2022 World Cup (Final)

Semifinals

Argentina 3-0 Croatia

This game was as wide open unpredictable as any match I've seen in ages, maybe like an NCAA Final with two great teams or a Masters where everyone is balling out. I had no idea what would transpire, so when Argentina was up 2-0 at the half, I still figured Croatia could win 3-2--I would not have been shocked. But, man, Messi was so fuckin' good in the 2nd half, just owned the game, took it over like Nikola Jokic: he just did whatever needed to be done like a boss. That third goal was pure Messi, thing o' beauty. I thought the PK that kicked off the scoring in the 1st half was 50/50: there was clearly contact so a replay isn't gonna change anything, I'm just so used to the keeper being given more leeway than everyone else that I'm surprised they called that contact, I thought it was even; Messi nailed the perfect finish (the one Harry Kane couldn't put away against France). Then soon after that Croatia gave up a video game goal: you're playing FIFA, you start thinking about getting an oil change or something, the computer's got the ball but he's not doing anything, you expect the ball to get poked away, it never does, now you're down 2-nothing. It was one of those, not a brilliant play but Argentina, just good ol' persistence kept the possession and went coast to coast with it. Nice work by Argentina, Messi played great, Croatia just never got lucky, made a coupla bonehead plays and that was that. 

France 2-0 Morocco

When Morocco gave up an early goal (5th minute) to France, I wasn't that worried; I knew Morocco wasn't gonna change anything about their game, though maybe they had a chance to get an equalizer. Well, Morocco really did control possession for the most part, but France's counter was pretty good. So even though Morcco held the ball and moved it well for the most part, the French still seemed more dangerous around the goal. When France got that 2nd goal (in the 80th minute), it finally let off the tension, because Morocco really could've tied that game up. Morocco was good at all phases of the game except shooting, they never really get one decent rip in the whole game, even though they held possession well and were sneaky in the offensive mid. But, France was able to overcome the chaos, got two kooky goals out of it and they're moving on. France has the home run potential of Brazil but more confidence in the midfield like Portugal or Spain, they're a good team; but if Morocco had a little more shot making up front, France might be playing the consolation game. 

3) Morocco (legit top notch defense, loved the keeper, their attacking midfield was effective against a lot of different teams; but they're goal scoring just wasn't effective enough; they deserved this run, this is a good squad, though I didn't get a feel for how old/young they are and the African teams are notoriously up and down, so not sure if they'll be nearly as tough in 2026)

4) Croatia (good team, savvy veterans, classy footballers, but they needed some luck and they did not get any against Argentina; Croatia is definitely on the map, their recent success is not a surprised, but I'm not sure this team makes it back in 2026)

Final

Croatia - Morocco

Could be a fun match. Morocco is sturdy, good in defense (though they get stretched on the counter), pretty good holding the ball. Croatia is a veteran side, patient, opportunistic but I think a little more geared toward making the big play than they ought to be. Also, gotta factor in who actually wants to play another game after losing in the semis and who is ready to just go home; I think they'll wanna play and should be rather conservative. I think I like Morocco to find the goal (maybe in OT) and I think Croatia fails to counter. I'll take Morocco.  

France - Argentina

My pre-tourney prediction was Belgium over France in the Final. Belgium did not live up to my expectations--even after they were gifted an opening game W against Canada, a team that more or less dominated them for 89 minutes and 55 seconds. But I'm not shocked to France here in the Final. They've got a ton of talent all over the field, Mbappe has been pretty great and has plenty of speed and moxy to the outside to make plays even at the highest of levels. I've been sandbagging Argentina all the way through because they didn't look special to me and I'm more used to see decline in the older teams; but then again this is the era of Lebron and Tom Brady, Federer and Nadal and, well, Messi. This team is and has been much better than I've given them credit for and their big man is feeling it. I like Argentina, I expect Messi to play the game of his life and while I expect France to be good, they look kinda half-ass to me, like they're waiting for the miracle instead of putting in the work. I think France has the better, younger talent, but I think Argentina is in it to win it like nobody I've seen in a while. I like Argentina (they're playing like they really fucking want it).

2022 World Cup (Semifinals)

Quarterfinals

Brazil 1-2 (PKs) Croatia

Brazil really let this one slip away. If they had put their effort into a for-real half court offense, controlling possession and pushing toward a ball control attack, I'm frickin' positive they would've scored goals. This would've left Croatia no hope but a searching counterattack, which I just don't think would've worked. Brazil scored first in OT but they couldn't parry the final Croatian push and then missed PK after PK (which is pretty un-Brazil, no?).  Croatia is a nice team, loads of veteran savvy and pride and while they don't have the depth of talent that Brazil possesses, Croatia was able to put together a cohesive game plan and Brazil didn't. 

Netherlands 2-3 (PKs) Argentina

Thought it was notable that all that Dutch youth wilted in OT and the Argentines dominated the attack late. Felt like the Dutch had their chance to establish the tempo early (nope) and still they could have come on late (got an equalizer, but I was thinking of a game winner or at least a dominant possession attack), but they didn't do either of those things, nor did they do anything in OT. So Argentina is moving on, the veteran savvy still getting it done (though I'm still dubious of how good they actually are). 

Portugal 0-1 Morocco

Not the most exciting game. Morocco got their goal (nice header off a long cross) and they made it hold up. I thought Portugal was old and that Morocco was underrated and that's how this match played out. 

France 2-1 England

Man, France was the better team with the deeper talent but England had their chance to extend the match but Harry Kane missed a late PK (ouch, that one's gonna hang in English lore for a long long time) and France is moving on. France has so much talent all over the field, Mbappe still has another level to get to (watch out, Morocco!), and that offense can score a ton real fast. France is the best of the remaining sides, not a slam dunk, but I'd say they're the team to beat. 

5) Brazil (this is disappointing, this team could've won it all and they didn't even score on Croatia in 90 minutes nor did they keep their advantage or shine out in PKs; Brazil has been weird for, like, 20 years now, they still got the talent, but are they ever going to find the coach that pulls it together?)

6) England (loaded with stars (but is that the same as 'talent'?), feels like they had a disappointing run but I'd say top 8 is a pretty good result; this could be one the old head teams in 2026)

7) Netherlands (good young squad, definitely could've bested Argentina, they just didn't; I'm guessing they'll still be good in 2026)

8) Portugal (one last run with the old guard, feels like this team will totally different in 2026)

Semifinals

Argentina - Croatia

Two oldhead squads that shouldn't have made it this far--and one of them is to going to the Finals! I dunno, man, this match could go in any direction, I can see either team getting hot and winning big, I can see either team stealing it late, I can see either team winning in OT or PKs. This one is wide open, I suspect the Man of the Match will be someone unpredictable. 

France - Morocco

France is the better team, Morocco's goalie has really been kinda great so far, if he can keep them in the match, then Morocco can certainly pull off the upset. But I don't think that happens, I think (unlike Brazil), France will concoct the proper game plan and will execute it to victory. Feels like France might drop bombs on the Moroccans late, we'll see, but this could an onslaught for the French.

2022 World Cup (Quarterfinals)

Round of 16

Netherlands 3-1 USA

Man, the 1st half that the Netherlands played was about the most perfect half of soccer you will ever see: they scored early, they scored late and in between they did virtually nothing and it kept the Americans running in circles. The lattice-work defense bottled up the middle and for some reason the Americans just could not shift it to the wings. The Dutch basically had two nice chances on counter attacks and they finished them both. Game over. The Americans hung around, scored a goal to make it close for a little bit, but the Dutch slammed the door soon after and that was that. The Americans have good talent, much more depth than I've ever seen in my lifetime and I'm pleased to report that the 2026 team looks well in place; that's nice, but in 2022 this was a top 16 team not a top 8 team and we all know it. As for the Netherlands, hey, man, they're better than I gave them credit for. They did so little in the group that I just kinda forgot to pay attention to them, but I was impressed with their size and speed all over the field, they're gonna be a tough out. 

Argentina 2-1 Australia

Yeah, Argentina was just better, man. The Aussies put up a game effort but they were never in this game and while this is probably the best Australian team I've ever seen....yeah....that's not saying much. There's always one team that's too old and I thought Argentina might be that team (still got my eye on Portugal and Croatia, too), but so far they've used their veteran savvy to get by. I don't think that's gonna work against the Netherlands, but we'll see. 

France 3-1 Poland

(I missed this game) Kinda seemed like the Netherlands-USA game: France was in control throughout, Poland added a late PK to make it look like a game, but I don't think it was. France is good, man, they're still in the sweet spot of their greatest generation and Mbappe is the MVP up to this point, I'd say (Messi has been pretty damn good, though). 

England 3-0 Senegal

I thought this match had some upset potential, but Senegal just never could find the upper hand. Then when England scored and then scored quickly again, Senegal was deflated. This scoreline looks like all the other round of 16 matches, but I think Senegal is better than this and I'm not convinced England is as good as they've looked so far: they caught Iran in a bad moment, couldn't get over top USA, easily pushed aside little brother Wales and got the chances they needed against Senegal. Yeah, they've won so far but I don't see them as favorite going forward. I could be wrong. 

Croatia 2-1 (PKs) Japan

Is Croatia the too-old team? Could be. But they didn't fall apart when Japan got the lead on them, Croatia stuck to their game, parried Japan for an extra 30 minutes and then handled their business in the PK round and that is impressive. I like Japan, they're smart, they play hard, they're like a really good Vanderbilt team: you know you've got more talent and that becomes your weakness because these guys will make the most of your lackadaisical mistakes. Japan is steadily improving and I wouldn't be surprised to see them as a regular fixture in the round of 16, but they've got a ways to go to reach the quarterfinals (just ask Mexico!). As for Croatia, well, I think they're getting by on guile and we'll see how long that lasts.

Brazil 4-1 South Korea

Yeah, Brazil took it easy on them in the 2nd half. Does the score look like a blowout? Man, Brazil took a nap for 45 minutes--that's how much of a blowout this game was. Does this suggest that South Korea sucks? Not at all. They are disciplined and well coached, they're good athletes and that goal they scored was fuckin' shweet! No, this is indicative of Brazil's resurrection. They've been kinda out of it for a while now, but they're gonna be tough to beat from here on out. South Korea did not suck in this game and Brazil smacked them around mercilessly before getting bored. Brazil is in it to win it this year. 

Spain 0-1 (PKs) Morocco

Not a shock. Of the eight "lesser" teams in the round of 16, Morocco is arguably the best side, they were really good in group. Spain is solid, nice mix of youth and vets, but they're not back to the 2000s form and losing to Morocco might normally seem like an upset, I thought these two were evenly matched. Indeed, it was clear fairly early in the match that it was gonna take a PK or a fluke play for either team pull it out, this had overtime written all over it. In PKs, I was little surprised that Spain missed their first three shots, felt like they'd have the veteran savvy to pull it out, but they didn't. Hey, man, not an upset, Morocco is solid. 

Portugal 6-1 Switzerland

Not surprised that Portugal laid the smackdown on Switzerland but I'm a little dubious of their overwhelming offense. They strike me as one of those teams that's too old to get it done but if they can keep this level of attack up, then they can definitely move on. Switzerland just couldn't hang; once they were forced into full attack mode, their defense got shredded on the counter, Portugal just plucked goals as if from a grapevine. 

