2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after two rounds)

East

Cavs over Pistons in 7

This felt like a classic home team wins every game series and for the first 4 games, that's how it played. Then the Cavs stole Game Five in Detroit: Pistons were up 9 with 3 minutes to go, the game felt well in hand to me, but then the Pistons just straight ran out of gas and could not score again to save their lives. The Cavs took it to OT and dominated the extra period. But the Pistons came back strong in Cleveland, while the Cavs floundered badly and it went back to Detroit for Game Seven. Right away, the Cavs got buckets, Donovan Mitchell was getting assists finding Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen, the Pistons couldn't get their shooting going and it was all over. The Pistons vaunted D absolutely cratered as their lack of offense turned into confident possessions for the Cavs. 

The Pistons were a one-note team all year long but at the end of the season they kept getting W's without Cade and that impressed me, I thought the supporting cast could go up a level once Cade got back. In their best moments against the Magic and the Cavs, that kinda happened; but in their worser moments, it did not. Jalen Duren had a frighteningly bad (considering it is a contract year for him) run against Wendell Carter and Evan Mobley, Tobias Harris had to work too hard to find his scoring (when he did find it), Ausar Thompson's complete lack of offense becomes glaring in the post-season, Duncan Robinson had a nice run but missed a coupla games, Isiah Stewart and Paul Reid had some nice moments but didn't really sustain, Kevin Huerter was hurt and Daniss Jenkins is nice--the only guy that showed up for Game Seven!--but wasn't much of a difference maker. The rotation behind Cade is just so-so, which really makes you appreciate how damn good Cade was this year. The season was a pleasant surprise but, man, this summer is not looking good for them. They have a lot of questions, we'll see if they come up with some answers. 

Knicks over Sixers in 4

The Knicks got hot against the Hawks and kept it going. I didn't watch much of this series, because it was over so quick. The Knicks are on a seven game winning streak, playing their best ball of the season. 

The Sixers overachieved against the Celtics (who underachieved) only to receive a vicious reminder that they were not one of the best 8 teams in the NBA this year. Tyrese Maxey is stretching into a great team leader, VJ Edgecombe would've won Rookie of the Year in most seasons and Paul George really found something after his suspension late in the season. I've never been a Joel Embiid fan (and I'm still not), but he must still be considered part of their core because the Sixers are on the hook for another $180m to him so clearly he's not going anywhere. Adem Bona is a workable rotation guy. They got important minutes out of Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes and Andre Drummond this year, are any of those guys coming back and, if not, how do they get replaced? Where do they go from here? They've got Maxey and Edgecombe and the #22 pick...and...well....they've still got their 1st rounder for 2027, so I'm guessing they're on their way to a rebuild (I believe they call it a "Process" in Philly).  Could they swap Paul George for Jimmy Butler to get off big money without picking up any stray W's? They've already fired GM Darryl Morey, just the beginning of a clumsy summer ahead for the Sixers.

West

Thunder over Lakers in 4

Yawn! Another quick shredding for the Thunder that I barely paid attention to. 

The Lakers were without Luka Doncic for the entire series and as Austin Reaves was returning from an injury, his performance was up and down. Lebron is still a great player but he was all alone out there, squeezing what he could out of Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard and a mildly rejuvenated Marcus Smart (he was pretty good actually, but just not enough to make a difference). They didn't have enough to even come close to hanging with the Thunder. With Luka, maybe they would've scratched a game or two out of them, but I doubt even that would've made much difference. Next year, all they have right now is Luka, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia and Dalton Knecht with player options on Ayton (maybe), Smart (probably not) and Reaves, who they need to re-sign (or sign and trade) and the #25 pick . Will they bring back Lebron (doesn't seem like it) or Kennard (I doubt it) or Hachimura (I have no idea). Do people want to play with Luka? Do they want the bright lights of the Lakers? 

Spurs over Wolves in 6

News flash: Wemby is awesome and Dillon Harper is ready to be a major player. Weird series in that all the games were blow outs, as well matched as these two seemed to be, there were no interesting 4th quarters in the whole series. The three headed monster of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper ran roughshod over the undermanned Wolves. When the Wolves were able to find their shooting touch, they won, but they just didn't do that often enough. They had a lot of length to throw at Wemby but without the requisite scoring, it didn't matter. Julius Randle was set up to be the difference maker and in the first game, he was exactly that; then....he never did that again and whatever advantage the Wolves had evaporated. Also, Rudy Gobert was not good in this series, I wouldn't say he got dominated by Wemby, he just wasn't good. And there was just too much Mike Conley, who had to play expanded minutes because of the loss of Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs are ahead of schedule and not afraid of the OKC Thunder.

