Yes, I'm hypersensitive to the subject, I can't help it. John Calipari is back in the NBA buzz with the reports that the Kings will fire George Karl any day now, temporarily replace him with Nancy Lieberman and then make a big push for Calipari in the off-season. I can definitely see Karl getting run, Lieberman as an interim sounds warm and fuzzy enough, no way Calipari takes that job.
Listen: at this point in his life Calipari wants to win more than anything else. In the long run wins will bring more money so money can't be that much of an enticement. Calipari can win at Kentucky while maintaining tight-fisted control over every detail, whereas the Kings will be a soul-swallowing grind from day one with very little chance of actually winning games in the West. He didn't jump at the chance of coaching Durant and Westbrook, why would he go to the Kings?
Would he be interested in coaching the Wolves? That one seems more enticing to me but I'm not sure he's up for Minnesota living and they are still a year or two away from being really relevant in the West. How about the Rockets? Harden is a massive star to build around but he's also aloof and weird (and has a troubling Kardashian habit). How about the Lakers? Unless there's some serious free agent action next summer, I think its still too early for Cal to think about that gig. How about the Cavs? Bingo! There's a roster that guarantees success, the pay will be tip-top and Cal wouldn't be offended or worried about Lebron's backstage dominance.
Will Calipari eventually go back to the NBA? Maybe, but he's not jumping for a bunch of money, he'll only go to a place where he can win some games and get some love. The Kings? Nope, nuh bruh, no way, not happening, don't care how much money is on the table.
Friday, November 20, 2015
Coach of the Year
Kevin McHale has officially lost his chance at winning Coach of the Year after getting bounced in Houston for a 4-7 start. The Rockets reshuffled some things in the off-season, a slow start isn't necessarily unexpected, but the defense was abysmal, there's no leadership on the floor (telling ya: Harden and Howard are the two flakiest big stars in the league) and they've been flat pummeled a few times already. All of that adds up to a change getting made and its too early to start making trades so the coach is the fall guy.
Initially the buzz was that this firing was unfair because the team's bad start wasn't really his fault. He wasn't on my list of hot seat coaches this pre-season but he was on my list last year. McHale wasn't underrated this year, he was overrated last year: the Rockets overachieved last year and McHale got too much praise. We see this all the time (especially in football): a team makes the playoffs and the bad coach doesn't get fired because he suddenly looks competent. The team needs a breath of fresh air, not sure young Mr. Bickerstaff is the guy but I don't have any problem with McHale getting run out.
Is Bickerstaff the man of the future? Is Thibodeau the man for this team going forward? (I doubt it but his name will be brought up, I guarantee)
Initially the buzz was that this firing was unfair because the team's bad start wasn't really his fault. He wasn't on my list of hot seat coaches this pre-season but he was on my list last year. McHale wasn't underrated this year, he was overrated last year: the Rockets overachieved last year and McHale got too much praise. We see this all the time (especially in football): a team makes the playoffs and the bad coach doesn't get fired because he suddenly looks competent. The team needs a breath of fresh air, not sure young Mr. Bickerstaff is the guy but I don't have any problem with McHale getting run out.
Is Bickerstaff the man of the future? Is Thibodeau the man for this team going forward? (I doubt it but his name will be brought up, I guarantee)
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Pointless Trade Idea
Grizzlies get Kevin Martin (2 yrs/$14.3m (next year player option), Shabazz Muhammad (2 yrs/$5.1m); Wolves get Jeff Green (1 yr/$9.5m), James Ennis (2 yrs/$1.8m), a 2016 2nd round pick.
Watching the Wolves, I can't help thinking that Kevin Martin is just in the way of the maturation process for the young guys, he's not (yet) the type of veteran that wants to coach young players. He's still a decent scorer off the bench and if the Wolves think they can make the playoffs (not so crazy, those last two spots will have a lot of competition), perhaps holding on to Martin is the proper move. But a confident scorer off the bench is exactly what the Grizzlies need and exactly what they don't get from Jeff Green. Muhammad, too, is a conscious-free shooting machine, not exactly money with the shot but the kind of guy that should take to the hunker-down mentality of the Grizzlies. If Muhammad is gonna make it in the NBA, I don't think its in Minnesota, it could be in Memphis, where the do-your-job ethic might make a for-real player out of him.
Watching the Grizzlies, I can't help thinking Jeff Green is soooooo not what they need. Every once in a while he shines out but for the most part he hides from responsibility, which just doesn't match the rest of that team. In Minnesota, he would be in a position where he can let the game come to him without much pressure and every now and then can have a hero game. Ennis adds to the youth movement but comes with a little more intensity, he's had moments but he's also been bounced around. I wouldn't anticipate him getting big minutes in Minnesota but he also wouldn't have the baggage of Muhammad.
The Wolves shed 2 years of Martin and Muhammad for 1 year of Green and a flyer on another young (cheap) player in Ennis. This year for the Wolves is about playing time for Towns, Wiggins, Payne, Bjelica and LaVine; Martin gets in the way and increasingly Muhammad looks like the odd man out. The Grizzlies add one reliable scoring vet and an intriguing young player to add to the core of a solid playoff squad while giving up only a maddening vet and a youngster that wasn't gonna play anyway. The Grizzlies are taking on more reward than risk as Martin is still better than Green and Muhammad could be good; the Wolves are really just clearing the decks for this year and next. For that reason I'd suggest the Grizzlies throw in a 2nd round pick as well: Martin is bigger help now than Green, Muhammad has more potential than Ennis. Again, though, these two teams might be fighting each other for a playoff spot so this deal only makes sense when the Wolves have decided that the playoffs this year is out of reach. Come February this could be a do-able deal.
Watching the Wolves, I can't help thinking that Kevin Martin is just in the way of the maturation process for the young guys, he's not (yet) the type of veteran that wants to coach young players. He's still a decent scorer off the bench and if the Wolves think they can make the playoffs (not so crazy, those last two spots will have a lot of competition), perhaps holding on to Martin is the proper move. But a confident scorer off the bench is exactly what the Grizzlies need and exactly what they don't get from Jeff Green. Muhammad, too, is a conscious-free shooting machine, not exactly money with the shot but the kind of guy that should take to the hunker-down mentality of the Grizzlies. If Muhammad is gonna make it in the NBA, I don't think its in Minnesota, it could be in Memphis, where the do-your-job ethic might make a for-real player out of him.
