NBA Game of the Week

Clippers (7-4) at Grizzlies (11-2)

While I thought the Clippers would hit the ground running this season, so far they've been a disappointment sitting in 8th place in the West coming into this game.  That said, it is early and they're only 3 games out of 1st for crying out loud.  But Chris Paul isn't getting any younger (and that Clipper bench isn't either), they need to do more than just stay afloat if they think they can really come out of the West.

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have cruised to the top spot due to a full complement of healthy players.  Normally they don't get to this level of play until springtime, when they rev into beast mode for the playoffs.  Can they sustain this level of success?

1st -- Grizzlies 26-21
2nd -- Grizzlies 27-19

While the Grizzlies are known for stiff defense, it seems like Chris Paul's inability to get anything going in the 1st half was his own reluctance; he's running around out there with little effect.  Griffin is not settling in, Jordan got hampered with some questionable foul calls early on, Reddick is better coming off the bench (don't ya think?).  Gasol does so much on both ends of the court, I'll say it again: he reminds me of Chris Webber, controlling the offense from the foul line, getting others involved setting up his own scoring.  Grizzlies have a good lead at halftime and I don't see the Clippers succeeding at any phase of their game but perhaps halftime will give them an opportunity to re-group.

3rd -- Grizzlies 35-32
4th -- 19-19

Clippers cut the Grizzlies lead to 8 near the end of the 3rd but then the Grizzlies rained a bunch of 3's and kicked the lead back into double digits (where it stayed for the rest of the game).  Griffin was my pre-season pick for MVP but Marc Gasol has made a big time believer out of me, he is unstoppable!  Mike Conley went 2-6 from the floor (2-5 from the line), had zero steals and 2 turnovers and still the Grizzlies dominated from beginning to end.  When Chris Paul is outnumbering your PG, you'd think you'd be in some trouble but not tonight.  The lack of scoring depth on the Clippers is gonna be a problem for them all year long.  Jamal Crawford is that change-of-pace PG that the Clippers have exploited well over the last coupla years but tonight he can't find a flow, not hitting from anywhere consistently, flailing badly out there.  The Grizzlies bench seems to know exactly what their rols is; I was surprised to see so little run for Vince and Calathes (and a DNP for Tayshaun) but they weren't needed as Beno, Pondexter, Koufas and Leuer showed up and gave good minutes.  As long as Gasol stays healthy the Grizzlies should finish top 4. maybe even #1.

Grizzlies 107-91 Clippers

A look at the box scores reinforces my obersvations on the team benches: Grizzlies bench scored 35 points on 13-31 shooting, pitched in 21 rebounds and 7 assists while the Clipper bench scored their 31 points on 10-29 shooting, while adding only 5 assists to 2 turnovers.  Blake Griffin was 5-17 from the floor, only 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers and a -18 rating tonight.  Ouch.  Chris Paul had so-so stats but only 5 assists in 34 minutes shows the Clippers just don't have much offense around the big stars.  I expect the Clippers to be in the top 8 in the West but top 4 is gonna be tough without some roster moves.

NBA ROY Update

52 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year.  Right now Julius Randle is still tied for 19th in MPG for rookies, so who are the 19 ahead of him?

Bogdanovich (30.5), Jabari (28.6), Nerlens (27.4), Wiggins (26.9), Payton (24.8), Papanickolau (23.4), McDaniels (23.1), Napier (20.6), LaVine (20.5), Smart (20.4), Rudez (19.9), Exum (18.7), Ingles (16.3), Stauskus (15.6), Anderson (15.4), Hood (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Harris (14.5), Black (14.0)

Bogdanovich is for real, he's a little older, shooting 47% from the floor, not exactly re-inventing basketball but he's holding his own there....and the Nets are a trainwreck.  I fully expect Bogdanovich to keep playing healthy minutes and being a worthy contributor.

Jabari is a heck of a player, confident out there, looks good on offense, struggles a bit still on D, but with Giannis and Sanders out there with him, his D can be masked.  His minutes will probably increase as the year wears on and he gets used to NBA grind.  All of these rookies (the Americans, anyway) will hit the rookie wall some time between January and March.  Parker is getting a lot of minutes, how will he respond to the wall?

Nerlens is gonna get as many minutes as he can stand.  He's gonna be a great shot blocker, not sure yet that he'll be great at anything else (and with the endless stream of undrafted rookie teammates, pretty sure Philly won't be great at anything this year).  I picked Nerlens to be a ROY co-winner because I thought he would be a bright spot in a horrible Philly season, could still happen but that season is looking even more horrible than I imagined and Nerlens might find himself swamped out there.

