The big news since my last entry is that Jabari Parker (Bucks) has blown out his knee and is done for the year. I think I speak for all true basketball fans when I say: damn. That kid was good and he was contributing right away to a team that was on the rise. Terrible loss for the Bucks, they were seriously eye-balling a playoff spot in the East, that's gonna be tougher to pull off without Parker's minutes. No Joel Embiid, no Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon hasn't played in over a month, and now no more Jabari Parker. Sucks.
Also this is where Minutes Per Game becomes a tricky stat. I'd been using Julius Randle (14.0) as my benchmark. Perhaps I'll move on to pure Minutes Played to gauge which rookies are maintaining their impact.
The amount of rookies that have debuted this year is up to 63, adding Furkan Aldemir (Sixers) and Johnny O'Bryant (Bucks) getting some of Parker's minutes.
Top 22 in minutes played: Wiggins (Wolves), Payton (Magic), Parker (Bucks), Noel (Sixers), Bogdanovic (Nets), McDaniels (Sixers), LaVine (Wolves), Papanickolau (Rockets), Napier (Heat), Exum (Jazz), Mirotic (Bulls), Ingles (Jazz), Rudez (Pacers), Black (Rockets), Stauskas (Kings), Ennis (Heat), Hood (Jazz), Anderson (Spurs), Hairston (Hornets), Wear (Knicks), Harris (Cavs), Smart (Celtics). (#23 Doug McDermott (Bulls) is out with an injury, that seems a good place to stop)
I reckon (barring injury) Wiggins, Payton and Noel will finish top 3 in Minutes Played and should all be top 5 in MPG. (Parker's 29.5 MPG will surely finish in the top 5) ROY looks to be Wiggins' to lose now. Payton is exciting to watch but turns the ball over and hasn't shown a propensity to get W's and Noel is a good defender but will probably be a project offensively for a while. Wiggins, on the other hand, knows who he is and his rookie year will be Wiggins getting his reps and coming back stronger. With all the depth of this draft, its hard not to see Wiggins and Parker as the two most exciting players going forward. I'd like to see Wiggins getting more than 1.3 assists per game, his 1-2 asst to turnover rate is not good though the rest of his numbers and the eye test on his defense are promising.
LaVine is climbing fast in his Minutes and his MPG. The Wolves are loving their new rookie PG, how will he fit in when Rubio comes back? Does this make Rubio expendable? Does anyone want Rubio? (Now that the Mavs have Rondo, probably not)
Smart missed some time with injuries, I suspect he'll be in the top ten of Minutes and MPG by the end of the year. Without Rondo, there's nothing keeping Smart from getting plenty of minutes. And if/when Aaron Gordon starts playing again, he'll go back to getting good minutes in the Magic rotation.
I expect Mirotic to keep getting good minutes because he is pretty good at everything, the kind of all-round player the Bulls live on.
Otherwise, it seems like all these guys are on an established glide path for production.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Thoughts on a (former) rumor
The buzz is that Rajon Rondo (along with a large trade exception) is going to the Dallas Mavericks for Jameer Nelson, Brandon Wright, Jae Crowder, a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.
First thought: I don't like it for the Mavs. The Mavs currently have the highest rated offense in the league, how much better does Rondo make that offense? I say none He'll take the ball out of Monta Ellis's hands without giving any FT or outside shooting. Dallas is not a great defensive team, how much better does Rondo make them? I say none. I always thought (Kentucky fan here, I've watched his WHOLE career) Rondo was overrated on defense: he gets steals by a combination of over pursuing the backside and slacking on fronting the ball.
Wright is shooting at a phenomenal percentage and is the only big guy off the bench on the team and Nelson is exactly the veteran presence the Mavs needed. Some of the stats thrown out as Mavs PG needs are illusory: Mavs PG are last or near the bottom in the FG%, points per game and assists per game. So what? They get their scoring from the SG (Ellis) and their PF (Dirk) with everyone else just pitching in; Rondo won't help the % or the PPG anyway--and he'll get his assists to the consternation of Ellis. And his rebounding, which has always been great for a PG, won't replace Brandon Wright's production, so I see NO upside to this move for the Mavs. The Mavs offense is based on moving the ball around whereas Rondo is a slowdown ball hog.
