2026 NBA Final

Knicks over Spurs in 5

Been a while but just wanted to remind myself how f'n amazing Jalen Brunson was all through the playoffs this season. OG Anunoby, too, was letter perfect, did everything asked of him and made the tip in basket in Game Four that will cement his legend status in Manhattan for the rest of his days. Karl-Anthony Towns was really great in the first two games, then reverted back to dipshit Towns for the rest of the series but was still good enough/not damaging enough to make a worthy contribution. Mikael Bridges and Josh Hart were both up and down throughout the playoffs but were great teammates and made the plays needed of them. Landry Shamet and Mitchell Robinson were useful off the bench (Deuce McBride, not so much) and both (have already gotten) new contracts for next year.

As for the Spurs, I thought Coach Mitch Johnson did not have a good series, PG De'Aaron Fox struggled through injuries and just never found his game, 6th Man of the Year Keldon Johnson did not much in the series either, Julian Champagnie was up and down, thought he was better throughout the Western run but spotty at best in the Final. Wembenyama was good but not quite spectacular, Stephon Castle was pretty great except for his bouts of foul trouble, Dylan Harper shined out (though I think the perception that he was ready to take over the team was greatly exaggerated!), Devin Vassell was good but wasn't able to stop Brunson.

Basically all 5 games were the same: the Spurs would jump out to an early lead, Knicks would get it close by halftime; Spurs would jump back early in the 3rd and then the Knicks would dominate the 4th quarter. Only in Game Three (what Knicks fans will simply remember as "The Trump Game") were the Spurs able to score enough in the 4th to hold off the late Knicks charge. In the other four games, they weren't and Brunson owned them.

Where do they go from here? The Spurs are fine, they don't need to change anything. Another year of maturation (*) and a rematch with OKC are what they need to do next year. Everyone wants to trade Fox, and while that contract is daunting (and will have to be traded eventually), I think Fox is still in his prime and had a high ankle sprain in the playoffs, I think he's fine and can lead them deep into the playoffs again. Keldon Johnson was disappointing in the Finals but he's kinda perfect for this team, so I don't see a better replacement out there. This team is fine, no bold moves are necessary.

The Knicks had a uniquely soft run through the playoffs.  I'm not saying they suck, I'm not saying they didn't deserve their championship--I'm just saying they got to run through the Sixers and the Cavs instead of grinding through the Celtics and Pistons. I think they would've beaten the Celtics and the Pistons but they would've had to work a lot harder. Making it to the Final in complete health is the main reason they won, I would say, and it's almost unimaginable that that could happen again next year. Will the Knicks repeat in the East? Not impossible, they are a hell of a squad, they will surely be in the mix, but I doubt it because the run, the health, they had this year was just too perfect to recreate. 

But one last capper on the season: Jalen Brunson is the mother'f'n man and don't forget it.

(*) All year long the Spurs kept Wemby on a minutes limit and, well, they made the Finals. Personally, I'd keep his minutes low for another year, ramping up his minutes starting in March. Why not? No need to burn him out. The challenge in the west is the Thunder and staying healthy and....not much else. The plan worked better than expected this year, I'd give it another year before really throwing Wemby into the deep end.

2025-26 NBA Finals

East

Knicks over Cavs in 4

Game One saw the Cavs pretty well stomp their way through NY for 3.5 quarters and then....well, they just stopped. The Cavs had a 22 point lead with 7 minutes to go and then Donovan Mitchell disappeared and their offense became a nightmare of James Harden dribbling dribbling dribbling and then taking a bad shot, while everyone watching kept wondering why Coach Atkinson never called a time out. Jalen Brunson woke up, went off and frankly the Cavs were lucky to tie it up and take it to OT--where they continued to suck. 

That was it for the Cavs. The next three games weren't even worth playing, the Knicks picked back up the heater they went on against the Hawks and Sixers and just smooshed the Cavs. Knicks fans are ecstatic, Cavs fans are still hitting the Pepto.

Where do the Cavs go? Well, considering that James Harden is the one they're probably most stuck with even though he's the one they ought to be finding a new home for, there's probably not much for the Cavs to do. The one that will get dumped is Jarrett Allen but he's the least expensive of their core and against the Pistons I thought he finally found his niche next to Evan Mobley. Bbut he's the one I most expect to see in a new uni next season. I dunno, man, I don't see the Cavs being better next year, whereas the Pacers and Hawks should be much better, the Heat seem primed for a big move, the Hornet are finally moving in the right direction and the Wizards shouldn't suck, so there's some urgency for the Cavs to at least maintain what they've got. Feels like this version of the Cavs peaked this year. 

West

Spurs over Thunder in 7

Game One was a classic, Game Seven was a classic, the other five games were just kinda watchable. Its easy to say the Spurs have arrived, but considering the Thunder were largely without Jalen Williams and Ajah Mitchell and that Chet Holmgren played as bad as he's probably ever played in his life, the Thunder were still in Game Seven with a coupla minutes to go. The Thunder were actually pretty bad and still could've won, so I don't think this rivalry is done--indeed, I'd be kinda shocked if anyone other than the Spurs and Thunder made the Conference Finals in the next 3 years.

Meanwhile, the Spurs perfectly rounded into shape: Fox was finally really good, Dillon Harper was excellent, Stephon Castle was pretty fuckin' great, Devin Vassell did a little bit of everything, Wemby was Wemby--and they still needed a (now) legendary chase down block by Luke Kornet to preserve the W. (*) 

This series was much closer than it looked. If I was OKC, I'd sign Cason Wallace, let go of Lu Dort, see if I could package their two 1st rounders to move up in the draft, think long and hard about bringing back Hartenstein, and roll the dice with Tomas Sorber and Nikola Topic in the rotation next year. Again, the Thunder were as bad as they've been in a while in this series and they still had their chance to win it. This Thunder run is far from over and I don't think desperate measures are necessary just yet. 

Finals

Knicks @ Spurs

This Spurs run has been about them figuring out their opponents: the Blazers stole a game from them, then the Spurs shut them down; the Wolves had moments against Wemby but once the Spurs got their number, it was over; the Thunder were pesky but the Spurs won the two classic games and outside of a strange letdown in Game Three, were generally the better team. I still say this is De'Aaron Fox's team and when he's right, that is peak Spurs. They're good around him, they're good without him, but he keeps them focused and moving forward, Fox is the key to this team. 

Wemby is Wemby. He's still young and he hasn't really yet built up to this level of play, but he's really good right now and a virtually impossible match up for every team in the league. Castle is turning into a star, so is Harper. Vassell and Bryant are solid contributors and Kornet and Harrison Barnes are still valuable to this young team. 

The Knicks were a nice--not great--team all season long. Then after going down 2-1 to the Hawks in the 1st round, the switch got flipped and they have pummeled everyone and everything ever since. One can point out that they didn't have to play the Celtics or Pistons in their run through the East, but if the Knicks were playing like this, I can confidently say they would've pummeled the Pistons and the Celtics. The Celtics were begging to lose and the Pistons were just too one-dimensional, neither of them would've given the Knicks much of a game, I'd say. 

Yes, the Spurs have faced superior competition than the Knicks have so far, but that doesn't matter now. Furthermore, the Blazers--even at their best--weren't as good as the Spurs this year; the Wolves were forced to give big minutes to Mike Conley after Donte Divincenzo got hurt and the Thunder were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, which severely limited their offense. The Spurs' opponents had their flaws, too, so the path to the Final is not that meaningful to me this year. 

The Spurs didn't play anyone as offensively dynamic as the Knicks, nor anyone with the swagger (whether deserved or not) of the Knicks. The Knicks are playing better than the Thunder right now and the Spurs didn't exactly run the Thunder out of the gym. 

I still say the Knicks are at their best when Towns is the offensive focus, but there's no way that'll work for 7 games. But I think they can get 2 Towns games and 2 Brunson games and win it all. Anunoby has been great all post-season, Mikal Bridges took a while to get going but he was great against the Cavs, Josh Hart isn't gonna quit and he is guaranteed to make a handful of big plays in this series and if they can get anything out of Landry Shamet, they could run up the score if the Spurs give a listless performance. The Knicks will really need Mitchell Robinsn, for at least 4-5 games, if they get that, the Knicks will be the better team.

Wemby is great but at this point he is still additive, not a cornerstone. Castle and Harper, too, are additive, I don't see either of them taking over games at this level. Fox has to outplay Towns and/or Brunson for 4 games and while that is possible, it is a tough ask. 

I think the Knicks are ready for this, while the Spurs are on house money. I got the Knicks in 6.

(*) Oh, and Carter Bryant looks like another badass in waiting. 

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after two rounds)

East

Cavs over Pistons in 7

This felt like a classic home team wins every game series and for the first 4 games, that's how it played. Then the Cavs stole Game Five in Detroit: Pistons were up 9 with 3 minutes to go, the game felt well in hand to me, but then the Pistons just straight ran out of gas and could not score again to save their lives. The Cavs took it to OT and dominated the extra period. But the Pistons came back strong in Cleveland, while the Cavs floundered badly and it went back to Detroit for Game Seven. Right away, the Cavs got buckets, Donovan Mitchell was getting assists finding Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen, the Pistons couldn't get their shooting going and it was all over. The Pistons vaunted D absolutely cratered as their lack of offense turned into confident possessions for the Cavs. 

