2021-22 NBA Finals (Game Two)

Celtics 88-107 Warriors

This was the Draymond game. You could tell early on that Green's mission was to get up under the skin of each and all of the Celtics (especially Al Horford). Draymond's whole shtick is that he talks non-stop throughout games but he (usually) manages to get right to the edge and then pull back without getting thrown out. Rather than being punished by the refs, it seems like they mostly just ignore him, which gives him license to be even worse. The trick for the Celtics: you gotta ignore him the way the refs do, you can't let his chirping stick with you. Well, going forward, anyway, because in this game Draymond got into it with Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and Horford and it felt like he threw each of them off their game. 

I thought the refs would make a difference and they did. Once Draymond established his presence, felt like the Warriors were getting the 50/50 calls and the judgement calls and the Celtics were not. Not that it was a wildly physical game, but it just felt like the refs were subtly shading the Celtics. We'll see if that flips back in Game Three. 

Looking over the box score I was struck how similar the team stats were. Identical on 3-pointers, virtually identical on rebounds, assists, personal fouls. Then the difference jumps out: Warriors got 15 steals to the Celtics' 5 and the Celtics had 18 turnovers to the Warriors' 12. The Celtics in both games have had some seriously errant passing and it killed them in Game Two (almost killed them in Game One). Also, since the Warriors took control of this game so completely in the 3rd quarter (got the lead up to 27 at one point), both teams emptied out their benches (though Jonathon Kuminga still only got 4 minutes), which I really hadn't expected. 

For the Celtics, Jaysun Tatum was back, 28 points (6-9 from 3p), but there is a slight danger to his dominance: the Celtics offense becomes a bit one-note when Tatum is working, whereas in Game One, when Tatum kinda sucked, the onslaught that stole the game for them was a team effort, with big contributions from Horford, Brown, Marcus Smart, and Payton Pritchard. It could be that the little-bit-from-everyone effect might be more useful in this series rather than riding big man Tatum. Ideally, the Celtics will be getting both, but if not then they'll need everyone to contribute. 

For the Warriors, I thought Nemanja Bjelica played well (surprised he only had 11 minutes in box score, really?). Klay Thompson (4-19) still hasn't gotten off yet (though I think he's gonna have a big game in Boston--he might only have one big game in him, but I think he's got at least one) and Andrew Wiggins (4-12) didn't score well either. Looking over the box score, it's kinda hard to see where the points came from. But they piled on to the Celtics in the 3rd.

Also, for the Warriors, they finally got Jordan Poole going and that is significant. It's not that they need Poole to carry them, it's that they need his marginal production to outrun the opponent. Poole is the guy that turns a 4-point lead into a 10-point lead, he turns an 8-point lead into a 15-point lead, etc., and those bursts are crucial to holding off the other team's run (everybody makes a run). 

In Game Three, I expect Brown, Smart and Horford to be big, I'm curious to see if Grant Williams can give Draymond some of his own business, curious to see if/how the refs control the game in general and I think Klay could go off. I would expect Steph Curry to be good and if Poole heats up, the Warriors could win big. But if the refs are more home-friendly and Tatum can just be a reliable contributor rather than the main feature of the offense, I think the Celtics could win big. This is just Game Three, we're all tied up, this series can still be a rout for one team or the other, tonight's match might be an indicator of whether this is a for-real 7-game series or not. 

2021-22 NBA Finals (Game One)

Celtics 120-108 Warriors

Great win for the Celtics! The Warriors were up 87-72 with 1:30 left in the 3rd quarter; from that point on the Celtics outscored the Warriors 48-21 on a combination of wasted possessions by the Warriors and some blistering 3-point shooting by the Celtics (especially Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown). This highlights the one serious flaw the Warriors have long possessed: they don't have a killer instinct. When the Warriors are rolling, they casually outscore everyone they play and don't really have to dig deeper for emotional pleading. But when it gets turned back on them, they flail badly. In this case, I'd point the finger first and foremost at Coach Kerr--hey, man, how about a timeout? The ABC broadcast showed the Warriors huddle when they were down 106-103 and Kerr says, 'we're doing great!' Dude...no you're not! You were up by 15, like, twelve seconds ago and you just got an avalanche dumped on your face! Why didn't Kerr slow down the momentum a little sooner? (The answer, I presume, is that the Warriors just assumed that they'd get hot and take the game back....but they never did)

Another troubling takeaway for the Warriors is that Jordan Poole does not look ready for this. That's a problem because they are going to need him to emerge as a reliable scorer if they plan on outrunning the Celtics. Another problem, is that, outside of Poole, everyone played pretty well and they still got rolled in their own building. Curry was good early on, Porter gave good minutes off the bench and even Iguodala hit some big shots. Draymond's stat line (2-12 from the field) is misleading in the sense that most all of his shots were bailouts at the end of the shot clock, but he needs to be dangerous there if he's going to make a worthwhile contribution.

Also, troubling for the Warriors is that Jaysun Tatum mostly sucked. Celtics fas can talk themselves into the notion that he was still contributing, but his role is to get buckets, not simply 'contribute', so the fact that the Warriors played him out of the game and still lost is not a good sign. Indeed, I'd say only Horford was consistently good for 4 quarters, this should've been a walkover for the Warriors and it went quite horribly wrong in the other direction. 

Is this the end of the road for the Warriors? Well you may recall that in the 2019 playoffs, the Celtics swiped a W in Game One against the Bucks (led by a dominant Al Horford performance, as I recall) but then lost the next four games. We can also look back to the Sixers taking Game One of the 2001 finals before dropping four straight, so the Warriors can still dominate this series.

Can the Celtics do this again? Well, again, considering they didn't get much from Tatum or Grant Williams (not sure he's a fit for this series), floundered badly coming out of halftime and still got a big win, the Celtics are already living on house money for now. Once Tatum gets going (oh, he will), the Celtics should be pretty confident in their scoring. Also, I thought Payton Pritchard had a good game and seems like he's gonna get minutes in this series. (That said, over the course of 7 games, feels like the Celtics aren't as deep and their rotation could get chewed up over the long haul) 

What do the Warriors need to do? They've got to get turnovers from Smart and Brown, they need Jordan Poole to step up and be dominant off the bench and Coach Kerr needs to keep a better eye on the flow of the game. Also, I suspect the refs will make a difference, which would likely favor the Warriors, so knocking down their FT's (something Curry has been strangely shaky on this post-season) is a must. We'll see what Gary Payton II has to offer, too, if he can disrupt the Celtics offense, the scoring onslaught could return to the Warriors side. 

Curious to see where this series goes. If the Celtics can score another shocker tonight, then they can start planning the parade. But the Warriors aren't done, they can play better on both ends--and, again, the refs can be serious game-changers. This series isn't over. All right, I'm ready for ball night!

2021-22 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Warriors over Mavs in 5

Yeah, the Warriors went up 3-0, mailed in Game Four (just as they'd done in Game Five against the Grizzlies in the previous round) and then finished off the series back home. The Mavs were fine, had a good season but just didn't have enough offense to slow the Warriors down. The Mavs seem likely to lose Jalen Brunson, who was an important scorer for them all season, to free agency; I'm sure they'd love to keep him but he's gonna want mad scrill and the Mavs just don't have it. But they do have Tim Hardaway Jr., who missed the entire season to injury, so I kinda expect the Mavs to hit the ground running a little quicker next season and should be in the top 5 in the West next year without much alteration to their roster. The Mavs are good, they go as far as Luka takes them and should be a tough out in next year's playoffs. Do they have moves to make? I don't think so. They'd love to upgrade, they'd love to keep Brunson but they're up against the salary cap (as is most everyone this summer), so I think welcoming back Hardaway is all they've got on the table, which isn't bad. I don't think the Mavs will be better or worse next year, though getting to the conference finals will be a long haul for them, 

Celtic over Heat in 7

I had the Heat in 7 and I was 20 seconds away from being correct, but Jimmy Butler's 3-ball didn't drop and the Celtics escaped. Okay, I may be getting the details wrong but here's what I remember from Game Seven: there were three plays in a row (right?) that stopped the clock and took the air out of the game. Bam Adebayo was called for a foul on Derrick White that was overturned, then Kyle Lowry was called for a block on Jalen Brown that was overturned, then Lowry lost his balance and had to call a weird timeout. All three of those plays were right in a row, right? Anyway, with about 9-10 minutes left in the game, there were several weird breaks in the action and then suddenly the Heat couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. The Celtics pushed the lead back up to 13 and with about 2 minutes to go did that thing that teams do where they're so eager for the game to be over that they just kinda quit playing. Next thing you know, the lead is down to 2 points, Butler gets a steal and with about 20 seconds to go, rises up to take the 3 that would've given them the lead. He missed (*), Celtics get the rebound and escape--ESCAPE!--to the NBA Finals.

