Monday, April 25, 2022

2021-22 NBA Playoffs (after 4 games)

East

Heat up 3-1 on Hawks

Thought the Hawks might shine out and make this a series but outside of their late comeback in Game Three, the Hawks have been rather lackluster. The Heat are still just warming up but Jimmy Butler looks to be locked in. This series is over and actually should have been over in 4. The Heat have effectively bottled up Trae Young and the Hawks attack just isn't scary right now. 

Celtics up 3-0 on Nets

Man, Durant looks old, Kyrie has been fustigated by this Celtics defense and pour one out for Coach Nash (hardest easy money in the history of the western world). The Nets should've won Game One, but Tatum stole it late and the air went out of the Nets' sails after that. Game Two turned into a Celtics' rout and in Game Three the Nets offense just couldn't get going. They don't make the proper use of Seth Curry (he's in the Tiago Splitter role of being the bail out guy, so he gets a pass at his knees with 2 seconds on the shot clock and the goose egg on his stat line) and why haven't they been able to find any kind of role for Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge? The Celtics D is legit, it is shutting down the vaunted Nets attack and it is making easy buckets at the other end (that the lackluster Nets D is powerless to stop). Once you remove all the hot air, the Brooklyn Nets kinda have nothing going for them. This series is over (though I wouldn't be shocked if the Nets won tonight).

Bucks up 3-1 on Bulls

Bulls had one nice game (an eye-opening W in Milwaukee in Game Two) but seems like that's all they had in them. Even in Game Three when the Bucks were without Khris Middleton, the Bulls just floundered on offense and put up no challenge at all to the Bucks, even though they had just beat them in Game Two. It looked for a moment like the Bucks might get challenged in this series and without Middleton, that offense seemed likely to take a hit, and yet the Bulls reverted back to the team that couldn't be playoff squads all season long. This series is over.

Sixers up 3-1 on Raptors

Embiid has been pretty great, Maxey is blowing up and Harden hasn't been dead weight. Throw in that the Raptors just haven't found their offense (Fred Van Vleet is just not in the zone right now) and this series should probably already be over when it promised to be the most competitive series. Are the Sixers capable of acking up four straight? Oh, absolutely! But the Raptors haven't shown enough offense (Van Vleet out for Game Five makes for an interesting dynamic) to strike any fear in Philly hearts. This series is over. 


West

Suns 2-2 Pelicans

Well well well....what do we have here? It isn't that the Suns have already lost 2 games (to the #9 seed), it's that in their two W's, the Pelicans have looked pretty damn good! Can they win two more? Probably not, but the Suns have lost Devin Booker for the rest of the series and that is not an easy thing to overcome. Chris Paul will get this back on track in Game Five and I wouln't be surprised to see the Suns winding this up in 6 back in New Orleans. But...there is some creeping doubt as this Pelicans team is clearly playing their best basketball of the year. Bradom Ingram is a legit scorer, Jonas Valenciunas presents problems down low and CJ McCollum suddenly looks like the best move of the trade deadline. (Dang, if there best player would maybe think about playing some basketball, then this Pelicans team could actually be kinda dangerous, right?) The series isn't over but it's still hard to imagine the Pelicans winning two of the next three games. 

Grizzlies 2-2 Wolves

Not a surprise that they're tied after 4 games but I am surprised by how brutally awful the Wolves were in their two L's. Both of them were bad bad bad losses and the Grizzlies probably should've snatched Game Four, as well. The Wolves are pretty good when it all comes together but D'Angelo Russell disappears from time to time, Anthony Edwards is not yet ready to take the next step and Karl-Anthony Towns just makes so many dumb mistakes, that I just can't see the Wolves beating anyone--even a green, untested squad like the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have all that they need, they just need to put it all together (and they could still murder-ize the Wolves). The series is tight but I'm sticking with the Grizzlies to pull it out. 

Warriors 3-1 Nuggets

Kudos to the Nuggets for keeping the series alive, but the Warriors are by far the better team. Not even close. The Nuggets had to move heaven and earth and make big plays down the stretch to even have a prayer of pulling out Game Four, its just hard to imagine they can do that three more times. Especially considering that the Warriors are looking good but not great, they've still got a lot of room to get better. This one is over. 

Mavs 2-2 Jazz

The Jazz blew their chance to dominate this series when they failed to win in Game Two (the second straight game without Luka Doncic). The Mavs blew their chance to dominate this series when they failed to finish Game Four, though they had their chance to get up a game winner (and just never could get a good look). The Jazz seem ready to get blown up this summer and the Mavs don't quite know who they are when Luka's not in there. This series is still totally up in the air. I still got the Mavs--but I'm not putting money on 'em!

