(2) Penn State 38-39 (6) Ohio State
I watched this game and I gotta say Penn State was the better team, but they did that thing teams do sometimes when they get a good lead late: they just stopped playing offense. They stopped getting first downs, getting field position and when emergency time came, they had no momentum on the offensive side at all. The Buckeyes deserve the credit for coming back and pulling it out but they left me with the feeling that they aren't really as good as the Nittany Lions. The Buckeyes control their fate from here on out and the Nittany Lions do not.
(4) TCU 7-14 (25) Iowa State
What is it about Iowa State this year? They stung the Sooners, almost stung the Nittany Lions, and kept the Horned Frog attack off-balance all day (but dropped home games to Texas and Iowa, neither of whom are particularly noteworthy this season). Big ol' logjam at the top of the Big 12 standings, not sure how it works out for any of these teams.
(14) North Carolina State 14-35 (9) Notre Dame
I've watched NC State a few times this year, been impressed with their D line and the sturdiness of their offense. The first half of this game was pretty even but the Irish whipped them soundly in the second half. Another really good win for Notre Dame, a bad beat for the Wolfpack.
(11) Oklahoma State 50-39 (22) West Virginia
Fun game. I stopped watching in the 4th quarter and they each scored a ton more points after I left. West Virginia's QB kept throwing interceptions that somehow always felt like the receiver's fault, weird. Ok State's offense was just unstoppable in this game. Good W on the road for the Cowboys, the Mountaineers are a nice team but they're not gonna make a dent in the Big 12 this year.
Top 25
Handled their business
(3) Georgia, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Ohio St., (7) Clemson, (8) Miami, (9) Notre Dame, (10) Oklahoma, (11) Oklahoma St., (12) Washington, (13) Virginia Tech, (18) Central Florida, (21) Southern Cal, (24) Memphis, (25) Iowa St.
Won but did not impress
(20) Stanford. On the road (in the middle of nowhere) is never easy but come on, man, Oregon State is 1-6 with an anemic offense, couldn't the Cardinal have mustered up a little more than an end-of-game squeaker?
Not so good
(2) Penn State. Should've won.
(4) TCU. The next to fall prey to Iowa State.
(14) North Carolina State. Bad beat.
(15) Washington State. PAC 12 is a weirdo conference.
(16) Michigan State. They still have Penn State and Ohio State, doesn't get easier from here.
(17) South Florida. This year's kookiest Cinderella possibility finally bows out of the race.
(22) West Virginia. Bad beat.
Power Rankings
Okay, I've paid enough attention to football this year to feel like I'm already tired of the rankings, gonna do my own.
(1) Alabama
Yup, still unbeatable (til someone beats them).
(2) Georgia
The Bulldogs are perennially overrated but not this year. This team is legit good, I expect them to go undefeated down the stretch and get their shot against the Tide in the SEC Final (wouldn't be surprised if they won), even a playoff rematch isn't out of the question.
(3) Clemson
Still don't know how they lost to Syracuse, an inexcusable stumble from the best non-Alabama team out there. Not sure if the ACC finishes strong enough to earn Clemson a shot at the final four but I have no doubt that Clemson has the talent to be there.
(4) Ohio State
Thought they should've fared better against Oklahoma but I thought they did well to sneak past Penn State. Unless they stumble over the Spartans (it has happened before), then the Buckeyes will face (and should trounce) Wisconsin for their spot in the final four.
(5) Notre Dame
I thought they were the better team in their loss to Georgia to start the season and I was impressed at the way they took apart Southern Cal and NC State in successive weeks, they're playing good ball right now. I think they'll add W's at Miami and at Stanford before year's end.
(6) Penn State
They should've beaten the Buckeyes, letting that one slip away will likely doom their season. Oh well, they're really good, too bad they're praying for a Michigan State miracle to get back into the Championship discussion.
(7) Oklahoma or Oklahoma St
The winner of next Saturday's contest goes here, the loser gets jettisoned. Yeah, that sounds about right.
(8) TCU
Sneaking up behind the Oklahoma squads...yeah, that sounds about right.
(9) Virginia Tech
I've watched them a coupla times this year, generally been impressed. I think they'll beat Miami next week and blast through the rest of the ACC schedule. Only a loss to Clemson so far, can't downgrade them for that.
(10) Washington
Ehhh, I haven't seen them do much yet but in a conference that cannibalizes itself the way the PAC does, they've still got the best shot to come out. In a playoff they may well get destroyed, maybe we'll find out.
(11) Wisconsin
Yeah, they're undefeated but they haven't played anyone worth mentioning nor will they. They're riding a quirk in the schedule all the way to a shot against the Buckeyes.
Next week's notable games
(7) Penn State @ (24) Michigan State
(6) Clemson @ (20) North Carolina State
(18) Stanford @ (25) Washington State
(8) Oklahoma @ (11) Oklahoma State
(19) LSU @ (1) Alabama
(13) Virginia Tech @ (9) Miami
(23) Arizona @ (17) Southern Cal
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
2017-18 NBA Awards Watch (Week 1)
ROY
59 players debuted in the first week of the season (higher than last year if I'm not mistaken). I've listed them by most Minutes Played.
Ben Simmons (Sixers), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Josh Jackson (Suns), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Lonzo Ball (Lakers), Mike James (Suns), Dillon Brooks (Grizzlies), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), John Collins (Hawks), Markelle Fultz (Sixers), Justin Jackson (Kings), Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), Dwayne Bacon (Hornets), Jonathon Isaac (Magic), Dennis Smith (Mavs), Malik Monk (Hornets), Luke Kennard (Pistons), OG Anunoby (Raptors), TJ Leaf (Pacers), Gian Clavell (Mavs), Milos Teodosic (Clippers), Jordan Bell (Warriors), Jarrett Allen (Nets), Caleb Swanigan (Blazers), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings), Terrance Ferguson (Thunder), Semi Ojeleye (Celtics), Alex Caruso (Lakers), Maxi Kleber (Mavs), Abdel Nader (Celtics), Josh Hart (Lakers), Frank Mason (Kings), Daniel Thies (Celtics), Jabari Bird (Celtics), Josh Magette (Hawks), Alec Peters (Suns), Cedi Osman (Cavs), Sindarius Thornwell (Clippers), Tyler Dorsey (Hawks), Frank Ntilikina (Knicks), Brandon Paul (Spurs), Zach Collins (Blazers), Zhou Qi (Rockets), Ante Zizic (Cavs), Bam Adebayo (Heat), Sterling Brown (Bucks), Ryan Arcidiacono (Bulls), Khem Birch (Magic), Wesley Iwundu (Magic), Damyean Dotson (Knicks), Dakari Johnson (Thunder), Guerschon Yabusele (Celtics), Ike Anigbogu (Pacers), Alfonzo McKinnie (Raptors), Royce O'Neale (Jazz), DJ Wilson (Bucks), Derrick White (Spurs)
So far Simmons (Sixers) leads all rookies in Rebounds, Assists and Free Throw Attempts. If he finishes the year first in all three categories, how do you vote for anyone else for ROY? Also, he's already looking pretty un-guardable.
MVP
Obviously its too early for this talk (although Lebron already looks awesome, no?). But with the Celtics losing Hayward, if the Bucks can sneak past the Wizards into a top 4 spot in the East, then it will be because of Giannas Atentekounpo (Bucks), who will have to get serious consideration for MVP. So far he's their best player on both ends of the court, is making crazy highlight plays all over the place and will (I think) continue to grow as everyone's favorite player to watch. He's legit.
DPOY
It's early but did you notice that Kevin Durant (Warriors) is leading the league in blocked shots? Demarcus Cousins (Pelicans) and Anthony Davis (Pelicans) are currently #2 and #3 in defensive rebounds; throw in that Jrue Holiday (Pelicans) is top 5 in steals and the Pelicans have the makings of a tough defensive squad.
6th Man
Again, it's early but PJ Tucker (Rockets) has jumped out to the early lead here, I'd say. And I expect him to keep playing important minutes off the bench, keep an eye on Tucker. I'm still in on Marcus Smart (Celtics), though Terry Rozier (Celtics) is taking his time/glory for now. Jonathon Simmons (Magic) has yet to take off but he still seems like a good candidate. De'Aaron Fox (Kings) and Allen Crabbe (Nets) are playing big minutes off the bench but I assume they'll both be regularly starters soon enough.
Most Improved
Dang, have you watched Andrew Wiggins (Wolves)? He's looking like Jimmy Butler 2.0 so far: hitting big shots, driving with ease, playing smothering D. If Wiggins keeps this up (and if Towns continues to look utterly clueless on the defensive end), it's looking like Wiggins could get himself some MVP and all-Defense consideration that would almost certainly earn him Most Improved (is that a thing, though?).
59 players debuted in the first week of the season (higher than last year if I'm not mistaken). I've listed them by most Minutes Played.
Ben Simmons (Sixers), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Josh Jackson (Suns), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Lonzo Ball (Lakers), Mike James (Suns), Dillon Brooks (Grizzlies), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), John Collins (Hawks), Markelle Fultz (Sixers), Justin Jackson (Kings), Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), Dwayne Bacon (Hornets), Jonathon Isaac (Magic), Dennis Smith (Mavs), Malik Monk (Hornets), Luke Kennard (Pistons), OG Anunoby (Raptors), TJ Leaf (Pacers), Gian Clavell (Mavs), Milos Teodosic (Clippers), Jordan Bell (Warriors), Jarrett Allen (Nets), Caleb Swanigan (Blazers), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings), Terrance Ferguson (Thunder), Semi Ojeleye (Celtics), Alex Caruso (Lakers), Maxi Kleber (Mavs), Abdel Nader (Celtics), Josh Hart (Lakers), Frank Mason (Kings), Daniel Thies (Celtics), Jabari Bird (Celtics), Josh Magette (Hawks), Alec Peters (Suns), Cedi Osman (Cavs), Sindarius Thornwell (Clippers), Tyler Dorsey (Hawks), Frank Ntilikina (Knicks), Brandon Paul (Spurs), Zach Collins (Blazers), Zhou Qi (Rockets), Ante Zizic (Cavs), Bam Adebayo (Heat), Sterling Brown (Bucks), Ryan Arcidiacono (Bulls), Khem Birch (Magic), Wesley Iwundu (Magic), Damyean Dotson (Knicks), Dakari Johnson (Thunder), Guerschon Yabusele (Celtics), Ike Anigbogu (Pacers), Alfonzo McKinnie (Raptors), Royce O'Neale (Jazz), DJ Wilson (Bucks), Derrick White (Spurs)
So far Simmons (Sixers) leads all rookies in Rebounds, Assists and Free Throw Attempts. If he finishes the year first in all three categories, how do you vote for anyone else for ROY? Also, he's already looking pretty un-guardable.
MVP
Obviously its too early for this talk (although Lebron already looks awesome, no?). But with the Celtics losing Hayward, if the Bucks can sneak past the Wizards into a top 4 spot in the East, then it will be because of Giannas Atentekounpo (Bucks), who will have to get serious consideration for MVP. So far he's their best player on both ends of the court, is making crazy highlight plays all over the place and will (I think) continue to grow as everyone's favorite player to watch. He's legit.
DPOY
It's early but did you notice that Kevin Durant (Warriors) is leading the league in blocked shots? Demarcus Cousins (Pelicans) and Anthony Davis (Pelicans) are currently #2 and #3 in defensive rebounds; throw in that Jrue Holiday (Pelicans) is top 5 in steals and the Pelicans have the makings of a tough defensive squad.
6th Man
Again, it's early but PJ Tucker (Rockets) has jumped out to the early lead here, I'd say. And I expect him to keep playing important minutes off the bench, keep an eye on Tucker. I'm still in on Marcus Smart (Celtics), though Terry Rozier (Celtics) is taking his time/glory for now. Jonathon Simmons (Magic) has yet to take off but he still seems like a good candidate. De'Aaron Fox (Kings) and Allen Crabbe (Nets) are playing big minutes off the bench but I assume they'll both be regularly starters soon enough.
Most Improved
Dang, have you watched Andrew Wiggins (Wolves)? He's looking like Jimmy Butler 2.0 so far: hitting big shots, driving with ease, playing smothering D. If Wiggins keeps this up (and if Towns continues to look utterly clueless on the defensive end), it's looking like Wiggins could get himself some MVP and all-Defense consideration that would almost certainly earn him Most Improved (is that a thing, though?).
2017-18 NBA (Week 1 Bric-a-brac)
Injuries
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Exum's season seems to be done after he elected to have surgery on the shoulder he injured during a pre-season game. Man, his rookie contract is just about up and we've barely seen the guy. Oh well, hopefully next year he'll be able to stay on the court.
Gordon Hayward (Celtics)
Hayward broke his ankle and leg about 5 minutes into his Celtics debut and is out for the season. (Dang, that was ugly!) Bet the Celtics would like to have Avery Bradley and even Demetrius Jackson back now. The Celtics got a lot of untested rookies coming off that bench, they're gonna get tested sooner rather than later.
Jeremy Lin (Nets)
Ruptured his patella tendon, won't be back this year. He was definitely going to play minutes for the Nets, a big loss for the team (though not necessarily in terms of wins and losses).
Harry Giles (Kings)
Taking a page out of the Sixers playback, the Kings announced that Giles will rehab his knee for the entire year. So we'll see Giles as a rookie next year.
Luol Deng (Lakers)
Pectoral muscle surgery will keep Deng unavailable indefinitely. Not sure if he returns this season or not.
Fired
Earl Watson (Suns)
Watson was fired 3 games into the season. Yeah, I get that the Suns have looked pretty awful in the first 3 games but I can't say I was surprised by their awfulness--indeed, who was? Didn't we all know that the Suns were going to be pretty horrible this year? Apparently morale is low in Phoenix and Watson was the fall guy. To be honest: this is how Watson got the job 3 years ago and the guy that replaces Watson has got to know that this is how he'll go out eventually too. I have no idea if Watson was the guy for this job or who is, but I don't see any more reason to fire him now than to have fired him 3 months ago or 3 months from now. Suns management hasn't made much sense to me in years, this is just par for the course really. Suns name Jay Triano the interim head coach.
Signings
Lamarcus Aldridge (Spurs) signed 3yr/$50m extension (through 2020)
This was a bit of a shock considering the rumblings all summer long about the Spurs looking to trade Aldridge. But Lamarcus is still a good scorer, he's still likely to be of comparable value to anyone else they could've signed in that slot and signing him doesn't necessarily make him less trade-able. (And I believe the 3rd year is non-guaranteed)
Richard Jefferson (Nuggets) signed 1yr/$2.3m
I kinda thought Jefferson would end up with either the Warriors or Spurs but the Nuggets are young team that could use any/all veteran presence that they can get. Jefferson is well-liked well-respected guy in the league, this is probably an excellent fit (though they had to cut Jameer Nelson to make room).
Jameer Nelson (Pelicans) signed 1yr/undisclosed
Pelicans need all the perimeter ball handlers they can get and I think Jameer is a good fit for their two big guys.
Suspended
Bobby Portis (Bulls) for 8 games
Punching a teammate during practice (sucker punch by some accounts) and shattering bones in his face is a no-no in the modern NBA. Bill Romanowski had to go on 60 Minutes and put on a Forrest Gump routine to get over the stigma of fracturing the orbital bone (and career) of a Raider teammate, not sure what kind of penance Portis will have to perform.
Eric Bledsoe (Suns)
Bledsoe had a sit-down with GM McDonough and interim coach Triano and apparently things did not go well. Bledsoe has been indefinitely suspended from the team and is likely to be traded any day now (Nuggets, Bucks have already been mentioned).
Trades
Hawks get Richard Jefferson, Kay Felder, 2019 2nd rd pick, 2020 2nd rd pick (top 55 protected), $3m cash; Cavs get the rights to Sergey Gladyr and Dimirtios Agravanis
This is just a salary dump for the Cavs and a free $3m clerical exercise for the Hawks. Both Jefferson and Felder were waived by the Hawks and as far as those 2nd round picks go the first is not likely to be any good and the second is not to likely to actually exist. So they gave up the rights to two foreign players that don't have much of a shot at playing in the NBA for $3m, while the Cavs emptied their salary cap of two players. (Felder was claimed by the Bulls--because they needed another PG!)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Exum's season seems to be done after he elected to have surgery on the shoulder he injured during a pre-season game. Man, his rookie contract is just about up and we've barely seen the guy. Oh well, hopefully next year he'll be able to stay on the court.
Gordon Hayward (Celtics)
Hayward broke his ankle and leg about 5 minutes into his Celtics debut and is out for the season. (Dang, that was ugly!) Bet the Celtics would like to have Avery Bradley and even Demetrius Jackson back now. The Celtics got a lot of untested rookies coming off that bench, they're gonna get tested sooner rather than later.
Jeremy Lin (Nets)
Ruptured his patella tendon, won't be back this year. He was definitely going to play minutes for the Nets, a big loss for the team (though not necessarily in terms of wins and losses).
Harry Giles (Kings)
Taking a page out of the Sixers playback, the Kings announced that Giles will rehab his knee for the entire year. So we'll see Giles as a rookie next year.
Luol Deng (Lakers)
Pectoral muscle surgery will keep Deng unavailable indefinitely. Not sure if he returns this season or not.
Fired
Earl Watson (Suns)
Watson was fired 3 games into the season. Yeah, I get that the Suns have looked pretty awful in the first 3 games but I can't say I was surprised by their awfulness--indeed, who was? Didn't we all know that the Suns were going to be pretty horrible this year? Apparently morale is low in Phoenix and Watson was the fall guy. To be honest: this is how Watson got the job 3 years ago and the guy that replaces Watson has got to know that this is how he'll go out eventually too. I have no idea if Watson was the guy for this job or who is, but I don't see any more reason to fire him now than to have fired him 3 months ago or 3 months from now. Suns management hasn't made much sense to me in years, this is just par for the course really. Suns name Jay Triano the interim head coach.
Signings
Lamarcus Aldridge (Spurs) signed 3yr/$50m extension (through 2020)
This was a bit of a shock considering the rumblings all summer long about the Spurs looking to trade Aldridge. But Lamarcus is still a good scorer, he's still likely to be of comparable value to anyone else they could've signed in that slot and signing him doesn't necessarily make him less trade-able. (And I believe the 3rd year is non-guaranteed)
Richard Jefferson (Nuggets) signed 1yr/$2.3m
I kinda thought Jefferson would end up with either the Warriors or Spurs but the Nuggets are young team that could use any/all veteran presence that they can get. Jefferson is well-liked well-respected guy in the league, this is probably an excellent fit (though they had to cut Jameer Nelson to make room).
Jameer Nelson (Pelicans) signed 1yr/undisclosed
Pelicans need all the perimeter ball handlers they can get and I think Jameer is a good fit for their two big guys.
Suspended
Bobby Portis (Bulls) for 8 games
Punching a teammate during practice (sucker punch by some accounts) and shattering bones in his face is a no-no in the modern NBA. Bill Romanowski had to go on 60 Minutes and put on a Forrest Gump routine to get over the stigma of fracturing the orbital bone (and career) of a Raider teammate, not sure what kind of penance Portis will have to perform.
Eric Bledsoe (Suns)
Bledsoe had a sit-down with GM McDonough and interim coach Triano and apparently things did not go well. Bledsoe has been indefinitely suspended from the team and is likely to be traded any day now (Nuggets, Bucks have already been mentioned).
Trades
Hawks get Richard Jefferson, Kay Felder, 2019 2nd rd pick, 2020 2nd rd pick (top 55 protected), $3m cash; Cavs get the rights to Sergey Gladyr and Dimirtios Agravanis
This is just a salary dump for the Cavs and a free $3m clerical exercise for the Hawks. Both Jefferson and Felder were waived by the Hawks and as far as those 2nd round picks go the first is not likely to be any good and the second is not to likely to actually exist. So they gave up the rights to two foreign players that don't have much of a shot at playing in the NBA for $3m, while the Cavs emptied their salary cap of two players. (Felder was claimed by the Bulls--because they needed another PG!)
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 7)
Games I watched (some of):
Chiefs 30-31 Raiders
Pretty good effort from the Raiders, finally got Amari Cooper into the offense, and made the plays down the stretch to get it done (even though I kept reminding everyone at the bar, "Wait, wait....it's the Raiders..."). Tough loss for the Chiefs, thought they were the better team. They let the Raiders run up and down on them, which the Raiders haven't done much of this year, so did the Chiefs mess up or did the Raiders finally get right? I think I'm going with the latter, there's still time for the Raiders to get back into this. But I still consider the Chiefs the class of the AFC (yup, even on a 2-game losing streak).
Ravens 16-24 Vikings
Two rugged defenses, the Vikings with a slightly less mediocre offensive attack. Seemed like Flacco was getting sacked (or preparing to get sacked) pretty much all day long. I kinda can't stand the Ravens, dread seeing them on my TV listings, I think Flacco was never as good as he should've been and is now just barely average (if that). The Vikings are a pretty good team and now that they no longer have to go up against Aaron Rodgers, should win their division. But I feel like they need to get better to make much difference in the post-season; they could get better but they might not.
Saints 26-17 Packers
I know he didn't get the W today but I still believe in Hundley for the Packers, I think he's got a good shot to hold it all together in case Rodgers comes back (if Rodgers doesn't come back, then none if it matters). The Saints are playing pretty good right now, got a good groove going. The Packer D slowed them down for a while but it was only a matter of time before Brees and co. put some points on the board.
Falcons 7-23 Patriots
The Falcons just have no attack at all. They had one good game against the Packers earlier this year but have otherwise never shown anything approaching the blistering offense they had last year. A change at offensive coordinator is clearly the difference, but the whole frickin' team is the same, how could they have dropped off so much? The Pats offense is still the same ol' well-oiled machine they've had for years. The D is up and down, this week the Falcons made them look good again, kinda hard to tell if the Pats defense is where it needs to be or if they just caught a Falcons offense sputtering on prime time. Oh well, until someone beats the Pats, you gotta go with the Pats.
Other results (surprising):
Panthers 3-17 Bears
Hmmm....thought the Panthers were finally getting it together, figured a rookie QB (and rookie RB) on the other side wouldn't get the best of them. No points in the 2nd half? 'Sup wit dat?
