2021-22 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Post-Draft) (*)

Post-Draft Signings

Tomas Satoransky signed with FC Barcelona

Barcelona's nemesis (Real Madrid) just played in the Euroleague final, which means Barca is ready to unload the vault to get back in the game. Good time to be Tomas: being a badass in Barcelona is probably a lot better than being a Washington Wizard. I always liked him, good for Tomas, nice playmaker (an oldhead Josh Giddey, if you will), should still have a coupla really good Euro years left in him.

Qualifying Offers

Heat tendered RFA Caleb Martin a qualifying offer

I like both of the Martin twins, Caleb just played solid minutes in a conference final, his contract is miniscule, I would expect somebody to take a run at him (and unless someone comes way over the top, I would expect the Heat to keep him). 

Kings did not tender UFA Donta DiVincenzo a qualifying offer

I didn't understand why the Bucks gave up on DiVincenzo so easily last year, when they clearly could've used some wing scoring off the bench. And now I don't understand why the Kings are going to just let him walk when they actually made a nifty move to get him last season. I mean if he's not part of the plan then I guess you move on, but what better plan are the Kings working on? 

1yr deals

Heat sign Orlando Robinson to 1yr deal

Recent Fresno State big man, Robinson had (briefly) a 1st round grade in some mocks, so signing him post-draft could be a real get for the Heat. He's a Summer Leaguer if nothing else. 

Pacers sign Fanbo Deng to 1 yr deal

Fanbo didn't start appearing in the mocks until right before the draft, so I know nothing about him. We'll see in Summer League. Why sign these guys to 1 yr deals rather than 2-ways or even less formal deals? I dunno, something in the salary cap structure promotes having a slot that endures into the next season--even if the player does not come back. Will Fanbo and/or Robinson be on the opening day rosters in October? I doubt it, but you never know. 

2-way contracts

Bucks sign AJ Green, Grizzlies sign Kenneth Lofton Jr, Jazz sign Johnny Juzang, Lakers sign Scotty Pippen Jr , Nuggets sign Collin Gillespie, Raptors sign Ron Harper Jr, Warriors sign Lester Quinones

Yeah...not a lot of mock draft love for any of these guys all year long--even though I thought Juzang would start the season with a 1st rd grade, but he never wowed the scouts. I dunno, man, I think the Jazz got themselves a guy that can score. As for others....no idea.

Options/Extensions

Thunder pick up option on Lu Dort

The final year of Dort's rookie deal, not even $2m (not even sure if that's guaranteed), pound for pound this is maybe the most valuable contract in the league. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they trade him this summer: OKC is still in Lose mode for another year, Dort is quite possibly too good to play and (like *ahem* SGA), the sporting thing to do is to trade young guys that need to play if you're not gonna play them. I can absolutely see Dort and SGA on other teams by October. 

Rockets pick up option on Jae'Sean Tate

I liked Tate, another nice young player for the Rockets to build around. The Rockets are the kind of team that will invest well, accrue value well, make the right moves, and will willingly sacrifice W's if it means building a better value base over time. Point being: the Rockets should still be pretty awful next year (like OKC, they're in for 1 more year of tank commander b-ball) but I think they are building correctly and will be rewarded over time. 

Cavs pick up option on Dean Wade

The poor man's Kevin Love, perfect just in case they move on from Love this summer. Under $2m, final year of the deal, he played 51 games last year, this is a no-brainer. 

Kyrie Irving (Nets) exercises player option

Ha! This basically means Kyrie couldn't find a trade or sign/trade option, nor does it seem like the Nets were eager to give a max deal (good god, why would they?), so it appears Kyrie is resigned to playing out his deal and finding a new home next summer. Should be a weird year for Kyrie and the Nets.

Pat Connaughton (Bucks) exercises player option

Cool.  I always dug, Connaughton, he hustles, don't take no shit, ain't a great shooter but isn't afraid to shoot, knows he's not the star. Totally worth 1yr/$5.5m. He might get moved but he's the kinda guy that's nice to have, a wild card guy that can make plays. 

Kendrick Nunn (Lakers) exercises player option

Sure, why not? Nunn was supposed to be a ball handler off the bench for a playoff team last year but Nunn didn't play at all and the Lakers sucked. I expect Nunn to play next year (but I wouldn't expect the Lakers to be much better). 

Cory Joseph (Pistons) exercises player option

I reckon Joseph will be part of their rotation next year. The Pistons should be better but I don't see them as a post-season team next year, so filling minutes with Joseph sounds just fine. 

Svi Mykhailuk (Raptors) exercises player option

Under $2m, played 56 games last year, Raptors rotation is a deep one, I can see him playing minutes for Toronto, this is probably a good deal. 

John Wall (Rockets) exercises player option

If I'm not mistaken, the Rockets agreed to buy Wall out and he is going to sign with the Clippers (something like 1yr/$8m). I thought the Rockets could've played him, he could've looked kinda good without winning games, seems like they could've made more of a market for him, but I guess they were cool with just buying him out (when (NFL guy) says he got paid to lose games, why are we surprised? In the tanking NBA there's a handful of guys getting paid to not win games every season). I think Wall probably still has something left in the tank, he's barely played but I reckon he's still physically well enough to be good. The Clippers should be a nice spot for him. 

James Harden (Sixers) declines player option

This is so Harden can sign an extension, I'm guessing 3yrs something like $170m. I wouldn't pay him that but it isn't my money-- in fact, it's the best kind of money: someone else's money! I still think Harden can be good, possibly even really really good, but he's also guaranteed to be annoying, cryptic and there's also a chance he just goes sideways forever and never comes close to being worth a big fat extension. The Sixers are into it, I guess, but I'd be looking for a trade partner (Westbrook doesn't seem that bad a pairing for Embiid to me), but then again, I'm not an NBA GM, I'm a frickin' blogger.  

