Derozan (Raptors), Jeremy Lin (Hornets), Chandler Parsons (Mavs), Aron Afflalo (Knicks), Pau Gasol (Bulls), Seth Curry (Kings), Austin Rivers (Clippers). A lot of teams will look totally different by the start of next year's training camp.
Cavs have never seemed happy with Love and they've never really played him in his correct position, it just feels like this is not a perfect match. Bosh is Lebron's close friend and long time teammate, surely the Cavs could figure out how to play Bosh in a way that never matched Love's style. The Cavs would lose Love's rebounding but they'd gain Bosh's defense. Also, Bosh's long range shooting fits better with how Kyrie and Lebron play. Obviously the Cavs would need certain health assurances that Bosh is ready to go but if Lebron is satisfied, that should be good enough. (Yes, Bosh is older, not exactly a cornerstone of the post-Lebron years...but why would Lebron care about that?)
Clippers are at that point where they need to make changes for the sheer sake of making changes and Griffin's recent bad blood (and health concerns) make him more likely to be moved than Chris Paul or Deandre Jordan. Love would give the Clippers a formidable rebounding tandem with Jordan and his 3 point shooting could alleviate their long term inability to find a proper SF. I don't mean to say that Love is a better player but I think he'd fit just fine with the Clippers' needs on both ends of the court.
The Heat need to get younger and more athletic especially down low. Griffin's rebounding and D should fit with Whiteside (aka Deandre 2.0) just fine and his inside scoring would mesh well with Dragic and Wade. Also, he is the cornerstone of the future in a way that Bosh isn't. The only snag: Griffin has only 1 more year with a player option left on his deal, the Heat would want to re-sign him long term as soon as possible. This would give the Heat a long term core of Dragic, Richardson, Winslow, Griffin, Whiteside with room for DWade for as long as he feels like hanging around and an assortment of free agent veterans.
With the rising salary cap, this summer is like a refresh button for many teams in the league: everyone has more money to spend and the excess eliminates (I think) some of the restrictions that keep big deals from taking place. Some big names/contracts that I can see getting traded this summer: Griffin (Clippers), Love (Cavs), Serge Ibaka (Thunder), Jimmy Butler (Bulls), Zach Randolph (Grizzlies), Nerlens Noel (Sixers), Carmelo Anthony (Knicks), Demarcus Cousins (Kings), Eric Bledsoe (Suns), Greg Monroe (Bucks). There are also some player options that might not get exercised, too, just to add to the imminent player movement: Dwight Howard (Rockets), Deron Williams (Mavs), Demar Derozan (Raptors), Jeremy Lin (Hornets), Chandler Parsons (Mavs), Aron Afflalo (Knicks), Pau Gasol (Bulls), Seth Curry (Kings), Austin Rivers (Clippers). A lot of teams will look totally different by the start of next year's training camp.
Spurs-Thunder prediction
In the 1st round the Thunder beat the Mavs in 5 games and only the game they lost was really even close. The Thunder were easily the better team but that didn't stop them from picking fights, committing technical fouls and working just as hard on their bulletin board material as their defensive game plan. Some may like their fire, their playoff intensity but I do not agree. I think they gave their opponent a chance instead of just playing ball. Will this intensity beat the Spurs? Nope. Going out and playing smart basketball might but chest thumping and yelling at the fans won't get it done. OKC is playing the hell out of 7 guys: Durant (38MPG), Westbrook (35MPG), Ibaka (32MPG), Adams (27MPG), Waiters (26MPG), Roberson (23MPG), Kanter (20.5MPG). The Thunder never did figure out how to work Cameron Payne into the lineup and now he seems useless, Randy Foye has been getting some time but hard to imagine he helps out much going forward, Kyle Singler was overused during the season but now seems underused, Anthony Morrow and Nick Collison have totally fallen out of the rotation. Oh well. The Thunder will rely heavily on Durant and Westbrook no matter who else is on the team.
The Spurs rolled through the Grizzlies, playing four games that were more like hard practices than playoff games. Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best player in the game right now (and the only Spurs averaging more than 30MPG so far in these playoffs) and Lamarcus Aldridge fits in nicely in the new look Spurs, but while the rest of the cast is nice, these are the only two unimpeachably awesome Spurs right now. The Spurs are solid and consistent but not necessarily overwhelming right now and what the Popvich game plan is most susceptible to is the wildly unpredictable statistical freak performance, which OKC is quite capable of doling out. Tony Parker is only shooting 40% from the floor with a 19:8 (asst:to), these are not the most inspiring numbers from a floor leader in the playoffs. Duncan and Ginobli used to be rocks but now they're just hard and slow. David West gave up a lot of money to play with the Spurs but he's getting so little playing time now, its hard to imagine he makes a serious difference. Boris Diaw and Patty Mills are each going to play a major role, are they ready for it?
Though I wondered about the Spurs depth, the Thunder depth is not nearly as good. No one thinks Billy Donovan is as strong a coach as Greg Popovich. The Spurs hold home court advantage. Normally Durant and Westbrook are the two best players on the court but in this series Kawhi and Aldridge trump that edge. The Spurs are generally well rested after breezing through the 1st round, the Thunder are agitated and seems sucked into their own mind games rather than playing their best basketball.
So how do the Thunder win this series? As I said, the one chink in the Spur armor is a single player having a outlier performance creating an unforeseen imbalance. That player for the Thunder is Serge Ibaka. Kawhi will counter Durant's awesomeness, the interior D of Duncan, West and Diaw will counter Westbrook and Kanter. Serge Ibaka, on the other hand, kinda has a free reign in this series to knock down big shots and make defensive stops. The Spurs are the Spurs: they don't worry about 'adjustments', they just play their game without hesitation and it tends to win more often than not. But the Thunder will need to score points sneaking through the cracks and being flawless on the break. Ibaka is the one with outlier potential.
The Thunder will play hard and win games but I like the Spurs in 7. I think the home team takes each game and while I like OKC to win 3 games, I think the Spurs dominate their 4 homes games.
The Spurs rolled through the Grizzlies, playing four games that were more like hard practices than playoff games. Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best player in the game right now (and the only Spurs averaging more than 30MPG so far in these playoffs) and Lamarcus Aldridge fits in nicely in the new look Spurs, but while the rest of the cast is nice, these are the only two unimpeachably awesome Spurs right now. The Spurs are solid and consistent but not necessarily overwhelming right now and what the Popvich game plan is most susceptible to is the wildly unpredictable statistical freak performance, which OKC is quite capable of doling out. Tony Parker is only shooting 40% from the floor with a 19:8 (asst:to), these are not the most inspiring numbers from a floor leader in the playoffs. Duncan and Ginobli used to be rocks but now they're just hard and slow. David West gave up a lot of money to play with the Spurs but he's getting so little playing time now, its hard to imagine he makes a serious difference. Boris Diaw and Patty Mills are each going to play a major role, are they ready for it?
Though I wondered about the Spurs depth, the Thunder depth is not nearly as good. No one thinks Billy Donovan is as strong a coach as Greg Popovich. The Spurs hold home court advantage. Normally Durant and Westbrook are the two best players on the court but in this series Kawhi and Aldridge trump that edge. The Spurs are generally well rested after breezing through the 1st round, the Thunder are agitated and seems sucked into their own mind games rather than playing their best basketball.
So how do the Thunder win this series? As I said, the one chink in the Spur armor is a single player having a outlier performance creating an unforeseen imbalance. That player for the Thunder is Serge Ibaka. Kawhi will counter Durant's awesomeness, the interior D of Duncan, West and Diaw will counter Westbrook and Kanter. Serge Ibaka, on the other hand, kinda has a free reign in this series to knock down big shots and make defensive stops. The Spurs are the Spurs: they don't worry about 'adjustments', they just play their game without hesitation and it tends to win more often than not. But the Thunder will need to score points sneaking through the cracks and being flawless on the break. Ibaka is the one with outlier potential.
The Thunder will play hard and win games but I like the Spurs in 7. I think the home team takes each game and while I like OKC to win 3 games, I think the Spurs dominate their 4 homes games.
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Pointless Trade Idea
Hornets get Serge Ibaka (1yr/$12.3m); Thunder get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (4yrs/$13m per (4th year player option)).
The Thunder are Durant/Westbrook's team now and it feels like they're well past the days of relying on vets (Kendrick Perkins, Derek Fisher, etc) to take the heat off the court or be leaders in the locker room. Quite the opposite: it is time to openly acknowledge they are the undisputed co-alpha dogs and surround them with young sycophants will do as they are told. And since it feels like Kanter and Adams have basically usurped Ibaka's contribution, why not move him in his last year and bring back a young buck signed long term? MKG would give OKC wing defense without needing the ball on offense and without upsetting the vibe in the locker room. So far the knock on MKG is his lack of offensive prowess, but on OKC that is plus, not a minus (and I think he would score in a Kanter-like way around the basket).
For the Hornets, Ibaka fits everything that GM Michael Jordan loves in a player: tall guy that can handle the ball and shoot the 3 (well...he's not white, but he does satisfy all of Jordan's other fetishes). It would be foolish for the Hornets to give up a young signed talent unless they could be sure that Ibaka would sign a 2-4 year deal after this year. But if Ibaka was game for it, he'd be a good fit for the Hornets in a way that he isn't any longer on OKC.
The salaries don't perfectly match but in an expanded salary cap summer, I don't think that would present a problem for either team. I think this deal makes both teams better next year and beyond. I like this deal and it is extremely do-able.
The Thunder are Durant/Westbrook's team now and it feels like they're well past the days of relying on vets (Kendrick Perkins, Derek Fisher, etc) to take the heat off the court or be leaders in the locker room. Quite the opposite: it is time to openly acknowledge they are the undisputed co-alpha dogs and surround them with young sycophants will do as they are told. And since it feels like Kanter and Adams have basically usurped Ibaka's contribution, why not move him in his last year and bring back a young buck signed long term? MKG would give OKC wing defense without needing the ball on offense and without upsetting the vibe in the locker room. So far the knock on MKG is his lack of offensive prowess, but on OKC that is plus, not a minus (and I think he would score in a Kanter-like way around the basket).
For the Hornets, Ibaka fits everything that GM Michael Jordan loves in a player: tall guy that can handle the ball and shoot the 3 (well...he's not white, but he does satisfy all of Jordan's other fetishes). It would be foolish for the Hornets to give up a young signed talent unless they could be sure that Ibaka would sign a 2-4 year deal after this year. But if Ibaka was game for it, he'd be a good fit for the Hornets in a way that he isn't any longer on OKC.
The salaries don't perfectly match but in an expanded salary cap summer, I don't think that would present a problem for either team. I think this deal makes both teams better next year and beyond. I like this deal and it is extremely do-able.
Primary Update
With the NFL draft starting any minute now, it made me wonder why we don't examine our elected officials the same way we examine college football prospects? We tend to look at them through their ability to win elections (a reasonable metric, though not terribly insightful into the kind of person they are) and the media-driven partisan blather of our choosing (not a metric at all, indeed nothing but a distortion of reality).
For the next POTUS the first order of business will be (presumably) a Supreme Court nomination. We've been watching these candidates for almost a year now and what have we learned about their judicial philosophies? Virtually nothing. The candidates themselves are ciphers, we are free to impose our own beliefs onto them because the most skillful candidates actually do and say as little as possible. And we spend so little time as citizens (or as consumers of political rhetoric) considering the depths of the judicial system (the current judges, the current judicial trends, the current prosecutorial fads and fashions, etc), that even if the candidates did discuss this stuff it would be meaningless to us. That's unfortunate. The candidates have no interest in informing the public how how these decisions get made. Nor does the media, who just wants a show (and when it comes to politics, the dumber the show the better).
How will each of these candidates relate to Congress? How will each of these candidates relate to other leaders around the world? How will these candidates relate to previous administrations?
With football players the numbers aren't perfectly comparable: the ACC and the SEC and Div III are not the same thing. Good numbers don't necessarily mean a player will succeed at the next level, unimpressive numbers don't mean he'll fail. There's still a great deal of subjectivity involved but there are a helluva lot more useful metrics to analyze. Since the candidates just give us hard to pin down abstractions, we rely on projections of vote counts and exit polls to give us something concrete, some analyzable. But that's like looking at the attendance of the game rather than the score. Indeed, the whole election process is like watching the post-game press conference instead of the game itself.
I don't know where I'm going with any of this but I can't help thinking in this election season that USA should trade the #1 pick this year. There's no Greg Popovich out there wanting to lead us, no Steve Kerr that'll fight through back surgery to be our Coach of the Year. Maybe we'd be better off bolstering the State Department and the Pentagon and just going with a Byron Scott-type in the White House for the next few years. Who are the good free agents out there? Think Dwight Howard would make a good Supreme Court Justice?