Titans 12-9 (OT) Browns
I dunno, I've watched enough of the Browns this year to be wildly unimpressed with their talent, their preparation and their effort, figured the Titans could easily steal a W on the road. Perhaps the Browns have finally figured out how to give a complete effort, but I suspect Mariota isn't quite back from injury and that Titan offense isn't ready to go.
Cowboys 40-10 Niners
The Niners have had nothing but close losses all season long, figured this would be another one. Not sure if this signals that the Cowboys are ready to kick ass again or if the Niners are even more anemic than we thought.
Other results (not so surprising):
Jags 27-0 Colts
Yeah, the Cols have no offense. The Jags have not much offense but a top quality defense. This one was easy to see coming.
Cards 0-33 Rams
The Cards are deteriorating rapidly, they're rebuilding they just don't know it yet. The Rams are cooking, man, they've got a nice attack, nice D-line, and they're getting used to winning. These guys can win in the playoffs, the NFC is as open as any time in recent memory. Don't be shocked if the Rams go deep.
Bucs 27-30 Bills
More points than I would've thought either of these teams could muster but the result (even the lateness of it) is pretty much what I thought it would be. The Bucs are talented but not in sync, the Bills are in sync but only so-so talented, making them strangely on par with each other.
Jets 28-31 Dolphins
The high score is a little surprising but division games are always potentially off-kilter, so no red flags here. The Dolphins finally went to Matt Moore and they look better, don't they? The Dolphin D is still pretty solid, perhaps if they can get their offense straightened out they can still make a run. The Jets, on the other hand, seem to have gotten some things together lately, but there's still a good chance for them to undo what they've done and get back on track for that high draft pick they need so bad. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Dolphins in the playoff hunt from here on in and for NYJ to finish with a top 5 pick.
Chargers 21-0 Broncos
Well, the lopsided score is a little surprising but the result does not shock me. The Chargers have been knocking on the door all year long and have finally started to turn the corner in the last few weeks; meanwhile the Broncos are the exact opposite: overachieving early on and now seem to reverting to the norm. Division games are always unpredictable because the teams know each other so well, this game would've gone totally different in Week 1 or Week 10. But in Week 7, the Chargers are the better team and the Broncos are backsliding.
Seahawks 24-7 Giants
Giants stink. The Seahawks are still getting spotty offensive line play and that's gonna bite them eventually, but not against the Giants.
Redskins 24-34 Eagles
The Redskins defense has been pretty good this year, so far the Eagles to lay 34 on them is impressive. I can still be talked into the Redskins: the D is legit and the offense is not bad most of the time, if they can stop being their own worst enemy they can win games in the post-season. The Eagles are steadily better each week, I thought they would be but then again I never think that what I think is the way its gonna be, so I'm as shocked as anyone. In the Rodgers-less NFC, the Eagles are the best team.
Won and covered: Raiders, Bills, Bears, Saints, Jags, Rams,Vikings, Cowboys, Seahawks, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Eagles
Won but didn't cover: Titans
Push: Dolphins, Jets,
Lost and covered: Browns,
Lost, didn't cover: Chiefs, Bucs, Panthers, Packers, Colts, Cards, Ravens, Niners, Giants, Bengals, Broncos, Falcons, Redskins
Chiefs 30-31 Raiders
Pretty good effort from the Raiders, finally got Amari Cooper into the offense, and made the plays down the stretch to get it done (even though I kept reminding everyone at the bar, "Wait, wait....it's the Raiders..."). Tough loss for the Chiefs, thought they were the better team. They let the Raiders run up and down on them, which the Raiders haven't done much of this year, so did the Chiefs mess up or did the Raiders finally get right? I think I'm going with the latter, there's still time for the Raiders to get back into this. But I still consider the Chiefs the class of the AFC (yup, even on a 2-game losing streak).
Ravens 16-24 Vikings
Two rugged defenses, the Vikings with a slightly less mediocre offensive attack. Seemed like Flacco was getting sacked (or preparing to get sacked) pretty much all day long. I kinda can't stand the Ravens, dread seeing them on my TV listings, I think Flacco was never as good as he should've been and is now just barely average (if that). The Vikings are a pretty good team and now that they no longer have to go up against Aaron Rodgers, should win their division. But I feel like they need to get better to make much difference in the post-season; they could get better but they might not.
Saints 26-17 Packers
I know he didn't get the W today but I still believe in Hundley for the Packers, I think he's got a good shot to hold it all together in case Rodgers comes back (if Rodgers doesn't come back, then none if it matters). The Saints are playing pretty good right now, got a good groove going. The Packer D slowed them down for a while but it was only a matter of time before Brees and co. put some points on the board.
Falcons 7-23 Patriots
The Falcons just have no attack at all. They had one good game against the Packers earlier this year but have otherwise never shown anything approaching the blistering offense they had last year. A change at offensive coordinator is clearly the difference, but the whole frickin' team is the same, how could they have dropped off so much? The Pats offense is still the same ol' well-oiled machine they've had for years. The D is up and down, this week the Falcons made them look good again, kinda hard to tell if the Pats defense is where it needs to be or if they just caught a Falcons offense sputtering on prime time. Oh well, until someone beats the Pats, you gotta go with the Pats.
Other results (surprising):
Panthers 3-17 Bears
Hmmm....thought the Panthers were finally getting it together, figured a rookie QB (and rookie RB) on the other side wouldn't get the best of them. No points in the 2nd half? 'Sup wit dat?
Titans 12-9 (OT) Browns
I dunno, I've watched enough of the Browns this year to be wildly unimpressed with their talent, their preparation and their effort, figured the Titans could easily steal a W on the road. Perhaps the Browns have finally figured out how to give a complete effort, but I suspect Mariota isn't quite back from injury and that Titan offense isn't ready to go.
Cowboys 40-10 Niners
The Niners have had nothing but close losses all season long, figured this would be another one. Not sure if this signals that the Cowboys are ready to kick ass again or if the Niners are even more anemic than we thought.
Other results (not so surprising):
Jags 27-0 Colts
Yeah, the Cols have no offense. The Jags have not much offense but a top quality defense. This one was easy to see coming.
Cards 0-33 Rams
The Cards are deteriorating rapidly, they're rebuilding they just don't know it yet. The Rams are cooking, man, they've got a nice attack, nice D-line, and they're getting used to winning. These guys can win in the playoffs, the NFC is as open as any time in recent memory. Don't be shocked if the Rams go deep.
Bucs 27-30 Bills
More points than I would've thought either of these teams could muster but the result (even the lateness of it) is pretty much what I thought it would be. The Bucs are talented but not in sync, the Bills are in sync but only so-so talented, making them strangely on par with each other.
Jets 28-31 Dolphins
The high score is a little surprising but division games are always potentially off-kilter, so no red flags here. The Dolphins finally went to Matt Moore and they look better, don't they? The Dolphin D is still pretty solid, perhaps if they can get their offense straightened out they can still make a run. The Jets, on the other hand, seem to have gotten some things together lately, but there's still a good chance for them to undo what they've done and get back on track for that high draft pick they need so bad. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Dolphins in the playoff hunt from here on in and for NYJ to finish with a top 5 pick.
Chargers 21-0 Broncos
Well, the lopsided score is a little surprising but the result does not shock me. The Chargers have been knocking on the door all year long and have finally started to turn the corner in the last few weeks; meanwhile the Broncos are the exact opposite: overachieving early on and now seem to reverting to the norm. Division games are always unpredictable because the teams know each other so well, this game would've gone totally different in Week 1 or Week 10. But in Week 7, the Chargers are the better team and the Broncos are backsliding.
Seahawks 24-7 Giants
Giants stink. The Seahawks are still getting spotty offensive line play and that's gonna bite them eventually, but not against the Giants.
Redskins 24-34 Eagles
The Redskins defense has been pretty good this year, so far the Eagles to lay 34 on them is impressive. I can still be talked into the Redskins: the D is legit and the offense is not bad most of the time, if they can stop being their own worst enemy they can win games in the post-season. The Eagles are steadily better each week, I thought they would be but then again I never think that what I think is the way its gonna be, so I'm as shocked as anyone. In the Rodgers-less NFC, the Eagles are the best team.
Won and covered: Raiders, Bills, Bears, Saints, Jags, Rams,Vikings, Cowboys, Seahawks, Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Eagles
Won but didn't cover: Titans
Push: Dolphins, Jets,
Lost and covered: Browns,
Lost, didn't cover: Chiefs, Bucs, Panthers, Packers, Colts, Cards, Ravens, Niners, Giants, Bengals, Broncos, Falcons, Redskins
2017 MLB Post-Season Predictions (part 4)
I am a Cleveland Indians fan and I watched them a lot this year. I don't recall their games against the Astros but I remember being very impressed with the Dodgers (best team I saw all year long). The Astros owned the first third of the season, the Dodgers owned the second. Both had their struggles, too, but fortunately for them they got the struggles out of their system before the playoffs started (not true for my Indians, alas).
Astros handled the Red Sox without much problem; Yankees caught the Indians backpedaling. The Yanks were able to steal W's at home against the Astros but that team isn't quite ready, they got further than they should have this year and the Astros were able to right the ship and take the victory.
Dodgers handled the D-Backs without much problem; the Cubs caught the Nationals at less than their best. The Cubs have a lot talent--thought they should've been the dominant team all year long--but they just weren't up to it this season and the Dodgers mowed them down easily.
Both of these teams dodged a bullet: Indians at their best and Nationals at their best would've challenged both of these teams, may have even gotten past them. But champions get lucky, too, that doesn't mean the Dodgers and Astros are undeserving. Not at all, they're both excellent squads and did what they had to do to get to this point.
My first thought is the Dodgers have deeper pitching, more variation in the lineup and the home field advantage, gotta go with the Dodgers. But the Astros as an underdog is very intriguing: they're a scrappy team, the kind of team that probably loves the idea that no one thinks they can do it. Baseball is a momentum game, gotta figure the Astros have a good shot at steering the series their way.
Astros handled the Red Sox without much problem; Yankees caught the Indians backpedaling. The Yanks were able to steal W's at home against the Astros but that team isn't quite ready, they got further than they should have this year and the Astros were able to right the ship and take the victory.
Dodgers handled the D-Backs without much problem; the Cubs caught the Nationals at less than their best. The Cubs have a lot talent--thought they should've been the dominant team all year long--but they just weren't up to it this season and the Dodgers mowed them down easily.
Both of these teams dodged a bullet: Indians at their best and Nationals at their best would've challenged both of these teams, may have even gotten past them. But champions get lucky, too, that doesn't mean the Dodgers and Astros are undeserving. Not at all, they're both excellent squads and did what they had to do to get to this point.
My first thought is the Dodgers have deeper pitching, more variation in the lineup and the home field advantage, gotta go with the Dodgers. But the Astros as an underdog is very intriguing: they're a scrappy team, the kind of team that probably loves the idea that no one thinks they can do it. Baseball is a momentum game, gotta figure the Astros have a good shot at steering the series their way.
I think the Dodgers are better and have the better chance at winning, but that's precisely what gives the Astros a chance to sneak the whole Series. I was going to say Dodgers in 6 but I think I've talked myself into Dodgers in 7. Should be a hell of a Series, I'm looking forward to it.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
2017-18 NCAA Football (Week 8)
(19) Michigan 13-42 Penn State
Yeah, this game wasn't that close. Felt like Penn State was gonna score every time they touched the ball, even against a pretty well stacked Michigan defense. Michigan on the other side of the ball is still a project and they didn't get much going in this game. Nittany Lions still look like the real deal, that offense can move and that defense can grind, I wouldn't have put them ahead of Clemson but Penn State has a shot at getting to the final.
(11) Southern Cal 14-49 (13) Notre Dame
I've had my eye on Notre Dame all year (wouldn't you have to say of the 1-loss teams, they have the best loss?), figured they'd have a good chance against the up-and-down Trojans. Oh man, they had more than a chance. The Irish pretty well stomped them from the jump. USC's performance was so bad it kinda calls into question the whole PAC, doesn't it? That conference is such a cluster and USC's inability to emerge is disheartening. The Irish are good, maybe really good.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Penn State, (4) TCU, (5) Wisconsin, (13) Notre Dame, (14) Virginia Tech, (15) Washington State, (16) South Florida, (20) Central Florida, (21) Auburn, (23) West Virginia (I'll overlook the weird 4th quarter collapse because it looks like they had the game well in hand), (24) LSU
Got it done but did not impress
(8) Miami. (I notice I have them in this category a lot this season...) At home, outdoors, on grass, against a so-so Syracuse squad should not be scuffling effort for a top ten team. Miami clearly has talent and moxie but are they really gonna be there at the end of the year?
(9) Oklahoma. Man, I keep waiting for the Sooners to dominate but they're just not going to, are they? Scrambling on the road to Kansas State is not a good sign.
(10) Oklahoma State. I can forgive an OT win against a (sorta) resurgent Texas squad, but to only score 10 points in regulation is troubling for a team built on overwhelming offense. Looks like they get pretty whelmed down in Austin.
(18) Michigan State. Had to come from behind to steal a W at home from Indiana--though to be fair, seems like Indiana has done that to a lot of folks this year. Are the Hoosiers on to something?
(25) Memphis. Coming from behind to steal one at Houston is probably more impressive than I'm giving it credit for.
Not good
(11) Southern Cal. They just looked discombobulated from beginning to end in South Bend.
(19) Michigan. Penn State was clearly the superior team in this contest.
Other notable games
Louisville 31-28 Florida State. Boy, this season has not gone as planned for either of these teams. Who would've thought that this game would be such an afterthought?
Next week's notable games (good slate!):
(2) Penn State @ (6) Ohio State
(11) Oklahoma State @ (22) West Virginia
(4) TCU @ (25) Iowa State
(14) North Carolina State @ (9) Notre Dame
Yeah, this game wasn't that close. Felt like Penn State was gonna score every time they touched the ball, even against a pretty well stacked Michigan defense. Michigan on the other side of the ball is still a project and they didn't get much going in this game. Nittany Lions still look like the real deal, that offense can move and that defense can grind, I wouldn't have put them ahead of Clemson but Penn State has a shot at getting to the final.
(11) Southern Cal 14-49 (13) Notre Dame
I've had my eye on Notre Dame all year (wouldn't you have to say of the 1-loss teams, they have the best loss?), figured they'd have a good chance against the up-and-down Trojans. Oh man, they had more than a chance. The Irish pretty well stomped them from the jump. USC's performance was so bad it kinda calls into question the whole PAC, doesn't it? That conference is such a cluster and USC's inability to emerge is disheartening. The Irish are good, maybe really good.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Penn State, (4) TCU, (5) Wisconsin, (13) Notre Dame, (14) Virginia Tech, (15) Washington State, (16) South Florida, (20) Central Florida, (21) Auburn, (23) West Virginia (I'll overlook the weird 4th quarter collapse because it looks like they had the game well in hand), (24) LSU
Got it done but did not impress
(8) Miami. (I notice I have them in this category a lot this season...) At home, outdoors, on grass, against a so-so Syracuse squad should not be scuffling effort for a top ten team. Miami clearly has talent and moxie but are they really gonna be there at the end of the year?
(9) Oklahoma. Man, I keep waiting for the Sooners to dominate but they're just not going to, are they? Scrambling on the road to Kansas State is not a good sign.
(10) Oklahoma State. I can forgive an OT win against a (sorta) resurgent Texas squad, but to only score 10 points in regulation is troubling for a team built on overwhelming offense. Looks like they get pretty whelmed down in Austin.
(18) Michigan State. Had to come from behind to steal a W at home from Indiana--though to be fair, seems like Indiana has done that to a lot of folks this year. Are the Hoosiers on to something?
(25) Memphis. Coming from behind to steal one at Houston is probably more impressive than I'm giving it credit for.
Not good
(11) Southern Cal. They just looked discombobulated from beginning to end in South Bend.
(19) Michigan. Penn State was clearly the superior team in this contest.
Other notable games
Louisville 31-28 Florida State. Boy, this season has not gone as planned for either of these teams. Who would've thought that this game would be such an afterthought?
Next week's notable games (good slate!):
(2) Penn State @ (6) Ohio State
(11) Oklahoma State @ (22) West Virginia
(4) TCU @ (25) Iowa State
(14) North Carolina State @ (9) Notre Dame
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
2017-18 NFL Week 6 Power Ranking (NFC)
Eagles (x)
It seems a little early to anoint Wentz as a top QB but he's getting it done out there, you can't front on that. The defense is really good, the special teams is top notch and the offensive weapons look good enough to grind through their up-and-down division. I'll stick with them.
Packers (wc)
(Yeah, picked a tough week to do the power ranking) Well, the Packers have been the best, most explosive, most reliable team in the NFC so far. But without Aaron Rodgers can they keep that up? Rodgers was covering up their offensive line woes, dropping that onto a never-used backup is gonna be grueling. That said, I was reasonably impressed with Hundley, I'm optimistic that he can use his feet and be a poor man's Rodgers well enough to keep them in playoffs. On the other hand, the Bears are looking a little better and the Lions are quite capable of winning a shootout, there's not much margin for error for this Packer squad.
Rams (x)
They feel a year (or two) ahead of schedule but they're getting wins on the road and that's no joke. The Cards have deteriorated badly, the Niners are still not good enough to win and the Seahawks seem within their reach, so I've got to put them up here. Nice young QB, good RB, solid d-line, they've built themselves up the right way and they're competing with them best of them right now. #3 in the NFC (with a Rodgers-less Packers ahead of them) seems high but they've earned it.
Panthers (x)
It may seem like a reach to put the Panthers here though they've had a few wonky games, but I still think this team has all the pieces needed to win their division and make a good run in the playoffs. Looks like Kuechly is out for a while but I think they can overcome that. They need top quality Cam to win games and I think he's ready to bust out.
Vikings (x)
I haven't been blown away by the Vikings but they're good not great at seemingly every position which isn't a bad way to go. With the return of Teddy Bridgewater they have a full-on controversy brewing at QB but so far Case Keenum has played well and gotten the job done, I reckon they'll stick with him. The defense is good enough to keep every game close, Keenum needs to merely not make mistakes and they'll go a long way to catching and passing the Pack.
Seahawks (wc)
I dunno, they seem to be slipping. They've been there at the end year after year but that offensive line looks even worse than usual. Russell Wilson has had to do a lot so far and that's just to eke out the close wins. They're asking a lot of him and in a year when the pass rushes seem to be catching up, it's a tall order for Wilson to keep lugging this team around on his back. The defense is still good but not quite great, I'm not sure I have any faith in the running game, I want to like this team but I think they've got the potential to fall.
Saints
The offense is cooking, the defense is not bad. The Saints know who they are, there's no controversies there and that makes a big difference in the NFL. Right now, I'd say they're still looking up to the Packers but they can be caught (as can the Panthers). I think the Saints offense can get better and the defense will probably have to. They're definitely still in the hunt for the post-season.
Redskins
I thought the Eagles and Redskins would pass up the Cowboys and Giants this year and so far I think I'm right. The Cowboys can still get better but if the Redskins could just get to an even keel, I think they can get to the post-season--and surprise people! The pass defense is really impressive and the offense has moments. If they can hold off the Cowboys, I think they'll be hanging with Saints, Packers and Seahawks for the wild cards.
Cowboys
I've got to put the Cowboys ahead of the Falcons because I think the Cowboy deficiencies are overcome-able (whereas I don't think that about the Falcons). I still like Dak and that O-line, but I'm not particularly in love with anything else they got going right now. I thought they overachieved last year, I think they're slightly underachieving this year. If they can tread water til Elliott returns, maybe they can make a late season push.
Lions
The Lions have a nice offense and a nice defense, a nice home field advantage and they don't suck too bad on the road. Yeah, they're about the middle of the NFL right now which is not good enough for the playoffs. They're a couple pieces away from either the playoffs or a top five pick. Don't think they get to either this season.
Falcons
The Falcons early on looked like a team that would be so-so on the road and old-time dominant at home; but dropping their last two home games to non-conference opponents (with a bye week in between!) puts the lie to that. Looking pretty clear that the Falcons overachieved last year and this team is in a rebuild til they all get back on the same page. I don't think they get back into the wild card race this season.
Bears
Early on I was impressed with the running game and the pass rush, those are two good cornerstones to build on. They've added on a promising rookie QB and that's a good thing. I suspect by year's end they'll win more games than they ought to. But for now they're just plucky overachievers.
Cards
Man, they got old fast. They just look beat on both sides of the ball. Pretty common in soccer: some team you never thought twice about makes a nice run in the World Cup, then brings back the same team four years later...and looks terrible. Someone always holds on to the old stars a little too long and then gets punished severely for it. The Cards are getting punished severely this year. Rebuilding and yet there's no sense of future development here. (They could be monumentally awful next year, for now they're just not very good)
Bucs
Every year folks think the Bucs are ready to take the next step and every year they don't that step. This is just another year of that. Talent, plenty of talent, but no winners, you know? There's no one in that locker room that can guide this team forward.
Giants
Nice win last week at Denver. It was a mirage, though, this team is not good at all, not good anywhere. This team needs to rebuild now, sell off every player, empty out the practice squad, open up the playbook, find a new direction.
Niners
I kinda hate to put the Niners at the bottom, they really do play hard. They cover spreads and keep games close and I respect that. But this team just doesn't have enough talent to pull out a win. They need a QB badly, otherwise they don't look that bad.
It seems a little early to anoint Wentz as a top QB but he's getting it done out there, you can't front on that. The defense is really good, the special teams is top notch and the offensive weapons look good enough to grind through their up-and-down division. I'll stick with them.
Packers (wc)
(Yeah, picked a tough week to do the power ranking) Well, the Packers have been the best, most explosive, most reliable team in the NFC so far. But without Aaron Rodgers can they keep that up? Rodgers was covering up their offensive line woes, dropping that onto a never-used backup is gonna be grueling. That said, I was reasonably impressed with Hundley, I'm optimistic that he can use his feet and be a poor man's Rodgers well enough to keep them in playoffs. On the other hand, the Bears are looking a little better and the Lions are quite capable of winning a shootout, there's not much margin for error for this Packer squad.