Wiggins will probably increase his minutes by the end of the year.  The Wolves are a team in flux and Wiggins is the rudder, all the upcoming roster moves (and there will be more) revolve around him.  Again, rookie wall, how does Wiggins respond?  I don't think Wiggins wins ROY but I do think he gets minutes and plays well, but not enough wins or highlights to get votes.

Payton played well while Oladipo was injured, now we'll see how he transitions to coming off the bench, which will probably be his normal role this year.  I picked Payton as a co-winner of the ROY and I think I'm sticking with him for now.  He's played well, his asst-turnover ratio is really good for this point in his burgeoning career, I think he'll have enough highlights, positive moments and the Magic are a fun team to watch.  I'm sticking with Payton as ROY.

Papanickolau is the big surprise to me, didn't see this guy coming.  But he's pretty good out there, handles himself well, not lighting it up but not overwhelmed either.  With the Rockets strange rotation, I reckon he keeps getting minutes and opportunities.

McDaniels hit the ground running, showing some high flying skills and a fearless attitude early in Philly.  But, like Nerlens, I think his team will be so desperately bad that I think he gets worn down by the end of the year.  Even if he maintains his minutes and performance, I just think all that losing will be really draining and he has very little chance of getting a lot of ROY votes.

Napier looks like he belongs on the Heat already, he is steady with the ball and that's exactly what a veteran squad wants to see. I think Napier keeps getting good minutes, I think he plays well and while I don't see him making a run at ROY, I think he'll be a respected player in this league for the foreseeable future.

LaVine is a surprise to me in how many minutes he's averaging considering how long it took him to get on the floor.  He's asst-turnover is pretty fantastic for his limited minutes and I reckon he'll keep getting run in that rotation.  Again, the Wolves have a lot of pieces to move and I don't think LaVine will be one of them, but you never know, he could be in a different jersey by year's end.

Smart has been hurt, so his numbers have frozen lately.  He hustles like a champ and definitely has an NBA body, not quite sure yet about his game but then again not sure about anything the Celtics are doing, still plenty of time for him to blossom.

Rudez should probably get even more minutes in the depleted Pacer rotation.  He's a little older, a veteran, should make the most of his playing time on a bad team.  Doesn't seem like a candidate for ROY because hard to imagine he'll contribute enough to make the Pacers viable, but he'll play and get respect.

Exum will probably be getting more minutes by the end of the year.  It feels to me like Trey Burke is the odd man out in Utah (or maybe Kanter) and that would mean more time for Exum.  He's playing well in limited time, I expect he'll get better.

Joe Ingles is a bit of a fly in the buttermilk for the Jazz: he's playing more minutes and giving more production than I think anyone ever expected he would, thus he is clogging the guard rotation even more than it already was for the Jazz.  I keep waiting for Ingles to drop off but so far so good for the veteran Aussie PG.

Stauskus has yet to impress me but he is still getting playing time.  While everyone is suddenly on the Kings bandwagon, I am not.  I think they're playing the best basketball they're gonna play all year and I wonder whether that means more time and opportunity for Stauskus or less. Not sure where he goes for the rest of the year.

Kyle Anderson will get minutes in the Spurs rotation because everyone gets minutes in the Spurs rotation.  And he'll be good in the Spurs rotation because everyone is good in the Spurs rotation.  Frankly he won't have enough opportunity to win ROY but he should keep getting minutes.

Rodney Hood, along with Exum and Ingles, is another rook fighting for time in that Jazz rotation. He's currently shooting 26% from 3 and I can't help be feel like Hood is another odd man out in Utah.

Aaron Gordon just got hurt for the Magic, out at least a few weeks.  Too bad, he was having fun out there and really just starting to get his feet wet.  Oh well, perhaps being in and out of the lineup will help him sneak past the rookie wall.

Joe Harris....I don't know who that is.  Plays for Cleveland?

Tarik Black is getting Dwight Howard's backup minutes in Houston.  Nice work if you can get it.

PJ Hairston (Hornets), Gary Harris (Nuggets), James Ennis (Heat) and the McDermott/Mirotic platoon look to keep getting minutes and opportunities too.

Still haven't seen Adrien Payne (Hawks) or Mitch McGary (Thunder). They fighting injury concerns or what?  I know that Jerami Grant (Sixers) is coming off an ankle injury but I full expect the Sixers to throw him in for yet another debut soon enough.

NBA Transactions

As a weekly blogging excursion I'd like to keep up with the league's transactions.  I understand that most weeks will be devoid of interesting moves but there will be a few weeks in there where I'll be glad I kept with this (I mean....right?).  Also, interesting to note that NBA.com and ESPN.com do not completely agree on what a 'transaction' is, the discrepancies could be informative.  I'll go back three weeks in this first post.