Can the Wolves run it back? Are we ready to say that Gobert is not the Wemby Kryptonite the Wolves need and therefore needs to be traded? Not sure. Is Joan Beringer ready to be the new Gobert and/or the new Wemby Kryptonite? Not sure. Is Naz Reid overrated or underrated? Not sure. (*) Ayo Dosunmu was a revelation against the Nuggets but was mostly invisible against the Spurs 3-guard attack; Bones Hyland, too, emerged against the Nuggets and then submerged against the Spurs; so do they bring those guys back or let them walk? Not sure. Terrence Shannon had moments in this playoff run, is he ready to be a regular contributor in that offense? Not sure. Julius Randle had good moments and bad moments--which he's done his entire career--do they move on from him or hope that he bounces back? Not sure. This team has Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and....a whole lot of "not sure". I'd say Shannon and Beringer are definitely gonna be a big part of next year's lineup and I would certainly keep Reid, but Gobert and Randle will probably be available and I'm not sure how eager they are to keep Dosunmu, Hyland or Conley. For a team that made back-to-back Western Finals and had moments of looking competitive with the Spurs, the Wolves might be a totally different team next year.

Predictions

Cavs - Knicks

The Cavs have been an unpredictable disappointment guided by Donovan Mitchell (finally reaching the pinnacle of his career right now), James Harden (overrated in his prime and now past his prime) and Even Mobley (projected to be the next super stud who is actually just a nice, overpaid play). When these three bring their best, the Cavs can run up the score, move the ball and play enough defense to hold a lead. But when they don't, it just looks awful and frustrating. Their wins against the Raptors and the Pistons were enlivening, but the losses were dispiriting. To be fair, those are two of the better defenses in the league--both much better than the Knicks--and the Cavs managed to find a way. 

The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season right now but, to be fair, those wins came against the overachieving Hawks and the lucky-to-be-here Sixers, not as impressive as the Cavs opponents. OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl-Anthony Towns is attacking and avoiding the dumb mistakes that have plagued him his whole career, Josh Hart is running around like a mad man and Jalen Brunson has done just enough, mostly able to keep his powder dry. If the Knicks keep this going, they can roll right over the Cavs, who would fall to pieces under such an onslaught. But if the Knicks falter, have a bad shooting, or run into foul trouble, this series could sideways with a quickness. Indeed, the Knicks could be riding for a major fall--and Knicks fans know it better than anyone. 

The Knicks are the better team but are quite capable of blowing it. The Cavs have the necessary pieces but have yet to really properly deploy those pieces. I'm gonna go off the board: I think the key matchup is Jarret Allen v Mikal Bridges. When the Knicks are rolling, Bridges is the big beneficiary, but when he disappears (which was a lot against the Hawks), the Knicks don't get those extra productivity bumps; the Cavs have never found the right balance for Mobley and Allen, but against the Pistons, it felt to me like their roles emerged. If they overpower Mitchell, it'll require Towns and/or Hart to change up the way they play. It is a seemingly small thing, but if Allen can keep up his play at both ends, that makes everything so much easier for Mobley, which in turn makes everything harder for the Knicks defense. The Knicks think they can outscore the Cavs, but Allen could be the key to upsetting that equilibrium.

Also, unlike the Cavs-Pistons series where I thought the home team had the advantage, I think the opposite in this series. The Knicks can dominate in Cleveland while I think the Cavs could silence the NYC crowd. I'm going reverse home court advantage: I like the Cavs in 6.

Spurs - Thunder

Gonna be awesome. Can't wait. I haven't watched much Thunder (because neither the Suns nor the Lakers put up much to watch) this post-season and really only glimpses here and there of the Spurs (the Blazers were harmless fun but the Wolves games were all too one-sided to be watchable). I think the Thunder are the best roster in the NBA and really only the Spurs can hang with them. What's gonna happen? No idea. I will make this prediction: the Spurs wins will all be close, but the Thunder's wins might becomes blowouts. I'll take Thunder in 7 (solely because I want to see this match up the maximum number of times). 

(*) To me the answer is Naz Reid is underrated, but I've yet to meet anyone that agrees with me--which only proves me right! (Right?)