Bradley Beal (Wizards) declines player option

This is so Beal can sign the mega-max (or something pretty max-y) with the Wizards. Does he get traded in the next year? I guess I'd say 50/50 chance. Beal has always said he wants to stay in DC, but the Wizards have always sucked, I think he's a popular enough player for the fans to root for him at-large and therefore is massive tradebait, even at his high salary. I don't see the ideal circumstance (to Philly w/ Harden and Embiid? Can he get to Miami? Is it possible to pair him with Luka?), so I can see Beal just playing his entire career in a quiet NBA suburb (that ain't the worst life, actually).  

Nicholas Batum (Clippers) declines player option

Uhhhh, I don't get this one. I always liked Batum as much as the next guy, but I thought another year with the Clippers at $3.5m sounded about right. If he opts out, I don't see him going back to the Clippers, so does he have a better deal waiting from somewhere else? (Jazz? Bucks? Celtics? Heat?)

Trades

Thunder get JaMycheal Green, 2027 1st rd pick; Nuggets get 2023 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick, the rights to pick # 30 (Peyton Watson)

Green is a reliable vet with no aspirations to a future with OKC and he's on an expiring contract, so he can either play for OKC or get waived or get traded. Kinda feels like the Nuggets overpaid to get the worst 1st rd pick possible (no comment on Watson, but #30 is arguably the worst spot in the whole draft), but I suppose clearing out space to replace Green is valuable. (And hey! 2nd rd picks! Hooray!)

Blazers get Jerami Grant, the rights to the #46 pick (Ismael Kamangate); Pistons get 2025 1st rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, the rights to pick #36 (Gabriele Procida)

Grant in the final year of his deal is a nice scoring option for the Blazers, who feel like they're gonna score a ton (but will they defend enough to actually win games?); I feel like the Pistons tipped their hand a bit much and could've done better than a future 1st and a bunch of 2nd rd picks for a pretty good veteran scorer. On the other hand: if Procida becomes a nice player, then that alone is worth it because they needed to get off Grant's salary. Anyway, this is not the deal I foresaw for Jerami Grant, not sure what else was out there for the Pistons, though. 

Mavs get Christian Wood; Rockets get Boban Marjanovic, Trey Burke, Sterling Brown, Marquese Chriss, the rights to #26 pick (Wendell Moore Jr)

Wood is a nice big man, shoots 3's, feels like he won't get in Luka's way and will contribute more offense than you think; this is a good move for the Mavs. I feel like the Rockets could've done better for Wood, but a collection of vets on small contracts is maybe exactly what they need. Throw in another youngster (just played in a Final Four, no less) for the youth movement and, okay, I'm talking myself into this move. 

Sixers get De'Anthony Melton; Grizzlies get Danny Green, the rights to #23 pick (David Roddy)

I like Melton but I guess the Grizzlies fancied themselves deep enough to let him walk or perhaps they saw what I saw in Roddy's rambling run through March Madness (one of the only players I name checked this year). I have my doubts about Roddy, but you never know, but Green on the other hand is clearly not going to play next year, so he's just a piece of paper to pass around. Melton is a nice pickup for the Sixers, another savvy contributor off the bench. 

Coaches

Hornets hired Steve Clifford (multi-year) to be Head Coach

*cue the Welcome Back Kotter theme song* Clifford was the guy the Hornets fired the last time they needed to go in a new direction. Most insiders speak highly of Clifford's skills but I dunno that I've ever seen any evidence of it. They went with a hot new thing (Borrego) last time, so going back to the check-getting retread route, I reckon. (So we're just recycling golf buddies in Charlotte or something...?) Will it help? Who knows? Clifford might be perfect, I have no idea what kind of coach this team needs.

Jazz hired Will Hardy (5yrs) to be Head Coach

Okay. Danny Ainge reaching back to Boston to thin out that coaching staff after snagging an Eastern Conference title. The Jazz need a new look and feel (one in Ainge's image, I presume), and Hardy may well be perfect. Clearly Hardy was at peace with whatever comes to pass with Donovan Mitchell and/or Rudy Gobert this summer (and that's probably the first question in the interview!). 

(*) The plan is to do a team-by-team look at the draft. Hopefully tomorrow. We'll see.

2021-22 NBA Bric-a-Brac (post-Championship)

Players

Derrick Favors (Thunder) exercises player option

Yup, this was always going to happen. Next year as SGA's contract matriculates, Favors will drop to being only the 2nd highest paid player on the Thunder roster (at $10.1m). He's expiring veteran trade bait, I'd love to see Favors on a nice team (Jazz, Heat, Sixers, Nets, Lakers, Clippers always in the mix), I think he can be a nice bench piece on a good team (and OKC ain't it). 

Robert Covington (Clippers) signs 2-year/$24m extension

Long thought Covington is among the most underrated guys in the league for the last 5 years or so. He's a much better defender than you're giving him credit for (had him higher than Smart on my scorecard) and a better shooter than you realize. Covington can be that reliable defensive junkyard dog that can knock down a 3 on a champ team. Clippers got a ways to go, but the Covington deal is arguably the bestest purest value they've got.

