2023-24 Super Bowl LVIII

Chiefs 25-22 (OT) Niners

Some complained that this was a boring game but I was riveted throughout. Defense does not mean boring. The Niners looked great on the opening drive, I really think they were on their way to a TD but McCaffrey fumbled and that put a chill on the Niners that hung over them for the rest of the game. The Chiefs went 3-and-out on their first possession, something that hadn't happened in the Chiefs' last 8 (I think) playoff games, and it felt like we had a defensive grudge match on our hands, when it initially felt like it might be a scorefest.  

The Chiefs next possession drove deep, felt like they were going to the end zone, til Pacheco fumbled and now we were back to defensive sludge game. That's all right by me, man.  

The Niners finally got to the house on a nifty trick play where WR Jauan Jennings threw back across the field to McCraffrey for the TD. They had already scored an FG--the longest FG in Super Bowl history (well, until the next FG, which was KC scoring just before halftime to make it 10-3). The fact that the Niners only scored 10 points though they had way more offense was concerning, they needed more, they needed a bigger lead.  

The Chiefs got the ball after halftime, but Mahomes promptly threw an interception (looked to me like he had a high guy and a low guy, changed his mind too late, put the ball in between them for the easy pick), an uncharacteristic move. But up to this point that Chiefs had one nice pass play and that was pretty much the whole offensive output. I thought the 1st half would be a lot of passing to Kelce and running with Pacheco, but they didn't settle into that formula until the 2nd half.  

The Niners weren't able to capitalize, both teams were stung by untimely penalties that made 1st downs hard to come by. So both teams punted a lot. Good defense, but just as often it was offensive lapses that impeded progress. 

The real game changer was the muffed punt: the ball went off a Niner blocker, Chiefs recovered inside the red zone--a gift considering how little the Chiefs had moved the ball up to that point. The Chiefs quickly turned it into a TD (yes! That's how you do it: always throw at the end zone immediately after a turnover!) and suddenly they were up 13-10, though the Niners had kinda dominated the offense.  

The Niners came right back and regained the lead but they missed the extra point, which would loom large as the game continued. 

Both teams made big plays and both teams made crushing mistakes. Most of the crushing mistake were untimely penalties that forestalled a drive, but each team had bad turnovers, too. Both teams played well but neither played flawless. 

The Chiefs were able to tie it up, the game went to OT and here is where we get the main talking head talking point: the Niners gave the game away by taking the ball first in OT! I write this facetiously because as this is the first game in NFL history to be settled under these OT rules, no one knew what was going to happen next. Furthermore statistical analysis (not sure what there is to analyze, since this had never happened before, but mathematicians love to think math equals reality, so...), suggests that the odds are roughly 50.1 to 49.9, which is statistically irrelevant so still not sure the basis of anyone's pronouncements here, except that the Niners lost and therefore they did a stupid thing. The rationale, I suppose, is that if you go 2nd you know what you have to do; I have no idea why people think this is an advantage and if the Niners had scored a TD, then forced the Chiefs to go 4-and-out, these same people would be saying the Niners made the right move so....they key here is to ignore jugheads on the internet. 

I thought Shanahan was giving his defense a rest and that first drive in OT was pretty great and it might've ended in a TD if Chris Jones (the low key MVP of this game) hadn't thrown QB Purdy out of his rhythm, because he had Jennings coming open for the TD. Jones had another pressure like this earlier in the 4th quarter that prevented Purdy from connecting on a TD then, as well, so Jones basically single-handedly killed two Niners touchdowns.

As I said, both teams played good but not great. The Niners were probably actually the better team but they didn't put up enough points. That muffed punt changed the game and the missed extra point and the two Chris Jones stops kept the game in play for the Chiefs. And, well, Patrick Mahomes is the best in the business right now. The fact that he has the weakest receiver corps in his time in KC is all the more impressive! Mahomes has gone from youthful slinger with weapons downfield to thoughtful game manager who knows his defense is good enough to win games. That maturation is amazing. I never believed in the Chiefs throughout the playoffs, I only believed in Mahomes and along with Chris Jones making timely defensive plays, that was enough to win the Super Bowl. Amazing.  

It took me a while to write this and just yesterday the Niners fired the Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks, which strikes me as an unnecessary move. The Niner defense was pretty good in this game, although I thought it was shaky against the Packers and Lions in previous weeks, but someone needs to take the blame, I suppose, and Wilks and Shanahan had had their differences throughout the season. 

So pre-pre-pre-season pick for next year's Super Bowl. I feel like the AFC should be a lot better next year. The Jets will have healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Browns will have healthy Deshaun Watson, the Chargers should be rejuvenated by Coach Harbaugh, the Bengals will likely be out of their funk, the Pats will have a new QB, the Steelers look to be trading for QB Justin Fields to go with their still-good defense, the Jags will be back, the Raiders will likely be more consistent, the Texans have their offensive identity in place, so the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills will not have an easy march to the post-season. I had the Bengals to make the Super Bowl last year but they never really got going and then QB Burrow got hurt; I'll take the Bengals to bounce back.

