NBA Conference Finals continue

I certainly wasn't surprised to see the Spurs whomp the Jazz last night and I wasn't surprised to see the Jazz players quickly demoralized. But I was surprised to see Jerry Sloane give up. In the 4th quarter when the game is long over and Parker, Ginobli, Duncan aren't even playing, why not leave Okur and Kirilenko in there? Those guys (depending on how you look at it) need to be punished for playing so horribly or else they need to be given a shot to work a little magic when the Spurs stars are out of the game.

Can you imagine if the Pistons pull an identity crisis like they did last year against the Heat and let the Cavs win? If you think a Spurs-Pistons final would be boring (which, incidentally, I do not), then get a load of Parker and Ginobli slicing through Cleveland. I'm way, way, way impressed by Lebron. I think he's been better than advertised--and that virtually never happens in America any more. And he's still just a kid! How can you bang on this guy when you consider that he's all alone in Cleveland? That team stinks, he's dragged them to the conference finals by himself and if you think he should've passed here or not passed there then you're missing the larger point that there's nobody else on that team.

As for my predictions, I still say the Pistons will win the next 2 games. And when I predicted the Jazz would win game 5, I was mistakenly thinking they were on a 2-3-2 rotation. Not an excuse as mistakes do no preclude incompetence, but just a clarification of my mistakenness.

French fraud

Okay, so Roddick lost, Blake lost, Ginepri lost...this means ESPN will not merely be ignoring tennis--they'll be loudly and consistently telling you how much you don't like it! Why do the ESPN radio guys spend so much of their time talking about ratings--as if I'm motivated by ratings? I watch tennis because I like tennis and I watch the majors because they're the best of tennis. Too bad the Americans aren't good enough to hang (though I would suggest USA is better off sucking on clay than re-engineering their stars to play it), but I still want to watch anyway. I am anticipating Nadal v Federer/Serena v Sherapova and that's what would be best, so fuck the Americans if they don't feel like being good enough to win. But don't punish me or insult me for not following the crowd!

Okay, got that off my chest.

Lord Stanley speaks through me

Okay, I'm a day late but here's the deal: Ducks in 7. Ride the hot goalie and that would be Giguerre. Should be a good series, two good offensive squads, are any of these games on TV?

Wait a minute…

So Jason Giambi says the league should be more honest and come clean with the public about steroids. Soon after, a report comes out that Giambi tested positive for amphetamines last year.

Now we're supposed to point and laugh at Giambi and say, 'he's a fraud for calling out others when he's clearly guilty himself'.

But if the powers-that-be can withhold a positive test until a player says something the league takes offense to, then how many more positive tests are out there that we haven't been told about yet? Doesn't this prove that Giambi is correct for calling out the league?

Look at me, I am the future!

I'm on a roll, man, I am an a roll! I had Chelsea over Manchester, I had Curlin over Street Sense and in my hockey prognostications you'll see I had the Ducks and Senators each in 6 (okay, pretty good ain't perfect).

So today, I'm taking Milan over Liverpool, I'll take the Spurs over the Pistons, I like Rafael Nadal in the French Open and I'm predicting (you heard it here first) Portland will take Greg Oden (C-Ohio State) with the first pick in the NBA draft. I'm way out on the limb now!

Who should stay and who should go

In basketball big men need to practice every day against top flight competition. Greg Oden is better off riding the bench for Portland (made Jermaine O'neal an all-star) than coming back and dominating the Big Ten because he needs to learn how to play the pro game and there's nothing more college has to teach him. Mike Conley, on the other hand, is better off going back to college because the skill set for a PG is different from a C. Conley can dribble and pass just fine but what he needs to learn is how to win games and that's best done on the college level I think.

Which is why I was shocked--shocked!--by the Washington Post reporting that Roy Hibbert plans to return to Georgetown! Dude, you're a top 10 pick! I think he may be the 2nd most ready-to-play-right-now player in the draft (behind Kevin Durant). I'm all for guys staying in school. I love college, I'd recommend it wholeheartedly to every kid in the world. But ultimately the whole point of school is to help you get a better job, make more money, to make future professional contacts, etc. Roy Hibbert, you're pretty much already at the peak of your profession and the chance to make a whole pile of money and have the career you want is right in front of you. I'd say right now that the chance that Hibbert comes back next year as a top 5 pick is pretty strong but certainly not set in stone. Hibbert needs to come out and go pro because that's where his skill set lies and he's plenty ready to move on to the next level.

