2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 14)

Games I saw (some of):

Georgia Tech 42-44 (8OT) (7) Georgia

I turned this on at halftime when Tech was up 17-0. I still thought UGA would win, but it was pretty clear they wouldn't be covering the 19.5 point spread. But I was blown away at Tech's offense casually slicing and dicing the vaunted Dawg defense. Tech kept converting 3rd downs, ran the ball effectively, made plays when they needed and more or less just looked like the better team. Then, deep in the 4th quarter, it happened: Tech's QB fumbled (after clearly getting a helmet-to-helmet hit that no one bothered to do anything about) and from there UGA was able to hold off the fatal blow and tie it back up. The OT's went on forever, I now actually understand the rules on college OT, and Tech had their chance in the 1st OT to go for 2 and end the game, but honestly I'm not sure the coach knew what he was doing. Look: after the 1st OT, both teams are required to for a 2-point conversion after a TD, so why not just do it after the 1st one? If you tie the game with a TD in the 1st OT, you have the advantage to finish the game...why not just go for it? Anyway, UGA crawled back out of their hole and staved off disaster, but take away that fumble and they lose in regulation--and UGA certainly wasn't dominant in OT. UGA just isn't as good this year and it isn't simply their stiff QB, this defense gets turned around. This playoff is gonna be weird. 

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern Munich

I was in and out of a bunch of games this weekend but the big Bundesliga match was the most interesting to me. As a Dortmund fan I had low expectations, it has been a frustrating season so far, but when Dortmund went up before halftime, I was piqued. The game had very little offense, not match action around either goal, Bayern was a little better but never got anything dangerous going with any consistency. Felt like Dortmund was gonna sneak out the W, but Munich (of course!) got the equalizer late on some chaos after a free kick. *sigh* Hey, man, a draw against the best team in the league and your #1 rival is a good result, but, man, the W was in hand. 

Michigan 13-10 (2) Ohio State

Man, I just kept waiting for the Buckeye offense to get going and it just never did. I grant that the Wolverines still have a superior defense but the rest of the squad has taken a major step back since last year's championship run and I would've thought this was easy money for an Ohio State squad that hasn't beaten Michigan in 4 years. Well....I guess not. I've seen enough of both of these teams this year to know that the Buckeyes are clearly easily the better team but they just never got going in this game. Great W for the Wolverines--they can tell themselves they had a GREAT season! Puzzling L for the Buckeyes, this lost them the Big 10! They're still gonna do damage in the playoff, but this one was on their racket and they let it get away.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Oregon, (3) Texas, (4) Penn State, (5) Notre Dame, (8) Tennessee, (9) Southern Methodist, (10) Indiana, (11) Boise State, (13) Alabama, (14) Mississippi, (15) South Carolina, (16) Arizona State, (18) Iowa State, (19) Brigham Young, (21) Missouri, (22) UNLV, (23) Illinois, (25) Colorado

Won but did not impress

(7) Georgia. I dunno, man, UGA strikes no fear in me these days. 

Bad beat

(20) Texas A&M. A&M just isn't as good as Texas, they avoided a blowout but they were never in this game. 

(24) Kansas State. The Wildcats had a chance to resurrect their season, but Iowa State is the better squad. 

Not so good

(2) Ohio State. Still losing to Michigan? WTF is going on? 

(6) Miami. Called it! Syracuse has actually been quietly pretty good this year, while the Hurricanes have plowed through a soft schedule. Should've won money on this one. 

(12) Clemson. I thought it would be Clemson winning with a late FG but it was South Carolina. Close games yield unpredictable results. 

(17) Tulane. Every year they either beat Memphis or they don't. This year was a don't. 

Next week's CHAMPIONSHIP matches:

Mountain West: (19) UNLV v (10) Boise State (Haven't watched either of these guys all year long, I look forward to correcting that mistake this weekend)

American Athletic: Tulane v Army (both teams had moments this season, not sure who is the better team)

Big 12: (16) Iowa State v (12) Arizona State (holy shit! I just now realized that ASU is in the Big 12! (Yeah, I'm not very good at this football-watching thing); both teams seem to be getting hot at the right time, should be a fun match)

SEC: (5) Georgia v (3) Texas (a rematch of UT's lone L this season, will they get their revenge? I think they will)

Big 10: (3) Penn State v (1) Oregon (okay, this is interesting; I think Oregon is the best team in all of college football, and while Penn State has trouble against the big boys, the Nittany Lions are a solid team and not gonna be an easy out)

ACC: (18) Clemson v (8) Southern Methodist (SMU has been one of the more consistent squads all year long, Clemson has been up and down; gotta go with the Mustangs)

My Top 12

(Aw, crap, I gotta do one of these? Look: for years and years we've measured the top teams by L's, who had the worst losses against those that had "forgivable" losses. I think that still works fine for the top 4. But expanding out to 12 requires a deeper look at the good W's. For example, Georgia Tech has not made an appearance in the top 25 this season but if they had completed the W over Georgia the other night, that would've given them 3 top-10 W's this season and why not throw them into the playoff? Look, man, you're looking for teams that have unexpected wins, teams that have gone above and beyond, those are the teams that are gonna give better bang for the buck in the playoff. Meh, I'll probably still end up with the same 12 teams I was going to anyway, just a thought for future seasons)

1 Oregon

2 Texas

3 Notre Dame

4 Penn State

5 Ohio State

6 Southern Methodist

7 Indiana

8 Boise State

9 Arizona State

10 Georgia

11 South Carolina

12 Tennessee

(Just couldn't get there with Iowa State, Brigham Young or Alabama. As for, Mississippi, UNLV, Miami and Clemson, they never really even got to my radar. I know, I know: I backloaded three SEC squads in there, even though I have never been less impressed with the SEC than this year. But I think South Carolina is playing well lately and UGA for all their faults do still deserve to be in the playoff conversation and the Vols, well, I dunno, I just thought they were a little better than ISU, BYU or Bama)

2023-24 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I saw (some of):

South Carolina 14-24 (1) Georgia

Yes, South Carolina was up 14-3 and Georgia really looked lame in the 1st half. But in the 2nd half, UGA did their thing and pretty well stomped the Cocks. Not an overwhelming performance--indeed, kinda crappy for long stretches--but they got the job done on an SEC field and that's still pretty impressive. Not an inspiring performance but they can't all be classics; I've still got my eye on QB Rattler, curious to see if he sneaks back into that 1st round grade he had so long ago.

(3) Florida State 31-29 Boston College

Look, the score isn't awe-inspiring and it isn't exactly as if the Seminoles ran roughshod over BC, but I watched most of this game and it never felt to me like the Seminoles were going to lose. The score you see is because Florida State basically stopped playing in the 4th quarter (not a good habit to get into) and BC made a furious run at piling up some points on the way out. Again, never felt to me like BC even had a chance to win this game, though the score looks they might have. Impressive win for Seminoles? Well, no, but not scary either, just a lazy 4th quarter. 

(10) Alabama 17-3 South Florida

This game was a frustrating watch on TV. The weather was horrendous in the 1st half and the cameras were all static and made for weird switching between angles (WTF? Seriously, what was going on there? Did all the cameramen leave at halftime?). And in the 1st half, Alabama couldn't get any offense going at all and it really did feel like they might be in some trouble. But after half time, they only kinda sucked and South Florida never got much going either, so the result was never really in much doubt. But Alabama's first QB was pretty awful and then their 2nd QB was, too. Boy, the days of going from Jones to Hurts to Tua seem long gone, don't they? Alabama is still gonna be a good squad and a tough out but they clearly do not have the QB play nor the overall offensive performance that they've featured for the last decade or so. Throw in that Clemson looks like an emperor without clothes and UGA's ascendance appears to be complete. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Michigan, (3) Florida State, (4) Texas, (5) Ohio State, (7) Penn State, (8) Washington, (9) Notre Dame, (12) Utah, (13) Oregon, (14) Louisiana State, (16) Oregon State, (17) Mississippi, (19) Oklahoma, (20) North Carolina, (21) Duke, (22) Miami, (23) Washington State, (24) UCLA, (25) Iowa

Won but did not impress

(10) Alabama. Easy to blame the lack of scoring on the torrential downpour in the 1st half and the lackluster quality of the field itself; but I watched the Tide trot out two QB's--TWO!--that sucked and that hasn't happened in decades. So the Tide escaped with a W on the road, good for them, but they've got real problems, the kind of problems they haven't seen in eons. 