Watching the Grizzlies, I can't help thinking Jeff Green is soooooo not what they need. Every once in a while he shines out but for the most part he hides from responsibility, which just doesn't match the rest of that team. In Minnesota, he would be in a position where he can let the game come to him without much pressure and every now and then can have a hero game. Ennis adds to the youth movement but comes with a little more intensity, he's had moments but he's also been bounced around. I wouldn't anticipate him getting big minutes in Minnesota but he also wouldn't have the baggage of Muhammad.
The Wolves shed 2 years of Martin and Muhammad for 1 year of Green and a flyer on another young (cheap) player in Ennis. This year for the Wolves is about playing time for Towns, Wiggins, Payne, Bjelica and LaVine; Martin gets in the way and increasingly Muhammad looks like the odd man out. The Grizzlies add one reliable scoring vet and an intriguing young player to add to the core of a solid playoff squad while giving up only a maddening vet and a youngster that wasn't gonna play anyway. The Grizzlies are taking on more reward than risk as Martin is still better than Green and Muhammad could be good; the Wolves are really just clearing the decks for this year and next. For that reason I'd suggest the Grizzlies throw in a 2nd round pick as well: Martin is bigger help now than Green, Muhammad has more potential than Ennis. Again, though, these two teams might be fighting each other for a playoff spot so this deal only makes sense when the Wolves have decided that the playoffs this year is out of reach. Come February this could be a do-able deal.
NBA Playoff Predictions
Warriors over Suns in 4
Rockets over Pelicans in 5
Thunder over Grizzlies in 6
Spurs over Clippers in 7
Bulls over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Bucks in 4
Heat over Raptors in 6
Hawks over Wizards in 7
Spurs over Warriors in 7
Thunder over Rockets in 7
Bulls over Hawks in 7
Cavs over Heat in 7
Spurs over Thunder in 7
Cavs over Bulls in 6
Spurs over Cavs in 7
Looking back over that I just picked the Spurs to beat the Clippers, Warriors, Thunder and Cavs in the some run. Shit, man, I don't think I even believe that is possible. But I like the new-look Spurs as much as ever and if they're gonna win, its gonna be tough. Man, I got a lot of game 7's in there, shaping up to be a brilliant post-season.
Rockets over Pelicans in 5
Thunder over Grizzlies in 6
Spurs over Clippers in 7
Bulls over Celtics in 6
Cavs over Bucks in 4
Heat over Raptors in 6
Hawks over Wizards in 7
Spurs over Warriors in 7
Thunder over Rockets in 7
Bulls over Hawks in 7
Cavs over Heat in 7
Spurs over Thunder in 7
Cavs over Bulls in 6
Spurs over Cavs in 7
Looking back over that I just picked the Spurs to beat the Clippers, Warriors, Thunder and Cavs in the some run. Shit, man, I don't think I even believe that is possible. But I like the new-look Spurs as much as ever and if they're gonna win, its gonna be tough. Man, I got a lot of game 7's in there, shaping up to be a brilliant post-season.
NBA Bric-a-Brac
Bulls pick up extensions on Tony Snell and Doug McDermott. Good moves, I like both of those guys and locking them up now just lets everybody knows what's up.
Raptors pick up extension on Terrence Ross. Ross is part of the show in Toronto, this is a predictable move as letting him go would probably be a mistake.
Hornets pick up extension on Jeremy Lamb. Lamb has yet to do anything in the League but the Hornets think they can give him the opportunity he needs. They shipped out Noah Vonleh (we'll see if PJ Hairston is the next one gone) so I guess the rookie scale money was available for a Lamb experiment. I still think the Hornets are a middling squad, not sure Lamb is an upgrade but with MKG injured he'll get time.
Sixers sign Phil Pressey. Considering how young (re: cheap) the Sixers lineup is, Pressey steps in as the grizzled veteran though he's barely played a minute in this League. I reckon he'll get time to play and since the Sixers are always looking for somebody....well....Pressey is somebody I guess.
Nuggets waive Erick Green, sign Kostas Papanikolau. During the summer the Nuggets waived Papanikolau to make room for Green, so I guess it makes sense that Papanikolau is in now that Green is out. I thought Papanikolau played reasonably well in his rookie season in Houston, not a great player but a reliable professional that can knock down some 3's. If he can get used to the altitude of Denver, he'll get some run on what I think is the worst team in the West.
Rockets waive Chuck Hayes. I gotta say as a Kentucky fan, Hayes is one of the more beloved players in recent Big Blue history and while he's long past his limited prime, I intuit that he is a beloved player in the NBA as well. He's a reliable vet, a locker room guy, soon to embark on a coaching career, I'd think. On a crowded Rocket roster there's probably little need for him but for a young team (Pelicans, Bucks, Wolves, for example), he can be a positive force from the end of the bench.
Pelicans sign Jimmer Fredette for the rest of the year. The Pelicans need all kinds of scoring, Fredette can be (I think) a decent scorer off the bench and with the run of injuries they've already suffered, I reckon Fredette can get some play. If he scores, he'll stay out there; if not, he'll be back to the D-League (#1 pick in the D-League draft this year).
Heat trade Mario Chalmers, James Ennis to Grizzlies for Beno Udrih, Jarnell Stokes. Good deal for the Heat, don't really understand what the Grizzlies get out of this. The Heat get a slight upgrade at backup PG (Udrih has less baggage and more in common with starting PG Goran Dragic) and a young big that I still think can become a dominant rebounder. The Grizzlies get a guy that (for better or worse) isn't afraid to handle the ball and rip shots from downtown and swap out one young project for another (though Ennis has had more playing time so far than Stokes). Heat got cheaper, better and less complicated, Grizzlies got...I dunno what the Grizzlies got.
Raptors pick up extension on Terrence Ross. Ross is part of the show in Toronto, this is a predictable move as letting him go would probably be a mistake.
Hornets pick up extension on Jeremy Lamb. Lamb has yet to do anything in the League but the Hornets think they can give him the opportunity he needs. They shipped out Noah Vonleh (we'll see if PJ Hairston is the next one gone) so I guess the rookie scale money was available for a Lamb experiment. I still think the Hornets are a middling squad, not sure Lamb is an upgrade but with MKG injured he'll get time.
Sixers sign Phil Pressey. Considering how young (re: cheap) the Sixers lineup is, Pressey steps in as the grizzled veteran though he's barely played a minute in this League. I reckon he'll get time to play and since the Sixers are always looking for somebody....well....Pressey is somebody I guess.