Oden and Hibbert need to go pro because that's how they will get better. Mike Conley needs to stay in school because that's how he will get better.

NBA Conference FInals

When the playoffs started my thought was Spurs-Pistons. I slipped over to the Suns at the beginning of that 2nd round series, I wasn't impressed with Ginobli, who has since come on like hurricane. And with a lot of help from the league office, the Spurs easily brushed the Suns aside. (Hey, the Suns got jobbed but these things happen, I ain't a conspiracy artist) I like Utah, they're spunky and they've got some real talent, they'll win games in this series, I'm not seeing a sweep. But the Spurs are cruising while the Jazz are trying to talk themselves into the notion that they belong in the Western Conference finals.

Spurs will win games 1, 2, 4, 6. They'll be in control all the way. Spurs in 6.

The Eastern Conference final looks pretty similar. The Pistons are the best team in the east and have been for 5 or 6 years straight now (yeah, I know the Heat won last year but that was because the Pistons lost not because the Heat won, get me?). The Cavs are Lebron James, Drew Gooden and a lot of organizational neglect. Varejao gives them Joakim Noah-like energy off the bench but no real skill. I'd like Ilgauskus better if he was coming off the bench--I don't think I even like anyone else that good. Man, the fact that these guys won 50 games just shows how poor the east is.

Pistons will win games 1, 2, 5, 6. It'll be 2-2 after 4 and it'll look like a series but the Pistons will clamp down at that point. Pistons in 6.

Tomorrow's picks today

My gut reaction was to pick Street Sense (7-5) again since it just seems like the Derby winner has gone on to win the Preakness an awful lot lately. But I'm thinking Curlin (7-2) is your horse. No reason, I'm certainly no expert and, just between you and me, I don't even care much for horse racing. But I've been hot lately, so if you're plunking down the mad scrill, plunk toward Curlin.

In across the pond action, I like Chelsea to snag the FA Cup tomorrow. Man U won the Premiership by a good distance when it looked like it would be close, so Chelsea will be hungry for a little payback. They're both gonna leave it on the field tomorrow, a last-day-of-school vibe will be in the air, should make it for an exciting match.

And look for Phoenix to take game 6 tonight in San Antonio. We know Stoudamire and Diaw are well-rested, wouldn't it be funny if Big Shot Bob knocked down the game winner?

This is why I predict the future

Yeah, I admit I have a weird fascination with trying to predict the future. Knowing the future is flat out impossible, as per Herr Heisenberg, precisely why it fascinates me so. Some things are large and abstract and not hard to predict (crude will hit $70 by the end of September--book it!), while others are more given to chance and just have to play themselves out (I say Persepolis wins the Palm D'or this year, but how the hell would I know?). Or: it's clear to me the Democrats will take back the White House in 2008 (abstract), but I haven't the slightest clue who that particular Dem will be (specific).

But every once in a while I get it right. Scary right, bone chillingly right, oh yeah, I'm like that dwarf lady in Poltergeist! Looking into my eyes is like looking into a crystal ball. So check out what I wrote on May 7, in my NBA Playoff Predictions blog entry:

Pistons-Bulls: Bulls win 1 in Detroit, Pistons win 2 in Chicago. Pistons in 6

Yup, I called it. I'm wrong so often that when I'm right you best believe I'm gonna pound you over the head with it!

Say hello to...

Mikki Moore
Position: C
Height: 6'11"
Weight: 225 lbs.
Born: November 4, 1975 in Orangeburg, SC
High School: Blackburg in Gaffney, SC
College: University of Nebraska