In the NFC, the Packers are the team that impressed me most in the playoffs, they have their QB and their RB and their O-line was really great down the stretch, they've got a lot to work with. The Lions should be good again, the Cowboys won't suck (until the playoffs), the Eagles should still be pretty good top to bottom, the Bucs had moments (we'll see if they can build something on them), the Rams were pretty good when they wanted to be, the Commanders will have a new QB, the Falcons just need a QB, and the Niners will surely be back, too. If the Lions can keep the momentum going, it'd be great to see them have some actual success. 

I'll say Bengals-Lions is your next Super Bowl (yeah, we'll see if I still think that in August). 

2023 NFL Super Bowl

Chiefs 38-35 Eagles

I don't want to say it all came down to a bizarre penalty call, but that call--the first defensive holding penalty of the whole game and it came with less then 2 minutes to go--clearly cut into the Eagles' chances of getting the tying FG.  There were only 9 penalties in the entire and 6 were pre-snap penalties, so there were only 3 flags thrown during the run of play in the entire game! I cannot believe that the first holding penalty of the match occurred with under two minutes to go. Hated the call at the time, kinda hating it even more thinking back on it. 

The Eagles dominated the 1st half--indeed, without the fluky scoop-and-score on a weird Herts fumble, the Chiefs would not have been close at halftime. And, while I can understand the Chiefs made some adjustments (counterintuitively went to the running game to get yards and chew up the Eagle D), I don't really understand what happened to the Eagles offense in the 2nd half. They still moved the ball okay but they didn't convert on 3rd down as easily and that was the ball game. 

Mahomes was good (not great) but in the 2nd half he did what needed to be done and clearly the Eagles' defense got discombobulated--the last two TDs were because they didn't cover the receiver in motion (WTF?). The deft mix of running early and Mahomes' playmaking (the 20 yard scamper on a bad ankle will be the centerpiece of his Hall of Fame induction highlight reel), gave the Chiefs the momentum and, thanks to a lame late call, were able to ride that into the final minute. 

The Eagles D was great in the 1st half but the pass rush lost the script after halftime. The Eagles offense was great in the 1st half but not quite adequate after halftime. Somehow getting dominated in the 1st half was exactly what the Chiefs needed. The Eagles were good, the Chiefs were gooder.

Insanely early predictions for next year: I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC and as for the NFC, well, we have to see what the QB situations (Rodgers, Brady, the various Niner cast offs) are going to yield. It wouldn't shock me if the Rams re-emerge or if the Commanders find the right QB and actually look kinda good and I can't really rule out the Panthers or Saints making big moves. With all the potential turnover, it could be that the Eagles cruise back to the Super Bowl or that a new team comes out of nowhere. 

2022-23 NFL Conference Championships

Niners 7-31 Eagles

Well, this was shaping up to be a good match but when QB Brock Purdy was knocked out early on and the Niners had to go to their 4th (!) string QB, well, that was the ball game. The Niners put up a game effort, as lopsided as the score looks, the Eagles didn't exactly dominate. The killer: right before halftime, the Niners tried to be aggressive (not a bad idea: the 2-minute drill is the one thing the backup QB probably practiced most), but when QB fumbled, it set the Eagles up for a quick TD before the half. That was bad. Up til then the Niners had at least been in striking distance but that giveaway pretty much finished them off. The Eagles didn't really do much after that, they didn't have to. 

Bengals 20-23 Chiefs

I thought the Bengals started slow, didn't make the most of their chances and still could've won this game (or at least get it to OT). Some blamed the refs but I don't see it that way at all, I think the Bengals played their worst game since September--and still could've pulled this out! To me the lesson was that the Bengals were the best team in the AFC this season and only Patrick Mahomes kept them from the glory. Mahomes was pretty great, even on a shredded ankle. The Bengals were the better team but you still gotta beat the Chiefs.

Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5) (o/u 51)

I expect a good game, fun game, but I don't think it goes down to the wire. My initial thought was to go with the Chiefs as the underdog, but I've come around to thinking that the Eagle pass rush will be tough to beat. Much has been made of the Eagles' weak competition all season long, especially two playoff games where they were barely tested at all. Fine. But it got them to this point and I think that D is gonna be too much for Mahomes to overcome. I love Mahomes but I kinda feel like he's all the Chiefs have and I don't think he can elude the Eagles D for long enough to make this a game. I can see either team winning a close match, but I can't see the Chiefs laying a beatdown on the Eagles--but I can see the Eagles laying a beatdown on the Chiefs. If Mahomes gets knocked out, I'd say the game is over; but even if not, I'd say the Eagles can still shut him down and move the ball well enough to dominate. I don't really care that the Eagle schedule was soft, that don't matter at all. All that matters in this game is Mahomes' ankle and its not 100%, so I gotta go Eagles. I'll say Eagles 27-17 (Eagles and the under). 