Nuggets waive Erick Green, sign Kostas Papanikolau. During the summer the Nuggets waived Papanikolau to make room for Green, so I guess it makes sense that Papanikolau is in now that Green is out. I thought Papanikolau played reasonably well in his rookie season in Houston, not a great player but a reliable professional that can knock down some 3's. If he can get used to the altitude of Denver, he'll get some run on what I think is the worst team in the West.
Rockets waive Chuck Hayes. I gotta say as a Kentucky fan, Hayes is one of the more beloved players in recent Big Blue history and while he's long past his limited prime, I intuit that he is a beloved player in the NBA as well. He's a reliable vet, a locker room guy, soon to embark on a coaching career, I'd think. On a crowded Rocket roster there's probably little need for him but for a young team (Pelicans, Bucks, Wolves, for example), he can be a positive force from the end of the bench.
Pelicans sign Jimmer Fredette for the rest of the year. The Pelicans need all kinds of scoring, Fredette can be (I think) a decent scorer off the bench and with the run of injuries they've already suffered, I reckon Fredette can get some play. If he scores, he'll stay out there; if not, he'll be back to the D-League (#1 pick in the D-League draft this year).
Heat trade Mario Chalmers, James Ennis to Grizzlies for Beno Udrih, Jarnell Stokes. Good deal for the Heat, don't really understand what the Grizzlies get out of this. The Heat get a slight upgrade at backup PG (Udrih has less baggage and more in common with starting PG Goran Dragic) and a young big that I still think can become a dominant rebounder. The Grizzlies get a guy that (for better or worse) isn't afraid to handle the ball and rip shots from downtown and swap out one young project for another (though Ennis has had more playing time so far than Stokes). Heat got cheaper, better and less complicated, Grizzlies got...I dunno what the Grizzlies got.
Friday, November 6, 2015
NFL Week 8 (NFC)
Convinced they're in playoffs: Packers (flawed on both sides of the ball but Rodgers is still the man), Panthers (Cam is finally emerging as the badass he was always meant to be, solid D line, not sure about anything else on that team but they keep winning), Cardinals (keep Palmer upright and they can hang with anyone in the league), Rams (I'm in: the D line is ferocious, the running game is dominant, Foles isn't great but he can be good enough).
Top of the middle: Vikings (my favorite dark horse team in the NFC, if Bridgewater makes a leap then I think this time can be really good), Seahawks (still got talent on both sides of the ball but they need to pull it together), Falcons (great but uneven offense, sorry D, can't tell whether they over or underachieving), Giants (if they can outlast Romo's return, I think they'll be in the playoffs).
Bottom of the middle: Cowboys (I still think when Romo comes back, they're the best in the East, time might be running out though), Redskins (decent D, O is getting better but I still don't think they're good enough to get past the Cowboys or Giants), Saints (that offense can still get crazy every once in a while but the squad in general doesn't look very good at all), Eagles (I still don't get this team but they can still win the division), Bucs (they're playing loose and it feels like the team is kinda coming together, could be a serious spoiler down the stretch).
Convinced they're out of playoffs: Bears (I actually think they're not bad, they just don't win games), Niners (the rats are streaming off that ship), Lions (all going wrong, without a serious O line upgrade, Stafford will continue to struggle even though I still think he can be good).
Top of the middle: Vikings (my favorite dark horse team in the NFC, if Bridgewater makes a leap then I think this time can be really good), Seahawks (still got talent on both sides of the ball but they need to pull it together), Falcons (great but uneven offense, sorry D, can't tell whether they over or underachieving), Giants (if they can outlast Romo's return, I think they'll be in the playoffs).
Bottom of the middle: Cowboys (I still think when Romo comes back, they're the best in the East, time might be running out though), Redskins (decent D, O is getting better but I still don't think they're good enough to get past the Cowboys or Giants), Saints (that offense can still get crazy every once in a while but the squad in general doesn't look very good at all), Eagles (I still don't get this team but they can still win the division), Bucs (they're playing loose and it feels like the team is kinda coming together, could be a serious spoiler down the stretch).
Convinced they're out of playoffs: Bears (I actually think they're not bad, they just don't win games), Niners (the rats are streaming off that ship), Lions (all going wrong, without a serious O line upgrade, Stafford will continue to struggle even though I still think he can be good).
NFL Week 8 (AFC)
Convinced they're in the playoffs: Bengals (legit, man, they're really good on both sides of the ball), Broncos (best D in the league, running game seems to have finally appeared, just picked up Vernon Davis for an over the middle target, you're in a good place when your worst regular player is Peyton Manning), Pats (O line is still a bit shaky but the D is better than usual and Brady's efficiency is unbelievable, schedule never really gets tough this year).
Top of the middle: Colts (they kinda suck, they've got internal turmoil, Luck may or may not be healthy, but their division is truly awful, so I expect them to be in the post-season), Jets (the D is really good, the special teams are solid, I still believe in the running game, weird to say but as long as Fitzpatrick is out there, they've got a shot in every game), Raiders (some buzz in Oaktown! The offense is real, they're in sneaking-up mode, AFC is pretty bad, they really have a legit shot at the playoffs).
Bottom of the middle: Dolphins (they can be good, 50/50 whether they'll show up), Bills (watched them a coupla times and when they're not setting records for penalties they're generally the better team; if they clean up their act they can still make the playoffs and be good, not really betting on that happening though), Steelers (still got a shot but Big Ben tries too hard and without Bell I think it'll be too much to overcome), Chiefs (not terrible, can still make some noise if they get it together).
Convinced they're out of the playoffs: Texans (actually they're tied for 1st in their division but, man, they've got problems all over the place), Chargers (everything is going wrong on that squad, everybody's hurt, the home crowd sucks, nothing but bad vibes), Ravens (old and creaky at every positions), Browns (when QB controversy is the best part of your season, things aren't good), Jags (would love to report that they're getting better but I'm still not seeing it), Titans (well they've got a QB but not much else).
Top of the middle: Colts (they kinda suck, they've got internal turmoil, Luck may or may not be healthy, but their division is truly awful, so I expect them to be in the post-season), Jets (the D is really good, the special teams are solid, I still believe in the running game, weird to say but as long as Fitzpatrick is out there, they've got a shot in every game), Raiders (some buzz in Oaktown! The offense is real, they're in sneaking-up mode, AFC is pretty bad, they really have a legit shot at the playoffs).
