2018-18 Pointless NBA Trade (Obligatory Anthony Davis Edition)

First off: the Pelicans should not trade Anthony Davis before the deadline, they would be better served by waiting til the summer when the draft order is known and the full range of possible teams/packages are on the table (the Celtics, for example, possibly the Raptors and Blazers, too). That said, only a handful of teams are really capable of being a part of the Anthony Davis sweepstakes anyway (and those squads that would think of taking a flyer on him now and flipping Davis in the summer are few and far between and probably not worth considering). But if the Pelicans are going to trade him now, I would suggest forcing Solomon Hill (the Pelicans' worst contract) to the 'winner' and then they should go ahead and move Holiday and Mirotic (the Pelicans' 1st and 3rd largest contracts), as well. Go ahead and remake the whole team from top to bottom because if you're gonna lose Davis, then you may as well clean house and get rid of everyone (with the exception of Julius Randle, still very cheap for his production (*)).

So with all that in mind, here's two trades:

Nuggets get Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill; Pelicans get Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray, Micheal Porter

and

Clippers get Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic; Pelicans get Danilo Gallinari, Avery Bradley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Worth noting that the Nuggets have a built in home court advantage (altitude) that should suit Davis's desire to play for a winner, a good coach (Malone) who has a knack for mixing and matching lineups, a legit super fucking badass (Jokic) to pair up with and a decent collection of weird talent, even after the trade. The Nuggets would lose their main playmaker in Murray, but they'd still have Harris, Barton and Craig for wing-scoring. They would surely immediately stretch Hill, saving them a few bucks to find a PG in the off-season (Eric Bledsoe would be more Murray-like but Ricky Rubio's passing would fit nicely with that crew). They'd also be giving up Paul Millsap (who they would likely cut in the off-season anyway) and Michael Porter (still could turn out to be the steal of the 2018 draft). The team could still have the same problems he had in New Orleans, but putting AD and Jokic together is tantalizing--though the Nuggets would really only have about 3 months to make it work, that 2020 trade deadline would be looming from day one.

The Clippers would get a vet PG to build around and an expiring wing scorer to replace Gallinari. They would give up Avery Bradley and their hot young PG (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)--is that a direction they want to go in? They'd be paying a lot more for an aging PG, but in the summer they'd have a ton of money to lure in vets to go with him (Kawhi?) and/or money to re-up Tobias Harris (and maybe Mirotic). The Clippers would get older but not significantly more expensive and would still leave them pretty limber for making moves in the off-season.

Notice in these deals I left out draft picks, which is presumably what the Pelicans are gonna want for Davis but by adding Gilgeous-Alexander, Murray and Porter they'd be getting 1st rounders with plenty of upside and since the Nuggets 2019 pick is already spoken for, I'd suggest they're better than the picks they'd be getting back anyway. The Pelicans would have one more year of Gallinari (an effective Mirotic-like wing scorer) and Bradley (solid defender, if suspect offensive talent) and a team option on Paul Millsap (at $30m, I would expect them to let him go). One kooky quirk in these deals: the Pelicans would end up with the three youngest players and the three oldest players, so some youth to root for and some vets to hold the post-Davis architecture together.

Look, the Pelicans are so built around Anthony Davis that nothing will look as good next year. When they move him (and they're gonna, sooner or later), they may as well remodel the whole house. Again, I'd keep Julius Randle (player option for next year, I'd ask him nicely to stick around) which would give them a lineup of PG Gilgeous-Alexander, SG Murray, SF Randle, PF Gallinari, C Okafor with Payton, Clark, Frazier, Moore, Miller, Porter, and Diallo off the bench. Granted, that team is young, they would struggle for a year or two, but a year of tanking is all part of the process (trust it, it works!). Speaking of: why not bring in Sam Hinkie to lead to the rebuild? Dell Demps should've been run out years ago, letting him trade Davis and Holiday on his way out is like letting the SP take credit for an intentional walk before calling to the bullpen. And since Coach Gentry likely wouldn't want to hang around either, I'd suggest going for either Jeff Hornacek or Fred Hoiberg to guide the new look Pels.

Yeah, weird. This absolutely won't happen because small market owners are terrified of teardowns like this. But losing Anthony Davis is going to be so terrifying that they may as well tear off all the band-aids at once. Let it bleed, New Orleans. Find your young core, build through the draft, love the basketball and trust the process.


(*) I'd keep Jahlil Okafor, too. He's very cheap and with crazy changes afoot, this is probably his last best chance to come alive. At his price point and with the low post-AD expectations, may as well give him one last chance to wow.

2019 MLB Hall of Fame Voting

Newly enshrined:
Mariano Rivera (first unanimous selection), Edgar Martinez, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina
Rivera was the shit, very deserving of the first unanimous vote, and the amazing thing was he only had one pitch but no one could hit it, one of the best I ever saw.
I always loved Edgar Martinez, a good solid hitter is a good thing, maybe an edge of the Hall kinda guy but I would've voted for him.
Halladay's decline was immediate and stunning but before that, the dude was untouchable for a decade, no-hitter in the playoffs, played on a lot of good teams, arguably the best in the league during his time, an easy 1st ballot Hall of Famer.
Glad to see Mussina get in, thought he got low-balled in his first five years on the ballot, played his entire career in the hardest division in baseball, played on a lot of good teams, very deserving.


Not this year:
Curt Shilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Larry Walker, Omar Vizquel, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, Todd Helton, Gary Sheffield, Andy Pettite, Sammy Sosa, Andruw Jones 
(Ought To Be In) Dude, Bonds was the best player I ever saw and Clemens was probably the best pitcher I ever saw, the fact that they're not in the Hall is an abrogation of duty by the voters--and a goddamn waste of time! Shilling, too, was one of the best I ever saw and the fact that the writers are dissing him because he's a right-wing goofball is an injustice. Sammy Sosa always annoyed me but his numbers are staggering and clearly Hall of Fame worthy. Manny Ramirez was one of the most gloriously underrated players I ever saw in his Indian days, then he went to Boston and though he found glory there, they turned him into the idiot everyone remembers; too bad, he was probably the best pure hitter I ever saw and never got the acclaim he deserved, totally a Hall of Famer. I don't understand why Sheffield hasn't gotten in yet, he was a pivotal player on a lot of good teams and was one of the best in the league for a long long time, deserving, ought to be in already.
Argh! Baseball writers and their phony baloney moralism is foolish and embarrassing--just do your jobs, you dumbass writers!

