2017-18 NBA Finals

Both conferences went to Game Seven this year (for the first time since 1979) and both were decided by....crappy shooting. The Celtics just never got hot enough to hang with Lebron and the Rockets went ice cold in the second half, after over-performing in the first half. And so Cavs-Warriors IV begins tonight. This was my pre-season prediction and my prediction at the end of the regular season, so not a shocker, though the Cavs and Warriors struggled more this season than previous years.

We know what the Cavs are: Lebron and a bunch of other guys (which may or may not included Kevin Love). The Warriors at the top are the same as ever but the back end is not as good as years passed. But the story is still the same: if the Warriors shoot well, they'll probably win; if not, then the Cavs can hang around and have a chance.

The Warriors aren't as deep as previous models, they are dangerously susceptible to injury to one of their main guys (as losing Iguodala against the Rockets showed) but barring that should have enough offense to beat anyone. The Cavs are still figuring it out together (I can see this exact same squad being much better next year, oddly enough) and go as far as Lebron can carry them. He's carried them this far but Smith, Hill, Clarkson, or Thompson will need to score in addition to Love and Korver. I think Love and Thompson are the Cavs' best chance to create mismatches (though not necessarily points). I think the Warriors can more or less shut down Korver and Smith and they can outrun any addition brought by Hill or Clarkson. Draymond isn't as good as past years but Durant and Klay should be enough to outlast the Cavs.

I'll take Warriors in 5.  I like the home team to win each of the first three games, then Golden State to steal Game Four in Cleveland and wrap it up in 5. I'll take Curry as the MVP, with this rationale: in their previous championships it was the third option guy (Iguodala, Durant) that won the MVP's but this is now Durant's team with Klay as the second banana and Curry as the bonus. Curry hasn't shot all that well yet, I think he blows up in this series and reminds everyone he's the king.

2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Post-season)

The extended (player option)
Wesley Matthews (Mavs)
I believe this upcoming season will be for $18.6m and, uh, yeah, he's not getting that from any other team in the league, so no-brainer that he stays in Dallas. Helluva player....when he's healthy. Perhaps the Mavs get Doncic at #5, swing a move for Deandre Jordan, Dennis Smith takes off, Coach Carlyle is revitalized and Matthews has a great veteran season for Dirk's finale. Not impossible, the Mavs are a team that prefer winning to losing and this 'rebuilding' thing is not something they want to get used to, so if Matthews can stay healthy, never know, the Mavs might be a pleasant surprise next season.

Wesley Johnson (Clippers)
I believe he's coming back for $6.4m, which is probably a number he could outdo in most off-seasons. But this summer is gonna be tight, I think there will be more trades than splashy free agent moves, so Johnson is probably better off grabbing the money to stay in LA (which also positions him better to get traded). The Clippers were interesting this year, I think they'll make moves this summer, 50/50 whether Johnson actually plays with the Clippers next season.

Kosta Koufos (Kings)
I believe he'll be coming back for $8.7m, which is probably about right for Koufos. I watched the Kings a lot this year and I like Koufos, he fits the mix of vets/youth that they got going there (I thought Vince Carter was unnecessary and getting rid of George Hill was the #1 priority the minute they signed Hill last summer, but neither will be back, which is good). Koufos is a limited 4 (maybe 5 in a small lineup) but has pretty good hands, pretty good feet, knows where he's supposed to be, decent defender, decent rebounder and he's there night after night. He's a good professional player and I think the Kings are smart to keep him at a very reasonable number. I don't expect the Kings to be all that busy this summer, they've got a #2 pick to throw into the youth movement, maybe a random vet to replace Vince and Hill, but I don't expect major trades or moves from Sactown.


The extended (team option)
TJ McConnell (Sixers)
Great move! I watched the Sixers a lot this year and McConnell off the bench was one of my favorite things to watch all season--not just the playoffs. Look, teams need a 2nd string PG, he's not the guy that's gonna win you the championship or sell t-shirts, but he's a necessary part of a team's regular season rotation and having a really good backup PG is what the really good teams have (Shaun Livingston with Warriors, for example) and I think McConnell is one of the best backup PG's in the league. Indeed, I would've signed him longer. Rather picking up this option, I believe the Sixers could have extended him further: they could throw a 5yr/$24m deal at him (say $5m, $5m, $6m, $6m, $2m/player option in the 5th year), see if he says no. I love this guy, the fans love this guy, he's been through the process and he's gonna be a contributor for years to come, he gets the team and all the players and how they work and since I think his recognition with the fans is going to be a skewing factor in his value to the team, if I was the Sixers, I'd go ahead and groom him as an asst coach or front office guy. Great move by the Sixers.


The released
Jamal Crawford (Wolves)
I think he turned down his player option to return to the Wolves. A good divorce, I think. Signing him last summer was not a good move, playing him as much as they did was not a good move, bringing him back for another year would not have been a good move. Crawford maybe thinks he can still get paid to play basketball. He's one of those guys that to the average fan looks like an athlete, looks like a ball player, but real basketball nerds know this guy is just wasting shots out there. He's not a terrible player but Coach Thibs empowered him to do too much and the next team he goes to (he always seemed like a Memphis Grizzlie kinda player to me) would do well to rein him in.

Jordan Mickey (Heat), Tyler Cavanagh (Heat)
I remember Mickey at LSU, helluva rebounder. He's bounced around a bit in the NBA for the last coupla years but I don't recall ever seeing him play as a pro. And I don't know who Cavanagh is. I reckon they'll be both at Summer League.


