MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
My pre-season pick for the MVP was Anthony Davis (Pelicans), jeez what a wasted year from such a great player. (*) But Giannis was in my list of guys ready for a bust-out season--oh man, he busted out! Down to the wire I was inclined to go with James Harden (Rockets) because he carried his team for stretches of the season in a way that Giannis didn't have to (though there's something to be said for the fact that Giannis allows his teammates the room to be their best whereas for Harden teammates are cinder blocks to be dragged along). But in the end I went with Giannis because I thought he had great defensive season, as well (see below), and because his team ended up with the best record in the league and because--I'll say it--he's just a lot more fun to watch than Harden.
That said, Harden had another great year carrying the Rockets through injuries, just missing out on the #2 seed in the West, and flat out dominating the league for weeks at a time. Harden is putting his stamp on Player of the Decade, wouldn't you say? I've had him in my top three for MVP for at least 5 straight years and I fully expect him to be there next year, don't you?
2nd: James Harden (Rockets), 3rd: Steph Curry (Warriors), 4th: Damian Lillard (Blazers), 5th: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
DPOY
Giannis Antetonkounmpo (Bucks)
From the perimeter to the rim, he was the best defender in the league by far this season. He's got the reach and the foot speed to hang with the best outside shooters and the size and the hops to bang with the big guys down low. And he's got the skills and smarts to start the break (that is, turning defense into offense). There's nothing that guy can't do on the court--and he's still getting better.
That said: I firmly believe Andre Drummond (Pistons) is now the most underrated player in the league. League leader in offensive and defensive rebounds, top five in steals and blocks (league leader in those stats combined) and among the league leaders in 2-point attempts and free throw attempts (thought admittedly he's a godawful free throw shooter). Yet, I hardly hear him mentioned in the pundits' all-defense teams. He's busting his ass out there for a team that no longer appreciates him and I think it's a damn shame that the even the chattering classes don't seem to notice.
All-defense:
1st team: G: Marcus Smart (Celtics), Klay Thompson (Warriors); F: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), Paul George (Thunder); C: Andre Drummond (Pistons)
2nd team: G: Eric Bledsoe (Bucks), Russell Westbrook (Thunder); F: Ben Simmons (Sixers), Jerami Grant (Thunder); C: Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
Rookie
Luka Doncic (Mavs)
He was my pre-season pick and he was great from beginning to end. Trae Young (Hawks) had a great second half after starting kinda slow and was so much better than I thought he'd be. But I gotta stick with Luka, so much upside, so much potential dominance and still so young. He controls the game as a rookie and that's impressive, not unlike Ben Simmons (Sixers) last year but with better ability to score. Next year when Porzingis comes in and the roster gets overhauled, the Mavs could be primed for a big jump right away and the optimism is first and foremost because of Luka.
Digging into the numbers I found myself more impressed with Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Collin Sexton (Cavs) than I expected to be and even more impressed with Landry Shamet (Clippers) than I already was. Another good batch of rookies this year--and we didn't even get to see much of Harry Giles (Kings), Omari Spellman (Hawks), Mo Bamba (Magic) or Zhaire Smith (Sixers) and what we saw of Kevin Knox (Knicks) and Wendell Carter (Bulls) was not as good as it should've been, I still think those guys are gonna be really good.
2nd: Trae Young (Hawks), 3rd: Marvin Bagley (Kings), 4th: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Clippers); 5th: Mitchell Robinson (Knicks). And I really liked Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies), Deandre Ayton (Suns), Landry Shamet (Sixers/Clippers), Jalen Brunson (Mavs), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Kevin Huerter (Hawks), Miles Bridges (Hornets), Alonzo Trier (Knicks), and Rodions Kurucs (Nets). Another strong rookie class.
6th Man
Lou Williams (Clippers)
How soon before we just re-name this the Lou Williams Award? In today's NBA dudes don't want to come off the bench, they'd rather get fewer minutes overall and less time at the end of the game as long as they're there at the start. Weird. Lou, on the other hand, sees the benefit of letting the game develop before he steps on the court. For all bench players he led (by a mile!) in points and free throw attempts and sports a gaudy asst:to ratio. Really his only competition is his teammate Montrezl Harrel (Clippers), who has a huge number of FTA while leading bench players in rebounds, too--but in Harrel's case it makes you wonder why he doesn't start more?
When digging into the numbers (players who started fewer than half of their games played), the ones that most jumped out at me were Monte Morris (Nuggets) with a killer asst:to, among the leaders in points, steals, minutes played, shot 49% from the field, 41% from 3--dang! That's pretty good. Also Dmontas Sabonis (Pacers), Terrence Ross (Magic) and the ageless Derrick Rose (Wolves) had pretty good seasons off the bench, too.
My pre-season pick was Isaiah Thomas (Nuggets) with the thinking that he could be a real spark off the bench for them but that never came to fruition. Instead it was Morris and Malik Beasley who formed the core of the Nuggets 2nd string, while Thomas never quite fit in.
Most Improved
Paksal Siakam (Raptors)
Siakam went from being a nice role player to a potential star at both ends of the court, upping his usage and efficiency simultaneously--that doesn't happen much in this world. It's not uncommon to see a fine young player getting 10 MPG and thinking he'd be so much better at 20 MPG but then he's not because diminishing returns sets in and while he gets better in the first five minutes, he actually becomes a detriment in the last five minutes. That is precisely the scenario that Siakam avoided this year, going from a role player in the 2nd unit to becoming a more important role player with the starters and busting out in every statistical category (and in the all-important eye test). He's comfortable in a variety of defensive roles and more proficient with the ball and in transition that I would've even thought possible. I knew he was good, didn't know he was this good, Siakam is a vital part of one of the 4-5 best teams in the league and no one saw that coming.
I was gonna throw the curve ball and go with Giannis (Bucks) here because he was my MVP and DPOY (**), which is an amazing jump by any reckoning. But looking back to last season, he was in my top five for both of those awards and I expected him to make a leap this year, so I can't really say this was out of the blue, especially since he was also joined by my Coach of the Year (see below). Last year I forgot to menion Spencie Dinwiddie (Nets) and this year I almost forgot to mention D'Angelo Russell (Nets), who clearly took a step forward, finally coming into his own as a team leader (though there were still stretches when he was not in the game at crunch time). I was kinda impressed with Danilo Gallinari (Clippers) this year, he's coming off an injury so his numbers were inflated but go back to the previous year and this year was much better and that's a bit of an anomaly at his age (and his injury-prone-ness). I've always loved Nikola Vucevic (Magic) but he, too, had a nicer than usual season this year.
There was more discussion than I've ever previously heard among the talking heads about whether it was okay to use 2nd year players in this category and while I understand the logic (rookie to sophomore is usually the biggest single year jump in any career), I think contributing to a good team is even more important. Hanging better numbers on a team that goes nowhere doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me, so I think this award is more team-dependent (as opposed to career-dependent) than I would've thought. (Kinda feels like Gordon Hayward (Celtics) is lining up to win this next year, right?)