(18) Colorado. Yeah, yeah, big rivalry game, both coaches were squawking all week, I get that this was a grudge match and everyone played hard. But Colorado has already put up a coupla nice W's, got good looking talent all over the field, if they were as good as we think they are, they would've mushed Colorado State into a fine thin paste and it does not appear that that happened.  

Bad beat

(Should Kansas State go here? Or Tennessee?  I don't think so)

Not so good

(11) Tennessee. Gotta win at Florida if you want to win the SEC. I thought this was a W for the Vols and they didn't collect. 

(15) Kansas State. Missouri has their moments but I don't think this year is one of their moments, not saying the Tigers on the road are a pushover but if the Wildcats had actual top 20 pretensions then they should've taken this one. 

Next week's intriguing matches

(4) Florida State @ Clemson (all right, 'Noles, this is your chance to really put the knife in and twist it, let's see how good Florida State really is)

(19) Colorado @ (10) Oregon (I'm telling ya: as good as Colorado has been so far, they can't be really be that good and the day will come when they hit the windshield like a fat mosquito; on the other hand, they clearly have enough talent to be a problem for good teams; so who gets what happening to them this Saturday? I'll be tuning in)

(22) UCLA @ (11) Utah (I suspect UCLA isn't actually that good, but Utah might not be either, so gotta keep an eye on this one)

(15) Mississippi @ (13) Alabama (is Alabama ready to smack down a team they routinely smack down or will their spotty QB play doom them?)

(14) Oregon State @ (21) Washington State (who knows? I suspect they've both overrated)

(6) Ohio State @ (9) Notre Dame (wow, had to go 6 games deep to get to the true marquis match? Sorry, about criticizing last week's soft slate, NCAA, you definitely made up for it this week)

(24) Iowa @ (7) Penn State (If the Nittany Lions are as good as we think, they should probably torch the Hawkeyes, but perhaps that's an unfair jinx....but still, they should roll the Hawkeyes)

2021-22 NCAA Football (Week 12)

Games I saw (some of):

(3) Oregon 7-38 (23) Utah

Yeah, I saw that coming. Well, I didn't see that beatdown coming--dude, when Utah stuck the punt return as the clock expired to make it 28-0 at halftime, gah, the shit was over! Utah effortlessly moved down the field, just as effortlessly swatted away everything Oregon was bringing (just could not convert on 3rd or 4th down and missed 2 FGs), then piled on right at the end, nothing went right for Oregon this evening. Utah looked kinda nice, just hammered a top-5 team, they might end on a winning streak. 

(7) Michigan State 7-56 (4) Ohio State

Yipes! Once I realized, 'Oh Buckeyes are gonna score every time they touch the ball', and that was early on, it was pretty much over. Somehow it didn't matter what Sparty did, they just didn't matter at all. The outcome was merely to decide how bad the beating would be. I got a weird feeling that Michigan State will shrug this off and get back to business (*gulp* I already feel bad for Penn State's QB and that defense is gonna get run on). The Buckeyes are rolling right now, (I'd be Claude Rains-level shocked if Michigan pulled off the upset, but we'll see, gonna be fun), the playoff is taking shape and they look to be an interesting piece. 

Nebraska 28-35 (15) Wisconsin

Two fat bullies all bullying up on each other, it was a funner game than it probably should've been, felt like Wisconsin was always just a moment away from finishing off the game. Went right to the end, though, the Badgers never could quite put them away. A lot of tough defense followed by big plays, gritty but stylin', too. I'm still not impressed with Nebraska. Wisconsin should've/could've put this game away a lot sooner, but Wisconsin had a tough opening to the season and this is all garbage time play, they're a fun team, they're loose and look to make plays, but even when they win, those 3 L's are gonna weigh them down for a while. 

Iowa State 21-28 (13) Oklahoma

OU's vanilla offense is so weird: it feels like they should be magically putting points on the board without effort and yet they're not like that at all. Buckeyes, Wolverines and the Irish have found their offenses, the Sooners still have not, even going to super-Frosh (I like Williams) hasn't really made that much difference. I don't know what their deal is, that offense just is not dangerous when it seems like it ought to be. Iowa State is a nice team, a thorny team for good squads and while they had a nice entrenched defense, they didn't move the ball that well or seem like much of a threat and yet OU let them hang around. I can't help feel like there's more talent on this OU side than is getting into the game somehow, there's a plan that could make them perfect, did they think they could just walk to the playoffs? 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Alabama, (4) Ohio State, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Michigan, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Oklahoma State, (11) Baylor, (12) Ole Miss, (14) Brigham Young, (15) Wisconsin, (16) Texas A&M, (17) Iowa, (18) Pittsbrugh, (19) San Diego State, (20) North Carolina State, (22) UT-San Antonio, (23) Utah, (24) Houston, (25) Mississippi State

Won but did not impress

(13) Oklahoma. Yeah, I've complained about OU enough today. 

Bad beat

(7) Michigan State. They were so out of this game so quick, that they should wipe their memories that this even happened. 

(10) Wake Forest. Yeah, honestly: unranked, 3-loss Clemson is still better than Wake Forest. You know it, I know it, the American people know it. So even though Wake Forest still (I suppose) could've believed themselves still in the hunt for the Championship, they're not even as good as Clemson's worst team in years. Clemson is balling right now, too, not in playoff mode but they might could kick the shit out of some poor unsuspecting...(ah crap, it's gonna be Kentucky, isn't it?)...you know Clemson is surely the best 3-loss team: Georgia, NC State, Pitt were all good/ranked this season, Clemson lost to teams they usually beat but not to bad teams

Not so good

(3) Oregon. I can't say as I ever believed in Oregon (man, that Stanford game is hanging with me like an overcooked brisket) and the thrashing they got from Utah was quick and thorough. That W over Ohio State looks better and better but, man, Utah was the only other good team they played all year and they got smoked. I just don't see anything in this Oregon side, they're not a playoff team and I suspect they get smoked in a high profile bowl. 

Next week's intriguing matches

(9) Ole Miss @ Mississippi State (SEC West slug fest, doesn't really matter but could be a fun game)

North Carolina @ (20) North Carolina State (upset alert; State should finish this off but we'll see)

(18) Wake Forest @ Boston College (BC can be spoiler, Clemson sneaks back into the ACC championship with an L from Wake Forest)

(2) Ohio State @ (5) Michigan (game o' the week! I've never really warmed up to this Michigan squad but they'll be hosting the red hot Buckeyes; should be fun into the 4th quarter, right?)

(3) Alabama @ Auburn (doubt this will be a game but you never know)

(10) Oklahoma @ (7) Oklahoma State (this is your Big-12 Championship game really)

My top 6-ish:

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (3) Cincinnati, (4) Alabama, (5) Notre Dame, (6) Oklahoma/Oklahoma State

And I'd say....If Michigan beats Ohio State, then Cincinnati and Alabama each move up a spot, Michigan goes to #4. Either way, the loser of this game will likely finish #7.

And also....winner of OU/OSU jumps to #5 and Notre Dame probably doesn't get higher than #6 (unless UGA beats Bama).

And looking even further ahead...the outcome of UGA-Bama is just for seeding: Georgia still finishes top-4 either way (I think Bama and Georgia would switch places), Alabama drops to #6 with a loss (won't fall past the losers of Buckeyes/Wolverines or Sooners/Cowboys). 

2021-22 NCAA Football (Week 6)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Alabama 38-41 Texas A&M

Fun game! Wtf?!?! A&M was absolutely brilliant in the 1st half, (mostly sucked in the 2nd half), then reappeared down the stretch to get the needed 10 points to finish it off. Great W for A&M--probably one of the greatest in A&M history. Bama's pass rush disappeared for long stretches of time and I know everyone will blame the QB, but I thought the Tide WR's sucked until the 4th quarter--lotta drops and they just didn't make plays til too late in the match. Tide kept acting like they had the game under control even though they pretty much never did. I don't believe in A&M and I'm still not a fan of the their QB, but hey man, giant effort, made the plays, stood up to the big boys and stuck 'em in the eye. Congrats, great win, fun game. As for 'Bama, well, they gotta win out (which is what they were planning on doing anyway) and they'll still be in the playoff, right?

