Croatia - France -- France has glided to this point. Watching that semifinal against Belgium was like watching an inter-squad game, the teams were virtually identical in how they possessed, how they moved forward and how they played D. It was like watching twins fist fight, everybody knew the next move. That was a 50/50 game and France won the coin flip. France has as much talent as anyone but their path to this point is a mixed bag: Peru and Australia were not terribly interesting opponents, that France-Denmark game is officially the most boring of the entire tourney, though France-Argentina is perhaps the most exciting, Uruguay without Cavani was pretty toothless, and they got the one perfect strike against Belgium. They've got the skills, they are absolutely capable of striking once, twice even thrice against anyone anywhere at any time. They've got enough defense to keep feeding that offense all day.
I think it's notable that Croatia scored in Extra Time against Russia and England, I think Croatia's game only kicks in after the first 90 minutes. They need to survive and then outlast the opponent. It's worked so far. In Croatia's run, they outworked Nigeria, had more savvy than Argentina, did what needed to be done against Iceland, then wore down Denmark, Russia and England. They never seem dominant, they just hang around, longer they hang, the more likely they are to find a way. They're not overpowering, they're sneaky, pesky, crafty, gritty, gutty, all those John Wayne-type words. They've got veterans and even though it seems like they ought to be worn out, they may be in better shape than everyone else. They're well-practiced now in leaving it all out on the field.
I gotta go with Croatia. Croatia will play the full 90 minutes and be tough to beat even then. I'd give France more of a chance the earlier they score, if they can get an early goal they can relax and go for another, if they can keep Croatia backpedaling for 90 minutes they've got a better chance to pull it out. But Croatia manages to hang on no matter what happens. And they can score, they've got the guile to get PK's, enough size and strength in the box for corners and crosses, enough teamwork and gumption to make plays in the box. They're a cockroach team, France might squish them, but I'll stick with the Croatians.
Belgium 2-0 England. I almost totally forgot about the 3rd place game. Woke up at halftime, caught the 2nd half. Thought Belgium held better possession, looked more dangerous pushing forward, pretty good at keeping England's attack thwarted, not at all surprised they won. My thought going in was that England would be more excited about being there and sneak a W off the Belgians. Belgium is better and they'd already beaten England, they just reminded me of one a those blueblood college football squads that thinks they're gonna get the championship but instead they get shuffled off to the Bluebonnet Bowl and even though they're wildly more talented than their opponent, they end up getting pants-ed by Central Florida because no one gives a fuck about the Bluebonnet Bowl. But once the Belgians got that quick early goal, it gave them the backbone to play hard and just be better than the English, which they were. England had a good run but Croatia and Belgium were better teams, while Sweden and Colombia were not.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
Tuesday, July 10, 2018
2018 World Cup (Semifinal predictions)
France - Belgium -- Of the four remaining teams Belgium has (to my eye) the best offense and the crappiest defense. If they can push the ball forward they'll crack the French back line but if they get pressed at all, they'll get wrecked. France has a good collection of offensive talent, too, and a stiff back line to go with it. Tough call, the two teams are really similar. Who gets loose? Mbappe or Lukaku? Does de Bryne find Hazard or is it Pogba finding Giroud? And which goalie will make the mistake that gets his team bounced? My gut is Belgium is better...but also worse. I dunno, I'll take Belgium (they've already beaten Brazil and England, there's no one left to scare them).
England - Croatia -- Croatia looked excellent against Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland but then waffled against Denmark and Russia, escaping in shootouts both times. At their best they look like the ideal mix of vets and youth, offense and defense, invention and discipline; at their worst, they look tired and too dependent of Modric (who looks listless on occasion). It feels to me like Croatia should beat England, who are a fine but not superlative side. That said, England has played some crafty football to get to this point and though they don't exactly seem loaded with superstars, well, the World Cup is where superstars get made so it wouldn't be that shocking if two weeks from now this English roster looks like an all-star team. England is smart, they don't mess around and when given the chance, they can make plays up front. But they also seem youthful and perhaps overly exuberant and could be beaten by some veteran linkage. Okay, I'll go with Croatia, it feels like they're gonna have more chances around the goal.
England - Croatia -- Croatia looked excellent against Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland but then waffled against Denmark and Russia, escaping in shootouts both times. At their best they look like the ideal mix of vets and youth, offense and defense, invention and discipline; at their worst, they look tired and too dependent of Modric (who looks listless on occasion). It feels to me like Croatia should beat England, who are a fine but not superlative side. That said, England has played some crafty football to get to this point and though they don't exactly seem loaded with superstars, well, the World Cup is where superstars get made so it wouldn't be that shocking if two weeks from now this English roster looks like an all-star team. England is smart, they don't mess around and when given the chance, they can make plays up front. But they also seem youthful and perhaps overly exuberant and could be beaten by some veteran linkage. Okay, I'll go with Croatia, it feels like they're gonna have more chances around the goal.
