2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st Round, 6 games in)

East

Heat 4-1 Bucks

Oh my. This is one the biggest upsets I've ever seen in the NBA, which is often pretty predictable with an occasional mild upset; this is not a "mild upset"--I was half-expecting the Bucks to win 3 straight and advance even when they were down 3-1. The Bucks played like they expected to win--not with swagger or overwhelming control but just that they thought the other team would simply wilt in the face of their awesomeness. (*) Well, Jimmy Butler was having none of that and frankly he was the scariest shit-talkin'-est badass I've seen in eons. And it was the Bucks that wilted down the stretch as Giannis was afraid to take foul shots, Jrue Holiday didn't rise to the occasion on either end and Khris Middleton was kinda expected to handle all the offense. The Bucks should've won every single game, they blew big leads in all of them. I still think this Heat team is limited but they knew they could rattle the Bucks and they did. (**) As for the Bucks, well, hey man: UVA lost as a #1 seed (first in NCAA history) and then came back and won it all the next year. The Bucks still have Giannis, a good supporting cast and an offensive guru at coach (well, for now), I expect they'll still be very good next season. 

Hawks 2-4 Celtics

Yeah, the Celtics fumbled away Game Five in Boston, leading to a hint of consternation but no biggie, they were better than the Hawks and even if it took a little longer than expected to show it, it still turned out to be the case. Explain the Hawks to me: they have drafted really well for several years in a row now and while the roster is stocked with talent, somehow none of it fits together or ever gels on the court. How can they be doing everything so right and still be this mediocre? They've got big moves to make in the offseason and I'm not sure they can pull them off (Trae for.....who?). The Celtics are doing just fine, losing two games to the Hawks is not a bad sign.

Nets 0-4 Sixers

Yup, nothing's changed...the Sixers still don't seem ready for the Celtics even though Trae Young bought them a coupla extra days of recuperation time.

Knicks 4-1 Cavs

Man, the Cavs just didn't have it. The Knicks were ready to win and the Cavs were not. I'm not sure if this was just a bad matchup (maybe) or if the Cavs just kinda suck (I don't think they do) or if the Knicks were just ready to take it to another level (yeah, that's my gut feeling). Whatever the case, the Cavs weren't ready to take the next step and the Knicks laid the smackdown. What do the Cavs need? Looks to me like another year of maturation should greatly benefit this team and if they add the right veteran or two (***), don't be shocked if the Cavs wreck the regular season next year (then stumble timidly into the playoffs). The Knicks looked dominant without even looking their best.

West

Wolves 1-4 Nuggets

Yeah, nothing has changed here. The Wolves are a mess piled on top of a mess. I expect them to make moves this summer, but don't be shocked if the changes don't make any difference (like a 10-year old hiding the green beans he hates under the mashed potatoes). The Nuggets look rested and ready for the Suns' dangerous but skimpy roster.

Lakers 4-2 Grizzlies

Jack Nicholson's back and the LA crowd finally got their chance to fall in love with AD and Lebron. Great W for the Lakers, Lebron the professional had this one circled on the calendar because he absolutely did not want to go back to Memphis for Game Seven. The Grizzlies had a weird year and it'll be interesting to see where they go next year. They're still young and one could say that they have overachieved so far and are on track to mature into a dominant squad....or one could say they're too arrogant and have flown too close to the sun and are flaming out before our eyes. To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure which one it is (though I suspect firing the coach would be a really dumb move). They might be awesome next year or they might be broke (like a broke dog's dick, as an old colleague of mine used to say). The Lakers handled their business, took advantage of the Grizzlies' weakness and inexperience. 

Warriors 3-3 Kings

The Warriors, on the other hand, did not get the memo about wrapping up their series on their home floor and are headed back to Sactown for Game Seven. The Warriors stole Game Five on the road because De'Aaron Fox just never looked right with his broken finger and though he tried valiantly, he shot them out of the game late in the 4th. But Fox came back strong to save the series on the road, a game the Warriors really needed to take. The Warriors just didn't get it done--I loved the way the Kings were throwing all sorts of weird rotations at the Warriors, who were never able to take control. Can the Warriors have a brilliant game and dispatch the Kings? Oh, absolutely! But I'm not betting on it: I predicted at the beginning if it went seven games, the Kings would pull it out and I sticking with that. 

