Niners 20-31 Chiefs
A coupla personal observations: before the game I picked Chiefs 38-23 (so I expected each team to have one more score), tied at 10 at halftime I surmised the Chiefs would win 31-17 (close), at 5 minutes to go Niners up 20-17 I said to my friend, 'there's still enough time for the Chiefs to score two touchdowns' (nailed it). Strange game but the result still seems about right. Indeed, it isn't the final score that seems weird, it was the first 75% of the game that seemed weird!
Mahomes was not good for most of this game, the Chiefs offense was unusually sluggish and while the Niners were good, they weren't dominant. This was a close game that felt like the Niners had figured out the Chiefs for the most part. But while the first three quarters of the game were a Niners-inspired sludgefest, it was only a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes got loose, made plays and won the game. And down the stretch it was exactly what I thought it'd be: either Jimmy G or the Niners defense would have to make plays. Jimmy G missed a long ball to Sanders that would've put them back on top and the Niners D just ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. This isn't an indictment on Jimmy G (I still think he can be really really good) or the Niners D (that pass rush is gonna trouble for years to come), just an acknowledgement that Pat Mahomes is a magician and arguably the best in the game right now.
One thing, though: there was much complaint about Coach Shanahan's clock management at the end of the 1st half and I gotta say not only the haters wrong about Shanahan--Shanahan's moves were brilliant! It gets completely undone by the bad pass interference call on George Kittle (bad call!), but if you take that out the Niners have the ball in FG range with two timeouts and 15 seconds left. They've still got two shots at the end zone and an extra three points in the pocket--Shanahan made all the right moves, it was the refs that shot him in the foot. Shanahan didn't call timeouts earlier because he didn't need to, he knows that it's only the last 20 seconds that matter, so why stop the clock with 90 seconds to go? Unfortunate the way it played out for him but he was right and the haters all missed the point.
This really was a good match between two good teams and it stayed competitive throughout, though only got exciting late. Good W for the Chiefs! Congrats! Not a lot of fireworks in this game and it was over so quick, but an even match between two good teams and that's nothing to complain about.
Pre-pre-pre-season prediction: I like the Niners to come out of the NFC again next year, they've got the offense and the defense to get it done, I do believe in Jimmy G and in that defense and I think they'll be tough to stop going forward. Also, I just don't see anyone else in the NFC gets notably better next year: Packers, Saints and Seahawks are just getting older, Rams, Eagles and Vikings need to take a step forward (maybe but maybe not) and no one else even seems capable of going toe-to-toe with the Niners. As for the Chiefs, well, they'll have the Ravens to look forward to and a lot of teams that could make big leaps (Browns, Bills, Raiders, Steelers, Titans all come to mind) and we're not even sure that the Patriots are done (feels like it, but I'll need to see a corpse before I declare them dead).The AFC is a bit more of a minefield but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chiefs-Niners show up again next year.
As for the halftime show, I had it on mute but it sure was a visual spectacle! And, honestly, that's all the halftime show is good for anyway. We don't really need a musical act, just give us 15 minutes of visual craziness and going the Busby Berkeley/relentless visuals route is the kind of idea the NFL should probably stick with.
PS -- I know nobody asked but if we're really thinking Tom Brady might end up somewhere other than New England, doesn't Cleveland seem perfect for him? Don't you think Brady looks at Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb and that offensive line and thinks, 'Dang, I can win a Super Bowl with that?' The Browns are still looking for a Coach, why not bring in Josh McDaniels and give Tom Brady big money for 2 years? Yeah, I know what you're thinking: but what about Baker Mayfield? Yeah....what about him?
Showing posts with label 2019-20. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2019-20. Show all posts
Thursday, February 6, 2020
Sunday, February 2, 2020
2019-20 NFL Super Bowl
Conference championships
Titans 24-35 Chiefs
I thought the key to this game would be the Chiefs getting out to a quick lead to neutralize the Titan rushing attack. Uh, not so much. Titans got up 10-0 right off the bat and it seemed like the Chiefs were on their heels. But then Mahomes made plays, Chiefs scored points and soon enough the Titans were an afterthought in their own game. A note on Derrick Henry: back in the Laker threepeat days, I remember every time the Lakers came down the court and didn't give the ball to Shaq, I wondered, 'Why aren't you giving the ball to Shaq?' That's what Derrick Henry was in this playoffs: every time the Titans did something other than give the ball to Henry, I wondered, 'Why didn't you give the ball to Henry?' Seriously, this is one of those games where the coach must've pulled Henry aside and said, 'Okay, kid, you're getting the ball 40 times this week. Be ready!' But for some reason the Titans mixed up their game plan and it just didn't work, they spun their wheels and once the Chiefs got going, this was all over. Mahomes is the man.
Packers 20-37 Niners
I thought this match would be closer, thought the Packers would dial up something different then their regular season thrashing by the Niners. Uh, not so much. Niners came to play, dominated the game early. I thought Aaron Rodgers was primed to have a big game but frankly I thought Rodgers kinda killed the Packers: a bad fumble when driving in the 1st half and then a bad interception right before halftime for the Niners to pile on their lead and it was over. The Packers accumulated some points in the 2nd half but it never really mattered. The Niners controlled this game completely on both sides of the ball.
Super Bowl
Niners @ Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 54)
I think the Niners are the better team top to bottom but I am more convinced that the Chiefs (re: Patrick Mahomes) will make the plays necessary to win the game. In order for the Niners to hang they will need either a defensive TD and/or Jimmy Garropolo to make plays. Both of those things are quite possible but we haven't seen Jimmy G make plays so far and while I think he's capable, I just haven't seen it yet so I'm more convinced in Mahomes. Likewise, that Niner D is good--that pass rush is GREAT--but Mahomes has beaten good defenses before and I just have more faith in Mahomes than in anything the Niners are bringing. I think the Niners get out to a quick 10-0 lead, I think the Chiefs are up at halftime 17-16. Then I like the Chiefs to wear the Niners out in the 2nd half. Yeah, I know the Niners really are the better, more complete team, but the Chiefs have a playmaker that can squash all that pronto. I like Chiefs to win 38-23 (Chiefs and the over).
Titans 24-35 Chiefs
I thought the key to this game would be the Chiefs getting out to a quick lead to neutralize the Titan rushing attack. Uh, not so much. Titans got up 10-0 right off the bat and it seemed like the Chiefs were on their heels. But then Mahomes made plays, Chiefs scored points and soon enough the Titans were an afterthought in their own game. A note on Derrick Henry: back in the Laker threepeat days, I remember every time the Lakers came down the court and didn't give the ball to Shaq, I wondered, 'Why aren't you giving the ball to Shaq?' That's what Derrick Henry was in this playoffs: every time the Titans did something other than give the ball to Henry, I wondered, 'Why didn't you give the ball to Henry?' Seriously, this is one of those games where the coach must've pulled Henry aside and said, 'Okay, kid, you're getting the ball 40 times this week. Be ready!' But for some reason the Titans mixed up their game plan and it just didn't work, they spun their wheels and once the Chiefs got going, this was all over. Mahomes is the man.
Packers 20-37 Niners
I thought this match would be closer, thought the Packers would dial up something different then their regular season thrashing by the Niners. Uh, not so much. Niners came to play, dominated the game early. I thought Aaron Rodgers was primed to have a big game but frankly I thought Rodgers kinda killed the Packers: a bad fumble when driving in the 1st half and then a bad interception right before halftime for the Niners to pile on their lead and it was over. The Packers accumulated some points in the 2nd half but it never really mattered. The Niners controlled this game completely on both sides of the ball.
Super Bowl
Niners @ Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 54)
I think the Niners are the better team top to bottom but I am more convinced that the Chiefs (re: Patrick Mahomes) will make the plays necessary to win the game. In order for the Niners to hang they will need either a defensive TD and/or Jimmy Garropolo to make plays. Both of those things are quite possible but we haven't seen Jimmy G make plays so far and while I think he's capable, I just haven't seen it yet so I'm more convinced in Mahomes. Likewise, that Niner D is good--that pass rush is GREAT--but Mahomes has beaten good defenses before and I just have more faith in Mahomes than in anything the Niners are bringing. I think the Niners get out to a quick 10-0 lead, I think the Chiefs are up at halftime 17-16. Then I like the Chiefs to wear the Niners out in the 2nd half. Yeah, I know the Niners really are the better, more complete team, but the Chiefs have a playmaker that can squash all that pronto. I like Chiefs to win 38-23 (Chiefs and the over).
Sunday, January 19, 2020
2019-20 NFL Conference Champinships
Last week's games:
Vikings 10-27 Niners
Really good performance by the Niners, really solid all over the field, played their game and played it well. They looked really good. I thought the Vikings' strengths coming into this game were their O-line and D-line, but the Niners ripped right through both of them. The Niners ran the ball well and their pass rush wreaked havoc on the Vikings backfield. The Vikings completely ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter and the Niners just put it on them late. The Niners were really impressive and the Vikings just could not hang.
Titans 28-12 Ravens
The Ravens picked a horrible time to play their worst game of the year. Listen: a trait of Lamar Jackson that I noticed during the season was his tendency to get really down on himself for any mistake--I mean REALLY down on himself. You wanna see a youngster learn from his mistakes and a little bit of self-flagellation is gonna happen, but Lamar struck me as so hard on himself that a coach should probably take him aside and tell him to chill the fuck out. The danger of too much self-hatred is this game: the Titans got off to a good start, Lamar threw a flukey interception and it was all downhill from there. The Titans had two quick bursts of offense: two quick TDs in the 1st quarter and then two more quick ones in the 3rd quarter, but otherwise the Titans hardly an imposing offense--even with Derrick Henry dominating the game. Defensively, though, I thought the Titans were just about perfect, that spread secondary gave Lamar nowhere to go while that pass rush put the pressure on. An impressive performance by the Titans defense and they came to play hard, but really this was still available to the Ravens, but they just couldn't get going. Sad to see another tough L for Lamar Jackson this early in his career after such a great season, but the Titans did what they had to do.
Texans 31-51 Chiefs
Man, the Texans really let this one get away. They were up 14-0 instantly, fans in the stadium hadn't even gotten the seats warm and were already afraid that Titans-Ravens game was a preview for them. The Texans got another gift of a muffed punt to go up 21-0 ten minutes into the game! The turning point for me was on their next drive: the Texans got inside the 10-yard line and instead of going for it on 4th down, they took the FG; I would've gone for it, that was the jugular moment and even it failed it would've shown faith in the offense and the defense without really giving the Chiefs a momentum change moment. Instead, the momentum change came the next time the Texans had the ball when they faked a punt in their own territory and it failed. From that moment on, the Chiefs rolled and just...well, straight fuckin' destroyed the Texans. Imagine spotting the other team a 24-0 lead, giving up the entire 1st quarter and then still scoring 51 and easily covering the spread...whooch! (So, Titans fans....how ya feeling about your chances?)
Seahawks 23-28 Packers
The Packers played a good solid game: no crazy highs or lows, just stuck to the script and grinded forward to victory. The Seahawks are nice and Russell Wilson kept things spicy right to the end but they just didn't have enough to stop the Packer attack or keep up with the scoring on the other side. The Packers played smart, didn't go above and beyond just did what they had to do, a good workmanlike performance. The Seahawks are a tough team to figure because they live so much on whatever Russell Wilson invents each week, you can never tell when he's gonna make magic or when it's all going to catch up to them; in previous years I underrated the Seahawks but this year I think I overrated them.
This week:
Titans @ Chiefs (-7.5) (o/u 52)
My pre-season pick here was Chiefs over Ravens, with the Patriots being the most likely other opponent. So looking up and seeing the Titans instead makes it seem like a slam dunk, right? Well, I'd say 'yes'! Yeah, the Titans are playing really good right now, the D is keeping everything in front of it and Derrick Henry is re-inventing what an RB can do, they're the hot team and they look like a great cover as an underdog, right? Well, I'd say 'no'. Look I expected the Pats to beat the Titans because I just thought they'd make the plays to win the game but they didn't; I thought the Ravens would beat the Titans but instead they gave into their stage fright and fumbled the game away. Notice that in neither of those game did I really give the edge to the Titans playing great football. The Titans are playing good right now but so far they've come up against superior teams that failed to take what was right in front of them. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna be that way. I think the Chiefs are gonna score every time they touch the ball--because that Titans D is playing so well, it'll give the Chiefs the perfect opportunity to game plan. And if they can establish a good offense, build a lead, then the Titans will have to throw the ball and gamble on defense and those are not the strengths of this Titans team. They've had a good run but I think it ends. I'll say Chiefs 38-16 (Chiefs and the over).
Packers @ Niners (-7) (o/u 45)
These teams played a few weeks ago and the Niners housed 'em, wasn't even a game, it was over and then the Niners just kept going. I think people are expecting that to happen again but I don't. I think the Packers are going to play their best game, which will still come up short, but it'll give the Niners pause. The Niners should be able to move the ball but Jimmy G hasn't been here before, I expect not merely an interception or two but probably really badly timed ones that'll give the Packers some life. I expect Rodgers to play smart and Adams to make enough plays to keep this close. Make no mistake: I still think the Niners are the better team and will pull this out, but a close game here will probably be a blessing for them. I'll say Niners 27-21 (Packers and the over).
Vikings 10-27 Niners
Really good performance by the Niners, really solid all over the field, played their game and played it well. They looked really good. I thought the Vikings' strengths coming into this game were their O-line and D-line, but the Niners ripped right through both of them. The Niners ran the ball well and their pass rush wreaked havoc on the Vikings backfield. The Vikings completely ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter and the Niners just put it on them late. The Niners were really impressive and the Vikings just could not hang.
Titans 28-12 Ravens
The Ravens picked a horrible time to play their worst game of the year. Listen: a trait of Lamar Jackson that I noticed during the season was his tendency to get really down on himself for any mistake--I mean REALLY down on himself. You wanna see a youngster learn from his mistakes and a little bit of self-flagellation is gonna happen, but Lamar struck me as so hard on himself that a coach should probably take him aside and tell him to chill the fuck out. The danger of too much self-hatred is this game: the Titans got off to a good start, Lamar threw a flukey interception and it was all downhill from there. The Titans had two quick bursts of offense: two quick TDs in the 1st quarter and then two more quick ones in the 3rd quarter, but otherwise the Titans hardly an imposing offense--even with Derrick Henry dominating the game. Defensively, though, I thought the Titans were just about perfect, that spread secondary gave Lamar nowhere to go while that pass rush put the pressure on. An impressive performance by the Titans defense and they came to play hard, but really this was still available to the Ravens, but they just couldn't get going. Sad to see another tough L for Lamar Jackson this early in his career after such a great season, but the Titans did what they had to do.
Texans 31-51 Chiefs
Man, the Texans really let this one get away. They were up 14-0 instantly, fans in the stadium hadn't even gotten the seats warm and were already afraid that Titans-Ravens game was a preview for them. The Texans got another gift of a muffed punt to go up 21-0 ten minutes into the game! The turning point for me was on their next drive: the Texans got inside the 10-yard line and instead of going for it on 4th down, they took the FG; I would've gone for it, that was the jugular moment and even it failed it would've shown faith in the offense and the defense without really giving the Chiefs a momentum change moment. Instead, the momentum change came the next time the Texans had the ball when they faked a punt in their own territory and it failed. From that moment on, the Chiefs rolled and just...well, straight fuckin' destroyed the Texans. Imagine spotting the other team a 24-0 lead, giving up the entire 1st quarter and then still scoring 51 and easily covering the spread...whooch! (So, Titans fans....how ya feeling about your chances?)
Seahawks 23-28 Packers
The Packers played a good solid game: no crazy highs or lows, just stuck to the script and grinded forward to victory. The Seahawks are nice and Russell Wilson kept things spicy right to the end but they just didn't have enough to stop the Packer attack or keep up with the scoring on the other side. The Packers played smart, didn't go above and beyond just did what they had to do, a good workmanlike performance. The Seahawks are a tough team to figure because they live so much on whatever Russell Wilson invents each week, you can never tell when he's gonna make magic or when it's all going to catch up to them; in previous years I underrated the Seahawks but this year I think I overrated them.
This week:
Titans @ Chiefs (-7.5) (o/u 52)
My pre-season pick here was Chiefs over Ravens, with the Patriots being the most likely other opponent. So looking up and seeing the Titans instead makes it seem like a slam dunk, right? Well, I'd say 'yes'! Yeah, the Titans are playing really good right now, the D is keeping everything in front of it and Derrick Henry is re-inventing what an RB can do, they're the hot team and they look like a great cover as an underdog, right? Well, I'd say 'no'. Look I expected the Pats to beat the Titans because I just thought they'd make the plays to win the game but they didn't; I thought the Ravens would beat the Titans but instead they gave into their stage fright and fumbled the game away. Notice that in neither of those game did I really give the edge to the Titans playing great football. The Titans are playing good right now but so far they've come up against superior teams that failed to take what was right in front of them. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna be that way. I think the Chiefs are gonna score every time they touch the ball--because that Titans D is playing so well, it'll give the Chiefs the perfect opportunity to game plan. And if they can establish a good offense, build a lead, then the Titans will have to throw the ball and gamble on defense and those are not the strengths of this Titans team. They've had a good run but I think it ends. I'll say Chiefs 38-16 (Chiefs and the over).