Monday, November 17 -- Pacers announce they'll be keeping G AJ Price for another ten days after receiving a second hardship exception from the league.  I did not realize that this kind of exception even applied to 10-day contracts (or multiple 10-day contracts).  Then again I've never noticed 10-day contracts this early in the season, I thought they were salary cap shenanigans that had little to do with the actual day-to-day moves on the court.  Price has played over 100 minutes this season so I guess the Pacers have plans to keep him in the mix.

Saturday, November 15 -- Sixers sign F Robert Covington.  Another undrafted player for the Sixer roster.  This could be the one, this could be the undrafted, untested, diamond in the rough the Sixers have been looking for.  We'll see.

Friday, November 14 -- Warriors sent G Justin Holiday and C Ognjen Kuzmic to Santa Cruz of the D-League.  I don't know Holiday but Kuzmic is 2012 draftee that has been biding his time on the bench.  The D-League should offer those guys some minutes to play.

Thursday, November 13 -- Jazz assigned G Toure Murry to Idaho of the D-League.  Murry played 50 games for the Knicks last year but the Jazz feature a lot of young guys that all need a lot of minutes to develop.  Unless the Jazz start moving out some of their young guards, it doesn't look like there will be much room for Murry this season.

Monday, November 10 -- Grizzlies recall F Jarnell Stokes and G Jordan Adams from the D-League.  Seems early in the season to shuffle guys in and out of the D but I guess the Grizzlies have a plan to keep these guys getting minutes.  They have both debuted with the Grizzlies but neither has gotten much time yet.  (Personally I was a big Jarnell Stokes fan in NCAA, I think that guy can be a rebounding force)

Monday, November 10 -- Sixers sign C Drew Gordon from the D-League (Delaware).  Another undrafted player for the Sixer roster.  This could be the one, this could be the undrafted, untested, diamond in the rough the Sixers have been looking for.  We'll see.  (Yeah, I just copy-and-pasted from the previous entry...I got a feeling it won't be the last time I use that this year)

Sunday, November 9 -- Grizzlies waive G Kailin Lucas.  Making roster space for the return of Adams and Stokes, presumably.

Friday, November 7 -- Thunder sign G Ish Smith.  When Smith was cut by the Rockets at the end of pre-season he struck me as probably the best unsigned G out there.  (Thought he was a good fit for the Sixers but with his years of experience, I guess he's just not the kind of guy they want right now)  Not surprised he got signed by the Thunder, given their injuries and depth issues, I expect Smith will see solid minutes throughout the season.

Thursday, November 6 -- Clippers name Gillian Zucker as president of business operations.  Zucker comes over from the world of auto racing, having managed a track in northern California for the previous coupla years.  I assume this won't be a terribly high profile job and I have no way to assess how good she'll be, but it does beg the question: how many women have upper management positions in the NBA?

Wednesday, November 5 -- The Sixers announced a whole host of folks filling internal positions, too many unfamiliar names with vague titles to recount here.  Strangely enough the one name I recognized was Sean Rooks (a player development coach), who was drafted by the Mavs in 1992.  Can't help but wonder if his draft status was a strike against him getting this job.

NBA Game of the Week

As a regular blogging possibility, I thought I'd take up a Game of the Week.  I'll set the scene for the match (probably a Saturday or Sunday game), offer notes and/or observations on the gameplay and final stats, give a wrap-up of what went down.  I'd like to see as many teams as possible, although there are/will be teams I don't particularly care to watch, I'll probably get in all 30 at least once.

Bucks (4-5) at Heat (5-4)
While most pundits had the Heat comfortably making the playoffs in the East, just how the Heat would remake themselves post-Lebron was what we'd been waiting to see.  After 9 games it feels like we've seen it: adding Deng and McRoberts to a core of crafty veterans (Chalmers, Andersen, Cole, Haslem), moving the focus of the offense over to Bosh, picking up good rookie minutes from Shabazz and Ennis to go with whatever they can get out of D Wade is how they they plan to restore the production that took its talents back to Lake Erie.  Bosh is playing like an MVP and the rest of the team is doing what it needs to do, probably all comes down to Wade's back and just how far Bosh can go.  It's a long season but they look to be in the hunt for a home playoff series.

The Bucks only won 15 games last year though the roster looked to have enough veteran grit to at least outplay the Sixers and pick up a few W's.  Oh well, they picked up Jabari Parker for their troubles.  Rookie Jabari to go with another year of Giannis and the youth movement is looking pretty good.  Add in Larry Sanders back from injury and that is a formidable front court, especially in the East.  That said, the Bucks could vastly improve this year and still never even sniff a playoff spot.  So far they're hanging, won 5 of their first 9 games, will they hang around .500 all year (which would surely get them into the playoffs)?  I doubt it but we'll see.  Giannis and Jabari are legit, the sooner they figure out how good they are, the sooner they get to getting good.  Can they test the savvy Heat on their homefloor?