The retired
Andrew Bogut (Lakers), Nick Collison (Thunder)
Yeah, Bogut reached his last bit of use a coupla years back for the Warriors. It's still kinda weird to see the Warriors without him in there, he was the initial building block of that squad. He was a smart player, a good player and he had a good career. Collison was a Sonic for life, that won't be forgotten. I suspect Collison will be a Thunder front office guy soon enough. Though I've long disparaged Udonis Haslem's presence in Miami, I've become a fan of the lingering veteran in recent years: I loved the way KG was used in Minnesota (til Thibs came along), I've been digging Dirk in Dallas and I guess San Antonio will squeeze a few more years out of Ginobli. Sometimes those guys need to be in uniform to have their influence, some guys don't translate into coaches or scouts or GM's. But some will move up the ladder just fine and I can see Collison being one of those guys, wouldn't be surprised if he's a coach or GM in the next few years.


The fired
Jeff Hornacek (Knicks)(4.12.18)
It wasn't that long ago that Hornacek was the talk for Coach of the Year in Phoenix. Then that front office blew up and left him holding the bag. Which replayed itself in New York. So is Hornacek a good coach sabotaged by crazy front offices or is he culpable in his firings? Who knows? At the moment Detroit and Toronto are the only openings; in the former Hornacek would be set up as another patsy, in the latter he becomes the next guy that wins in the regular season and gets destroyed by Lebron in the playoffs (....could work).

Frank Vogel (Magic) (4.12.18)
Vogel built a reputation as a defensive guru with the Pacers but when it came time to pay him like a guru, GM Larry Bird demurred, electing to let him ply his trade elsewhere. Orlando was not the ideal landing spot for Vogel because their roster management has been pretty awful the last few years. So now he's looking for a job. Oh well.

Steve Clifford (Hornets) (4.13.18)
Coach Cliff had some nice moments in Charlotte and some dud moments, hard to tell what kind of a coach he is or what kind of coach the Hornets need. Either way it's time for both coach and team to find out what they can do in some other context.

Mike Budenholzer (Hawks) (4.25.18)
Coach Bud was greatly admired for a while but the last coupla years were spent trying to restructure the Hawks roster with an eye to the future (....namely a future somewhere other than Atlanta for Bud). The Hawks have a coupla nice young players but they'll be in the bottom of the East for the foreseeable future. Probably best for coach and team to part ways.

Stan Van Gundy (Pistons) (5.7.18)
I wasn't sure whether the Pistons would fire Stan Van or not. The team itself is basically hamstrung by contracts for the next year, so they can either get a new coach for their new look now or let Stan Van play out the last year on his deal and part ways then. I dunno, it kinda doesn't feel like it matters either way. The Pistons as constituted are in play for the last few playoff spots in the East, the roster is solid if not spectacular, with good health and a consistent game plan, they should probably be a playoff team in the East and should certainly be above the bottom of the barrel. A new coach gives a new direction, a new form for the current players but the old coach is less expensive and takes most of the blame of the so-so team on the court. It was a tough call but the Pistons decided to move on and are now looking for a coach. As for Stan Van, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on ESPN next year.

Dwane Casey (Raptors) (5.11.18)
Coach Casey has been much embattled over the last few years in Toronto. I tend to think he's the best part of the Raptors and the worst part, too. He got them to a #1 seed this year by expertly handling his bench; but he got them spanked in the playoffs (again!) because he couldn't make adjustments or make use of that vaunted depth.  Oh well. I'm sure Casey will get another shot and there's a 50/50 chance he'll be good at it (Pistons could use a guy like Dwane).


The hired
JB Bickerstaff (Grizzlies) (4.27.18)
I watched the Grizzlies for zero minutes this past season. The Grizzlies are in a place where they're paying Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons an ungodly amount of money and have no bench whatsoever. They have the #4 pick in the coming draft, which should land them a somebody (if Michael Porter is still there at #4, Grizz should be all over him). I'd say Bickerstaff's job is to develop #4, figure out how to get anything out of Parsons and ease the Grizz faithful for the coming years of no more Conley or Gasol (still one of the tradebait-i-est players in the league). Bickerstaff was the interim last year, I guess he knows what he's in for, and considering that their 2019 1st round pick is top 8 protected, there's no pressing need to actually be any good next year.

Igor Kokoskov (Suns) (5.2.18)
The only detail from his resume that grabbed me: used to coach Luca Doncic in Europe. Personally I'm all in on Doncic, of everyone in this draft he is clearly the most likely to produce in the NBA, as close to a guarantee as you're gonna find. The Suns may well pass on him at #1 but I don't think they should and bringing Kokoskov indicates they won't. (And does this indicate an interest in French PG Elie Okobo at the #31?) I don't know Kokoskov but if he knows Doncic I've got to assume that's his selling point.

David Fizdale (Knicks) (5.3.18)
Fizdale was brought into Memphis a coupla years ago to pump some new blood into the old legs. But he clashed with the vets (Marc Gasol reportedly) and got forced out. Might not have been the worst move for his career. Now Fizdale is the new man-with-a-plan for Madison Square. He's got Porzingis, Nkilitina and the #9 pick to work with. Ehh, I think it'll be another rough year for the Knicks but if Fizdale can put his stamp on the team that would be impressive.

Hornets (James Borrego) (5.10.18)
Borrego has been as asst in San Antonio for the last three years but had a period of interim coaching duty with the Magic before that. I have no idea if he's the right guy for the Hornets. Seeing that Clifford had the same record the last two years in Charlotte kinda suggests that the Hornets are about a 36-win, don't ya think? If Borrego can get them to 45, he'd be a hero, but getting them to 40 might be enough for a playoff spot. The Hornets have moves to make this summer and up through next summer, this team could look totally different soon.