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after one round)

East

Pistons 93-79 Magic

Magic 94-116 Pistons

After getting killed at halftime of Game Five, the Pistons finally turned their game back on and left the Magic in the dust. The Magic have a nice collection of players (which is why ever year we think "this is the year for the Magic!"), but I've never quite understood how they fit together (which is why they've been disappointing for 3 straight years). The Magic blew out the Hornets in the play-in, then won 3 out of 4 against the Pistons, then took a mighty lead to halftime of Game Five....but it was a just a sugar rush, a rare moment when everyone got hot. They couldn't sustain it. I thought Wendell Carter was great for the first few games but he faded down the stretch, Desmond Bane had his moments, too, but not enough of them and Jarrell Suggs is additive on defense but everyone else has to be going for his efforts to really shine through. I have newfound respect for Paulo (Cade Jr.) Banchero, that kid is a monster, but he's just a kid and he didn't have enough around him. The Pistons, a strangely similar team as the Magic, have better veterans and had more sustained success all season long, and though they are still too one-dimensional, at least they know what their dimension is and get back to that model often enough to be a tough out going forward. 

Knicks 140-89 Hawks

Stop! They're already dead! Man, this one was over super fast. OG Anunoby single-handedly destroyed the Hawks in Game Six and everyone else did, too. The Hawks just couldn't get anything going, while the Knicks were scoring in every way possible. Knicks in 6 was about right the whole time, but they did scuffle from time to time and let the Hawks have the feeling that they had a chance. The Hawks are moving in the right direction, I think they finally have a proper core to build around, I still like the coach and they gave the Knicks some truly feisty moments. But they weren't ready for this series and the Knicks were. The Knicks finally took control in the last two games and stifled the upstarts. 

Celtics 93-106 Sixers

Sixers 109-100 Celtics

Somewhere in the 3rd quarter of Game Five, the Celtics just kinda gave up. In that match they overplayed Tatum and Brown, got away from their bench mob style they employed so real all season long and wanted to have a star contest, which led to Joel Embiid coming back from the dead and Jaysun Tatum going back to the injured list. I'm a big fan of Coach Mazzulo but, man, I put this loss on him: he did everything right all season long and then mixed it up going into the post-season and I don't understand why. The bench mob style was working and even if you think that can't go deep in the playoffs, it got you a 3-1 lead in the first round, why not stick to what's working? In the 4th quarter of Game Seven Jaylen Brown finally came alive and there was an opportunity for the Celtics to shoot their way to the next round, but it just didn't happen. I understand if you think you have to tighten up the rotation against the Knicks or Cavs but the open style they played all year long should've worked against the Sixers. As for the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey (the LEADER of this team!) was awesome, Paul George really turned it on in the last few games, I thought rookie VJ Edgecombe was up and down (the Sixers won his good games and lost his bad games), and they were able to get some quality offense out of Embiid. If they can keep their ultra-fast guards in tune with their slow-burn veterans, they could give the Knicks a scare.

Cavs 110-112 (OT) Raptors

Raptors 102-114 Cavs

In Game Six, I thought the Raptors had the game won, like, three different times, but then I thought the Cavs had it won three different times, too! I can't remember a game that went back and forth so late like that. I still thought the Cavs were the better team throughout and really should've finished it off in Game Six. For the Cavs to let this get a 7th game was a real head-scratcher. But the Raptors play hard and took the Cavs to 7 games without Immanuael Quickley or Brandon Ingram, but when Scottie Barnes (*) got into foul trouble in the 3rd quarter of Game Seven, that was pretty much it for Toronto. It was like taking the engine out of a car....it still has a radio, I guess, but its not much of a car. The Cavs felt their anuses tightening but James Harden and Donovan Mitchell were both able to skate through Game Seven without much consternation. Man, Barnes just works so f'n hard, he alone makes the Raptors a pain in the ass, if they could get some real help around him (I should admit at this point I'm not much of an RJ Barrett fan, big guy can make plays from time to time but when push comes to shove he's sloppy and in over his head), the Raptors might be a real contender in the East next year. As for the Cavs, they got good minutes from Dean Wade and Max Strus and there were moments when Evan Mobley really came alive, you can see the outline of a really good team here, we'll see if they can give the Pistons a shock.

