2021-22 Pointless NBA Rebuild Idea

Yeah, couldn't help myself...here's the case for the rebuild no one saw coming: 

Nets get Karl-Anthony Towns, Jake Layman; Wolves get Pascal Siakam, Raptors 1st rd pick (#4); Raptors get Kyrie Irving

Nets get Chris Paul (sign & trade); Suns get James Harden

Nets get #7 pick, #14 pick, James Wiseman, Warriors 2023 1st rd pick, Warriors 2027 1st rd pick; Warriors get Kevin Durant

The Nets would shed their high profile talent and end up with: Chris Paul (fresh 3yr deal, I'd say something in the 3yr/$150m range(*)), Karl-Anthony Towns (3yr/$100m left on his contract), James Wiseman (still on rookie contract), #7 (I'd take Davion Mitchell (Baylor)), #14 (I'd aim for Josh Giddey (Australia)) and they'd still have Joe Harris (3yr), Deandre Jordan (2yr), Landry Shamet (expiring), Nicholas Claxton and Alize Johnson.  (Jake Layman gets bought out instantly) And I'd bring back Luwawu and Bruce Brown and--why the hell not?--Blake Griffin. And then they should go get JJ Reddick (run back the Clip show in NYC). They go from a veteran squad (full of grumpy show-offs) to a young squad (led by CP and KAT) over night but it would be much more stable and fun and they'd be building some real basketball culture instead of just being a bunch of media whores. And what's the point of indulging the Kyrie and Harden circus if they're not gonna show up in the playoffs? (**) 

Does this make the Nets more likely to win the 2021-22 championship? Well, I don't suppose it does--though if CP wins this year maybe you can talk yourself into it. But it does make them a more consistent and viable franchise going forward. Will they make any of these moves? Oh, good lord, of course not! They've got three huge stars, which is what we have told ourselves all teams need to win the Championship (of course, they....didn't win the....championship...but you know what I mean). For the Nets, these moves are designed to bolster the franchise for years to come rather than leaving it the hostage of self-absorbed media whores. But, then again, it is NYC--and the 2nd place team in NYC, at that!--all they know is media whores and making themselves available to that probably looks pretty good to the Nets. 

Would the Wolves be better off with Siakam and #4 instead of Towns? Well...no. But how about also sending D'angelo Russell (***) to the Pacers for Myles Turner and TJ Warren (Russell made an Eastern All-Star squad and he's a Big-10 guy from Louisville, is that enough cache for Indiana?). And how about shopping #4 to OKC for #6 and a future pick (of which OKC has a fistful); Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) probably isn't the right fit with Edwards, they may well be better off moving back in the draft and trying to find more assets. Look, this is Edwards' team now and if they can move D'angelo Russell for anything, then at least they'd be fun to watch (and they wouldn't take the blame for Towns' lack of success any more). 

Would the Raptors swap Siakam and #4 for Kyrie Irving? My guess is fuck yeah they would! In a heartbeat! He's not Kawhi but the Raptor supporting cast is still really good and we all still believe in Coach Nurse (right?), I think the Raptors go as far as Kyrie's health carries them. Also, this pushes Van Vleet back into super-sub guy again, which is probably a more realistic fit (he'd be odds on for 6th Man, no?). 

Would the Suns trade CP for Harden? I bet they wouldn't want to but CP has a player option this summer, which I assume he'll decline, and if he'd rather be shipped to NYC then re-up in Phoenix than getting James Harden (Arizona State product) is certainly not a bad deal. Do Harden and Booker fit together? Sure, why not? 

The Warriors would be reunited with Durant, which would be massively expensive in the short term and kinda kills their rebuilding going forward. But unlike Brooklyn, Golden State has had massive success with their veteran lineup and if it costs a gajillion dollars and murders their future prospects, well....what do I care? (I feel like I speak for all Warrior fans when I ask that question)

Yeah, no way any of these moves happen, but wouldn't it be a fascinating curveball if the Nets suddenly went into a garage sale mode? They could if they wanted to.

(*) If I'm Chris Paul (or any aging but still solid badass) I would insist on a declining contract. Pay me big up front and I'll take less on the back side. So CP has a player option for $44.2m this summer in Phoenix. I assume he will opt out with the intention of going for more years. He'll probably want something like $150m over 3 years. In order to stay in Phoenix, he can't decline an option and then sign with the same team for less money and he wouldn't with a new team either, so he'll have to make north of $44.2m next year. Rather than go to $45, $50, $55, say, to hit $150, I think a $55, $55, $40 would be better. If in three years CP is no longer any good, then just give him his paycheck and let him move on because your team's gonna suck anyway. But if he can still play and your team sucks, they he has a better chance of getting to a better team. The declining contract promotes player movement, which isn't for everybody, but for a badass like Chris Paul, the playoffs are where you get the attention, the opportunity and the big big money. CP needn't give his heart to the team, he should give his heart to go deep in the playoffs e'ry year, no matter what team it ends up being with. 