For the next POTUS the first order of business will be (presumably) a Supreme Court nomination. We've been watching these candidates for almost a year now and what have we learned about their judicial philosophies? Virtually nothing. The candidates themselves are ciphers, we are free to impose our own beliefs onto them because the most skillful candidates actually do and say as little as possible. And we spend so little time as citizens (or as consumers of political rhetoric) considering the depths of the judicial system (the current judges, the current judicial trends, the current prosecutorial fads and fashions, etc), that even if the candidates did discuss this stuff it would be meaningless to us. That's unfortunate. The candidates have no interest in informing the public how how these decisions get made. Nor does the media, who just wants a show (and when it comes to politics, the dumber the show the better).
How will each of these candidates relate to Congress? How will each of these candidates relate to other leaders around the world? How will these candidates relate to previous administrations?
With football players the numbers aren't perfectly comparable: the ACC and the SEC and Div III are not the same thing. Good numbers don't necessarily mean a player will succeed at the next level, unimpressive numbers don't mean he'll fail. There's still a great deal of subjectivity involved but there are a helluva lot more useful metrics to analyze. Since the candidates just give us hard to pin down abstractions, we rely on projections of vote counts and exit polls to give us something concrete, some analyzable. But that's like looking at the attendance of the game rather than the score. Indeed, the whole election process is like watching the post-game press conference instead of the game itself.
I don't know where I'm going with any of this but I can't help thinking in this election season that USA should trade the #1 pick this year. There's no Greg Popovich out there wanting to lead us, no Steve Kerr that'll fight through back surgery to be our Coach of the Year. Maybe we'd be better off bolstering the State Department and the Pentagon and just going with a Byron Scott-type in the White House for the next few years. Who are the good free agents out there? Think Dwight Howard would make a good Supreme Court Justice?
NBA Playoffs (after 5 games)
East
Cavs 4-0 Pistons
Done. Cavs were better, Pistons played hard but they're a year away from making a big noise in the East. For the Cavs this was probably the perfect 1st round match: a hard working, not good enough team to focus the mind and organize the game plan, while providing plenty of time to watch the Hawks and Celtics beat up on each other.
Raptors 3-2 Pacers
Man, the Raptors stepped in some lucky shit in the 4th quarter of Game Five. Not sure what happened, really, the Pacers just lost themselves at the wrong time and let it slip away. The previous three quarters were classic playoff Raptors: not knocking down shots, getting frustrated on D. The message is still the same: whenever Kyle Lowry starts knocking down shots, the Raptors should easily get by the outmanned Pacers. Paul George is a great player and the Pacers aren't a bad team but the Raptors should be able to outscore them. I expect the Raptors to come out gambling in Game Six and finish the series.
Heat 2-3 Hornets
Heat....in the first two games they scored more than anyone thought possible. Since then, they've struggled to get any consistent scoring from anyone. They were plagued by foul trouble in the two games back in Charlotte but that isn't what happened in Game Five. They just didn't score. The really troubling part is that Kemba Walker didn't even play particularly well, it was a solid team effort with contributions from just about everybody. The Hornets jumped on the Heat early and even though the Heat came back and seemed to control the game, they could not separate from the Hornets, who hit some big 3's down the stretch. (Side note: Jeremy Lin has a $2.2m player option this summer, if I were Lin's agent, I'd think he could get a much better deal, whether from Charlotte and elsewhere. (Suddenly thinking he'd look good in Utah Jazz uni)) Now I'm thinking the Hornets will take it in Game Six.
Hawks 3-2 Celtics
The Hawks started slow in Game Five but the Celtics couldn't break away from them and by the end, it was Hawks in a landslide. The Celtics without Avery Bradley have that weird problem of too many players: the rotation is clogged, no one's terrible but no one's good enough. Isiah tweaked his ankle but I doubt it's serious. Hate to go against the Celtics at home but I think Millsap comes strong and leads the Hawks to a win in Game Six.
West
Warriors 4-1 Rockets
Done. The fact that Houston won a game is really one of the more surprising moments of the playoffs so far, don't ya think? Greatest team ever vs. the most disappointing team of the last few years, who did you think was gonna win?
Spurs 4-0 Grizzlies
Done. Grizz just never had a chance. (The fact that Mike Conley is making demands is one of those moments that should hearten the fans: this isn't some obnoxious athlete wanting more for himself, this is a team leader who wants to see more out of his franchise. He deserves whatever he wants, but I suspect he'll only get that from some other team)
Thunder 4-1 Mavs
Done. Personally, I think the Thunder embarassed themselves with how they played in this series: dude, you're better than the Mavs, just go out there and handle your business! Instead, they puffed their chests, picked fights, rang up technicals, and turned what should've been a walkover into a circus. If they think that'll help them beat the Spurs, I think they're mistaken. As for the Mavs, man, with Dirk, Zaza, D Lee, etc, they looked like a Romanian weightlifting team trying to run fast breaks out there, kinda laughable honestly.
Clippers 2-3 Blazers
After the Clippers lost Chris Paul (fluke broken hand) and Blake Griffin (severely bruised ego) for the rest of the playoffs, some commentators were fretting that this series would now go to seven games. Seven games? What? The Blazers are the 5th best team in the West, the Clippers without Paul and Griffin are certainly not the 4th best team any more. Who's gonna score the points for the Clippers? You think Pierce and Prigioni will just take up the slack? You crazy! Danny Manning's not walking through that door, folks. Eric Piatkowski's not walking through that door. I'm surprised Game Five was as close as it was (tied at the end of the 3rd quarter). Blazers in six now (hell, should win Game Six without any more effort than they gave in Game Five).
Cavs 4-0 Pistons
Done. Cavs were better, Pistons played hard but they're a year away from making a big noise in the East. For the Cavs this was probably the perfect 1st round match: a hard working, not good enough team to focus the mind and organize the game plan, while providing plenty of time to watch the Hawks and Celtics beat up on each other.
Raptors 3-2 Pacers
Man, the Raptors stepped in some lucky shit in the 4th quarter of Game Five. Not sure what happened, really, the Pacers just lost themselves at the wrong time and let it slip away. The previous three quarters were classic playoff Raptors: not knocking down shots, getting frustrated on D. The message is still the same: whenever Kyle Lowry starts knocking down shots, the Raptors should easily get by the outmanned Pacers. Paul George is a great player and the Pacers aren't a bad team but the Raptors should be able to outscore them. I expect the Raptors to come out gambling in Game Six and finish the series.
Heat 2-3 Hornets
Heat....in the first two games they scored more than anyone thought possible. Since then, they've struggled to get any consistent scoring from anyone. They were plagued by foul trouble in the two games back in Charlotte but that isn't what happened in Game Five. They just didn't score. The really troubling part is that Kemba Walker didn't even play particularly well, it was a solid team effort with contributions from just about everybody. The Hornets jumped on the Heat early and even though the Heat came back and seemed to control the game, they could not separate from the Hornets, who hit some big 3's down the stretch. (Side note: Jeremy Lin has a $2.2m player option this summer, if I were Lin's agent, I'd think he could get a much better deal, whether from Charlotte and elsewhere. (Suddenly thinking he'd look good in Utah Jazz uni)) Now I'm thinking the Hornets will take it in Game Six.
Hawks 3-2 Celtics
The Hawks started slow in Game Five but the Celtics couldn't break away from them and by the end, it was Hawks in a landslide. The Celtics without Avery Bradley have that weird problem of too many players: the rotation is clogged, no one's terrible but no one's good enough. Isiah tweaked his ankle but I doubt it's serious. Hate to go against the Celtics at home but I think Millsap comes strong and leads the Hawks to a win in Game Six.
West
Warriors 4-1 Rockets
Done. The fact that Houston won a game is really one of the more surprising moments of the playoffs so far, don't ya think? Greatest team ever vs. the most disappointing team of the last few years, who did you think was gonna win?
Spurs 4-0 Grizzlies
Done. Grizz just never had a chance. (The fact that Mike Conley is making demands is one of those moments that should hearten the fans: this isn't some obnoxious athlete wanting more for himself, this is a team leader who wants to see more out of his franchise. He deserves whatever he wants, but I suspect he'll only get that from some other team)
Thunder 4-1 Mavs
Done. Personally, I think the Thunder embarassed themselves with how they played in this series: dude, you're better than the Mavs, just go out there and handle your business! Instead, they puffed their chests, picked fights, rang up technicals, and turned what should've been a walkover into a circus. If they think that'll help them beat the Spurs, I think they're mistaken. As for the Mavs, man, with Dirk, Zaza, D Lee, etc, they looked like a Romanian weightlifting team trying to run fast breaks out there, kinda laughable honestly.
Clippers 2-3 Blazers
After the Clippers lost Chris Paul (fluke broken hand) and Blake Griffin (severely bruised ego) for the rest of the playoffs, some commentators were fretting that this series would now go to seven games. Seven games? What? The Blazers are the 5th best team in the West, the Clippers without Paul and Griffin are certainly not the 4th best team any more. Who's gonna score the points for the Clippers? You think Pierce and Prigioni will just take up the slack? You crazy! Danny Manning's not walking through that door, folks. Eric Piatkowski's not walking through that door. I'm surprised Game Five was as close as it was (tied at the end of the 3rd quarter). Blazers in six now (hell, should win Game Six without any more effort than they gave in Game Five).
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
NBA Transactions
Lakers fire Byron Scott. The only surprise is that it took so long. This summer is the Lakers' chance to bring in the free agents of the future (Demar Derozan will be on their radar) to go with a nice core of youngsters to build around. Keeping Scott for one more year would've been a sign that the Lakers still plan on sucking next year, firing him suggests they are ready to put together the team of the future. Reports are if they had made this move sooner they could've had Thibs. Now rumors are swirling around Jeff Van Gundy (ehh, I don't see it), UConn's Kevin Ollie (I'm not buying that one either), Golden State asst Luke Walton (if the money is huge, they might have a shot), San Antonio asst Ettore Messina (why not Becky Hammon?), and Derek Fisher (the poor man's Byron Scott). Now is the time for the Lakers to put something together, will the right coach bring people in or would they be better off fielding a team and then finding a coach? Either way, I can't help thinking the Lakers will be in this spot again next summer.
Steve Kerr named Coach of the Year. Okay, I get it, the Warriors have been absolutely brilliant for the last two years. Kerr is certainly not a bad choice but he wasn't my choice. Kerr missed a fair amount of the season and returned the same team that just won the championship. Though they overcame everyone's skepticism to have the finest single season of all time, it seems to me that there are other coaches that actually had a more impactful season.
Chris Paul out for (probably) 3-4 weeks, Blake Griffin still smarting from a quad injury. It seems to me the recent round of injuries begs for revisiting the MVP voting. Personally I had Curry 1st and Paul 4th but imagine the Clippers getting past the Blazers (I had Lillard 9th): how on earth could the Clippers beat the Warriors without Paul? Meanwhile, the Warriors could (should!) still vanquish the Clippers without Curry. Doesn't it suggest that Paul is waaaaaaay more valuable to his team than Steph is to his?
Steve Kerr named Coach of the Year. Okay, I get it, the Warriors have been absolutely brilliant for the last two years. Kerr is certainly not a bad choice but he wasn't my choice. Kerr missed a fair amount of the season and returned the same team that just won the championship. Though they overcame everyone's skepticism to have the finest single season of all time, it seems to me that there are other coaches that actually had a more impactful season.
Chris Paul out for (probably) 3-4 weeks, Blake Griffin still smarting from a quad injury. It seems to me the recent round of injuries begs for revisiting the MVP voting. Personally I had Curry 1st and Paul 4th but imagine the Clippers getting past the Blazers (I had Lillard 9th): how on earth could the Clippers beat the Warriors without Paul? Meanwhile, the Warriors could (should!) still vanquish the Clippers without Curry. Doesn't it suggest that Paul is waaaaaaay more valuable to his team than Steph is to his?
Sunday, April 24, 2016
NBA Playoffs (after three+ games)
East
Cavs 3-0 Pistons
(Still haven't watched the last two games thanks to the League Pass blackout)
Raptors 2-2 Pacers
Lowry still not shooting well but otherwise playing strong confident ball, good enough for a win in Game Three. But Game Four was all about Ian Mahinmi, the all of the sudden unstoppable force down low (I don't expect that will happen again). This series is still all about Lowry: when he starts scoring, the Raptors should run away from the Pacers but if he continues to struggle, the Raptors will find themselves in some trouble. The Pacers are disciplined and they don't do dumb shit but the Raptors are still the better team. Not unlike the Mavs-Thunder series: if the Raptors could just score at an ordinary pace, it would keep the games close enough to win. We'll see, the Raptors need to get it together or their playoff struggles will continue (and we might see a blowup this summer in Toronto, which I would not have predicted going into this series).