Clippers 1-4 Suns

Yeah, the Clips have clipped and the Suns move on. I assume the Clippers will keep Westbrook (a 50/50 proposition, but Coach Lue can handle him, I think), but what else are they trotting out next year? Not sure where this team goes from here. They were a weird team all season long, stayed weird in the playoffs and will be weird in the off-season, I presume. I expect the Clippers, though, to be a solid playoff team next year simply because even though they're still weird, we have come to expect (no?) that the Clippers will be a talented team with plenty of moxy, a far cry from the Clippers I grew up with. As for the Suns, they got pushed in a coupla games but kinda had it easy the rest of the way, they don't look like a champion squad to me. 

2nd Round

Sixers - Celtics

This is the matchup that the Sixers ought to be excited about: they don't have to face the Bucks and they may as well dispatch the Celtics in Round 2. If you told the Sixers last summer that their path would be an MVP for Embiid, then the broken down Nets, the Celtics instead of the Bucks, and then either the fluky Knicks or the fluky Heat, they would've pinched themselves and told you it was too good to be true. Well, here they are, halfway through the dream--do they look like a championship team to you? They don't to me. Harden looks fat, Embiid looks half-dominant/half-uninterested and the rest of the cast looks good enough to beat the Nets but not a real team. Coach Rivers is already making excuses (and vacation plans) and they just don't look like they're gonna take more than 2 games off the Celtics (****). The Celtics have yet to really play their best basketball but they look prepared to make the leap (whereas the Sixers don't) and with no Bucks on the other side of the bracket, the Celtics are probably booking their travel plans for the Finals (I would, too). The Celtics are the better team, the Sixers are not. If the Sixers can get a Game Seven, anything can happen, but I don't think it gets that far. I like the Celtics in 6. 

Heat- Knicks

The Heat are playing with house money and they've got one of the most fearsome players in the sport on their side. The Heat are coming off a historic upset win....but you know....I still think they're a limited offensive team and without Tyler Herro, I don't see how they keep up with the Knicks. The Knicks breezed through Cleveland with basically just Brunson, Mitchell Robinson and Hartenstein. They'll need more than that against the Heat, who will roll over in 1 game or maybe two, but they'll be working hard deep into the 4th quarter more often than not. Julius Randall needs to show up in the playoffs (for the first time in his career) if they want to make the conference finals. I think they will. The Heat are a nice story but the Bucks lost because they got tight, not because the Heat are the better team. I think the Knicks are better than the Heat and I think they've got the right mindset to outscore the Heat. The Heat will make them work but I like Knicks in 6.

Suns 0-1 Nuggets

Yeah, the Nuggets are already up 1-0 but I wasn't surprised by Game One--in fact I fully expect 3 of the next 4 games to look pretty much just like last night. Devin Booker is playing out his mind, but Chris Paul looks old, Kevin Durant hasn't really found the shape of the Suns attack and Deandre Ayton looks like the Chalmers (***) out there rather than the #1 pick that he was. The Suns did what they needed to do to win, but I think that lack of depth is going to doom them sooner rather than later. The Nuggets are better, deeper and Jokic is the best player on the floor every night. The Suns just don't have the depth to stop the Nugget attack nor to outscore them on the other end. I expect Booker to ball out, but that's the end of it. I'll take Nuggets in 5.

Either Lakers - Kings or Warriors - Lakers
Lebron is getting ready either way. All about health really: I think I'd like the Lakers over the Kings --provided the Lakers stay healthy. And I think Lakers-Warriors is a toss up--probably based on whoever is the least nicked up. Either way, this is not how the Lakers felt at any point during the regular season. (Yeah, I should probably just wait a coupla hours to see who wins in Sacramento but I don't see any of these teams beating the Nuggets, so it probably don't matter)

And to continue to play it all out, in the conference finals I'll take Celtics over Knicks, Nuggets over....whoever. And as for the Final, man, I think Nuggets-Celtics sounds fucking amazing. That will go seven games, coin flip in Game Seven....but I guess I'd say Celtics in 7 (in a fucking classic!).