(4) Penn State 20-23 (3) Iowa

Fun game! In the 1st half, the Nittany Lions kept making dumb turnovers but that defense was so good they avoided too much danger and even had the lead at the half. But once their starting QB went out right before halftime, it was probably only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes clawed their way back. People will blame the backup QB but it was Penn State's O-line that fell apart (what's the record for false start penalties? Telling me that was the QB?) and they deserve the blame. But Penn State's defense still almost held up, coupla big plays late made the difference for Iowa. Iowa won on smarts (took a penalty on a 3rd down play that struck me as unnecessary, but the move worked in field position and running some clock; brilliant move). Good W for Iowa but I suspect Penn State (when healthy) is the better team and if they meet again in the B-10 finals, this game will probably be totally different.

(6) Oklahoma 55-48 (21) Texas

Fun game! (Good week!) Texas scored on the first play from scrimmage, held OU to 3-and-out, blocked a punt on the 5th play from scrimmage, then converted another TD on the 7th play of the game, putting them up 14-0 less than two minutes in (and they should've scored on plays 5 & 6). On the one hand, it was a whipsaw WTF kinda opening, on the other hand you could tell right off this was gonna be a crazy shootout game. And it was. Back and forth, loved UT's RB (Bijan Robinson--that dude can ball!), Spencer Rattler got benched for the fan friendly frosh (though they inexplicably brought him back for a 2-pt conversion), both defenses made plays and blew coverages, the scoring never stopped, breathlessly awesome action and Oklahoma finally looked like a top-10 squad (though I'm still meh on Texas). Okay, now that Oregon, Penn State and Alabama have stepped aside, Oklahoma is firmly back in control of their own destiny (and everyone's loving the frosh instead of the pre-season Heisman candidate; ouch, gonna be tough to go back to the old horse now that everyone has seen the new horse).

(9) Michigan 32-29 Nebraska

Look, Michigan needs to shine out, they need to run up some scores, get some impressive W's and take charge of games. They don't do any of that and I think they're overrated. Felt like Michigan was spinning their wheels all through this match and I think Nebraska sucks. The B-10 teams (outside of Penn State) have yet to get to the meaty parts of their schedule so they're all kinda overrated for now. And I don't see Michigan rising to the top of this conference. But we'll see.

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Georgia, (3) Iowa, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Ohio State, (11) Michigan State, (14) Notre Dame, (16) Kentucky, (17) Ole Miss, (19) Wake Forest, (20) Florida, (22) Arizona State, (24) Southern Methodist, (25) San Diego State

Won but did not impress

(9) Michigan. When you get to the top-10, it's time to get signature W's, not signatures saves against weak opponents. I'm sorry but I'm still so unimpressed with Nebraska that to me this just looks like another just-good-enough kinda victory for the Wolverines and I'm still not in on them (beat the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions and Spartans an we'll see--they haven't played any of the key games on the schedule yet so why should we care?). 

Bad beat

(4) Penn State. I suspect Penn State was actually the better team and if they get their rematch with Iowa (and they will if they beat Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State), I'd pick them to win. 

(21) Texas. Fun game, weird game, Texas came to play and they put on a good show but finally made Oklahoma look like a championship squad.

Not so good

(1) Alabama. Oof! Oh well, still gotta beat UGA, so weirdly, nothing has changed for 'Bama.

(10) Brigham Young. I feel like they just had a bad day but win or lose, they probably weren't going anywhere anyway, so they've been outed but no one's really surprised. 

Next week's interesting matchups

(12) Oklahoma State @ (25) Texas (meh, I'm not really that interested but they're both ranked and Texas looks awake now, so probably should be a fun game)

(11) Kentucky @ (1) Georgia (game o' the week! I'd be shocked if the Cats put a dent on the Dogs, but the UK defense is legit and this'll probably be Georgia's toughest match all year (hard to imagine anyone was circling that Kentucky game on the schedule, but here we are))

(5) Alabama @ Mississippi State (I'm curious to see how Bama bounces back because I still got the feeling that Miss State might actually be the 2nd best team in the SEC West, Bama better bring their A game)

2021-22 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Saw some of: 

(12) Oregon 35-28 (3) Ohio State

Kept waiting for the Buckeyes to take control of this match and they never did. Good W for Oregon, they were the better team throughout on both sides of the ball--and I don't think this was a just 'any given Saturday' phenomenon, I was really much more impressed with Oregon than with Ohio State. The QB was firm, the RB was a beast who made big plays, the speed on the edge defense was impressive and the made the big plays late when they needed to.  Oregon was just flat out good, a deserved top 5 team for now. 

(10) Iowa 27-17 (9) Iowa State

Man, Iowa was the better team but State made so many fluky mistakes, that it warped my perception. I'm pretty sure Iowa is for real but this game kinda makes it hard to tell because it doesn't feel possible that they were this much worse than Iowa State. Good W for Iowa, if they can keep it going against Penn State and Wisconsin, they could find themselves in the playoff--definitely a team to keep an eye on. 

(13) Florida 42-20 South Florida

The Gators so dominated the 1st half of this game that it's easy to overlook how soft they looked in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong, Florida was the better team and should be a competitive squad all year. But the way they mailed it in after halftime is a little creepy. Oh, they got 'Bama next week, perhaps I'm just being overly critical. 

(5) Texas A&M 10-7 Colorado

Gotta be honest: I was totally rooting for Colorado to sting the Aggies. All I saw was the 4th quarter when it felt like the Buffaloes were finally wearing down. A&M fumbled away the go-ahead TD at the goal line, but were able to hold Colorado off and then get that go-ahead TD on their next possession to steal a late W on the road. Yeah, I get it: early season, non-conference road games don't get the juices flowing, but overcoming those letdowns is what a good team does. Am I supposed to be impressed that they pulled out the W or suspicious that it took them so long to subdue a mediocre opponent? (For now, I'm more suspicious than impressed)

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Alabama, (2) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (6) Clemson, (7) Cincinnati, (10) Iowa, (11) Penn State, (17) Coastal Carolina, (18) Wisconsin, (19) Virginia Tech, (20) Ole Miss, (23) Arizona State, (24) North Carolina, (25) Auburn 

Won but did not impress

(5) Texas A&M. (see above: more suspicious than impressed)

(8) Notre Dame. Come on, Irish. You trying to get the coach fired or what?

(22) Miami. I get that at home against App State isn't always the easiest match, but come on, Hurricanes. In order to get back in the mix (an L to Alabama is not a season-killer), you gotta handle your business and this is not inspiring confidence. 

Bad beat 

(9) Iowa State. Man, it was not Iowa State's day, they Sideshow Bob-bed that rake over and over again this afternoon. They can't be this bad but how good are they? I went with 'bad beat' because I think Iowa is legit good and I would be surprised if Iowa State plays this bad again this year (which means watch out, Oklahoma!).  

Not good

(3) Ohio State. I was impressed by Oregon, I think they're really good and I could've put this in the 'bad beat' category, but I was wildly unimpressed with the Buckeyes. I was underwhelmed by their LBs and their pass rush, nor did I love their QB (perhaps the most uninspiring 500 yds/3 TD performance I've ever seen) or their special teams. This is a nice team but not a classic Buckeye squad. And after watching Iowa this week and Penn State last week, feels like the Buckeyes could be in some trouble this season. They've bounced back from early season losses before, we'll see how this focuses them going forward. 

(14) Southern Cal. Not good, felt like USC was ready to have a bust out season, but if you can't beat Stanford, you don't go far. 

(15) Texas. I had a feeling Arkansas was waiting for the Longhorns. And the fact that I'm still not at all impressed by Arkansas is not good for Texas.

(21) Utah. Hmmm....so is Utah overrated or is BYU underrated?