Coach
Mike Budenholzer (Bucks)
Just to keep the Bucks feeling going, its worth noting that Coach Bud has a lot to do with Giannis going from good to great and the Bucks going from scrappy underdogs to faves in the East. He knew what he had with Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton and used them as the pillars of an architecture to maximize Giannis, get more out of Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez than anyone ever had before and even lure strong contributions from guys like DJ Wilson, Sterling Brown, Pat Connaughton and Donte Divincenzo. Starting with Giannis is every coach's dream but to get the most out of everyone else is how run up the tables and Coach Bud pulled it off.
There were a lot of good candidates this year: Steve Clifford (Magic) looked like another boring retread when hired last summer but he turned the lowly Magic into a defensive juggernaut and a playoff team--and no one saw that coming! Mike Malone (Nuggets) had another fine leap and has gone from being underrated to really really underrated. Doc Rivers (Clippers) withstood a major roster overhaul and came out better than before with a cleaner cap going into the summer, I didn't know Doc had it in him but he had a really good season. Dave Joerger (Kings) did a lot with his ragtag batch of youth and got fired for his efforts (he must be a total dick in real life, right, why else does he keep getting fired despite the good job he keeps doing?).Nick Nurse (Raptors) inherited a good roster but he also inherited many seasons of disappointment, too, and rolled with some major changes to the roster to a chance at a nice run deep into the post-season. Dwayne Casey (Pistons) had a nice season after getting fired for a Coach of the Year-like performance just a year ago, really made the most of a lumpy and weird Pistons roster.
Executive
Jon Horst (Bucks)/Micheal Winger (Clippers)
I sometimes choose a winner for each conference and since I couldn't choose between my top two here, I'll default to taking them both. The Bucks hired the right coach, pulled Brook Lopez off the scrap heap, re-signed Eric Bledsoe to a very reasonable deal, and made mid-season deals for George Hill, Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol (none of them were home runs, but none of them were strikeouts, either) and cruised to the best record in the league. That's a pretty good season and alongside MVP, DPOY and Coach of the Year, this is a fitting accolade.
The Clippers tried to re-sign Tobias Harris last summer, got dissed and then pulled the trigger on a series of sprawling, but ultimately very rewarding trades that netted them Landry Shamet, Ivaca Zubac, JaMychel Green, two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks for a batch of guys that weren't going to re-sign anyway (Wesley Johnson, Tobias Harris, Boban Marjonovic, Micheal Beasley, Alexis Ajinca, Mike Scott, Milos Teodosic, Marcin Gortat, Avery Bradley). They also got an excellent rookie season out of PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, still made the playoffs despite all the changes, cleaned up their books heading into a turbulent summer and--best of all--stuck the dreaded Lakers in the eye! And the season ends on a really optimistic note going forward after a lot of upheavals in the previous coupla years. Man, that was pretty god damn good year for the Clippers!
Other GMs that had excellent seasons: Masai Ujiri (Raptors) fired last year's Coach of the Year and traded away some beloved fan favorites in rather cold-blooded fashion but the moves seem to have worked out and the Raptors are finally poised to make a deep run in the Lebron-less playoffs. Elton Brand (Sixers) remolded the Sixers bench in bold fashion and even though it hasn't made much difference, I do think the moves were worth making. Travis Schlenk (Hawks) drafted well, emptied his roster to make room for the future and hired a solid coach to guide the youth movement; this could've been disastrous and instead the Hawks had a pretty good year and are set going forward.
Oh man, my pre-season pick for this was Rob Pelinka (Lakers), solely because he signed Lebron...but...uh...man, not much else went right for the Lakers this year. The summer signings were all weird and overhyped, the season did not get off particularly well, the attempted trade for Anthony Davis was a full-on disaster, dumping Ivaca Zubac is the most laughable move of recent memory, the youthful core of the roster is in full revolt mode, they were racked by injuries late, Magic's self-immolation just highlighted how dysfunctional and delusional the entire organization is and they capped the season by firing Luke Walton, who everyone still thinks is the next great coach. WTF, dude? Oh and supposedly everyone hates Pelinka. So outside of getting Lebron (which is playing out more curse than blessing), everything he's done has gone horribly wrong, the team does not look any better prepared for the future and everyone hates him--Stephen King couldn't have written a scarier story! Wow, that is a superlative season but not the kind that wins awards.
(*) When going over MVP finalists I came up with a preliminary list of 158 players. Anthony Davis was not one of them. What the fuck, dude? Didn't even crack my top 158 despite going relatively injury-free this year? I had Zach LaVine comfortably ahead of Anthony Davis!?! How is that possible? This will be remembered as the year Davis showed that he doesn't really get how the NBA works, embroiling himself in trade shenanigans that killed his own team and the team he wanted to go (Lakers), wasted a year of his prime and took him from king of New Orleans to persona non grata in his own town. What a god damn shame. I can't say the Pelicans have done much right since they drafted Davis, but they've tried to do right and, frankly, not acquiescing to his demands was the right thing to do in this situation. I'm not sure where Davis goes from here but if he goes into next year with a bad vibe, it could be two wasted seasons and that's just heartbreaking to think about.
(**) Can I make a weird comparison? At this year's Oscars, Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director and Best Cinematography, which I'd liken to winning MVP and DPOY in the same season. Beware though: Cuaron did not win Best Picture, which could be an analogue for Giannis not winning the Championship, no?
Saturday, April 13, 2019
2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Predictions)
East
Bucks over Pistons in 4
Raptors over Magic in 4
Sixers over Nets in 5
Celtics over Pacers in 7
Pistons without Blake Griffin...no way they win even a single game.
Raptors were my pre-season pick (and I'm sticking with 'em). Magic had a nice season, it ends here.
Last year's playoff performance by the Sixers showed they weren't ready to be here but they've thickened the roster (sorta) and I think the Nets have overachieved to get this far. Sixers should breeze.
Okay, here it is: if the Celtics are gonna be as good as they ought to be, then smacking an Oladipo-less Pacer squad should be a given; but they're not there and the Pacers have played really well without him. I still like the Celtics to take it but the Pacers will sweat them.
Bucks over Celtics in 5
Raptors over Sixers in 5
The Celtics still have Kyrie and that's good enough to keep the Celtics competitive even against the best team in the league. But the Bucks remember last year's smack down and they're better in every way this year, I like the Bucks to start strong, win one in Boston and finish it quick.
The Raptors are too disciplined, too deep, too good and the Sixers are still too green and even with all their star power, who's the guy that steps up? The Raptors are too good.