Heat 2-1 Hornets
The Hornets brought their A game on defense, committed the fewest turnovers in franchise history and kept the Heat from scoring in bunches. Kaminsky had a bust out game, torching Winslow in the paint and DWade never got his stroke going. If the Hornets can keep up the furious pace while making no mistakes then they can definitely hang, but I suspect Dragic is ready for a big game, which we might see in Game Four.
Hawks 2-1 Celtics
The difference between the Hawks and Celtics seems clear now: the Hawks are more capable of staging a comeback after a slow start. The Celtics play hard but without Bradley and Olynyk it is hard to imagine they'll have the depth to get this to seven games. That said, the Hawks are capable of blowing it and the Celtics are smart and don't quit. If the Hawks take Game Four, the series is over but if the Celtics played hard, get lucky and Isiah Thomas goes for another career high, then this series could get pushed forward.
West
Warriors 2-1 Rockets
The Warriors are without their leading scorer and main ball handler and the Rockets just played their best game in weeks....and it came down to the last 3 seconds. This means nothing to me, the Warriors are still gonna roll.
Spurs 4-0 Grizzlies
Game Three showed what this series was all about: if the Grizzlies play their very best game then they have a shot to lose by less than 10. Spurs cruised by them in Game Four.
Thunder 3-1 Mavs
If the Thunder are smart, this could be a great learning experience: the Mavs are strong enough to point out OKC's flaws but not strong enough to win in the long run. If the Thunder play this right, they'll be better prepared for the Spurs....if not, they'll do just enough to get by Dallas and then get smoked by the Spurs who are more disciplined and deeper in every way. Game Four, IMHO, was a disaster for the Thunder: why are Durant and Westbrook getting technical fouls? Why is the bench picking fights with the other team? Is that what they think 'intensity' is? Quit doing that! Coach Donovan must be losing his mind. The Thunder are going up against an opponent that cannot hang with them, handle your business, act like professionals and move on. The bravado is unnecessary and quite disconcerting, the Thunder are making this series much tougher than it needs to be, which only helps the Mavs!
Clippers 2-1 Blazers
The Blazers played better back at home but I still expected them to fumble it away. Kudos to them for outplaying the Clippers in the last few minutes of the game. As chaotic and weird as the Clipper supporting cast is, it seems stronger in every way than the Blazers. Lillard is still working way too hard to get his shots. The Clippers still look like the better squad and if they take Game Four (very possible), then they'll make quick work of this series.
Cavs 3-0 Pistons
(Still haven't watched the last two games thanks to the League Pass blackout)
Raptors 2-2 Pacers
Lowry still not shooting well but otherwise playing strong confident ball, good enough for a win in Game Three. But Game Four was all about Ian Mahinmi, the all of the sudden unstoppable force down low (I don't expect that will happen again). This series is still all about Lowry: when he starts scoring, the Raptors should run away from the Pacers but if he continues to struggle, the Raptors will find themselves in some trouble. The Pacers are disciplined and they don't do dumb shit but the Raptors are still the better team. Not unlike the Mavs-Thunder series: if the Raptors could just score at an ordinary pace, it would keep the games close enough to win. We'll see, the Raptors need to get it together or their playoff struggles will continue (and we might see a blowup this summer in Toronto, which I would not have predicted going into this series).
Heat 2-1 Hornets
The Hornets brought their A game on defense, committed the fewest turnovers in franchise history and kept the Heat from scoring in bunches. Kaminsky had a bust out game, torching Winslow in the paint and DWade never got his stroke going. If the Hornets can keep up the furious pace while making no mistakes then they can definitely hang, but I suspect Dragic is ready for a big game, which we might see in Game Four.
Hawks 2-1 Celtics
The difference between the Hawks and Celtics seems clear now: the Hawks are more capable of staging a comeback after a slow start. The Celtics play hard but without Bradley and Olynyk it is hard to imagine they'll have the depth to get this to seven games. That said, the Hawks are capable of blowing it and the Celtics are smart and don't quit. If the Hawks take Game Four, the series is over but if the Celtics played hard, get lucky and Isiah Thomas goes for another career high, then this series could get pushed forward.
West
Warriors 2-1 Rockets
The Warriors are without their leading scorer and main ball handler and the Rockets just played their best game in weeks....and it came down to the last 3 seconds. This means nothing to me, the Warriors are still gonna roll.
Spurs 4-0 Grizzlies
Game Three showed what this series was all about: if the Grizzlies play their very best game then they have a shot to lose by less than 10. Spurs cruised by them in Game Four.
Thunder 3-1 Mavs
If the Thunder are smart, this could be a great learning experience: the Mavs are strong enough to point out OKC's flaws but not strong enough to win in the long run. If the Thunder play this right, they'll be better prepared for the Spurs....if not, they'll do just enough to get by Dallas and then get smoked by the Spurs who are more disciplined and deeper in every way. Game Four, IMHO, was a disaster for the Thunder: why are Durant and Westbrook getting technical fouls? Why is the bench picking fights with the other team? Is that what they think 'intensity' is? Quit doing that! Coach Donovan must be losing his mind. The Thunder are going up against an opponent that cannot hang with them, handle your business, act like professionals and move on. The bravado is unnecessary and quite disconcerting, the Thunder are making this series much tougher than it needs to be, which only helps the Mavs!
Clippers 2-1 Blazers
The Blazers played better back at home but I still expected them to fumble it away. Kudos to them for outplaying the Clippers in the last few minutes of the game. As chaotic and weird as the Clipper supporting cast is, it seems stronger in every way than the Blazers. Lillard is still working way too hard to get his shots. The Clippers still look like the better squad and if they take Game Four (very possible), then they'll make quick work of this series.
Friday, April 22, 2016
Awkward Suggestion
Every year at the Academy Awards they show a reel of industry folks that have passed away since the last Awards show. The NBA should do this, as well, probably before the All-Star Game or Game One of the Finals. Yes, its a straight bummer but its worth it to give 3-4 minutes to those that are worth remembering. At the Oscars its one of the more anticipated features and I can imagine it would be for the NBA, as well. Flip Saunders, Moses Malone, Pearl Washington, etc. Recalling loved ones is sad but not depressing. I dunno, just a thought.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
NBA Playoffs (after two games)
One thing that jumped out at me in all of these games is that the refs backed off and let everyone go at it more than the opening games. In some of the games it really made a difference, in others not so much.
East
Cavs 2-0 Pistons. (I didn't get to watch any of this game because League Pass blacks out the Cavs games for me--even the replays of nationally televised games! WTF? Cleveland is a 6 hour drive from me and I'm almost positive that I don't get Cavs (or Indians) games here, so what's up with the blackout?)
Raptors 1-1 Pacers. Lowry is still struggling (in that mode where he's casually taking crappy shots as if that's the same thing as confidence) but DeRozan had a solid 2nd half and got the Raptors the much needed victory. Here's a game where the laissez-faire refereeing made a noticeable difference: Valuncianus was beastly, all over the place, fighting through anyone and everyone for every rebound, played well but I can't help thinking on another night he would've fouled out by halftime. The Pacers still had their chances to win this one but they didn't bring the intensity down the stretch. Game 3 will be interesting.
Heat 2-0 Hornets. Another one where the refs played a part: DWade was frustrated throughout but not getting his usual calls. The Hornets scored better than in Game One, kept it closer though the Heat scored just as well. Basically it was Big Al's resurgence (a monstrous 2nd quarter) that kept the Hornets in the game. Batum went out after turning BOTH ankles (ouch!), not sure what his status is going forward. I was really impressed with Josh Richardson: when I did my ROY post a few days ago, I forgot about Richardson but, man, he bedeviled Kemba Walker throughout this game, up in his face on D and consistently burying 3's in his face on the other end, a big time show for the rook. I was always impressed with Winslow: he doesn't play beyond himself, solid D, takes open shots, doesn't force anything, a really good contribution from the rookie. I thought the Heat were the better team (Dragic looks very comfortable now in his Heat uniform, Hornets haven't figured out to counter Whiteside) and I still think that; if Batum misses any games, this could be over quick.
Hawks 2-0 Celtics. A lot was made of the disastrous start of this game for the Celtics: the first 5 minutes or so was a slopfest (refs, again) where the Celtics found no luck and the Hawks made everything they threw at the basket jumping out to a 24-3 lead. What most people are ignoring is that from that point on the Celtics outscored the Hawks and while the Celtics played pretty awful, the Hawks weren't any good either. And a real headscratching observation: after the Hawks went on their opening run, Coach Bud yanked Korver and Teague and emptied his bench instead of keeping the pressure on. Why? Look, this was an all-around terrible game and actually closer than the score (or game reports) would indicate. The Celtics are gonna have a tough time replacing Avery Bradley but I believe it can be done as I was so wildly unimpressed by the Hawks. The Celtics have a long way to go but they've got a great coach and wild rotation of dedicated athletes, this could still go seven games.
West
Warriors 2-0 Rockets. Even without Steph, the Warriors should pummel the Rockets. We'll see if the Rockets can sneak one back home...I suspect not.
Spurs 2-0 Grizzlies. Didn't watch this one out of respect for the Grizzlies. I assume the Spurs are still the better team....?
Thunder 1-1 Mavs. The Mavs are a veteran crew, yes they are slow but they're crafty, they get decent shots, they don't turn the ball over and they don't make huge mistakes on D. The Thunder reminded everyone that their over reliance on Durant and Westbrook is their Achilles' Heal: Durant shot poorly and the Thunder struggled, they never put the game away and the wily Mavs stole one of the road. Not a surprise, really. The Thunder are better but they don't always play better. I guess the Thunder will steal one back in Dallas but they might just flounder their way to a Game 7.
Clippers 2-0 Blazers. Again, thought Lillard had to work so hard just to get ordinary shots, too much of a hole for the Blazer offense to dig out of. That said, the Clippers didn't shoot well and let the Blazers hang around when realistically this game should've been over much quicker. I assume the Blazers will win Game 3 back home, leaving Game 4 as the real decider of the series (I'll take the Clippers). Thought this series would be closer but now I'm thinking the Clippers win in 5.
East
Cavs 2-0 Pistons. (I didn't get to watch any of this game because League Pass blacks out the Cavs games for me--even the replays of nationally televised games! WTF? Cleveland is a 6 hour drive from me and I'm almost positive that I don't get Cavs (or Indians) games here, so what's up with the blackout?)
Raptors 1-1 Pacers. Lowry is still struggling (in that mode where he's casually taking crappy shots as if that's the same thing as confidence) but DeRozan had a solid 2nd half and got the Raptors the much needed victory. Here's a game where the laissez-faire refereeing made a noticeable difference: Valuncianus was beastly, all over the place, fighting through anyone and everyone for every rebound, played well but I can't help thinking on another night he would've fouled out by halftime. The Pacers still had their chances to win this one but they didn't bring the intensity down the stretch. Game 3 will be interesting.
Heat 2-0 Hornets. Another one where the refs played a part: DWade was frustrated throughout but not getting his usual calls. The Hornets scored better than in Game One, kept it closer though the Heat scored just as well. Basically it was Big Al's resurgence (a monstrous 2nd quarter) that kept the Hornets in the game. Batum went out after turning BOTH ankles (ouch!), not sure what his status is going forward. I was really impressed with Josh Richardson: when I did my ROY post a few days ago, I forgot about Richardson but, man, he bedeviled Kemba Walker throughout this game, up in his face on D and consistently burying 3's in his face on the other end, a big time show for the rook. I was always impressed with Winslow: he doesn't play beyond himself, solid D, takes open shots, doesn't force anything, a really good contribution from the rookie. I thought the Heat were the better team (Dragic looks very comfortable now in his Heat uniform, Hornets haven't figured out to counter Whiteside) and I still think that; if Batum misses any games, this could be over quick.
Hawks 2-0 Celtics. A lot was made of the disastrous start of this game for the Celtics: the first 5 minutes or so was a slopfest (refs, again) where the Celtics found no luck and the Hawks made everything they threw at the basket jumping out to a 24-3 lead. What most people are ignoring is that from that point on the Celtics outscored the Hawks and while the Celtics played pretty awful, the Hawks weren't any good either. And a real headscratching observation: after the Hawks went on their opening run, Coach Bud yanked Korver and Teague and emptied his bench instead of keeping the pressure on. Why? Look, this was an all-around terrible game and actually closer than the score (or game reports) would indicate. The Celtics are gonna have a tough time replacing Avery Bradley but I believe it can be done as I was so wildly unimpressed by the Hawks. The Celtics have a long way to go but they've got a great coach and wild rotation of dedicated athletes, this could still go seven games.