Look, the Celtics were the better team, though the Heat had moments. Game Seven was choppy on both sides, the Celtics played better in the 1st quarter, built a nice lead, but otherwise neither team played a complete game. 

The Heat have some moves to make: moving on from Kyle Lowry's big-ass contract is something I'm sure they will look into (who wants him?), they've clearly lost faith in Duncan Robinson (they desperately needed scoring and perimeter D in this series and they still didn't play him!), Victor Oladipo might be an interesting sign-and-trade candidate, they could re-up Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and/or Max Strus (or they could just ride out their current deals), and they'll probably need another scorer (assuming that isn't Oladipo, which I don't think it is). The Heat have a nice core for next season but finishing 1st in the East again doesn't seem likely. They seem like a trade deadline kinda team to me, we'll see.

Championship

Celtics - Warriors

Yeah, I know they b-ball intelligentsia is mixed on this one and I do think this can be interesting match up, but I think the Warriors are vastly better than the Celtics--and I kinda don't understand the people who think otherwise. I like Jaysun Tatum and Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart as much as the next guy, but they are not unstoppable super heroes by any means. They can get hot and ride the momentum and they can just as likely go cold and disappear. I like Robert Williams and Grant Williams, but they've never been here before. I like Al Horford (he was great in Game Seven, would not allow his team to lose!) but he's not enough of a scorer or defensive stopper to make the difference in this series. I like Coach Udoka, but he's never been here before. 

The Warriors are not the classic Warriors, they don't have Durant, I get that. But they're a pretty damn squad and, unlike all those Celtics players, they have been here before. Arguably the most unreliable player on this team is Kevon Looney, who I think is pretty good and is a vastly better player than he was in the 2018 championship (yeah, their crappiest player has played hurt in a championship before! The Celtics don't have anyone like that). The Celtics are vastly--VASTLY--overmatched in this series. Jordan Poole is ready to blow up--and he's not even their 6th man! 

I get that Klay Thompson hasn't been classic Klay much this season, I get that Steph Curry has been good-not-great this post-season, I get that Draymond Green just does not shoot the ball any more. But do you understand that they just won the West in a gentleman's sweep without their best defender, Gary Payton II, who will be back this series. They'll also be getting back Otto Porter, who is better than anything coming off Boston's bench and Andre Iguodala--way past his prime, you say, but still good enough to slow down Horford. Do you think Payton Pritchard will outplay Jonathon Kuminga and/or Moses Moody, because I don't. 

This argument that the Celtics have a tougher road to the championship than the Warriors is not one I agree with: the Celtics got the broken down Nets, the Bucks without Khris Middleton and the Heat, who have no offense beyond Jimmy Butler (and to whom they almost blew a 13-point lead in the final two minutes). Whereas, the Warriors comfortably gave away a game to the broken down Nuggets (you think the KD Nets are wildly better than the Jokic Nuggets? I don't), comfortably gave away a game to the Grizzlies (young but a legit #2 in the West this season) and comfortably gave away a game to the Mavs (perhaps ahead of schedule, but do you think Butler is a better scrorer than Luka right now? I don't). The Warriors have only lost 4 games so far--and 3 of them were giveaways! In the 13 games where the Warriors actually showed up and played, they are 12-1.  

When Jaysun Tatum gets hot, he a serious filler-upper--a Golden State-level filler-upper! But that's really all Boston has to counter the offensive onslaught that the Warriors are bringing. I believe the Warriors can beat the Celtics with Draymond, Looney, half-hearted Steph and full throttle Poole, whereas the Celtics need super human performances from Tatum and Brown and even then they would still need Smart to be perfect and Horford to be better than he's ever been. I love ya, Celtic fans, but I have no idea where your confidence is coming from. (**)

I'll take the Warriors to be 3-0 after Game Three, give away Game Four, then wrap it up in five, just like they've been doing all through the playoffs. Warriors in 5. (Though just to create some drama, I'll say Draymond wins MVP (***))

(*) FWIW, I was totally cool with Butler taking that shot and upon refecltion, I'm still cool with it. That team was going wherever Butler dragged them and if he thought he had the shot, I have no hesitation with him taking it. That said, I also would've been cool with him driving to the basket and getting a bucket to tie the game or going for the hoop-and-harm style 3 (which would've brought down the friggin' house!). This was Butler's team, he was always the guy that was gonna take the shot, I have no problem whatsoever with the shot he took. If it had gone in (I thought it was in), we'd been holding Butler up as a hero (and we'd be lamenting the fact that the Heat have no shot against the Warriors....why do we think the Celtics are beating the Warriors?)

(**) Andrew Wiggins. Didn't even mention him, but he'll be marking Tatum this series. I expect Tatum to outplay Wiggins, I don't expect the rest of the Celtics to outplay the rest of the Warriors. Not even close. 

(***) One last thought experiment to illustrate the difference btw the Warriors and the Celtics. If Jordan Poole turned out to be the best player in this series, I would not be shocked; if Poole turned out to be the 10th best player and the Warriors won anyway, I would not be shocked. The Celtics have nothing on their side that even comes remotely close to that. If Marcus Smart turned out to be the best player in this series, I would be shocked--and I still wouldn't expect the Celtics to win!; if Smart is the 10th best player, there is no way in hell the Celtics could possibly come close to winning. Do you see what I'm saying? The Celtics need Tatum and Brown and Smart to be perfect--and that alone won't be enough! The Warriors have any number of permutations of their lineup that could still win the championship. I just don't see how the Celtics are even close in this series. We'll see.  

2021-22 Pointless NBA Rebuild Idea

Yeah, couldn't help myself...here's the case for the rebuild no one saw coming: 

Nets get Karl-Anthony Towns, Jake Layman; Wolves get Pascal Siakam, Raptors 1st rd pick (#4); Raptors get Kyrie Irving

Nets get Chris Paul (sign & trade); Suns get James Harden

Nets get #7 pick, #14 pick, James Wiseman, Warriors 2023 1st rd pick, Warriors 2027 1st rd pick; Warriors get Kevin Durant

The Nets would shed their high profile talent and end up with: Chris Paul (fresh 3yr deal, I'd say something in the 3yr/$150m range(*)), Karl-Anthony Towns (3yr/$100m left on his contract), James Wiseman (still on rookie contract), #7 (I'd take Davion Mitchell (Baylor)), #14 (I'd aim for Josh Giddey (Australia)) and they'd still have Joe Harris (3yr), Deandre Jordan (2yr), Landry Shamet (expiring), Nicholas Claxton and Alize Johnson.  (Jake Layman gets bought out instantly) And I'd bring back Luwawu and Bruce Brown and--why the hell not?--Blake Griffin. And then they should go get JJ Reddick (run back the Clip show in NYC). They go from a veteran squad (full of grumpy show-offs) to a young squad (led by CP and KAT) over night but it would be much more stable and fun and they'd be building some real basketball culture instead of just being a bunch of media whores. And what's the point of indulging the Kyrie and Harden circus if they're not gonna show up in the playoffs? (**) 

Does this make the Nets more likely to win the 2021-22 championship? Well, I don't suppose it does--though if CP wins this year maybe you can talk yourself into it. But it does make them a more consistent and viable franchise going forward. Will they make any of these moves? Oh, good lord, of course not! They've got three huge stars, which is what we have told ourselves all teams need to win the Championship (of course, they....didn't win the....championship...but you know what I mean). For the Nets, these moves are designed to bolster the franchise for years to come rather than leaving it the hostage of self-absorbed media whores. But, then again, it is NYC--and the 2nd place team in NYC, at that!--all they know is media whores and making themselves available to that probably looks pretty good to the Nets. 

Would the Wolves be better off with Siakam and #4 instead of Towns? Well...no. But how about also sending D'angelo Russell (***) to the Pacers for Myles Turner and TJ Warren (Russell made an Eastern All-Star squad and he's a Big-10 guy from Louisville, is that enough cache for Indiana?). And how about shopping #4 to OKC for #6 and a future pick (of which OKC has a fistful); Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) probably isn't the right fit with Edwards, they may well be better off moving back in the draft and trying to find more assets. Look, this is Edwards' team now and if they can move D'angelo Russell for anything, then at least they'd be fun to watch (and they wouldn't take the blame for Towns' lack of success any more). 

Would the Raptors swap Siakam and #4 for Kyrie Irving? My guess is fuck yeah they would! In a heartbeat! He's not Kawhi but the Raptor supporting cast is still really good and we all still believe in Coach Nurse (right?), I think the Raptors go as far as Kyrie's health carries them. Also, this pushes Van Vleet back into super-sub guy again, which is probably a more realistic fit (he'd be odds on for 6th Man, no?). 

