Weird game, fun game. Whenever it felt like Houston was gonna wrap it up, Oregon State would come roaring back. Early on, Houston's D was stifling but on offense I couldn't figure out what their game is, I mean they chuck a lot of 3's, but that doesn't feel like who they are. They want to be more balanced, more controlled but they don't know how, so they shoot a lot of 3's and so far it has worked for them. Houston is an interesting team, feels like a lot more talent than they ever really showcase. If they get it together, they can win it all...or they could get slaughtered by Baylor. Good run for Oregon State but the scoring dried up for long stretches of time and they just couldn't overcome their own inefficiency.
(3) Arkansas 72-81 (1) Baylor
At the first TV timeout, Baylor was up 15-3. I said to myself right then that Baylor would win but by less than 12. Baylor was better but that weren't that much better and Arkansas had a decent shot at coming back. Baylor had a poorly timed drought in the 2nd half that kept the game close even though it felt like Baylor was dominating. But Arkansas' scoring just vanished in the last eight mins and that was that. (Also: Ark, dude, are you fouling in the last minute or not? Are you playing D or are you just running out the clock? Pick one! Real lack of leadership down the stretch, no game plan at work)
Creighton was nice, had a coupla nice scoring spurts. But Gonzaga is good at every position and disciplined and they're gonna outscore most every team they play. Southern Cal is a curveball.
(4) Florida State 58-76 (1) Michigan
I thought the refs did the Seminoles no favor early on, lot of 50/50 calls that just put FSU on the backfoot right off the bat. Michigan took advantage and throttled them throughout. (Meh, I don't usually blame the refs, but I thought here they inserted themselves a little over much that early in the game) Michigan is tough and they got a bunch of good scorers, they're a tough out, and I'd say they're clearly better than UCLA.
(11) UCLA 88-78 (ot) (2) Alabama
Fun game, back and forth, felt like Bama would finally get the upper hand after Juzang fouled out but it kinda flipped on them. Anyway, nice Bama buzzer beater to tie it up but UCLA got all point-happy in OT and salted it away. Good W for UCLA, overcame adversity against a top notch opponent. Michigan is rolling right now but the Bruins might give them a scare.
(7) Oregon 82-68 (6) Southern Cal
I didn't see any of this one. Seems like USC got hotter quicker and piled on as Oregon faltered. Southern Cal is probably the weirdest, most dangerous side Gonzaga has played all year, this is probably the most logical upset if Gonzaga is gonna stumble.
PS -- Oh yeah, I hate replay. I hate it. I have never liked it, never needed it and the more intrusive it becomes, the less I like it or need it. Shit, they still get the calls wrong, so why are they wasting so much time? I hate replay. Hate it in all sports. (*)
(*) Replay works in one sport: tennis. First, there's only one thing to look at: in or out, nothing much else to even considering. And second, they show the replay in the stadium, the players pause, and the audience all watches the replay together and sees the definitive result and then we move on. Every other sport it's annoying pain in the ass, in tennis its actually kinda fun and helpful. But in no other sport is replay worth as much time as it gets.
I stand by how great Loyola actually is because of this stat: 5-23 from 3. Jeez, if anyone even gets kinda hot at any point, this is an entirely different game--look how bad Loyola had to shoot to lose this game! Loyola's D was frustrating the Beavers at first but eventually Loyola's lack of offense more or less evened things out and Oregon State was able to get a firm grasp on the game. Check out my man Krutwig's offensive line: 12 FGA, 2 FTA, 4 offensive rebounds, 4 assists....zero turnovers, zero personal fouls; but this shows how the giant Silva was able to keep Krutwig in check: he should've taken a lot more shots, had a lot more assists and a lot more turnovers. You can see that Oregon State was successful at keeping Krutwig bottled up, whereas he was the center of the offense in the previous round. Oh well, Cameron Krutwig had a great tournament--better than will ever be noticed by humanity--but Sweet 16 is as far as it took him. Oregon State continues on a great run lately, I definitely give them a puncher's chance against Houston.
(5) Villanova 51-62 (1) Baylor
Baylor is just better than Villanova and that depth won out. Close game for 30 mins or so, Baylor rose up and stifled Villanova in the last 10 mins and as Villanova piled up turnovers, Baylor sealed the victory.
(15) Oral Roberts 70-72 (3) Arkansas
Fun match, back and forth at the end, Oral Roberts had the lead for a long stretch of this game, then Arkansas came back and stole it late. Really impressive run for Oral Roberts (Abmas and Obanor--yipes!) but Arkansas is a nice team and they did what needed to be done. Baylor has the depth, can Arkansas keep up?