2021-22 NFL Superbowl

AFC: Bengals 30-27 (OT) Chiefs

Well, the Chiefs were dominating this match until they just stopped playing. They rather easily scored TD's on their first three drives while holding the Bengals to a single hard fought FG. Then came the Perrine play (swing pass to the RB, he breaks one tackle, gets a nice block down field and goes 41 yards for the TD), and the Chiefs bumbled the rest of the game away. Right before the Half, the Chiefs got the ball to the 1-yard line--3 feet from a death blow!--and rather than taking the FG, they try a swing pass to Tyreke that goes nowhere, clock runs out. (WTF was that?) No worries, though, the Chiefs get the ball to start the 2nd half...but they go nowhere. And rather than getting back to their 1st half mastery--all they had to do was keep running the ball!--they floundered throughout and I've never seen Mahomes flail so badly. The Bengals, on the other hand, kept their game plan in order and even stole the lead before the Chiefs finally put together a good drive (though Mahomes inexplicably tried to fumble it away) to send the game to OT. Well, in perfect Chiefs fashion, they won the coin toss and then....went nowhere all over again. Bengals win. Weird, man. The Bengals made the necessary adjustments at halftime to fustigate Mahomes but the solution to the problem was to hand off to McKinnon and run up the middle for 4-5 yards every time, eat up the clock and pile up FG's. Yeah...the Chiefs did none of that. The Bengals are good and they did what they needed to do to win but the Chiefs were the better team when they felt like it. I have no idea why the Chiefs chose not to win this game but that's how it worked out.  

NFC: Niners 17-20 Rams 

Back and forth game, neither team took command, though the Niners finally gave it away with a late interception. Both teams had a few good drives but I'd say the Rams were the better offense, with a missed FG, an interception in the end zone and an ill-advised 4th down attempt mixed in with their punts. The Niners had the lead for most of the game but I never felt they were in control, nor that they would win. The Rams tend to start well and then wane late in the game, but here they played a complete game and were generally the better team. 

(Did anyone notice all the late hits, helmet-to-helmet, out of bounds hits, illegal shots after turnovers, etc., in both games? Dude, they even threw a flag on the Niners defense and then just picked it up--wtf? Weird, man, both games featured a number of what looked like illegal hits to me that did not get called, seems like the NFL is going full Rollerball to close out this season)

Super Bowl: Rams (-4) @ Bengals (o/u 48.5)

I've been watching the Bengals all season and though I think the Chiefs were better (oh, and I still believe Buffalo would've beaten the Bengals, too), the Bengals are not a fluke, they are legit good, that offense is really good and the defense has been getting better over the last 4-6 weeks or so; and if you haven't watched much Joe Burrow so far, I assure you that dude is fuckin' good (*). The Rams at their best are probably the best team in the league but they don't seem capable of 4 straight quarters of excellence, meaning the Bengals will have a shot at stealing the W. My basic take on these teams is that the Rams start well and finish poorly and that the Bengals start slow but get rolling by the end. Based on that I expect the Rams to be up at halftime and probably starting the 4th quarter, but that the Bengals will be in contention and could well steal this game late. In other words: the final 2 minutes or so should be good stuff. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Burrow lead a comeback, I think the Rams will make the necessary defensive stand and seal the victory. (I like either Aaron Donald or Von Miller to win MVP) I'll go with the Rams 27-24 (Bengals and the over).  

(*) My favorite Joe Burrow quality: whatever happened five minutes ago don't matter, that guy thinks only of the next play. You can tell, too, that his teammates kinda worship him--a necessary condition, I would suggest, in a truly successful QB.

2021 Super Bowl

 Chiefs (-3) @ (*) Bucs (o/u 55.5). I thought that line would be down to -2 but still at a solid FG, 40 minutes before game time.

Tom Brady is the unquestioned GOAT. Brady has been to 14 final fours in 19 seasons. Dude...that's just...that's just stupid. That's Magic Johnson territory, Bill Russell territory, that's John Wooden and Vince Lombardi kinda shit. There are no NFL QB's that even come close to that. And he'll retire as the greatest in the playoffs and regular season, by far. 

Patrick Mahomes is the one dude that seems capable of catching him. That's part of what makes this matchup so compelling. I watch every Super Bowl but I don't look forward to them as much as I've been anticipating this one. This is a good match between the right teams. I thought it would be the Packers instead of the Bucs, but while the Packers pretty much stomped everyone they played this year, for some reason they just couldn't beat the Bucs. The Bucs have been getting better over the last 8 weeks or so, they're peaking at the right time, and they had the magic to dispatch Aaron Rodgers.