Raptors over Bucks in 7
This is when the playoffs begin. The Bucks have grown by leaps and bounds this year while the Raptors are still strangely the same team they've been for a few years now (despite some big shakeups in the last 12 months). But the Raptors are free of Lebron and it is their time to rule the roost. I like the Bucks, I love Giannis, they've got a solid supporting cast and the Coach of the Year, but I don't think they win Game Seven.
West
Warriors over Clippers in 4
Nuggets over Spurs in 6
Blazers over Thunder in 7
Rockets over Jazz in 5
I like what the Clippers did this year and the Warriors often start slow in the post-season, so the Clippers got a shot, right? Nah. The Clippers have a rookie PG and a bunch of dudes that have never been here before (and they already have an eye toward the off-season); the Warriors are looking at Houston in Round Two, they need to get going and I think they will.
The Spurs have impressed me with their ability to stay above water but the Nuggets' home court advantage and depth are just too much to overcome. I like the Nuggets to come in ready to play.
The Thunder are the squad no one wants to play in the playoffs, the Blazers are the team that underachieve every year late, so it seems like the Thunder are the obvious favorite, right? I'm not seeing it. I kinda love the Blazers as the underdog and I'm weary of the Thunder with more swagger than they deserve (and they could really use Roberson in a series like this). I'll take the Blazers to stare down the mighty Thunder and move on.
The Rockets blew their chance to get the #2 seed but I hardly think that matters, they'll be tough to beat anywhere, any time. I like the Jazz but I kinda liked them better last year...when they got smoked by the Rockets in the playoffs. I just don't see the upside for the Jazz here, I gotta go with the Rockets all the way.
Warriors over Rockets in 7
Blazers over Nuggets in 6
Here's where the playoffs begin! Warriors-Rockets is gonna be a war...I dunno, I'll take the Warriors in Game Seven.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket is the up-and-coming Nuggets with the deep bench, the wily coach, the eye-of-the-storm star in Jokic to keep it all together and the Blazers are the team that disappoints every year. I think the Blazers have more moxy and they know who they are and they'll poke the newcomers in the eye. I like the Blazers.
Warriors over Blazers in 7
The Warriors, after beating the feared Rockets, will think they've got it all taken care of. But the Blazers will be high on house money, feeling themselves and will push the Warriors to the edge. I like the Warriors to get it done when the chips are down, but they'll have to work harder than they've worked in a while.
Finals
Raptors over Warriors in 7
This was my pre-season pick and I'm sticking with it. The Warriors have splintered but they're so damned talented, they'll get all the way to the finish line before it really catches up with them. The Raptors could blink but with Kawhi as the star, I think they'll be steady enough and aggressive enough to make the most of the Warrior wobbles. This season will be remembered for Giannis's breakout and the Warriors' going bust.
Bucks over Pistons in 4
Raptors over Magic in 4
Sixers over Nets in 5
Celtics over Pacers in 7
Pistons without Blake Griffin...no way they win even a single game.
Raptors were my pre-season pick (and I'm sticking with 'em). Magic had a nice season, it ends here.
Last year's playoff performance by the Sixers showed they weren't ready to be here but they've thickened the roster (sorta) and I think the Nets have overachieved to get this far. Sixers should breeze.
Okay, here it is: if the Celtics are gonna be as good as they ought to be, then smacking an Oladipo-less Pacer squad should be a given; but they're not there and the Pacers have played really well without him. I still like the Celtics to take it but the Pacers will sweat them.
Bucks over Celtics in 5
Raptors over Sixers in 5
The Celtics still have Kyrie and that's good enough to keep the Celtics competitive even against the best team in the league. But the Bucks remember last year's smack down and they're better in every way this year, I like the Bucks to start strong, win one in Boston and finish it quick.
The Raptors are too disciplined, too deep, too good and the Sixers are still too green and even with all their star power, who's the guy that steps up? The Raptors are too good.
Raptors over Bucks in 7
This is when the playoffs begin. The Bucks have grown by leaps and bounds this year while the Raptors are still strangely the same team they've been for a few years now (despite some big shakeups in the last 12 months). But the Raptors are free of Lebron and it is their time to rule the roost. I like the Bucks, I love Giannis, they've got a solid supporting cast and the Coach of the Year, but I don't think they win Game Seven.
West
Warriors over Clippers in 4
Nuggets over Spurs in 6
Blazers over Thunder in 7
Rockets over Jazz in 5
I like what the Clippers did this year and the Warriors often start slow in the post-season, so the Clippers got a shot, right? Nah. The Clippers have a rookie PG and a bunch of dudes that have never been here before (and they already have an eye toward the off-season); the Warriors are looking at Houston in Round Two, they need to get going and I think they will.
The Spurs have impressed me with their ability to stay above water but the Nuggets' home court advantage and depth are just too much to overcome. I like the Nuggets to come in ready to play.
The Thunder are the squad no one wants to play in the playoffs, the Blazers are the team that underachieve every year late, so it seems like the Thunder are the obvious favorite, right? I'm not seeing it. I kinda love the Blazers as the underdog and I'm weary of the Thunder with more swagger than they deserve (and they could really use Roberson in a series like this). I'll take the Blazers to stare down the mighty Thunder and move on.
The Rockets blew their chance to get the #2 seed but I hardly think that matters, they'll be tough to beat anywhere, any time. I like the Jazz but I kinda liked them better last year...when they got smoked by the Rockets in the playoffs. I just don't see the upside for the Jazz here, I gotta go with the Rockets all the way.
Warriors over Rockets in 7
Blazers over Nuggets in 6
Here's where the playoffs begin! Warriors-Rockets is gonna be a war...I dunno, I'll take the Warriors in Game Seven.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the bracket is the up-and-coming Nuggets with the deep bench, the wily coach, the eye-of-the-storm star in Jokic to keep it all together and the Blazers are the team that disappoints every year. I think the Blazers have more moxy and they know who they are and they'll poke the newcomers in the eye. I like the Blazers.
Warriors over Blazers in 7
The Warriors, after beating the feared Rockets, will think they've got it all taken care of. But the Blazers will be high on house money, feeling themselves and will push the Warriors to the edge. I like the Warriors to get it done when the chips are down, but they'll have to work harder than they've worked in a while.
Finals
Raptors over Warriors in 7
This was my pre-season pick and I'm sticking with it. The Warriors have splintered but they're so damned talented, they'll get all the way to the finish line before it really catches up with them. The Raptors could blink but with Kawhi as the star, I think they'll be steady enough and aggressive enough to make the most of the Warrior wobbles. This season will be remembered for Giannis's breakout and the Warriors' going bust.