Rams (x)
They feel a year (or two) ahead of schedule but they're getting wins on the road and that's no joke. The Cards have deteriorated badly, the Niners are still not good enough to win and the Seahawks seem within their reach, so I've got to put them up here. Nice young QB, good RB, solid d-line, they've built themselves up the right way and they're competing with them best of them right now. #3 in the NFC (with a Rodgers-less Packers ahead of them) seems high but they've earned it.
Panthers (x)
It may seem like a reach to put the Panthers here though they've had a few wonky games, but I still think this team has all the pieces needed to win their division and make a good run in the playoffs. Looks like Kuechly is out for a while but I think they can overcome that. They need top quality Cam to win games and I think he's ready to bust out.
Vikings (x)
I haven't been blown away by the Vikings but they're good not great at seemingly every position which isn't a bad way to go. With the return of Teddy Bridgewater they have a full-on controversy brewing at QB but so far Case Keenum has played well and gotten the job done, I reckon they'll stick with him. The defense is good enough to keep every game close, Keenum needs to merely not make mistakes and they'll go a long way to catching and passing the Pack.
Seahawks (wc)
I dunno, they seem to be slipping. They've been there at the end year after year but that offensive line looks even worse than usual. Russell Wilson has had to do a lot so far and that's just to eke out the close wins. They're asking a lot of him and in a year when the pass rushes seem to be catching up, it's a tall order for Wilson to keep lugging this team around on his back. The defense is still good but not quite great, I'm not sure I have any faith in the running game, I want to like this team but I think they've got the potential to fall.
Saints
The offense is cooking, the defense is not bad. The Saints know who they are, there's no controversies there and that makes a big difference in the NFL. Right now, I'd say they're still looking up to the Packers but they can be caught (as can the Panthers). I think the Saints offense can get better and the defense will probably have to. They're definitely still in the hunt for the post-season.
Redskins
I thought the Eagles and Redskins would pass up the Cowboys and Giants this year and so far I think I'm right. The Cowboys can still get better but if the Redskins could just get to an even keel, I think they can get to the post-season--and surprise people! The pass defense is really impressive and the offense has moments. If they can hold off the Cowboys, I think they'll be hanging with Saints, Packers and Seahawks for the wild cards.
Cowboys
I've got to put the Cowboys ahead of the Falcons because I think the Cowboy deficiencies are overcome-able (whereas I don't think that about the Falcons). I still like Dak and that O-line, but I'm not particularly in love with anything else they got going right now. I thought they overachieved last year, I think they're slightly underachieving this year. If they can tread water til Elliott returns, maybe they can make a late season push.
Lions
The Lions have a nice offense and a nice defense, a nice home field advantage and they don't suck too bad on the road. Yeah, they're about the middle of the NFL right now which is not good enough for the playoffs. They're a couple pieces away from either the playoffs or a top five pick. Don't think they get to either this season.
Falcons
The Falcons early on looked like a team that would be so-so on the road and old-time dominant at home; but dropping their last two home games to non-conference opponents (with a bye week in between!) puts the lie to that. Looking pretty clear that the Falcons overachieved last year and this team is in a rebuild til they all get back on the same page. I don't think they get back into the wild card race this season.
Bears
Early on I was impressed with the running game and the pass rush, those are two good cornerstones to build on. They've added on a promising rookie QB and that's a good thing. I suspect by year's end they'll win more games than they ought to. But for now they're just plucky overachievers.
Cards
Man, they got old fast. They just look beat on both sides of the ball. Pretty common in soccer: some team you never thought twice about makes a nice run in the World Cup, then brings back the same team four years later...and looks terrible. Someone always holds on to the old stars a little too long and then gets punished severely for it. The Cards are getting punished severely this year. Rebuilding and yet there's no sense of future development here. (They could be monumentally awful next year, for now they're just not very good)
Bucs
Every year folks think the Bucs are ready to take the next step and every year they don't that step. This is just another year of that. Talent, plenty of talent, but no winners, you know? There's no one in that locker room that can guide this team forward.
Giants
Nice win last week at Denver. It was a mirage, though, this team is not good at all, not good anywhere. This team needs to rebuild now, sell off every player, empty out the practice squad, open up the playbook, find a new direction.
Niners
I kinda hate to put the Niners at the bottom, they really do play hard. They cover spreads and keep games close and I respect that. But this team just doesn't have enough talent to pull out a win. They need a QB badly, otherwise they don't look that bad.
2017-18 NFL Week 6 Power Ranking (AFC)
Chiefs (x)
Bad loss to the Steelers but I still think they're the best in the AFC. The running game looks good, Alex Smith is as explosive as I've ever seen him and the defense is crunchy. With Rodgers out I'd say they're the most complete team in the league right now. (They suck against the Steeler, though, not sure why that is)
Pats (x)
Well, Brady is still Brady and their division is still not as good as them but clearly their defense isn't vintage. That said, until somebody beats them I've got to keep riding them.
Texans (x)
Losing Watt and Mercilus hurts but they've still got a killer defense. And now that they've finally found a QB in Watson, they should trounce their sorry division now. That alone gets them to 10 wins, don't you think?
Steelers (x)
Clearly Roethlisberger isn't the same and the defense is nice but not overwhelming. But now that LeVeon Bell looks up to speed, they can finally set up Ben for opportunities over the top to those wideouts. They haven't looked particularly good until week 6 but the makings of a run through the playoffs is right there for the taking.
Titans (wc)
Steady improvement over the years has finally gotten them to a place where Mariotta can just settle in to be a good but not great QB and that alone should get them into the playoff race. With the Texans looking to take off, the Titans could be in some trouble in their division but I think they still match up well with potential wild card competition.
Broncos (wc)
Well, I'm not sure what to think of the Broncos after that NYG game. The defense is still good (though why couldn't they stop the one-dimensional NYG attack?) and I thought Simien had hit a point where he could get wins, but now I'm not so sure. I still think they should be better than the Chargers but that might not last for long. I'll keep them in the wild card for now.
Chargers
They started the season by losing close games, but now they're on a streak of winning the close ones. The defense isn't bad and if they can keep them close, I still like Rivers to pull out some W's. Feels like they've finally got something going right now, I'll take the veteran QB to keep it going (especially since the Bills, Dolphins, and Ravens don't feel like they're any better).
Bengals
The Bengals started pretty bad but bringing in a new offensive coordinator has given them a new attitude and I think they could be ready to make a run. The pass rush is surprisingly good, the rookie RB still has time to emerge as a for-real talent and the new quick-release Andy Dalton can move the ball. I like their chances to contend for a wild card spot by year's end.
Bills
I love that defense, they're gritty and they take the ball away. And I want to like that offense but down the stretch you just know Tyrod's not gonna pull out victories. If the defense scores points, they'll win games; if not, they'll lose a lot of close ones.
Dolphins
One of these teams that's actually pretty good when they're not trying so hard to look bad. I was never the biggest Jay Cutler fan but I kinda think he still has time to get something happening. I still believe in the offensive weapons and the pass rush--but I also still believe they might never come together. If they can, then that division could be had.
Ravens
What's up with the Ravens? Feels like they could be good but then they're not. The D is stout as usual but doesn't have enough playmakers to keep the offense from shooting itself in the foot. Joe Flacco is just not good at football--a weird realization to make after all these years. When the game's on the line, does anyone believe Flacco is going to pull it out? They're good enough to stay in games but not good enough to win them (they've become the Chargers).
Jags
After years of pure awfulness, the Jags have finally gotten their defense where it needs to be and the emergence of Fournette gives the running game a real punch. They're finally in a place to win some games....except for that terrible QB play. This team actually looks like they can be dangerous week after week but Bortles just kills any momentum. Until they can figure out some kind of something at QB (Kaepernick doesn't feel like the answer and Eli is much too expensive for a rental), I don't see how they win games or make a difference this year. (Hello, Kirk Cousins?)
Jets
I thought they Jets would be truly awful this year but they've been something of a pleasant surprise. They still don't have a QB and the defense comes and goes but they play like a team and they've got some real moxy. I think the Dolphins and Bills are better so I don't think they've got much of a shot at winning too many more games this year, though. They'll beat some bad teams but I don't think they'll beat the good ones.
Raiders
Coming into the season it felt like the Raiders were in Rennaissance mode, like they were ready to take the next step and ease their way into the playoffs. They looked okay in the first two weeks but since then they've been all downhill. The receivers are a no-show, the running game is sputtering, Carr has been uninspiring and/or injured, the pass rush is not impressive and even the special teams look bad this year. This is one of the bad Raider teams when I was expecting one of the good ones. Still time to get going but with the Chiefs dominating and the Chargers finally getting it together, not sure there's room for the Raiders to get back into things this season.
Colts
I was never a fan of this team even when they had Andrew Luck and though I've been mildly impressed with Jacoby Brissett so far, there just isn't enough there to make them seem competitive. With the emergence of the Texans offense and the Jags defense, I just don't see where the wins come from for these guys. They should get a nice draft pick and a solid trade chip in Brissett in the off-season which should make for an upgrade when Luck returns next year.
Browns
After a competitive L against the Steelers in Week One, I felt like the Browns were going to be one of those hard working teams that cover spreads, challenges late in games and would figure out how to score some upsets by season's end. I no longer think that. This team is bad, they don't play particularly hard, Coach Jackson looks like he's flailing, they've shown no depth at all at QB. Man, this team could go winless.
Bad loss to the Steelers but I still think they're the best in the AFC. The running game looks good, Alex Smith is as explosive as I've ever seen him and the defense is crunchy. With Rodgers out I'd say they're the most complete team in the league right now. (They suck against the Steeler, though, not sure why that is)
Pats (x)
Well, Brady is still Brady and their division is still not as good as them but clearly their defense isn't vintage. That said, until somebody beats them I've got to keep riding them.
Texans (x)
Losing Watt and Mercilus hurts but they've still got a killer defense. And now that they've finally found a QB in Watson, they should trounce their sorry division now. That alone gets them to 10 wins, don't you think?
Steelers (x)
Clearly Roethlisberger isn't the same and the defense is nice but not overwhelming. But now that LeVeon Bell looks up to speed, they can finally set up Ben for opportunities over the top to those wideouts. They haven't looked particularly good until week 6 but the makings of a run through the playoffs is right there for the taking.
Titans (wc)
Steady improvement over the years has finally gotten them to a place where Mariotta can just settle in to be a good but not great QB and that alone should get them into the playoff race. With the Texans looking to take off, the Titans could be in some trouble in their division but I think they still match up well with potential wild card competition.
Broncos (wc)
Well, I'm not sure what to think of the Broncos after that NYG game. The defense is still good (though why couldn't they stop the one-dimensional NYG attack?) and I thought Simien had hit a point where he could get wins, but now I'm not so sure. I still think they should be better than the Chargers but that might not last for long. I'll keep them in the wild card for now.
Chargers
They started the season by losing close games, but now they're on a streak of winning the close ones. The defense isn't bad and if they can keep them close, I still like Rivers to pull out some W's. Feels like they've finally got something going right now, I'll take the veteran QB to keep it going (especially since the Bills, Dolphins, and Ravens don't feel like they're any better).
Bengals
The Bengals started pretty bad but bringing in a new offensive coordinator has given them a new attitude and I think they could be ready to make a run. The pass rush is surprisingly good, the rookie RB still has time to emerge as a for-real talent and the new quick-release Andy Dalton can move the ball. I like their chances to contend for a wild card spot by year's end.
Bills
I love that defense, they're gritty and they take the ball away. And I want to like that offense but down the stretch you just know Tyrod's not gonna pull out victories. If the defense scores points, they'll win games; if not, they'll lose a lot of close ones.
Dolphins
One of these teams that's actually pretty good when they're not trying so hard to look bad. I was never the biggest Jay Cutler fan but I kinda think he still has time to get something happening. I still believe in the offensive weapons and the pass rush--but I also still believe they might never come together. If they can, then that division could be had.
Ravens
What's up with the Ravens? Feels like they could be good but then they're not. The D is stout as usual but doesn't have enough playmakers to keep the offense from shooting itself in the foot. Joe Flacco is just not good at football--a weird realization to make after all these years. When the game's on the line, does anyone believe Flacco is going to pull it out? They're good enough to stay in games but not good enough to win them (they've become the Chargers).
Jags
After years of pure awfulness, the Jags have finally gotten their defense where it needs to be and the emergence of Fournette gives the running game a real punch. They're finally in a place to win some games....except for that terrible QB play. This team actually looks like they can be dangerous week after week but Bortles just kills any momentum. Until they can figure out some kind of something at QB (Kaepernick doesn't feel like the answer and Eli is much too expensive for a rental), I don't see how they win games or make a difference this year. (Hello, Kirk Cousins?)
Jets
I thought they Jets would be truly awful this year but they've been something of a pleasant surprise. They still don't have a QB and the defense comes and goes but they play like a team and they've got some real moxy. I think the Dolphins and Bills are better so I don't think they've got much of a shot at winning too many more games this year, though. They'll beat some bad teams but I don't think they'll beat the good ones.
Raiders
Coming into the season it felt like the Raiders were in Rennaissance mode, like they were ready to take the next step and ease their way into the playoffs. They looked okay in the first two weeks but since then they've been all downhill. The receivers are a no-show, the running game is sputtering, Carr has been uninspiring and/or injured, the pass rush is not impressive and even the special teams look bad this year. This is one of the bad Raider teams when I was expecting one of the good ones. Still time to get going but with the Chiefs dominating and the Chargers finally getting it together, not sure there's room for the Raiders to get back into things this season.
Colts
I was never a fan of this team even when they had Andrew Luck and though I've been mildly impressed with Jacoby Brissett so far, there just isn't enough there to make them seem competitive. With the emergence of the Texans offense and the Jags defense, I just don't see where the wins come from for these guys. They should get a nice draft pick and a solid trade chip in Brissett in the off-season which should make for an upgrade when Luck returns next year.
Browns
After a competitive L against the Steelers in Week One, I felt like the Browns were going to be one of those hard working teams that cover spreads, challenges late in games and would figure out how to score some upsets by season's end. I no longer think that. This team is bad, they don't play particularly hard, Coach Jackson looks like he's flailing, they've shown no depth at all at QB. Man, this team could go winless.
2017-18 NFL (Week 6)
Games I watched (some of):
Eagles 28-23 Panthers
This was a good game, two good teams going at it. Thought Cam made some weird passes, he wasn't as crisp as he could've been but I was still generally impressed with the Panthers on both sides of the ball. Thought the Eagles were even better, a really good win for them. The Panthers were fine but their limitations show against good teams.
Packers 10-23 Vikings
I was watching this game when Rodgers got hit and I was kinda shocked that there wasn't a flag; I was similarly shocked when came up gimpy and stayed gimpy, I fully expected him to come back out til they carted him off. You knew the Pack was in trouble when even the defense seemed out of sorts for a while. The Vikings were good enough to win but you gotta feel like Rodgers would've pulled the game out. Rodgers has been covering up a rickety offensive line, gonna be tough for a backup to get up to speed; that said, I was reasonably impressed with backup QB Hundley: he scrambles and thinks on his feet like Rodgers, I think he's got a shot at being pretty good. But it'll take at least a few weeks for Hundley to turn into something, so for now the Vikings are the team to beat in the NFC North.
Browns 17-33 Texans
This game was over pretty quick. Fun to watch Deshaun Watson, though, that guy's a for-real badass. The Browns benched DeShone Kizer and now they have to go back to him. Yipes! Didn't think it could get worse for them but it has. The Texans, on the other hand, finally got some offense going and even though they've taken some hits on defense, looks like they're still the team to beat in the AFC South.
Steelers 19-13 Chiefs
The Steelers finally figured out to stop relying on Roethliesberger and get Le'veon Bell going. And the pass rush got after Alex Smith, making him look like the old time Alex Smith. If the Steelers can keep this game plan going, perhaps they can get back to the top of the table in the AFC, but its still a work in progress. The Chiefs had looked pretty unstoppable until this game, but I'm going with the notion that they just can't beat the Steelers. I still think the Chiefs are the best in the AFC.
Giants 23-10 Broncos
The Giants can't be as bad as they've looked so far, right? Well, I wasn't convinced of that but they looked pretty strong on both sides in Denver the other night. The Broncos on the other hand still look lost on offense and I have no idea why the D couldn't stop the Eli attack. Oh well. The Giants are still out of it, still playing for a draft pick, but don't be surprised if they accidentally win a few games along the way. Not sure what to make of the Broncos, I think they're a middle of the road team that could figure it out by the end (but I have less and less faith that they will).
Other results (surprising):
Bears 27-24 (OT) Ravens
The Ravens still have a good defense and not much offense but they should still beat a rookie QB, rookie RB at home, right? Guess not. The Bears have nowhere to go but up and they'll be a fun team that might win a few games.
Lions 38-52 Saints
As the score for this went by on the ticker at one point the Saints had 38 points and Brees had like 120 yards passing....wtf? These are not defensive squads, this is clearly a toss-away game.
Dolphins 20-17 Falcons
The Falcons have now dropped two non-conference home games in a row? That's not good. They should be dominating on their home field, clearly they still have to get used to a new offensive coordinator. The Dolphins are the AFC Redskins: they're actually pretty good when they're not going out of their way to look bad. I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not as bad as they look most of the time.
Other results (not so surprising):
Pats 24-17 Jets
Yeah, the Pats didn't dominate but they don't always dominate and division games can go sideways at any time. This game will be forever remembered (seriously, this one will hang around for a while) for the non-TD of Seferian-Jenkins (how does bobbling the ball a little bit equal a fumble? And how does coming down cleanly with the ball equal a touchback?). The Jets, Dolphins, Bills are all fairly similar teams and it kinda feels like the Pats are ever so slowly drifting back to them.
Niners 24-26 Redskins
I caught the last few minutes of this and I gotta say the Redskins deserved to lose (though I can't say the Niners deserved to win).
Bucs 33-38 Cards
Two teams with all defense and no offense (is that really even true any more of either of these teams?) ended up topping 70 points on the board? No, they're both just lame.
Rams 27-17 Jags
The Jags need a QB badly--okay here's the test case: could they use Kaepernick? Couldn't be worse than Bortles but does he make them competitive in that division? Maybe. The Rams are good and getting gooder each week.
Chargers 17-16 Raiders
Chargers finally win a game late instead of losing one. Not inconceivable that the Chargers are still in the playoff hunt. Not so for the Raiders, who have looked pretty awful for 4 straight weeks (71 points in first two games, 53 games in the last four). Coming into the season the Raiders were everyone's favorite but looking back on it, why? They're not particularly strong at any phase of the game and if Carr is hurt, they become a lower half of the league kinda team.
Colts 22-36 Titans
Looks like it took the Titans a while to get going but this score looks about right.
Won (covered): Eagles, Dolphins, Vikings, Saints, Bears, Texans, Cards, Rams, Steelers, Chargers, Giants, Titans
Won (didn't cover): Pats, Redskins,
Push: (none)
Lost (covered): Jets, Niners
Lost (didn't cover): Panthers, Falcons, Packers, Lions, Ravens, Browns, Bucs, Jags, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Colts
Eagles 28-23 Panthers
This was a good game, two good teams going at it. Thought Cam made some weird passes, he wasn't as crisp as he could've been but I was still generally impressed with the Panthers on both sides of the ball. Thought the Eagles were even better, a really good win for them. The Panthers were fine but their limitations show against good teams.
Packers 10-23 Vikings
I was watching this game when Rodgers got hit and I was kinda shocked that there wasn't a flag; I was similarly shocked when came up gimpy and stayed gimpy, I fully expected him to come back out til they carted him off. You knew the Pack was in trouble when even the defense seemed out of sorts for a while. The Vikings were good enough to win but you gotta feel like Rodgers would've pulled the game out. Rodgers has been covering up a rickety offensive line, gonna be tough for a backup to get up to speed; that said, I was reasonably impressed with backup QB Hundley: he scrambles and thinks on his feet like Rodgers, I think he's got a shot at being pretty good. But it'll take at least a few weeks for Hundley to turn into something, so for now the Vikings are the team to beat in the NFC North.
Browns 17-33 Texans
This game was over pretty quick. Fun to watch Deshaun Watson, though, that guy's a for-real badass. The Browns benched DeShone Kizer and now they have to go back to him. Yipes! Didn't think it could get worse for them but it has. The Texans, on the other hand, finally got some offense going and even though they've taken some hits on defense, looks like they're still the team to beat in the AFC South.
Steelers 19-13 Chiefs
The Steelers finally figured out to stop relying on Roethliesberger and get Le'veon Bell going. And the pass rush got after Alex Smith, making him look like the old time Alex Smith. If the Steelers can keep this game plan going, perhaps they can get back to the top of the table in the AFC, but its still a work in progress. The Chiefs had looked pretty unstoppable until this game, but I'm going with the notion that they just can't beat the Steelers. I still think the Chiefs are the best in the AFC.
Giants 23-10 Broncos
The Giants can't be as bad as they've looked so far, right? Well, I wasn't convinced of that but they looked pretty strong on both sides in Denver the other night. The Broncos on the other hand still look lost on offense and I have no idea why the D couldn't stop the Eli attack. Oh well. The Giants are still out of it, still playing for a draft pick, but don't be surprised if they accidentally win a few games along the way. Not sure what to make of the Broncos, I think they're a middle of the road team that could figure it out by the end (but I have less and less faith that they will).
Other results (surprising):
Bears 27-24 (OT) Ravens
The Ravens still have a good defense and not much offense but they should still beat a rookie QB, rookie RB at home, right? Guess not. The Bears have nowhere to go but up and they'll be a fun team that might win a few games.
Lions 38-52 Saints
As the score for this went by on the ticker at one point the Saints had 38 points and Brees had like 120 yards passing....wtf? These are not defensive squads, this is clearly a toss-away game.
Dolphins 20-17 Falcons
The Falcons have now dropped two non-conference home games in a row? That's not good. They should be dominating on their home field, clearly they still have to get used to a new offensive coordinator. The Dolphins are the AFC Redskins: they're actually pretty good when they're not going out of their way to look bad. I'm not saying they're good, I'm just saying they're not as bad as they look most of the time.