Lloyd Pierce (Hawks) (5.11.18)
I have no idea who Pierce is, I assume he specializes in developing the youth because that's what his job is gonna be for a while. The Hawks owe the Cavs a 1st roud pick but they're top-10 protected for the next two years; Atlanta should easily be in the bottom 10 next year, but the year after that is where they might have to put forth a little tanking effort to add another top ten pick to this roster. For this draft they have #3, #19, #30, #34, so they should be bringing in some interesting youth. If they were to Philly-like shut down that #3 pick for a year, they would pretty much guarantee a top ten pick next year and really give the youth movement a kick in 2019-20. I'm just sayin': I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks really pulled out the stops to suck this year, like trading away Shroeder and Bazemore and shutting down Taurean Prince. We'll see, but I think it's gonna be another long year in Atlanta.

Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) (5.16.18)
Coach Bud has long been one of the darlings of the NBA nerd crowd and I never quite understod why. He led a coupla magical years (Teague, Korver, Caroll, Horford, Millsap really tore it up for a while) but one could argue he just got lucky and didn't navigate the aftermath all that well or you could say he was the architect who even perfectly constructed his own exit. Either way, he got the plum gig this year: coaching Giannis Antetokounpo. Nice! My gut is Coach Bud can go a long way to clear up inefficiencies on the offensive end and make Giannis the badass MVP he is clearly meant to be; and though I'm sanguine about the defensive end, if the Bucks score better then they'll be better and become a worthy foe for the Sixers, Celtics and Lebron. Though Bud's charms have been largely lost on me, I still think this is a good move, he's the right coach for this job.

Steve Clifford (Magic) (5.30.18)
Ehhhhhhh.....if I was a Magic fan, I don't think I'd be too excited about this. Coach Cliff was an asst there for many years, perhaps he's plugged in a way that I can't see, perhaps he is the guy to lead them and build a culture there for years to come. But....ehhhhh.....I dunno, man. This does not seem like the guy for this job. The Magic need a coach for the long haul, they need a coach that they get behind and stay behind. If Cliff is that guy, well...okay. But, if not, then he's just filling time until they find that guy.


The re-hired
Alvin Gentry (Pelicans) (4.23.18)
Blasting through the Blazers in the 1st round pretty well made this happen, I reckon. By all accounts, Gentry is an extremely affable guy in person and has done good things in the NBA over the years. The Pelicans live and die on their supporting cast and Gentry seems to do pretty well with them.

Brett Brown (Sixers) (5.29.18) (extended through 2021-22)
They brought in Brown as the tank commander in the early years of the Process and, personally, I'm glad they've committed to keeping him around during the next phase. I thought the Sixers got demonstrably better throughout the season, they built well on lessons learned and I think getting knocked around by the Celtics at the end was quite a lesson for them. We'll see how they grow going forward but I like Brown and I think it's good he's gonna get a chance to be there for it.

Pistons, Raptors still without a coach (though rumors are Dwane Casey could be the guy in Detroit).


Upstairs
Mikhail Prokhorov transferred 49% of Nets ownership to Joe Tsai; hired Pablo Prigioni, Tiago Splitter as assistants
Russian oligrachs always need money and I suspect Prokhorov just wasn't as into basketball as he thought he might be. He gambled big on KG and Pierce and lost, which sent the team into a tailspin for at least a few more years. He probably imagined owning an NBA team to be every bit as sexy fun as owning a Premiership squad or an NFL team but in the NBA when you fuck up the roster, it stays fucked up for a while. And it gets expensive. The Nets are just a tangible asset now rather than the toy chest he thought he was getting. Oh well, time for new blood.

2017-18 NBA Pointless Trade Idea

Wolves get 2019 #6 pick, Magic 2020 1st round pick, Aaron Gordon (sign and trade); Magic get SF Jimmy Butler, Coach Tom Thibodeau

The Wolves get three new talents to throw in the youth mix and a chance to get out from under what a disaster Thibs has been for their culture. For Minnesota this is about un-doing what Thibs built and trying to get back to what Flip left behind.

I've long thought that since the Magic have never been a destination for free agents they may as well invest long term in a coach to build a culture, so that every draft and every summer you know you're looking for a certain type of player. Personally I don't think Thibs is that coach, but other people might. There are players that want to play Thibs style, go ahead and bring him in and let him do whatever he wants for the next 3 years and remold the roster around his style, then extend him again even if you don't much care for what he's done. Jimmy Butler gives Orlando the biggest baddest star they've had since Dwight Howard left town. For the Magic this is a chance to be slightly better than the Denver Nuggets (well, I mean not right away but eventually....yeah).

(Actually, it's too late now, the Magic hired Steve Clifford as coach. Oh well, this was on my mind for a while, thought I'd go ahead and throw it out here anyway)

2018-19 Philadelphia Sixers

2017-18: 52-30 (3rd in the East, lost in the 2nd round)
Draft picks: 10,26,38,39,56,60
Signed for next season ($70.5m): Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Justin Anderson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu

This summer's free agents: JJ Reddick, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova, Demetrius Jackson
Their veterans are all free agents, which ones do they bring back? The Sixers will still need 3-4 vets to fill out the roster and they may well decide that Reddick, Johnson, Ilyasova and Belinelli are the right guys for them but they also have a ton of money to spend, a top ten pick and a full year of Markelle Fultz on the way. Personally I'd keep Belinelli and let the other three walk but I have no sense of what the Sixers will do. Jackson is on a 2-way contract.