I'll take the Heat to handle their business.

1st: Heat 23-19
2nd: Heat 23-19

Heat are without Wade and McRoberts tonight, testing their depth against the upstart Bucks.  Bosh is so impressive, takes over when he wants, can get anywhere on the floor, can score from all over and still be a serious shot blocker at the other end.  I'm impressed with Ennis and Shabazz, both really know how to handle themselves out there, play within themselves and the team concept.  With Wade taking games off (you know he will), the rooks should probably get plenty of playing time.  What's gonna happen to Mario Chalmers?  He's a solid veteran PG by now but it just doesn't feel like he fits the Heat somehow.  The Heat up by 8 at the half,

Bucks are fun to watch, man, just a bunch of dudes running around crazy out there!  Love to watch Giannis attack the rack, his sense of the game continues to mature, his body control is Durant-like.  Jabari looks really confident, good to see, reminds me of a happy smiley Paul Pierce.  There was a great Reddit piece last week about Brandon Knight: a guy broke down every possession and measured Knight's highs and lows.  Basically it was an equal amount of amazing highs and head-scratching lows.  I'm seeing it here tonight: one play he's Jamal Crawford getting shots and setting people up, next minute he looks like Tim Conway on basketball.  His upside is still strong but his downside can be scary.  On the other hand the Wolters-Mayo-Bayless back court was not inspiring confidence.

3rd: Bucks 26-13
4th: Bucks 27-25

Where'd the Heat go?  Bosh really flailed after halftime.  All of a sudden the Heat could not penetrate the Bucks D.  Gotta say: that Sanders-Jabari-Giannis-Bayless-Knight defensive unit is pretty good, a lotta long arms and quick feet out there.  Were the Heat missing Wade's scoring or McRoberts' nifty passing?  Missing both couldn't have been good.  The Bucks limited their turnovers and were able to grind out possessions better than the Heat could.  In the final minutes, Knight nailed three straight 3's (the last one with Bosh in his grill!), kept the Heat from clawing back into it.  Good win for the Bucks, these young kids hang on every moment of goodness.  Now they find themselves 6th in East, gives them something to hold on to.

Disappointing loss for the Heat.  Probably figured a Sunday night game at home against the upstart Bucks was in the bag.  But without the Wade and McRoberts, the lack of depth was exposed.  Now they find themselves tied for 6th with the Bucks, between the Hawks and the Nets.  I fully expect the Heat to win more games than they lose, I'm not quite ready to say that about the Bucks.  The Heat have the proper stars, supporting cast and coach, but they also have 'senior moments' and don't feature a great deal of depth.  The Bucks have exciting youth, which almost never wins in the NBA, but the guard play is going to be spotty all year and they've got a lot of changes to go through, basically a team of trade bait.

Bucks 81-74 Heat

Any insights in the stats?  For the Bucks, Kendall Marshall failed to get off the bench, John Henson only played 3 minutes, Jared Dudley only played 10, Ersan Ilyasova played 12.  Nagging injuries, coach's doghouse, matchup concerns or do these guys represent the first up on the trade block?  Personally I'd keep Henson, think his game is really underrated, but Marshall is too inconsistent, Dudley a bit past his prime and Ilyasova is superfluous if Middleton is gonna get the forward minutes...Do the Bucks want Brandon Knight back next year?....Giannis was only 3-7 from the FT line, hate to see a young player lock in bad habits.

For the Heat: 39 mins for Bosh, 37 for Deng, 35 for Chalmers, only 7 for Haslem (how much are they paying him?  How many years on that deal?)....Not sure that relying on big minutes from Williams or Cole is gonna work out for the Heat in the long run....Bosh really had trouble against that young front court, 2-17 from the floor, couldn't hit the 3 or consistently get to the FT line.  Deng was only 3-11 from the floor....Without Wade to take up some defensive pressure and McRoberts to whip the ball around, those old legs for Miami are gonna have trouble against tough young rosters like the Bucks.  The Heat will get better throughout the season, there's still time to tinker.

NBA Playoff Predictions

A little late on the post but I swear my playoff projections are from before opening night.  So far so good?

East
Raptors over Knicks in 5
Bulls over Heat in 7
Cavs over Hornets in 4
Wizards over Hawks in 7

Raptors over Wizards in 7
Bulls over Cavs in 7 (Bulls-Cavs in the 2nd round!)