9-16

9) Spain (Netherlands, England, France, Argentina, Brazil and Portugal all got up by 2 goals and then smothered their opponents; Croatia was able to weather the storm and get to OT but Spain couldn't get the lead and couldn't find the equalizer. They're not at their 2000s peak but the influx of young talent might be tough to beat in 2026)

10) Japan (Good team, man, they flat out beat Germany, should've beaten Croatia--Japa could easily still be in play. Japan is steadily producing better and better athletes each year, they'll be around in 2026)

11) USA (Not bad, one of those squads that forever oscillates between underrated and overrated. A nice showing against England, but should've finished off Wales, should've handled Iran and they did get housed by the Netherlands (though I suspect Netherlands is really good). So...nice tourney, not a failure but I'd like to see more confidence and looking more dangerous at the next level. USA is the host team in 2026, is USA's time finally on the horizon? 

12) South Korea (got housed by Brazil but otherwise competed well and South Korea for a while now have been passing the bus test: yeah, they look badasses getting off the bus. They're producing more athletes, they're on the up right and they'll be dominating Asia, along with Japan, for the foreseeable future. They'll be around in 2026)

13) Senegal (Senegal has a spicy offense, they produce solid athletes, just a matter of having a raft of young badasses at the same time. If they could've held off England's early offense, they might've taken that game (a mix of thinking Senegal is underrated and England is overrated))

14) Poland (They've got Lewandoski so they've definitely got for-real world class talent up front. But...there's not much beyond that. Otherwise they're just....Australia)

15) Australia (Yeah, if they had Lewandowski, I'd put them at #14. I think they're getting better and it is worth remembering that Australia is a deceptively small country, so the amount of talent produced is maybe about right)

16) Switzerland (I've been complaining about the "old" teams and frankly that's what Switzerland was. They had a coupla nice players but not nearly enough depth to even come close to Portugal (a team I'm not even that into))

Quarterfinals

Netherlands - Argentina

I'll take Netherlands, they're big and fast at every position. Argentina has the savvy but I think the Netherlands can pierce that defense, which might make the Argentine offense go haywire. 

France - England

I'll take France, they're just better. 

Croatia - Brazil

Brazil is rolling, man. They kinda haven't done anything since 2002 but this team meshes together in a way we haven't seen from Brazil since the 1990s. Throw in that Croatia is clearly one of the "old" teams and this could be a boat race. 

Morocco - Portugal

I like Morocco, if they can keep Portugal out of the box, then it can be the Moroccan counter that gets out on the break. I don't like Portugal that much but their offense has been effective, if they keep it going, they can roll up on Morocco. We'll see.

2022-23 NFL (Weeks 11, 12 & 13)

Week 11

Games I watched (some of):

Titans 27-17 Packers

The Packers tried to make a game of it, but the Titans ground out a solid W in Lambeau. I'm starting to like the Titans, their combo of strong running game and good pass rush will keep them in games and I like the coach. The Packers better get going now if they're planning on making the playoffs.

Browns 23-31 Bills

The Bills this season have dominated the 1st halves of games and sucked in the 2nd; here they kinda mixed up the formula: the Browns were good early on and late in the game, while the Bills kinda killed them in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Okay, well, at least the Bills have changed up their routine. The Browns have a nice running game and could be really good, but I think they're softer on defense than they want to admit (easy to blame the QB but I think he's fine). The Bills still have a ways to go to get back to the top tier. 

Bengals 37-30 Steelers

Fun games but a sloppy game, too. The Bengals weren't exactly great but somehow it never felt like the Steelers were gonna win (although their offense looked better than it had in weeks). 

Chiefs 30-27 Chargers

Fun game. I thought the Chargers were gonna do it, but Mahomes-to-Kelce is still the most reliable hookup in the league and down the stretch they made the plays they needed to make. The Chargers have two tough L's to KC this year; the Chiefs are still the team to beat in the AFC. 

The rest of the slate:

Bears 24-27 Falcons. Wow, people must've actually watched this game. Can you imagine?

Eagles 17-16 Colts. Eagles scrambled late to steal the W from the Colts (who did beat the Chiefs this year, if you will recall). This would've been a bad L for the Eagles, they did well to right the ship in time. 

Jets 3-10 Patriots. Punt return TD at the buzzer to win the game; impressive defenses, unimpressive offenses.

Rams 20-27 Saints. The Rams just don't care this season. Nice W for the Saints. 

Lions 31-18 Giants. Not a shocker, the Lions have a good offense and the Giants have been due for a bad game for a while now. 

Panthers 3-13 Ravens. Looks like a dull game. The Ravens have yet to play a complete game all season long. 

Commanders 23-10 Texans. The Texans are bad, the Commanders are less bad. 

Raiders 22-16 Broncos. Somebody had to win this one, I guess. The Raiders are starting to play a little better lately. 

Cowboys 40-3 Vikings. Ooof! The Vikings were ready for a letdown but this was well more than that. The Cowboys kinda dominated both sides of the ball. 

Niners 38-10 Cards. Yeah, the Cards suck and when the Niners bring their offense they're pretty good. 

Week 12

Games I watched (some of):

Bills 28-25 Lions

Not the most impressive Bills performance this year but they did what they needed to do to get the W and that's what matters. I'd love to see a complete game from the Bills instead of just a good 1st half and a desperate scramble late, haven't seen it yet. 

Giants 20-28 Cowboys

Good methodical win for the Cowboys, I thought. Not an overwhelming performance but a confident one and a winning one. 

Pats 26-33 Vikings

Fun game. More action than I would've thought but somehow it was still pretty even. The Vikings are not a great team but they are a pretty good one and they've got more talent than the Pats and that's what won out. 

The rest of the slate:

Bucs 17-23 (OT) Browns. Bucs, man, how are you not better than this?

Bengals 20-16 Titans. Strong performance by the Bengals, they needed this more than the Titans and they went and got the W. Good work. 

Texans 15-30 Dolphins. Texans suck, Dolphins are okay.

Bears 10-31 Jets. The Bears without QB Fields are possibly the worst team in the league; meanwhile, NYJ is kinda rolling.

Falcons 13-19 Commanders. The Commanders aren't great but they aren't bad and that's better than the Falcons. 

Broncos 10-23 Panthers. Man, the Broncos offense is so bad that its hard to truly appreciate how damn good their defense is. But, this doesn't do anything for the Panthers--that's how lame this L was for the Broncos!

Ravens 27-28 Jags. The Ravens are allergic to playing a complete 60 minute game. If they figure it out, they're still good enough to win it all. The Jags are still a plucky bunch of youngsters, nice W for them.

Chargers 25-24 Cards. The Chargers would be more impressive if they just went out and got wins instead of just farting around out there. The Cards are not particularly good, this is the kind of game the Chargers should win comfortably. 

Raiders 40-34 (OT) Seahawks. The Raiders have been better lately, the Seahawks are ready for a storm to weather, no?

Rams 10-26 Chiefs. Yawn. The Rams have not played football all year long. The Chiefs fucked around and handled this with ease. 

Saints 0-13 Niners. So is the Niners defense that good or has the Saints offense completely gone away?

Packers 33-40 Eagles. Back and forth action, one of those games where I'm more impressed with the loser than the winner. 

Steelers 24-17 Colts. The Colts are terrible--they've managed to not lose five games and that is an amazing overachievement for this horrible team. Yeah, the Steelers suck, too, but slightly less than the Colts. 

Week 13

Bills 24-10 Patriots

Ahhh, watching the Bills beat the Pats never gets old (especially when it's still so new). A glorious thing, though. Not a dominating performance but the Bills were the better side throughout. 

Chiefs 24-27 Bengals

The Bengals are balling right now, rounding into shape at the right time. The Chiefs are weird: they're still the team to beat but they do look mortal against the Bills and the Bengals--the two teams they need to beat! The top 3 in the AFC (hell, throw in the Titans, too) are gonna be tough to beat, only they can beat each other. 

The rest of the slate: 

Steelers 19-16 Falcons. Man, I'm glad I didn't watch this. 

Packers 28-19 Bears. Felt like the Bears were finally gonna get one against the Packers but, no, Rodgers did the discount double check and that was that. 

Jags 14-40 Lions. Not a shock: the Lions can score, the Jags can get rolled at a moment's notice. 

Jets 22-27 Vikings. Fun game! Felt like the Jets were better but left points on the table, some good defensive stands for the Vikings. After all this time, I'm still not sure what I think of the Vikings, but if this was an impressive performance for the Jets in an L, it must mean I like the Vikings...right?

Commanders 20-20 Giants. Ha!

Titans 10-35 Eagles. Good, impressive W for the Eagles. They passed the ball at will, Hurts was kinda amazing.

Broncos 9-10 Ravens. Ugh! Lamar Jackson got early on, the Ravens had to struggle against a good defense. 

Browns 27-14 Texans. The Texans are not good. The Brown aren't either, but they easily stomped the Texans. 

Seahawks 27-23 Rams. Good W for the Seahawks. They are the better team but division games on the road are always dicey. 

Dolphins 17-33 Niners. The Dolphins were due for a bad performance; the Niners lost Jimmy G, but they didn't seem to miss him today (shade of Nick Foles?).

Chargers 20-27 Raiders. The Chargers really should be winning the games that they should win. 

Colts 19-54 Cowboys. Nice bust out for the Cowboys. 

Saints 16-17 Bucs. The Bucs really tried to give this game away but Tom Brady wouldn't let them. Another game I'm glad I missed. 

(*) Dude, Germany played Spain--you think I'm watching the fuckin' Browns this week?!?

2022-23 NCAA Football (Championship Week)

(11) Utah 47-24 (4) Southern Cal

I thought Utah would be a problem for USC and that turned out to be the case. USC went up 17-3, then got outscored 44-7. Yipes! Southern Cal is set up for next year (I assume they'll be pre-season top 5), but, man, if Utah could've gotten it done against Florida way back in week 1, they'd be on their way to the playoff right now. USC is out of the playoff and deservedly so, if they'd won this game I'd be cool with them in but losing twice to Utah puts Ohio State back in play. 

(10) Kansas State 31-28 (OT) (3) Texas Christian

Only caught snippets of this game, looked incredibly even to my eye. Neither team took the upper hand until K State was able to stop TCU on the goalline in OT, which pretty much doomed the Horned Frogs. Good W for Kansas State, but not a bad enough L to knock TCU out of the playoff, which is the correct move (though I would've moved the Buckeyes to #3 to set up a Michigan-Ohio State rematch). Georgia is not unbeatable but TCU will need to bring their best offense to keep up. 

(14) Louisiana State 50-30 (1) Georgia

It was not unthinkable that LSU would put together the right game plan and that UGA would just have a dud performance. I thought LSU mostly was pretty good, but UGA did not have a dud game and the Bulldogs just ran over LSU, which was not unexpected. UGA is good, that D is almost as good as last year but the offense is capable of grinding to a halt, so as solid as UGA has looked all year, this playoff should be plenty competitive. 

(22) Central Florida 28-45 (18) Tulane

Looks like Tulane did whatever they wanted on offense. Tulane had a solid season, won their conference (regular season and tourney style) and deserved a better ranking than their final #16. 

(9) Clemson 39-10 (23) North Carolina

Yawn. Clemson finally brought their offense, good for them. UNC was a rickety ship all season long but especially down the stretch they just weren't a very good squad. As annoying as the ACC teams were this year, I gotta say Clemson is actually underrated in the final poll. 

Purdue 22-43 (2) Michigan

Yeah, that's about right. Time for the Big 10 to give up the divisions, right? Purdue was never even ranked in the top 25 all year long, they were clearly just an afterthought going into the championship. Michigan was the better team from beginning to end. 