(Not in, I think) Walker was a hell of hitter, tenacious baller, an old timey baseball guy, next year will be his last on the ballot, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it.
Vizquel was one of the greatest defensive middle infielders I ever saw, played on a lot of good teams, well-liked guy but probably not a Hall of Famer (I can see the Vet Committee tapping him).
Jeff Kent? Why has Jeff Kent lasted this long on the ballot? I lived in the Bay Area during his best years and I'm here to let you know Benito Santiago was more important to those teams than Kent, not even close to a Hall of Famer.
Rolen was a good player for a long time but I just don't think of him with Mike Schmidt or Brooks Robinson or George Brett, he wasn't classic, he was just a good player for a long time. (I can see the Vet Committee putting him in down the line)
Wagner was a good closer but I wouldn't put him ahead of Eckersly, Rivera, Lee Smith, Hoffman, Sutter (or even Goose Gossage, for that matter). The Hall has finally gotten around to adding relievers but I think Wagner is just short of that elite crew.
Helton was a hell of a hitter for a long long time, but he's got that Coors Field inflation, that'll probably keep him out.
Pettite was a good pitcher for a long time, lot of good teams, key to the Yankee revitalization in the 1990s, fun with the Astros, too, seems like he should be getting more--oh yeah, he failed a drug test, didn't he? Tsk, tsk, the baseball writers have a high horse a-callin' them.
Jones had one of the most exciting rookie seasons I can recall and he had some big number years, but he kinda had just an ordinary career, good player but he doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer to me.


10th and final ballot:
Fred McGriff
I always liked the Crime Dog (still one of Berman's best monikers), saw him hit a homer at Fenway when he was a Blue Jay, had good years and bad years but a long career and played on a lot of good teams. He's probably an edge candidate but I would've voted for him if I had a vote (though I reckon the veterans committee will put him in pretty soon).


One and done:
Michael Young, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, Roy Oswalt, Placido Polanco, Freddy Garcia, Ted Lilly, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, Darren Oliver, Rick Ankiel, Vernon Wells, Jon Garland, Jason Bay, Derek Lowe, Juan Pierre
Yeah, none of these guys are Hall of Famers, but I'm a little surprised some of these guys didn't even last to the 2nd ballot: Berkman and Tejada had some monster years (better than Jeff Kent, why does that guy keep hanging around?) and Oswalt was elite for more than a few years. Ankiel is one of the all time great what-if's--dude, that guy was soooo good...until he just wasn't all of the sudden. And as an Indians fan I can assure you that the Hafner-Sizemore duo was a coupla bad injuries away from being really great (led to them letting go of Sabathia and Cliff Lee, too....*sigh*). Young was a good player and very well-liked (he's coaching now, right?) and he was one of the highest vote-getters of his class, but not a Hall of Famer. Youkilis and Lowe were on legendary Red Sox teams, figured that would give them a little more of a bump. (The problem is the sclerotic idiots that keep leaving Clemens, Bonds, Sosa and Ramirez on this list to suck up votes instead of just putting them in the Hall--that limited the opportunities for this class)


Veterans Committee Inductees:
Harold Baines, Lee Smith
I'm cool with both of these guys. I always dug Baines, a good reliable hitter for a long long time and by all accounts a real nice guy (hey, that definitely matters--ask Curt Shilling!), so even though the Writers didn't put him in, I'm not surprised the vets extended him the honor.
Smith was the best for a while--not a long while--but he was at the vanguard of the transition of the closer into the modern game and I think is worthy of being remembered.


My ten votes:
Bonds, Clemens, Rivera, Halladay, Shilling, Ramirez, Mussina, Sosa, Martinez, McGriff (sorry, Sheff,  you're my #11)

2018-19 NBA Bric-a-brac (Week 14)

(Gotten quite lazy here but football is over, time to get back to the court; here's a catch up)

Firings
Bulls fire Fred Hoiberg; replaced by Jim Boylen
His chances of success were minimal but acting like he was the problem is dangerously deluded for the Bulls front office (which also got an overhaul). Hoiberg will likely get another chance, perhaps as soon as this off-season. Boylen...seems like a nice guy.

Wolves fire Coach Tom Thibodeau; replaced by Ryan Saunders
Thibs is officially out of the running for Coach of the Year. I was skeptical of Thibs when he was hired but I wanted to be optimistic. Think my gut instinct was the right one. He never got control of the locker room and apparently not the board room, either (and his old pal Jimmy Butler did him no favors). This was never the right fit for Thibs but he'll turn up somewhere. Saunders (son of Flip) is a well-liked member of the coaching staff, if he gets the Wolves to the post-season, I'd expect him to be hired full time.


Waivings (since Nov 15)
Andrew Harrison (Grizzlies), Ben Moore (Pacers), John Holland (Cavs), Chasson Randle (Wizards), Jodie Meeks (Bucks), Isaiah Canaan (Suns), Walt Lemon (Celtics), Andrew Harrison (again!) (Cavs), Billy Preston (Cavs), Danuel House (Rockets), Brandon Goodwin (Nuggets), Ron Baker (Knicks), Devaughn Akoon-Purcell (Nuggets), Zhou Qi (Rockets), Austin Rivers (Suns), Okaro White (Wizards), Tyler Ulis (Bulls), Tyler Davis (Thunder), DJ Stephens (Grizzlies), Nick Young (Nuggets), Alan Williams (Nets), Cameron Payne (Bulls), Eric Moreland (Suns), James Nunnaly (Wolves), Demetrius Jackson (Sixers), MarShon Brooks (Bulls), Lorenzo Brown (Raptors), Ron Baker (again!) (Wizards), Michael Carter-Williams (Bulls), Andrew Harrison (yet again!) (Pelicans), Jaylen Morris (Bucks), Jalen Jones (Cavs), Jarnell Stokes (Grizzlies), Keenan Evans (Pistons), Zach Lofton (Pistons), Kenneth Faried (Nets), James Nunnally (Rockets)


Buy-outs (since Nov 15)
Suns buy out Tyson Chandler
Why? Chandler was the Suns' best trade asset and yet they give him away for nothing? What is the point of that?