(**) Is anyone in NYC impressed that Kyrie, Harden and Durant lasted a whole extra round longer than Julius Randle and the fightin' Thibodeaus? I doubt it. I'm not and I'm not even from NYC.

(***) How on fuckin' earth is Russell making $30m this season? How...how....does that happen? That dude has never done anything in the NBA and he's mostly been injured....how does he get a $30m deal?

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Atlantic Division)

Sixers
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.

Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.

In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.

Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.


Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.

Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.

In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.

Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.


Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.

Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.

In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).

Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.


Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.

Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.

In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.

Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.


Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.

Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.

In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.

Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.

2019-20 Toronto Raptors

2018-19: 58-24 (NBA champs, fool!)
Draft picks: 59

Signed for next season ($131.4m): Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol (player option), Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Chris Boucher, Malcolm Miller
Wow, the only guys signed past next year are Norman Powell and OG Anunoby, neither of whom were terribly meaningful on the championship run. They've gone from a team locked down by their onerous salary cap to a team so unfettered they might blow away. At any rate, doesn't feel like any of these guys will be here long.
Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka will likely be going into their final seasons with the Raptors, which will leave a giant pile of money to spend next summer.
Powell is a nice rotation guy, as is Van Vleet.
They've got to re-sign Siakam (can they do that this summer? I'm not sure). And I suspect they'll re-sign Anunoby, too. I've heard they really like Boucher, but I'm not sure how committed to his future they are.


This summer's free agents: Kawhi Leonard (player option), Danny Green, Patrick McCaw, Jeremy Lin, Jodie Meeks
Well, getting Kawhi to stay is the first order of business; reacting to Kawhi leaving is likely the second order. He's a great player, just had a great run with the Raptors, you know they'll pay him whatever he wants to stay, so how much does he like money?
Green is a nice shooter, probably in line for a pretty good paycheck, but I don't think he'll be at the top of the Raptors to-do list this summer (with or without Kawhi).
I kinda like McCaw but there's something strange about that guy, not sure where he ends up.
Lin probably has a year or two left in him off the bench. He can still be useful to a playoff team that just needs reliable pros (Spurs or Heat, perhaps).
Jodie Meeks is one of my all time favorite Kentucky Wildcats and I was shocked to see him play as much as he did in the playoffs! But its hard to imagine he'll be playing anywhere next year.


Hmmm....the #59 pick....is the next Kawhi Leonard gonna be there? Could that be Jaylen Hoard (Wake Forest)? Actually I can see Jordan Bone (Tennessee) being a Raptors bench guy.


Next year's lineup:
PG Lowry, SG Powell, SF Kawhi (right?), PF Siakam, C Gasol with Van Vleet, Boucher, Anunoby, and Ibaka off the bench.

Man, that Raptors 2nd string rotation which has played so well for them over the last coupla years is pretty much gone now, huh? Coach Nurse inherited a well-run machine with some fancy new parts; seems like now its up to maximize what the machine can do for a year before a long period of rebuilding it. Not to say that he just picked up where Dwayne Casey left off but Nurse did have a good team ready to go on day 1. When a coach has so much success so quickly, it's hard to tell what kind of coach he actually is. The team has shed a lot of depth in the last year and depending on Kawhi's summer, may lose a lot lot more before opening day. I still feel like the Raptors will be really good in the East with or without Kawhi but with so many expiring contracts, the cycle will be ending and everyone will know it. So whatever happens next year for the Raptors will probably be pretty weird.

2018-19 NBA Finals (Game Six)

So far...
Bucks over Pistons (4)/Warriors over Clippers (6)
Raptors over Magic (5)/Nuggets over Spurs (7)
Sixers over Nets (5)/Blazers over Thunder (5)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Rockets over Jazz (5)

Bucks over Celtics (5)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Raptors over Sixers (7)/Blazers over Nuggets (7)

Raptors over Bucks (6)/Warriors over Blazers (4)

Then...

