2018-19: 17-65
Draft picks: 3,55
Signed for next season ($36m): Lance Thomas (not guaranteed), Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr, Kevin Knox, Alonzo Trier, Henry Ellenson, Damyean Dotson, Mitchell Robinson
I think Lance Thomas will be bought out to make room for free agents, while the rest will make a fine 2nd string (or trade bait for non-free agents).
Since Ntilikina is the next highest salary, I would expect him to get involved in any deal they make this summer.
Smith still has time to blossom, I'd give him all the minutes next season.
Knox can't be as bad as he looked last season, I'd give him all the minutes.
Trier looks like a really great 2nd string PG, he's the 6th Man candidate.
Ellenson is a big kid who is reasonably smart and has okay hands. Fine 2nd string guy, he's probably getting 5-15 minutes next year.
I still kinda like Dotson, not a big star, not a lot of minutes, but a decent defensive rotation big man.
Robinson is a potential star (and there's nothing better going on in NYK), give him all the minutes.
This summer's free agents: Deandre Jordan, Mario Hezonja, Emmanual Mudiay, Noah Vonleh, Luke Kornet, John Jenkins, Kadeem Allen, Isaish Hicks, Biully Garrett
I think they bring back Jordan, started taking a lot of criticism in Dallas but I never understood why, I think he's still an effective presence down low. I can see Vonleh coming back, too, if the money is low enough. The rest I think will be elsewhere next year.
Next year's lineup:
Wow, all year long the talk was of the Knicks landing Durant and Kyrie and Zion and then they'd be awesome forever. Well, Zion is not coming, Durant won't be around next year and Kyrie seems to wanna play in Brooklyn instead; and, just for good measure, Demarcus Cousins reinjured his leg and Kemba Walker is said to be headed to the Lakers. So, uh, what do the Knicks have left?
I'll go ahead and throw out a pointless trade idea right here:
Knicks get PG Mike Conley (2yrs/$32.5m next year); Grizzlies get #3 pick, Frank Ntilikina (2yrs/$4.8m next year, team option the year after that)
If I'm the Grizzlies, I'm all about sucking next year, let's get the process working! Their competition for next year is gonna be the pre-season top 5 Memphis Tigers, so the Grizzlies may as well start scouting that badass recruiting class. The Grizzlies can take Ntilikina back as a warm body to replace Conley (and not win games) and to sweeten the deal for the Knicks (to help dump salary).
The Knicks are all about the free agents now, they don't really need that #3 pick--Zion and Morant are one thing but beyond that, they'd be better off with someone like Conley. They can start with 2 years of Conley, give 5 years to Durant, re-sign Jordan (say, 2yrs/$30m?) and still have a ton of space to build around that trio. Personally, I'd aim for Patrick Beverley, Willie Cauley-Stein and Paul Millsap and maybe even Austin Rivers (though I'm guessing JJ Reddick or Tobias Harris or Trevor Ariza would be the sexier targets). Oh well, they'd still have a ton of money even after adding Conley and Durant if they went this route.
That #3 pick gives them a shot at a currently unavailable big star which is a much better get for the Knicks than another rookie that sucks up attention and doesn't get it done (*). The strategy is thus: find a team with one last good star that is ready to start tanking. I don't think that gets them Blake Griffin (Pistons), Chris Paul (Rockets), or Kevin Love (Cavs). But the Grizzlies are gonna suck anyway, sparing Mike Conley seems like the humane thing to do, and getting on to the re-build may as well start now. And Conley, Durant and Deandre with all those youngsters is a good start in the East.
Bringing back Deandre Jordan gives them something like a star to lure others in with. The young players (Smith Jr, Trier, Knox, Dotson, Robinson,even Ellenson could be useful) are a little raggedy but still has promise as a supporting cast. They can still go try for Durant (seemed like a foregone conclusion all year long, now I don't see it happening) and then just try to tank out another year before Durant joins the team. If Durant signs, then they go for another year of short term deals with also-rans of recent drafts: Stanley Johnson, Frank Kaminski, Justin Patton, Jake Layman, Elfrid Peyton, etc. Then aim for another draft pick and a new raft of free agents because they'd still have a pretty flexible roster next summer.
But, man, they thought they were getting Durant and Kyrie and Zion and now they got...what do they got?
(*) Let's be honest: the Knicks, like the Cubs, don't actually need to be any good to make a shit ton of money and suck up all the media chatter. And that whole 'building from the ground up' approach just takes forever, why not go for the gusto? Well....the reason most teams don't do that is because that approach virtually never works. But this is the Knicks, it doesn't matter what they do, they're gonna get all the attention and sell out games even if they're starting Geno Smith at PG.