Would the Suns trade CP for Harden? I bet they wouldn't want to but CP has a player option this summer, which I assume he'll decline, and if he'd rather be shipped to NYC then re-up in Phoenix than getting James Harden (Arizona State product) is certainly not a bad deal. Do Harden and Booker fit together? Sure, why not? 

The Warriors would be reunited with Durant, which would be massively expensive in the short term and kinda kills their rebuilding going forward. But unlike Brooklyn, Golden State has had massive success with their veteran lineup and if it costs a gajillion dollars and murders their future prospects, well....what do I care? (I feel like I speak for all Warrior fans when I ask that question)

Yeah, no way any of these moves happen, but wouldn't it be a fascinating curveball if the Nets suddenly went into a garage sale mode? They could if they wanted to.

(*) If I'm Chris Paul (or any aging but still solid badass) I would insist on a declining contract. Pay me big up front and I'll take less on the back side. So CP has a player option for $44.2m this summer in Phoenix. I assume he will opt out with the intention of going for more years. He'll probably want something like $150m over 3 years. In order to stay in Phoenix, he can't decline an option and then sign with the same team for less money and he wouldn't with a new team either, so he'll have to make north of $44.2m next year. Rather than go to $45, $50, $55, say, to hit $150, I think a $55, $55, $40 would be better. If in three years CP is no longer any good, then just give him his paycheck and let him move on because your team's gonna suck anyway. But if he can still play and your team sucks, they he has a better chance of getting to a better team. The declining contract promotes player movement, which isn't for everybody, but for a badass like Chris Paul, the playoffs are where you get the attention, the opportunity and the big big money. CP needn't give his heart to the team, he should give his heart to go deep in the playoffs e'ry year, no matter what team it ends up being with. 

(**) Is anyone in NYC impressed that Kyrie, Harden and Durant lasted a whole extra round longer than Julius Randle and the fightin' Thibodeaus? I doubt it. I'm not and I'm not even from NYC.

(***) How on fuckin' earth is Russell making $30m this season? How...how....does that happen? That dude has never done anything in the NBA and he's mostly been injured....how does he get a $30m deal?

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Pacific Division)

Clippers
Out:
Angel Delgado, Garrett Temple, Wilson Chandler, Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2021 1st rd pick, 2022 1st rd Pick, 2024 1st rd pick, 2026 1st rd pick, (OKC holds 1st rd pick swaps in 2023, 2025),
With SGA and several 1st rd picks out the door, now is the time for the Clippers. There are a lot of nice players there but the new look will absorb these losses without much problem.

Re-signed:
Lou Williams (guaranteed contract through 2021), Ivica Zubac (4yr/$21m), Rodney McGruder (3yr/$15m), Patrick Beverley (3yr/$40m), JaMychel Green (2yr/$9.8m)
A lot of money (and draft picks) out but these are all good players who seem well suited for each other.

In:
Kawhi Leonard (3yr/$103m),  Moe Harkless (trade; 1yr), Mfiondu Kabengele (2yr/$4m), Paul George (3yr/$105m), Patrick Patterson (1yr/$2.3m), Amir Coffey, Terance Mann (4yr/$6.2m), Derrick Walton Jr., Johnathon Motley, Heat 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), rights to Mathias Lessort
Okay...future is here. I like all these moves, I think they'll fit together, too (eventually).


Over/Under (53.5): I'm going under
Yeah, there's a lot of talent in and it seems to mesh. But George is already hurt and you know Kawhi's minutes will be monitored so the anchors of the rotation will appear and disappear throughout the season. Yes, I have the Clippers winning it all but I have them going into the playoffs as the 6th seed. I just don't think the regular season (especially road games and back-to-backs) will be that motivating to them. This team was built for the post-season, slogging through the next six months to get there might bore them.


Lakers
Out:
Lance Stephenson, Mike Muscala, Reggie Bullock, Tyson Chandler, Johnathon Williams,  Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner, 2022 1st rd pick (unprotected), 2022 2nd rd pick, 1st rd pick swap to the Pelicans,
Well, the celebrated youth movement (Ball, Ingram, Hart, Wagner, Bonga) and a boatload of future draft picks have been swapped out for a veteran squad that has more top level talent, though fewer dirty work players. This is the Laker way, it was only a matter of time before they made this choice.

Re-signed:
JaVale McGee (2yr/$8.2m), Kentavius Caldwell-Pope (2yr/$16.6m), Alex Caruso (2yr/%5.5m), Rajon Rondo (2yr/$5.2m), Kyle Kuzma (team picked up option; 2yr)
Obviously Kuzma is a keeper (and since Ball, Ingram, Hart, Clarkson, Randle, Bonga, Wagner and Nance are gone, the only youngun they still have). But the rest? McGee has his moments but you gotta expect fewer and fewer of those. KCP and Rondo are reliable-ish vets and Caruso (the White Mamba!) seems like a real nice guy. Meh.

In:
Danny Green (2yr/$30m), DeMarcus Cousins (1yr/$3.5m), Quinn Cook (2yr/$6m), Jared Dudley (1yr/$2.6m), Troy Daniels (1yr/$2m), Avery Bradley (2yr/$9.8m), Dwight Howard (1yr/$2.6m), Reggie Hearn,
Green is now in charge of taking the blame for everything Lebron wants to deflect (he better study up on Chinese economics, I reckon!). Cousins is already out for the year (another year, another bad injury for Boogie). Dudley has long been overrated, Bradley is on the downside (but could be a useful perimeter defender), and Cook will know his role. Dwight Howard is the intriguing signing here: if he really is ready to play ball then I can see him having a nice year (but wildly better than what Tyson Chandler did last year? Ehh, maybe).

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10
Devontae Cook (1yr), Talen Horton-Tucker (2yr/$2.4m), Kostas Antetokounpo,
If these guys do anything, it'll be a bonus.

Over/Under (50.5): I got the under (but just barely)
I'm going under because I think wherever Lebron goes he brings highs and lows: I fully expect the Lakers to have a few runs where they look unstoppable and other stretches where they look like they'd get bounced in the NCAA tournament--that's just how Lebron teams roll. I think Lebron watches his minutes and throughout the season is selective about his effort. So even though I think Anthony Davis has an MVP season, the talent around him will come and go (better than the Pelicans but not vastly better) with an eye toward the post-season rather than the regular season. I've got them winning 50 games and finishing 5th in the West and while they could be way better than that, I just think they looking to the post-season will be their focus and 50 wins will suit them just fine.



Warriors
Out:
Kevin Durant, Marcus Derrickson, Andrew Bogut, DeMarcus Cousins, Jonas Jerebko, Quinn Cook, Andre Iguodala, Damian Jones, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie, 1st rd pick (top 4 protected), 2020 1st rd picks (top 20 protected), 2024 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, rights to Miye Oni
Wow! That is the core of many championships that just walked out the door. Durant is a Hall of Famer, Cousins is an all-time badass (though beset by injuries), Iguodala is maybe the most underappreciated player of all time, Livingston was a regular 6th man candidate for many years (though he was washed last season), Bogut was the original star in this champioship run (although not a big loss at this point), Cook and Jones and McKinney and Bell were the young core that was gonna grow with the team and even Jerebko had moments where he gave a real spark off the bench. And, oh by the way, Klay Thompson is out for the season. Yipes! That is an amazing amount of talent to lose in one summer--and they've given up a handful of 1st rd picks, too! Jeez, not since the old Florida Marlins back in the 1990s have we seen a team that just seemed to drain out so much skill.


Re-signed:
Klay Thompson (5yr/$189.9m), Kevon Looney (3yr/$15m), Draymond Green (4yr/$99.7m),
Re-signing Klay is a bit bittersweet considering that he'll be out for the year, but it needed to be done, so good deal nonetheless. Looney really became a part of their offense last season and gutted out a gnarly injury through the playoffs, good move to reward him. Signing Draymond now solidifies the Warrior core for the foreseeable future (and makes that light summer 2020 free agent class even lighter), big money that must kinda hurt going into what can only be a down year, but the right move.


In:
Jordan Poole (2yr/$4m), D'Angelo Russell (trade), Alen Smailagic (4yr/$61.m), Eric Paschell (3yr/$4.2m), Omari Spellman (trade), Willie Cauley-Stein (1yr/$2.5m), Glenn Robinson (2yr/$19.m), Alec Burks (1yr/$2.3m), Marquese Chriss (1yr), (rights to Lior Eliyahu), Ky Bowman, Damion Lee
The way last season ended for them (the end of the dynasty) there was pretty much no way that this off-season could be anything other than heartbreaking. Okay, starting at the level of low expectations, I think they did pretty good here. Plucking D'angelo Russell away from the Nets was a good move that preserves some offense (I think he'll be just fine for the Warriors, he'll score and make plays), getting Cauley-Stein and Spellman (two new toys for Draymond to play with) will give them a better ability to transition than the haters will acknowledge, Poole and Paschall were good draft picks and apparently they adore Smailagic and then Burks will give them a little offensive depth off the bench. Obviously this isn't the 5-straight Western Conference champs but considering what they lost, they still have plenty of talent left.