Warriors 109-118 Raptors
The Warriors were okay, the Raptors were really good, got big offense from Siakam and Gasol to cover up that Kawhi was actually pretty mediocre for the first three quarters. Good win for the Raptors at home, as I predicted. Some people were so amazed by this result and were quickly selling their Warriors stock, suggesting the dynasty was already over. But why? Shit, man, the Warriors had a long lay off (after dusting off the Blazers) to ponder how to get by without Durant, while the Raptors were starting their first Finals appearance at home after finding themselves in a tough series over the Bucks, arguably the best team in the league. This result was not a shock to me.

Warriors 109-104 Raptors
Warriors bounce back, control the offense, played good defense, got good minutes out of Cousins (good not great, let's relax on his performance) and generally looked like the team that swept the Blazers. The Raptors were not bad, Kawhi was actually pretty good, but the supporting cast didn't shine out big like the game before, so the Warriors were able to build and keep the lead. Again, to me, this was not unexpected: I thought they'd be split after two games, I kinda figured the Raptors would strike first and then the Warriors would strike back, and go on a run...

Raptors 123-109 Warriors
...Expect that the run did not happen. (At least not yet) Klay came up gimpy after Game Two (worth recalling that Iguodala came up gimpy after Game One) and Kevon Looney was announced injured and out for the season. Curry was amazing (47/8/7) but without Klay, the Warriors didn't have enough scoring and were never in this game. The Raptors controlled the tempo from beginning to end, everyone played well, not a dominant performance but a consistent and convincing one.

Raptors 105-92 Warriors
Klay returned and was great, Looney also returned and was fine, but even still the Raptors controlled the ball throughout and the Warriors just could not generate enough offense to get into the game. In the 3rd quarter, Curry went cold, Kawhi got hot and that was pretty much it. The Raptors were crisp and confident throughout. All signs pointing to the Raptors finishing it in the next game.

Warriors 106-105 Raptors
Durant returned and was great...until early in the 2nd quarter when he got hurt again (re-injured his achilles or newly injured his achilles?) and did not return; he only played a few minutes but he was very effective and gave the squad a huge lift. The Warriors held control until late in the 4th quarter, when the Raptors had an offensive flurry and took a 6 point lead with three minutes to go. Suddenly the Raptors went cold, there were a bunch of weird plays from both sides (were you expecting a sloppy over-and-back in the last two minutes of a Finals game?), and the Warriors are still alive. They're depleted but they have announced that they can still win...though Durant and Looney are now officially gone, Cousins was already injured, and Klay and Iguodala have both suffered, as well.

So what happens now?

I say the Raptors win Game Six. A weird wrinkle I hadn't previously considered: both these teams are better on the road. The Warriors were outmanned and abysmal in Games Three and Four, the Raptors were sluggish and sloppy in Games Two and Five. The Raptors fanbase is loud, crazy and obsessed; the Warriors fanbase is grumpy and fickle. I think the Raptors will steel themselves, play their good spread-it-around offense, keep Draymond and Klay in check on the other end and pile on points as the fans file for the exits. I think there's something nerve-wracking about playing in front of your own fans, while being on the road can really bring a team together.

Kawhi is never awful and is pretty much always a great defender but his offense has been a bit spotty, I expect him to be better in Golden State. The infusion of Western conference players (Gasol, Green, Ibaka) has brought the Raptors plenty of confidence on the Warriors floor. I expect Siakam, Van Vleet and Lowry to be aggressive throughout and I would expect Anunoby (probably won't play if Durant isn't in there), Powell and McCaw to make the most of any time they see. I think the Raptors are capable of playing their best game.

Meanwhile, Draymond has been the MVP, Curry has been the other MVP (that one that will get the votes), Klay has been great when available, Iguodala is giving his all....but that's about it. Durant and Looney are both officially not gonna play again this season. Cousins has reminded me of Gronkowski out there: he's still big enough and smart enough to be effective at times, he can still make the right play here and there, but mostly he looks like he's lugging a pullout couch up a flight of stairs; I don't think the Warriors can rely in any way on him having a big game. Livingston has not been a negative but he hasn't been much of a positive either, I don't see how his contribution could raise the level of the team at this point. McKinnie has had nice moments but not enough to make up for the loss of Durant. Bogut is officially shot (*). Jerebko, Bell and Jones have not fared well at all. Curry and Klay and Draymond and Iguodala will have to be absolutely perfect on both ends of the floor and I just don't see how they do it.