My top 12:

1) Georgia (yup, best pretty much all season long)

2) Michigan (won all their games, including at Ohio State and the B-10 championship)

3) Ohio State (bad loss to Michigan is the only blemish on their record)

4) Texas Christian (didn't take the Big 12 Championship but otherwise weathered all the ups and downs of their conference, they had a great season and totally deserve to be in the playoff)

5) Utah (they came closer than you think of being a top 4 team and beating Southern Cal twice is pretty impressive; yes, three L's but all to ranked teams on the road, I just think they were a much better team than you realize)

6) Alabama (yeah, finishing #5 is time to panic in Tuscaloosa, let's hope they drive themselves straight to mediocrity, just as Florida State and Nebraska shot themselves in the foot back in the day)

7) Clemson (I have them ahead of Tennessee, because their brutal loss to South Carolina wasn't as bad as Tennessee's; don't get me wrong: I think Clemson's offense is not very good and the ACC was annoying at best, but Clemson righted the ship after an embarrassing L and won their championship, which is more than I can say for UT)

8) Kansas State (a sneaky good team all year long, their 3 L's are all disappointing but not unforgivable; up against Bama in the bowl game and I'm curious to see if they can hang)

9) Tennessee (good season, beat Alabama and LSU, but couldn't hang with Georgia and then got smoked by South Carolina which is actually kinda lame; nice team but they were at best the 3rd best team in the SEC, how great was that this year?)

10) Southern Cal (they should probably be higher but the fact that they had the playoff on their plate and couldn't figure out how to stop Utah brings them a bit lower; good season, set for a great return next year)

11) Penn State (well, they got clocked by Michigan and Ohio State, but they easily handled everyone else they played; curious to see how they match up with Utah)

12) Tulane (hey, man, they've got some nice W's on their resume this year and they won their conference season and tourney and that's impressive; good offense, they'll be a tough out for somebody in a bowl)

2022 World Cup (Round of 16)

Netherlands - USA (The Dutch have the pedigree but USA is producing players now that don't know they're not supposed to win; Netherlands is nice but not that great and they're coming in with the expectations; we'll see; I'll take USA (but obviously because I'm a homer))

Argentina - Australia (I thought this Argentina side might be too long in the tooth to get it done and when they got stung by Saudi Arabia in the opener, it felt like the end was neigh; but they're righted the ship and look pretty damn good again; Australia, on the other hand, is big and tough with not a lot of skill on the ball; I'll take Argentina)

France - Poland (France looks good, Poland looks okay; France has world class talent on the bench, Poland has Lewandowski up front; France is the better team but if they falter and Poland can get the ball forward, this has upset potential; but I'll take France)

England - Senegal (Senegal isn't bad while the English aren't as good as they think they are; this is toss-up, the English probably fancy themselves the favorite but I'm not sure; I'll take Senegal)

Japan - Croatia (Croatia is another team that looks old to me, Japan is sneaky and they just keep working; Croatia should have more talent, but that might doom them; I'll take Japan)

Brazil - South Korea (I like South Korea but they're not Brazil; I'll take Brazil)

Morocco - Spain (Hey, man, Morocco has played well to this point, but they may have just been in a disappointing group; Spain has moments of looking like the old magic, but I feel like they haven't played a complete game yet; I'll take Spain)

Portugal - Switzerland (I think Portugal played above themselves in group, I can see them crashing back to earth at some point; on the other hand, I don't think Switzerland has enough spice to really put in on them; I'll take Spain)

Bottom 16

17) Tunisia (man, they were good, thought they'd advance, kinda surprised they didn't; really solid on both sides)

18) Cameroon (beat Brazil, competed well against weird Euro squads, little more luck and they could've moved on)

19) Ecuador (good scorers, they were dangerous, just got unlucky down the stretch)

20) Germany (fell asleep against Japan, got lucky against Spain, finally busted out at the end of the Costa Rica match; flashes of German-ness but not enough to get it done)

21) Uruguay (still kinda scary up front, almost made it through; didn't love them but they weren't bad; last rodeo for the Suarez-Cavani combo, I presume)

22) Costa Rica (weird run, not a bad team but never got going) 

23) Saudi Arabia (beat Argentina, didn't do much else, but they beat Argentina)

24) Iran (gave away the first match but still played hard for two games; strong turnaround)

25) Mexico (just couldn't score, never seemed dangerous around the goal)

26) Ghana (nice team but didn't make the most of their chances; really should've been better, which is kinda promising)

27) Serbia (weird team, weird energy, weird group)

28) Wales (one PK was almost enough to fuck up the World Cup for USA, but otherwise they were non-existent on the pitch)

29) Denmark (I dunno, they did nothing)

30) Belgium (my pick to win it all, biggest disappointment of my lifetime; these guys sucked when they could've won the whole thing; something is seriously wrong with this team)

31) Canada (Yeah, outplayed Belgium for 90 minutes (well, 89 minutes an 55 seconds) but two games later, that seems like a major disappointment instead of a rallying cry; Canada was never particularly good on either side)

32) Qatar (Oh man, they sucked at everything! Shocking, too, because I thought they'd be kinda good and...they were not)

2022 World Cup (after 2 games)

Top tier (France, Brazil)

These two are gonna be hard to beat. Right now, I'd say this is your final (or semifinal, at least). 

Pretty good (Ecuador, Senegal, England, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal)

I was impressed by Ecuador's scoring ability, they are legit dangerous around the goal. Likewise with Senegal--that's gonna be a good match! Winner is in, loser is almost certainly out. 

England must have felt pretty good about putting the wood to Iran (who looked listless in that match), but must've felt pretty awkward about their lackluster draw against USA (thought USA was better but they each walked away with a point). Will there be nerves against Wales? I doubt it but they could really use the W. 

I wasn't sure what to expect from Spain and while I was reasonably impressed with them running it up against Costa Rica, I took that result with a grain of salt. They were better than Germany and if they'd held on to the W, they'd be riding high. As it is, they look good to move on but they need a positive outcome with Japan and that won't be a gimme. 

Switzerland showed off a solid defense against Brazil and pretty good offense against Cameroon. They need a positive result against Serbia to move on, so what's their plan? I think they're a solid team but they'll need to take control to be dangerous going forward.

Portugal is already through to the round of 16 and they look pretty good, but I haven't been blown away by them. Not sure if they'll bring maximum effort against South Korea.

So far so good (Netherlands, Iran, Poland, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Costa Rica, Croatia, Morocco, Cameroon, Serbia, Ghana)

Netherlands are nice, not blowing me away but they're on their way to the next round. 

Iran has had a rugged run in this tourney, reflecting the political unrest back home. Their performance against England is arguably the worst anyone has played so far. But they bounced back with a good W against Wales and are staring down a win-and-in match against the great Satan (well, I don't know that USA is that great). Iran's legacy has the widest variance at the moment, they may look back on the 2022 World Cup with great pride or great shame. We'll see.

Poland is nice, competent, the more they get the ball to Lewandowski the better off they are. Not completely sold on them but any team with Lewandowski has a shot at moving on. 

Argentina's opening L to Saudi Arabia will go down as one of the great upsets of all time in the World Cup group phase. But they righted the ship against Mexico--well, sorta: two moments of brilliance netted them two goals but honestly the other 89 minutes were pretty even. My initial thought was that Argentina was the team that brought the old squad one year too long, but it could be that this Mexico crop is just kinda disappointing. I'm not sure I'm in on Argentina just yet, it is very possible that they are too old. 

Saudi Arabia snuck two quick goals (both beauties, incidentally) to shock Argentina, so this team has pretty much already earned a lifetime of blow jobs regardless of where they go from here. These guys are playing on house money, not sure if they're any good at all.

Japan is a nice squad. When they tied up Germany I thought they earned their draw, but when they got that 2nd goal, I was impressed at their ability to stand up to a (hmmm...."better"....let's say "more talented") side. I thought they were merely unlucky against Costa Rica and now even after a full-on shocking upset, they're still playing for their lives against Spain. They'll need another big steal to keep going.

Costa Rica got shell shocked by Spain, but I think they just had a bad day (I like Spain but even I was like, 'they're not this good'). They rebounded nicely against Japan and have to face a German side that's been backed into a corner--a match that will be a fun one because both teams got nothing better to do than fight to the death. (I can totally see Costa Rica sneaking through)

Croatia is another in the 'are they too old?' discussion. I haven't made up my mind. They looked sluggish against Morocco and exposed Canada as possibly the worst team in the tourney. So are they any good? Will Belgium finally show up and play or can Croatia go ahead and make their plans for the round of 16? Not sure. 

Serbia is nice but let's be honest: they're Poland without Lewandowski and that's not so sexy.

Morocco, Cameroon, Ghana: three African representatives have had good moments and bad moments. They've shown that they can hang and possibly score, each of them has a solid W. Not sure which ones move on, though. 

Lucky to still be alive (USA, Mexico, Denmark, Tunisia, Germany, South Korea, Uruguay)

USA played well against Wales and England but couldn't outscore either opponent, now they must--MUST--beat Iran to move on. I think the Americans are in the top 16 but we'll see if they actually make it. 

Mexico just doesn't have much scoring threat in that lineup, which is odd because they're always kinda spicy. They should beat Saudi Arabia but they need to score some goals (and get lucky) to move on. 

Denmark just couldn't find the goal against Tunisia (who isn't bad) and got beat by a better team in France. They've got to beat Australia, which they are capable of doing, to move on. 

Tunisia is a hard working side but I'd be shocked if they got a worthwhile result against France. Nice team but not superlative. 

Germany got unlucky against Japan and lucky against Spain. I don't recall ever seeing a German side that needed "luck". Where is this team? They've clearly got the talent but they have yet to pull it together. 

South Korea is a nice team, though not particularly dangerous up front. I wouldn't be surprised to see them snag a W against Portugal but that might not be enough. 

Uruguay just couldn't take control against Portugal or South Korea and I don't see them beating Ghana, either. There's always at least one team that brings their old stars back one time too many, looks like Uruguay could be one of those teams. 

Not good (Australia, Belgium, Wales)

Australia is like bigger tougher Canada: they play hard but they're just not particularly good at soccer.

Belgium was my pre-tourney pick to win it all and...uh...that ain't happening. They had one brilliant moment against Canada and made it hold up (got lucky many times in that match) but never did anything at all against Morocco, who legit outplayed them for 90 minutes. Belgium is still alive but unless DeBruyne and Wittsel get it going, this team will be one of the biggest disappointments of recent years.

Yeah, yeah, I get it: it was a penalty, there's no overturning that call. (*) Fine. But getting fouled in the box that one time is all they've done in this tourney so far. 

Bottom of the barrel (Qatar, Canada)

I was surprised how bad Qatar was, they looked pretty good to me in last summer's friendlies, but, man, they stink at everything.

Canada outplayed Belgium for about 89 minutes and 55 seconds but couldn't find the net and then just ran out of gas after an early strike against Croatia. Canada has never been particularly good at soccer, just being here is their peak. 

(*) All I'm saying is Zimmerman was playing the ball, while Bale was just looking for a foul. Not overturning the call, I get that, but it was a lame play. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 13)

Games I watched (some of):

(3) Michigan 45-23 (2) Ohio State

Michigan made big plays while Ohio State struggled on 3rd down. Felt like the Buckeyes were a little stunned by the best team they've played all year. My gut is that Ohio State is still the third best team and I suppose it is possible for them to sneak back into the final four but I seriously doubt it. The Wolverines played well, struck big, got stops on defense and looked like a really good team (if they lose to Purdue next week it would be one of the great upsets of the last few decades). Michigan cemented their way into the playoff with this big big win. 

