Friday, June 29, 2018

2018 World Cup (Round of 16 predictions)

France - Argentina -- Hmmmm....France got here through some of the luckiest, blandest play of the tourney, while Argentina has ridden a roller coaster of luck to the knockout stage. Argentina has the most talent (and expectation) but they're also kinda old and formless and rely too much on Messi (great when he's great, but the 2nd half of that Nigeria game he was spraying passes all over the place). France has a good identity and haven't really been tested so far, but they'll have to kick it up a notch to get the W. I like France to get it done (and Argentina to go home extremely grumpy).

Uruguay - Portugal -- I'm not a huge fan of Uruguay, they play with more expectation than savvy, though so far it's worked for them. They've got power up front and I think they're sneaky good on D, as well. Portugal has mostly just been whatever Ronaldo can summon up, which has worked so far but I can't help thinking that's not a long term plan for success. Uruguay can keep the ball, too, and if they push forward they can get goals. I'll take Uruguay.

Spain - Russia -- Spain still has some of that mid-field greatness that dominated the world for a stretch but they're not as dangerous around the goal and not as rock steady in the back as their peak years. Russia plays with a great intensity, which has served them well against lesser opponents but not so much against the better ones. Spain is one of the better ones. I'll take Spain.

Croatia - Denmark -- Denmark has been one of the blandest squads in the entire tourney, only a questionable goal against Peru has brought them this far. Croatia, on the other hand, is solid with the ball and is arguably the best team so far. I've got to stick with Croatia because they've got the best combination of talent and strategy.

Brazil - Mexico -- Brazil has played well enough to win and while they surely have the quality to dropkick anyone on the right day, they feel too reliant on Neymar (*) when they ought to be more Spain-like in their midfield dominance. Mexico is not afraid of Brazil, they've always played well against them. Mexico saw against Sweden the downside of playing for a draw, I expect them to come out aggressive in this one. I like Mexico to get a lead and hold it. I'll take Mexico.

Belgium - Japan -- Belgium was my pre-tourney pick to get to the Final and though that D is shaky, I still like their chances to keep winning. Japan is reliable but unspectacular. They won't let the Belgians dominate them but I don't think they'll get enough opportunities to make the most of Belgium's weak backline. I'll take Belgium.

Sweden - Switzerland -- Sweden has the athletes and the expectation, but they seem hesitant at times and if they fall behind they may completely crumble. Switzerland is sly, they've got a sturdy stay-at-home defense and good ball handling in the midfield. I like Switzerland.

Colombia - England -- This one'll be fun. Colombia came in as one of the favorites only to get punked by Japan in their opener. If James Rodriguez is hurt, that'll put a serious crunch on their ability to score. England is young and unpredictable but they know what they're doing around the goal. I have no real sense of either midfield, I suspect this will be a long ball over the top kinda game for both teams. I expect a lot of wide open action with plenty of dangerous chances for both teams. I like England to pull it out (possibly in penalty kicks).


(*) I know Neymar is a badass, he's a star, he's the 3rd all time leading scorer for the mighty Brazilians, but--is it me?--he does not seem head and shoulders above most of his teammates. I dunno, man, I've never been as impressed with Neymar as I should be, we'll see if he can put together a classic run.

2018 World Cup (Groups E-H)

E
Brazil -- Not exactly overpowering their opponents so far, but they're comfortably moving into the next round. Coutinho has been their star so far but the injury to Marcelo is worrying, that guy does a lot for them coming out of the back. Still one of the best squads out there even if it feels like they haven't discovered their best form yet.

Switzerland -- I've always been kinda lukewarm on Switzerland but they've impressed me so far. They played Brazil to a standstill and finished a great comeback against Serbia. They've got some sneaky quality up front, sturdy in the back, they're gonna be a tough out going forward.

Serbia -- The poor man's Croatia? Had their moments, I thought they'd get the better of Switzerland but they let that one get away and weren't the same after that. Solid if unspectacular squad. I have no idea how they'll do in Euro 2020.

Costa Rica -- Costa Rica still has some crafty to them but they let Serbia get away and couldn't get past Switzerland either. In 2014 I thought Costa Rica was an underappreciated side, this time they never had enough offense to move ahead. They're usually good, I expect them to be back in 2022.


F
Sweden -- I dunno, man, I was never that impressed with them. They have quality but the scoring chances up front don't tend to get finished and in the back there are holes up the middle. They've made it this far, I suspect they go down to Switzerland in the next round.

Mexico -- They came out strong against Germany (doesn't seem that great in hindsight, does it?) and were thoroughly in control against South Korea. But they played for the scoreless draw against Sweden and then kinda folded after giving up that first goal because they had nowhere to go after that. Troubling result considering how confident they looked early on. Mexico tends to play Brazil close, if they can score early they can shock the world but if they give up a quick goal, can they come back and make a game of it?

South Korea -- They're steadily getting better, they had a frustrating tourney that ended with them punching Germany in the teeth--which must've felt great for those guys! They've got athletes, they've got tactics, as soon as they get some lucky, they'll be a for-real dangerous side. They've become a routine participant in the Cup, I fully expect them to be back in 2022.

Germany -- Man, never seen this guys this low. They spun their wheels against Mexico, pulled out a lucky W in the final seconds against Sweden and never could get anything going against South Korea. Germany getting knocked out in the group stage is like a summer Star Wars movie flopping (oh, yeah, that happened, too, huh?). Who wants to play them in the opening match of Euro 2020?

G
Belgium -- They were my pick to make it to the Final (and still are, by the way), so while I was impressed with their offensive firepower (Lukaku is the MVP of the group stage?), I'm troubled by their rickety defense. Yes, they have injuries which I suppose could resolve themselves as their tourney continues, but fixing the tire while the car is driving is a tough task (impossible, actually, but you know what I mean). I'm open to the idea that they're the best team out there but you can see how they lose, too: that D sags on the wings giving plenty of opportunities for dangerous crosses. They're one of the only teams out there that can seriously plan on outscoring their opponents, but they'll need defense, too. We'll see of they get any.

England -- This is the best England squad we've seen in a while and they definitely look frisky up front. But I'm not sure they have the holding strength to control a game. We'll see, they can score but it feels like they can leave themselves open to disappointment, too. I think they can keep winning games going forward, their bracket is favorable. English fans definitely have hope for Euro 2020.

Tunisia -- They had some spunky moments. They held up well against England and though they kinda got plowed by Belgium, they got their licks in, too. Good win against Panama, felt like they were gonna sleepwalk through that game but they balled out in the 2nd half and pulled out a good W. Africa is really fluid but I wouldn't be surprised to see them back in 2022, thought they good talent from front to back.

Panama -- Yeah, they were the worst team here. As a fellow CONCACAF-er, watching them made me wonder how USA failed to get here (two words: Jurgen Klinsmann). They've got some spunk to them, but no attack and no defense equals no W's in the World Cup. I do not expect to see them in 2022.