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
2017 MLB Post-Season Predictions (part 4)
I am a Cleveland Indians fan and I watched them a lot this year. I don't recall their games against the Astros but I remember being very impressed with the Dodgers (best team I saw all year long). The Astros owned the first third of the season, the Dodgers owned the second. Both had their struggles, too, but fortunately for them they got the struggles out of their system before the playoffs started (not true for my Indians, alas).
Astros handled the Red Sox without much problem; Yankees caught the Indians backpedaling. The Yanks were able to steal W's at home against the Astros but that team isn't quite ready, they got further than they should have this year and the Astros were able to right the ship and take the victory.
Dodgers handled the D-Backs without much problem; the Cubs caught the Nationals at less than their best. The Cubs have a lot talent--thought they should've been the dominant team all year long--but they just weren't up to it this season and the Dodgers mowed them down easily.
Both of these teams dodged a bullet: Indians at their best and Nationals at their best would've challenged both of these teams, may have even gotten past them. But champions get lucky, too, that doesn't mean the Dodgers and Astros are undeserving. Not at all, they're both excellent squads and did what they had to do to get to this point.
My first thought is the Dodgers have deeper pitching, more variation in the lineup and the home field advantage, gotta go with the Dodgers. But the Astros as an underdog is very intriguing: they're a scrappy team, the kind of team that probably loves the idea that no one thinks they can do it. Baseball is a momentum game, gotta figure the Astros have a good shot at steering the series their way.
Astros handled the Red Sox without much problem; Yankees caught the Indians backpedaling. The Yanks were able to steal W's at home against the Astros but that team isn't quite ready, they got further than they should have this year and the Astros were able to right the ship and take the victory.
Dodgers handled the D-Backs without much problem; the Cubs caught the Nationals at less than their best. The Cubs have a lot talent--thought they should've been the dominant team all year long--but they just weren't up to it this season and the Dodgers mowed them down easily.
Both of these teams dodged a bullet: Indians at their best and Nationals at their best would've challenged both of these teams, may have even gotten past them. But champions get lucky, too, that doesn't mean the Dodgers and Astros are undeserving. Not at all, they're both excellent squads and did what they had to do to get to this point.
My first thought is the Dodgers have deeper pitching, more variation in the lineup and the home field advantage, gotta go with the Dodgers. But the Astros as an underdog is very intriguing: they're a scrappy team, the kind of team that probably loves the idea that no one thinks they can do it. Baseball is a momentum game, gotta figure the Astros have a good shot at steering the series their way.
I think the Dodgers are better and have the better chance at winning, but that's precisely what gives the Astros a chance to sneak the whole Series. I was going to say Dodgers in 6 but I think I've talked myself into Dodgers in 7. Should be a hell of a Series, I'm looking forward to it.
Monday, July 4, 2016
Euro Semifinals
Portugal (PKs) 1-1 Poland
Man, Portugal are so boring. Why? Seems like they'd be an exciting veteran side but instead they slow everything to a glacial pace. Can't deny I'm rooting against them for this reason alone. Thought Poland played well but outside of an early goal, they never looked decisive in the box.
Wales 3-1 Belgium
For all the talent Beligum possesses, they never look dangerous to me. I thought Lukaku had good chances in front of the goal, I expected Belgium to keep feeding him but it never happened. Wales controlled the ball well and played exciting soccer, made the most of their opportunities.
Germany (PKs) 1-1 Italy
A strangely dull game. Neither team wanted to push forward, both seemed happy to play for PKs, which is odd considering how badly both teams competed in the shoot out. I thought going in that the winner of this match would take the tourney but now I'm not so sure.
France 5-2 Iceland
Great game! Kinda felt bad for Iceland, they played so well despite the scoreline. France's 1st and 4th goals were well played balls over the top that left a forward alone with the goalies; France's 2nd and 5th goals were overpowering players on set plays; the 3rd goal really should've been saved (I think he just didn't see the initial shot, left him a step behind the play). Iceland played physical (thought the ref favored them for the most part) and seemed dangerous all through the match (way more than Portugal, Belgium, Germany or Italy, for example). (Looking back I wish Iceland had matched up against Portugal)
Semfinals
Wales-Portugal
Ain't gonna lie: Portugal is boring and I don't want them in the Final. Wales is exciting, frisky on the wings, relentless up the middle, fun to watch. Go Wales!
France-Germany
Germany seems young and tentative, surviving on pure athleticism rather than their usual guile and grace. France is playing really well right now, I think they're the team to beat.
Man, Portugal are so boring. Why? Seems like they'd be an exciting veteran side but instead they slow everything to a glacial pace. Can't deny I'm rooting against them for this reason alone. Thought Poland played well but outside of an early goal, they never looked decisive in the box.