Over/Under (47.5): I'm going under (but just barely)
That o/u seems a little high to me--but only because I would assume betters would be more pessimistic. I've got them winning 46 games and going into the playoffs as the 7th seed, which would be a pretty great season for them with plenty more to look forward to in 2020-21.


Kings
Out:
Frank Mason, Alec Burks, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, Troy Williams, Willie Cauley-Stein, BJ Johnson, Vanja Marinkovic
I'm a big Willie Cauley fan (re: apologist) and I think his absence is going to make more of a difference than the haters realize: I think his transition game created a lot of open shots for Hield, open lanes for Fox and chances to gamble on defense for everyone; I get that WCS is not a stat sheet filler-upper but at all the little things you don't notice, I think he was great and transitioning forward without him may be with them all season long. Otherwise, I'm cool with losing all these guys: Mason was nice but I thought a tad overrated, Burks and Brewer really didn't fit their needs, Koufos was nice but replaceable and Williams, Johnson and Marikovic are fungible commodities.

Re-signed:
Harrison Barnes (4yr/$85m)
I'm cool with this. I thought the trade for Barnes last season was the perfect move for them and, okay, the money is a little high but he's the guy they want, so why not pay him? Barnes is not merely the adult in the room, he's the right adult for them: solid pro, handles his business, performs his role on both ends and doesn't try to do too much, exactly the security blanket this youth movement needs.

In:
Cory Joseph (3yr/$37m), Trevor Ariza (2yr/$25m), Dwayne Dedmon (3yr/$40m), Richaun Holmes (2yr/$9.8m), Tyler Lydon (2yr)
Joseph is a reliable 2nd string PG, Ariza brings veteran smarts and big play ability, Dedmon will contribute down low and fits well with Bagley, and Holmes is great big man off the bench. (Hmmm...not sure what Tyler Lydon offers, but it's a non-guaranteed deal). If the youngsters all take a step forward then these vets will have room to make good contributions and this could be the shocker team of the season.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Kyle Guy, Justin James (3yr/$4.2m), Tyler Ulis, Hollis Thompson,
I think Ulis is kinda perfect off the bench for the Nuggets, not sure what he brings to any other team, unfortunately.

Over/Under (37.5): I'm going over
The ceiling of this team is amazingly high: if the youngsters each get a little better and each of those vets does what they're supposed to do, this team really could be awesome. I'm guessing it'll be a tougher road than that as they are in the tougher conference and arguably the toughest division. And, again, I know this sounds crazy but they're gonna miss Willie Cauley-Stein more than they realize. And what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic might become a problem, too: in the final year of his deal they have to decide by January whether he's in their future or trade bait. Outside of that, I don't see any moves to make, so if it starts wobbly...well, it'll stay wobbly. I think they'll be good and in the contention for the 8th seed but I think they falter down the stretch. (That said, this team has perhaps the best potential to overachieve than any other team in the league)



Suns
Out:
Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding, George King, Dragan Bender, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes, Troy Daniels, TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, 2020 1st rd pick (top 7 protected),
I still don't understand the draft day TJ Warren trade (uh, giveaway), guess they thought they needed the roster space; but I always found him to be an under appreciated scoring SF and won't be as easy to replace as the Suns suppose. I'm okay with giving up on Dragan Bender (I never could figure out his game: what does he do?) but I'm a little surprised they were so quick to cut bait on Josh Jackson (who didn't get his extension picked up by the Grizzlies either) or DeAnthony Melton (dude had some good moments, could've been good in a Suns uni). I forgot they even had Jamal Crawford and they had no real use for Holmes, I guess. The other (Fredette, Spalding, King, Daniels) are easy come/easy go guys.

Re-signed:
Tyler Johnson (exercised player option for 1yr/$19m), Kelly Oubre (2yr/$30m), Deandre Ayton (team exercised option; 2yr), Mikal Bridges (team exercised option; 2yr),
Johnson is perfectly reasonable 2nd string PG (although $19m is a steep price tag for that role). Rolling with Ayton, Oubre and Bridges is where the Suns are for the next 3-5 years and I think after years of poor drafts (like recently cast off Bender and Jackson), they've finally found a young core they can build around. I don't expect a lot of W's this season but the future looks better than it has in years.

In:
Jalen Lecque (4yr/$6.1m), Aron Baynes,Ty Jerome (2yr/$4.5m), Dario Saric, Cameron Johnson (2yr/$8.3m), Jevon Carter, Ricky Rubio (3yr/$51m), Frank Kaminsky (2yr/$9.8m), Cheick Diallo (2yr/$1.7m), Jared Harper
I'm a big Ricky Rubio fan and I think the scoring potential of this team will match his efforts, but defensively he doesn't bring much and no one else does either (re: they're gonna lose a lot of 124-116 kinda games). I'm also a big Dario Saric fan but I kinda think he's likely to be frustrated by losing and could turn inward (I already do not expect him to be back in Phoenix next year). I like Baynes, he'll bring some toughness and veteran smarts that this team needs; but he won't bring enough production to really make a difference. Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome are either part of their upswing in drafting or a return to the years of busts (I'm not optimistic about either of these guys, unfortunately). Kaminsky needs a second chance but I don't see what he brings to the Suns (or vice versa), this is one of the most puzzling signings of the summer. Diallo, too, is still young enough to turn into something and unlike Kaminsky, I think Phoenix could be a good spot for him to get some low-key minutes. No idea who Lecque, Carter and Harper are.

Over/Under (28.5): I'm going under
I think they'll score a lot of points but they'll give up even more night in/night out. Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric and Ayton is a nice starting five but the depth gets dicey after that and the lack of fit between any of these players does not suggest cohesion will be coming. I just don't see how this team wins games at all.

2018-19 NBA Finals (Game Six)

So far...
Bucks over Pistons (4)/Warriors over Clippers (6)
Raptors over Magic (5)/Nuggets over Spurs (7)
Sixers over Nets (5)/Blazers over Thunder (5)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Rockets over Jazz (5)

Bucks over Celtics (5)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Raptors over Sixers (7)/Blazers over Nuggets (7)

Raptors over Bucks (6)/Warriors over Blazers (4)

Then...

Warriors 109-118 Raptors
The Warriors were okay, the Raptors were really good, got big offense from Siakam and Gasol to cover up that Kawhi was actually pretty mediocre for the first three quarters. Good win for the Raptors at home, as I predicted. Some people were so amazed by this result and were quickly selling their Warriors stock, suggesting the dynasty was already over. But why? Shit, man, the Warriors had a long lay off (after dusting off the Blazers) to ponder how to get by without Durant, while the Raptors were starting their first Finals appearance at home after finding themselves in a tough series over the Bucks, arguably the best team in the league. This result was not a shock to me.

Warriors 109-104 Raptors
Warriors bounce back, control the offense, played good defense, got good minutes out of Cousins (good not great, let's relax on his performance) and generally looked like the team that swept the Blazers. The Raptors were not bad, Kawhi was actually pretty good, but the supporting cast didn't shine out big like the game before, so the Warriors were able to build and keep the lead. Again, to me, this was not unexpected: I thought they'd be split after two games, I kinda figured the Raptors would strike first and then the Warriors would strike back, and go on a run...

Raptors 123-109 Warriors
...Expect that the run did not happen. (At least not yet) Klay came up gimpy after Game Two (worth recalling that Iguodala came up gimpy after Game One) and Kevon Looney was announced injured and out for the season. Curry was amazing (47/8/7) but without Klay, the Warriors didn't have enough scoring and were never in this game. The Raptors controlled the tempo from beginning to end, everyone played well, not a dominant performance but a consistent and convincing one.

Raptors 105-92 Warriors
Klay returned and was great, Looney also returned and was fine, but even still the Raptors controlled the ball throughout and the Warriors just could not generate enough offense to get into the game. In the 3rd quarter, Curry went cold, Kawhi got hot and that was pretty much it. The Raptors were crisp and confident throughout. All signs pointing to the Raptors finishing it in the next game.

Warriors 106-105 Raptors
Durant returned and was great...until early in the 2nd quarter when he got hurt again (re-injured his achilles or newly injured his achilles?) and did not return; he only played a few minutes but he was very effective and gave the squad a huge lift. The Warriors held control until late in the 4th quarter, when the Raptors had an offensive flurry and took a 6 point lead with three minutes to go. Suddenly the Raptors went cold, there were a bunch of weird plays from both sides (were you expecting a sloppy over-and-back in the last two minutes of a Finals game?), and the Warriors are still alive. They're depleted but they have announced that they can still win...though Durant and Looney are now officially gone, Cousins was already injured, and Klay and Iguodala have both suffered, as well.