Bottom of the middle: Dolphins (they can be good, 50/50 whether they'll show up), Bills (watched them a coupla times and when they're not setting records for penalties they're generally the better team; if they clean up their act they can still make the playoffs and be good, not really betting on that happening though), Steelers (still got a shot but Big Ben tries too hard and without Bell I think it'll be too much to overcome), Chiefs (not terrible, can still make some noise if they get it together).
Convinced they're out of the playoffs: Texans (actually they're tied for 1st in their division but, man, they've got problems all over the place), Chargers (everything is going wrong on that squad, everybody's hurt, the home crowd sucks, nothing but bad vibes), Ravens (old and creaky at every positions), Browns (when QB controversy is the best part of your season, things aren't good), Jags (would love to report that they're getting better but I'm still not seeing it), Titans (well they've got a QB but not much else).
Monday, November 2, 2015
World Series
Watching Matt Harvey mowing down the Royals I thought to myself there's no way I'm holding him to a pitch count tonight. Then I recalled that he had controversy all year long about his usage and wondered if his agent would let him get to 110 pitches. I ignored all that thinking Harvey should be out there in the 9th. But when the coaching staff let him know they were going with Familia instead, Harvey bullied his way back onto the mound. I hated that. You hear similar stories about Bumgarner but Bumgarner announced his presence with confidence whereas Harvey announced his presence with hubris. Two batters in, his brilliant performance was over, Familia had to be brought in out of rhythm and the Royals did what the Royals do. Harvey was so brilliant for 8 innings, so awful for the last one and that's all it took. (By the way, Volquez was almost as awesome as Harvey last night, he kept them in the game and staying close is how this Royals team works)
Loves me some Eric Hosmer! Loved that he took off from third with the game on the line. He made the Mets make a play and they didn't make it. That guy is so money, Royal legend for the rest of his life, they'd be crazy to ever let that guy get away.
I had the Royals in 7, thought they were the better team, the more aggressive team and would be victorious but I thought the Mets had better pitching and would push the Royals harder than they did. Here's a stat: in this year's playoffs, the Royals scored 44 runs from the 8th inning on. Jeez, that's how you win championships.
Loves me some Eric Hosmer! Loved that he took off from third with the game on the line. He made the Mets make a play and they didn't make it. That guy is so money, Royal legend for the rest of his life, they'd be crazy to ever let that guy get away.
I had the Royals in 7, thought they were the better team, the more aggressive team and would be victorious but I thought the Mets had better pitching and would push the Royals harder than they did. Here's a stat: in this year's playoffs, the Royals scored 44 runs from the 8th inning on. Jeez, that's how you win championships.
Sunday, November 1, 2015
MVP Prediction
All right, who's gonna win the MVP?
Here's a list of 21 possibilities: Steph Curry (Warriors), Lamarcus Aldridge (Spurs), James Harden (Rockets), Blake Griffin (Clippers), Chris Paul (Clippers), Marc Gasol (Grizzlies), Anthony Davis (Pelicans), Eric Bledsoe (Suns), Kevin Durant (Thunder), Russell Westbrook in the West. Chris Bosh (Heat), Derrick Rose (Bulls), Lebron James (Cavs), Kyrie Irving (Cavs), Kyle Lowry (Raptors), John Wall (Wizards), Al Horford (Hawks), Jeff Teague (Hawks) in the East. For giggles let's add Damien Lillard (Blazers), Demarcus Cousins (Kings), Al Jefferson (Hornets) as big time number hangers from non-playoff teams.
Curry, the defending champ, looks as good as ever 2 games into the season and I expect he's gonna be every bit the monster this year that he was last year. Got to be at the top of the list but he's on a really deep team and that alone should sap a bit of his support.
Aldridge was an underappreciated badass in Portland for years. Now he's moved over to the talent-rich, high visibility Spurs where he'll have to adapt himself to a machine already in motion. I think he'll be just fine but there will be growing pains and the team concept of the Spurs will probably keep him from getting a maximum number of votes.
Harden is the center of the Rockets who have revamped their bench in hopes of another excellent regular season and deep run into the playoffs. Though they're off to a terrible start, they're gonna be just fine and with Harden in the lead, he'll get plenty of consideration for the award.
Griffin and Paul will share the ball and the glory in LA and while I think they'll both have fine seasons (as will the team itself), I think they'll poach votes from each other. Paul has the better chance of the two to emerge as the voters' favorite.
Gasol was overlooked last season, I thought he was GREAT last year. Though he's been paid and the Grizzlies haven't upgraded around him, I think Gasol will have another fine and overlooked season.
Davis is perhaps the favorite to emerge into the beast he is destined to become but I think the Pelicans need another year before their roster can finally come together. Davis will be awesome, no doubt, but the team itself will keep him from winning the MVP.
Bledsoe is a personal pick, I'm still convinced he's the next great NBA badass (I already consider Davis to be one of those) and if the Suns advance into the playoffs, it'll be largely based on his productivity. Worthy of an MVP? Probably not, but the more W's the Suns pile up, the more notice he'll get.
I initially thought that Durant would roll into this season revitalized and chip-on-shoulder-ish and the Thunder would kick much ass this season and Durant would take another MVP. On second thought I think all of the above conditions actually bolster the case for Westbrook winning the MVP: Durant has the opportunity to augment an MVP rather than carry a team on his own. I really do think both will be awesome and the Thunder will win a ton. Come MVP time, they may cancel each other out but if not I suspect Westbrook will get more votes.
I had Bosh on my shortlist last season but the Heat weren't able to take much of a step forward last year and Bosh himself suffered some really scary health problems. But now he's back, the team looks much better than last year and Bosh is again back in the mix to be a superior badass in this league. He's kinda in a catch-22 though: in order to get consideration the team will have to rank high in the East but that will most likely mean that the team concept has taken hold and Bosh doesn't have to drag the team along. If they Heat aren't good, doesn't matter how fine Bosh's season is; but if they're too good, Bosh will get less credit.
I added Derrick Rose to this list really only because he's a past winner and because he looks to be (finally) over his injury concerns. That said, like Bosh his MVP-worthiness will probably fall in line with how the rest of the team develops around him. I think the Bulls will finish 1st in the East because I think Rose's contribution is really marginal: the team will be good anyway, Rose is the cherry on top. But if Rose shines out, has solid stats and the Bulls finish 1st, he'll get more votes than if, say, Chris Bosh pulls off all that. So while I don't really think of Rose as an MVP candidate, I think the people vote might think of him that way.