Wales 3-1 Belgium
For all the talent Beligum possesses, they never look dangerous to me. I thought Lukaku had good chances in front of the goal, I expected Belgium to keep feeding him but it never happened. Wales controlled the ball well and played exciting soccer, made the most of their opportunities.
Germany (PKs) 1-1 Italy
A strangely dull game. Neither team wanted to push forward, both seemed happy to play for PKs, which is odd considering how badly both teams competed in the shoot out. I thought going in that the winner of this match would take the tourney but now I'm not so sure.
France 5-2 Iceland
Great game! Kinda felt bad for Iceland, they played so well despite the scoreline. France's 1st and 4th goals were well played balls over the top that left a forward alone with the goalies; France's 2nd and 5th goals were overpowering players on set plays; the 3rd goal really should've been saved (I think he just didn't see the initial shot, left him a step behind the play). Iceland played physical (thought the ref favored them for the most part) and seemed dangerous all through the match (way more than Portugal, Belgium, Germany or Italy, for example). (Looking back I wish Iceland had matched up against Portugal)
Semfinals
Wales-Portugal
Ain't gonna lie: Portugal is boring and I don't want them in the Final. Wales is exciting, frisky on the wings, relentless up the middle, fun to watch. Go Wales!
France-Germany
Germany seems young and tentative, surviving on pure athleticism rather than their usual guile and grace. France is playing really well right now, I think they're the team to beat.
Sunday, June 19, 2016
NBA Finals Game Seven
As of six games, the Cavs and Warriors have each scored 610 points...and yet none of the games was even close. Amazing. Warriors are a 5 point fave tonight and though each of the games has been decided by double digits, tonight's game is gonna be close, right? I mean this series has been fantastic, surely the last game will be one for the ages.
Tonight's game is a continuation of the thesis from the beginning: if Klay and Curry shoot the lights out, the Warriors will win comfortably; if not, the Cavs have a great chance to finish off the comeback.
Iguodala's got back spasms, Bogut is out, Curry has nagging injuries, Draymond is just nagging, Klay has yet to really have a good game, Barnes has been kinda terrible lately, Livingston needs to have a good game, Speight needs to score some points, I feel like Barbosa and Varejao have done more than their share and I can't see either of them doing much tonight.
Lebron's at his very best, Kyrie has shown the ability to score at will, Love is much maligned (but not that bad), Tristan has been a great physical presence and a monster on the boards, Smith has had moments but generally hasn't contributed much, Shumpert continues to un-impress me, Dellevadova has kinda disappeared, Frye needs to score some points tonight, Williams and Mozgov probably won't get much time tonight.
I thought the Warriors would win Game Five without Draymond. I thought the Warriors would find their shooting touch and win Game Six. Nope on both of those. Cavs are really rolling right now and the Warriors are scuffling. I still think the Warriors are the better team and at home I think Klay and Curry will score big points. I think Livingston will have an important role tonight, Speights needs to score off the bench. Iguodala has to suffer through but I don't see him being terribly effective on the offensive end.
Lebron will keep bringing it (though if he was better in Game Four, this might be over by now), Kyrie will overdo it, Smith will hit enough shots to be important, Tristan needs to get under Draymond's skin. For a surprise pivotal player, I'll go with Channing Frye: he had a few big games earlier in the playoffs but hasn't seen much of the floor in the Finals. I think he'll get some time tonight and if he's scoring buckets, he could spark the charge for the Cavs.
I'll go with the Warriors (-5). I've got no rooting interest, just a fan of the game. Man, I'm looking forward to it!
Tonight's game is a continuation of the thesis from the beginning: if Klay and Curry shoot the lights out, the Warriors will win comfortably; if not, the Cavs have a great chance to finish off the comeback.
Iguodala's got back spasms, Bogut is out, Curry has nagging injuries, Draymond is just nagging, Klay has yet to really have a good game, Barnes has been kinda terrible lately, Livingston needs to have a good game, Speight needs to score some points, I feel like Barbosa and Varejao have done more than their share and I can't see either of them doing much tonight.
Lebron's at his very best, Kyrie has shown the ability to score at will, Love is much maligned (but not that bad), Tristan has been a great physical presence and a monster on the boards, Smith has had moments but generally hasn't contributed much, Shumpert continues to un-impress me, Dellevadova has kinda disappeared, Frye needs to score some points tonight, Williams and Mozgov probably won't get much time tonight.