Okay, let me start by saying Philly was probably the team I watched most this year (Jazz and Kings would round out my top three). One weird observation: I don't know that any of these guys actually like each other; Simmons and Covington are classic in-their-own-head kinda guys; Saric and McConnell are outgoing but nobody knows what they're talking about; Embiid is on his own planet. Fultz, Korkmaz, Luwawu all seem like nice guys but have yet to prove anything; I wouldn't be surprised if all the veterans are gone next year; Coach Brown has been through the tough times, are we sure he's ready for the good times? GM Colangelo inherited a raft of talent and so far has done nothing but wildly overpay for Fultz (and get nothing out of Jahlil Okafor). My observation was that the Sixers were better than the Celtics, who seem to be on their way to the Finals, so what changes do they need to make going forward?

First thing to remember is in 2 years, they'll have to re-sign Simmons and Saric (and possibly Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu), but until then they've got tons of money to spend. (Yeah...like...Lebron money) So who should they go get? I say there are four players for the Sixers to wheel and deal for: 1) Jaysun Tatum (not gonna happen), 2) Kevin Durant (he could be out there this summer, but I doubt it), 3) Kawhi Leonard (he fits perfectly, totally worth the money, but probably the most expensive to acquire), 4) Klay Thompson (bingo!).

Pointless trade idea: Sixers get Klay Thompson; Warriors get #10 pick and JJ Reddick (sign and trade; say, 3yrs/$45m).
This year in the playoffs I've been most impressed by Al Horford first and Klay second. When Klay is on, the game is over, he is so money, yet so disciplined, he'd be perfect with Simmons and Embiid and Saric and McConnell, he'd ice games for them, he is the perfect veteran/scoring machine for that crew. Hell I'd sign him to mega-monster whatever extension before the end of the summer. Lock this crew down for a stretch. And for the Warriors, they gotta pay KD again this summer and then lock down either Draymond or Klay...I think it's Draymond. I think Klay has better trade value, too, with 1yr/$18.9m left on his deal. Reddick may feel like redundancy but he is a helluva shooter and a reliable vet, Golden State can always use those. I suggest 3yrs/$45m, $15m/per seems reasonable to me, he's got good value, he knows how to contribute to a good team, 3 years at a good rate (bumping then declining: $14m, $19m, $12m), but Reddick plus the #10 pick is at least a defensible return for letting Klay leave town (they should take Saric, too); they'd rather have Klay but not a bad deal that saves money, gives them a hot shot rookie to throw in the mix (what if Trae Young falls there? Wow) and solidifies Draymond.

You've got to pair this crew with a veteran, who do you want? Demarcus Cousins...seriously, he'd be such a buzzkill for them. Even if the team was good, they'd be annoying and grumpy rather than fun to watch.

Lebron James? No. If I'm the Sixers I don't even want Lebron. Again the Sixers have 2 years before the bill comes due. They can comfortably go to Lebron and offer, say, 2yrs/$60, with the proviso that this is Ben's team, not Lebron's team and there will not--will not--be a 3rd year on the deal. I think Lebron can do much better than that somewhere, certainly Cleveland, probably many other places. So while I don't think Lebron-to-Philly is actually advantageous for either Lebron or the Sixers, I don't think it happens anyway. Why would the Sixers give Lebron more than any other team in the league, they are the most immune to his charms.

Paul George? No. Lemme ask you something: what the fuck has Paul George ever done? What big games did he win, which series did he drag his team past a goliath, how many times did he nail down the #1 seed or uplift a town so much as to transcend holy men and great statesmen? I think Paul George is a helluva player but why would the Sixers expect anything of him if they bring him in? They need to add a veteran to the youth movement but is it plainly obvious that Paul George is the right fit in any way? He's gonna command a huge paycheck, he's gonna steal attention and stats from the kids without necessarily contributing more wins--though clearly they'd be a good team. I'm not sure his style would mesh, I'm not convinced he makes Simmons or Embiid better players, I think he's a distraction rather than an addition. And a big money distraction, at that.

No, fuck all that, Sixers. I'd go after Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, and Enes Kanter. Smart is a free agent this summer, the Celtics choice: pay Smart now or pay Rozier next summer? I don't think they'll do both but I think Rozier's emergence in this playoff run has shown that he has more reliable (and cheaper) value as a 2nd string ball handler and scoring option than Smart's crazy highs/lows (though his highs are better than anything Rozier can do); I think the Celtics are a better team when Smart plays but I think Ainge reckons he can replace him, I think they let Smart walk. Sixers should be all over Marcus Smart. He's the veteran that just beat the youth movement through hard work and loyalty and love of the game and just a crazed desire to win, all of which these Sixers kids could really use. I think Smart forms a great platoon with Covington (I like Covington better coming off the bench, nice upgrade for the 2nd string), meshes perfectly with Simmons slashing and the Embiid down low takeovers. I say give Marcus Smart (say, 4yrs/$60m), with the instruction to go out there and win Defensive Player of the Year and next year in the playoffs, we want you punch Brad Stevens dead in the face, if Smart's down with all that, then welcome to the team, brother.

Aaron Gordon is a restricted free agent with the Magic. He's had moments of brilliance on both ends of the floor...but...just moments. Hey, I'm willing to chalk it up to Orlando just being bloody awful at everything for the last few years. I'd go hard after this reclamation project, that likes to move with the ball and knock down 3's, waterbug around the basket on the d side. Offer him 3yrs/$30m (team option 3rd year), tell him you want career highs in FG%, Free Throw Attempts and Defensive Rebounds. Simmons and Embiid are the stars, no need to unbalance that. Gordon is another young athlete to throw in the mix that doesn't cost too much or take up too much oxygen, he knows how to play and he'll be another fun addition to the lineup. 