Bulls over Raptors in 6

West
Rockets over Clippers in 6
Spurs over Thunder in 6 (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round!)
Suns over Mavs in 6
Warriors over Grizzlies in 7

Warriors over Rockets in 6
Spurs over Suns in 7

Spurs over Warriors in 7

Finals
Spurs over Bulls in 7, gonna be a great one!

These picks are two weeks old now but I still believe.

NBA: 6th Man of the Year

6th Man of the Year, to my mind, is an award for most impactful non-starter: not necessarily the first guy off the bench or even the most minutes off the bench but the best minutes off the bench, the player that can drive teams in limited appearances.

Active players that have previously won the 6th Man Award: Ben Gordon (2005), Mike Miller (2006), Leandro Barbosa (2007), Manu Ginobli (2008), Jason Terry (2009), Jamal Crawford (2010, 2014), James Harden (2012), JR Smith (2013).  

Harden (Rockets) has long since moved on from his 6th man duties.  Gordon (Magic), Miller (Cavs), Barbosa (Warriors) are deep on the bench of talent-rich squads.  Ginobli (Spurs) could get some votes but realistically the Spurs are a cohesive unit with no cog more important than any other.  Terry (Rockets), Smith (Knicks) are likely to get good 6th Man type minutes, could get hot, could some votes.  Crawford is probably a good bet to repeat as he'll be performing the exact same role on what I think will be an even better team.

Just to look for new possibilities, here are the active players that have received 1st place for 6th Man in the past: Hedo Turkoglu (Clippers), Andrei Kirilenko (Nets), Mo Williams (Wolves), Kyle Korver (Hawks), Nate Robinson (Nuggets), Anderson Varejao (Cavs), Paul Millsap (Hawks), Taddeus Young (Wolves), Lou Williams (Raptors), Taj Gibson (Bulls), Jarret Jack (Nets), Kevin Martin (Wolves), Ryan Anderson (Pelicans), Markieff Morris (Suns), Reggie Jackson (Thunder), Vince Carter (Grizzlies).

Turkoglu, Kirilenko, Jack, Martin, Williams, Robinson don't look to get 6th man type minutes.  Korver, Millsap, Young, Gibson, Morris are starters these days.  

Keep an eye on Varejao, Anderson, Jackson and Carter.  Varejao could be a steadying force for the struggling Cavs.  Anderson is a helluva player, could be a star coming off the bench for the Pelicans.  Jackson might get too many starting minutes to get his proper time off the bench.  Carter will be asked to do the same thing he's been doing for the Mavs, should flourish in Memphis, could well nab himself a tasty accolade near the end of his career.

Other notables that have received top ten votes in the past: Channing Frye (Magic), Jose Calderon (Knicks), Chris Andersen (Heat), David Lee (Warriors), Grievius Vasquez (Raptors), Dion Waiters (Cavs).  

Frye could be the veteran leader that pushes the Magic into the top 8 in the East.  Calderon should feast off the bench for the Knicks.  Andersen has a few more years left in him, could be indispensible to winning Bosh an MVP.  Lee is a forgotten man in Golden State, he could remake himself coming off the bench for a good squad.  Vasquez will get a lot of important minutes with the Raptors this year, could be great.  If Waiters gets with the plan, he could have a career year.  

Other notables that have never received votes before: Shaun Livingston (Warriors), Gerald Green, Isiah Thomas (Suns), Amare Stoudamire (Knicks).  

I think Livingston could really shine off the bench in Golden State.  Green and Thomas will be both get big minutes and plenty of focus for the Suns this year.  Stoudamire could end his time in New York as an overpaid punchline or he could embrace his bench minutes and look forward to the future with a brilliant year in limited time.  

Best bet is Jamal Crawford (especially since my narrative is a dominant Clippers season).  But I like the Warriors to go far, so keep an eye on Livingston or Lee.  

(One wacky suggestion: Watching the Orlando Magic it is clear that Tobias Harris can play and is ready to take a step forward.  While I think he can play just fine with Payton and the starters, I think Harris could be even more valuable coming off the bench, dominating the offense as a 2nd teamer.  Also, considering that he did not get his extension picked up, that seems to make him a trade candidate which could find him coming off the bench for a playoff team (Rockets?  Knicks?).  So while he doesn't look like a 6th Man type guy right now, by the all-star break I think Tobias Harris could be an off the bench badass)

NFL Power Rankings (Week 9)

NFC
D Eagles
D Cards
W Seahawks
D Packers
D Saints
W Lions

Niners
Cowboys
Panthers
NYG
Bears
Vikings
Redskins
Rams
Falcons

I like Sanchez to keep the Eagles winning.
The Cards have a solid D but I'm not sold on the offense yet.
The Seahawks have endured some tough time, still think they're up there.
The Packers are just getting their roll on.
The Saints don't even have to play well to get a home playoff game (time to return that thumping they suffered in Seattle back in the day?)
The Lions have a good D, should have enough offense to get to the playoffs.