Russell Westbrook (Lakers) exercises player option

Oh yeah, no one ever thought Westbrook would just walk away from a $47m paycheck. Whether he stays in LA or gets traded (just sayin': don't you think he's the perfect pairing with Gobert?), opting in was a foregone conclusion. If the Lakers could get something better then he'd be gone (hey, that's just how it is to play for the Lakers, they're always dealing), and that could happen. But I think its more likely we find out how strong Coach Ham is gonna be by Xmas time. 

Sixers exercise team option on Shake Milton

I like Shake, under $2m to finish off his rookie deal is a no-brainer. He kinda reminds me of Tyrese Maxey (Shake's a little more of a playmaker), makes him a nice off the bench guy for Philly. 

Jeff Green (Nuggets) exercises player option

Man, Jeff Green is still good, I kinda love Green, he went to waste on an injury riddle Nuggets squad this year. But if they come back healthy, Green can be a playoff bench guy. 

Thanassis Antetokounpo (Bucks) exercises player option

It seems to me Thanassis at least has DPOY potential (and he's the big star's brother, so...), he's under $2m, no reason not to bring him back. 

PJ Tucker (Heat) declined player option, becomes free agent

I thought Tucker and Heat culture were a good match but Reddit says 3yr/$30m to the (Sixers?), which sounds kinda crazy to me. I like Tucker, he can probably just sit out til January 1 and angle his way onto a talent-rich squad in the cap shuffling. I dunno where this is going, I just assumed he was gonna be in Miami but this is a taking a Horford-to-Philly turn.

JaMychal Green (Nuggets) exercises player option (trade?)

Green getting traded to OKC was reported last week (then ghosted after it required other moves to happen first), I'm assuming the trade talk returns on Draft Night (tomorrow, btw). (Seemed like a good deal, Nuggets trying to trade up in the draft, I think)

Coaches

Kings fire Alvin Gentry (interim coach); hire Mike Brown

Ahhhh, summer....time for the Kings to get to work on a new identity. Gentry was just a paycheck collecting caretaker while at least Brown is coming in with some promising talent and some authority. Kings are as snakebit as any franchise in North America, I wish 'em luck but we'll see. I like Fox and Sabonis, we'll see what they add on draft night (I got a feeling they trade out of #4), if they get a new attitude maybe they're a sneaky play-in team.  

Lakers fire Frank Vogel; hire Darvin Ham

The Lakers firing Vogel just proves what everyone already knows: the Lakers front office is stupid. Man, you think Vogel was what was wrong with that team? That's crazy. They won a championship with him, then made a soul crushing trade and now Vogel can't coach? Yeah...yeah, nobody's buying that. Vogel will be getting paychecks to not coach the Lakers for a while and he'll get another job one o' these days because no one watching the NBA thinks Vogel did a bad job in LA. 

Good luck to Ham. He was a popular asst with the Bucks, not sure what his deal is but he's swimming with sharks now, god love him. He'll be getting paid and living large in LA (which always looks like fun on TV), but there's a real chance the Lakers won't make the playoffs next year either (or that they get mopped up quickly) and that probably isn't that much fun. If Ham wins he'll be a legend, if he fails he'll still work in the NBA, so obviously its the right career move, but man that looks like a tough life to me.

Wolves sign Chris Finch to 3-year contract extension

The Wolves have been getting better over the last coupla years (re-emerging from the Thibodeau crater) and if the core likes the coach, then bring back the coach. I have no idea if Finch is any good but the Wolves were pretty good this year and that's worth some bonuses, so good for Finch.

Hornets fire James Borrego; announce the hiring of Kenny Atkinson, who backed out a coupla days later; (going to hire D'antoni?)

The Hornets have arguably been the weirdest team over the last 5 years or so. They always seem to have some nice players, good contracts, good situations and then they're never as good as they should be. Somehow, though, I can't imagine that Borrego is the problem, he actually seems pretty good to me and he'll be on a high profile coaching staff by October, I reckon. Atkinson is a well known in-your-face kinda coach, is that really what this team wants? I don't see that working, honestly, I think Atkinson did well to get out intact. I'd say the next candidate is Mike D'Antoni, who is a paycheck-grabbing old retread...which is probably exactly what the Hornets: just a day in/day out guy doing his job. 

Quin Snyder resigns as Jazz head coach; (Terry Stotts? Frank Vogel?)

Yeah, Snyder and the Jazz are going in different directions. Snyder was always thought to be in the running for taking over after Popovic in San Antonio (doesn't Becky Hammond going WNBA open the door for Snyder?). So Snyder has had a lot of good years in Utah, but likely that version of the team has peaked and this team is facing a blow up. They could keep Snyder, but they'd have to give him a serious raise to get him to sign a fresh deal when he is clearly eyeballing San Anton, and that's a tough ask for a team that almost guaranteed to be weird next year. I've heard of Stotts and Vogel, two veteran retreads eager to keep getting paid huge money to watch basketball all day, but until we see what they do with Mitchell and/or Gobert, not sure what difference the coach makes. 

Grizzlies extend Taylor Jenkins to multi-year extension

Yeah, they had a good year, pay the man. 

Executives

Kings fire Asst. GM Ken Catanella; Kings exec Joe Dumars resigns

I dunno, who knows what is good for the Kings. New blood is what they're used to, anyway.

Blazers name Joe Cronin as GM, Sergi Oliva as Asst GM

Don't know either of these guys. Good luck, though, rooting for everyone to succeed.

Hornets sigs Mitch Kupchak multi-year extension to remain Prez of Bask Ops

Kupchak has been around forever, Hornets were frustrating before Kupchak arrived, still frustrating now. Worth an extension? I have no idea. Maybe.

