NBA Draft recap: Miami Heat

The Heat traded away a coupla 2nd round picks to move up in the draft for Shabazz Napier (Lebron's favorite (available) PG, apparently)*.  I'm not as big a fan of Napier as Lebron is but then again I didn't project Napier to be playing with Lebron, so I guess his future prospects are better than I anticipated.  But this doesn't do much for the roster (it makes Mario Chalmers expendable but Mario Chalmers pretty much already did that).  Napier is a hard-nosed bulldog whereas Chalmers is a passive, so-so baller.  I guess I'd rather have Napier but only because he's younger and cheaper, not because he's really any better.

Free agency is where the Heat look to re-tool and they need to.  The Eastern Conference is a wide gully stretched out before them but the Championship belt resides in the West and if Miami wants it back they need to get better.  Bosh, Lebron, Wade, Haslem all opted out of their deals.  (Ideally Haslem will retire and the Heat can save $5m on the Cap next year but since he opted out of the last year of his deal I'm guessing that means he'll want something like 2 years at $3m; I'd rather pay Haslem that money to come to the games wearing flashy suits, sitting court side with Riles and Zo and Jimmy Buffett or else bring Haslem back as the highest paid strength coach in the league.  But he thinks he can still play so you gotta pay him--oh yeah, Haslem is definitely juiced in with the Miami mafia!)  If they can get those guys to come back at bargain rates then they'll have something like an extra $17m to bring in free agents.  Is that Carmelo money?  I say no.  (In fact, I say haaaaaaa-il no!)

A modest suggestion for 4 free agent targets: Rodney Stuckey, Patrick Patterson, Dejuan Blair, Paul Pierce.  Stuckey is veteran stability off the bench, Patterson is the young blue collar guy that does the dirty work, Blair is the big body that clogs the lane on D allowing the weakside shot blockers to re-appear (and a Spur killer), Pierce is the star power to get the reporters all jazzed up; and I'd re-sign Michael Beasley.  Stuckey and Pierce would have to play for less money but they'd breeze through the East so surely you can lure them in with promises of playoff bonuses; Blair is still pretty cheap, Patterson still young enough to be affordable (though only the Raptors can retain his Bird rights), Beasley still desperately at the end of his rope.  Work in Cole, Haslem, Napier and Anderson and you've got size, speed, tough youth, savvy veterans, scoring off the bench, and the physical presence in the paint that your big three need to compete with the Spurs or Thunder.

What you really need to do, Heat, is to double-deal Wade and get rid of Haslem.  I know, I know, nobody ever wants to do the cutthroat stuff but Wade is killing y'all and if you give him 4 years/$60m that is a big ol' Stoudamire hanging around your neck if you think you're gonna keep Lebron happy for 4 more years.  Bosh will get antsy and Lebron doesn't have to hang around to the bitter end, he can do the hired gun at the end of his career, I think he'd be happy to give up the ball and the spotlight to get some open shots, some easy defensive assignments, and a ride on someone else's coattails deep into the playoffs--I can totally see that.

I thought this was the summer when it all broke up.  Lebron would go back to Cleveland, Bosh would go to the Lakers, Wade would sign one more 2 year deal and hobble around for mega-money, Riley would retire, Haslem and Battier and Allen and Rashard Lewis would retire, the whole thing would be turned into a TV movie, with only Spoelstra left behind desperately trying to re-make himself.  But the Spurs interrupted the love fest finale, the Cavs are showing themselves to be utterly inept at picking talent, and the Lakers are currently being Stoudamire-d by a horse named Kobe, so none of those options became available.  Lebron to the Clippers?  *Pphhht* no way.  Lebron either goes back to Cleveland or he stays in Miami; when Wade and Riley finally head on and Bosh is itching to find a new crew, then Lebron could do the hired gun thing for a few years but other than Cleveland there's no place he'd leave Miami for.

The re-up deals could work something like this: 4 year/$60m for Wade, 2 years/$30m for Lebron, 2 years/$6m for Haslem...but what about Bosh?  Does Bosh get Wade's 4-year deal or Lebron's 2-year deal?  All the talk of mega-deals, blockbuster free agent moves, and greedy draft order shuffling that we've endured this year might all come back next year if Lebron and/or Bosh and/or Carmelo end up going back to their teams with 2-year deals with a 1-year opt out.  The speculation would continue on into summer 2015 when Lebron, Melo and Bosh....sign another round of 2-year/1-year opt out deals...and summer of 2016 looks just like the last one and the one before.  Oh well, a good time to be a commentator!  