The return of Kevin Durant was set up to be a painful gimmick from the beginning. I certainly hope this doesn't do damage to his career but we already know he'll be missing most of next season wherever he plays, so there's nothing good about this for him. He's an athlete, he wanted to play, the team wanted him to play, he tried to play and didn't work in his favor, that's a shame but the blame goes to everyone. It was enough, though, to get the Warriors over the hump in Game Five--even his limited production was better than what McKinnie was gonna do and they held the lead for most of that game. So where do the Warriors get that from in Game Six? The fans? I ain't seeing it. I think the Raptors play a great game and the Warriors look like they're running in sand. Raptors in 6.


(* Do you realize he won the DPOY in the Australian League....this year? He is the reigning DPOY and MVP of the Australian League...man, that don't reflect all that well on the Australian League, does it?)

Recent Sports Watching

NHL
I love hockey but the Stanley Cup Finals is pretty much all I get to see. I caught Games One, Four, Five, Six and Seven and I think I found the Blues to be the better team in general. The Bruins were wild and up for anything, the Blues were more controlled and tended to want to dominate possession. But the game is all about energy and when the Bruins bring the active, they score more goals.

Blues 2-4 Bruins
Blues looked better, Bruins played better. Bruins had the energy and pretty much controlled throughout but the Blues showed flashes of an offense that could hold possession and attack.

Blues 3-2 Bruins
Bruins 7-2 Blues

Bruins 2-4 Blues
Opposite of Game One: I thought the Bruins played more compact and reliable but the Blues played wild, brought the energy and locked down this W early on.

Blues 2-1 Bruins
This series will be remembered for Game Five where the Blues committed an obvious penalty and finished the play with the goal that finished off the win. Okay: I don't watch a lot of hockey and I sometimes miss which interactions are illegal and which are just par for the course, but even I could tell right away that that was a foul--no idea how the refs missed it. Just to hammer home the point: the dude who committed the foul got the puck passed back to him after the dude he fouled turned it over--and he wasn't ready for the pass because he was already arguing with the ref who didn't even make a call! That makes him the guiltiest-looking human being I have ever seen. That kid with the chocolate icing smeared on his face who has no idea what happened to the cake has been moved to 2nd place. The Blues dude gave up on the play to start arguing--that's guilty! That alone should be 2 minutes in the box! And even though the Bruins dominated the final ten minutes or so of that match, they could not overcome the Blues' lead.

Bruins 5-1 Blues
Game Six was set up for the Blues to finish it off, but they didn't show up, man. I thought the Blues were the better team but they played tight and got frustrated by their inability to score. This game was still close deep into the 3rd, Blues sorta checked out by the end, Bruins piled it on, Blues got chippy late but never challenged the scoreboard. Again, I generally thought the Blues were the better team but once the Bruins started scoring, they just piled it on. (I think Binnington (Blues goalie) has been great and should be MVP if the Blues win; but he does have two games (Three and Six--both home games!) where he got beaten like a Bond villain and that is awkward)

Blues 4-1 Bruins

Game Seven: Whoever brings the energy will win the game. Bruins came out crazy but the Blues were able to snake two goals (one right before halftime--I love/hate those!) and seem pretty well in control after the 1st period. But I thought both teams were frisky and in it to win it, so I still expected more goals, maybe even a tie game going into the 3rd. But the 2nd period was pretty even, both teams played better defense than offense, which kinda surprised me: I thought we'd see more playmaking, more guys trying to be the hero, rather than tightening up on D. But the 2nd period was pretty conservative as neither team ever got their offense set up. Still close enough where anything can happen. But a beautiful counter attack goal by the Blues with around 9 minutes left sucked the life of the Bruins. Their defenders start slacking out there, Blues got another goal and this game was over. The Bruins scored a late on to give the fans something to cheer about (nice top shelf knuckleball). 

Good win for the Blues! As I keep saying, I thought the Blues were the better team throughout and when they played their game, they were gonna win. Games One, Three and Six were the ones the Blues didn't show up for, those are the ones they lost. The Bruins had a wider range of play, at their best their offense was overpowering but at their worst they couldn't hold their zone against the Blues attack. I don't watch enough hockey to know how momentous this was, but it was the first Cup for the Blues and they were in dead last in the league on January 1, so they've come a long way in the last six months. 

USA Friendlys
USA 0-1 Jamaica
USA 0-3 Venezuela
Well, the bad news is USA looked straight fucking horrible in both of these games: no creativity, no attack, no teamwork, sloppy in the backline, and no individual standouts. The good news is...the afternoons were sunny and breezy. This isn't USA's A-team, rather these were a coupla last look-over games before the Gold Cup, so I don't anticipate this is a preview of that (thank god!). That said, I doubt Jamaica or Venezuela brought their top squads, either, so this is a reminder that everyone else's depth is still greater than ours. (*sigh* Shouldn't USA be better by now?) Int'l soccer comes and goes so its hard to know what the Gold Cup will bring, I try to enjoy each tourney as the discrete event that it is. So I expect USA will be in, say, the final four, but we could just as easily get bounced by Martinique or somebody. I won't make a prediction because I have no idea what will happen.