Next week's interesting matchups

(8) Cincinnait @ Indiana (yeah, I know this isn't the 1962 NCAA tournament, but it is an interesting test for the Bearcats; Indiana can sling it and they've already played a top 10 team this year, they won't be intimidated)

(1) Alabama @ (11) Florida (boom! Your marquee matchup of the week!)

(22) Auburn @ (10) Penn State (hmmm....this is an out-of-nowhere match...okay, I'm in)

(19) Arizona State @ (23) BYU (finally gonna the age old question: are either of these teams actually any good?)

2021 NCAA Final Four (the after)

(2) Houston 59-78 (1) Baylor

Houston started slow, Baylor just kept hitting shots. Not a bad game, Baylor took control quickly and kinda squelched out Houston. Good run for Houston, good season, they dominated most everyone they played til the Final Four, that's not bad. 

Baylor is good, man, I'm really beginning to appreciate what good on-ball defenders they are and what good shooters they are. They're a surprisingly deep squad, too. 

(11) UCLA 90-93 (OT) (1) Gonzaga

Amazing game! Back and forth, buzzer beater finish, two good scoring squads just wailin' on each other for 45 mins. Everyone played well, everyone shot well, every possession was fascinating. A great game, a great watch. UCLA caps a long strange trip just missing a shot at the Championship. 

Gonzaga shows all the doubters that they can hang with anyone, that being pushed won't destroy them. 

(1) Baylor 86-70 (1) Gonzaga

Going in, I thought Baylor would be the toughest team Gonzaga has seen all season (perhaps in many seasons), a team that would not shrink from the undefeated #1 team, everyone's pick to win it all, and would score enough to hang no matter how well Gonzaga executed. I wouldn't have been shocked by Baylor stealing it late, but I figured Gonzaga would control throughout, even if the game felt tighter than anything they've had in a while. I still felt Gonzaga would handle Baylor and (most likely) outscore them. Gonzaga really is good; Baylor has a lot of good athletes; but I figured Gonzaga's ball movement would create more quick shots and Gonzaga would win on volume and free throws. 

Yeah, it took about two minutes to chuck the pre-game forecast out. Baylor came to play. That on-ball defense shook Gonzaga and the way Baylor was drilling 3's and getting offensive rebounds, it felt like Gonzaga was outmanned and in for a struggle. With about 8 mins to go in the 1st half, Baylor was up 38-19. 

From there, Gonzaga had a decent run before halftime, whittled the lead down to 10 and showed the path for a way back into the game: patient offense, quit turning the ball over, lure Baylor into fouls, hit your FT's, get every rebound, pray Baylor stops nailing these 3's. Baylor shot too well, played too hard in the 1st half, in the 2nd half they'd wither, fall into foul trouble and Gonzaga would make up the deficit to steal the W.

And for Baylor the game plan was also clear: keep hitting 3's (and get ready for the trophy presentation). 

Gonzaga had a chance to salvage the season, go out strong and smart and steal back the Championship they thought they'd already earned. But they couldn't keep their roll going after halftime: Gonzaga missed FT's, Baylor kept hitting 3's, that was ball game. 

Baylor came to play, then lapsed a little before halftime, then clamped down in the 2nd half.  Nice W for Baylor, really a smooth game from them from the jump, they were all great, everyone was hitting shots, everyone made plays on defense, they avoided foul trouble in the 2nd half, which just heightened the advantage they already possessed in bench depth. So outside of a lull before halftime, Baylor straight dominated this game in every way. All hail, they were really good all year long and flat took this tournament for themselves, a fun team to watch, and by the Final they were really humming.(*)  Good work.

(*) Reminded me of the 2019 NCAA football championship when Clemson dusted off Alabama. 

Bama had been #1 all year long, everyone assumed they would crush every other team, except possibly Clemson. You knew Clemson had talent but their schedule is just not as interesting as Alabama's, so you couldn't tell how good they actually were. They were the only team that even had a shot at hanging with the Tide, so...could they? Answer was 'yes', Clemson straight f'n flayed Alabama, while we all just gaped and went 'oh shit...'. Not necessarily a shock that Clemson won the game, but the ease with which they controlled every second of the game (while slicing and dicing the consensus favorite) was jarring and impressive.

Everyone knew Baylor was good and they were ballin' in the tourney, but until you actually saw them out there with Gonzaga, it was real easy to think Gonzaga was the better team. Actually, they were both really good teams, but head to head Baylor's defense just kept Gonzaga from getting anything going and the way Baylor drilled 3's....looking back on it, the fact that Baylor only won by 16 seems kinda weird and just highlights Baylor's dominance: Gonzaga actually shot the ball pretty well and were still never in the game.

2021 NCAA Final Four (the before)

(2) Houston - (1) Baylor (-4) (o/u 132.5)

Just noticed that Houston has only played double digit seeds ((15) Cleveland St, (10) Rutgers, (11) Syracuse, (12) Oregon St), feasting off the upsets that got handed to them. I like Houston, I think they're a nice team, I think on any given night they can be a really great team and maybe they have that in them. But they haven't seen anyone nearly as good as Baylor in many weeks now and I gotta think that catches up to them. Baylor is a really good team and they have the weakness of some really good teams: they got overconfident and slow down before the game is won. I can see a scenario where Houston gets hot late and steals it. But I think Baylor makes FT's and wins going away. I'll say Baylor 71-60 (Baylor and the under)

(11) UCLA - (1) Gonzaga (-13.5) (o/u 135.5)

Frankly, UCLA should've lost to Alabama and Michigan, Abilene Christian was a gift, BYU is nice but not an overly impressive win and Michigan St was as bad as they've been in years, so UCLA's run has been pretty lucky so far. Gonzaga doesn't win with luck, they win by being better at every position and every phase of the game. So...yeah, I can see UCLA putting up points to keep it from being a blowout, but I'm expecting Gonzaga to be in control throughout. I'll say Gonzaga 78-66 (UCLA and the over)

2021 Sweet 16 (Day Two)

(5) Creighton 65-83 (1) Gonzaga

Creighton was nice, had a coupla nice scoring spurts. But Gonzaga is good at every position and disciplined and they're gonna outscore most every team they play. Southern Cal is a curveball.   

(4) Florida State 58-76 (1) Michigan

I thought the refs did the Seminoles no favor early on, lot of 50/50 calls that just put FSU on the backfoot right off the bat. Michigan took advantage and throttled them throughout. (Meh, I don't usually blame the refs, but I thought here they inserted themselves a little over much that early in the game) Michigan is tough and they got a bunch of good scorers, they're a tough out, and I'd say they're clearly better than UCLA.

(11) UCLA 88-78 (ot) (2) Alabama

Fun game, back and forth, felt like Bama would finally get the upper hand after Juzang fouled out but it kinda flipped on them. Anyway, nice Bama buzzer beater to tie it up but UCLA got all point-happy in OT and salted it away. Good W for UCLA, overcame adversity against a top notch opponent. Michigan is rolling right now but the Bruins might give them a scare. 

(7) Oregon 82-68 (6) Southern Cal

I didn't see any of this one. Seems like USC got hotter quicker and piled on as Oregon faltered. Southern Cal is probably the weirdest, most dangerous side Gonzaga has played all year, this is probably the most logical upset if Gonzaga is gonna stumble. 

PS -- Oh yeah, I hate replay. I hate it. I have never liked it, never needed it and the more intrusive it becomes, the less I like it or need it. Shit, they still get the calls wrong, so why are they wasting so much time? I hate replay. Hate it in all sports. (*)

(*) Replay works in one sport: tennis. First, there's only one thing to look at: in or out, nothing much else to even considering. And second, they show the replay in the stadium, the players pause, and the audience all watches the replay together and sees the definitive result and then we move on. Every other sport it's annoying pain in the ass, in tennis its actually kinda fun and helpful. But in no other sport is replay worth as much time as it gets. 

2021 NCAA Tournament (Day Four)

 Games I saw (some of):

(7) Oregon 95-80 (2) Iowa

Oregon shot well, got a nice early lead, and played at a pace that Iowa couldn't keep up with. Iowa was a nice team but bland and probably overperformed, all in all. I don't mean to bust on Garza, he's really one of the greats, but he's kind of an empty calories numbers guy; he put up 36/9 and that made no difference whatsoever. Oregon plays hard and fast, if they knock down shots, they can keep winning. 