West

Nuggets 98-110 Wolves

Jaden McDaniels! Donte DiVincenzo is out, Anthony Edwards is out, no problem, Jaden McDaniels will make up the difference. It felt like the Nuggets finally had their ducks in a row, felt like the best supporting cast they'd had in a while, but Christain Braun wasn't the answer, Cam Johnson was up and down and never really felt right in the rotation and Bruce Brown wasn't the same guy he was when they went on their championship run. Jamal Murray had maybe his best season but he was asked to do too much in the post-season and Nikola Jokic (another MVP season, I say) was just gassed at the end of these games and never felt in command the way he usually does. There's gonna be some serious soul-searching this summer in Denver, because it felt last summer like they'd finally figured it out....and they had not. As for the Wolves, hey man Rudy Gobert has ALWAYS been good against Jokic! And Julius Randall does not back down from any situation and they got good minutes from Naz Reid and Mike Conley and the rest of their rotation was ready for anything. This Wolves squad, assuming they got Edwards back soon, is gonna be a tough out for the Spurs. 

Lakers 98-78 Rockets

Man, as flimsy as the Lakers 3-1 lead felt in this series, in a year when 3-1 leads were going by the wayside, it still never felt like the Rockets were gonna get their shit together. I thought Coach Udoka was the right guy for this roster and I thought Kevin Durant was the right guy to add last summer, but it looks to me like those are the two dudes that kept this team from rising up. Coach Udoka just never found Jabari Smith's role and he never gave the keys to Reed Sheppard--dude, it doesn't matter if you don't like those guys, those are the guys you have! Coach never figured out how to build an offense with them. Instead he turned the team entirely over to KD, who was good enough to pile up stats but not good enough to lead a team to wins in the post-season. I still like most of what this roster has but, man, Durant has to go and I suddenly think the coach has to go, too, even though it wasn't that long ago they felt like the ideal guiding lights. This is Sengun's team, Thompson is the perfect right-hand man, but Jabari and Reed have to find their place on this squad and if they can't work them in, then this team will go nowhere. The Rockets don't need to re-build, they just need to re-think what they've got. As for the Lakers, Lebron, baby, still got it!

Quarterfinals

Cavs @ Pistons

The Cavs really should be the better team and while the Pistons don't play with frenzy the way the Raptors do, they will be more reliable scorers and defenders, which is gonna be just as hard for the Cavs to deal with. The Magic were young guns playing with house money and they caught the Pistons off guard, but the Pistons weathered the storm and are the better (version of the same) team, but the veteran savvy of the Cavs is a totally different matter. The Cavs and Pistons were just waiting for each other, but they both scuffled against younger, hungrier (if dumber) teams that made them each work in a way that feels depleting rather than invigorating. So who has more left in the tank? Well, the Pistons are still too one-dimensional and for all the praise being heaped on Tobias Harris, I thought he mostly sucked until Game Seven; but Harris the vet against the other vets, should probably be a more consistent scorer. Jalen Duren had troubles early on against Wendell Carter, but eventually managed to make the plays necessary; I kinda think against Evan Mobley, it'll be the other way around: Duren should have his way with Mobley early on, it is a matter of whether Mobley can swing the momentum (which is a 50/50 prospect). The supporting cast of the Cavs (Wade, Strus, Schroeder) actually strikes me as better than the Pistons supporting cast (Robinson, Thompson, Stewart, Huerter), but not wildly so and actually Thompson alone can reek the Raptors-style havoc that may pull the Cavs apart. To me this comes down to the Pistons one dimension (Cade Cunningham) versus the Cavs' two-headed monster (Donovan Mitchell, James Harden). If the Cavs can comfortably pass back responsibility and get buckets, they can win this series; but if they struggle then Cade's consistency can rule the day. Though I find the Pistons' one-dimensional-ness a liability, I think it's more reliable than the Cavs. I think the Pistons take this in 7.