Wolves hire Tim Connelly as Prez of Bask Ops

Everyone raves about how great Connelly was in Denver but the record seemed mixed to me. He drafted Jokic and I guess that alone makes him an all-star in the world of the NBA cocktail set, but I wouldn't expect him to do that every year. Good hire? Sure, I guess so. He's high profile, well respected, he's making serious rich guy money, so obviously he's "successful". I mean, if you have the power to anoint such a guy then wouldn't you want such a guy?

Hawks name Landry Fields as GM

I remember Fields as scrappy off the bench guy for the Knicks. Had no idea he had already ascended to GM level, but good for him. Atlanta is a weird job (supposedly) because rather than having a single owner to work with, the Hawks have a series of minority owners, which can make for an unstable bureaucratic nightmare. But then again that provides great power for a clever management guy. Good luck to Fields, seems like a low risk/high reward job.

(*) Is Kenny Atkinson allowed to take another job or is he stuck in Golden State until next summer? He pulled the 'my kids don't want to move' card, which means he can't go anywhere now, right? 

2021-22 NHL Finals

(One) Lightning 3-4 (OT) Avalanche

When the Avalanche got two quick goals and were up 3-1 after the 1st period, felt like they had found something in their relentless attack. But the Lightning tied it up in the 2nd and a scoreless 3rd set up the greatest thing in all of sports: overtime hockey! But, thankfully, the Avalanche scored almost instantly, so rather than wasting my life on a single goal, I got to experience the full (if brief) thrill of overtime hockey without worrying friends and family. 

(Two) Lightning 0-7 Avalanche

This will sound weird but for a guy that gave up seven goals, I thought Tampa Bay's goalie had a pretty resilient match. I'm always so impressed with every single goal, it is so hard to score in hockey, so perhaps I'm overrating this but, damn, man, all seven goals were great shots! You look at a game like this and you figure the defense collapsed (a little but not too bad) or the goalie just had a terrible night (not really). But, no, man, the Avalanche just had the finest shooting performance of their lives. Two ways this can go: either Colorado is just an unstoppable machine or else they just peaked. (Considering the Lightning are the 2-time defending champ, my suspicions are drifting to the latter)

(Three) Avalanche 2-6 Lightning

Colorado scored first but had the goal waived after a video replay showed off-sides (the right call, I guess, but I still hate replay). The reprieve did not last long as the Avalanches quickly got back on the board. Then Tampa Bay seemingly got desperate and dominated possession for a while, resulting in 2 goals and stealing the lead by the end of the 1st. Colorado's attack is relentless, when they get pushed back into the neutral zone, they have an amazing ability to turn the puck back to the offense with a quickness. Even when they're not shooting well, they can still dominate possession. Feels like that's what happened here: Colorado attacked better but Tampa's defense finally came up strong and the Lightning were able to convert more of their chances. Two ways this can go: either Colorado's attack is so overwhelming that they just find a way to outscore Tampa or Tampa's defense has solved Colorado and a slow steady smothering is on the way.

Not sure where this series goes from here: I can totally see Colorado taking the next two games but I can also see Tampa Bay being rejuvenated and winning the next three games. Somehow I foresee a slaughter rather than a rock fight but I'm not sure who is gonna take over. 

2021-22 NBA Finals (Games Five & Six)

Celtics 94-104

Weird game. The Warriors were abysmal from 3-point and yet still won rather comfortably. The roles were reversed as Golden State was up at halftime, the Celtics went on a 3rd quarter run, but couldn't sustain it and the Warriors salted it away in the 4th quarter. Wiggins was magnificent, Draymond was good, Klay was solid, Steph wasn't sharp but still controlled the game and the bench did what they needed to do. The Celtics got nothing from their bench.

Warriors 103-90

Celtics got off to a hot start but by the end of the 1st quarter the Warriors had seized the momentum. From here, the Celtics just couldn't get out of their own way and again, a 3rd quarter surge came up short. Honestly by halftime this game was over, the Celtics were just beat. Warriors are your champs (again) and the Curry was the MVP.

I said Warriors in 5. As far as I'm concerned I was right all the way: if you take out the crazy run the Celtics went on in the 4th quarter of Game One, then the next five games were precisely as I predicted. The Celtics didn't have the depth and the Warriors got better as the series went on. 

The Celtics are good and next season they will hit the ground running and should be a top-3 regular season team in the East. But, as we have seen, they'll need to make a deadline trade to take them deeper in the playoffs. Jaysun Tatum is good but not ready to dominate (and can be neutralized if he isn't shooting effectively early). Jaylen Brown was good throughout this series but isn't enough of a filler-upper to carry a championship team. Marcus Smart played well, didn't hit his peak but avoided his depths, which is an amazing sign of maturation and reliability from a guy who has always been a little wild. I think Al Horford might've retired if the Celtics had won, but he's got one year left on his deal, I think he comes back and plays (and probably, sadly, becomes the trade chip the Celtics need to make an upgrade). Robert Williams was great despite being limited by injuries, but he's strictly a rim protector. Derrick White wasn't particularly good in this series but I think he's still the right guy for this team and starting fresh next season will make for a strong 6-man rotation (*). The bench (Peyton Pritchard, Aaron Nesmith, Grant Williams) should be fine through the regular season but will need to be upgraded (and I'm not anticipating that the #53 pick makes the difference for them). But I really do think that a full season of White in the rotation and a full season of Robert and Grant Williams truly understanding their roles can make a huge difference for this team. And I think the Celtics will be a top quality regular season squad. 