H
Colombia -- They were my pre-tourney choice to win it all and they certainly do not look capable of that after these three games. I thought they kinda got lucky at best. They got beat by Japan (Colombia gave that game away, though), bounced back nicely against Poland and did just enough to get the W against Senegal. Falcao has played well but if Rodriguez is hurt they could be in some trouble (though he's done not much so far).

Japan -- Japan plays a clean classy style of football. They remind me of Vanderbilt basketball: they may not have the athletes, but they're smart, they don't make mistakes and if you fuck around, they'll beat ya. They're crafty, can they sneak through Belgium's back line? Normally I would easily say I expect Japan to be in the next Cup but considering fellow Asian country Qatar will be sucking up the host slot, not sure how that affects the rest of Asian qualifying. But they'll probably be in there.

Senegal -- I was generally impressed with Senegal. Their victory over Poland was legit (Senegal was better), drew a hardfought contest with Japan (one of the better games of the Group stage), and kinda got unlucky against Colombia (thought they deserved better). Africa is fluid, never know who's coming out there but I wouldn't be surprised to see Senegal again in 2022.

Poland -- Never got any offense going, a thoroughly bland squad on both sides. I expected them to bring more control and be dangerous around the goal but I never saw any of that. They got run by Senegal and Colombia and pulled out a close one to Japan, who didn't need a result. Not an impressive showing for Poland. Considering how bland they were and how kinda old they looked up front, I don't expect to see Poland in 2022 (curious to see if they can get something going in Euro 2020).

2018 World Cup (Groups A-D)

A
Uruguay -- Sailed through with 3 wins, though 1-0 wins over Egypt and Saudi Arabia were hardly convincing, as they didn't have to face Mo Salah in the first game or a good team in the second.  They finally got it together against Russia, laying a 3-0 smackdown on the previously unbeaten hosts. They can still get hot and be a great team but they mostly got lucky in the group stage.

Russia -- These guys came out in all three games hard and fast, which never seemed sustainable. Fortunately they scored quick ones against Saudi Arabia (which eased them into a 5-0 drubbing) and Egypt (which they rode into a 3-1 victory). But they never found their footing against Uruguay and floundered for 90 minutes. So is Russia actually any good? Can't really tell. They cruised so easily through the first two matches and struggled so mightily against the one good team they played that we saw the template for how they win (early success) and how they lose (getting overpowered by strong strikers).

Saudi Arabia -- Man, that opening night loss must've been a real drag for them but they played well against Uruguay and scored a W against Egypt. Nice to finish 3rd but make no mistake: they're one of the worst teams in the tourney. They've generally done well in Asia but with Qatar sucking up an automatic bid, not sure Saudi Arabia will be back for in 2022.

Egypt -- Nearly pulled out a draw against Uruguay without their star, Mo Salah, but they ran into a host nation playing with their hair on fire and got swept under. Failing to pick up a consolation W against a weak Saudi Arabia side completes their steady decline through the group. Not a good showing from Egypt. Africa is very fluid with 10-ish teams fighting for 5-ish spots, though you gotta figure Mo Salah should still be strong enough to get them back for 2022.

B
Spain -- If you squint you can still see the outline of the great Spain side that rolled everyone for 5 straight years: they've still got the amazing ball control but the defense isn't as solid and the goal-scoring has eroded, too. Their opening draw against Portugal was maybe the best game of the whole tourney but Iran gave them a great game and Morocco did, too, Spain was lucky to get results in those matches. From here on, Spain will be in every game but they probably need to get to penalty kicks to score wins. Still a strong side but not the dominant one that will inspire terror in their opponents.

Portugal -- Ronaldo started off inspired, scoring a hat trick in the opening game (a classic for the ages). But, after an early goal against Morocco they mailed it in for 90 minutes and then fought for their lives against Iran, narrowly avoiding getting eliminated in the last minute. Okay, they got it up for Spain and then dogpaddled their way into the knockout phase. Clearly Ronaldo is in line for the Golden Boot but not sure the rest of the squad is scary enough to get wins.

Iran -- Got a lucky result against Morocco in the first game but went toe-to-toe with Spain and Portugal, though they seem to have wasted all their luck in the opener. I was generally pretty impressed with them, a little more luck against Spain, a little more work against Portugal and they'd be moving on. I fully expect to see them in 2022.

Morocco -- Meh. They should've beaten Iran, could've had a completely different result against Portugal if they hadn't given up an early goal and went back and forth with Spain. But none of those games turned out for them, kinda hard to tell what kind of team they are. Africa is fluid, I have no idea whether Morocco will be back in 2022.

C
France -- They didn't exactly impress against Australia or Peru and their 3rd game against Denmark was the lamest game of the whole tourney (so far). So....are they any good? I'm not sure. They finished 1st in the group, earning them a chance to match up with Argentina, a game that could go in any direction.

Denmark -- Their opening win against Peru was a fluke (I'll remember the 2018 World Cup as the one where they stopped calling off-sides), they got lucky against a so-so Australia squad, and they were happy to play a boring nothing game against France. So is Denmark any good? No idea. I watched all three games and got no picture of the team at all outside of a solid goalkeeper. My gut is they'll get throttled by Croatia in the next match.

Peru -- Soccer is a harsh game. I can't help thinking Peru deserved to move on more than Denmark or France. They got jobbed against Denmark (the dude was off-side! He looked off-side live, he looked off-side in the replay, the dude was off-side!) and gave France an even match. Scoring an easy W over Australia was a nice biscuit for them but I'd rather see them in the next round. This was their first Cup appearance in ages, I'm guessing they're not likely to be back in 2022.

Australia -- Much better than I anticipated (I've never been impressed by Australia) but they gave France a game and played Denmark to a standstill before getting tooled by Peru--who was secretly the class of this group. Australia has never been very good but they're back in the Cup again and again, so I guess they'll be in Qatar in 2022.

D
Croatia -- Arguably they've been the best, most complete team so far. I didn't see their opening W against Nigeria (who is the Fox Deportes exec who decided to play the entire World Cup...except one game?) but that 3-0 victory over Argentina was no fluke--they were better than Argentina in every way. Didn't see the Iceland match but if they outscored that rock solid defense, then it must've been a good win. They have so much talent in the mid-field, they'll control games going forward. I expect them to be much better than Denmark and make a serious run to the end.

Argentina -- Well, that was lucky! Iceland played them to a standstill (if Messi hits that PK, this whole tournament seems totally different, no?), then Croatia dropped a serious whoopin' on them and the panic set in. Pulling out a W against Nigeria saved everyone's bacon but they have not impressed so far. They can beat France but they could also get run out of the stadium--those are the games you wanna watch!