(8) Oklahoma 71-87 (1) Gonzaga

I figured Gonzaga would mostly buffalo over the competition and Okla is just the latest victim. Sooners were okay, they weren't bad at anything and it felt like Reaves was capable of some big moments. But Gonzaga is good at pretty much every phase of the game. Gonzaga isn't unbeatable but they'd have to play pretty bad for most teams to catch them on any given night. 

(8) LSU 78-86 (1) Michigan

Michigan started slow but they were just better than LSU. LSU feasted off sloppy Wolverine TO's but once UM stopped turning it over than the natural weight of offensive efficiency took over. Tigers still made it a fun game late but Michigan is looking pretty good right now.

(6) Southern Cal 85-51 (3) Kansas

Not much to say about this one: Southern Cal just kept making shots and Kansas never got any scoring going at all. This one was over quick, so quick it's hard to tell how good USC actually is. The Pac-12 is looking good, though, much stronger showing than I was anticipating. 

Games I saw (pretty much) none of:

(14) Abilene Christian 47-67 (11) UCLA

Not as much of a blowout as I would've thought. This looked to me like a match of the most underrated #11 seed of all time and the most overrated #14 seed, seriously thought UCLA would win by 40. 

(13) Ohio 58-72 (5) Creighton

(5) Colorado 53-71 (4) Florida St

(10) Maryland 77-96 (2) Alabama

Day #4 MVP: Hmmmm....no individual players really stood out, this was a day of good team efforts throttling weak team efforts. 

2021 NCAA Tournament (Day Three)

Games I saw (some of):

(8) Loyola-Chicago 71-58 (1) Illinois

OMG, great game. Loyola pretty much dominated from the jump, up at the 1st tv timeout, never trailed. Grutwig! I can't say enough about him, he was great, all time great, pleasure to watch. Seriously: the most masterful 2-way performance I've probably ever seen, like Olujawon in his prime, peak Mark Messier, old school Klaw-level Kawhi, the way Loyola swarmed reminded me of the Lawrence Taylor Football Giants--yes! I just compared Grutwig to Lawrence fuckin' Taylor! He roamed like a LB, kept the center of the floor perfectly cleared out leaving him free to drop on Cockburn from the weakside, everything they did worked. That was just on the defensive end; on the other end he was prime Chris Webber: locked down at the FT line, swinging the game to his will, they had so many brilliant weakside cuts. Dude, this guy was amazing--yes, Lawrence Taylor, Chris Webber, Mark Messier, and I'll throw in Arvdyas Sabonis just to finish it off. This guy was fucking amazing today and I think he's gonna be the MVP of this tourney. 

This was a clinical display of the difference btw an NBA prospect and a good college player (what baseball might call "4A"): Grutwig (Loyola-C) controlled the game on both ends of the court as well as any single performance in fucking decades. But you know what: he's never gonna make it out of summer league, might play his way into the 2nd rd if he's lucky. Whereas Kofi Cockburn (Ill-C) is going top 10 and deservedly so. See, Krutwig is the experienced big man that's wrecking shop at both ends, that half Draymond Green/half Chris Paul mythical creature that all the Moreys dream of. But he ain't gonna do that in the NBA, that path is not available to him. At the next level, he'll be playing the 3 and guarding perimeter, lucky to get garbage time mins in his first contract. He can play professionally because he's that smart, if his body holds out, he can be a lifelong pro baller, but not in the NBA. Why? Because there's no way that guy guards Joel Embiid, then Julius Randle, then Durant, then chips on Tatum/Brown, no way; so he's not an NBA center; nor is he a wingman or point-forward, either. He doesn't have a position at the next level, he's too uniquely suited to the NCAA game. Cockburn, on the other hand, oh yeah, he'll do fine. Cockburn, wow, that kid is huge, like...this kid is huge, he can bang at the next level, he'll be fine. He's not a stiff, he moves well, but I didn't see any particular nose for the ball and he's got rudimentary drop step skills, so he can score a little, I guess. But body wise, he can play the defense, he can play the minutes, so I expect him to be a high draft pick and well positioned for a second contract. Krutwig is a great NCCA player, feels like he's about to have one of the great tourneys of all time. 

I'll go ahead and say it right now: I don't think they beat Gonzaga, but they can beat anyone else, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Loyola against Gonzaga in the Final. These guys are good and Krutwig is a NCAA jedi and I hope he rocks the fuck outta this tourney. And the crew he's with all work together, they methodically find their shots, the team defense is amazing, (their transition defense was maybe the best I've ever seen, they were never out of position in the entire first half!), and they even know how to spread out their fouls (how'd they give up so many fouls and yet never have anyone in foul trouble?). I think Illinois was legitimately the second best team in this tourney and Loyola just tore them apart like a fat kid going through puddings on Xmas morn. It could be they just played the game of their lives and now they are spent; but I don't think so, I think they played an ordinary game against a good opponent, and they smoked said opponent. And I think they'll do it again. I wholeheartedly believe this team can beat anyone left in this tourney, except maybe Gonzaga. Yeah, would not be at all shocked to see Loyola in the Finial. 

(9) Wisconsin 63-76 (1) Baylor

Kinda predictable game: Wisc played hard and hung around but Baylor had a more dynamic offense and slightly better defense and controlled throughout. Badgers needed buckets and they never came through. Baylor is a nice team, gonna be a tough out against anyone.

(11) Syracuse 75-72 (3) West Virginia

Fun game! Syracuse shot up a good lead early, then in the 2nd half West Virginia made a run, took the lead, but Syracuse got hot again down the stretch and finished it off. Some good back and forth so even though Syracuse mostly controlled the game, the Mountaineers made it a game to the last possession. Two even teams, Syracuse shot better and they're moving on (don't they do this every year? Come in as an underdog and make the Elite Eight?). 

Games I saw (pretty much) none of:

(6) Texas Tech 66-68 (3) Arkansas

(10) Rutgers 60-63 (2) Houston

Houston outscored Rutgers 18-6 in the final 8 mins. Houston made their most of their chances late. Good W. Game effort from Rutgers but this Houston team is used to winning. 

(15) Oral Roberts 81-78 (7) Florida

Florida was up 69-62 at the 8-min TO; Oral Roberts outscored them 19-9 after that. These Oral Roberts guys are good, Abmas and Obanor are monsters, if they can keep getting by playing their starters 40 mins a night, they can keep winning.

(13) North Texas 61-84 (5) Villanova

(12) Oregon St 80-70 (4) Oklahoma St

Day #3 Conference breakdown: Big 10 (0-3), Big 12 (1-3), SEC (1-1), ACC (1-0), Pac-12 (1-0)

Day #3 MVP Cameron Krutwig (Loyola-Chicago), Krutwig was the shit. Abmas and Obanor (Oral Roberts) again, those two are badasses.

2021 NCAA Tourney (Day One)

 Games I saw (some of): 

(15) Oral Roberts 75-72 (OT) (2) Ohio State

Hey, if you watched the game, this was not a surprising result, Oral Roberts really was the better team throughout. Max Abmas (29 pts) was a fuckin' badass (like a little Lou Williams out there) and Obanor filled it up and hit big shots, while the rest of the crew made plays (would've been a blowout if they'd made more jumpers). For the Buckeyes, I was impressed with Liddle and Walker, but for some reason all the offense ran through Washington, who was not getting buckets down the stretch (7-21 FGs in 43 mins). If Oral Roberts has anything left in the tank then Florida is in trouble because these guys can score and control the game. (Yeah, I had the Buckeyes in my Final Four, so....yeah...bracket is shot)

(9) Wisconsin 85-62 (8) North Carolina

The Tarheels just had no offense at all, while the Badgers were their usual selves: a solid D and an offense that makes no mistakes. Wisconsin probably shot a little better than usual, not sure they were actually this much better than UNC.

