2025-26 NBA Finals

East

Knicks over Cavs in 4

Game One saw the Cavs pretty well stomp their way through NY for 3.5 quarters and then....well, they just stopped. The Cavs had a 22 point lead with 7 minutes to go and then Donovan Mitchell disappeared and their offense became a nightmare of James Harden dribbling dribbling dribbling and then taking a bad shot, while everyone watching kept wondering why Coach Atkinson never called a time out. Jalen Brunson woke up, went off and frankly the Cavs were lucky to tie it up and take it to OT--where they continued to suck. 

That was it for the Cavs. The next three games weren't even worth playing, the Knicks picked back up the heater they went on against the Hawks and Sixers and just smooshed the Cavs. Knicks fans are ecstatic, Cavs fans are still hitting the Pepto.

Where do the Cavs go? Well, considering that James Harden is the one they're probably most stuck with even though he's the one they ought to be finding a new home for, there's probably not much for the Cavs to do. The one that will get dumped is Jarrett Allen but he's the least expensive of their core and against the Pistons I thought he finally found his niche next to Evan Mobley. Bbut he's the one I most expect to see in a new uni next season. I dunno, man, I don't see the Cavs being better next year, whereas the Pacers and Hawks should be much better, the Heat seem primed for a big move, the Hornet are finally moving in the right direction and the Wizards shouldn't suck, so there's some urgency for the Cavs to at least maintain what they've got. Feels like this version of the Cavs peaked this year. 

West

Spurs over Thunder in 7

Game One was a classic, Game Seven was a classic, the other five games were just kinda watchable. Its easy to say the Spurs have arrived, but considering the Thunder were largely without Jalen Williams and Ajah Mitchell and that Chet Holmgren played as bad as he's probably ever played in his life, the Thunder were still in Game Seven with a coupla minutes to go. The Thunder were actually pretty bad and still could've won, so I don't think this rivalry is done--indeed, I'd be kinda shocked if anyone other than the Spurs and Thunder made the Conference Finals in the next 3 years.

Meanwhile, the Spurs perfectly rounded into shape: Fox was finally really good, Dillon Harper was excellent, Stephon Castle was pretty fuckin' great, Devin Vassell did a little bit of everything, Wemby was Wemby--and they still needed a (now) legendary chase down block by Luke Kornet to preserve the W. (*) 

This series was much closer than it looked. If I was OKC, I'd sign Cason Wallace, let go of Lu Dort, see if I could package their two 1st rounders to move up in the draft, think long and hard about bringing back Hartenstein, and roll the dice with Tomas Sorber and Nikola Topic in the rotation next year. Again, the Thunder were as bad as they've been in a while in this series and they still had their chance to win it. This Thunder run is far from over and I don't think desperate measures are necessary just yet. 

Finals

Knicks @ Spurs

This Spurs run has been about them figuring out their opponents: the Blazers stole a game from them, then the Spurs shut them down; the Wolves had moments against Wemby but once the Spurs got their number, it was over; the Thunder were pesky but the Spurs won the two classic games and outside of a strange letdown in Game Three, were generally the better team. I still say this is De'Aaron Fox's team and when he's right, that is peak Spurs. They're good around him, they're good without him, but he keeps them focused and moving forward, Fox is the key to this team. 

Wemby is Wemby. He's still young and he hasn't really yet built up to this level of play, but he's really good right now and a virtually impossible match up for every team in the league. Castle is turning into a star, so is Harper. Vassell and Bryant are solid contributors and Kornet and Harrison Barnes are still valuable to this young team. 

The Knicks were a nice--not great--team all season long. Then after going down 2-1 to the Hawks in the 1st round, the switch got flipped and they have pummeled everyone and everything ever since. One can point out that they didn't have to play the Celtics or Pistons in their run through the East, but if the Knicks were playing like this, I can confidently say they would've pummeled the Pistons and the Celtics. The Celtics were begging to lose and the Pistons were just too one-dimensional, neither of them would've given the Knicks much of a game, I'd say. 

Yes, the Spurs have faced superior competition than the Knicks have so far, but that doesn't matter now. Furthermore, the Blazers--even at their best--weren't as good as the Spurs this year; the Wolves were forced to give big minutes to Mike Conley after Donte Divincenzo got hurt and the Thunder were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, which severely limited their offense. The Spurs' opponents had their flaws, too, so the path to the Final is not that meaningful to me this year. 

The Spurs didn't play anyone as offensively dynamic as the Knicks, nor anyone with the swagger (whether deserved or not) of the Knicks. The Knicks are playing better than the Thunder right now and the Spurs didn't exactly run the Thunder out of the gym. 