Nigeria -- The 1998 Nigeria side was one of my all-time favorite teams to watch but they weren't able to keep up the talent pool after that, so Nigeria is usually the class of Africa but never seems terribly dangerous in the big show. Getting beat by Croatia is nothing be ashamed of, finally blasting through Iceland's D was a good victory, but failing to hold on to that Argentina game will haunt them. We'll never know if they could've beaten France in the next round, I'm guessing that'll inspire them to be back in 2022.

Iceland -- They were a pleasant surprise in the 2014 Euro and kept the vibe alive through that hard fought draw with well-respected Argentina. But they seemed absolutely gassed by the end of that Nigeria match such that hanging tough with Croatia is a respectable close to the tourney for them. Curious to see them in 2020 Euro but they seem an unlikely combatant at Qatar 2022.

Friday, June 22, 2018

2018 NBA Draft Day Trades

1st round
Hawks trades #3 (Luke Doncic) to Mavs for #5 (Trae Young) and Mavs 2019 1st rd pick
Mavs get the guy they want, throwing in an extra 1st round pick (lottery protected) is worth it--the Mavs will be more than happy to send that pick out next summer. And the Hawks get the guy they want and a bonus 1st rounder next year. Good move for both teams.

Hornets trade #11 (Shai Gilegeous-Alexander) to Clippers for #12 (Miles Bridges) and 2 future 2nd round picks
So the Clippers, a team unlikely to play rookies and whose best offensive weapon is PG Lou Williams, end up picking two PG's on the day PG Austin Rivers picked up his option? Ooookay, there's a master plan at work that I don't see I guess. And the Hornets who are likely needing a replacement (sooner or later) for ball dominant PG Kemba Walker traded away the top PG available for another defensive minded SF, when they already have a collection of those? Uhhhh....okay. I don't get this trade--oh, wait, the Hornets get a coupla Clippers 2nd round picks, too, so, yeah, it all makes sense now.

Sixers trade #10 (Mikal Bridges) to Suns for #16 (Zhaire Smith) and Heat 2021 1st rd pick
The Suns trade up for a promising SF and all it cost them was a far off in the future 1st round pick from a team that doesn't like to lose; this was a low cost step up for them (though I kinda like Smith in a Suns uni). The Sixers get a good defensive-minded wingman (to platoon with Covington, I presume) and get to throw another Hinkie-esque future 1st rounder on the pile. Since the Sixers couldn't trade up, they did well to trade back.


2nd round
Hornets get #34 (Devote Graham); Hawks get two 2nd round picks
Okay, well, those picks the Hornets got from the Clippers went to Atlanta for Devonte Graham...so he's their PG of the future? Or perhaps they didn't really care for Gilgeous-Alexander and worked it for a 2nd rounder? Still feels like the Hornets worked really hard to get a so-so player with a so-so pick. Hawks get some future 2nd rounders to feed their process. (I thought this pick was trade bait, but I thought it would be Gary Trent going to Golden State)

Blazers get #37 (Gary Trent Jr); Kings get two 2nd round picks and cash
(I thought Gary Trent was trade bait...I kinda had it) Blazers get another combo guard to throw on the pile (McCollum is on the way out?). Kings get future 2nd rounders to feed their process, which is better than another youngster now, they've got a full bodied youth movement already.

Pistons get #38 (Khyri Thomas); Sixers get two 2nd round picks
Pistons get an intriguing combo guard in the 2nd round, a low cost method to add some young talent. Sixers...shit, man, they invented the process--did 2nd round picks even exist before Sam Hinkie?

Nuggets get #41 (Jarred Vanderbilt); Magic get #43 (Justin Jackson), a future 2nd rd pick
The Nuggets get a terrific athlete that won't probably make their roster; the Magic swap out one athlete for another and get a bonus 2nd rounder. I wouldn't have paid that much for Vanderbilt but if he's the guy they wanted then it was worth it, I guess.

Thunder get #45 (Hamado Diallo); Hornets get cash (just cash?)
If the Thunder were looking for low cost wing scoring, they probably could've done better than Diallo. As for the Hornets, new GM Mitch Kupchak has made a ton of moves lately but does this add up: they traded #11 to get #12 and two 2nd rd picks, when they already had a 2nd round pick that they didn't want...? Wha...? Is Kupchak getting paid by the transaction?

Rockets get #52 (Vince Edwards); Jazz get cash
So were the Rockets targeting Edwards or was #52 the best pick they could afford? At this point in the draft, why not just wait for him to go undrafted and then sign him as a super-cheap free agent? Jazz didn't need the pick, got paid for it.

Mavs get #56 (Ray Spalding) and #60 (Kostas Antetokounpo); Sixers get #54 (Shake Milton)
I kinda like Milton, thought he had a better shot at making the league with the Mavs rather than the Sixers but he's probably a G-Leaguer either way. Mavs get an Antetokounpo sibling to go with their Curry sibling and an interesting big man. Pretty even trade, none of these guys will matter but Spalding probably gets a better shot in Dallas than in Philly.

2018 NBA Draft Reactions (46-60)

Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State), Malik Newman (Kansas), Shake Milton (SMU), De'Anthony Melton (Southern Cal), Brandon McCoy (UNLV) still out there.

46) Houston Rockets -- PG De'Anthony Melton (Southern Cal)
They need a confident ball handler and passer at this position, if he's reliable with the ball he might catch on for them.

47) LA Lakers -- SG Sviatoslav Mykhailuk (Kansas)
He was streaky at Kansas, if he can settle down he can stick in the NBA (but I'm skeptical).

48) Minnesota Timberwolves -- PF Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State)
Seems like a good pick for the Wolves (except that I don't expect Thibs to play a 2nd round rookie).

49) San Antonio Spurs -- PF Chimezie Metu (Southern Cal)
Good size, if he works hard he can be useful for the Spurs.

50) Indiana Pacers -- PF Alize Johnson (Missouri State)
He was a 1st round prospect in mock drafts all year long, not sure why he slipped recently. Either he was overrated to begin with or the Pacers got themselves a steal.

51) New Orleans Pelicans -- PG Tony Carr (Penn State)
Pelicans need all the wing scoring they can get, if he can score then he can get minutes.

52) Utah Jazz -- SF Vincent Edwards (Purdue)
I don't know Edwards. The only senior drafted?

53) Oklahoma City Thunder -- SG Devon Hall (Virginia)
Virginia players are smart and disciplined, probably G-League filler.

54) Dallas Mavs -- PG Shake Milton (SMU)
I liked Milton, he's a great pick up for the Mavs.

55) Charlotte Hornets -- SF Arnoldas Kubolka (Italy)
Great Euro stash pick.

56) Philadelphia Sixers -- PF Raymond Spalding (Louisville)
Nice player, not a lot of room in Philly, probably a G-Leaguer.