The Heat should still dominate the East.  There are perhaps a coupla blockbuster moves out there waiting to happen but Melo to the Bulls is the only thing I've heard that might give the Heat some pause (even Love on the Bulls sounds kinda Pacer-ish to me).  What can the Nets do to get better?  Or the Pacers?  Or the Knicks or Celtics?  I think the Wizards, Hornets and Hawks are on the gradual upward glide path but without a big deal I don't see any of them really competing with whatever the Heat can put around Lebron.  But then again, the roster construction phase has a long way to go.  And right now the Heat only got, like, 3 guys.


* The Hornets (nee Bobcats) gave Miami the #24 pick (Shabazz Napier) and in return got #26 (PJ Hairston), a 2nd round pick (#55), a 2019 2nd round pick and 'cash considerations'.  They then traded #55 to OKC for 'cash considerations'.  We'll dispose of the other pick (a 2019 2nd round pick is, if you think about it, the farthest off into the future that a team can transact, thus it is the LEAST tangible commodity in the entire universe of basketball), and let's recap: the Hornets got the guy they wanted (PJ Hairston) at a nominally lower price point and they got paid by two teams to do it.  You wonder why people do favors for the Heat or the Thunder, it's because they get PAID to.

NBA Draft recap: Utah Jazz

I suspect I'll do a ton of these over the next few days, just wanted to pick out which teams I thought did the best.

Utah has a lovely collection of young talent and I guess the hope is to replicate the amazing growth of the Suns last season.  If every guy on that roster is just a little better than last year, with Exum and Hood giving above average rookie efforts, then they'd be fighting for 8th spot at least, wouldn't you say? But in the NBA you need a star, a horse, a guy that's going to answer all the questions at the press conference, a guy that takes the big shots and attracts the ire of the sports talk crowd.  A team with a lot of nice young players just becomes a feeder for the next free agent class.

Put Lebron on that team and they'd battle with OKC and San Antonio, don't ya think?  Well, Utah could re-sign Gordon Hayward, bring in Dante Exum and Rodney Hood and still have $15m or so for Lebron.  Haven't heard any 'Lebron to SLC' rumors but it is intriguing.  From Lebron's POV the Jazz roster must look pretty good compared to the Heat: Exum is an upgrade over Chalmers, Burke is an upgrade over Cole, Hayward is an upgrade over Wade, Favors is an upgrade over Anderson, Burks and Hood are an upgrade over Allen and Lewis; Kanter is not an upgrade over Bosh but with all the extra productivity, Kanter doesn't seem like a substantial step down.  At the moment Utah's entire roster is trade bait, if they could turn that nice looking nine into a dangerous seven then they got something.  With Lebron I'd keep the supporting cast as it is, let Lebron decide which positions need to evolve, let the play on the court determine which improvements need to be explored.

I know, I know that's not gonna happen.  Lebron won't leave Miami (at all, IMO) for a middle of nowhere team with a bunch of unproven pups.  Utah needs some veteran presence but unless they sign-and-trade Hayward (50/50 possibility, I'd say) for a big name (Jeff Green, maybe?)*, then its only the locker room that needs the leadership, not really the court.  They've got good talent and decent depth at every position, they don't need a player to remake the team concept (oh god, not Evan Turner!), they need a veteran that will guide them, show them, someone the youngsters look up to and root for.  My suggestion: Danny Granger.  I wouldn't give him Lebron money but for 2 years you can afford to give him an opportunity to have one last shot of awesomeness or become a cautionary tale.  Either way, it should have a bracing effect on a young team like Utah.  Its early, free agents have even begun to fly, but I'm already looking forward for the 2015 Jazz to be like the 2014 Suns: exciting, unpredictable with a whole raft of guys improving at the same time.

Still, though....Lebron.

(* A minimal trade idea: sign-and-trade Gordon Hayward to Charlotte straight up for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  Hayward gives the Hornets another scoring option on the wing and MKG gives the Jazz a defensive stopper in an otherwise defense-less lineup.  That's not really the big trade the Jazz are looking for, indeed its just re-shuffling the youth.  But the Jazz would get 2 affordable years of MKG to see if he can truly do the defensive stopper thing and the Hornets would have a decent offensive upgrade that doesn't break the bank.  Ehh, this is one of those deals that's so innocuous it'll never happen, but...just a thought)

World Cup Round of 16

(Still contemplating the NBA draft but for now World Cup!)