Mikki Moore's been around since 1998, starting with the Detroit Pistons. After putting in minimal minutes for his first 2 years, he played in 81 games for the Pistons in 2001. I'm assuming he was hurt because for the next 3 years he played in only 70 games for Detroit, Boston, Atlanta, New Jersey and Utah. He found a home with the Clippers playing 74 games in the 2004-05 season. Then it was on to Seattle, where he made minimal impact and then back to New Jersey, where I'd say he's the poor man's Ben Wallace: a physical defensive presence not called upon to add much offense. He had more minutes played this year with the Nets than the previous 4 years and, oddly enough, led the league this year in FG percentage (.609%). It seems like he's found a home but with New Jersey's disappointing performance against the Cavs, its looking to me like the Nets will get blown up in the off-season. Moore might get shipped out or he might be one of those pieces they keep--but it won't be as exciting in Jersey without Kidd and Vince. But hey, even being a so-so journeyman type of player can pay benefits: he's pocketed roughly $10M over the last 10 years. And I'd say he's earned himself regular minutes somewhere out there (perhaps he could slide into Robert Horry's roster spot in San Antonio, they seem to have embraced toughness lately).

Say hello to...

Andrei Kirilenko
Position: F
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 220 lbs.
Born: February 18, 1981 in Izhevsk, Russian Federation
High School: Frunzenskaya Sport School in Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
Drafted by the Utah Jazz in the 1st round (24th pick) of the 1999 NBA draft.

Earlier in the playoffs against the Rockets, I noticed a few games early on where PG Deron Williams was (I thought) going out of his way to not give Kirilenko the ball. And when AK did get the ball, he fumbled around like an amateur. What has happened to this guy, I wondered. He was all-Rookie back in the day, an all-star, routinely on the all-defensive team--where did AK go? He looks like a fantasy league monster: a scorer who doubles as a defensive stopper, a forward that once led the league in blocked shots. But a few years ago he became injury-prone and since has become something of a head case. Notice his 3pt FGs: in 2003-04 he made 68 3-pointers, in the 3 full seasons since he's made 75. Why the drop in scoring? In 2004-05 he scored 640 in an injury-shortened 41 games; this year he scored 584 points in 70 games--he's not even averaging 10 ppg! What happened to this guy?

He's had something of a renaissance in the playoffs this year. In game 2 he was briefly marking Baron Davis and shut him down--why don't they put him on Davis all the time? He still has the potential to be a great player--a great player. But he's drifted away from the promise he showed early in his career. Not sure what has spooked him but I love good basketball and I'd love to see Kirilenko pull it together and get it done again. The Jazz have the 3-1 lead on the Warriors, who look to be on the flame out.

Can the Jazz win the conference? I think they can win this year and they should be strong again next year. Williams, Kirilenko, Okur, Boozer is a core you can build around. If they can hang with the high octane, highly motivated Warriors, that gives them a nice preview of what the Suns can do. They brushed aside the Rockets with a big inside-outside game that gives them a preview of what the Spurs can do. I'd love to see Utah in the championship. But I think AK has to get back to his best in order for the Jazz to rise above.

A defense of Dirk

Last year, Mark Cuban complained that the refs favored the Heat for 3 straight games in Miami. I thought he was exactly right, the refs did jock the Heat. But Cuban failed to notice that refs in the NBA always favor the home team (especially in the playoffs) and that the refs would've been jocking his team for the last 2 games. He complained so much that it got in everybody's heads and the Mavs let it slip away. Cuban lost that series.

In previous years, Avery Johnson was an underdog kind of coach: he knew that every club in the bag would be needed to get by Phoenix and San Antonio. And he brought in the mindset that Dallas had to be gutsy to get it done--and they almost did. This year, Avery Johnson came in with the best team in the regular season and the defending conference champs. His signature style was removed from him and he didn't know what to do. When Don Nelson came back to Dallas with a collection of crazy athletes and a wacky style, Johnson got caught thinking instead of coaching. He tried to answer what didn't need to be answered early on and then didn't know what to do when the avalanche started coming down on him. Johnson lost that series.

Notice I've yet to call out Dirk. He didn't play his best against Miami last year nor against Golden State this year. This game is played by the players but even the best players can be brought low by peripheral elements. Light a candle for Dirk, none of this is his fault. He'll be back but no one around him will believe in him the way they had in the previous coupla years, even though its the people around him who keeping him from being the best. The best he can hope for now is that when Dallas loses next year, it'll be Dirk's fault.

Say hello to...

Tayshaun Prince
Position: F
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 215 lbs.
Born: February 28, 1980 in Compton, CA
High School: Dominguez in Compton, CA
College: University of Kentucky

He's started 326 of Detroit's last 328 games.