Signings (since Nov 15)
Tyson Chandler (Lakers) 1yr/$2.1m
The Lakers needed an upgrade down low and

Okaro White (Wizards) 1yr/$2.1m
He's already been waived, so pretty good quick buck for White.

Danuel House (Rockets) 1yr/$2.1m
Later waived and re-signed to a 2-way contract.

Brandon Goodwin (Nuggets)
Already waived.

Joakim Noah (Pelicans) 1yr/$1.7m
I wrote last year that the Pelicans should sign/trade Cousins to the Knicks for Noah, but this is much cheaper. So far there is little sign than Noah has anything left in the tank but it was worth a try for the Pelicans.

Gary Clark (Rockets) 3yrs/$3.7m
I don't understand this at all but the Rockets are kinda the kings of weird roster maneuvers, so there's probably some reason for this.

Nick Young (Nuggets)
Took a flier, had some fun times but he's already been waived. It wasn't meant to be. (Hornets could use Young, no?)

Eric Moreland (Suns) 1yr/$1.1m
Think he's already been waived but I can find no evidence that he was ever paid by the Suns, so...

Kenneth Faried (Rockets) 1yr/?
Faried hasn't done much since he blew up with the Nuggets (and Team USA) a few years back. Can he give the Rockets some good rebounding down low? Ehhh, maybe.


Options/Extensions (since Nov 15)
(Exercised) Celtics pick up Jayson Tatum, Guershon Yabusele, Jaylen Brown; Raptors pick up Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby; Knicks sign Alonzo Trier to 2-year extension; Nets sign Spencer Dinwiddie to 3-year extension; Thunder re-up Coach Donovan for another year
These all are no-brainers (well, except for Yabusele, but worth a bet, I reckon). Donovan seems pretty well in control of that squad, seems like a good idea to extend him.

(Declined) Sixers declined Furkan Korkmaz; Nuggets declined Tyler Lydon; Raptors declined Malachi Richardson; Rockets declined Marquisse Chriss; Wolves declined Justin Patton
I kinda like Korkmaz but the Sixers are gonna need every penny to pay Jimmy Butler and another top flight free agent in the off-season, so there was problem never room for him on next year's roster. Lydon and Richardson over performed in the NCAA tournament and got a handful of NBA paychecks they probably never really deserved. Chriss was overrated coming out of college, could still be intriguing for a thin roster (Pelicans need every athletic big man they can get, right? And, of course, the Knicks love derided cast-offs).


2-way Contracts (since Nov 15)
Andrew Harrison (Cavs), Ben Moore (Spurs), Jalen Jones (Cavs), Jaron Blossongame (Cavs), Danuel House (Rockets), Jawun Evans (Suns), Brandon Goodwin (Nuggets), Brandon Sampson (Bulls), Donte Graham (Thunder), Jarnell Stokes (Grizzlies), RJ Hunter (Celtics), Alan Williams (Nets), Kadeem Allen (Knicks), Deng Adel (Cavs), Julian Washburn (Grizzlies), Kalin Lucas (Pistons), Bonzie Colson (Bucks)


10-Day Contracts (since Nov 15)
Cameron Payne (Cavs), Quincy Acy (Suns), Haywood Highsmith (Sixers), Corey Brewer (Sixers), Isiah Whitehead (Pistons), Quincy Acy (Suns), Stephan Hicks (Pacers),Gary Payton II (Wizards)
I actually still kinda like Payne, Acy and Whitehead and each will be in a place where they might even get a chance to play. Brewer is an interesting veteran pickup for the Sixers, though I'm not sure he will see much of the floor. Payton has yet to catch on in the league, maybe this will give him good exposure. I don't Hicks. And I don't know Haywood Highsmith (but he sounds like a guy that would've played for the Globetrotters back in the 1970s).


Trades (since Nov 15)
Sixers gets Jimmy Butler, Justin Patton; Wolves get Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless, 2022 2nd rd pick
This is the big swing the Sixers have been waiting on. Personally I was kinda iffy on this move: Butler has been a troubling personality over the last few years, not sure he's the best mix with Simmons on or off the court and I'm a big fan of Saric especially and Covington, too. But this is the big move they had to make, adding another scorer that can play defense is what has the chance to elevate this team and giving up two good young prospects is the price to pay. I was a bit skeptical but I understand. And getting Patton, too, is a potential bonus prospect in return (and gives perfect symmetry to the original deal that sent Butler to the Wolves from the Bulls).

The Wolves get rid of a big star who...well...never did much for them and get back two promising team players in Covington and Saric. Bayless is a decent vet with some action left in him, he'll get some time off that Wolves bench. And they got a 2nd rd pick from the Sixers? Dang, that's something to tell the grandkids about! Big thumbs up on the deal for the Wolves, all upside for them. 


Jazz get Kyle Korver; Cavs get Alec Burks, 2020 Jazz 2nd rd pick, 2021 Jazz 2nd rd pick
Jazz needed a wing scorer and Korver is reliable and reasonably priced (though wouldn't be surprised to see him traded again in the off-season), but, man, I never understood why/how Burks fell so far of their rotation. Since Burks wasn't playing and Korver will, I guess a coupla 2nd rd picks is a good deal for the Jazz.

The Cavs just need to shorten up their commitments, paying more for Burks now is better than paying more for Korver later. And the Cavs rotation will need all the scoring it can get, so I expect Burks to get plenty of playing time. A coupla 2nd rd picks for the extra cash is a nice bonus for them.