57) Oklahoma City Thunder -- SF Kevin Hervey (UT-Arlington)
Another prospect that had some 1st round buzz throughout the year. Feels like he has a decent shot at catching on with the Thunder.

58) Denver Nuggets -- C Thomas Welsh (UCLA)
Hard to imagine cracking the roster with the Nuggets.

59) Phoenix Suns -- George King (Colorado)
Don't know King. Been a great influx of talent for the Suns, feels like King is a G-Leaguer.

60) Philadelphia Sixers -- PF Kostas Antetokounpo (Dayton)
Yeah, sure, why not? Knicks already whiffed on an Antetokounpo, Sixers got enough talent to give him a shot.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

2018 NBA Draft Reactions (31-45)

31) Phoenix Suns -- PG Elie Okobo (France)
Lot of buzz about this kid, France is awash in young talent these days. The Suns are killing it tonight, this is a another great pick.

32) Memphis Grizzlies -- PG Jevon Carter (West Virginia)
He had some moments at WVU. The Grizzlies ran through just about every available PG last year, Carter has a good shot at being their 2nd string PG.

33) Dallas Mavs -- PG Jalen Brunson (Villanova)
He was impressive at Villanova, could be a nice 2nd string PG behind Dennis Smith.

34) Atlanta Hawks -- PG Devonte Graham (Kansas)
Another undersized Big 12 PG? The Hawks have a type, I guess. I would've thought Gary Trent Jr would've been good trade bait for the Warriors here.

35) Orlando Magic -- SF Melvin Frazier (Tulane)
Frazier had some good buzz at Tulane, another athletic SF for the Magic.

36) New York Knicks -- C Mitchell Robinson (USA)
Knicks just lost Kyle O'Quinn, could be losing Kanter, too. This gives them a shot at some size down low.

37) Sacramento Kings -- G Gary Trent Jr (Duke)
Another nice youngster to throw in the mix in Sacto.

38) Philadelphia Sixers -- G Khryi Thomas (Creighton)
I thought he was a 1st round talent, great pick up for the Sixers.

39) LA Lakers -- SF Isaac Bonga (Germany)
A good Euro to stash for next year.

40) Brooklyn Nets -- SF Rodion Kurucs (Barcelona)
Plenty of room in the Nets rotation for another Euro winger. Good pick, he should play right away.

41) Orlando Magic -- SF Jarred Vanderbilt (Kentucky)
Hell of an athlete, though I question his talent for the game of basketball. He can move well, play defense and grab rebounds, so he'll be a useful practice player with some good upside.

42) Detroit Pistons -- SG Bruce Brown (Miami)
Could be a low cost rotation guy for the Pistons, considering this is the only draft pick and they have no money for free agents.

43) Denver Nuggets -- PF Justin Jackson (Maryland)
The Nuggets are already well-stocked there, feels like he's a G-League guy for them.

44) Washington Wizards -- PG Issuf Sanon (Serbia)
Either a Euro stash or just Summer League filler, feels like the Wizards have plenty of PG depth at the moment.

45) Brooklyn Nets -- SG Hamidou Diallo (Kentucky)
He might bring some wing scoring off the bench (though I wasn't hugely impressed by Diallo's game at Kentucky). He's a Summer League player.

2018 NBA Draft Reactions (15-30)

15) Washington Wizards -- SG Troy Brown (Oregon)
I would've thought a big man like Robert Williams was a better fit here or at least a more defensive minded SG like Zhaire Smith, but if Brown can score he'll get in the rotation.

16) Phoenix Suns -- SG Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)
Another good addition for the Suns. They needed some defensive toughness and they added that in the front and back court with their first two picks.

17) Milwaukee Bucks -- SG Donte DiVincenzo (Villanova)
Bucks are known for gambling in the draft, I would've thought they'd reach for unknown Anfernee Simmons or a foreigner like Dznan Musa. But they could use wing scoring, I suppose. If he can score off the bench, he'll fit in just fine. (I'm more intrigued by Lonnie Walker, though)

18) San Antonio Spurs -- SG Lonnie Walker (Miami)
Either a complement or replacement for Kawhi. Don't think of the Spurs as a youth movement kinda team but Kawhi's on the table, Rudy Gay is already gone, Tony Parker is probably on the way out and they may be looking to replace Danny Green and/or Pau Gasol, too. The Spurs are in flux for the first time in 20 years, Walker may well get a lot of playing time.

19) Atlanta Hawks -- SG Kevin Huerter (Maryland)
The Hawks have drafted big guys recently, this draft is all about re-working the front court. Trae Young is a smaller guy but Huerter adds size on the wing. The Hawks have two new playmakers to lead them forward (oh, and Dennis Shroeder is definitely available now....for the Knicks?).

20) Minnesota Timberwolves -- SG Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech)
Seems like a reach but if he's the guy they want, then it's a good pick. I thought they might go for a PG here (kinda thought Elie Okobo might be their guy) but if Okogie can score or play hardcore defense, then he'll add to the rotation (if Thibs starts playing rookies).

21) Utah Jazz -- SG Grayson Allen (Duke)
Okay. I thought they might go for size (say, Robert Williams) but adding toughness on the wing is a good move for the Jazz. They're looking for 3-and-D work and Allen is a good choice here.

22) Chicago Bulls -- SF Chandler Hutchinson (Boise State)
I don't know Hutchinson but size-wise he seems a perfect fit for the Bulls youth movement.

23) Indiana Pacers -- PG Aaron Holiday (UCLA)
Pacers are kinda PG-heavy (I would've though Khyri Thomas was the guy here) but I like Holiday's potential so the Pacers probably did well to draft the best available.

24) Portland Trail Blazers -- SG Anfernee Simmons (high school)
I see him listed as an SG but that 3rd string PG slot is open for the Blazers, if Simmons can handle the ball he'll get minutes. I didn't see this experimental pick as the natural move for the Blazers (they could be losing Nurkic and Ed Davis, I expected Robert Williams to go here) but Simmons is intriguing and since they may be parting ways with either Lillard or McCollum (I wouldn't trade either but that's the buzz), seems like they need some front court excitement.

25) LA Lakers -- F Moritz Wagner (Michigan)
I was impressed with Wagner's run in the tournament this season, wondered why the buzz about him wasn't higher. The Lakers have traditionally drafted well in this area of the 1st round, I think this is another good move. The Lakers still have a lot of moves to make but I think Wagner has a good chance of scoring at the next level and working his way into the Laker rotation.

26) Philadelphia Sixers -- PG Landry Shamet (Wichita State)
I like Shamet's potential, though the Sixers are loaded with PG's now (uhhh, Fultz on the way out?).

27) Boston Celtics -- C Robert Williams (Texas A&M)
Williams fell a lot further than I thought he would but the Celtics did well to grab the best available (although I would still expect them to bring back Aron Baynes).