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
2018 World Cup (Quarterfinal predictions)
Uruguay - France -- France overpowered Argentina to get here while Uruguay calmly wore down Portugal. Both had amazing goals in their previous game, love to see a few more of those! France coasted through group play but really pulled it together against Argentina: they got a star-making performance out of Mbappe and some promising connection between Pogba and Griezmann, the way they're turning defense to offense is impressive. If they can get Giroud in on the action, too, then I think they'll be too much for Uruguay. As for Uruguay, the buzz now is that Cavani will be unavailable for Uruguay and that is a killer. Cavani and Suarez play like farm cats: you never know where they are and they're always looking for trouble. Without Cavani, Uruguay will lose a great deal of the big play chances, which will put serious pressure on their defense. Suarez is still dangerous but without Cavani, he's been cut in half. I gotta go with France.
Brazil - Belgium -- When Belgium went down 2-0 to Japan with 30 minutes to go, I still thought they'd win. My rationale was this: during the 1st half I was convinced that Belgium would get a goal and that they'd get a penalty. So though the world seemed to be crashing around them, it still felt like they were gonna score goals. I did not see that final goal coming (ouch! What a heart breaker for Japan) but nor was I shocked by it. Kudos to Japan for pressing forward to get the W in regulation, but against a full-on attack like Belgium, you're leaving yourself open for trouble. Belgium has serious offense, man, serious offense. In soccer you typically start with the defense, you have to keep the other team from scoring; Belgium is one of those rare teams that plans on outscoring opponents, they're not winning with defense, which is their Achilles' heel, they're trying to avoid playing defense. As for Brazil, I thought Mexico came out with the right game plan: attack Brazil, get them back pedaling, score a goal and then bunker. That goal never materialized and Brazil was able to gain strength from the Mexican attack. Brazil was kinda lackluster in the group stage but Mexico may have galvanized them. Brazil is one of those teams that gets W's without playing their best, which makes it hard to tell how good they actually are. Obviously they've got plenty of talent (dude, their 4th string could compete just fine in this tournament) but they crumble at times, too. Belgium will either bring out the best in Brazil or the worst. (Gut feeling: winner of this game takes the Cup) If this goes to PK's, I think that favors Belgium; I think Brazil needs to score early. I'll take Brazil because Belgium does have a clear weakness: their wing defense will give Brazil chances. Unless Belgium dominates possession--dominates--then Brazil will get chances to score. And I assume they will. I'll take Brazil...but I also wouldn't be surprised if Belgium wins 3-0.
England - Sweden -- These two teams are here because they simply outlasted their previous opponents. England felt like they had the game against Colombia wrapped up when they gave Colombia an extra 30 minutes and a penalty kick lifeline thanks to a late goal (props to the English on the shootout, the one goal they missed was a legit save on a good shot, so none of those Englishmen whiffed on their chances). Sweden were able to wrap up Switzerland in regulation but the teams were virtually identical: same attack, same defense, same kinds of chances, same kind of goalkeeping, just a lucky goal keeping them from a penalty shootout. I still kinda thought Switzerland was slightly better but they're not in the quarterfinals, so I guess not. England is an interesting crew: some young, some old, but virtually all seem new to this int'l thing because England has been faulty for quite a stretch. And though they're certainly not a dominant side, they feel like a pretty good one, good mix of offense and defense, confidence without arrogance. They're ready to win and they have the skills. Sweden, too, has been out of the int'l game for a while but I don't feel their strengths, they're not gonna make dumb mistakes but I don't see them attacking England with much success. I gotta go with England to move on.
Croatia - Russia -- In the group stage, I thought Croatia was the best team: so strong on midfield possession, plenty of danger up front, very rigid in the back, the right mix of vets and youth, the right attitude and strategy. But they looked so sluggish against Denmark (not one of the more impressive squads of this tourney), even giving Denmark the opportunity to steal the game! So will Croatia stay that sluggish or was that the wake up call they needed? The answer to that question matters because Russia is the classic example of a lesser team that plays will reckless abandon and is capable of stealing a prize from a sleepy opponent. Russia ripped through a soft group and then (thankfully!) put Spain out of their misery. They are not as good as Croatia--indeed, I would comfortably put Russia 8th out of these final 8 teams. But they've got momentum, they've got a huuuuuuuge home field advantage and they're just happy to be here. If Croatia doesn't get their shit together they can lose to Russia, but if they do pull it together, they've got a path to winning the Cup. This is a wild card game, but I've got to go with Croatia because they're the better team.