Bucks get George Hill, Jason Smith, 2020 Wizards 2nd rd pick (*), 2021 Cavs 2nd rd pick, cash; Cavs get Matthew Dellevadova, John Henson, 2019 Bucks 1st rd pick (highly protected), 2021 Bucks 2d rd pick, 2022 Wizards 2nd rd pick, cash; Wizards get Sam Dekker
Bucks wanted to upgrade their bench and while I kinda like Hill, personally I prefer Henson to Smith and Dellevadova has some spark to him, so I'm not sure this was a step up for the Bucks though Hill has a better chance of bringing more impact off the bench than Henson or Dellevadova--but not necessarily Dekker, so why include him rather than develop him?

The Cavs needed to get cheaper and while that didn't really happen, they did thicken the bench without increasing cost and picked up a 1st rd pick to boot. I doubt this makes the team better but it does give them a little more depth and more options going forward.

The Wizards swapped out an expensive player (Smith) they didn't need for an underappreciated sprak plug off the bench (Dekker). All it cost them was a 2nd rd pick--long after the current GM will be fired--so easy deal for the Wizards.


Wizards get Trevor Ariza; Suns get Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers
Why? What does the deal do for either team? The Suns signed Ariza solely for the purpose of being trade bait but they let him go for a guy they cut immediately (Rivers) and a youngster who may or may not fit their needs next season (Oubre)--why give away your trade bait? And what is Ariza gonna do for the Wizards? He's a fine veteran who can do a little bit of everything but the Wizards are gonna struggle to get to the top 8 in the East, why give away Oubre one of their best recent draft picks? (**)


Bulls get Wayne Selden, MarShon Brooks, a 2019 2nd rd pick, a 2020 2nd rd pick; Grizzlies get Justin Holiday
I don't get to watch the Grizzlies (dang you, blackout restrictions!), so I'm not sure how good a fit this is but my gut tells me the Grizzlies always need back up ball handlers who can score a little. Bulls quickly waived MarShon (don't call me 'Dillon') Brooks but I can see Selden getting some playing time in that rotation and two 2nd round flyers for a guy the Bulls didn't prize anyway isn't bad.

Bulls get Michael Carter-Williams and cash; Rockets get Bulls' 2020 2nd rd pick (top 55 protected)
Yawn. Bulls waived MCW immediately and the pick is so protected as to likely not exist.



(*) Actually this is a modification of a previously received pick: it is now unprotected.
(**) Yeah, this deal makes no sense but compared to the clusterfuck that preceded it, this move seems strangely normal. There was supposed to be a 3-team trade involving the Grizzlies, but no one agreed on whether it was MarShon or Dillon Brooks that was to be included. Deal fell apart shortly after hitting the media, then this deal magically appeared in its place. No one came out looking good on this one.

2018-19 NFL (Conference Championships)

Last week

Colts 13-30 Chiefs
I was surprised how ineffective the Colts offense was--or perhaps I was surprised how good the Chiefs D-line was. The game was dangerously close to over near halftime when the Colts finally got on the board with a blocked punt returned for a TD (nice recovery!), felt like maybe we'd get a game. But this just seemed to anger the Chiefs, who charged right down the field and went up 24-7.The Colts finally got some offense, went down the field, Luck looked good in the 2-minute offense...then Vinatieri missed a 23 yard FG (for the first time in his career) and, yeah, that was it. This felt like a statement game for Andy Reid: he's been a coach's coach for decades but now he's finally got the badass QB to make the dream a reality. The Colts are well set up for next year, they overachieved this season, tough finish but a good ride.

Cowboys 22-30 Rams
This was either going to be a Rams blowout or a Cowboys defensive exhibition. Kinda started off like the latter: first two Rams drives yielded FGs, the first Cowboy drive yielded a whipsmart Dak-to-Amari TD, road dog up 7-6 early, felt like something interesting was afoot. Nah, it turned back to the Rams blowout version by halftime. The Rams' running game was on point--a new look or just got lucky with a backup plan? Up to the Saints to find out now. The Cowboys had a good season, much better than I thought they'd be, looking good for next year...right? (Eagles on the way up, Giants can't be as bad next year, and this year's success may have doomed the Cowboys to give big raises to dudes that just got lucky this year...so...yeah, we'll see)

Chargers 28-41 Patriots
I bought into the Charger offense, thought they'd find success in Foxboro but, no, it was the Pats offense that came out smoking: 4 TD's on their first four drives and this was over by halftime. Even though the Pats didn't do much in the 2nd half, the Chargers had little chance of pulling this out. The score makes it feel like the Chargers had a shot but they didn't. Feels like the Chargers are on the way up (but they share that division with the Chiefs, so wild card next year?).

Eagles 14-20 Saints
The Eagles came out quick, up 14-0 quick...and then...nothing. The Saints started slow but once they got going, their offense was good enough and the D was solid up the middle. Eagles didn't exactly kill it this year but they re-rode the Foles wave into the playoffs and generally look pretty good all around (outside of the QB controversy that will dog them in the off-season) and I expect them to be back in the post-season next year.


Next week

Patriots @ Chiefs (-3) (o/u 58)
When the Chiefs get rolling they're as good an offense as I've seen in a while, but even though Mahomes grew up in the industry, this is his 1st conference final and as admired as Andy Reid is, his success rate in these games is not great. On the other side is Brady and Belichick, in their 8th straight final four (that's getting into John Woodden territory). If the Chiefs play their best they'll win; but if they falter the Pats will be there to pounce. Now generally when the Pats falter it is against a superior pass rush (those Broncos and NYG teams that got to Brady, for example), which is not something the Chiefs possess. That said, last year the Eagles were able to run up the score and win in the Super Bowl, so it can be done. But the Eagles had Foles magic, while the Chiefs have a Rookie (-ish) QB and a notorious choker at Coach. This is a tough one but I kinda felt like the thumping the Chiefs laid on the Colts was a sign of things to come, Mahomes-Reid are set to become the new Belichick-Brady. (Also Chiefs over Pats was my pre-season pick, might as well stick with it) I'll say Chiefs 41-35 (Chiefs and the over)