So what happens now?

I say the Raptors win Game Six. A weird wrinkle I hadn't previously considered: both these teams are better on the road. The Warriors were outmanned and abysmal in Games Three and Four, the Raptors were sluggish and sloppy in Games Two and Five. The Raptors fanbase is loud, crazy and obsessed; the Warriors fanbase is grumpy and fickle. I think the Raptors will steel themselves, play their good spread-it-around offense, keep Draymond and Klay in check on the other end and pile on points as the fans file for the exits. I think there's something nerve-wracking about playing in front of your own fans, while being on the road can really bring a team together.

Kawhi is never awful and is pretty much always a great defender but his offense has been a bit spotty, I expect him to be better in Golden State. The infusion of Western conference players (Gasol, Green, Ibaka) has brought the Raptors plenty of confidence on the Warriors floor. I expect Siakam, Van Vleet and Lowry to be aggressive throughout and I would expect Anunoby (probably won't play if Durant isn't in there), Powell and McCaw to make the most of any time they see. I think the Raptors are capable of playing their best game.

Meanwhile, Draymond has been the MVP, Curry has been the other MVP (that one that will get the votes), Klay has been great when available, Iguodala is giving his all....but that's about it. Durant and Looney are both officially not gonna play again this season. Cousins has reminded me of Gronkowski out there: he's still big enough and smart enough to be effective at times, he can still make the right play here and there, but mostly he looks like he's lugging a pullout couch up a flight of stairs; I don't think the Warriors can rely in any way on him having a big game. Livingston has not been a negative but he hasn't been much of a positive either, I don't see how his contribution could raise the level of the team at this point. McKinnie has had nice moments but not enough to make up for the loss of Durant. Bogut is officially shot (*). Jerebko, Bell and Jones have not fared well at all. Curry and Klay and Draymond and Iguodala will have to be absolutely perfect on both ends of the floor and I just don't see how they do it.

The return of Kevin Durant was set up to be a painful gimmick from the beginning. I certainly hope this doesn't do damage to his career but we already know he'll be missing most of next season wherever he plays, so there's nothing good about this for him. He's an athlete, he wanted to play, the team wanted him to play, he tried to play and didn't work in his favor, that's a shame but the blame goes to everyone. It was enough, though, to get the Warriors over the hump in Game Five--even his limited production was better than what McKinnie was gonna do and they held the lead for most of that game. So where do the Warriors get that from in Game Six? The fans? I ain't seeing it. I think the Raptors play a great game and the Warriors look like they're running in sand. Raptors in 6.


(* Do you realize he won the DPOY in the Australian League....this year? He is the reigning DPOY and MVP of the Australian League...man, that don't reflect all that well on the Australian League, does it?)

Recent Sports Watching

NHL
I love hockey but the Stanley Cup Finals is pretty much all I get to see. I caught Games One, Four, Five, Six and Seven and I think I found the Blues to be the better team in general. The Bruins were wild and up for anything, the Blues were more controlled and tended to want to dominate possession. But the game is all about energy and when the Bruins bring the active, they score more goals.

Blues 2-4 Bruins
Blues looked better, Bruins played better. Bruins had the energy and pretty much controlled throughout but the Blues showed flashes of an offense that could hold possession and attack.

Blues 3-2 Bruins
Bruins 7-2 Blues

Bruins 2-4 Blues
Opposite of Game One: I thought the Bruins played more compact and reliable but the Blues played wild, brought the energy and locked down this W early on.

Blues 2-1 Bruins
This series will be remembered for Game Five where the Blues committed an obvious penalty and finished the play with the goal that finished off the win. Okay: I don't watch a lot of hockey and I sometimes miss which interactions are illegal and which are just par for the course, but even I could tell right away that that was a foul--no idea how the refs missed it. Just to hammer home the point: the dude who committed the foul got the puck passed back to him after the dude he fouled turned it over--and he wasn't ready for the pass because he was already arguing with the ref who didn't even make a call! That makes him the guiltiest-looking human being I have ever seen. That kid with the chocolate icing smeared on his face who has no idea what happened to the cake has been moved to 2nd place. The Blues dude gave up on the play to start arguing--that's guilty! That alone should be 2 minutes in the box! And even though the Bruins dominated the final ten minutes or so of that match, they could not overcome the Blues' lead.

Bruins 5-1 Blues
Game Six was set up for the Blues to finish it off, but they didn't show up, man. I thought the Blues were the better team but they played tight and got frustrated by their inability to score. This game was still close deep into the 3rd, Blues sorta checked out by the end, Bruins piled it on, Blues got chippy late but never challenged the scoreboard. Again, I generally thought the Blues were the better team but once the Bruins started scoring, they just piled it on. (I think Binnington (Blues goalie) has been great and should be MVP if the Blues win; but he does have two games (Three and Six--both home games!) where he got beaten like a Bond villain and that is awkward)

Blues 4-1 Bruins

Game Seven: Whoever brings the energy will win the game. Bruins came out crazy but the Blues were able to snake two goals (one right before halftime--I love/hate those!) and seem pretty well in control after the 1st period. But I thought both teams were frisky and in it to win it, so I still expected more goals, maybe even a tie game going into the 3rd. But the 2nd period was pretty even, both teams played better defense than offense, which kinda surprised me: I thought we'd see more playmaking, more guys trying to be the hero, rather than tightening up on D. But the 2nd period was pretty conservative as neither team ever got their offense set up. Still close enough where anything can happen. But a beautiful counter attack goal by the Blues with around 9 minutes left sucked the life of the Bruins. Their defenders start slacking out there, Blues got another goal and this game was over. The Bruins scored a late on to give the fans something to cheer about (nice top shelf knuckleball). 

Good win for the Blues! As I keep saying, I thought the Blues were the better team throughout and when they played their game, they were gonna win. Games One, Three and Six were the ones the Blues didn't show up for, those are the ones they lost. The Bruins had a wider range of play, at their best their offense was overpowering but at their worst they couldn't hold their zone against the Blues attack. I don't watch enough hockey to know how momentous this was, but it was the first Cup for the Blues and they were in dead last in the league on January 1, so they've come a long way in the last six months. 

USA Friendlys
USA 0-1 Jamaica
USA 0-3 Venezuela
Well, the bad news is USA looked straight fucking horrible in both of these games: no creativity, no attack, no teamwork, sloppy in the backline, and no individual standouts. The good news is...the afternoons were sunny and breezy. This isn't USA's A-team, rather these were a coupla last look-over games before the Gold Cup, so I don't anticipate this is a preview of that (thank god!). That said, I doubt Jamaica or Venezuela brought their top squads, either, so this is a reminder that everyone else's depth is still greater than ours. (*sigh* Shouldn't USA be better by now?) Int'l soccer comes and goes so its hard to know what the Gold Cup will bring, I try to enjoy each tourney as the discrete event that it is. So I expect USA will be in, say, the final four, but we could just as easily get bounced by Martinique or somebody. I won't make a prediction because I have no idea what will happen.


Champions League
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Ain't gonna lie: this was the dullest Champions League match of the whole season. I just happened to have seen that Liverpool won just as I was about to sit down and watch the replay (thank you Yahoo Baseball! (*)), which didn't surprise me, so I hoped at least for an exciting match. Not really. Liverpool got a PK on basically the first play of the game (dude, why was the defender waiving his arm like that? Wtf was that guy doing?), drilled it and that was pretty much it because Tottenham never could get any offense going. It stayed that way for 80 minutes or so, got a little more furious on the way out, but not much more because Liverpool was the better team throughout and sat on their one-goal lead to strangle this game. They stuck a late goal (nice finish) but that didn't do much to diminish the general lameness of this game.

That's too bad, I kinda loved this whole tournament. I watched as much this year as I've probably ever seen and I dug all of it. I was so into Ajax, really impressed by Barcelona, Juventus overachieved, Real Madrid underachieved, Bayern Munich got real old real fast and, holy shit, Man U was in the quarters (how on earth did that happen?). The big what-if is PSG, all they had to do was slip past a hapless Manchester and they might've done some damage. Liverpool was the best team of the whole tourney (they did beat Barca, too, so they earned the crown) and Tottenham just kept managing to survive all the way to the last game (if it was two games, I'd make it even odds for them to come back and take it).


French Open
I saw virtually none of this (I'm not an early morning sorta joe) except the very end of Thiem over Djokovic in the semifinals. The match was called the night before (for some reason), then suffered a long rain delay the next morning, then back and forth all the way. I expected Djokovic to take control but he never quite did, I expected Thiem to falter but he never quite did. Tennis is weird that way: the competition is so close at this level that the tiniest differences loom large. Either way, the winner was gonna get smoked by Nadal (hey, Thiem took a set off him, nice work).


