2023 French Open

I caught almost none of the French this year and that's too bad. Grand Slam tennis is always good and without a clear female fave and no Nadal on the other side meant that this year's French was wide open and worth catching.  Oh well, I saw both Finals, so not a total loss.  

(1) Swiatek 6/5/6 - 2/7/4 (NR) Muchova

Swiatek is a hell of a player but, you know, she doesn't have any signature moves, there's no real transcendence to her game, she's just all-round good at everything. And as for Muchova, she played steady, whereas I was expecting her to be emotional, spotty, up and down, she really wasn't any of that. She was consistent and played hard and smart all the way through and it almost worked for her. Swiatek was the better player but she had moments of doubt and she was the one who had ups and downs. 

I hesitate to say Swiatek didn't play her best, I suspect this mostly good/but occasionally out of sorts is who she is. Muchova played well--really well--but just couldn't match Swiatek's best effort. Swiatek is an interesting champ because I feel like she can hang anywhere with anyone, but she can also fritter away her best chances and probably could be had by even an unranked no-name if she has an extended braindead period. That said, Swiatek is #1 for a reason and I could also see her dominating the women's game for a few more years. 

(3) Djokovic 7/6/7 - 6/3/5 (4) Ruud

Early on, I thought Djokovic looked a little rusty and when Ruud went up a break early in the 1st, I really felt like Ruud would hold it and take the set. But, it didn't happen. Ruud was good but just couldn't maintain his composure, I just kept waiting for Ruud to pull it together but when he let the 1st set get to a tiebreak, I knew it was probably over for him. Then in the 2nd set, felt like Ruud was gonna go full Richie Tannenbaum melt down and he just never got his fight back in him. 3rd set, too, I was wondering if Ruud would pull it together and he didn't. 

As for Djokovic, he was loose and free, playing with house money, nothing to lose, just went out there and played his game, kept the audience from cheering for the underdog and like your roommate's pet python, Djokovic slowly wrapped himself around anyone that might want some of the oxygen he was hoarding. 

Another great W for the GOAT (*), though I really felt like Ruud had a chance--not a big one, but the path to steal the first set was there and he couldn't stay on it. 

(*) Oh yeah, I made my peace with it a while ago, Djokovic is the all-time greatest tennis player of all-time (**). 

(**) Not a typo--he's that fucking great, dude!

2022-23 Champions League Final

Manchester City 1-0 Inter Milan

Very defensive game, not a lot of chances on goal for either team, got really chippy in the 2nd half. I thought the ref lost control in the 2nd half, let both sides get physical and he started making random foul calls instead of clamping down. But this was the right outcome. 

Coming in Man City was the better team, they had the better run and though Inter fought their way to the Final, I thought Man City would win in a tight one and they did. The goal was a bit of brilliance in a long stretch of weirdness in front of the goal, but man for that bullet shot to find its way through the crowd was amazing. 

Nobody dominated, there was no clear MVP and even saying Man City was the better team is pretty minimal. Inter's best chances came in the heavy-chaos time after Man City took the lead and it made for a fun watch but not a lot of goals. 

I kinda still think Real Madrid was (or should've been) the best team but Man City choked them out in the semifinals and that can't be ignored. So Man City was truly the best team throughout and this was the right result. Inter had a good run--and beating AC Milan along the way must've been a dream come true.

Great W for Manchester City, your 2022-23 champs. 

2022-23 NBA Finals (2 games in)

Heat 93-104 Nuggets

Heat 111-108 Nuggets

Weird coupla games. The Nuggets played their two worst games of the playoffs so far. But in Game One they won handily and in Game Two they had a chance to tie it up at the buzzer. 

The Heat definitely figured some things out in Game Two. On offense: just keep swinging the ball around and the Nuggets will eventually either fall asleep or make a dumb foul. Yeah, the Nuggets suck on defense and if you keep moving the ball, they will falter; oddly, I think this works better without Jimmy Butler on the floor, so this is more a strategy for the Kyle Lowry-Duncan Robinson-Cody Zeller unit, but I think it is a good strategy. And on defense: use the 2-1-2 zone to keep Jokic on an island. I was really surprised at how well it worked, it impeded the flow and kept the Nuggets out of their routine. If the Heat can keep that up, the Nuggets offense becomes quite a bit less than the juggernaut it has been. 

The Nuggets, on the other hand, played badly, still won and almost won again. The Nuggets are a finesse team and they haven't had to deal with the toughness that Miami brings. The Wolves, Suns and Lakers don't play that way, so even when the Nuggets were tested, it wasn't that kind of test. Can they respond to what the Heat are doing? Can the Nuggets keep the ball moving on offense and minimize dumb mistakes on defense? I think the answer to both questions is "YES"!

I've been picking against the Heat all along but I've told myself that I was mistaken about their opponents rather than them. The Heat play tough and they hang around and when they sniff weakness, they pounce, they play opportunistically and wait for the other side to cave. It worked in Game Two but let's be honest: if the Nuggets pull their shit together 60 seconds earlier, they probably would've won the game. In two games the Heat have forced the Nuggets to play horribly but outside of a nice 4th quarter run, the Heat haven't really been able to answer. Can the Heat keep the Nuggets faltering? I don't think so.

I think Jokic realizes his chance to win a title, I think Jamal Murray is ready to get hot, I think KCP, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Bruce Brown are ready to step up and do some real goon squad shit....the one I worry about is Michael Porter but its hard to imagine him playing worse then he did in Game Two and I think he can still get buckets. I think Coach Malone sees what needs to be done (the Nuggets need to play tougher on defense!) and the crew will respond. As much as I love Coach Spo and admire Butler, I don't think the Heat can go up another level and I don't think the Nuggets can be as bad as they've bad so far. I think Jokic and Murray will figure it out (the key is to have a massive lead in the 4th quarter!). 