(10) Va Tech 70-75 (OT) (7) Florida

I generally thought Va Tech was the better team.  About 10 mins left, Fla finally got Castelton going down low and Tech didn't have an answer for him. That turned the momentum and Florida should've won in regulation, but Tech did well to get the game to OT. But in OT, Tech just ran out of gas. Florida is fine, but nothing superior--Oral Roberts is gonna give them a match.

(13) North Texas 78-69 (OT) (4) Purdue

I only caught the last few minutes of regulation and all of the OT. Purdue, as happens to the 'big boys' in this tourney, just thought they could coast on how they've played all year long, instead of adapting to a new challenge. North Texas plodded along down low and controlled the tempo late to hold off the Boilermakers (who were basically playing a home game). 

(13) Liberty 60-69 (4) Oklahoma St

I kept waiting for OSU to take off but they never really did. Liberty hung around and kept the Cowboys nervous throughout. Concensus #1 pick Cade Cunningham did virtually nothing until the last 10 mins, then he finally appeared, but even then Liberty did not go quietly. Not sure what to make of their next match with Oregon St (can they blitz Ok St the way the blitzed Tennessee?).

Games I saw (pretty much) none of:

(16) Drexel 49-78 (1) Illinois

(16) Hartford 55-79 (1) Baylor

(15) Cleveland St 56-87 (2) Houston

(14) Colgate 68-85 (3) Arkansas

Score was much closer throughout the game, Arkansas must've run away with it late. 

(14) Morehead St 67-84 (3) West Virginia

(11) Syracuse 78-62 (6) San Diego St

Never close. Syracuse piled on points all the way through.

(9) Georgia Tech 60-71 (8) Loyola-Chicago

(12) Winthrop 63-73 (5) Villanova

(11) Utah St 53-65 (6) Texas Tech

(12) Oregon St 70-56 (5) Tennessee

Oregon State got out to a big lead and held it throughout/ 

(10) Rutgers 60-56 (7) Clemson

Day #1: Big-12 (4-0) looking like the dominant conference, while the strongest regular season conference, the Big-10 (3-2) was only so-so impressive. ACC (0-4) got smoked, SEC (2-1) plodded along and the Pac-12 (1-0) hasn't gotten started yet.  

Day #1 MVP: Max Abmas (Oral Roberts)

2019-20 NCAA Bowl Results

(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
Yeah, that's about right. The game started a little slow as each team calibrated their offenses against new defensive looks, but you just knew this game was not gonna be a defensive slugfest and once they got going, both teams moved the ball pretty well. I thought the refs kinda sucked: in those first few drives they really let the teams batter each other when it seemed like both sides were looking to the refs to establish the parameters of the game. The refs failed to do that and then randomly called pass interference through the game. I thought the refs were fairly even, but Clemson had a TD called back in the 3rd quarter for what I thought was a bogus pass interference that might have sparked something. That said, this game turned out about right, the score was a little lower than I thought it would be, largely because the offenses started slow and then Clemson got frustrated by the 4th quarter and mostly just spun their wheels. LSU was really good, man, Joe Burrow was a mathematician out there all season long and he was again in the Final. (I guess I expect Clemson to start #1 next season with Alabama and Ohio State right behind them; wouldn't be surprised if that's your Final Four, along with Oklahoma, next year)


Right (24)
(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
(4) Oklahoma 28-63 (1) LSU
(3) Clemson 29-23 (2) Ohio State
(5) Georgia 26-14 (7) Baylor
(6) Oregon 28-27 (8) Wisconsin
(9) Florida 36-28 (24) Virginia
(17) Memphis 39-53 (10) Penn State
(14) Michigan 16-35 (13) Alabama

(15) Notre Dame 33-9 Iowa State
Boston College 6-20 (21) Cincinnati
(22) Southern Cal 24-49 (16) Iowa
(20) Appalachian State 31-17 UAB
(23) Navy 20-17 Kansas State
(25) Oklahoma State 21-24 Texas A&M

Buffalo 31-9 Charlotte

BYU 34-38 Hawaii

Louisiana Tech 14-0 Miami
Pittsburgh 34-30 Eastern Michigan

North Carolina 55-13 Temple

Western Kentucky 23-20 Western Michigan

Virginia Tech 30-37 Kentucky
Florida State 14-20 Arizona State

Louisiana 27-17 Miami (OH)

California 35-20 Illinois

Wrong (17)
(11) Utah 10-38 Texas
(18) Minnesota 31-24 (12) Auburn

Utah State 41-51 Kent State
Central Michigan 11-48 San Diego State
Liberty 23-16 Georgia Southern
SMU 28-52 Florida Atlantic
California 35-20 Illinois

Florida Int'l 26-34 Arkansas State

Michigan State 27-21 Wake Forest
Air Force 31-21 Washington State
Mississippi State 28-38 Louisville
Wyoming 38-17 Georgia State
Indiana 22-23 Tennessee
Ohio 30-21 Nevada
Southern Mississippi 13-30 Tulane
Alcorn State 44-64 North Carolina A&T
Central Florida 48-25 Marshall

No spreads, just winners. I did pretty good picking the ranked teams--the only two I missed were another shocking upset by Texas and Minnesota sticking it to Auburn (which I would have loved to have picked!). Of the unranked teams...I dunno...total crapshoot and I didn't fare all that well. Oh well, already looking forward to next year. 

2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I saw some of:

Florida 29-21 Kentucky
*sigh* classic Kentucky football....Held the lead most of the game, had the chance to re-take the lead in the last minute, missed the FG, give up an extra TD while Florida was running out the clock, didn't even cover the spread. Oh well, UK did look better than Florida for most of this game and that's not insignificant; the flipside to that: I got a feeling Florida will be better with their 2nd string QB than they would've been with the starter. We'll see. Florida is fine but doesn't strike me as top ten quality; Kentucky is okay, should probably win more than they lose this year, which is nice. 


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) LSU, (5) Oklahoma, (6) Ohio State, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Auburn, (11) Utah, (12) Texas, (13) Penn State, (15) Oregon, (16) Texas A&M, (17) Central Florida, (20) Washington State, (22) Boise State, (23) Washington, (25) Virginia


Won but did not impress
(9) Florida. Scrambling late to beat Kentucky who was handing them the game does not inspire confidence. Losing their starting QB could turn out to be a blessing in disguise...or it could be the death knell of their season (Kentucky ain't on the schedule no more!).
(19) Iowa. Pulling out a grudge match on the road is probably more impressive than I'm giving it credit for (I looked the other way for Penn State, for example).


Did not get it done
(18) Michigan State. Felt like they were gonna pull out the slugfest with Arizona State but they did not. Sparty has a good D but no offense to speak of.
(21) Maryland. They ran up the score well in their first coupla games but couldn't get it going against that Temple juggernaut.
(24) Southern Cal. Just reminds us that in this top 25 world, there are really only 15-20 teams worth keeping up with.


Notable games next week
(7) Notre Dame @ (3) Georgia (should be fun)
(11) Michigan @ (13) Wisconsin (can the Wolverine D stand up to the Badger running attack?)
(8) Auburn @ (17) Texas A&M (A&M strikes me as better than usual this year, that enough to give them a convincing W over an SEC West foe?)
(22)Washington @ BYU (this match could have a big impact on the PAC-12 this season)

2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 1+)

Ahhhhhhh.....football.

Games I saw some of
(11) Oregon 21-27 (16) Auburn
I was impressed by Oregon's QB and Auburn's true-freshman QB, too. Oregon was rolling pretty well at first, then turned timid late and stop making plays; Auburn laid low til halftime, then pulled it out in the 2nd half. I was more impressed with both teams than I thought I would be. Comparing this to last year's Auburn-Washington match-up (when both squads were ranked in the top ten), I suspect Auburn and Oregon are both better this season than that game showed off. I've love to see Auburn give Bama a game (I guess it's possible) and I can see Oregon winning the Pac-12.

Northwestern 7-17 (25) Stanford
Kept expecting more out of Northwestern's QB, he had moments but didn't get it done down the stretch. As for Stanford, they look like a 'nice' team, no major mistakes but no overachieving either, I can see them being in the #20-#30 range pretty much all season.