Ranking the remaining 16 (5 superior teams, 2 inferior teams, 9 others in the middle):

1. Germany (standard issue German excellence, not unbeatable but not likely to lose)
2. Argentina (for all of Messi's heroics, he hasn't even played well yet!  Argentina can be better)
3. Netherlands (got it all going on, they look better than 2010)
4. Brazil (beyond Neymar I'm not seeing the usual confident star power, but they've done everything they needed to do so far, hard to bet against the hosts)
5. Colombia (playing well, controlling the ball, moving forward, dangerous)

6. France (playing well but they're young, I think they get upset)
7. Nigeria (started slow but played better from game to game, I think they're playing better than France right now)
8. Costa Rica (sneaky, handled all the challenges, Greece is as easy an opponent as they could've hoped for at this point)
9. Uruguay (w/out Suarez) (good but not great, they're lacking on offense from here on)
10. Algeria (nothing to lose, played good D in 1st game, good attack in 2nd game, played well enough in 3rd game, I like Algeria but a W against Germany would be a HUUUUUUUUGE upset)
11. Mexico (good enough, not showy, but look like they can hang with most anyone, Netherlands will be a challenge)
12. Chile (played well in the group, win over Spain must feel great)
13. Belgium (the least impressive 3 win team I've ever seen, for all the hype I'm not convinced of their attack)
14. USA (weird team, doesn't seem like they've played well but they're here and Ghana and Portgual are not)

15. Greece (lucky, shouldn't be here)
16. Switzerland (didn't perform well in the lamest group, not at all impressed with them)

I like Brazil, Colombia, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Nigeria, Germany, Argentina, USA to advance.

NBA Draft

What to write about the draft....?  My head is still swimming by Embiid's broken foot sending shockwaves through the draft.  This draft is so deep that the consensus #1 pick is scaring people away (for the second season in a row...hmmm....).  So much drama at the top, fantastic!  I see trades, trades, trades.

I will reiterate my initial suggestion to the holders of the #1 pick, the Cleveland Cavaliers, to trade down and to keep trading down until the offers stop.  Picks are worth more than they've ever been worth before--the pick itself is potentially more valuable than the player one could draft with that pick--seems the way to maximize value is to trade it rather than use it.   Trade #1 to Milwaukee for #2+, trade #2 to the Sixers for #3+, trade #3 to the Magic for #4+, trade #4 to Utah for #5+ and so on and so on.  Also worth mentioning that just about everybody on the Cavs roster is available, including sign-and-trade deals with Deng and Hawes.  The Cavs have so many options that undoubtedly they'll blink, choose Jabari Parker and call themselves geniuses for not 'over-thinking' the draft.  Oh well.  The draft is deep enough that the Cavs could trade down and still get solid additions to their roster.  They could completely re-design their roster with just one pick.  This is the equivalent of one of those internet stories about trading a toothpick for a condo.

Also the suggestion I'm making applies to each pick, though not each team is in the same situation as the Cavs.  Example, the Bucks supposedly really want Jabari Parker and for a while it looked like #1 would be Embiid to the Cavs and the Bucks would get their guy with their pick.  But now that the Cavs are off Embiid, if they grab Parker then the #2 pick isn't as attractive to the Bucks as it was because they didn't have Wiggins ranked as high.  The Sixers at #3 want Wiggins, why couldn't the Bucks leverage the Sixers for #3+?  And again: if Wiggins is gone at #3 then the Sixers could trade down for someone else.  And again: if the Magic can't grab Exum, maybe they can trade down.  The dropping of Embiid is a ripple through the entire market in a way that Noel Nerlens last year was night: the trade for Nerlens at #6 also netted the Sixers the #10 pick this year. The #6 pick in this draft could bring a king's ransom.

In my mind this draft is giant trade wheel but assuming no trades are made, I guess it'll go like this: Cavs take Parker, Bucks take Wiggins, Sixers take Embiid, Magic take Exum, Jazz take Gordon, Celtics take Vonleh, Lakers take Randle, Kings take Payton, Hornets take Smart, Sixers take Saric, Nuggets take Lavine, Magic take Hood, T-Wolves take McDermot, Suns take Young.