If the Sixers want a big money free agent, how about Enes Kanter? He has a 1yr/$18.6m player option with the Knicks. He probably figures he can make than that and maybe he can. For the Sixers, Kanter can fill the 2 year window before the big contracts kick in. Kanter played with the crazed attack of Russell Westbrook, playing alongside Ben Simmons should be a boon for his FG%. Look, around the basket Kanter is great, really great, much better than you think kinda great; but, more than 5 feet from the hole, he gets pretty useless pretty fast. So the trick is to play him at center, hover around the basket for passes from Simmons or McConnell and collect the scraps from Embiid and Saric. I think he can be great with the Sixers. And, again, a reliable vet, not some attention hog that needs all the money. For 2 years he can come in and contribute (then they probably let him move on). For 2yrs/$45m does that budge Kanter to Philly?

Yes: the youth movement eventually needs a veteran to build around. But a guy like Lebron warps your franchise for a decade after he leaves, why throw in with that when you've already got the next two superstars in Simmons and Embiid? And a promising batch of cheap talent (Saric, Covington, McConnell, Fultz) around them with another batch of young talent to keep an eye on (Luwawu, Korkmaz). You've beaten the Lebron game, why play it? Stick with the greatest youth movement in eons, add more youth that everyone else gave up on (Smart, Gordon), get an underappreciated veteran to do his one thing really well (Kanter) and still have money to make moves at the deadline, without mortgaging your future to a guy that already is what he is. Durant is worth the effort, Kawhi (probably) is worth the effort and Klay Thompson is worth the effort (and Jaysun Tatum, but that ain't happening). That's it, Durant, Kawhi and Klay are really the only three in the league worth Machivellian moves this summer. I don't think Durant is truly available, I think Kawhi would be the most expensive move to make--the Sixers should go after Klay Thompson. What does it take to get Klay Thompson? I'd value Marcus Smart right alongside those guys because his presence really would be a game-changer for this team (and he's more likely to be available).

But, man, they don't need Lebron, they don't need Paul George or Cousins or Deandre or--OMG--Carmelo or Chris Paul or any of that stuff. There's a lot of hidden costs that come with guys like that. They're great players (well....not Carmelo) but a great player can be disruptive, they're not the process, they are where the process gets sidetracked. (Go get Klay!) Don't go nuts with the money just because you've got it. Go nuts when you can get what you want, not simply what's the most expensive.

2018-19 Utah Jazz

2017-18: 48-34 (5th in the East, lost in the 2nd round)
Draft picks: 21,52
Signed for next season ($89.3m): Rody Gobert, Ricky Rubio, Joe Ingles, Alec Burks, Jae Crowder, Thabo Sefelosha, Jonas Jerebko, Ekpe Udoh, Donovan Mitchell, Tony Bradley, Royce O'Neal

This summer's free agents: Derrick Favors, Dante Exum, Raul Neto, Erik McCree, Georges Niang
The Jazz have money to spend but let's start with a pointless trade idea: Crowder and Sefelosha to the Bucks for Jabari Parker (sign and trade); why do this? It allows Jabari to maximize his money, it gives the Bucks two defensive vets to put along side Giannis with the same salary as the guy they were gonna let go for free and it allows the Jazz to bring in a new guy without adding salary. (Kinda convoluted but I feel like it works for everybody) They then use the rest of their money to give Favors and Exum a raise (I'm not the Jazz, but I'm certain they have decided whether they want to keep Exum or not; if so, they'll pay him good money and if not, they won't give him shit). I guess they could spend their money on Demarcus Cousins but that's quite a cultural gamble; I think I'd rather keep it going with Favors and Exum. McCree and Niang are on 2-way contracts. And I like Neto as a 3rd string PG, if they let Exum go maybe they could bring back Neto on a reasonable deal. At any rate, they've got options but I suspect they'll choose continuity over new blood--the trade I suggested gives them new blood for minimal outlay.

I saw a mock draft that had Utah taking two Pac-12 combo guards: Troy Brown (Orgeon) and De'Anthony Melton (Southern Cal). I dunno either of those guys but sounds good to me, if they can score, they'd be welcome additions.

I think they'll bring back Favors, Exum and Neto. I can see them making Burks and Sefeolosha available to the trade market (I think this'll be a busy summer for trades, don't be surprised to see filler coming from the four corners of the earth). As for free agents, I think they've long coveted (is that the word?) Jabari Parker and I would suggest taking a run at Avery Bradley: a defensive minded tough guy that can knock down 3's and be a protector for young master Mitchell. Since I think they'll re-up most of their current roster, it feels like they'll only have enough for one decent addition. But if they wanted to go for a big money addition, how about JJ Reddick? Or if they're looking for an exciting young contributor, how about Jerami Grant? And for a Summer League-level last chance, how about Wade Baldwin?

I expect next year's lineup to look pretty similar to this year's. They do have money for at least one or two additions, especially if they choose to let go of current free agents. This is Donovan Mitchell's team now; flanked by Rubio and Ingles, with Gobert for up-the-middle defense, the core if firmly in place. Traditionally Utah has been forced to keep their current players because SLC is not much of a free agent destination. But perhaps Donovan Mitchell and Coach Snyder have changed that equation.