(*) Angry old man rant: back in the day the sports ticker across the bottom of the screen during a ball game was the greatest invention since the flush toilet and I have actual memories of the ticker itself (1996 SEC Tourney B-ball final, I still don't believe UK lost that game). But now in a day and age when I get any score any time anywhere in the universe, I don't need the damn ticker. And putting in Bundesliga scores is supposed to make you look cool--but I watch my soccer on DVR, so now I have to start avoiding the damn ticker that I haven't needed in forever and just takes up space on the screen. Do you get it? The ticker actually interferes with my love of sports! Like the beeper and the VCR, it had its time and place and now it just takes up space.

2018-19 NBA Finals

The Raptors took advantage of yet another late collapse by the Bucks to earn their first trip to the NBA Finals. The Raptors were able to ride their experienced vets while the Bucks suddenly looked like a bunch of dudes that have never been this far before (*). The Bucks are a team built around Giannis and when he's got his game going, everyone else has a lot more room to maneuver, but what I didn't notice until the last coupla games: it isn't Giannis that gets it going, it's Middleton; Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else follows. And in those last three games Middleton checked out and the Bucks couldn't overcome his disappearance. So if they let Middleton go (I'm guessing they will, he's gonna want more than they're gonna wanna pay), what they need to look for is a pass-first ball-handler with an eye for what makes Giannis go (don't seem sexy, but how about Cory Joseph?). To that end, they must retain Brogdon first and foremost and groom him to replace Middleton's early-game confidence. And if they can keep Lopez on something like a bargain deal, I reckon he'll be back, too. But I'd be pretty surprised to see Middleton or Mirotic back in the fold next year (and if they can move on from Tony Snell, that would probably be a good idea). They don't have a lot of money to spend but they do have Giannis, Coach Bud and a suddenly hardened supporting cast. The Bucks announced themselves as a premiere regular season squad, I'd say they're still the favorite for #1 in the East.

I like the Raptors, I like their outside shooting, their rebounding, their defense, their fans are rabid, the coach seems like a gamer and the bench is still effective (Van Vleet!) even as the rotation tightens up. And if the Warriors are rolling in with a hobbled Kevin Durant and a probably unreliable Demarcus Cousins, they've got a real shot at pulling the upset. This is the weakest Warriors side since their first appearance back in the day. That said, the Warriors still have a lot of talent and know-how, can Kawhi be enough to rattle them? I think Lowry really needs to be a monster for the Raptors to win, if he plays flawless basketball that's gonna give the Warriors some serious problems. Gasol, Green and Ibaka need to be merely reliable, whatever they get out of Powell and Van Vleet is a bonus and I'm curious to see if they get anything out Patrick McCaw, but Lowry needs to be a scorer and a foul accumulator.

The Warriors have off-court turmoil (sorta) that threatens to interfere with their year's title run, even though we all know that Durant is gone and that they never needed Cousins to begin with (could be more of a liability than a help in this series). Seeing how they handle Durant's absence--and possible return--is really the fun part of this series. He clearly won't play in Game One, doesn't seem likely for Game Two either. How can he play Game Three? If it gets to Game Seven, that's different, that's all hands on deck time. But any time before that seems like either a desperate gamble by the team or an indefensible attention grab by Durant. And if Cousins piles up technicals or has an adverse outburst, how do they handle that? Cousins was always just a time-killing rental, never really a part of the team, what do they do if he costs them a game or throws off the feng shui? Draymond has been great this post-season, Curry has been Curry, Klay has been good (thought not great), and Iguodala has generally been very good. They've gotten good minutes out of Looney, McKinnie and Jerebko but Livingston has been unreliable and Bogut is just there for old time's sake. That main four is still pretty great, the rest of the cast knows what they're there to do and I don't think they need Durant or Cousins to win.

I like the Raptors to take Game One but it seems inconceivable that the Warriors come back home down 2-0, so I gotta take the Warriors in Game Two. Back home, I like the Warriors to get their groove back and be up 3-1 heading back to Toronto. I like the Raptors to take Game Five and the Warriors to finish the series off in Game Six. If that works out, then I suspect Curry wins MVP, unless Klay shoots the lights out and shuts down Lowry (though Draymond may well be the most deserving). Warriors in 6.


(*) Even though I thought the Raptors were the most likely team to come out of the East all year long, I went with the Bucks going into the Conference Finals. Looking back on it, it feels like I was actually overrating the Celtics and underrating the Sixers. The ease with which the Bucks demolished the Celtics seemed so much more impressive three weeks ago and the struggle the Raptors had with the Sixers seems much more impressive now. As weird as that Sixers roster is and as solid as the Celtics roster seemed, feels now like the Sixers are a lot closer to success than the Celtics (and possibly even the Bucks!). The Raptors need Kawhi back and the chances of that seem better with every W.

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

Blazers - Warriors
Damien Lillard is balling, CJ McCollum has had some of that Lillard shine rub off on him, Rodney Hood has had a resurgence, Enes Kanter is jitterbugging around the basket pretty good right now, Al-Farouk Aminu is a pretty good defender, Mo Harkless and Evan Turner have had moments, Seth Curry is a neat thing to have off the bench in this series, even Zach Collins showed up and gave good minutes in the last round (and did you realize Meyers Leonard had 30 FGA against the Nuggets? He took thirty shots?).  I like the way the Blazers play and when Lillard is commanding the attention, everyone else has room to have a good game, so this team really can hang with anyone.

Unfortunately, the Warriors are better than the Blazers even without Durant. Curry has been balling out again lately, Draymond is reborn (*), Klay was great on D against the Rockets (only so-so on offense), Iguodala looked as good as he's looked in a while and Kevon Looney looks like a legit part of the offense again; but Durant is gone (at least for a while), Cousins is gone (right?), Jerebko is nice but hasn't quite found his spot yet, Livingston has not looked good on either side in a while, Bogut is just for a few minutes at a time, McKinnie and Cook seem like nice guys. But Curry and Klay and Draymond are back in charge and that is, I think, a beautiful thing. All the Warriors need.

My gut was to go Warriors in 5 because I just can't make the case that the Blazers can win overall, so why not go ahead and finish them off quickly? But I'm not sure that follows because Lillard alone is dangerous. But...I feel like the Warriors will be up 3-1 after 4, so I gotta go Warriors in 5 (wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers won Game One). 


Raptors - Bucks
My pre-season pick was Raptors over Warriors, which was also my prediction going into the post-season, too, so it seems like that's what I'd go with here. Nope. The Bucks are better than the Raptors. I like the make-up of the Raptors...if they'd had more experience together. Gasol, especially, looks lost out there at times as do Ibaka and Green, throw in that Siakam is in a brand new place in his career and it seems like Lowry still hasn't quite calibrated all of his teammates to the game plan. They lived off a deep bench all season long but that's more or less gone now, so it all comes down to how quickly this core can come together. The fact that that's even something to worry about makes them no match for the Bucks.

Giannis is the undisputed center of the Bucks universe. When he's on, the rest of the supporting cast has room to make do their thing and contribute. If he's getting the calls, the Bucks are not gonna be beaten by the Raptors. If Giannis struggles to find his game, the Buck supporting cast is not enough to win, so the Raptors must stop Giannis. I don't see how they get that done. I don't see how the Raptors outperform Giannis, therefore I cannot make the case for the Raptors to win. I want these both of these matchups to closer but I just don't think they are. The Warriors and Bucks are better than their opponents. So, like the Warriors, I will take Bucks in 5.


(*) Draymond can get thrown out of any game at any given moment as reliably as anyone I've ever seen--even Rasheed Wallace had more sense of himself than this. As we see the refs increasingly get yelled at, dismissed or conferred with after every play, does Draymond shield a lot of other players to yap or does he close down the refs' desire to hear anything from anyone? Does he make a ref more or less reactionary? And how does that play out for everyone else on the court? I dunno, but I'll be watching that for as long as Draymond remains in these playoffs.

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.

The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.

Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).

The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.


And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!

I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.

I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.


(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.

2017-18 NBA Finals

Both conferences went to Game Seven this year (for the first time since 1979) and both were decided by....crappy shooting. The Celtics just never got hot enough to hang with Lebron and the Rockets went ice cold in the second half, after over-performing in the first half. And so Cavs-Warriors IV begins tonight. This was my pre-season prediction and my prediction at the end of the regular season, so not a shocker, though the Cavs and Warriors struggled more this season than previous years.

We know what the Cavs are: Lebron and a bunch of other guys (which may or may not included Kevin Love). The Warriors at the top are the same as ever but the back end is not as good as years passed. But the story is still the same: if the Warriors shoot well, they'll probably win; if not, then the Cavs can hang around and have a chance.