Packers @ Niners (-7) (o/u 45)
These teams played a few weeks ago and the Niners housed 'em, wasn't even a game, it was over and then the Niners just kept going. I think people are expecting that to happen again but I don't. I think the Packers are going to play their best game, which will still come up short, but it'll give the Niners pause. The Niners should be able to move the ball but Jimmy G hasn't been here before, I expect not merely an interception or two but probably really badly timed ones that'll give the Packers some life. I expect Rodgers to play smart and Adams to make enough plays to keep this close. Make no mistake: I still think the Niners are the better team and will pull this out, but a close game here will probably be a blessing for them. I'll say Niners 27-21 (Packers and the over).
Saturday, January 18, 2020
2019-20 NCAA Bowl Results
(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
Yeah, that's about right. The game started a little slow as each team calibrated their offenses against new defensive looks, but you just knew this game was not gonna be a defensive slugfest and once they got going, both teams moved the ball pretty well. I thought the refs kinda sucked: in those first few drives they really let the teams batter each other when it seemed like both sides were looking to the refs to establish the parameters of the game. The refs failed to do that and then randomly called pass interference through the game. I thought the refs were fairly even, but Clemson had a TD called back in the 3rd quarter for what I thought was a bogus pass interference that might have sparked something. That said, this game turned out about right, the score was a little lower than I thought it would be, largely because the offenses started slow and then Clemson got frustrated by the 4th quarter and mostly just spun their wheels. LSU was really good, man, Joe Burrow was a mathematician out there all season long and he was again in the Final. (I guess I expect Clemson to start #1 next season with Alabama and Ohio State right behind them; wouldn't be surprised if that's your Final Four, along with Oklahoma, next year)
Right (24)
(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
(4) Oklahoma 28-63 (1) LSU
(3) Clemson 29-23 (2) Ohio State
(5) Georgia 26-14 (7) Baylor
(6) Oregon 28-27 (8) Wisconsin
(9) Florida 36-28 (24) Virginia
(17) Memphis 39-53 (10) Penn State
(14) Michigan 16-35 (13) Alabama
Buffalo 31-9 Charlotte
Wrong (17)
(11) Utah 10-38 Texas
(18) Minnesota 31-24 (12) Auburn
Utah State 41-51 Kent State
Central Michigan 11-48 San Diego State
Liberty 23-16 Georgia Southern
SMU 28-52 Florida Atlantic
California 35-20 Illinois
Air Force 31-21 Washington State
Mississippi State 28-38 Louisville
Wyoming 38-17 Georgia State
Indiana 22-23 Tennessee
Ohio 30-21 Nevada
Southern Mississippi 13-30 Tulane
Alcorn State 44-64 North Carolina A&T
Central Florida 48-25 Marshall
No spreads, just winners. I did pretty good picking the ranked teams--the only two I missed were another shocking upset by Texas and Minnesota sticking it to Auburn (which I would have loved to have picked!). Of the unranked teams...I dunno...total crapshoot and I didn't fare all that well. Oh well, already looking forward to next year.
Yeah, that's about right. The game started a little slow as each team calibrated their offenses against new defensive looks, but you just knew this game was not gonna be a defensive slugfest and once they got going, both teams moved the ball pretty well. I thought the refs kinda sucked: in those first few drives they really let the teams batter each other when it seemed like both sides were looking to the refs to establish the parameters of the game. The refs failed to do that and then randomly called pass interference through the game. I thought the refs were fairly even, but Clemson had a TD called back in the 3rd quarter for what I thought was a bogus pass interference that might have sparked something. That said, this game turned out about right, the score was a little lower than I thought it would be, largely because the offenses started slow and then Clemson got frustrated by the 4th quarter and mostly just spun their wheels. LSU was really good, man, Joe Burrow was a mathematician out there all season long and he was again in the Final. (I guess I expect Clemson to start #1 next season with Alabama and Ohio State right behind them; wouldn't be surprised if that's your Final Four, along with Oklahoma, next year)
Right (24)
(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
(4) Oklahoma 28-63 (1) LSU
(3) Clemson 29-23 (2) Ohio State
(5) Georgia 26-14 (7) Baylor
(6) Oregon 28-27 (8) Wisconsin
(9) Florida 36-28 (24) Virginia
(17) Memphis 39-53 (10) Penn State
(14) Michigan 16-35 (13) Alabama
(15) Notre Dame 33-9 Iowa State
Boston College 6-20 (21) Cincinnati
(22) Southern Cal 24-49 (16) Iowa
(20) Appalachian State 31-17 UAB
(23) Navy 20-17 Kansas State
(25) Oklahoma State 21-24 Texas A&M
Boston College 6-20 (21) Cincinnati
(22) Southern Cal 24-49 (16) Iowa
(20) Appalachian State 31-17 UAB
(23) Navy 20-17 Kansas State
(25) Oklahoma State 21-24 Texas A&M
Buffalo 31-9 Charlotte
BYU 34-38 Hawaii
Louisiana Tech 14-0 Miami
Pittsburgh 34-30 Eastern Michigan
Pittsburgh 34-30 Eastern Michigan
North Carolina 55-13 Temple
Western Kentucky 23-20 Western Michigan
Virginia Tech 30-37 Kentucky
Florida State 14-20 Arizona State
Florida State 14-20 Arizona State
Louisiana 27-17 Miami (OH)
California 35-20 Illinois
Wrong (17)
(11) Utah 10-38 Texas
(18) Minnesota 31-24 (12) Auburn
Utah State 41-51 Kent State
Central Michigan 11-48 San Diego State
Liberty 23-16 Georgia Southern
SMU 28-52 Florida Atlantic
California 35-20 Illinois
Florida Int'l 26-34 Arkansas State
Michigan State 27-21 Wake ForestAir Force 31-21 Washington State
Mississippi State 28-38 Louisville
Wyoming 38-17 Georgia State
Indiana 22-23 Tennessee
Ohio 30-21 Nevada
Southern Mississippi 13-30 Tulane
Alcorn State 44-64 North Carolina A&T
Central Florida 48-25 Marshall
No spreads, just winners. I did pretty good picking the ranked teams--the only two I missed were another shocking upset by Texas and Minnesota sticking it to Auburn (which I would have loved to have picked!). Of the unranked teams...I dunno...total crapshoot and I didn't fare all that well. Oh well, already looking forward to next year.
Monday, January 13, 2020
2019-20 NCAA Championship
(3) Clemson - (1) LSU (-6) (o/u 70)
LSU was the best team I saw all year long. Ohio State was second but Clemson beat them and I wasn't shocked by that because Clemson is always hard to figure (though it just dawned on me today that their QB, Trevor Lawrence, is so far still undefeated as a college QB, with one more full season to play). The way Clemson dusted off Alabama last year was eye-opening, which is why I refuse to overlook them this time around. But I saw LSU a lot this season and they looked confidently dominant against everyone they played and their QB, Joe Burrow, is a machine back there, a guy who seemingly knows every play before it happens. The only Clemson game I paid much attention to was their hamfisted lucky W against North Carolina (who was okay this year but nothing special), though to their credit they played like a team that glimpsed their own mortality for the rest of the season. Should be a good game.
I think LSU is going to score a lot. Clemson's D certainly doesn't suck but LSU moved the ball on Alabama and Auburn and Georgia with ease and I expect they'll do the same to Clemson. I'd be surprised if they scored less than 30 points. Clemson's offense is very good, too, and I expect them to move the ball, but I don't think they played a defense as good as LSU's until they ran into Ohio State in the semifinal; they struggled against the Buckeyes until the 4th quarter when they finally got a sense of urgency and pulled out all the stops and rode it to a victory. LSU's defense is not as great as usual, but then again they traditionally haven't had big leads by halftime before either, so I'm willing to chalk up a lot of garbage time/prevent play that gives up yards and even points. Clemson cannot afford to wait til the 4th quarter to wake up tonight, though I wouldn't be surprised if that offense cranks up late regardless of the circumstances.
The next two #1 picks (Joe Burrow, 2020; Trevor Lawrence, 2021) will be in display and that is a good thing. This is the game we've been waiting for all year long (with apologies to the Buckeyes) and I'm looking forward to it--the kinda game that makes me wish I had cable!
I think the halftime score will be something like LSU 30-17. From there I would expect Clemson to charge furiously in the 2nd half, but come up short. I'll say LSU 54-45 (LSU and the over--waaaaay over).
LSU was the best team I saw all year long. Ohio State was second but Clemson beat them and I wasn't shocked by that because Clemson is always hard to figure (though it just dawned on me today that their QB, Trevor Lawrence, is so far still undefeated as a college QB, with one more full season to play). The way Clemson dusted off Alabama last year was eye-opening, which is why I refuse to overlook them this time around. But I saw LSU a lot this season and they looked confidently dominant against everyone they played and their QB, Joe Burrow, is a machine back there, a guy who seemingly knows every play before it happens. The only Clemson game I paid much attention to was their hamfisted lucky W against North Carolina (who was okay this year but nothing special), though to their credit they played like a team that glimpsed their own mortality for the rest of the season. Should be a good game.
I think LSU is going to score a lot. Clemson's D certainly doesn't suck but LSU moved the ball on Alabama and Auburn and Georgia with ease and I expect they'll do the same to Clemson. I'd be surprised if they scored less than 30 points. Clemson's offense is very good, too, and I expect them to move the ball, but I don't think they played a defense as good as LSU's until they ran into Ohio State in the semifinal; they struggled against the Buckeyes until the 4th quarter when they finally got a sense of urgency and pulled out all the stops and rode it to a victory. LSU's defense is not as great as usual, but then again they traditionally haven't had big leads by halftime before either, so I'm willing to chalk up a lot of garbage time/prevent play that gives up yards and even points. Clemson cannot afford to wait til the 4th quarter to wake up tonight, though I wouldn't be surprised if that offense cranks up late regardless of the circumstances.
The next two #1 picks (Joe Burrow, 2020; Trevor Lawrence, 2021) will be in display and that is a good thing. This is the game we've been waiting for all year long (with apologies to the Buckeyes) and I'm looking forward to it--the kinda game that makes me wish I had cable!
I think the halftime score will be something like LSU 30-17. From there I would expect Clemson to charge furiously in the 2nd half, but come up short. I'll say LSU 54-45 (LSU and the over--waaaaay over).
Friday, January 10, 2020
2019-20 NFL Divisional Round
Last week's games:
Bills 19-22 (OT) Texans
Kudos to the Bills for an exciting season (and fingers crossed, Bills fans: Brady and Pats seem to be at an impasse) but that 4th quarter meltdown was ominous. For three quarters you'd say the Bills were workmanlike, not flashy, but getting it done and that the Texans are playing their worst game of the season. Then that flipped quickly late in the 3rd quarter and the Bills closed out the game utterly shellshocked. (Dude, in the 4th quarter and beyond Josh Allen looked like he was already back in the hotel room thinking back on this game; kinda shocked he was able to drive down for the tying FG because he seemed a million miles away) Good win for the Texans, DeShaun Watson looked like the badass his rookie season hinted at.
Titans 20-13 Pats
The Titans ran ran ran all over the Pats but still couldn't score points and always managed to stall when they desperately needed a knockout blow. But, the Pats offense never got going and the Titans were able to squelch out any move forward for Tom Brady. Good W for the Titans, hard fought, they won in the trenches and by manipulating the rules--a most Belichickian way to seize the victory. The Pats had one of their worst seasons in ages and it feels like some turmoil may be on the way.
Vikings 26-20 (OT) Saints
I really thought the Saints offense was gonna find its footing but it never did, credit the Vikings tenacious D and their big play ability to stretch drives. The Saints have been bounced prematurely more often than not in the last decade even though that homefield advantage feels as strong as anyone in the league. Weird. The Vikings are a smart team, they do the little things and showed more big play ability than I ever would've thought. Good win for the Vikings and they could be dangerous going forward.
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
Once Carson Wentz went out (*), the Eagles offense struggled and that pretty much doomed them in this game. The Seahawks were okay but not spectacular and managed to do just enough to hold on to the W. Meh, really thought the Seahawks should've dominated this game or at least controlled it--this finished as a one score game.
Coming up:
Vikings @ Niners (-7) (o/u 46)
This is gonna be close. The Vikings are a solid team on both sides, nothing will come easy against them. The Niners are good and getting better and can hang with anyone, but they haven't been here before. I'll take the Niners to pull it out late at home but I've got the Vikings to cover. I'll say Niners 24-21 (Vikings and the under)
Titans @ Ravens (-10) (o/u 48.5)
I don't see the Titans winning this but there is an argument that they can slow the game down by running non-stop and not turning it over to keep the score close. But I just think the Ravens are too good on both sides of the ball and even if the Titans play their best game, I still think the Ravens bust it open by the 4th quarter. I'll say Ravens 37-20 (Ravens and the over)
Texans @ Chiefs (-9) o/u 49)
Like the Titans, I see no path for the Texans to do anything more than keep it close....and I don't even see that happening. The Chiefs were a bit lackluster this season but managed to go 12-4, so hard to say they're disappointing. I think the Chiefs jump out early and keep piling it on. I'll say Chiefs 41-16 (Chiefs and the over).
Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) (o/u 46)
Could be a slopfest but that might be kinda fun, Rodgers and Russell slinging it around promises an invigorating 4th quarter. The Packers are good but inconsistent, the Seahawks are tenacious if a bit lesser on talent. This is the most likely to go to OT, wouldn't you say? I like the Packers to win it late. Packers 24-21 (Seahawks and the under).
(*) Correct me if I'm wrong, but on both of Wentz's notable injuries he was diving forward trying to make a play. If you think he should be less aggressive, okay, that's a reasonable suggestion for his longevity; but if you're trying to say that he's a wuss or injury-prone, I don't think that's fair at all and I'm kinda blown away than anyone would bother to have such a small-minded opinion.
Bills 19-22 (OT) Texans
Kudos to the Bills for an exciting season (and fingers crossed, Bills fans: Brady and Pats seem to be at an impasse) but that 4th quarter meltdown was ominous. For three quarters you'd say the Bills were workmanlike, not flashy, but getting it done and that the Texans are playing their worst game of the season. Then that flipped quickly late in the 3rd quarter and the Bills closed out the game utterly shellshocked. (Dude, in the 4th quarter and beyond Josh Allen looked like he was already back in the hotel room thinking back on this game; kinda shocked he was able to drive down for the tying FG because he seemed a million miles away) Good win for the Texans, DeShaun Watson looked like the badass his rookie season hinted at.
Titans 20-13 Pats
The Titans ran ran ran all over the Pats but still couldn't score points and always managed to stall when they desperately needed a knockout blow. But, the Pats offense never got going and the Titans were able to squelch out any move forward for Tom Brady. Good W for the Titans, hard fought, they won in the trenches and by manipulating the rules--a most Belichickian way to seize the victory. The Pats had one of their worst seasons in ages and it feels like some turmoil may be on the way.
Vikings 26-20 (OT) Saints
I really thought the Saints offense was gonna find its footing but it never did, credit the Vikings tenacious D and their big play ability to stretch drives. The Saints have been bounced prematurely more often than not in the last decade even though that homefield advantage feels as strong as anyone in the league. Weird. The Vikings are a smart team, they do the little things and showed more big play ability than I ever would've thought. Good win for the Vikings and they could be dangerous going forward.
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
Once Carson Wentz went out (*), the Eagles offense struggled and that pretty much doomed them in this game. The Seahawks were okay but not spectacular and managed to do just enough to hold on to the W. Meh, really thought the Seahawks should've dominated this game or at least controlled it--this finished as a one score game.
Coming up:
Vikings @ Niners (-7) (o/u 46)
This is gonna be close. The Vikings are a solid team on both sides, nothing will come easy against them. The Niners are good and getting better and can hang with anyone, but they haven't been here before. I'll take the Niners to pull it out late at home but I've got the Vikings to cover. I'll say Niners 24-21 (Vikings and the under)
Titans @ Ravens (-10) (o/u 48.5)
I don't see the Titans winning this but there is an argument that they can slow the game down by running non-stop and not turning it over to keep the score close. But I just think the Ravens are too good on both sides of the ball and even if the Titans play their best game, I still think the Ravens bust it open by the 4th quarter. I'll say Ravens 37-20 (Ravens and the over)
Texans @ Chiefs (-9) o/u 49)
Like the Titans, I see no path for the Texans to do anything more than keep it close....and I don't even see that happening. The Chiefs were a bit lackluster this season but managed to go 12-4, so hard to say they're disappointing. I think the Chiefs jump out early and keep piling it on. I'll say Chiefs 41-16 (Chiefs and the over).
Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) (o/u 46)
Could be a slopfest but that might be kinda fun, Rodgers and Russell slinging it around promises an invigorating 4th quarter. The Packers are good but inconsistent, the Seahawks are tenacious if a bit lesser on talent. This is the most likely to go to OT, wouldn't you say? I like the Packers to win it late. Packers 24-21 (Seahawks and the under).
(*) Correct me if I'm wrong, but on both of Wentz's notable injuries he was diving forward trying to make a play. If you think he should be less aggressive, okay, that's a reasonable suggestion for his longevity; but if you're trying to say that he's a wuss or injury-prone, I don't think that's fair at all and I'm kinda blown away than anyone would bother to have such a small-minded opinion.
Thursday, January 9, 2020
Pointless NBA Trade Idea
Heat get: Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Christian Wood (1yr/$1.6m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.5m, player option next season); Pistons get: Meyers Leonard (1yr/$11.2), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.1m)
I kinda think D-Rose can be great with this fast-moving, no-position Heat team that are well-positioned for the playoffs and Morris should fit, too (though the Heat would probably rather have Marcus Morris, but, hey, they look alike...that's worth something, right?). As for Wood, I've always kinda liked him but it doesn't seem like he's really ever gonna play in this league, so I'm assuming he'd get cut (unless the Heat can make room for him by finally getting rid of Dion Waiters...?). Leonard gives the Heat minutes but...nothing else. I don't know what's up with Okpala, I haven't noticed him getting any playing time or any time in the G-League, so not sure what the Heat think of him.
As for the Pistons...ehhh....man, it doesn't matter what they do. Leonard would give them minutes for the rest of the year and then cap space in the summer. If Okpala is a keeper, then great, they'd keep him. Getting off Rose (Reggie Jax should be on his way back) and Morris would at least give them a little more flexibility in the summer. But...ehhh...it doesn't matter. If Blake Griffin can't play then this squad has absolutely nowhere to go and no money to spend, so....it doesn't matter, nothing matters. That Chicago and Cleveland are both somehow even worse is the only thing that even makes it look like Detroit is competing. Are they better off with Rose and Morris? It doesn't matter.
This isn't exactly the master stroke that puts the Heat over the top (that would have to involve getting rid of James Johnson and/or Waiters), but Rose off the bench and Morris in the rotation just makes them thicker and an even tougher out in the post-season. I don't see this team coming out of the East but I could see them beating somebody they're not supposed to beat. As for the Pistons, it doesn't matter, nothing matters.
I kinda think D-Rose can be great with this fast-moving, no-position Heat team that are well-positioned for the playoffs and Morris should fit, too (though the Heat would probably rather have Marcus Morris, but, hey, they look alike...that's worth something, right?). As for Wood, I've always kinda liked him but it doesn't seem like he's really ever gonna play in this league, so I'm assuming he'd get cut (unless the Heat can make room for him by finally getting rid of Dion Waiters...?). Leonard gives the Heat minutes but...nothing else. I don't know what's up with Okpala, I haven't noticed him getting any playing time or any time in the G-League, so not sure what the Heat think of him.
As for the Pistons...ehhh....man, it doesn't matter what they do. Leonard would give them minutes for the rest of the year and then cap space in the summer. If Okpala is a keeper, then great, they'd keep him. Getting off Rose (Reggie Jax should be on his way back) and Morris would at least give them a little more flexibility in the summer. But...ehhh...it doesn't matter. If Blake Griffin can't play then this squad has absolutely nowhere to go and no money to spend, so....it doesn't matter, nothing matters. That Chicago and Cleveland are both somehow even worse is the only thing that even makes it look like Detroit is competing. Are they better off with Rose and Morris? It doesn't matter.
This isn't exactly the master stroke that puts the Heat over the top (that would have to involve getting rid of James Johnson and/or Waiters), but Rose off the bench and Morris in the rotation just makes them thicker and an even tougher out in the post-season. I don't see this team coming out of the East but I could see them beating somebody they're not supposed to beat. As for the Pistons, it doesn't matter, nothing matters.
Pointless NBA Trade Idea
Okay, right off the bat: last summer's whirlwind of trades and signings may have felt like the way of things to come, but I'd say quite the opposite. The players that moved were generally so high profile, so expensive that it more or less calcified the labor market probably through next summer. I'd be pretty surprised if we see many moves at this year's trade deadline because the buyers and sellers just aren't in sync at the moment. The teams that want to dump salary don't want to take salary back and the teams that want to thicken their rotations don't have the cap space or trade assets to make moves. In short, no one's got much room to move this season.
But it seems to me there is a potential method that could emerge: teams with lots of cap space could take on long-term salary instead of waiting for the summer to dig into the free agent class, which doesn't look so strong this year. So with that in mind:
Hawks get
Andrew Wiggins (4yr/$121m), Gorgui Dieng (2yr/$33.5m), Wolves 2020 and 2021 2nd rd picks; Wolves get Chandler Parsons (1yr/$25.1m), Allen Crabbe (1yr/$18.5m)
This is a long-term vs. short-term deal. This gets the Wolves off two big contracts and allows them to start rebuilding around a core of Towns, Culver, Okogie and Covington (who I would hold on to even though he'll likely be one of the hottest rumors out there). Obviously getting off Wiggins would be divisive but it'd save them a ton of money and giving up on a playoff run (eh, is there really any value in being 8th in the West?) would push them up toward a top five pick (is Daniel Oturu (Minnesota) a good fit?). So how do they re-build this summer? Well, the free agency market looks pretty skimpy, but Mike Conley has an ETO in Utah (where he hasn't been a good fit), which feels like a great vet to pair with Town for a year or two and if they could lure Evan Fournier to decline his option in Orlando, then right away they'd have something seemingly more reliable than what they've had with Wiggins and Teague (whom I'd trade for anything resembling a 2020 1st rd pick). Make no mistake: for Minnesota this is purely a salary dump but it would dump an awful lot of salary!
The thing about the Hawks is that their cap for next year is so small that they kinda have to spend money. So even if you think Wiggins is a bust and 4 years at that price is a boondoggle, that don't matter to the Hawks, they just need to lay some money out there. And personally I think Wiggins is actually a pretty good fit for them: he's been through the media ringer already and though his production leaves a lot to be desired, he's gonna play a ton of minutes in the next four years and the Hawks needs minutes. Going forward he slides right into the Vince Carter slot. As for Dieng, he's another player that I find criminally underrated (I think Coach Thibodeau pretty much knee-capped his career) and that deal is not as bad as it looks--and, again, the Hawks got money to burn so who cares? Bring back Alex Len and that becomes the Hawks platoon at PF/C to back Collins and Fernando. As for the two 2nd rd picks, the Hawks need everything they can get and the Wolves get so much cap relief that it's worth it.
Obviously the Wolves don't do this is they truly love Wiggins (and I suspect they do) and even still it leaves them a lot of holes to plug in the off-season. But at least it gives them some money to make moves and clears out room for vets that like the look of Towns. As for the Hawks, they need everything and Wiggins, expensive as he is, will at least check SF off their list for the foreseeable future and adds reliable athleticism to an exciting but young team and I think Dieng (more of a baseline shooter type) meshes well with Collins and platoons nicely with Fernando. And it gets the Hawks up off the salary floor (oh yeah, they'd still have a shit ton of money to spend).
The idea here is for the Hawks to use their expiring contracts to get long-term depth and for the Wolves to get off their long-term commitments to get a new crew around Towns. I dunno, seems like it could work.
But it seems to me there is a potential method that could emerge: teams with lots of cap space could take on long-term salary instead of waiting for the summer to dig into the free agent class, which doesn't look so strong this year. So with that in mind:
Hawks get
Andrew Wiggins (4yr/$121m), Gorgui Dieng (2yr/$33.5m), Wolves 2020 and 2021 2nd rd picks; Wolves get Chandler Parsons (1yr/$25.1m), Allen Crabbe (1yr/$18.5m)
This is a long-term vs. short-term deal. This gets the Wolves off two big contracts and allows them to start rebuilding around a core of Towns, Culver, Okogie and Covington (who I would hold on to even though he'll likely be one of the hottest rumors out there). Obviously getting off Wiggins would be divisive but it'd save them a ton of money and giving up on a playoff run (eh, is there really any value in being 8th in the West?) would push them up toward a top five pick (is Daniel Oturu (Minnesota) a good fit?). So how do they re-build this summer? Well, the free agency market looks pretty skimpy, but Mike Conley has an ETO in Utah (where he hasn't been a good fit), which feels like a great vet to pair with Town for a year or two and if they could lure Evan Fournier to decline his option in Orlando, then right away they'd have something seemingly more reliable than what they've had with Wiggins and Teague (whom I'd trade for anything resembling a 2020 1st rd pick). Make no mistake: for Minnesota this is purely a salary dump but it would dump an awful lot of salary!
The thing about the Hawks is that their cap for next year is so small that they kinda have to spend money. So even if you think Wiggins is a bust and 4 years at that price is a boondoggle, that don't matter to the Hawks, they just need to lay some money out there. And personally I think Wiggins is actually a pretty good fit for them: he's been through the media ringer already and though his production leaves a lot to be desired, he's gonna play a ton of minutes in the next four years and the Hawks needs minutes. Going forward he slides right into the Vince Carter slot. As for Dieng, he's another player that I find criminally underrated (I think Coach Thibodeau pretty much knee-capped his career) and that deal is not as bad as it looks--and, again, the Hawks got money to burn so who cares? Bring back Alex Len and that becomes the Hawks platoon at PF/C to back Collins and Fernando. As for the two 2nd rd picks, the Hawks need everything they can get and the Wolves get so much cap relief that it's worth it.
Obviously the Wolves don't do this is they truly love Wiggins (and I suspect they do) and even still it leaves them a lot of holes to plug in the off-season. But at least it gives them some money to make moves and clears out room for vets that like the look of Towns. As for the Hawks, they need everything and Wiggins, expensive as he is, will at least check SF off their list for the foreseeable future and adds reliable athleticism to an exciting but young team and I think Dieng (more of a baseline shooter type) meshes well with Collins and platoons nicely with Fernando. And it gets the Hawks up off the salary floor (oh yeah, they'd still have a shit ton of money to spend).
The idea here is for the Hawks to use their expiring contracts to get long-term depth and for the Wolves to get off their long-term commitments to get a new crew around Towns. I dunno, seems like it could work.
Friday, December 13, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 15)
Conference Championship Week
(To start off by tooting my own horn, I went 8 for 8 in my Pick 'Em league this week. Yeah, 7 of the 8 faves won their games (sorry, Utah) but I don't have too many perfect weeks in my years of doing this so horn tooting is in order)
Games I saw some of:
(1) Ohio State 34-21 (8) Wisconsin
The thing about Ohio State is that they're probably the most consistent, reliable squad out there...except that against Penn State and Wisconsin they did nothing in the 1st half, then dominated the 2nd half. Dominating the 2nd half is nice but if they fall too far behind Clemson or LSU, they'll find it tough to get back in it, I think. I was cool with them moving to #1 a few weeks back and I'm just as cool with them falling to #2 going into the playoff. Clemson is gonna be tough--should be a great game!
(4) Georgia 10-37 (2) Louisiana State
Yeah, UGA gave a game effort but they just could not move the ball (dropped passes were a luxury they could not afford) and when LSU got going, they rolled without much effort. Dang, dude, LSU is really good this year, and while I think their typically rock solid defense is kinda rickety, that offense is just about perfect. I think they'll pummel Oklahoma and the Clemson/Ohio State winner will make for an intriguing Final.
(17) Virginia 17-62 (3) Clemson
Didn't watch much but I gotta say I was way more impressed with UVA than I expected to be. They hung in there and had a coupla nice drives early and though they didn't come close to covering the 28-point spread, did anyone think there were going to? Clemson plays such a soft schedule every year that it's virtually impossible to tell how good they are. Last year I didn't think they could hang with Alabama but I wasn't sure...until the Final started and Bama was utterly powerless against them. Can they do that again? I think they can do that to Ohio State and while I'm skeptical they can beat LSU, I don't know that for sure. We won't know til they suit up and hit the field.
(7) Baylor 23-30 (OT) (6) Oklahoma
Man, Baylor just kept losing QBs but they still generally looked like the better team until OT, when they really just had no shot. Oklahoma has a nice offense but that defense has yet to impress and even though it feels like Jalen Hurts ought to be enough to put them in the discussion, I just don't see them winning two more games, as they are a distant 4th place going into the playoff. (LISTEN UP: if Oklahoma doesn't look like they can even come close to hanging with the top 3, then there is absolutely no need for an 8-team playoff! Four teams is perfect, don't mess with perfection!)
(20) Cincinnati 24-29 (17) Memphis
Fun game actually, really thought Cincy would pull it out. Both squads had their moments but Memphis did well to come out on top.
Games I saw none of:
(5) Utah 15-37 (13) Oregon
Could've watched it, just forgot. If Utah had won they would've had a good shot at getting that #4 seed (and getting slaughtered by LSU) but Oregon's offense showed up and controlled the game throughout.
Hawaii 10-31 (19) Boise State
Saw none of either of these teams but Boise State hung around the top 20 so I had at least a little bit of familiarity with them. Score looks about right to me.
Louisiana 38-45 (21) Appalachian State
I've liked App all year long, they're wily and they can score. Those Louisiana schools always have good QBs and WRs but I figured App had the firepower to hang.
My final rankings:
(1) Louisiana State (Dude, that offense is unstoppable, Burrow has perfect touch and knows exactly where to go with the ball every time. I think they'll destroy Oklahoma)
(2) Ohio State (Very workmanlike team, big talent all over the field, they move the ball and they attack on defense at a high level, still has big play ability while nailing down the little things, they're gonna be a tough out for anyone)
(3) Clemson (Maybe #2, might throttle the Buckeyes, I dunno, we'll see. After last year's thrashing of Bama, I'm not turning my back on these guys no matter how that soft schedule is, but I got to put them behind the Buckeyes because I saw the Buckeyes beat decent teams and I didn't see that from Clemson)
(4) Alabama (Yeah, things didn't come together for them this year, devastating injury to their star QB, defense wasn't as great as usual and LSU was a buzzsaw. But if they were put in this playoff, I'd give them a better shot than anyone else--yeah, crappiest Bama season in a decade but don't get it twisted: I'd take them to beat Oklahoma or Georgia even with a 3rd string QB)
(5) Georgia (Not so much an SEC homer as a non-believer in Oklahoma. Head to head I'd give them at least a puncher's chance against OU)
(6) Oklahoma (Good but should be better, the defense is not good, the offense isn't as good as it ought to be. I was not blown away by their effort against Baylor and I do not like their chances moving forward)
(7) Wisconsin (Classic Badger team, big boys up front that can move the ball, stingy defense, up against a sneaky good Buckeye squad this season)
(8) Oregon (Not bad but inconsistent enough to drop behind the SEC and Big 10 also-rans)
(9) Nobody. Utah had their chance and blew it, Baylor was spent by the end of the year, Florida was not that great, Penn State was okay but nothing special, Auburn had ups and downs but a lot of teams did, Minnesota had moments of impressing me but not enough to really matter, Notre Dame and Michigan were fine but nothing superlative. If I had to pick a #9 (which I most certainly do not), I'd probably take App State, they showed up more than the teams above did (most of whom were only marginally better--if at all--than Texas A&M).
It was a really good college football season. There was at least one really good game every weekend this year and I gotta give a shout-out to how consistently compelling the action was throughout. After all that, I'm as convinced as ever that an 8-team playoff is absolutely unnecessary (though obviously inevitable).
I get it: the playoff is made for TV and the TV simply wants more games because people would watch (yeah, *sigh*, I'd watch) but if you add teams thinking that Boise State or Central Florida will get the shot they deserve, I think you're mistaken. An 8-team playoff would get the 3rd best SEC team--and deservedly so!--rather than making room for smaller conferences, which only means that an 8-team playoffs would quickly become a 16-team playoff, which would be even more unnecessary. I know you think 8 teams would open it up to more teams but I think it would do the exact opposite: it would cement the top 10 programs and everyone else would get pushed further to the margins.