(11) Syracuse 46-62 (2) Houston
The Orangemen did not get hot from the outside and basically flailed from beginning to end. Houston casually dominated the game, which still gives little suggestion of who they really are. Oh well, Houston keeps winning, can't front on that. But Oregon State has been beating good teams without a second thought for the last month or so.
Baylor is deep and talented at every position; if anyone can knock them off, you'd think a Hall of Fame coach (like, Jay Wright, for example) would the be the logical choice. But I don't think this 'Nova team has enough to outlast Baylor.
(15) Oral Roberts v (3) Arkansas
Oral Roberts has been hanging around but Arkansas can run and score and doesn't seem as likely to fall prey to the underdog as Florida or Ohio State. Love Abmas and Obanor, but I think it ends here for Oral Roberts.
(I'll take Baylor over Arkansas)
(12) Oregon St v (8) Loyola-Chicago
I know I got hyperbolic in the immediate aftermath of Loyola's drubbing of Illinois....so a week later...I still think Loyola is arguably the best team in this tourney and as nice as Oregon State has played, I don't think they have a chance against Loyola. I don't even think Loyola has to play their best game to win this game.
(11) Syracuse v (2) Houston
Normally a #2 seed would look up and see nothing but underdogs ahead and feel pretty good about themselve, but honestly I'm not sure I'd rank Houston in the top 3 out of this bracket. If Syracuse hits 3's, they will beat Houston. Houston isn't bad but they're not particularly special either, I think Syracuse can take them.
(I'll take Loyola-Chicago over Syracuse)
(5) Creighton v (1) Gonzaga
Gonzaga is the best team in the land and I haven't seen anything from Creighton that makes me think they can beat Gonzaga.
(6) Oregon v (7) Southern Cal
Oregon plays fast, if they're making shots, they'll roll. If Southern Cal can slow Oregon down, then they can hang and steal it. We'll see. This one is a tossup...I'll say...Trojans...?
(I'll take Gonzaga over....either team)
(4) Florida St v (1) Michigan
Michigan is getting themselves right again, nice win over LSU (a team not dissimilar to Florida St), and I gotta feel like they're gonna find a way to get past the Seminoles. That said, Florida St. is not gonna be an easy out, this is probably the best game of the Sweet 16 slate. I'll take the Wolverines.
(11) UCLA v (2) Alabama
Should be a high scoring, fast paced, score-fest. Okay, I'm ready. Alabama has been playing high tempo all season long, feels like UCLA is just now figuring themselves out. I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset but I'll take Alabama.
Oregon shot well, got a nice early lead, and played at a pace that Iowa couldn't keep up with. Iowa was a nice team but bland and probably overperformed, all in all. I don't mean to bust on Garza, he's really one of the greats, but he's kind of an empty calories numbers guy; he put up 36/9 and that made no difference whatsoever. Oregon plays hard and fast, if they knock down shots, they can keep winning.
(8) Oklahoma 71-87 (1) Gonzaga
I figured Gonzaga would mostly buffalo over the competition and Okla is just the latest victim. Sooners were okay, they weren't bad at anything and it felt like Reaves was capable of some big moments. But Gonzaga is good at pretty much every phase of the game. Gonzaga isn't unbeatable but they'd have to play pretty bad for most teams to catch them on any given night.
(8) LSU 78-86 (1) Michigan
Michigan started slow but they were just better than LSU. LSU feasted off sloppy Wolverine TO's but once UM stopped turning it over than the natural weight of offensive efficiency took over. Tigers still made it a fun game late but Michigan is looking pretty good right now.
(6) Southern Cal 85-51 (3) Kansas
Not much to say about this one: Southern Cal just kept making shots and Kansas never got any scoring going at all. This one was over quick, so quick it's hard to tell how good USC actually is. The Pac-12 is looking good, though, much stronger showing than I was anticipating.
Games I saw (pretty much) none of:
(14) Abilene Christian 47-67 (11) UCLA
Not as much of a blowout as I would've thought. This looked to me like a match of the most underrated #11 seed of all time and the most overrated #14 seed, seriously thought UCLA would win by 40.
(13) Ohio 58-72 (5) Creighton
(5) Colorado 53-71 (4) Florida St
(10) Maryland 77-96 (2) Alabama
Day #4 MVP: Hmmmm....no individual players really stood out, this was a day of good team efforts throttling weak team efforts.