I think they can do that to Mahomes, too. The Chiefs are now 16-2 (16-1 with Mahomes) this season. That comes after winning the Super Bowl and a shit ton of games last year. so they're in Crimson Tide territory in the ridiculousness of their recent dominance. That said, for a dominant team they have to eke out victories in the 4th quarter an awful lot. That's not a bad thing, just that they're method of winning games tends to leave a lot of room for mistakes. 

The fact that the Chiefs don't win til the 4th quarter gives the Bucs a lot of room to put up some points. And I think they will. And I think the Bucs D-line will get to the makeshift unit the Chiefs have going tonight (their one clear weakness) and Mahomes will be bad scrambling more than good scrambling. Either Hill or Kelce will put up numbers but--unlike the Bills--I think the Bucs will shut down one or the other and minimize the damage. That pass rush will slow down the onslaught to give the Bucs a lead going into the 4th quater.

I think the game will still be fun deep in the 4th quarter but I think the Bucs will put up too much of a lead to come back from. I'll say Bucs 34-30 (Bucs and the over). 

That said, I can see the Chiefs doing the same thing to the Bucs. I can see the Chiefs pulling it out late, I can see the Bucs coming back and winning late. I can see either team winning close but what I don't see is a blowout. I think this one stays close throughout, should be a final possession kinda game. Ahhhhhh....that sounds good. 

(*) Literally.

2020 Super Bowl

Niners 20-31 Chiefs

A coupla personal observations: before the game I picked Chiefs 38-23 (so I expected each team to have one more score), tied at 10 at halftime I surmised the Chiefs would win 31-17 (close), at 5 minutes to go Niners up 20-17 I said to my friend, 'there's still enough time for the Chiefs to score two touchdowns' (nailed it). Strange game but the result still seems about right. Indeed, it isn't the final score that seems weird, it was the first 75% of the game that seemed weird!

Mahomes was not good for most of this game, the Chiefs offense was unusually sluggish and while the Niners were good, they weren't dominant. This was a close game that felt like the Niners had figured out the Chiefs for the most part. But while the first three quarters of the game were a Niners-inspired sludgefest, it was only a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes got loose, made plays and won the game. And down the stretch it was exactly what I thought it'd be: either Jimmy G or the Niners defense would have to make plays. Jimmy G missed a long ball to Sanders that would've put them back on top and the Niners D just ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. This isn't an indictment on Jimmy G (I still think he can be really really good) or the Niners D (that pass rush is gonna trouble for years to come), just an acknowledgement that Pat Mahomes is a magician and arguably the best in the game right now.

One thing, though: there was much complaint about Coach Shanahan's clock management at the end of the 1st half and I gotta say not only the haters wrong about Shanahan--Shanahan's moves were brilliant! It gets completely undone by the bad pass interference call on George Kittle (bad call!), but if you take that out the Niners have the ball in FG range with two timeouts and 15 seconds left. They've still got two shots at the end zone and an extra three points in the pocket--Shanahan made all the right moves, it was the refs that shot him in the foot. Shanahan didn't call timeouts earlier because he didn't need to, he knows that it's only the last 20 seconds that matter, so why stop the clock with 90 seconds to go? Unfortunate the way it played out for him but he was right and the haters all missed the point.

This really was a good match between two good teams and it stayed competitive throughout, though only got exciting late. Good W for the Chiefs! Congrats! Not a lot of fireworks in this game and it was over so quick, but an even match between two good teams and that's nothing to complain about.

Pre-pre-pre-season prediction: I like the Niners to come out of the NFC again next year, they've got the offense and the defense to get it done, I do believe in Jimmy G and in that defense and I think they'll be tough to stop going forward. Also, I just don't see anyone else in the NFC gets notably better next year: Packers, Saints and Seahawks are just getting older, Rams, Eagles and Vikings need to take a step forward (maybe but maybe not) and no one else even seems capable of going toe-to-toe with the Niners. As for the Chiefs, well, they'll have the Ravens to look forward to and a lot of teams that could make big leaps (Browns, Bills, Raiders, Steelers, Titans all come to mind) and we're not even sure that the Patriots are done (feels like it, but I'll need to see a corpse before I declare them dead).The AFC is a bit more of a minefield but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chiefs-Niners show up again next year.

As for the halftime show, I had it on mute but it sure was a visual spectacle! And, honestly, that's all the halftime show is good for anyway. We don't really need a musical act, just give us 15 minutes of visual craziness and going the Busby Berkeley/relentless visuals route is the kind of idea the NFL should probably stick with.


PS -- I know nobody asked but if we're really thinking Tom Brady might end up somewhere other than New England, doesn't Cleveland seem perfect for him? Don't you think Brady looks at Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb and that offensive line and thinks, 'Dang, I can win a Super Bowl with that?' The Browns are still looking for a Coach, why not bring in Josh McDaniels and give Tom Brady big money for 2 years? Yeah, I know what you're thinking: but what about Baker Mayfield? Yeah....what about him?