(15) Notre Dame 27-38 (6) Southern Cal

I wouldn't call this a dominant win, Southern Cal was just better. They moved the ball, they scored points, mostly kept the Irish bottled up and got the big turnover late to seal it. To top it off Notre Dame's best quality, their pass rush, was mostly fustigated by QB Williams's (future #1 pick) ability to make plays with his feet. This was Notre Dame's last big chance to make some noise but USC was just too much for them. I expect the Trojans to finish off Utah next week and then--thanks to A&M finally putting a good game together and knocking off LSU--a trip to the final four...? 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (3) Michigan, (4) Texas Christian, (6) Southern Cal, (7) Alabama, (10) Tennessee, (11) Penn State, (12) Kansas State, (13) Washington, (14) Utah, (16) Florida State, (18) UCLA, (19) Tulane, (21) Oregon State, (22) Central Florida, (23) Texas

Bad beat

(15) Notre Dame. The Irish had some stumbles this season but all in all they played hard to the end but this week they were up against a really good USC side.

(24) Cincinnati. Tulane looks pretty solid this year, better than Cincy anyway. 

Not so good

(5) Louisiana State. Weird year for the Tigers: early troubles doomed their season and folks were already grousing about their new savior, Coach Kelly; but then they beat Alabama and snuck their way into the top 10 and suddenly the Tigers were in play again....until they got smoked by Texas A&M. Now they're still in the SEC championship but their chances of beating UGA seem slight, so....they're kinda zombie-ing their way to the finish line. Weird downs and ups and downs this season. All in all, a really good season, ahead of schedule in a way but still bittersweet somehow.

(8) Clemson. I've been suspicious of Clemson all year long (well, all decade long, really), but I figured they'd finish off so-so South Carolina and be in position to rise as others fall. But, no. They got kinda blown out in the 2nd half by QB Rattler (are we sure he's not the #1 pick?) and the suddenly eye-opening Gamecocks (no, wait, they're the Washington Commanders now....what are they called?). Not a good finish to a weird season for Clemson. 

(9) Oregon. Got stomped pretty hard in the 4th quarter of their grudge match game against Oregon State (AKA the one team in the PAC that actually plays defense). Oregon has had moments of looking pretty good this season but this L is not a good way to go and play their shot at playing in the PAC championship. Disappointing L. 

(17) North Carolina. Gotta win the grudge match games and while NC State was mostly overrated all season long, felt like UNC was gonna finish strong. Well, the Wolfpack got the better of the Tar Heels this week. UNC is still on their way to the ACC Championship against Clemson--both teams need to bounce back from their respective letdowns. 

(20) Mississippi. I kinda liked Ole Miss this year but losing to Alabama (a game they could've won), really took the wind out of their sails and they've been listing ever since. Should've been better than the grudge match Bulldogs but they didn't get it done.

(25) Louisville. Not a particularly noteworthy season for the Cards but they had enough solid W's to sneak into the top 25, but that won't last long. I thought they'd beat Kentucky but the Wildcats showed up and got it done. 

Next week: Conference Championships

PAC: (12) Utah - (4) Southern Cal (don't count out Utah, they're already responsible for USC's 1 loss)

Big 12: (13) Kansas State - (3) Texas Christian (TCU is rolling but so is K State, should be a good one)

SEC: (11) Louisiana State - (1) Georgia (LSU has had a weird year: while making the SEC championship is wildly unexpected, getting slaughtered by UGA is gonna feel like a real downer; I suppose the Tigers can keep the game close but I can't see them winning)

American: (22) Central Florida - (18) Tulane (I dunno, Tulane has avoided dumb losses better than UCF has, I assume that makes them the big favorite)

Big 10: Purdue - (2) Michigan (jeez, can't sneak Purdue into the top 25 at all? Michigan struggled against Illinois just two weeks ago, any chance that Purdue can shock the world? (I doubt it))

ACC: (10) Clemson - (24) North Carolina (two teams backing their way into the conference finals; I guess I'd have to say Clemson is the better team but I haven't been particularly impressed by them all season long)

Just for giggles, my top 12 going into Championship Week:

(1) Georgia, (2) Michigan, (3) TCU, (4) Ohio State, (5) Southern Cal, (6) Alabama, (7) Tennessee (*), (8) Penn State, (9) Louisiana State, (10) Utah, (11) Kansas State, (12) Tulane

(Sorry, Clemson, I just never bought into that offense this year. Sorry, Washington, not sure how you got so high in the rankings but Tulane needs to be here. Good run Florida State, just outside of my rankings. Notre Dame had an underappreciated season. And South Carolina ended up with two W's over top 10 squads (seriously: tell me why Shane Rattler isn't the #1 pick in the draft right now?).

(*) If the Vols had their QB I'd put them ahead of Bama, but without him I still have them ahead of Penn State.

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 12)

Games I watched (some of):

(1) Georgia 16-6 Kentucky

Ended up watching more of this than I figured I would simply because Georgia just didn't feel like playing offense, which made the game (sorta) competitive. UK played hard in the 4th quarter but the game was well over by that point. The score would suggest that this was a close game but not really, UGA controlled the game without much effort all the way through but they let Kentucky play them close because (follow me here) I think making UK look good actually makes this a more impressive W for Georgia: if they just won 41-10, which was totally on the table, then the stats dismiss the game whereas if they make Kentucky look good, then it seems like a hard fought victory (when it fact it was the lackluster-est of lackluster efforts by the #1 Dogs). Georgia brought C+ effort because they knew that was all they'd need. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (6) Louisiana State, (7) Southern Cal, (8) Alabama, (9) Clemson, (11) Penn State, (12) Oregon, (15) Kansas State, (17) Washington, (18) Notre Dame, (19) Florida State, (21) Tulane. (23) Oregon State, (25) Cincinnati

Won but did not impress

(3) Michigan. Scurrying to hold off mediocre Illinois was not inspiring. I guess we should be impressed that they survived the classic trap game (looking ahead to Ohio State) but frankly it looked sloppy and lucky and hopefully they will cherish their opportunities a little better going forward. 

(4) Texas Christian. Scurrying to hold off mediocre Baylor makes for fun TV but makes TCU look shaky right at the wrong time. They got the W, yeah yeah yeah. 

Bad beat

(16) UCLA. The Bruins gave a game effort but Southern Cal is just better this season. 

Not so good

(5) Tennessee. Oh, man, getting smoked at South Carolina is not a good look. UT was already out of the running for the big prize by virtue of an L at UGA, but this L was just unforgiveable. 

(10) Utah. Gotta beat Oregon to win the PAC.

(13) North Carolina. Dropping a gimme (Georgia Tech) at home is a disappointing L. 

(14) Mississippi. Smoked at Arkansas, not a good way to go. 

(20) Central Florida. You lost to Navy? At home? Oh, man!

(22) Oklahoma State. Man, it wasn't that long ago that I was looking at the Cowboys as a for-real contender for the playoff. But this point they don't have a view of the field. 

(24) North Carolina State. Why is the Wolfpack still in the top 25? We finally rid the ranks of Kentucky, why didn't NC State get the gulag treatment, too? 

Next week's intriguing games

(19) Tulane @ (24) Cincinnati (your...whatever conference this is....championship right here)

(3) Michigan @ (2) Ohio State (okay, here it is)

(9) Oregon @ (21) Oregon State (remember: the Beavers are the one PAC team that prides themselves on defense)

(15) Notre Dame @ (6) Southern Cal (Irish's last best chance to call this a good season)

2022-23 NFL (Midway through the season)

10 weeks is a little more than halfway for most teams, now seems like the time to give an overview of the season so far. The main reason I'm doing this is because the World Cup is in the Autumn this year, normally that interrupts my baseball watching but this year it's gonna interrupt NFL and NBA. Thought I'd do a mid-season accounting before I disappear for a while. 

AFC

Playoff teams: Chiefs, Titans

The Chiefs are still the team to beat. The Titans can run the ball and play defense (and they're in a brutally awful division). 

2nd tier: Ravens, Bills 

The Ravens and Bills both have the same problem: neither of them play a complete game. They look dominant for a while, then they coast their way to a loss. Both should still win their divisions but they're both quite capable of blowing it, too. I think they're both gonna be in the post-season but they need to tighten up their game plans. 

Playoff-ish: Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, Bengals, Patriots

I like the Jets better than most, I think that D is for real, the running game just keeps getting it done and I even like the QB and I still say they are the Bills' biggest competition in the AFC East. Yes, I'm still bearish on the Dolphins, I like the offense but I see their QB spot as still in flux and I suspect they'll be closing the season on a down note (we'll see). The Chargers should be awesome but they're not...wait, that's been true like a decade now. The Bengals can still get their offense going and get W's but they need to get going right now. The Pats for now are stuck behind the Jets and Dolphins, but I think they will capitalize on one or both of them (and still might make the playoffs anyway). 

Slight step up from truly awful: Jags, Broncos, Browns

Yeah, I had the Jags winning their division (at 8-9) but that seems like a foolish thought now; the Jags have moments of looking promising but not a lot of moments like that, they mostly look pretty bad. The Broncos have yet to get their offense going, their season seems done but beware: they are still good enough to play spoiler. I kinda thought the Browns could be good this year but their D isn't as good as they think it is and the running game can't hide the lack of passing attack; will Deshaun Watson play this year? If so, why bother? 

Truly awful: Steelers, Texans, Raiders, Colts

The Steelers have a veteran defense but an offense that is not built to outscore anyone. The Texans have no talent but they play hard, they'll get a few more W's but they're on their way to a top five pick. Not sure what's up the Raiders but they suck on both sides of the ball; feels like its time to draft a QB (but I'm not a fan of this QB class, so...they'll be flailing all through the off-season, too). The Colts are horrible--the fact that they've got 4 W's is a staggering overachievement. 

NFC

Playoff teams: Eagles, Vikings

1-Loss each, they are both getting wins but neither seem like some kind of all-time great squad. The Eagles are good (not great) on both sides of the ball and while I think they are a for-real good team, there's no pedigree here for the winning, so it could come to a halt rather suddenly, no? The Vikings are a hedgehog team that plods along and (for some reason) this year that is translating into W's. 

2nd tier: Cowboys, Giants, Seahawks, Niners

Cowboys defense is fierce, the offense is nice, seems like there's still room for this team to get better, I think they're clearly a playoff team. The Giants have been over performing but I do think they've got some magic to them and the running game + pass rush equation is working big for them now; everyone assumes they will flail by year's end, but the NFC isn't some powerhouse, feels to me like the Giants can survive into the post-season. The Seahawks, too, are taking everyone by surprise but they've got a good coach, solid defense and reliable if not overly flashy offense; I think they're good and unless the Niners really turn it on, I think Seattle can win their division. I have the Niners 4th out of these four but if they can their offense properly fine tuned, they could be way better; not sure why this offense is such a sputter machine, but its not nearly as good as it should be, the Niners have the most variance of any team in the NFC: they could be first or they could be out of the playoffs.

Playoff-ish: Bucs, Packers

The Bucs have struggled on both sides of the ball all season long, but they are starting to show signs that they're coming together; if they can just be okay down the stretch, they can still easily win that division and be a tough out in the playoffs. The Packers have kinda sucked all year long, but the NFC is soft and there is still time for them to find their form and get some W's; the defense has been pretty terrible and the offense is unreliable but there is still time for them to get it together and be a problem in the playoffs. 