I thought the Warriors would win Game Five without Draymond. I thought the Warriors would find their shooting touch and win Game Six. Nope on both of those. Cavs are really rolling right now and the Warriors are scuffling. I still think the Warriors are the better team and at home I think Klay and Curry will score big points. I think Livingston will have an important role tonight, Speights needs to score off the bench. Iguodala has to suffer through but I don't see him being terribly effective on the offensive end.
Lebron will keep bringing it (though if he was better in Game Four, this might be over by now), Kyrie will overdo it, Smith will hit enough shots to be important, Tristan needs to get under Draymond's skin. For a surprise pivotal player, I'll go with Channing Frye: he had a few big games earlier in the playoffs but hasn't seen much of the floor in the Finals. I think he'll get some time tonight and if he's scoring buckets, he could spark the charge for the Cavs.
I'll go with the Warriors (-5). I've got no rooting interest, just a fan of the game. Man, I'm looking forward to it!
Thursday, June 16, 2016
The Finals So Far
Tonight is Game Six in Cleveland, Warriors up 3-2, Draymond back from suspension, Bogut out for the rest of the Series. I think the Warriors wrap it up tonight.
Klay has been magnificent throughout the post-season but except for a 25 point performance in Game Four, he's been pretty ordinary (which is to say, way below Klay's ordinary) against the Cavs. Is he just tired from a long season (two long seasons with an appearance for Team USA in there)? Could be. Shooters rely on their legs and his legs must be pretty worn down by now. He's such a phenomenal shooter, just flings the ball toward the basket and expects it to go in. He built his rep on defense, which has been fine but nothing superlative this series. Klay torched the Rockets, carried the Warriors against the Blazers, was legendary against the Thunder, where has his game gone? I think he shows up big tonight, I expect old timey Klay, bombing 3's and running the floor like a champ.
Curry has also been pretty so-so so far in this series. In Game Three the Cavs stumbled onto the strategy of working on the defensive side (I thought it akin to running right at a scary defensive end rather than running away from him), but when the refs swallowed their whistles in the 2nd half of Game Four (and have yet to un-swallow them), that strategy kinda dried up and the Cavs were stuck watching Curry drop bombs on them. Rumors are that nagging injuries (shoulder, knee, thigh) are starting to catch up to Curry and that's probably true. He only needs one more win, though, to get his vacation started. Without Draymond in the last game, the Warriors' defense sagged in the middle and the Cavs were able to get hot, which means Curry has to work more than usual and with less profit. Tonight they'll be without Bogut but that's an absence they can weather a little better (expect to see Ezeli shooting lot of FT's tonight), as long as Draymond's back to plug the lane and get the transition going. Curry needs to hit shots like his old self, if he falters the Cavs will hang around. I think he will hit tonight. I think the Curry-Klay-Draymon trio comes up big back in Cleveland.
Draymond, for my money, was the team's MVP this season: his work on both ends makes the effortless awesomeness of Curry and Klay possible. Without Draymond those two have to work harder on defense and harder to get good shots, they're still good but their ceilings are quite a bit lower. The trouble with Draymond is that his fiery temper is one technical away from getting him run out of this series. In Game Four, when all was lost, Lebron hit the emergency switch (which I think he truly wanted to avoid and realized he couldn't) and got under Draymond's skin resulting in a suspension for Game Five. The Cavs will be coming at Draymon hard tonight--HARD--and he better keep it together. Without Bogut, Draymond will be expected to do even more than usual (especially in the first few minutes of each half) and if he falters the Cavs will pounce. But I think Draymond holds it together, indeed, I think he'll be at his absolute best tonight, leaving the pundits to argue over who was the MVP of this series.
Bogut has been his usual solid self, thought he was particularly effective in Game Two. He twisted his knee in the last game and has been ruled out for the Series. He doesn't play a lot of minutes any more but he still plays good D and is a steadying force. He will be missed though his absence isn't catastrophic for this team. Ezeli isn't as steady, isn't any better as an FT shooter and is more likely to foul out. Draymond and Iguodala will have to do more tonight.
Iguodala has been good but not great. The conundrum of the Warriors series is that really no one has been great so far. They've all been pretty good which has been good enough for three wins out of five but someone will have to be a big dog to get one more win. It might be Iguodala. I think he should mark Kyrie tonight. Let Lebron do his thing and put the clamp on Kyrie, make Love or Jefferson or Smith make big plays. If Iguodala shuts down Kyrie, I think the Warriors win easily. And if Iguodala scores effectively tonight that might be the same thing.
Livingston was just untouchable in Games One and Two and though he's slipped back down to earth somewhat, he's been really good in this Series and really important to the Warriors' chances of winning. The key to tonight's game is Klay and Curry regaining their form and going for big points, but Livingston has a part to play in keeping the Cavs off balance and keeping the scoring going. If Livingston effectively attacks the lane, Klay and Curry will get better shots and the Cav defenders become more foul prone.