Friday, April 12, 2019
2018-19 Champions League Quarterfinals (1st Leg)
Tottenham 1-0 Manchester City
Oof, Man City blew a big opportunity early: handball in the box--looked harmless live but clear penalty on the replay--but the PK was saved! Would've been a totally different game if Man City converts that not even five minutes in. I generally thought Man City was the more dangerous side in the 1st half. But it was Tottenham that took the lead in the 2nd half: dude looked offside to me, then the ball looked out of bounds to me, but he was able to bring it back and sneak it past the keeper, all of which survived the replay. Pretty even all in all but Tottenham made the big play and made it hold up. Again, though, if Man City made that PK, their chances throughout the game would've become all the more dangerous. Man City has a good chance of pulling this out back home but for now Tottenham is in control.
Liverpool 2-0 Porto
Liverpool's attack was just too much for Porto. Liverpool scored an early goal (a deflection off the defender that froze the keeper) and then another before half (combination passing sliced and diced the Porto back line). The 2nd half was a bit of a snooze. Porto had some chances, they weren't dead out there, but Liverpool's attack controlled the game and I suspect will control the return match, too. Liverpool looks good to move on.
Ajax 1-1 Juventus
Even contest, thought Ajax had better chances but Juventus was dangerous, too. Juve took the lead before halftime on a beautiful header by Ronaldo (how does he get so wide open in front of the goal like that? Reminds me of how Kobe always managed to get free right under the basket for easy put backs). But Ajax got it back early in the 2nd: defender saved a ball that he easily could've let go out of bounds, striker snatches it from him, then drills one in traffic (keeper was flat footed, kinda looked like he was ball-watching, but that shot came out a step quicker than he thought it would, I reckon). I generally thought Ajax was the better side, had better chances, but they really could've used another goal. Gotta favor Juventus going back home, though I think the sides are fairly equal and should make for the most exciting 2nd leg.
Manchester United 0-1 Barcelona
You just can't let Messi get the ball in front of the goal like that if you want to win. Even taking the ball away from goal, he finds Suarez on the other side for the easy strike; thought the late off-side call made this more dramatic than it needed to be, glad to see the replay cleared up the confusion (and kinda cheesy to call that an own-goal, it was going in anyway). Barca pretty well controlled the entire game, Man U is the 8th best team in these quarterfinals and they have not gotten off to a good start. Gotta liked Barca to pile it on back home.
Oof, Man City blew a big opportunity early: handball in the box--looked harmless live but clear penalty on the replay--but the PK was saved! Would've been a totally different game if Man City converts that not even five minutes in. I generally thought Man City was the more dangerous side in the 1st half. But it was Tottenham that took the lead in the 2nd half: dude looked offside to me, then the ball looked out of bounds to me, but he was able to bring it back and sneak it past the keeper, all of which survived the replay. Pretty even all in all but Tottenham made the big play and made it hold up. Again, though, if Man City made that PK, their chances throughout the game would've become all the more dangerous. Man City has a good chance of pulling this out back home but for now Tottenham is in control.
Liverpool 2-0 Porto
Liverpool's attack was just too much for Porto. Liverpool scored an early goal (a deflection off the defender that froze the keeper) and then another before half (combination passing sliced and diced the Porto back line). The 2nd half was a bit of a snooze. Porto had some chances, they weren't dead out there, but Liverpool's attack controlled the game and I suspect will control the return match, too. Liverpool looks good to move on.
Ajax 1-1 Juventus
Even contest, thought Ajax had better chances but Juventus was dangerous, too. Juve took the lead before halftime on a beautiful header by Ronaldo (how does he get so wide open in front of the goal like that? Reminds me of how Kobe always managed to get free right under the basket for easy put backs). But Ajax got it back early in the 2nd: defender saved a ball that he easily could've let go out of bounds, striker snatches it from him, then drills one in traffic (keeper was flat footed, kinda looked like he was ball-watching, but that shot came out a step quicker than he thought it would, I reckon). I generally thought Ajax was the better side, had better chances, but they really could've used another goal. Gotta favor Juventus going back home, though I think the sides are fairly equal and should make for the most exciting 2nd leg.
Manchester United 0-1 Barcelona
You just can't let Messi get the ball in front of the goal like that if you want to win. Even taking the ball away from goal, he finds Suarez on the other side for the easy strike; thought the late off-side call made this more dramatic than it needed to be, glad to see the replay cleared up the confusion (and kinda cheesy to call that an own-goal, it was going in anyway). Barca pretty well controlled the entire game, Man U is the 8th best team in these quarterfinals and they have not gotten off to a good start. Gotta liked Barca to pile it on back home.
2018-19 NBA Bric-a-Brac (End of regular season)
Firings
Dave Joerger (Kings)
Kind of a surprise and yet not really. The rumors were swirling early in the season that Joerger and GM Valde Divac were not on the same page. Then the Kings vastly over performed throughout the year and it felt like Joerger was in a good place--he'll get Coach of the Year votes. But...I guess not. The power struggle was won by Divac and a coach who's actually two pretty good runs with two not very good squads is looking for a new job (hmmmm....Wolves?).
JB Bickerstaff (Grizzlies)
Just days after the dreaded 'vote of confidence', Bickerstaff was let go amidst an overhaul in the Grizzlies front office. Grizzlies were not built to have a good season and trading away Marc Gasol was the signal of changes a'coming. (They got any interest in bringing back Dave Joerger?) Bickerstaff showed enough to warrant a run on the asst. coach treadmill, I fully expect he'll be employed somewhere next year.
Larry Drew (Cavs)
Not a firing exactly, but his extended audition for the job is officially over. Reports suggest he didn't really want the job anyway. Drew is a respected veteran, wouldn't be surprised to see him on the Spurs bench next year or the Warriors.
GM Chris Wallace (Grizzlies)
Seemed like he thought he was in charge, so the owner showed up and reminded him...nope, you are not. Wallace was demoted, meaning he's still stuck with an organization that clearly no longer wants him (which is...well, professionally speaking, that's about the worst thing possible, isn't it?). So who will run the new look Grizzlies? (How about a Jeff and Stan Van Gundy combo?)
Magic Johnson (Lakers), President of Basketball Operations
Fired himself out of nowhere at a rambling bizarre press conference that he apparently did without notifying the organization. Magic never seemed to put forth the effort needed to be a for-real NBA GM and since he was never the man for this job, I kinda wonder how this effects his standing with the team going forward. Obviously he's a Laker legend, it'd be a shame if that gets tarnished. Hiring Magic for this kind of position was a bad move from the start, hard to see where they go from here. (And do GM Rob Pelinka and Coach Luke Walton get run out, as well?)
Hirings/Extensions
GM Vlade Divac (Kings)
Got the juice that allowed him to put a dagger in the back of Coach Joerger. He's drafted well and made some savvy trades over the last coupla years, I don't understand the friction with Joerger (who looked like he did a great job) but Divac has put together a pretty good young squad. (And apparently has his eye on Luke Walton, if he gets bounced from the Lakers)
GM James Jones (Suns)
Was the interim GM, but no longer. Now the job is his. (Beware what you wish for...) He's got Devin Booker signed long term and a pack of interesting talent but he's also got the worst owner in the league and a growing track record of sucking.
