2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 

If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 

But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Northwest Division)

Nuggets
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.

Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).

In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).

Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).


Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.

Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.

In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).

Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.


Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.

Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).

In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.

Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.


Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?

Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.

In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)

Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.


Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.

Re-signed: (none)

In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?

Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.

2019-20 Oklahoma City Thunder

2018-19: 49-33 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 21

Signed for next season ($146.8m): Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder, Andre Roberson, Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Hamidou Diallo
This squad is pretty well ready to go--expensive as hell, but complete. The move to make is trade Steven Adams and his ginormous paycheck, but getting back something that matches their needs is not going to be easy, so I figure they'll just run this team back next season.


This summer's free agents: Raymond Felton, Nerlens Noel (player option), Markieff Morris, Jawun Evans
They don't really need Felton or Morris, so I don't see any reason to bring them back.
Nerlens has a player option and a smaller paycheck than he can probably get elsewhere (Lakers, Knicks immediately come to mind), so I bet he's gone.
The Thunder will need to fill out their roster but they'll be looking for extremely low cost filler at the back end of that bench, which might include Evans but I suspect he can make more money elsewhere (Clippers, Lakers, Hornets, Grizzlies).


In this draft I think they should be looking for defense considering that Roberson, Patterson and Noel will likely be gone within the year. I don't know these recruits well enough but does that suggest Eric Paschall (Villanova) or Nicolas Claxton (Georgia) or Ty Jerome (Virginia)? I dunno but those seem like three guys in that range.


Next year's lineup:
PG Westbrook, SG Roberson, SF George, PF Noel, C Adams with Shroder, Ferguson, Diallo, Nader, Grant, and Patterson off the bench.

All depends on how badly this team wants to get cheaper for next year. The rest of the roster-fillers will be low-cost players, but if they move Adams that will bring significant changes to the roster (not saying they won't/can't trade Adams but I didn't see any deals out there right now that look particularly appealing).

NBA Western Conference Finals

Game Seven, the two greatest words in all of sports. I had the Thunder in six, which should've worked out but Durant and Westbrook played wild down the stretch, while the Warriors regained their shooting touch. Feels like the Warriors are back, they've got the momentum and the Thunder are backpedaling. But I'm sticking with the Thunder! Don't get me wrong: if Klay and Steph break the record for 3's in a playoff game again, the Thunder don't have much of a shot. But I'm betting the Warriors stumble tonight and the Thunder reclaim the momentum.

In Game Six, I kept waiting for Waiters or Foye or Morrow to make a play or two, I think that's all it would've taken to secure the victory. Instead, Westbrook became turnover prone and Durant kept forcing shots, leaving their teammates to stand around and watch. This is why they lost so many games in the 4th quarter this season. (Their 4th quarter struggles are basic: everyone else's defense tightens up and the Thunder's does not, a step back on both ends of the court) Easy to blame the big stars for the loss in Game Six but I'm gonna go ahead and blame Coach Donovan instead. He failed to rotate Morrow in to get him touches throughout the game, he didn't give Foye enough minutes and he turned his back on Kanter, who was actually effective shooting the ball. It was incumbent on Donovan to remind his big stars to remember the contributions of their teammates and the way to do that was to be more effective in his subs. That becomes less of an issue in Game Seven, when it probably will come down to Durant and/or Westbrook being the hero.

As for the Warriors, its easy to think they're back, that they've shaken off the rust and returned to form. But, except for Klay (who has been pretty magnificent all through the post-season) and Iguodala (whose defense has been superb), I'm not really seeing it. Steph was still tentative to get shots at the basket, Draymond is still being goofy (and one technical foul away from missing a game), Barnes has actually been pretty bad on offense (not bad on D), Livingston and Speights (outside of one good shooting night) haven't given much at all. And you're telling me that the key is Bogut? The Warriors beat people all year long because they can shoot the lights out and pile on plenty of points at a moment's notice. That can still happen, to be sure, but unless it happens, I'm not sure they're the better team.

I think OKC gets over their butterflies and puts the pressure back on Golden State. Unless Klay and Steph are perfect, I think the Warrior swagger might get them into trouble. Westbrook is relentless, he just needs to find his teammates again and Durant just needs a solid shooting night to put them over the top. Don't be surprised if Coach Kerr tightens up and Coach Donovan makes all the right moves. Thunder in 7.