2018-19 New Orleans Pelicans

2017-18: 48-34 (6th in the East, lost in the 2nd round)
Draft picks: 51
Signed for next season ($96m): Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Solomon Hill, Nikola Mirotic, E'Twaun Moore, Alexis Ajinca, Darius Miller, Chieck Diallo, Frank Jackson

This summer's free agents: Demarcus Cousins, Rajon Rondo, Ian Clark, Jordan Crawford, Deandre Liggins, Emeka Okafor, Charles Cooke
Okay, the Pelicans have two big priorities this off-season: Cousins and Rondo. I'd suggest going the sign-and-trade route with Cousins; as good as he was, they're a better team without him and since there aren't a lot of teams with cap space, Cousins would have a lot more options if teams were willing to send out salary to bring him in. If the Pelicans can't work a trade, I'd let him go. You hate to let to him walk but I'd hate to pay him big big money when you just watched the team get better without him; he's getting expensive, he's getting injury-prone, he's still a total pain in the ass in every way. Rondo, though, they must have back next year. Rondo finally looks like he's in the right place, I'd keep him (and if I was Rondo, I'd stay). Personally I'm not a fan of Ian Clark (I'd rather have, say, Rodney Hood). Crawford, Liggins and Okafor are fine for the end of the bench, I suppose, but they're fungible for the Pelicans. Cooke is on a 2-way contract.

#51 is not likely to bring back any sexy rookies, I'd suggest trying to pick up one of those Nevada combo guards (Caleb Martin or Kendall Stephens) or taking a flyer on a foreign prospect (preferably one of those big Euro white guys that shoots 3's); either way, the draft is not where the Pelicans will bring in new blood....unless...

How about this pointless trade idea: Cousins to the Knicks for the #9 pick, a 2020 1st round pick and Joakim Noah. Think Noah has anything to offer the AD-Rondo-Holiday line? He's still vastly cheaper than Cousins and if the first year doesn't work out, they can stretch him for the second year (or talk him into retiring). (If this trade is made on draft day then the Knicks could put in a 2019 pick instead of 2020, but either way, we all expect the Knicks to be in the lottery for the foreseeable future, right?) Or how about Cousins to the Heat for Adebayo, Olynyk, Winslow and 1st round pick? Or how about to the Cavs straight up for Kevin Love?

They may well bring back Cousins, he was fucking great before he got hurt last year. I thought he interfered with Davis rather than strengthening him, it's hard to imagine Cousins meshing with Mirotic, I always thought Boogie was a decidedly un-Rondo kinda guy. In the end, I think Cousins can be better utilized by turning him into a raft of role players, but bringing back a great player hardly ever feels like a bad idea. No matter what they do, it's hard to imagine the Pelicans creating a clear separation from the logjam in the West, I expect them to see the Pelicans in the hunt for a playoff spot next year, and I would suggest casually expecting a post-season next year is a good next step for the Pelicans.

2017-18 NBA Conference Finals

Each series is taking a lengthy break following Game Two. 

Cavs 0-2 Celtics
Going into this series it seemed to me that the Celtics had every possible advantage and the Cavs had Lebron. The Celtics blitzed the Cavs in Game One, getting out to an insurmountable lead, with just about everybody shining out: Brown in the 1st, Tatum in the 3rd, Horford in the 4th, Smart making plays, Baynes knocking down shots, it was team effort (the exact opposite of the Cavs). In Game Two, the Cavs kinda tried to make more of an effort but really it was just Lebron. (Personally I think Game Two is the template: make Lebron do literally everything) For the Celtics this is playing out like the 2nd round: up 2-0 on a team that thinks they should be winning, if they can take Game Three, that would be a death blow.

I said Cavs in 7 and I can still see that happening, though the Celtics are clearly the more complete teams. I expect the Cavs to bounce back in Game Three: they'll be at home, Smith will make buckets, they'll have the good energy rather than the bad energy, I expect them to stave off the Celtics' death blow. But Game Four is up for grabs, the Cavs better win that one. If the Celtics take either of the next two games, they'll be tough to beat back in home in Game Five. I'll switch to the Celtics, hard to see the Cavs winning four of the next five, more likely that the Celtics just keep tightening up


Warriors 1-1 Rockets
Warriors shone out, took Game One, then hung back and let the Rockets get by them in Game Two. Not uncommon for the Warriors to let road games go, I'd be kinda shocked if the Warriors lost Game Three. And kinda shocked if they lost Game Four, either. The Rockets are good but they are much more likely to fall apart than pull it together. The Warriors are still getting better. I said Warriors in 6, I'll stick with that.

2018-19 Toronto Raptors

2017-18: 59-23 (1st in the East, lost in the 2nd round)
Draft picks: none
Signed for next season ($127.5m): Kyle Lowry, Demar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valenciunas, Norman Powell, CJ Miles, Jakob Poetl, Delon Wright, OG Anunoby, Malachi Richardson, Pascal Siakam, Alfonzo McKinnie

This summer's free agents: Lucas Noguiera, Fred Van Vleet, Lorenzo Brown, Malcolm Miller
I'm sure they'd love to bring back Van Vleet, a nice second rotation player for them, but I'm not sure the money is there. I can't imagine they bring back Noguiera, he's been there forever and virtually never played. Brown and Miller are on 2-way contracts.

The Raptors are in pretty much the same position this summer that they were last summer: no draft picks, no team/player options and no money to spend. So this year's team is pretty much next year's team. They've built great continuity with this crew over the years, they continue that on for one more year.

But here's a coupla pointless trade ideas.