West
Warriors 2-0 Rockets. Even without Steph, the Warriors should pummel the Rockets. We'll see if the Rockets can sneak one back home...I suspect not.
Spurs 2-0 Grizzlies. Didn't watch this one out of respect for the Grizzlies. I assume the Spurs are still the better team....?
Thunder 1-1 Mavs. The Mavs are a veteran crew, yes they are slow but they're crafty, they get decent shots, they don't turn the ball over and they don't make huge mistakes on D. The Thunder reminded everyone that their over reliance on Durant and Westbrook is their Achilles' Heal: Durant shot poorly and the Thunder struggled, they never put the game away and the wily Mavs stole one of the road. Not a surprise, really. The Thunder are better but they don't always play better. I guess the Thunder will steal one back in Dallas but they might just flounder their way to a Game 7.
Clippers 2-0 Blazers. Again, thought Lillard had to work so hard just to get ordinary shots, too much of a hole for the Blazer offense to dig out of. That said, the Clippers didn't shoot well and let the Blazers hang around when realistically this game should've been over much quicker. I assume the Blazers will win Game 3 back home, leaving Game 4 as the real decider of the series (I'll take the Clippers). Thought this series would be closer but now I'm thinking the Clippers win in 5.
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
NBA Transactions
The Wolves announced Tom Thibodeau as the new GM/Coach. Personally I think they should've hired a badass GM first (not Sam Hinkie) and let him hire a coach, I just prefer keeping the positions separate. Thibodeau is a rugged taskmaster who will keep the kids in line and bring this crowd along. My first thought was: how does he wriggle Jimmy Butler out of Chicago? But looking over the numbers, he'd have to give away the entire bench and probably a few future draft picks, so I don't see that one happening (though it does appear that the Bulls are increasingly eager to move Butler). As it is now Thibs has a starting lineup of Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, KAT, Gorgui with Shabazz, Bjelica, KG, the #5-ish pick and Payne off the bench. A nice crew for Thibs to work with. Personally I think Thibs might be too much for these guys but he's definitely a good coach and these guys are ready for him. Good hire.
The Suns have officially named Earl Watson (3yrs/$?) to be their head coach. The emergence of Devin Booker will probably move Eric Bledsoe to the trade block (don't ya think?). But for now the starting five looks like Bledsoe, Booker, Tucker, Warren and Chandler with Knight, Len and Goodwin off the bench, in addition to 3 1st rd picks. There's upside but the Suns front office doesn't tend to leave well enough alone, so we'll see what he'll have to work with in the fall.
The Wizards have offered their head coach position to Scott Brooks. Is this a move to lure Kevin Durant? I dunno, man, I don't have the impression that that would bring Durant to leave OKC. The Wizards have moves to make this summer, hard to know what they'll be come the start of next season but he'll have Wall, Beal and Gortat to build around and something we definitely learned this year: when Beal's healthy the Wizards are pretty good, when he's not they're kinda terrible.
The Knicks are pretending to look for a coach but Phil Jax is gonna give a big money contract to Kurt Rambis, right? Man, who would've thought that Jackson was going to be worse for the Knicks than Isiah Thomas?
Monday, April 18, 2016
NBA Playoffs (after one game)
East
Cavs over the Pistons. I was impressed with the Pistons, their team speed and tenacious D suggested this might be a tougher series for the Cavs than I had anticipated. As for the Cavs, I thought they all played well, no glaring weaknesses and yet they didn't seem in command. Though Stan Van complained about the refs' acquiescence to Lebron's whims, I thought it was Andre Drummond that got away with a fair amount bruisin'. I expect the Cavs to win but I think the Pistons will sneak at least one game and will make the Cavs work harder than I would've thought.
Pacers over the Raptors. RED FLAG! Oh, man, the Raptors aren't gonna roll over in the playoffs again, are they? This Raptors team reminds me of Kentucky this season: when Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis played well, then the supporting cast was enough to beat anybody; but when either of them struggled, the supporting cast was not enough to make up the difference. Lowry and Derozan have to lead this team, if they're not at their best then Patterson, Valenciunas, Ross and company aren't enough to keep pace. I kinda like this Pacers team, they're undermanned so they play harder and with Paul George leading them and Monta Ellis to take the tough shots, they could sneak through. As for the Raptors, they go as far as Lowry and Derozan take them.
Heat over the Hornets. This is a tough one for me to judge: I have no eye for the Hornets, I don't get 'em, I don't understand how they score, how they defend, I don't get anything about what they do. In game one, I thought Batum played well but that was about it. If the Heat just show up and play hard I think they outscore the Hornets every time. We'll see.
Hawks over the Celtics. Oh man, this is gonna be good one! The Hawks put in on the Celtics early on but the Celtics came back and made a game of it. I expect six more games like this.
West
Warriors over Rockets. Obviously the big news is Steph left with an ankle injury. I certainly hope its not serious but even so, I fully expect the Warriors to whomp the shit out of the Rockets even without Curry.
Spurs over Grizzlies. Every time they show Dave Joerger on the sideline, I just feel sorry for the guy. His team needs scoring from Matt Barnes, defensive stops from Vince Carter, they started Jordan Farmer at PG--Jordan Farmer?!? Did he even play this year? No hyperbole: if the Grizzlies beat the Spurs it would be the biggest upset in the history of sports. I couldn't help thinking that Kawhi by himself could win 4 out of 7 over this Grizzlies team.
Thunder over the Mavs. This one, I think, was deceiving. It's easy to say that OKC is better and should pound the Mavs every night, but in the first half the Mavs missed a lot of open shots. If the Mavs could shoot at a normal average, this game would've been a lot closer in the 4th quarter. Keep it close in the 4th and the Mavs got a shot. I still expect the Mavs to win a coupla games but for OKC to finish 'em off.
Clippers over Blazers. I was really impressed with the Clipper defense: the Blazers had to work so hard just to get ordinary shots. If the Clippers can keep that up, they should make quick work of the Blazers. When Lillard scores, it opens up opportunities for everyone else but if the Clippers can just keep him working, the game shrinks for the rest of the Blazers supporting cast. The Blazers aren't dead and the Clippers might not actually be this good (although Blake looked ready to play), this is still a series.
Cavs over the Pistons. I was impressed with the Pistons, their team speed and tenacious D suggested this might be a tougher series for the Cavs than I had anticipated. As for the Cavs, I thought they all played well, no glaring weaknesses and yet they didn't seem in command. Though Stan Van complained about the refs' acquiescence to Lebron's whims, I thought it was Andre Drummond that got away with a fair amount bruisin'. I expect the Cavs to win but I think the Pistons will sneak at least one game and will make the Cavs work harder than I would've thought.
Pacers over the Raptors. RED FLAG! Oh, man, the Raptors aren't gonna roll over in the playoffs again, are they? This Raptors team reminds me of Kentucky this season: when Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis played well, then the supporting cast was enough to beat anybody; but when either of them struggled, the supporting cast was not enough to make up the difference. Lowry and Derozan have to lead this team, if they're not at their best then Patterson, Valenciunas, Ross and company aren't enough to keep pace. I kinda like this Pacers team, they're undermanned so they play harder and with Paul George leading them and Monta Ellis to take the tough shots, they could sneak through. As for the Raptors, they go as far as Lowry and Derozan take them.
Heat over the Hornets. This is a tough one for me to judge: I have no eye for the Hornets, I don't get 'em, I don't understand how they score, how they defend, I don't get anything about what they do. In game one, I thought Batum played well but that was about it. If the Heat just show up and play hard I think they outscore the Hornets every time. We'll see.
Hawks over the Celtics. Oh man, this is gonna be good one! The Hawks put in on the Celtics early on but the Celtics came back and made a game of it. I expect six more games like this.
West
Warriors over Rockets. Obviously the big news is Steph left with an ankle injury. I certainly hope its not serious but even so, I fully expect the Warriors to whomp the shit out of the Rockets even without Curry.
Spurs over Grizzlies. Every time they show Dave Joerger on the sideline, I just feel sorry for the guy. His team needs scoring from Matt Barnes, defensive stops from Vince Carter, they started Jordan Farmer at PG--Jordan Farmer?!? Did he even play this year? No hyperbole: if the Grizzlies beat the Spurs it would be the biggest upset in the history of sports. I couldn't help thinking that Kawhi by himself could win 4 out of 7 over this Grizzlies team.
Thunder over the Mavs. This one, I think, was deceiving. It's easy to say that OKC is better and should pound the Mavs every night, but in the first half the Mavs missed a lot of open shots. If the Mavs could shoot at a normal average, this game would've been a lot closer in the 4th quarter. Keep it close in the 4th and the Mavs got a shot. I still expect the Mavs to win a coupla games but for OKC to finish 'em off.
Clippers over Blazers. I was really impressed with the Clipper defense: the Blazers had to work so hard just to get ordinary shots. If the Clippers can keep that up, they should make quick work of the Blazers. When Lillard scores, it opens up opportunities for everyone else but if the Clippers can just keep him working, the game shrinks for the rest of the Blazers supporting cast. The Blazers aren't dead and the Clippers might not actually be this good (although Blake looked ready to play), this is still a series.
NBA Transactions
Randy Wittman (Wizards), George Karl (Kings), Sam Mitchell (Wolves) have officially been fired. Rockets haven't made a decision on whether to retain JB Bickerstaff. Kurt Rambis (Knicks) is likely out though still clinging to his 'interim' business cards. Word is still out on Byron Scott (Lakers), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Brett Brown (Sixers). Suns seem likely to retain Earl Watson as head coach (though that front office is always up to something).
Meanwhile the Nets have announced Hawks assistant Kenny Atkinson as a candidate for the 2016-17 NBA Coach of the Year. Hey, if he gets to 25 wins, he'll get some votes. With all the talk of how the Sixers have tanked the last coupla years, it'll be interesting to see the reaction to the Nets just being horrible without any kind of building taking place. Will this seem a more 'pure' method of fielding a basketball team?
Kawhi Leonard wins Defensive Player of the Year. I get it: watching Kawhi play basketball is like watching Nolan Ryan mow down batters or Peyton Manning effortlessly torching a hapless secondary. The dude is such a great player I can't blame anyone for voting for anyone else. That said, Draymond Green was the DPOY this year.
Meanwhile the Nets have announced Hawks assistant Kenny Atkinson as a candidate for the 2016-17 NBA Coach of the Year. Hey, if he gets to 25 wins, he'll get some votes. With all the talk of how the Sixers have tanked the last coupla years, it'll be interesting to see the reaction to the Nets just being horrible without any kind of building taking place. Will this seem a more 'pure' method of fielding a basketball team?
Kawhi Leonard wins Defensive Player of the Year. I get it: watching Kawhi play basketball is like watching Nolan Ryan mow down batters or Peyton Manning effortlessly torching a hapless secondary. The dude is such a great player I can't blame anyone for voting for anyone else. That said, Draymond Green was the DPOY this year.
Friday, April 15, 2016
NBA Playoff Predictions
West
Warriors-Rockets
James Harden is one of the most efficient scorers in the league right now and the Rocket supporting cast is really solid. That said, the Rockets have played like crap for most of the season, they ran off last summer's big acquisition (Ty Lawson), their head coach (Kevin McHale) and the in-fighting is likely to send Dwight Howard out next. The Rockets are easily the most disappointing team of the year (yeah, I thought the Bulls would be much better but no one else did) who waited to the last day of the season to secure a playoff spot. They don't deserve to be here and for their punishment they are about to be curb-stomped by the best team of all time. Warriors in 4.
Spurs-Grizzlies
Oh, man, the Grizzlies are soooo moving in the wrong direction right now. The team has been decimated by injuries and right now they're a patchwork of trade deadline pick-ups. Coach Joerger is likely on his way out though honestly he's probably done one of his best coaching jobs of his career. Meanwhile, the Spurs are humming and should sweep Memphis without much effort. Spurs in 4.
Thunder-Mavs
The Thunder should run the aging Mavs out of the gym. But the Thunder are not very good on defense while the Mavs are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league. The Mavs have veteran smarts and one of the best coaches in the league. I don't think the Mavs have enough to get by by the Thunder but I expect they'll weasel a coupla wins away from OKC, who still have trouble putting away games in the 4th quarter. Thunder in 6.