Late season Waivings
Tahjere McCall (Nets), Terrence Jones (Rockets), Christian Wood (Bucks), Tyler Zeller (Hawks), Jason Smith (Pelicans), Andre Ingram (Lakers), BJ Johnson (Hawks), Jawun Evans (Suns), Trevon Duval (Bucks), Eric Moreland (Raptors), Charles Cooke (Heat), Justin Patton (Sixers), Greg Monroe (Celtics), Dusty Hannahs (Grizzlies), Isaiah Briscoe (Magic), Wesley Johnson (Wizards), Rodey McGruder (Heat), Luc Mbah-a-Moute (Clippers)
Most all of these guys were signed to 10-day contracts that were not renewed when the contract expired.
A coupla exceptions:
Patton (Sixers). He was a throw-in in the deal that brought Jimmy Butler over from the Wolves (fun fact: he was a throw-in in the deal that took Butler to the Wolves to begin with), a 1st rd draft pick that has been injured since before he arrived in the league. Some folks would see that as a bad sign but injured rookies is the Sixers' way, so I guess they just don't see any upside in him. Kinda wonder if we'll ever get to see him beyond the three games he played this year.
Briscoe (Magic). He played a lot for the Magic this year, which surprised me as I thought Briscoe was a guy fated to live in Europe. He's had some injury troubles, had season-ending surgery in March, they may well want him back for Summer League and/or next season. He's a reliable 2nd string combo guard, the kinda guy who's not bad at a wide range of things while not really excelling at anything.
Johnson (Wizards). Wily vet came over from the Clippers but never got going with the Wizards. Hard to tell what direction the Wizards are going in for next year but I guess Johnson was not part of their plans. Johnson is not a star by any means but a reliable enough vet to be valuable to a good team at the right price (like, say, the Grizzlies).
McGruder (Heat) and Mbah-a-Moute (Clippers). I believe these two are intertwined: Luc was injured and McGruder was added to the Clipper's post-season roster.
Signings
(for the rest of the season)
Andrew Bogut (Warriors)
Yeah! Weird to say it but I've missed him on the Warriors. They've come so far in the last few years that it's hard to remember that Bogut was the original cornerstone star this dynasty was built on. He's been in Australia all year, should be in good enough shape to give 10-12 minutes per game going forward. I think this is a good pick up.
Danuel House (Rockets)
House has actually looked pretty good in limited minutes this season, if he gets some shine time in the post-season, they'll be happy to have him back next season.
Cam Reynolds (Wolves)
I don't know who this is.
Tim Frazier (Bucks)
Considering the Bucks will be without Mirotic and Divincenzo, Frazier could get see some playing time in the playoffs.
Jimmer Fredette (Suns)
Didn't exactly tear it up in his brief time in Phoenix, but looks like he'll be back next year.
Chris Chiozza (Rockets)
I don't know who this is.
Jawun Evans (Thunder)
Solid 2nd string PG, not sure the Thunder need him. But he'll be on a roster next year, I'm sure.
Jodie Meeks (Raptors)
Can't imagine Meeks will get much playing time going forward, but the Raptors do rely on a deep bench and I think that will maintain for at least the first coupla rounds of the playoffs, so we might see a little bit of Meeks.
Trevon Duval (Rockets)
Nice pickup! Doubt he'll play this post-season but they'll put him to work next year.
Christian Wood (Pelicans)
I always liked Wood but he's bounced around so much I kinda doubt he'll stick here. This is likely just a late season roster manipulation.
Walter Lemon Jr (Bulls)
Had some nice moments in his brief time in Chicago. I can see him coming back next year.
Greg Monroe (Sixers)
Some nice down-low depth for the playoffs, should play some early on but I'd be kinda surprised to see him on the Sixers next season.
Michael Carter-Williams (Magic)
I wonder if this is just a warm body to fill in for Isaiah Briscoe or if they think they can really use MCW.
Donatas Motiejunas (Spurs)
Shweet! I always loved Motiejunas, deep down I always knew he'd get to the Spurs eventually. I doubt we'll see much of him, likely just an emergency bench guy, but I'd like to see him back there next year.
Tyler Zeller (Grizzlies)
Hey, man, everyone can use a Zeller. I suspect this is just a roster manipulation, only 50/50 whether he'll be back there next year.
(multi-year deal)
Deonte Burton (Thunder)
Guess we'll see him in a Thunder uni next year.
Season Ending Injuries
(playoff teams)
Donte Divincenzo (Bucks) out with heel injury
Nikola Mirotic (Bucks) out with a thumb injury
Hard to imagine that the Bucks' fate would've revolved around Mirotic and/or Divincezno, but those guys knock down shots and guys like that are always handy have.
Isiah Briscoe (Magic) out after knee surgery
Derrick Rose (Wolves) out with elbow injury
Jeff Teague (Wolves) out with foot injury
Kelly Oubre (Suns) out with thumb injury
CJ Miles (Grizzlies) out with foot injury
Tim Hardaway Jr (Mavs) out with leg injury
Robert Covington (Wolves) out with knee injury
Chandler Hutchinson (Bulls) out with toe injury
Miles Plumlee (Hawks) out after knee surgery
Lauri Markanen (Bulls) out with (fatigue?)
Josh Hart (Lakers) out after knee surgery
Frank Nkiliina (Knicks) out with a groin injury
Lebron James (Lakers) out with a groin injury
Devin Booker (Suns) out with ankle sprain
Ingram's blood clots are scary and worth keeping an eye on. But that perversely guarantees he'll be with the Lakers for the foreseeable future.
Retiring
Al Jefferson
Ahhhh, Big Al. Man, his bust out year with the 2013-14 Hornets briefly made me a Hornets fan (remember? Josh McRoberts was good that year...ahh, good times...). He bummed around the league for a lot of years, some of them were pretty good, most of them were kinda forgettable. But he was kinda the last of the old timey big men: back to the basket, beastly down low, didn't run the floor worth a shit, only looked to pass out of a double team, probably smoked cigarettes at halftime. Gonna miss you, Big Al.
Khris Humphries
Most famous for being played out like a chump by one of those Kardashians, Humphries was actually a really great rebounder in his day. So-so defender, so-so scoring skills but really had a nose for the ball. The kind of player that could've bee a legit star in the right system.
Dirk Nowtizki (Mavs)
Early reports are that he passed on joining the TNT crew--good for him! I hope for his sake that he avoids the media and sticks with the Mavs. He's obviously juiced in for life with Cuban and the Mavs organization, he can hang around Dallas and be a Metroplex legend for the rest of his life. Not a bad way to go. One of the best I ever saw, in his prime he was an unstoppable scorer and he can still score...but his defense has just gotten too awful for him to keep going. First ballot Hall of Famer.