Slight step up from truly awful: Commanders, Saints, Falcons, Cards

I dunno, the Commanders aren't that bad but I can't see them making the playoffs, so this is the tier for them. The Saints and Falcons both have decent talent but not in the proper array to get W's, both teams will probably have a coupla shocking W's this season, but neither will get enough to make any real difference in the standings. The Cards have turned Kyler Murray into Eli Manning: he wins with bad teams and loses with good teams; the upside is all the losses suggest that the team is better than you think (which is good, right?).

Truly awful: Rams, Panthers, Lions, Bears

The Rams simply have no interest in football this year, they mortgaged their future, won a Super Bowl, they maxed out their possibilities and now they're just basking in the glow of last year's awesomeness. The Panthers are just bad all around, no idea who they are or what they want out of life. The Lions can sling it around be fun but they're not win games doing that. Yes, I know the Bears have been playing better lately and everyone loves Fields again: but I was never out on Fields and their offensive success merely brings them to the level of the Lions (and that ain't good); Fields is good, the rest of the team stinks, they're not making the playoffs this season. 

2022-23 NFL (Week 10)

Games I saw (some of):

Falcons 15-25 Panthers

Ugh! I was watching this at a friend's house, it was late, I was ready to go, we were both tired of watching this brutally fucking awful football game...but...there was a non-trivial chance that the Panthers were going to find a way to lose this game right up to the end. Dude, the last five minutes of this game had so many near-interceptions--like, pick-6 interceptions just waiting to happen!--the sheer incompetence of both of these offenses (and, well, the defenses, too) just can't be understated. Both of these teams were just awful, awful, awful at football on this night. Thank god these two teams are done playing each other this season. 

Vikings 33-30 (OT) Bills

As bad as the Falcons-Panthers were, well, that's pretty much how bad the Vikings and Bills were, too--except for Justin Jefferson, he was the only one actually playing football out there. Man, this is three weeks in a row now where the Bills have built a nice halftime lead and then simply refused to play football in the 2nd half. I don't get it. In this game, if they'd had just one good 2nd half drive--didn't even need to score points! Just eat up some clock!--they would've won this game easily. Have you watched the game? Do you realize how hard the Bills had to work to hand the victory to the Vikings? The Vikings are a hang-around kinda team, they don't blow people out nor do they get blown out. They don't suck but I don't see how this team is 8-1 (and if you think this victory is an example of how awesome the Vikings are...oh, no, no, no). Make no mistake: this was a Buffalo loss, not a Minnesota win. Justin Jefferson was fuckin' amazing--5 or 6 of the most mind blowing catches I've ever seen!--but otherwise the Vikings should've lost this game if not for Buffalo bending over backwards to hand them the W. I still believe that if the Bills play a complete 60 minute game they can beat anyone in the league, but this taking the 2nd half off shit needs to stop--went from 1st in the AFC to 6th with one L. 

Cowboys 28-31 (OT) Packers

The Cowboys make some puzzling mistakes, felt like they were the better team on both sides of the ball, but then the passing game would grind to a halt while dudes ran the wrong routes--I mean, I dunno, Dak threw interceptions but I couldn't help thinking they weren't his fault. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers finally got on the same page with Christian Watson, the Packer D finally made some good stops and perhaps it isn't too late for the Packers to make a run. I still thought the Cowboys were the better team and really should've won this game but this is the best the Packers have looked all season. 

Chargers 16-22 Niners

Man, when the Niners get their shit together, they look pretty awesome. Here there were able to hold the Chargers to FGs and then made enough offensive plays to seal the W. The Chargers looked pretty good but would invariably break down on 3rd down and have to settle for special teams. The Niners have weapons all over the place and when they get them going, that offense is legit--and yet....it feels like they should've been more convincing in this game. Right as I'm talking myself into them, I kinda can't do it (same for the Chargers, for that matter). The Chargers really needed this game and they didn't get it, that's bad. The Niners have these moments of making you believe, not sure if it's real or not. 

The rest of the slate:

Seahawks 16-21 Bucs. Have the Bucs finally figured out their offense? Or was this just a fluky win on a neutral site? Are the Seahawks for real or do they flame out from here?

Lions 31-30 Bears. Fun game! Lots of action, none of it mattered.

Broncos 10-17 Titans. The Titans just don't put people away, do they? Can the Broncos actually win games this season?

Jags 17-27 Chiefs. Yeah, the Chiefs put in half effort and got the W.

Browns 17-39 Dolphins. Impressive win for the Dolphins...but I'm still skeptical. Are the Browns gonna get it together this year or no?

Texans 16-24 Giants. Yeah, that's about right. 

Saints 10-20 Steelers. Saints on the road in the weather on grass, this is not a surprising result even though the Steelers are awful. 

Colts 25-20 Raiders. Wow....worst L of the season. If the Raiders can't win this one, they ain't gonna any this year. 

Cards 27-17 Rams. The Rams won their Super Bowl and they clearly just don't care about football any more. The Cards are better without Kyler Murray? (No, but they might be better without Kliff Kingsbury)

Commanders 32-21 Eagles. Am I surprised the wack-ass Commies went into Philly on a Monday night and gave the Eagles their first loss of the year? Not really. NFC East teams routinely embarrass each other in weird ways, especially on Monday night. I don't want to say the Eagles are overrated (they're not, they're really good) but they're not some untouchable juggernaut, they're just a better than average team and there was no reason to suspect they were going undefeated. Likewise, this L is no reason to think they can't win in the playoffs (or that the Commies are good). This is just a Monday Night loss, not a big deal. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 11)

Games I watched (some of):

(9) Alabama 30-24 (11) Ole Miss

Ole Miss ran the ball effectively throughout, but on the last drive when they needed a TD to save the game--a drive that was keyed by big runs early on into Bama territory--they go for four straight useless pass plays and the game was over. Why do teams give up on what works? Alabama's offense was better in the 2nd half but I'm still dubious of their ability to outscore, say, Georgia. And the run the defense got routinely gashed here. Ole Miss could've won this game and I don't think that really occurred to them until they were back in the locker room. Weird game, feels like the bad guys won and I feel bad. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (3) Michigan, (4) Texas Christian, (5) Tennessee, (7) Louisiana State, (8) Southern Cal, (9) Alabama, (10) Clemson, (13) Utah, (14) Penn State, (15) North Carolina, (19) Kansas State, (20) Notre Dame, (22) Central Florida, (23) Florida State, (25) Washington

Bad beat

(11) Mississippi. Could've won, it just got away from them. 

(18) Texas. TCU is good this year, I was rather impressed the Longhorns made a game of it. 

Not so good

(6) Oregon. Gotta beat Washington, especially at home.

(12) UCLA. Gotta beat Arizona, especially at home. 

(16) North Carolina State. Gotta beat Boston College at home. (The previous two are unfortunate, but this one's unforgiveable--I'm long done with NC State)

(17) Tulane. *sigh* *See above about dropping conference home games. 

(21) Illinois. What? Another one!

(24) Kentucky. Clean up in aisle SEC! UK dropped home games to South Carolina and Vandy--and you thought they had a shot at UGA? Come on, man, the Wildcats should've been dropped weeks ago.

Next week's intriguing matches: 

(19) Kansas State @ West Virginia (looks like a walkover since K State is rolling, but don't sleep on the Mountaineers, this has upset written all over it)

(7) Southern Cal @ (16) UCLA (I think Southern Cal is vastly better, but this is an upset potential)

(10) Utah @ (12) Oregon (in the big picture both of these squads are played out, only USC can come out of the Pac, but this still makes for a fun game)

Top 12 (/16) (*)

(1-4) Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas Christian (I agree with the consensus and while Michigan and Ohio State still have yet to meet, I don't see how the loser gets knocked out of the top 12)

(5-10) Tennessee,  LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Southern Cal, Penn State (I've got the same teams as the polls but in a different order; USC, LSU and Clemson can still play their way into the top 4, but Tennessee, Bama and Penn St cannot; I anticipate that Clemson will sneak ahead of Bama by year's end)

(11-12) Utah, North Carolina (these two had good, not great seasons, both have disappointing L's but promising W's)

(13-16) Oregon, Mississippi, Kansas State, Notre Dame (this is the overflow pile, ready to sneak in if any of the top 12 falter; also Notre Dame still has USC on the schedule, they're still alive for top 12 position)

(Imaginary 12-team playoff)

(Week 1) Georgia, Ohio St, Michigan, TCU off

I'd say: Tennessee over UNC, Penn St over LSU, Clemson over Utah, Bama over USC

(Week 2 Quarterfinals)

I'd say: Georgia over Bama, Buckeyes over Clemson, Michigan over Penn St, Tennessee over TCU

(Week 3 Semifinals)

I'd say: Georgia over Tennessee, Ohio State over Michigan

(Week 4 Final)

I dunno: OSU over UGA

Now this illustrates that there are still meaningful games ahead, the season is far from over. But also: there's a lot of rematches in your playoff. Also, seems like 4 extra games to win it all would necessitate a lighter non-conference schedule and getting conference games earlier. 12 teams just gets you more mediocre teams, which plays injury risk to the better teams but not much else. Do you see how adding more teams just ups the Rollerball factor?

(*) Why 12? Well, because in the next few years, that's where we're going, figure we may as well get the feel for it now. 

As of week 11, I got 15 teams, 2 of which (Kansas St, Mississippi) I think are probably not real contenders and no one else. If we looking at a meaningful top 12, I'd say the top 10 are solid, UNC is probably in and either Utah or Oregon takes #12. 

Does any of this matter? Not yet, but a 12 team playoff is probably happening pretty soon.

2022-23 NFL (Week 9)

Games I saw (some of):

Bills 17-20 Jets

Josh Allen really kinda sucked in this game, he had an interception on the opening drive that was just a straight up gift to the defense and then another in the 4th quarter where I have no idea who he was throwing to. Meanwhile, the Jets ran the ball effectively, especially in the 2nd half where they had two clock-eating drives that really took the wind out of Buffalo. The Bills are a good squad but their two losses show the path to defeating them: run the ball effectively, control the clock and the Bills kinda wilt. Good W for the Jets, I've been in on them all season long and I still am; that defense is for real, the running game is good and I still like the QB, I think NYJ is going to the playoffs.

Rams 13-16 Bucs

You know how fucking lame this game was? I turned it off right before the Bucs came back to win, because their previous drive was so lame (where they should've taken the lead in the final minute) that I just figured the game was over and I didn't want to watch any more. Turns out the Rams were even lamer and managed to give the ball back to the Bucs with virtually no time on the clock and still let them win. Ohhhhhhhh, what a shit show. Look, the Rams all season long have just looked uninterested in football, but today was a whole new level, they went waaaaaay out of their way to lose this one. As for the Bucs, they just suck, I can't believe Tom Brady would just give up on his family unless he thought the Bucs could be good, so they're not disinterested, they just suck. This was a battle of a team that just isn't very good and another team that just doesn't care. I know this looked like the sexy game in the pre-season but making this the Sunday marquis game was not a good move. 