Barbosa played great minutes in Golden State but back in Cleveland its up to Varejao to get the important minutes off the bench. Varejao was always a pretty good player (the poor man's Joakim Noah), it was his spotty health (and ridiculously huge contract) that has held him back in recent years. But he only needs ten good minutes tonight to make a big difference. Keeping Love off the boards, getting an extra foul on Tristan, stifling Kyrie once or twice, making a coupla good passes, if he can do those things a few times in this game, it'll have a big impact. Also look for McAdoo to get some important minutes.
Lebron has been great, as usual. That said, I thought he let Game Four get away from him: he attacked the basket well but he was always looking to pass rather than finish and the Cavs did a great job of getting the Warriors in foul trouble in the 1st half (there were a few plays were Klay was afraid to play defense) and then abandoned that aggressiveness in the 2nd half. Weird game. And when it was spiraling out of control, Lebron had to take his opportunity to get in Draymond's head. I don't think he wanted to do it but the chance to get Draymond ruled out for a game or two was too great to pass up, so he let Draymond's typical taunts wind him up when he would normally just ignore them and goaded Draymond into making a mistake. Worth noting that that option is still in the table in tonight's game: one more tech and Draymond is suspended again. I think he'll attack Curry and Draymond as much as possible. And while he'd like to be his playmaking self, I think he needs to score 30 at least tonight. And I reckon he will.
Kyrie was bananas in Game Five, very Klay-like from beginning to end. He knows he can do that so I think he'll try to do it again. Double edge sword: the upside is Klay-like setting records with his efficiency, downside is Westbrook-like overplaying, overdribbling, overshooting and forgetting his teammates. Will we get Klay Kyrie tonight or Russell Kyrie? I'm voting for the latter. I think he gets hot early but shoots himself out and tries too hard, forcing Lebron to pick up the slack. Once that happens, the Warriors go into lights-out mode and finish the game comfortably in the 4th quarter. We'll see.
Love has been much maligned in this series and while he deserves some of that blame, he doesn't deserve as much as he's getting. The consensus is that he's lowering his own value but this is a hot take culture: if he goes for 20 tonight, everyone'll think he's the Series MVP. Love has been generally ineffective on both sides but he hasn't been awful. He's slow on defensive switches and not a great perimeter defender but he's gonna have opportunities to make plays and knock down shots. If he does those things, the Cavs will hang around to the end; if he doesn't, he'll be putting his house up for sale by the end of the week. (Honestly, I say either way, he won't be back next year; he's not a good fit, he never was--in fact, don't you think the Cavs could really use Andrew Wiggins in this series?)
Tristan Thompson has played well this series, showing better footwork and perimeter D than I would've thought possible. His FT% is deathly but he's solid around the rim and I expect him to make plays against Ezeli tonight. The Cavs need everything they can get, Tristan's rebounds and D will be impactful. He'll have to punish Draymond and help Love whenever possible.
JR Smith is a puzzle: he can go from brilliant to non-existent and back as fast as any player I can think of. In Game One he played 37 minutes and had 3 FGA. 3! Dude, what is out there for except scoring? If he's only gonna get 3 shots in 37 minutes then either something is seriously wrong with the gameplan or he's having a monumentally bad night. He was good in Game Three but otherwise hasn't given the Cavs much this series. I expect Lebron to look for Smith early tonight, if he gets going he can be the difference in keeping the series alive. Otherwise, he needs to D up Klay like his life depends on it.
Richard Jefferson has been a surprise in this series, he's a really nifty scorer around the rim. Unfortunately in Game Five he became turnover prone whereas before he was quite sure handed with the ball. He needs to keep his nerve tonight and score points off the bench, because I don't think Lebron + Kyrie will be enough tonight. If he makes buckets, the Cavs will hang around.
Dellavedova was a hero in last year's finals, playing waaaaaay over his shoes and was a top quality agitator for most of that series. This year, with Kyrie back, Delly has mostly disappeared (his agitator role was usurped by Varejao to the tune of Delly getting called for a foul that he was in fact the victim of), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few important minutes off the bench tonight. The attack on Curry and Draymond needs to come from anyone and everyone and Delly can be quite annoying out there, and that'll be his job. He may not score any points but he's got 6 fouls to give and I expect to see him giving them.