2022 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st leg

Liverpool 3-1 Benfica

Liverpool was the better team, the more creative team. And when Liverpool got an early goal on a corner, really felt like it was over already. And when they added another before halftime (beautiful pass of the cross into the box), man, there wasn't really anything to watch. But Benfica was able to find the goal in the 49th minute (ehh, the defender just kinda whiffed on the incoming cross and left a lot of goal to shoot at) and suddenly there was enough  of a game to develop some interest. But Liverpool dominated possession and had the defense to keep Benfica off balance throughout. I thought Benfica's keeper actually made a lot of good saves, though the 3rd goal was his fault (came out to make a play, did not make it, open goal for the forward). Liverpool got the big road win and I don't think it was a fluke, I think Liverpool is clearly the better team, I'd be surprised if Benfica is even able to put up much of a fight in the return match. 

Manchester City 1-0 Atletico Madrid

Atletico played some tight D, bunkered in, never got the counter attack they way they wanted, but there was still plenty of good action in this match. De Bruyne was able to slip through one time, finished it, and that was ball game. That description of bunkered D and very little penetration or counter probably sounds like a dull match but not at all. There were a lot of intricate attempts well parried and some breakaway chances, actually an invigorating game considering how rarely either team came near the goal. Looking forward to the 2nd leg of this one. 

Chelsea 1-3 Real Madrid

Man, this match was much more competitive than the score would suggest. Simply put: Real scored their chances and Chelsea didn't. The first goal was a such a lovely finish (header in the box just under the bar) by Benzema after a series of tick-tack passes from midfield. A few minutes Benzema was able to finished another header (going back behind the goalie's momentum) off a long pass into the box--two breathtaking goals so quickly and Chelsea was shook. Both teams moved the ball well and had shots and when Chelsea were able to find the goal right before halftime, felt like we had a game. But early in the 2nd half, Chelsea gave up one of the goofiest goals I've ever seen: the keeper came way out to settle a a long ball that drifted long past the forward, but you could tell keeper didn't know what he wanted to do with the ball, then clearly misjudged how the driving rain had soaked the ground, poohed a soft pass to the defender, who couldn't keep it away from a charging Benzema, who had a relatively simply open-goal from 40 yards out (a true hockey goal). Man, no idea what that keeper was doing, but he had a bad day. Three goals on the road probably pushes Real into the semifinals, but Chelsea played fine, they had chances and perhaps in better weather on the return match, they'll play loose and get to the goal. Tough climb for Chelsea, but this one's not over just yet. 

Villareal 1-0 Bayern Munich

Bayern is a strangely hesitant squad for a blue blood giant of euro football, so I wasn't shocked that Villareal was able to put points on the board on them. The goal was a whipsaw set of quick passes that left the Bayern keeper laying on the ground wondering what just happened. Not long after, Villareal was able to sneak another drifting cross into the goal, but that was called off-side (correct call). But moments like that make the average fan wonder what's up with Bayern. A bit more action in the 2nd half but all pretty similar stuff. Villareal did well to make their one goal stand up. Bayern is gonna be ready for the return match, this one is still up for grabs. 


2nd leg

Real Madrid 2-3 (agg 5-4) Chelsea

Chelsea came out with more intensity than Real Madrid, got an early goal and when they scored again early in the 2nd half, the match that seemed like a walkover was suddenly a nail biter. Real Madrid finally woke up when Chelsea had a goal waived off on replay in the 65th minute and from then on it was a more even contest. When Chelsea went up in the 75th minute, the fire was really lit under Real, who had been strangely sluggish up til then. Rodrygo came off the bench and scored right away off a brilliant finish (off a brilliant pass from Modric) and the game was good fun from then on with both teams have numerous chances. In Extra Time, Real scored right away off a bad giveaway in the defensive half that Vinicius was able to bring up the left wing and pick out Benzema at the penalty spot for the game winner. Fun game! Crazy action but I can't help noticing that Real is good but certainly not unbeatable, as they sorta halfheartedly slog through a game sometimes. 

Bayern Munich 1-1 (agg 1-2) Villareal

Bayern was the better team from the jump, they were getting the ball into the box with ease, only a matter of time before they scored. Villareal looked reasonably spicy on the counter, but they were clearly going to have to work harder than Bayern to get a goal and it felt like Bayern could score multiple goals. Just after halftime, Lewandowski  was the beneficiary of a bad giveaway in the defensive half and caught the keeper in no man's land to doink one off the inside of the post. From there, Bayern looked well on their way to taking this into over time (where they would be the favorite to win). But in the 88th minute, Villareal shook loose on a breakaway and nailed a goal--not an easy shot, excellent touch to skim it away from the keeper's grasp--to silence the crowd. A stunner. People may see Villareal as a fluke semfinalist but they did what they needed to get here and they're gonna be a tough out. 

Atletico Madrid 0-0 (agg 0-1) Manchester City

Grueling game, Atletico was the better team but they just couldn't find the goal and that was that. Atletico peppered the goal and Man City had a coupla nice chances, but neither team got on the board though it felt like either of them could. Looking back on this quarterfinal match up, De Bruyne had 5 seconds of brilliance and that was the whole series. Hey, man, it isn't all about goals, this was the most competitively balanced pairing and both teams played brilliantly. That said, I'm not sure about Man City, I just haven't seen them find a consistent attack. 