OMG, great game. Loyola pretty much dominated from the jump, up at the 1st tv timeout, never trailed. Grutwig! I can't say enough about him, he was great, all time great, pleasure to watch. Seriously: the most masterful 2-way performance I've probably ever seen, like Olujawon in his prime, peak Mark Messier, old school Klaw-level Kawhi, the way Loyola swarmed reminded me of the Lawrence Taylor Football Giants--yes! I just compared Grutwig to Lawrence fuckin' Taylor! He roamed like a LB, kept the center of the floor perfectly cleared out leaving him free to drop on Cockburn from the weakside, everything they did worked. That was just on the defensive end; on the other end he was prime Chris Webber: locked down at the FT line, swinging the game to his will, they had so many brilliant weakside cuts. Dude, this guy was amazing--yes, Lawrence Taylor, Chris Webber, Mark Messier, and I'll throw in Arvdyas Sabonis just to finish it off. This guy was fucking amazing today and I think he's gonna be the MVP of this tourney.
This was a clinical display of the difference btw an NBA prospect and a good college player (what baseball might call "4A"): Grutwig (Loyola-C) controlled the game on both ends of the court as well as any single performance in fucking decades. But you know what: he's never gonna make it out of summer league, might play his way into the 2nd rd if he's lucky. Whereas Kofi Cockburn (Ill-C) is going top 10 and deservedly so. See, Krutwig is the experienced big man that's wrecking shop at both ends, that half Draymond Green/half Chris Paul mythical creature that all the Moreys dream of. But he ain't gonna do that in the NBA, that path is not available to him. At the next level, he'll be playing the 3 and guarding perimeter, lucky to get garbage time mins in his first contract. He can play professionally because he's that smart, if his body holds out, he can be a lifelong pro baller, but not in the NBA. Why? Because there's no way that guy guards Joel Embiid, then Julius Randle, then Durant, then chips on Tatum/Brown, no way; so he's not an NBA center; nor is he a wingman or point-forward, either. He doesn't have a position at the next level, he's too uniquely suited to the NCAA game. Cockburn, on the other hand, oh yeah, he'll do fine. Cockburn, wow, that kid is huge, like...this kid is huge, he can bang at the next level, he'll be fine. He's not a stiff, he moves well, but I didn't see any particular nose for the ball and he's got rudimentary drop step skills, so he can score a little, I guess. But body wise, he can play the defense, he can play the minutes, so I expect him to be a high draft pick and well positioned for a second contract. Krutwig is a great NCCA player, feels like he's about to have one of the great tourneys of all time.
I'll go ahead and say it right now: I don't think they beat Gonzaga, but they can beat anyone else, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Loyola against Gonzaga in the Final. These guys are good and Krutwig is a NCAA jedi and I hope he rocks the fuck outta this tourney. And the crew he's with all work together, they methodically find their shots, the team defense is amazing, (their transition defense was maybe the best I've ever seen, they were never out of position in the entire first half!), and they even know how to spread out their fouls (how'd they give up so many fouls and yet never have anyone in foul trouble?). I think Illinois was legitimately the second best team in this tourney and Loyola just tore them apart like a fat kid going through puddings on Xmas morn. It could be they just played the game of their lives and now they are spent; but I don't think so, I think they played an ordinary game against a good opponent, and they smoked said opponent. And I think they'll do it again. I wholeheartedly believe this team can beat anyone left in this tourney, except maybe Gonzaga. Yeah, would not be at all shocked to see Loyola in the Finial.
(9) Wisconsin 63-76 (1) Baylor
Kinda predictable game: Wisc played hard and hung around but Baylor had a more dynamic offense and slightly better defense and controlled throughout. Badgers needed buckets and they never came through. Baylor is a nice team, gonna be a tough out against anyone.
(11) Syracuse 75-72 (3) West Virginia
Fun game! Syracuse shot up a good lead early, then in the 2nd half West Virginia made a run, took the lead, but Syracuse got hot again down the stretch and finished it off. Some good back and forth so even though Syracuse mostly controlled the game, the Mountaineers made it a game to the last possession. Two even teams, Syracuse shot better and they're moving on (don't they do this every year? Come in as an underdog and make the Elite Eight?).
Games I saw (pretty much) none of:
(6) Texas Tech 66-68 (3) Arkansas
(10) Rutgers 60-63 (2) Houston
Houston outscored Rutgers 18-6 in the final 8 mins. Houston made their most of their chances late. Good W. Game effort from Rutgers but this Houston team is used to winning.
(15) Oral Roberts 81-78 (7) Florida
Florida was up 69-62 at the 8-min TO; Oral Roberts outscored them 19-9 after that. These Oral Roberts guys are good, Abmas and Obanor are monsters, if they can keep getting by playing their starters 40 mins a night, they can keep winning.