The Celtics were overmatched in this series, they were too reliant on their starting five to win a championship and, let's be honest: the Bucks with Khris Middleton were surely a better team and the Heat with one more Jimmy Butler 3-ball probably goes down to the Warriors in 5. The Warriors are just better--we're gonna look back and be amazed the Warriors got nothing from James Wiseman, Jonathon Kuminga and Moses Moody (and only occasional contributions from Jordan Poole), so the idea that the Celtics even had a chance was pretty daffy.

The Warriors have a tough decision to make and I'm going to go ahead and offer my obviously bad opinion: they should invite Wiggins in, shower him with praise and then as sweetly as possible tell him that there are other teams in the league that will pay more for his services. The Warriors can either have Wiggins or they can stay committed to the homegrown thing--they can't do both (unless they're willing to go into serious debt, which perhaps they are). 

I would strongly implore the Warriors to re-sign Kevon Looney, extend Jordan Poole and do what it takes to bring back Gary Payton II....meaning there's no room for Wiggins. To Wiggins, I would offer to trade him this summer if he wants or play out the final year and then walk (although, the Warriors would likely not be interested in a sign-and-trade because that money will already have been spent, meaning Wiggins should seek a trade now to maximize his next contract).

I know, I know: 'but Wiggins was great in the Finals! And he's kinda perfect as the 4th option on this squad! They'd be crazy to let him go! Looney is imminently replaceable, Payton wasn't that big of a deal and they can still lowball Poole for another year! They should re-up Wiggins now, no matter what it costs!' Yeah, I certainly get that argument. Hell, I've been saying for years that Wiggins is perfect for this team and trading him would be a mistake. But what I'm saying now is that what has brought the Warriors to this next level of greatness is how well they've drafted and building their own dynasty from within--and that's not Wiggins. This summer is about Looney, Poole and Payton; next summer will be about Draymond and Wiseman; the next summer will be about Kuminga and Moody. If they choose Wiggins, they basically give up on all that. And as great as Wiggins was in the Finals, he stands in the way of so much more depth behind door #2.

What do the Warriors do? Trade Wiggins to Sacramento for Harrison Barnes and the #4 pick (I'd recommend taking Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky), giving a future 6-man rotation of Poole, Sharpe, and Moody with Kuminga, Looney and Wiseman...that don't sound bad). One last year of re-connecting the origin of the "dynasty" to the further future and they'd have a healthy trade exception for one last ringchaser (hmmm....don't be shocked if its Al Horford). Sacramento has one year to convince Wiggins (along with his old Warriors coach Mike Brown) to make it work between De'Aron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Could be a waste of time but what has Sacramento ever done that wasn't?

Or...they re-sign Wiggins, let Looney and Payton go, maybe try to extend Poole and overpay going into next summer, when it'll be time to overpay Draymond for 3 more years. Obviously going into next year, they are committed to Wiseman, so perhaps letting Looney go is inevitable either way, but, man, I'm telling ya: without Looney this team gets no rebounds (my way of saying I think Looney is way more important than you realize). If Wiseman blows up, then moving on from Looney will seem like a no-brainer, except that I think Looney and Wiseman can play together and you could've had both. No matter what they do this summer, Wiseman needs to be the focus next season. They will either sink or swim with Wiseman. 

As for the NBA in general: I'll go Bucks over Warriors as my early early early prediction for next year. I got a feeling that watching Jaysun Tatum play an extra month of basketball at his expense will make Giannis feel like he let one slip away. Celtics fans are acting like they had a chance, they did not--but the Bucks did and the real reclamation project will be coming out of Milwaukee, not Boston. 

(*) White was in the "Tiago Splitter role" for this team: his job was to be the low man on the totem pole. When Tatum misses ten shots in a row, the fans aren't going to complain about his poor performance; but if White misses two in a row, the fans will wonder why White is allowed to continue breathing. Hey, man, for some guys their role is to take all the blame whether they deserve it or not simply because the fans have to let off some steam. And that can be an important role--you ever watch the Mavs and wonder why Davis Bertans plays so much? It's because a short-handed team needs a scapegoat. But starting fresh next year, White will be a part of the team on opening night and won't be forced into the goat (the bad goat) role and I think we'll see just how perfect he is for this team. (.....Or he may get traded this summer, we'll see!)

2021-22 NBA FInals (Games Three & Four)

Warriors 100-116 Celtics

Jaysun Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Al Horford were all solid throughout and the refs veered back from the highly pro-Warrior calls of the previous game. The Warriors went on one of their patented 3rd quarter runs and even snatched the lead for a moment (up 83-82), but they couldn't sustain, the Celtics maintained their game plan and the Warriors just sorta melted away in the 4th quarter. 

The rest of the Celtics were nothing special (Derrick White was actually kinda bad) but the Warrior 2nd string didn't make a dent, so all good for the home squad in this one. Again, none of the Celtic starters were especially brilliant but they were all good for four straight quarters, didn't have any dangerous low points and comfortably carried themselves to the win. Grant Williams was productive off the bench, but didn't really stand out and I'm not yet convinced he could be the stand-in if Robert Williams (clearly nursing an injury) is sidelined.  

The troubling aspect for Warriors fans by this point is that Draymond looks washed, dude. In their heyday Draymond was the....hmmm "eye of the storm" is the wrong analogy...he was the chaos at the center that allowed the perimeter to dominate. Draymond scores less than he used to, but that's not a big deal. It's that he doesn't control the game the way he used to. But now Kevon Looney is far more crucial for their success than Draymond...yeah, I said it, totally stand by it. Until the Warriors come to grips with that kick-in-the-crotch realization, they're going to struggle to tread water. Klay Thompson has been okay in this series but I still see one game where he seriously gets off (he might only do that once this entire season, but if he gets one now, it'll be the right time).