Dwyane Wade (Heat)
Personally, I was never a Wade fan, always found his game rather boring and the cult of personality surrounding him inelegant. But he's clearly a Hall of Famer, won championships and he's a Miami mafia lifer. Even went out scoring 30 on Udonis Haslem night.
Udonis Haslem (Heat)
Dude, I was ready for him to retire before Lebron even arrived in Miami! Can't believe he lasted this long but good for him. Miami mafia for life, he got rings and made waaaaaaaay more money than he really deserved for playing basketball.
NCAA Final
Texas Tech 77-85 (OT) Virginia
My initial note: 1 minute into the game: each team is0/1 from the field with no turnovers, no offensive rebounds and no fouls. Yeah, 39 more of those and we'll have the first scoreless draw in the history of the NCAA tournament. At the first TV timeout (15:51): the score was 3-2. Yeah, got a pitcher's dual on our hands.
That said, both teams got frisky on offense before halftime, something about playing their doppelgangers inspired each squad to get adventurous with the ball. What looked destined to be a low-scoring contest turned into a frenzied free-for-all by the end of regulation. Fun game. But in OT, Tech ran out of gas and Virginia claimed their first title. Good for them. Losing to a #16 seed last year and becoming the champ this year is a hell of a turnaround.
Dave Joerger (Kings)
Kind of a surprise and yet not really. The rumors were swirling early in the season that Joerger and GM Valde Divac were not on the same page. Then the Kings vastly over performed throughout the year and it felt like Joerger was in a good place--he'll get Coach of the Year votes. But...I guess not. The power struggle was won by Divac and a coach who's actually two pretty good runs with two not very good squads is looking for a new job (hmmmm....Wolves?).
JB Bickerstaff (Grizzlies)
Just days after the dreaded 'vote of confidence', Bickerstaff was let go amidst an overhaul in the Grizzlies front office. Grizzlies were not built to have a good season and trading away Marc Gasol was the signal of changes a'coming. (They got any interest in bringing back Dave Joerger?) Bickerstaff showed enough to warrant a run on the asst. coach treadmill, I fully expect he'll be employed somewhere next year.
Larry Drew (Cavs)
Not a firing exactly, but his extended audition for the job is officially over. Reports suggest he didn't really want the job anyway. Drew is a respected veteran, wouldn't be surprised to see him on the Spurs bench next year or the Warriors.
GM Chris Wallace (Grizzlies)
Seemed like he thought he was in charge, so the owner showed up and reminded him...nope, you are not. Wallace was demoted, meaning he's still stuck with an organization that clearly no longer wants him (which is...well, professionally speaking, that's about the worst thing possible, isn't it?). So who will run the new look Grizzlies? (How about a Jeff and Stan Van Gundy combo?)
Magic Johnson (Lakers), President of Basketball Operations
Fired himself out of nowhere at a rambling bizarre press conference that he apparently did without notifying the organization. Magic never seemed to put forth the effort needed to be a for-real NBA GM and since he was never the man for this job, I kinda wonder how this effects his standing with the team going forward. Obviously he's a Laker legend, it'd be a shame if that gets tarnished. Hiring Magic for this kind of position was a bad move from the start, hard to see where they go from here. (And do GM Rob Pelinka and Coach Luke Walton get run out, as well?)
Hirings/Extensions
GM Vlade Divac (Kings)
Got the juice that allowed him to put a dagger in the back of Coach Joerger. He's drafted well and made some savvy trades over the last coupla years, I don't understand the friction with Joerger (who looked like he did a great job) but Divac has put together a pretty good young squad. (And apparently has his eye on Luke Walton, if he gets bounced from the Lakers)
GM James Jones (Suns)
Was the interim GM, but no longer. Now the job is his. (Beware what you wish for...) He's got Devin Booker signed long term and a pack of interesting talent but he's also got the worst owner in the league and a growing track record of sucking.
Late season Waivings
Tahjere McCall (Nets), Terrence Jones (Rockets), Christian Wood (Bucks), Tyler Zeller (Hawks), Jason Smith (Pelicans), Andre Ingram (Lakers), BJ Johnson (Hawks), Jawun Evans (Suns), Trevon Duval (Bucks), Eric Moreland (Raptors), Charles Cooke (Heat), Justin Patton (Sixers), Greg Monroe (Celtics), Dusty Hannahs (Grizzlies), Isaiah Briscoe (Magic), Wesley Johnson (Wizards), Rodey McGruder (Heat), Luc Mbah-a-Moute (Clippers)
Most all of these guys were signed to 10-day contracts that were not renewed when the contract expired.
A coupla exceptions:
Patton (Sixers). He was a throw-in in the deal that brought Jimmy Butler over from the Wolves (fun fact: he was a throw-in in the deal that took Butler to the Wolves to begin with), a 1st rd draft pick that has been injured since before he arrived in the league. Some folks would see that as a bad sign but injured rookies is the Sixers' way, so I guess they just don't see any upside in him. Kinda wonder if we'll ever get to see him beyond the three games he played this year.
Briscoe (Magic). He played a lot for the Magic this year, which surprised me as I thought Briscoe was a guy fated to live in Europe. He's had some injury troubles, had season-ending surgery in March, they may well want him back for Summer League and/or next season. He's a reliable 2nd string combo guard, the kinda guy who's not bad at a wide range of things while not really excelling at anything.
Johnson (Wizards). Wily vet came over from the Clippers but never got going with the Wizards. Hard to tell what direction the Wizards are going in for next year but I guess Johnson was not part of their plans. Johnson is not a star by any means but a reliable enough vet to be valuable to a good team at the right price (like, say, the Grizzlies).
McGruder (Heat) and Mbah-a-Moute (Clippers). I believe these two are intertwined: Luc was injured and McGruder was added to the Clipper's post-season roster.
Signings
(for the rest of the season)
Andrew Bogut (Warriors)
Yeah! Weird to say it but I've missed him on the Warriors. They've come so far in the last few years that it's hard to remember that Bogut was the original cornerstone star this dynasty was built on. He's been in Australia all year, should be in good enough shape to give 10-12 minutes per game going forward. I think this is a good pick up.
Danuel House (Rockets)
House has actually looked pretty good in limited minutes this season, if he gets some shine time in the post-season, they'll be happy to have him back next season.
Cam Reynolds (Wolves)
I don't know who this is.
Tim Frazier (Bucks)
Considering the Bucks will be without Mirotic and Divincenzo, Frazier could get see some playing time in the playoffs.
Jimmer Fredette (Suns)
Didn't exactly tear it up in his brief time in Phoenix, but looks like he'll be back next year.
Chris Chiozza (Rockets)
I don't know who this is.
Jawun Evans (Thunder)
Solid 2nd string PG, not sure the Thunder need him. But he'll be on a roster next year, I'm sure.