The Pistons were a one-note team all year long but at the end of the season they kept getting W's without Cade and that impressed me, I thought the supporting cast could go up a level once Cade got back. In their best moments against the Magic and the Cavs, that kinda happened; but in their worser moments, it did not. Jalen Duren had a frighteningly bad (considering it is a contract year for him) run against Wendell Carter and Evan Mobley, Tobias Harris had to work too hard to find his scoring (when he did find it), Ausar Thompson's complete lack of offense becomes glaring in the post-season, Duncan Robinson had a nice run but missed a coupla games, Isiah Stewart and Paul Reid had some nice moments but didn't really sustain, Kevin Huerter was hurt and Daniss Jenkins is nice--the only guy that showed up for Game Seven!--but wasn't much of a difference maker. The rotation behind Cade is just so-so, which really makes you appreciate how damn good Cade was this year. The season was a pleasant surprise but, man, this summer is not looking good for them. They have a lot of questions, we'll see if they come up with some answers. 

Knicks over Sixers in 4

The Knicks got hot against the Hawks and kept it going. I didn't watch much of this series, because it was over so quick. The Knicks are on a seven game winning streak, playing their best ball of the season. 

The Sixers overachieved against the Celtics (who underachieved) only to receive a vicious reminder that they were not one of the best 8 teams in the NBA this year. Tyrese Maxey is stretching into a great team leader, VJ Edgecombe would've won Rookie of the Year in most seasons and Paul George really found something after his suspension late in the season. I've never been a Joel Embiid fan (and I'm still not), but he must still be considered part of their core because the Sixers are on the hook for another $180m to him so clearly he's not going anywhere. Adem Bona is a workable rotation guy. They got important minutes out of Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes and Andre Drummond this year, are any of those guys coming back and, if not, how do they get replaced? Where do they go from here? They've got Maxey and Edgecombe and the #22 pick...and...well....they've still got their 1st rounder for 2027, so I'm guessing they're on their way to a rebuild (I believe they call it a "Process" in Philly).  Could they swap Paul George for Jimmy Butler to get off big money without picking up any stray W's? They've already fired GM Darryl Morey, just the beginning of a clumsy summer ahead for the Sixers.

West

Thunder over Lakers in 4

Yawn! Another quick shredding for the Thunder that I barely paid attention to. 

The Lakers were without Luka Doncic for the entire series and as Austin Reaves was returning from an injury, his performance was up and down. Lebron is still a great player but he was all alone out there, squeezing what he could out of Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard and a mildly rejuvenated Marcus Smart (he was pretty good actually, but just not enough to make a difference). They didn't have enough to even come close to hanging with the Thunder. With Luka, maybe they would've scratched a game or two out of them, but I doubt even that would've made much difference. Next year, all they have right now is Luka, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia and Dalton Knecht with player options on Ayton (maybe), Smart (probably not) and Reaves, who they need to re-sign (or sign and trade) and the #25 pick . Will they bring back Lebron (doesn't seem like it) or Kennard (I doubt it) or Hachimura (I have no idea). Do people want to play with Luka? Do they want the bright lights of the Lakers? 

Spurs over Wolves in 6

News flash: Wemby is awesome and Dillon Harper is ready to be a major player. Weird series in that all the games were blow outs, as well matched as these two seemed to be, there were no interesting 4th quarters in the whole series. The three headed monster of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper ran roughshod over the undermanned Wolves. When the Wolves were able to find their shooting touch, they won, but they just didn't do that often enough. They had a lot of length to throw at Wemby but without the requisite scoring, it didn't matter. Julius Randle was set up to be the difference maker and in the first game, he was exactly that; then....he never did that again and whatever advantage the Wolves had evaporated. Also, Rudy Gobert was not good in this series, I wouldn't say he got dominated by Wemby, he just wasn't good. And there was just too much Mike Conley, who had to play expanded minutes because of the loss of Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs are ahead of schedule and not afraid of the OKC Thunder.

Can the Wolves run it back? Are we ready to say that Gobert is not the Wemby Kryptonite the Wolves need and therefore needs to be traded? Not sure. Is Joan Beringer ready to be the new Gobert and/or the new Wemby Kryptonite? Not sure. Is Naz Reid overrated or underrated? Not sure. (*) Ayo Dosunmu was a revelation against the Nuggets but was mostly invisible against the Spurs 3-guard attack; Bones Hyland, too, emerged against the Nuggets and then submerged against the Spurs; so do they bring those guys back or let them walk? Not sure. Terrence Shannon had moments in this playoff run, is he ready to be a regular contributor in that offense? Not sure. Julius Randle had good moments and bad moments--which he's done his entire career--do they move on from him or hope that he bounces back? Not sure. This team has Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and....a whole lot of "not sure". I'd say Shannon and Beringer are definitely gonna be a big part of next year's lineup and I would certainly keep Reid, but Gobert and Randle will probably be available and I'm not sure how eager they are to keep Dosunmu, Hyland or Conley. For a team that made back-to-back Western Finals and had moments of looking competitive with the Spurs, the Wolves might be a totally different team next year.

Predictions

Cavs - Knicks

The Cavs have been an unpredictable disappointment guided by Donovan Mitchell (finally reaching the pinnacle of his career right now), James Harden (overrated in his prime and now past his prime) and Even Mobley (projected to be the next super stud who is actually just a nice, overpaid play). When these three bring their best, the Cavs can run up the score, move the ball and play enough defense to hold a lead. But when they don't, it just looks awful and frustrating. Their wins against the Raptors and the Pistons were enlivening, but the losses were dispiriting. To be fair, those are two of the better defenses in the league--both much better than the Knicks--and the Cavs managed to find a way. 

The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season right now but, to be fair, those wins came against the overachieving Hawks and the lucky-to-be-here Sixers, not as impressive as the Cavs opponents. OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl-Anthony Towns is attacking and avoiding the dumb mistakes that have plagued him his whole career, Josh Hart is running around like a mad man and Jalen Brunson has done just enough, mostly able to keep his powder dry. If the Knicks keep this going, they can roll right over the Cavs, who would fall to pieces under such an onslaught. But if the Knicks falter, have a bad shooting, or run into foul trouble, this series could sideways with a quickness. Indeed, the Knicks could be riding for a major fall--and Knicks fans know it better than anyone. 

The Knicks are the better team but are quite capable of blowing it. The Cavs have the necessary pieces but have yet to really properly deploy those pieces. I'm gonna go off the board: I think the key matchup is Jarret Allen v Mikal Bridges. When the Knicks are rolling, Bridges is the big beneficiary, but when he disappears (which was a lot against the Hawks), the Knicks don't get those extra productivity bumps; the Cavs have never found the right balance for Mobley and Allen, but against the Pistons, it felt to me like their roles emerged. If they overpower Mitchell, it'll require Towns and/or Hart to change up the way they play. It is a seemingly small thing, but if Allen can keep up his play at both ends, that makes everything so much easier for Mobley, which in turn makes everything harder for the Knicks defense. The Knicks think they can outscore the Cavs, but Allen could be the key to upsetting that equilibrium.

Also, unlike the Cavs-Pistons series where I thought the home team had the advantage, I think the opposite in this series. The Knicks can dominate in Cleveland while I think the Cavs could silence the NYC crowd. I'm going reverse home court advantage: I like the Cavs in 6.

Spurs - Thunder

Gonna be awesome. Can't wait. I haven't watched much Thunder (because neither the Suns nor the Lakers put up much to watch) this post-season and really only glimpses here and there of the Spurs (the Blazers were harmless fun but the Wolves games were all too one-sided to be watchable). I think the Thunder are the best roster in the NBA and really only the Spurs can hang with them. What's gonna happen? No idea. I will make this prediction: the Spurs wins will all be close, but the Thunder's wins might becomes blowouts. I'll take Thunder in 7 (solely because I want to see this match up the maximum number of times). 

(*) To me the answer is Naz Reid is underrated, but I've yet to meet anyone that agrees with me--which only proves me right! (Right?)

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after one round)

East

Pistons 93-79 Magic

Magic 94-116 Pistons

After getting killed at halftime of Game Five, the Pistons finally turned their game back on and left the Magic in the dust. The Magic have a nice collection of players (which is why ever year we think "this is the year for the Magic!"), but I've never quite understood how they fit together (which is why they've been disappointing for 3 straight years). The Magic blew out the Hornets in the play-in, then won 3 out of 4 against the Pistons, then took a mighty lead to halftime of Game Five....but it was a just a sugar rush, a rare moment when everyone got hot. They couldn't sustain it. I thought Wendell Carter was great for the first few games but he faded down the stretch, Desmond Bane had his moments, too, but not enough of them and Jarrell Suggs is additive on defense but everyone else has to be going for his efforts to really shine through. I have newfound respect for Paulo (Cade Jr.) Banchero, that kid is a monster, but he's just a kid and he didn't have enough around him. The Pistons, a strangely similar team as the Magic, have better veterans and had more sustained success all season long, and though they are still too one-dimensional, at least they know what their dimension is and get back to that model often enough to be a tough out going forward. 

Knicks 140-89 Hawks

Stop! They're already dead! Man, this one was over super fast. OG Anunoby single-handedly destroyed the Hawks in Game Six and everyone else did, too. The Hawks just couldn't get anything going, while the Knicks were scoring in every way possible. Knicks in 6 was about right the whole time, but they did scuffle from time to time and let the Hawks have the feeling that they had a chance. The Hawks are moving in the right direction, I think they finally have a proper core to build around, I still like the coach and they gave the Knicks some truly feisty moments. But they weren't ready for this series and the Knicks were. The Knicks finally took control in the last two games and stifled the upstarts. 