Good, methodical W for the Celtics; disappointing, herky-jerky L for the Warriors. 

Warriors 107-97 Celtics

The Warriors just wanted it more, Tatum wasn't in lights-out shooting mode, and the Celtics just couldn't hang down the stretch (Warriors outscored them 15-3 to close the game). 

Steph was brilliant, Poole gave good scoring off the bench, Klay and Wiggins were both nice contributors. I feel like the Celtics were just off their game tonight, that is, I don't feel like the Warriors performance should've finished in such a decisive win. I worried that the Celtics would wear down and I think that could be what we're seeing. 

The Warriors got good defensive minutes out Nemanja Bjelica and this perhaps shows that a platoon of Looney, Bjelica and Gary Payton might be the way to ease back the Draymond playing time without sacrificing scoring or playmaking. I always liked Bjelica and he's playing hungry, baby (I like it and I'd get him more minutes). Payton is like a kid in a candy store and giving good defense for the Warriors. And without Looney, Golden State does not get rebounds. Steph is moving the ball, Wiggins and Klay and Poole keep the scoring going, so replacing Draymond's defensive minutes is the challenge (I still think there's room for Kuminga, I know he's raw but he's athletic and he gives you a little bit of everything, I think he's got a role still in this series).

The Celtics, on the other hand, are built entirely around their starting five. If they lose Robert Williams, if Tatum's nagging shoulder injury flares up, if Horford wears out or if Smart just becomes worst-case-scenario Smart, then the Celtics are in serious trouble because there's no replacement for any of those guys over on the bench. There are no adjustments to make, just stay healthy and bust ass for three more games. 

This series is still air tight. 

Crazy hot take for Game Five: I say this series doesn't go 7 games, I think tonight's winner wraps it up in Game Six. The Celtics need to ball out for two more games because I don't think they've got a third game in them. The Warriors need to de-Draymond-ize their squad and if they don't, they will collapse (but if they do, they should be superior to the Celtics). The Warriors are in flux which will either win or lose this series for them; the Celtics just need to get to the finish line. (Pssst....I'm going Warriors in Five and Six)

2021-22 NBA Finals (Game Two)

Celtics 88-107 Warriors

This was the Draymond game. You could tell early on that Green's mission was to get up under the skin of each and all of the Celtics (especially Al Horford). Draymond's whole shtick is that he talks non-stop throughout games but he (usually) manages to get right to the edge and then pull back without getting thrown out. Rather than being punished by the refs, it seems like they mostly just ignore him, which gives him license to be even worse. The trick for the Celtics: you gotta ignore him the way the refs do, you can't let his chirping stick with you. Well, going forward, anyway, because in this game Draymond got into it with Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and Horford and it felt like he threw each of them off their game. 

I thought the refs would make a difference and they did. Once Draymond established his presence, felt like the Warriors were getting the 50/50 calls and the judgement calls and the Celtics were not. Not that it was a wildly physical game, but it just felt like the refs were subtly shading the Celtics. We'll see if that flips back in Game Three. 

Looking over the box score I was struck how similar the team stats were. Identical on 3-pointers, virtually identical on rebounds, assists, personal fouls. Then the difference jumps out: Warriors got 15 steals to the Celtics' 5 and the Celtics had 18 turnovers to the Warriors' 12. The Celtics in both games have had some seriously errant passing and it killed them in Game Two (almost killed them in Game One). Also, since the Warriors took control of this game so completely in the 3rd quarter (got the lead up to 27 at one point), both teams emptied out their benches (though Jonathon Kuminga still only got 4 minutes), which I really hadn't expected. 

For the Celtics, Jaysun Tatum was back, 28 points (6-9 from 3p), but there is a slight danger to his dominance: the Celtics offense becomes a bit one-note when Tatum is working, whereas in Game One, when Tatum kinda sucked, the onslaught that stole the game for them was a team effort, with big contributions from Horford, Brown, Marcus Smart, and Payton Pritchard. It could be that the little-bit-from-everyone effect might be more useful in this series rather than riding big man Tatum. Ideally, the Celtics will be getting both, but if not then they'll need everyone to contribute. 

For the Warriors, I thought Nemanja Bjelica played well (surprised he only had 11 minutes in box score, really?). Klay Thompson (4-19) still hasn't gotten off yet (though I think he's gonna have a big game in Boston--he might only have one big game in him, but I think he's got at least one) and Andrew Wiggins (4-12) didn't score well either. Looking over the box score, it's kinda hard to see where the points came from. But they piled on to the Celtics in the 3rd.

Also, for the Warriors, they finally got Jordan Poole going and that is significant. It's not that they need Poole to carry them, it's that they need his marginal production to outrun the opponent. Poole is the guy that turns a 4-point lead into a 10-point lead, he turns an 8-point lead into a 15-point lead, etc., and those bursts are crucial to holding off the other team's run (everybody makes a run). 

In Game Three, I expect Brown, Smart and Horford to be big, I'm curious to see if Grant Williams can give Draymond some of his own business, curious to see if/how the refs control the game in general and I think Klay could go off. I would expect Steph Curry to be good and if Poole heats up, the Warriors could win big. But if the refs are more home-friendly and Tatum can just be a reliable contributor rather than the main feature of the offense, I think the Celtics could win big. This is just Game Three, we're all tied up, this series can still be a rout for one team or the other, tonight's match might be an indicator of whether this is a for-real 7-game series or not. 