Rams @ Saints (-3.5) (o/u 57)
The Saints (like the Chiefs on the other side) are the best team when they play their best game, especially at home. They've been playing well but they have tentative moments and the D is solid but maybe not strong enough to hold up against a high powered offense (like, say, the other 3 offenses left in this playoff). The Rams lit it up early in the season then ran out of gas. They have a lack of depth but they've got good talent on both offense and defense, good special teams and a badass coaching staff. So can the Rams go into New Orleans and get it done? Yes, they can. But though the Saints are tentative at times, they also have a tendency to steal W's late, they come back because the 2-minute offense removes all time to think. I think the Saints will struggle early (don't be surprised if the Rams are up at halftime) but pull it out in the 4th quarter. I'll go Saints 35-28 (Saints and the over)

2018-19 NFL Playoffs (2nd round)

Last week

Colts 21-7 Texans
The Colts charged through the 1st quarter, scoring on their first three drives and forcing a 3-and-out and an INT on the Texan's first two possessions. That's really about all that happened, though. The Colts offense kinda turtled after that, didn't really try to exert any pressure on the Texan D and the Texan offense just never got started, so even though they moved the ball fairly well in the 2nd half, it didn't really matter. The Colts came out strong, left the Texans dazed and confused for the rest of the match. I thought the criticism of DeShaun Watson was unfounded: I thought he made plays, it was his receivers that dropped balls and didn't get open, to which I credit the surprisingly effective Colts D. Easy W for the Colts, another playoff disappointment for the Texans.

Seahawks 22-24 Cowboys
I just kept waiting for Russell Wilson to shake loose and do Russell Wilson stuff but it never really happened. The Seahawks seems so intent on running the ball, running the ball, running the ball, that they never gave their best weapon a chance to open up and win the game for them. Weird. The Cowboys were fine, they grinded their way to an advantage and held on. I really thought the Seahawks could've won this game but they didn't. Cowboys are balanced and very very not bad all over the field, they're not great but they're good enough to work over teams that don't bring their A-game.

Chargers 23-17 Ravens
The Ravens just didn't have any offense at all. I like Lamar Jackson, he's an intriguing talent and he provided a spark to this Ravens squad but, man, he did not have the magic in his opening playoff game. The Chargers didn't put up much of a fight, they played for FG's instead of TD's, got an FG and a punt blocked and didn't seems that aggressive on defense. But they didn't need to because the Ravens just couldn't score or move the ball with any real power. The Chargers didn't play their best but they didn't have to.

Eagles 16-15 Bears
What a tough L for the Bears. I knew this game would be low scoring, both teams feature excellent pass rushes and offenses that kinda scuffle. I knew going in the Eagles would have trouble scoring and instantly rushed to the Bears to win. But as soon as the game started it dawned on me, 'Wait...how do the Bears score...?' Yeah, I kinda forgot that part of it, that the Bears would be every bit as challenged as the Eagles. The Bears had their chance, double doink off the upright and crossbar (I thought it went in off the crossbar at first) and a new Chicago legacy of frustration is born. The Eagles still got some magic in 'em.


This week

Colts @ Chiefs (-5.5) (o/u 56)
Two things to remember: that Chiefs offense is amazing and that Chiefs defense is terrible. So will the amazing offense out last the terrible D? I think it will. The Colts have beaten expectations all year long and overcame a truly awful start to get into the post-season. Andrew Luck is playing well as is his O-line and the defense stifled DeShaun Watson last week, so they deserve to be here (and are looking very dangerous for next season). But the Chiefs are too good to be held down and I think the potentially crazy weather is going to throw a wrench into the dome-safe Colts' plans. Don't be surprised, though, if the Colts are the better team that just can't get it done down the stretch. I'll take the Chiefs to seal it late, 31-27 (Colts and the over).

Cowboys @ Rams (-7) (o/u 49)
The first half of the season the Rams were the best team in the league; for the second half, they were better than average but not better than the cream of the crop. For the first half of the season the Cowboys were pretty bad but got hot in the second half and are playing as well as anyone in the NFC. Clear case: if the Rams find their form, they'll pummel the Cowboys because they're better in every way; but if the Rams struggle, the Cowboys will hang around and give them a game. I'm gonna split the difference and say the Rams have moments of brilliance in an otherwise disappointing game, but they still end up with enough to move on. I'll take the Rams in a clumsy, hard-fought 24-20 victory (Cowboys and the under).

Chargers @ Pats (-4) (o/u 47)
The Pats didn't look as good as usual this year: Gronk is probably done, Brady looks a little Eli-ish out there at times, the WR's are dropping passes. But the defense is underappreciated and they've still got enough veteran smarts to get a playoff game in Foxboro. The Chargers are the vagabond team playing well enough on offense and better-than-expected on defense. The weather will not be in the Chargers' favor but I don't think the weather looks to work for the Pats either. Rather than crazy pass happy shootout a Brady-Rivers game would suggest, I think this'll be a sludgey, slow, ground control game where field position makes all the difference. And I think the Chargers make more plays than the Pats. I'll take the Chargers 17-14 (Chargers and the under)

Eagles @ Saints (-8) (o/u 51)
The Saints have the QB and the defense to be the best in the league, their home field advantage is immense and their ability to steal games late means they've never out of it--even when they're not playing well. The Eagles are the improbable defending champs who are improbably looking to do the improbable all over again. I think the Eagles caught the Bears not ready for prime time, but I don't think they'll find the Saints in the same mood. But the Saints can make mistakes and the Eagles got nothing to lose, so I think this will be an exciting game that goes right to the end. I'll take the Saints 31-27 (Eagles and the over).