Celtics 93-106 Sixers

Sixers 109-100 Celtics

Somewhere in the 3rd quarter of Game Five, the Celtics just kinda gave up. In that match they overplayed Tatum and Brown, got away from their bench mob style they employed so real all season long and wanted to have a star contest, which led to Joel Embiid coming back from the dead and Jaysun Tatum going back to the injured list. I'm a big fan of Coach Mazzulo but, man, I put this loss on him: he did everything right all season long and then mixed it up going into the post-season and I don't understand why. The bench mob style was working and even if you think that can't go deep in the playoffs, it got you a 3-1 lead in the first round, why not stick to what's working? In the 4th quarter of Game Seven Jaylen Brown finally came alive and there was an opportunity for the Celtics to shoot their way to the next round, but it just didn't happen. I understand if you think you have to tighten up the rotation against the Knicks or Cavs but the open style they played all year long should've worked against the Sixers. As for the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey (the LEADER of this team!) was awesome, Paul George really turned it on in the last few games, I thought rookie VJ Edgecombe was up and down (the Sixers won his good games and lost his bad games), and they were able to get some quality offense out of Embiid. If they can keep their ultra-fast guards in tune with their slow-burn veterans, they could give the Knicks a scare.

Cavs 110-112 (OT) Raptors

Raptors 102-114 Cavs

In Game Six, I thought the Raptors had the game won, like, three different times, but then I thought the Cavs had it won three different times, too! I can't remember a game that went back and forth so late like that. I still thought the Cavs were the better team throughout and really should've finished it off in Game Six. For the Cavs to let this get a 7th game was a real head-scratcher. But the Raptors play hard and took the Cavs to 7 games without Immanuael Quickley or Brandon Ingram, but when Scottie Barnes (*) got into foul trouble in the 3rd quarter of Game Seven, that was pretty much it for Toronto. It was like taking the engine out of a car....it still has a radio, I guess, but its not much of a car. The Cavs felt their anuses tightening but James Harden and Donovan Mitchell were both able to skate through Game Seven without much consternation. Man, Barnes just works so f'n hard, he alone makes the Raptors a pain in the ass, if they could get some real help around him (I should admit at this point I'm not much of an RJ Barrett fan, big guy can make plays from time to time but when push comes to shove he's sloppy and in over his head), the Raptors might be a real contender in the East next year. As for the Cavs, they got good minutes from Dean Wade and Max Strus and there were moments when Evan Mobley really came alive, you can see the outline of a really good team here, we'll see if they can give the Pistons a shock.

West

Nuggets 98-110 Wolves

Jaden McDaniels! Donte DiVincenzo is out, Anthony Edwards is out, no problem, Jaden McDaniels will make up the difference. It felt like the Nuggets finally had their ducks in a row, felt like the best supporting cast they'd had in a while, but Christain Braun wasn't the answer, Cam Johnson was up and down and never really felt right in the rotation and Bruce Brown wasn't the same guy he was when they went on their championship run. Jamal Murray had maybe his best season but he was asked to do too much in the post-season and Nikola Jokic (another MVP season, I say) was just gassed at the end of these games and never felt in command the way he usually does. There's gonna be some serious soul-searching this summer in Denver, because it felt last summer like they'd finally figured it out....and they had not. As for the Wolves, hey man Rudy Gobert has ALWAYS been good against Jokic! And Julius Randall does not back down from any situation and they got good minutes from Naz Reid and Mike Conley and the rest of their rotation was ready for anything. This Wolves squad, assuming they got Edwards back soon, is gonna be a tough out for the Spurs. 

Lakers 98-78 Rockets

Man, as flimsy as the Lakers 3-1 lead felt in this series, in a year when 3-1 leads were going by the wayside, it still never felt like the Rockets were gonna get their shit together. I thought Coach Udoka was the right guy for this roster and I thought Kevin Durant was the right guy to add last summer, but it looks to me like those are the two dudes that kept this team from rising up. Coach Udoka just never found Jabari Smith's role and he never gave the keys to Reed Sheppard--dude, it doesn't matter if you don't like those guys, those are the guys you have! Coach never figured out how to build an offense with them. Instead he turned the team entirely over to KD, who was good enough to pile up stats but not good enough to lead a team to wins in the post-season. I still like most of what this roster has but, man, Durant has to go and I suddenly think the coach has to go, too, even though it wasn't that long ago they felt like the ideal guiding lights. This is Sengun's team, Thompson is the perfect right-hand man, but Jabari and Reed have to find their place on this squad and if they can't work them in, then this team will go nowhere. The Rockets don't need to re-build, they just need to re-think what they've got. As for the Lakers, Lebron, baby, still got it!

Quarterfinals

Cavs @ Pistons

The Cavs really should be the better team and while the Pistons don't play with frenzy the way the Raptors do, they will be more reliable scorers and defenders, which is gonna be just as hard for the Cavs to deal with. The Magic were young guns playing with house money and they caught the Pistons off guard, but the Pistons weathered the storm and are the better (version of the same) team, but the veteran savvy of the Cavs is a totally different matter. The Cavs and Pistons were just waiting for each other, but they both scuffled against younger, hungrier (if dumber) teams that made them each work in a way that feels depleting rather than invigorating. So who has more left in the tank? Well, the Pistons are still too one-dimensional and for all the praise being heaped on Tobias Harris, I thought he mostly sucked until Game Seven; but Harris the vet against the other vets, should probably be a more consistent scorer. Jalen Duren had troubles early on against Wendell Carter, but eventually managed to make the plays necessary; I kinda think against Evan Mobley, it'll be the other way around: Duren should have his way with Mobley early on, it is a matter of whether Mobley can swing the momentum (which is a 50/50 prospect). The supporting cast of the Cavs (Wade, Strus, Schroeder) actually strikes me as better than the Pistons supporting cast (Robinson, Thompson, Stewart, Huerter), but not wildly so and actually Thompson alone can reek the Raptors-style havoc that may pull the Cavs apart. To me this comes down to the Pistons one dimension (Cade Cunningham) versus the Cavs' two-headed monster (Donovan Mitchell, James Harden). If the Cavs can comfortably pass back responsibility and get buckets, they can win this series; but if they struggle then Cade's consistency can rule the day. Though I find the Pistons' one-dimensional-ness a liability, I think it's more reliable than the Cavs. I think the Pistons take this in 7.

Sixers @ Knicks

The Sixers found a potent mix of youthful energy (Maxey, Edgecombe) and veteran contemplation (George, Embiid) against the Celtics and were able to pull the better team apart. Can they do that to the Knicks? Well, the trick to the Knicks is: they will either pull themselves apart or they won't, the opponent doesn't much matter. I think the Knicks are better when Karl-Anthony Towns is aggressive, when Towns is the one setting the scene for the Knicks offense as opposed to Jalen Brunson, who I think is better as the emergency option, the change of pace guy that flips the script. Starting with Towns and moving to Brunson is their best bet, I think, because it gets the supporting cast open shots early on and then morphs them to crashing the boards and/or getting into transition defense. If their energy flows to getting everyone involved on offense first and then defense to close, that just strikes me as the best possible Knicks effort. The Sixers seem overly reliant on Embiid, babying him along early in the game, hoping they can get something out of him later on. To me, this is Maxey's team, you let Maxey figure out the best way to utilize Embiid and just trust that model. That said, Embiid has been effective and if he starts hitting his 3's, then it might really stretch the Knicks defense out of shape, allowing room for Edgecombe to tear shit up. I think the best version of the Knicks is better than the best version of the Sixers, but the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Sixers will probably be better than whatever the Knicks collapse into. It is important for the Knicks to control these games and I think they will, but I think the Sixers are offbeat enough to make them work. I like Knicks in7

Lakers @ Thunder

I didn't watch a single minute of the Thunder over the Suns. On the one hand, I haven't seen them so I don't know what they look like; on the other hand, I didn't have to watch them, which suggests they're doing just fine and I know exactly what that looks like. The Thunder are the most low-key colossus of my lifetime: they don't rush, they don't fret, they don't dominate, they're just better than you. They don't make dumb mistakes and they don't panic. (**) Are they better than the Lakers? Absolutely! The Lakers have been without Luka Doncic so far in the post-season, I presume he'll be returning soon. The rest of the squad had a nice little run against the Rockets, a perfect team-building exercise, where Hachimura had moments, Luke Kennard looked damn good at times, Austin Reaves stretched his legs after some time off and Deandre Ayton is steadily becoming what they want him to be. And Lebron is still a  maestro. If I'm the Lakers, I'd like to give this iteration of the team a couple games before bringing back Luka. I want to see if this new team concept can really find the gumption to surprise the Thunder in Game One (not impossible). Then we see how OKC reacts, then the Lakers can bring back Luka in Game Three (if he's ready). Then it becomes Luka's team again but ideally with a period of everyone figuring out their best contribution. Meh, its worth something like a shot. I like this Lakers squad, they're playing pretty good and if OKC falters or has some weird out of body experience, I think this Laker team is the kind of team that can rise to the occasion. But I don't think OKC will falter much, they've played well against the Lakers over the years, I don't think they're afraid of Luka or Lebron or the Laker aura. In fact I think they see the Lakers as exactly the kind of team they can finish off pronto. I like the Thunder in 5. 

Wolves @ Spurs

An interesting one. The Spurs are probably a year ahead of schedule, the Wolves have made back-to-back Final Fours. Veteran savvy or youthful exuberance? I like the Spurs, obviously everyone credits Wemby, and he's due some flowers. But I think this is De'Aaron Fox's team and the real marginal growth is coming from Stefon Castle. At this point, Wemby is still just a bonus, which is why they're a year early (***). What is the relationship between Wemby and Gobert? Who has whose number in that matchup? Don't know yet, but we're gonna find out. Losing Divencenzo is a real heart breaker for the Wolves and if Edwards misses significant time, then this is probably a wrap. But if Edwards can counter Fox and McDaniels can muzzle Castle, then this is a real series. Who do the Spurs have to match up with Julius Randle? Randle is the wild card, it feels like the other matchups will neutralize each other, so it is up to Randle to shoot the Wolves into (or out of) the next round. I think the Spurs aren't quite ready, I think Gobert is playing really well right now and gonna take it to Wemby, I think Edwards, McDaniels and Randle can overpower Fox and Castle. I like the Wolves in 6.