AFC
D Broncos
D Pats
D Bengals
D Colts
W Ravens
W Dolphins

Chargers
Steelers
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Texans
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders

Broncos and Pats back on top.
I still like the Bengals, they've had some lame moments but I still think they're better than most.
The Colts have Andrew Luck, good enough to win that division.
The Ravens are up and down but when healthy I think they're still dangerous.
The Dolphins have grown enough to hold it together.

NBA: MVP

Who could get MVP consideration this year?  Half of the teams won't be good enough to produce an MVP, another half of the remaining won't either.  Still, I came up with 21 guys worth adding to the conversation.

Previous winners: KG, Duncan, Kobe, Dirk, Lebron, D Rose, KD
KG stop playing years ago, he just keeps getting dem checks; Duncan doesn't care about that stuff and his rotation has way too many cogs to have an MVP (and it'd be Parker anyway); Kobe will have the whole team to himself, he'll get some votes but the Lakers are too awful to have an MVP; Dirk isn't the MVP of the Mavs so much as the cherry on top, the adult that'll step up when need be but the team should be pretty good around him; Lebron will be sharing the touches and limelight with KLove and Kyrie, I think they take votes from each other, Lebron ends with his lowest MVP vote total of his career; D Rose is on a team that will be carried by its depth, not its star, and I think the Bulls will be good whether D Rose is MVP-level or not; KD has already missed games but I think he'll be stellar by the end of the year and should get some votes.

Some East contenders: Melo, Rondo, Bosh, Horford, Big Al, Wall
Melo should have a monster season, won't win enough games but he'll get some votes;  I think the Celtics will be awful, I think Rondo is stuck in Boston, doesn't get traded to a team where he can make an MVP type difference; Bosh will be huge and his team goes as far as he can take them, he'll get votes, might even win; Horford will come back strong and if the Hawks overachieve Horford probably gets the glory; ditto the Hornets, if they improve it'll be Big Al's team not Kemba's or Lance's; I think the Wiz will be a really good regular season team, should improve by a lot, Wall could get a lot of the credit for that.

Some West contenders: Harden, Gasol, Bledsoe, Curry, Davis, Cousins, Rubio
The Rockets go as far as hard Harden carries them, he could win an MVP; if the Grizz improve from last year, Gasol should get some votes (and he's all set to be next summer's prized free agent); Bledsoe will surprise people with his improvement, Suns make the playoffs he might could get some votes; Curry is poised to be better than ever but I think the Warriors improve based on the supporting cast more than Curry, I think he's awesome but not really an MVP; Davis, too, is great but I'm not sure he's ready to really take over a team yet, at least I don't think the Pelicans make the playoffs this year; Cousins is awesome, he's been awesome, he'll still be awesome but he'll also still be in Sacramento; keep an eye on Ricky Rubio: the Wolves are his team now and if he has them humming by the end of the year, he'll get some cred for that.

I think Blake Griffin wins MVP.  I think the Clippers win a ton of games this year, the media darlings, triumphant story, lots of highlights, impressive win totals, Lakers suck, the Clippers get much glory.  I think Jordan gets defensive player of the year votes, I think Chris Paul establishes himself as the lockdown OG in the league and Griffin gets the big cut of the glory.  Anthony Davis will get there but I think its Griffin's time now.

Harden, Bosh, KD, Melo, Lebron, Curry, Wall I think will all be in the talk by the end of the year (with some squawks for Tony Parker).

But note the collection of dudes whose teams will go as far as he can take them: Bosh (Heat), Harden (Rockets), Rubio (Wolves), Melo (Knicks), Gasol (Grizzlies), Cousins (Kings).  Harden will by far have the most touches of any Rocket this year; Bosh will carry huge portions of the load for the Heat;  the Wolves are Rubio's team now, whatever he does is what they'll get; Melo is still the #1 ball dominant offensive force in the league and the Knicks have not much else; Gasol is surrounded by good players but he is the one that makes them go (a la Chris Webber controlling everything from the foul line); Cousins is a beast but the sort of beast that needs constant service and ironically enough: an MVP season won't convince anyone to play with him.  (I guess you could throw in Kobe (Lakers), maybe even Rondo (Celtics) but I don't think I'll bother)

But a lot of other players don't fit that description because they've got (seemingly) the right talent around them: the Cavs big 3 or any particular player in the Bulls or Spurs rotations or John Wall, Steph Curry, Eric Bledsoe or any of the Suns, Dirk, the Raptors guys.  Those players have the talent around them to not really need to be an MVP.