I love Cleanthony Early, I saw some early mock drafts that had him falling to the Spurs at #30--god help us if the Spurs get a talent that good that late in the draft!  I'm also intrigued by TJ Warren and Tyler Ennis, they seem pretty low for their talent level.  Also Jarnell Stokes, James McAdoo and PJ Hairston in the second round?  And I was impressed with Johnny O'Bryant at LSU, another one that could fall late to the Spurs.

This could be a monumental draft, one of those drafts that produces 20-25 guys that are legit players in the league and I don't mean Hall of Famers or even All-Stars, but there could be a lot of dudes that have long careers playing professional basketball.  It is important to remember that most of the guys that will get drafted Thursday night will not be getting paid to play basketball in 3 years.  But this could replenish the talent pool in a way unfathomable.

And I can't imagine a trade-free draft night.  Impossible.  Too much volatility introduced by Embiid's bad foot.

World Cup After One Week (or so)

Damn, I love the World Cup!  I love just sitting on ass and watching soccer all day every day for a month.  I'm increasingly convinced even Americans can get into this every 48th month.  The other 47 months, soccer will go back to being utterly irrelevant on the American sports scene and I reckon that's normal.  Attendance might spike at MLS games for the rest of the year but it'll revert to normal next year.  I don't expect Americans to follow European soccer (though its every bit as entertaining as the American sports) or the South American Cups or the other random competitions that come along.  Soccer is not--and will not be--a regular big time American sport.  Our best athletes don't play soccer, our domestic league is pretty much guaranteed to never be as competitive as the Euro leagues, the college game in America is well-equipped but produces very little compelling action, the stats in soccer don't mean squat so there's no nerd culture or talk radio memes waiting to happen, and the advertising isn't the same (though I reckon American companies are used to marketing through soccer everywhere else in the world).  And in USA soccer competes with a bevy of sports options most of the rest of the world has not adopted as completely as soccer.  We've got the best baseball, hockey, basketball, motor sports, tennis and golf and we've got 'football' which no one else plays (nor should they, its a quintessentially American game and frankly I don't want to watch everyone else do it); but when it comes to soccer the big money culture is already at play out there in the world and American money will always be hard-pressed to compete.  But once every 48 months even Americans can rouse from their Cheeto-ed slumber and join the planet.

Best game: Netherlands 5-1 Spain.  Wow, hadn't seen Spain get pummeled like that in a while.  Brazil handled them convincingly a coupla years back in the Confederations Cup but this was something totally new.  And even then it was just the second half.  The Dutch just controlled every second of the ball for 45 minutes, Spain never threatened, never held the ball, couldn't make stops on defense, couldn't turn the ball forward, couldn't do nothing, man.  Wow.  Just wow.  A shellacking like this is always confusing: Are the Dutch really that good?  Spain can't be that bad, can they?  Was this just a fluke game or do the Dutch have some magic going?

Lamest game: Iran 0-0 Nigeria.  Easy call.  Man, no action, no attempt at action, not even any interesting mistakes!  No controversy, no goals, no worthwhile opportunities, no cool passes or eye-opening athletic plays.  Nope.  Nothing.  Forget Americans--this is the kind of game that people who love soccer hate to sit through.

I don't watch nearly enough soccer these days so I don't know any of the players, besides a handful of the big stars.  And I haven't followed anyone but USA in the qualifiers and even then I don't obsess over the tables because I fully expect USA to finish in the top 3 of our group always (we should always be #1 but top 3 qualify and we should always at least make that).  So I'm pretty blind on these teams, just going by gut feelings.  Rank them, right here.