(*) How do we get Scottie Barnes and Paulo Banchero together? Or Barnes with Cade and a Thompson twin? Dear God.....

(**) When I first sat down to do my MVP evaluation, I didn't even have Shai Gilgeous in my top 10. This is largely because OKC is so well-balanced that SGA doesn't have to go above and beyond all that often, SGA doesn't have to bust out and put up big numbers because the team beyond him can easily make up for an off night. On the other hand, the team has the luxury to go off from time to time because their leader is so poised and consistent that he makes things easy for everyone else. So is SGA the MVP because he's so slyly awesome or is he not because his supporting cast makes it easy for him? What a beautiful conundrum for OKC to have. 

(***) Oh and if Dillon Harper becomes next year's blow up guy for the Spurs, that means they'll be able to keep Wemby on a pitch count for another year. This isn't even Wemby's team yet--and probably won't be for two more years! Wemby is still just icing, they don't even need him to be cake for another year or two!

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 5 games)

East

Pistons 105-113 Magic

Pistons 88-94 Magic

Magic 109-116 Pistons

Okay, with the Magic up 3-1 after 4 games, a complete re-evaluation is in order. The Pistons were the top seed in the East but we all knew they were too one-dimensional; the Magic has a nice batch of talent but this was another season of mediocrity and chaos behind the scenes. Of the play-in teams, the Magic felt the LEAST likely to test the Pistons. The Magic stole Game One, okay that happens. The Pistons rebounded in Game Two as expected. But back in Orlando, the Magic came alive and kinda easily handled the #1 seed in back to back outings. Again, the Magic have nice talent, no doubting that, but Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner have never been a good match, their coach seems like a weirdo and the bench is nothing special. Felt like the Pistons had been exposed as too thin. Jalen Duren has been getting worked by Wendell Carter (and by his girlfriend on TikTok), Tobias Harris has been underwhelming when the Pistons really need him to be the veteran scorer, Duncan Robinson has moments then disappears, Daniss Jenkins had been a fine discovery off the bench but he seems to have vanished, Kevin Huerter has been injured. That thin bench just keeps looking thinner (oh, and Caris LaVert has been utterly useless, I don't think he's playable). 

I thought the Pistons had turned a corner and the Magic had not. After 5 games, it feels like the other way around. For the Magic, Banchero has been great, Carter has been great, Suggs has been crazy active (but slightly foul prone), and the injury to Wagner hasn't set them back at all. Personally, I still think the Pistons are gonna get this done. I think Cade is the star of this match up and the Magic have already overacheived. The down side is no matter how this turns out, I'm gonna feel bad for the loser: either the Pistons let a great season and #1 seed slip away or the Magic gack up a 3-1 lead (which would pretty much spell the end of their beleaguered coach). Either way, YIPES!

I gotta go with Pistons in Game Six and Seven. I still think they're the better team and Cade has been doing it by himself all year long, shouldn't matter now. 

Celtics 108-100 Sixers

Celtics 128-96 Sixers

Sixers 113-97 Celtics

The Celtics have been the better team throughout this match until Game Five when the Sixers resurrected Joel Embiid and gave their offense an entirely different feel, which inexplicably threw off the Celtics. Embiid was pretty good in the 2nd half, but there was still no reason for the Celtics to let this one get away, they were doing just fine until they just stopped playing midway through the 3rd quarter. Rather then utilizing their very effective bench, they overplayed Brown and Tatum and let Embiid set the tempo....why? I can't help but feel like Coach Mazzulo wanted to go back to Philly. 

Both teams are better on the road, so my guess is the Celtics will finish this is Game Six. For the Celtics it's all about the 3-point shooting, if they can find their range again, this series will over pronto. 

Knicks 108-109 Hawks

Knicks 114-98 Hawks

Hawks 97-126 Knicks

The Knicks are the better side, the Hawks are nice but nothing special, both of the Hawks wins were by a combined 2 points and the only thing keeping them afloat is CJ McCollum's heat check. For the Knicks, OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl Anthony Towns has been good when he's attacking, Jalen Brunson has taken over when needed and Josh Hart has been additive on defense (and not much on offense). Mikael Bridges has been  kinda awful and the rest of the bench has yet to add much, but the Knicks are the better team and they should've finished this off by now. The Hawks are setting up nicely for next season, but I don't see them moving on to the next round. The Knicks cruised in the last two games, I expect them to win in Game Six. 

Cavs 104-126 Raptors

Cavs 89-93 Raptors

Raptors 120-125 Cavs

This series has been a slog because Scottie Barnes has been playing his ass off. The Cavs still seem like the better team and when they've gotten their offense moving, they've won rather easily. Game Five struck me as where this series will go from here: both teams traded baskets for 3 quarters, then the Raptors went cold down the stretch. If it's a shooting contest, gotta go with the Cavs. But the Raptors work hard and sludge up everything, so this could go seven games, but I still think the Cavs are the better team.  

West

Thunder 121-109 Suns

Thunder 131-122 Suns

I didn't watch one second of this series, don't think I even saw any highlights. Saw the Suns complaining about the refs and people still trying to pretend like the Thunder are "villains". Whatever.

Spurs 120-108 Blazers

Spurs 114-93 Blazers

Blazers 95-114 Spurs

The Blazers had a good season, Dani Avdija busted out, the rotation feels like its ready to take another step forward (and will be welcoming Dame Lillard back next season); unfortunately their brand new owner seems like a cheapskate, he's already low balling their interim coach when he's already likely to be one of the lowest paid coaches in the league (he had a good year, hire him already, good gawd!). That said, the Spurs are better, deeper and already ready to take a step forward. The Spurs had a bit of scare when Wemby went down hard and missed a game and half due to concussion. But even still the Blazers couldn't take advantage and this was over in 5 (like we all knew it would be).

Nuggets 96-113 Wolves

Nuggets 96-112 Wolves

Wolves 113-125 Nuggets

Okay, this was already set to be a bare knuckle brawl. Then in Game Three the Wolves lost Donte DiVincenzo in the first minute and Anthony Edwards just a few minutes later. The Nuggets....lost anyway, because Aaron Gordon is just not 100% right now and the rest of the supporting cast just isn't as good as we thought they would be. The Wolves were up 3-1 after 4 but without two of their main guys. So who's more injured? The Wolves only need 1 more victory but they're missing their best player (and then hopefully would get Edwards back in the next round), while the Nuggets need (now) 2 more wins but they're missing their third best player. The Wolves better win it tonight in Minneapolis or they will be kicking themselves all summer. 

Lakers 112-108 (OT) Rockets

Lakers 96-115 Rockets

Rockets 99-93 Lakers

The Rockets never found any consistency all year long, were playing like shit down the stretch, fell behind 3-0 to the Lakers and then ruled out Kevin Durant (....with an injury? What injury?). Didn't feel like it was going well for them but they did bounce back in the last two games and have some momentum and identity going back home for Game Six and the Lakers are still without Luka Doncic (but have returned Austin Reaves). I think this one is going to Game Seven, but I gotta go with the Lakers to finish it back home. 

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 2 games)

East

Magic 112-101 Pistons

Magic 83-98 Pistons

The Magic's surprisingly effective performance in Game One was not as shocking as all that. The Magic rallied through the play-on game and kept it rolling against a Piston squad that hasn't played a meaningful game in weeks--hey, good for them. I had Pistons in 5 and I'm sticking with that pick. In Game Two, the Pistons slunked through the 1st half and then blew the game open right out of halftime and I think that's more representative of the dynamic between these two teams than Game One. The Magic had a nice bubble but I think that's over, I expect the Pistons to be the better team for the next three games. 

Sixers 91-123 Celtics

Sixers 111-97 Celtics

The Sixers taking Game Two was eye-opening but their speed (specifically Maxey and Edgecombe) has the power to overwhelm anyone at any time and I can see them winning another game or two but I still think the Celtics are the better, deeper team and will get through this series. But I'm open to the idea that the Sixers can put a shock into the Celtics (though I still think they're better without Embiid). 

Hawks 102-113 Knicks

Hawks 107-106 Knicks

I thought the Knicks weren't very good in Game One and still won rather easily. I didn't think they're very good in Game Two, either, but were on their way to an easy win when the Hawks suddenly came alive and stole it. I thought this series would be hotly contested and go seven games and I still think that. The Hawks are a nice team but when push comes to shove, the Knicks still have more options to get a win than the Hawks do. 

Raptors 113-126 Cavs

Raptors 105-115 Cavs

The Raptors are a nice team but without Immanuel Quickley they just a man short of keeping up with the Cavs. Quickley may return in Game Three and I would give the Raptors a puncher's chance in the next two games. But not really beyond that. Getting a little push might be a good thing for the Cavs--it might be even better if they just show up and take the next two on the road. The Raptors could still get hot, the Cavs could turn funky, but I doubt it. I think the Cavs will wrap this up fairly quick.  

West

Suns 94-119 Thunder

Suns 107-120 Thunder

Yawn! Devin Booker complaining about the refs after getting thoroughly spanked in the first two games is kinda embarrassing. I hope for the Suns' sake that OKC just finishes this in four, it'll be so much easier for everyone involved. 

Blazers 96-111 Spurs

Blazers 106-103 Spurs

The Blazers just couldn't hang in Game One and frankly were the lesser team in Game Two. But when Wemby went out with a concussion (no word on his availability going forward, but I suspect he'll be out for Game Three), the Blazers were able to spark that into a victory. I like the Blazers but even without Wemby, I think the Spurs are probably the better team. They're both young, so this could still go either way--and without Wemby I don't think anyone would see this as a glorious upset, more just an unfortunate showing for a Spurs team that is probably already a year ahead of schedule anyway. This is an interesting series, was gonna be a fun watch either way but if the Spurs have to do this without Wemby, it'll be a hell of a test for them--and it wouldn't be a shock if the Blazers move on to the next round. 