Other results (not so surprising):
Pats 24-17 Jets
Yeah, the Pats didn't dominate but they don't always dominate and division games can go sideways at any time. This game will be forever remembered (seriously, this one will hang around for a while) for the non-TD of Seferian-Jenkins (how does bobbling the ball a little bit equal a fumble? And how does coming down cleanly with the ball equal a touchback?). The Jets, Dolphins, Bills are all fairly similar teams and it kinda feels like the Pats are ever so slowly drifting back to them.
Niners 24-26 Redskins
I caught the last few minutes of this and I gotta say the Redskins deserved to lose (though I can't say the Niners deserved to win).
Bucs 33-38 Cards
Two teams with all defense and no offense (is that really even true any more of either of these teams?) ended up topping 70 points on the board? No, they're both just lame.
Rams 27-17 Jags
The Jags need a QB badly--okay here's the test case: could they use Kaepernick? Couldn't be worse than Bortles but does he make them competitive in that division? Maybe. The Rams are good and getting gooder each week.
Chargers 17-16 Raiders
Chargers finally win a game late instead of losing one. Not inconceivable that the Chargers are still in the playoff hunt. Not so for the Raiders, who have looked pretty awful for 4 straight weeks (71 points in first two games, 53 games in the last four). Coming into the season the Raiders were everyone's favorite but looking back on it, why? They're not particularly strong at any phase of the game and if Carr is hurt, they become a lower half of the league kinda team.
Colts 22-36 Titans
Looks like it took the Titans a while to get going but this score looks about right.
Won (covered): Eagles, Dolphins, Vikings, Saints, Bears, Texans, Cards, Rams, Steelers, Chargers, Giants, Titans
Won (didn't cover): Pats, Redskins,
Push: (none)
Lost (covered): Jets, Niners
Lost (didn't cover): Panthers, Falcons, Packers, Lions, Ravens, Browns, Bucs, Jags, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Colts
Sunday, October 15, 2017
2017-18 NCAA Football (Week 7)
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (4) Georgia, (6) TCU, (9) Ohio State, (16) Oklahoma State, (18) South Florida, (20) North Carolina State, (21) Michigan State, (22) Central Florida, (23) Stanford,
Got it done but did not impress
(7) Wisconsin. Eking a victory at home to Purdue is not a good look for a top ten squad.
(11) Miami. Is it rude to suggest that a team called the Hurricanes should have an advantage playing in the rain? Felt like this game should've been theirs and they waited til the last minute to claim it.
(12) Oklahoma. If you'd said at the beginning of the year that OU would struggle in Austin but pull out the W, that would've seemed just fine. But 6 weeks in, we've seen enough of Texas to know that they're not so good this year and enough of Oklahoma to think that they should've dominated this game early. Not impressive.
(13) Southern Cal. I watched this game and I generally thought Utah was the better team but didn't finish it off. There was a moment late: Utah scores under a minute to go, lines up for two instead of tying the game, then USC takes their last time out--I thought that would've been a great moment for Utah to come back out with the kicking unit and take the tie. But they went for two, came up short, let USC off the hook. USC pulled it together in the second half and I respect that but they were lesser team for most of this game.
(17) Michigan. Going to overtime to beat Indiana at home is not filling the Wolverine faithful with a lot of confidence. Yes, IU does have a weird knack for scoring points but there's no way Michigan should've let the Hoosiers into this game.
Not so good
(2) Clemson. Wow, this is the shocker of the year! Clemson looked to be on a steady glide path back to the final four and Syracuse looked like nothing special at all. I figured on a Friday night, the Tigers would bring their A game for the TV crowd and pummel the Orange. Not so much. This is a bad loss for Clemson and with Florida State and Louisville flailing, there's not many opportunities left for them to make a statement.
(5) Washington. Hmmm, can't get it done at Arizona State, huh? I was wary of Washington, haven't seen them actually do much this year though they had a good chance at being the last man standing. The PAC is in flux though so there's still a shot for the Huskies to pull it together and get it done.
(8) Washington State. I watched Cal earlier this year and I kinda liked their QB and their vibe but I figured they were a year away from making much of a noise. As for Wash State, I've generally been impressed with their play so far and figured they had a good shot at winning the PAC. The PAC kinda got turned upside down this weekend, now it looks like everyone is in play again. Even Cal.
(10) Auburn. I had a feeling LSU would play them close but I thought Auburn would pull it out. They did not. They still have Georgia and Alabama ahead, those are their opportunities to get back in the race.
(19) San Diego State. Dang, they got drilled at home by an unranked Boise State squad.
(24) Texas Tech. Getting outrun by West Virginia on the road is pretty much a Bad Beat. (I'm guessing the Mountaineers will be taking over the 24 spot next week?)
(25) Navy. Still can't win in Memphis.
Next week's notable games:
(19) Michigan @ (2) Penn State
(11) Southern Cal @ (13) Notre Dame
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (4) Georgia, (6) TCU, (9) Ohio State, (16) Oklahoma State, (18) South Florida, (20) North Carolina State, (21) Michigan State, (22) Central Florida, (23) Stanford,
Got it done but did not impress
(7) Wisconsin. Eking a victory at home to Purdue is not a good look for a top ten squad.
(11) Miami. Is it rude to suggest that a team called the Hurricanes should have an advantage playing in the rain? Felt like this game should've been theirs and they waited til the last minute to claim it.
(12) Oklahoma. If you'd said at the beginning of the year that OU would struggle in Austin but pull out the W, that would've seemed just fine. But 6 weeks in, we've seen enough of Texas to know that they're not so good this year and enough of Oklahoma to think that they should've dominated this game early. Not impressive.
(13) Southern Cal. I watched this game and I generally thought Utah was the better team but didn't finish it off. There was a moment late: Utah scores under a minute to go, lines up for two instead of tying the game, then USC takes their last time out--I thought that would've been a great moment for Utah to come back out with the kicking unit and take the tie. But they went for two, came up short, let USC off the hook. USC pulled it together in the second half and I respect that but they were lesser team for most of this game.
(17) Michigan. Going to overtime to beat Indiana at home is not filling the Wolverine faithful with a lot of confidence. Yes, IU does have a weird knack for scoring points but there's no way Michigan should've let the Hoosiers into this game.
Not so good
(2) Clemson. Wow, this is the shocker of the year! Clemson looked to be on a steady glide path back to the final four and Syracuse looked like nothing special at all. I figured on a Friday night, the Tigers would bring their A game for the TV crowd and pummel the Orange. Not so much. This is a bad loss for Clemson and with Florida State and Louisville flailing, there's not many opportunities left for them to make a statement.
(5) Washington. Hmmm, can't get it done at Arizona State, huh? I was wary of Washington, haven't seen them actually do much this year though they had a good chance at being the last man standing. The PAC is in flux though so there's still a shot for the Huskies to pull it together and get it done.
(8) Washington State. I watched Cal earlier this year and I kinda liked their QB and their vibe but I figured they were a year away from making much of a noise. As for Wash State, I've generally been impressed with their play so far and figured they had a good shot at winning the PAC. The PAC kinda got turned upside down this weekend, now it looks like everyone is in play again. Even Cal.
(10) Auburn. I had a feeling LSU would play them close but I thought Auburn would pull it out. They did not. They still have Georgia and Alabama ahead, those are their opportunities to get back in the race.
(19) San Diego State. Dang, they got drilled at home by an unranked Boise State squad.
(24) Texas Tech. Getting outrun by West Virginia on the road is pretty much a Bad Beat. (I'm guessing the Mountaineers will be taking over the 24 spot next week?)
(25) Navy. Still can't win in Memphis.
Next week's notable games:
(19) Michigan @ (2) Penn State
(11) Southern Cal @ (13) Notre Dame
Saturday, October 14, 2017
2017-18 NBA Predictions
MVP
Westbrook (Thunder), Harden (Rockets), Paul (Rockets), Butler (Wolves) and Towns (Wolves) all got paired with teammates that would seem likely to diminish their MVP credentials. While Lebron (Cavs) got even more limelight for himself, Blake Griffin (Clippers) has more burden to shoulder, Giannis (Bucks) is still the man on his team, and I think Kawhi (Spurs) has a big year ahead. Some edgy choices could be Jokic (Nuggets), Wall (Wizards), Kemba (Hornets) and don't be surprised if Lonzo (Lakers) gets some love and I'm curious to see how Porzingis (Knicks) blows up.
The talk is that Lebron is hot to win another MVP and though everyone says that every year, I think he's got a good shot this time. As the class of clear candidates dwindles, unless someone emerges as an obvious winner, I think the vote tends toward Lebron.
Rookie of the Year
In addition to the 2017 draft picks that will debut this year, there are a handful of notable picks from previous drafts that should debut this year as well. 2016: Simmons (Sixers), Yabusele (Celtics), Korkmaz (Sixers), Zhou Qi (Rockets), Zizic (Cavs), Zagorac (Grizzlies), Nader (Celtics); 2015: Dakari Johnson (Thunder), Osman (Cavs); 2014: Bogdanovic (Kings). And there are always another handful of undrafted rookies that will appear.
There are different ways that rookies can bust out. Some guys will clearly show themselves to be top quality NBA talent regardless of their position, some guys will make overwhelming contributions to bad teams, some will be reliable rotation players right away, some will pile up highlights without necessarily proving themselves to be worthy rotation guys. Personally I think the ROY Award is a forward-looking rather than backward-looking award meaning that I'm more interested in finding which players show themselves to be better for the future as opposed to which rookie just had the best season; so for example, I would've chosen Embiid (Sixers) over Brogdon (Bucks) last year. Yes, Brogdon had a fuller season, played more games, piled up more stats, contributed more to his team; but, who cares? Brogdon didn't make the All-NBA team, didn't lead the league in anything, didn't guide his team deep in the playoffs, so what difference does it make that he played more games than Embiid? When Embiid was on the court he showed me that he has a greater potential to be a great player than Brogdon (I like Brogdon and he had a hell of a year, he's not a bad choice), so I would've awarded the ROY to Embiid.
I'd say the clear favorites are Simmons (Sixers), Bogdanovic (Kings), Ball (Lakers), Fox (Kings), Isaac (Magic), Smith (Mavs), Monk (Hornets), Mitchell (Jazz), and of course everyone has their eye on Kuzma (Lakers). I would also add Jackson (Suns), who I thought was the best pure prospect in this draft, and Tatum (Celtics), who probably won't get votes but I expect him to be an important contributor on a top team. And the crazy long shots I got my eye on are Ivan Rabb (Grizzlies) because I think he could be such a perfect fit that he's kinda of a badass by year's end and Zhou Qi (Rockets), simply because I'm intrigued by the wide variance of opinions on his talent going into last year's draft.
I'll take Simmons (Sixers). I think that kid is going to be the creamy center of an exciting young team and he'll take the Sixers however far they're gonna go. Getting to the free throw line will help him develop a jump shot.
Defensive Player of the Year
This category should still be dominated by the usual suspects: Gobert (Jazz), Deandre (Clippers), Draymond (Warriors), Kawhi (Spurs), Drummond (Pistons), Whiteside (Heat). If you're looking for a newcomer: Sefolosha (Jazz), Giannis (Bucks), MKG (Hornets), Noquiera (Raptors), wouldn't be surprised to see Davis (Pelicans) become more of a defense-first guy.
I think Kawhi will have a big year, I'll take him for DPOY.
6th Man of the Year
I looked over the guys last year that played the most minutes and had the most games played while starting less then half of their team's games. I think there's a pretty good chance that the 2017-18 6th Man winner comes from this list of players (and their current teams): Marcus Smart (Celtics), Eric Gordon (Rockets (2016-17 6th Man)), Brandon Ingram (Lakers), Allen Crabbe (Nets), PJ Tucker (Rockets), Wilson Chandler (Nuggets), Nik Stauskus (Sixers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Jamal Crawford (Wolves (2015-16 6th Man)), Tim Hardaway (Knicks), Dario Saric (Sixers), James Johnson (Heat), Austin Rivers (Clippers), Jameer Nelson (Nuggets), Andre Iguodala (Warriors), Lou Williams (Clippers (2014-15 6th Man)), Jordan Clarkson (Lakers), Terry Rozier (Celtics), Jason Terry (Bucks), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Kelly Olynyk (Heat), Shaun Livingston (Warriors), Norman Powell (Raptors), Sam Dekker (Clippers), Kelly Oubre (Wizards), Jamal Murray (Nuggets), Enes Kanter (Knicks), Willy Hernangomez (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Sixers)
There hasn't been a rookie to win since Ben Gordon in 2005 and the only three rookies that seem like possibilities to me would be Jonathon Isaac (Magic), Malik Monk (Hornets), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz).
I think a lot of these guys will move to the starting lineup (Ingram, Crabbe, Hardaway, Saric, Rivers, Murray, either Kanter or Hernangomez, and maybe Cauley-Stein, possibly Isaac and Monk, too). Of the three previous winners I expect Eric Gordon to get lost in the shuffle, Crawford and Williams to have not particularly noteworthy seasons. Iguodala and Stevenson pretty much deserve it every year and have yet to win, I expect this year to be similar. I don't expect the Nuggets vets (Chandler, Nelson) or the Sixers youngsters (Stauskas, Anderson) to move the needle. I expect a lot of guys to play plenty of important minutes but never catch the eye: Clarkson (Lakers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Terry (Bucks), Olynyk (Heat), Powell (Raptor).
I'll go with Marcus Smart (Celtics). He'll play a lot, he'll be integral to the rotation, he'll make a lot of highlight plays and he'll be contributing to a very good squad but he probably won't start many games. (Terry Rozier (Celtics) is a good choice for all the same reasons; keep an eye on Mitchell (Jazz), he won't start but he'll play a lot, could really make them a better team and get consideration, I kinda like Oubre (Wizards) and Dekker (Clippers) to make worthwhile contributions off the bench too)
Coach of the Year
The season could go so many ways, its hard to tell which coaches will make the biggest contributions (and who will get the credit). So I'll pick a candidate from each conference.
If the Nuggets make a big move this year it'll be based on how Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles the various lineups he could field. If he's got a deft touch, the Nuggets could be the big surprise of the West.
Likewise for Steve Clifford (Hornets) in the East. The Hornets are a bizarre collection of players but if Coach Cliff can get the pieces to cohere, the Hornets might be way better than they ought to be.
Executive of the Year
This is a dual between Sam Presti (Thunder) and Danny Ainge (Celtics). Presti pulled off two of the most amazing trades in recent memory in a span of two months! (Personally I think the second trade was unnecessary and could shatter the team, but we'll see) If the Thunder are as good as they can be, I don't see how anyone other than Presti wins this. That said, Ainge pulled off a hell of a trade himself and is fielding a roster entirely of his own making. If the Celtics finish 1st in the East (which I think they will), a lot of the credit has to go to the fine roster construction of Danny Ainge.
Post-Season Prediction
Celtics over Pistons; Warriors over Jazz
Raptors over Hornets; Thunder over Wolves
Cavs over Bucks; Rockets over Clippers
Wizards over Heat; Spurs over Nuggets
Celtics over Wizards (in 7); Warriors over Spurs (in 7)
Cavs over Raptors (in 5); Thunder over Rockets (in 6)
Cavs over Celtics (in 6); Warriors over Thunder (in 7)
Warriors over Cavs in 5
Westbrook (Thunder), Harden (Rockets), Paul (Rockets), Butler (Wolves) and Towns (Wolves) all got paired with teammates that would seem likely to diminish their MVP credentials. While Lebron (Cavs) got even more limelight for himself, Blake Griffin (Clippers) has more burden to shoulder, Giannis (Bucks) is still the man on his team, and I think Kawhi (Spurs) has a big year ahead. Some edgy choices could be Jokic (Nuggets), Wall (Wizards), Kemba (Hornets) and don't be surprised if Lonzo (Lakers) gets some love and I'm curious to see how Porzingis (Knicks) blows up.
The talk is that Lebron is hot to win another MVP and though everyone says that every year, I think he's got a good shot this time. As the class of clear candidates dwindles, unless someone emerges as an obvious winner, I think the vote tends toward Lebron.
Rookie of the Year
In addition to the 2017 draft picks that will debut this year, there are a handful of notable picks from previous drafts that should debut this year as well. 2016: Simmons (Sixers), Yabusele (Celtics), Korkmaz (Sixers), Zhou Qi (Rockets), Zizic (Cavs), Zagorac (Grizzlies), Nader (Celtics); 2015: Dakari Johnson (Thunder), Osman (Cavs); 2014: Bogdanovic (Kings). And there are always another handful of undrafted rookies that will appear.
There are different ways that rookies can bust out. Some guys will clearly show themselves to be top quality NBA talent regardless of their position, some guys will make overwhelming contributions to bad teams, some will be reliable rotation players right away, some will pile up highlights without necessarily proving themselves to be worthy rotation guys. Personally I think the ROY Award is a forward-looking rather than backward-looking award meaning that I'm more interested in finding which players show themselves to be better for the future as opposed to which rookie just had the best season; so for example, I would've chosen Embiid (Sixers) over Brogdon (Bucks) last year. Yes, Brogdon had a fuller season, played more games, piled up more stats, contributed more to his team; but, who cares? Brogdon didn't make the All-NBA team, didn't lead the league in anything, didn't guide his team deep in the playoffs, so what difference does it make that he played more games than Embiid? When Embiid was on the court he showed me that he has a greater potential to be a great player than Brogdon (I like Brogdon and he had a hell of a year, he's not a bad choice), so I would've awarded the ROY to Embiid.
I'd say the clear favorites are Simmons (Sixers), Bogdanovic (Kings), Ball (Lakers), Fox (Kings), Isaac (Magic), Smith (Mavs), Monk (Hornets), Mitchell (Jazz), and of course everyone has their eye on Kuzma (Lakers). I would also add Jackson (Suns), who I thought was the best pure prospect in this draft, and Tatum (Celtics), who probably won't get votes but I expect him to be an important contributor on a top team. And the crazy long shots I got my eye on are Ivan Rabb (Grizzlies) because I think he could be such a perfect fit that he's kinda of a badass by year's end and Zhou Qi (Rockets), simply because I'm intrigued by the wide variance of opinions on his talent going into last year's draft.
I'll take Simmons (Sixers). I think that kid is going to be the creamy center of an exciting young team and he'll take the Sixers however far they're gonna go. Getting to the free throw line will help him develop a jump shot.
Defensive Player of the Year
This category should still be dominated by the usual suspects: Gobert (Jazz), Deandre (Clippers), Draymond (Warriors), Kawhi (Spurs), Drummond (Pistons), Whiteside (Heat). If you're looking for a newcomer: Sefolosha (Jazz), Giannis (Bucks), MKG (Hornets), Noquiera (Raptors), wouldn't be surprised to see Davis (Pelicans) become more of a defense-first guy.
I think Kawhi will have a big year, I'll take him for DPOY.
6th Man of the Year
I looked over the guys last year that played the most minutes and had the most games played while starting less then half of their team's games. I think there's a pretty good chance that the 2017-18 6th Man winner comes from this list of players (and their current teams): Marcus Smart (Celtics), Eric Gordon (Rockets (2016-17 6th Man)), Brandon Ingram (Lakers), Allen Crabbe (Nets), PJ Tucker (Rockets), Wilson Chandler (Nuggets), Nik Stauskus (Sixers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Jamal Crawford (Wolves (2015-16 6th Man)), Tim Hardaway (Knicks), Dario Saric (Sixers), James Johnson (Heat), Austin Rivers (Clippers), Jameer Nelson (Nuggets), Andre Iguodala (Warriors), Lou Williams (Clippers (2014-15 6th Man)), Jordan Clarkson (Lakers), Terry Rozier (Celtics), Jason Terry (Bucks), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Kelly Olynyk (Heat), Shaun Livingston (Warriors), Norman Powell (Raptors), Sam Dekker (Clippers), Kelly Oubre (Wizards), Jamal Murray (Nuggets), Enes Kanter (Knicks), Willy Hernangomez (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Sixers)
There hasn't been a rookie to win since Ben Gordon in 2005 and the only three rookies that seem like possibilities to me would be Jonathon Isaac (Magic), Malik Monk (Hornets), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz).
I think a lot of these guys will move to the starting lineup (Ingram, Crabbe, Hardaway, Saric, Rivers, Murray, either Kanter or Hernangomez, and maybe Cauley-Stein, possibly Isaac and Monk, too). Of the three previous winners I expect Eric Gordon to get lost in the shuffle, Crawford and Williams to have not particularly noteworthy seasons. Iguodala and Stevenson pretty much deserve it every year and have yet to win, I expect this year to be similar. I don't expect the Nuggets vets (Chandler, Nelson) or the Sixers youngsters (Stauskas, Anderson) to move the needle. I expect a lot of guys to play plenty of important minutes but never catch the eye: Clarkson (Lakers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Terry (Bucks), Olynyk (Heat), Powell (Raptor).
I'll go with Marcus Smart (Celtics). He'll play a lot, he'll be integral to the rotation, he'll make a lot of highlight plays and he'll be contributing to a very good squad but he probably won't start many games. (Terry Rozier (Celtics) is a good choice for all the same reasons; keep an eye on Mitchell (Jazz), he won't start but he'll play a lot, could really make them a better team and get consideration, I kinda like Oubre (Wizards) and Dekker (Clippers) to make worthwhile contributions off the bench too)
Coach of the Year
The season could go so many ways, its hard to tell which coaches will make the biggest contributions (and who will get the credit). So I'll pick a candidate from each conference.
If the Nuggets make a big move this year it'll be based on how Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles the various lineups he could field. If he's got a deft touch, the Nuggets could be the big surprise of the West.
Likewise for Steve Clifford (Hornets) in the East. The Hornets are a bizarre collection of players but if Coach Cliff can get the pieces to cohere, the Hornets might be way better than they ought to be.