The Warriors aren't as deep as previous models, they are dangerously susceptible to injury to one of their main guys (as losing Iguodala against the Rockets showed) but barring that should have enough offense to beat anyone. The Cavs are still figuring it out together (I can see this exact same squad being much better next year, oddly enough) and go as far as Lebron can carry them. He's carried them this far but Smith, Hill, Clarkson, or Thompson will need to score in addition to Love and Korver. I think Love and Thompson are the Cavs' best chance to create mismatches (though not necessarily points). I think the Warriors can more or less shut down Korver and Smith and they can outrun any addition brought by Hill or Clarkson. Draymond isn't as good as past years but Durant and Klay should be enough to outlast the Cavs.

I'll take Warriors in 5.  I like the home team to win each of the first three games, then Golden State to steal Game Four in Cleveland and wrap it up in 5. I'll take Curry as the MVP, with this rationale: in their previous championships it was the third option guy (Iguodala, Durant) that won the MVP's but this is now Durant's team with Klay as the second banana and Curry as the bonus. Curry hasn't shot all that well yet, I think he blows up in this series and reminds everyone he's the king.

2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.

Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7.  That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.


West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.

Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.

NBA Finals

(Yes, I'm a day late but Game One didn't really change my mind)

In each round of the playoffs so far I've taken the Warriors in 5. I gave the Blazers a game because I thought they'd have one great shooting night and the Warriors would have one bad shooting night, just thought they might be on the same night. Ditto against the Jazz, who possess a solid home court advantage and have played as good as anyone against GSW lately. Ditto against the Spurs because, shit, man they're the Spurs but they can't keep up with the Warrior offense.

Ditto the Cavs, who are better than last year's Cavs that beat the Warriors (I'll say it: in one of the all time flukes of all time), but they aren't any better than this year's Spurs team that just curb stomped. I gave the Warriors one L in each series in the same way: Game Three. Thought in each series that would be the weakest moment for the Warrior crew, if they were gonna lose it'd be that one. So far they're 3-0 in Game Three, I expect them to go 4-0.

After one game it looks like the Cavs might be in the midst of a smoking, a four game swept kinda smoking. Durant is an upgrade on Harrison Barnes. It is kinda weird to not see Andrew Bogut out there but otherwise everyone is good and does their job. I think this Warrior team without Durant would be still be the favorite over this year's Cavs. With Durant this Warrior team is a clear favorite every time they take the court.

This Warrior team is the best team I've ever seen. Lebron, Duncan, Shaq, Jordan, Bird, Magic, Isiah, Stockon/Malone, Dirk, Nash, KG, Hakeem never played on a team better than this one. I would take this full strength team (and they don't even have their coach right now) over any team I ever saw. I'd give Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, Isiah's Pistons the best chance to hang but I think the combo of Draymond, KD, Steph, Klay, Livingston, and any other 5 dudes would take out even the best of the Jordan squads. This squad reminds me of Gretzky's Oilers, Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, the back-to-back Florida Gator teams: high level of dominance that's built to last.

Meanwhile, the Cavs don't have any clear competition in the East for 2-3 more years. The Celtics are the closest, they could pull something together but they haven't yet. The Bucks have an exciting young core but are at least 2 years from being better than Lebron. The Sixers have a shot at becoming something great, but could also be rebuilding forever. The Raptors were as good as they've ever been this year and it did not happen, I don't know how they even come close to the Cavs any time soon. The Wizards will likely be doomed with a lameass bench for a while. The Heat would seem to be closer than anyone thought they'd be, but they also seem like a faulty concoction that could get re-concocted at a moment's notice. Hawks, Pacers, Knicks, Pistons, Hornets...I mean, nah...

So right now I fully expect to see Wariors-Cavs IV next year. And right now I don't know why we wouldn't get Warriors-Cavs V the year after that. In three years the Cavs might slow down enough for a rising East team to catch them, in three years maybe the mileage on the Warrior roster might begin to leave them in the reach of the Spurs or Rockets. Bur I doubt it, I'll stick with Warriors-Cavs for the foreseeable future.

And, yeah, for no reason at all I'll still stick by the Cavs catching the Warriors in Game Three (maybe even in OT, that'd be cool). Kyrie can pretty much do whatever he wants out there, still hard to imagine him outscoring the Warriors by himself but I gave the Cavs a game, I'll stick by it.

NBA Finals

Oh, man, Game Seven was the classic we all hoped it would be. Went down to the wire, some great defensive plays (Lebron's rundown block is now his preeminent career highlight!) though only a modicum of clutch offensive play (Kyrie with the game winner). The game itself went back and forth all the way through, completely unlike the other six games in this series. I kept waiting for the Warriors to get hot but the longer you wait for that to happen, the more you know it isn't coming.

Klay and Curry did not shoot particularly well and still the game went into the last few minutes. Draymond was absolutely brilliant, Iguodala played his best but really no one else played well. Can't figure out why Livingston didn't play more and why on earth was Ezeli out there late in the game? Harrison Barnes was just terrible (for the last three games really) and Speights never really got a chance to do anything. The longer the series went on the more discombobulated the Warriors got. And without Klay and/or Curry piling on points, the Warriors were grinding their wheels all night.

The Cavs got contributions from everyone. Love got every rebund, Kyrie hit the game winner, Tristan plugged the lane with authority, even Shumpert had a big four point play. JR Smith gave them some big buckets early in the 3rd quarter (not sure why the Cavs went away from him, he was Warrior hot for a while there). And Lebron (MVP) was his usual badass self: led all players in points, rebounds, blocks, and everything else--and this was in a seven game series against the greatest single season team of all time! I can't believe Lebron still has haters out there but Twitter assures me it is so. *smh*

But let's keep one thing in mind: the Warriors played awful and the Cavs played flawlessly and it was still close very late in the game. The Warriors struggled with injuries and suspensions, Klay never found the form that he had earlier in the playoffs and Barnes disappeared completely, and they still could've won games Five and Seven. Last year we downgraded the Warriors performance because they faced so many compromised squads, so this year I think its important to remember that they were the compromised squad and still should've won it all. The Cavs played three great games in a row to pull off the improbable but the Warriors still had the best team from beginning of the season to the end (well, til about the last 3-4 minutes anyway). Furthermore, I expect the Warriors to re-load (Batum, Teletovic and Tyler Zeller and they'll win 65 games without much problem). Great series, memorable, congrats to Lebron in particular.

(Through it all I couldn't help thinking of Russell Westbrook sitting on his couch watching the Cavs come back on the Warriors. That guy is already getting in shape for next year, a contract year for him, he wants to start next season TODAY! Right now, he's my pre-pre-pre-season pick for MVP. I expect him to be on a mission to destroy everyone he faces)

Cavs-Warriors, Game One

Here's the moment:


The Cavs had been on a run, even briefly taking the lead after being down by as much as 16 in the 3rd. But after this play, Iguodala went hognutty on both ends and Livingston was just untouchable. Warriors outscored the Cavs 33-21 for the rest of the game and comfortably took Game One.

I don't think the play was malicious, I think Dellavadova was anticipating Iguodala bringing the ball from his left hand back to his right, but he didn't which led Delly's hand to go crotchways. I think not calling a technical was the correct call, it was a foul but not a technical. I don't blame Iguodala for being pissed and he handled in the right way, namely by stroking jumpers and playing pesky D to close out the game. (The weird part of the play to me: Delly lunges at Iguodala and as Iguodala reacts, look at Delly's eyes...what the hell is he looking at? Not the ref, not a teammate, not the man he's supposed to be guarding, it seems too quick for him to be reacting to the whistle but he is intently looking at....something)

This was an awkward loss for the Cavs because Steph and Klay didn't really do much of anything (I believe it was their lowest collective output all year long!) and the Cavs still couldn't make a dent. JR Smith played 37 minutes and took only 3 shots (3?!?!), so there was a missing component for the Cavs offense but that hardly felt like the problem. The problem is the Cavs' D...or lack thereof. Man, Kyrie's defense is bloody awful! He was lost at all times, looking dangerously like Enes Kanter out there. Kyrie had better score a lot and at a very high efficiency if his defense is going to be this bad.

The Warrior bench came up big and if that keeps happening then this series will be over quick. I think the Cavs can clamp down on Steph or Klay or Draymond but if they're getting torched by Barbosa, then what's the point? The Cavs need to hit a lot of 3's to keep this series going and I suspect they will have one, maybe two games were they get hot enough to keep the Warriors at bay. But the D is not gonna shut down Golden State. I said Warriors in 7 but now I'm thinking a gentleman's sweep is more likely.