Kooky twist: The Clippers will only go as far as Chris Paul can take them but I still think Griffin wins the MVP.  Didn't think I'd go through all that just to bet it all on an anomaly.

NBA: Coach of the Year

I want to start by figuring which coaches are on the hot seat.  A quick examination of all 30 coaches.

1st year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Flip Saunders (Wolves), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)

This crop is not likely to get fired but there are varying degrees of untouchability here.  Pistons, Cavs, Wolves, Warriors are absolutely set, I don't see any of these guys getting put out this year for just about any reason.  Knicks, Jazz have found their guys for now and I don't see those coaches getting overly shamed/blamed for on-court troubles.  Nets, Lakers have found their caretaker coaches for now but if a big name comes available, these teams could be wheeling and dealing by next summer.

Only Jason Kidd stands out as a wild card: Bucks have seemingly invested a lot in a coach that hasn't shown that a) he can play well with others or b) he can coach.  Kidd is such a loose cannon and this team is such a wild wreck of a squad than I can see Kidd getting run out of town on a whim...or he could be great and win Coach of the Year, I suppose that's possible too.

2nd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Brian Shaw (Nuggets), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers), Mike Malone (Kings)

I think these teams are satisfied with their coaches right now, with one possible exception: Mike Malone (Kings).  Honestly I had to look up who the Kings' coach was because I had no idea.  I still have no idea.  The Kings are gonna be awful this year, the coach will likely be judged on the development of the youth but that will be hard to measure because outside of Cousins, this team is a dumpster fire.  Does Malone survive?  Does Malone even want to survive?  I don't know.

Another one that could have hot-seat-ed-ness this year is Brian Shaw (Nuggets).  I think the Nuggets will be their usual mediocre selves this year, better than last year but not in the playoffs.  Shaw's fault?  Not at all, but they might think they can do better unless they see certain improvements.  I don't know what would make them think Shaw is doing a good job, so I don't know how they grade his viability as a future coach.

3rd year coaches: Jacques Vaughn (Magic), Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)

Vaughn is a popular choice for first fired and I think I concur.  The Magic have an interesting collection of talent and should be an exciting team to watch.  Probably not enough to make the playoffs but the kind of team that needs to see improvement if the coach will survive...or maybe it doesn't even matter.  The Magic will likely be looking to upgrade at the coaching position by next summer and they could be the popular spot for up-and-comers looking to make a splash (does Billy Donovan still fit that description?).

I think the Wizards will be good and Wittman will have a solid season, making his extension in the off-season look like a smart move (though no one thought so at the time).

The Blazers are set to decline in the West.  Does Stotts take the blame?  Can Stotts be the difference in keeping them for dipping?  Not sure the answer to either of those questions.  If they start badly he could be out of there in a hurry; since I don't see them making the playoffs, I think he could be out by next summer.

4th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)

Vogel got his extension last month, an acknowledgement that the horrific season the Pacers are about to endure is not Vogel's fault.  Good for him, I think its a good move for the Pacers to punt this season and come back with a healthy Paul George in 2015.

I think the Raptors will have a good year, Casey will get Coach of the Year consideration.

McHale is another one of those on everyone's short list for first coach fired and again I think I agree.  He's had enough time, enough big stars, enough role players, enough roster turnover to show that he knows what he's doing and indeed I think he's shown he doesn't.  Unless the Rockets go deep in the playoffs (possible), I think McHale is out by the start of next season--and sooner if things go horribly wrong during the regular season.

5th year coaches: Tom Thibodeau (Bulls), Monte Williams (Pelicans)

Thibs is untouchable.  And if he does get fired, he'll have another job by the end of the day.

Williams is another hot seat favorite but I do not agree: if Williams can get the Pelicans into the playoffs (I doubt it), then Williams gets an extension; if not, I think he does not shoulder the blame for the disastrous Eric Gordon signing and gets an extension anyway.  Far from being on the hot seat, I think he's cementing his place in New Orleans.

Veteran coaches: Scott Brooks (Thunder), Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)

Pop, Spo and Carlisle are safe for the foreseeable future. I think they'll all have good years, get Coach of the Year consideration.

Brooks, on the other hand, will be fighting for respect all year long.  I think the Thunder will be way down from the last coupla years and it'll lead to one of two scenarios: either Brooks gets blamed for everything and unceremoniously dumped or management doubles down on Brooks and he gets a big raise.  Honestly I go 50/50 on either scenario but I'm increasingly certain one of those will come to pass.