Germany (class; frankly they didn't even look they were trying hard while blowing out Portugal)

Netherlands (am I overrating the whooping they just put on Spain?  Maybe, but the Dutch did look pretty great; they moved the ball well and were a hammer on defense; they looked really good)

Argentina (thought Messi didn't play well, but all he needs is an inch of daylight to hit a game winner; I'm guessing he's just warming up and that Bosnia is actually pretty good)

Italy (played solid against England; good victory, not a great one but they did what they needed to do against a world class opponent)

Brazil (My first instinct is to say I dunno about these guys: that back line looks born to beat, don't it?  This team doesn't pass very well it seems like, the touches are still crisp but they're not playing with each other as well as expected; being the home team is probably more curse than blessing these days but I fully expect Brazil to be there at the end)

Mexico (I thought they played Cameroon just right and handled themselves well against Brazil this afternoon; was not surprised by today's outcome: Mexico is the rare squad that doesn't fall prey to Brazil's gimmicks; granted the record is not good against Brazil, but they compete and I thought they'd get a draw today, though I expected more thrills; anyway, Mexico looks good to me, they hold the ball well, they play well together, solid defense, they're susceptible to big sturdy forwards but I think Mexico will score some goals this year)

Spain (I can't let one bad game scuttle my observations: Spain is still the best in the world and I reckon they can hang with anyone they play; they picked a bad time for a bad game but when is the good time for that?  Spain is gonna win games, I am convinced)

Colombia (I liked what I saw from Colombia but the 3-0 line against Greece was deceiving, I thought the match was a lot closer than that; Colombia finished their opportunities, Greece didn't, but otherwise I thought it was a fairly even contest; Colombia did what needed to be done and that's a good quality to have)

France (I thought their match with Honduras was sloppy: Honduras was truly terrible and the ref was wonky, made weird calls that kept favoring France (I thought); not sure France will have the protection of either of those things going forward; I suspect they've played their crappiest opponent and gotten their wonderful-est officiating; wasn't blown away by France and I suspect they might be a mirage)

Ivory Coast (Like France, I was more unimpressed by their opponent (Japan) than I was impressed by Ivory Coast; Japan got an early goal so I couldn't tell if they just had no offense at all or just didn't want to play it; couldn't tell if Ivory Coast's dominance of possession was their own skill or Japan's premature lack of interest; anyway, I was impressed by their ball control, each player had superior touch and their interplay reminded me of what Nigeria used to play like; plus they got a legit world class star (Drogba) rolling in off the bench; I think I like Ivory Coast to move on)

Chile (lump Chile in with France and Ivory Coast; Chile's first opponent (Australia) is continually uninspiring to me and the fact that Chile thumped 'em 3-1 doesn't shock me at all; so how good is Chile?  No idea, I'm putting them here because I don't know where else to put them)

Costa Rica (People made a big deal Costa Rica's 3-1 beatdown of Uruguay but they were just the better team, I thought; Uruguay struck me as not that good while Costa Rica impressed me with their opportunism and play making capabilities; I think Costa Rica is pretty good, could surprise someone taking them lightly)

Bosnia-Herzegovina (the most impressive loser so far; yeah I know I have Spain ranked higher but I'm still giving them the respect of the last 6 years, Bosnia is new to me; I liked them, take away a fluky own-goal and Bosnia went toe-to-toe with the team I predicted to win the Cup; they stifled Messi consistently in the mid-field, attacked confidently up the wings, had some real touch up front, I think they've got a good chance to sting some people)

USA (One of the least impressive victories of the tourney so far; heads-up quick goal, lucky as shit late goal, floundering offense, almost good enough defense, I dunno, I did not like what I saw; Dempsey's early brilliance was a shot in the arm but the next 80 minutes of lackluster offense was a bit of a downer; Portugal is hard to figure: either USA kills them or gets eaten alive by the wounded Portuguese.

Belgium (Next least impressive victory; for 60 minutes they could not budge against Algeria's defense, then a quick cross in the box and a breakaway later, they've stolen back the game from Algeria; I dunno man, they're hard to figure, they came in with some dark horse hype and perhaps Algeria's game plan just stymied them...or perhaps Belgium just wasn't that good; I was impressed with Algeria's D, they had a plan and they stuck to it, but Algeria attempted almost no offense and still should've won this game; so how good is Belgium?  Not sure)

England
Russia
South Korea
Croatia
Switzerland
Ghana
Cameroon
Greece
Portugal

Iran (Iran did what they had to do to secure a draw; they look like they just have a knack for draws; maybe 3 points will get them through but they'll probably need to win and how is that gonna happen?)