(*) Kinda reminds me of the Donovan Mitchell Jazz taking out the Russell Westbook Thunder in 2018: the Thunder just assumed they were better than the Jazz and didn't bother to actually put it on wax.

(**) To be fair: Giannis did hit the ground hard in Game One and was never quite the same, Middleton was out long stretches this season and it has come out that Coach Bud's brother died last week. This was all after a cruise control regular season where no one outside of the Celtics really presented any kind of resistance, so this team was perhaps more traumatized than usual and not on their guard. 

(***) I have no idea why they bought out Kevin Love going into a playoff run, but my gut feeling is he wasn't the right guy there anyway. So while I can't remember a guy ever leaving a playoff team for another playoff team like that, I suspect it was the right move for all parties. Did you see Jarrett Allen's quote when asked about Love leaving: "I was told he went for milk and cigarettes and just never came back." Ha!

(****) Don't blame me: I voted for Jokic.

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st Round, 4 games in)

East

Heat 3-1 Bucks

Uh oh! The Bucks dropped Game One when Giannis went out after a thud to the floor and the Heat shot the lights out. In Game Two without Giannis, the Bucks handled their business and easily thumped the Heat. The Heat got their revenge in Game Three (the L everyone expected the Bucks to give up on their way to the gentleman's sweep) and then blitzed the Bucks in the 4th quarter of Game Four to put the Bucks in a tight spot. Now, look: the Bucks are a good squad with the best player in the East and the Heat are a so-so sloppy shooting squad with Jimmy Butler and not much else. This is a serious mismatch--so much so that as of now I still expect the Bucks to win three straight and advance. But, man, Jimmy Butler smells blood like no one in the game right now and if the Bucks show even the slighest hint of weakness, hesitance or fatigue, Butler will steal their lunch money. So, yes, I said it, I still expect the Bucks to move on but they better get their shit together or they will get bounced. (Get the popcorn!) 

Hawks 1-3 Celtics

Yeah, this is about right. The Hawks had one really good shooting performance in them, the Celtics had one dud in them and both coincided in Game Three. Dejounte Murray even got suspended for the next game, so it's the Trae show in Game Five--is it possible that Trae goes off and drags this series back to Atlanta? Ehh, I suppose it's possible, but I don't see it happening. I expected this series to end in 5 and I still do.  

Nets 0-4 Sixers

Yeah, the Nets have no offense, man. I like their collection of talent, they are a supporting cast in need of a star, but they just can't keep up with the Sixers (who haven't really played particularly well yet). If only the Nets could find the perfect star for this roster...a big guy, great defender, good ball handler that makes plays for the rangy roster, someone that could get to the basket with ease....if only they had a player that on their roster....you know someone like Ben Simmons (but not the actual Ben Simmons, who has apparently given up on playing basketball). The Sixers, though they have breezed through the opening round, haven't gotten themselves in order (they still don't look like a cohesive squad) and I don't see them being much of a challenge to the Celtics, who are a much fuller, richer squad. 

Knicks 3-1 Cavs

The Cavs are in my blackout zone so I've only seen them a handful of times this year. I expected their depth and their scoring to be more impressive than what I've seen in this series. The Knicks are a wild card, got nothing to lose, and even though Julius Randle has not been great (which doomed them in the playoffs 2 years ago), the rest of the cast (Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson, especially) have been kinda great. And since Donovan Mitchell has been underwhelming to say the least and their twin towers front line hasn't made much difference at either end, I don't see how the Cavs make any kind of run here. The Knicks are playing better right now and unless Mitchell just goes off, I think this series is over, probably in 6.

West

Wolves 1-3 Nuggets

Hey, the Wolves didn't get swept. Good for them. Although they almost blew Game Four, having to scramble to save it in OT, so not exactly a resounding performance. The Nuggets are really good--arguably best in the league all season long--and the Wolves are a dumpster fire that kinda pulled it together late in the season. Point being: I expected Nuggets in 5 and that's what this looks like. 