I should probably say right off the bat that Lebron is OF COURSE the true MVP of the league, everything the Cavs can achieve will be built on Lebron's back, but that doesn't mean he'll win the award. Indeed, I think Kyrie Irving is set for a big time year (when he comes back from injury) and I think his rise will coincide with the Cavs' rise, ergo I expect Kyrie to get a lot of the credit for the Cavs' success. Kyrie isn't my pick but he is my dark horse, that guy that could appear out of nowhere and snatch it. Lebron will undoubtedly deserve it but he will also undoubtedly not finish higher than 4th.
Kyle Lowry is a longshot, I think the Raptors will be pretty good but nothing special. But I can see Lowry finally getting some shine, so if the Raptors do overachieve, if some of the other Eastern stars have disappointing seasons, then Lowry could get some love.
John Wall is got some buzz about him and I think he is ready to take off this year (so are Beal and Porter, too). He's much beloved in DC, he's a human highlight reel, he's finally in that perfect veteran stage of his career, if the Wizards really take a step forward, expect Wall to take the lion's share of the credit. If he puts a crazy efficiency season (very possible), then the nerds in the chattering class will fall over themselves to sing his praises. Along with Kyrie, another top dark horse candidate.
Atlanta led the East last year and look to be good again this year, Jeff Teague (a la Kyrie and Wall) could be in for a positive appraisal of his growth, if the Hawks finish 1st again this year (I don't see it happening but I guess it could), look for Teague to get some love. Or look for Al Horford (contract year) to step up and lead. I think they're both long shots but mainly because I think the Hawks will drop off from last year; if they can keep it up, though, then MVP votes will need to follow.
Al Jefferson (contract year) looks to get back to his down low domination he had a coupla years ago. I don't anticipate the Hornets will be good enough around him to make his potential resurgence notable enough for MVP votes. But he is lovable, is totally watchable at his best and if the Hornets do come together and surprise in the East, Big Al should get some love.
Demarcus Cousins is one of the best pure basketball players in the NBA (has been for years) but until the Kings get good (or he gets to a good team), he won't get the love he deserves. I'd love to think that this is his year but I think the Kings will still be horrible. But if he has a monster--MONSTER--year, never know, the talking heads that love Demarcus might step up and get him some mainstream love. (I doubt it but he is a badass and deserves better than Sacramento will ever give him)
With the rest of his crew scattered to the winds, Damien Lillard looks to have the ball in his hands a lot this year in Portland. The Blazers don't appear playoff worthy but I think they've got a decent shot to be way better than you think and, if so, Lillard has an opportunity to have a big year on an overachieving team, which could earn him some votes.
So what do I think will happen? I'll stick with James Harden. His efficiency is legendary, his team is going to win a lot of games while the supporting cast will stay relatively anonymous. Harden is gonna be a big player on a top team, that's how MVPs are won and I think its his time. I'll take Kyrie, Curry, Westbrook, Lebron, Davis, Wall and Paul to be up there at year's end too.
Here's a list of 21 possibilities: Steph Curry (Warriors), Lamarcus Aldridge (Spurs), James Harden (Rockets), Blake Griffin (Clippers), Chris Paul (Clippers), Marc Gasol (Grizzlies), Anthony Davis (Pelicans), Eric Bledsoe (Suns), Kevin Durant (Thunder), Russell Westbrook in the West. Chris Bosh (Heat), Derrick Rose (Bulls), Lebron James (Cavs), Kyrie Irving (Cavs), Kyle Lowry (Raptors), John Wall (Wizards), Al Horford (Hawks), Jeff Teague (Hawks) in the East. For giggles let's add Damien Lillard (Blazers), Demarcus Cousins (Kings), Al Jefferson (Hornets) as big time number hangers from non-playoff teams.
Curry, the defending champ, looks as good as ever 2 games into the season and I expect he's gonna be every bit the monster this year that he was last year. Got to be at the top of the list but he's on a really deep team and that alone should sap a bit of his support.
Aldridge was an underappreciated badass in Portland for years. Now he's moved over to the talent-rich, high visibility Spurs where he'll have to adapt himself to a machine already in motion. I think he'll be just fine but there will be growing pains and the team concept of the Spurs will probably keep him from getting a maximum number of votes.
Harden is the center of the Rockets who have revamped their bench in hopes of another excellent regular season and deep run into the playoffs. Though they're off to a terrible start, they're gonna be just fine and with Harden in the lead, he'll get plenty of consideration for the award.
Griffin and Paul will share the ball and the glory in LA and while I think they'll both have fine seasons (as will the team itself), I think they'll poach votes from each other. Paul has the better chance of the two to emerge as the voters' favorite.
Gasol was overlooked last season, I thought he was GREAT last year. Though he's been paid and the Grizzlies haven't upgraded around him, I think Gasol will have another fine and overlooked season.
Davis is perhaps the favorite to emerge into the beast he is destined to become but I think the Pelicans need another year before their roster can finally come together. Davis will be awesome, no doubt, but the team itself will keep him from winning the MVP.
Bledsoe is a personal pick, I'm still convinced he's the next great NBA badass (I already consider Davis to be one of those) and if the Suns advance into the playoffs, it'll be largely based on his productivity. Worthy of an MVP? Probably not, but the more W's the Suns pile up, the more notice he'll get.
I initially thought that Durant would roll into this season revitalized and chip-on-shoulder-ish and the Thunder would kick much ass this season and Durant would take another MVP. On second thought I think all of the above conditions actually bolster the case for Westbrook winning the MVP: Durant has the opportunity to augment an MVP rather than carry a team on his own. I really do think both will be awesome and the Thunder will win a ton. Come MVP time, they may cancel each other out but if not I suspect Westbrook will get more votes.
I had Bosh on my shortlist last season but the Heat weren't able to take much of a step forward last year and Bosh himself suffered some really scary health problems. But now he's back, the team looks much better than last year and Bosh is again back in the mix to be a superior badass in this league. He's kinda in a catch-22 though: in order to get consideration the team will have to rank high in the East but that will most likely mean that the team concept has taken hold and Bosh doesn't have to drag the team along. If they Heat aren't good, doesn't matter how fine Bosh's season is; but if they're too good, Bosh will get less credit.