Also, here's a weird rant: I'm tired of the "Targeting" penalty. I'm not saying get rid of it but I'm actually really impressed with how well (for the most part) players have so quickly morphed to meet the change in rules, so impressed that a further tweaking of the rule is worth considering. To wit: 1) it's never called on the offense, as if defenders are always fault and aren't deserving of the same safety considerations, which is simply not true--and likely to get even less true as coaches train runners to be more aggressive!; and 2) the sheer name of it suggests a malicious intent that is often not the case. If we're trying to tone down the malice then the rulings need to become more fair to all the players and not simply favor the ball carriers. I get the rule but, again, I think the kids have adapted extremely well considering it's the antithesis of what they've been taught to do all their lives. And continuing to punish defenders for doing their jobs as if they're the only ones at fault needs to change.
(To start off by tooting my own horn, I went 8 for 8 in my Pick 'Em league this week. Yeah, 7 of the 8 faves won their games (sorry, Utah) but I don't have too many perfect weeks in my years of doing this so horn tooting is in order)
Games I saw some of:
(1) Ohio State 34-21 (8) Wisconsin
The thing about Ohio State is that they're probably the most consistent, reliable squad out there...except that against Penn State and Wisconsin they did nothing in the 1st half, then dominated the 2nd half. Dominating the 2nd half is nice but if they fall too far behind Clemson or LSU, they'll find it tough to get back in it, I think. I was cool with them moving to #1 a few weeks back and I'm just as cool with them falling to #2 going into the playoff. Clemson is gonna be tough--should be a great game!
(4) Georgia 10-37 (2) Louisiana State
Yeah, UGA gave a game effort but they just could not move the ball (dropped passes were a luxury they could not afford) and when LSU got going, they rolled without much effort. Dang, dude, LSU is really good this year, and while I think their typically rock solid defense is kinda rickety, that offense is just about perfect. I think they'll pummel Oklahoma and the Clemson/Ohio State winner will make for an intriguing Final.
(17) Virginia 17-62 (3) Clemson
Didn't watch much but I gotta say I was way more impressed with UVA than I expected to be. They hung in there and had a coupla nice drives early and though they didn't come close to covering the 28-point spread, did anyone think there were going to? Clemson plays such a soft schedule every year that it's virtually impossible to tell how good they are. Last year I didn't think they could hang with Alabama but I wasn't sure...until the Final started and Bama was utterly powerless against them. Can they do that again? I think they can do that to Ohio State and while I'm skeptical they can beat LSU, I don't know that for sure. We won't know til they suit up and hit the field.
(7) Baylor 23-30 (OT) (6) Oklahoma
Man, Baylor just kept losing QBs but they still generally looked like the better team until OT, when they really just had no shot. Oklahoma has a nice offense but that defense has yet to impress and even though it feels like Jalen Hurts ought to be enough to put them in the discussion, I just don't see them winning two more games, as they are a distant 4th place going into the playoff. (LISTEN UP: if Oklahoma doesn't look like they can even come close to hanging with the top 3, then there is absolutely no need for an 8-team playoff! Four teams is perfect, don't mess with perfection!)
(20) Cincinnati 24-29 (17) Memphis
Fun game actually, really thought Cincy would pull it out. Both squads had their moments but Memphis did well to come out on top.
Games I saw none of:
(5) Utah 15-37 (13) Oregon
Could've watched it, just forgot. If Utah had won they would've had a good shot at getting that #4 seed (and getting slaughtered by LSU) but Oregon's offense showed up and controlled the game throughout.
Hawaii 10-31 (19) Boise State
Saw none of either of these teams but Boise State hung around the top 20 so I had at least a little bit of familiarity with them. Score looks about right to me.
Louisiana 38-45 (21) Appalachian State
I've liked App all year long, they're wily and they can score. Those Louisiana schools always have good QBs and WRs but I figured App had the firepower to hang.
My final rankings:
(1) Louisiana State (Dude, that offense is unstoppable, Burrow has perfect touch and knows exactly where to go with the ball every time. I think they'll destroy Oklahoma)
(2) Ohio State (Very workmanlike team, big talent all over the field, they move the ball and they attack on defense at a high level, still has big play ability while nailing down the little things, they're gonna be a tough out for anyone)
(3) Clemson (Maybe #2, might throttle the Buckeyes, I dunno, we'll see. After last year's thrashing of Bama, I'm not turning my back on these guys no matter how that soft schedule is, but I got to put them behind the Buckeyes because I saw the Buckeyes beat decent teams and I didn't see that from Clemson)
(4) Alabama (Yeah, things didn't come together for them this year, devastating injury to their star QB, defense wasn't as great as usual and LSU was a buzzsaw. But if they were put in this playoff, I'd give them a better shot than anyone else--yeah, crappiest Bama season in a decade but don't get it twisted: I'd take them to beat Oklahoma or Georgia even with a 3rd string QB)
(5) Georgia (Not so much an SEC homer as a non-believer in Oklahoma. Head to head I'd give them at least a puncher's chance against OU)
(6) Oklahoma (Good but should be better, the defense is not good, the offense isn't as good as it ought to be. I was not blown away by their effort against Baylor and I do not like their chances moving forward)
(7) Wisconsin (Classic Badger team, big boys up front that can move the ball, stingy defense, up against a sneaky good Buckeye squad this season)
(8) Oregon (Not bad but inconsistent enough to drop behind the SEC and Big 10 also-rans)
(9) Nobody. Utah had their chance and blew it, Baylor was spent by the end of the year, Florida was not that great, Penn State was okay but nothing special, Auburn had ups and downs but a lot of teams did, Minnesota had moments of impressing me but not enough to really matter, Notre Dame and Michigan were fine but nothing superlative. If I had to pick a #9 (which I most certainly do not), I'd probably take App State, they showed up more than the teams above did (most of whom were only marginally better--if at all--than Texas A&M).
It was a really good college football season. There was at least one really good game every weekend this year and I gotta give a shout-out to how consistently compelling the action was throughout. After all that, I'm as convinced as ever that an 8-team playoff is absolutely unnecessary (though obviously inevitable).
I get it: the playoff is made for TV and the TV simply wants more games because people would watch (yeah, *sigh*, I'd watch) but if you add teams thinking that Boise State or Central Florida will get the shot they deserve, I think you're mistaken. An 8-team playoff would get the 3rd best SEC team--and deservedly so!--rather than making room for smaller conferences, which only means that an 8-team playoffs would quickly become a 16-team playoff, which would be even more unnecessary. I know you think 8 teams would open it up to more teams but I think it would do the exact opposite: it would cement the top 10 programs and everyone else would get pushed further to the margins.
Also, here's a weird rant: I'm tired of the "Targeting" penalty. I'm not saying get rid of it but I'm actually really impressed with how well (for the most part) players have so quickly morphed to meet the change in rules, so impressed that a further tweaking of the rule is worth considering. To wit: 1) it's never called on the offense, as if defenders are always fault and aren't deserving of the same safety considerations, which is simply not true--and likely to get even less true as coaches train runners to be more aggressive!; and 2) the sheer name of it suggests a malicious intent that is often not the case. If we're trying to tone down the malice then the rulings need to become more fair to all the players and not simply favor the ball carriers. I get the rule but, again, I think the kids have adapted extremely well considering it's the antithesis of what they've been taught to do all their lives. And continuing to punish defenders for doing their jobs as if they're the only ones at fault needs to change.
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
2019-20 NFL (Week 12)
Games I saw (some of):
Steelers 16-10 Bengals
In the 3rd quarter the Steelers benched 2nd string QB Mason Rudolph for 3rd string QB Devlin Hodges; Hodges had one perfect pass that went for a long TD and that was pretty much the game. Make no mistake outside of one play, Hodges was no better (or different, really) from Rudolph but he gets the W. The Bengals, on the other hand, are still playing their 2nd string QB (uh....I can't remember the dude's name) because they benched Andy Dalton weeks ago, though while watching this game seemed to me it was great time to bring Dalton back to spark the team to a W. Turns out the Bengals don't really wanna win, so they fumbled away a perfectly winnable game against their dreaded rivals. (News: Dalton's gonna start next week....why? What's the point of bringing him back now? *smh*) The Steelers have a good pass rush, solid LB's and a good secondary, which might be good enough to steal some W's (especially as the weather turns wintery) even though that offense is pretty bad right now. The Bengals are playing for the #1 pick and since I live in Bengals TV territory, I'd very much prefer they just forfeited the upcoming games so I could watch something else!
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
The Seahawks scored their two TD's on a long pass play and a breakaway run, otherwise their offense didn't really do much. And even though the Eagles never seemed in this game, it was still winnable late. The Eagles ought to be better, I don't understand why they've struggled but their schedule gets easier so wouldn't be surprised to see them get hot late. The Seahawks are a smart team and they're gonna be a tough out for anyone come playoff time.
Cowboys 9-13 Patriots
4th down late inside the Pats' 10 yard line, down by 7, the Cowboys go for a FG...why? What good is a FG in that situation? Getting stopped and pinning the Pats down on their own goal line is not a terrible outcome there. You know, the Pats didn't exactly blow the Cowboys out. Take out the blocked punt and another Cowboy turnover that led to an FG and the Pats...uh...didn't hardly do anything in this match. Yeah, I'm officially on the Garret's-gotta-go bandwagon. I typically don't fancy myself an expert on football coaching but there was a chance for the Cowboys to win this game and the coach kept them from doing that and that is unforgivable. The Pats have a really good D and Brady is still capable but that offense is not classic, I can see them getting smoked in the playoffs.
Packers 8-37 Niners
Wow. I'm in on the Niners now. The Niners casually piled up points but right before halftime they stole an extra TD and an extra FG and you could tell right then that the Packers got snookered and the Niners were the better and smarter team. Rodgers tried to get it going in the 2nd half but the Niners came right back with a long TD (beautiful roll out by Garoppolo and the perfect placement on the pass) and, man, it was over. Packers mailed in the rest of the game. The Niners are good, man, they're looking at a bye in the playoffs; Packers are solid, I expect them to be there and to be dangerous in the post-season.
Games I didn't see (surprised by result):
Bucs 35-22 Falcons
Just when the Falcons started to look like the team they should've been all year long, they get rolled at home by a so-so division opponent led by Jameis Winston. WTF? The Bucs are kinda fun, they throw the ball around with abandon but they're not built to win games and their off-season revolves around what to do at QB.
Raiders 3-34 Jets
The Raiders were getting going, felt like the Jets were gonna be easy pickins'...uh, not so much. The Jets have been ballin' out lately, feels like they finally got a little bit offense. Going West to East is tough and the Raiders just weren't up for NYJ giving them a game.
Games I didn't see (not a surprise):
Colts 17-20 Texans
Yeah, these teams do this to each other twice a year.
Broncos 3-20 Bills
The Bills D is possibly overrated but they're good enough to stuff a below average offense (also going West to East). It wasn't that long ago that the Broncos pass rush was the most fearsome in the league, what happened to that?
Giants 14-19 Bears
The Giants are terrible, the Bears aren't great but they're good enough to beat a team like this.
Dolphins 24-41 Browns
Browns busted out, good for them.
Panthers 31-34 Saints
Closer than it should've been, Panthers special teams kinda blew this game.
Lions 16-19 Redskins
Two bad teams, fortunately there was only one bad game.
Jags 20-42 Titans
Yeah, sure.
Ravens 45-6 Rams
I think the Ravens are the best team in the league right now. Lamar Jackson is shaping up to be the superstar he was hoped to be, the D is locked in, this a team that knows who they are and how to do what they need to do. The danger is that they're peaking too early, but they're really ballin' right now. Man, remember when the Rams were in the Super Bowl and everyone was salivating over their genius coach? Oh yeah, that was a year ago. What the hell happened to them?
Steelers 16-10 Bengals
In the 3rd quarter the Steelers benched 2nd string QB Mason Rudolph for 3rd string QB Devlin Hodges; Hodges had one perfect pass that went for a long TD and that was pretty much the game. Make no mistake outside of one play, Hodges was no better (or different, really) from Rudolph but he gets the W. The Bengals, on the other hand, are still playing their 2nd string QB (uh....I can't remember the dude's name) because they benched Andy Dalton weeks ago, though while watching this game seemed to me it was great time to bring Dalton back to spark the team to a W. Turns out the Bengals don't really wanna win, so they fumbled away a perfectly winnable game against their dreaded rivals. (News: Dalton's gonna start next week....why? What's the point of bringing him back now? *smh*) The Steelers have a good pass rush, solid LB's and a good secondary, which might be good enough to steal some W's (especially as the weather turns wintery) even though that offense is pretty bad right now. The Bengals are playing for the #1 pick and since I live in Bengals TV territory, I'd very much prefer they just forfeited the upcoming games so I could watch something else!
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
The Seahawks scored their two TD's on a long pass play and a breakaway run, otherwise their offense didn't really do much. And even though the Eagles never seemed in this game, it was still winnable late. The Eagles ought to be better, I don't understand why they've struggled but their schedule gets easier so wouldn't be surprised to see them get hot late. The Seahawks are a smart team and they're gonna be a tough out for anyone come playoff time.
Cowboys 9-13 Patriots
4th down late inside the Pats' 10 yard line, down by 7, the Cowboys go for a FG...why? What good is a FG in that situation? Getting stopped and pinning the Pats down on their own goal line is not a terrible outcome there. You know, the Pats didn't exactly blow the Cowboys out. Take out the blocked punt and another Cowboy turnover that led to an FG and the Pats...uh...didn't hardly do anything in this match. Yeah, I'm officially on the Garret's-gotta-go bandwagon. I typically don't fancy myself an expert on football coaching but there was a chance for the Cowboys to win this game and the coach kept them from doing that and that is unforgivable. The Pats have a really good D and Brady is still capable but that offense is not classic, I can see them getting smoked in the playoffs.
Packers 8-37 Niners
Wow. I'm in on the Niners now. The Niners casually piled up points but right before halftime they stole an extra TD and an extra FG and you could tell right then that the Packers got snookered and the Niners were the better and smarter team. Rodgers tried to get it going in the 2nd half but the Niners came right back with a long TD (beautiful roll out by Garoppolo and the perfect placement on the pass) and, man, it was over. Packers mailed in the rest of the game. The Niners are good, man, they're looking at a bye in the playoffs; Packers are solid, I expect them to be there and to be dangerous in the post-season.
Games I didn't see (surprised by result):
Bucs 35-22 Falcons
Just when the Falcons started to look like the team they should've been all year long, they get rolled at home by a so-so division opponent led by Jameis Winston. WTF? The Bucs are kinda fun, they throw the ball around with abandon but they're not built to win games and their off-season revolves around what to do at QB.
Raiders 3-34 Jets
The Raiders were getting going, felt like the Jets were gonna be easy pickins'...uh, not so much. The Jets have been ballin' out lately, feels like they finally got a little bit offense. Going West to East is tough and the Raiders just weren't up for NYJ giving them a game.
Games I didn't see (not a surprise):
Colts 17-20 Texans
Yeah, these teams do this to each other twice a year.
Broncos 3-20 Bills
The Bills D is possibly overrated but they're good enough to stuff a below average offense (also going West to East). It wasn't that long ago that the Broncos pass rush was the most fearsome in the league, what happened to that?
Giants 14-19 Bears
The Giants are terrible, the Bears aren't great but they're good enough to beat a team like this.
Dolphins 24-41 Browns
Browns busted out, good for them.
Panthers 31-34 Saints
Closer than it should've been, Panthers special teams kinda blew this game.
Lions 16-19 Redskins
Two bad teams, fortunately there was only one bad game.
Jags 20-42 Titans
Yeah, sure.
Ravens 45-6 Rams
I think the Ravens are the best team in the league right now. Lamar Jackson is shaping up to be the superstar he was hoped to be, the D is locked in, this a team that knows who they are and how to do what they need to do. The danger is that they're peaking too early, but they're really ballin' right now. Man, remember when the Rams were in the Super Bowl and everyone was salivating over their genius coach? Oh yeah, that was a year ago. What the hell happened to them?
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 13)
Games I saw (some of):
(8) Penn State 17-28 (2) Ohio State
Slog of a game in the 1st half as both teams adjusted to slippery weather conditions, but it felt like the Buckeyes finally had their legs under them when suddenly they started fumbling all over the place and the Nittany Lions made the most of those mistakes. But once the Buckeyes stopped giving away the game, then the game was over. Buckeyes are seriously legit as a championship contender while the Nittany Lions are nice but second tier at best.
Texas A&M 13-19 (4) Georgia
You know all season long Texas was the team that seemed impressive even though they clearly weren't that good, when actually it is A&M that has been putting up good efforts against teams that they just shouldn't be competing with: tough against Clemson, gave Bama a good game, hung with Auburn. And here they kept UGA from taking off, really made them churn on offense. That said, it never felt like they would win any of those games, so does A&M really have anything to build on? I dunno. Georgia is good but I don't think they're good enough, I don't give them any shot against LSU, though their path to the playoff is still right in front of them.