Lakers 3-1 Grizzlies

Weird series. Ja Morant went down with a wrist injury in Game One and the Grizzlies just straight imploded from there and really gave away the opening match. They re-grouped (w/out Ja, though they win without him pretty regularly) in Game Two and laid a beatdown, but then got stomped (STOMPED! Don't buy the late burst that made the game seem kinda close--it was never close) in Game Three and then frittered away a winnable Game Four in OT (Jimmy Butler's heroics over the Bucks got all the headlines but Lebron was pretty heroic down the stretch against the Grizz that night, too). The Grizzlies came into this series without Steven Adams or Brandon Clarke, while not necessarily devastating losses, missing these two really dings their depth (that is 12 fouls to throw at Anthony Davis, if nothing else), especially factoring in a game and a half without Ja, so being down to Lebron and co. shouldn't be too shocking. But they really could've won One and Four and played truly awful in Three, so this series is closer than you think. The Lakers are a nice team but Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves have really stepped up and the Grizz don't seem to have an answer. Is the series over? Well, it doesn't look good, but if anyone could win three straight on the Lakers....well, it probably is not the Grizzlies. Gotta go Lakers from here (though they still have some pain ahead of them, I reckon). 

Warriors 2-2 Kings

Fun series! I thought the home team would dominate this series and so far that has come to pass. The Warriors were okay but not good enough in the first two games, then blew the doors off the visiting Kings in Game Three (w/out Draymond, who had been suspended for....I dunno...whatever unnecessary dumb shit he did) and then eked out Game Four at home, where a Harrison Barnes game winner was in the air (and clanked) at the buzzer. Now the buzz is that DeAron Fox has a broken finger, which could be devastating for the Kings, but we'll see. The Kings have yet to play their best basketball, Domantis Sabonis has been okay at best (seems hesitant after a season of knowing exactly what to do) and their defense is truly awful (my god, you could land a helicopter in the lane on them!) and if Fox is hobbled, they could be in real trouble. But the Warriors haven't exactly pulled it together, Steph Curry has, of course, been awesome but the rest of the supporting cast hasn't really rounded into shape yet. If the Kings can't pull it out, then the Warriors suddenly look dangerous all over again (and Steph v Lebron in the 2nd round does look kinda tasty). I'll stick with the home-team thing and the Kings in 7.

Clippers 1-3 Suns

Kawhi looked so great in the first two games, did not play the next two games and there is no timetable for his return--nor is there any timetable for Paul George, who hasn't played in this series. The Suns are getting W's and Devin Booker is playing great right now, but they are vulnerable as they are trying to get too many minutes out KD, Chris Paul, Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Clippers have countered by unleashing Russell Westbrook, who has reclaimed the believers, though I don't know why: he has always played hard and is still far from perfect right now, but the conventional wisdom had gotten so low on him that his mere presence is exciting people. If I was Steve Ballmer, I'd be really fucking grumpy that I paid so much for Kawhi and PG and have gotten so little from them in return. The Clippers could be winning this series right now, if they were at full strength it seems apparent that they could/should overwhelm the skimpy Suns roster. Oh well, looks like the Suns will escape but I don't have high hopes for them going forward because they are quickly burning through their personnel already. If the Clippers could pull out a miracle, they could still win this series, but it doesn't feel like the miracle is coming. 

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st round, 2 games in)

East

Bucks 1-1 Heat

Giannis went down in Game One, the Bucks floundered, the Heat shot the lights out and stole the W on the road. Without Giannis in Game Two, the Bucks mopped the floor with the Heat, who reverted back to the mean on their FG%. Haven't heard yet when Giannis will be back but I wouldn't be surprised to see him Game Three. But whether he returns sooner or later, I still think the Bucks are the superior side (especially since the Heat are without Tyler Herro, who also went down in Game One) and I think the Heat have basically already shot their wad, hard to imagine them shooting as well as they did in Game One. If the Bucks win Game Three (which I think they will), then I'd say they're on their way to wrapping this up in 5. 