NBA Finals Prediction

I'll go basic: Warriors in 7. To put it simply if Steph and Klay shoot the lights out, the Warriors will easily win. I'm guessing they'll do that four times out of seven. This Cavs team is better than last year's model and they're playing well right now so I expect them to win games (maybe even Game Two in Oaktown) but the Warriors FG% will determine this series. I expect Kyrie to have one big game, Lebron to have one big game and the Cavs supporting cast in general to have one big game and that will carry this series to seven games. I'm not convinced that the Warriors completely have their mojo even after that fine comeback against OKC and Draymond is only a meltdown away from really screwing up this series. But the Warriors are solid unit, they've been here before (whereas really most of the Cavs have not) and they shoot well enough to outscore most anybody. I think this series will be more competitive than most commentators think but I'll stick with the defending champs to hold on.

NBA Western Conference Finals

Game Seven, the two greatest words in all of sports. I had the Thunder in six, which should've worked out but Durant and Westbrook played wild down the stretch, while the Warriors regained their shooting touch. Feels like the Warriors are back, they've got the momentum and the Thunder are backpedaling. But I'm sticking with the Thunder! Don't get me wrong: if Klay and Steph break the record for 3's in a playoff game again, the Thunder don't have much of a shot. But I'm betting the Warriors stumble tonight and the Thunder reclaim the momentum.

In Game Six, I kept waiting for Waiters or Foye or Morrow to make a play or two, I think that's all it would've taken to secure the victory. Instead, Westbrook became turnover prone and Durant kept forcing shots, leaving their teammates to stand around and watch. This is why they lost so many games in the 4th quarter this season. (Their 4th quarter struggles are basic: everyone else's defense tightens up and the Thunder's does not, a step back on both ends of the court) Easy to blame the big stars for the loss in Game Six but I'm gonna go ahead and blame Coach Donovan instead. He failed to rotate Morrow in to get him touches throughout the game, he didn't give Foye enough minutes and he turned his back on Kanter, who was actually effective shooting the ball. It was incumbent on Donovan to remind his big stars to remember the contributions of their teammates and the way to do that was to be more effective in his subs. That becomes less of an issue in Game Seven, when it probably will come down to Durant and/or Westbrook being the hero.

As for the Warriors, its easy to think they're back, that they've shaken off the rust and returned to form. But, except for Klay (who has been pretty magnificent all through the post-season) and Iguodala (whose defense has been superb), I'm not really seeing it. Steph was still tentative to get shots at the basket, Draymond is still being goofy (and one technical foul away from missing a game), Barnes has actually been pretty bad on offense (not bad on D), Livingston and Speights (outside of one good shooting night) haven't given much at all. And you're telling me that the key is Bogut? The Warriors beat people all year long because they can shoot the lights out and pile on plenty of points at a moment's notice. That can still happen, to be sure, but unless it happens, I'm not sure they're the better team.

I think OKC gets over their butterflies and puts the pressure back on Golden State. Unless Klay and Steph are perfect, I think the Warrior swagger might get them into trouble. Westbrook is relentless, he just needs to find his teammates again and Durant just needs a solid shooting night to put them over the top. Don't be surprised if Coach Kerr tightens up and Coach Donovan makes all the right moves. Thunder in 7.

Pointless Trade Idea

Wolves get David Lee (1 yr/$15.5m) and a 2016 1st rd pick (Warriors); Hornets get Pekovic (3 yrs/$35m); Warriors get Williams (1 yr/$7m), Zeller (2 yrs/$9.5m/team option).

Wolves ditch the long term commitment to injury-prone veteran C that has the potential to hold up their future roster construction and the development of their fine young low post talents and replace him with one year of a crafty veteran who knows how to be a good team player (and show Towns how to score, Dieng how to pass, Payne how to maximize his abilities). More salary for them but no matter, they're plenty well below the cap. And since they're taking back more salary than they're sending out, the Warriors should add 2016 1st rd pick (or perhaps 2016, 2017, 2020 2nd rd picks). Seriously, I think Lee wold be great for the Wolves and with this one move the roster would be set. Put the team on the court and let them play. If Bennett/Muhammad or Martin/Budinger can be moved, pull the trigger; if a blockbuster for Rubio comes along, think it over; other than that, put the kids out there and let's see 'em.

Hornets get a long term vet down low on a contract that gets better as the cap rises,if Pekovic stays healthy at all, he's pretty good and defensively an upgrade on whatever the Hornets would've had anyway. They give up on a young big but the Hornets ability to develop players (or draft well in the first place) is not that great and Zeller is not so promising that he's untouchable or anything, whereas Pekovic is at least a reliable veteran. The Hornets would also be giving up on Marvin Williams, a poor free agent signing that hasn't been the replacement for McRoberts that they needed. Not a great deal but a reasonable one, Pekovic probably is better for them going forward than Zeller and/or Williams.

Warriors have got to get rid of Lee and they'd prefer to get absolutely nothing in return. Williams (I think) can be bought out, which is expensive but less expensive than keeping Lee; and Zeller is cheap enough to be flipped for a coupla 2nd rd picks. Might want Zeller: Pelicans need cheap young talent, Celtics might be able to coach Zeller into a nice player, Sixers always love big guys on rookie deals. Repeat: Warriors must get rid of Lee. What they get back is entirely secondary. In my version they need to do more work beyond this deal but its worth it. (2nd rd picks are a great way of looking like you're accumulating promising future assets when really you're dumping toxic current assets)

NBA Finals (Final)

Going into the Warrior-Cav series, I saw the matchup through two separate prisms: what Lebron endured with the Heat against the Spurs last year and how the Warriors handled the Rockets in the previous round. Turns out it was a replay of the Warrors-Grizzlies match in the 2nd round: Warriors shaky for the first three games, then in overdrive for the next three games.

There was no way the Cavs were gonna win this series. In basketball having the best player is a hell of an advantage but even that gets neutralized over time: the advantage is in the efficiency that one all-world dude can bring but when he has to do EVERYTHING then the numbers suffer and cracks appear. James Harden carried the Rockets to the Conference Finals by himself but the Warriors were just too deep; ditto for Lebron carrying the Cavs.

Iguodala as MVP is a fine choice, I reckon. Not sure how Curry got zero votes and personally I would've gone with Lebron. But Lebron was lackluster in game 6 (I'll say it: that was the quietest 32/15/9 you'll ever see) and Iguodala definitely had an impact on the series (though you could say the same for Draymond, Klay and Livingston too). 

Going forward the Cavs look to integrate Love and Kyrie, re-up Tristan and Mozgov (and move on from Smith, Shumpert and Dellavedova) and come back stronger next year. They'll be over the cap (not my problem) and I can't help wondering who the coach will be (Mark Jackson? John Calipari? David Blatt? (heh heh, jk)) but the Cavs should dominate the East next year (though the Heat, Pacers, Celtics and Wizards all look interesting). 

The Warriors seem to be in dynasty mode but I'm not so sure. They have to get rid of David Lee, they might have to get rid of Maurice Speights too and they might still want to move Iguodala after that. The team will still be really good but they had amazing depth (and health) this year and when that starts to slip, injuries creep in, losing streaks start to happen--I'm not saying its all over for the Warriors, but I don't see how they could be this good again next year. (Well, this Warrior team is one of the single best teams I ever saw, can't imagine anybody being that good next year) 

NBA Finals (Game 3)

(Wasn't able to do a Finals 2-game wrap-up, I'll do a 3-game wrap-up instead. I'd like to write more French Open Finals and Women's World Cup, hopefully those come tomorrow as well)

I like the Warriors to throw down tonight. Returning to the Heat-Spurs from last year: Game 3 was when Lebron realized he was all alone, everything floundered down to nothing and the Spurs ran wild. This season I'd say we've already seen more out of Thompson, Mozgov, Dellavedova and Smith too than we thought we would.  Upside: Lebron's got parts to work with; Downside: if the Warriors won the next 3 games by 40 points, we'd still be raving about what a great Final those Cavs dude had; Meaning: maybe Lebron's got a crew and maybe that crew will be gone when he wakes up in the morning. We'll see tonight.

Warriors are (-2) tonight, indicating that Vegas (the undisputed god of analytics) still thinks the Warriors are the vastly superior team though they've hardly looked vastly superior to anything so far. For all the lack of scoring and rebounding, the Warriors still should've pulled out Game 2 (I thought they would right up to that goofy pass Steph tried to thread to Klay), so as horribly as they've all played (none of the Warriors have played great by any means), they're still tied with good reason to be optimistic. I predicted before the series that the Warriors would be ready to lay a smackdown in Game 3, I'll stick with it. This may be what they've been waiting for.

The Cavs are overachieving better than anyone could've imagined and Lebron is as monstrous as I can recall. His game is huge at every moment (his mistakes generally coming from fatigue from having to do so much, I'd say). Mozgov is scoring legit points, Thompson is showing himself to be a high level rebounder, Dellevadova is making the most of his opportunities, Lebron is a whole new level of wizardry.  Tough to bet against the best when he's got his crew running and they're back at home, but I can't help thinking that the Warriors should still be the better team. I think tonight the Warriors pull it together and rip.