After watching the tournament thus far I can't help wondering: why isn't Germany here? What the hell happened to those guys? You look at the remaining teams and size up their various strengths and weaknesses and it still feels like Germany has way more of the strengths and none of the weaknesses. They're not too old, they're not struggling with identity or turnover, they aren't over confident, they're not a sloppy team, they don't have internal problems (that I've heard of anyway), they've got top quality talent at every positions and plenty of depth. If they were still here, I'd probably take them as the fave. So why aren't they here?
Brazil - Belgium -- When Belgium went down 2-0 to Japan with 30 minutes to go, I still thought they'd win. My rationale was this: during the 1st half I was convinced that Belgium would get a goal and that they'd get a penalty. So though the world seemed to be crashing around them, it still felt like they were gonna score goals. I did not see that final goal coming (ouch! What a heart breaker for Japan) but nor was I shocked by it. Kudos to Japan for pressing forward to get the W in regulation, but against a full-on attack like Belgium, you're leaving yourself open for trouble. Belgium has serious offense, man, serious offense. In soccer you typically start with the defense, you have to keep the other team from scoring; Belgium is one of those rare teams that plans on outscoring opponents, they're not winning with defense, which is their Achilles' heel, they're trying to avoid playing defense. As for Brazil, I thought Mexico came out with the right game plan: attack Brazil, get them back pedaling, score a goal and then bunker. That goal never materialized and Brazil was able to gain strength from the Mexican attack. Brazil was kinda lackluster in the group stage but Mexico may have galvanized them. Brazil is one of those teams that gets W's without playing their best, which makes it hard to tell how good they actually are. Obviously they've got plenty of talent (dude, their 4th string could compete just fine in this tournament) but they crumble at times, too. Belgium will either bring out the best in Brazil or the worst. (Gut feeling: winner of this game takes the Cup) If this goes to PK's, I think that favors Belgium; I think Brazil needs to score early. I'll take Brazil because Belgium does have a clear weakness: their wing defense will give Brazil chances. Unless Belgium dominates possession--dominates--then Brazil will get chances to score. And I assume they will. I'll take Brazil...but I also wouldn't be surprised if Belgium wins 3-0.
England - Sweden -- These two teams are here because they simply outlasted their previous opponents. England felt like they had the game against Colombia wrapped up when they gave Colombia an extra 30 minutes and a penalty kick lifeline thanks to a late goal (props to the English on the shootout, the one goal they missed was a legit save on a good shot, so none of those Englishmen whiffed on their chances). Sweden were able to wrap up Switzerland in regulation but the teams were virtually identical: same attack, same defense, same kinds of chances, same kind of goalkeeping, just a lucky goal keeping them from a penalty shootout. I still kinda thought Switzerland was slightly better but they're not in the quarterfinals, so I guess not. England is an interesting crew: some young, some old, but virtually all seem new to this int'l thing because England has been faulty for quite a stretch. And though they're certainly not a dominant side, they feel like a pretty good one, good mix of offense and defense, confidence without arrogance. They're ready to win and they have the skills. Sweden, too, has been out of the int'l game for a while but I don't feel their strengths, they're not gonna make dumb mistakes but I don't see them attacking England with much success. I gotta go with England to move on.
Croatia - Russia -- In the group stage, I thought Croatia was the best team: so strong on midfield possession, plenty of danger up front, very rigid in the back, the right mix of vets and youth, the right attitude and strategy. But they looked so sluggish against Denmark (not one of the more impressive squads of this tourney), even giving Denmark the opportunity to steal the game! So will Croatia stay that sluggish or was that the wake up call they needed? The answer to that question matters because Russia is the classic example of a lesser team that plays will reckless abandon and is capable of stealing a prize from a sleepy opponent. Russia ripped through a soft group and then (thankfully!) put Spain out of their misery. They are not as good as Croatia--indeed, I would comfortably put Russia 8th out of these final 8 teams. But they've got momentum, they've got a huuuuuuuge home field advantage and they're just happy to be here. If Croatia doesn't get their shit together they can lose to Russia, but if they do pull it together, they've got a path to winning the Cup. This is a wild card game, but I've got to go with Croatia because they're the better team.
After watching the tournament thus far I can't help wondering: why isn't Germany here? What the hell happened to those guys? You look at the remaining teams and size up their various strengths and weaknesses and it still feels like Germany has way more of the strengths and none of the weaknesses. They're not too old, they're not struggling with identity or turnover, they aren't over confident, they're not a sloppy team, they don't have internal problems (that I've heard of anyway), they've got top quality talent at every positions and plenty of depth. If they were still here, I'd probably take them as the fave. So why aren't they here?
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