Champions League
Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
Ain't gonna lie: this was the dullest Champions League match of the whole season. I just happened to have seen that Liverpool won just as I was about to sit down and watch the replay (thank you Yahoo Baseball! (*)), which didn't surprise me, so I hoped at least for an exciting match. Not really. Liverpool got a PK on basically the first play of the game (dude, why was the defender waiving his arm like that? Wtf was that guy doing?), drilled it and that was pretty much it because Tottenham never could get any offense going. It stayed that way for 80 minutes or so, got a little more furious on the way out, but not much more because Liverpool was the better team throughout and sat on their one-goal lead to strangle this game. They stuck a late goal (nice finish) but that didn't do much to diminish the general lameness of this game.

That's too bad, I kinda loved this whole tournament. I watched as much this year as I've probably ever seen and I dug all of it. I was so into Ajax, really impressed by Barcelona, Juventus overachieved, Real Madrid underachieved, Bayern Munich got real old real fast and, holy shit, Man U was in the quarters (how on earth did that happen?). The big what-if is PSG, all they had to do was slip past a hapless Manchester and they might've done some damage. Liverpool was the best team of the whole tourney (they did beat Barca, too, so they earned the crown) and Tottenham just kept managing to survive all the way to the last game (if it was two games, I'd make it even odds for them to come back and take it).


French Open
I saw virtually none of this (I'm not an early morning sorta joe) except the very end of Thiem over Djokovic in the semifinals. The match was called the night before (for some reason), then suffered a long rain delay the next morning, then back and forth all the way. I expected Djokovic to take control but he never quite did, I expected Thiem to falter but he never quite did. Tennis is weird that way: the competition is so close at this level that the tiniest differences loom large. Either way, the winner was gonna get smoked by Nadal (hey, Thiem took a set off him, nice work).


(*) Angry old man rant: back in the day the sports ticker across the bottom of the screen during a ball game was the greatest invention since the flush toilet and I have actual memories of the ticker itself (1996 SEC Tourney B-ball final, I still don't believe UK lost that game). But now in a day and age when I get any score any time anywhere in the universe, I don't need the damn ticker. And putting in Bundesliga scores is supposed to make you look cool--but I watch my soccer on DVR, so now I have to start avoiding the damn ticker that I haven't needed in forever and just takes up space on the screen. Do you get it? The ticker actually interferes with my love of sports! Like the beeper and the VCR, it had its time and place and now it just takes up space.

2018-19 NBA Finals

The Raptors took advantage of yet another late collapse by the Bucks to earn their first trip to the NBA Finals. The Raptors were able to ride their experienced vets while the Bucks suddenly looked like a bunch of dudes that have never been this far before (*). The Bucks are a team built around Giannis and when he's got his game going, everyone else has a lot more room to maneuver, but what I didn't notice until the last coupla games: it isn't Giannis that gets it going, it's Middleton; Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else follows. And in those last three games Middleton checked out and the Bucks couldn't overcome his disappearance. So if they let Middleton go (I'm guessing they will, he's gonna want more than they're gonna wanna pay), what they need to look for is a pass-first ball-handler with an eye for what makes Giannis go (don't seem sexy, but how about Cory Joseph?). To that end, they must retain Brogdon first and foremost and groom him to replace Middleton's early-game confidence. And if they can keep Lopez on something like a bargain deal, I reckon he'll be back, too. But I'd be pretty surprised to see Middleton or Mirotic back in the fold next year (and if they can move on from Tony Snell, that would probably be a good idea). They don't have a lot of money to spend but they do have Giannis, Coach Bud and a suddenly hardened supporting cast. The Bucks announced themselves as a premiere regular season squad, I'd say they're still the favorite for #1 in the East.

I like the Raptors, I like their outside shooting, their rebounding, their defense, their fans are rabid, the coach seems like a gamer and the bench is still effective (Van Vleet!) even as the rotation tightens up. And if the Warriors are rolling in with a hobbled Kevin Durant and a probably unreliable Demarcus Cousins, they've got a real shot at pulling the upset. This is the weakest Warriors side since their first appearance back in the day. That said, the Warriors still have a lot of talent and know-how, can Kawhi be enough to rattle them? I think Lowry really needs to be a monster for the Raptors to win, if he plays flawless basketball that's gonna give the Warriors some serious problems. Gasol, Green and Ibaka need to be merely reliable, whatever they get out of Powell and Van Vleet is a bonus and I'm curious to see if they get anything out Patrick McCaw, but Lowry needs to be a scorer and a foul accumulator.

