Portugal v Spain – Obviously Spain is the favorite and the best team but I can see Portugal giving them a good showing. Portugal and Spain are mirror images: solid but not great on defense, dominating ball control in the mid-field, strangely weak up front. Similar styles, similar game plans, but Spain has the superior talent and the amazing streak they’ve been on for 4 solid years now. I would not be surprised to see Portugal sneak past Spain here. I don’t think I’ll boldly predict it, no, I’ll go with the Spaniards but Portugal is capable of hanging with Spain for 90 minutes in a way that very few other squads in the world can. This game could go to PK’s.
Germany v Italy – I would be surprised to see Italy best Germany. Italy is good team but not a great one. They rely too much on sagging defense and quick strikes up front. Against Germany that is a gameplan designed to frustrate the Germans, keep the scoring chances rare and push the game into PK’s where anything can happen. That’s fine against England, might even work against Portugal or even Spain. But I don’t see the Germans being held out of the goal for 90 minutes—and certainly not 120! This game does not go to PK’s. I’ll take Germany to stick a coupla goals in by regulation.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Thunder 1-3 Heat
Strange to say, but this kinda shocks me. The disappearance of James Harden is the first and foremost factor at work, I think; Lebron is having one of the greatest Finals ever but I think if Harden were putting up any kind of production then the Thunder would have already won this series. History is loaded with one-man teams that couldn’t pull it off in the Championship. Lebron’s been great before but he’s never been this close to victory.
Just to make the devil’s advocate case: if Harden starts hitting his 3’s and Durant/Westbrook start getting the calls that they’re not getting now, then the Thunder could quickly return to 110 er’y night and run off 3 straight with a quickness. They took 4 straight from the Spurs (who were a better all-around team) and though Lebron is the best player out there, I still think the Thunder have what it takes to neutralize him and push the offense.
The reason I thought the Thunder would win was that potent offense. We learned in the Eastern Conference Finals that for the Heat to win, they have to be up comfortably in the 4th quarter. That is precisely what I thought would NOT happen against OKC, who scores and scores and scores. But w/out Harden, the Thunder offense is beatable and when Lebron is dominant, the Heat can roll with anybody (for 45 minutes or so).
We consider it a foregone conclusion that the Heat will win tonight but it is not at all impossible that a week from now those words look like ancient runes scribbled on a cave wall. We might be talking about Westbrook as MVP, Scotty Brooks as the greatest coach on the planet, James Harden and Serge Ibaka as the sexy free agents of the off-season. Could be. Could be that Lebron is still a goat, Coach Spo is no mo, Wade is angry and beyond reproach, Bosh breaks down crying, the Big 3 has to be disassembled. Could be. I doubt it but could be. The Thunder might play come out blazing, feeling empowered by house money.
Lebron has got it in him to rise and rise and rise again if need be. I think Chalmers is a for real contributor, Wade is still good for 8-10 free throws, Bosh is a stud every other night and even when he’s not hitting Battier is giving the Heat a lot of useful minutes. Lebron has more to work with then I noticed all year long. And he’ll need them for just one more game. I reckon Lebron would rather wrap this up pronto, so look for him to have one of his classic nights: 40 points, 8 boards, 8 assists, 3 blocked shots, 2 steals, something like 12-14 at the FT line. If Bosh shines out, then the Heat can definitely keep pace. I'll take the Heat to wrap it up tonight (but it wouldn't be a shocker if Durant/Westbrook went offfffff tonight).
Just to make the devil’s advocate case: if Harden starts hitting his 3’s and Durant/Westbrook start getting the calls that they’re not getting now, then the Thunder could quickly return to 110 er’y night and run off 3 straight with a quickness. They took 4 straight from the Spurs (who were a better all-around team) and though Lebron is the best player out there, I still think the Thunder have what it takes to neutralize him and push the offense.
The reason I thought the Thunder would win was that potent offense. We learned in the Eastern Conference Finals that for the Heat to win, they have to be up comfortably in the 4th quarter. That is precisely what I thought would NOT happen against OKC, who scores and scores and scores. But w/out Harden, the Thunder offense is beatable and when Lebron is dominant, the Heat can roll with anybody (for 45 minutes or so).