(13) North Texas 61-84 (5) Villanova
(12) Oregon St 80-70 (4) Oklahoma St
Day #3 Conference breakdown: Big 10 (0-3), Big 12 (1-3), SEC (1-1), ACC (1-0), Pac-12 (1-0)
Day #3 MVP Cameron Krutwig (Loyola-Chicago), Krutwig was the shit. Abmas and Obanor (Oral Roberts) again, those two are badasses.
G-town has a lot of nice looking athletes, they pass the bus test, but none of these guys can ball and there's little cohesion to them on either end. The buzz is that they're moving in the right direction, I'll have to take their word for it. As for Colorado, their PG controls the action, which carries forward into the next round, but G-town gave them so many wide open 3's that its hard to tell how well Colorado will adapt to their next opponent. Colorado was fine but really G-town just didn't offer much opposition.
(16) Texas Southern 66-82 (1) Michigan
In a normal year a veteran underdog like Texas Southern might've made some noise, but here they matched up with another veteran squad that came ready to play. I was impressed that the Wolverines went full court press from the beginning: Michigan is stumbling into the tourney after a really good regular season, they need to take every possession seriously. Tough defense leads to valuable offense and they scored well inside and out throughout the game. Felt bad for Texas Southern, they really balled out in the 2nd half, good showing but Michigan was not a good draw for them. Michigan suddenly looks dangerous again (after Ohio State and Purdue falter).
(10) Maryland 63-54 (7) Connecticut
Frankly I thought UConn was the better team, the more complete team, but they didn't knock down shots and Maryland did. The Terps built a nice lead out of halftime and held it up. Maryland was okay, if they shoot like this again, they can hang with anyone. I'd give the Terps a puncher's chance against Bama.
(13) Ohio 62-58 (4) Virginia
I picked this up after the last TV timeout: 3:40 mins to go, OU up 49-44. From then on, OU just straight housed 'em. UVA was getting buckets even, didn't matter, OU was getting shots or FTs, controlling the attack, eating up clock. They were fucking brilliant down the stretch, I was impressed by Ohio PG Preston (currently a high 2nd rd draft prospect, expect him to jump into the teens), he held it down in a very Jason Kidd-like way that was a joy to watch. UVA's natural dominance is also their weakness: they play for a low scoring game but against a slow down opponent their chances decrease and they've got nowhere to go. That said, they're always good, so I expect they'll be a #1 seed next year. As for OU: aw, hell yeah, they can beat Creighton.
(11) UCLA 73-62 (6) BYU
Johnny Juzang! Dang, that kid was everywhere, making plays, knocking down jumpers, frisky on defense, man of the match. BYU marked Juzang out of the game for a while and went on a little roll but UCLA was the better squad throughout. BYU wasn't bad, they played physical and disciplined, if they'd had a stretch of raining 3's, they might've snuck a W. With a big time scorer like Juzang, UCLA can keep winning (not sure Alabama beats this team).
Games I saw (pretty much) none of:
(10) VCU - (7) Oregon (VCU DQ'd for Covid)
(13) UNC Greensboro 54-64 (4) Florida St
UNCG kept the game close throughout but FSU's depth eventually led to reliable buckets down low. Are the Seminoles good enough to keep winning? Maybe, but this is one of those games where the deeper team just needed time to eventually win out, not sure that's gonna work in the next round. But Colorado (dangerous wings) v Florida State (dangerous down low) should be a fun match.
(14) Eastern Washington 84-93 (3) Kansas
Eastern Washington had a big crazy mountain man kid down low that was getting buckets when he wanted. Kansas just has too much depth, outlasted them but EW gave 'em a good game.
(9) St. Bonaventure 61-76 (8) LSU
(12) UC Santa Barbara 62-63 (5) Creighton
UCSB missed a tough one in the lane at the buzzer. Tough loss, this was a very even match, neither team was ever in control.
(15) Iona 55-68 (2) Alabama
(11) Drake 56-72 (6) Southern Cal
(15) Grand Canyon 74-86 (2) Iowa
(9) Missouri 68-72 (8) Oklahoma
(16) Norfolk St 55-98 (1) Gonzaga
(14) Abilene Christian 53-52 (3) Texas
Great box score. Abilene had 20 offensive rebounds (only 19 defensive rebounds--not sure I've ever seen more off than def rebounds before); add in that Texas had 22 TO's and it leads to Abilene outshooting Texas 67-40 FGA. (Holy crap!) That said, Abilene shot 17-49 on 2pt FG's. (Holy crap!) My point is: Abilene Christian pulled out the good W, but they didn't even play particularly well. Texas really reached deep inside themselves to lose this game. Texas hit a long cold stretch late, took the lead right at the end but lost it on late FT's. Good W for Abilene Christian (but, uh....hmmmm...I think UCLA is gonna slice and dice this squad). (And...oh yeah...I had Texas in the Final Four...bracket shattered).