The Warriors have off-court turmoil (sorta) that threatens to interfere with their year's title run, even though we all know that Durant is gone and that they never needed Cousins to begin with (could be more of a liability than a help in this series). Seeing how they handle Durant's absence--and possible return--is really the fun part of this series. He clearly won't play in Game One, doesn't seem likely for Game Two either. How can he play Game Three? If it gets to Game Seven, that's different, that's all hands on deck time. But any time before that seems like either a desperate gamble by the team or an indefensible attention grab by Durant. And if Cousins piles up technicals or has an adverse outburst, how do they handle that? Cousins was always just a time-killing rental, never really a part of the team, what do they do if he costs them a game or throws off the feng shui? Draymond has been great this post-season, Curry has been Curry, Klay has been good (thought not great), and Iguodala has generally been very good. They've gotten good minutes out of Looney, McKinnie and Jerebko but Livingston has been unreliable and Bogut is just there for old time's sake. That main four is still pretty great, the rest of the cast knows what they're there to do and I don't think they need Durant or Cousins to win.

I like the Raptors to take Game One but it seems inconceivable that the Warriors come back home down 2-0, so I gotta take the Warriors in Game Two. Back home, I like the Warriors to get their groove back and be up 3-1 heading back to Toronto. I like the Raptors to take Game Five and the Warriors to finish the series off in Game Six. If that works out, then I suspect Curry wins MVP, unless Klay shoots the lights out and shuts down Lowry (though Draymond may well be the most deserving). Warriors in 6.


(*) Even though I thought the Raptors were the most likely team to come out of the East all year long, I went with the Bucks going into the Conference Finals. Looking back on it, it feels like I was actually overrating the Celtics and underrating the Sixers. The ease with which the Bucks demolished the Celtics seemed so much more impressive three weeks ago and the struggle the Raptors had with the Sixers seems much more impressive now. As weird as that Sixers roster is and as solid as the Celtics roster seemed, feels now like the Sixers are a lot closer to success than the Celtics (and possibly even the Bucks!). The Raptors need Kawhi back and the chances of that seem better with every W.

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

In the West, the Warriors have moved on. Not much to dissect: the Blazers just aren't as good as the Warriors and since Lillard never looked quite right (busted ribs?), the Blazers never had a chance in this series. They probably should've pulled out Game Three but they ran out of gas late and that was that; yeah, I get that Meyers Leonard balled out in the first half, but that was found money and they needed to not rely on him in the second half. Blazers had a hell of a year, a lot to be proud of. They'll be losing a raft of supporting cast this summer (Aminu, Kanter, Seth Curry, Hood and Layman) and they're already over the cap, so they'll need to be creative to put together the right roster next season (if they could package Evan Turner and/or Meyers Leonard into a coupla lower-priced bench players, they'd only need to stay healthy to have a chance in the post-season).

In the East, I am puzzled on the eve of Game Six. My pre-season pick to come out of the East was the Raptors and I reiterated that going into the post-season. But going into this final series I switched to the Bucks because they just seemed to have a better sense of themselves and, well, the Bucks were the best team in the league all season long. But they blinked and suddenly they do not look like themselves and that makes tonight's game extremely intriguing. 

Honestly it's that Games Three and Four were reversed from the likely reality that makes this all so weird. If I told you that after winning the first two in Milwaukee that the Bucks looked flat in Toronto and the Raptors bench came alive and put a good whooping on the Bucks, well, that wouldn't be such a shock. And if the next game was a rock fight that turned into a double overtime struggle that the home team Raptors pulled out to even the series, well, that wouldn't be such a shock either. But the fact that it happened the other way around doesn't make much sense. Game Three was the double OT slugfest (and rather shockingly dull game, incidentally) while Game Four was the Raptors onslaught, that...uh...makes you go, 'Wait, what's going on?' Did the Raptors just take hold of this series? Is this a home team wins every game series? 