Liverpool 3-3 (agg 6-4) Benfica

Fun game! Felt like it was over early and yet the offense just kept coming. Benfica had two more goals called off for offside--and two of their goals were initially called offside and then restored on replay! Man, the 2nd half of this match was pure furious action. Liverpool felt like they had it won when they scored an early goal and then spent the next 10 minutes or so just working Benfica (it looked like no fun to be playing for Benfica for most of the 1st half).  But Benfica got on the board by halftime and the 2nd half as a wide open lollapalooza. And for Liverpool to find the net on two corner kicks just shows how unpredictable this match was. 

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Summer 2022 Pointless NBA Trade Idea

Celtics get PG Donovan Mitchell, SF Juancho Hernangomez; Jazz get G Marcus Smart, G Derrick White, SF Aaron Nesmith, Celtics 1st rd pick and pick swap

Hornets C Rudy Gobert, Jazz 2nd rd pick; Jazz get F Gordon Hayward, F PJ Washington, PG James Bouknight, Hornets 1st rd pick and pick swap

Celtics get a dynamic ball dominant PG to go with Brown and Tatum, and they'd still have Theis and Williams as defensive back stops, Pritchard off the bench and I'd keep Al Horford (that dude's still good). The Celtics would lose some depth (they'll need to fill 2 roster spots), but they'd still have a strong offensive and defensive identity. Losing Smart stings but Mitchell is going to be such an offensive upgrade, this team would be in championship conversation. And they form a good long term core: Mitchell, Williams and Tatum are signed for 4 more years each (making draft picks less valuable or necessary), Brown and Pritchard for 2 more years each. Grant Williams is an RFA that I assume the Celtics will want to keep, while Horford and Hernangomez would be on the way out next summer (though Donovan bestie Eric Paschall should be available for end of the roster money, seems a perfect addition). The Celtics would have a good nucleus for both ends of the court, a young coach that knows what he's doing and a GM that seems as much like family as Danny Ainge (oh yeah: he's with the Jazz now!). If Celtics could get Mitchell for the package I'm laying out, I think they'd take it in a heartbeat. And I think that's actually a pretty good haul for the Jazz. 

Hornets get a premiere defensive presence in the middle that's signed long term (and would be a lot more popular on the East Coast) and should mesh just fine with the LaMelo-Rozier tandem that runs the place. Gobert allows Miles Bridges to take another leap defensively making the Hornets a serious contender in the East, instead of a play-in. It sucks to lose PJ but getting Gobert should remove all regrets. It sucks to lose Bouknight but they were already giving more time to Isaiah Thomas, so he's probably already in change-of-scenery mode. It sucks to lose Hayward, but he was so injury-prone that its almost like he was never there (just like in Boston). Getting Gobert gives so much focus to your defense that now LaMelo and Rozier have even more room to freelance on offense. This move guarantees them a bankable star defender for 4 more years and allows the rest of your core to mature in a whole new way (and adds some buzz as a free agent destination, like how about bringing Malik Monk back?). This makes the Hornets a better team and while every 1st rd pick is valuable to the Hornets, this is a deal worth attaching one to. 

Jazz would move on from their two biggest stars. But since one of them has to go (as they do not play well together at all), why not split the baby and ship both out for the maximum haul. The Jazz aren't gonna want 1st rd picks (oh, they'll want a few of those), they'd rather have long term contracts, they'd rather have star players or (realistically) rotation guys. So those are the types of players I think they'll be looking for when shopping Mitchell and/or Gobert (and I assume they are shopping both and could actually trade both). The deals I laid out would still give them a good team, signed well into the future, with a bevy of tradeable contracts and while there's enough to continuity to carry forth, I think its a new enough roster that a new coach (*) could craft something totally new. The opening day roster would look like:

PG Mike Conley, SG Marcus Smart, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Bojan Bagdonivic, C PJ Washington

PG Derrick White, PG James Bouknight, SG Jordan Clarkson, SG Nikeal Alexander-Walker, SF Aaron Nesmith, SF Royce O'Neal, PF Rudy Gay, C Udoka Azuibuke

Conley, Bogdanovic, Clarkson, Gay, O'Neal provide stability and continuity, a solid collection of veterans to keep the team humming along. Smart and White are good rotation guys that will play hard, set the tone defensively and become fan favorites. Hayward is already a fan favorite, this is the one fanbase that wouldn't think twice about paying Hayward a shit ton of money. Bouknight and Nesmith are young guys to develop. Washington, Azuibuke, and Alexander-Walker would need to be re-signed next summer, so they've each got a year to earn that next contract (and they're on the clock right away). The two extra 1st rd picks are not likely to be really good picks (top-10 protected, at least, I'd assume) but the Jazz need every talented body they can find (and extra picks do offer a little more wheeling and dealing on draft night). 

Is that a playoff team in the West? They'd be a pain in the ass. If you think you're going into SLC on a Tuesday night and picking up a free W, I'd you be wrong. (**)

I think the Celtics would be better with Mitchell in place of Smart, White and Nesmith. I think the Hornets would be better with Gobert in place of Washington, Hayward and Bouknight. I think the improvements in the Celtics and Hornets would merit giving up a 1st round pick (each) to facilitate these roster moves. 