Executive of the Year
This is a dual between Sam Presti (Thunder) and Danny Ainge (Celtics). Presti pulled off two of the most amazing trades in recent memory in a span of two months! (Personally I think the second trade was unnecessary and could shatter the team, but we'll see) If the Thunder are as good as they can be, I don't see how anyone other than Presti wins this. That said, Ainge pulled off a hell of a trade himself and is fielding a roster entirely of his own making. If the Celtics finish 1st in the East (which I think they will), a lot of the credit has to go to the fine roster construction of Danny Ainge.
Post-Season Prediction
Celtics over Pistons; Warriors over Jazz
Raptors over Hornets; Thunder over Wolves
Cavs over Bucks; Rockets over Clippers
Wizards over Heat; Spurs over Nuggets
Celtics over Wizards (in 7); Warriors over Spurs (in 7)
Cavs over Raptors (in 5); Thunder over Rockets (in 6)
Cavs over Celtics (in 6); Warriors over Thunder (in 7)
Warriors over Cavs in 5
2017-18 NBA Preview: Pacific Division
Warriors
PG Curry, SG Thompson, SF Durant, PF Draymond, C Pachulia
Bench: PG Livingston, SG Nick Young/Casspi, SF Iguodala, PF West, C Magee
Injuries will undoubtedly be worse this year than previous years but the depth is better than previous years too, so no worries. Strangely enough I think letting Ian Clark and James McAdoo go was not good: grooming youngsters in a culture of winning is invaluable. That said, for the foreseeable future this is still easily the best team in the league. For the regular season I think they'll be better than last year. I think they win 70 games and march through the playoffs.
Clippers
PG Rivers, SG Beverley, SF Gallinari, PF Griffin, C Jordan
Bench: PG Teodosic, SG Williams, SF Wesley Johnson/Dekker, PF Harrell/Brice Johnson, C Reed
Last year the Clippers had 9 guys that played 1200 minutes, only Jordan, Griffin and Rivers remain (and is anyone expecting Griffin to play 2000 minutes again this year?). That is still a pretty good core and I generally like this off-season's additions (they redeemed the outgoing stars with a surprisingly strong collection of newcomers), but this is clearly still a team in flux. I think the depth is better than the Clippers have perhaps ever had but Coach Doc is a guy that rides his stars, not a nimble manager of his roster: is he gonna make the most of Teodosic or Dekker or Harrell, for example? (Magic 8 Ball says 'Outlook not so good') I think the Clippers make the playoffs--and may have some post-season success--but during the regular season, W's will be harder to come by, it'll take them a while to coalesce. I think they win 43 games, which puts them in the fight for 6th place in the West.
Kings
PG Fox, SG Hield, SF Temple, PF Labissierie, C Cauley-Stein
Bench: PG Hill, SG Frank Mason/Bogdanovic, SF Vince Carter/Justin Jackson, PF Randolph, C Koufos/Papagiannis
I was astounded at how many good moves the Kings made this summer. Yeah, its still a ragtag bunch but that just gives Coach Joerger that much more control of the team (especially since he was able to bring in Zeebo and Vince to lay down the law). This season is all about how he inculcates the plethora of youngsters. I suspect early on it'll be rough sledding but by the end of the year I can see this team actually being pretty good (or a total grease fire, that's just how the league works). Bringing in George Hill and then bringing him off the bench may seem counter intuitive but I'd suggest starting Fox right away, he's the future, he may as well be the present too; and empowering Hill to mold that 2nd unit to his whims will be good for the development of the rest of the newbies. (I'd like to see Bogdanovic get a lot of playing time, too, if that kid is good he could be the franchise, might as well find out now) Man, figuring how this rotation works will be an all-year project. I think they'll win 34 games and finish strong.
Lakers
PG Ball, SG Caldwell-Pope, SF Deng, PF Nance, C Lopez
Bench: PG Ennis, SG Ingram/Clarkson/Kuzma, SF Randall/Brewer, PF Zubac, C Bogut/Zimmerman
There's a lot of intriguing talent here but they're still another year or two (and a Deng dump) away from being ready to make noise (by which I mean, luring in the next batch of free agents to lift them back to relevance). It is an interesting mix of veterans and young talent that's still growing. Not sure how it all works out, it'll take a while to get the rotation in place. Some real highs and lows ahead for this team: I suspect they'll have weeks where they look amazing and weeks where they look like the worst team in the league. I like them to be pretty good by the end of the year, I think they'll win 31 games.
Suns
PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Warren, PF Chriss, C Chandler
Bench: PG Ulis, SG Millsap, SF Josh Jackson/Dudley, PF Bender, C Len/Williams
The Suns have a bunch of interesting young players, no reason to not play them as much as they can. Brandon Knight is out for the year, the depth is not great, the experience is virtually nil and I wouldn't be surprised to see them move Chandler at the deadline. I do think they'll score points, they've got plenty of guys that can fill it up, but their defensive concepts will be lackluster. Play the kids, get them minutes, collect your lottery pick and go from there. They'll be fun but they won't win much. I think they'll win 20 games.
PG Curry, SG Thompson, SF Durant, PF Draymond, C Pachulia
Bench: PG Livingston, SG Nick Young/Casspi, SF Iguodala, PF West, C Magee
Injuries will undoubtedly be worse this year than previous years but the depth is better than previous years too, so no worries. Strangely enough I think letting Ian Clark and James McAdoo go was not good: grooming youngsters in a culture of winning is invaluable. That said, for the foreseeable future this is still easily the best team in the league. For the regular season I think they'll be better than last year. I think they win 70 games and march through the playoffs.
Clippers
PG Rivers, SG Beverley, SF Gallinari, PF Griffin, C Jordan
Bench: PG Teodosic, SG Williams, SF Wesley Johnson/Dekker, PF Harrell/Brice Johnson, C Reed
Last year the Clippers had 9 guys that played 1200 minutes, only Jordan, Griffin and Rivers remain (and is anyone expecting Griffin to play 2000 minutes again this year?). That is still a pretty good core and I generally like this off-season's additions (they redeemed the outgoing stars with a surprisingly strong collection of newcomers), but this is clearly still a team in flux. I think the depth is better than the Clippers have perhaps ever had but Coach Doc is a guy that rides his stars, not a nimble manager of his roster: is he gonna make the most of Teodosic or Dekker or Harrell, for example? (Magic 8 Ball says 'Outlook not so good') I think the Clippers make the playoffs--and may have some post-season success--but during the regular season, W's will be harder to come by, it'll take them a while to coalesce. I think they win 43 games, which puts them in the fight for 6th place in the West.
Kings
PG Fox, SG Hield, SF Temple, PF Labissierie, C Cauley-Stein
Bench: PG Hill, SG Frank Mason/Bogdanovic, SF Vince Carter/Justin Jackson, PF Randolph, C Koufos/Papagiannis
I was astounded at how many good moves the Kings made this summer. Yeah, its still a ragtag bunch but that just gives Coach Joerger that much more control of the team (especially since he was able to bring in Zeebo and Vince to lay down the law). This season is all about how he inculcates the plethora of youngsters. I suspect early on it'll be rough sledding but by the end of the year I can see this team actually being pretty good (or a total grease fire, that's just how the league works). Bringing in George Hill and then bringing him off the bench may seem counter intuitive but I'd suggest starting Fox right away, he's the future, he may as well be the present too; and empowering Hill to mold that 2nd unit to his whims will be good for the development of the rest of the newbies. (I'd like to see Bogdanovic get a lot of playing time, too, if that kid is good he could be the franchise, might as well find out now) Man, figuring how this rotation works will be an all-year project. I think they'll win 34 games and finish strong.
Lakers
PG Ball, SG Caldwell-Pope, SF Deng, PF Nance, C Lopez
Bench: PG Ennis, SG Ingram/Clarkson/Kuzma, SF Randall/Brewer, PF Zubac, C Bogut/Zimmerman
There's a lot of intriguing talent here but they're still another year or two (and a Deng dump) away from being ready to make noise (by which I mean, luring in the next batch of free agents to lift them back to relevance). It is an interesting mix of veterans and young talent that's still growing. Not sure how it all works out, it'll take a while to get the rotation in place. Some real highs and lows ahead for this team: I suspect they'll have weeks where they look amazing and weeks where they look like the worst team in the league. I like them to be pretty good by the end of the year, I think they'll win 31 games.
Suns
PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Warren, PF Chriss, C Chandler
Bench: PG Ulis, SG Millsap, SF Josh Jackson/Dudley, PF Bender, C Len/Williams
The Suns have a bunch of interesting young players, no reason to not play them as much as they can. Brandon Knight is out for the year, the depth is not great, the experience is virtually nil and I wouldn't be surprised to see them move Chandler at the deadline. I do think they'll score points, they've got plenty of guys that can fill it up, but their defensive concepts will be lackluster. Play the kids, get them minutes, collect your lottery pick and go from there. They'll be fun but they won't win much. I think they'll win 20 games.
2017-18 NBA Preview: Northwest Division
Thunder
PG Westbrook, SG George, SF Roberson, PF Melo, C Adams
Bench: PG Felton/Canaan, SG Abrines/Christon, SF Patterson/Singler, PF Grant, C Dakari
Personally I wasn't a huge fan of adding Melo; yes, I understand you'd rather have one great player rather than two okay players but when you've already got Westbrook doing 90% of the offense, I'd rather have Kanter and McDermott, I'd rather have two more braves in support than another chief to compete with my big dog. I thought adding Paul George (steal of the century!) was a brilliant move and just the thing that OKC needed to take a step forward; I think PG understands that this is Westbrook's team and I think he's cool with that. Great players either clash or fall into mutual respect. I think George and Westbrook have the mutual respect. Melo on the other hand....crashes the party. I think the the Kanter/Adams platoon was a perfect fit for the Westbrook/George offense, I love bringing in Patrick Patterson (very team friendly deal too!) and shoring up the bench by adding Ray Felton. I liked a Roberson/McDermott platoon, for a mix of offense and defense. I thought bringing in George alone vaulted them past the Spurs and probably the Rockets too. But adding Melo only complicates that. Now they've got no size off the bench (unless Dakari Johnson takes a big step forward) and less scoring on the wings (unless you think Kyle Singler is gonna make a big comeback, which I do not). But adding Melo adds wing scoring, right? Not really. If he plays with the Westbrook line then he only gets the ball when Westbrook gives it to him; you can expect McDermott to live with that, you cannot expect Melo to live with that. I still like this team to finish 2nd in the West but if you think swapping Melo for Kanter (who fit perfectly with Westbrook!) is a positive, I'm not convinced.
Wolves
PG Teague, SG Wiggins, SF Butler, PF Gibson, C Townes
Bench: PG Crawford/Jones, SG Muhammad, SF Bjelica, PF Dieng, C Aldrich/Patton
Last year when the Wolves brought in Coach Thibodeau I had my doubts; the previous year had been a fun teamwork-oriented season and while they sucked on the court, they looked like a crew that was growing together and having fun. The Thibs mindset is constant rugged hard work and defensive intensity (which clearly didn't take hold as the Wolves sucked on defense last year). This summer the Wolves pulled off a coup picking up Jimmy Butler for the oft-injured Zach LaVine and the disappointing Kris Dunn; or did they? Are we sure that LaVine wasn't run into the ground by Thibs? Are we sure that Thibs didn't give up too quick on Dunn? My suggestions at the time of the Thibs hiring was move Sam Mitchell (terrible coach but clearly liked by the players) upstairs, bring back Garnett (useless on the court but clearly respected by the players) for one more year in uniform and bring in Jeff Hornacek (smart, no-nonsense but not a hardass) to teach the gang how to play. By turning the team over to Thibs, you've made it Thibs's team not the team's team (kinda reminds me of Pitino in Boston, not the model you want to follow!). This summer they stocked up on old Thibs soldiers (Gibson, Aaron Brooks to go with Butler), basically traded Rubio for Teague (an unnecessary sideways move to my eye), and moved Bjelica, Jones and Dieng further down the depth chart without really adding depth. I dunno, man, the more I look at this the more I don't like the moves they've made since drafting Dunn in June 2016. They kept the shell but lost the heart, I think its a dangerous thing to do. But none of that matters really, its all about Towns. If he keeps up the pace he had last year then the Wolves will be vastly improved. If they don't make the playoffs this will be a disappointing campaign. 42 wins, 7th in the West.
Nuggets
PG Mudiay, SG Harris, SF Barton, PF Jokic, C Millsap
Bench: PG Nelson/Beasley, SG Murray, SF Chandler/Lyles, PF Faried/Hernangomez, C Plumlee
So much unproven talent, so many guys without clear positions, so many players I like but don't yet love, I can't figure out how to put together a lineup. Is Millsap the center or Jokic? Do you bring Harris off the bench or Barton? Can Murray play the PG? How long do they give Mudiay some run? Where does Faried fit into the lineup? And where is the playing time for Beasley and Lyles and Hernangomez? (There's pretty much no way Tyler Lydon sees the floor this year, right?) And though they're aiming for the playoffs this year, I'd keep the youth movement going: if they can figure out how to jettison Chandler, Arthur and Faried, I'd say go for it even if just brings back more youth and/or draft picks (hmmmmm.....doesn't Doc's Clippers seem like the perfect dumping ground for Chandler? And did you realize that Jokic has the smallest paycheck on this squad? That'll change next summer, I reckon). This seems like a strangely easy call: if the Nuggets are in the playoffs, Mike Malone is pretty much first choice for Coach of the Year, right? How he juggles this team will make or break the season for the Nuggets--probably next season too! I like the talent, I don't know how it all works, they've got trades to make too, and don't forget their unique home court advantage. I think they'll make the playoffs and win 46 games (but it could all go off the rails tragically too).
Jazz
PG: Rubio, SG Ingles, SF Hood, PF Favors, C Gobert
Bench: PG Mitchell/Exum/Neto, SG Johnson/Burks, SF Sefelosha/Jerebko, PF Udoh/Bolomboy, C Tony Bradley
Hmmmmm....I like the coach, I like the culture, I like depth but I'd like it all better if they'd been able to keep Hayward (and even Lyles, for that matter). Rubio and Exum are both fine distributors and defenders but neither of them can score and you've got to give that playing time to Mitchell soon enough. Behind Gobert they'll be needing to get minutes from Bradley (rookie) or Bolomboy (2nd year, basically a rookie) or Udoh (hasn't played in the NBA in a few years now). Favors is injury-prone, Sefelosha and Jerebko are not reliable scorers, doesn't feel like they have any trade options. The Jazz will need a lot from Ingles, Hood and Alec Burks to make up for the loss of Hayward. Not impossible--again, I like the coach and the vibe and generally I'm in on these players--but this team is one injury away from disappearing completely. I have them winning 42 games and sneaking that 8th spot in the playoffs.
Blazers
PG Lillard, SG McCollum, SF Turner, PF Harkless, C Nurkic
Bench: PG Napier, SG Connaughton, SF Aminu/Leonard, PF Vonleah, C Davis
Every time I look at the Blazers I'm blown away at how far over the cap they are (and badly mortgaged for the future already) and yet this still doesn't feel like a playoff team to me. This is a team, though, that could be the big surprise of the league. They've grown together, they're gonna stay together, if Lillard and McCollum are lights out (and don't get hurt!), this team could blast through this division (Wolves, Nuggets and Jazz are hardly proven commodities). But I don't see it. I think the management has an eye toward shedding salary and at the slightest misstep, they'll be making trades--and those trades are going out, not coming in. This team is on a fine line, if they'll pull together and get lucky they could be really good; but I think its more likely this blows up and gets blown up. I think they win 40 games, missed the playoffs.
PG Westbrook, SG George, SF Roberson, PF Melo, C Adams
Bench: PG Felton/Canaan, SG Abrines/Christon, SF Patterson/Singler, PF Grant, C Dakari
Personally I wasn't a huge fan of adding Melo; yes, I understand you'd rather have one great player rather than two okay players but when you've already got Westbrook doing 90% of the offense, I'd rather have Kanter and McDermott, I'd rather have two more braves in support than another chief to compete with my big dog. I thought adding Paul George (steal of the century!) was a brilliant move and just the thing that OKC needed to take a step forward; I think PG understands that this is Westbrook's team and I think he's cool with that. Great players either clash or fall into mutual respect. I think George and Westbrook have the mutual respect. Melo on the other hand....crashes the party. I think the the Kanter/Adams platoon was a perfect fit for the Westbrook/George offense, I love bringing in Patrick Patterson (very team friendly deal too!) and shoring up the bench by adding Ray Felton. I liked a Roberson/McDermott platoon, for a mix of offense and defense. I thought bringing in George alone vaulted them past the Spurs and probably the Rockets too. But adding Melo only complicates that. Now they've got no size off the bench (unless Dakari Johnson takes a big step forward) and less scoring on the wings (unless you think Kyle Singler is gonna make a big comeback, which I do not). But adding Melo adds wing scoring, right? Not really. If he plays with the Westbrook line then he only gets the ball when Westbrook gives it to him; you can expect McDermott to live with that, you cannot expect Melo to live with that. I still like this team to finish 2nd in the West but if you think swapping Melo for Kanter (who fit perfectly with Westbrook!) is a positive, I'm not convinced.
Wolves
PG Teague, SG Wiggins, SF Butler, PF Gibson, C Townes
Bench: PG Crawford/Jones, SG Muhammad, SF Bjelica, PF Dieng, C Aldrich/Patton
Last year when the Wolves brought in Coach Thibodeau I had my doubts; the previous year had been a fun teamwork-oriented season and while they sucked on the court, they looked like a crew that was growing together and having fun. The Thibs mindset is constant rugged hard work and defensive intensity (which clearly didn't take hold as the Wolves sucked on defense last year). This summer the Wolves pulled off a coup picking up Jimmy Butler for the oft-injured Zach LaVine and the disappointing Kris Dunn; or did they? Are we sure that LaVine wasn't run into the ground by Thibs? Are we sure that Thibs didn't give up too quick on Dunn? My suggestions at the time of the Thibs hiring was move Sam Mitchell (terrible coach but clearly liked by the players) upstairs, bring back Garnett (useless on the court but clearly respected by the players) for one more year in uniform and bring in Jeff Hornacek (smart, no-nonsense but not a hardass) to teach the gang how to play. By turning the team over to Thibs, you've made it Thibs's team not the team's team (kinda reminds me of Pitino in Boston, not the model you want to follow!). This summer they stocked up on old Thibs soldiers (Gibson, Aaron Brooks to go with Butler), basically traded Rubio for Teague (an unnecessary sideways move to my eye), and moved Bjelica, Jones and Dieng further down the depth chart without really adding depth. I dunno, man, the more I look at this the more I don't like the moves they've made since drafting Dunn in June 2016. They kept the shell but lost the heart, I think its a dangerous thing to do. But none of that matters really, its all about Towns. If he keeps up the pace he had last year then the Wolves will be vastly improved. If they don't make the playoffs this will be a disappointing campaign. 42 wins, 7th in the West.
Nuggets
PG Mudiay, SG Harris, SF Barton, PF Jokic, C Millsap
Bench: PG Nelson/Beasley, SG Murray, SF Chandler/Lyles, PF Faried/Hernangomez, C Plumlee
So much unproven talent, so many guys without clear positions, so many players I like but don't yet love, I can't figure out how to put together a lineup. Is Millsap the center or Jokic? Do you bring Harris off the bench or Barton? Can Murray play the PG? How long do they give Mudiay some run? Where does Faried fit into the lineup? And where is the playing time for Beasley and Lyles and Hernangomez? (There's pretty much no way Tyler Lydon sees the floor this year, right?) And though they're aiming for the playoffs this year, I'd keep the youth movement going: if they can figure out how to jettison Chandler, Arthur and Faried, I'd say go for it even if just brings back more youth and/or draft picks (hmmmmm.....doesn't Doc's Clippers seem like the perfect dumping ground for Chandler? And did you realize that Jokic has the smallest paycheck on this squad? That'll change next summer, I reckon). This seems like a strangely easy call: if the Nuggets are in the playoffs, Mike Malone is pretty much first choice for Coach of the Year, right? How he juggles this team will make or break the season for the Nuggets--probably next season too! I like the talent, I don't know how it all works, they've got trades to make too, and don't forget their unique home court advantage. I think they'll make the playoffs and win 46 games (but it could all go off the rails tragically too).
Jazz
PG: Rubio, SG Ingles, SF Hood, PF Favors, C Gobert
Bench: PG Mitchell/Exum/Neto, SG Johnson/Burks, SF Sefelosha/Jerebko, PF Udoh/Bolomboy, C Tony Bradley
Hmmmmm....I like the coach, I like the culture, I like depth but I'd like it all better if they'd been able to keep Hayward (and even Lyles, for that matter). Rubio and Exum are both fine distributors and defenders but neither of them can score and you've got to give that playing time to Mitchell soon enough. Behind Gobert they'll be needing to get minutes from Bradley (rookie) or Bolomboy (2nd year, basically a rookie) or Udoh (hasn't played in the NBA in a few years now). Favors is injury-prone, Sefelosha and Jerebko are not reliable scorers, doesn't feel like they have any trade options. The Jazz will need a lot from Ingles, Hood and Alec Burks to make up for the loss of Hayward. Not impossible--again, I like the coach and the vibe and generally I'm in on these players--but this team is one injury away from disappearing completely. I have them winning 42 games and sneaking that 8th spot in the playoffs.
Blazers
PG Lillard, SG McCollum, SF Turner, PF Harkless, C Nurkic
Bench: PG Napier, SG Connaughton, SF Aminu/Leonard, PF Vonleah, C Davis
Every time I look at the Blazers I'm blown away at how far over the cap they are (and badly mortgaged for the future already) and yet this still doesn't feel like a playoff team to me. This is a team, though, that could be the big surprise of the league. They've grown together, they're gonna stay together, if Lillard and McCollum are lights out (and don't get hurt!), this team could blast through this division (Wolves, Nuggets and Jazz are hardly proven commodities). But I don't see it. I think the management has an eye toward shedding salary and at the slightest misstep, they'll be making trades--and those trades are going out, not coming in. This team is on a fine line, if they'll pull together and get lucky they could be really good; but I think its more likely this blows up and gets blown up. I think they win 40 games, missed the playoffs.