Day #2: Pac-12 (4-0), ACC (1-1), SEC (2-1), Big 10 (3-0), Big 12 (2-1)
Day #2 MVP: Johnny Juzang (UCLA) all over the place and getting it done; Luke Garza (Iowa) put up tasty numbers all across the box score; Jason Preston (Ohio) looks like the guy to keep an eye on for the rest of the tourney.
Hey, if you watched the game, this was not a surprising result, Oral Roberts really was the better team throughout. Max Abmas (29 pts) was a fuckin' badass (like a little Lou Williams out there) and Obanor filled it up and hit big shots, while the rest of the crew made plays (would've been a blowout if they'd made more jumpers). For the Buckeyes, I was impressed with Liddle and Walker, but for some reason all the offense ran through Washington, who was not getting buckets down the stretch (7-21 FGs in 43 mins). If Oral Roberts has anything left in the tank then Florida is in trouble because these guys can score and control the game. (Yeah, I had the Buckeyes in my Final Four, so....yeah...bracket is shot)
(9) Wisconsin 85-62 (8) North Carolina
The Tarheels just had no offense at all, while the Badgers were their usual selves: a solid D and an offense that makes no mistakes. Wisconsin probably shot a little better than usual, not sure they were actually this much better than UNC.
(10) Va Tech 70-75 (OT) (7) Florida
I generally thought Va Tech was the better team. About 10 mins left, Fla finally got Castelton going down low and Tech didn't have an answer for him. That turned the momentum and Florida should've won in regulation, but Tech did well to get the game to OT. But in OT, Tech just ran out of gas. Florida is fine, but nothing superior--Oral Roberts is gonna give them a match.
(13) North Texas 78-69 (OT) (4) Purdue
I only caught the last few minutes of regulation and all of the OT. Purdue, as happens to the 'big boys' in this tourney, just thought they could coast on how they've played all year long, instead of adapting to a new challenge. North Texas plodded along down low and controlled the tempo late to hold off the Boilermakers (who were basically playing a home game).
(13) Liberty 60-69 (4) Oklahoma St
I kept waiting for OSU to take off but they never really did. Liberty hung around and kept the Cowboys nervous throughout. Concensus #1 pick Cade Cunningham did virtually nothing until the last 10 mins, then he finally appeared, but even then Liberty did not go quietly. Not sure what to make of their next match with Oregon St (can they blitz Ok St the way the blitzed Tennessee?).
Games I saw (pretty much) none of:
(16) Drexel 49-78 (1) Illinois
(16) Hartford 55-79 (1) Baylor
(15) Cleveland St 56-87 (2) Houston
(14) Colgate 68-85 (3) Arkansas
Score was much closer throughout the game, Arkansas must've run away with it late.
(14) Morehead St 67-84 (3) West Virginia
(11) Syracuse 78-62 (6) San Diego St
Never close. Syracuse piled on points all the way through.
(9) Georgia Tech 60-71 (8) Loyola-Chicago
(12) Winthrop 63-73 (5) Villanova
(11) Utah St 53-65 (6) Texas Tech
(12) Oregon St 70-56 (5) Tennessee
Oregon State got out to a big lead and held it throughout/
(10) Rutgers 60-56 (7) Clemson
Day #1: Big-12 (4-0) looking like the dominant conference, while the strongest regular season conference, the Big-10 (3-2) was only so-so impressive. ACC (0-4) got smoked, SEC (2-1) plodded along and the Pac-12 (1-0) hasn't gotten started yet.
That 1st half PK....meh. I see the contact but to me it just looks like two guys going after the ball with neither really getting an unfair advantage, so I would've let it go. Juve just couldn't get their offense going, Porto was off-side trapping them to perfection and kept them frustrated on the wings especially and when Ronaldo gets impatient, he gets fidgety. Juve back in the game: 48th minute, Ronaldo settles a ball in the box perfectly for Chiesa to hammer home, nice teamwork and a real mood lifter. Just a few minutes later Chiesa beat the keeper but couldn't corral the ball--OMG, that defender got so lucky to sweep it away without giving up a penalty! Okay, some sweet action here. Chiesa finishes on a beautiful header from a long ball pass (hmmm...are we sure he wasn't offside?) and we got ourselves a stew! Once it went it OT, I figured we were headed to PK's, but Porto scored and I missed that Porto was in the driver's seat, so when Juve scored right away, I thought we were back on the PK track. But, no, Porto advances on away goals. Juve really dominated this match but Porto made their two best chances stand up and they're moving on. Tough L for Juventus.