Houston 31- 49 (4) Oklahoma
Wow, OU's offense is gonna be top notch this year, but...hmmmm...that defense kinda gave up some points to a nothing-special looking Houston squad. Its easy to see the Heisman Hurts talk is ready to take off but I'm not sure that D is gonna get them to the playoff--and come on, man, Oklahoma-Alabama is a game we've got to see!


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Ohio State, (6) Louisiana State, (7) Michigan, (9) Notre Dame, (10) Texas, (12) Texas A&M, (13) Washington, (14) Utah, (15) Penn State, (16) Auburn, (17) Central Florida, (18) Michigan State, (19) Wisconsin, (20) Iowa, (22) Syracuse, (23) Washington State, (24) Nebraska, (25) Stanford


Won but did not impress
(8) Florida. Miami didn't look all that good and probably should've beaten Florida. Coming in I thought Florida would be in good position to beat Georgia this year, but after this game I no longer see that as a possibility. We'll see, perhaps we'll look back on this as a great save rather than a near giveaway.

(21) Iowa State. Northern Iowa is a pretty good squad and the Cyclones did pull their shit together and avoid disaster, but you'd like to see a little more assured confidence in a home opener. Iowa State has a knack for giving really good teams a scare and I guess they're the kinda squad that gives up scares to lesser teams, too.


Bad beat
(11) Oregon. I suspect they're good, man, decent chance we look back on this L to Auburn as an impressive accomplishment.


Next week's interesting matches:
Army @ (7) Michigan (Army was legit good last year, don't expect them to be a walkover in Ann Arbor)
(12) Texas A&M @ (1) Clemson (definitely tougher than Clemson is used to playing at this time in the season, should be some fun)
(6) LSU @ (9) Texas (okay...let's see it)

2018-19 NCAA Final

Auburn 62-63 Virginia
Wow, what a game! For the record: I saw the double dribble live! I was yelling at the TV and kinda surprised the announcers didn't say anything (thought it felt like Grant Hill went notably silent there). And: yes, that was a foul of the 3-pointer at the end. But those are just details on a pretty crazy final 5 minutes of action. UVA built up a 10 point lead at the final TV timeout, felt like they were gonna finish it off. Suddenly Auburn starts hitting 3's and then both teams are wildly fouling each other late to stop the clock--but there were so few fouls committed that that strategy seemed to take forever! Amazing roller coaster of a game, Auburn played their guts out and it's a damn shame they didn't get a better result but UVA did the little things down the stretch to take it.

Texas Tech 61-51 Michigan State
Okay, I'm in on Tech, they are for real. I knew they were good but the way they were winning in this tourney was clouding my judgement. But they thoroughly controlled the 2nd half of this game, shot well enough to spook the Spartans and kept Cassius Winston off balance throughout. State had their chances but they just never got hot enough from outside to get back in it. Great W for Tech, they are worthy of the title.


Final:
Texas Tech - Virginia (-1) (o/u 118)
Real b-ball fans will be enthused by this matchup--two virtually identical squads bashing into each other--but the casual fan will probably be pretty bummed by this contest. These two are such great defensive squads that both will control the lane on defense, run down the shot clock and commit no fouls.  So the 1st half will fly by (something like 22-20 at the half), then most of the 2nd half will also fly by...until the last five minutes when it becomes a foul contest (like UVA-Auburn), which will drag out the ending forever. If both teams knock down free throws, the score might balloon late, but likely neither of these teams will get past 60 points (I'd take the under and hope both squads turn cold at the line).  I'll take UVA to finish it off, solely because going from losing to a #16 seed and then winning the championship is as great a redemption story as sports could possibly produce; but Tech is playing as good as UVA right now, so this could go either way. This is as closely matched a combination of teams in a final as I can think of in recent memory. I expect this to be close throughout and be a nail biter right down to the wire and I don't see much scoring happening. I'll take UVA and the under.

2018-19 NCAA Bowl Results

(I forgot to do this in a timely fashion so I didn't pick spreads this year, just the winners)

Right (24)
(4) Oklahoma 34-45 (1) Alabama
(3) Notre Dame 3-30 (2) Clemson
(9) Washington 23-28 (6) Ohio St
(14) Kentucky 27-24 (12) Penn State
NC State 13-53 (19) Texas A&M
(23) Missouri 33-38 Oklahoma St
Arizona St 20-31 (21) Fresno St

Marshall 38-30 South Florida

Florida Int'l 35-32 Toledo
Temple 27-56 Duke
Baylor 45-38 Vanderbilt
Arkansas St 13-16 (OT) Nevada
Cincinnati 35-31 Virginia Tech
Stanford 14-13 Pittsburgh
Michigan St 6-7 Oregon
Buffalo 32-42 Troy

Utah State 52-13 North Texas
Georgia Southern 23-21 Eastern Michigan
UAB 37-13 Northern Illinois
Western Michigan 18-49 BYU
Houston 14-70 Army
Miami 3-35 Wisconsin
Purdue 14-63 Auburn

South Carolina 0-28 Virginia


Cancelled
Boston College - (25) Boise State

Wrong (14)
(15) Texas 28-21 (5) Georgia

(10) Florida 41-15 (7) Michigan
(11) LSU 40-32 (8) Central Florida
(24) Iowa St 26-28 (13) Washington St
(16) West Virginia 18-34 (20) Syracuse
(22) Northwestern 31-20 (17) Utah

(18) Mississippi St 22-27 Iowa 

Tulane 41-24 Louisiana
Middle Tennessee 13-45 Appalachian State
San Diego St 0-27 Ohio
Minnesota 34-10 Georgia Tech
Cal 7-10 TCU
Hawaii 14-31 Louisiana
Memphis 34-37 Wake Forest

Really surprised Georgia fell to Texas. And, sorry Texas, I'm putting it squarely on UGA not bothering to show up for the game. They got it up for Alabama, that was their real shot at glory, and then figured the season was done when the SEC title game didn't go their way. Texas had a nice season, they're moving in the right direction (finally!), but they weren't better than Georgia this year and this result really kinda shocked me.
Good W's for Florida and LSU, in a proper pool I think I would've won with Iowa State covering the spread, WVU really bottomed out after starting strong, not sure why I picked Utah, surprised that Mississippi State fell to a mid-tier Big 10 squad. (And I should've had Ohio and TCU, not sure how I missed those)


My Final Ranking
1a) Alabama
1b) Clemson
3) Oklahoma
4) Notre Dame
5) Ohio State
6) Georgia
7) Florida
8) LSU
9) Central Florida
10) Texas
11) Washington State
12) Michigan
13) Kentucky
14) Washington
15) Fresno State

Alabama (-7) - Clemson (o/u 60)
Look, Alabama was better than everybody this year by a long shot; Clemson is still better than everyone else but I'd be pretty shocked if they beat Alabama. Alabama has now beaten Georgia and Oklahoma and is ramping up their play as they go; Clemson's first real game all year long was their drubbing of Notre Dame--and they looked good--but Alabama is starting to get some actual game day warm up just in time for their toughest foe of the season while Clemson looks like they haven't even started yet.  I like Alabama to win 34-20 (Alabama and the under).

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 14)

Games I watched (some of):

(10) Washington 10-3 (17) Utah
Yeah, that game was as boring as the score would indicate. The winning TD was a flukey pick-6, otherwise there was no offense--NO OFFENSE--in this game at all.  This was two mediocre offenses against two okay defenses. Washington gets a Rose Bowl birth, where I reckon they'll get spanked by a so-so Ohio State squad. Pac-12 was really nothing special this year and this championship was pretty much the perfect capper of the season for the conference.

(5) Oklahoma 39-27 (9) Texas
Probably Oklahoma's crappiest game of the year--they played better in their L to Texas earlier in the year. The Sooners started the game by trying to go low-key, which was exactly what Texas was planning on--really? How is it that Texas was perfectly situated for that? Oklahoma really never did get their offense going but still managed to grind up the Horns. Texas is a nice team, moving in the right direction but they weren't as good as Oklahoma at any point this season (well, except for that week they beat them, I guess....).