We consider it a foregone conclusion that the Heat will win tonight but it is not at all impossible that a week from now those words look like ancient runes scribbled on a cave wall. We might be talking about Westbrook as MVP, Scotty Brooks as the greatest coach on the planet, James Harden and Serge Ibaka as the sexy free agents of the off-season. Could be. Could be that Lebron is still a goat, Coach Spo is no mo, Wade is angry and beyond reproach, Bosh breaks down crying, the Big 3 has to be disassembled. Could be. I doubt it but could be. The Thunder might play come out blazing, feeling empowered by house money.
Lebron has got it in him to rise and rise and rise again if need be. I think Chalmers is a for real contributor, Wade is still good for 8-10 free throws, Bosh is a stud every other night and even when he’s not hitting Battier is giving the Heat a lot of useful minutes. Lebron has more to work with then I noticed all year long. And he’ll need them for just one more game. I reckon Lebron would rather wrap this up pronto, so look for him to have one of his classic nights: 40 points, 8 boards, 8 assists, 3 blocked shots, 2 steals, something like 12-14 at the FT line. If Bosh shines out, then the Heat can definitely keep pace. I'll take the Heat to wrap it up tonight (but it wouldn't be a shocker if Durant/Westbrook went offfffff tonight).
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Euro: The quarterfinals
Still on track for Germany-Spain final. Hard to call. I want to say Germany is a little better than Spain but I thought that in 2008 and again in 2010. Germany is playing well but have room to get better; Spain look a bit bored out there, effortless possession, indifferent attacking. Is this the year the Germans finally get back to the top? Sure, why not. I’ll go ahead and pick against Spain again. Germany 3-2 Spain in the final.
Germany v Greece – Ouch! Hate it when sport collides with international politics. I’ll take Germany (in both).
Portugal v Czech – Portugal is one of those older teams that seems like they can’t hang but they still totally got skills and can possess the balls for hours at a time. They could use more scoring threat up front (Ronaldo is a great player but he’s not cold blooded at the frame like that), but their mid is second only to Spain. Czech is scrappy, they won’t go quietly, but their forwards are struggling, they’ll need a change to best Portugal. Portugal is the better team, the veteran team, they’ll control the ball and make the most of their opportunities. I’ll take Portugal (but wouldn’t be surprised to see a Czech victory).
Spain v France – France is a team in-between: wily veterans and young up-and-comers is a stew that needs precise seasoning; I ain’t convinced that France has that. They’ve got decent big play ability, maybe they can break loose and score. But even still I expect Spain to pepper the goal for 90 straight minutes. And France doesn’t have much that’s gonna stop that. Spain is a pretty easy pick.
Italy v England – These teams look similar to me: solid veteran defense, flakey offensive capabilities. Even similar gameplans: saggy defense that wants to counterattack. I wanna say Italy has more talent throughout the midfield and those possessions should make the difference and more power up front (though I’m not sold on Balotelli and the team is not sold on DiNatale). England does have Rooney rested and ready (hopefully more ready than against Ukraine) and Steven Gerrard, perhaps the most underappreciated player in the tournament. I can see this one going to PK’s.
Euro: The teams that didn't move on.
Croatia – I loved Croatia! Totally rooted for them throughout. Liked them, liked the way they crossed the ball into the box (penetrated the crease routinely, had trouble finding the frame). A good team.
Denmark – Pushed Netherlands aside, stood up well to Germany, held Portugal as best they could. I was rooting for them, I wish they’d pulled out a better result.
Netherlands – They had talent up front, I fully expected them to score and they just never got in a rhythm together. They played like guys that just didn’t like each other.
Russia – ditto. Russia’s got good talent all over the field—that beatdown they put on Czech was not a fluke. But that egg they laid in front of Greece wasn’t either. Team of talented headcases (11 Marat Safins *shiver*).
Poland – They played hard, gave Russia the business. Scrappy but not a talent-laden squad.
Ukraine – Rooted for them, nice win in the opening game. But a lifeless side, they controlled the ball against England but never could convincingly challenge the goal.
Sweden – Not a classic Sweden side. Ibrahimovic up front is a beast but he seems selfish, poorly utilizes his teammates.
Ireland -- Clearly the worst squad out there. They were never in any of their 3 games, they were outmanned at every position.
Denmark – Pushed Netherlands aside, stood up well to Germany, held Portugal as best they could. I was rooting for them, I wish they’d pulled out a better result.
Netherlands – They had talent up front, I fully expected them to score and they just never got in a rhythm together. They played like guys that just didn’t like each other.