I added Derrick Rose to this list really only because he's a past winner and because he looks to be (finally) over his injury concerns. That said, like Bosh his MVP-worthiness will probably fall in line with how the rest of the team develops around him. I think the Bulls will finish 1st in the East because I think Rose's contribution is really marginal: the team will be good anyway, Rose is the cherry on top. But if Rose shines out, has solid stats and the Bulls finish 1st, he'll get more votes than if, say, Chris Bosh pulls off all that. So while I don't really think of Rose as an MVP candidate, I think the people vote might think of him that way.
I should probably say right off the bat that Lebron is OF COURSE the true MVP of the league, everything the Cavs can achieve will be built on Lebron's back, but that doesn't mean he'll win the award. Indeed, I think Kyrie Irving is set for a big time year (when he comes back from injury) and I think his rise will coincide with the Cavs' rise, ergo I expect Kyrie to get a lot of the credit for the Cavs' success. Kyrie isn't my pick but he is my dark horse, that guy that could appear out of nowhere and snatch it. Lebron will undoubtedly deserve it but he will also undoubtedly not finish higher than 4th.
Kyle Lowry is a longshot, I think the Raptors will be pretty good but nothing special. But I can see Lowry finally getting some shine, so if the Raptors do overachieve, if some of the other Eastern stars have disappointing seasons, then Lowry could get some love.
John Wall is got some buzz about him and I think he is ready to take off this year (so are Beal and Porter, too). He's much beloved in DC, he's a human highlight reel, he's finally in that perfect veteran stage of his career, if the Wizards really take a step forward, expect Wall to take the lion's share of the credit. If he puts a crazy efficiency season (very possible), then the nerds in the chattering class will fall over themselves to sing his praises. Along with Kyrie, another top dark horse candidate.
Atlanta led the East last year and look to be good again this year, Jeff Teague (a la Kyrie and Wall) could be in for a positive appraisal of his growth, if the Hawks finish 1st again this year (I don't see it happening but I guess it could), look for Teague to get some love. Or look for Al Horford (contract year) to step up and lead. I think they're both long shots but mainly because I think the Hawks will drop off from last year; if they can keep it up, though, then MVP votes will need to follow.
Al Jefferson (contract year) looks to get back to his down low domination he had a coupla years ago. I don't anticipate the Hornets will be good enough around him to make his potential resurgence notable enough for MVP votes. But he is lovable, is totally watchable at his best and if the Hornets do come together and surprise in the East, Big Al should get some love.
Demarcus Cousins is one of the best pure basketball players in the NBA (has been for years) but until the Kings get good (or he gets to a good team), he won't get the love he deserves. I'd love to think that this is his year but I think the Kings will still be horrible. But if he has a monster--MONSTER--year, never know, the talking heads that love Demarcus might step up and get him some mainstream love. (I doubt it but he is a badass and deserves better than Sacramento will ever give him)
With the rest of his crew scattered to the winds, Damien Lillard looks to have the ball in his hands a lot this year in Portland. The Blazers don't appear playoff worthy but I think they've got a decent shot to be way better than you think and, if so, Lillard has an opportunity to have a big year on an overachieving team, which could earn him some votes.
So what do I think will happen? I'll stick with James Harden. His efficiency is legendary, his team is going to win a lot of games while the supporting cast will stay relatively anonymous. Harden is gonna be a big player on a top team, that's how MVPs are won and I think its his time. I'll take Kyrie, Curry, Westbrook, Lebron, Davis, Wall and Paul to be up there at year's end too.
Rugby World Cup
New Zealand 34-17 Australia
I would've loved to have watched this match but my local NBC station had expanded Breeders' Cup coverage. Barf. (I'm supposed to care because it took place in my hometown this year but I can't stand horse racing and Breeders' Cup is not enough to make me give a shit) Anyway, if you're only gonna watch one rugby match for the next four years, New Zealand against Australia in a World Cup Final is the one to watch. *Sigh* Maybe next time...
Coach of the Year
In determining Coach of the Year candidates, it is best to start at the other end: who's gonna get fired first?
Interim coaches: Sam Mitchell (T-Wolves). Mitchell stepping in for the late Flip Saunders has an opportunity to keep this job. I suspect he will not be replaced during the season but that doesn't mean the job is his to keep. He's got a youth movement on his hands and if the T-Wolves vastly overachieve (say, hanging around that 8th playoff spot) then I think he's got a decent shot at Coach of the Year. Not my pick but not a crazy longshot as I think that team will be better than you think right away because as opposed to the Magic and Jazz, the Wolves have enough veteran presence to give the young talent something to lean on.
1st year coaches: Mike Malone (Nuggets), Scott Skiles (Magic), Fred Hoiberg (Bulls), Alvin Gentry (Pelicans), Billy Donovan (Thunder), George Karl (Kings).
I think the Nuggets will be the worst team in the West, for which Malone will receive none of the blame, thus he is neither a candidate for best or worst of the year. His job is to keep morale up and get Mudiay used to life in the NBA.
If Skiles can get the Magic into the playoffs (not a crazy notion) then he'll get some votes. There are too many other good candidates to think he'll win Coach of the Year but I doubt he gets fired unless the wheels come off down there (which I do NOT anticipate will happen).
Hoiberg has a real shot at COY: my personal belief is that Thibodeau kinda ran the Bulls into the ground giving Hoiberg a good chance at increasing offensive efficiency without sacrificing defensive intensity; in short, I think the Bulls will be good and Hoiberg will get serious consideration.
Gentry is taking over a team that was okay last year, looks to be a little more okay this year. If the Pelicans take a jump, he'll get a lot of votes, but I don't think they will be wildly better than last year so I don't think he wins. No way he gets fired though.
Donovan is taking over a squad that has underperformed for a few years now, if he can keep them healthy, the Thunder will be one of the best teams in the league giving Donovan a great shot at Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired this year.
Karl has a tough job ahead of him, there's talent there but not enough to succeed in the West. I suspect Karl is more likely to be fired (or resign to preserve his mental health) than get votes for Coach of the Year.
2nd year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)
Fisher's job is to be the face of the team until the team develops enough of an identity to lure a real coach. I doubt he gets fired because I doubt a real coach emerges but even though NYK should be waaaaay better than last year, they won't be good enough to earn some Coach of the Year consideration for Fisher.
Personally I don't get what Stan Van is doing in Detroit but they already look better than last year and a lot of folks think they're gonna make the playoffs (I'm still dubious). Making the playoffs alone probably won't be enough to get SVG COY votes but no way he gets fired (especially since he is his own boss).