Clippers-Blazers
The Clippers should be wildly better than the Blazers but they really aren't. Chris Paul had an MVP-ish season but so did Damien Lillard, this series is a dual between those two. (Personal prejudice time) I don't think Paul can win a championship; he puts so much physical and mental effort into each win that series after series of good teams will grind him own too much for him to prevail unless he has superlative teammates (he does not) and a badass coach (uhhh....no). Thus, I would suggest that Paul-Lillard is a coin toss, even though CP3 ought to be the favorite. You'd like to think the Clippers have the edge of experience but they have a lot of experience of not getting it done. I figured I'd take the Clippers but the more I think about it, I think the Blazers will push them to the edge. Okay, I'll take the Clippers in 7 (although, come on, man, it won't seem nearly as cool as beating the Spurs in 7 last year).
East
Cavs-Pistons
Playoffs are here, time for Lebron to clamp down and blast through the 1st round. I like the Pistons, they've improved a lot in the Stan Van years and I think they'll be even better next year. But right now, they don't have enough to compete with the Cavs. If Reggie Jax goes hognutty and Harris or Morris can break loose, the Pistons could steal one. But I doubt it. Cavs in 4.
Raptors-Pacers
The Raptors have disappointed the last coupla years in the playoffs and going up against a strong defensive squad with resurgent Paul George and Coach Vogel might spell a third year of splat. But I don't think so. I think this Raptors team has a better team identity than years past led by Lowry and Derozan as the clear leaders of the team. I can see the Pacers stealing one but not two. Raptors in 5.
Heat-Hornets
Chris Bosh announced today that he wouldn't be playing in the post-season, which is sad and disappointing (hope he gets well and back on the court pronto). That said, Bosh was really only a wild card for the Heat. I think they can still beat the Hornets without him. Honestly, the Hornets are a mystery to me, I don't see how they score (besides Kemba), I don't see how they defend (besides Batum), I don't see how they get anything done, I have no idea how they got to where they are. The Heat haven't yet come together they would I thought they could...but they still could. I'm gonna go ahead and assume they will. But even with that I've got assume the Hornets will still win games (I dunno how but I guess they will). Heat in 7.
Hawks-Celtics
This looks to be the most competitive series of all. The Hawks are reliably good but not great, the Celtics seem undermanned but manage to overachieve. I'm convinced this will go 7 games and while I would generally go with the home team, I think the Celtics have enough moxy to throw off the consistency of the Hawks. I'll take the Celtics in 7.
Warriors-Rockets
James Harden is one of the most efficient scorers in the league right now and the Rocket supporting cast is really solid. That said, the Rockets have played like crap for most of the season, they ran off last summer's big acquisition (Ty Lawson), their head coach (Kevin McHale) and the in-fighting is likely to send Dwight Howard out next. The Rockets are easily the most disappointing team of the year (yeah, I thought the Bulls would be much better but no one else did) who waited to the last day of the season to secure a playoff spot. They don't deserve to be here and for their punishment they are about to be curb-stomped by the best team of all time. Warriors in 4.
Spurs-Grizzlies
Oh, man, the Grizzlies are soooo moving in the wrong direction right now. The team has been decimated by injuries and right now they're a patchwork of trade deadline pick-ups. Coach Joerger is likely on his way out though honestly he's probably done one of his best coaching jobs of his career. Meanwhile, the Spurs are humming and should sweep Memphis without much effort. Spurs in 4.
Thunder-Mavs
The Thunder should run the aging Mavs out of the gym. But the Thunder are not very good on defense while the Mavs are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league. The Mavs have veteran smarts and one of the best coaches in the league. I don't think the Mavs have enough to get by by the Thunder but I expect they'll weasel a coupla wins away from OKC, who still have trouble putting away games in the 4th quarter. Thunder in 6.
Clippers-Blazers
The Clippers should be wildly better than the Blazers but they really aren't. Chris Paul had an MVP-ish season but so did Damien Lillard, this series is a dual between those two. (Personal prejudice time) I don't think Paul can win a championship; he puts so much physical and mental effort into each win that series after series of good teams will grind him own too much for him to prevail unless he has superlative teammates (he does not) and a badass coach (uhhh....no). Thus, I would suggest that Paul-Lillard is a coin toss, even though CP3 ought to be the favorite. You'd like to think the Clippers have the edge of experience but they have a lot of experience of not getting it done. I figured I'd take the Clippers but the more I think about it, I think the Blazers will push them to the edge. Okay, I'll take the Clippers in 7 (although, come on, man, it won't seem nearly as cool as beating the Spurs in 7 last year).
East
Cavs-Pistons
Playoffs are here, time for Lebron to clamp down and blast through the 1st round. I like the Pistons, they've improved a lot in the Stan Van years and I think they'll be even better next year. But right now, they don't have enough to compete with the Cavs. If Reggie Jax goes hognutty and Harris or Morris can break loose, the Pistons could steal one. But I doubt it. Cavs in 4.
Raptors-Pacers
The Raptors have disappointed the last coupla years in the playoffs and going up against a strong defensive squad with resurgent Paul George and Coach Vogel might spell a third year of splat. But I don't think so. I think this Raptors team has a better team identity than years past led by Lowry and Derozan as the clear leaders of the team. I can see the Pacers stealing one but not two. Raptors in 5.
Heat-Hornets
Chris Bosh announced today that he wouldn't be playing in the post-season, which is sad and disappointing (hope he gets well and back on the court pronto). That said, Bosh was really only a wild card for the Heat. I think they can still beat the Hornets without him. Honestly, the Hornets are a mystery to me, I don't see how they score (besides Kemba), I don't see how they defend (besides Batum), I don't see how they get anything done, I have no idea how they got to where they are. The Heat haven't yet come together they would I thought they could...but they still could. I'm gonna go ahead and assume they will. But even with that I've got assume the Hornets will still win games (I dunno how but I guess they will). Heat in 7.
Hawks-Celtics
This looks to be the most competitive series of all. The Hawks are reliably good but not great, the Celtics seem undermanned but manage to overachieve. I'm convinced this will go 7 games and while I would generally go with the home team, I think the Celtics have enough moxy to throw off the consistency of the Hawks. I'll take the Celtics in 7.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
NBA Rookie of the Year
Karl-Anthony Towns. (*whew* That was easy) It was a strong year for rookies but KAT was easily--EASILY--the best of the bunch. Just to run it down: Towns led all rookies in G, MP, FG, FGA, FT, FTA, Rebounds (had more defensive rebounds than anyone else had total rebounds), Blocks, Points, top ten in Assists and Steals and the first rookie to average a double-double since Blake Griffin in 2010. Dude has to be unanimous ROY, I just can't see a case for anyone else.
Who's next? I'll lump the rest in tiers. Next tier: Winslow (Heat), Porzingis (Knicks), Booker (Suns), Jokic (Nuggets), Okafor (Sixers), Mudiay (Nuggets)
Going into last year's draft I thought Justice Winslow (Heat) was the one with the highest upside (man, it was crazy that he fell to #10!). I'm not ready to say I was wrong. He still has a lot of room to get better but he comfortably carved out a space in the rotation of an intriguing playoff team and that's pretty awesome for a rookie (a Pat Riley rookie, no less). He's at that point where he's not great at anything but he's good at most everything and I think he may have highest upside (of the non-Towns rookies, of course) going forward: as a DWade apprentice he could become a lethal, efficient scorer and a high level wing defender. Towns is the man but Winslow could still go down as the next best in this draft.
Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks) definitely showed flashes of being a load inside and out on both ends of the court. But he also hit the rookie wall, faded badly by the end of the year and is firmly mired on a team that stinks. But we clearly saw that he can score and defend just fine in this league and that his body, the one real worry about his game, seems plenty strong enough to survive season after season of high level abuse. Knicks fans finally have something to look forward to and that's maybe his most impressive accomplishment of all.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), too, showed more than his numbers would indicate: he was in there at the end of games--indeed, he was the level-headed cool customer that a coach could rely on out there, which is amazing to see in a 20 year old rookie. Again, the numbers are fine but his solid instincts and the poise under fire were all you wanna see in a rookie.
Jahlil Okafor (Sixers) lost more games in his first two weeks in the League than he had probably lost in all of high school and college put together, that's gotta be tough on a young competitor. His team stunk and offered very little of a positive environment. Over the course of the year he fell out of favor of most commentators but I thought he still showed out well enough to be in the discussion for 2nd place. Going forward this is his team (I think Nerlens gets traded this summer) and how Embiid, Saric and (Simmons?) get integrated into the team will be based on Okafor's needs. He's the lead dog and he needs to be that from now on. That's a lot for a rookie to have to deal with and while he could've handled it all better, I thought he did well enough.
Emmanual Mudiay (Nuggets) got lost in the shuffle, too. The Nuggets weren't so good this year but, frankly, they were way better than I thought they'd be. With a rookie PG, a new coach and no real stars to build on, I figured they were fresh meat in the West. But they outpaced the Kings (Cousins, Gay, Rondo, Hall of Fame coach, desperate front office) and did a lot better than simply guttering out for another lottery pick. Mudiay deserves a lot of the credit for that. He was shaky at times, still has a lot to learn and he's not much of a shooter, but he displayed a great deal of technique and a winning attitude. I think the Nuggets have two great pieces to build around with Mudiay and Jokic.
Next tier: D'angelo Russell (Lakers), Myles Turner (Pacers), Trey Lyles (Jazz), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Stanley Johnson (Pistons), Frank Kaminsky (Hornets), Larry Nance Jr (Lakers), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Nets)
I wasn't as impressed with Russell as I felt like I should've been, he'll be fine but I can't help thinking the Lakers could've done better with that pick. Turner settled in nicely with the Pacers, I reckon he'll be there for a while. Lyles wasn't asked to do much in Utah but I think he's another perfect piece in their puzzle going forward. Cauley-Stein started slow but by the end of the year I think people really started to understand his game: havoc-wreaking athleticism in a giant body. I wonder about the upside going forward of Johnson but he handled himself well in a playoff rotation. Kaminsky isn't quite the McRoberts replacement Jordan has been dreaming of but he might get close. Nance has a spunky, nimble game that I did not expect (especially since he came out of nowhere on draft night). I may be jumping the gun on Hollis-Jefferson (long stretch of injuries on an abysmal team) but I think as on-ball defender he's gonna be really good.
Wild cards: Bobby Portis (Bulls), Mario Hezonja (Magic), Cameron Payne (Thunder), Boban Marjanovic (Spurs), Nemanja Bjelica (Wolves), TJ McConnell (Sixers)
The Bulls did a poor job incorporating Portis so its hard to tell how good he's gonna be but I liked him coming out of college and I still do. Hezonja probably won't fight for time as much next year, so we'll get a better look at him then. Payne's rookie year was always gonna revolve around the health of Russell Westbrook, who was pretty healthy this year; just a hunch but I think he's gonna be good. Boban is older, wiser and solid at what he does, has Spur written all over him. Personally, I love Bjelica's game and found it maddening he didn't get more playing time in Minnesota, not sure about his future but I think he can be really good. Gotta give a shout to McConnell: he actually had a really solid year on a dysfunctional team and I think he can be a long time PG in this league.
There were others, too: Raul Neto (Jazz), Jerian Grant (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Mavs), Jonathon Simmons (Spurs), Rashad Vaughn (Bucks), Richaun Holmes (Sixers) all had their moments, as well.
Who's next? I'll lump the rest in tiers. Next tier: Winslow (Heat), Porzingis (Knicks), Booker (Suns), Jokic (Nuggets), Okafor (Sixers), Mudiay (Nuggets)
Going into last year's draft I thought Justice Winslow (Heat) was the one with the highest upside (man, it was crazy that he fell to #10!). I'm not ready to say I was wrong. He still has a lot of room to get better but he comfortably carved out a space in the rotation of an intriguing playoff team and that's pretty awesome for a rookie (a Pat Riley rookie, no less). He's at that point where he's not great at anything but he's good at most everything and I think he may have highest upside (of the non-Towns rookies, of course) going forward: as a DWade apprentice he could become a lethal, efficient scorer and a high level wing defender. Towns is the man but Winslow could still go down as the next best in this draft.