Raptors get Chris Paul (sign & trade, say, 4yrs/$110m); Rockets get Kyle Lowry (2yrs/$64.2m remaining)
Raptors get Kenneth Faried (1yr/$13.7m); Nuggets get Jonas Valenciunas (2yrs/$34.2m)

They've already moved on from Coach Casey but the Raptors could use a roster shakeup too.  Because they don't have money for free agents or tasty draft picks, trading is their best bet to make changes. Might as well go big. I think CP fits just fine with DeRozan and Ibaka, the strong second string gives CP a good chance to hold leads from the bench, and a new coach brings a whole new style and attitude (a Chris Paul attitude). Long term this guarantees a star level, well-respect PG to run the show with DeRozan for the foreseeable future. Does this give them a chance to get past Lebron? Probably not, but isn't any worse than what's been getting drubbed the last two years. Look, the Raptors aren't going anywhere in the playoffs with the Celtics, Sixers and Bucks charging fast, but they can still be a steady playoff team with rabid home fans. Paul doesn't bode post-season success but it locks down the regular season for a while.

The Raptors would be getting a purely defensive, rebounding presence down low that doesn't need the ball but would be available for pick and roll lob dunks. Faried had some good times, if he could get his game back, he'd be fine in the Raptor rotation. And it unburdens their long term commitments, gives them a little more flexibility in future summers.

As for the Rockets, 2 years of Lowry is probably better than re-signing CP for 4-5 more years of steady decline. On the court, I think Lowry is a better fit for Harden than CP, he'll keep the offense from being sclerotic while hanging back for Harden's one-man show without complaint. Does this give them a better chance to beat the Warriors? No, but doesn't make them any less likely to beat the Warriors and it frees up future salary. And the Nuggets could use a down low presence that can rebound and score (and actually get on the floor), Valenciunas is the kind of all around okay player that goes well with their lineup variations and fits their salary cap well in the 2nd year.

These moves would leave the Raptors with a lineup of PG Paul, SG DeRozan, SF Ibaka, PF Anunoby, C Poetl, with Van Vleet, Wright, Miles, Powell, Siakam, Faried off the bench. They'd be moving JV's 1yr/1 option year for 1yr of Faried (whom they could cut if need be, too) and moving on from Lowry's huge deal for a similar (perhaps cheaper) long term deal with a hall of fame PG while (slightly) saving money against the cap. Again: this doesn't suggest they'll win in the playoffs but it should give the fans something to root for.

2017-18 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East
Cavs @ Celtics
Celtics got the coach (Stevens), the home court, a handful of newly beloved heroes (Tatum, Brown, Rozier, Smart) surrounding an underappreciated veteran (Horford) whose playing his ass off right now and has endured a lot already, they've got a lot of heart, they've got a lot of brains and they're playing on house money with home court; the Cavs got Lebron...whose got the advantage?

Looking back over my picks before the last round I had the Raptors in 7 (ha!) and the Sixers in 6. Well, the Raptors, I mean...that was never gonna happen. Meanwhile, the Celtics outwitted, outgutted, outplayed the Sixers (though the Sixers were the better team in general). The Celtics battled with the Bucks and got the best of the Sixers; the Cavs battled with the Pacers and got the best of the Raptors. Pretty even actually. The Celtics are doing it as a unit, the Cavs are doing it as a one-man show. The lone crazy efficient scoring machine or the coach that plays seven level chess? I gotta go with Lebron. He's the man, still the man, still gonna be the man for 5 more years at least. If Love and Korver both shine out, the Cavs can win in a landslide. But even if its just Lebron on his own, he always wins, so why wouldn't he win this time, too?

That said, the Celtics really do have everything going. Simmons is not Lebron (yet) but Embiid and Saric are a lot more daunting than anything the Cavs are trotting out there; I'm not the coach but I'd make Lebron score every point. Don't let Love or Korver touch the ball, don't let Smith get comfortable, use Baynes to outscore Tristan, work George Hill into the ground, torture Jeff Green on defense. Meanwhile, mark Lebron man-to-man, make him score every point, attack like hell when he's out of the game. The trick is you can't abandon the approach, it's a move toward attrition, thus you have to trust the long term plan even if it looks like its not working (which is how you get crushed in the modern NBA).  Does that win four games out of seven? Probably not but the whole point is to make Lebron outwork even his own unhumanly workload. And what if Lebron re-realizes that the Cavs aren't good enough and starts daydreaming about moving on? Not impossible that the Celtics keep a good groove going and the Cavs fall apart anew. Again: just because they beat the Raptors doesn't mean they've solved all problems. I don't think they're gonna run through the Celtics the way they ran through the Raptors, but they got Lebron.

I'll take Cavs in 7. I like the Celtics to keep some magic going but I can't go against Lebron in a Game Seven.


West
Warriors @ Rockets
Warriors got their groove going against the Spurs, kept it rolling against the Pelicans. The Rockets have the best chance of hanging with the Warriors, but I don't see that happening. I think Durant can outdo Harden, I think Curry can outdo Paul, I think Klay is better than the rest of the Rockets roster, if Iguodala keeps playing smart and Livingston and Looney keep giving good minutes, I don't see the Rockets winning much. The Warriors like to take a road game off but I bet they don't do that this time. I like the Warriors to take Game One and control the series quick like.

I'll take Warriors in 6.

2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

After four games in each series. 

Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Pelicans 116-121 Warriors
Warriors 100-119 Pelicans
Warriors 121-116 Pelicans

In Game One, the Pelicans didn't have it, W's came to play; not a close game. Game Two, Pelicans brought it, stayed close throughout, had their chances late, but I never thought the W's were gonna lose Steph's return; close but Warriors did what they needed to do. Game Three, Pelicans balled out, W's kinda took it easy (they do that sometimes on the road, just play a mellow game to see if they can steal one); Pelicans played well throughout, good win for them. Game Four, Pelicans just weren't crisp, they were never in the game, they made a run in the 4th, but like Game Two, I never thought the Pelicans were gonna win.