28) Golden State Warriors -- G Jacob Evans (Cincinnati)
I figured this was Gary Trent Jr, but Evans is a great pick here. Watch out, league, I think Evans is gonna be good and in Golden State he'll have plenty of time to develop his game. I thought they might trade this pick for multiple 2nd rounders but I think Evans is exactly the guy they need.

29) Brooklyn Nets -- SF Dzanan Musa (Croatia)
I'm curious to see Musa, he was top ten-ish in last summer's mock drafts, so he must have some skills. The Nets need everything so he'll have plenty of playing time if he's ready now.

30) Atlanta Hawks -- PF Omari Spellman (Hawks)
Another big body to throw in the Hawks youth movement. Villanova doesn't quite have the pedigree of, say, Duke or Kansas, but it's getting there and betting on winners in college is not a bad way to finish off the 1st round. Been a good night for the Hawks.

2018 NBA Draft Reactions (1-14)

1) Phoenix Suns -- C Deandre Ayton (Arizona)
Considering all the confusion this year, the draft starts off exactly as it seemed like it would. The Suns have one more year of Tyson Chandler at center but Ayton will undoubtedly get plenty of playing time right away. The Suns are now building around Devin Booker and Ayton with two more years of figuring what they've got in Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender. Should be fun to watch but I'm guessing the Suns will be in play for #1 again next year.

2) Sacramento Kings -- PF Marvin Bagley (Duke)
I think passing on Doncic was a mistake but the Kings are used to mistakes. I like Bagley and a lineup of De'Aron Fox, Buddy Hield, Justin Jackson/Harry Giles, Willie Cauley-Stein and Bagley will be fun but, like Phoenix, should put them in line for a top five pick again next year (though they don't have any picks next year--doh!). They do still have a ton of money to spend and should have even more next summer, so things are looking up in Sacto (and I'm a sucker for youth movements, so I'll probably be watching a lot of the Kings next year).

3) Atlanta Hawks -- F Luka Doncic (Real Madrid)
They got themselves the best player in the draft, so already a good night for the Hawks. But with two more 1st round picks this night could really take off for them. But, a running theme already, the Hawks are probably the odds-on favorite for the #1 pick next year.

4) Memphis Grizzlies -- PF Jaren Jackson (Michigan State)
Jackson strikes me as a perfectly okay player and while perhaps they could've reached for higher upside at this pick, with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley (and Chandler Parsons, too, right?), the Grizzlies are expecting to be good right away. A solid pro who will contribute right away without pulling focus is probably the right move for them (and clearly no one was biting on that god awful Parsons contract). I'm not sure I'm ready to anoint the Grizzlies a Western playoff team just yet, but they are certainly way ahead of the three previous teams.

5) Dallas Mavericks -- PG Trae Young (Oklahoma)
I wasn't as impressed with Young as most and since they just drafted Dennis Smith last year, I think I would've suggested trading back and aiming for Kevin Knox or Mikal Bridges. I expect the Mavs to make a run at Demarcus Cousins (how about Danny Green and Thaddeus Young instead?), so they'll be a brand new team next year. If Young hits his high end estimate, the Mavs might be in the post-season next year.

6) Orlando Magic -- C Mo Bamba (Texas)
Orlando needs everything and it could be that Bamba is DPOY-kinda talent, but they really could've used a playmaker (like Trae Young). (Hmmmm....since the Mavs were rumored to be in on Bamba, could there be a trade coming up?) The Magic need everything and now...they still do. The Magic still have moves to make this summer but I'd be surprised to see them outside of the top 6 next year.

7) Chicago Bulls -- PF Wendell Carter (Duke)
Figured they'd take Michael Porter here but Carter is a solid down-low presence that they can slot in after Robin Lopez moves on next summer. The Bulls are slowly getting better but they've still got a logjam of guards to sluice through. Carter should fit right into the rotation going forward, not a bad pick.

8) Cleveland Cavs -- PG Collin Sexton (Alabama)
I'm not a huge fan of Sexton (I would've taken a chance on Porter first) but its all about what Lebron wants. I don't know who Lebron likes but I got a feeling that George Hill is someone he does not like, so this is a move away from him. If Sexton can play and put up with Lebron, then he's got a good chance at success.

9) New York Knicks -- SF Kevin Knox (Kentucky)
I watched a lot of Knox last year: pro) a helluva scorer and ballhandler (not unlike Jaysun Tatum); con) he's a bit of a reluctant player, not one to step up and lead. So while I think he'll be a fine scorer in the league, a leaderless dysfunctional squad like the Knicks in one of the planet's largest media markets is probably not the best fit for him. Oh well, I think he'll be a good player (maybe better on his next team).

10) Philadelphia Sixers -- SF Mikal Bridges (Villanova)
If he can score from the wing, he can be a star right away in Philly; if he's a tenacious defender, he can be a star right away in Philly. Either way, if he can play, this is a great pick.

11) Charlotte Hornets -- PS Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
They got rid of Dwight Howard earlier in the week, so it's already time for a celebration in Charlotte. If they move on from Kemba Walker, too (though the rumored move to Cleveland might be off since they took Sexton), then SGA could fit right in as their primary ball handler. I watched a lot of SGA and I gotta say, I found him tentative and kinda uncreative; he gets to the basket well but isn't a great shooter. I'd call him a lesser version of De'Aron Fox or Dennis Shroeder. The Hornets still have a bloated payroll with not enough W's, I expect them to be a lottery team next year outside of serious wheeling and dealing this summer.

12) LA Clippers -- SF Miles Bridges (Michigan State)
13) LA Clippers -- PG Jerome Robinson (Boston College)
Considering Coach Doc isn't likely to give big minutes to rookies, these guys both strike me as long shots to get much run. But both these guys are good young players so they should find their way into the rotation eventually (wouldn't be surprised to see either/both of these guys getting traded).

14) Denver Nuggets -- SF Michael Porter (Missouri)
He probably should've have fallen this far but he has back issues (and is a notorious douchebag), so the Nuggets scored themselves either the steal of the draft or the booby prize. If the Nuggets move on from Faried, Plumlee and/or Wilson Chandler, Porter gets plenty of time (and saves them a ton of money). Everyone is Denver has their fingers crossed, Porter could be the piece that gets them back into the playoffs.

2018 NBA Draft

I chose not to do a mock draft because I think there will be a lot of trades this year. Also the amazing variance on this year's prospects make for a wide open draft this time around.