Are the Jazz better without Mitchell and Gobert? Are they better with Smart, Hayward, White, Washington, Bouknight, Nesmith and 2 1st-rounders? Probably not. But they would have cost assurance built around what I think would be an entertaining team (a fun team to root for). Also, a new coach with the new team brings a whole new vibe around what will be a hard working, pain in the ass squad. 

For the Jazz, either Mitchell or Gobert has to go. Picking which one will not be easy or pleasant. They're assaying the league for offers, I think these offers are realistic and leave Utah with a solid, lovable, rather inexpensive roster that will be a tough out in the West right away. I know: star power in more fun, but more star power just becomes more drama. SLC is a town that would be better served by going for lunch pail basketball lifers that will bust ass for the home fans. Utah has more of a college than a pro vibe, they should build a different kind of team.  




(*) Oh, it is worth noting that this rebuild does not strike me as what Coach Quin Snyder signed on for, so at this point I think it would be mutually beneficial to part ways. Snyder is at a point in his coaching career that does not match the phase the Jazz would be going into with these moves I'm describing. If he wanted to stay, that'd be great, but I don't think he'd want that. So I'd let him walk, pay him handsomely, pat him on the back at the press conference and then I'd go hire Frank Vogel. 

I've long thought about the Orlando Magic that they would be better served by banking on a coach rather than trying to be a free agent destination (for some reason Orlando is NBA poison) and what good is it to be a lottery pick factory if you don't have the culture, the routine, to properly develop the talent? I think the Utah Jazz are in the same boat: free agents don't wanna go but the fanbase is supportive, so do it Pittsburgh Steelers style and just keep bringing the same coach back every year. If Quin Snyder is down with that, then I'd keep Snyder and let him do his thing forever; I'm just assuming that Snyder has had as much success as he thinks he can have in SLC and is probably looking at other spots (San Antonio, for instance, another example of the kinda place that might keep him around for 20 years).

(**) Two summers ago, OKC very briefly had Ricky Rubio, Steven Adams and Al Horford all at the same time. I know that doesn't win a lot of games but I still wanted to see those guys play together. 

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

2021-22 NBA Playoffs (Predictions)

Play-in games

(East) I'll take Nets over Cavs; Hawks over Hornets; Hawks over Cavs

(West) I'll take Wolves over Clippers; Spurs over Pelicans; Clippers over Spurs

1st Round

(East) I'll take Heat over Hawks in 7; Celtics over Nets in 7; Bucks over Bulls in 5; Raptors over Sixers in 7

(West) I'll take Suns over Clippers in 6; Grizzlies over Wolves in 7; Warriors over Nuggets in 7; Mavs over Jazz in 6

2nd Round

(East) I'll take Heat over Raptors in 7; Bucks over Celtics in 7

(West) Suns over Mavs in 6; Warriors over Grizzlies in 6

Conference Championship

(East) Bucks over Heat in 6; Warriors over Suns in 6

NBA Finals

Bucks over Warriors in 7


2021-22 NBA (Regular Season Awards)

MVP

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Jokic has been one of my favorite players to watch since his Rook season, the way he controls the action from beginning to end is like no one I've seen since Magic. He's Westbrook except that he actually cares about winning and he's a much better playmaker. To drag this team to 6th in the West without Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr., and to be so damned entertaining all the while, yeah, man, he's got my vote. And when you look at the advanced stats, it is clearly Jokic #1 and Giannis #2, then you can argue over #3. Both of those dudes are so awesome and so in control of their teams and so effective, that it's hard to see anyone other Jokic or Giannis as MVP. (Shit, you know what else? I had Jokic, Giannis and Embiid way higher on my DPOY list than I would've thought, too)

1st team (2 ballhandlers, 2 big guys, 1 wild card)

Luka Doncic (Mavs), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Joel Embiid (Sixers)

2nd:

Trae Young (Hawks), Ja Morant (Grizzlies), Kevin Durant (Nets), Lebron James (Lakers), Karl-Anthony Towns (Wolves)

3rd:

Dejounte Murray (Spurs), Devin Booker (Suns), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Paskal Siakam (Raptors), Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

(Jimmy Butler (Heat), Steph Curry (Warriors), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz),  were my last three out)


Rookie of the Year

Evan Mobley (Cavs)

Holy balls, this one was such a no-brainer for the first 6 months of the season that I found myself unexpectedly discombobulated trying to pick a winner. My typical rational is this: ROY is a forward-looking award not an award based on the actual rookie season because rookies virtually never make enough of a worthwhile difference; for example: I went with Joel Embiid (Sixers) over Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks) because it was plain to me that Embiid was clearly the better prospect going forward even though Brogdon clearly had the better rookie year. 