Russia – ditto. Russia’s got good talent all over the field—that beatdown they put on Czech was not a fluke. But that egg they laid in front of Greece wasn’t either. Team of talented headcases (11 Marat Safins *shiver*).
Poland – They played hard, gave Russia the business. Scrappy but not a talent-laden squad.
Ukraine – Rooted for them, nice win in the opening game. But a lifeless side, they controlled the ball against England but never could convincingly challenge the goal.
Sweden – Not a classic Sweden side. Ibrahimovic up front is a beast but he seems selfish, poorly utilizes his teammates.
Ireland -- Clearly the worst squad out there. They were never in any of their 3 games, they were outmanned at every position.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Where will Anthony Davis make his living?
Team - Chances of #1 pick - Chances at top-3 pick
Bobcats - 25% - 64.19%
Wizards - 19.9% - 55.74%
Cavaliers - 13.8% - 42.57%
Hornets - 13.7& - 42.33%
Kings - 7.6% - 25.5%
Nets - 7.5% - 25.19%
Warriors - 3.6% - 12.66%
Raptors - 3.5% - 12.32%
Pistons - 1.7% - 6.1%
Timberwolves - 1.1% - 3.97%
Trail Blazers - 0.8% - 2.9%
Bucks - 0.7% - 2.54%
Suns - 0.6% - 2.18%
Rockets - 0.5% - 1.81%
I have ties to Charlotte, having lived there for years, but I have very little faith in that team right now. Wow, they are bad from top to bottom and I don't see how they get better. Davis would be stifled there, anchoring a terrible team with no plan for the future. I sure hope they don't get him. Over the years the team that was the odds-on favorite has very rarely won the top pick--let's hope that trend continues. Similarly, the Wizards, while better than Charlotte, are not a team with much identity or vision. Wall and Davis would make a great combo but I don't see them winning many games together.
Personally, I think the best spot for him on this list would be the Timberwolves. Great passing PG (Rubio), great rebounding forward (Love), good frontline talent already there, I think that is the place where he gets to come in and contribute to something that's already building instead of having to play the 'savior'. As great as Davis is--and I think his offensive potential was barely touched at Kentucky--I don't think he's a savior. He's a complimentary player who needs some service in order to really shine. In Minnesota, he would have room to play his game without having unrealistic expectations heaped on him right away.
Another fine landing spot for Davis would be the Cavaliers. Again, great young PG, good talent upfront and a culture that has had some recent success, a team with some sense of how to get back to where they need to be. Davis would fit nicely there, hopefully finding his spots to mature into his NBA body. I think the Bucks, Pistons and Warriors would give him room to grow without expecting too much of him while the Rockets need only a big man to send them deep into the playoffs.
Any chance for a trade? It'd have to be a blockbuster. Pau Gasol, anyone?
Bobcats - 25% - 64.19%
Wizards - 19.9% - 55.74%
Cavaliers - 13.8% - 42.57%
Hornets - 13.7& - 42.33%
Kings - 7.6% - 25.5%
Nets - 7.5% - 25.19%
Warriors - 3.6% - 12.66%
Raptors - 3.5% - 12.32%
Pistons - 1.7% - 6.1%
Timberwolves - 1.1% - 3.97%
Trail Blazers - 0.8% - 2.9%
Bucks - 0.7% - 2.54%
Suns - 0.6% - 2.18%
Rockets - 0.5% - 1.81%
I have ties to Charlotte, having lived there for years, but I have very little faith in that team right now. Wow, they are bad from top to bottom and I don't see how they get better. Davis would be stifled there, anchoring a terrible team with no plan for the future. I sure hope they don't get him. Over the years the team that was the odds-on favorite has very rarely won the top pick--let's hope that trend continues. Similarly, the Wizards, while better than Charlotte, are not a team with much identity or vision. Wall and Davis would make a great combo but I don't see them winning many games together.
Personally, I think the best spot for him on this list would be the Timberwolves. Great passing PG (Rubio), great rebounding forward (Love), good frontline talent already there, I think that is the place where he gets to come in and contribute to something that's already building instead of having to play the 'savior'. As great as Davis is--and I think his offensive potential was barely touched at Kentucky--I don't think he's a savior. He's a complimentary player who needs some service in order to really shine. In Minnesota, he would have room to play his game without having unrealistic expectations heaped on him right away.