Personally I would rank the prospects: 1) Luka Doncic (how is he not everyone else's #1? This guy is already a badass (*)), 2) Marvin Bagley (his scoring and fluidity with the ball impressed the hell out of me), 3) Deandre Ayton (neck and neck with Bagley, I just slightly preferred the Duke guy to the Arizona guy), 4) Michael Porter (not everyone's cup of tea and there are questions about his health, but he's got the potential to be better than Ben Simmons), 5) Mo Bamba (I'm starting to buy the hype), 6) Wendell Carter (the best bet to be a pleasant surprise), 7/8) Mikal Bridges and Kevin Knox (Bridges feels like a dependable 3-and-D guy, while I think Knox can become a for-real filler upper in the right system), 9) Jaren Jackson (I think he'll be a reliable player but I don't think his upside is as high as the others), 10) Trae Young (honestly I don't like his chances to succeed but his upside is worth a shot I guess).

Yeah, I skipped Collin Sexton (Alabama) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky) and only tacked on Young at the end. I just wasn't that impressed with the guards this year and since the rest of the draft is packed with combo guards, I don't see why you'd pass up on those potentially transcendent big men at the top of the draft. If you think these guards are better than the rest of the pack, then you've got to pick one but I don't think Young, Sexton or SGA are all that more interesting than, say, Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech) or Lonnie Walker (Miami). Unless I had one of the top 8 picks, I'd trade down and take my chances with multiple dips in the pool of interesting 2nd rounders.

As far as the 2nd round goes, I'm curious about Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State), Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Elie Okobo (France), Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech), Dznan Musa (Bosnia), Arnolda Kubolka (Lithuania) and, man, I'm telling you, if Malik Newman (Kansas) is the 60th pick, that's an unbelievable steal. Also, I got a weird feeling Jacob Evans (Cincinnati) ends up being a super badass.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Suns took Doncic at #1 (nor would I be shocked if they traded him later in the evening), I'd be kinda shocked if the Kings did not take Doncic at #2 and even though everyone would put together trade packages for Dallas if Doncic slips to #5, I think the Mavs would take Doncic instead of trading the pick.

I can absolutely see the Grizzlies packaging #4 with Chandler Parsons. I can see the Magic swapping #6 for the Clippers' #12 and #13 (or the Sixers flipping #10 to the Clippers). I don't really see any scenario where the Cavs end up signing the #8 pick (that is trade bait with or without Lebron). I can see the Knicks overpaying to trade up from #9. I can see the Hornets trading down from #11 (how about #11 and #55 to Denver for #14, #43 and Juan Hernangomez?).

I don't see Kawhi Leonard (Spurs) getting traded on draft night simply because I don't think the Spurs would want a draft pick for him. The #4 pick and Chandler Parsons for Kawhi? You must be crazy! (How about this crazy pointless trade idea: Grizzlies get Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol; Spurs get (very specific, so this only works after the picks are made) Luka Doncic (#4), Elie Okobo (#32), Grizzlies 2019 1st round draft pick, 2021 unprotected pick swap and Chandler Parsons. Spurs then target Derrick Favors and JJ Reddick in free agency leaving them: PG Patty Mills, SG Reddick, SF Doncic, PF Aldridge, C Favors with Murray, Okobo, Green, Anderson, Bertans, Ginobli, Parsons, Lauvergne off the bench....nah, Parsons is too expensive to make that work)

The Wizards may want to move Marcin Gortat but they're not giving up #15 to move him (may not be the greatest pick but whoever they get will be too cheap to pass up).

I don't see the Wolves making any moves on draft night because 1) I don't see Towns moving at all and 2) why move Wiggins for a draft pick when Thibs got nothing out of the picks from 2017 (Justin Patton) and 2016 (Kris Dunn)?

Pointless trade idea: Kings get Luol Deng, #25, #39, #47 and Lakers 2019 1st round pick (which is shaping up to be a pretty weak draft); Lakers get a 2023 2nd round draft pick
The Kings would have Zeebo, Koufos and Shumpert coming off next summer and only Cauley-Stein to re-sign, Deng wouldn't kill their cap and they could use every draft pick they can get. (Lakers would want Cauley-Stein but I'd say no to that). The Lakers are in free agent mode, not draft pick mode, this deal would be a minimal price to pay to free up cap space.

We'll see how the trades shake out but it seems to me the big winner tomorrow night should be the Suns. With #1, #16 and #31 have a real chance to get better at a reasonable cost. We'll see if they do.


(*) Did you see Barkley's comment about Doncic? Something along the lines of, if he's 19 and already won a championship and an MVP it means the competition isn't any good and therefore Doncic is overrated.  *smh* So I guess Barkley's inability to win a championship and the fact he didn't win an MVP til 30 are examples of his greatness...?

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (*)

Trade
Hornets receive Timofey Mozgov (2yrs/$32.7m), the #45 pick and a 2021 2nd round pick; Nets receive Dwight Howard (1yr/$23.8m)
The Hornets save money this year (but not next year), get an extra pick in Thursday's draft and get rid of one of the most unpopular players in recent memory. Mozgov is quite a bit cheaper right now but that extra year on his deal instantly becomes next summer's big problem (I'd be willing to be he'll get stretched). Hey, man, Mozgov had moments when he was a rebounding machine and not a bad down-low scorer. If he can give the Hornets some semblance of that, then this is a big win for the Hornets. And if the Hornets move on from Kemba Walker (I expect that trade announcement to be coming any day now), then the plethora of 2nd round combo guards might make that #45 pick come in handy. 

Howard gives the Nets one year of looking like they're trying to win and then helps clear the decks for next summer when they'll--finally!--have some money to spend and probably a top ten pick. (I was already thinking it so I'll go ahead and get it down now: Lebron and Durant together in Brooklyn...yeah, I think that's a for-real thing. And even if not, it's what everyone will be talking about next spring)

A weird-looking trade but I'm inclined to say it's a good move for both teams. The Nets get rid of their worst contract and get to pretend like they have a big star, without damaging their chances at a good draft pick and even creating a little free agent buzz in the process (no pun intended); the Hornets get rid of a guy they can't stand, save a little money while doing so and get a bite at the 2nd round apple. Not bad.


Fired
Pistons fire GM Jeff Bower
The Pistons are cleaning house, Bower's days were clearly numbered after the Blake Griffin deal, which was the ownership choosing to ride a popular star rather than actually build a basketball team. The roster is tighter than (fill in your own joke) and the draft is in 48 hours, so not sure what a GM would do for them right now.

Sixers accept resignation of GM Bryan Colangelo
Funny how quick this story came and went. So some reporter discovered a Twitter account that seemed to look like Colangelo, wacky hijinks ensue, investigation discovers that it was Colangelo's wife. Colangelo's dad (a Sixer advisor) reportedly raised hell behind the scenes (why is he still getting a paycheck from the Sixers?) but couldn't save the disgraced GM or his better half. Fortunately for ol' Bryan this happened shortly before the Trump-Kim summit, the World Cup and the draft, all of which have mercifully pushed him from the Twittersphere. Look, the guy inherited the Process (handed to him by his dad), got no value for Jahlil Okafor, wildly overpaid for Markelly Fultz and....well....nothing else. To be blunt: the Sixers fucked up by getting rid of Sam Hinkie to begin with and frankly they ought to sue the NBA for foisting the Colangelo clan on them as an attempt to class up Philly. For now it seems Coach Brown will run the draft and the free agency but Hinkie is still out there looking for a job (just sayin').