But the way Evan Mobley (Cavs) impacted his squad on Day One was breathtaking and it just seemed to me plainly obvious that he was your ROY. But, wait, didn't you just say it was a future-looking award? What difference does Day One make? Typically, yes. But Mobley had an impact that rookies virtually never have. He took a team that I thought wouldn't have a chance at the play-in tourney and had them firmly in the top 6 for most of the season--as a ROOKIE! Mobley was the cornerstone of a play-in team as a rookie! And was, I'd say, the team's MVP throughout the season--a playoff team! So, yeah, I ditched my normal criteria of future projection because he was that good right away. And until about March 1, I didn't think twice about that rationale and just figured the ROY race was over.

But, heading into the last part of the regular season it was hard to ignore the impact Scottie Barnes (Raptors) was having on that Raptor rotation just as they were making a playoff push. But the Raptors are a better team with a better culture than the Cavs, so even though the Raptors are rising and the Cavs are fading, considering pre-season projections, the Cavs are still vastly outperforming expectations. So has Barnes been as impactful for his team as Mobley has been for his? Well, probably not, but, man, Barnes is really good, dude! And his team is peaking at the right time, so I can totally see picking Barnes over Mobley.

And, oh by the way, I wouldn't begrudge anyone voting for Cade Cunningham (Pistons) because he strikes me as possibly the best looking future prospect going forward--which is typically my rationale. Took him a little while to get going and his team is pretty awful, but, man, Cunningham is good and has room to get a lot better and--like Mobley--is already the clear MVP of his team. So while I have Cunningham 2nd on my list, I can see him getting him 1st place votes, too, because he has to do even more for his crappy team than Mobley or Barnes were expected to give their teams. And Cade, I think, still has the most upside of any of this year's class--Cade's gonna get better. 

And, oh by the way, pound for pound Franz Wagner (Magic) has put up eye-popping numbers and been his team's MVP, as well. Tough to put Wagner ahead of Barnes or Mobley but he's had a helluva rookie year and absolutely deserves admiration. 

And, oh by the way, Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors) is another one with room to get better and could possibly end up being the most dominant player of this class. His situation is utterly unique so his contribution is harder to evaluate. Barnes stepped into a functioning rotation and played like a pro right away, Mobley was the bedrock that made a (so-so) rotation into playoff-caliber, Cunningham is carrying his (crappy) rotation, Wagner is the finest contributor in his (crappy) rotation....Kuminga, then, is a piecemeal contributor to an up and down rotation (potential Champion at its best, play-in team at its worst). But Kuminga is definitely the cornerstone of the future (Warriors fan, aren't you glad they didn't trade him for, say, Caris LaVert?) and still has as much upside as anyone. 

And, oh by the way, Jalen Green (Rockets) has been putting up big numbers lately, finishing the season strong and actually developing some promising habits on a team full of rookies. 

And, oh by the way, this was a really great rookie class, man. Teams are playing these guys and relying on them: 22 rookies played over 1000 minutes and 20 rookies averaged 20mins/game (playing at least 900 minutes). I came up with 4 that were actually arguably the MVPs of their team already: Cunningham, Mobley, Green, and Wagner. 

And, oh by the way, there are a ton of rookies that didn't get much play that I'm still totally in on and others that played their way into rotations and deserve to be there: James Bouknight (Hornets), Trendon Watford (Blazers), Quinton Grimes (Knicks), JT Thor (Hornets), Austin Reaves (Lakers), BJ Boston (Clippers), Josh Primo (Spurs), Kessler Edwards (Nets), Jalen Johnson (Hawks), Moses Moody (Warriors), Dalano Banton (Raptors), Isaiah Jackson (Pacers), Tre Mann (Thunder), Usman Garuba (Rockets), Cam Thomas (Nets), Isaiah Jackson (Pacers), Keon Johnson (Blazers), Josh Christopher (Rockets), Chris Duarte--and there are more!--are all still fascinating prospects with room to grow.

I never mentioned Ayo Dosunmu (Bulls) or Herb Jones (Pelicans), who are actually kinda great! Or Bones Hyland (Nuggets), Davion Mitchel (Kings), Corey Kispert (Wizards), all of whom had good seasons. And I love Josh Giddey (Thunder)! And I'm still in on Jalen Suggs (Magic) who found himself crowded out at his position by the emergence of Cole Anthony and had his rookie thunder stolen by Wagner; but he is not a bust (though he might need to move on from Orlando). 

(Okay, I'll say it....this is the Coronavirus Class. What do we make of the fact that, for the most part, these guys didn't even really get the NCAA year they normally would've had? Remember that Duke and Kentucky, among others, both sucked last year, how does that throw off 1) the development of these players and 2) our perception of these players? The 2020 draft class didn't get their NCAA tourney, but the 2021 class played a screwed-up season, so will these two classes just be aberrations or....are changes coming?)

I'll take Evan Mobley (Cavs) for ROY because I think his contribution to his team was bigger and better this year than any other rookie even though the Cavs faded down the stretch. After that, I'll go Cade Cunnigham (Pistons), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors), Franz Wagner (Magic), Herb Jones (Pelicans),  Jalen Green (Rockets), Josh Giddey (Thunder) Davion Mitchell (Kings), Ayo Dosunmo (Bulls). A great class, teams are already looking 7-8 years down the line to measure up this class's contract extensions. 