Titans 17-20 (OT) Chiefs

Strangely fun game considering what a grind it was (and that the Titans were playing with no QB). The Titans played stingy defense and ran the ball well but, let's be honest, the Chiefs still should've won by two TD's. Football is a hard game and Titans Coach Vrabal has a knack for making the game even harder (though it was hardest for his own QB, right? 'I know you haven't been allowed to do anything for the first 58 minutes of the game but now we need you to go win it for us, okay? Good luck! We're all counting on you'). Kudos to the Titans for kinda coming close to pulling the upset, but I still feel like if the Chiefs wanted to it sooner, they could've had it sooner. The Chiefs are weird: instead of just casually crushing teams, which it seems like they could easily do, they scramble around try to lose before coming to their senses. If they just clean up their game plan, they're easily the best team in the league but somehow that never seems to occur to them.

Ravens 27-13 Saints

The Ravens are a puzzling team: sometimes they look so dominant and other times they look completely incompetent. If they ever figure out how to bring out their best game, they could win the Super Bowl. But...does anyone think that's going to happen? Meanwhile, the Saints are one of those permanently deluded teams that think they're good enough to win every game, even when its plainly obvious they are a mediocre team. They play hard but they don't play smart, they're not as good as they think they are and that's why they keep coming up short.

The rest of the slate:

Eagles 29-17 Texans. Yeah, that's about right. 

Chargers 20-17 Falcons. Yeah, this had FG-to-win-it written all over it. Normally the Chargers gack those games but they won it, good for them.

Dolphins 35-32 Bears. The Bears have been much much much better on offense the last few weeks, not enough to win games but enough to give some optimism for next year. The Dolphins keep rolling along, but, man, we all know they are one injury away from having a top ten pick in the draft.

Panthers 21-42 Bengals. The Bengals brought the running game today, not sure why it took so long to figure that out. The Panthers could be in line for the #1 pick if they want it (the Texans suck but the play hard enough to steal a coupla wins down the stretch). 

Packers 9-15 Lions. Ooof! Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions in the red zone (to be fair, all of them were kinda fluky), that's the kinda year it has been in Green Bay. The Lions are weird, occasionally good enough to surprise but mostly terrible. 

Colts 3-26 Patriots. Yeah, that's about right. The Colts are a disaster, the Pats roll along but somehow aren't as good as they ought to be. 

Vikings 20-17 Commanders. Yeah, that's about right. The Vikings manage to get wins while give the minimal amount of effort, the Commanders play as hard as they can to lose games close. 

Raiders 20-27 Jags. What is up with the Raiders? That offense has moments, then goes cold as ice. Nice W for the Jags. 

Seahawks 31-21 Cards. Seahawks are legit good (no longer a surprise). Cards stink and are rapidly imploding. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 10)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Tennessee 13-27 (3) Georgia

The Georgia pass defense was air tight (the pass rush will get the credit but I thought they were mostly coverage sacks), Hooker had nowhere to go with the ball all day long and UT just had no attack at all. UGA had full control by halftime and when the rains came in the 3rd quarter, it just doomed the Vols. UT gave a good effort but they just couldn't move the ball, couldn't get anything going. Georgia was the better team and they showed it on this day. Impressive win for UGA.

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Ohio State, (3) Georgia, (5) Michigan, (7) Texas Christian, (8) Oregon, (9) Southern Cal, (10) Louisiana State, (12) UCLA, (14) Utah, (15) Penn State, (17) North Carolina, (19) Tulane, (22) North Carolina State, (24) Texas, (25) Central Florida

Bad beat

(1) Tennessee. I like Tennessee but being ranked #1 was a bit of a novelty, an extra layer of hype for the UGA match. Georgia's defense gave the Vols nowhere to go, Tennessee put up a game effort but they're just not as good as Georgia's A game. 

(6) Alabama. Everyone gave up LSU for dead, well they're not dead any more. Yes, I know Bryce Young made the crazy play to almost win the game, but I'm telling ya: I guarantee there were 4-5 easy plays he didn't make earlier in the game that made his crazy scramble necessary (remember Jim Edmonds? We use to marvel at the great plays he made in centerfield while totally ignoring the fact that they didn't need to be so amazing, he was just a hot dog). As for the Tigers, I loved going for 2 at the end, you got the momentum go get the victory (and they did). Tough L for Bama, really probably should've won the game.

(13) Kansas State. They've had a few nice W's this year but at no point did I ever think Kansas State was a top 10-ish squad. An L at home to Texas puts the kibosh on that weird day dream. 

(16) Illinois. Yeah, how Illinois drifted this high in the rankings is a mystery, but an L at home to so-so Michigan State brings that to a close. 

(20) Syracuse. I think so little of Syracuse that a loss at Pitt is just a bad beat even if they came in as the ranked favorite. 

(21) Wake Forest. A competitive L at NC State is not a bad loss (but it ain't a W, either). 

Not so good

(4) Clemson. I'm still wildly unimpressed with their offense and when you get stung by a 3-loss Notre Dame squad--and handled comfortably, no less--everyone sees it. This is a bad bad bad L for Clemson. 

(18) Oklahoma State. Man, I was still in on this team just two weeks ago, but another Saturday and another conference thumping later (this time @ Kansas) and it is plain the Cowboys were pretenders all along. 

(23) Oregon State. I'm normally forgiving of conference losses on the road, but if you wanna be in the top 25, you gotta win these games. 

Next week's intriguing matches:

(9) Alabama @ (11) Mississippi (are we looking a three loss Alabama squad? Boy, at college football headquarters they must be perusing the ancient texts to see what happens if Alabama isn't in the playoff--no one will know what to do!)

Louisville @ (10) Clemson (Hey, Clemson fans, bring the Pepto, 'cause UL can score points, so I expect this to still be a game in the 4th quarter)

(22) Central Florida @ (17) Tulane (come on, really?)

(25) Washington @ (6) Oregon (I expect the Ducks to get it done)

(4) Texas Christian @ (18) Texas (TCU is really good but the Longhorns are unpredictable; could be a nothing burger of a game or it could be the game of the year, I dunno)

2022-23 NFL (Week 8)

Games I saw (some of):

Bears 29-49 Cowboys

The Bears offense is starting to move the ball and that's a positive thing to see. But the Cowboys are getting their roll on and they're looking good right now. At first it felt like the Cowboys might've been swept up by the transition back to Dak--something about the backup just doing what needs to be done makes it hard for the starter to get his groove back--but they seem to have put that to rest. (That said, Lions and Bears aren't exactly the top of the competition, so maybe this is a premature projection)

Giants 13-27 Seahawks

The Seahawks down the stretch made plays and the Giants couldn't get it done. I think these are strangely fairly even teams but the Seahawks have a desire to succeed whereas the Giants feel lucky to be here. In keeping with that, I kinda like this Seahawks team, I think they can that shoddy division of theirs because they know they have to play hard; on the other hand, the Giants started 6-1 but would you be surprised if they finished 6-11?

Packers 17-27 Bills

Man, this had 41-10 written all over it and it felt to me like Josh Allen was trying to not run up the score. In the 1st half the Bills were pretty dominant but in the 2nd Allen over threw every 3rd down pass in a way that seemed....well....intentional. I think he knew he had the W and didn't want to step on the gas. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers knew he was gonna win the game but he was able to cover the spread and make the game look competitive (when it wasn't really). Still love the Bills, not sure why they left the stomp boots at home, but they were the clear victor. The Packers are flailing badly, they're not terrible but they need to re-tool some things (like offense and defense, for example) if they're gonna make the post-season. 

Bengals 13-32 Browns

Dang, just one of those nights for the Bengals, even though it felt like they'd played their way out of that. The Browns have a good running game and a good pass rush and on nights like this, that's enough to finish off an opponent that just doesn't have it. Good W for the Browns, their season isn't over, they can still get some magic going; bad L for the Bengals, they had been rolling but without JaMarr Chase, they'll have to figure it out all over again.

The rest of the slate:

Ravens 27-22 Bucs. Best against best, the Ravens are better. The Bucs D had been so good all year long but that offense is so ineffective, it's dragging down the other side, too. 

Broncos 21-17 Jags. This game could've gone any direction and it would not have surprised me. I don't think the Broncos are as bad as we thought they were, don't think the Jags are as good as we thought they could be. Looks like "next year" for both teams. 

Panthers 34-37 (OT) Falcons. I caught the end of the 4th quarter--memorable! The Panthers made the crazy play to get the TD to tie it up at the end of regulation, WR gets penalized, they miss what would've been the game-winning extra point, then blow it in OT. Not an important game but that moment will linger for a long time in this league. 

Dolphins 31-27 Lions. The Dolphins have put together a pretty good team but their QB situation is not ideal, feel like that's gonna be an albatross all year long. The Lions can score points but they don't outscore people. 

Cards 26-34 Vikings. Typical Vikings victory: they seem like the better team but still have to struggle to seal the victory. Typical Cards loss: outclassed all the way through but spicy enough to hang around and look dangerous late.

Raiders 0-24 Saints. What happened to the Raiders? I kinda like that offense, why didn't they bring to New Orleans? The Saints are one of those teams that isn't good, isn't bad, they're gonna lose games they should win and win games they should lose. 

Patriots 22-17 Jets. The Jets had a shot to beat the Pats and they couldn't get it done. That said, I still think these two teams are closer then we realize: two good defenses, two so-so offenses.

Steelers 13-35 Eagles. Yeah, the Steelers suck and the Eagles are rolling. Not a shock at all. 

Titans 17-10 Texans. Okay, if you say so. Seems like the Titans should be better but they're not an easy out. The Texans suck but play hard.

Commanders 17-16 Colts. Oh yeah, this is exactly how this game should've turned out. 

Niners 31-14 Rams. Still not completely out on the Rams, but it is clear they ain't got no fire in 'em this year. The Niners really have a nice looking attack and a pretty good D, if they can just find some consistency, they can win the NFC (we'll see). 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 9)

Games I saw (some of):

(14) Utah 21-17 Washington State

In and out of this game but it seemed to me that Utah was the vastly superior team, not sure why this was still a game in the 4th quarter. Utah looks likely to end up as the best 2-Loss team, would that be good enough in a 12 team tournament? (A little too early for that argument, Utes)

Florida 20-42 (1) Georgia

I'm not a huge fan of the Florida QB but I thought he could be enough of a wild card to throw UGA off. Yeah, not so much. Georgia moved the ball without much problem and quickly reminded us all that the Gators are just not that strong this season. UGA is playing like a #1team right now. 

(19) Kentucky 6-44 (3) Tennessee

Tennessee has never really had much trouble with Kentucky and the Wildcats have already had their season killing stumbles, but I thought this had a trap game written all over it and the Vols might stumble. Nope. The Vols were up to the task and made quick work of the Cats in a really impressive performance. (TBH, the bar I was in switched to the World Series at halftime and no one wanted to go back to football) The Vols got UGA next week, biggest game of the year so far.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (3) Tennessee, (4) Michigan. (7) Texas Christian, (8) Oregon, (11) Southern Cal, (12) UCLA, (14) Utah, (15) Mississippi, (17) Illinois, (21) North Carolina, (22) Kansas State

Won but did not impress

(24) North Carolina State. This is not a top 20 team, 

Bad beat

(13) Penn State. The Nittany Lions are nice but just not good enough to get past the giants of their conference right now. 

Not so good

(9) Oklahoma State. Whoa! WTF? I've been in on the Cowboys all season long, even kept with them after a tough L to TCU but, man, they were never in this game. Kansas State whomped the shit out of them from beginning to end--looked like they felt sorry for OSU in the 2nd half. Not a good look, Cowboys.

(10) Wake Forest. I've kinda liked Wake all year long but I never felt like they were a top 10 team and while I'm a little surprised how badly Louisville put in on them, I'm not shocked that they lost a road conference game but they're not that good. 