I assumed the Bucks would turn it around back home in Game Five but they did not. Indeed, I was amazed at how close it was and that the Bucks still should've won it considering that Giannis never got his groove going, Middleton didn't shoot the ball (not that he didn't shoot well, but that he didn't shoot at all!), Bledsoe had moments but no consistency, Connaughton was kinda awful, Lopez wasn't much help, Hill had a coupla nice moments but nothing that sustained, I thought really only Brogdon looked like himself out there. Meanwhile, the Raptors controlled the flow by the end of the 1st quarter, they were getting the calls (I was blown away at Siakam and Gasol getting calls that Giannis was not getting), and their bench shined out (Van Vleet! Gotta say fatherhood looks good on him) in front of a stunned Milwaukee crowd. So wtf just happened? The Raptors did everything right, had all the luck and the Bucks did everything wrong...and the Bucks were still in it late. So are the Raptors the better team asserting dominance? Or are the Bucks the better team and just not getting lucky? 

The Bucks go into Game Six on their first 3-game losing streak of the season and the Raptors are one home win away from the Finals. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. If Giannis doesn't get the calls tonight, the Bucks are finished; but if he snaps back into his game, I think the Bucks can still win the next two games. Giannis looks shook and Kawhi, well that dude never looks shook. I gotta think the Raptors are gonna take it tonight simply because you would expect the home team's supporting cast to to be more effective, but it could all come down to the refs. Look forward to this game as much as any NBA game since opening night!

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

Blazers - Warriors
Damien Lillard is balling, CJ McCollum has had some of that Lillard shine rub off on him, Rodney Hood has had a resurgence, Enes Kanter is jitterbugging around the basket pretty good right now, Al-Farouk Aminu is a pretty good defender, Mo Harkless and Evan Turner have had moments, Seth Curry is a neat thing to have off the bench in this series, even Zach Collins showed up and gave good minutes in the last round (and did you realize Meyers Leonard had 30 FGA against the Nuggets? He took thirty shots?).  I like the way the Blazers play and when Lillard is commanding the attention, everyone else has room to have a good game, so this team really can hang with anyone.

Unfortunately, the Warriors are better than the Blazers even without Durant. Curry has been balling out again lately, Draymond is reborn (*), Klay was great on D against the Rockets (only so-so on offense), Iguodala looked as good as he's looked in a while and Kevon Looney looks like a legit part of the offense again; but Durant is gone (at least for a while), Cousins is gone (right?), Jerebko is nice but hasn't quite found his spot yet, Livingston has not looked good on either side in a while, Bogut is just for a few minutes at a time, McKinnie and Cook seem like nice guys. But Curry and Klay and Draymond are back in charge and that is, I think, a beautiful thing. All the Warriors need.

My gut was to go Warriors in 5 because I just can't make the case that the Blazers can win overall, so why not go ahead and finish them off quickly? But I'm not sure that follows because Lillard alone is dangerous. But...I feel like the Warriors will be up 3-1 after 4, so I gotta go Warriors in 5 (wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers won Game One). 


Raptors - Bucks
My pre-season pick was Raptors over Warriors, which was also my prediction going into the post-season, too, so it seems like that's what I'd go with here. Nope. The Bucks are better than the Raptors. I like the make-up of the Raptors...if they'd had more experience together. Gasol, especially, looks lost out there at times as do Ibaka and Green, throw in that Siakam is in a brand new place in his career and it seems like Lowry still hasn't quite calibrated all of his teammates to the game plan. They lived off a deep bench all season long but that's more or less gone now, so it all comes down to how quickly this core can come together. The fact that that's even something to worry about makes them no match for the Bucks.

Giannis is the undisputed center of the Bucks universe. When he's on, the rest of the supporting cast has room to make do their thing and contribute. If he's getting the calls, the Bucks are not gonna be beaten by the Raptors. If Giannis struggles to find his game, the Buck supporting cast is not enough to win, so the Raptors must stop Giannis. I don't see how they get that done. I don't see how the Raptors outperform Giannis, therefore I cannot make the case for the Raptors to win. I want these both of these matchups to closer but I just don't think they are. The Warriors and Bucks are better than their opponents. So, like the Warriors, I will take Bucks in 5.


(*) Draymond can get thrown out of any game at any given moment as reliably as anyone I've ever seen--even Rasheed Wallace had more sense of himself than this. As we see the refs increasingly get yelled at, dismissed or conferred with after every play, does Draymond shield a lot of other players to yap or does he close down the refs' desire to hear anything from anyone? Does he make a ref more or less reactionary? And how does that play out for everyone else on the court? I dunno, but I'll be watching that for as long as Draymond remains in these playoffs.

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.

The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.

Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).

The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.


And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!

I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.

I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.


(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.

2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.

Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7.  That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.


West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.

Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.