Devin Booker's (Suns) year looks better than his numbers: statistically he's good but the confidence he showed while dragging around a moribund Suns team on his back was really amazing. The Suns were a dumpster fire all year long: the front office has made many horrible moves over the last coupla years and it just got compounded this year. Coach Hornacek got run, Markieff was sent packing and the rotation never coalesced. After Knight and Bledsoe both got hurt, the team was turned over to Booker and he showed he was up to it. He's going to be a helluva scorer in the NBA. (Unfortunately, this surely only means more turmoil from the Suns front office: Bledsoe or Knight or both will get traded this summer, I guarantee)
Jahlil Okafor (Sixers) lost more games in his first two weeks in the League than he had probably lost in all of high school and college put together, that's gotta be tough on a young competitor. His team stunk and offered very little of a positive environment. Over the course of the year he fell out of favor of most commentators but I thought he still showed out well enough to be in the discussion for 2nd place. Going forward this is his team (I think Nerlens gets traded this summer) and how Embiid, Saric and (Simmons?) get integrated into the team will be based on Okafor's needs. He's the lead dog and he needs to be that from now on. That's a lot for a rookie to have to deal with and while he could've handled it all better, I thought he did well enough.
Next tier: D'angelo Russell (Lakers), Myles Turner (Pacers), Trey Lyles (Jazz), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Stanley Johnson (Pistons), Frank Kaminsky (Hornets), Larry Nance Jr (Lakers), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Nets)
I wasn't as impressed with Russell as I felt like I should've been, he'll be fine but I can't help thinking the Lakers could've done better with that pick. Turner settled in nicely with the Pacers, I reckon he'll be there for a while. Lyles wasn't asked to do much in Utah but I think he's another perfect piece in their puzzle going forward. Cauley-Stein started slow but by the end of the year I think people really started to understand his game: havoc-wreaking athleticism in a giant body. I wonder about the upside going forward of Johnson but he handled himself well in a playoff rotation. Kaminsky isn't quite the McRoberts replacement Jordan has been dreaming of but he might get close. Nance has a spunky, nimble game that I did not expect (especially since he came out of nowhere on draft night). I may be jumping the gun on Hollis-Jefferson (long stretch of injuries on an abysmal team) but I think as on-ball defender he's gonna be really good.
Wild cards: Bobby Portis (Bulls), Mario Hezonja (Magic), Cameron Payne (Thunder), Boban Marjanovic (Spurs), Nemanja Bjelica (Wolves), TJ McConnell (Sixers)
The Bulls did a poor job incorporating Portis so its hard to tell how good he's gonna be but I liked him coming out of college and I still do. Hezonja probably won't fight for time as much next year, so we'll get a better look at him then. Payne's rookie year was always gonna revolve around the health of Russell Westbrook, who was pretty healthy this year; just a hunch but I think he's gonna be good. Boban is older, wiser and solid at what he does, has Spur written all over him. Personally, I love Bjelica's game and found it maddening he didn't get more playing time in Minnesota, not sure about his future but I think he can be really good. Gotta give a shout to McConnell: he actually had a really solid year on a dysfunctional team and I think he can be a long time PG in this league.
There were others, too: Raul Neto (Jazz), Jerian Grant (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Mavs), Jonathon Simmons (Spurs), Rashad Vaughn (Bucks), Richaun Holmes (Sixers) all had their moments, as well.
Pointless Trade Idea
Wolves hire Tom Thibodeau as Coach; then trade him to Sixers for Coach Brett Brown and 2 1st round picks.
The Wolves are looking for a coach and I think they will have their pick of the litter with that sexy sexy roster they have. The Coach of choice right now is probably Thibodeau and I don't want to cast aspersions but I don't think he's the right fit for the Wolves. The Wolves have a real family atmosphere, a fun vibe that has one more year of low expectations where the young talent can incubate. Sam Mitchell has a good rapport with the youth but would probably fit better as a Player Development guy rather than as head coach and with one more year of Kevin Garnett at the end of the bench, the cult of steady progress in a fun vibe should continue. Does that sound like Thibodeau's method? No. He may be a good coach but his blood-from-stone mentality might damage those tender tulips.
A team that could use Thibs' brand of tough love is Philly. The Sixers have slowly built themselves around Nerlens (sloppy renter apparently), Jahlil Okafor (not popular at night clubs) and Joel Embiid (who seems to take a relaxed attitude towards rehab), three guys that could use a solid kick in the pants. They'll be adding in Dario Saric and 2 (or more) new 1st rounders this summer, that is a team that needs a brutal dictatorial iron hand. Brett Brown has experience with developing youth and seems like a smart tactician, but he doesn't appear to be a brutal dictator. Thibs, on the other hand, wouldn't tolerate back sliding or halfhearted effort.
Brett Brown seems like a fun loving basketball teacher, the kind of guy the Wolves could really use. Brown is familiar with a youth movement and molding that Wolves roster into a basketball force could be right up his alley. Garnett to keep the kids in line, Mitchell to watch over them from above, Brown to teach them how to ball sounds like a good combo to me. While a ruthless taskmaster fits the Sixers needs. There are a lot of moving parts in the plan I just described, which makes it virtually impossible to actually take place...but think about it. It works.
The Wolves are looking for a coach and I think they will have their pick of the litter with that sexy sexy roster they have. The Coach of choice right now is probably Thibodeau and I don't want to cast aspersions but I don't think he's the right fit for the Wolves. The Wolves have a real family atmosphere, a fun vibe that has one more year of low expectations where the young talent can incubate. Sam Mitchell has a good rapport with the youth but would probably fit better as a Player Development guy rather than as head coach and with one more year of Kevin Garnett at the end of the bench, the cult of steady progress in a fun vibe should continue. Does that sound like Thibodeau's method? No. He may be a good coach but his blood-from-stone mentality might damage those tender tulips.
A team that could use Thibs' brand of tough love is Philly. The Sixers have slowly built themselves around Nerlens (sloppy renter apparently), Jahlil Okafor (not popular at night clubs) and Joel Embiid (who seems to take a relaxed attitude towards rehab), three guys that could use a solid kick in the pants. They'll be adding in Dario Saric and 2 (or more) new 1st rounders this summer, that is a team that needs a brutal dictatorial iron hand. Brett Brown has experience with developing youth and seems like a smart tactician, but he doesn't appear to be a brutal dictator. Thibs, on the other hand, wouldn't tolerate back sliding or halfhearted effort.
Brett Brown seems like a fun loving basketball teacher, the kind of guy the Wolves could really use. Brown is familiar with a youth movement and molding that Wolves roster into a basketball force could be right up his alley. Garnett to keep the kids in line, Mitchell to watch over them from above, Brown to teach them how to ball sounds like a good combo to me. While a ruthless taskmaster fits the Sixers needs. There are a lot of moving parts in the plan I just described, which makes it virtually impossible to actually take place...but think about it. It works.
NBA Most Improved
The clear choice, I think, is CJ McCollum (Blazers), he exploded this year after two years of not getting much opportunity. Voting for anyone else requires some serious philosophical inquiry into the raison d'etre of this award....so here we go.
The scenario I mentioned above (guy making the most of newfound opportunity) seems to be the most popular iteration. Some will go with good player that got better (some will suggest Steph Curry wildly improved on his MVP season, for example). But I would argue for: guy who never did anything before who is now quite useful.
Some might mention Jae Crowder (Celtics), but that was truer of him last year. True, too, of Festus Ezeli (Warriors), Maurice Speights (Warriors), Marvin Williams (Hornets): they all really emerged last year, not this year.
So I'm gonna throw a weird, lonely little vote toward a dude that I always thought was just plain ol' terrible: Bismack Biyombo (Raptors). With the Hornets he was clueless out there, utterly useless on offense and not nearly the defender that his athletic frame would've suggested. Two years ago when the Hornets played the Heat in the playoffs, after Al Jefferson got hurt, they couldn't rely on Biyombo to do even the mostbasic things to help them in that series (though, admittedly, the Hornets weren't gonna beat the Heat under any circumstances). Even when it was emergency time, they still couldn't rely on Biyombo. He contributed very little in his time in Charlotte and was let go with the title of 'draft bust' attached to his name. But with the Raptors, while certainly not an all-star, he was an effective rotation guy, especially on defense. He was a part of a team that relied on great cohesion to finish 2nd in the East. He was a plug in the middle of the D and an effective rebounder on both ends.
Great player? No. Great season? No. Improved performance? Oh, absolutely! I can dig that this is not the rationale that most voters will use and I can't imagine Biyombo will get any votes but personally I was vastly more impressed with him this year than I ever was before.
The scenario I mentioned above (guy making the most of newfound opportunity) seems to be the most popular iteration. Some will go with good player that got better (some will suggest Steph Curry wildly improved on his MVP season, for example). But I would argue for: guy who never did anything before who is now quite useful.
Some might mention Jae Crowder (Celtics), but that was truer of him last year. True, too, of Festus Ezeli (Warriors), Maurice Speights (Warriors), Marvin Williams (Hornets): they all really emerged last year, not this year.
So I'm gonna throw a weird, lonely little vote toward a dude that I always thought was just plain ol' terrible: Bismack Biyombo (Raptors). With the Hornets he was clueless out there, utterly useless on offense and not nearly the defender that his athletic frame would've suggested. Two years ago when the Hornets played the Heat in the playoffs, after Al Jefferson got hurt, they couldn't rely on Biyombo to do even the mostbasic things to help them in that series (though, admittedly, the Hornets weren't gonna beat the Heat under any circumstances). Even when it was emergency time, they still couldn't rely on Biyombo. He contributed very little in his time in Charlotte and was let go with the title of 'draft bust' attached to his name. But with the Raptors, while certainly not an all-star, he was an effective rotation guy, especially on defense. He was a part of a team that relied on great cohesion to finish 2nd in the East. He was a plug in the middle of the D and an effective rebounder on both ends.
Great player? No. Great season? No. Improved performance? Oh, absolutely! I can dig that this is not the rationale that most voters will use and I can't imagine Biyombo will get any votes but personally I was vastly more impressed with him this year than I ever was before.
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
NBA MVP
Obviously everyone is gonna vote for Steph Curry: he scores like nobody's business, he's fun to watch, he's already the defending MVP and he seems like a cool guy. My only problem is: I'm not convinced he's the most valuable player of his own team! If you take Curry off that team, they'd still be really good. Curry is not what makes them good, he's the difference between the Warriors winning by 5 or winning by 16. But, anyway, he scores a ton and he is unstoppable so I guess I'll take him to win the MVP.
In 2nd place, though, I gotta go with Curry's teammate: Draymond Green. Green plays suffocating D in the paint and on the perimeter, he's a great passer, a helluva shooter, a big guy that you can trust with the ball. And, while Curry is the face of the Warriors, Draymond is the true heart and soul of the team, that fire inside that wills everyone forward. I think he's the most important player on the team...but, clearly I can't take him 1st, so I'll take him 2nd.
3rd: Lebron. People take him for granted but this guy controls everything on both ends of the court (and off the court) to a degree that's just not like anyone else. Lebron is still the man--maybe more than ever!
4th: Chris Paul. The Clippers would've been absolutely nowhere without CP3 this year and he did it all by himself. Blake was hurt for most of the season, Austin Rivers was hurt, Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith ran themselves out of town, Deandre Jordan is still a supremely one dimensional player and he gets so, so little help from the coach. Really, a marvel of a season for CP.
5th: Kawhi Leonard. He just calmly, cooly plays his game, casually excelling on both ends of the court. This was a topsy turvy year for the Spurs...and they just finished with a franchise high in wins and the best (tied) home record in the history of the league. Kawhi is the bedrock on which Popovich is building his new church.
6-10: Russell Westbrook/Kevin Durant (either way, they're both amazing badasses), Kyle Lowry (really stepped forward and balled out this season, good for him), Damien Lillard (Aldridge left town and Dame is still under appreciated...smh), James Harden (while I think he deserves a lot of blame for the Rockets mediocrity, I also have to acknowledge he is equally responsible for all the good things that happen to that team, too).
In 2nd place, though, I gotta go with Curry's teammate: Draymond Green. Green plays suffocating D in the paint and on the perimeter, he's a great passer, a helluva shooter, a big guy that you can trust with the ball. And, while Curry is the face of the Warriors, Draymond is the true heart and soul of the team, that fire inside that wills everyone forward. I think he's the most important player on the team...but, clearly I can't take him 1st, so I'll take him 2nd.
3rd: Lebron. People take him for granted but this guy controls everything on both ends of the court (and off the court) to a degree that's just not like anyone else. Lebron is still the man--maybe more than ever!
4th: Chris Paul. The Clippers would've been absolutely nowhere without CP3 this year and he did it all by himself. Blake was hurt for most of the season, Austin Rivers was hurt, Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith ran themselves out of town, Deandre Jordan is still a supremely one dimensional player and he gets so, so little help from the coach. Really, a marvel of a season for CP.