Hired
Raptors hired Nick Nurse as new coach
Word is Quicken Arenas has already prepared a sign for next year's playoffs reading "Good Night, Nurse!" (Heh heh, sorry, couldn't help myself) So the Raptors got rid of Casey to bring in his assistant? This was to...shake things up while maintaining continuity...? Ehhhhh....I don't know Nurse, don't want to cast aspersions, but I don't see the point of this move.

Pistons hired Dwane Casey as new coach
This is fine. The Pistons were looking for a retread coach for the next 3 years, Casey is arguably the top of the list at the moment. Their roster is locked up for the foreseeable future, they should be close to a playoff team, so for now they need a caretaker who can squeeze out efficiencies around the margins. Casey did brilliant things with Toronto's bench last season, if he can do that again in Detroit, then maybe--just maybe!--.they'll get swept by the Cavs next year. Hey, for Detroit that would actually look like a pretty good season.


Options exercised
Iman Shumpert (Kings), Darrell Arthur (Nuggets), Jodie Meeks (Wizards), Dwayne Dedmon (Hawks) all exercised player options to return to their teams
Uh....yeah....those guys are all better off staying where they are. I can see Shumpert being a regular rotation guy for the Kings, whereas I can't see Meeks playing basketball ever again. Arthur and Dedmon are both trade chips though for different reasons: Arthur because the Nuggets would like to save money and Dedmon because he could be an interesting addition for a playoff team looking to thicken their bench.

Sixers exercise team option on Richaun Holmes
I kinda like Holmes but he doesn't play much. He's still on a very affordable rookie contract, so it's a low cost move for continuity but I wonder if we'll see him more next year. 

Rudy Gay (Spurs) has declined his player option
His contract for next year was (around) $8.5m which is probably about the maximum he could make. But if Kawhi leaves, then San Antonio will not be a fun place to be and he probably fancies himself as a contributor on of them new 'super teams'. I could see him with the Lakers, maybe the Sixers but if none of the big moves we imagine take place this summer, he could find himself getting minutes in Brooklyn.

Kyle O'Quinn (Knicks) has declined his player option
Hmmmm....I kinda like O'Quinn and the money was not terribly high (I wanna say $4.5m) but in a year with so many big men at the top of the draft, it feels like a tough time for him to get himself a new gig. The buzz is the Warriors want him and just that hint of interest is perhaps worth a gamble.


Waived
Cavs waive London Perrantes
Cavs need every penny they can squeeze this summer. Don't know Perrantes but wouldn't be a shock to see him in Summer League for the Cavs or back with the Cavs in pre-season.


(*) I typically don't update these posts but there were a coupla news items today that I thought I'd shoe horn into yesterday's post.

Friday, June 15, 2018

2018-19 Cleveland Cavs

2017-18: 50-32 (4th in the East, lost in the Finals)
Draft picks: 8
Signed for next season ($137.9m): Lebron James, Kevin Love, George Hill, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Korver, Cedi Osman, Larry Nance, Ante Zizic

This summer's free agents: Rodney Hood, Jose Calderon, Jeff Green, Kendrick Perkins, Okaro White, John Holland, London Perrantes
I don't see why Hood, Green, Perkins and White would be back next year, but I can see them going for another year of Calderon. Holland and Perrantes are on 2-way contracts.

Obviously: the player option of Lebron James is the first order of business. If Lebron leaves, the whole world is turned upside own. First, I'd guess they'd fire Tyron Lue and begin the search for a new coach; then I reckon either Love, Hill, Thompson and/or Smith gets traded (I'd trade away all four if I could, pile up as many draft picks as possible); then that #8 pick becomes the "new savior" (without Lebron, I'd look to swap #8 for the Clippers #12 and #13); they re-sign Hood and roll into next year with a new coach, a new youth movement and a relatively new supporting cast (Nance, Osman, Korver, Hood and whoever they get in return for the more expensive players). Then they settle into a Charlotte Hornets-like mediocrity for a while with an eye on stockpiling draft picks. Wow, it's a whole different world, huh?

On the other hand, if Lebron does come back, it'd look pretty much like this year....which is why Lebron not coming back seems more likely, right? Personally, I think Lebron comes back and we go through all this again next summer (when he becomes steadily more likely to leave). Lebron could go to the Lakers but in the West he'd likely have to face the Warriors and the Rockets, which is not much fun. I thought the Spurs were a possibility, though the sudden news that Kawhi wants out would probably put the kibosh on that move (can they get Kawhi to Cleveland...? Uhhhh, no). I don't think the Sixers are interesting to Lebron and talk of the Celtics is worth noting, but I don't see it happening. So, outside of the Lakers, I don't see anywhere for Lebron to go. He's outgrown the league. And, though no one else may agree with me, Love and Thompson are good fits for Lebron and the Cavs.

So where do the Cavs go? Let's start with a pointless trade idea: Hawks get #8 pick, George Hill; Cavs get Kent Bazemore.
First off, you better believe the Hawks are gonna be the belle of the ball this summer: they've got room to take on bad contracts and no pressing need to be good at basketball. Bazemore is their one tradeable asset (I think they're married to Schroeder, for better or worse), perhaps they can do better than George Hill, but his contract is virtually identical to Bazemore's, he'll give them minutes on the floor without much danger of actually winning games and that #8 pick must be pretty tantalizing (if Michael Porter drops to 8 because of medical concerns, grab him and give him the year off; the Hawks are in Process mode, they don't need the #8 pick to actually play next year anyway). Can the Hawks do better than this? Maybe, but getting rid of Bazemore isn't a bad thing and they want draft picks first and foremost.

For the Cavs, if Lebron comes back then who cares about #8? And turning Hill into a contributor with the exact same price tag would be a great move. I think Hill gives the Cavs nothing but a reminder of his inability to make the game winning free throw in Game One. In short Hill's gotta go and, yeah, Bazemore isn't a perfect fit but he's got energy, he'll play minutes and he'll appreciate a shot at winning since he's basically never been on a good team. It's an expensive price to pay to bring in Bazemore but it's worth it to get rid of Hill. (Speaking of getting rid of goats (the bad kind), is there any way they can talk the Jazz into taking JR Smith for Alec Burks? (I don't see how, probably not possible anyway))

The Cavs are in a tough spot next year with or without Lebron. With Lebron, they'd be running back the same so-so team but they'd have Lebron; without, they'd be stuck with the same so-so team but they wouldn't have Lebron (yipes!). I think getting rid of Hill and Smith is absolutely necessary and giving up the #8 pick will be the price to pay to make one or both of those guys disappear (and likely getting back a player/contract even worse than Kent Bazemore).