Sixers @ Knicks

The Sixers found a potent mix of youthful energy (Maxey, Edgecombe) and veteran contemplation (George, Embiid) against the Celtics and were able to pull the better team apart. Can they do that to the Knicks? Well, the trick to the Knicks is: they will either pull themselves apart or they won't, the opponent doesn't much matter. I think the Knicks are better when Karl-Anthony Towns is aggressive, when Towns is the one setting the scene for the Knicks offense as opposed to Jalen Brunson, who I think is better as the emergency option, the change of pace guy that flips the script. Starting with Towns and moving to Brunson is their best bet, I think, because it gets the supporting cast open shots early on and then morphs them to crashing the boards and/or getting into transition defense. If their energy flows to getting everyone involved on offense first and then defense to close, that just strikes me as the best possible Knicks effort. The Sixers seem overly reliant on Embiid, babying him along early in the game, hoping they can get something out of him later on. To me, this is Maxey's team, you let Maxey figure out the best way to utilize Embiid and just trust that model. That said, Embiid has been effective and if he starts hitting his 3's, then it might really stretch the Knicks defense out of shape, allowing room for Edgecombe to tear shit up. I think the best version of the Knicks is better than the best version of the Sixers, but the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Sixers will probably be better than whatever the Knicks collapse into. It is important for the Knicks to control these games and I think they will, but I think the Sixers are offbeat enough to make them work. I like Knicks in7

Lakers @ Thunder

I didn't watch a single minute of the Thunder over the Suns. On the one hand, I haven't seen them so I don't know what they look like; on the other hand, I didn't have to watch them, which suggests they're doing just fine and I know exactly what that looks like. The Thunder are the most low-key colossus of my lifetime: they don't rush, they don't fret, they don't dominate, they're just better than you. They don't make dumb mistakes and they don't panic. (**) Are they better than the Lakers? Absolutely! The Lakers have been without Luka Doncic so far in the post-season, I presume he'll be returning soon. The rest of the squad had a nice little run against the Rockets, a perfect team-building exercise, where Hachimura had moments, Luke Kennard looked damn good at times, Austin Reaves stretched his legs after some time off and Deandre Ayton is steadily becoming what they want him to be. And Lebron is still a  maestro. If I'm the Lakers, I'd like to give this iteration of the team a couple games before bringing back Luka. I want to see if this new team concept can really find the gumption to surprise the Thunder in Game One (not impossible). Then we see how OKC reacts, then the Lakers can bring back Luka in Game Three (if he's ready). Then it becomes Luka's team again but ideally with a period of everyone figuring out their best contribution. Meh, its worth something like a shot. I like this Lakers squad, they're playing pretty good and if OKC falters or has some weird out of body experience, I think this Laker team is the kind of team that can rise to the occasion. But I don't think OKC will falter much, they've played well against the Lakers over the years, I don't think they're afraid of Luka or Lebron or the Laker aura. In fact I think they see the Lakers as exactly the kind of team they can finish off pronto. I like the Thunder in 5. 

Wolves @ Spurs

An interesting one. The Spurs are probably a year ahead of schedule, the Wolves have made back-to-back Final Fours. Veteran savvy or youthful exuberance? I like the Spurs, obviously everyone credits Wemby, and he's due some flowers. But I think this is De'Aaron Fox's team and the real marginal growth is coming from Stefon Castle. At this point, Wemby is still just a bonus, which is why they're a year early (***). What is the relationship between Wemby and Gobert? Who has whose number in that matchup? Don't know yet, but we're gonna find out. Losing Divencenzo is a real heart breaker for the Wolves and if Edwards misses significant time, then this is probably a wrap. But if Edwards can counter Fox and McDaniels can muzzle Castle, then this is a real series. Who do the Spurs have to match up with Julius Randle? Randle is the wild card, it feels like the other matchups will neutralize each other, so it is up to Randle to shoot the Wolves into (or out of) the next round. I think the Spurs aren't quite ready, I think Gobert is playing really well right now and gonna take it to Wemby, I think Edwards, McDaniels and Randle can overpower Fox and Castle. I like the Wolves in 6.

(*) How do we get Scottie Barnes and Paulo Banchero together? Or Barnes with Cade and a Thompson twin? Dear God.....

(**) When I first sat down to do my MVP evaluation, I didn't even have Shai Gilgeous in my top 10. This is largely because OKC is so well-balanced that SGA doesn't have to go above and beyond all that often, SGA doesn't have to bust out and put up big numbers because the team beyond him can easily make up for an off night. On the other hand, the team has the luxury to go off from time to time because their leader is so poised and consistent that he makes things easy for everyone else. So is SGA the MVP because he's so slyly awesome or is he not because his supporting cast makes it easy for him? What a beautiful conundrum for OKC to have. 

(***) Oh and if Dillon Harper becomes next year's blow up guy for the Spurs, that means they'll be able to keep Wemby on a pitch count for another year. This isn't even Wemby's team yet--and probably won't be for two more years! Wemby is still just icing, they don't even need him to be cake for another year or two!