A coupla weeks ago I heard David Thorpe on a podcast talk some serious shit about Iman Shumpert's game. I gotta admit ever since then I've watched Shumpert with a different eye. Thorpe's right, dude, Shumpert kinda sucks. He can't even dribble with confidence. His defensive effort is solid but his footwork isn't great and he's not much of a rebounder and offensively he can't be relied on for anything. Seriously, man, watch him. He's pretty terrible. I guess he'll get his shot against Klay but if he's getting torched, expect him to shift over to Ezeli-hacking.
I'm not sure when Mozgov disappeared from the Cavs philosophy but I can't help thinking he's better than they think. He's so far out of the rotation now that I doubt he'll play big minutes ever again but he can agitate and pester, he might get some minutes tonight to hack on Ezeli or frustrate Draymond. And Mo Williams...I forgot about that guy.
I expect the Cavs to return to the strategy of wearing out Curry on defense, to go hard at Draymond early and often and to foul Ezeli as much as possible.
I expect the Warriors to stifle Kyrie, get masterful bench minutes and make buckets.
If both of my expectations bear out, I think the Warriors' scoring will be too much. The Warriors were money night after night this season and though they've been quite a bit less sharp in the playoffs, they're still quite capable of putting up big big numbers. Bogut's out and Draymond might have to tone down his game a touch, but I think the scorers will score and the Series ends tonight.
Klay has been magnificent throughout the post-season but except for a 25 point performance in Game Four, he's been pretty ordinary (which is to say, way below Klay's ordinary) against the Cavs. Is he just tired from a long season (two long seasons with an appearance for Team USA in there)? Could be. Shooters rely on their legs and his legs must be pretty worn down by now. He's such a phenomenal shooter, just flings the ball toward the basket and expects it to go in. He built his rep on defense, which has been fine but nothing superlative this series. Klay torched the Rockets, carried the Warriors against the Blazers, was legendary against the Thunder, where has his game gone? I think he shows up big tonight, I expect old timey Klay, bombing 3's and running the floor like a champ.
Curry has also been pretty so-so so far in this series. In Game Three the Cavs stumbled onto the strategy of working on the defensive side (I thought it akin to running right at a scary defensive end rather than running away from him), but when the refs swallowed their whistles in the 2nd half of Game Four (and have yet to un-swallow them), that strategy kinda dried up and the Cavs were stuck watching Curry drop bombs on them. Rumors are that nagging injuries (shoulder, knee, thigh) are starting to catch up to Curry and that's probably true. He only needs one more win, though, to get his vacation started. Without Draymond in the last game, the Warriors' defense sagged in the middle and the Cavs were able to get hot, which means Curry has to work more than usual and with less profit. Tonight they'll be without Bogut but that's an absence they can weather a little better (expect to see Ezeli shooting lot of FT's tonight), as long as Draymond's back to plug the lane and get the transition going. Curry needs to hit shots like his old self, if he falters the Cavs will hang around. I think he will hit tonight. I think the Curry-Klay-Draymon trio comes up big back in Cleveland.
Draymond, for my money, was the team's MVP this season: his work on both ends makes the effortless awesomeness of Curry and Klay possible. Without Draymond those two have to work harder on defense and harder to get good shots, they're still good but their ceilings are quite a bit lower. The trouble with Draymond is that his fiery temper is one technical away from getting him run out of this series. In Game Four, when all was lost, Lebron hit the emergency switch (which I think he truly wanted to avoid and realized he couldn't) and got under Draymond's skin resulting in a suspension for Game Five. The Cavs will be coming at Draymon hard tonight--HARD--and he better keep it together. Without Bogut, Draymond will be expected to do even more than usual (especially in the first few minutes of each half) and if he falters the Cavs will pounce. But I think Draymond holds it together, indeed, I think he'll be at his absolute best tonight, leaving the pundits to argue over who was the MVP of this series.
Bogut has been his usual solid self, thought he was particularly effective in Game Two. He twisted his knee in the last game and has been ruled out for the Series. He doesn't play a lot of minutes any more but he still plays good D and is a steadying force. He will be missed though his absence isn't catastrophic for this team. Ezeli isn't as steady, isn't any better as an FT shooter and is more likely to foul out. Draymond and Iguodala will have to do more tonight.
Iguodala has been good but not great. The conundrum of the Warriors series is that really no one has been great so far. They've all been pretty good which has been good enough for three wins out of five but someone will have to be a big dog to get one more win. It might be Iguodala. I think he should mark Kyrie tonight. Let Lebron do his thing and put the clamp on Kyrie, make Love or Jefferson or Smith make big plays. If Iguodala shuts down Kyrie, I think the Warriors win easily. And if Iguodala scores effectively tonight that might be the same thing.