The Pelicans had their moments but just couldn't be consistent long enough to really outlast the Warrior onslaught. Good enough to convincingly do it once or twice, but not enough to win a series. The Warriors are hitting their stride, Klay is an all-star, Durant gets his shot every time, Curry is just the bonus, if he's feeling it, that's ballgame. The 1st rd Pelicans could've run with them but the 2nd round Pelicans just don't have enough offense to last. I'd be surprised if the Pelicans won Game Five, Warriors might mess around and let the Pelicans make a game of it late, but I think the Warriors win easily.


Jazz 96-110 Rockets
Jazz 116-108 Rockets
Rockets 113-92 Jazz
Rockets 87-100 Jazz

Game One Jazz come in without Ricky Rubio, make a game effort, but never shut down the Harden efficiency machine. Game Two shows the Rockets' propensity to gack up games with poor shooting performances leading to sloppy defense and rebounding; Mitchell was brilliant, he out-Hardened Harden. Game Three, Jazz just aren't crisp, get nothing from their bench, never get enough offense going; Rockets are easy and loose, playing with a big lead without much effort. Game Four, Jazz lose Exum, they're hemorrhaging bodies, no way they can keep up with the Rockets.

The Jazz had one classic win but otherwise just couldn't hang without Rubio. This series was never about the Jazz, but if they'd had Rubio at least they would've been the Jazz instead of Jazz-ish. This series was always about the Rockets and their propensity to gack up games. It was a long shot to think that the Jazz were the team that could give the Rockets fits but Game Two wasn't a fluke. I'd be shocked and amazed if the Jazz won Game Five, this series is over. The Rockets have shown they can give away games and they've shown they can crush teams without even playing hard. We've seen the Rockets' extremes, I expect they'll shut down Game Five pronto.

With the way the Warriors are dressing down the Pelicans, it's clear we're going to get the 1-2 matchup we looked forward to all year long. I imagined the Westbrook-PG duo getting it together to make a run against the dread pirate Golden State, but 3's a crowd and its the Harden-CP duo instead. If the Rockets play their absolute best for seven games, they could win four of them against the Warriors. But I don't see that happening. The Warrior supporting cast is starting to fall into place just as the stars are aligning as well. Home court for the Rockets in Game Seven doesn't impress me too much simply because I think Houston is one of the lamest home teams in all of sports. Lifeless crowd might drag down Harden and Paul, certainly won't give any advantage. The Warriors are rounding into shape but even at the best the Rockets still give away games, this is not a favorable combo for the Rockets. I gotta go with the Warriors in 6. 


Sixers 101-117 Celtics
Sixers 103-108 Celtics
Celtics 101-98 (OT) Sixers
Celtics 92-103 Sixers

Game One, the Celtics came to play, the team that got muddy with the Bucks went right at the Sixers and the Sixers weren't ready; game was a little closer than the score indicates, Celtics led the whole second half but they piled on at the end. Game Two, the Sixers jumped out to a big lead then gave it right back, still had their chances to win at the end. Game Three, again the Sixers just didn't make the necessary plays to secure the win, thus they go down 0-3 on their home floor. Not good. Game Four, the Sixers took control and held it pretty much throughout, the Celtics didn't mail it in but it wasn't their best game.

Okay, here's the weird part: I wouldn't be shocked if the Sixers came back and won the next three games. They've been the better team, they need to be proactive about cutting off Celtic runs, keep attacking the basket, and finish the smart plays that win games late in the game. The Sixers are quite capable of doing that in Game Five. They still have the better attack, they even have the better defense. Brown and Horford are starting to wear down a little bit, Shane Larkin got hurt in Game Four, not a huge loss but still a loss, Tatum is still a rookie too, Rozier has been over his head for weeks now (Baynes, too), Smart is never far from a season-ending injury. The Sixers have been the better team--let me say: the most capable team--and if they just recognize that, they can still keep winning. And the longer the Celtics have to go, the more rickety they become. I think I'd still take the Celtics in Game Seven, but I can totally see the Sixers winning Five and Six, they're still capable of being the better team (even three more times in a row). The Celtics really need to win this in Five, which is precisely the back-to-the-wall place the Sixers need to get to to play their best. Unlike the other three, I don't think this series is over.


Cavs 113-112 (OT) Raptors
Cavs 128-110 Raptors
Raptors 103-105 Cavs
Raptors 93-128 Cavs

Aw, man. Game One, Raptors should've won, controlled the game throughout, Cavs did not look cohesive, but Lebron took over the 4th quarter, Cavs tie it up, finally get the lead in OT. Shit, man, it was over right there. The Raptors did everything needed to win except be ahead when the clock runs out. Game Two was just a confirmation of the nightmare (dude, the way Lebron was dinking and dunking passes to Love and Korver for easy points was like practice--they turned the #1 team in the East into a practice squad!). Game Three, the Raptors played with pride, didn't get overwhelmed, made their run at the end, came up short. But hey, they tried. Game Four, was over quick, painless (right?). Man, for the Raptors to do this two years straight is just harsh. I bet you a dollar they run back this exact same team next year, I can see the same #1/swept out all over again (as a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan, this Raptor team gives me chills).

If the Celtics get past the Sixers in Five, they'll give the Cavs a challenge. Just because they can beat the Raptors doesn't mean the Cavs have solved all ills. The Celtics will attack them and make them work. If Horford-Brown-Tatum-Smart stay healthy, they'll punch back on the Cavs and Coach Stevens is a fitting match for Coach Lebron. I'd take the Cavs but the Celtics would definitely make them play. If the Sixers come back and win, they'll have a weird energy that Lebron may have no answer for; but if the Sixers can make the Celtics sweat a little, they might tenderize the morsel for the Cavs. The Celtics need to wrap up the Sixers in Five.