(6) Oregon 28-31 Arizona State
I caught the 2nd half of this game and I kept waiting for Oregon to start rolling up points but kudos to State for playing them tough and bringing the offense of their own to make this a for-real contest. Oregon needed to win out to get to the playoff and the Sun Devils kept that from happening, tough L for the Ducks.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Lousiana State, (2) Ohio State, (4) Georgia, (5) Alabama, (7) Utah, (10) Minnesota, (12) Wisconsin, (13) Michigan, (14) Baylor, (15) Auburn, (16) Notre Dame, (17) Iowa, (18) Memphis, (20) Boise State, (21) Oklahoma State, (23) Southern Cal, (24) Appalachian State
Won but did not impress
(9) Oklahoma. Wasn't that long ago that I was crafting the argument for OU in the playoff, now they're squeaking by TCU. That defense is not top tier even if that offense is.
(19) Cincinnati. I keep waiting for Cincy to do...something interesting. They're good enough to hang around the fringes of the poll by getting by on a flimsy schedule. They're getting W's and that's not insignificant but I'm not blown away by UC.
(22) Iowa State. Meh. Iowa State's whole identity is catching people off guard but how long can that work?
Not so good
(6) Oregon. Offense never got going.
(25) Southern Methodist. Feels like they had Navy in hand, but they did not. Not so good.
Bad beat
(8) Penn State. Game effort but they're not as good as the Buckeyes this season.
Next week's interesting matches:
(1) Ohio State @ (13) Michigan (still a big game, a big opportunity for the Wolverines (re: Coach Harbaugh) to get a signature W)
(5) Alabama @ (15) Auburn (I'm not giving Auburn much of a chance but I'm just trying to give Auburn something to fight for)
(12) Wisconsin @ (8) Minnesota (who had this game circled at the start of the season? I think UM is actually pretty good and this is a great chance for them)
(7) Oklahoma @ (21) Oklahoma State (OU ought to blow them out but that defense is giving OSU a great shot here)
(8) Penn State 17-28 (2) Ohio State
Slog of a game in the 1st half as both teams adjusted to slippery weather conditions, but it felt like the Buckeyes finally had their legs under them when suddenly they started fumbling all over the place and the Nittany Lions made the most of those mistakes. But once the Buckeyes stopped giving away the game, then the game was over. Buckeyes are seriously legit as a championship contender while the Nittany Lions are nice but second tier at best.
Texas A&M 13-19 (4) Georgia
You know all season long Texas was the team that seemed impressive even though they clearly weren't that good, when actually it is A&M that has been putting up good efforts against teams that they just shouldn't be competing with: tough against Clemson, gave Bama a good game, hung with Auburn. And here they kept UGA from taking off, really made them churn on offense. That said, it never felt like they would win any of those games, so does A&M really have anything to build on? I dunno. Georgia is good but I don't think they're good enough, I don't give them any shot against LSU, though their path to the playoff is still right in front of them.
(6) Oregon 28-31 Arizona State
I caught the 2nd half of this game and I kept waiting for Oregon to start rolling up points but kudos to State for playing them tough and bringing the offense of their own to make this a for-real contest. Oregon needed to win out to get to the playoff and the Sun Devils kept that from happening, tough L for the Ducks.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Lousiana State, (2) Ohio State, (4) Georgia, (5) Alabama, (7) Utah, (10) Minnesota, (12) Wisconsin, (13) Michigan, (14) Baylor, (15) Auburn, (16) Notre Dame, (17) Iowa, (18) Memphis, (20) Boise State, (21) Oklahoma State, (23) Southern Cal, (24) Appalachian State
Won but did not impress
(9) Oklahoma. Wasn't that long ago that I was crafting the argument for OU in the playoff, now they're squeaking by TCU. That defense is not top tier even if that offense is.
(19) Cincinnati. I keep waiting for Cincy to do...something interesting. They're good enough to hang around the fringes of the poll by getting by on a flimsy schedule. They're getting W's and that's not insignificant but I'm not blown away by UC.
(22) Iowa State. Meh. Iowa State's whole identity is catching people off guard but how long can that work?
Not so good
(6) Oregon. Offense never got going.
(25) Southern Methodist. Feels like they had Navy in hand, but they did not. Not so good.
Bad beat
(8) Penn State. Game effort but they're not as good as the Buckeyes this season.
Next week's interesting matches:
(1) Ohio State @ (13) Michigan (still a big game, a big opportunity for the Wolverines (re: Coach Harbaugh) to get a signature W)
(5) Alabama @ (15) Auburn (I'm not giving Auburn much of a chance but I'm just trying to give Auburn something to fight for)
(12) Wisconsin @ (8) Minnesota (who had this game circled at the start of the season? I think UM is actually pretty good and this is a great chance for them)
(7) Oklahoma @ (21) Oklahoma State (OU ought to blow them out but that defense is giving OSU a great shot here)
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 10)
Games I saw some of:
(8) Georgia 24-17 (6) Florida
Yeah, the score was close but I never thought Florida was gonna win. Georgia's offense always seemed more capable of grinding through field position than Florida, only a matter of time before that played out. Florida is a nice team but thy're 2nd tier this season (moving in the right direction, next year could be another step up). Georgia is good but that L to South Carolina is gonna doom them unless they beat Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship.
Top 25
Handled their business
(4) Clemson, (7) Oregon, (8) Georgia, (9), Utah, (11) Auburn, (14) Michigan, (21) Boise State, (22) Kansas State, (23) Wake Forest, (24) Memphis
Won but did not impress
(12) Baylor. Hmmm, they've been drubbing opponents for a while now but had to scramble to steal a W at home on a Thursday night to a so-so conference foe? Not impressive.
(16) Notre Dame. Coming back late to steal a W at home from Va Tech? What's going on in South Bend?
(17) Cincinnati. Shoot out on the road to a middling conference foe...is it a sign that they're dangerous or a sign that they're sloppy and lucky? I dunno.
Bad beat
(6) Florida. Good effort but they're just not as good as Georgia this year.
(15) SMU. Felt like they were on the upswing but going on the road to an also-rising conference foe is a tough way to go.
Not so good
(20) Appalachian State. Losing at home is not good.
The official top 6 came out this weekend (and for some reason we're all supposed to care). So here it is:
1) Ohio State
2) Louisiana State
3) Alabama
4) Penn State
5) Clemson
6) Georgia
We're supposed to be stunned that Clemson fell to 5th place but that's not a big deal because one of OSU/Penn State will be eliminated and one of LSU/Alabama will be eliminated, too--which just highlights how not important this poll is right here right now. I'm cool with all of this. I really do think that Ohio State and LSU are in the conversation with Bama and Clemson, so the Buckeyes finishing #1 would not be any kind of travesty. I'd be surprised if Penn State beat Ohio State and I'd be surprised if the winner of LSU/Alabama lost to Georgia (or Florida) in the SEC championship. And I'd be blown away if Clemson lost to any of the leftovers on their schedule.
So for now Penn State and Georgia have their chances to play their way in and if the Pac-12 winner (either Oregon or Utah) goes without a loss they'd be in the talk, too. But otherwise Ohio State, Clemson and the winner of LSU/Alabama are in, along with either Oregon/Utah or possibly the loser of Alabama/LSU.
Next week's interesting matches:
(4) Penn State @ (17) Minnesota (another nice test for the Nittany Lions, great opportunity for Minnesota to get a big W)
(2) LSU @ (3) Alabama (okay, here we go, the game we've been waiting for)
(18) Iowa @ (13) Wisconsin (not as interesting as it could've been, feels like a tidying up of the second tier of the Big Ten)
(8) Georgia 24-17 (6) Florida
Yeah, the score was close but I never thought Florida was gonna win. Georgia's offense always seemed more capable of grinding through field position than Florida, only a matter of time before that played out. Florida is a nice team but thy're 2nd tier this season (moving in the right direction, next year could be another step up). Georgia is good but that L to South Carolina is gonna doom them unless they beat Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship.
Top 25
Handled their business
(4) Clemson, (7) Oregon, (8) Georgia, (9), Utah, (11) Auburn, (14) Michigan, (21) Boise State, (22) Kansas State, (23) Wake Forest, (24) Memphis
Won but did not impress
(12) Baylor. Hmmm, they've been drubbing opponents for a while now but had to scramble to steal a W at home on a Thursday night to a so-so conference foe? Not impressive.
(16) Notre Dame. Coming back late to steal a W at home from Va Tech? What's going on in South Bend?
(17) Cincinnati. Shoot out on the road to a middling conference foe...is it a sign that they're dangerous or a sign that they're sloppy and lucky? I dunno.
Bad beat
(6) Florida. Good effort but they're just not as good as Georgia this year.
(15) SMU. Felt like they were on the upswing but going on the road to an also-rising conference foe is a tough way to go.
Not so good
(20) Appalachian State. Losing at home is not good.
The official top 6 came out this weekend (and for some reason we're all supposed to care). So here it is:
1) Ohio State
2) Louisiana State
3) Alabama
4) Penn State
5) Clemson
6) Georgia
We're supposed to be stunned that Clemson fell to 5th place but that's not a big deal because one of OSU/Penn State will be eliminated and one of LSU/Alabama will be eliminated, too--which just highlights how not important this poll is right here right now. I'm cool with all of this. I really do think that Ohio State and LSU are in the conversation with Bama and Clemson, so the Buckeyes finishing #1 would not be any kind of travesty. I'd be surprised if Penn State beat Ohio State and I'd be surprised if the winner of LSU/Alabama lost to Georgia (or Florida) in the SEC championship. And I'd be blown away if Clemson lost to any of the leftovers on their schedule.
So for now Penn State and Georgia have their chances to play their way in and if the Pac-12 winner (either Oregon or Utah) goes without a loss they'd be in the talk, too. But otherwise Ohio State, Clemson and the winner of LSU/Alabama are in, along with either Oregon/Utah or possibly the loser of Alabama/LSU.
Next week's interesting matches:
(4) Penn State @ (17) Minnesota (another nice test for the Nittany Lions, great opportunity for Minnesota to get a big W)
(2) LSU @ (3) Alabama (okay, here we go, the game we've been waiting for)
(18) Iowa @ (13) Wisconsin (not as interesting as it could've been, feels like a tidying up of the second tier of the Big Ten)
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 9)
Games I saw some of:
(9) Auburn 20-23 (2) LSU
The score looks close and it was tied at halftime, but I thought LSU was the better team all the way through. I expected them to take off in the 2nd half and they did, making it look like a victory that Auburn was able to tie it by the half. Auburn is good but they're out of the SEC race now (but I'd hate to be the upstart small conference team that meets them in a bowl). LSU is for real, man, we'll see when they meet Alabama in a coupla weeks. Ahhh, this college football season has managed to pony up at least one good size match each week, nice to see the stakes are still rising this deep into the season.
(13) Wisconsin 7-38 (3) Ohio State
Buckeyes, too, are for real, feels like Bama and Clemson have some competition this year for the first time in ages (I would've included Oklahoma, too, but oh well). Sloppy conditions kept this game for a while--seems like they should've favored the Badgers, too--but once the Buckeyes got going, they dominated with ease. Wisconsin (like, say, Auburn) is a top quality 2nd tier team but not good enough to roll with the tough guys. Ohio State, on the other hand, seems tightened up on both sides of the ball: a disciplined defense that doesn't get beat and an offense that doesn't make mistakes and makes the most of chances (if perhaps a little streaky). Not ready to put them at #1 just yet but it's in front of them.
(5) Oklahoma 41-48 Kansas State
When the score went by and K State was up 41-24, I did a double take and was like, 'wait, what?' Nope not a typo. So I turned it on in the 3rd quarter and, man, Oklahoma's defense (that I just started to come around) couldn't stop an old man running up hill! Anything K State wanted to do, they did with ease: up the middle, pass to the flat, connecting on 3rd and long, QB sneaks--whatever they wanted! Indeed, they were one lucky stop near midfield (with about 8 minutes left) from really blowing the doors off Oklahoma, their offense pulled up after that, but they could've (and should've!) kept the beatdown going. OU made a game effort down the stretch but they were too far behind to make it work. Outside of the Georgia-Florida winning knocking Alabama (or will it be LSU?), I don't see how OU gets back into the playoff. As for K State, I've been to Manhattan, Kansas, and I'm here to report that beating Oklahoma is all they're gonna talk about for the next coupla years.
Top 25
Handled their business:
(1) Alabama, (2) Louisiana State, (3) Ohio State, (4) Clemson, (6) Penn State, (11) Oregon, (12) Utah, (16) Southern Methodist, (17) Minnesota, (19) Michigan, (20) Iowa, (21) Appalachian State
Bad beat:
(9) Auburn. Yeah, both of these squads are nice 2nd tier teams, I can see them meeting each other in a bowl. But they're not with the elites, not this year.
(13) Wisconsin.
Not good:
(5) Oklahoma. Oh, that defense was a sieve! Damn shame, I thought this squad was going deep this year.
(8) Notre Dame. I didn't see much of this (still baseball season for one last weekend) but it appears that Michigan controlled easily throughout then took 'em to the brick oven in the 4th quarter. After Michigan's mostly mediocre performance this season, for Notre Dame to get so thoroughly whipped was a surprise to me. They'd need a lot of crazy upsets to get themselves back into the playoff talk.
(15) Texas. Well, it is worth noting that my favorable opinion of UT came from their spunky efforts in losses rather than how they looked in their W's. I suspect they're still an edge of top 25 kinda team, they'll get a nice bowl game this year.
(23) Iowa State. Yeah, conference loss at home should pretty much remove them from the top 25 for the rest of the season.
(24) Arizona State. Nice defense, no offense. They're the kinda team that doesn't get blown out but loses a lot of close ones.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(8) Georgia @ (6) Florida (okay, this game is back on; figured Florida would take this one but I think Georgia has a better chance of coming up big in the SEC final)
(7) Oregon @ Southern Cal (I think the Ducks are the better team but conference road games in prime time can always go sideways)
(15) SMU @ (24) Memphis (ehh, could be fun)
(9) Auburn 20-23 (2) LSU
The score looks close and it was tied at halftime, but I thought LSU was the better team all the way through. I expected them to take off in the 2nd half and they did, making it look like a victory that Auburn was able to tie it by the half. Auburn is good but they're out of the SEC race now (but I'd hate to be the upstart small conference team that meets them in a bowl). LSU is for real, man, we'll see when they meet Alabama in a coupla weeks. Ahhh, this college football season has managed to pony up at least one good size match each week, nice to see the stakes are still rising this deep into the season.
(13) Wisconsin 7-38 (3) Ohio State
Buckeyes, too, are for real, feels like Bama and Clemson have some competition this year for the first time in ages (I would've included Oklahoma, too, but oh well). Sloppy conditions kept this game for a while--seems like they should've favored the Badgers, too--but once the Buckeyes got going, they dominated with ease. Wisconsin (like, say, Auburn) is a top quality 2nd tier team but not good enough to roll with the tough guys. Ohio State, on the other hand, seems tightened up on both sides of the ball: a disciplined defense that doesn't get beat and an offense that doesn't make mistakes and makes the most of chances (if perhaps a little streaky). Not ready to put them at #1 just yet but it's in front of them.
(5) Oklahoma 41-48 Kansas State
When the score went by and K State was up 41-24, I did a double take and was like, 'wait, what?' Nope not a typo. So I turned it on in the 3rd quarter and, man, Oklahoma's defense (that I just started to come around) couldn't stop an old man running up hill! Anything K State wanted to do, they did with ease: up the middle, pass to the flat, connecting on 3rd and long, QB sneaks--whatever they wanted! Indeed, they were one lucky stop near midfield (with about 8 minutes left) from really blowing the doors off Oklahoma, their offense pulled up after that, but they could've (and should've!) kept the beatdown going. OU made a game effort down the stretch but they were too far behind to make it work. Outside of the Georgia-Florida winning knocking Alabama (or will it be LSU?), I don't see how OU gets back into the playoff. As for K State, I've been to Manhattan, Kansas, and I'm here to report that beating Oklahoma is all they're gonna talk about for the next coupla years.
Top 25
Handled their business:
(1) Alabama, (2) Louisiana State, (3) Ohio State, (4) Clemson, (6) Penn State, (11) Oregon, (12) Utah, (16) Southern Methodist, (17) Minnesota, (19) Michigan, (20) Iowa, (21) Appalachian State
Bad beat:
(9) Auburn. Yeah, both of these squads are nice 2nd tier teams, I can see them meeting each other in a bowl. But they're not with the elites, not this year.
(13) Wisconsin.
Not good:
(5) Oklahoma. Oh, that defense was a sieve! Damn shame, I thought this squad was going deep this year.
(8) Notre Dame. I didn't see much of this (still baseball season for one last weekend) but it appears that Michigan controlled easily throughout then took 'em to the brick oven in the 4th quarter. After Michigan's mostly mediocre performance this season, for Notre Dame to get so thoroughly whipped was a surprise to me. They'd need a lot of crazy upsets to get themselves back into the playoff talk.