2017-18 NBA Preview: Southwest Division
Rockets
PG Paul, SG Harden, SF Anderson, PF Ariza, C Capela
Bench: SG Gordon, SF Tucker/Mbah a Moute, PF Black/Zhou Qi, C Nene/Onuaku
Another one of the numerous notable trades this summer netted the Rockets Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul to go alongside unstoppable scoring machine James Harden. Instantly hailed as a great move, it vaulted the Rockets into the discussion of teams that could go to battle with the Warriors. Ehhhh....I don't see it. I like CP as much as the next guy but I think he and Harden are a terrible combination: they both need the ball all the time and their personalities could not be more diametrically opposed. And if either of them gets hurt, there's no depth behind them (obviously they'd be hard to replace under any circumstances but this lack of depth is kinda scary). And all that said: Paul is getting older, getting more injury-prone and was never much of a presence in the post-season at his best. This is one those moves that seems like a no-brainer at the time but by next summer I think could look like a big ol' albatross. Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm sure they'll figure out how to co-exist but I don't think this makes them stronger in the post-season or the future. It'll be interesting to see what Paul gets out of Capela and I'm curious about Zhou Qi, a completely forgotten Chinese prospect who rocked up and down the 2016 mock draft boards (what if he's Porzingis?). In the end, I'll take them to finish 3rd in the West (and get drilled by OKC in the 2nd round) but I don't see them as a juggernaut in the making. I think they'll get 56 wins.
Spurs
PG Mills, SG Green, SF Kawhi, PF Aldridge, C Gasol
Bench: PG Murray/Parker, SG Forbes, SF Anderson, PF Gay, C Lauvergne
Every year we wonder if the Spurs can keep it going and every year they do even though we think they can't. If Kawhi gets hurt, this team will flounder but if he stays healthy I think they'll be their usual top quality selves. I don't know if Murray starts right away but I'd start Mills, letting Parker get in 15-20 minutes off the bench. Sounds like they're moving backwards but that looks pretty good to me. Aldridge has taken a lot of abuse lately but I still believe in him (the problem is his game was never Pop's game and vice versa), if he can carve out some space for himself he can still pile on points. Pau and Gay round out the veterans, Anderson and Forbes are the up-and-comers, I say pencil them in for 53 wins (and we'll call it a disappointment).
Pelicans
PG Rondo, SG Holliday, SF Allen , PF Davis, C Cousins
Bench: PG Crawford/Jackson, SG Clark/Miller/Moore, SF Cunningham/Hill, PF Diallo, C Ajinca/Ask
Okay, this is it for the Pelicans. They've got til February to figure out what to do with Cousins, which invariable will be trading him (don't ya think?). And if Cousins goes...*sigh*....Anthony Davis should go too. When they first drafted Davis they immediately went into win-now mode which unfortunately did not work and hamstrung their salary cap for years. I'd never suggest getting rid of a great player but even great players need some service and the Pelicans have failed to serve their great players. Now they have TWO great players neither of whom will flourish in what the Pelicans have built. Now is the time to get what they can for Cousins, get the best package possible for Davis (the Celtics still have plenty of worthwhile pieces), stretch Asik and start piling up draft picks to pack around Holliday....oh, wait, that sounds like a terrible idea. Man, the Cousins-Davis thing has to work or this disaster just keeps going. Oh well. Even with all the turmoil I still like the Pelicans to be marginally better. 38 wins.
Mavs
PG Smith, SG Barnes, SF Matthews, PF Nowitzki, C Nerlens
Bench: PG Farrell/Barea/Harris, SG Curry, SF McRoberts/Finney-Smith, PF Powell, C Withey
Why don't free agents want to play in Dallas? Cool city, Dirk's great, Coach Carlisle is outstanding, Cuban's a good owner, history of winning, good fans. Why are they still carrying JJ Barea and Devin Harris? Why is Jeff Withey the best big man they can get? And why did they have to play chicken with Nerlens to bring him back? Weird. Anyway, they've got a good coach, the PG is a rookie but I think he's gonna be really good (either Smith and Carlisle get along famously or they flat fucking hate each other, good fun either way), Nerlens and Powell should make a pretty good combo, and Dirk still has 1-2 good years left in him. I think this team could be kinda fun and if Smith is the deal then they could really take off; on the other hand, they could implode and be truly awful; along with the Pelicans I think they have the widest possible variance in the league. I like them to be slightly better than last year, 37 wins.
Grizzlies
PG Conley, SG Tyreke, SF Parsons, PF Gasol, C Wright
Bench: PG Chalmers/Harrison, SG Baldwin/Selden/Brooks/Zagorac, SF McLemore, PF Green/Ennis/Rabb, C Davis
I dunno, my gut feeling is the Conley-Gasol core is getting too old, Tyreke Evans and Chalmers only make them older, Parsons and Wright don't make them any more efficient and the raft of youngsters are kinda promising but not ready yet. It feels to me like a rebuild year, like its time to start salary dumping and accumulating draft picks. But if the vets stay healthy and the youngsters can get coached up, maybe this team coalesces into something. Hard to imagine the Grizzlies being bad but that seems more likely than them being good. I think they get 29 wins (and make at least one major trade this year).
PG Paul, SG Harden, SF Anderson, PF Ariza, C Capela
Bench: SG Gordon, SF Tucker/Mbah a Moute, PF Black/Zhou Qi, C Nene/Onuaku
Another one of the numerous notable trades this summer netted the Rockets Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul to go alongside unstoppable scoring machine James Harden. Instantly hailed as a great move, it vaulted the Rockets into the discussion of teams that could go to battle with the Warriors. Ehhhh....I don't see it. I like CP as much as the next guy but I think he and Harden are a terrible combination: they both need the ball all the time and their personalities could not be more diametrically opposed. And if either of them gets hurt, there's no depth behind them (obviously they'd be hard to replace under any circumstances but this lack of depth is kinda scary). And all that said: Paul is getting older, getting more injury-prone and was never much of a presence in the post-season at his best. This is one those moves that seems like a no-brainer at the time but by next summer I think could look like a big ol' albatross. Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm sure they'll figure out how to co-exist but I don't think this makes them stronger in the post-season or the future. It'll be interesting to see what Paul gets out of Capela and I'm curious about Zhou Qi, a completely forgotten Chinese prospect who rocked up and down the 2016 mock draft boards (what if he's Porzingis?). In the end, I'll take them to finish 3rd in the West (and get drilled by OKC in the 2nd round) but I don't see them as a juggernaut in the making. I think they'll get 56 wins.
Spurs
PG Mills, SG Green, SF Kawhi, PF Aldridge, C Gasol
Bench: PG Murray/Parker, SG Forbes, SF Anderson, PF Gay, C Lauvergne
Every year we wonder if the Spurs can keep it going and every year they do even though we think they can't. If Kawhi gets hurt, this team will flounder but if he stays healthy I think they'll be their usual top quality selves. I don't know if Murray starts right away but I'd start Mills, letting Parker get in 15-20 minutes off the bench. Sounds like they're moving backwards but that looks pretty good to me. Aldridge has taken a lot of abuse lately but I still believe in him (the problem is his game was never Pop's game and vice versa), if he can carve out some space for himself he can still pile on points. Pau and Gay round out the veterans, Anderson and Forbes are the up-and-comers, I say pencil them in for 53 wins (and we'll call it a disappointment).
Pelicans
PG Rondo, SG Holliday, SF Allen , PF Davis, C Cousins
Bench: PG Crawford/Jackson, SG Clark/Miller/Moore, SF Cunningham/Hill, PF Diallo, C Ajinca/Ask
Okay, this is it for the Pelicans. They've got til February to figure out what to do with Cousins, which invariable will be trading him (don't ya think?). And if Cousins goes...*sigh*....Anthony Davis should go too. When they first drafted Davis they immediately went into win-now mode which unfortunately did not work and hamstrung their salary cap for years. I'd never suggest getting rid of a great player but even great players need some service and the Pelicans have failed to serve their great players. Now they have TWO great players neither of whom will flourish in what the Pelicans have built. Now is the time to get what they can for Cousins, get the best package possible for Davis (the Celtics still have plenty of worthwhile pieces), stretch Asik and start piling up draft picks to pack around Holliday....oh, wait, that sounds like a terrible idea. Man, the Cousins-Davis thing has to work or this disaster just keeps going. Oh well. Even with all the turmoil I still like the Pelicans to be marginally better. 38 wins.
Mavs
PG Smith, SG Barnes, SF Matthews, PF Nowitzki, C Nerlens
Bench: PG Farrell/Barea/Harris, SG Curry, SF McRoberts/Finney-Smith, PF Powell, C Withey
Why don't free agents want to play in Dallas? Cool city, Dirk's great, Coach Carlisle is outstanding, Cuban's a good owner, history of winning, good fans. Why are they still carrying JJ Barea and Devin Harris? Why is Jeff Withey the best big man they can get? And why did they have to play chicken with Nerlens to bring him back? Weird. Anyway, they've got a good coach, the PG is a rookie but I think he's gonna be really good (either Smith and Carlisle get along famously or they flat fucking hate each other, good fun either way), Nerlens and Powell should make a pretty good combo, and Dirk still has 1-2 good years left in him. I think this team could be kinda fun and if Smith is the deal then they could really take off; on the other hand, they could implode and be truly awful; along with the Pelicans I think they have the widest possible variance in the league. I like them to be slightly better than last year, 37 wins.
Grizzlies
PG Conley, SG Tyreke, SF Parsons, PF Gasol, C Wright
Bench: PG Chalmers/Harrison, SG Baldwin/Selden/Brooks/Zagorac, SF McLemore, PF Green/Ennis/Rabb, C Davis
I dunno, my gut feeling is the Conley-Gasol core is getting too old, Tyreke Evans and Chalmers only make them older, Parsons and Wright don't make them any more efficient and the raft of youngsters are kinda promising but not ready yet. It feels to me like a rebuild year, like its time to start salary dumping and accumulating draft picks. But if the vets stay healthy and the youngsters can get coached up, maybe this team coalesces into something. Hard to imagine the Grizzlies being bad but that seems more likely than them being good. I think they get 29 wins (and make at least one major trade this year).
2017-18 NBA Preview: Southeast Division
Wizards
PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Morris, C Gortat
Bench: PG Frazier/Satoransky, SG Sloan/Meeks, SF Oubre, PF Scott/McCullough C Mahinmi/Smith
God, their salary cap is maxed on 5 players (well, 4 and Ian Mahinmi), leaving very little flexibility going forward and not much scrill for bench depth. Fortunately that starting five is still capable of getting better which they'll need to be to make this a worthwhile season. I think they're still better than the Heat and I have them finishing 4th in the East with 48 wins.
Heat
PG Dragic, SG Waiters, SF Winslow, PF James Johnson, C Whiteside
Bench: PG Tyler Johnson, SG Richardson/MacGruder, SF Mickey, PF Olynyk/Adebayo, C Hammons/Haslem
This is kind of a weird team but I'm a big fan of Dragic and Coach Spoelstra, I was really impressed with how they finished last season, if they can keep that going they'll easily be a playoff team (and be a dangerous foe for the Celtics in round 2!). That said, I still can't get over how weird this team is. 48 wins and 5th in the East.
Hornets
PG Kemba, SG Monk, SF Williams, PF Batum, C Howard
Bench: PG Carter-Williams, SG Lamb, SF Kidd-Gilchrist, PF Kaminsky/Zeller
Ah, the Hornets. So let's run it down: I've never thought much of Dwight Howard (10 years in the league and offensively he's still a project), Kemba Walker (helluva scorer but not enough on his own to carry a team), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (I love his energy but I never quite knew what his game is), Marvin Williams (this guy being a classic 3-and-D guy is a pipe dream), Cody Zeller (nice rotation guy but not a top 5 pick talent), Frank Kaminsky (smart but slow, ineffective in the long run), Michael Carter-Williams (no real instinct for the game, a non-scorer out there), Malik Monk (oh, he'll have big games but he'll disappear too), Jeremy Lamb (....he's just not any good), Coach Clifford (well-respected around the league but I never really understood why) and GM Michael Jordan (I'm not at all convinced that he is a good judge of talent or has any sense of overall strategy in roster building). Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, right? No! I actually kinda love this team! I feel like the interplay between Kemba and Howard can open up opportunities for MKG, Zeller, Kaminsky and Monk and as long as MCW just protects the ball I think he can fit in just fine off the bench. And if Coach Cliff can keep Howard in the game plan, he'll have plenty of weapons to make the most of (curious to see what he gets out Treveon Graham and Dwayne Bacon). They'll have ups and downs but if the Wizards or Heat stumble, I honestly think the Hornets can make a jump. I have them 7th in the East with 43 wins.
Magic
PG Payton, SG Fournier, SF Ross, PF Gordon, C Vucevic
Bench: PG Mack/Augustin, SG Simmons/Afflalo, SF Ross/Hezonja/Rudez, PF Speights/Isaac, C Biyombo
Hmmm....this is another weird collection of players. Not sure how they fit together, not sure what Magic management is going for, not sure who will still be there at the end of the year (oh, yeah, they definitely have trades to make). If this team overachieves at all seems like Coach Vogel would be a good Coach of the Year candidate because this is a team that needs some coaching, some top-down structure. Last year they won 29 games, I think this team will be better though probably not a huge stride forward. I think they'll win 33 games (firmly in lottery territory). (Is Vogel a good enough coach to build around? If they move on from Payton, Gordon, etc., will that signal that Vogel is gone too or that he's juiced in for the long term?)
Hawks
PG Schroder, SG Belineli, SF Bazemore, PF Prince, C Dedmon
Bench: PG Delaney/Dorsey, SG Evans, SF Ilyasova/Bembry, PF Muscala/Collins, C Plumlee
The Hawks have devolved so much in the last 2-3 years that I don't even know who they are these days. I don't understand their direction, I don't understand their roster, I don't understand their strategy. I like what I've seen of Taurean Prince, should be plenty of room for Deandre Dembry and John Collins to get some time, kinda curious to see if Tyler Dorsey can play at the next level. Schroder leaves me cold, Belinelli is a nice shooter but not much else, Bazemore is getting a star paycheck but is not a star player, Dedmon and Plumlee and Ilyasova might turn out to be worthwhile trade bait and as much praise as Coach Budenholzer accumulates, he looks like a coach that wins with good players and loses with bad ones. Hawks fans ought to keep an eye on the NCAA, that's where their future is. 22 wins.
PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Morris, C Gortat
Bench: PG Frazier/Satoransky, SG Sloan/Meeks, SF Oubre, PF Scott/McCullough C Mahinmi/Smith
God, their salary cap is maxed on 5 players (well, 4 and Ian Mahinmi), leaving very little flexibility going forward and not much scrill for bench depth. Fortunately that starting five is still capable of getting better which they'll need to be to make this a worthwhile season. I think they're still better than the Heat and I have them finishing 4th in the East with 48 wins.
Heat
PG Dragic, SG Waiters, SF Winslow, PF James Johnson, C Whiteside
Bench: PG Tyler Johnson, SG Richardson/MacGruder, SF Mickey, PF Olynyk/Adebayo, C Hammons/Haslem
This is kind of a weird team but I'm a big fan of Dragic and Coach Spoelstra, I was really impressed with how they finished last season, if they can keep that going they'll easily be a playoff team (and be a dangerous foe for the Celtics in round 2!). That said, I still can't get over how weird this team is. 48 wins and 5th in the East.
Hornets
PG Kemba, SG Monk, SF Williams, PF Batum, C Howard
Bench: PG Carter-Williams, SG Lamb, SF Kidd-Gilchrist, PF Kaminsky/Zeller
Ah, the Hornets. So let's run it down: I've never thought much of Dwight Howard (10 years in the league and offensively he's still a project), Kemba Walker (helluva scorer but not enough on his own to carry a team), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (I love his energy but I never quite knew what his game is), Marvin Williams (this guy being a classic 3-and-D guy is a pipe dream), Cody Zeller (nice rotation guy but not a top 5 pick talent), Frank Kaminsky (smart but slow, ineffective in the long run), Michael Carter-Williams (no real instinct for the game, a non-scorer out there), Malik Monk (oh, he'll have big games but he'll disappear too), Jeremy Lamb (....he's just not any good), Coach Clifford (well-respected around the league but I never really understood why) and GM Michael Jordan (I'm not at all convinced that he is a good judge of talent or has any sense of overall strategy in roster building). Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, right? No! I actually kinda love this team! I feel like the interplay between Kemba and Howard can open up opportunities for MKG, Zeller, Kaminsky and Monk and as long as MCW just protects the ball I think he can fit in just fine off the bench. And if Coach Cliff can keep Howard in the game plan, he'll have plenty of weapons to make the most of (curious to see what he gets out Treveon Graham and Dwayne Bacon). They'll have ups and downs but if the Wizards or Heat stumble, I honestly think the Hornets can make a jump. I have them 7th in the East with 43 wins.
Magic
PG Payton, SG Fournier, SF Ross, PF Gordon, C Vucevic
Bench: PG Mack/Augustin, SG Simmons/Afflalo, SF Ross/Hezonja/Rudez, PF Speights/Isaac, C Biyombo
Hmmm....this is another weird collection of players. Not sure how they fit together, not sure what Magic management is going for, not sure who will still be there at the end of the year (oh, yeah, they definitely have trades to make). If this team overachieves at all seems like Coach Vogel would be a good Coach of the Year candidate because this is a team that needs some coaching, some top-down structure. Last year they won 29 games, I think this team will be better though probably not a huge stride forward. I think they'll win 33 games (firmly in lottery territory). (Is Vogel a good enough coach to build around? If they move on from Payton, Gordon, etc., will that signal that Vogel is gone too or that he's juiced in for the long term?)
Hawks
PG Schroder, SG Belineli, SF Bazemore, PF Prince, C Dedmon
Bench: PG Delaney/Dorsey, SG Evans, SF Ilyasova/Bembry, PF Muscala/Collins, C Plumlee
The Hawks have devolved so much in the last 2-3 years that I don't even know who they are these days. I don't understand their direction, I don't understand their roster, I don't understand their strategy. I like what I've seen of Taurean Prince, should be plenty of room for Deandre Dembry and John Collins to get some time, kinda curious to see if Tyler Dorsey can play at the next level. Schroder leaves me cold, Belinelli is a nice shooter but not much else, Bazemore is getting a star paycheck but is not a star player, Dedmon and Plumlee and Ilyasova might turn out to be worthwhile trade bait and as much praise as Coach Budenholzer accumulates, he looks like a coach that wins with good players and loses with bad ones. Hawks fans ought to keep an eye on the NCAA, that's where their future is. 22 wins.
2017-18 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division
Celtics
PG Kyrie, SG Smart, SF Hayward, PF Marcus Morris, C Horford
Bench: PG Rozier/Larkin, SF Brown/Tatum, PF C Baynes
The Celtics finally made all those moves we've been waiting for all these years. And they were huge. In: Kyrie, Hayward, Marcus Morris; Out: Isiah Thomas (as beloved a Boston sports figure as there has been lately), Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko. The Celtics of recent vintage have a featured a lot of nice players that played their small parts; but that depth isn't there any more. Off the bench is a lot of untested Rooks: Yabusele, Ojelewe, Nader, Holmes, Williams, (everyone loves 2nd round picks....til they start filling out your bench), in addition to Jaysun Tatum (who should get regular rotation action right away). I like the talent up top, I love Coach Stevens and while the expectations are higher than ever, I can't help feeling like they are one Kyrie injury away from being in a bad spot (how deep they going with Shane Larkin?). Oh well, I like them to finish tops in the East with 58 wins.
Raptors
PG Lowry, SG DeRozan, SF Miles , PF Ibaka, C Valenciunas
Bench: PG Van Vleet, SG Wright/McDaniels, SF Powell/Anunoby, PF Poetl/Caboclo/Siakam, C Noquiera/Meeks
The way this team got smoked by the Cavs in the playoffs last year was kinda sad. But all they can do is run it back. My guess is they come out hot, challenge for 1st in the East for much of the year...and then get smoked by the Cavs again in the playoffs. *sigh* Man, they really are committed to that starting five (and I suspect they'll wrap up Powell as their 6th man going forward), so grinding and hoping they get lucky against Lebron is where this team is at for the next few years. I kinda like the depth of this team but all that is entirely in support to Lowry and DeRozan, those two must stay healthy for the Raptors to be any good at all. I'll go ahead and assume them to be healthy enough to get it done. I like them to finish 2nd in the East with 54 wins.
Sixers
PG Fultz, SG Redick, SF Simmons, PF Saric, C Embiid
Bench: PG McConnell/Bayless, SG Stauskus/Anderson, SF Covington/Luwawu, PF Jahlil Okafor/Humphries/Holmes, C Johnson/Emeka Okafor
Process 2.0 is about to get started. The Sixers have been sacrificing W's in service of hoarding toys like a fat kid after Xmas but now the toy box is full and its time to play. They've augmented the rookies (Fultz, Simmons, Korkmaz) and the other youngsters (Stauskus, Okafor, Saric, Anderson, Luwawau, Holmes still on rookie contracts) with a handful of vets (Redick, Bayless, Humphries, Emeka Okafor (Emeka Okafor?!?!), Amir Johhnson) to season the serving. Okay, how are they gonna be? I dunno. Embiid showed that he can play, Saric showed the he can play, Okafor showed he can play (but everyone somehow never saw what I saw), and I think Stauskus, McConnell, Anderson and Luwawu can be effective in limited play, throw in those veterans and this is a pretty good team. Just a matter of how all the pieces fit together. I think they're in the hunt for the 8th spot at year's end (I don't think they get it), with 36 wins.
Knicks
PG Nikilitina, SG Hardaway, SF Beasley, PF Porzingis, C Kanter
Bench: PG Jack/Baker, SG Sessions/Dotson, SF McDermott/Kuzminkas, PF Noah/Hernangomez, C O'Quinn
First take on Knick PG's: am I rude for thinking that Nikilitina is the poor man's Tony Parker, Jack is the poor man's Kemba Walker and Ron Baker is the poor man's TJ McConnell? First take on Knick SG's: they're all PG's, aren't they? Do they have any scorers? First take on Knick SF's: a coupla reclamation projects and a youngster happy to get out from under Melo's shadow. Getting rid of Melo didn't make this team better or worse, strangely enough. I think Porzingis is free to do whatever he wants, hope for the best for young Nikilitina, and I expect the Knicks to match last year's W total: 31.