2018-19 NCAA Football

(2) Clemson 44-16 (1) Alabama

Okay, well that answers a few questions I've had all season long: Since Alabama has so effortlessly crushed their opponents this season, what will happen if/when they need to exert effort (they'll lose); since Clemson has so effortlessly crushed their opponents this season, are they actually any good (oh yeah, they're good). Man, anything Clemson wanted to do, they did--right down to the expertly crafted long drive to kill the clock at the end of the game. Breath-taking is an apt phrase, I am breath-took-en. Alabama didn't even play bad in the 1st half: Tua threw two bad interceptions, but he bounced back pretty well and still moved the ball. But Clemson's offense just blew through Alabama in a way I haven't seen in years. That forced Saban to go for TD's instead of FG's and it just destroyed the Tide machine: built for dominance, not clever creativity. A fake FG? Nick Saban went for a fake fg?!? (*) Weird: less then 5 minutes into this game, Clemson was up 14-7 and they'd already punted once. 

What was this game like? I'm gonna reach back to the 2014 World Cup: Spain rolls in as the defending Champs and the 2-time Euro champ (meaning they've just won the toughest competition in the world 3 straight times), while the Netherlands roll in with their usual bunch of talented head-cases, who all seem to hate each other. Feels like Spain is gonna get a good opening result at the next Cup...Netherlands win 5-1. Game was never close, Dutch up at the half and straight pummeled Spain for the final 45 minutes. I bring this up because that was the last time I remember a balls-out, undisputed cock of the walk just getting blasted like a Rocky villain.

Or how about this one: 2005 French Open semifinals. Federer is on his way to his peak, undisputed #1, crushed at multiple Wimbledon, Australia and US Opens, just needs the French (back when Gaston Gaudio was the man at Roland Garros) to complete the slam, gets to the semis against some unranked schlub named Nadal...Federer goes down in 4 sets to the man that then goes on to be the best in the history of the French Open. Federer got handled in a way that no one had seen him get handled in a long long time. And its not that Federer played bad, quite the opposite, just turns out that Nadal was one of the best ever though no one knew that yet. 

So, is it over for Alabama? Oh, fuck no! What??? I fully expect Alabama to finish in the top 4 for at least five of the next ten years (5? Dude, that's a low ball). I expected that before this game, still expect that after this game. I'll say the same for Clemson, I fully expect Dabo to dig in a build a mighty castle there. So they're both here to stay.

I'll go ahead and guarantee that they'll meet next year in the Playoff. And that game will likely answer all my questions about next season: can Alabama bounce back? Can Clemson keep it going? Will (Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State) be good enough to crack the top 2?

Alabama should rule the SEC West for the foreseeable future. Auburn will have a good year every once in a while, LSU and A&M, too, but I got Alabama winning 4 of the next 5 SEC titles, don't you? In the East, I can see Florida jumping Georgia next year, but I expect them to finish in the top 2.

Clemson will win the ACC. (I don't even care who finishes 2nd)

I think Oklahoma is still gonna be good (they'll re-load) and Texas looks to be moving in the right direction. The rest of the Big 12 is probably playing for 3rd place.

I think Ohio State keeps going without Urban Meyer. Felt like he was more of a distraction than a plus last year, seems like his deal with Ohio State will keep him out of coaching and thus possibly able to come back to Columbus if need be, so I think moving on will be kinda painless. I expect the Buckeyes to be better next year and crush the Big 10. (I'm curious to keep an eye on Nebraska, could be a waking giant)

Notre Dame will probably be similar next year playing a similar schedule, seems very possible to me they go undefeated again and get back in Playoff contention.

Pac-12 is a clusterfuck. I wasn't that into Washington or Washington State (that decisive match was a snooze) and the championship (Washington 10-7 Utah) was a yawn. Seems like UCLA and/or USC should be on the rise (though it feels like that merely spells the football demise of Cal and Stanford, both of whom I think fade in the coming years) and Oregon and Utah will probably be pretty good. But I'm not feeling any of them challenging for the Final Four.

So what do we got? Alabama, Clemson are locks to have the talent to be worthy of a Playoff appearance. I'll take Ohio State and the winner of Oklahoma-Texas to round out the semi-final. That leaves Notre Dame, the Pac-12 winner, the winner of UGA-Florida and Central Florida complaining about not getting their chance. And, uh, I reckon that's what every year will look like for most of the next decade in college football.

The duopoly is here for a while. Long live the duopoly!


(*) Do you get why Saban's fake FG is so strange? Saban doesn't need trick plays because he has 5-6 All-Americans on his offense, he expects to get 1st downs every time out anyway. If he's resorting to tricks it means he can't get it done--he's already given up! If it had worked there would be have been a ray of hope, but if it doesn't work...shit, you didn't even get 3 points out of it...and, man, Bama fans don't feel like that very often. That play was the white flag, the announcement that the game was over, a most un-Saban-like display.

2018-19 NFL Playoffs (1st Rd)

Saturday Games

Colts @ Texans (-1) (o/u 48)
Division game, ugh. Never know what could happen here. They each won at the other's home field this year, you know neither is afraid of the other. I think DeShaun Watson is in breakout mode, I'm seeing the Texan pass rush get to Andrew Luck, I'm seeing the Colts valiantly trying to pull it out...and coming up short. I'll say Texans 27-24 (Texans and the over)

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-2) (o/u 43)
Both of these teams surprised me this year: thought the Seahawks were dangerously on the way down and the Cowboys would just have a so-so year. Well, the Seahawks are one of the best teams in the game right now and the Cowboys have moxy and talent. This'll be a good one, I like Russell Wilson to be a monster but I also like Dak to steal it late. We'll see. I'll say Cowboys 21-17 (Cowboys and the under).


Sunday Games

Chargers @ Ravens (-3) (o/u 42)
These two just played a coupla weeks ago, the Ravens sneaking a W in LA (oops, I meant San Diego) got them into the post-season. The Chargers are better on the road anyway, so re-matching in Baltimore probably sounds good to them. Also, this wacky recent invention that is the Lamar Jackson offense is something the Chargers have seen before, along with that Raven pass defense. I think the Chargers are the better team, they're just fine on the road and they're ready for what the Ravens will throw at them. I like the Chargers 24-14 (Chargers and the under).

Eagles @ Bears (-6.5) (o/u 41)
This looks like a low-scoring match to me. The Bear defense is one of the fiercest of recent memory, while the Eagle defense is playing better lately, and I think both will have the advantage of the respective offenses. I like the Bears to rattle Foles, bottle up any running game and win the field position battle. I like the Bears 17-10 (Bears and the under).