Games
2003-04 NBA 82 (3)
2004-05 NBA 82 (2)
2005-06 NBA 82 (1)
2006-07 NBA 82 (1)

He got a nice raise in his 5th year after 4 previous years below $1.5M. He's produced like crazy his first 4 years in the league, I'd say he's deserved it. (2006-07 $7,851,240)

Nobody is confusing Tayshaun Prince with Scottie Pippen, but he plays a Pippen-like role for the Pistons. He's the swingman, the defensive stopper, the clutch 3-point shooter and last year after they fumbled their way out of the playoffs, it was Tayshaun who stepped up to the cameras for the post-game interview. He's not the star of the Pistons (I'd say that's Chauncey Billups) but he's an integral part and its hard to imagine the Pistons being as strong as they've been in recent years without him.

Honors
2004-05 NBA All-Defense (2nd)
2005-06 NBA All-Defense (2nd)
2006-07 NBA All-Defense (2nd)

The TPC

You know on PTI they often choose between Tiger and the field. I generally take the field, as great as Tiger is it just seems like a safer bet. This time I'm sticking with Tiger. He looks ready to bust out after a so-so performance at the Masters. It'd be nice if Phil hung around through Sunday but I'm not seeing it. Keep an eye on the weather, though. A tropical storm is just off-shore, we'll see if that favors a guy like Appleby.

NHL conference finals are here

The Wings and Ducks are closely matched teams. This series is a toss-up. The Red Wings are one of those imperial teams that think the Cup is their birthright, the Ducks are an upstart team, a joke throughout the league in their early days. Too bad its all on West Coast time (and impossible to find on TV) because this looks like a pretty strong series.

The Ducks have breezed in the post-season so far, making short work of the Wild and the Canucks, taking both in 5 games. The Red Wings had a little more competition, the Flames and the Sharks each took them to 6 games.

The Wings just finished off the Sharks on Monday and play again on Friday, whereas the Ducks will have over a week off before they take the ice again. Do the Ducks come in refreshed or rusty? In hockey, I'll take the team with more time off every time even when they're on the road. I'll take the Ducks in game 1 stealing the home ice advantage away from the Wings. But home advantage isn't so strong in hockey: its such a physical grind of a game and the players are so removed from the crowd that once the puck drops the only advantage is who wants it more.

I'll take the Ducks in 6.

The Sabres got outplayed by the Rangers (it seemed to me), but they scored more goals and that's how we determine the winner of a contest. (The Rangers almost had that 'team of destiny' thing going, didn't they?) The Senators squashed the mighty Devils in 5 games, beating them at their own game of tenacious mid-field D and strong goal tending.

The Sabres have oodles of offense but the Senators have got their D working. I'll take the D over the O.

Senators in 6.

The Hancock Story

In all of the talk about whether baseball teams should or should not have beer in their clubhouses, I have yet to hear any of these guys mention that Hancock's team, the St. Louis Cardinals, have been owned for years by Anheiser-Busch (they play in Busch stadium!), who bought the team for the sole purpose of selling beer. (Incidentally it was Gussie Busch who ran the St. Louis Browns out of town, according to Wikipedia, I did not realize that). Trivial perhaps but potentially significant to the story, no?

NBA playoffs, next round

Yeah, I should've done this yesterday but I was doing yard work over at grandma's house--you got a problem with that?

Pistons-Bulls: Bulls win 1 in Detroit, Pistons win 2 in Chicago. Pistons in 6

Cavs-Nets: The Nets have the veteran savvy, the Cavs of young spunkiness--stick with the home team for the first 6 games. Lebron is ready to win a game 7 but no one else on that squad is. Nets in 7.

Spurs-Suns: At the beginning of the playoffs I picked the Spurs to win it all (over the Pistons). But now I'm getting queasy. I haven't seen the Ginboli that I'm used to seeing and Finley is killer every 5th game or so but not consistent enough to be that third guy they need. Barbosa, Stoudamire are ready to bust out (though Bell, Diaw have been a little down this year), and keep an eye on Kurt Thomas. Suns in 7 (yeah, I know they lost game 1 at home, so what?).