Celtics 2-0 Hawks

I thought the Hawks might get hot from the floor, perhaps catch the Celtics napping, but after two games, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Trae Young just has nowhere to go to get consistent looks at the basket and he is such a negative on defense, I just don't see how the Hawks even take a game. The Celtics look good, they look ready to move on, I wouldn't be surprised if they get the sweep. 

Sixers 2-0 Nets

Yeah, I like the Nets roster but they just don't have enough scoring to hang. They Nets have enough to bedevil the Sixers but not enough to really put it on them. This is just the kind of warm-up the Sixers need: they can't fuck around but they don't really need to worry. I can see the Sixers dropping Game Four, but there's no reason for this series to go more than 5. 

Cavs 1-1 Knicks

The barn burner in the East! The Knicks stole Game One but, man, the Cavs did not shoot well in that game--and still probably should've won! So while this is the closest match in the East, I still think the Cavs are the better team. But the Knicks will win more and I still think this series goes to Game Seven (where the Cavs better get their offense in order). 

West

Nuggets 2-0 Wolves

The Wolves just aren't gonna be able to hang in this series. In Game Two the Nuggets were up by 15 at halftime but they went into sleepwalk mode and the Wolves actually (briefly) stole the lead. But the Nuggets roused themselves and handed their business down the stretch. If the Nuggets sleep walk again, I can see the Wolves stealing a game (perhaps Game Three) but the Nuggets are easily the better team and it would take a real catastrophe for this series to last too long. 

Grizzlies 1-1 Lakers

Ja Morant got hurt late in the 4th quarter (still no word on his return) and the Grizzlies really self-destructed in the last few minutes--a rather shocking collapse actually! And make no mistake: it isn't that the Lakers won, it is that the Grizzlies lost. The Lakers did play well in Game One but I'm not expecting Rui Hachimura to go off like that again or for Austin Reaves to wreck shop on the Grit-and-Grind D again. In Game Two, the Grizzlies won comfortably without Ja (something they do routinely, by the way) and while I expect the Lakers to win a game back at home, I wouldn't expect more than that. I'll go ahead and say it now: I'm guessing the Grizzlies have Game Six circled, they would love to dispatch the Lakers in front of the Lake Show crowd. 

Kings 2-0 Warriors

The Kings are better, man. And I say that even though their D is terrible--TERRIBLE! The strategy of outscoring all comers is a page from the Warrior playbook but I don't think the Warriors can hang. Draymond got suspended for Game Three (a judgement, I think, that was not merely deserved but PLAINLY OBVIOUS!), but don't be shocked if the Warriors are better without him. The conventional wisdom is that the Kings will breeze to a 3-0 lead but I'm not ready to give up on the Warrior offense just yet and I don't think that's based on Draymond's presence. I still like the Kings to win the series but I'm not ruling out a Game Seven just yet. 

Suns 1-1 Clippers

Puzzling series. The Clippers stole Game One behind a marvelous Kawhi performance; meanwhile, the Suns looked out of sorts, struggling to get Kevin Durant ensconced in the offense. The Suns rebounded in Game Two and Kawhi is out for Game Three, so I would expect the Suns to steal back home court advantage. But the Clippers (without Paul George) don't look like a pushover and the Suns don't yet look dominant, so though I still think the Suns are better, I'm not convinced they are ready to play better. 

2023 Champions League Quarterfinals (2nd Leg)

Napoli 1-1 (agg 1-2) AC Milan

I expected Napoli to look better in this match but frankly Milan casually parried them away from goal and maintained possession better than the home side. Milan missed a 1st half PK (good call, good save) but were able to steal the lead before halftime on a beautiful 80-yard run by Leao for the assist to Giroud and at that point the game kinda felt over. Napoli really needed to come out strong after halftime and, well, they didn't--they missed a PK, too! I still suspect Napoli was the better team but they didn't play like it and they're not moving on. 