2021-22 NBA Finals (Game One)

Celtics 120-108 Warriors

Great win for the Celtics! The Warriors were up 87-72 with 1:30 left in the 3rd quarter; from that point on the Celtics outscored the Warriors 48-21 on a combination of wasted possessions by the Warriors and some blistering 3-point shooting by the Celtics (especially Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown). This highlights the one serious flaw the Warriors have long possessed: they don't have a killer instinct. When the Warriors are rolling, they casually outscore everyone they play and don't really have to dig deeper for emotional pleading. But when it gets turned back on them, they flail badly. In this case, I'd point the finger first and foremost at Coach Kerr--hey, man, how about a timeout? The ABC broadcast showed the Warriors huddle when they were down 106-103 and Kerr says, 'we're doing great!' Dude...no you're not! You were up by 15, like, twelve seconds ago and you just got an avalanche dumped on your face! Why didn't Kerr slow down the momentum a little sooner? (The answer, I presume, is that the Warriors just assumed that they'd get hot and take the game back....but they never did)

Another troubling takeaway for the Warriors is that Jordan Poole does not look ready for this. That's a problem because they are going to need him to emerge as a reliable scorer if they plan on outrunning the Celtics. Another problem, is that, outside of Poole, everyone played pretty well and they still got rolled in their own building. Curry was good early on, Porter gave good minutes off the bench and even Iguodala hit some big shots. Draymond's stat line (2-12 from the field) is misleading in the sense that most all of his shots were bailouts at the end of the shot clock, but he needs to be dangerous there if he's going to make a worthwhile contribution.

Also, troubling for the Warriors is that Jaysun Tatum mostly sucked. Celtics fas can talk themselves into the notion that he was still contributing, but his role is to get buckets, not simply 'contribute', so the fact that the Warriors played him out of the game and still lost is not a good sign. Indeed, I'd say only Horford was consistently good for 4 quarters, this should've been a walkover for the Warriors and it went quite horribly wrong in the other direction. 

Is this the end of the road for the Warriors? Well you may recall that in the 2019 playoffs, the Celtics swiped a W in Game One against the Bucks (led by a dominant Al Horford performance, as I recall) but then lost the next four games. We can also look back to the Sixers taking Game One of the 2001 finals before dropping four straight, so the Warriors can still dominate this series.

Can the Celtics do this again? Well, again, considering they didn't get much from Tatum or Grant Williams (not sure he's a fit for this series), floundered badly coming out of halftime and still got a big win, the Celtics are already living on house money for now. Once Tatum gets going (oh, he will), the Celtics should be pretty confident in their scoring. Also, I thought Payton Pritchard had a good game and seems like he's gonna get minutes in this series. (That said, over the course of 7 games, feels like the Celtics aren't as deep and their rotation could get chewed up over the long haul) 

What do the Warriors need to do? They've got to get turnovers from Smart and Brown, they need Jordan Poole to step up and be dominant off the bench and Coach Kerr needs to keep a better eye on the flow of the game. Also, I suspect the refs will make a difference, which would likely favor the Warriors, so knocking down their FT's (something Curry has been strangely shaky on this post-season) is a must. We'll see what Gary Payton II has to offer, too, if he can disrupt the Celtics offense, the scoring onslaught could return to the Warriors side. 

Curious to see where this series goes. If the Celtics can score another shocker tonight, then they can start planning the parade. But the Warriors aren't done, they can play better on both ends--and, again, the refs can be serious game-changers. This series isn't over. All right, I'm ready for ball night!

2021-22 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Warriors over Mavs in 5

Yeah, the Warriors went up 3-0, mailed in Game Four (just as they'd done in Game Five against the Grizzlies in the previous round) and then finished off the series back home. The Mavs were fine, had a good season but just didn't have enough offense to slow the Warriors down. The Mavs seem likely to lose Jalen Brunson, who was an important scorer for them all season, to free agency; I'm sure they'd love to keep him but he's gonna want mad scrill and the Mavs just don't have it. But they do have Tim Hardaway Jr., who missed the entire season to injury, so I kinda expect the Mavs to hit the ground running a little quicker next season and should be in the top 5 in the West next year without much alteration to their roster. The Mavs are good, they go as far as Luka takes them and should be a tough out in next year's playoffs. Do they have moves to make? I don't think so. They'd love to upgrade, they'd love to keep Brunson but they're up against the salary cap (as is most everyone this summer), so I think welcoming back Hardaway is all they've got on the table, which isn't bad. I don't think the Mavs will be better or worse next year, though getting to the conference finals will be a long haul for them, 

Celtic over Heat in 7

I had the Heat in 7 and I was 20 seconds away from being correct, but Jimmy Butler's 3-ball didn't drop and the Celtics escaped. Okay, I may be getting the details wrong but here's what I remember from Game Seven: there were three plays in a row (right?) that stopped the clock and took the air out of the game. Bam Adebayo was called for a foul on Derrick White that was overturned, then Kyle Lowry was called for a block on Jalen Brown that was overturned, then Lowry lost his balance and had to call a weird timeout. All three of those plays were right in a row, right? Anyway, with about 9-10 minutes left in the game, there were several weird breaks in the action and then suddenly the Heat couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. The Celtics pushed the lead back up to 13 and with about 2 minutes to go did that thing that teams do where they're so eager for the game to be over that they just kinda quit playing. Next thing you know, the lead is down to 2 points, Butler gets a steal and with about 20 seconds to go, rises up to take the 3 that would've given them the lead. He missed (*), Celtics get the rebound and escape--ESCAPE!--to the NBA Finals.