(15) Texas. Well, it is worth noting that my favorable opinion of UT came from their spunky efforts in losses rather than how they looked in their W's. I suspect they're still an edge of top 25 kinda team, they'll get a nice bowl game this year.
(23) Iowa State. Yeah, conference loss at home should pretty much remove them from the top 25 for the rest of the season.
(24) Arizona State. Nice defense, no offense. They're the kinda team that doesn't get blown out but loses a lot of close ones.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(8) Georgia @ (6) Florida (okay, this game is back on; figured Florida would take this one but I think Georgia has a better chance of coming up big in the SEC final)
(7) Oregon @ Southern Cal (I think the Ducks are the better team but conference road games in prime time can always go sideways)
(15) SMU @ (24) Memphis (ehh, could be fun)
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
2019-20 NBA Predictions
Rookie of the Year -- Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)
We haven't seen him since high school, so his skills and dynamism may be totally overrated. But if he can play (I suspect he can), he'll be starting out in the perfect place: a veteran team with a clear style and a great home court advantage. I think he's primed to be a contributor right away for a good team and he'll look good doing it and I think voters will be split on ROY by season's end.
Other candidates: Obviously Zion Williamson (Pelicans) is the easy choice here and I get that my pick has a good chance of looking real stupid by the end of the year. I think Zion is gonna be really good on an improving team and he'll be fun as hell to watch, but I think he'll have restricted minutes/usage and now the report is that he's already out for 6 weeks to start the season, which throws off what I thought his season would be: I suspect by season's end he won't be quite the dynamo we're expecting. Tyler Herro (Heat) tore it up in pre-season and, like Porter, looks to slide nicely into a ready made rotation but I just don't think the Heat are going to be exciting enough to carry him to the head of the vote. Ja Morant (Grizzlies) is gonna be great on a terrible team. Coby White (Bulls) could be the guy that propels the Bulls up the standings, but I'm not yet convinced. I can see Rui Hachimura (Wizards) and PJ Washington (Hornets) impressing the chattering classes by persevering through awful situations (but I don't see either of them actually winning). And don't forget about Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans), who looks like he might be the pleasant surprise of the season.
I think this year's rookie class is gonna be a good one and with the grand shift that took place last summer, the rooks look to play a big role throughout this topsy turvy season.
MVP -- Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Yeah, I took him last year but the only thing that held him back was his incredible lack of interest in playing for anyone other than the Lakers. Well...now he plays for the Lakers...problem solved, right? I think it is. I think he's ready to explode, I think Lebron is looking forward to finally have a teammate that can take over, I think the Laker faithful will take to him right away and I think Coach Vogel is a good fit to craft a supporting cast for him. Everything is set up for AD to have a big big big year and if so, I think the voters will have to give him the big prize (and as a fan I really want to see him play to his potential).
Other candidates: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is the reigning champ and might be even better this year, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him claim this award right away and put his fingerprints all over it. James Harden (Rockets) has been in my top 3 for MVP five straight seasons and he'll be there again, right? Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) and Joel Embiid (Sixers) will have their fans and both look set to have monster seasons but I think both are on teams too deep to rely solely on them. Steph Curry (Warriors) has the team completely on his shoulders and I think the Warriors will still be pretty good which could earn some votes but he probably won't get a lot of #1 votes.
Defensive Player of the Year -- Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
I actually kinda thought he wasn't that great last year but I think this season he'll be anchoring a really good team and he looks to be more of an offensive threat, too, and that should boost his already mighty efforts on the other end.
Other candidates: I can see Ben Simmons (Sixers) really shining out on the defensive end this season as he tries harder (and then recedes) on the offensive end. Patrick Beverley (Clippers) will get plenty of eyeballs and if he shines out, he'll get some votes. Draymond Green (Warriors) will lead the new-look Warriors and if they make the playoffs, he'll get votes (also seeing how he shepherds Willie Cauley-Stein and Omari Spellman into the defensive unit could be notable, as well).
6th Man -- Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets)
I dunno, man, this category seems harder than usual this year because with so much roster turnover this summer, it's hard to tell who will be starting and who will be shoring up the 2nd string. So though Dinwiddie has been a boon off the bench for the Nets in recent years--and may well be again coming in behind Kyrie Irving--he also could be in the starting lineup this year as the roster turnover necessitates putting experienced players out there first. We'll see.
Other candidates: Delon Wright (Mavs) looks to be the perfect fit to keep the Mavs' offense going while Luke and Porzingis rest up. Jaylen Brown (Celtics) got his big contract so maybe he'll be taking it easy, but I suspect he's coming into the season with a chip on his shoulder and if he does come off the bench, he might be in full monster mode on both ends. Jakob Poetl (Spurs) is kinda overlooked and he didn't get his extension, so he's got a lot more to play for and could have a really solid season in San Anton. Tyler Herro (Heat) will likely be coming off the bench and could be a big piece for the Heat hopes, especially down the stretch. Likewise for another rookie, Micheal Porter Jr (Nuggets), who will be playing against 2nd stringers for the most part and could find a lot of opportunities for himself. Throw in Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans) as another rookie who might impress off the bench.
Most Improved -- Lonzo Ball (Pelicans)
Now that he's out from under Lebron's shadow and his father's shadow and the hometown LA shadow, we'll see how he plays in the light. New Orleans needs him to be good--not great--and the ensemble around him will be absorbing a lot of the pressure and delivering a lot of fun, which would seem to be the perfect environment for finally reaching his potential.
Other candidates: Gordon Hayward (Celtics) pretty much has this award on his mantelpiece already, right? Anfernee Simons (Blazers) will finally show us whether he's worth all the hype. Bam Adebayo (Heat) should get an expanded role now that Whiteside has moved on. Caris LaVert (Nets) should be a popular choice for this, he looks to have a big year. Dejounte Murray (Spurs) is a good choice here, ready to bust out after a year on the mend (or perhaps he'll fit better here next year). Lauri Markennen (Bulls) is set to have a good bounce back season. Kelly Oubre (Suns) isn't likely to get votes but I can see him putting up bigger numbers than he has yet in his career. Jabari Parker (Hawks) could be a good fit on the young Hawks. Maxi Kleber (Mavs) might be a perfect fit with the Luka/Porzingis combo. Luke Kennard (Pistons) is ready to take a leap (or be out Detroit by the end of next summer). Does Mike Conley (Jazz) qualify here?
Coach of the Year -- Mike Malone (Nuggets)/Brett Brown (Sixers)
I got the Nuggets and Sixers finishing 1st in their conferences and that alone will get them major consideration for this award. If Malone deftly handles his rotation and gets the #1 seed in the West, he'll deserve it. And after years of struggling, I'm glad the Sixers held on to Brown now that the team is finally poised to maximize their potential; if so, voters that have long derided Brown may be forced to hand him the award.
Other candidates: If Frank Vogel (Lakers) pulls together a defensive mindset that allows Lebron and AD enough room to focus on offense and propel the Lakers up the table, he'll get a lot of votes (if not, he'll probably be looking for a job next summer). Curious to see if Mike D'antoni (Rockets) becomes a beloved figure in the league now that he's dealing with a new two-headed monster on the floor and a GM that is under the microscope--all without a contract extension and lame duck status. Quin Snyder (Jazz) has long been much admired by the literati and if the Jazz make the leap everyone is predicting, then he'll be a good choice for this. If Nick Nurse (Raptors) gets his team back in line for a deep playoff run, then he'll be ranked among the elite coaches in the league.
Executive of the Year -- Arturas Karnisovas (Nuggets)/Jon Horst (Bucks)
I think the Nuggets finish 1st in the West and the Bucks finish a close 2nd in the East and I think these two GM's have put enough of their own stamp on their teams--and they're totally uncontroversial!--so I just see these two sucking up all the votes.
This could be a really awkward award this year: is anyone voting for Darryl Morey (Rockets) or Rob Pelinka (Lakers)? Or does everyone rush to support Morey or vindicate Pelinka? Do we all think that Elton Brand (Sixers) inherited too much of his talent or are we tired of thinking Danny Ainge (Celtics) is a genius? Does Masai Ujiri (Raptors) break through or do we all just lament his limited options? What do the voters do if Neil Olshay (Blazers) leads his team back into a home-playoff status? This category looks as open as any of them.
Regular Season (East/West)
Sixers/Nuggets
Bucks/Rockets
Raptors/Jazz
Celtics/Blazers
Pacers/Lakers
Heat/Clippers
Magic/Warriors
Pistons/Spurs
Playoffs
Sixers over Pistons (4)/Nuggets over Spurs (5)
Bucks over Magic (5)/Rockets over Warriors (7)
Raptors over Heat (7)/Clippers over Jazz (6)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Lakers over Blazers (6)
Sixers over Celtics (7)/Nuggets over Lakers (7)
Bucks over Raptors (6)/Clippers over Rockets (7)
Bucks over Sixers (7)/Clippers over Nuggets (6)
Clippers over Bucks (7)
(Dang, man, I just took the Clippers to win it all...)
Okay, season foretold. Try to look surprised when all this stuff happens exactly as I told you it would.
We haven't seen him since high school, so his skills and dynamism may be totally overrated. But if he can play (I suspect he can), he'll be starting out in the perfect place: a veteran team with a clear style and a great home court advantage. I think he's primed to be a contributor right away for a good team and he'll look good doing it and I think voters will be split on ROY by season's end.
Other candidates: Obviously Zion Williamson (Pelicans) is the easy choice here and I get that my pick has a good chance of looking real stupid by the end of the year. I think Zion is gonna be really good on an improving team and he'll be fun as hell to watch, but I think he'll have restricted minutes/usage and now the report is that he's already out for 6 weeks to start the season, which throws off what I thought his season would be: I suspect by season's end he won't be quite the dynamo we're expecting. Tyler Herro (Heat) tore it up in pre-season and, like Porter, looks to slide nicely into a ready made rotation but I just don't think the Heat are going to be exciting enough to carry him to the head of the vote. Ja Morant (Grizzlies) is gonna be great on a terrible team. Coby White (Bulls) could be the guy that propels the Bulls up the standings, but I'm not yet convinced. I can see Rui Hachimura (Wizards) and PJ Washington (Hornets) impressing the chattering classes by persevering through awful situations (but I don't see either of them actually winning). And don't forget about Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans), who looks like he might be the pleasant surprise of the season.
I think this year's rookie class is gonna be a good one and with the grand shift that took place last summer, the rooks look to play a big role throughout this topsy turvy season.
MVP -- Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Yeah, I took him last year but the only thing that held him back was his incredible lack of interest in playing for anyone other than the Lakers. Well...now he plays for the Lakers...problem solved, right? I think it is. I think he's ready to explode, I think Lebron is looking forward to finally have a teammate that can take over, I think the Laker faithful will take to him right away and I think Coach Vogel is a good fit to craft a supporting cast for him. Everything is set up for AD to have a big big big year and if so, I think the voters will have to give him the big prize (and as a fan I really want to see him play to his potential).
Other candidates: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is the reigning champ and might be even better this year, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him claim this award right away and put his fingerprints all over it. James Harden (Rockets) has been in my top 3 for MVP five straight seasons and he'll be there again, right? Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) and Joel Embiid (Sixers) will have their fans and both look set to have monster seasons but I think both are on teams too deep to rely solely on them. Steph Curry (Warriors) has the team completely on his shoulders and I think the Warriors will still be pretty good which could earn some votes but he probably won't get a lot of #1 votes.
Defensive Player of the Year -- Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
I actually kinda thought he wasn't that great last year but I think this season he'll be anchoring a really good team and he looks to be more of an offensive threat, too, and that should boost his already mighty efforts on the other end.
Other candidates: I can see Ben Simmons (Sixers) really shining out on the defensive end this season as he tries harder (and then recedes) on the offensive end. Patrick Beverley (Clippers) will get plenty of eyeballs and if he shines out, he'll get some votes. Draymond Green (Warriors) will lead the new-look Warriors and if they make the playoffs, he'll get votes (also seeing how he shepherds Willie Cauley-Stein and Omari Spellman into the defensive unit could be notable, as well).
6th Man -- Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets)
I dunno, man, this category seems harder than usual this year because with so much roster turnover this summer, it's hard to tell who will be starting and who will be shoring up the 2nd string. So though Dinwiddie has been a boon off the bench for the Nets in recent years--and may well be again coming in behind Kyrie Irving--he also could be in the starting lineup this year as the roster turnover necessitates putting experienced players out there first. We'll see.
Other candidates: Delon Wright (Mavs) looks to be the perfect fit to keep the Mavs' offense going while Luke and Porzingis rest up. Jaylen Brown (Celtics) got his big contract so maybe he'll be taking it easy, but I suspect he's coming into the season with a chip on his shoulder and if he does come off the bench, he might be in full monster mode on both ends. Jakob Poetl (Spurs) is kinda overlooked and he didn't get his extension, so he's got a lot more to play for and could have a really solid season in San Anton. Tyler Herro (Heat) will likely be coming off the bench and could be a big piece for the Heat hopes, especially down the stretch. Likewise for another rookie, Micheal Porter Jr (Nuggets), who will be playing against 2nd stringers for the most part and could find a lot of opportunities for himself. Throw in Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans) as another rookie who might impress off the bench.
Most Improved -- Lonzo Ball (Pelicans)
Now that he's out from under Lebron's shadow and his father's shadow and the hometown LA shadow, we'll see how he plays in the light. New Orleans needs him to be good--not great--and the ensemble around him will be absorbing a lot of the pressure and delivering a lot of fun, which would seem to be the perfect environment for finally reaching his potential.
Other candidates: Gordon Hayward (Celtics) pretty much has this award on his mantelpiece already, right? Anfernee Simons (Blazers) will finally show us whether he's worth all the hype. Bam Adebayo (Heat) should get an expanded role now that Whiteside has moved on. Caris LaVert (Nets) should be a popular choice for this, he looks to have a big year. Dejounte Murray (Spurs) is a good choice here, ready to bust out after a year on the mend (or perhaps he'll fit better here next year). Lauri Markennen (Bulls) is set to have a good bounce back season. Kelly Oubre (Suns) isn't likely to get votes but I can see him putting up bigger numbers than he has yet in his career. Jabari Parker (Hawks) could be a good fit on the young Hawks. Maxi Kleber (Mavs) might be a perfect fit with the Luka/Porzingis combo. Luke Kennard (Pistons) is ready to take a leap (or be out Detroit by the end of next summer). Does Mike Conley (Jazz) qualify here?
Coach of the Year -- Mike Malone (Nuggets)/Brett Brown (Sixers)
I got the Nuggets and Sixers finishing 1st in their conferences and that alone will get them major consideration for this award. If Malone deftly handles his rotation and gets the #1 seed in the West, he'll deserve it. And after years of struggling, I'm glad the Sixers held on to Brown now that the team is finally poised to maximize their potential; if so, voters that have long derided Brown may be forced to hand him the award.
Other candidates: If Frank Vogel (Lakers) pulls together a defensive mindset that allows Lebron and AD enough room to focus on offense and propel the Lakers up the table, he'll get a lot of votes (if not, he'll probably be looking for a job next summer). Curious to see if Mike D'antoni (Rockets) becomes a beloved figure in the league now that he's dealing with a new two-headed monster on the floor and a GM that is under the microscope--all without a contract extension and lame duck status. Quin Snyder (Jazz) has long been much admired by the literati and if the Jazz make the leap everyone is predicting, then he'll be a good choice for this. If Nick Nurse (Raptors) gets his team back in line for a deep playoff run, then he'll be ranked among the elite coaches in the league.
Executive of the Year -- Arturas Karnisovas (Nuggets)/Jon Horst (Bucks)
I think the Nuggets finish 1st in the West and the Bucks finish a close 2nd in the East and I think these two GM's have put enough of their own stamp on their teams--and they're totally uncontroversial!--so I just see these two sucking up all the votes.
This could be a really awkward award this year: is anyone voting for Darryl Morey (Rockets) or Rob Pelinka (Lakers)? Or does everyone rush to support Morey or vindicate Pelinka? Do we all think that Elton Brand (Sixers) inherited too much of his talent or are we tired of thinking Danny Ainge (Celtics) is a genius? Does Masai Ujiri (Raptors) break through or do we all just lament his limited options? What do the voters do if Neil Olshay (Blazers) leads his team back into a home-playoff status? This category looks as open as any of them.
Regular Season (East/West)
Sixers/Nuggets
Bucks/Rockets
Raptors/Jazz
Celtics/Blazers
Pacers/Lakers
Heat/Clippers
Magic/Warriors
Pistons/Spurs
Playoffs
Sixers over Pistons (4)/Nuggets over Spurs (5)
Bucks over Magic (5)/Rockets over Warriors (7)
Raptors over Heat (7)/Clippers over Jazz (6)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Lakers over Blazers (6)
Sixers over Celtics (7)/Nuggets over Lakers (7)
Bucks over Raptors (6)/Clippers over Rockets (7)
Bucks over Sixers (7)/Clippers over Nuggets (6)
Clippers over Bucks (7)
(Dang, man, I just took the Clippers to win it all...)