6th Man of the Year

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Top 5 in Minutes Played, FGA (44% overall, 40% from 3P), FTA (87%), Assists (with a nice, not great, asst:to) and was the overall leading scorer among 6th Man candidates. I'd say he's pretty clearly the best off the bench this season. 

2) Malik Monk (Lakers), 3) Terrence Mann (Clippers), 4) Alperen Sengun (Rockets), 5) Carmelo Anthony (Lakers)

That's right: two of my top five were from the Lakers, which is just further evidence that the problem with the Lakers was that Russell Westbrook played way too much. 

I got it down to 16 guys but then a handful kept disappointing with their numbers: Jordan Clarkson (Jazz), Buddy Hield (Kings/Pacers), Davion Mitchell (Kings), Cam Johnson (Suns), Corey Kispert (Wizards)--which is not to say these guys had bad years. Not at all, they were the 6th men of their teams and what each team needs off the bench is unique and doesn't necessarily scale well across the whole league. That said, it was easier to separate the number-getters from the non-number-getters.

But somebody is gonna steal Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and feel pretty great about that signing (or Devin Vassell (Spurs) or Immanuel Quickley (Knicks)). And don't be surprised if someone makes the big balls move for Kevin Love (Cavs) this summer and sells hard on his 6th Man qualities at the press conference. 


Defensive Player of the Year

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Yeah, man, I was as surprised as you. Jokic led the league in Rebounds (and Def Rebounds), was 8th in Steals + Blocks (9th in Steals, 20th in Blocks), was 6th in Assists (while finishing with fewer turnovers than 3 of the assist leaders ahead of him), was 8th in FGA and shot 58% (by far better than anyone else with a 1000 FGA). This guy does everything for his team. Why do you keep bringing up offensive stats? Because just as defense leads to offense, offense leads to defense and Jokic's ability to get good shots for himself and his teammates is the greatest roadblock to the other team scoring--and Jokic was among the league leaders in Steals, Blocks and Rebounds, while tying for 1st (with Karl-Anthony Town) in Minutes Played at his position and still finishing outside of the top ten (at his position) in personal fouls. Jokic moves the ball so efficiently at the offensive end and contributes at the other end...I dunno what to tell you, man, Jokic is so fucking impressive.  

I kinda thought I'd be going with Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies), who crushed the rest of the league in Blocks and Steals + Blocks, which are good stats for defense. But I went a little deeper and actually he is not a notable rebounder (fewer rebounds this year than Lebron James) and his asst:to is abysmal. So what, you ask? Well, it's incumbent on each player to turn possessions into good FGA and not turnovers and you would hope a superior defensive minded player would take that to heart. But Jackson's offense is strangely inefficient and I think that reflects weirdly on a guy that would seem to be a defensive super star.

Yeah, I get the Marcus Smart buzz, he is a great perimeter defender, but I'm not sure he's even the best defender on his team (ahem, Robert Williams has turned into a totally new guy back there). And for all the talk about there being no talk about Marcus Smart, there was even less buzz about the lack of buzz for Tyrese Haliburton (Kings/Pacers), who quietly had a helluva nice year: more Steals and Blocks than Smart, more FTA at a better %, more Off Rebounds, Def Rebounds and Total Rebounds and a superior asst:to, as well. So who was the badass perimeter defender that didn't get enough credit this year?

I worked this down to 43 candidates and of my top 20, Rudy Gobert (and Fred Van Vleet) had the least amount of games played. Normally I would be impressed at such great stats in so few games, but I can't help feeling like the night-in/night-out-ness of defense is a pretty important quality for a great defender. You gotta play more games to make your presence deeper. So while Gobert had a typically fine season, I didn't feel like he stacked up to the competition quite as well this year. 

Also, I'm getting a little tired of the much maligning of Robert Covington (Clippers), the only man to be in the top 12 in both Steals and Blocks (2nd in Steals + Blocks) and his asst:to is not bad and he shot 38% from 3. A pretty good defender that people have pretty much given up on and I don't know why. 

I don't really know how to quantify DPOY (except that I was unexpectedly blown away by Jokic). But, my gut, is Mitchell Robinson (Knicks), Robert Williams (Celtics), Herb Jones (Pelicans), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Marcus Smart (Celtics), Jaren Jackson Jr (Grizzlies), Rudy Gobert (Jazz), and Dejounte Murray (Spurs) are something like the 10 best defenders in the NBA this year. 