Nets
PG Russell, SG Crabbe, SF LaVert, PF Hollis-Jefferson, C Mozgov
Bench: PG Lin/Harris, SG Whitehead/Dinwiddie, SF Booker/Acy, PF Carroll, C Zeller/Allen
This is D'Angelo Russell's team now, I expect Jarrett Allen to get regular playing time by the end of the year and I expect plenty of time for LaVert and Hollis-Jefferson and Whitehead because...well...why not? (Hmmm, think they'd like to have Kyle Kuzma right now, too?) They're in on Crabbe and Mozgov for the next 3 years but otherwise they're starting to get their cap flexibility back. If Coach Atkinson gets them to play hard and build that culture around Russell/Allen/LeVert/Hollis-Jefferson by next summer they'll be in the hunt for some good free agents. I think they'll win 27 games.
PG Kyrie, SG Smart, SF Hayward, PF Marcus Morris, C Horford
Bench: PG Rozier/Larkin, SF Brown/Tatum, PF C Baynes
The Celtics finally made all those moves we've been waiting for all these years. And they were huge. In: Kyrie, Hayward, Marcus Morris; Out: Isiah Thomas (as beloved a Boston sports figure as there has been lately), Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko. The Celtics of recent vintage have a featured a lot of nice players that played their small parts; but that depth isn't there any more. Off the bench is a lot of untested Rooks: Yabusele, Ojelewe, Nader, Holmes, Williams, (everyone loves 2nd round picks....til they start filling out your bench), in addition to Jaysun Tatum (who should get regular rotation action right away). I like the talent up top, I love Coach Stevens and while the expectations are higher than ever, I can't help feeling like they are one Kyrie injury away from being in a bad spot (how deep they going with Shane Larkin?). Oh well, I like them to finish tops in the East with 58 wins.
Raptors
PG Lowry, SG DeRozan, SF Miles , PF Ibaka, C Valenciunas
Bench: PG Van Vleet, SG Wright/McDaniels, SF Powell/Anunoby, PF Poetl/Caboclo/Siakam, C Noquiera/Meeks
The way this team got smoked by the Cavs in the playoffs last year was kinda sad. But all they can do is run it back. My guess is they come out hot, challenge for 1st in the East for much of the year...and then get smoked by the Cavs again in the playoffs. *sigh* Man, they really are committed to that starting five (and I suspect they'll wrap up Powell as their 6th man going forward), so grinding and hoping they get lucky against Lebron is where this team is at for the next few years. I kinda like the depth of this team but all that is entirely in support to Lowry and DeRozan, those two must stay healthy for the Raptors to be any good at all. I'll go ahead and assume them to be healthy enough to get it done. I like them to finish 2nd in the East with 54 wins.
Sixers
PG Fultz, SG Redick, SF Simmons, PF Saric, C Embiid
Bench: PG McConnell/Bayless, SG Stauskus/Anderson, SF Covington/Luwawu, PF Jahlil Okafor/Humphries/Holmes, C Johnson/Emeka Okafor
Process 2.0 is about to get started. The Sixers have been sacrificing W's in service of hoarding toys like a fat kid after Xmas but now the toy box is full and its time to play. They've augmented the rookies (Fultz, Simmons, Korkmaz) and the other youngsters (Stauskus, Okafor, Saric, Anderson, Luwawau, Holmes still on rookie contracts) with a handful of vets (Redick, Bayless, Humphries, Emeka Okafor (Emeka Okafor?!?!), Amir Johhnson) to season the serving. Okay, how are they gonna be? I dunno. Embiid showed that he can play, Saric showed the he can play, Okafor showed he can play (but everyone somehow never saw what I saw), and I think Stauskus, McConnell, Anderson and Luwawu can be effective in limited play, throw in those veterans and this is a pretty good team. Just a matter of how all the pieces fit together. I think they're in the hunt for the 8th spot at year's end (I don't think they get it), with 36 wins.
Knicks
PG Nikilitina, SG Hardaway, SF Beasley, PF Porzingis, C Kanter
Bench: PG Jack/Baker, SG Sessions/Dotson, SF McDermott/Kuzminkas, PF Noah/Hernangomez, C O'Quinn
First take on Knick PG's: am I rude for thinking that Nikilitina is the poor man's Tony Parker, Jack is the poor man's Kemba Walker and Ron Baker is the poor man's TJ McConnell? First take on Knick SG's: they're all PG's, aren't they? Do they have any scorers? First take on Knick SF's: a coupla reclamation projects and a youngster happy to get out from under Melo's shadow. Getting rid of Melo didn't make this team better or worse, strangely enough. I think Porzingis is free to do whatever he wants, hope for the best for young Nikilitina, and I expect the Knicks to match last year's W total: 31.
Nets
PG Russell, SG Crabbe, SF LaVert, PF Hollis-Jefferson, C Mozgov
Bench: PG Lin/Harris, SG Whitehead/Dinwiddie, SF Booker/Acy, PF Carroll, C Zeller/Allen
This is D'Angelo Russell's team now, I expect Jarrett Allen to get regular playing time by the end of the year and I expect plenty of time for LaVert and Hollis-Jefferson and Whitehead because...well...why not? (Hmmm, think they'd like to have Kyle Kuzma right now, too?) They're in on Crabbe and Mozgov for the next 3 years but otherwise they're starting to get their cap flexibility back. If Coach Atkinson gets them to play hard and build that culture around Russell/Allen/LeVert/Hollis-Jefferson by next summer they'll be in the hunt for some good free agents. I think they'll win 27 games.
2017-18 NBA Overs/Unders
West
Warriors (67.5) (Over)
Rockets (55.5) (Over)
Spurs (54.5) (Under)
Thunder (51.5) (Over--way over!)
Wolves (48.5) (Under)
Nuggets (45.5) (Over)
Clippers (43.5) (Under)
Blazers (41.5) (Under)
Jazz (40.5) (Over)
Pelicans (39.5) (Under)
Grizzlies (37.5) (Under)
Mavs (35.5) (Over)
Lakers (33.5) (Under)
Suns (28.5) (Under)
Kings (28.5) (Over)
East
Celtics (56.5) (Over)
Cavs (53.5) (Under)
Raptors (48.5) (Over)
Wizards (47.5) (Over)
Bucks (47.5) (Under)
Heat (43.5) (Over)
Hornets (42.5) (Over)
Sixers (42.5) (Under)
Pistons (38.5) (Under)
Magic (33.5) (Under)
Pacers (31.5) (Over)
Knicks (30.5) (Over)
Nets (28.5) (Under)
Hawks (25.5) (Under)
Bulls (21.5) (Under)
Warriors (67.5) (Over)
Rockets (55.5) (Over)
Spurs (54.5) (Under)
Thunder (51.5) (Over--way over!)
Wolves (48.5) (Under)
Nuggets (45.5) (Over)
Clippers (43.5) (Under)
Blazers (41.5) (Under)
Jazz (40.5) (Over)
Pelicans (39.5) (Under)
Grizzlies (37.5) (Under)
Mavs (35.5) (Over)
Lakers (33.5) (Under)
Suns (28.5) (Under)
Kings (28.5) (Over)
East
Celtics (56.5) (Over)
Cavs (53.5) (Under)
Raptors (48.5) (Over)
Wizards (47.5) (Over)
Bucks (47.5) (Under)
Heat (43.5) (Over)
Hornets (42.5) (Over)
Sixers (42.5) (Under)
Pistons (38.5) (Under)
Magic (33.5) (Under)
Pacers (31.5) (Over)
Knicks (30.5) (Over)
Nets (28.5) (Under)
Hawks (25.5) (Under)
Bulls (21.5) (Under)
Friday, October 13, 2017
2017 MLB Post-Season Predictions (part 3)
Yankees-Astros
Hate to sound like a grumpy Indian fan but the Yanks didn't win that series, the Indians lost it. I was impressed with the Yankee tenacity and the timely hitting but their victory was more a case of the Lindor-Kipnis-Ramirez trio all falling flat (last year this was Kipnis's team, but this year Kipnis was in and out of the lineup, never got on track at the plate, I was dubious of sticking him in CF, it ultimately upset the balance). The Astros, on the other hand, got just enough of a test from the Red Sox to get them rolling into this series. I'm not blown away by the Astros pitching but the defense and lineup are playing good ball right now. The Yankees are on a nice streak, riding a wave but Judge and Sanchez honestly kinda sucked against the Indians and I didn't see enough from the vets to make me think that the Yanks are balanced enough to win another series. I'm a big fan of Severino but Tanaka is up and down (he was decidedly up in Game Three) and I think the bullpen may have played itself out. I like the Astros to win 6.
Cubs-Dodgers
The Dodgers sure looked awful in September but they're looking pretty good again in October. I thought the D-backs had a chance to put the touch on them but they held their ground and got it done. (You gotta respect the fact that the losers all went out with their best SP: Sale, Greinke, Kluber and Scherzer all played big minutes in their teams' final games) They seem to be rolling again and at their best I thought the Dodgers were the best team I saw all year. I've got stick with them to keep it going against the Cubs, who are too up and down, especially the pitching. The Cubs have big moments, big plays, tough outs and then they have careless defense, bone-headed baserunning and pitching that falters. They've got to the goods to be the best but I kinda don't see them bringing the goods 4 times out of 7 games against the Dodgers. I'll take the Dodgers in 7.
Hate to sound like a grumpy Indian fan but the Yanks didn't win that series, the Indians lost it. I was impressed with the Yankee tenacity and the timely hitting but their victory was more a case of the Lindor-Kipnis-Ramirez trio all falling flat (last year this was Kipnis's team, but this year Kipnis was in and out of the lineup, never got on track at the plate, I was dubious of sticking him in CF, it ultimately upset the balance). The Astros, on the other hand, got just enough of a test from the Red Sox to get them rolling into this series. I'm not blown away by the Astros pitching but the defense and lineup are playing good ball right now. The Yankees are on a nice streak, riding a wave but Judge and Sanchez honestly kinda sucked against the Indians and I didn't see enough from the vets to make me think that the Yanks are balanced enough to win another series. I'm a big fan of Severino but Tanaka is up and down (he was decidedly up in Game Three) and I think the bullpen may have played itself out. I like the Astros to win 6.
Cubs-Dodgers
The Dodgers sure looked awful in September but they're looking pretty good again in October. I thought the D-backs had a chance to put the touch on them but they held their ground and got it done. (You gotta respect the fact that the losers all went out with their best SP: Sale, Greinke, Kluber and Scherzer all played big minutes in their teams' final games) They seem to be rolling again and at their best I thought the Dodgers were the best team I saw all year. I've got stick with them to keep it going against the Cubs, who are too up and down, especially the pitching. The Cubs have big moments, big plays, tough outs and then they have careless defense, bone-headed baserunning and pitching that falters. They've got to the goods to be the best but I kinda don't see them bringing the goods 4 times out of 7 games against the Dodgers. I'll take the Dodgers in 7.
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
2017-18 Pointless NBA Trade Idea
Grizzlies get Lamarcus Aldridge; Spurs get Marc Gasol
The Spurs get to unite the Gasol brothers for 3 years (might be kinda fun) and they get out from under Aldridge, who has never fit the Spurs system. Gasol is a better passer and would fit nicely with Pau and Gay down low. In Aldridge the Grizzlies get the unconscious mid-range scoring threat they've long needed to play off of Conley and his contract is slightly smaller and 1 year shorter.
The Grizzlies get the scorer they've always needed and there's more flexibility going forward. The Spurs move off the contract they don't want and bring in a hungry veteran that already fits the culture. Not sure it actually makes either team substantially better but it feels like the puzzle pieces fit better, no?
The Spurs get to unite the Gasol brothers for 3 years (might be kinda fun) and they get out from under Aldridge, who has never fit the Spurs system. Gasol is a better passer and would fit nicely with Pau and Gay down low. In Aldridge the Grizzlies get the unconscious mid-range scoring threat they've long needed to play off of Conley and his contract is slightly smaller and 1 year shorter.
The Grizzlies get the scorer they've always needed and there's more flexibility going forward. The Spurs move off the contract they don't want and bring in a hungry veteran that already fits the culture. Not sure it actually makes either team substantially better but it feels like the puzzle pieces fit better, no?
USA Soccer (*sigh* No World Cup)
Trinidad 2-1 USA
That loss sealed the fate for USA last night, as they failed to reach the World Cup for the first time since 1986. This qualifying season has been one of extreme ups and downs for USA. After losing the first two matches (Mexico 2-1 USA; Costa Rica 4-0 USA), coach Jurgen Klinsmann was fired and former coach Bruce Arena was brought back in to guide the squad through qualification. (I haven't seen the news yet but I assume Arena will be fired today--if 'fire' is even the term, he was simply brought in for this World Cup cycle so his presence is no longer required) At the time I was all for that move: Klinsmann had long shown me that he wasn't the man for the USA job and given the circumstances I thought Arena was the perfect choice. Arena's mission was clear: get the USA back on track, get through the Gold Cup and into the World Cup.
Arena's return to the Hex got off to a good start: USA 6-0 Honduras. This was one of the "ups". Clint Dempsey had a hat trick and USA seemed to have their feet under them again. The 1-1 draw in Panama was a good enough result, and though the defense was wobbly at times, Pulisic and Dempsey had some good interplay up front and it felt like USA finally had some identity to its game going forward. USA 2-0 Trinidad and USA 1-1 Mexico were also positive signs that the team was moving in the right direction. You've got to your win home games and a draw in Mexico City is a notable achievement (Mexico's home field advantage is pretty staggering). Two home wins (and piled up some goal differential) and two road draws are good results.
Then came this past summer's Gold Cup. (Hmmm....why didn't I write about this at the time?) I watched most all of the tourney and I'm pleased to report that USA was clearly the best team from beginning to end. Yes, Mexico didn't bring their top squad nor did Costa Rica, but USA's performance on both sides of the ball and with a wide variety of lineups was impressive throughout. And though it was Jamaica that USA beat in the final, I thought Panama, who tied USA in the first game, was probably the next best team. (Jamaica has a lot of impressive athletes but none seemed particularly good at soccer)
USA was finally ready to dominate, they had their identity, they had their form and they had good depth at all positions. Bring on the Hex!
Unfortunately, their next game was another one of the "downs": Costa Rica 2-0 USA. USA was listless in, couldn't seem to find in shape in the attacking half and were prone to dumb giveaways in the back that led to a disappointing--and shocking!--home defeat. Suddenly the team that had looked so convincing against the same opponents in the Gold Cup was in disarray all over again. This single game as much as any other was the back breaker, a win here would've made everything easy, instead this made everything hard.
The next match (USA 1-1 Honduras) featured another bad giveaway and, frankly, a lucky goal was the only thing that saved any shred of hope for the Americans. Honduras is not an easy place to play and never has been. The idea that this was where USA would right the ship was pretty much always doomed.
USA 4-0 Panama brought back some hope and put USA back into 3rd place in the Hex. Pulisic had a great game and cemented his status as the leader of this team. I was struck by Panama's funky attacking shape: when they pushed forward, they left a huge gaping hole in the middle of the field--dude, you could play Frisbee in the hole at midfield!--that USA was able to counter through again and again. (Kind of felt like Panama had a specific game plan in mind that they abandoned almost immediately because of Pulisic's early goal)
Then came last night's loss at Trinidad. The commentators for the game were quite upbeat about USA's chances (I believe he said USA had a 93% chance of qualifiying going into the game), but I was less sanguine. The nightmare scenario (USA losing, Panama and Honduras both winning) was hanging out there to be had. And it was had. It was another listless performance, another Omar Gonzalez mistake (and, oh man, how he wasn't called for the penalty a few minutes later is a mystery!), no one moved the ball forward, Trinidad stuck with their game plan, bogged down in the middle and road the early goal all the way to a W (only their second win in the Hex).
Okay. Where do we go now? Well, Coach Bruce Arena is not coming back. He was never the man for the future, only for now and...well....now is over. I've said a few times already that Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard have played their final games for USA but this time I have to believe that everyone else agrees with me. To my mind one of the downsides of Arena's "now"-ness was not moving on to Brad Guzan earlier. Personally I've seen enough of Omar Gonzalez, never understood why Arena kept going with him: he doesn't hold the off-side trap well and regularly gets beat when strikers attack him directly.
On defense, I liked the Brooks-Cameron line up the middle, not sure why Arena abandoned that. I kinda liked Villafana and Yedlin on the wings both of whom are young enough to be back around. I'm not sure about Brooks and Cameron coming back (Cameron in particular seemed quite salty about being left out of Arena's plans, not sure he'll want to be back). I like Matt Besler and Tim Ream to provide bench depth. Not sure which youngsters are in the pipeline.
Pulisic and Nagbe are clearly the core of offense for the foreseeable future. I assume Michael Bradley will be too; I've long had that love-hate thing with Bradley: I appreciate that he's confident and sure with the ball, that he's a leader in the middle; but I wish he'd push the ball forward more, he seems intent on settling when getting into the attack is crucial. If he steadily drifts back to a defensive mid, maybe even a sweeper role, I'd be okay with that. I'd like the see more attack in the midfield, let Bradley become a defender if need be. I was generally pleased with Bedoya, Arriola and Kellen Acosta in the midfield. Fabian Johnson is young enough to deserve another shot, I suppose, but I was never blown away by that guy (he doesn't look like his heart in the game). Again, I'm sure the Under-17 team will produce another 4-5 guys to throw in the mix (at least I hope so!).
Altidore and Wood are big strong guys that can rip the ball when they get a chance and they're veterans now I assume those forward spots are theirs to lose. That said, I was never terribly impressed with their ability to create chances and if there's some USA youth out there that can compete, I say bring 'em on.
As for coach, I suggested a while back aiming for Didier Deschamps, who will either be canonized or fired by August 2018. The Klinsmann experience did not turn me off the European coaches, quite the contrary--I think Klinsmann just sucks at being a coach. I watch a lot of soccer but I'm not that immersed in the coaches, the culture, etc., to know who the next coach should be. But my gut is there aren't any South Americans ready for this job. And I don't see any North Americans out there ready to take on this task (unless you want to follow retread Bruce Arena with retread Bob Bradley, which I don't) so I think its back to the continent. Again, Deschamps will either be available or he won't and though USA soccer is itching to move on, we kinda have to wait until the Cup is over to see who the next coach will be.
And what about Sunil Gulati? I don't think he's the problem. His only mistake was sticking with Klinsmann for so long but (arguably) that was a mistake that anyone would've made. I understood bringing Klinsmann in, I understood keeping him through the 2014 Cup, and while doubling down on him after Summer 2014 was not what I wanted, I can understand that within USA Soccer there would've been a faction in favor of it. And I kinda like him in a public persona kinda way. So while Gulati will undoubtedly face more competition the next time his seat is up for election, I don't think getting rid of him now advances anything (or is even possible to do...?).
I am disappointed to not be going to the World Cup. Not because I think we were gonna win this time (ha!) or because its the only thing getting me interested in the Cup (hell, no! I've quit jobs to watch the World Cup before! USA impacts nothing on my interest in the Cup), but because USA's natural progression should include always making the Cup. Dude, our hemisphere gets 3 bids and a chance for a 4th--there's no way USA should ever not be in the top 4! Ever! Under any circumstances! (Mexico, too, should never be out of the top 4)
So how did this come to be? You know my answer: Klinsmann was good at developing the youth game in America but not good at dealing with the players once they got to the national level. Klinsmann set this team back a whole four years, while simultaneously producing a deeper collection of talented players. I thought there was still enough time and talent for Bruce Arena to get it done (kudos for USA's dominating performance in the Gold Cup) but he was never able to fully get a grip on where this team needs to go. Now its up to Gulati (or Gulati's replacement) to get the program back on track.
That loss sealed the fate for USA last night, as they failed to reach the World Cup for the first time since 1986. This qualifying season has been one of extreme ups and downs for USA. After losing the first two matches (Mexico 2-1 USA; Costa Rica 4-0 USA), coach Jurgen Klinsmann was fired and former coach Bruce Arena was brought back in to guide the squad through qualification. (I haven't seen the news yet but I assume Arena will be fired today--if 'fire' is even the term, he was simply brought in for this World Cup cycle so his presence is no longer required) At the time I was all for that move: Klinsmann had long shown me that he wasn't the man for the USA job and given the circumstances I thought Arena was the perfect choice. Arena's mission was clear: get the USA back on track, get through the Gold Cup and into the World Cup.
Arena's return to the Hex got off to a good start: USA 6-0 Honduras. This was one of the "ups". Clint Dempsey had a hat trick and USA seemed to have their feet under them again. The 1-1 draw in Panama was a good enough result, and though the defense was wobbly at times, Pulisic and Dempsey had some good interplay up front and it felt like USA finally had some identity to its game going forward. USA 2-0 Trinidad and USA 1-1 Mexico were also positive signs that the team was moving in the right direction. You've got to your win home games and a draw in Mexico City is a notable achievement (Mexico's home field advantage is pretty staggering). Two home wins (and piled up some goal differential) and two road draws are good results.
Then came this past summer's Gold Cup. (Hmmm....why didn't I write about this at the time?) I watched most all of the tourney and I'm pleased to report that USA was clearly the best team from beginning to end. Yes, Mexico didn't bring their top squad nor did Costa Rica, but USA's performance on both sides of the ball and with a wide variety of lineups was impressive throughout. And though it was Jamaica that USA beat in the final, I thought Panama, who tied USA in the first game, was probably the next best team. (Jamaica has a lot of impressive athletes but none seemed particularly good at soccer)
USA was finally ready to dominate, they had their identity, they had their form and they had good depth at all positions. Bring on the Hex!
Unfortunately, their next game was another one of the "downs": Costa Rica 2-0 USA. USA was listless in, couldn't seem to find in shape in the attacking half and were prone to dumb giveaways in the back that led to a disappointing--and shocking!--home defeat. Suddenly the team that had looked so convincing against the same opponents in the Gold Cup was in disarray all over again. This single game as much as any other was the back breaker, a win here would've made everything easy, instead this made everything hard.