Chelsea 0-2 (agg 0-4) Real Madrid 

Chelsea tried hard, had solid possessions but just couldn't generate any good chances. But it still felt like a game until Chelsea gambled on defense and let Vii got wide up the wing, chaos in front of the goal and Real put the game away midway through the 2nd half. Then Chelsea's defense stretched to the breaking point and Real's counter was just too deadly. Chelsea looked sluggish and out of sorts all through this match up, they're clearly not ready for the tippity top of Europe right now. Real Madrid is really winning me over, they look like the team to beat. 

Bayern Munich 1-1 (agg 1-4) Manchester City

After Man City scored early in the 2nd half, I kinda faded on the return match. I did see the new Bayern coach get red carded, an ignominious way to go out for the panic-hire (to make an American parallel: Alabama finished #5 this year, made the SEC final and their QB looks to be the #1 pick...obviously time to fire the coach--he's clearly past his prime! Yeah, that's how unnecessary it was for Bayern to sack their coach just last month). Bayern is still strong, they're still one of the premiere squads in Euro soccer, but clearly something is going haywire in Munchen, wonder how long it'll be before they regain their dominance (not that they have far to go). As for Man City, they're playing loose and free, moving the ball well and getting results. Feels like the Real-Man City semifinal is the real championship, no?

Inter Milan 3-3 (agg 5-2) Benfica

Didn't catch much of this one (why only the split viewing, Paramount+?), kinda wish I did looking at that fat score line. Benfica is a nice team but they just didn't have the finishing power to hang this deep in the tourney (though they did get three across in their final game, perhaps they just needed to get going sooner). Not sure Inter is one of the four best teams I've seen so far, but they're still here, so good luck to 'em. A derby in the semifinals? Nice!

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (Predictions)

East

Heat - Bucks

The Bucks have been good all season long without really being dominant at any point. They don't look like a world beater, they just look like they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. But that was the regular season and while I think they'll need to go to another level to get through the East, Giannis and co. should be ready to thrash whoever they meet in the 1st round. Turns out they'll be facing the Heat, who just last year were a Jimmy Butler 3 away from going to the Finals. But this year the Heat offense has been sluggish at best and while you can't sleep on Butler, Bam and Coach Spo, you can sleep on the rest of the roster because there's not a lot of danger over there because unless there's a Duncan Robinson renaissance or Kyle Lowry turns from a frog into a prince, I just don't see enough offense to hang. Bucks in 5.

Hawks - Celtics

The Hawks have been the most maddeningly .500 team I think I've ever seen. Adding Coach Snyder will pay long term dividends but I don't think he'll have enough impact to matter in this series. The Celtics are capable of falling asleep from time to time and I expect Trae Young to steal himself some lunch money, but I don't see the Hawks truly competing with the Celtics (on the other hand, the Hawks don't have winning or losing streaks, so don't be shocked if this goes 7 games, even though I think the Celtics are a vastly better team). Celtics in 6.

Nets - Sixers

I like this Nets roster but the reason they're in the playoffs is because Durant piled up W's before demanding a trade. The Nets have a bevy of wing talent but there's no definition to that offense and they desperately need that one STAR to shoulder the burden, get buckets and be a leader (god, if Ben Simmons could be just a hint of his peak, this team could be really good! But....). So while I like their ability to run around and make the Sixers crazy, I don't see the Nets winning any games (this team needs to wheel and deal this summer, keep an eye on them). Sixers in 4.

Knicks - Cavs

Great series! The Knicks have been revitalized by adding Jalen Brunson last summer and Josh Hart at the deadline and look fun again for the first time in ages. But I think the Cavs are a deeper team, a more reliable squad, and though the Knicks can make weird things happen, I like the Cavs to overcome through steady play at both ends. I like the Knicks to push them but I'll say Cavs in 7.

West

Wolves - Nuggets

The Nuggets were so dominant for so long this year that they mailed in the last coupla months and still finished 1st. Wouldn't be shocked to see them drop Game One of this series, but that will merely be the punch in the mouth they need to get right. I would've given the Thunder a chance at screwing with the Nugget energy, but the Wolves are a shit show, man, a team that has been out of sorts all....well, decade, right? I like the Nuggets in 5. 