Livingston was just untouchable in Games One and Two and though he's slipped back down to earth somewhat, he's been really good in this Series and really important to the Warriors' chances of winning. The key to tonight's game is Klay and Curry regaining their form and going for big points, but Livingston has a part to play in keeping the Cavs off balance and keeping the scoring going. If Livingston effectively attacks the lane, Klay and Curry will get better shots and the Cav defenders become more foul prone.
Barbosa played great minutes in Golden State but back in Cleveland its up to Varejao to get the important minutes off the bench. Varejao was always a pretty good player (the poor man's Joakim Noah), it was his spotty health (and ridiculously huge contract) that has held him back in recent years. But he only needs ten good minutes tonight to make a big difference. Keeping Love off the boards, getting an extra foul on Tristan, stifling Kyrie once or twice, making a coupla good passes, if he can do those things a few times in this game, it'll have a big impact. Also look for McAdoo to get some important minutes.
Lebron has been great, as usual. That said, I thought he let Game Four get away from him: he attacked the basket well but he was always looking to pass rather than finish and the Cavs did a great job of getting the Warriors in foul trouble in the 1st half (there were a few plays were Klay was afraid to play defense) and then abandoned that aggressiveness in the 2nd half. Weird game. And when it was spiraling out of control, Lebron had to take his opportunity to get in Draymond's head. I don't think he wanted to do it but the chance to get Draymond ruled out for a game or two was too great to pass up, so he let Draymond's typical taunts wind him up when he would normally just ignore them and goaded Draymond into making a mistake. Worth noting that that option is still in the table in tonight's game: one more tech and Draymond is suspended again. I think he'll attack Curry and Draymond as much as possible. And while he'd like to be his playmaking self, I think he needs to score 30 at least tonight. And I reckon he will.
Kyrie was bananas in Game Five, very Klay-like from beginning to end. He knows he can do that so I think he'll try to do it again. Double edge sword: the upside is Klay-like setting records with his efficiency, downside is Westbrook-like overplaying, overdribbling, overshooting and forgetting his teammates. Will we get Klay Kyrie tonight or Russell Kyrie? I'm voting for the latter. I think he gets hot early but shoots himself out and tries too hard, forcing Lebron to pick up the slack. Once that happens, the Warriors go into lights-out mode and finish the game comfortably in the 4th quarter. We'll see.
Love has been much maligned in this series and while he deserves some of that blame, he doesn't deserve as much as he's getting. The consensus is that he's lowering his own value but this is a hot take culture: if he goes for 20 tonight, everyone'll think he's the Series MVP. Love has been generally ineffective on both sides but he hasn't been awful. He's slow on defensive switches and not a great perimeter defender but he's gonna have opportunities to make plays and knock down shots. If he does those things, the Cavs will hang around to the end; if he doesn't, he'll be putting his house up for sale by the end of the week. (Honestly, I say either way, he won't be back next year; he's not a good fit, he never was--in fact, don't you think the Cavs could really use Andrew Wiggins in this series?)
Tristan Thompson has played well this series, showing better footwork and perimeter D than I would've thought possible. His FT% is deathly but he's solid around the rim and I expect him to make plays against Ezeli tonight. The Cavs need everything they can get, Tristan's rebounds and D will be impactful. He'll have to punish Draymond and help Love whenever possible.
JR Smith is a puzzle: he can go from brilliant to non-existent and back as fast as any player I can think of. In Game One he played 37 minutes and had 3 FGA. 3! Dude, what is out there for except scoring? If he's only gonna get 3 shots in 37 minutes then either something is seriously wrong with the gameplan or he's having a monumentally bad night. He was good in Game Three but otherwise hasn't given the Cavs much this series. I expect Lebron to look for Smith early tonight, if he gets going he can be the difference in keeping the series alive. Otherwise, he needs to D up Klay like his life depends on it.
Richard Jefferson has been a surprise in this series, he's a really nifty scorer around the rim. Unfortunately in Game Five he became turnover prone whereas before he was quite sure handed with the ball. He needs to keep his nerve tonight and score points off the bench, because I don't think Lebron + Kyrie will be enough tonight. If he makes buckets, the Cavs will hang around.
Dellavedova was a hero in last year's finals, playing waaaaaay over his shoes and was a top quality agitator for most of that series. This year, with Kyrie back, Delly has mostly disappeared (his agitator role was usurped by Varejao to the tune of Delly getting called for a foul that he was in fact the victim of), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few important minutes off the bench tonight. The attack on Curry and Draymond needs to come from anyone and everyone and Delly can be quite annoying out there, and that'll be his job. He may not score any points but he's got 6 fouls to give and I expect to see him giving them.