Jodie Meeks (Raptors)
Can't imagine Meeks will get much playing time going forward, but the Raptors do rely on a deep bench and I think that will maintain for at least the first coupla rounds of the playoffs, so we might see a little bit of Meeks.
Trevon Duval (Rockets)
Nice pickup! Doubt he'll play this post-season but they'll put him to work next year.
Christian Wood (Pelicans)
I always liked Wood but he's bounced around so much I kinda doubt he'll stick here. This is likely just a late season roster manipulation.
Walter Lemon Jr (Bulls)
Had some nice moments in his brief time in Chicago. I can see him coming back next year.
Greg Monroe (Sixers)
Some nice down-low depth for the playoffs, should play some early on but I'd be kinda surprised to see him on the Sixers next season.
Michael Carter-Williams (Magic)
I wonder if this is just a warm body to fill in for Isaiah Briscoe or if they think they can really use MCW.
Donatas Motiejunas (Spurs)
Shweet! I always loved Motiejunas, deep down I always knew he'd get to the Spurs eventually. I doubt we'll see much of him, likely just an emergency bench guy, but I'd like to see him back there next year.
Tyler Zeller (Grizzlies)
Hey, man, everyone can use a Zeller. I suspect this is just a roster manipulation, only 50/50 whether he'll be back there next year.
(multi-year deal)
Deonte Burton (Thunder)
Guess we'll see him in a Thunder uni next year.
Season Ending Injuries
(playoff teams)
Donte Divincenzo (Bucks) out with heel injury
Nikola Mirotic (Bucks) out with a thumb injury
Jusuf Nurkic (Blazers) out with a broken leg
Dante Exam (Jazz) out after knee surgery
Luc Mbah a Moute (Clippers) out after knee surgery
Patrick McCaw (Raptors) out with a thumb injury
James Ennis (Sixers) out with bruised quad
Allen Crabbe (Nets) out after knee surgery
Allen Crabbe (Nets) out after knee surgery
Andre Roberson (Thunder) ruled out for a return from knee surgery
Hard to imagine that the Bucks' fate would've revolved around Mirotic and/or Divincezno, but those guys knock down shots and guys like that are always handy have.
(non-playoff teams)
Jrue Holiday (Pelicans) out with strain abdominal
Brandon Ingram (Lakers) out with blood clotsIsiah Briscoe (Magic) out after knee surgery
Derrick Rose (Wolves) out with elbow injury
Jeff Teague (Wolves) out with foot injury
Kelly Oubre (Suns) out with thumb injury
CJ Miles (Grizzlies) out with foot injury
Tim Hardaway Jr (Mavs) out with leg injury
Robert Covington (Wolves) out with knee injury
Chandler Hutchinson (Bulls) out with toe injury
Miles Plumlee (Hawks) out after knee surgery
Lauri Markanen (Bulls) out with (fatigue?)
Josh Hart (Lakers) out after knee surgery
Frank Nkiliina (Knicks) out with a groin injury
Lebron James (Lakers) out with a groin injury
Devin Booker (Suns) out with ankle sprain
Ingram's blood clots are scary and worth keeping an eye on. But that perversely guarantees he'll be with the Lakers for the foreseeable future.
Retiring
Al Jefferson
Ahhhh, Big Al. Man, his bust out year with the 2013-14 Hornets briefly made me a Hornets fan (remember? Josh McRoberts was good that year...ahh, good times...). He bummed around the league for a lot of years, some of them were pretty good, most of them were kinda forgettable. But he was kinda the last of the old timey big men: back to the basket, beastly down low, didn't run the floor worth a shit, only looked to pass out of a double team, probably smoked cigarettes at halftime. Gonna miss you, Big Al.
Khris Humphries
Most famous for being played out like a chump by one of those Kardashians, Humphries was actually a really great rebounder in his day. So-so defender, so-so scoring skills but really had a nose for the ball. The kind of player that could've bee a legit star in the right system.
Dirk Nowtizki (Mavs)
Early reports are that he passed on joining the TNT crew--good for him! I hope for his sake that he avoids the media and sticks with the Mavs. He's obviously juiced in for life with Cuban and the Mavs organization, he can hang around Dallas and be a Metroplex legend for the rest of his life. Not a bad way to go. One of the best I ever saw, in his prime he was an unstoppable scorer and he can still score...but his defense has just gotten too awful for him to keep going. First ballot Hall of Famer.
Dwyane Wade (Heat)
Personally, I was never a Wade fan, always found his game rather boring and the cult of personality surrounding him inelegant. But he's clearly a Hall of Famer, won championships and he's a Miami mafia lifer. Even went out scoring 30 on Udonis Haslem night.
Udonis Haslem (Heat)
Dude, I was ready for him to retire before Lebron even arrived in Miami! Can't believe he lasted this long but good for him. Miami mafia for life, he got rings and made waaaaaaaay more money than he really deserved for playing basketball.
NCAA Final
Texas Tech 77-85 (OT) Virginia
My initial note: 1 minute into the game: each team is0/1 from the field with no turnovers, no offensive rebounds and no fouls. Yeah, 39 more of those and we'll have the first scoreless draw in the history of the NCAA tournament. At the first TV timeout (15:51): the score was 3-2. Yeah, got a pitcher's dual on our hands.
That said, both teams got frisky on offense before halftime, something about playing their doppelgangers inspired each squad to get adventurous with the ball. What looked destined to be a low-scoring contest turned into a frenzied free-for-all by the end of regulation. Fun game. But in OT, Tech ran out of gas and Virginia claimed their first title. Good for them. Losing to a #16 seed last year and becoming the champ this year is a hell of a turnaround.
Monday, April 8, 2019
2018-19 NCAA Final
Auburn 62-63 Virginia
Wow, what a game! For the record: I saw the double dribble live! I was yelling at the TV and kinda surprised the announcers didn't say anything (thought it felt like Grant Hill went notably silent there). And: yes, that was a foul of the 3-pointer at the end. But those are just details on a pretty crazy final 5 minutes of action. UVA built up a 10 point lead at the final TV timeout, felt like they were gonna finish it off. Suddenly Auburn starts hitting 3's and then both teams are wildly fouling each other late to stop the clock--but there were so few fouls committed that that strategy seemed to take forever! Amazing roller coaster of a game, Auburn played their guts out and it's a damn shame they didn't get a better result but UVA did the little things down the stretch to take it.
Texas Tech 61-51 Michigan State
Okay, I'm in on Tech, they are for real. I knew they were good but the way they were winning in this tourney was clouding my judgement. But they thoroughly controlled the 2nd half of this game, shot well enough to spook the Spartans and kept Cassius Winston off balance throughout. State had their chances but they just never got hot enough from outside to get back in it. Great W for Tech, they are worthy of the title.