Coach of the Year

Monty Williams (Suns)

Yes, this is the returning Western Conference champs, anchored by a no-nonsense PG (Paul), a blistering scorer (Booker), and a fine-tuned supporting cast--what's so hard about that? To me, it was how quietly and calmly they've destroyed everyone all year long. I had my doubts about this team's success last year--I mean, they cruised through the playoffs with no Anthony Davis, Jamal Murray or Kawhi Leonard (...but, then again....none of those guys are playing this year either) and then blew a 2-0 lead in the Finals. To me last year's playoff run was proof that this team couldn't win in the post-season--and maybe they can't! Maybe they are a regular season juggernaut that crumbles in series play--but to come back and casually dominate the league was a fuckin' work of art. Coach Williams deserves a lot of the credit keeping this team from falling apart after a disastrous start of the season, brutal contract negotiations with Ayton and the owner under a cloud of investigation all season long. Other teams endured far less and still didn't come together the way the Suns have because the Suns know who they are every single day. I think that's coaching more than anything else. 

Also in the West, I thought Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Jason Kidd (Mavs) and Steve Kerr (Warriors) all had noteworthy seasons, as well. 

Ime Udoka (Celtics) 

The Celtics kinda sucked at the start of the season and it felt like it was going to be another disappointing campaign in Beantown. Then around January 1, this team fell into a defensive system that started strangling the opposition and from then on, they've been pretty amazing. I was skeptical, but, man, they crush teams. They discombobulate teams, they keep everyone off-balance, I really can't remember anything like it my NBA watching years. The NBA is typically about offense because that's where the sexy stats are, and while people give lip service to defense (it wins championships, I'm told), only dudes that can't score ever really embraced it. But this Celtics team has power at both ends and the D has unleashed the offense. The Celtics are really balling right now, they're gonna be a tough out in the playoffs and considering that the roster hasn't changed much over the years, the difference is Coach Udoka getting his guys to buy in. Great regular season, I think they'll make a deep run in the playoffs (we'll see). 

Also in the East, I thought JB Bickerstaff (Cavs), Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Nick Nurse (Raptors), and Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) had great seasons, too. 


Executive of the Year 

Bob Myers (Warriors)

I found it tougher than I thought it would be to pick a top exec in the West because most of the teams didn't really make any moves this year and in the end I decided that Warriors didn't make any moves better than everyone else. I didn't care much for the Grizzlies 2021 draft pick, I didn't care for the Suns creating havoc with Deandre Ayton and giving up on Jalen Smith (their 2020 draft pick), I didn't care for the Nuggets' one move (Bryn Forbes), and the Jazz not making big moves was probably a mistake for them. Looking around the West, I kinda like the Rockets and Thunder youth movements and the Spurs (nice supporting cast that just needs a star), but am I supposed to get excited about the Mavs giving up on Porzingis? Or the Blazers shipping out CJ McCollum (with an eye on shipping out Dame Lillard next)? Or the Kings swapping Tyrese Halliburton for Domantas Sabonis? Or the Pelicans never being able to coax Zion to come play basketball? Are we supposed to reward the Clippers and Wolves for not doing anything really stupid? (And, well, obviously the Lakers come in dead last in this metric) Do you see what I mean? The Warriors did nothing--could've traded away Wiseman or Kuminga or Moody or moved on from Wiggins--and that turned out to be the best (non) move because that team was already (sorta) set up for success. No moves was good moves (well, except for Utah). 

Chad Buchanan (Pacers)

Yeah, seems weird to go for a non-playoff team here but the Pacers got Tyrese Halliburton and Buddy Hield (trade bait for this summer) for a guy they had to trade anyway (Domantas Sabonis), so they ended up getting a cornerstone PG for a dead weight contract and that's a great move. At best, it felt like everyone else was just putting out fires: Celtics had to move on from Denis Shroeder, the Knicks had to move on from Kemba Walker, the Sixers had to move on from Ben Simmons, the Nets had to move on from James Harden, while the Hawks and Hornets struggled to win with the best rosters either of them have had in years. The Bulls made some nice moves but their inability to beat good teams is kinda disturbing (seems like the Bulls are the natural winners of this award and, yet....are they?). The Wizards stepped up to take the next gamble on Porzingis. The Heat and the Bucks did well to not do much, while the Raptors drafted well and then refrained from doing much else. The Pistons did well to steal Marvin Bagley for nothing and the Magic did well to....well, they stayed out of the Don't Say Gay controversy, so....there's that. The Cavs drafted their guy last summer and made a raft of unexpectedly weird maneuvers to navigate their injuries and they deserve some credit. But it was the Pacers that most clearly turned a bad situation into a good one and are still looking at a top-10 pick, so I'm going with the 13th best team in the East.

Monday, April 11, 2022

2022 Masters

Scottie Scheffler -10, Rory McIlroy -7, Shane Lowry/Cam Smith -5, Collin Morikawa -4

Thursday was kinda easy-going, everyone was watching Tiger and no one really stood out on day #1. Then on Friday, just as I thinking to myself, 'Well, no one is gonna run away with it this year', that was right about the time that Scheffler went hognutty on the back nine and took a stranglehold on the lead for the rest of the weekend. A hell of a performance: while everyone else was figuring out the wind and the greens, Scheffler was just making plays. 