2019-20 NFL Super Bowl

Conference championships
Titans 24-35 Chiefs
I thought the key to this game would be the Chiefs getting out to a quick lead to neutralize the Titan rushing attack.  Uh, not so much.  Titans got up 10-0 right off the bat and it seemed like the Chiefs were on their heels.  But then Mahomes made plays, Chiefs scored points and soon enough the Titans were an afterthought in their own game. A note on Derrick Henry: back in the Laker threepeat days, I remember every time the Lakers came down the court and didn't give the ball to Shaq, I wondered, 'Why aren't you giving the ball to Shaq?' That's what Derrick Henry was in this playoffs: every time the Titans did something other than give the ball to Henry, I wondered, 'Why didn't you give the ball to Henry?' Seriously, this is one of those games where the coach must've pulled Henry aside and said, 'Okay, kid, you're getting the ball 40 times this week. Be ready!' But for some reason the Titans mixed up their game plan and it just didn't work, they spun their wheels and once the Chiefs got going, this was all over. Mahomes is the man.

Packers 20-37 Niners
I thought this match would be closer, thought the Packers would dial up something different then their regular season thrashing by the Niners. Uh, not so much. Niners came to play, dominated the game early. I thought Aaron Rodgers was primed to have a big game but frankly I thought Rodgers kinda killed the Packers: a bad fumble when driving in the 1st half and then a bad interception right before halftime for the Niners to pile on their lead and it was over. The Packers accumulated some points in the 2nd half but it never really mattered. The Niners controlled this game completely on both sides of the ball. 


Super Bowl
Niners @ Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 54)
I think the Niners are the better team top to bottom but I am more convinced that the Chiefs (re: Patrick Mahomes) will make the plays necessary to win the game. In order for the Niners to hang they will need either a defensive TD and/or Jimmy Garropolo to make plays. Both of those things are quite possible but we haven't seen Jimmy G make plays so far and while I think he's capable, I just haven't seen it yet so I'm more convinced in Mahomes. Likewise, that Niner D is good--that pass rush is GREAT--but Mahomes has beaten good defenses before and I just have more faith in Mahomes than in anything the Niners are bringing. I think the Niners get out to a quick 10-0 lead, I think the Chiefs are up at halftime 17-16. Then I like the Chiefs to wear the Niners out in the 2nd half. Yeah, I know the Niners really are the better, more complete team, but the Chiefs have a playmaker that can squash all that pronto. I like Chiefs to win 38-23 (Chiefs and the over).

2019-20 NFL Conference Champinships

Last week's games:
Vikings 10-27 Niners
Really good performance by the Niners, really solid all over the field, played their game and played it well. They looked really good. I thought the Vikings' strengths coming into this game were their O-line and D-line, but the Niners ripped right through both of them. The Niners ran the ball well and their pass rush wreaked havoc on the Vikings backfield. The Vikings completely ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter and the Niners just put it on them late. The Niners were really impressive and the Vikings just could not hang.

Titans 28-12 Ravens
The Ravens picked a horrible time to play their worst game of the year. Listen: a trait of Lamar Jackson that I noticed during the season was his tendency to get really down on himself for any mistake--I mean REALLY down on himself. You wanna see a youngster learn from his mistakes and a little bit of self-flagellation is gonna happen, but Lamar struck me as so hard on himself that a coach should probably take him aside and tell him to chill the fuck out. The danger of too much self-hatred is this game: the Titans got off to a good start, Lamar threw a flukey interception and it was all downhill from there. The Titans had two quick bursts of offense: two quick TDs in the 1st quarter and then two more quick ones in the 3rd quarter, but otherwise the Titans hardly an imposing offense--even with Derrick Henry dominating the game. Defensively, though, I thought the Titans were just about perfect, that spread secondary gave Lamar nowhere to go while that pass rush put the pressure on. An impressive performance by the Titans defense and they came to play hard, but really this was still available to the Ravens, but they just couldn't get going. Sad to see another tough L for Lamar Jackson this early in his career after such a great season, but the Titans did what they had to do.

Texans 31-51 Chiefs
Man, the Texans really let this one get away. They were up 14-0 instantly, fans in the stadium hadn't even gotten the seats warm and were already afraid that Titans-Ravens game was a preview for them. The Texans got another gift of a muffed punt to go up 21-0 ten minutes into the game! The turning point for me was on their next drive: the Texans got inside the 10-yard line and instead of going for it on 4th down, they took the FG; I would've gone for it, that was the jugular moment and even it failed it would've shown faith in the offense and the defense without really giving the Chiefs a momentum change moment. Instead, the momentum change came the next time the Texans had the ball when they faked a punt in their own territory and it failed. From that moment on, the Chiefs rolled and just...well, straight fuckin' destroyed the Texans. Imagine spotting the other team a 24-0 lead, giving up the entire 1st quarter and then still scoring 51 and easily covering the spread...whooch! (So, Titans fans....how ya feeling about your chances?)