Wolves 105-116 Nuggets

Wolves 119-114 Nuggets

Even though the Nuggets have a better supporting cast than they've had in a while, they are still too reliant on Jokic and Murray, who both looked gassed in the 4th quarters of these games. Jokic's shooting hasn't been great, while the Wolves seem to be rounding into shape. I had the Nuggets making the final four, but the Wolves could tip this one over real quick in the next two games (and if Wemby can't make it back....dang, man, it could be the Wolves in the final four again).

Rockets 98-107 Lakers

Rockets 94-101 Lakers

Yipes! The Rockets look like absolute shit. The Lakers aren't even doing anything and they cruised in these first two games. The Rockets offense is just not good--Coach Udoka: it really doesn't even matter if you don't like Reed Sheppard, he's all you've got! Udoka's inability to find a groove with Sheppard is killing this team. And--okay, I'll be that guy--Kevin Durant's one man show isn't helping either. They've got to root out the depth of this lineup to find a way to move on and relying on Durant to do everything just isn't gonna get it done. Meanwhile, the Lakers are resting their two best scorers and have encountered no obstacle whatsoever. I thought the Rockets would find themselves in the post-season and I was wrong. Unless Sengun takes over, this team is not gonna win a single game. 

2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

East

Heat 126-127 (OT) Hornets

I was curious to see if the underachieving Heat (right? I mean they're supposed to be better than 10th in the East, right?) could give it to the overachieving Hornets (right? I mean the Hornets have sucked for so long that finishing 9th in the East is worth hanging a banner, right?). The Hornets had a stretch around the all-star break where they were arguably the best team in the league, while Miami had one of their weird injury-plagued, funky rotation seasons. Miami has at least been here before, while the Hornets haven't been anywhere in a long long time. Well, it was a fun game. I can't even count how many times the Heat bungled this game in regulation and again in OT. But bungle it they did and LaMelo streaked from end to end to sneak a buzzer beater layup and a W. (*) So the Heat got bounced and the Hornets get to keep playing. 

Magic 97-109 Sixers

The Magic have had such a woeful offense all year (well, for a few years now), that I can't say that I was surprised by this result. Philly's speed alone would outscore the Magic. So Philly are headed to Boston as your #7 seed and the Magic are headed back to Orlando for a second chance.

Hornets 90-121 Magic

If Bam finishes out the first game in Charlotte, don't you think Miami gives Orlando a much rougher time than the Hornets did? Well, I sure think so. This one was over quick as Charlotte just sorta forgot to show up. The Magic were hitting on all cylinders--something they rarely do!--and this match was a laugher long before halftime. (**) 

(8) Magic @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Pistons in 5)

The Pistons took a leap this season behind a for-real MVP season by Cade Cunnigham. Worth remembering that when Cade got hurt (collapsed lung) near the end of the season, the team rallied without him and held on to the #1 seed. Dang, that was impressive--I totally wrote off the Pistons at that moment. I love a good youth movement squad and though it was about time for Cade to blow up, I was skeptical of the Pistons for most of the season because they just seem too one-dimensional, not enough depth, not enough seasoning, not sure about the coach. But the way they carried on when their leader went down showed me something. And the horrible offense of the Magic is not likely to perturb the Pistons. Now the Hornets could have given the Pistons a struggle, the Heat might've outworked them, the Sixers speed surely would've had them reeling....but the Magic? No worries. I think the Pistons will cruise into the 2nd round. 

(7) Sixers @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

The Sixers are Tyrese Maxey's squad now (and Edgecombe's, too). The idea that they need Joel Embiid to carry them was always fanciful (full disclosure: I was never an Embiid guy), but now it seems downright lunacy to think they need Embiid. Quite the opposite! I think they're better off without him. That said, either way, I think the Celtics are well disciplined, deep and they have played so hard, so well, all season long, I don't see any reason why the Sixers would interrupt them. I think the Celtics mail in one game in Philly (I would bet it's Game Four) and then wrap it up back in Boston. 

(6) Hawks @ (3) Knicks (I'll take Knicks in 7)

This should be a good one. The Knicks are a nice team but I thought they wildly overachieved last year: beat the Pistons in 6--but were the lesser team in all 6 games!, beat the Celtics in 5--but were the lesser team in all 5 games!, fell to the Pacers, who were the better team throughout. People lost their minds when they fired Coach Thibodeau but I thought it was the right move (***). They have a nice collection of talent but they are a weird fit and sometimes that offense becomes standing around watching Brunson go to work (there are worse ways to go). If the Knicks ever find their rhythm, they could be the best team in the league; but until they do, they're actually quite vulnerable to falling prey to a hard working squad that knows who they are. Are the Hawks that squad? They've definitely had moments of feeling that way since they finally got out from under the Trae Young cloud (whose greatest NBA success came when he single-handedly stomped the Knicks in the playoffs a few years back). The Hawks have fallen a bit from their peak this season but if they can get back to that, they can sting this Knicks team. But I think in the end, Brunson will have a monster Game Seven and drag the Knicks into the 2nd round. 

(5) Raptors @ (4) Cavs (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(Sitting here watching Game One, but it hasn't really changed my thinking) The Raptors are a nice squad that are unfortunately overpaid and therefore seem like a disappointment when actually they are a nice squad. The Cavs added James Harden, which should center their offense, allowing Donovan Mitchell to be more additive rather than load-bearing. The Cavs have been kinda disappointing this season but I think they've been waiting for the post-season and they'll tighten up from here. I like the Raptors and they're frisky on the road, but they're just not as deep or reliable as the Cavs. 

West

Blazers 114-110 Suns

Interesting game. Both teams made wild swings back and forth, so the Suns are down by 12, suddenly they're up by 8--and vice versa. Normally a close game stays within a range of 4-6 points with each team going slightly back and forth, but this one had big runs by both teams. And here, the Blazers made the last big run and held off the Suns. I was kinda surprised because it seems to me that all season long the Suns have been the team that beat the teams they should beat and loses to the teams they should lose to; now this sounds rather basic but I assure you, the NBA doesn't work that way. Everybody has good night and bad night, good stretches and bad stretches, but the Suns this year were pretty consistent all year long, they didn't have a lot of upsets nor did they suffer a lot of upsets. So....the Blazers are better than the Suns (at home), right? I can dig it. The Blazers are an interesting team that had a good thing going by season's end. 

Warriors 126-121 Clippers

Everyone will remember this as the Clippers falling apart and Steph Curry as the big hero. But what I saw was Al Horford getting buckets down the stretch and the Clippers being unprepared for points from the scrubs. The Clippers should've won, they were the better team for most of this match, but the Clippers gon' Clip.

Warriors 111-96 Suns

The Warriors were never really in this game. Their philosophy is keep the game close and let Steph go nuts down the stretch. But Steph never warmed up and the Warriors couldn't keep up. Draymond was able to get Devin Booker ejected by the end but I thought that was bull shit! If the ref wanted to warn them both, that's fine; if he wanted to just toss Draymond, that's fine; but the game had already re-started, Booker was literally dribbling the ball when the ref stopped play to throw them both out. I didn't like the call and I still don't. Draymond is a great player but, god, what an annoying dick! The good news is that his season is over. 

East 1st round

(8) Suns @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 5)

I like the Suns, as I said I think they've played to their competition as well as any team I've seen in eons. Well, the Thunder are way better than the Suns, so I don't see the Suns winning too many games. The Thunder have been murdering people all season long (that's two season in a row, if you're paying attention) and I don't see the Suns standing in their way. 

(7) Blazers @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Spurs in 6)

The Spurs blew up this season because Wembyama decided he was ready to play (though he was still clearly on a pitch count all year long--does that continue in the playoffs?) and because the supporting cast around him was a little better than everyone thought they'd be. I'm not surprised the Spurs were good, but even I thought it was a little early for them to get to 2nd place in the vaunted West. The Blazers have been down for a while but with the emergence of Dani Avdija, the Blazers looked as good as they have in a while. Is Donovan Clingen enough to slow down Wemby? Can Avidja and Shaedon Sharpe match the wing scoring of Fox, Castle and Harper? As much as I like the momentum of the Blazers, I think the answer to both of those questions is "no". I like the Blazers to make the Spurs work--everyone should be pissed that the Spurs will have to get better rather than just cruising into the next round--but I just don't see the Blazers outscoring the Spurs more than once or twice in a 7-game series. 

(6) Wolves @ (3) Nuggets (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Gonna be a fun one.  These two have played a few times over the years with some crazy-town results. I think the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while (****), while the Wolves feel like they're sleepwalking. Are the Wolves just biding their time til the playoffs? They can tell themselves that but I don't think the Wolves were better this year in any way than the previous year and that's not a good sign. I still think the series goes 7 but I can't shake the notion that the Nuggets are waaaaaaay better than the Wolves.

(5) Rockets @ (4) Lakers (I'll take Rockets in 6)

Coupla different thoughts on this one: if Luka and Austin Reeves aren't available for the Lakers, than this will be over quickly. But if it is even strength (which is what I'm counting on), I think the conventional wisdom is that the Rockets are sluggish and weird while the Lakers are rounding into shape and looking good at the right time. But I'm gonna throw in a curve ball: I think the Rockets are not built for the regular season; not that their talent is just waiting til the bright lights come on, but that the squad as a whole isn't at their best until they come up against a singular opponent to focus on. Playing the same team 7 times in a row should actually help the Rockets. And I think it will. I think the Rockets will be better in the post-season (meaning this Western conference playoffs are gonna be freakin' awesome).