2018-19 NFL (Season Review)

AFC
Way better than I thought they'd be:
Browns (7-9-1)(I said: 3-13)
Colts (10-6)(I said: 6-10)
Chargers (12-4)(I said: 7-9)

Once the Browns shed themselves off Coach Hue, they took off, man; you never really know what a coach does in football but sometimes you get those backward looks at how detrimental a coach can be on a team. I knew the Browns had built up some talent but QB Mayfield was way better than I expected (so was RB Chubb) and the defense is immature but talented. The Browns are a team to watch for next year.
The Colts were so mediocre even when Andrew Luck was healthy that I just figured it'd be tough to expect him to come off a major shoulder injury (and a year without football) and carry a so-so team in a rising division. But Luck stayed healthy and looked good and the team around looked better than I thought. The Colts are moving in the right direction, assuming the Titans stay stuck in place and the Jags re-tool, the Colts could be a major power as soon as next season. (And they could still wreak some havoc in this year's playoff)
The Chargers have been an up/down team all through the Rivers years: when they've got it working they can beat anyone; but when the offense stalls, the defense loses focus or the special teams finds a new way to disappoint, then they can lose to anyone. This year, the offense looked fine, the special teams wasn't particularly disastrous but it was the defense that impressed me. We've known for years that Rivers can win games, but now I think that defense can, too. They're arguably the best team in football, kind of a shame they got start out on the road (though their unique lack of a home field advantage has perhaps shaped them to be the quintessential vagabond squad).

Way worse than I thought they'd be:
Jags (5-11)(I said: 11-5)

Yeah, I got suckered into thinking that that defense plus Blake Bortles would be good enough. But Bortles was even worse than usual and the D disappeared completely. All the things they did so well in the playoffs last year, they didn't do well at all this year. They came out okay but after whomping the Pats in week 2, they fell off a cliff. Lucky to win five games, really, considering they apparently had crazy locker room issues and will surely be looking for a new QB, which probably means a complete rebuild.

Ones I nailed:
Dolphins (7-9)
Bills (6-10)
Ravens (10-6)
Texans (11-5)
Raiders (4-12)
A nice mix of "bad but the play hard" (Bills, Raiders), "good but they don't play like it" (Dolphins), pretty much the same team every year (Ravens) and back and forth between over- and underrated while being exactly what I thought they'd be (Texans).

Little off:
Pats (11-5)(I said: 12-4)
Jets (4-12)(I said: 2-14)
Steelers (9-6-1)(I said: 10-6)
Bengals (6-10)(I said: 7-9)
Titans (9-7)(I said: 7-9)
Chiefs (12-4)(I said: 11-5)
Broncos (6-10)(I said: 8-8)

The Pats look a little less strong but their opponents don't look any stronger, so I'm fully expecting at least one more year of Pats dominance in the AFC East.
The Jets suck. I don't dislike their new rookie QB but I didn't see much else to get excited about.
The Steelers still have moments where they look like the old school Steelers but just as often they remind you that they were always kinda half there. Personally I think they just ignore the current squabbles, run the whole squad back for one year, then move on from Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown (and LaVeon Bell? Mike Tomlin?) at the end of next year. I'd go for one more year of could-be then a full-on tear-down (at least on the offensive side).
The Bengals were actually kinda good this year. They had brutal injuries (like the Falcons) and still manage to squeeze out 6 wins, I was reasonably impressed with them and if they finally move on from Coach Lewis (oh, good god, not Hue!), I think the Bengals could be a pleasant surprise next year.

The Titans for the last few years are the most perfectly mediocre team I've ever seen. Just when you think they don't look dangerous at all, the offense gets frisky and the pass rush starts living in the backfield; but just when you think they're good, the defense dries up and the offense disappears.  They're not bad, they're not good, Mariotta is the 16th best QB in the league...all of which is exactly where you don't want to be in the NFL. I like the Titans to be right around 8-8 next year, don't you?

NFC
Way better than I thought they'd be:
Cowboys (10-6)(I said: 7-9)
Bears (12-4)(I said: 6-10)
Saints (13-3)(I said: 11-5)
Rams (13-3)(I said: 11-5)
Seahawks (10-6)(I said: 4-12)

The Cowboys were better early on than I thought they'd be and they made that Amari Cooper trade work for them (I dunno, man, that's like winning with pocket 4's: yeah, you won that time but that doesn't mean pocket 4's is a good hand). For the Cowboys it's always been about that O-line and I think that unit overachieved this year. Weird year for the Cowboys leading into a weird off-season.
The Bears took a nice step forward with Trubisky and adding Kahlil Mack was the trade of the year (of the decade?). Home playoff game? Excellent year for the Bears.
The Saints are great at home, quite a bit less great on the road. But they got the #1 seed and they're gonna be tough to beat in the post-season.
The Rams seem to have peaked early this year. They looked damn good for the first half of the season, but just pretty good down the stretch. They can hang with anyone but they don't feel like a deep squad.
The Seahawks were my biggest miss this year. I thought they'd be terrible and they were actually pretty good. Lesson learned: good coach + good QB always has a chance.

Way worse than I thought they'd be:
Vikings (9-7-1)(I said: 13-3)
Packers (6-9-1)(I said: 12-4)
Falcons (7-9)(I said: 10-6)
Panthers (7-9) (I said: 10-6)
Niners (4-12)(I said: 11-5)

Vikings, Packers and Niners were my big misfires this year. I liked the way Garapolo was winning games last year, I was impressed by the Vikings talent on both sides last year and I thought the Packers would be good enough to be a good Aaron Rodgers away from winning it all (actually that was my prediction). But, no, the Niners just aren't that talented and once Jimmy G went down, the season was effectively over. The Vikings never found any identity, just scuffled along being so-so all year long and never rose to the opportunities late in the season. And the Packers just sucked...they just sucked all year long.
I thought the Falcons and Panthers would both be better but I didn't have either making the playoffs, so they don't feel too bad; also, two totally different reasons for underperforming: Falcons had injuries early on and were spinning their wheels all year long, the whole season was a lost year while the Panthers dominated early on then inexplicably (Cam injured?) sucked down the stretch. Hard to tell how good any of these teams will be next year: Vikings had no identity, Packers had no will to play as a team, Falcons had brutal injuries, Niners were over-hyped and under-talented, Panthers just fell apart. The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers and the Niners still have a lot of youth.