Dortmund 2-2 (5-4) Sevilla
Man, Sevilla really came out swinging, attacking hard early on. But they weren't able to connect on a quick goal, feels like they're gonna wear themselves out. Called it! For the first 20 minutes or so, Dortmund couldn't get the ball across midfield, but the first good run at the goal they had, they managed to finished (who's stopping Haaland right now?). The goal/no goal/missed PK/2nd chance PK maneuver early in the 2nd half was confusing and I'm not convinced it was the right call, but it felt like Dortmund earned a goal, so I guess it's legit. Sevilla played their asses off down the stretch, the frantic run to the end made Dotrmund look shaky, but they held on. Kind of a crazy game, lot of cards, chippy fouls, high octane action, replays, ref looked lost at times....fun times.
Liverpool 2-0 (4-0) Leipzig
Another fairly even match where Liverpool finished its chances and Leipzig just couldn't generate any offense. Leipzig is solid but just doesn't have the attack to move forward. Kinda hard to tell, really, how good Liverpool is: was Leipzig a sturdy pushback or an easy pushover? My eyes told me the two teams were not that far apart but the scoreboard shows me a different picture.
Paris St. Germaine 1-1 (5-2) Barcelona
Man, Barca had chances: missed PK, hit the post a coupla times, swung the ball in front of the goal numerous times, kinda lived in PSG's box for long stretches...and just couldn't connect. PSG got a quick PK (meh, I thought it was a weak call) and the lead seemed insurmountable....and it was. Shame to miss out on Messi going forward but it would've sucked being deprived of Mbappe, too, I suppose.
Real Madrid 3-1 (4-1) Atalanta
Madrid controlled the game early, up 1-0 at halftime, and the game was pretty much over when they finished a PK (iffy call) early in the 2nd half. Atalanta got a goal, but gave it right back. Real was the better team for 180 minutes.
Manchester City 2-0 (4-0) Gladbach
Gladbach just never had any attack at any point in these two matches. Even their high pressured defense was of little use, seemed like Man City was more than happy to kill time passing the ball around in their backfield. De Bruyne nailed a beauty early in the game and then they added another goal before halftime on a breakaway (beautiful set-up pass, just gorgeous) and it was all over quick.
Bayern Munich 2-1 (6-2) Lazio
Yeah, Bayern is just better than Lazio. Lazio could maintain possession but they couldn't push forward and Bayern's counter were just overwhelming.
Chelsea 2-0 (3-0) Atletico Madrid
I was surprised how un-sexy Atletico's attack was, just never seemed scary around the goal. Chelsea controlled the offense, that first goal finished the game, the late goal was just cold blooded.
Quarters:
Man City v Dortmund
I'm looking forward to it. Dortmund's offense can pile up goals quickly but it goes cold, too. If Man City can control the tempo, they can stymie Dortmund. This could go either way: indeed, this could be a tight, well-fought battle throughout or either team could house the other. This match offers perhaps the widest variance of outcomes.
Porto v Chelsea
I think Chelsea is the better team, not that Porto is undeserving but the way they scored in that first leg gives little indication of what they're actually like. If Porto can score early perhaps they can control the game, I think they'll have to. I gotta go with Chelsea, there's more firepower coming off the bench, too, they should score goals, whereas I think Porto has to bunker.
Bayern Munich v Paris St. Germaine
This will be fun! Bayern isn't unbeatable, they're just really solid at every phase of the game. PSG, though, is exactly the kind of spicy side that put a scare into them. I see both teams scoring goals, this is definitely the matchup to watch.
Real Madrid v Liverpool
Hard to tell how good either of these teams are: Atalanta gave Real Madrid little to worry about and Leipzig just never spooked Liverpool. I got a feeling one of these sides is ready to collapse, just not sure who's going to do it first. Uh...I'll take Liverpool.
Yeah, not the popular pick of the day but, man, his numbers are still stupidly better than pretty much everyone else. Yeah, he's the two-time MVP and his team is slipping, but perhaps being the underdog is exactly what this team needs. I understand no one else agrees with me and that's fine but he's actually having another great season and I thought I'd go ahead and zig here while everyone else be zagging.
The rest of my top 7 (in no particular order): Steph Curry (Warriors), Damian Lillard (Blazers), Lebron James (Lakers), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Julius Randle (Knicks), Joel Embiid (Sixers).