Nigeria (they looked awful; in the 90s my favorite team to watch was Nigeria, so much on-ball skill, a team of badasses, ripped shots from all over the place, they were fun; but this team was hesitant to do anything against Iran, not exactly the most formidable D out there; they did not look good, they were not dangerous around the goal, they weren't playmaking on defense, they didn't look into it and they didn't look good)

Uruguay (this just doesn't look like a classic Uruguay squad, they were soundly beaten I thought by Costa Rica, who is perhaps just better than we thought; but it didn't look to me like Uruguay ever had any plan to win the game and if they can't figure out Costa Rica, I'm not seeing them go too much further)

Algeria (honestly Algeria is a kooky 5-minute flurry from having 3 points; but that was their best chance at a win, I don't think their chances get any better, I really liked their D, I think they're gonna frustrate some people, but they've got no attack to speak of; they're not that bad but I don't see them having any success moving forward so I've got to drop them pretty low)

Australia (not that bad really, I just don't like watching them; they remind me of USA circa 1998 but with lesser athletes, not a good combination; I just don't see how these guys score goals or fight off a world class attack for 90 minutes)

Ecuador (I was almost willing to be impressed with Ecuador for dueling Switzerland to a draw, then they blew it in ignominious fashion, now I'm less impressed than ever; they don't score, they fall asleep on D, they don't have the best athletes, I don't see them beating anybody)

Japan (yeah, these guys just kinda suck; they dominated Ivory Coast for about 5 minutes, managed to get a goal out of it then did nothing for the rest of the game; Ivory Coast took a shot every time they touched the ball, but weren't adept at hitting the target except for their own 5 minutes flurry when they netted two quick goals and did what they should've done earlier; Japan plays with courage and smarts, but they're not very good)

Honduras (I didn't think the refs did them any favors against France, every close one seemed to go against Honduras, but I also thought they fouled a lot, were poor at maintaining possession or defensive shape and don't have the athletes to hang; worst team I saw in the first week)

NBA Finals (cont)

I had the Spurs in 5, game 5 is tonight, thought I'd take one last chance to screw this up before I get it right.  The basic recap so far: Game 1 was all about Lebron's cramps, Game 2 was all about Lebron's overwhelming efficiency, Game 3 was about the Spurs hitting every shot of the night, Game 4 was about the Heat not rising to the occasion.  Game 5 will be about...?

The Heat will show up tonight, I'm certain of that.  Lebron and Bosh need to be perfect and the rest of the gang needs to show up, be efficient and figure out how to stop Kawhi Leonard.  Then they need to do it again back in Miami and then do it one more time in San Antonio.  Can this Heat come back from 3-1?  No, I'm not seeing it.  Frankly Dwyane Wade takes up too much space, he still wants star treatment when he's really only a star about every fifth game and the rest of the supporting cast just doesn't have it in them to pick up the slack.  Worth recalling again that the Heat have not had to work all year--all year they cruised!  But now their backs are against the wall and its too late to think they'll figure it out.

I'll take the Spurs to finish it off tonight.  And if the Heat do pull it out, I'm inclined to take the Spurs back in Miami.

2014 World Cup predictions

Every four years I drop everything and watch soccer for a month.  I love soccer all year round but I don't have cable or an immediate group of like-minded friends to keep me updated, so I stick to American sports in general.  But even Americans can be lured into the World Cup (for one month out of forty-eight) so the World Cup should be readily available.  And, of course, I have to see if I can predict the future...that's kinda how I spend my days.  That said I can't help making a left-field pick.  

Argentina over Brazil in the Final

Germany over Spain for 3rd

Spain has dominated everyone for the last 6 years but a lethargy sets in with all great teams.  The other squads of the world have moved on, rotated in new players, new blood, whereas Spain is still milking that one generation--one of the greatest in soccer history--but in soccer the teams have to evolve forward.  The teams that come back the same year after year eventually falter.  When it comes to Spain vs. the Field, I'm taking the Field.  

Just to fill out the Sweet 16: Brazil, Netherlands, Colombia, Uruguay, Spain, Croatia, Italy, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, France, Germany, Algeria, Argentina, Switzerland, USA, Russia.  

Yes, I had USA getting out the group and even winning a match before getting clowned by Argentina in the final eight.  A quarterfinal for the Americans would be a triumph and apparently that's what I think is gonna happen.  Am I just being a homer?  Well, more that I don't know the rest of the soccer world that well these days while I've watched the USA's last 3 games and been impressed with them.  The D still seems shaky but we've got a terrific goalie; the O is likely to bog down but pushing Altidore forward, dropping Dempsey back with Beasley attacking up the wing makes sense to me, feels like that could work.  Cutting Landon Donovan was a surprise but I don't think it makes or breaks this team; Donovan is still (to my mind) the best position player US Soccer has ever produced and I think he can still contribute to this squad but I guess Coach Klinsmann thinks he can do better without him (and I don't think I disagree).  