I still say the Knicks are at their best when Towns is the offensive focus, but there's no way that'll work for 7 games. But I think they can get 2 Towns games and 2 Brunson games and win it all. Anunoby has been great all post-season, Mikal Bridges took a while to get going but he was great against the Cavs, Josh Hart isn't gonna quit and he is guaranteed to make a handful of big plays in this series and if they can get anything out of Landry Shamet, they could run up the score if the Spurs give a listless performance. The Knicks will really need Mitchell Robinsn, for at least 4-5 games, if they get that, the Knicks will be the better team.

Wemby is great but at this point he is still additive, not a cornerstone. Castle and Harper, too, are additive, I don't see either of them taking over games at this level. Fox has to outplay Towns and/or Brunson for 4 games and while that is possible, it is a tough ask. 

I think the Knicks are ready for this, while the Spurs are on house money. I got the Knicks in 6.

(*) Oh, and Carter Bryant looks like another badass in waiting. 

2025-26 Champions League Semifinals, Final

1st Leg

Paris-St Germain 5-4 Bayern Munich

Man, I thought Bayern's two games against Real Madrid in the qaurters were the two best matches I'd see this year--nope! This opening leg leapfrogged both of those games. Back and forth action, both teams were capable of scoring or taking over at a moment's notice. I thought PSG was the best team in the whole tourney and I had Bayern 3rd behind Real Madrid (whom they beat), this is your championship right here. Do not miss the 2nd Leg! 

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal

Tight, both teams were competent but rarely felt like either team was ever gonna break through on the other. Two penalty kicks were all they could muster. Two evenly matched teams, neither as good as the two squads on the other side of the bracket, but both capable of giving those squads a serious sludge match. Just as good as PSG-Bayern but in the opposite direction. Good stuff.  

2nd Leg

Bayern Munich 1-1 (agg 5-6) Paris-St Germain

PSG found the net almost instantly in this game and on the one hand, man, a two goal lead felt insurmountable; on the other other hand, I immediately thought "this isn't the only goal we're gonna get in this game!" While the game had some furious offense, it wasn't until extra time that Bayern finally scored. I was a little surprised that these offenses that have just blasting people for weeks on end couldn't get more scoring going, but it was a competitive, entertaining back and forth game. (One note: I thought the ref did not have good game, took him a while to really establish control of the match and that alone may have thrown off Bayern's attack)

Arsenal 1-0 (2-1) Atletico Madrid

Another tight one, Arsenal found a sliver of space right before halftime and that was all it took. I thought Atletico was the better team but they just couldn't break through, just couldn't find the goal. Arsenal is a good team that stays within its team defense and makes the most of its counter-attacks. Nothing flashy, they just dug in and got it done against a solid squad. 

Final Prediction

Arsenal has slogged their way to the final without a high powered offense or even a noteworthy defense; they play as a single unit and when they keep themselves in check, they're just a mighty tough out. They don't seem like the kind of squad you typically see in the Champions League final, they're a workmanlike side that moves in lockstep and plays opportunistic offense, rather than riding some hot shot up front. I don't want to diss them, they're a hell of a squad, but I don't feel the star power of this side, just their team concept. Is that enough to slow PSG?

PSG goes and goes and goes and that alone outscores most everyone they play. They don't have Neymar or Messi or Mbappe any more, but they still feel loaded with stars and above average role players. They recover well and counter attack like the Showtime Lakers, they are not intimidated and I expect them to control the match from beginning to end. But that doesn't mean they'll score or that they'll escape Arsenal's opportunism.

I think this goes to OT. PSG is too furious to give Arsenal many chances, but Arsenal can bunker with the best of them and I don't think either team will get much done against the other. An extra 30 minutes should probably favor PSG, but I think it goes to PK's--and that's a coin flip. Can't wait! 

Final

Arsenal 1-1 Paris-St. Germain (PSG wins on PKs)

Arsenal scored an early goal and that felt like the best possible way to start the game: it would force PSG to ramp up the offense right away. But PSG struggled in the 1st half, Arsenal's tight D made it tough to get much going beyond midfield. PSG opened up a bit after halftime but a PK (the right call) was all they could muster. That said, I thought the 2nd half was exciting stuff, both teams had chances but both played even better defense. I predicted OT and PKs and I was right. Just kept waiting for PSG to find a way through the Arsenal backline but after 120 mins, it just didn't happen. 

I used to hate PKs but I've come to enjoy them, good tension and this one was no exception. Arsenal acquitted themselves admirably all the way through the tourney this year and they had their chance.  Hail PSG, back to back champs!