A coupla weeks ago I heard David Thorpe on a podcast talk some serious shit about Iman Shumpert's game. I gotta admit ever since then I've watched Shumpert with a different eye. Thorpe's right, dude, Shumpert kinda sucks. He can't even dribble with confidence. His defensive effort is solid but his footwork isn't great and he's not much of a rebounder and offensively he can't be relied on for anything. Seriously, man, watch him. He's pretty terrible. I guess he'll get his shot against Klay but if he's getting torched, expect him to shift over to Ezeli-hacking.
I'm not sure when Mozgov disappeared from the Cavs philosophy but I can't help thinking he's better than they think. He's so far out of the rotation now that I doubt he'll play big minutes ever again but he can agitate and pester, he might get some minutes tonight to hack on Ezeli or frustrate Draymond. And Mo Williams...I forgot about that guy.
I expect the Cavs to return to the strategy of wearing out Curry on defense, to go hard at Draymond early and often and to foul Ezeli as much as possible.
I expect the Warriors to stifle Kyrie, get masterful bench minutes and make buckets.
If both of my expectations bear out, I think the Warriors' scoring will be too much. The Warriors were money night after night this season and though they've been quite a bit less sharp in the playoffs, they're still quite capable of putting up big big numbers. Bogut's out and Draymond might have to tone down his game a touch, but I think the scorers will score and the Series ends tonight.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Kooky Factoid
The Warriors only played 2 OT games this season: W at Pelicans, L to Bulls at home (2nd and final regular season home loss for the Warriors). In both cases they lost their next game, both on the road. They've now played 2 OT games in the Finals: W the 1st, L the 2nd, L in the next game (which just happens to have been on the road). See: numbers! Pile up enough history and you'll be able to pretend like you can see the future. Vegas still thinks the Warriors are winning it all even though the most recent statistics don't look so Golden State favorable; I do too.
I expected the Warriors to win Game 1 (they struggled but they pulled it out), Game 2 (they did not win), Game 3 (they did not win) and I expect them to win Game 4. If they lose Game 4, I expect the Warriors to pull off the greatest comeback in NBA history. I just don't believe the Cavs can keep the Warriors playing all wrong for 2 more games, the Warriors are just too good, too deep, too varied to be held in check by anyone for too long.
Why do I have such faith in the Warriors? Haven't the first 3 games, where the ragtag Cavs dominated the possession (like a classic Real Madrid squad) and dictated the tone and tempo (like Peyton Manning in his prime), shown that the Warriors just can't beat the Cavs? Nah, I don't think so. I think what we've witnessed is the will to live, that last drop of life force that demands to continue in the face of impending doom; the Cavs hit that clinging-to-life phase a coupla games ago, the Warriors aren't quite there yet. But when the Warriors get to that fingernail edge of existence, they'll play with a Dellavedov-ish desperation that will floor what the Cavs can bear.
The Warriors are 2-3 in their last 5 games. They lost 3 out of 5 only once before this season: Dec 16 (lost at Grizzlies), Dec 18 (beat Thunder at home), Dec 22 (beat Kings at home), Dec 23 (lost at Lakers), Dec 25 (lost at Clippers); this also encompasses their only 3-game road losing streak of the season. They followed that by winning their next 8 games, 13 of the next 14. Are the Cavs the better team or have we just seen a Xmas miracle?
I expected the Warriors to win Game 1 (they struggled but they pulled it out), Game 2 (they did not win), Game 3 (they did not win) and I expect them to win Game 4. If they lose Game 4, I expect the Warriors to pull off the greatest comeback in NBA history. I just don't believe the Cavs can keep the Warriors playing all wrong for 2 more games, the Warriors are just too good, too deep, too varied to be held in check by anyone for too long.
Why do I have such faith in the Warriors? Haven't the first 3 games, where the ragtag Cavs dominated the possession (like a classic Real Madrid squad) and dictated the tone and tempo (like Peyton Manning in his prime), shown that the Warriors just can't beat the Cavs? Nah, I don't think so. I think what we've witnessed is the will to live, that last drop of life force that demands to continue in the face of impending doom; the Cavs hit that clinging-to-life phase a coupla games ago, the Warriors aren't quite there yet. But when the Warriors get to that fingernail edge of existence, they'll play with a Dellavedov-ish desperation that will floor what the Cavs can bear.
The Warriors are 2-3 in their last 5 games. They lost 3 out of 5 only once before this season: Dec 16 (lost at Grizzlies), Dec 18 (beat Thunder at home), Dec 22 (beat Kings at home), Dec 23 (lost at Lakers), Dec 25 (lost at Clippers); this also encompasses their only 3-game road losing streak of the season. They followed that by winning their next 8 games, 13 of the next 14. Are the Cavs the better team or have we just seen a Xmas miracle?
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