5th: Kawhi Leonard. He just calmly, cooly plays his game, casually excelling on both ends of the court. This was a topsy turvy year for the Spurs...and they just finished with a franchise high in wins and the best (tied) home record in the history of the league. Kawhi is the bedrock on which Popovich is building his new church.
6-10: Russell Westbrook/Kevin Durant (either way, they're both amazing badasses), Kyle Lowry (really stepped forward and balled out this season, good for him), Damien Lillard (Aldridge left town and Dame is still under appreciated...smh), James Harden (while I think he deserves a lot of blame for the Rockets mediocrity, I also have to acknowledge he is equally responsible for all the good things that happen to that team, too).
NBA Coach of the Year
Randy Wittman (Wizards) and George Karl (Kings) are rumored to be getting fired any minute now, which will likely put a crimp in their arguments for Coach of the Year. With the recent Sixers' front office changes, will Coach Brown be on his way out in Philly? (Personally, I hope not; he's endured so much hardship, it seems rude to run him out now that the upside is in sight) Not sure what the Lakers or Wolves are going to do with their coaches going forward but neither would seem to figure in this year's Coach of the Year Award.
Can a coach that failed to make the playoffs be considered for Coach of the Year? Well, as a general principle I suppose its possible; but this particular year, no.
The playoff coaches:
Lue (Blatt), Casey, Budenholzer, Clifford, Stevens, Spoelstra, Vogel, Van Gundry
Kerr (Walton), Popovich, Donovan, Rivers, Stotts, Carlyle, Joerger, Bickerstaff (McHale), Snyder
Obviously the elephant in the room is Steve Kerr, The Warriors will break the record (I mean, right?) for most wins in the regular season while defending last year's championship. Feels like a no-brainer choice, huh? Well, due to health problems Kerr missed the first two months of the season and the team hummed along without him just fine. This team won the Championship last season and made virtually no changes in the off-season. I haven't made up my mind yet but I'm not sure I'm going to think that Kerr's coaching maneuvers were so decisive. So where does he go? Either he goes 1st or just not at all, right? I dunno what to do with him honestly.
Popovich, on the other hand, oversaw an overhaul of the Spurs roster. Bringing in Lamarcus Aldridge pushes Tim Duncan, the longtime leader of the team, to the side and continuing to trust Kawhi Leonard with more of the offensive duties pushes Tony Parker, a multi-time champion PG, to the side. Also, considering the continued diminution of the duties of Manu Ginobli and the inexplicably poor shooting year from Danny Green, it seems to me that Popovich had a lot more on his plate than Kerr did and frankly had only a slightly lesser season. Yes, he's got a lot of talent to work with and brought in more during the summer, but the changing dynamic of the team can be earth shattering and yet this Spurs team just set their franchise record for wins and tied the league record for home wins. And while they just got spanked twice by the Warriors, I suspect the Spurs still have plenty left in the tank for the playoff run. I think Popovich is my choice but let's run through the rest of the candidates.
Billy Donovan was a rookie coach this season, stepping in after the long time reign of Scotty Brooks in OKC. The Thunder were led by the great Kevin Durant and the downright beastly Russell Westbrook (both of whom will appear in my MVP post) and got an under appreciated season out of Enes Kanter (my runner up for 6th Man of the Year). Should Donovan get COY? No. I can't honestly say his coaching contribution was any better than the guy that got run out of town last year, the Thunder D is still shaky at best and they're still not closing in the 4th. We'll see if he can bring some innovation to the playoff run and perhaps we'll all eat our words but I'd be surprised if Donovan finished in the top ten for COY.
Doc Rivers coached the Clippers to a fine 4th seed in the West despite long stretches of time without Blake Griffin and continued chaos from the bench. But honestly everything that went wrong was really Rivers' fault. I certainly hope he sends Chris Paul a lovely fruit basket because CP3 single handedly saved the Clippers this year. Of the 16 (or so) coaches listed above, I'd put Rivers near the bottom.
Last summer the Blazers blew up the core and started over behind the leadership of Damien Lillard. Nobody was too impressed with their off-season moves (except for, *ahem*, yours truly, who thought they made a lot of nice low budget maneuvers) and the idea that the Blazers have now cruised into 5th place in the West will surely garner Stotts a lot of COY votes. That's fine, I wouldn't disagree that he had a fine season with an entirely different crew than he'd previously worked with, but I would suggest that the doom and gloom predictions were a bit overwrought. I liked the moves they made last summer and while I think Stotts did a fine job, I think he had more to work with than critics acknowledged at the time. The Blazers started underrated, finished overrated, I suspect Stotts will get a more votes than he really ought to to get.
And then there's the Mavs...6th in the West which is probably where we all thought they'd be in the pre-season but somehow it seems like a shocking achievement now, doesn't it? Carlyle is one of those coaches that does what he does over and over and it generally works, he's got a great groove with the front office and with Dirk and he makes the most of a variety of rotation players that come and go. The Mavs had a nice season--not a bad season, not a great season--a nice season. Its easy to see that Carlyle is a good coach, a professional, a guy that should be doing what he's doing. Even though this team is right where everyone thought they'd be, I think its one of Carlyle's better performances as coach.
Dave Joerger has been on the hot seat all year long in Memphis and in the coming off-season, it feels the Grizzlies are a candidate for a complete makeover (whether they want to or not). The Grizzlies having been gritting and grinding for years now and while 7th in the West is not dissimilar to their recent finishes, this one somehow feels miraculous rather than a continuation of the trend. Marc Gasol has been out for most of the season, Mike Conley has been out for a while and the supporting cast has been wildly changed in the last few weeks. Seems like the Grizzlies were primed for a downturn....but there they are, back in the playoffs just like always. It seems to me Joerger has had one of the best years of his career but its hard to imagine the Grizzlies front office will feel the same way. Hard to imagine that COY voters will either.
At the beginning of the 2014-15 season I thought the Rockets would disappoint and Coach McHale would be on the hot seat; instead, the Rockets played well all year, Harden should've won MVP and they made it to the conference finals. At the beginning of the 2015-16 season I thought the Rockets would finish 1st in the West, Harden really would win the MVP and McHale would be garnering serious COY talk; instead, Harden came in fat and grumpy, McHale got run out of town pronto and the Rockets have struggled all year long waiting til the last day of the season (I mean, right?) to finally make the playoffs. McHale deserved better than he got from his players and though young Mr. Bickerstaff has been fine in his interim-ness, I can't help thinking there's a better coach out there for the this team. No votes for Houston coaches.
I know I said non-playoff coaches won't get any votes but I thought I'd just go ahead and point out that Utah is a really fun young team to watch and they've got a bright future. They squander games down the stretch (should've beat the Warriors last week) the way young teams do but they've shown a lot of improvement and personally I hope they make the playoffs. Coach Snyder has had a good year and he might even get a vote or two.
In the East, the Cavs fired off David Blatt, then had virtually the same winning percentage under Tyronn Lue. No votes for either of those guys.
Last year, I thought the Raptors would dominate the East and Coach Casey would get serious COY votes. They started well then melted away down the stretch then flamed out in the playoffs (for the second straight year). But this year, the Raptors kept their intensity thanks to great team concept and I think Casey deserves a lot of credit for that. Fortunate for him, too, because he may well be looking for a new job if the Raptors had flamed out again.
The Celtics have the best non-Popovich coach in the game of basketball. Brad Stevens had a fine year, the Celtics overacheived again but somehow I don't see him getting as many votes for COY as you think. The Celtics are a dangerous team, a scary team, but somehow you know they're not going too deep with this personnel. Oh well, Stevens is still the best as far as I'm concerned. (Gonna look good on the sidelines at Rupp Arena one o' these days)
Coach Spoelstra has always impressed me. He survived Hurricane Lebron and came out with a bunch of rings and looking strong. The Heat assembled a wild cast of characters this year and while I knew it would take time for them to come together, I trusted that Spoelstra was the perfect coach for the task. It took a little longer maybe than you'd like (especially since the Bulls were horrible and the Hawks fell off from last year) but the Heat do look dangerous going into the post-season. COY? Ehh, not sure I'd go that far, I think the best of the Heat is yet to come.
Last year, the Hawks (think back) dominated the shit out of the stretch between Xmas and the trade deadline catapulting them into the top spot in the East. But, think about it, they've otherwise just been a nice, slightly above average team except for that killer six week stretch they had. Throw in the phony baloney weirdo turmoil around Danny Ferry for over a year, which only resolved when Coach Budenholzer threw him under the bus and took his job...I dunno, man, I do not like the vibe around this team. They're a year older, they overachieved last year, the vibe is all wrong. I gotta admit: I'm not a Coach Bud fan.
Coming into this season I had no faith in the Hornets: I'm dubious on Kemba as a team carrier, I love MKG but the kid cannot score to save his life, Big Al looks past his prime, I love Batum but I wondered if he was over last year's nagging injuries, I thought Kamisky would be a nice player but he's not the McRoberts replacement that GM Jordan has been longing for, I don't dislike Jeremy Lin but I didn't see him as the 6th Man type the Hornets needed. Honestly....I think I still think all of those things! But hey, man, this team is going strong into the playoffs which is not something that I saw coming. I give all credit to Coach Clifford, big ups to that guy.
I love Coach Vogel, I think he has over-performed for years in Indiana and this was another season of that. COY? Well, not sure I'd go that far but I'm a fan and I think he had a great year.
Coach Stan Van has remade the Pistons over the last few years and will finally be getting some post-season love this year. I can't imagine they'll beat the Cavs but they'll make 'em work and that'll be a good show. The best is still ahead for the Pistons.
So who I got?
1 Popovich (Spurs)
2 Casey (Raptors)
3 Clifford (Hornets)
4 Carlyle (Mavs)
5 Kerr (Warriors) (I guess I gotta have him in my top 5--they were one of the best teams ever!)
Can a coach that failed to make the playoffs be considered for Coach of the Year? Well, as a general principle I suppose its possible; but this particular year, no.
The playoff coaches:
Lue (Blatt), Casey, Budenholzer, Clifford, Stevens, Spoelstra, Vogel, Van Gundry
Kerr (Walton), Popovich, Donovan, Rivers, Stotts, Carlyle, Joerger, Bickerstaff (McHale), Snyder
Obviously the elephant in the room is Steve Kerr, The Warriors will break the record (I mean, right?) for most wins in the regular season while defending last year's championship. Feels like a no-brainer choice, huh? Well, due to health problems Kerr missed the first two months of the season and the team hummed along without him just fine. This team won the Championship last season and made virtually no changes in the off-season. I haven't made up my mind yet but I'm not sure I'm going to think that Kerr's coaching maneuvers were so decisive. So where does he go? Either he goes 1st or just not at all, right? I dunno what to do with him honestly.
Popovich, on the other hand, oversaw an overhaul of the Spurs roster. Bringing in Lamarcus Aldridge pushes Tim Duncan, the longtime leader of the team, to the side and continuing to trust Kawhi Leonard with more of the offensive duties pushes Tony Parker, a multi-time champion PG, to the side. Also, considering the continued diminution of the duties of Manu Ginobli and the inexplicably poor shooting year from Danny Green, it seems to me that Popovich had a lot more on his plate than Kerr did and frankly had only a slightly lesser season. Yes, he's got a lot of talent to work with and brought in more during the summer, but the changing dynamic of the team can be earth shattering and yet this Spurs team just set their franchise record for wins and tied the league record for home wins. And while they just got spanked twice by the Warriors, I suspect the Spurs still have plenty left in the tank for the playoff run. I think Popovich is my choice but let's run through the rest of the candidates.
Billy Donovan was a rookie coach this season, stepping in after the long time reign of Scotty Brooks in OKC. The Thunder were led by the great Kevin Durant and the downright beastly Russell Westbrook (both of whom will appear in my MVP post) and got an under appreciated season out of Enes Kanter (my runner up for 6th Man of the Year). Should Donovan get COY? No. I can't honestly say his coaching contribution was any better than the guy that got run out of town last year, the Thunder D is still shaky at best and they're still not closing in the 4th. We'll see if he can bring some innovation to the playoff run and perhaps we'll all eat our words but I'd be surprised if Donovan finished in the top ten for COY.
Doc Rivers coached the Clippers to a fine 4th seed in the West despite long stretches of time without Blake Griffin and continued chaos from the bench. But honestly everything that went wrong was really Rivers' fault. I certainly hope he sends Chris Paul a lovely fruit basket because CP3 single handedly saved the Clippers this year. Of the 16 (or so) coaches listed above, I'd put Rivers near the bottom.