Jazz-Warriors: Toughest call. Jazz won a gritty-gutty endurance type of series whereas the Warriors just pants-ed the defending conference champs. You'd think Golden State would be surging at just the right time, but I suspect they've already peaked and they don't have any special mojo over the Jazz. Jazz in 7.

Who ya got?

I love animals, I love gambling, I love big parties but I never got into the Derby. I've lived in Kentucky most of my life but I've never cared much for horse racing. Like Halloween, Derby Day for me was something that I grew out of as a youngster and never saw much reason to grow back into it. But I am a sports guy, so I might as well start now.

Just looking over the field I noticed there are no Bob Baffert or Nick Zito horses this year. A down year for those guys, normally they'd have 2 or 3 each, must be tough for them to get shut out. And I don't recognize any of the jockeys this year, all the old classics (Day, Arcaro, Shoemaker) have moved on.

I have no idea who to pick. I'm going with Zanjero, I just like the name, it has a Kurosawa-ness to it that you normally don't get from a Derby hopeful.

The Kentucky Derby Field

Brandon ROY

I've invented a new thing and Brandon Roy is it: a Dida. Dida is AC Milan's goalkeeper, he's long and lean and plenty athletic, a damn fine keeper, maybe top 10 in the world, definitely top 20. He's Brazil's goalie. Think about that: if you're growing up in Brazil, man, you don't want to be the goalie. Don't get me wrong, he's great! He's a top quality keeper, he's one of the very best in the world at his job. But you're growing up as one of the finest players in the world and you're surrounded by killer talent at every stage of your career--and you gotta stand in the back and never take the field? You know, that's gotta suck. Where's the fun in that?

Brandon Roy (yeah, I'm getting there) was named Rookie of the Year today in the NBA. What's so Dida about that? That kinda rules. Well, normally, it kinda rules. But this year's rookie class is perhaps the worst of my lifetime, certainly for as long as I've been watching b-ball. In my NBA draft preview from last year (which I'd love to link to but it doesn't exist), Brandon Roy and Adam Morrison were the only two players I had any hopes for at all, it looked weak all the way last year. Andrea Bargnani in Toronto, Paul Milsapp in Utah, maybe Tyrus Thomas with the Bulls, along with Roy and Morrison are probably the only 5 rookies even worth mentioning this year (and realistically Milsapp and Thomas are not actually worth mentioning). Seriously, man, how many rookies this year are one of the top 100 players in the NBA? Not top 10--top 100? Think of the top 20 starting 5's you could imagine in the NBA...would Brandon Roy in there? Maybe Roy, maybe Bargnani--just barely. That's seriously weak--dude, that's like Carrot Top weak.

No, wait. I guess he's not a Dida, he's the opposite, huh? Rather than being a guy who will spend his career gazing at the backs of the finest soccer players on earth and never getting to play, Roy is the pacesetter of a mediocre bunch. He is the leader of a bunch of guys who shouldn't be playing. In that case he would be a... a Landon Donovan.

It's Liverpool-AC Milan

Today's 2nd leg match between AC Milan and Man U was a beauty, well, if you're a Milan fan. Kaka is the leading scorer in the Champions League this year and his domination of Manchester in the semi-finals (3 of Milan's 5 goals), make him the MVP of the League, no doubt about it. But Seedorf was the man of the match today, with an assist to Kaka and a beautiful goal soon after to really seal the deal. Manchester came in with a 3-2 lead but they played squishy early on and then got sucked into Milan's rope-a-dope defensive sag in the second half. Gilardino came off the bench to poke in the capper late in the game, it was a thrashing.

Liverpool finished off Chelsea on Tuesday in what was, unfortunately, a really dull match. Chelsea came in with the 1-0 advantage but Liverpool got that goal back early in the match on a sweet goal off a set play. As much as ESPN's commentators praised the ref, I thought he made a few calls early on that disincentivized forward play--now why do that in semi-final match? Chelsea didn't bring much offense and Liverpool was only sloppily superior. The aggregate was tied at 1 but Chelsea just couldn't muster penalty kicks on the road so Liverpool moves on.