Final:
Texas Tech - Virginia (-1) (o/u 118)
Real b-ball fans will be enthused by this matchup--two virtually identical squads bashing into each other--but the casual fan will probably be pretty bummed by this contest. These two are such great defensive squads that both will control the lane on defense, run down the shot clock and commit no fouls. So the 1st half will fly by (something like 22-20 at the half), then most of the 2nd half will also fly by...until the last five minutes when it becomes a foul contest (like UVA-Auburn), which will drag out the ending forever. If both teams knock down free throws, the score might balloon late, but likely neither of these teams will get past 60 points (I'd take the under and hope both squads turn cold at the line). I'll take UVA to finish it off, solely because going from losing to a #16 seed and then winning the championship is as great a redemption story as sports could possibly produce; but Tech is playing as good as UVA right now, so this could go either way. This is as closely matched a combination of teams in a final as I can think of in recent memory. I expect this to be close throughout and be a nail biter right down to the wire and I don't see much scoring happening. I'll take UVA and the under.
Wow, what a game! For the record: I saw the double dribble live! I was yelling at the TV and kinda surprised the announcers didn't say anything (thought it felt like Grant Hill went notably silent there). And: yes, that was a foul of the 3-pointer at the end. But those are just details on a pretty crazy final 5 minutes of action. UVA built up a 10 point lead at the final TV timeout, felt like they were gonna finish it off. Suddenly Auburn starts hitting 3's and then both teams are wildly fouling each other late to stop the clock--but there were so few fouls committed that that strategy seemed to take forever! Amazing roller coaster of a game, Auburn played their guts out and it's a damn shame they didn't get a better result but UVA did the little things down the stretch to take it.
Texas Tech 61-51 Michigan State
Okay, I'm in on Tech, they are for real. I knew they were good but the way they were winning in this tourney was clouding my judgement. But they thoroughly controlled the 2nd half of this game, shot well enough to spook the Spartans and kept Cassius Winston off balance throughout. State had their chances but they just never got hot enough from outside to get back in it. Great W for Tech, they are worthy of the title.
Final:
Texas Tech - Virginia (-1) (o/u 118)
Real b-ball fans will be enthused by this matchup--two virtually identical squads bashing into each other--but the casual fan will probably be pretty bummed by this contest. These two are such great defensive squads that both will control the lane on defense, run down the shot clock and commit no fouls. So the 1st half will fly by (something like 22-20 at the half), then most of the 2nd half will also fly by...until the last five minutes when it becomes a foul contest (like UVA-Auburn), which will drag out the ending forever. If both teams knock down free throws, the score might balloon late, but likely neither of these teams will get past 60 points (I'd take the under and hope both squads turn cold at the line). I'll take UVA to finish it off, solely because going from losing to a #16 seed and then winning the championship is as great a redemption story as sports could possibly produce; but Tech is playing as good as UVA right now, so this could go either way. This is as closely matched a combination of teams in a final as I can think of in recent memory. I expect this to be close throughout and be a nail biter right down to the wire and I don't see much scoring happening. I'll take UVA and the under.
Saturday, April 6, 2019
2018-19 NCAA Final Four
Texas Tech 75-69 Gonzaga
Tech plays some good D, they're sneaky good with the ball and when they're hitting 3's, they're pretty goddamn good. That said, I still thought this was Gonzaga's L more than Tech's W. Gonzaga's offense just spun in circles throughout the 2nd half after a pretty good opening. I think it was less about Tech's defense, which was fine, and more about Tech's offense being able to keep pace in a way that caught the Zags off guard. Gonzaga should've won this game, they were the better team but their offense fell off and ground to a halt right as Tech made its move. Tech moves on, but again: they caught Michigan unable to knock down shots and then Gonzaga unable to put together a consistent game, so is Tech really this good or are they just catching bad nights from superior teams? Tech certainly doesn't suck, they deserve to be here, but its still hard to tell how good they really are and if they're really capable of giving Michigan State a game. We'll see.
Purdue 75-80 (OT) Virginia
Good game! Purdue's Carsen Edwards was money all night and he alone kept Purdue's offense afloat in this game, where Virginia shot well but didn't exactly play their best defense. Back and forth action, both teams raining 3's, felt like Purdue was gonna close it out, but UVA tied it up late on a full court pass and amazing finish (wow! That pass and finish should become one of the iconic images of the tourney for years to come, especially if UVA wins it all). In OT, Purdue kinda ran out of gas and Virginia pounced on their chance. Good W for Virginia, gotta feel bad for Purdue who had this one in their grasp.
Auburn 77-71 (OT) Kentucky
As a Cats fan this one was frustrating. If UK makes their free throws, they win this game easily. Auburn was already deep in foul trouble before halftime, felt like the opportunity was there for UK to exploit that with their size down low, methodically send all of Auburn's players to the bench, make free throws and salt this game away. But instead Auburn was able to get easy shots in the lane over and over again (how? UK's size advantage was massive) and Kentucky just couldn't figure out how to counter. Auburn's MO all year long has been their 3-point shooting but that's not what won this game for them, here they were more effective at knocking down 15 footers and getting to the foul line. And even as poorly as Kentucky played, they were able to get the game into OT, where they had chances to control the action. Yeah, I know this sounds bitchy but Kentucky really should've won this game and while Auburn played really well, even that was predicated on Kentucky failing to take advantage of their size. (Still don't understand the mock drafts: how are you watching this UK team and thinking that Keldon Johnson has more upside than PJ Washington? Based on what?)
Michigan State 68-67 Duke
Fun game! Duke had been playing with fire all through this tournament to the point where you wondered whether they would eventually get burned or that they were so destined to win it all that it didn't even matter if they played shaky. It was the former. Duke had been leaving the door open and Michigan State was the one that stole it late: nailed the big shots when they had to and kept Zion away from the ball for the last few minutes and that was it. This Duke team was wildly unbalanced, that #1 recruiting class was all by themselves out there and the tourney struggles finally caught up to them. This Michigan State team is not flashy or wildly talented but they're deep and well-disciplined and PG Cassius Winston controls the ball as well as anyone I've seen in this tourney. I think they're the team to beat from here.
Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)
Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)
Same as ever for Auburn: if they're hitting 3's, they can beat anyone; but if they're not, they can lose to anyone. That said, that game plan really only played out against North Carolina: Kansas was not at full strength and frankly Auburn handled them pretty easily and Kentucky was a familiar opponent (those division/conference teams make for anything-can-happens kinda contests) who bungled their chances to put Auburn away. But against UNC, Auburn scored, scored, scored and buried the Tar Heels in a way that could happen again to UVA. And UVA's defense does kinda allow that to happen: they dominate the top of the lane but can be beat over the top from the wings. I think Virginia has enough offense to counter Auburn's scoring and keep from getting buried. I like Virginia to play solid defense, knock down enough perimeter shots to match Auburn's attack and to hit their free throws down the stretch and pull away late. I like Virginia to win and cover.
Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.
Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.
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