(7) Central Florida 56-41 Memphis
Man, UCF really dug themselves a hole but it is a tribute to that overwhelming offense that they spotted a tenacious Memphis squad two quick TD's, sputtered through the first half and still easily covered the spread. Kinda impressed with Memphis that they put up that kind of fight, but once UCF got their feet under them, this game was over. I'm impressed, I'm ready to see Central Florida against a for-real opponent--especially in a year when everyone is playing for 2nd place anyway.

(1) Alabama 35-28 (4) Georgia
I was impressed with Georgia for the first three quarters, but honestly I thought Bama's WR's dropped a lot of balls in the 1st half, missed a lot of plays they would normally make and that's basically what kept UGA in the game. Bama going to their 2nd string QB (who would be an all-American at any other school) for the comeback just shows how much better they are than everyone else this season. UGA did their best, kept the game spicy but they're just not as good as Bama (and if Bama played better this wouldn't have been that close).

(6) Ohio State 45-24 (21) Northwestern
Buckeyes did enough to hold the lead, Northwestern looked like they were going to make a game of it early in the 2nd half but Ohio State still has enough big play ability to easily sock the game away. Northwestern played hard, I liked their moxy, but even as mediocre as Ohio State has been this season, they still have more than enough talent to easily take this game.


Didn't see
(2) Clemson 42-10 Pittsburgh
Yeah, this was predictable, Pitt was up and down all year long while Clemson plowed their way through an undefeated season without even trying hard.

(19) Boise State 16-19 (23) Fresno State
Two tough squads, ones to keep an eye on during the bowl season.

(24) Iowa State 27-24 Drake
Not a strong finish for Iowa State. Guess they only get it up for the tough games.


My final rankings
(1) Alabama (duh)
(2) Clemson (can they beat Bama? I dunno, maybe)
(3) Oklahoma (that offense is really good, they can give Bama or Clemson a game at least, though I don't see them beating either)
(4) Georgia (hung tough with Alabama for 3/4 of a game, more impressive than most everyone else this weekend)
(5) Notre Dame (solid, workmanlike Irish squad, they'll be Clemson's toughest opponent all year, they might could knock them off, we'll see)
(6) Central Florida (I'd rather see them than anyone else in a big game)
(7) Ohio State (after they throttle Washington they'll be the most uninspiring, unimpressive, luckiest 13-1 Rose Bowl-winning Big 10 champion I ever saw)

(8) nobody (LSU has 3 L's, Washington has no offense, Michigan blew their chances, Penn State and Florida weren't all that great this year, if Kentucky wins at Tennessee this would be their spot but they didn't get it done, either--we don't need an 8 team playoff, people!  We don't need it!)

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 8)

Games I watched (some of):
I watched more baseball than football this Saturday.  But I caught a little of Michigan over Michigan State (Sparty's D was okay but they got no offense going in this game) and Oklahoma over TCU (felt like OU was gonna score every time the ball was snapped). 


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Clemson, (5) LSU, (6) Michigan, (9) Oklahoma, (10) Central Florida, (14) Kentucky, (15) Washington, (18) Penn State, (19) Iowa, (23) Wisconsin

Did not impress
(21) South Florida (I don't know, man, feels like they could've had a more decisive victory hosting UConn; they got the W, but failing to cover against a lightweight conference opponent at home is kinda soft)

Bad beat
(16) North Carolina State (I thought they had a decent shot to make some noise, but Clemson finally busted out their most impressive game of the season, so...uh...not happening for the Wolfpack)
(19) Mississippi State (they weren't gonna win at LSU, you know it, I know it, the American people know it)
(24) Michigan State (frankly, Sparty is overrated at #24 and Michigan has quietly put together a pretty good season so far, this game was about right)

Not so good
(2) Ohio State (yipes! I thought they kinda lucked out against TCU and Penn State, but they got the W's, so you can't front; but, man, getting thumped by Purdue is not good, they can still play spoiler but it's hard to imagine the Buckeyes getting into the playoff with this kind of L on their resume)
(12) Oregon (haven't been impressed with Oregon so far this season, not sure how they got up to #12, but they got pretty well throttled in Pullman; Pac-12, man, it's a blender every year)
(20) Cincinnati (I really thought they'd easily handle Temple, but not so much)


Next week's key matches:
(9) Florida @ (7) Georgia
(18) Iowa @ (17) Penn State
(12) Kentucky @ Missouri
(14) Washington State @ (24) Stanford

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):
(3) Georgia 41-17 (24) South Carolina
I thought South Carolina would give the Bulldogs a game--and even rationalized the pick-6 Carolina spotted UGA early on. Hey, at halftime it still seemed like an even game. But the 2nd half was all Georgia. Felt like they were gonna score every time they touched the ball and that South Carolina had no chance. Good win for Georgia, tough loss for South Carolina.

UCLA 21-49 (6) Oklahoma
Right off the bat OU got jobbed: went for a big pass over the middle on the first play, I thought it was defensive interference, the refs did not. Then I don't recall the specific play, but UCLA got away with a non-call on their next possession, which ended in a TD. Seems like an early 14-point swing would make a difference but, nah, OU settled in and steadily pummeled the Bruins, who had no offensive attack to speak of. Pointless TD at the end covered the 30 point spread, so...you know...not a total loss for Bruin fans.

(13) Penn State 51-6 Pitt
Didn't see much of this but what I did see was the Nittany Lions thrashing the Panthers mercilessly. Kinda thought Penn State might come in hungover from last year's nail biter against App State, but, no, they came in ready to play.

Samford 26-36 Florida State
Hey, man, until Samford's best defender (Ahmad Gooden--remember that name because that guy'll be playing on Sundays!) went out on a targeting penalty (yeah, it was good call) late in the 3rd quarter, the Seminoles were getting outplayed in every way. The Samford QB was moving the ball, their WR's were making plays, the Samford special teams was better and that kid Gooden lived in FSU's backfield. It wasn't a fluke. But Gooden went out, then QB Francois was able to settle down some, they finally had a good drive in the 4th quarter, then a late pick-6 sealed it. But anyone who watched that game will not be putting money on Florida State this season.



Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Ohio State, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Auburn, (9) Washington, (10) Stanford, (11) LSU, (12) Virginia Tech, (13) Penn State, (14) West Virginia, (16) TCU, (18) Mississippi State. (19) Central Florida, (20) Boise State, (21) Michigan, (22) Miami, (23) Oregon

Didn't impress but did what they needed to do
(2) Clemson. I thought I was crazy for thinking Furman actually looked kinda good against Clemson last week, but after they barely squeaked by A&M, Clemson is not exactly blowing me away like they did last season. I dunno, A&M is sometimes sneaky good (and sometimes sneaky bad), it's too early to think Clemson's season is over (but when it all goes wrong, it's not like the signs weren't there).
(8) Notre Dame. Ooooh, they did not look good against Ball State. Not good, man.

Bad beat
(17) USC. Meh, they didn't get blown out by Stanford but they never had much shot at a W.
(24) South Carolina. The game felt close at halftime, but not much longer after that.

Not good
(15) Michigan State. Sparty's always hard to figure but this does not look like a vintage side
(25) Florida. Ha! I can now no longer say I was at the game the last time Kentucky beat Florida (but I can still say was at the game the next-to-last time Kentucky beat Florida and that might last me for a while).

2018 NCAA Final Four

Loyola-Chicago - Michigan (-5)
Loyola is a surprise but they shouldn't be, they've been damn good all year long and in this tourney they've picked up quality W's over Miami, Tennessee and Nevada. Can they beat Michigan? Yeah, why not? Michigan has been solid all year and ramped up their play to take the Big 10 tourney, with impressive W's over Texas A&M and Gonzaga last week. I like Loyola to keep it going, I think they're a complete team on a mission, they're the fan favorite and you gotta love 'em as an underdog. I'll take Loyola-Chicago to win.

Kansas - Villanova (-5)
Blueblood squads but neither of them are really are bringing their best. Kansas feels like the overachiever here, they're good when they pull it together but they haven't done that all that much this year. Villanova feels like they've steadily (though only marginally) declined since winning the titles 2 years ago, but they've still got the great coach and supporting cast. I feel like Villanova wins the game whether it's close or not. So the question is will Kansas cover the spread? I'll take Nova to win but the Jayhawks to cover.