The next match (USA 1-1 Honduras) featured another bad giveaway and, frankly, a lucky goal was the only thing that saved any shred of hope for the Americans. Honduras is not an easy place to play and never has been. The idea that this was where USA would right the ship was pretty much always doomed.
USA 4-0 Panama brought back some hope and put USA back into 3rd place in the Hex. Pulisic had a great game and cemented his status as the leader of this team. I was struck by Panama's funky attacking shape: when they pushed forward, they left a huge gaping hole in the middle of the field--dude, you could play Frisbee in the hole at midfield!--that USA was able to counter through again and again. (Kind of felt like Panama had a specific game plan in mind that they abandoned almost immediately because of Pulisic's early goal)
Then came last night's loss at Trinidad. The commentators for the game were quite upbeat about USA's chances (I believe he said USA had a 93% chance of qualifiying going into the game), but I was less sanguine. The nightmare scenario (USA losing, Panama and Honduras both winning) was hanging out there to be had. And it was had. It was another listless performance, another Omar Gonzalez mistake (and, oh man, how he wasn't called for the penalty a few minutes later is a mystery!), no one moved the ball forward, Trinidad stuck with their game plan, bogged down in the middle and road the early goal all the way to a W (only their second win in the Hex).
Okay. Where do we go now? Well, Coach Bruce Arena is not coming back. He was never the man for the future, only for now and...well....now is over. I've said a few times already that Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard have played their final games for USA but this time I have to believe that everyone else agrees with me. To my mind one of the downsides of Arena's "now"-ness was not moving on to Brad Guzan earlier. Personally I've seen enough of Omar Gonzalez, never understood why Arena kept going with him: he doesn't hold the off-side trap well and regularly gets beat when strikers attack him directly.
On defense, I liked the Brooks-Cameron line up the middle, not sure why Arena abandoned that. I kinda liked Villafana and Yedlin on the wings both of whom are young enough to be back around. I'm not sure about Brooks and Cameron coming back (Cameron in particular seemed quite salty about being left out of Arena's plans, not sure he'll want to be back). I like Matt Besler and Tim Ream to provide bench depth. Not sure which youngsters are in the pipeline.
Pulisic and Nagbe are clearly the core of offense for the foreseeable future. I assume Michael Bradley will be too; I've long had that love-hate thing with Bradley: I appreciate that he's confident and sure with the ball, that he's a leader in the middle; but I wish he'd push the ball forward more, he seems intent on settling when getting into the attack is crucial. If he steadily drifts back to a defensive mid, maybe even a sweeper role, I'd be okay with that. I'd like the see more attack in the midfield, let Bradley become a defender if need be. I was generally pleased with Bedoya, Arriola and Kellen Acosta in the midfield. Fabian Johnson is young enough to deserve another shot, I suppose, but I was never blown away by that guy (he doesn't look like his heart in the game). Again, I'm sure the Under-17 team will produce another 4-5 guys to throw in the mix (at least I hope so!).
Altidore and Wood are big strong guys that can rip the ball when they get a chance and they're veterans now I assume those forward spots are theirs to lose. That said, I was never terribly impressed with their ability to create chances and if there's some USA youth out there that can compete, I say bring 'em on.
As for coach, I suggested a while back aiming for Didier Deschamps, who will either be canonized or fired by August 2018. The Klinsmann experience did not turn me off the European coaches, quite the contrary--I think Klinsmann just sucks at being a coach. I watch a lot of soccer but I'm not that immersed in the coaches, the culture, etc., to know who the next coach should be. But my gut is there aren't any South Americans ready for this job. And I don't see any North Americans out there ready to take on this task (unless you want to follow retread Bruce Arena with retread Bob Bradley, which I don't) so I think its back to the continent. Again, Deschamps will either be available or he won't and though USA soccer is itching to move on, we kinda have to wait until the Cup is over to see who the next coach will be.
And what about Sunil Gulati? I don't think he's the problem. His only mistake was sticking with Klinsmann for so long but (arguably) that was a mistake that anyone would've made. I understood bringing Klinsmann in, I understood keeping him through the 2014 Cup, and while doubling down on him after Summer 2014 was not what I wanted, I can understand that within USA Soccer there would've been a faction in favor of it. And I kinda like him in a public persona kinda way. So while Gulati will undoubtedly face more competition the next time his seat is up for election, I don't think getting rid of him now advances anything (or is even possible to do...?).
I am disappointed to not be going to the World Cup. Not because I think we were gonna win this time (ha!) or because its the only thing getting me interested in the Cup (hell, no! I've quit jobs to watch the World Cup before! USA impacts nothing on my interest in the Cup), but because USA's natural progression should include always making the Cup. Dude, our hemisphere gets 3 bids and a chance for a 4th--there's no way USA should ever not be in the top 4! Ever! Under any circumstances! (Mexico, too, should never be out of the top 4)
So how did this come to be? You know my answer: Klinsmann was good at developing the youth game in America but not good at dealing with the players once they got to the national level. Klinsmann set this team back a whole four years, while simultaneously producing a deeper collection of talented players. I thought there was still enough time and talent for Bruce Arena to get it done (kudos for USA's dominating performance in the Gold Cup) but he was never able to fully get a grip on where this team needs to go. Now its up to Gulati (or Gulati's replacement) to get the program back on track.
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 5)
Watched (some of):
Pats 19-14 Bucs
The Pats still haven't found their overpowering offensive form but the defense finally looked like they can win some games. That said, it really all came down to the fact that the Bucs' kicker missed 3 FG attempts. So are the Pats right again? Well, W on the road in a short week, defensive stand on the final drive, can't complain I guess. But, still....Brady, Belichick....not used to piling up FG's to eke out a W. Bucs are still a work in progress, huh? Yeah, I didn't fall for them this year, been burned too many times waiting for them to get it together. They've had their moments where they look for real but they'll have to make the playoffs at least once--at least!--before I start believing in them. Good W for the Pats, missed opportunity for the Bucs.
Bills 16-20 Bengals
Coming into this year I thought the Bills would have a good defense, so-so offense and be roughly an 8-8 team; I thought the Bengals would rebound from last year's disappointing run, regain their offensive form and the pass rush and take advantage of crappy Browns and Ravens teams and the depreciating Steelers. Well, so far, the Bills have been so stout on D that it makes them look pretty good and the Bengals started so poorly on offense that they've looked positively un-redeemable. That flipped back this week. The Bengals have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot (3 turnovers on Sunday, all flukes, all AJ Green's fault) and when they don't, that offense is actually pretty good. The Bills make the most of their opportunities (but are susceptible to big plays on defense) and keep games close, but that is precisely when the limitations of Tyrod Taylor become glaring (dude, you just knew he wasn't gonna come back and win in the end). There's still time for the Bengals, their division is looking pretty winnable right now; and for the Bills, well, if the Patriots really are devolving, then I guess maybe there's a shot but I don't see them challenging for a wild card. Good W for the Bengals, disappointing L for the Bills.
Packers 35-31 Cowboys
Man, weird call on the Cowboys' first drive turned an FG into a TD and the Packers generally sure-footed kicker kept missing extra points (missed 2 which forced them to go for a 2-pointer late which they also missed); 4 point swing plus a 3 point swing basically gave the Cowboys an extra TD to play with. And yet the Packers still came back and won this game on the road. Impressive performance for Aaron Rodgers and that Packer D stood up in the 2nd half. The Packers continue to win despite offensive line woes and a defense that is nice but not overwhelming. With the Falcons looking so-so, the Seahawks still struggling on offense, and the Cowboys piling up home losses, really looking like the Packers are the class of the NFC (and as they shore up the O-line, they could still yet emerge as a juggernaut). As for the Cowboys, well, they played okay, not a shameful performance but they got the breaks and the Packers didn't and their inability to make the most of them kinda shows that they're a 2nd tier (at best!) team in the NFC. Good W for the Packers, not a good game for the Cowboys.
Chiefs 42-34 Texans
I was watching baseball so I was in and out of this game--though I saw most that wild 4th quarter, where each team seem to be daring the other to score. The Chiefs are looking good, man, not overpowering but reliably solid in all phases of the game. With the Raiders struggling, the Steelers looking old and the Pats not their usual dominant selves, its all lining up for the Chiefs, right? The Texans lost JJ Watt, which is tough, but they've still got a great defense and I still believe in their foundling QB, so while this is a tough loss to a conference foe, I still think they're looking pretty good to win their division. Good W for the Chiefs, tough loss for the Texans (losing Watt more than losing the game).
Other results (surprising):
Panthers 27-24 Lions
I kinda believe in the Panthers, the fact that they're still getting W's without looking at all dominant is a good sign. But I also kinda believe in the Lions, especially at home, and I figured they'd find a way to pull it out against the Panthers. I didn't see much of this one, didn't get a feel for it, though clearly the Panthers came alive in the 3rd. Good road W for the Panthers, seems like a missed opportunity for the Lions.
Ravens 30-17 Raiders
Yeah, the Raiders with EJ Manuel under center are definitely not as strong as they could be, but man the Ravens have looked so bad lately (and not that good even when they were winning), that for them to pile up 30 points on the road against anyone is a shock. Ravens just need to pull it together and they can challenge for a wild card. Not sure about the Raiders, without Carr they might not be any good at all--and they weren't looking that great before he went out. Good W for the Ravens, not a good look for the Raiders.
Other results (not so surprising):
Jet 17-14 Browns
When two really bad teams get together anything can happen. The Jets are 3-2, I'm still convinced they don't win more than 4 games this year (home games against the Bills and Chargers are the only remotely winnable games left). The Browns play hard but they still need a QB, Kizer is not gonna get it done. The play hard though, they'll find some luck by year's end. Might be the last W for the Jets, still plenty more L's for the Browns ahead.
Niners 23-26 (OT) Colts
Ditto. (Except ain't nobody 3-2 in this contest!)
Titans 10-16 Dolphins
In a full-on matchup the Titans should be better and may well have pulled out this game. But without their QB, on the road, this was set up for the Dolphins to manage their way to a victory. Jay Cutler (wouldn't you rather have Matt Moore? I mean, wouldn't you have always preferred Matt Moore? Shouldn't Cutler have been brought to be the backup?), just had to Trent Dilfer his team to victory and looks like that's what happened. The Dolphins still have a pretty good D and pretty good running game, they're not a bad team just not a winning one. The Titans just need to get their QB back, get their identity back, find some swagger and they'll be fine, they've still got a chance to win that division. I kinda think if the Dolphins switch back to Moore, they could still be kinda good this year.
Chargers 27-22 Giants
Man, what an awful awful ugly ugly game. It's easy to say that Eli Manning is done but I'd say he's given little chance to succeed out there--and now without Odell Beckham (ugh! Thiesmann-ish what happened to him!), there's just nothing for NYG fans to look forward to except that top 5 pick which is pretty much guaranteed to be theirs. The Chargers, well, they don't have much to look forward to either, nor does Rivers. This was an ugly match of two ugly teams with ugly futures for their ugly fanbases. I'd say the Giants main priority at this point is convincing Eli to retire so they can start over with a new QB next year (though Odell may have no interest in that scenario). The Chargers just need to find some identity and win over LA.
Jags 30-9 Steelers
This wasn't that surprising to me considering that the Jags pass defense is really good and Roethlisberger is just not right out there (man, that 2004 draft class has finally turned to vinegar, huh?). The Jags have the luxury of playing with reckless abandon every week and against the Steelers I thought they'd have opportunities to make plays. The QB play is still pretty unbearable but that defense is legit. The Steelers, meanwhile, are rotting before our eyes like the portrait of Dorian Gray (and, yes, Oscar Wilde would probably be better than Roethlisberger right now), the defense is nice but not great and the offensive weapons just aren't getting the necessary service. There's still time for the Steelers to get some W's but if the Bengals are gonna be good again and if the Ravens ever figure it out, the Steelers might be in some trouble.
Cards 7-34 Eagles
Cards, too, are deteriorating quickly. Carson Palmer is looking Eli-ish out there: the numbers are actually better--okay even--but he's not getting W's any more. Meanwhile, the running game is completely gone, the special teams has no bite to it and the defense just can't hold it together. The Cards are basically in rebuild mode (wonder if they've figured that out yet). The Eagles are good and getting better. If the Cowboys continue to flounder, the Eagles are going to zoom past them with ease.
Seahawks 16-10 Rams
This was a statement game one way or the other: either the Rams would announce their presence or the Seahawks were would reiterate their dominance. Looks like it was a tough contest but the Rams came up short, which was to be expected. In the grand scheme of things the Seahawks are chasing the Packers, not worried about the Rams, so getting the W on the road was kinda big for them; and for the Rams, well, next week is another chance to show that they belong in the discussion of best teams in the NFC.
Vikings 20-17 Bears
The Vikings got the division W on the road, which is always a good thing, but subbing out Sam Bradford before halftime is awkward and strange, wonder what's up with their offense? And on the other side: Bears turned to the offense over to Mitch Trubisky and though I saw none of the game, early reports seem cautiously optimistic, which is kinda what I figured would happen.
Typically I've done power rankings after every 4 weeks but this year I've decided to do them every 6 weeks. I find that that final ranking doesn't really matter anyway, so might as well go for thirds rather fourths to get a fuller picture. So I'll do a ranking after next week's games.
Won (covered): Bengals, Jets, Panthers, Colts, Dolphins, Chargers, Eagles, Jags, Ravens, Seahawks, Packers, Chiefs,
Won (didn't cover): Patriots
Push: Vikings, Bears
Lost (covered): Bucs
Lost (didn't cover): Bills, Browns, Lions, Niners, Titans, Giants, Cards, Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Cowboys, Texans
Pats 19-14 Bucs
The Pats still haven't found their overpowering offensive form but the defense finally looked like they can win some games. That said, it really all came down to the fact that the Bucs' kicker missed 3 FG attempts. So are the Pats right again? Well, W on the road in a short week, defensive stand on the final drive, can't complain I guess. But, still....Brady, Belichick....not used to piling up FG's to eke out a W. Bucs are still a work in progress, huh? Yeah, I didn't fall for them this year, been burned too many times waiting for them to get it together. They've had their moments where they look for real but they'll have to make the playoffs at least once--at least!--before I start believing in them. Good W for the Pats, missed opportunity for the Bucs.
Bills 16-20 Bengals
Coming into this year I thought the Bills would have a good defense, so-so offense and be roughly an 8-8 team; I thought the Bengals would rebound from last year's disappointing run, regain their offensive form and the pass rush and take advantage of crappy Browns and Ravens teams and the depreciating Steelers. Well, so far, the Bills have been so stout on D that it makes them look pretty good and the Bengals started so poorly on offense that they've looked positively un-redeemable. That flipped back this week. The Bengals have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot (3 turnovers on Sunday, all flukes, all AJ Green's fault) and when they don't, that offense is actually pretty good. The Bills make the most of their opportunities (but are susceptible to big plays on defense) and keep games close, but that is precisely when the limitations of Tyrod Taylor become glaring (dude, you just knew he wasn't gonna come back and win in the end). There's still time for the Bengals, their division is looking pretty winnable right now; and for the Bills, well, if the Patriots really are devolving, then I guess maybe there's a shot but I don't see them challenging for a wild card. Good W for the Bengals, disappointing L for the Bills.
Packers 35-31 Cowboys
Man, weird call on the Cowboys' first drive turned an FG into a TD and the Packers generally sure-footed kicker kept missing extra points (missed 2 which forced them to go for a 2-pointer late which they also missed); 4 point swing plus a 3 point swing basically gave the Cowboys an extra TD to play with. And yet the Packers still came back and won this game on the road. Impressive performance for Aaron Rodgers and that Packer D stood up in the 2nd half. The Packers continue to win despite offensive line woes and a defense that is nice but not overwhelming. With the Falcons looking so-so, the Seahawks still struggling on offense, and the Cowboys piling up home losses, really looking like the Packers are the class of the NFC (and as they shore up the O-line, they could still yet emerge as a juggernaut). As for the Cowboys, well, they played okay, not a shameful performance but they got the breaks and the Packers didn't and their inability to make the most of them kinda shows that they're a 2nd tier (at best!) team in the NFC. Good W for the Packers, not a good game for the Cowboys.
Chiefs 42-34 Texans
I was watching baseball so I was in and out of this game--though I saw most that wild 4th quarter, where each team seem to be daring the other to score. The Chiefs are looking good, man, not overpowering but reliably solid in all phases of the game. With the Raiders struggling, the Steelers looking old and the Pats not their usual dominant selves, its all lining up for the Chiefs, right? The Texans lost JJ Watt, which is tough, but they've still got a great defense and I still believe in their foundling QB, so while this is a tough loss to a conference foe, I still think they're looking pretty good to win their division. Good W for the Chiefs, tough loss for the Texans (losing Watt more than losing the game).
Other results (surprising):
Panthers 27-24 Lions
I kinda believe in the Panthers, the fact that they're still getting W's without looking at all dominant is a good sign. But I also kinda believe in the Lions, especially at home, and I figured they'd find a way to pull it out against the Panthers. I didn't see much of this one, didn't get a feel for it, though clearly the Panthers came alive in the 3rd. Good road W for the Panthers, seems like a missed opportunity for the Lions.
Ravens 30-17 Raiders
Yeah, the Raiders with EJ Manuel under center are definitely not as strong as they could be, but man the Ravens have looked so bad lately (and not that good even when they were winning), that for them to pile up 30 points on the road against anyone is a shock. Ravens just need to pull it together and they can challenge for a wild card. Not sure about the Raiders, without Carr they might not be any good at all--and they weren't looking that great before he went out. Good W for the Ravens, not a good look for the Raiders.
Other results (not so surprising):
Jet 17-14 Browns
When two really bad teams get together anything can happen. The Jets are 3-2, I'm still convinced they don't win more than 4 games this year (home games against the Bills and Chargers are the only remotely winnable games left). The Browns play hard but they still need a QB, Kizer is not gonna get it done. The play hard though, they'll find some luck by year's end. Might be the last W for the Jets, still plenty more L's for the Browns ahead.
Niners 23-26 (OT) Colts
Ditto. (Except ain't nobody 3-2 in this contest!)
Titans 10-16 Dolphins
In a full-on matchup the Titans should be better and may well have pulled out this game. But without their QB, on the road, this was set up for the Dolphins to manage their way to a victory. Jay Cutler (wouldn't you rather have Matt Moore? I mean, wouldn't you have always preferred Matt Moore? Shouldn't Cutler have been brought to be the backup?), just had to Trent Dilfer his team to victory and looks like that's what happened. The Dolphins still have a pretty good D and pretty good running game, they're not a bad team just not a winning one. The Titans just need to get their QB back, get their identity back, find some swagger and they'll be fine, they've still got a chance to win that division. I kinda think if the Dolphins switch back to Moore, they could still be kinda good this year.
Chargers 27-22 Giants
Man, what an awful awful ugly ugly game. It's easy to say that Eli Manning is done but I'd say he's given little chance to succeed out there--and now without Odell Beckham (ugh! Thiesmann-ish what happened to him!), there's just nothing for NYG fans to look forward to except that top 5 pick which is pretty much guaranteed to be theirs. The Chargers, well, they don't have much to look forward to either, nor does Rivers. This was an ugly match of two ugly teams with ugly futures for their ugly fanbases. I'd say the Giants main priority at this point is convincing Eli to retire so they can start over with a new QB next year (though Odell may have no interest in that scenario). The Chargers just need to find some identity and win over LA.
Jags 30-9 Steelers
This wasn't that surprising to me considering that the Jags pass defense is really good and Roethlisberger is just not right out there (man, that 2004 draft class has finally turned to vinegar, huh?). The Jags have the luxury of playing with reckless abandon every week and against the Steelers I thought they'd have opportunities to make plays. The QB play is still pretty unbearable but that defense is legit. The Steelers, meanwhile, are rotting before our eyes like the portrait of Dorian Gray (and, yes, Oscar Wilde would probably be better than Roethlisberger right now), the defense is nice but not great and the offensive weapons just aren't getting the necessary service. There's still time for the Steelers to get some W's but if the Bengals are gonna be good again and if the Ravens ever figure it out, the Steelers might be in some trouble.
Cards 7-34 Eagles
Cards, too, are deteriorating quickly. Carson Palmer is looking Eli-ish out there: the numbers are actually better--okay even--but he's not getting W's any more. Meanwhile, the running game is completely gone, the special teams has no bite to it and the defense just can't hold it together. The Cards are basically in rebuild mode (wonder if they've figured that out yet). The Eagles are good and getting better. If the Cowboys continue to flounder, the Eagles are going to zoom past them with ease.
Seahawks 16-10 Rams
This was a statement game one way or the other: either the Rams would announce their presence or the Seahawks were would reiterate their dominance. Looks like it was a tough contest but the Rams came up short, which was to be expected. In the grand scheme of things the Seahawks are chasing the Packers, not worried about the Rams, so getting the W on the road was kinda big for them; and for the Rams, well, next week is another chance to show that they belong in the discussion of best teams in the NFC.
Vikings 20-17 Bears
The Vikings got the division W on the road, which is always a good thing, but subbing out Sam Bradford before halftime is awkward and strange, wonder what's up with their offense? And on the other side: Bears turned to the offense over to Mitch Trubisky and though I saw none of the game, early reports seem cautiously optimistic, which is kinda what I figured would happen.
Typically I've done power rankings after every 4 weeks but this year I've decided to do them every 6 weeks. I find that that final ranking doesn't really matter anyway, so might as well go for thirds rather fourths to get a fuller picture. So I'll do a ranking after next week's games.
Won (covered): Bengals, Jets, Panthers, Colts, Dolphins, Chargers, Eagles, Jags, Ravens, Seahawks, Packers, Chiefs,
Won (didn't cover): Patriots
Push: Vikings, Bears
Lost (covered): Bucs
Lost (didn't cover): Bills, Browns, Lions, Niners, Titans, Giants, Cards, Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Cowboys, Texans
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