Blatt has the uniquest (hmmm, I thought I just invented that word but spell check so its okay) career in the NBA: every second of his time in Cleveland will be on the hot seat, but he'll probably make the conference finals every year. The difference between winning Coach of the Year and getting sent packing is razor thin. Unless someone like Hoiberg or Donovan emerges, Blatt could actually win.
Hollins is coaching a horrible team that has no chance of being good. No way he gets COY votes, but should probably keep his job because there's no one out there that would be any better at this job.
Kidd has some real expectations in Milwaukee, we'll see how he does. I don't think the Bucks get into the top 4 in the East so I don't think he gets any votes but I think his job is pretty secure.
Scott's job is to watch over the flailing Lakers until the next wave of free agents floods in. Currently the job has no up side (they will not be good this year) and no down side (nobody else wants this job...until the free agents arrive).
Kerr is a golden boy, no way he loses his job. But unless the Warriors win 70 games (could happen) I don't see him getting more COY votes.
I think Snyder is doing a good job in Utah but unless they sneak up on people (like getting past the Pelicans and Grizzlies) I don't see him getting more than a token vote for COY. Probably no way he gets fired though, he's doing well there.
3rd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers)
Stevens is the BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE. But unless the Celtics vault into the top 4 of the East (uh, I don't see that happening), he won't get votes for Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired--quite the opposite: they'll have to beg him to stay one o' these days.
Budenholzer has now taken over GM duties in Atlanta in a divisive corporate atmosphere. Bold prediction: I think Budenholzer the most likely to get fired. Yes, he just won COY last year but the expectations are higher in Atlanta and I fear this squad has already peaked. Rather than entrenching his position, I suspect taking on more responsibility will make him even more of a target. Coach Bud better get it done this year or he might get sent packing.
Clifford is the next on the hot seat, though firing him would purely be to 'shake things up'. The Hornets made the playoffs two years ago, sputtered last year and I suspect will sputter some more this year. There was a time when the Hornets could sneak up on people, that time has passed. I think he's done a decent job with what he's been given but we're getting near that time when the GM has to fire somebody rather than take the blame himself. Thus I think Clifford is probably on the hottest seat in the league.
Brown could be the fall guy in Philly but I don't think so, I think he's part of the plan. And I suspect when the Sixers actually try to win again (next summer?), that Brown will still be part of the plan. No way he wins Coach of the Year but I don't see him getting fired either, I think he's their guy for the future.
Hornacek is another (like Clifford) that could take the blame for a scuffling front office. I think he's done a pretty good job but there's something off about that franchise and unless the Suns make the playoffs (I had them in but....nobody else did) he might be looking for a job next summer.
Joerger has done a fine job in Memphis but it feels like this Grizzlies squad has peaked. Unless they get perimeter scoring (they have tried and failed so many times in the last few years), they will not be in the top 4 in the West. The Grizzlies are good but doesn't feel like they're getting better, does Joerger take the fall for that? He might.
Rivers is his own boss and I think the Clippers will be a solid regular season squad. I think there are better candidates for COY but no way he gets fired.
4th year coaches: Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)
Stotts is in a weird place: no way the Blazers are as good as previous years but if he can salvage something from this season, he might be closer to Coach of the Year than ever before. But unless things go horribly, I don't see him getting fired either (indeed, I'd say there's a better chance he quits than gets fired). I think the Blazers will be okay, might even be in contention for that 8th spot, so I don't see him leaving this year.
I think the Wizards will be a really good regular season team this year so unless health turns really bad, I think Wittman should get some COY votes and no way he gets fired.
5th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)
I can see the Rockets being the top team in the West, McHale could get some serious votes for COY. Could the Rockets replace McHale? I doubt it.
Dwayne Casey could be at the end of his time in Toronto, but I don't think so. I think the Raptors will be a pretty good team in the East and unless management thinks there's somebody better out there, I suspect Casey gets no votes for COY but will be back next year.
Vogel is the man for the Pacers, they'd be foolish to let him go. That said, I don't see the Pacers making the playoffs so I don't see Vogel getting COY votes.
Veteran coaches: Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)
Spoelstra has his hands full with this team. I think the Heat could be really good this year and we'll see if Spoelstra is up to the task of mixing and matching this weird collection of talent. I think he will, I think he's a really good coach and I think he'll be in the mix for Coach of the Year.
Carlisle just signed an extension, which probably indicates the Mavs will try to tank this year. While I don't think the Mavs will be good, I don't think they'll tank, that's just not who they are. They're still gonna beat sloppy teams, they're still gonna get hot from the floor, they're gonna play with pride. Carlisle will get no Coach of the Year votes but nor will he get fired.
Popovich is Popovich, man.
Weird season: I don't see any obvious hot seat candidates, normally there's one or two every year. So for most likely to get fired I'll go with Karl (Kings), Clifford (Hornets), Joerger (Grizzlies) and maybe Budenholzer (Hawks) and Hornacek (Suns). I wouldn't recommend any of those firings but GMs gotta blame somebody and these guys seem like the most likely to take the blame.
For Coach of the Year I'll go: Hoiberg (Bulls), McHale (Rockets), Kerr (Warriors), Spoelstra (Heat), Donovan (Thunder). (Wittman will deserve votes but he won't get them)
Interim coaches: Sam Mitchell (T-Wolves). Mitchell stepping in for the late Flip Saunders has an opportunity to keep this job. I suspect he will not be replaced during the season but that doesn't mean the job is his to keep. He's got a youth movement on his hands and if the T-Wolves vastly overachieve (say, hanging around that 8th playoff spot) then I think he's got a decent shot at Coach of the Year. Not my pick but not a crazy longshot as I think that team will be better than you think right away because as opposed to the Magic and Jazz, the Wolves have enough veteran presence to give the young talent something to lean on.
1st year coaches: Mike Malone (Nuggets), Scott Skiles (Magic), Fred Hoiberg (Bulls), Alvin Gentry (Pelicans), Billy Donovan (Thunder), George Karl (Kings).
I think the Nuggets will be the worst team in the West, for which Malone will receive none of the blame, thus he is neither a candidate for best or worst of the year. His job is to keep morale up and get Mudiay used to life in the NBA.
If Skiles can get the Magic into the playoffs (not a crazy notion) then he'll get some votes. There are too many other good candidates to think he'll win Coach of the Year but I doubt he gets fired unless the wheels come off down there (which I do NOT anticipate will happen).
Hoiberg has a real shot at COY: my personal belief is that Thibodeau kinda ran the Bulls into the ground giving Hoiberg a good chance at increasing offensive efficiency without sacrificing defensive intensity; in short, I think the Bulls will be good and Hoiberg will get serious consideration.