Playoff Prediction: Spurs in 5

6.5.14 -- Game 1 tips off in a coupla hours, gotta get this in.

The Spurs have won 8 straight at home since losing Game 2 to the Mavs in the 1st round.  The Mavs beat the Spurs 3 times, something the Blazers and Thunder were unable to do (and I'm guessing the Heat won't either).  But that is a unique grudge match unparalleled with the other opponents (even Lebron).  At this time last year I thought the Spurs were gonna beat the Heat mostly because Tony Parker was playing out of his mind.  I thought Parker was primed to remind everybody that he was winning rings in this league before Lebron and has long been a more bankable winner than most of the big stars of today (Carmelo, Durant, Aldridge, Howard, Harden, Blake & Paul, Steph Curry and co. and on and on).  He won Game 1 in Miami by himself but then tweaked his ankle in Game 3 (3?) and wasn't the same for the rest of the Series. Well, it didn't work out but I'm not ready to say I was wrong.  I've thought it over and I agree with myself...with this caveat: if Parker stays healthy I think the Spurs are actually waaaay better than the Heat.  If Parker is hobbled then its a much closer contest and Lebron alone would be tough to bet against.  A healthy Parker keeps the Spur offense moving and when it moves, they win.  The Spurs generally only lose when they don't play well (except against Dirk for some reason), the Spurs rarely lost this year when they played their best basketball.  With a healthy Tony Parker I fully expect the Spurs to play their best every time they take the floor.

The Heat are a mysterious team to me: so far this year, they have yet to play hard.  Lebron had an excellent year for a basketball player, but for a basketball player named 'Lebron' it was only an okay season.  Of the rest of the team only Chris Bosh made a noticeable jump from last year.  The rest of the supporting cast is still okay, still reliable (if overpaid), can still be very useful in service to a horse like Lebron.  But the team itself cruise controlled right to the #2 seed in the east, breezed through the first opponent like tackling dummies, went through the second playoff opponent like traffic cones and were way better than their third playoff opponent in 4.5 of the 6 games.  Are the Heat rested and ready?  Or does the ease with which they vanquished the pitiful East mean they can fall victim to the slightest challenge?  I think Lebron alone is quite capable of winning a championship and Lebron with Bosh is more than enough.  3 pointers, defense and no turnovers is all those 2 guys need from a supporting cast to go deep in the playoffs. But the Spurs, man....the m'f'n Spurs.  The Spurs are Clubber Lang in this story.  The Spurs can beat the Spurs and Lebron can be there to scoop up a title--it happened last year, it can happen again.  But I don't think the Heat can beat the Spurs.

(Random observation about Erik Spoelstra: I like him. The knee-jerk reaction is to slag him off as lucky, as in the right place at the right time.  He drives a nice car because daddy gave him a nice car, not because he earned it.  But, hey, man, he hasn't wrapped that nice car around any trees in the last 4 years.  4 straight conference titles is getting it done whatever your birthright.  But more than just thumbing my nose at the naysayers, I like him.  I like his style, I like his rotations, I like his understanding of metrics but with deeper understanding of his best players, the guy's got for-real x's and o's out there, he's more than just an ego-masseur, he's not some mealy Medvedev to Pat Riley's Putin, he's bonafide, he's beyond reproach....for now)

Yeah, I think I'm gonna do it: I'm going Spurs in 5.  I think the Spurs win the first two games in San Antonio, the Heat win game 3 in Miami and then it all comes down to game 4; if the Heat win, this series goes at least 6 games, if the Spurs win then I think they take game 5 at home.  I think the Spurs are more likely to win on the road than the Heat are.  There it is.  My initial thought was Spurs in 7 (i'd love to see 7 games of this matchup) and I'm very sympathetic to Heat in 6 (if they win Games 1 or 2 in San Antonio then that's the scenario).  As Parker goes, the Spurs go.  With Parker healthy the ball keeps moving and when the ball keeps moving the Spurs score with great efficiency.  They score more than their opponent.  Even when that opponent is Lebron James and the two-time defending champs.