I think I'll come back between rounds and re-do all my predictions, but for giggles I'll go ahead and play the rest of the playoffs out here and now. 

Eastern Conference Semifinals

(4) Cavs @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(3) Knicks @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

Western Conference Semifinals

(5) Rockets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

(3) Nuggets @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Eastern Conference Finals

(4) Cavs @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 6)

Western Conference Finals

(3) Nuggets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

NBA Finals

Celtics @ Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

The Thunder have been the best team all year long. The Spurs have been breathing down their necks and shown a notable confidence against the Thunder, but I don't think they're ready to move on in the playoffs just yet, one last heartbreak is what Wemby needs to become a true killer. As for the Thunder, they are just casually better than everyone even if they never quite feel dominant. This Spurs team has come real far, real fast but they still have to beat Jokic and rejuvenated Murray in the playoffs and are we sure they're ready to do that? (I am not) I love where the Spurs are going, but they're not there just yet. Can the Thunder beat the Nuggets? They can and I think they will.

That the Celtics should've mailed this season in was a pretty popular opinion last summer. They had just lost Jaysum Tatum to a gruesome season-long injury, traded away Holliday and Porzingis, let Al Horford and Luke Kornet walk, felt like they'd be replacing too much of their rotation to have a shot; but I was dubious at the time (losing Horford, Porzingis and even Holliday was not much of a loss, indeed moving from noisy veterans was probably addition by subtraction). And while I'm not shocked the Celtics were actually really good this year, I am shocked how much better than the Knicks, Cavs and Magic they were--and how quickly Jaysun Tatum came back from injury ready to rock. It'll be a weird ride into the playoffs for the Celtics, but at this moment I think they're the best team in the East. 

(*) Oh, and LaMelo clearly maliciously grabbed Bam Adebayo's ankle and forced him out of the game in the 1st quarter and...well....nobody seemed to care. I was puzzled by this in the moment and still puzzled a few days later. So, we're just injuring dudes now and nothing happens? So, we're Rollerball now?

(**) Want to know why the Hornets made such an impressive leap this regular season? Because in last year's draft they added, Kon Knueppel, Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner, who all played major minutes for this team. They added three impact rotational guys that beefed-up their depth and all from rookie contract players. Wanna know why they got bounced in the play-in? Same reason. Rook don't win in the post, yo.

(***) Quick question: when was Coach Thibs EVER good? All I see is a guy that runs players into the ground, destroys teams and never goes deep in the playoffs. What am I missing?

(****) I was planning on doing my NBA season awards in the same post as my post-season predictions, but I'm double checking my number-crunching, really marinating in the stats this year, so my awards post won't be til later. I say all this to suggest that....I think Jokic is my MVP (again) and Jamal Murray is not gonna be far off. So when I say the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while, what I mean is that Jokic and Murray BOTH may be better than ever. We'll see how it goes. 

2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 

If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 

But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 126-104 Pacers

Cavs 109-129 Pacers

After limping through the first 2 games, the Cavs finally showed up for Game Three and convincingly thumped the Pacers on their own home floor. Then for Game Four, the Cavs didn't show up at all--the score is not indicative of the level of blow out, actually the Cavs balled out in the 4th quarter just to get it to a 20-point loss. The Pacers have surged to a dominant 3-1 lead in the series, they are in command. Donovan Mitchell left the game after halftime but I believe he'll be back for Game Five but even still the Cavs just look bewildered out there. Darius Garland is playing but doesn't look fully healthy and though the rest of the Cavs are ready to play, they have yet to look like they even want to be here. I'm not shocked the Pacers are hanging with the Cavs but I am shocked at how out of it the Cavs look so far. Still a chance they pull it together and come all the way back, but I seriously doubt it. I kinda like the Pacers to win Game Five--and I'd definitely take them to win Game Six back in Indy. 

Celtics 115-93 Knicks 

Celtics 113-121 Knicks

The Celtics have been playing a dangerous game letting the first two games get away from them--even though they were clearly obviously undoubtedly the better team! They finally played all the way to the end in Game Three and took it easily. Then disaster struck: in Game Four Jaysun Tatum (who had been balling out) fell over awkwardly, rolled around in pain and was carted off in a wheelchair; haven't seen the reports yet but the way he went down looked like the worst nightmare: torn Achilles (we'll see).  Game Four was a more even contest but the Knicks were much better after halftime and went on a tear in the 4th quarter to seal it. The Knicks are up 3-1 in the 2nd round and this is the first game where they actually looked like the superior team this playoffs (yeah, I said it before and I still believe: the Pistons were better than the Knicks in all 6 games of the 1st round and somehow managed to lose four of them). The Celtics without Tatum are not gonna be able to win three straight on the Knicks--especially considering they already outplayed the Knicks in three straight games and gave away two of them! Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis have not been good this post-season, so unless those two really come to play, then the Celtics will not be moving on. 

So pretty much all season long, I thought the Celtics and the Cavs would be dueling in the Eastern Conference Finals but it does not look like that's gonna happen. Looking like a rematch of last year's Knick-Pacer quarterfinal, a series I rather enjoyed. 

West

Thunder 104-113 (OT) Nuggets

Thunder 92-87 Nuggets

I actually missed Game Three of this series, an overtime thriller that seemed by most all accounts to be an instant classic. I did, however, catch Game Four which was a sludgy slog of a game where everyone looked beat before the game even started and no one was able to rise above the non-stop defense. The series is even now but I still think the Thunder are the better team, the deeper team, and I think their defensive game plan has finally caught up to Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon is playing his ass off, Christian Braun is all hustle and Jamal Murray has moments, but the Nuggets haven't got much out of Michael Porter Jr (he's obviously hurt) and the minutes they're getting from Russell Westbrook are the epitome of two-steps-forward-one-step-back. The Thunder aren't exactly dominating, Jokic is still a human speed bump, but I do think they're the better team and this series is toughening them up before our eyes. My one concern: it feels like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to pass a little more than he should, he's deferring when I think he needs to be looking to score more, but maybe I'm just seeing things. Jaylin Williams is having a nice--not great--series, Chet Holgren is hustling but not dominating, the supporting cast is holding on but not excelling and yet I think the Thunder are good and getting better and when they finally get away from Jokic, I think they might blow up. I still like the Thunder to win the series, wouldn't be surprised if they took the next two games.

Wolves 102-97 Warriors

Wolves 117-110 Warriors

I think the Wolves are better than the Warriors anyway, but once you remove Steph Curry from the Warrior lineup, it's really not even much of a contest any more. Jimmy Butler is trying, but his one-man-wrecking-crew game isn't as effective in the West as it was in the East and Draymond Green's antics are looking more and more desperate (remember when Dirk Diggler was all coked out of his mind and his life fell apart in the last half of Boogie Nights? Yeah, something like that except this is less fun to watch). Anthony Edwards is casually brilliant, Rudy Gobert looks like a real stopper in the middle again, Julius Randle is playing his way to a big free agent signing this summer and the rest of that cast is pitching in nicely. I think this will be over in 5, then the Wolves get to relax as OKC and Denver keep slugging. 

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 2 games)

East

Pacers 121-112 Cavs

Pacers 120-119 Cavs

The Cavs are in trouble! The Pacers flat out controlled Game One and then made crazy plays down the stretch to steal Game Two. If the Cavs are going to be without Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and/or Deandre Hunter then this series is probably already a wrap. I thought the Pacers would give the Cavs a good run, they're a pretty similar team actually and though I thought the Cavs are better and that they would prevail, these key injuries might be too much to overcome. If the Cavs could've held on Game Two, then I still would've favored them--even with the injuries--but dropping two home games AND a pile of injuries....I gotta go Pacers from here. Indeed, this might be quick.

Knicks 108-105 (OT) Celtics

Knicks 91-90 Celtics

The Celtics on the other hand....man, if they just get average shooting from here on out, I still think they're better than the Knicks and should still win 4 of the next 5 games, You wanna say the Knicks rose up and made big plays but....nah, not really, the Celtics are just getting out of their offense for whatever reason and if they stay in this funk, they're toast. In Game One, after halftime, the Celtics just started chucking 3'd instead of plodding into a proper offensive set; if you're hitting, that's fine, you're gonna win by 30--but if not, you're gonna lose. And then they did it again in Game Two! No idea what the Celtics are doing, but they still have more talent and a better game plan, when they stick to it. This series is up in the air, but I still gotta go with the Celtics in 7.

West

Nuggets 121-119 Thunder

Nuggets 106-149 Thunder

The Thunder have not played a lot of close games this season, they've been clubbing people all year long and haven't really had to dig down and finish games. They should've won Game One, but the Nuggets stayed true, worked hard, got lucky and stole it. Game Two, on the other hand, the Thunder did not mess around. But entering the 4th quarter with a 41-point lead and Jokic fouled out, even I was like, okay, you can take the foot off the gas now. The Thunder are better, deeper and the Nuggets are just overmatched. But they still have Jokic, so the Thunder better buckle down. I think they will. I'll still take the Thunder in 5.

Warriors 99-88 Wolves

Warriors 93-117 Wolves

In Game One, I thought the Wolves Jedi mind-tricked themselves. The Warriors junked up the game and instead of taking control of the game, the Wolves acted as if the sludge fest was somehow to their advantage. It was not. I think they've learned their lesson (we'll see), and since Steph Cutty has suffered a hamstring injury, the Wolves should be the huge fave now. Jimmy Butler can take over but this really isn't team (yet), so I don't see Butler being enough to get past the Wolves. If the Wolves play the game, stick with their tenacious D and shoot reasonably well, they are the better team and should advance. The Warriors will hang, but I like the Wolves in 7.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (1st round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 124-87 Heat

Cavs 138-83 Heat

Oof! The Cavs are just good, man, the Heat had no chance. I kinda like the Heat's personnel but without a full time playmaker, they've got no straw stirring the drink, so the reasonably talented roster gets no service and can't get anything going. This whole series was a shellacking, a reminder that #1 in the East is waaaaaay better than the play-in teams. The Cavs are relaxing before the Pacers come a-callin'.