Saturday was all about wind and the tightness around the holes (man, can't remember so many near-miss putts that just skittered over the hole). Scheffler was able to withstand the elements, hold his big lead and that was exactly the right play. Going into Sunday, everyone was gonna need Scheffler to seriously falter to have a shot at a win, but a top-5 finish was on the table for a lot of dudes. Turned out to be McIlroy going -8 on the final day to streak up the board (though at no point was he a real threat to Scheffler). 

Two holes on Sunday made the difference. On #3, Scheffler and Smith both yanked the ball into the woods, then both just missed catching the green and rolled back down the hill right next to each other. Scheffler chipped in for bird, Smith two-putted for bogey. That was a major tone-setter early on.

Then on #12, Smith (like so many before him) went for the big play on Amen Corner, went in the drink, dropped a +3 and that was it for Smith. Game effort, for the most part Smith hung with Scheffler but couldn't make the big move on the back nine. I was impressed with Smith almost as Scheffler, I expect both of those dudes to have monstrous seasons.

The big story (sorry, Scheffler) was the return of Tiger Woods. He played damn good on Thursday, kinda sucked on Friday, was not bad on Saturday and then kinda sucked again on Sunday. He was clearly laboring, but it was impressive the way he gutted out a tough set. He wanted to play four rounds and he did it and the audience loved every second of his performance. He limped a lot, dipped his shoulder on his drive and never looked dangerous to win anything, but he's gonna slip right into the Arnie/Jack fan favorite role that Golf features so prominently. (So....Tiger will just be playing the Majors from now on, right?)

Another element overshadowing Scheffler's coming out party was a load of really good highlights. This one was my fave of the final round, McIlroy and Morikawa both chipping for birds on the 18th.


I love the Masters, pretty much the only golf I watch all year, the way it nestles between March Madness and the NBA playoffs is perfect early spring comfort food. Some might be disappointed that Scheffler so firmly clamped down this touney, but I don't mind a dominant performance--dude was awesome! Ice cold, knocking down shots, recovered from mistakes very well, Scheffler did it all, a great performance. 

Saturday, April 9, 2022

2022 Final Four & Championship

Games I watched:

(8) North Carolina 81-77 (2) Duke
Ohhhhhhhhh! What a pleasure to watch! Hell, yeah, I even left my house and went to the local Regal Beagle because I had to see this one. I'm a total sports nerd, watch sports of some kind just about every day, but it's been a while since I've felt this level of anticipation for a game. And the Tarheels did not let me down. I come not to praise Coach K but to bury him. (*) I would've preferred watching him lose to Kentucky, but, hey, a 2-game losing streak to UNC when he's got a team of 5 lottery picks was schadenfreude enough for me. As for this game, it was tight all the way through, Duke had moments when it looked like they might pull away but that never lasted long. UNC had a nice run right at the beginning of the 2nd half and though they weren't able to build a lead and hold it, it was enough to sustain them down to the final minute. And in the end, well, UNC got hot and Duke went cold. So long, Coach K, glad to see ya go (**). 

Other results:
(2) Villanova 65-81 (1) Kansas
Kansas scored the first 10 points and that was pretty much it, they carried a double digit lead for most of the rest of the game. When Villanova almost kinda came close to making a run, KU shut 'em down and closed it out. This Kansas team is strange: there is nothing dominant about them at all, this is not one of the more talented Jayhawk squads and there's cloud hanging over them (re: they're not likely to be allowed into next year's tourney). But they play good team defense and shoot well and they persevere, which has carried them all the way to the Final where they are the favorite (and were my pick to win it all). Nova made a good run, but this was not a classic Nova team by any means, either. Weird year in college b-ball, kinda makes sense that the semifinal was blue bloods, I reckon. 

The Final:
(8) North Carolina 69-72 (1) Kansas
Kinda bittersweet as a Kentucky fan: the Wildcats whomped the shit out of both of these teams this year, but they're here and the Wildcats aren't. To be fair: UNC is a totally different team now and KU just had a bad shooting night. (Oh, and on the Ladies' side, dominant champion South Carolina suffered only two losses all year long, the last one being to Kentucky...damn, so close and yet neither the boys nor the girls went deep this year)
Despite a 15 point lead at the half, the Tarheels could not keep the momentum going and the Jayhawks steadily pounded away and finished it off even after some dubious play down the stretch. Hey, I picked 'em to win so I can't be shocked that Kansas finished the tourney strong, but I still think this is one of the weirder champions after one of the weirder seasons that I can remember. 




(*) Blogspot wouldn't let me publish this post initially. Yes, I expressed my lifelong disdain for Duke but I wasn't in any way advocating any harm to anything Duke-related. But, well, I did perhaps go a little far in expressing a similar disdain for Bobby Knight and, yes, well, there was an anecdote that was probably worthy of being excised (all the darlings come and go). So, a coupla days later, I gotta say kudos to you, Blogspot. You were (probably) right and I was (probably) wrong but hey, man, college sports just brings it out of me in ways that the rest of planet Earth does not. Thank you, Blogspot, for curbing my weaker tendencies.
(**) Here's how I will always remember Coach K and his dukies.