Another fine landing spot for Davis would be the Cavaliers. Again, great young PG, good talent upfront and a culture that has had some recent success, a team with some sense of how to get back to where they need to be. Davis would fit nicely there, hopefully finding his spots to mature into his NBA body. I think the Bucks, Pistons and Warriors would give him room to grow without expecting too much of him while the Rockets need only a big man to send them deep into the playoffs.
Any chance for a trade? It'd have to be a blockbuster. Pau Gasol, anyone?
Monday, May 14, 2012
Thunder-Lakers
The Lakers have hard to work soooo hard to get where they are right now. Kobe is still Kobe, as efficient a scoring machine as Jordan in his prime. But the rest of that squad is stale, baby. Pau Gasol is a player when he feels like showing up, Andrew Bynum is good when he's not being an idiot, Ron Artest (or Osama bin Jerkhead or whatever his name is) still plays solid D but doesn't have enough consistent offense to be of much use, and Ramon Sessions may be better than Derek Fisher (but then again, so am I!) but he's not as good as Westbrook and that bench is pretty un-memorable. So how does LA win? They don't. If Kobe goes hognutty, I'll give them a game in Staples. Otherwise, the Lake show is done for the year. Thunder in 5.
Spurs-Clippers
I watched that Grizzlies-Clippers game 7 and I still can't figure out how Memphis lost. Well, they didn't score any points, no one could hit the broad side of a Griffin that day but even still I thought the tenacious D would pull it out for them. What happened? The Grizz struck me as the better team in virtually every game of that series. How they came back from 3-1, won a close-out game on the Clippers floor (er, well, the Lakers floor), and then failed to show up for game 7 back home is a baffler. The Clips didn't even play well! A lot was made of how 'big' the Clipper bench but honestly that was because Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were both pretty horrible and, well, you have to give credit to somebody. So congrats to those dudes that no one can name. And, oh the way, you got ZERO shot against the Spurs. The Spurs are tanned, rested and ready. They've been balling all year long, Tony Parker is the most underrated player in the league and they've had a layover between games, which suits them to a T unlike a lot of teams that get rusty. Seriously, I'll take the Spurs in 4. Maybe Chris Paul comes up big in games 3 or 4, but unless that happens, I don't see how the Clips even come close to hanging. The Spurs have more scoring, more discipline and the expectation of success. And they no longer have to worry about their nemesis, the Memphis Grizzlies.
Man City Wins
Wow! I watched the first half of Man City before picking up my mom for a Mother's Day brunch (see? I'm a good kid!). Fortunately for me (maybe not so much for mom), we happened to be eating in a bistro that fancies itself Continental and they were watching Premiership highlights and I got to see the final moments of that crazy comeback against QPR. Wow! How they gave up two goals to QPR remains a mystery but the comeback cannot be denied. The fact that Man U won their game to give them a glimmer of hope to win it all just makes it all sweeter.
Heat-Pacers
Yeah, I missed one of these game already too. But the Pacers aren't gonna win in Miami and therein lies their downfall. They're a good solid squad, they're on the way up and given the Bulls' injury troubles and the Magic's Dwight Howard troubles, the Pacers have a great shot at being the team that competes with the Heat for the next coupla years. They build this thing just right and it begins to look like Isiah's Pistons fighting the Celtics until they finally cracked the code. So I think the Pacers are gonna lay it all out and give the Heat something to remember. I don't anticipate the Pacers will win more than one game but I do think every single game will be competitive...I just think Miami's better. Heat in 5.
(This just in: Chris Bosh may be out for the rest of the playoffs. I'll still take Miami to win the east but they're chances of beating Ok City or San Antonio takes a serious hit without Bosh)
(This just in: Chris Bosh may be out for the rest of the playoffs. I'll still take Miami to win the east but they're chances of beating Ok City or San Antonio takes a serious hit without Bosh)
Celtics-Sixers
Yeah, I already missed a game but that is a game that I gave the Sixers 50/50 shot at winning. I think of it like this: the Sixers are capable of being better than the Celtics from beginning to end of probably one game out of four; and I reckon the Celtics are capable of mailing it in, putting forth zero effort and taking a beating about one game out of four. But for the most part the Celtics are more efficient, more experienced and they know what they're doing whereas the Sixers are lucky to have gotten this far. I'll take the Celtics in 6.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