So while everyone else is zigging, I'm gonna zag (and play right into the same mistake I've been making throughout the playoffs so far): I think the Nuggets will pummel the shit out of the Heat over the next three games. Let me repeat: PUMMEL DA SHIT out of the Heat. I said Nuggets in 5 and I haven't changed my mind. I knew the Heat would get a W, they did it earlier than I thought (*), but I still don't think they're the better team or will outscore the Nuggets again in this series. The Bucks, the Knicks and the Celtics were all ready to lose, I don't think that's true of the Nuggets. I think they've been punched in the face for the first time this post-season and I think they're ready to go full spazz attack on the Heat. 

Yeah, I said it: I like the Nuggets big in each of the next three games. 

(*) Reminds me of Bucks-Bulls in the 1st round last year. That series had gentleman's sweep written all over it, just a matter of whether the Bulls would win Game Three (and make it look like a series) or Game Four (when the Bucks take the night off and let the Bulls have one last W for the home folks). Well, the Bulls won Game Two in Milwaukee and for a minute, everyone wondered what was going on. Then the Bucks laid the smack down and reminded us all that they were way better than the Bulls. I feel like that's gonna happen here, too.

2022-23 NBA Finals

Game Seven: Heat 103-84 Celtics

Jaysun Tatum twisted his ankle on basically the first play of the game and never looked right after that. Jaylen Brown hit some shots but was mostly a turnover machine and no one else get buckets at all. The Heat were resolute and did what they needed to do, but honestly this game was pretty much over well before the end of the 1st quarter.

Last year the Celtics were a disaster for the first coupla months of the season, then the extremely loud teachings of Ime Udoka finally sank in and their defense was phenomenal for a good six months. They blasted their way through the playoffs and ran out of gas in the Finals against the Warriors, who were feeling it. 

In the off-season Coach Udoka was let go due to some kind of improper relationship (does anyone actually know anything about that?) and shortly before opening night, Joe Mazzulla was tabbed to be the head coach. The Celtics started the season strong and though there were doubts about Coach Joe and one bad stretch in March, the Celtics finished 2nd in the East, which is about right. Felt like the Bucks were better but no one else was and the course was set for a Bucks-Celtics East final. Even though the Celtics were sloppy at the ends of games all year long, they won enough to expect a deep run. And after the Bucks got knocked out, the Celtics became the clear favorite even though they dangerously fucked around with the Hawks (woefully outmanned) and the Sixers (Embiid but not much else). Then they fell down 3-0 to the Heat. Showed real grit in Game Four, had a bust out performance in Game Five, got lucky as hell in Game Six (though really were the better team for most of the game) and a historic comeback was well underway. But....didn't happen. The Celtics didn't show, Coach Joe had nothing and the Celtic fans lost interest quick. 

Which brings us to the Finals....

Let's recap the Nuggets' path. They dropped 1 game to the Wolves--a road game they weren't even trying to win and still took to overtime. They dropped 2 games to the Suns--both on the road and both sporting monster performances from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. And they swept the Lakers--though to be fair, all 4 games were close and the Lakers had an amazing run of their own to get there. 

As for the Heat, they caught the Bucks not ready to play--the Bucks to me looked like they just expected to win regardless of their effort or skill. They quickly wore down the Knicks--a nice team on the rise but the 2nd round was as far as they were ever going to go. They caught the neurotic Celtics unable to consistently find a game plan. 

Do you see my point here? The Heat advanced because they were up against weak teams that weren't ready to win. That description does not fit the Nuggets. Yes, I picked against the Heat 3 straight times and I was wrong every time--but I was wrong about their opponents, not about the Heat. Each time I expected the other team to do more than than they were capable of doing and the Heat punished them (and me). Yeah, that ain't happening this time. Maybe I'm crazy for picking against the Heat again, but the Nuggets are better than all the teams in the East and they're balling like crazy. 

The Heat are shooting the ball out of their minds--can they improve? I don't see how. It'd be amazing if they continued what they were doing, but I don't see them getting better. Their chances of outscoring the Nuggets (especially in Denver) is very small. 

The Heat really only have one chance: if their defense can figure out how to bottle up Jokic, then they might have a chance. Of course, if Jokic is bottled, the Nuggets will still have other scorers and playmakers that can step up. And overplaying on defense will basically remove Bam Adebayo from the offense and/or run down Max Strus, so is that really even a good thing? The Nuggets don't stay cold for very long, so I just don't see anything the Heat can do to win games. 

I might've given the Celtics a puncher's chance in Game One at home, but I give no such chance to the Heat on the road. In fact, I give them no chance in Game Two either. The Heat can perhaps steal a game back home, but after 4 games I expect the Nuggets to be up 3-1 heading back to Denver for Game Five, which I do not expect the Heat to win.

I picked the Celtics over the Heat but I was lukewarm on that pick before the series and gave up on it even after the Celtics won 3 straight to get to Game Seven. The Heat have been great all post-season long, Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin have both been great, Bam Adebayo and Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson have been very good, Kyle Lowry has had effective moments, even Heywood Highsmith had some nice run. They'll be getting Tyler Herro back, but outside of a potential burst in Games Three and/or Four, I don't see how he changes much. 

I haven't said much about the Nuggets because I don't have to. They've been the best team in the league pretty much all season long, Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA right now, Jamal Murray is ballin', Micheal Porter is playing the best ball of his life, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are the perfect complementary vets and Bruce Brown is arguably the best free agent signing of last summer. Coach Malone has long been under appreciated and he is about to get his due and Denver itself is arguably the single greatest home court advantage in all of American sports. The Heat have been great but the run ends here, all the sad sappy suckers are gone from the schedule. Nuggets in 5.