Lakers - Grizzlies

The Lakers managed to swap Russell Westbrook for a batch of worthy supporting players, but I gotta admit that I'm not sold on their rotation, their coach or their stars. Anthony Davis has been pretty great but the Grizzlies are gonna wear him the fuck out and while Lebron is still a solid scorer, he's not the leader, the anchor, that he has been throughout his career. The Grizzlies have been out of whack for the last coupla months (who knew Stephen Adams was so damn important?) but the playoffs will reorient them and a 1st round match with Lebron-AD and the vaunted Lakers is a perfect white whale for them to slay. I think the Grizzlies win every 4th quarter and make the Lakers look daffy. I'll give the Lakers a game because I think they've got one good game in them. Grizzlies in 5.

Warriors - Kings

Okay! The Warriors struck me as the team to beat coming into the year. But the "punch" (Draymond connecting with Jordan Poole's glass chin) got them off to a bad start, the inability of James Wiseman to fit in led to a desperation trade (that bought back an injury-hobbled Gary Payton II), a bizarrely inconsistent season from Andrew Wiggins, disappointing production from Jonathon Kuminga, Moses Moody and Poole and a truly horrific road record (11-30, ugh!), left them scrambling for 6th place, when I thought they'd be rolling into the post-season. The Kings are in the playoffs for the 1st time in almost 20 years and play pretty much no defense at all. The Kings' strategy is to score 130 e'ry night and see who can hang with them and while I think that would get them by most teams in the West, the Warriors might be the one squad willing to take that challenge. Here's the money shot: it all comes down to Game Six. If the Warriors are up 3-2 going into that game, they'd better finish it off because the Kings are great at home and the Warriors suck on the road. The path for the Warriors is clear, but I like the Kings to get it to Game Seven and get it done. Kings in 7.

Clippers - Suns

The Suns are the popular pick to come out of the West and that is reasonable. The Clippers have a deep roster that manages to never look as deep as needed, while the Suns are coming off an injury-plagued, trade-deadlined roster that has yet to gel. Kawhi has looked pretty great in his limited minutes but not as great as Durant, so let us call that match up a wash. Booker v Paul George is also likely to play to a draw. So Chris Paul against Russell Westbrook/Bones Hyland platoon is probably making the difference, since CP has a better shot at maximizing Deande Ayton than whatever the Clippers will get out of Ivaca Zubac. I like the Clippers to get to game 7 but I think their season ends in the desert. Suns in 7.

2nd Round

Bucks over Cavs in 7

Celtics over Sixers in 7

Nuggets over Suns in 7

Grizzlies over Kings in 7

3rd Round

Bucks over Celtics in 7

Nuggets over Grizzlies in 6

Finals

Bucks over Nuggets in 7

(Feels like a lot of long series, pushing the maximum number of games this season. Seasonal load management might determine the champion)

2023 Champions League Quarterfinals (1st leg)

Benfica 0-2 Inter Milan

Benfica felt like the stronger team in the 1st half, though both teams seemed roughly equally dangerous around the goal. But Inter was able to find the goal soon after halftime and really changed the shape of Benfica's attack. Inter got a late PK to pile on that I thought was flaky: yeah, it hit the defender's hand but I didn't think it was that meaningful, especially considering that the ref chose to neglect a physical challenge in the 1st half that would've given Benfica penalty. I don't find Inter to be wildly better than Benfica, but hard to go against them heading back home with a 2 goal advantage. 

Manchester C 3-0 Bayern Munich

Man City was just better all over the field. Bayern is in a weird place: they're still solid but they're not as dominant as they've been for the last decade or so, they panic-fired their new coach (which I thought was not necessary) and they no longer look untouchable in the Bundesliga. I still say they're one of the finer teams in Europe but trying to come back 3 goals down against Man City is gonna be tough (whereas I would've given them a puncher's chance in the Lewandowski days). If Man City gets a goal, I don't see how Bayern can even get lucky in the return match.

Real Madrid 2-0 Chelsea

Real Madrid was more comfortable in possession, more dangerous around the goal, and once Chelsea went down a man, their counter attack chances faded badly. Chelsea didn't get rolled but it never felt like they were in this game. Chelsea needs their best game of the year to move on--not impossible but Real looks too good right now. 