My criteria: I start by picking out the top 100 in Minutes Played and top 100 in Games Played (145 players). I then look at the top 20 in FGA, 3PA, 2PA, FTA, Total Rebounds, Assists, (Turnovers), Steals, Blocks, Points (77 players). Look, if you're not in the top 145 of usage and the top 20 of at least one of those stats, then how can you be MVP? Some guys that got completely left out: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Jamal Murray, Tobias Harris, Paul George, Gordon Hayward. Sure, they're great players but none of them are the MVP of the league right now IMHO. Also, I intentionally removed James Harden (Nets): his numbers are great with the Nets but he spent the early part of the season sand bagging the Rockets and that just ain't MVP material, man.
I couldn't choose because they're putting up similar numbers in similar roles. Also, as a night owl I end up watching more Kings than Hornets, so even though Ball is perhaps the more exciting player, I see more of Halliburton and I like what I see. This is good--not great--rookie class and these two are clear rotation guys right away.
I also like Immanuel Quickley (Knicks), Patrick Butler (Bulls), James Wiseman (Warriors), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Precious Achiuwa (Heat). And in the 2nd half of the season I can see Onkgwu (Hawks), Deni Avidija (Wizards), and Devin Vassell (Spurs) shining out, too. (Is Tyrese Maxey (Sixers) on the trade block? His minutes have fallen off and I'm not sure why) Fun fact: the top 20 rookies in Minutes Played are the same 20 (though not in the same order) in Points, as well. The top of the class is already producing on the court.
6th Man: Jordan Clarkson (Jazz)
Microwave off the bench, creates his own shots without being (too much of) a ball hog, pretty good rebounder at his position, and is giving valuable reliable minutes off the bench. (Has anyone noticed that he's 58 of 60 at the free throw line so far? Damn, man!)
LaMelo Ball (Hornets), Tyrese Halliburton (Kings) are both shooting well, keeping the offense going off the bench and feature impressive asst:to rates. (When was the last time a rook won 6th Man of the Year?) Monte Morris (Nuggets) is flying under the radar but playing well with the second unit, which will likely get bolstered at the all-star break.
Coach: Quin Snyder (Jazz)
The Jazz have been killing it all year long, though I can't help feeling they're peaking too early. But Snyder doesn't quit and neither does Donovan Mitchell, if that rotation can stay healthy I do believe they can be dangerous in the post-season.
Doc Rivers (Sixers) has unlocked Embiid and that is Coach of the Year stuff; Tom Thibodeau (Knicks) irritates the shit out of me and I can't help thinking they've gotten lucky with reclamation players (Randall, Peyton, Burks) and a sneaky great draft pick (Quickley), and my skepticism makes me feel like there's a better than average chance that Thibs blows that roster out by the end of the season, but so far...the Knicks are really good and a fun watch; Monty Williams (Suns) is the coach and having a hell of a season but Chris Paul is really running the team, right?
GM: Sean Marks (Nets)
Brought in Steve Nash to coach, James Harden to anchor and picked up Bruce Brown for a song without giving up Joe Harris. And (so far) those moves have worked brilliantly. Still very possible that one or the other blows up but even giving away Jarrett Allen doesn't seemed poised to be heartbreaker looking back.
Scott Perry (Knicks) seems to have chosen wisely with this year's recelamation projects. Mitch Kupchak (Hornets) drafted the best rookie, hung in on Gordon Hayward (who is looking great) and is making that Terry Rozier-Kemba Walker swap look like the right move (when it sure didn't at the time) and the Hornets are genuinely fun to watch for the first time in ages.
Ain't gonna lie: when Dortmund went up 2-0, I said to myself that Bayern would probably win 4-2. I don't think I meant it but I wasn't surprised by the result.
Bayern gave up two goals in the first ten minutes and still looked like they were in control all the way through. That last goal was just cold blooded, too.
I thought Liverpool controlled the ball better, had a much more dangerous attack; Leipzig had a few moments, especially late, but they were never scary around the goal and shanked the best opportunities badly. Both of the goals were bad defensive giveaways (an errant pass that left Salah wide open and a whiff on a high arcing long ball that left Sane wide open) but otherwise Leipzig's D was pretty good. This easily could've been a scoreless draw but Liverpool was the better team and a two goal W is probably the right outcome. Gotta figure Liverpool will make it stand up and move on to the quarterfinals.
Barcelona 1-4 Paris. St. Germaine
Wow. For 60 minutes I thought this was an even contest. But when Mbappe scored his second goal around the 65th minute, PSG just went off and destroyed Barca for the rest of the night. Barca scored first on a PK (looked like the right call, then it didn't, then it did again, it was the right call), but Mbappe got loose in the box and tied it up before halftime. Both sides attacked well and kept the action spicy pretty evenly until PSG took the lead. Soon after PSG got another goal on a header from a direct kick (kinda looked like when an extra linebacker rushes the passer and the running back never picks him up). Barca had some moments after that but PSG made better use of their possessions and put it on Barca. Mbappe's hat trick was off a beautiful pass during a breakaway, Barca's D got carved up. Barcelona's got a tough hill to climb but they're really good so that makes the next match all the more intriguing.