Seahawks 23-28 Packers
The Packers played a good solid game: no crazy highs or lows, just stuck to the script and grinded forward to victory. The Seahawks are nice and Russell Wilson kept things spicy right to the end but they just didn't have enough to stop the Packer attack or keep up with the scoring on the other side. The Packers played smart, didn't go above and beyond just did what they had to do, a good workmanlike performance. The Seahawks are a tough team to figure because they live so much on whatever Russell Wilson invents each week, you can never tell when he's gonna make magic or when it's all going to catch up to them; in previous years I underrated the Seahawks but this year I think I overrated them.


This week:
Titans @ Chiefs (-7.5) (o/u 52)
My pre-season pick here was Chiefs over Ravens, with the Patriots being the most likely other opponent. So looking up and seeing the Titans instead makes it seem like a slam dunk, right? Well, I'd say 'yes'! Yeah, the Titans are playing really good right now, the D is keeping everything in front of it and Derrick Henry is re-inventing what an RB can do, they're the hot team and they look like a great cover as an underdog, right? Well, I'd say 'no'. Look I expected the Pats to beat the Titans because I just thought they'd make the plays to win the game but they didn't; I thought the Ravens would beat the Titans but instead they gave into their stage fright and fumbled the game away. Notice that in neither of those game did I really give the edge to the Titans playing great football. The Titans are playing good right now but so far they've come up against superior teams that failed to take what was right in front of them. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna be that way. I think the Chiefs are gonna score every time they touch the ball--because that Titans D is playing so well, it'll give the Chiefs the perfect opportunity to game plan. And if they can establish a good offense, build a lead, then the Titans will have to throw the ball and gamble on defense and those are not the strengths of this Titans team. They've had a good run but I think it ends. I'll say Chiefs 38-16 (Chiefs and the over).

Packers @ Niners (-7) (o/u 45)
These teams played a few weeks ago and the Niners housed 'em, wasn't even a game, it was over and then the Niners just kept going. I think people are expecting that to happen again but I don't. I think the Packers are going to play their best game, which will still come up short, but it'll give the Niners pause. The Niners should be able to move the ball but Jimmy G hasn't been here before, I expect not merely an interception or two but probably really badly timed ones that'll give the Packers some life. I expect Rodgers to play smart and Adams to make enough plays to keep this close. Make no mistake: I still think the Niners are the better team and will pull this out, but a close game here will probably be a blessing for them. I'll say Niners 27-21 (Packers and the over).

NFL Final Four

NFC

Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!

Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.

Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.

Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.

Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).

AFC

Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).

Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.

Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.

Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.

Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.

I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.

The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.

I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.

NFL Playoffs Wrap Up

Chiefs 20-27 Pats
The Pats get the ball with about 7 minutes left and a two TD lead. Instead of handing off to Steven Jackson and running off some clock, they pass 3 times and go three-and-out. Why? I appreciate wanting to stay true to the offense and keeping up the intensity but at that point running off clock is more important than scoring points. I've always had a soft spot for the Brady-Belichick Pats (and Vladimir Putin, too, so....ya know) and I admire the desire to run through the finish line but, dude, there are times when Belichick does the dumb thing instead of the easy thing (go back and check out that absurd L they suffered to the Eagles this year). The Chiefs were so discombobulated by the end (that last scoring drive was just plain weird in their lack of intensity and proper clock management) that it didn't matter that the Pats gave them a chance to win. But one o' these days Belichick's high octane machismo is gonna get the Pats shot in the foot. I was right on the winner and the fave but I thought the Pats would keep it under (which they would have if they'd just run out the clock on that 4th quarter drive). Pats go to Denver next.

Packers 20-26 (OT) Cards
The Cards played tight, man, the anuses were clinched that night. That said I was impressed with the Packer defense (best I saw them all year long) and Rodgers was able to run up good yards with receivers even the fiercest Packer fan had never heard of. And OH MY GOD--another hail mary TD!?!? One thing when it comes against the sorry Detroit Lions but the mighty Arizona Cardinals should never have allowed that. I'll be generous and say it was redeemed by the brilliant (brilliant!) play call of a shovel pass to Fitsgerald on the goal line. But really this game was all about the Cards playing tight and the Packers playing like solid professionals. The Cards were the better team on both sides of the ball but they better come strong against the Panthers or they will get run out of the stadium. I was right on the winner but I missed the fave and the over. Cards off to Charlotte next week.

Seahawks 24-31 Panthers
I thought the Panthers would whomp the Seahawks and for the 1st half I was correct, Panther sup 31-0 at halftime. But the Seahawks let it all hang out in the 2nd half and the Panthers played rather tentative and Seattle had their shot at pulling off the miraculous comeback. But the deficit was just too large and time ran out on them. This was such a 1st half/2nd half kinda game that its hard to definitively say the Panthers were the clearly superior team but they definitely came out stronger and punched the Seahawks early. The Panthers play with a swagger that is gonna be tough for the hesitant Cards to keep up with. I was right on the winner, the fave and the over in this one.