AC Milan 1-0 Napoli

Napoli's possession was better but Milan's counter attack (particularly in the 1st half) produced a slew of good scoring chances. Napoli was probably the better team and I wouldn't be surprised to see them have a stronger result back at home, but Milan was more dangerous around the goal (they may regret not adding a second goal).  This one is still up in the air, I can totally see Napoli rocking Milan in the 2nd leg.

2023 Masters

The Masters hit me kinda sideways this year. I watched a ton of golf on Thursday and on Friday (til it got rained out). But I missed most of Saturday, where they finished the 2nd round but couldn't finish the 3rd. And on Sunday I road tripped with a friend thinking that they wouldn't finish and I'd be able to dedicate my Monday to leftover Masters action. Well, no. Turns out the weather was accomodating and they blasted through the 3rd round in the morning, setting up a traditional Sunday Masters.  

Jon Rahm outlasting Brooks Koepka was not a shock, those two were set up for a rousing finish and feels like Koepka didn't have it in him.  Koepka was able to breeze through the 2nd round on Friday before the rains came, leaving everyone else to scramble while he played a pretty ordinary set. 

All I really noticed this year: no one putted well. No one. Guess Rahm and Koepka and Mickelson did better than most but there were virtually none of those killer way-downtown putts that fills out the highlights every year. 

Here's Rahm's Sunday, a little lacking on context, but still a champion performance. 

Rahm was the man, Koepka was the only one that could've made a move on him. And the fact that Rahm outlasted him feels like a perfectly scripted Masters. 

2023 NCAA Men's Final Four

Florida Atlantic 71-72 San Diego St

While watching the tourney it struck me that FAU was not a fluke--indeed, I expect teams like this to dominate the next few tourneys. What are they? A mid-level powerhouse filled with juniors and seniors that know their game and know who they are, as opposed to Freshman-phenom-led bluebloods that have to reinvent themselves every few weeks. FAU was a good team but here in this game, they just lost track of how much time was left, I'd say, because that's what happened to me while watching the game. Spoiler alert: San Diego State stole the game on a buzzer beater and that was their only lead in the 2nd half of the game. But, like FAU, I was already moving on to the next game, when on the final possession, it dawned on me, ''oh shit, San Diego can win this!" And, well, they did. We love buzzer beaters, love the drama, and that's all great, but...man, San Diego State was not as good as FAU and were not a better opponent to UConn in the final. Fun game, fun conclusion, one that will be in the reel with all the classic tourney moments for a while, but not the right conclusion because FAU was the better team and the more worthy finalist. 

Miami 59-72 Connecticut

Yeah, we love the upsets and tumult of the tourney but then when you end up four so-so teams at the end, it doesn't seem worth it. Miami was not particularly good, they could not hang with UConn at all and this game was rather boring. Yeah, I'm making it sound like UConn was a powerhouse--no! Oh, no, not at all. They have a big guy down low (Adama Sanogo) that was unstoppable (at the NCAA level) and a nice wing shooter (Jordan Hawkins) and, uh, that was it. UConn kinda fell asleep in the 2nd half and got away from the obvious game plan of feeding Sanogo, which allowed Miami to get back into it, but Miami was never going to win this game, they just didn't have enough, but UConn did have a stretch of trying to give it away. 

San Diego St 59-76 Connecticut

Okay, I'll say it: this UConn team is the least impressive champion of my lifetime. Indeed, that is such an easy call, I haven't bothered to come up with another candidate. Again, Adama Sanogo is a nice college player (I don't see him at the next level at all) and Hawkins is a nice wing shooter (probably his ceiling would be the next Kyle Kuzma) and that's it; don't be fooled that their long-armed defense kept San Diego State at bay--San Diego State had no offense at all and had no business being anywhere near the final game. UConn won the tourney--I don't begrudge them their championship, I'm just saying, this is the least impressive champion I've ever seen. And now they've got 5, good for them (but FAU has a better shot of being back next year than UConn--and would've given UConn a better match than San Deigo State ever could have!).