Celtics 93-95 Magic 

Celtics 107-98 Magic

The Magic don't have enough scoring to hang in general and without Mo Wagner and Jalen Suggs they don't have the depth on defense either. The Celtics do occasionally fall asleep (the great Roger Federer in his prime used to do that, he won a hell of a lot more than he lost), but the Magic are probably not gonna get another chance to take advantage of that quirk. The Magic can look forward to the fact that their youth is still getting better rather than just older, playoff experience builds calluses. The Celtics are warming up for Knicks, I reckon. 

Knicks 118-116 Pistons 

Knicks 94-93 Pistons

Yeah, I still don't buy the Knicks, but clearly with a 3-1 lead, it's hard to imagine they lose three straight. The Pistons, to my mind, bungled away Games One and Three and fell prey to a late KAT attack (a coupla big 3's down the stretch), but I still think they're the better team. Though he has hardly been consistent, Cade Cunningham has balled out, it is clear that this is his team and I think he's been the best player in this series. I still find the Knicks remarkably underwhelming but I can't see them blowing a 3-1 lead, though I can see the Pistons making them work for it, so there's still some fireworks ahead.

Pacers 101-117 Bucks 

Pacers 129-103 Bucks 

The Bucks had one balls-to-the-wall half (2nd half of Game Three) in them to steal a W, but once Dame went down (Achilles' *sigh*) in Game Four that was the end of any lingering day dream of the Bucks rising up. Yeesh, looking ahead: well, Dame's out for next year, they moved on from Middleton and now they're stuck with Kuzma, probably time for Brook Lopez to retire and what do they have left? Oh my, the cupboard is pretty dang bare. (I'm already dreading the forced Giannis trade talk the chatterers will be forcing on us this summer) The Pacers are the one team in the East that can (maybe) hang with the Cavs and Celtics, so just as well that they're moving on sooner rather than later. I presume they will finish in 5.

West

Thunder 114-108 Grizzlies 

Thunder 117-115 Grizzlies

Ah, man, Ja Morant was still trying to act like the Grizz could've won if only.... dude, it has been a long year, spend a coupla weeks in Cabo, then get back to it and get ready for next year, this year is over and it's just as well, Grizz fans. The Thunder are still killing people, making them play in the 1st round was probably just a waste of time.

Rockets 93-104 Warriors 

Rockets 106-109 Warriors

I'm getting old, but in a backwards way? I prefer youth to the way it used to be. I'm ready for the Rockets to make some noise, instead I'm stuck here pretending like the Warriors still have something in the tank....honestly, it makes my head hurt. Draymond, Steph and Jimmy are expending 110% effort just to fend off a bunch of punks that have never done anything in this league and frankly they're still just getting lucky. They think their old timey savvy is gonna carry them and that shit might work on the Rockets but I don't see it working on anyone else. The Rockets haven't yet shown the maturity to finish off their elders (they keep falling for Draymond's head games) and their offense dries up from time to time, but the Rockets were better than the Warriors all season long and will be better than them next season, too. But for now the oldheads are still bullshitting their way through life and, sorry Rockets, it'll be another year before you get invited to the real party. (That said, I like the Rockets to win Game Five and wouldn't be shocked if they won Game Six--the longer this series goes on, the more miles those old legs have to run, the faster they'll crash out when they reach their limit)

Lakers 104-116 Wolves 

Lakers 113-116 Wolves 

The Wolves managed to take the 3-1 lead by reminding everyone that the Lakers are really just a nice team for now (and their "now" probably would've been better with Anthony Davis), but plan on being a for-real team next year. The Wolves have got no time to lose, so they're balling out as best they can. I think the Wolves are better and with a 3-1 lead I think we can pencil them through to the next round, but I said Lakers in 7 for a reason: they're wily vets and they know how to....get by. Hard to imagine the Wolves don't finish them off soon but now that we've reached the edge, feels like its time to start worrying about the Lakers again. Meh, I'll take Wolves in 5.

Nuggets 83-117 Clippers

Nuggets 101-99 Clippers 

I still believe the Clippers are the better team, they have the better offense, the better defense, the better coach and the better depth. But the Nuggets have a great home court and the greatest player in the world, so its still a series when maybe it should already be over. Okay, I'll stick with the same ol' thing: the Clippers are the better team and at their best Harden and Kawhi make a strangely effective 2-headed monster; that said, their 2-heads aren't exactly crunch time heroes and Jokic is still the best in the world. For now, still the most fun left in this series, but I still gotta lean Clippers in 6.

2024-25 NBA Regular Season Awards

MVP

Last year I developed a new algorithm for ranking NBA performances. I ended up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) as MVP and that felt right to me, so I thought I'd run back the method this year, too. Well, not so good. 

My first calculation ended up with Shai winning again this year. Okay, not controversial. But this year the method put Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) 3rd behind James Harden (Clippers). I did not see this coming, it kinda freaked me out as Harden is a player I have barely paid attention to this season (though, to be fair, I didn't watch nearly as much NBA as I usually do). 

So I did a second calculation and now Shai had slipped to 2nd place...behind Anthony Edwards (Wolves)! So in a year when the debate was between Shai (Stefan Edberg-level elegance and awesomness leading his batch of youngsters to easily the best record in the league) or Jokic (dragging his band of sad sacks into the playoffs like Homer Simpson with his Stone of Shame), but even though the Clippers finished strong, I never thought twice about Harden or Edwards for MVP. But what are the algorithms for except to to find the best players? Last year the algorithm told me that Shai, Jokic and Giannis were the three best players and I heartily agreed. This year, the algorithms spit out something I did not expect or understand and it made me question the science (heaven forbid!). 

So I did what all good scientists do: I kept changing the criteria until I got what I wanted:

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

The rest of my top five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics). (Okay, well, Lebron kinda came out of nowhere but he is still a hell of a player) 

On my own I probably would've taken Shai over Jokic, because I think Shai has been exciting, thorough and completely in charge from day one on a team that just murdered people all year long. For the last several years I thought Jokic and Giannis were the two best players in the league, I think it is safe to say that SGA has joined them. I was never so committed to any of the others that the snoots wanted to put with Jokic and Giannis (Embiid, for example, was never better than top 3--if that!--IMHO), but with Shai we have a master PG, just blossoming into his prime, that gets W's in addition to buckets; meanwhile we see the steady erosion of the supporting casts around Jokic and Giannis.  

But the numbers made it clear to me that Jokic has virtually no help whereas SGA has a great roster--arguably the top-to-bottom best in the league. But another stat really dumbfounded me: Jokic led the league with 34 triple-doubles in 70 games, just about half of his games played were triple-doubles, while SGA had zero. Now, okay, SGA has better teammates, there's more passing and scoring going on than just SGA, so it makes sense that he wouldn't get a lot of triple-doubles because he just doesn't need to the way Jokic needs to carry his team; but....damn, man, SGA didn't have one? In 76 games he didn't have one triple-double! On one of the greatest scoring teams of all time and a great defensive team, he didn't have one single game where he hit double digits in three different stats? His teammate Jaylin Williams, had 3 triple-doubles, but SGA had none? Somehow this only seems possible if he were on a team that absolutely did not need their best player to ever go truly above himself in any single game--while Jokic had to do that in almost half of his games. I dunno, man, something about the fact that SGA had fewer triple-doubles this season than Bilal Coulibaly (Wizards) or Jalen Pickett (Nuggets), automatically makes me feel good about putting Jokic ahead of him.  

But let's remember: according to my method of analysis James Harden, Lebron James and Anthony Edwards are clear candidates for 1st Team All-NBA, if not for MVP. Good players, but the numbers put them higher than my own personal eyeballs did, which makes me reconsider the importance of numbers. Oh well. (Science is lumpier than Science itself realizes)  

All-NBA

1st

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)

2nd

Cade Cunningham (Pistons), James Harden (Clippers), Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Alperen Sengun (Rockets)

3rd

Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks), Tyler Herro (Heat), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Devin Booker (Suns), Donovan Mitchell (Cavs)

All-Rookie

1st

Stephon Castle (Spurs), Bub Carrington (Wizards), Alex Sarr (Wizards), Zacharrie Risacher (Hawks), Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)

2nd 

Yves Missi (Pelicans), Isaih Collier (Jazz), Kyshawn George (Wizards), Kyle Filipowski (Jazz), Matas Buzelis (Bulls)

Looks good to me. Castle is nice, a good strong supporting cast member for the Wemby Show. Carrington, Sarr are in the right spot: Bub has game and is fun to watch, Sarr is a nice all-around big man, both in a spot where expectations are low, so they're free to just play. I like Risacher, doesn't look like a super star but he's kinda good at everything, should get better at a lot of stuff, might could be a for-real #2 for a for-real star (is that Trae Young? Could it be, say, Zion?). Wells is a baller, get well soon. Missi is a good rim protecting rebounder, a nice player. Collier, Georgie and Filipowski should have earned more playing time, we'll see what they become. I kinda love Buzelis, that guy'll start next year.   

And a few other rooks I liked: Dalton Knecht (Lakers), Zach Edey (Grizzlies), Ke'lel Ware (Heat), Donovan Clingan (Blazers), and I'm still convinced Reed Sheppard (Rockets) will be good, if he's ever allowed to play, and Ron Holland (Pistons) was one of my favorites to watch all year long. 