So who wins Coach of the Year? I'll take Doc Rivers.  I think Clippers dominate the regular season, highlights, victories, much love and praise.  I think Dwayne Casey comes in second.  Spoelstra, Wittman, Thibodeau get votes from the East; Carlisle, Popovich, Kerr and Hornacek get votes in the West.

And who gets fired?  I say Vaughn, McHale, Stotts and Malone all gone by the end of the year.  Brooks could go either way no matter what happens.

NBA: Rookie of the Year

The ROY pool seems to be about 50 guys:

23 rookies have already debuted (*): (2011 draft) Nikola Mirotic, Bojan Bogdanovich, (2012) Kostas Papanicklaou, (2013) Nerlens Noel and (2014) Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Nik Stauskas, Doug McDermott, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, KJ McDaniels, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Shabazz Napier, Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Tyler Ennis, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cleanthony Early, Zach Lavine, Cameron Bairstow.

I came up with 14 more I expect to see this year: Joel Embiid (maybe), Noah Vonleh, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Mitch McGary, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant, Nick Johnson.

Throw in 12 more off my radar, maybe a foreign draftee appears on American shores, maybe an undrafted free agent breaks through and gets some PT, and we'll round the number of ROY candidates to 50 guys.

I think a good measure of a rookie season is minutes per game (MPG): how much did the team rely on this rookie to contribute?  You'd like to maximize that contribution (points, assists, PER, defensive efficiency, eye test) but if the team still has faith in a guy despite a so-so statistical year (a la Ben McLemore (Kings) last year), I think that carries weight.  MPG as opposed to simple minutes because injuries and chemistry might limit playing time for stretches at a time.

I think the order for rookie MPG will be: Nerlens Noel, Jabari Parker, Elfrid Payton, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovich, Jusuf Nurkic, Dante Exum, McDermott/Mirotic.  I'll take Noel and Payton to split ROY.

While those other guys are toiling away trying to find themselves on teams in flux, Noel and Payton have the best chance to be themselves right away.  I think they'll both be pretty good players on crappy teams.  All they have to do is play basketball and get better.

Dark horse possibilities: Bogdanovich and Nurkic will get time, opportunity and low expectations in their lineups too.  Nurkic looks like the closest thing to Marvel comics in the flesh and Bogdanovich might be the bright spot on a dreary Nets team.

Exum is a wild card.  He's got a lot of players ahead of him but he'll get his minutes.  50/50 whether he can make the most of his chances (and ditto the other 7 guys in the Jazz rotation).

Mirotic and McDermott will compete for minutes, focus, opportunities, and votes for ROY though I think they both have the potential to be good at the same time.

Parker will get minutes, he'll get focus, low expectations and Greek Freak's 2nd year maturation, I think he'll be good and exciting but I think the Bucks still don't win so much so while he'll get votes and respect and perhaps lead in MPG, I don't think he ends up having the best year among the rookies.

Wiggins, Smart, Gordon, will get plenty of time and opportunity but each team is a work in progress and so are they. Their upside is high but they could easily get vanished in the shuffle of a lot of players looking for playing time.  I think they each have good years, promising years and potentially great years I suppose, but I don't think they'll be best among rookies.

Of the rest the two that intrigue me most are Cleanthony Early and Nick Johnson.  As a college basketball fan I thought Early was pretty special, the dude just knew what to do with the ball, I think that skill translates to the big leagues.  Johnson could fill the void of Jeremy Lin (a player I think the Rockets will miss more than they realize), a decent spunky PG off the bench that the crowd loves.

The rest are just questions: Will Hood blend in with the rest of the Jazz youth movement?  How will Stauskas work with McLemore?  We gonna see Embiid this year?  Will Napier get enough minutes to be relevant in Miami?  Along with Wiggins, where does Lavine fit in in Minnesota?  Tyler Ennis looks good but how much of him will we get to see this year?  How much run are Vonleah and Hairston gonna get in Charlotte?  With OKC's sudden shocking lack of depth, gotta figure McGary's gonna play, right?

Kostas Papanicklaou, KJ McDaniels, Jordan Clarkson, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Bairstow, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant all seem like regular rotation guys, some of them will get to play this year, not sure which ones yet.


(* 24 actually.  I removed Julius Randle from ROY talk after he broke his leg in his 1st game.  Damn shame, he had his rook year laid on a platter: plenty of opportunities, plenty of 4th quarter mop up time in front of the diehards at Staples, plenty of highlights, no pressure to be awesome, probably only a so-so year but one with promise, damn shame--he doesn't even get to come back next year for ROY like Nerlens, Blake Griffin, David Robinson!; fuckin' sucks really)