Game of the Week

(This game was from Dec 9...uhh, little late getting this up.  Did the work, just forgot write it up)

Nuggets at Raptors (-10)

The Nuggets (9-11. 11th in the West) have a great and unique home court advantage that gives them a reason to compete.  But in a tough Western Conference they look pretty mediocre.  They've got a lot of 'nice' players but lack that one guy that makes it all work.  Occasionally a rotation like that sneaks wins but usually it gets bested in the 4th quarter and this Nuggets team falls squarely in the latter group.  There's enough intriguing talents to go with the home court advantage to assume they'll be okay but probably not playoff-worthy (indeed, that combo probably makes them trade bait-worthy).  In the West good is not good enough so you gotta figure a nice East Coast road trip is exactly what the Nuggets need to get some easy W's, right?  Nope: @Hawks, @ Wizards, @Raptors in 4 days--doh!  Good luck with that.  Man, even the easy part of their schedule is letting them down this season.  Mediocre teams need all the extra luck they can get...and this ain't it.

The Raptors (15-5, 1st in the East) hit the ground running this year, just like I thought they would.  They've got good starting talent, a nice looking bench and they rounded into shape right at the end of the year, going down in the playoffs to the Paul Pierce-led Nets (words you won't read ever again, I bet).  I believe we haven't seen the best of the Raptors, even though DeRozan is out til the All-Star break apparently, they should have the depth to survive in the East.  I predicted they'd finish 1st in the East and I think I'll stick with that.

The Nuggets may look mediocre but West-mediocre is East-not bad. But I think the Raps (-10) will handle their business tonight on their home floor.

1st -- Raptors 35-30
2nd -- Raptors 27-22

Lot of minutes for Mozgov, especially considering he's expected to pick up the rebounding slack in the absence of Faried; Valanciunas over and over again got the better of Mozgov.  (Why isn't Faried working out in Denver this year?  Thought he was ready to have his blow-up year.  And where's Nurkic?)  Ty Lawson with 8 assists at half, he's balling.  Gallinari not getting a lot of minutes even though this is Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights; he doesn't looks like he's gonna score out there tonight but shouldn't he be getting minutes just to fill space?  Wilson Chandler (trade bait d'jour!) was hot early on but disappeared by halftime; I know he's everybody's favorite swing man to be out on the trade market but I don't see much in his game outside of occasional hot shooting that contributes much.

Vazquez gets the start with DeRozan out, noticed Lou Williams subbed for Lowry, then Lowry came back after a break for Vazquez; seems like a lot of early minutes for a guy used to coming off the bench.  Raptors slowed down toward the end of the first half, the Nuggets cut into the lead with a late spurt.  The Raptors were by far the better team in the first but only up 10 at half.

3rd -- Nuggets 29-20
4th -- Nuggets 21-20
OT -- Raptors 10-5

The Raptors give up way too many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, Nuggets finally get over their turnover problems and start knocking down some shots.  Patrick Patterson is one of the most under appreciated players in the league these days, off the bench he does a lot for this team, he can speed them up or slow them down, decent outside shooter, makes timely plays, good defender, etc.  James Johnson, too, is balling off the bench, he's got legit offensive moves, effortless with his back to the basket.  Lowry is the one that runs this team but Lou off the bench keeps it going; the combo of Lou Williams and Grievus Vazquez is what will keep the Raptors afloat while DeRozan convalesces.
The Nuggets made a game of it but the Raptors handled their business in OT like a veteran club should.  But kudos to the Nuggets for covering the spread.

Box Score Notes
Man, a ton of minutes for Nuggets starters: Mozgov and Lawson barely got off the floor--in at OT game?  On the 2nd night of a back-to-back?  3rd road game in 4 days?  Jeez, these guys are gonna be in shape (if they don't die).  And I thought the Nuggets problem was too many guys wanting too few minutes; not tonight.  Without Faried, McGee and Robinson (or Nurkic) that lineup is paper thin.  Mozgov went 7-14 from the floor, better than I noticed while watching; he hustles, big body, but he looked gassed by halftime.  Afflalo went 9-14 but had strangely little impact on the game, looks smooth when he's rolling but disappears for long stretches.  Lawson's a smart player, used the high screen to his advantage over and over.

Yowza!  All the 3-point shooting for the Raptors came from the bench: Patterson and Williams went 8-17, the starters went 1-16.  The fact that the Raptors are getting scoring and defense off the bench is what keeps them dangerous into the 4th quarter night after night.  13 assists for Lowry, 26/12 Valanciunas, Williams with 26 off the bench, Patterson chipping 19/8, good balance on this squad.