Look, the Celtics were the better team, though the Heat had moments. Game Seven was choppy on both sides, the Celtics played better in the 1st quarter, built a nice lead, but otherwise neither team played a complete game. 

The Heat have some moves to make: moving on from Kyle Lowry's big-ass contract is something I'm sure they will look into (who wants him?), they've clearly lost faith in Duncan Robinson (they desperately needed scoring and perimeter D in this series and they still didn't play him!), Victor Oladipo might be an interesting sign-and-trade candidate, they could re-up Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and/or Max Strus (or they could just ride out their current deals), and they'll probably need another scorer (assuming that isn't Oladipo, which I don't think it is). The Heat have a nice core for next season but finishing 1st in the East again doesn't seem likely. They seem like a trade deadline kinda team to me, we'll see.

Championship

Celtics - Warriors

Yeah, I know they b-ball intelligentsia is mixed on this one and I do think this can be interesting match up, but I think the Warriors are vastly better than the Celtics--and I kinda don't understand the people who think otherwise. I like Jaysun Tatum and Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart as much as the next guy, but they are not unstoppable super heroes by any means. They can get hot and ride the momentum and they can just as likely go cold and disappear. I like Robert Williams and Grant Williams, but they've never been here before. I like Al Horford (he was great in Game Seven, would not allow his team to lose!) but he's not enough of a scorer or defensive stopper to make the difference in this series. I like Coach Udoka, but he's never been here before. 

The Warriors are not the classic Warriors, they don't have Durant, I get that. But they're a pretty damn squad and, unlike all those Celtics players, they have been here before. Arguably the most unreliable player on this team is Kevon Looney, who I think is pretty good and is a vastly better player than he was in the 2018 championship (yeah, their crappiest player has played hurt in a championship before! The Celtics don't have anyone like that). The Celtics are vastly--VASTLY--overmatched in this series. Jordan Poole is ready to blow up--and he's not even their 6th man! 

I get that Klay Thompson hasn't been classic Klay much this season, I get that Steph Curry has been good-not-great this post-season, I get that Draymond Green just does not shoot the ball any more. But do you understand that they just won the West in a gentleman's sweep without their best defender, Gary Payton II, who will be back this series. They'll also be getting back Otto Porter, who is better than anything coming off Boston's bench and Andre Iguodala--way past his prime, you say, but still good enough to slow down Horford. Do you think Payton Pritchard will outplay Jonathon Kuminga and/or Moses Moody, because I don't. 

This argument that the Celtics have a tougher road to the championship than the Warriors is not one I agree with: the Celtics got the broken down Nets, the Bucks without Khris Middleton and the Heat, who have no offense beyond Jimmy Butler (and to whom they almost blew a 13-point lead in the final two minutes). Whereas, the Warriors comfortably gave away a game to the broken down Nuggets (you think the KD Nets are wildly better than the Jokic Nuggets? I don't), comfortably gave away a game to the Grizzlies (young but a legit #2 in the West this season) and comfortably gave away a game to the Mavs (perhaps ahead of schedule, but do you think Butler is a better scrorer than Luka right now? I don't). The Warriors have only lost 4 games so far--and 3 of them were giveaways! In the 13 games where the Warriors actually showed up and played, they are 12-1.  

When Jaysun Tatum gets hot, he a serious filler-upper--a Golden State-level filler-upper! But that's really all Boston has to counter the offensive onslaught that the Warriors are bringing. I believe the Warriors can beat the Celtics with Draymond, Looney, half-hearted Steph and full throttle Poole, whereas the Celtics need super human performances from Tatum and Brown and even then they would still need Smart to be perfect and Horford to be better than he's ever been. I love ya, Celtic fans, but I have no idea where your confidence is coming from. (**)

I'll take the Warriors to be 3-0 after Game Three, give away Game Four, then wrap it up in five, just like they've been doing all through the playoffs. Warriors in 5. (Though just to create some drama, I'll say Draymond wins MVP (***))

(*) FWIW, I was totally cool with Butler taking that shot and upon refecltion, I'm still cool with it. That team was going wherever Butler dragged them and if he thought he had the shot, I have no hesitation with him taking it. That said, I also would've been cool with him driving to the basket and getting a bucket to tie the game or going for the hoop-and-harm style 3 (which would've brought down the friggin' house!). This was Butler's team, he was always the guy that was gonna take the shot, I have no problem whatsoever with the shot he took. If it had gone in (I thought it was in), we'd been holding Butler up as a hero (and we'd be lamenting the fact that the Heat have no shot against the Warriors....why do we think the Celtics are beating the Warriors?)

(**) Andrew Wiggins. Didn't even mention him, but he'll be marking Tatum this series. I expect Tatum to outplay Wiggins, I don't expect the rest of the Celtics to outplay the rest of the Warriors. Not even close. 

(***) One last thought experiment to illustrate the difference btw the Warriors and the Celtics. If Jordan Poole turned out to be the best player in this series, I would not be shocked; if Poole turned out to be the 10th best player and the Warriors won anyway, I would not be shocked. The Celtics have nothing on their side that even comes remotely close to that. If Marcus Smart turned out to be the best player in this series, I would be shocked--and I still wouldn't expect the Celtics to win!; if Smart is the 10th best player, there is no way in hell the Celtics could possibly come close to winning. Do you see what I'm saying? The Celtics need Tatum and Brown and Smart to be perfect--and that alone won't be enough! The Warriors have any number of permutations of their lineup that could still win the championship. I just don't see how the Celtics are even close in this series. We'll see.