Ones I nailed:
Eagles (9-7)

I didn't foresee Nick Foles coming in to replace Wentz once again, but I pretty much got the gist of their regular season. I thought they'd be up and down all year long and then sneak into the playoffs late, which is how it went down (though I thought they'd still win the division). Can they win it all again? Yeah, sure, why not?

Little off:
Redskins (7-9)(I said: 9-7)
Giants (5-11)(I said: 6-10)
Lions (6-10)(I said: 5-11)
Bucs (5-11)(I said: 3-13)
Cards (3-13)(I said: 5-11)

The Washington DC teams are like NYC teams, aren't they? They have money and expectations, they have talent and opportunity...and yet disappoint every single year. Tough year for the Redskins, losing Alex Smith puts them in the Joe Flacco lottery, no? (Hint: this is not a good move for them)
The Giants are stuck with Eli for (at least) one more year, I think. When he doesn't get sacked, he's still kinda okay and with the weapons he's got and the defense they sometimes have, that's still good enough...right? (Trick question: Eli makes bad teams good and good teams bad; they were bad this year, meaning they must move on from Eli before he makes the look good again (meaning making them bad))
Really? The Lions were actually better than I thought they'd be? Does that make any sense?
The Bucs are what the Bucs have been for years.
The Cards are rebuilding, it just took them a coupla years to realize it.


Playoff Teams Power Ranking
Saints (at home they're the best, two games at home, I'm expecting 2 wins)
Chargers (I think they're the best team in the league, not afraid to play on the road)
Chiefs (best offense, one of the crappier defenses, outscoring people is a tough way to go)
Rams (their A game is good enough to beat anyone, but they haven't played that in a while)
Pats (still top tier in offense and defense, even though my eyes tell me otherwise, can't count them out)
Seahawks (Russell Wilson is a genius of football, who knows how far he can carry this team?)
Eagles (defending champs getting hot at the right time (and in the same way))
Texans (good but not great on both sides, is two-way mediocrity gonna be good enough?)
Bears (I love that defense, still got my questions about the offense)

Colts (that QB can score on anybody)

Cowboys (frustrating but not bad)
Ravens (veteran squad but the QB is a gimmick and I can't help thinking the main reason they're here is that everyone else dropped the ball)

Any one of these teams can win it all (or lose in agonizing fashion). I find myself rooting for a Brees-Rivers Super Bowl.

2018-19 NCAA Bowl Results

(I forgot to do this in a timely fashion so I didn't pick spreads this year, just the winners)

Right (24)
(4) Oklahoma 34-45 (1) Alabama
(3) Notre Dame 3-30 (2) Clemson
(9) Washington 23-28 (6) Ohio St
(14) Kentucky 27-24 (12) Penn State
NC State 13-53 (19) Texas A&M
(23) Missouri 33-38 Oklahoma St
Arizona St 20-31 (21) Fresno St

Marshall 38-30 South Florida

Florida Int'l 35-32 Toledo
Temple 27-56 Duke
Baylor 45-38 Vanderbilt
Arkansas St 13-16 (OT) Nevada
Cincinnati 35-31 Virginia Tech
Stanford 14-13 Pittsburgh
Michigan St 6-7 Oregon
Buffalo 32-42 Troy

Utah State 52-13 North Texas
Georgia Southern 23-21 Eastern Michigan
UAB 37-13 Northern Illinois
Western Michigan 18-49 BYU
Houston 14-70 Army
Miami 3-35 Wisconsin
Purdue 14-63 Auburn

South Carolina 0-28 Virginia


Cancelled
Boston College - (25) Boise State

Wrong (14)
(15) Texas 28-21 (5) Georgia

(10) Florida 41-15 (7) Michigan
(11) LSU 40-32 (8) Central Florida
(24) Iowa St 26-28 (13) Washington St
(16) West Virginia 18-34 (20) Syracuse
(22) Northwestern 31-20 (17) Utah

(18) Mississippi St 22-27 Iowa 

Tulane 41-24 Louisiana
Middle Tennessee 13-45 Appalachian State
San Diego St 0-27 Ohio
Minnesota 34-10 Georgia Tech
Cal 7-10 TCU
Hawaii 14-31 Louisiana
Memphis 34-37 Wake Forest

Really surprised Georgia fell to Texas. And, sorry Texas, I'm putting it squarely on UGA not bothering to show up for the game. They got it up for Alabama, that was their real shot at glory, and then figured the season was done when the SEC title game didn't go their way. Texas had a nice season, they're moving in the right direction (finally!), but they weren't better than Georgia this year and this result really kinda shocked me.
Good W's for Florida and LSU, in a proper pool I think I would've won with Iowa State covering the spread, WVU really bottomed out after starting strong, not sure why I picked Utah, surprised that Mississippi State fell to a mid-tier Big 10 squad. (And I should've had Ohio and TCU, not sure how I missed those)


My Final Ranking
1a) Alabama
1b) Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Notre Dame
5) Ohio State
6) Georgia
7) Florida
8) LSU
9) Central Florida
10) Texas
11) Washington State
12) Michigan
13) Kentucky
14) Washington
15) Fresno State

Alabama (-7) - Clemson (o/u 60)
Look, Alabama was better than everybody this year by a long shot; Clemson is still better than everyone else but I'd be pretty shocked if they beat Alabama. Alabama has now beaten Georgia and Oklahoma and is ramping up their play as they go; Clemson's first real game all year long was their drubbing of Notre Dame--and they looked good--but Alabama is starting to get some actual game day warm up just in time for their toughest foe of the season while Clemson looks like they haven't even started yet.  I like Alabama to win 34-20 (Alabama and the under).