Okay, okay, let's assume that none of that happens and Lebron comes back. What do the do with #8? Chances are there is nobody out there that Lebron particularly wants to play with, so I'd make the same suggestion to the Cavs that I made above to the Hawks: take Michael Porter, shut him down, forget that he's even there and run him out there in 2019-2020 (with or without Lebron). If they really want someone to play right now, I guess they'll be targeting Trae Young as their replacement for Kyrie/Isiah (I think that's a pipe dream but it is the upside, I suppose). I think Jaren Jackson is a guy they would actually play but I think he'll be gone. (Getting rid of this pick--even after it's been picked--is much more likely than the Cavs rolling into next season with a high profile rookie, since outside of Porter, Jackson and Young, none of the other top prospects even fit Cleveland anyway)

So realistically the Cavs are looking at PG Hill, SG Smith, SF Lebron, PF Love, C Thompson with Clarkson, Korver, Osman and Nance off the bench. Not a super exciting squad but I think they'd still get through the East. That team is solid if unspectacular, if they just maintain some consistency, Lebron can still carry them the way he always has. As bad as Clarkson looked at times in the playoffs (dude, there was a moment in Game Two where he just looked like a little kid that had no idea what he was doing out there that will stay with me for a while, ha!), but as a night in/night out regular season PG off the bench, he'll be fine taking up minutes. And I still think that as Lebron gets used to Nance he will genuinely like playing with him. Over the course of a full regular season, I think if the Cavs return this exact same squad, they'll be better than the were this past season. Good enough to get past the Celtics and Sixers? Yeah, sure, why not?

So far they still have Lebron, so now I will hit 'PUBLISH'.

2018 World Cup

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh....it's back. Too bad USA isn't here but that ain't gonna spoil my good time.

20 teams are returning from 2014: Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, France, Belgium, Uruguay, Mexico, Nigeria, Switzerland, Russia (host), South Korea, Iran, Japan, England, Croatia, Australia, Spain, Portugal.

The 12 new teams: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Peru, Denmark, Iceland, Serbia, Sweden, Panama, Tunisia, Senegal, Poland. (And they are replacing: Netherlands, Chile, Greece, Algeria, USA, Bosnia, Ivory Coast, Italy, Ghana, Ecuador, Cameroon, Honduras)

Predictions: I got Germany over Brazil in the Round of 16, Messi (Argentina) over Ronaldo (Portugal) in the Quarterfinals and Colombia over Belgium in the Final, which would give us two first timers in the Final.

Yeah, I'm a little late but I'll be watching all the games tape delayed anyway, so being behind is how this is gonna play for me. All right, I'm ready.



Tuesday, June 5, 2018

2018-19 Houston Rockets

2017-18: (1st in the West, lost in the conference finals)
Draft picks: 46
Signed for next season ($80.4m): James Harden, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, Nene Hilario, Chinanu Onuaku, Zhou Qi

This summer's free agents: Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, Tarik Black, Clint Capela, Luc Mbah a Moute, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson, Aaron Jackson, RJ Hunter, Markel Brown
Okay, the Rockets gotta lotta moves to make this summer. Paul, Ariza, Capela were big pieces of this past season when they led the West in the regular season and bringing them back (or replacing them) are the Rockets' main priorities. Of course, Mbah a Moute and Green were good contributors, too. I don't expect Black, Johnson or Jackson to be back next year. Hunter and Brown are 2-way contracts.

#46 is not likely to make an impact for the Rockets, wouldn't be surprised to see them swap it for a future 2nd rounder. But Malik Newman (Kansas) might still be there. Hey, I watched Newman as a Team USA youth player a few years back and was mightily impressed, he kinda botched his college days but don't be surprised if he's actually a worthwhile NBA player. That said, a rookie PG is probably not getting the Rockets too excited. Probably more likely #46 ends up in a trade package.

The Rockets will surely bring back Chris Paul and Clint Capela (after pretending like they've got a shot with Lebron, of which I think they have none), but I reckon they let Ariza and Mbah a Moute move on and I can't see them bringing back Green or Johnson (unless they get a deep discount on one or the other). I'm sure they'd love to move on from Ryan Anderson (why does Anderson make so much more than Eric Gordon? And why do both make so much more than Ariza?) but I don't see anyone out there clamoring to get in on that deal (well, Atlanta is in the mode of preferring draft picks to wins, is a 2019 1st rounder enough for the Hawks to pick up that contract?). James Harden is one of the most efficient players in the game but as the Cavs are showing (again) one great player is not enough to win in the NBA. I'm still dubious that Chris Paul is the right fit for Harden, but Paul is a great player so unless a sign/trade is in the works, I think they've got to bring him back. That said, bringing Paul back doesn't get them past the Warriors, so who knows? Capela, too, become a stable part of their offensive attack, seems like they have to bring him back, but, man, someone out there is going to offer him a ton of money. Gonna be a long weird summer for the Rockets, I think.

2018-19 Boston Celtics

2017-18: 55-27 (2nd in the East, lost in the conference finals)
Draft picks: 27
Signed for next season ($107.4m): Gordon Hayward, Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jaysun Tatum, Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, Guerschon Yabusele, Semi Ojeleye, Abdel Nader, Daniel Theis

This summer's free agents: Greg Monroe, Marcus Smart, Aron Baynes, Shane Larkin, Jonathon Gibson, Kadeem Allen, Jabari Bird,
I don't see any reason to bring back Greg Monroe. I think they're gonna have to let go of Smart (ouch, that hurts). Baynes and Larkin were nice players for the Celtics, I assume they'd like to bring them back, not sure how they fit in the cap. I don't know who Gibson is. Allen and Bird are on 2-way contracts.

#27 pick? Huh, no top 5 picks this year? They'll be bringing back/welcoming in Gordon Hayward next year so the loss of Marcus Smart should be made up in house. But at #27 they could use a dirty work guy, a gritty gutty smashing bastard of a goon. Is that Grayson Allen (Duke)? Could be.

The Celtics lost their big free agent signing Hayward like two minutes into the season and then lost their top scorer and prized trade addition Kyrie Irving going into the playoffs, but still managed to get within one game of the NBA Finals. The cult of Coach Stevens grows and the team vibe the Celtics displayed in the playoffs (especially when dispatching the talented Sixers) was enviable and impressive. Getting full seasons out of Hayward and Kyrie and knowing what they've got in Jaysun Tatum makes the Celtics the odds-on choice to win the East next year. I expect the Celtics to take it easy this summer focusing on shoring up the end of the roster by bringing back Baynes and Larkin. But then again....wouldn't be surprised to see them package Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris and the #29 pick to snag #5 from the Mavs; if Doncic is still at #5 on draft night (I don't think he will be), expect the Celtics to be among those putting together packages for the Mavs to consider.