Steelers 16-23 Broncos
Roethlisbeger shrugged off injuries and played well in this game (I thought the horse tranquilizers might wear off at halftime but he played well throughout). The Broncos moved the ball okay but struggled to put into the end zone, piling up FGs to stay in the game. The Steeler D played well, the offense had moments but the Broncos really were the better team despite Peyton Manning's so-so performance. The Bronco D is solid but the offense would be better served by putting Peyton out to pasture and letting Brock Osweiler manage the game. I thought the Broncos would score more and while I was right on the winner, the Broncos failed to cover and the points were under. The Pats are coming to town next week.

NFL Playoffs Round 2

Chiefs at Pats (-5)
Chiefs have freight trained their way through the last two months of football, absolutely plowed the Texans in Houston last week, they're running the ball well, playing good D, not turning the ball over, playing good special teams--and the last time they played the Pats (fall of 2014) they won like 400 to nothing. One could argue they're the hottest team left in the final eight. The Pats, on the other hand, have lost 4 of their last 6 games, feature mostly injured players in the skill positions and the offensive line and various off-field weirdness this week appears that the team is entire disarray. Yeah, I'm taking the Pats. The Pats scored less then 27 points only 4 times this year and as well as the Chiefs are playing, I don't see them stopping the Pat attack. Nor do I see them moving the ball on this kinda underrated Pats D. The Chiefs are a team of managers, they've got a bunch of dudes that don't make dumb mistakes but without Jeremy Maclin (questionable as of now) they're devoid of playmakers and to win in Foxboro, they'll need some special plays. I'll take the Brady-Belichick attack to grind down the Chiefs, easily cover and stay under (44.5). I'll say Pats 27-10.

Packers at Cards (-7.5)
The Packers started 6-0, stumbled down the stretch but looked like the old school Pack against the Redskins last week. Ehhh, I'm not buying it. I think Aaron Rodgers is amazing (won't get any MVP votes this year, but dude he's the only reason they've gone this far!) but the rest of the team is so uninspiring. But the Redskins are even more uninspiring, thus what looks like a resurgence was merely a mirage. The Cards, on the other hand, are the truth. They've been stomping people all year long, Carson Palmer is better than he's ever been, Bruce Arians is probably the Coach of the Year and that D is as good as any squad in the league. I do not see them blowing this one. I think Rodgers runs for his life and gets little help from his teammates. Cards to easily cover but I'll go over (50) because I think points will get scored. I'll say Cards 37-20.

Seahawks at Panthers (-2)
The Seahawks are coming off a gritty, gutty (lucky as shit) win in the frozen tundra of Minneapolis last week. Though they've made 3 straight NFC Finals, they don't seem like the juggernaut they've recently been. Last week's victory was a tough one, we'll see what they have left. Though the Panthers lost only once this year, they're giving only 2 points at home to a team that just got lucky as hell after a frustrating physical game in blistering cold. Are we still not convinced that the Panthers are good? Dude, the Panthers scored below 27 points only 3 times this year: 20 in a W in week 1, 24 in a W in week 2, 13 in their inexplicable loss to the Falcons in Week 16. Scoring points shouldn't be a problem though it is worth noting that the only good team the Panthers played all year long (Colts, Eagles, Packers all disappointing) was the Seahawks whom they beat 27-23 in week 6. They've played the Seahawks each of the last 4 years now, playing them stout each time and this time (I'd say) come in as the superior team. I'm convinced the Panthers are good, I think Cam Newton and Ron Rivera are on the short lists for MVP and Coach of the Year, I think the home fans in Carolina are ready for a big victory and I don't think they'll be the least bit intimidated by the big bad Seahawks. In short, I think the Panthers are gonna crush the shit out of the Seahawks. I'll say Panthers 38-13, which is Panthers and the over (44.5).

Steelers at Broncos (-9; opened at -5.5).
The Steelers got even luckier than the Seahawks last week and IMHO never should've gotten this far. Even at their best I didn't think they were a very strong team outside of an insane ability to chuck the ball down the field. They come into this game without #1 WR Antonio Brown, #1 RB D'Angelo Williams (actually #2 but Laveon Bell has been out for many many weeks) and #1 (in our hearts) QB Ben Roethlisberger. The punters clearly have no love for the depleted Steelers going on the road and I can't disagree--since I didn't think they'd be good enough even WITH all those guys! The Broncos have the #1 D in the league, a crazy home field advantage and have had a week to get healthy (as opposed to a week of the Steelers getting even more banged up). This would seem like a gimme, right? Well, yes and no. Another one of Broncos' upsides is that they have one of the greatest QBs of all time, Peyton Manning....except that Peyton's been shite all year long and except for a recent victory over al-Jazeera, has looked very very (very) bad for most of this season. But he's back in the lineup when frankly Brock Osweiler would be better for this team. Look, the Steelers are coming in depleted against the top defense in the league, the Broncos need only a solid manager to guide this team to victory. If Peyton does just enough to win, the Broncos will romp; if he tries to do too much, he might just Favre this game away. This game is so one-sided its scary. If Osweiler were playing, I'd take the Broncos and give the points without hesitation...but Peyton freaks me out. I'll still go ahead and take the Broncos to win big (say, 34-16) but of all the home faves, I feel like the Broncos have the best chance to blow it. I'll go ahead and say Broncos and the over (39.5) but, man, I wouldn't put MY money on it.