That said, for ROY, I'm going off the board:

Rookie of the Year: Jared McCain (Sixers)

ROY for me is a forward-looking award (who is the best looking prospect going forward) not a backward-looking award (who had the BEST rookie season). McCain only played 23 games but in his limited look, he struck me as the highest potential growth player going forward. He was in control of the ball and had major league-level athletic prowess; in short, he has the physical tools to survive and the talent to be really good. I can't/won't make the argument he had the best rookie season, obviously he didn't, but who cares? Which rookie do I want next year? I'd take McCain. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Yeah, this happens every year: I use basic counting metrics for my end of year awards and clearly in DPOY, these metrics are too basic to be useful. Its going to drive the nerds crazy but--and not for the first time--I'll go with Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) for Defensive Player of the Year. 

Next up: Amen Thompson (Rockets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

As a life long baseball lover, I've long known that defensive stats just don't paint the proper picture. Offense is a clear accounting, but defense (re: the counter of offense) is much more elusive to capture, more useful as a team stat rather than an individual, and the great defenders are doing more than the statistics can calculate. But I'm still dubious of more complicated metrics, I know I'm supposed to sit in awe of number nerds but numbers in and of themselves aren't meaningful at all; if you start giving too much narrative necessity to numbers then you're just fooling yourself. 

Okay, so I suck at DPOY.  I had James Harden (Clippers) 4th!

6th Man: Naz Reid (Wolves)

My incredibly unscientific 1st draft left me with: Naz Reid (Wolves) as the strong 1st place. Peyton Pritchard (Celtics), Malik Beasley (Pistons) next, with Spencer Dinwiddie (Mavs) and Keldon Johnson (Spurs) rounding out the top 5. (*) Basically no matter how you slice it, Reid, Pritchard and Beasley were the top three in pretty much every stat, so pick your favorite. I think there are good arguments for all three and no argument that really means more than any other. All three were strong 2nd string contributors to good teams, all three had their role within their squad. So I'll go with Reid, just because nobody else is.

Most Improved

I've never done this one in the past because it seems rather than just picking one, there should be multiple winners based on draft class or even by age. I hadn't thought to even do this (I normally don't), but I thought as I peruse the end of year stats, some candidates might emerge. But I should say: I don't feel like going back to last year's stats so the ones that stand out to me will simply be dudes that surprised me with their performance, whether outsized or idiosyncratic, rather than who actually showed some statistical improvement.  We'll see.

James Harden (Clippers). Yup, he was waaaaaay better than I was expecting because I wasn't expecting much. But they were better than I thought they'd be and looking kinda dangerous going into the post-season and Harden's old timey efficiency is the main reason. A damn good season for Harden.

Tyler Herro (Heat). Basically my algorithm susses out the dudes that played a lot and actually did stuff while they played. And Herro played a lot and did a lot for his team. And though the Heat were frustrating this year (as they usually are), that doesn't hide the fact that Herro was pretty damn good this year. He scored efficiently, made plays for others, played good D and just generally handled himself well out there. I always liked Herro but I think he's become even better than I thought he'd be and I'm kinda curious to see what a full year of that current lineup could look like (they could be hitting an unusual number of "up" years from their roster, we'll see next year).

Jalen Williams (Thunder). Williams was awesome last year, surely a Most Improved candidate in 2024. But he successfully stepped up his game for an entire season and even though we knew he was good last year, to stay at that level for another entire year is fucking impressive. To be the reliable 2nd banana on the best team in the league is frankly even better than what he suggested in the past.

Amen Thompson (Rockets). Defensive monster! I knew he'd be good, but just watching him actually bust out is so much better than our collective imagination. I hate to be that guy: oh my, he is a disaster on offense! Already one of the greatest defenders I've ever seen--he's Gary Payton and Kevin Garnett put together!--and though he's got pretty good skills with the ball, he has no instinct for scoring, for attacking the basket or for maximizing his teammates, no feel for the offensive side of the ball. In the game of chess, he is demolition derby. Still, though, that defense...the kid is a monster.  

Christian Braun (Nuggets). Top 20 in the league in Minutes Played and of the 143 players (that I consider) eligible for awards, Braun was 6th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Now, I'll admit I have no idea what that metric is or how it works, but it does suggest (hopefully) that he was "effective" at scoring when asked. He plays more than I thought he would and he's clearly not a disappointment and, well, that's actually kinda better than I thought he'd be. Obviously playing next to Jokic might make anyone look like a Hall of Famer, but I suspect if you suck at basketball, Jokic will make that known with a quickness, so I believe in Braun.

Some names that I passed over: Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Alperen Sengun (Rockets) busted out last year for me, so I'm not surprised by their success, those dudes are fucking good. Similarly with Cade Cunningham (Pistons), I never lost faith with his past injuries or his crappy teams and coaches, I knew Cade was gonna be good the whole time, not surprised that he's top 15.

Coach of the Year

Coach: Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Next up: Rick Atkinson (Cavs), Mark Daigneault (Thunder), Joe Mazzulo (Celtics)

The Cavs and Celtics were easily the two best teams in the East. The Thunder and Rockets were clearly the two best teams in the West, so those are your top four candidates. The arguments are basically: Mazzulo had to hold last year's excellence in place, Daigneault had to improve on last year's excellence, Atkinson had to whip a good team into a really good team, Udoka had to take a bunch of youngsters and keep them locked in all year. All four have their merits, I just decided Udoka's task was greater than the rest. 

JB Bickerstaff (Pistons) and JJ Reddick (Lakers), I suppose will get some votes, too. But really those top four ought to be everyone's top four. 

Executive of the Year

Obviously the Lakers bringing in Luka Doncic from the Mavs for about half of what he's worth is the best trade anyone has pulled off in eons. But that's a future trade, as for now getting an injured Luka for an all-star level Anthony Davis, does not make the Lakers immediately better. I have no doubt that Luka will be good and the team will figure out how best to serve him but that probably won't result in a deep playoff this season (next season, watch out!). 

My favorite trade of the season was the Spurs getting De'Aaron Fox for a raft of 1st round picks (which aren't really necessary now that they can pair Fox with Wemby for the next several years) and their two worst contracts (Tre Jones and Zach Collins). But, that, too, is a trade for the future, as they put Wemby and Fox out to pasture for the season almost as soon as this trade went down. Again, not so much for this season--but next season, watch out! 

The Warriors bringing in Jimmy Butler revitalized their squad, but they gave up on Dennis Schroder (yeah, I have an irrational soft spot for the guy), Lindy Waters (yeah, a bench warmer, but is that his total worth?), Kyle Anderson (a handy vet to have come playoff time) and Andrew Wiggins (again, I have an irrational soft spot) and, I think, a 1st round pick and swapped 2nd round picks. Yeah, I get that Butler makes them better right now, but the "now" just keeps getting shorter for the Warriors and if this doesn't lead to deep playoff runs over the next 2-3 years then this roster is completely wrecked. I dunno, man, I'm not as big a fan of this deal or of the new-look Warriors as I feel like everybody else is. I think this is a high leverage move that leaves them with no draft capital, a bloated salary cap and super stars that will be long-since maxxed out before their deals mature. We'll see how deep they go this year...do we think this squad will go deeper next year? (Hint: I don't)

The Knicks turned their roster upside down since last year's playoff run to the 2nd round and all the moves seemed good on paper. But in reality, I can't help thinking that they were better off with Randle and DiVincenzo than Towns, they wildly overpaid for Mikael Bridges and Coach Thibs is (and always was!) the wrong coach for this team. In short, I'm just not as into this Knicks team as I feel like I'm supposed to be and I don't see great playoff success awaiting this team. So can I say their GM had a good year?

The Nuggets and Bucks just keep falling down around their central super stars. The Kings are on a treadmill of mediocrity, the Hawks and Bulls don't seem to get better no matter what they do. The Suns were arguably the dumpster fire of the year. The Jazz, Hornets and Wizards have settled into being allergic to success. The Pacers and Magic were both able to be pretty much the same as last year (with pretty much last year's rosters). The Rockets are almost choking to death on all their young talent (will Cam Whitmore or Reed Sheppard ever get to play?). Grizzlies have been a slow motion train wreck for a coupla seasons now. The Nets and Raptors were actually better than they wanted to be (as dubious achievement as there is in all of sports). The Wolves made big moves last summer that had to metabolize.So what front office had the best season? 

I'll go with Executive of the Year: Trent Redden (Clippers)

Since last May, they re-upped Tyronn Lue, a great move, as his feel the in game adjustments is as good as I think I've ever seen, truly in the top handful of coaches in the NBA, good to lock him down.  They low-balled Paul George, forcing him out of town--a great move! They signed Derrick Jones Jr (3yr/$30m), Nicolas Batum (2yr/$9.6m), re-upped James Harden (2yr/$70m), traded Russell Westbrook for Kris Dunn (who became the backbone of the Clippers defense), re-signed Ivica Zubac (3yr/$58.6m), swapped PJ Tucker and Mo Bamba for Patty Mills and Drew Eubanks (addition by subtraction), shipped out Terance Mann and Bones Hyland for Bogdan Bogdanovich and a raft of 2nd round picks, and they picked up Ben Simmons for peanuts to round out the playoff roster. 

Swapping Kevin Porter Jr straight up for Marchon Beauchamp feels like a missed opportunity but hardly a killer. Re-signing Terrence Mann might've been a mistake but they got Bogie and a bunch of 2nd rounders for him instead, so no harm done. Does letting BJ Boston walk away bite them later?

It feels like all of their moves worked this year and they quietly shimmied their way up to 5th in the West behind a resurgence from Kawhi and Harden. Bravo!

(*) Rest of 6th Man top 10: Scottie Pippen Jr (Grizzlies), Aaron Wiggins (Thunder), Nickaell Alexander-Waker (Wolves), Jonas Valanciunis (Wizards/Kings), Royce O'neale (Suns). As you can see the top 3 were way ahead of the rest of the pack.