Porto 2-1 Juventus
Weirdest line I've seen in a while: Porto scored in the 1st minute of the game on one of the dumbest goals I've ever seen (lazy back pass, caught the keeper off guard, free goal for the other team), then scored in the 1st minute of the 2nd half (nice give-and-go up the right side that just sliced through the D). Otherwise, Juve was the better team but Porto never really had to be any good, so it's hard to tell what the next match will look like. Juve's goal was a thing of beauty: fast break up the left, swing the ball back across to find the open man on the other side, lovely slotted home finish; when you score goal like that on PlayStation, you know you're ready to move up a level. Can Juventus come back and take the 2nd leg? Absolutely, I think they will.
Sevilla 2-3 Dortmund
Sevilla scored a quick goal but Dortmund dominated the rest of the half and was up 3-1 at the half. Sevilla played hard, got a goal late (not insignificant). High scoring which makes the 2nd leg aall the more exciting.
Ateletico Madrid 0-1 Chelsea
I thought Chelsea had the more dangerous attack but really this was an evenly matched contest. Nice goal, I thought it was offside until the showed the other angle (like 30 minutes later!...man, I hate replay, I'd rather just complain about the refs blowing a call than watching a replay 50 times and then still getting it wrong). Very even match, the 2nd leg will definitely be worth catching.
Lazio 1-4 Bayern Munich
Uh....yeah...Bayern's just better than Lazio. Add in that Lazio just had a bad day and I think this result looks kinda right. And for good measure: I thought Lazio was offside on their goal and that the ref pitied them for most of the 2nd half. The next leg doesn't even seem necessary, but, hey, crazy things happen in soccer (I do not anticipate any crazy things happening here, though).
Atalanta 0-1 Real Madrid
Atalanta suffered a red card early (good call, it was pure hip check and no ball), though I'm guessing Atalanta's strategy was to bunker in anyway. For the first few minutes Atalanta attacked well but then played defense throughout. I thought it was gonna work and it almost did: it wasn't til the 85th minute that Mende was able to connect on a long shot off a corner (nice rip!). Real handled the ball well and it really never felt like Atalanta was gonna score, but Real didn't exactly dominate the attack even though their opponent was a man down. But I anticipate that Real will move on from here because Atalanta didn't display any offensive firepower (and they'll missing one of their defensive starters, no?).
Monchengladbach 0-2 Manchester City
Gladbach just didn't have any offense, didn't get anything going at all until the last few minutes--although how the ref failed to give them a PK in the final minutes was mystifying to me (clear foul, man, clear foul). Gladbach's best shot was a flailing back heel that almost snuck inside the post (I thought it went in at first) and then a rip off a bad defensive giveaway in the last few seconds of the match. Man City was fine, didn't feel like they played their best but Gladbach was nowhere near scoring, so a relatively easy W for them.
Predictions for the 2nd leg:
Liverpool (*) 1-1 Leipzig
Paris SG (*) 1-2 Barcelona
Juventus (*) 2-1 Porto (I'm seeing PK's in this one)
Dortmund (*) 2-2 Sevilla
Chelsea (*) 0-0 Atletico Madrid
Bayern Munich (*) 2-1 Lazio
Real Madrid (*) 2-0 Atalanta
Manchester City (*) 1-0 Gladbach
(Hmmmm....just dawned on me that the road team won 7 of the 8 games)
I had this weird thought the other day about stolen bases. It seems to me that stolen bases have been at least possible in every single baseball game ever played. I figured the only way there could've been a game without baserunners was if a team threw a perfect game and then hit nothing but home runs on offense. Going through all the perfect games in MLB history, I found no such game (*).
Mind you, I wasn't looking for stolen bases or even attempted stolen bases, merely the possibility of a stolen base, which, as you can see, is pretty much endemic in the game of baseball. Perhaps I'll return to why this curiosity intrigued me, perhaps I won't. I'm a flighty person, I've probably already burned out my interest on the topic. Just wanted to record it here in case the thought ever occurred to me again.
(*) The closest was Sandy Koufax's perfect game of September 9, 1965. The Cubs (obviously) had no baserunners in that game, while the Dodgers had only a double and a base on balls, both by Lou Johnson. And in addition to scoring the game's only run, Johnson also had a stolen base.