(16) Syracuse. If they were a for-real top 20 squad, they would've handled Notre Dame at home. 

(19) Kentucky. Tennessee was an opportunity for Kentucky to salvage the season (well, with the fans anyway) and the Cats couldn't get it done. Will they be back next year? We'll see.

(20) Cincinnati. If they deserved to be here, they would've won. 

(25) South Carolina. Losing at home to Missouri is not good.

Next week's intriguing matches:

(2) Tennessee @ (1) Georgia (okay, here we go)

(6) Alabama @ (16) Louisiana State (remember we wrote off LSU? Well, here they are with a shot to fuck up Bama's season. If this is still a game at halftime, then it's big deal)

(20) Wake Forest @ (21) North Carolina State (seriously, ACC? This is what you're bringing to the table?)

2022-23 NFL (Week 7)

Games I saw (some of):

Saints 34-42 Cards

Well, if the Saints hadn't thrown a million interceptions (half of which went for TDs), they probably would've won this game. Both teams moved the ball pretty well but the Saints just kept turning it over, which doomed them. Tough to watch this game and think the Saints are better with Andy Dalton than Jameis Winston but...well...I kinda think they are (and I actually still like Jameis). But the Cards stink and one bust out scorefest doesn't change the fact that they're not making the playoffs (and the coach will soon be looking for a new job). 

Browns 20-23 Ravens

Good game. The Browns came to play but the Ravens smothered them in the 2nd half and made enough plays to squeak by. I'm still not sold on the Ravens but they clearly have good talent and are capable of winning, so I guess I still see them as a playoff team. The Browns are a team that isn't as good as it thinks it is, the players aren't doing the little things because they don't think they have to; there is still time, though, for them to get themselves right before Deshaun Watson comes back, still time for this team to get good but they better get going. 

Packers 21-23 Commanders

Caught the end of it. Man, the Packers D is fuckin' terrible! And the offense isn't good. Halfway through the season (-ish) and the Packers are not right and don't look like they're gonna get right. The Commanders, on the other hand, have sucked all season long and didn't look particularly good today, though they converted some big 1st downs late. Not looking good for either team going forward. 

Falcons 17-35 Bengals

Burrow was kinda masterful here, flinging the ball to all receivers at will. The Falcons were hanging for a little bit but the onslaught was too much for them.  

Chiefs 44-23 Niners

Felt like the Niners were gonna hang for a little bit. That didn't last long. The Chiefs scored and kept scoring, the Niners scored and then flailed. The Chiefs are definitely still among the best teams in the league and when the offense is really rolling, it is scary. 

Steelers 10-16 Dolphins

Dolphins jumped out to a nice quick lead and then....nothing happened for a coupla hours and the game was over. Miami did what they had to do (namely, shield the QB to the point of sacrificing the other 10 players on offense) and they made it hold up because the Steelers offense is that bad.  

Bears 33-14 Pats

Yeah, I watched most of this and I still have no idea what happened to the Pats. They went all QB controversy for no particular reason and the defense just vanished shortly before halftime. The Bears were moving the ball at will, getting turnovers on defense and looked much more accustomed to the weird weather than the Pats. I dunno, man, I have no idea what this was. 

The rest of the slate: 

Lions 6-24 Cowboys. Yeah, that sounds about right.

Colts 10-19 Titans. I still say the Colts are among the worst teams in the league; the Titans can be good but that division should allow them to be mediocre and still make the playoffs. 

Bucs 3-21 Panthers. Uh......what happened here? The Bucs D is good but not that good and the offense has completely disappeared. 

Giants 23-17 Jags. The G-Men just keep rolling, their running game and pass rush are legit and that's a good start, shouldn't be too shocked at their success. The Jags are 2 years away (from being 2 years away). 

Jets 16-9 Broncos. The Jets D is for real, the Broncos offensive woes are also for real. 

Texans 20-38 Raiders. The Texans have probably the least amount of talent in the league but they play hard, so this is deceptively good W for the Raiders. Still time for the Raiders to get it going (and their division is weaker than advertised, so I expect them to be in the playoff hunt). 

Seahawks 37-23 Chargers. The Seahawks are quietly a really good team and their division is not as good as advertised, they could still win it. The Chargers just go out of their way to lose games and that's weird, ton of talent but just dedicated to not winning or something like that. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 8)

Games I saw (some of):

(14) Syracuse 21-27 (5) Clemson

Meh.  I'm supposed to be impressed that Clemson finally beat a ranked team, but I kinda thought Syracuse blew that more than Clemson winning. Syracuse pretty well dominated the first three quarters, then made a series of dumb penalties that gave Clemson a chance to get back in the game. From there one big play was all it took for Clemson to snatch the game away. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get it: Clemson dominated the recruiting every year which obviously means they're better than everyone else. But, why don't they just kick the shit out of everybody on the field the way a real team does? *crickets* Yeah, all right. Clemson will probably be there at the end because, well, Syracuse is the toughest game they're gonna have all season. They did finally swap out the QB and that may bring them up in the world, we'll see.

(20) Texas 34-41 (11) Oklahoma State

Fun game, close game, gotta be honest: it was tied when I left, so I'm not sure what happened. Texas's running game is legit and their D is pretty good, too, but otherwise they're a mildly top 20-ish team, whereas Oklahoma State is for real this year and bested the Longhorns.

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Ohio State, (3) Tennessee, (6) Alabama, (8) Texas Christian, (10) Oregon, (11) Oklahoma State, (13) Wake Forest, (16) Penn State, (25) Tulane

Won but did not impress

(5) Clemson. Meh, needing some luck to come back on Syracuse not blowing me away. 

(21) Cincinnati. Road conference game, perhaps I'm being harsh but this team was in the final four last year, if they belong in the top 20, then go win at SMU, that's all I'm asking. 

Bad beat

(14) Syracuse. Outplayed Clemson, but didn't get the points. 

(17) Kansas State. TCU be rolling right now. 

(20) Texas. The Cowboys are better than the Longhorns. 

(24) Mississippi State. Yeah, Alabama is better. 

Not so good

(7) Mississippi. Top 10, huh? Yeah, not if you can't win at LSU.

(9) UCLA. Wow, they got stomped by Oregon. 

Next week's intriguing matches:

(2) Ohio State @ (13) Penn State (I like the Buckeyes but Penn State needs it bad)

Florida @ (1) Georgia (don't be shocked...yeah, FLA's QB is a schizo but he might be the perfect weapon against this D, we'll see)

(9) Oklahoma State @ (22) Kansas State (Cowboys should win but this has trap game potential)

(19) Kentucky @ (3) Tennessee (UT is rolling right now, really looking good, they've beaten Kentucky like 55 out of the last 56 games or something like that, feels like this one is in the bag, right?  ....Right? I'm not telling ya UK is winning in Knoxville this weekend, but the Vols can be forgiven for coming in overconfident)

2022-23 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Pre-season predictions)

MVP : Joel Embiid (Sixers)

DPOY: Robert Covington (Clippers)

6th Man: Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

ROY: Shaedon Sharpe (Blazers)

Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzula (Celtics)

Exec of the Year: Masai Ujiri (Raptors)

Playoffs

East

Play-ins: Celtics over Bulls, Hawks over Knicks; Hawks over Bulls

1st Round : (1) Sixers over (9) Hawks in 6; (7) Celtics overs (2) Raptors in 6; (3) Bucks over (6) Heat in 7; (4) Nets over (5) Cavs in 5

Quarterfinals: Sixers over Celtics in 7; Bucks over Nets in 6

Semi-finals: Bucks over Sixers in 6

West:

Play-ins: (8) Lakers over (7) Wolves; (10) Pelicans over (9) Kings; Pelicans over Wolves

1st Round: (1) Nuggets over (10) Pelicans in 7; (2) Clippers over (8) Lakers in 7; (3) Grizzlies over (6) Suns in 7; (5) Warriors over (4) Mavs in 6

Quarterfinals: Warriors over Nuggets in 6; Clippers over Grizzlies in 7

Semi-finals: Warriors over Clippers in 7

Finals: Warriors over Bucks in 7

2022-23 Pointless NBA Trade Idea

(Okay....I'll take the bait...)

Thunder get: Draymond Green (with the presumption that he signs long term); Warriors get: Lu Dort, 3 1st rd draft picks

The Warriors obviously don't want to lose Draymond but they've already re-upped Wiggins and Poole, 2023 summer will be time to re-up Klay and possibly Wiseman, then 2024 summer will be time to re-up Moody and Kuminga. It's easy to say "Pay all of them!" (*), but there is a limit to how much money exists on planet Earth and somewhere along the way somebody is getting left behind. (**) Draymond is the heart of the team but they've won without him before and that would continue. On the court, Draymond is important but the scoring talent on that team is deep enough to adapt to a trio of Looney, Kuminga and Wiseman; off the court, the public face of the relationship between Draymond and the team is weird enough to be mutually destructive.

Lu Dort (already signed for 5yr/$80m) and a bunch of picks and the Warriors never miss a beat. Some defensive intensity, a guy going from the worst team in the league to the best, a young guy already signed long term, he's perfect for the Warriors. As for the picks I'd prefer Utah's 2024 pick, Philly's 2025 pick and OKC's 2029 pick (all of which are currently held by OKC). Utah (top 10 protected) should be getting better but still kinda crappy by the time of the 2024 draft. Betting on Philly (top 7 protected) is a bet that as Embiid ages Philly will turn to chaos rather than re-tooling. And as for OKC's 2029 pick (as yet unprotected), well, I just figure that's the one OKC literally cares the least about therefore they can be talked into giving it away (and, hey, decent chance OKC sucks by then, might be a nice pick). 

Shouldn't the Warriors want more? No. Remember: they're not getting rid of a player, they're shedding a contract. They wouldn't trade Draymond for similar money, they're trying to get off money. So the fact that Dort only makes half what Draymond makes is ideal. 

And why do the Thunder do this? The youth movement in OKC could use some heart and soul, it needs to be brash and physical and with veteran smarts (with just a dash of fiery stupid). This team is young, they need a lightning rod to train them up. Remember: Draymond had a coupla seasons bottoming out in Golden State, he know what that is and he knows how to come back from it. 

How do you think Draymond goes over in OKC? It'll take a minute but once they accept that he is a part of their team--they will worship him like Brando in Apocalypse Now. He can walk around shirtless ranting like a homeless person and disciples will appear to transcribe his words and make commentary. 

And once they move on from Shai-Gilgeous (to be replaced by Scoot...?) (***), they'll be nothing but young pups in need of a master. If Draymond isn't that guy, who is?

Imagine a team of Scoot, Giddey, Holgren, Dieng, Robinson-Earl, Poku, Tre Mann, Jalen Williams, Bazeley and Aaron Wiggins (and, of course, at least two new rookies every year). Throw Coach Draymond in the middle of that and these young men will have all they need to become ballers. A team raised on raw meat and harsh reality, a team that plays hard and smart (making smart look stupid) night in, night out. (****)

(....It makes perfect sense in my brain....Not in a million years could this deal ever happen, but I kinda love it)

(*) Incidentally, I believe they should pay everyone as much as possible for as long as possible. It ain't my money and besides, what do you own a team for if you're not overpaying the talent? There are plenty of dudes that would be more than happy to go broke winning championships with Klay and Curry. 

(**) My bet is on Moody. The way they talk him up and then play him 7 mins on opening night feels like they're selling everyone on his trade value.

(***) Hey, Miami: gimme Nikola Jovic, Kyle Lowry and all the draft picks/swaps allowed by law for SGA. Yo, Pat Riley, you in?