AC Milan-Liverpool is a re-match of the 2005 Finals, one of those historic finals that you just had to see to believe--and considering how plastered I was, I'm surprised I saw anything at all. Milan scored within the first 2 minutes, added another goal soon after and chipped in a third just before halftime. It looked like it was over. Way, way over. But Liverpool, plucky little scamps they are, come all the way back, tie it up and take the Cup on penalty kicks. One of the greatest single games I've probably ever seen. I'll take Milan, I just think they're flat out better on offense and defense and Kaka is an unstoppable force (a Brazilian Chuck Norris). And they're eager to get a little payback on 2005's unbelievable collapse.

(Parenthetically: Chelsea and Man U are still on for the FA Cup Final and are still dueling for the top of the table in the Premiership. But their hopes of a 'treble' both fell short in the semis of the Champions League. I'm thinking Man U takes the FA and Chelsea takes the Premiership, just a feeling.)

Thoughts on the Western Conference

Mavs-Warriors: I like the Mavs, I like Nowitzki and Cuban and that whole crew (I would've let go of Stackhouse last year, I think you can get younger at that position and not lose much but, hey, they had the best record in the league with him). But they're looking like a regular season juggernaut that just doesn't have it in the post (remember the Mariners a few years back who won 116 games or whatever? The Yankees brushed them aside). Everything the Warriors are doing is working and the Mavs look like a team of Drew Bledsoes out there. And, man, a Suns-Warriors match-up would be killer! 130-120 every night, like the old Alex English/Adrian Dantley/Bernard King/World B. Free days when everybody used to score 110 every night. The Warriors are peaking at the right time and they're getting every lucky break. They can win it all. Not something I thought before this series started but I believe it now.

Suns-Lakers: This Laker team is almost exactly the same as last year, isn't it? The Suns baited them into thinking they could compete by letting them win 3 of the first 4 games in the playoffs last year. The Lakers only picked Vladimir Radmanovic, didn't they? Bra-ha-ha! With all the sweeps in the east, I'm a little surprised the Suns didn't make a little more effort to sweep out the Lakers. They'll finish it in 5 tomorrow night.

Spur-Nuggets: Iverson is always most dangerous in game 1, isn't he? I think the Nuggets roll is over. The Spurs played pretty awful in the first game and it got away from them, looked like maybe an upset was brewing. No. Spurs wrap it up tomorrow night.

Jazz-Rockets: Carlos Boozer is a way better than I ever gave him credit for. His fall away jumper and his left handed drive match up perfectly with Yao Ming (I doubt he torches Duncan the way he torched Yao last night), but he's getting it done in the post-season and that is the point. Deron Williams may be the most underrated player in the whole league. He doesn't have a flashy game or a flashy look but he plays with a quiet confidence and he gets it done. Playing in Utah just does that to guys, doesn't it: they turn out good but nobody notices. I'm amazed the Jazz have gone this far with the disappearance of Kirilenko--dude, what happened to the guy? He was set to be the next superstud of the league and he's fumbling all over the place out there. The Rockets have more firepower up top but the Jazz have more depth, I like them both but I still don't think either one of these teams can beat the Spurs. I suspect the home team will win each game, I'll stick with the Rockets in 7.

One quick note on Randy Moss

He's good on good teams, bad on bad teams. He's another big-ego wide receiver who thinks he's the star of the show and that's exactly the type of athlete that talk show hosts flock to. The media suck-up types flock to the flamboyant speedsteer on the edge, he says something wildly irrelevant with flair and the media loves it! When the fawning talk show hosts all finally stop laughing, they immediately anoint him a 'clubhouse cancer'. (Remember when Freddy Mitchell--Freddy fucking Mitchell!--had the one good game of his whole freakin' life and talked non-stop for a week? And then promptly disappeared because he wasn't actually any good. This is what WR's do, man.)

No, Randy Moss is a sullen crab on teams that can't get him the ball (re: teams that aren't good enough to be helped by a good WR), and he's beloved on teams that can get him the ball. I think he'll go to the Patriots and be just fine. And the Raiders won't be any worse without him because a WR is a luxury, not a necessity. I think this trade was a win-win. (I would've thought he'd be worth more than a 4th round pick, but when you're as bad as the Raiders everything you touch becomes de-valued)

(My God, I don't know how many times I've yelled that at the radio in the last few days! I have a blog so I don't have to yell at the radio any more!)