Okay, season foretold. Try to look surprised when all this stuff happens exactly as I told you it would.
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Atlantic Division)
Sixers
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.
Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.
In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.
Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.
Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.
Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.
In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.
Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.
Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.
Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.
In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).
Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.
Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.
Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.
In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.
Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.
Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.
Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.
In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.
Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.
Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.
In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.
Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.
Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.
Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.
In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.
Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.
Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.
Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.
In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).
Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.
Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.
Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.
In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.
Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.
Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.
Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.
In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.
Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Central Division)
Bucks
Out:
Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier, Malcolm Brogdon, Jon Leuer, Bonzi Colson
Brogdon is gonna be tough to replace but the Bucks can still be really good without him (but, ouch, they're gonna miss him). Mirotic had his moments but didn't do much in the playoffs; strangely took a lesser deal to go back to Europe. Gasol was a nice playoff presence but I don't remember him playing at all for the Bucks last season. Frazier is a nice 2nd/3rd string PG but with Giannis and Middleton handling the ball so much, this is probably a position where they can afford to be thin. I always kinda liked Leuer but I reckon he didn't fit their plans. Colson had good buzz coming out of NCAA, perhaps getting out of Milwaukee will be the break he needs.
Re-signed:
Brook Lopez (4yr/$52m), George Hill (3yr/$28.8m), Khris Middleton, (5yr/$177.7m)
Middleton was a must: what I thought I'd see in the Bucks is that it is Giannis that gets everyone else going but actually Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else falls in to place; they're gonna miss Brogdon but with Middleton and Giannis there's enough to get past most teams night after night. And while the Bucks were appreciative of Lopez and Hill for their unexpectedly good seasons last year, giving them big raises for the same performance has got to feel a bit dispiriting; do you keep the continuity or do you allocate the big dollars for sexy additions? (They chose continuity; not bad, I still think they've got a great shot at finishing 1st in the East)
Signed:
Robin Lopez (2yr/$9.7m), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$5.2m), Thanassis Antetokounpo (2yr/$3.1m), Dragan Bender (2yr/$3.5m), Kyle Korver (1yr/$2.6m), Pacers 1st rd pick (top 14 protected 2020-2025), 2025 2nd rd pick, future 2nd rd pick, trade exception (something in the $20m range, no?)
(Another Lopez and another Antentokounpo? Dang!) Robin allows them to maximize their Lopez output (something I always thought would work for the Morris twins, too), which bodes well for their bench play. Matthews and Korver are both kinda limited at this point in their careers but they know how to play and I like adding hungry vets to a good team. I was never a Dragan Bender fan, whenever I've watched him I've never been able to figure out what that guy does on the court; if the Bucks have the right role for him, perhaps he'll finally find himself (at that price tag, he's worth a look, I reckon). That trade exception should give them room to move at the deadline, if they're willing to spend money. That 1st rounder will probably be around #20 I reckon, but more picks are always welcomed these days.
2-way and Exhibit 10 signings:
Cam Reynolds, Frank Mason
I can see Mason being a legit 3rd string PG in this league but I don't know Reynolds.
Over/Under (57.5): I got the over
I have them finishing 2nd in the East (and getting to the Finals). This team feels like they won't be as good as last year and certainly not any better. But they are so driven by Giannis that if he gets better than the team will, too. They've got enough vets and enough continuity to close out games and though losing Brogdon will be tough, I think any Giannis growth will offset that. They're still really good.
Pacers
Out:
Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Davon Reed, Kyle O'Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Wes Matthews, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2025 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick
I kinda love Bogdanovic, that's a tough loss, and Young is one of the more underrated players in the league. And though the rest make up a nice bench, I think they can get by without them. This team is all about Oladipo.
Re-signed:
Edmond Sumner (3yr/$4.2m guaranteed), Alize Johnson (guaranteed the final year of his current contract), Aaron Holiday (team exercised option; 1yr), TJ Leaf (team exercised option; 1yr)
Okay, I don't have any great opinions on any of these guys. But if the team likes them, then re-up them.
In:
Malcolm Brogdon (4yr/$85m), Jeremy Lamb (3yr/$31.5m), Goga Bitadze (4yr/$5.7m guaranteed), TJ McConnell (2 yr/$7m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$4.8m), JaKarr Sampson (1yr/$1.7m), Walt Lemon Jr, Three Heat 2nd rd picks (2022, 2025, 2026)
Brogdon is a good addition, a solid reliable PG that will keep the offense moving and won't turn the ball over. Lamb is nice, might be a nice fit here. I've heard intriguing things about Bitadze, could be a rookie to keep an eye on. I love TJ McConnell, the best 2nd string PG in the league (and that's not insignificant). Holiday, Sampson and Lemon are worthy roster fillers.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Amida Brimah (1yr/$1m)
I dunno, if the team likes 'em, then go for it.
Over/Under (46.5): I'm going under
I kinda like this team but if Oladipo misses any time at all (and he's slated to start the season injured), I just don't see how they make up for his production. Nice cast around him but they need Oladipo to be a big star to really take off. I've got them 5th in the East (but I don't see them moving on in the playoffs).
Pistons
Out:
Jon Leuer, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington, Kalin Lucas, Zaza Pachulia, Glenn Robinson, Ish Smth, Isaiah Whitehead, 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick
Ehh, a lot of okay players, nobody irreplaceable.
Re-signed:
Luke Kennard (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, now's the time to take a leap.
In:
Sekou Doumbouya (2yr/$6.7m), Tony Snell, Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.6m), Tim Frazier (1yr), Christian Wood, four Cavs 2nd rd picks (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Doumbouya is an interesting rookie but hard to imagine he'll be good enough to really elevate this squad. Snell, Rose, Morris and Frazier are nice reliable vets (but, again, hard to see them as difference makers) and I always liked Wood, hope he gets some run finally. 2nd rd picks are like birthday cards from a weird uncle: hey, you never know, it might be good.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
the rights to Deividas Sirvydis, Louis King, Jordan Bone
I dunno. I liked Bone in the NCAA, we'll see if he can step up.
Over/Under (37.5): I have them over
I don't love this team but they don't suck, this is a perfectly slightly above average squad. I have them 8th in the East (and dispatched quickly in the post-season). Not a good team, not a bad team but a sturdy one.
Bulls
Out:
Brandon Sampson, Rawle Alkins, Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot, Walt Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, 2020 2nd rd pick
When a bad team doesn't come together, you don't really lament the guys that leave in the off-season even if you feel like they might've been helpful. I still kinda like Alkins and TLC and even Lemon and Blakeney, but the Bulls aren't worried about those guys not being around.
Re-signed:
Ryan Arcidiacono (2yr/$6m), Shaq Harrison (2yr/$4.5m)
I like these guys, both reasonable deals and gives them staggering depth at PG (which ain't bad, I guess).
In:
Thaddeus Young (3yr/$41m), Daniel Gafford (4yr/$6.1m), Tomas Satoransky (3yr/$30m), Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.5m), Coby White (4yr/$24m)
They already have Zach LaVine and Otto Porter to build around, so these deals are minimal cast building moves and I kinda like all of them. Young is underrated, Gafford had good buzz in NCAA, I really like Satoransky and I'm warming up on Kornet (very efficient player). If LaVine and Porter take a step forward and White is an ROY candidate, then they could take a real leap.
Also
Luol Deng signed a 1-day contract to retire
Gonna retire his jersey?
Over/Under (32.5): I got them over
I don't love the squad but its not bad, they've got a lot of guys primed to take a step forward next year and while they don't have the veteran savvy that knows how to get W's, I think they'll be good enough to take that step forward this season. Could be a bust out team but I don't see that. I don't have them in playoffs, for example, but I think they get 36 wins, which is good progression for where they've been the last few years.
Cavs
Out:
JR Smith, Deng Adel, Jarron Blossongame, Marquesse Chriss, Channing Frye, David Nwaba, Cameron Payne, Nik Stauskus
Getting rid of Smith is a great and glorious thing for the Cavs. I thought Nwaba really had a chance to be a good player in Cleveland, but didn't work out. As for the rest, oh well.
Re-signed: (none)
Newly signed:
Darius Garland (2yr/$13.1m), Dylan Windler (2yr/$2m), Kevin Porter Jr (2yr/$3.3m), Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook, Dean Wade
Okay, we're going full-on youth movement here.
Over/Under (24.5): I'm going under
Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova all come off the books next summer leaving the Cavs an extra $66.8m (yeah, I busted out the calculator for that shit!) to throw around. Factor in that Kevin Love's $28.9m contract could probably be had by anyone willing to throw a bunch of fresh young bodies at the Cavs and you're looking at a total rebuild. Also, their 1st rd pick next year is top 10 protected (then converts to 2nd rounders) meaning they are eager to suck this year. So if the Cavs are unexpectedly good, don't be surprised if management suddenly makes moves to get worse. This actually isn't a bad looking roster for now but everything points to them tanking hard this season. Bet the under!
Out:
Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier, Malcolm Brogdon, Jon Leuer, Bonzi Colson
Brogdon is gonna be tough to replace but the Bucks can still be really good without him (but, ouch, they're gonna miss him). Mirotic had his moments but didn't do much in the playoffs; strangely took a lesser deal to go back to Europe. Gasol was a nice playoff presence but I don't remember him playing at all for the Bucks last season. Frazier is a nice 2nd/3rd string PG but with Giannis and Middleton handling the ball so much, this is probably a position where they can afford to be thin. I always kinda liked Leuer but I reckon he didn't fit their plans. Colson had good buzz coming out of NCAA, perhaps getting out of Milwaukee will be the break he needs.
Re-signed:
Brook Lopez (4yr/$52m), George Hill (3yr/$28.8m), Khris Middleton, (5yr/$177.7m)
Middleton was a must: what I thought I'd see in the Bucks is that it is Giannis that gets everyone else going but actually Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else falls in to place; they're gonna miss Brogdon but with Middleton and Giannis there's enough to get past most teams night after night. And while the Bucks were appreciative of Lopez and Hill for their unexpectedly good seasons last year, giving them big raises for the same performance has got to feel a bit dispiriting; do you keep the continuity or do you allocate the big dollars for sexy additions? (They chose continuity; not bad, I still think they've got a great shot at finishing 1st in the East)
Signed:
Robin Lopez (2yr/$9.7m), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$5.2m), Thanassis Antetokounpo (2yr/$3.1m), Dragan Bender (2yr/$3.5m), Kyle Korver (1yr/$2.6m), Pacers 1st rd pick (top 14 protected 2020-2025), 2025 2nd rd pick, future 2nd rd pick, trade exception (something in the $20m range, no?)
(Another Lopez and another Antentokounpo? Dang!) Robin allows them to maximize their Lopez output (something I always thought would work for the Morris twins, too), which bodes well for their bench play. Matthews and Korver are both kinda limited at this point in their careers but they know how to play and I like adding hungry vets to a good team. I was never a Dragan Bender fan, whenever I've watched him I've never been able to figure out what that guy does on the court; if the Bucks have the right role for him, perhaps he'll finally find himself (at that price tag, he's worth a look, I reckon). That trade exception should give them room to move at the deadline, if they're willing to spend money. That 1st rounder will probably be around #20 I reckon, but more picks are always welcomed these days.
2-way and Exhibit 10 signings:
Cam Reynolds, Frank Mason
I can see Mason being a legit 3rd string PG in this league but I don't know Reynolds.
Over/Under (57.5): I got the over
I have them finishing 2nd in the East (and getting to the Finals). This team feels like they won't be as good as last year and certainly not any better. But they are so driven by Giannis that if he gets better than the team will, too. They've got enough vets and enough continuity to close out games and though losing Brogdon will be tough, I think any Giannis growth will offset that. They're still really good.
Pacers
Out:
Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Davon Reed, Kyle O'Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Wes Matthews, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2025 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick
I kinda love Bogdanovic, that's a tough loss, and Young is one of the more underrated players in the league. And though the rest make up a nice bench, I think they can get by without them. This team is all about Oladipo.
Re-signed:
Edmond Sumner (3yr/$4.2m guaranteed), Alize Johnson (guaranteed the final year of his current contract), Aaron Holiday (team exercised option; 1yr), TJ Leaf (team exercised option; 1yr)
Okay, I don't have any great opinions on any of these guys. But if the team likes them, then re-up them.
In:
Malcolm Brogdon (4yr/$85m), Jeremy Lamb (3yr/$31.5m), Goga Bitadze (4yr/$5.7m guaranteed), TJ McConnell (2 yr/$7m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$4.8m), JaKarr Sampson (1yr/$1.7m), Walt Lemon Jr, Three Heat 2nd rd picks (2022, 2025, 2026)
Brogdon is a good addition, a solid reliable PG that will keep the offense moving and won't turn the ball over. Lamb is nice, might be a nice fit here. I've heard intriguing things about Bitadze, could be a rookie to keep an eye on. I love TJ McConnell, the best 2nd string PG in the league (and that's not insignificant). Holiday, Sampson and Lemon are worthy roster fillers.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Amida Brimah (1yr/$1m)
I dunno, if the team likes 'em, then go for it.
Over/Under (46.5): I'm going under
I kinda like this team but if Oladipo misses any time at all (and he's slated to start the season injured), I just don't see how they make up for his production. Nice cast around him but they need Oladipo to be a big star to really take off. I've got them 5th in the East (but I don't see them moving on in the playoffs).
Pistons
Out:
Jon Leuer, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington, Kalin Lucas, Zaza Pachulia, Glenn Robinson, Ish Smth, Isaiah Whitehead, 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick
Ehh, a lot of okay players, nobody irreplaceable.
Re-signed:
Luke Kennard (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, now's the time to take a leap.
In:
Sekou Doumbouya (2yr/$6.7m), Tony Snell, Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.6m), Tim Frazier (1yr), Christian Wood, four Cavs 2nd rd picks (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Doumbouya is an interesting rookie but hard to imagine he'll be good enough to really elevate this squad. Snell, Rose, Morris and Frazier are nice reliable vets (but, again, hard to see them as difference makers) and I always liked Wood, hope he gets some run finally. 2nd rd picks are like birthday cards from a weird uncle: hey, you never know, it might be good.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
the rights to Deividas Sirvydis, Louis King, Jordan Bone
I dunno. I liked Bone in the NCAA, we'll see if he can step up.
Over/Under (37.5): I have them over
I don't love this team but they don't suck, this is a perfectly slightly above average squad. I have them 8th in the East (and dispatched quickly in the post-season). Not a good team, not a bad team but a sturdy one.
Bulls
Out:
Brandon Sampson, Rawle Alkins, Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot, Walt Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, 2020 2nd rd pick
When a bad team doesn't come together, you don't really lament the guys that leave in the off-season even if you feel like they might've been helpful. I still kinda like Alkins and TLC and even Lemon and Blakeney, but the Bulls aren't worried about those guys not being around.
Re-signed:
Ryan Arcidiacono (2yr/$6m), Shaq Harrison (2yr/$4.5m)
I like these guys, both reasonable deals and gives them staggering depth at PG (which ain't bad, I guess).
In:
Thaddeus Young (3yr/$41m), Daniel Gafford (4yr/$6.1m), Tomas Satoransky (3yr/$30m), Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.5m), Coby White (4yr/$24m)
They already have Zach LaVine and Otto Porter to build around, so these deals are minimal cast building moves and I kinda like all of them. Young is underrated, Gafford had good buzz in NCAA, I really like Satoransky and I'm warming up on Kornet (very efficient player). If LaVine and Porter take a step forward and White is an ROY candidate, then they could take a real leap.
Also
Luol Deng signed a 1-day contract to retire
Gonna retire his jersey?
Over/Under (32.5): I got them over
I don't love the squad but its not bad, they've got a lot of guys primed to take a step forward next year and while they don't have the veteran savvy that knows how to get W's, I think they'll be good enough to take that step forward this season. Could be a bust out team but I don't see that. I don't have them in playoffs, for example, but I think they get 36 wins, which is good progression for where they've been the last few years.
Cavs
Out:
JR Smith, Deng Adel, Jarron Blossongame, Marquesse Chriss, Channing Frye, David Nwaba, Cameron Payne, Nik Stauskus
Getting rid of Smith is a great and glorious thing for the Cavs. I thought Nwaba really had a chance to be a good player in Cleveland, but didn't work out. As for the rest, oh well.
Re-signed: (none)
Newly signed:
Darius Garland (2yr/$13.1m), Dylan Windler (2yr/$2m), Kevin Porter Jr (2yr/$3.3m), Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook, Dean Wade
Okay, we're going full-on youth movement here.