Gentry is taking over a team that was okay last year, looks to be a little more okay this year. If the Pelicans take a jump, he'll get a lot of votes, but I don't think they will be wildly better than last year so I don't think he wins. No way he gets fired though.
Donovan is taking over a squad that has underperformed for a few years now, if he can keep them healthy, the Thunder will be one of the best teams in the league giving Donovan a great shot at Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired this year.
Karl has a tough job ahead of him, there's talent there but not enough to succeed in the West. I suspect Karl is more likely to be fired (or resign to preserve his mental health) than get votes for Coach of the Year.
2nd year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)
Fisher's job is to be the face of the team until the team develops enough of an identity to lure a real coach. I doubt he gets fired because I doubt a real coach emerges but even though NYK should be waaaaay better than last year, they won't be good enough to earn some Coach of the Year consideration for Fisher.
Personally I don't get what Stan Van is doing in Detroit but they already look better than last year and a lot of folks think they're gonna make the playoffs (I'm still dubious). Making the playoffs alone probably won't be enough to get SVG COY votes but no way he gets fired (especially since he is his own boss).
Blatt has the uniquest (hmmm, I thought I just invented that word but spell check so its okay) career in the NBA: every second of his time in Cleveland will be on the hot seat, but he'll probably make the conference finals every year. The difference between winning Coach of the Year and getting sent packing is razor thin. Unless someone like Hoiberg or Donovan emerges, Blatt could actually win.
Hollins is coaching a horrible team that has no chance of being good. No way he gets COY votes, but should probably keep his job because there's no one out there that would be any better at this job.
Kidd has some real expectations in Milwaukee, we'll see how he does. I don't think the Bucks get into the top 4 in the East so I don't think he gets any votes but I think his job is pretty secure.
Scott's job is to watch over the flailing Lakers until the next wave of free agents floods in. Currently the job has no up side (they will not be good this year) and no down side (nobody else wants this job...until the free agents arrive).
Kerr is a golden boy, no way he loses his job. But unless the Warriors win 70 games (could happen) I don't see him getting more COY votes.
I think Snyder is doing a good job in Utah but unless they sneak up on people (like getting past the Pelicans and Grizzlies) I don't see him getting more than a token vote for COY. Probably no way he gets fired though, he's doing well there.
3rd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers)
Stevens is the BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE. But unless the Celtics vault into the top 4 of the East (uh, I don't see that happening), he won't get votes for Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired--quite the opposite: they'll have to beg him to stay one o' these days.
Budenholzer has now taken over GM duties in Atlanta in a divisive corporate atmosphere. Bold prediction: I think Budenholzer the most likely to get fired. Yes, he just won COY last year but the expectations are higher in Atlanta and I fear this squad has already peaked. Rather than entrenching his position, I suspect taking on more responsibility will make him even more of a target. Coach Bud better get it done this year or he might get sent packing.
Clifford is the next on the hot seat, though firing him would purely be to 'shake things up'. The Hornets made the playoffs two years ago, sputtered last year and I suspect will sputter some more this year. There was a time when the Hornets could sneak up on people, that time has passed. I think he's done a decent job with what he's been given but we're getting near that time when the GM has to fire somebody rather than take the blame himself. Thus I think Clifford is probably on the hottest seat in the league.
Brown could be the fall guy in Philly but I don't think so, I think he's part of the plan. And I suspect when the Sixers actually try to win again (next summer?), that Brown will still be part of the plan. No way he wins Coach of the Year but I don't see him getting fired either, I think he's their guy for the future.
Hornacek is another (like Clifford) that could take the blame for a scuffling front office. I think he's done a pretty good job but there's something off about that franchise and unless the Suns make the playoffs (I had them in but....nobody else did) he might be looking for a job next summer.
Joerger has done a fine job in Memphis but it feels like this Grizzlies squad has peaked. Unless they get perimeter scoring (they have tried and failed so many times in the last few years), they will not be in the top 4 in the West. The Grizzlies are good but doesn't feel like they're getting better, does Joerger take the fall for that? He might.
Rivers is his own boss and I think the Clippers will be a solid regular season squad. I think there are better candidates for COY but no way he gets fired.
4th year coaches: Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)
Stotts is in a weird place: no way the Blazers are as good as previous years but if he can salvage something from this season, he might be closer to Coach of the Year than ever before. But unless things go horribly, I don't see him getting fired either (indeed, I'd say there's a better chance he quits than gets fired). I think the Blazers will be okay, might even be in contention for that 8th spot, so I don't see him leaving this year.
I think the Wizards will be a really good regular season team this year so unless health turns really bad, I think Wittman should get some COY votes and no way he gets fired.
5th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)
I can see the Rockets being the top team in the West, McHale could get some serious votes for COY. Could the Rockets replace McHale? I doubt it.
Dwayne Casey could be at the end of his time in Toronto, but I don't think so. I think the Raptors will be a pretty good team in the East and unless management thinks there's somebody better out there, I suspect Casey gets no votes for COY but will be back next year.
Vogel is the man for the Pacers, they'd be foolish to let him go. That said, I don't see the Pacers making the playoffs so I don't see Vogel getting COY votes.
Veteran coaches: Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)
Spoelstra has his hands full with this team. I think the Heat could be really good this year and we'll see if Spoelstra is up to the task of mixing and matching this weird collection of talent. I think he will, I think he's a really good coach and I think he'll be in the mix for Coach of the Year.
Carlisle just signed an extension, which probably indicates the Mavs will try to tank this year. While I don't think the Mavs will be good, I don't think they'll tank, that's just not who they are. They're still gonna beat sloppy teams, they're still gonna get hot from the floor, they're gonna play with pride. Carlisle will get no Coach of the Year votes but nor will he get fired.
Popovich is Popovich, man.
Weird season: I don't see any obvious hot seat candidates, normally there's one or two every year. So for most likely to get fired I'll go with Karl (Kings), Clifford (Hornets), Joerger (Grizzlies) and maybe Budenholzer (Hawks) and Hornacek (Suns). I wouldn't recommend any of those firings but GMs gotta blame somebody and these guys seem like the most likely to take the blame.
For Coach of the Year I'll go: Hoiberg (Bulls), McHale (Rockets), Kerr (Warriors), Spoelstra (Heat), Donovan (Thunder). (Wittman will deserve votes but he won't get them)
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