NFL Playoffs

Chiefs (-3) at Texans
The Texans have a solid D....and not much else. Though they've played well for the last two months, they don't have any really impressive wins. The Chiefs don't really either but their early season losses are better and hide the fact that they were actually pretty good all year long. The Chiefs are the better team, better QB, better weapons, probably even a better D line and though the offense isn't overwhelming, they don't turn the ball over and that's the only hope the Texans have to score points. I just don't see how the Texans move the ball at all.  Gotta take the Chiefs to cover.

Steelers (-2.5) at Bengals
The Steelers are the popular pick as dark horse these days, while the Bengals haven't won a playoff game since...shit, I don't even know. But I watched both of these squads a lot this year: the Bengals are a legit squad on both sides of the ball and even with a backup QB, I think they can preserve field position and score points; the Steelers are so-so on D, a running game that is nice but nothing superlative, and while they have a great receiving corps, I'm not overhwelmed by the pass protection. If Big Ben can get over the top down field to his receivers then they can beat anyone in the league, but beyond that I don't think they're a very good team. Also, Big Ben is capable of throwing many many interceptions. I see the latter, I think the Bengals D is stout and I think even AJ McCarron will be good enough to get past the Steelers. I'll take the Bengals to cover and win.

Seahawks (-3.5) at Vikings
A strange thing looking over the Seahawks schedule this year: their most impressive win is at Minnesota in Week 13 (I'm not buying into a win at Arizona in Week 17, the Cards didn't need it, didn't put forth their best effort). Otherwise they lost to every other good team they played: Packers, Panthers, Bengals, Cards (in addition to getting inexplicably swept by the mediocre Rams). The Vikings lost in Week 1 at San Francisco but the other losses are legit: @Broncos, Packers, Seahawks, @Cards. Their wins include Chiefs, @Raiders, @Falcons, Giants, @Packers. The Vikings also remind me as a better version of the Rams, who seem to own the Seahawks. Both teams have been playing well for the last two months, so how do we weight the Seahawks victory at Minnesota in Week 13? Was that a preview of what's to come or where the Vikings playing opossum? I think the Vikings are legit, that D line is one of the best in the league, Bridgewater is underappreciated, Peterson is one of the best RBs in the league and I'm still kinda skeptical of the Seahawks and trying to win in someone else's house twice in the same year is pretty rare. All that said, I think the Seahawks' advantage is in the coaching: they've made deep runs the last 3 years, I think they can do it again whereas the Vikings staff has no track record whatsoever. I feel like the Vikings can hang but if the Seahawks get an early lead, I think they'll squeeze the life out of the Viking running game. I'll take the Seahawks to cover (but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings show more than they've shown so far).

Packers (-1) at Redskins
Packers started off 6-0, looked great, arguably the best team in the league heading into their Week 7 bye. Then the wheels came off. Lost @Broncos (no sweat, Bronco D is solid, that particular game is when the Broncos finally got their running game going). Lost @Panthers (no sweat, that was the moment we all finally realized that the Panthers are actually good). Lost to the Lions (red flag! Dude, the Lions were trying to sooooooo hard to give that game away! And the Packers still couldn't take it!). Win @Vikings (sigh of relief for Packers fans, good win on the road against a feisty division opponet). Lost to Bears (uh oh, Packer fans getting the sweats again). Win @Lions (nice to get the W but that was the luckiest win anyone has seen in years, not exactly a confidence boost). Back to back W's against the Cowboys and @Raiders (okay, getting back to business, winning the games that ought to be won). Then finished with back to back losses to @Cards (no sweat, the Cards are frickin' good this year) and Vikings (uh oh, that was basically a home playoff game). Outside of Aaron Rodgers I think the Packers kinda suck. The D is not stout, those recievers are actually pretty terrible, offensive line isn't inspiring confidence, special teams isn't too special--what makes anyone think they're going to win a playoff game on the road when they basically just lost one at home? Redskins started mediocre, more or less stayed mediocre but they have won 6 of their last 8 games. They seem to have found their QB of the future and the D isn't bad. But are they better than the Packers? Well, they might be. The Packers are not terribly impressive right now and I think the pressure is on Rodgers to make plays in this game; if he does, the Packers can win but if the Redskins can keep him from doing big things, I think the Redskins can win. Indeed, I'll take the Redskins to win it at home.