Over/Under (24.5): I'm going under
Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova all come off the books next summer leaving the Cavs an extra $66.8m (yeah, I busted out the calculator for that shit!) to throw around. Factor in that Kevin Love's $28.9m contract could probably be had by anyone willing to throw a bunch of fresh young bodies at the Cavs and you're looking at a total rebuild. Also, their 1st rd pick next year is top 10 protected (then converts to 2nd rounders) meaning they are eager to suck this year. So if the Cavs are unexpectedly good, don't be surprised if management suddenly makes moves to get worse. This actually isn't a bad looking roster for now but everything points to them tanking hard this season. Bet the under!
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Southeast Division)
Heat
Out:
Ryan Anderson, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson, Yante Maten, Dwyane Wade, 2022 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected)
Tough to lose that 1st rd pick but the rest are better off gone.
Re-signed:
Duncan Robinson (guaranteed final year of his contract; 1yr/$1m), Udonis Haslem (1yr/$2.6m), Derrick Jones Jr (team exercised option; 1yr), Kendrick Nunn (guaranteed final year; 1yr/$150k), Bam Adebayo (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Erik Spoelstra (multi-year extension)
Haslem is still around, huh? I've grown into the notion that sometimes coaches are more effective as players, that paying Haslem $5m to be a coach wouldn't be as effective as $2m to be a player, but I can't help thinking that whatever Haslem does it could be done outside of the salary cap. But I guess they must love him. I'm a big fan of Adebayo, think he's gonna have a big year. And Spoelstra is a great coach, more years is a great thing. The other dudes are reasonably priced.
In:
Jimmy Butler (4yr/$140m), Tyler Herro (4yr/$7.5m guaranteed), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Silva, Daryl Macon, Nuggets 2022 2nd rd pick
I think Butler is problematic but this looks to be the ideal spot for him, so hopefully he'll going back to just being a player; if so, the Heat could be really good this year. Herro looks like a stud, looks to fit nicely in that rotation. Okpala is a good value at that pick. Don't know Silva or Macon.
Over/Under (43.5): I'm going over (just barely)
I don't love this team but I think this division is kinda awful, so that alone should net the Heat a pile of W's, and they have a lot of trade options, so I think their flexibility will serve them well this season. If Butler keeps his head on, if Herro challenges for ROY, if Bam blows up, if Dragic has a killer walk year, then the Heat could really be great, even kinda dangerous in the playoffs. But that's a lot of ifs, so I think banking that they'll be good not great is much more reasonable.
Magic
Out:
Timofey Mozgov, Troy Caupain, Jerian Grant
Meh. Nothing to worry about on this side of the ledger.
Re-signed:
Nikola Vucevic (4yr/$100m), Terrence Ross (4yr/$54m), Khem Birch (2yr/$6m), Michaeal Carter-Williams (1yr), Jonathon Isaac (team exercised option; 2yr), Markelle Fultz (team exercised option; 2yr), Mo Bamba (team exercised option; 2yr)
Seems like a lot of money to spend on bringing back guys that got comfortably bounced in the first round last year, but there's a lot of talent here and if it's available to the Magic then they're probably wise to scoop it up (even if they gotta overpay). I kinda love Vucevic, he can be the anchor of a good team. Ross is a reliable veteran swingman. Birch is an underrated scorer down low. MCW can be useful off the bench. I've been skeptical of Isaac and Bamba but they'll play this year so we'll see what they can do. This season for the Magic is all about Fultz: if he can be anywhere close to what he was supposed to be then all of the sudden this looks like a really good team, with flexibility to make a deal.
In:
Al-Farouq Aminu (3yr/$29.2m)
Aminu's on-ball defense is among the best in the league, not a bad player to have around and very affordable, too.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Josh Magette, Amile Jefferson
Not sure what depth these guys provide but they're there, so good for them.
Over/Under (41.5): I got them just under
If everything goes right for the Magic, they could be really good next year, they've got all the pieces to really surprise people. That said, it would be a surprise. So while I like them to finish 7th in the East, I don't foresee them going deep in the playoffs (but, again, a shock is on the table for them).
Hawks
Out:
Alex Poythress, Isaac Humphries, Justin Anderson, Taurean Prince, Miles Plumlee, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected), 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Prince and Spellman were nice young players but they were moved for better parts. The others are just others.
Re-signed:
Vince Carter (1yr/$2.6m), John Collins (team exercised option; 1yr), Trae Young (team exercised option; 1yr), Kevin Huerter (team exercised option; 1yr),
I'm cool with bringing back Vince for his farewell tour. As for Collins, Young, and Huerter, they're the future.
In:
Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando (3yr/$4.7m), Chandler Parsons, DeAndre Hunter (4yr/$14.5m guaranteed), Damian Jones, Jabari Parker (2y/$13m), Cam Reddish, Evan Turner, 2026 Warriors 2nd rd pick, 2020 Nets 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), Pelicans 2023 2nd rd pick (top 45 protected)
Hunter, Reddish and Fernando are three more rooks for the youth movement. Turner, Crabbe and Parsons will choke the salary cap but just for one year. Parker and Jones are solid vets that could look really good in this rotation.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Brandon Goodwin, Charlie Brown
Don't know them (can neither confirm nor deny that Brown is in fact a clown).
Over/Under (33.5): I got them under
I'm a fan of youth movements so I'll be watching this squad. And while I think offensively they might take a real leap this season, I think defensively they're gonna suck pretty bad. This is try-out season for Denadre Bembry and Alex Len (and Jabari Parker, too, for that matter) and they'll get their chances. The future is looking good (and they have Brooklyn's top 15 protected pick coming, too) and next summer they'll have big money to spend (though next summer will not be nearly as exciting as this past summer was). One more year, Hawks fans, then you get start getting your hopes up.
Wizards
Out:
Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker, Tarik Phillip, Bobby Portis, Chasson Randle, Devin Robinson, Tomas Satoransky, Dwight Howard
That's a lot of names that feel like ought to have contributed more. Ariza was not a good fit for them, I still believe in Dekker (though clearly no one else does), Green is nice but not enough for the Wizards, Parker just didn't have it, Portis wasn't the right fit, Satorasnky is a tough loss for them, Howard was never gonna get it done in Washington. Lot of interesting names but the Wizards are better off without all of them (except maybe Satoransky).
Re-signed:
Thomas Bryant (3yr/$25m), Mo Wagner (team exercised option; 2yr), Troy Brown Jr (team exercised option; 2yr), Bradley Beal (extension; 3yr/$100m)
Signing Beal is a great move (and doesn't make him any less trade-able, by the way), they need him and Wall to make it happen--it's they're only hope. As for the others, well, I dunno, sure why not?
In:
CJ Miles, Davis Bertans, Isaac Bonga, Morittz Wagner, Ish Smith (2yr/$12m), Isaiah Thomas (1yr/$2.3m), Admiral Scofield (3yr/$4.2m), Justin Robinson (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Chiozza, Anzejs Pasecniks, 2022 Lakers 2nd rd pick
Thomas might be fun (or he might done), otherwise I'm not feeling much for these pick-ups. I think this team is brutally bad and no matter what they do, they will probably be pretty awful.
Over/Under (26.5): I got 'em way under
Yeah, this team is not good, not going to be good any time soon. Wall getting healthy and/or a big Beal trade bringing back a crazy haul is all they got to hope for.
Hornets
Out:
Frank Kaminsky, JP Macura, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker, Shelvin Mack, Tony Parker, 2020 2nd rd pick
Yeah, losing all these guys should kill them, right? (Oh, wait, they weren't any good when they had all these guys)
Re-signed:
Willy Hernangomez (team guaranteed final year), Dwayne Bacon (team guaranteed final year)
I'm in on both of these guys, rooting for them to each have a good season.
Newly signed:
PJ Washington (2yr/$7.9m), Terry Rozier (3yr/$57m)
I can totally see PJ being the alpha dog of this team right away, he's big and tough and pretty good at everything on the court, this is a terrible situation for him to start his career but this team should offer him plenty of opportunity. Rozier...$57m...whooch....really? I'm not seeing it. Not seeing this guy as the playmaker that gets it done.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Robert Franks, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Jalen McDaniels, Joe Chealey, Kobi Simmons
Curious to see if those Martin twins can get it going in the NBA.
Over/Under (23.5): aw, hell no! No way this team gets to 23 wins!
Yeah, this is not a good squad at all. And they're in with the Wizards and I still don't think they'll get any W's! Keep your eye on PJ Washington, Mikal Bridges and the Martin twins and just pass the time til the $45m worth of Williams, Biyombo and MKG finally become spendable again.
Out:
Ryan Anderson, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson, Yante Maten, Dwyane Wade, 2022 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected)
Tough to lose that 1st rd pick but the rest are better off gone.
Re-signed:
Duncan Robinson (guaranteed final year of his contract; 1yr/$1m), Udonis Haslem (1yr/$2.6m), Derrick Jones Jr (team exercised option; 1yr), Kendrick Nunn (guaranteed final year; 1yr/$150k), Bam Adebayo (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Erik Spoelstra (multi-year extension)
Haslem is still around, huh? I've grown into the notion that sometimes coaches are more effective as players, that paying Haslem $5m to be a coach wouldn't be as effective as $2m to be a player, but I can't help thinking that whatever Haslem does it could be done outside of the salary cap. But I guess they must love him. I'm a big fan of Adebayo, think he's gonna have a big year. And Spoelstra is a great coach, more years is a great thing. The other dudes are reasonably priced.
In:
Jimmy Butler (4yr/$140m), Tyler Herro (4yr/$7.5m guaranteed), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Silva, Daryl Macon, Nuggets 2022 2nd rd pick
I think Butler is problematic but this looks to be the ideal spot for him, so hopefully he'll going back to just being a player; if so, the Heat could be really good this year. Herro looks like a stud, looks to fit nicely in that rotation. Okpala is a good value at that pick. Don't know Silva or Macon.
Over/Under (43.5): I'm going over (just barely)
I don't love this team but I think this division is kinda awful, so that alone should net the Heat a pile of W's, and they have a lot of trade options, so I think their flexibility will serve them well this season. If Butler keeps his head on, if Herro challenges for ROY, if Bam blows up, if Dragic has a killer walk year, then the Heat could really be great, even kinda dangerous in the playoffs. But that's a lot of ifs, so I think banking that they'll be good not great is much more reasonable.
Magic
Out:
Timofey Mozgov, Troy Caupain, Jerian Grant
Meh. Nothing to worry about on this side of the ledger.
Re-signed:
Nikola Vucevic (4yr/$100m), Terrence Ross (4yr/$54m), Khem Birch (2yr/$6m), Michaeal Carter-Williams (1yr), Jonathon Isaac (team exercised option; 2yr), Markelle Fultz (team exercised option; 2yr), Mo Bamba (team exercised option; 2yr)
Seems like a lot of money to spend on bringing back guys that got comfortably bounced in the first round last year, but there's a lot of talent here and if it's available to the Magic then they're probably wise to scoop it up (even if they gotta overpay). I kinda love Vucevic, he can be the anchor of a good team. Ross is a reliable veteran swingman. Birch is an underrated scorer down low. MCW can be useful off the bench. I've been skeptical of Isaac and Bamba but they'll play this year so we'll see what they can do. This season for the Magic is all about Fultz: if he can be anywhere close to what he was supposed to be then all of the sudden this looks like a really good team, with flexibility to make a deal.
In:
Al-Farouq Aminu (3yr/$29.2m)
Aminu's on-ball defense is among the best in the league, not a bad player to have around and very affordable, too.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Josh Magette, Amile Jefferson
Not sure what depth these guys provide but they're there, so good for them.
Over/Under (41.5): I got them just under
If everything goes right for the Magic, they could be really good next year, they've got all the pieces to really surprise people. That said, it would be a surprise. So while I like them to finish 7th in the East, I don't foresee them going deep in the playoffs (but, again, a shock is on the table for them).
Hawks
Out:
Alex Poythress, Isaac Humphries, Justin Anderson, Taurean Prince, Miles Plumlee, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected), 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Prince and Spellman were nice young players but they were moved for better parts. The others are just others.
Re-signed:
Vince Carter (1yr/$2.6m), John Collins (team exercised option; 1yr), Trae Young (team exercised option; 1yr), Kevin Huerter (team exercised option; 1yr),
I'm cool with bringing back Vince for his farewell tour. As for Collins, Young, and Huerter, they're the future.
In:
Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando (3yr/$4.7m), Chandler Parsons, DeAndre Hunter (4yr/$14.5m guaranteed), Damian Jones, Jabari Parker (2y/$13m), Cam Reddish, Evan Turner, 2026 Warriors 2nd rd pick, 2020 Nets 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), Pelicans 2023 2nd rd pick (top 45 protected)
Hunter, Reddish and Fernando are three more rooks for the youth movement. Turner, Crabbe and Parsons will choke the salary cap but just for one year. Parker and Jones are solid vets that could look really good in this rotation.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Brandon Goodwin, Charlie Brown
Don't know them (can neither confirm nor deny that Brown is in fact a clown).
Over/Under (33.5): I got them under
I'm a fan of youth movements so I'll be watching this squad. And while I think offensively they might take a real leap this season, I think defensively they're gonna suck pretty bad. This is try-out season for Denadre Bembry and Alex Len (and Jabari Parker, too, for that matter) and they'll get their chances. The future is looking good (and they have Brooklyn's top 15 protected pick coming, too) and next summer they'll have big money to spend (though next summer will not be nearly as exciting as this past summer was). One more year, Hawks fans, then you get start getting your hopes up.
Wizards
Out:
Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker, Tarik Phillip, Bobby Portis, Chasson Randle, Devin Robinson, Tomas Satoransky, Dwight Howard
That's a lot of names that feel like ought to have contributed more. Ariza was not a good fit for them, I still believe in Dekker (though clearly no one else does), Green is nice but not enough for the Wizards, Parker just didn't have it, Portis wasn't the right fit, Satorasnky is a tough loss for them, Howard was never gonna get it done in Washington. Lot of interesting names but the Wizards are better off without all of them (except maybe Satoransky).
Re-signed:
Thomas Bryant (3yr/$25m), Mo Wagner (team exercised option; 2yr), Troy Brown Jr (team exercised option; 2yr), Bradley Beal (extension; 3yr/$100m)
Signing Beal is a great move (and doesn't make him any less trade-able, by the way), they need him and Wall to make it happen--it's they're only hope. As for the others, well, I dunno, sure why not?
In:
CJ Miles, Davis Bertans, Isaac Bonga, Morittz Wagner, Ish Smith (2yr/$12m), Isaiah Thomas (1yr/$2.3m), Admiral Scofield (3yr/$4.2m), Justin Robinson (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Chiozza, Anzejs Pasecniks, 2022 Lakers 2nd rd pick
Thomas might be fun (or he might done), otherwise I'm not feeling much for these pick-ups. I think this team is brutally bad and no matter what they do, they will probably be pretty awful.
Over/Under (26.5): I got 'em way under
Yeah, this team is not good, not going to be good any time soon. Wall getting healthy and/or a big Beal trade bringing back a crazy haul is all they got to hope for.
Hornets
Out:
Frank Kaminsky, JP Macura, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker, Shelvin Mack, Tony Parker, 2020 2nd rd pick
Yeah, losing all these guys should kill them, right? (Oh, wait, they weren't any good when they had all these guys)
Re-signed:
Willy Hernangomez (team guaranteed final year), Dwayne Bacon (team guaranteed final year)
I'm in on both of these guys, rooting for them to each have a good season.
Newly signed:
PJ Washington (2yr/$7.9m), Terry Rozier (3yr/$57m)
I can totally see PJ being the alpha dog of this team right away, he's big and tough and pretty good at everything on the court, this is a terrible situation for him to start his career but this team should offer him plenty of opportunity. Rozier...$57m...whooch....really? I'm not seeing it. Not seeing this guy as the playmaker that gets it done.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Robert Franks, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Jalen McDaniels, Joe Chealey, Kobi Simmons
Curious to see if those Martin twins can get it going in the NBA.
Over/Under (23.5): aw, hell no! No way this team gets to 23 wins!
Yeah, this is not a good squad at all. And they're in with the Wizards and I still don't think they'll get any W's! Keep your eye on PJ Washington, Mikal Bridges and the Martin twins and just pass the time til the $45m worth of Williams, Biyombo and MKG finally become spendable again.
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Northwest Division)
Nuggets
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.
Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).
In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).
Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).
Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.
Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.
In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).
Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.
Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.
Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).
In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.
Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.
Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?
Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.
In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)
Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.
Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.
Re-signed: (none)
In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?
Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.
Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).
In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).
Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).
Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.
Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.
In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).
Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.
Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.
Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).
In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.
Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.
Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?
Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.
In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)
Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.
Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.
Re-signed: (none)
In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?
Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.
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