Last summer the Blazers blew up the core and started over behind the leadership of Damien Lillard. Nobody was too impressed with their off-season moves (except for, *ahem*, yours truly, who thought they made a lot of nice low budget maneuvers) and the idea that the Blazers have now cruised into 5th place in the West will surely garner Stotts a lot of COY votes. That's fine, I wouldn't disagree that he had a fine season with an entirely different crew than he'd previously worked with, but I would suggest that the doom and gloom predictions were a bit overwrought. I liked the moves they made last summer and while I think Stotts did a fine job, I think he had more to work with than critics acknowledged at the time. The Blazers started underrated, finished overrated, I suspect Stotts will get a more votes than he really ought to to get.
And then there's the Mavs...6th in the West which is probably where we all thought they'd be in the pre-season but somehow it seems like a shocking achievement now, doesn't it? Carlyle is one of those coaches that does what he does over and over and it generally works, he's got a great groove with the front office and with Dirk and he makes the most of a variety of rotation players that come and go. The Mavs had a nice season--not a bad season, not a great season--a nice season. Its easy to see that Carlyle is a good coach, a professional, a guy that should be doing what he's doing. Even though this team is right where everyone thought they'd be, I think its one of Carlyle's better performances as coach.
Dave Joerger has been on the hot seat all year long in Memphis and in the coming off-season, it feels the Grizzlies are a candidate for a complete makeover (whether they want to or not). The Grizzlies having been gritting and grinding for years now and while 7th in the West is not dissimilar to their recent finishes, this one somehow feels miraculous rather than a continuation of the trend. Marc Gasol has been out for most of the season, Mike Conley has been out for a while and the supporting cast has been wildly changed in the last few weeks. Seems like the Grizzlies were primed for a downturn....but there they are, back in the playoffs just like always. It seems to me Joerger has had one of the best years of his career but its hard to imagine the Grizzlies front office will feel the same way. Hard to imagine that COY voters will either.
At the beginning of the 2014-15 season I thought the Rockets would disappoint and Coach McHale would be on the hot seat; instead, the Rockets played well all year, Harden should've won MVP and they made it to the conference finals. At the beginning of the 2015-16 season I thought the Rockets would finish 1st in the West, Harden really would win the MVP and McHale would be garnering serious COY talk; instead, Harden came in fat and grumpy, McHale got run out of town pronto and the Rockets have struggled all year long waiting til the last day of the season (I mean, right?) to finally make the playoffs. McHale deserved better than he got from his players and though young Mr. Bickerstaff has been fine in his interim-ness, I can't help thinking there's a better coach out there for the this team. No votes for Houston coaches.
I know I said non-playoff coaches won't get any votes but I thought I'd just go ahead and point out that Utah is a really fun young team to watch and they've got a bright future. They squander games down the stretch (should've beat the Warriors last week) the way young teams do but they've shown a lot of improvement and personally I hope they make the playoffs. Coach Snyder has had a good year and he might even get a vote or two.
In the East, the Cavs fired off David Blatt, then had virtually the same winning percentage under Tyronn Lue. No votes for either of those guys.
Last year, I thought the Raptors would dominate the East and Coach Casey would get serious COY votes. They started well then melted away down the stretch then flamed out in the playoffs (for the second straight year). But this year, the Raptors kept their intensity thanks to great team concept and I think Casey deserves a lot of credit for that. Fortunate for him, too, because he may well be looking for a new job if the Raptors had flamed out again.
The Celtics have the best non-Popovich coach in the game of basketball. Brad Stevens had a fine year, the Celtics overacheived again but somehow I don't see him getting as many votes for COY as you think. The Celtics are a dangerous team, a scary team, but somehow you know they're not going too deep with this personnel. Oh well, Stevens is still the best as far as I'm concerned. (Gonna look good on the sidelines at Rupp Arena one o' these days)
Coach Spoelstra has always impressed me. He survived Hurricane Lebron and came out with a bunch of rings and looking strong. The Heat assembled a wild cast of characters this year and while I knew it would take time for them to come together, I trusted that Spoelstra was the perfect coach for the task. It took a little longer maybe than you'd like (especially since the Bulls were horrible and the Hawks fell off from last year) but the Heat do look dangerous going into the post-season. COY? Ehh, not sure I'd go that far, I think the best of the Heat is yet to come.
Last year, the Hawks (think back) dominated the shit out of the stretch between Xmas and the trade deadline catapulting them into the top spot in the East. But, think about it, they've otherwise just been a nice, slightly above average team except for that killer six week stretch they had. Throw in the phony baloney weirdo turmoil around Danny Ferry for over a year, which only resolved when Coach Budenholzer threw him under the bus and took his job...I dunno, man, I do not like the vibe around this team. They're a year older, they overachieved last year, the vibe is all wrong. I gotta admit: I'm not a Coach Bud fan.
Coming into this season I had no faith in the Hornets: I'm dubious on Kemba as a team carrier, I love MKG but the kid cannot score to save his life, Big Al looks past his prime, I love Batum but I wondered if he was over last year's nagging injuries, I thought Kamisky would be a nice player but he's not the McRoberts replacement that GM Jordan has been longing for, I don't dislike Jeremy Lin but I didn't see him as the 6th Man type the Hornets needed. Honestly....I think I still think all of those things! But hey, man, this team is going strong into the playoffs which is not something that I saw coming. I give all credit to Coach Clifford, big ups to that guy.
I love Coach Vogel, I think he has over-performed for years in Indiana and this was another season of that. COY? Well, not sure I'd go that far but I'm a fan and I think he had a great year.
Coach Stan Van has remade the Pistons over the last few years and will finally be getting some post-season love this year. I can't imagine they'll beat the Cavs but they'll make 'em work and that'll be a good show. The best is still ahead for the Pistons.
So who I got?
1 Popovich (Spurs)
2 Casey (Raptors)
3 Clifford (Hornets)
4 Carlyle (Mavs)
5 Kerr (Warriors) (I guess I gotta have him in my top 5--they were one of the best teams ever!)
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
NBA 6th Man
I gotta start by saying I have no idea what the rules and regulations for the official 6th Man Award are. I started by looking at guys that played at least 1500 minutes (roughly) while starting fewer than half of their games played. There a few notable names not eligible by my way of thinking that may actually be eligible for some votes: Hassan Whiteside (41 starts), Bradley Beal (35 starts in 55 games), Michael Carter-Williams (37 starts in 54 games), Clint Capela (less than 1500 minutes played).
These are the only 59 players that I considered for 6th Man: CJ Miles, Jordan Hill, Shaun Livingston, Jerryd Bayless, Darrell Arthur, Gerald Green, Lavoy Allen, TJ McConnell, Nikola Mirotic, Wayne Ellington, Trevor Booker, Dennis Schroder, Ramon Sessions, Marcus Smart, Wesley Johnson, Randy Foye, Mirza Teletovic, Patrick Mills, Alonzo Gee, Shabazz Muhammad, Corey Brewer, JJ Barea, Stanley Johnson, Ed Davis, Enes Kanter, Frank Kaminsky, Marco Belinelli, Shane Larkin, Terrence Ross, Andre Iguodala, Thabo Sefolosha, Nik Stauskas, Bismack Biyombo, Doug McDermott, Jrue Holiday, Aaron Gordon, Matthew Dellavadova, Omri Casspi, Lou Williams, Isiah Canaan, Jeremy Lin, Langston Galloway, Patrick Patterson, Ryan Anderson, Cory Joseph, Jared Dudley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Allen Crabbe, Hollis Thompson, Dion Waiters, Jamal Crawford, Raymond Felton, Gorgui Dieng, Justise Winslow, Evan Turner, Darren Collison, Tristan Thompson, Zach LaVine, Will Barton
Next I looked at the following 5 stats: FGA, FTA, Rebounds, Assists, Steals. Only 1 player listed above finished in the top 150 in the league in all 5 categories: Gorgui Dieng. 12 other players were in 4 of the categories: Will Barton, Zach LaVine, Darren Collison, Dennis Schroder, Evan Turner, Isiah Canaan, Jeremy Lin, Lou Williams, Omri Casspi, Cory Joseph, Nikola Mirotic, Jamal Crawford. My gut is that these are the guys giving you more bang for your buck.
Out of this group of 13 the biggest upside surprise is Darren Collison, no idea that guy had such a good year: best asst:to and an eye-popping 48.6% FG%. Evan Turner actually leads this list in assists despite the appearance of number of PGs. Lou Williams is a distant 1st place in FTA, shooting at a solid 83%. Will Barton piled on a lot of points at a good (not great) FG%. But of these players, I gotta go with Gorgui Dieng: 1st in Steals, Blocks, Rebounds (off & def), VORP (2.3) and 2nd in FG% with a solid FTA and FT%. He contributes all across the stat sheet and does so at a reasonable rate--dude's grinding!
I went back and included Enes Kanter and Andre Iguodala because I think they'll get some consideration and I just wanted to see how they compared. Kanter dominates Rebounds (especially ORB) and 2FGs (shooting at 58%!) even though he's next to last in minutes played; yes, his defensive stats are not good (and he sure doesn't pass the eyeball test on D) but his offensive stats seem to fit precisely the role his team needs him to play. As does Iguodala, whose numbers are fine though nothing superlative, but his role off the bench is more specific than the numbers suggest. Hey, man, I like numbers as much as the next guy but there are intangibles in the game that the best team in the league requires that don't get captured by the stats.
I'll take Gorgui Dieng as 6th Man of the Year. Enes Kanter, Andre Iguodala, Evan Turner, Will Barton and Darren Collison just to round out the top 6.
These are the only 59 players that I considered for 6th Man: CJ Miles, Jordan Hill, Shaun Livingston, Jerryd Bayless, Darrell Arthur, Gerald Green, Lavoy Allen, TJ McConnell, Nikola Mirotic, Wayne Ellington, Trevor Booker, Dennis Schroder, Ramon Sessions, Marcus Smart, Wesley Johnson, Randy Foye, Mirza Teletovic, Patrick Mills, Alonzo Gee, Shabazz Muhammad, Corey Brewer, JJ Barea, Stanley Johnson, Ed Davis, Enes Kanter, Frank Kaminsky, Marco Belinelli, Shane Larkin, Terrence Ross, Andre Iguodala, Thabo Sefolosha, Nik Stauskas, Bismack Biyombo, Doug McDermott, Jrue Holiday, Aaron Gordon, Matthew Dellavadova, Omri Casspi, Lou Williams, Isiah Canaan, Jeremy Lin, Langston Galloway, Patrick Patterson, Ryan Anderson, Cory Joseph, Jared Dudley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Allen Crabbe, Hollis Thompson, Dion Waiters, Jamal Crawford, Raymond Felton, Gorgui Dieng, Justise Winslow, Evan Turner, Darren Collison, Tristan Thompson, Zach LaVine, Will Barton
Next I looked at the following 5 stats: FGA, FTA, Rebounds, Assists, Steals. Only 1 player listed above finished in the top 150 in the league in all 5 categories: Gorgui Dieng. 12 other players were in 4 of the categories: Will Barton, Zach LaVine, Darren Collison, Dennis Schroder, Evan Turner, Isiah Canaan, Jeremy Lin, Lou Williams, Omri Casspi, Cory Joseph, Nikola Mirotic, Jamal Crawford. My gut is that these are the guys giving you more bang for your buck.
Out of this group of 13 the biggest upside surprise is Darren Collison, no idea that guy had such a good year: best asst:to and an eye-popping 48.6% FG%. Evan Turner actually leads this list in assists despite the appearance of number of PGs. Lou Williams is a distant 1st place in FTA, shooting at a solid 83%. Will Barton piled on a lot of points at a good (not great) FG%. But of these players, I gotta go with Gorgui Dieng: 1st in Steals, Blocks, Rebounds (off & def), VORP (2.3) and 2nd in FG% with a solid FTA and FT%. He contributes all across the stat sheet and does so at a reasonable rate--dude's grinding!
I went back and included Enes Kanter and Andre Iguodala because I think they'll get some consideration and I just wanted to see how they compared. Kanter dominates Rebounds (especially ORB) and 2FGs (shooting at 58%!) even though he's next to last in minutes played; yes, his defensive stats are not good (and he sure doesn't pass the eyeball test on D) but his offensive stats seem to fit precisely the role his team needs him to play. As does Iguodala, whose numbers are fine though nothing superlative, but his role off the bench is more specific than the numbers suggest. Hey, man, I like numbers as much as the next guy but there are intangibles in the game that the best team in the league requires that don't get captured by the stats.
I'll take Gorgui Dieng as 6th Man of the Year. Enes Kanter, Andre Iguodala, Evan Turner, Will Barton and Darren Collison just to round out the top 6.
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