(****) Of course, if they ever crash landed in the Andes, you know they're all cannibalizing each other by the end of the first day. 

2022-23 NBA Pre-Season (Atlantic Division)

Raptors

Out

Isaac Bonga, Yuta Watanabe, Armoni Brooks, Svi Mykhailiuk

Nice guys, but not irreplaceable. The Raptor rotation is always deep and will be again this year. 

In

Otto Porter, DJ Wilson, Ron Harper Jr (2-way), Jeff Dowtin (2-way), Juan Hernangomez, Gabe Brown (Ex 10), Christian Koloko (#33 pick), Josh Jackson 

Porter played big minutes in the playoffs last year and is just the right pickup for the Raptors. 

I like Hernangomez (balled out in EuroBasket) and he, too, is another good addition to the rotation that never ends.

Josh Jackson, huh? I thought he had the most raw talent in his draft class but he was never able to develop the sophistication necessary to last. You know what? He might be awesome here.

I kinda like Dowtin in pre-season last year, bounced around since then. 

Re-signed

Thaddeus Young (2yr/$16m), Chris Boucher (3yr/$35.3m), Justin Champagnie (2yr/$3.6m)

I'm a little surprised they brought back Young because although he does kinda match their profile (an entire roster of long lean small forwards that can play bigger or smaller), I thought he demanded more attention than he was worth and wasn't the team guy they needed him to be. Perhaps I just saw it wrong or perhaps he's ready to fit in. If so, welcome.

Boucher, on the other hand, is a perfect Raptor and not yet too expensive. 

I don't know Champagnie. 

Rest of roster

PF Pascal Siakam, PG Fred Van Vleet, SG Gary Trent Jr, F OG Anunoby, F Scottie Barnes, C Khem Birch, PF Precious Achiuwa, SG Malachi Flynn, G Dalano Banton 

Yeah, I like all these dudes. Siakam is not really a lead dog bell cow kinda guy, but on a rotation this deep, he feels like the elder statesman without having to do too much. 

Trent, Anunoby, Barnes, Birch, Achiuwa, Banton and Flynn are all set for improvement years, right? The Raptors are rather faceless but they got a lot kicking legs. 

Next summer's free agents

Hernengomez (and player options for Van Vleet, Trent and Porter)

Keep them. Keep them all. 

Over/Under

55

I think the Raptors nothing better to do than to go gets wins every night. There's no reason to tank, too much talent to suck. Not sure if they're top tier, but I got a feeling they'll be such a reliably consistent team that they should steam roll their way into the top 4. In the playoffs, though, I can see them falling apart. A dangerous team night in/night out but could turn to jelly in a playoff series. 

 

Sixers

Out

Danny Green, Myles Powell, DeAndre Jordan, Paul Millsap

No big loss on any of those guys. 

In

De'Anthony Melton, Julian Champagne (2-way), Danuel House, PJ Tucker, Michael Foster Jr (2-way), Montrezl Harrell, Patrick McCaw

Melton, House, Tucker and Harrell are going to make them a significantly tougher and more disciplined team. The supporting cast is in place to make a deep run. 

Re-signed

James Harden (2yr/$68.6m)

Wow, look how not-much-money he took on this deal! Wow! (Okay, you happy JH? There's your surprise party) The MVP-every-year Harden is gone. But he's still savvy and gonna get to the FT line and he's on a team that could win a championship, so I expect him to bust ass this season. Doesn't that mean he'll quit pouting? Well, no, I think he's gonna be pouting a lot this year. But once he finds himself within this team, he'll be really good and be a reliable scorer and assist man.  

Rest of roster

SF Tobias Harris, C Joel Embiid, SG Furkan Korkmaz, F Matisse Thybulle, F Georges Niang, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG Jaden Springer, PG Shake Milton, F Isaiah Joe, F Paul Reed, F Charles Bassey,

I got Embiid for MVP. I just think everyone wants to vote for him and the Sixers are gonna bust ass this year. 

I think Maxey playing off Harden can be a great thing. Keep an eye on Maxey for 6th Man and/or Most Improved. 

I like Harris and Korkmax better than most; I think they're good scorers and they're both gonna get buckets. (Also Harris's contract is big enough to get himself in a blockbuster if that comes available for the Sixers) 

I like Thybulle (no rookie extension), Milton, Springer and Je better than most, too. And I'm still in on Bassey!

Next summer's free agents

Thybulle, Niang, Milton, Joe, Reed, Foster (and player options for Harden and House)

I'd bring them all back (well, I say that now, by next summer I may have changed my tune!). 

Over/Under

58

I think the Sixers are motivated to win early and often and though they'll have ups and downs, I think the talent is too deep for them to not be good all year long. They're motivated for the #1 spot in the East and I think they get it. (I don't like their chances to go deep, though)

Knicks

Out

Kemba Walker, Taj Gibson, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, (and a bunch of 2nd rd picks)

These guys were signed to be fungible commodities and that's what they are. Not a bad crew (well, except for Kemba), but there are other fungible commodities out there. 

In

Trevor Keels (2-way), Nikola Radicevic (rights), Isaiah Hartenstein (2yr/$16.7m), Jalen Brunson (4yr/$120m), DaQuan Jeffries (Ex 10), Svi Mykhiliuk (1yr/$2m), Jalen Harris, (and potentially 3 1st rd picks in some complicated maneuvering on draft night)

I like Brunson but I'm not sure how he fits with Randle or on this team in general, so while I understand the move, I can see it being a disaster. We'll see.

I like Hartenstein, think he'll give good workable production for this team. 

Not sure about how any of the rest fit in. 

Re-signed

Jericho Sims (3yr/$5.7m), Mitchell Robinson (4yr$60m), RJ Barrett (4yr/$120m), Ryan Arcidiacono, 

These guys have shown promise over the last few years for the Knicks so pay them. Good moves, all around. 

Rest of roster

PF Julius Randle, SF Evan Fournier, PG Derrick Rose, SF Cam Reddish, F Obi Toppin, PG Immanuel Quickley, SG Quentin Grimes, SF Miles McBride

I like these players, but I don't much care for the team. Meh.

Randle is a weird player, hard to know whether he'll bring it this year or not. 

And, well, yeah, they're all like that. If all these guys take a step forward, the Knicks will be pretty good. But if they don't...man, the Knicks can go sideways with a quickness.

Next summer's free agents

Reddish

I dunno. 50/50 on whether he's back next year. 

Over/Under

40

I think the Knicks will be fine but not good enough in a tough East. They'll be one step forward, two steps back kinda team all year long. Also, they could be trading up or down (I'm thinking down), so this team might end up with even fewer wins than that. 

Good year or tough year in New York? Could go either way, which is probably a bad sign in a year when there are so many good teams. 

Nets

Out

Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, LaMarcus Alridge, (and 2023 1st rd pick)

Brown was good last year and I think they're going to miss him. The rest, though, are not a big loss. 

In

Royce O'Neale, Alondes Williams (2-way), TJ Warren, Edmond Sumner, Yuta Watanabe, Markieff Morris, Chris Chiozza

I like O'Neale as tough guy rotation vet, I think he'll give them good minutes. Markieff, too, should be reliable. 

I like Warren's upside, we'll see if he can slide into that upside. 

Sumner, Watanabe and Chiozza are cast off youngsters who might be really good. I think all three of those guys will get rotation time as this team load-manages.

Re-signed

Kessler Edwards (2yr/$3.6m), Nic Claxton (2yr/$20m), Patty Mills (2yr/$14.5m), David Duke (2-way)

I like all these dues, I think the Nets did well to bring them back. 

Rest of roster

F Kevin Durant, PG Kyrie Irving, F Ben Simmons, SG Joe Harris, SG Seth Curry, SF Cam Thomas, C Day'Ron Sharpe

Okay, can these guys play together? We'll finally see.

I think Durant is still great but he'll only play 50-60 games. 

I think Kyrie will be great but he'll have weird ups and downs. 

I think Simmons will be good but still be a lightning rod for fan grumpiness. 

I think Harris will be good but it'll take a little while to get going.

I think Curry will be good. 

I like Thomas and Sharpe to grow nicely. 

Next summer's free agents

Kyrie, Curry, Warren, Morris

Play good, get paid. If not, move on. 

Over/Under

54

I think the Nets will be really good. This is a deep enough team--and with for-real rotation guys instead of just a barge full of ring-chasers--that they'll be able to work around Durant and Kyrie's ups and downs. There's no upside to tanking and I don't see them making moves til next summer. There will be free agents and buy-outs to assemble and they'll pick up one or two. But I think this roster is what it is and I think its good enough to be near the top in the East. 

Celtics

Out

Matt Ryan, Aaron Nesmith, Daniel Theis, Malik Fitts, Juwan Morgan, Nik Stauskas, (and a 2023 1st r pick), Coach Ide Udoka

Losing Coach Udoka is going to be tough. It took a while for him to find the pulse of the team last year but when he did, their defense was amazing and they rode Tatum's regression to the mean (he kinda sucked early on last year) although way to the Finals. Can they get it back without him? Yeah, but it'll take a while all over again. 

Theis was the kinda of big body veteran that every team needs a little bit of, so I think Theis is actually a loss. But not something they can't overcome. 

The other guys didn't play enough to really make a difference, so no big loss. 

In

JD Davison  (#53 pick) (2-way), Malcolm Brogdon, Danilo Gallinari (who has subsequently been injured and isn't expected to play this season), Mfiondu Kabengele, Noah Vonleh (Ex 9), Justin Jackson, Jake Layman (Ex 10), Coach (Interim) Joe Mazulla, Luka Samanic, Blake Griffin

Well, see how long it takes Coach Mazulla to take control of this squad. 

Brogdon can be a big contributor off the bench, a smart lively PG that will move the ball around. The 2nd string needed an upgrade and Brogdon is that upgrade.

Gallinari is already out for the season which is unfortunate, but I think the Celtics can do just fine without him. Not sure what Blake Griffin is gonna do, but they've got him.

Kabengele and Davison have had some nice buzz, we'll see if there's room in the rotation for some youth. 

Vonleh, Jackson, and Layman probably aren't likely to hang around. 

Re-signed

Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.6m), Sam Hauser (3yr/$6m)

Hauser is expected to take a step forward. Not sure about Kornet, but neither of these contracts are bad. 

Rest of roster

PF Jayson Tatum, SF Jaylen Brown, F-C Al Horford, SG Marcus Smart, PG Derrick White, C Robert Williams, F Grant Williams, SG Payton Pritchard 

White, Smart, Tatum, Brown and Robert Williams with Horford, Brogdon, Pritchard and Grant Williams adding in got to through an East final last year, think it'll get them through the regular season this year. 

Robert Williams is out til after Xmas, that sucks but at least they'll have him late, so might be a blessing in disguise. (And...uh...doesn't this kind of track last year, when they sucked early on but then Williams found his form in the defensive paint that reset the whole team...?)

Next summer's free agents

Horford, Grant Williams 

I think Horford retires. Grant Williams needs to ball out or move on. 

Over/Under

50

I think this team is good, not great, solid 4th or 5th in the East. I think they win games without killing themselves and should be in good shape for the playoffs. While they're going into the second straight year with a new coach, I think the team will come together sooner than last year but not at as high a level. In short, I think they'll be better than the lows of last season but won't hit the peaks of last season. Tatum gets MVP buzz, Williams gets DPOY buzz, Mazzula gets Coach of the Year buzz.