What does this do for the Celtics? They save a little money, they throw a coupla more draft picks onto the pile and they have now freed themselves the headache of not resigning Rajon Rondo. With the addition of Wright, they can now try even harder to trade off Brandon Bass. The addition of Nelson gives them an affordable steadying force for Marcus Smart. I assume Jae Crowder will get waived.
Going forward, Dallas now has to find a big man to replace Wright (what's Emeka Okafor's phone number?) and presumably they'll max Rondo this summer. Considering they'll want to re-sign Tyson Chandler too, I think that's too much money for an aging (overrated) ball hogging PG.
The Mavs are the #1 offense in the league, why the need for the shake up? Is this truly an improvement? I say its not, I think the Mavs overpaid for a guy they don't really need and they're going to overpay even more next year. The Mavs are currently sitting at 7th in the West, I don't see them finishing any higher than 5th with or without Rondo. Not a good move, Mavs.
First thought: I don't like it for the Mavs. The Mavs currently have the highest rated offense in the league, how much better does Rondo make that offense? I say none He'll take the ball out of Monta Ellis's hands without giving any FT or outside shooting. Dallas is not a great defensive team, how much better does Rondo make them? I say none. I always thought (Kentucky fan here, I've watched his WHOLE career) Rondo was overrated on defense: he gets steals by a combination of over pursuing the backside and slacking on fronting the ball.
Wright is shooting at a phenomenal percentage and is the only big guy off the bench on the team and Nelson is exactly the veteran presence the Mavs needed. Some of the stats thrown out as Mavs PG needs are illusory: Mavs PG are last or near the bottom in the FG%, points per game and assists per game. So what? They get their scoring from the SG (Ellis) and their PF (Dirk) with everyone else just pitching in; Rondo won't help the % or the PPG anyway--and he'll get his assists to the consternation of Ellis. And his rebounding, which has always been great for a PG, won't replace Brandon Wright's production, so I see NO upside to this move for the Mavs. The Mavs offense is based on moving the ball around whereas Rondo is a slowdown ball hog.
What does this do for the Celtics? They save a little money, they throw a coupla more draft picks onto the pile and they have now freed themselves the headache of not resigning Rajon Rondo. With the addition of Wright, they can now try even harder to trade off Brandon Bass. The addition of Nelson gives them an affordable steadying force for Marcus Smart. I assume Jae Crowder will get waived.
Going forward, Dallas now has to find a big man to replace Wright (what's Emeka Okafor's phone number?) and presumably they'll max Rondo this summer. Considering they'll want to re-sign Tyson Chandler too, I think that's too much money for an aging (overrated) ball hogging PG.
The Mavs are the #1 offense in the league, why the need for the shake up? Is this truly an improvement? I say its not, I think the Mavs overpaid for a guy they don't really need and they're going to overpay even more next year. The Mavs are currently sitting at 7th in the West, I don't see them finishing any higher than 5th with or without Rondo. Not a good move, Mavs.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Game of the Week
(This game was from Dec 9...uhh, little late getting this up. Did the work, just forgot write it up)
Nuggets at Raptors (-10)
The Nuggets (9-11. 11th in the West) have a great and unique home court advantage that gives them a reason to compete. But in a tough Western Conference they look pretty mediocre. They've got a lot of 'nice' players but lack that one guy that makes it all work. Occasionally a rotation like that sneaks wins but usually it gets bested in the 4th quarter and this Nuggets team falls squarely in the latter group. There's enough intriguing talents to go with the home court advantage to assume they'll be okay but probably not playoff-worthy (indeed, that combo probably makes them trade bait-worthy). In the West good is not good enough so you gotta figure a nice East Coast road trip is exactly what the Nuggets need to get some easy W's, right? Nope: @Hawks, @ Wizards, @Raptors in 4 days--doh! Good luck with that. Man, even the easy part of their schedule is letting them down this season. Mediocre teams need all the extra luck they can get...and this ain't it.
The Raptors (15-5, 1st in the East) hit the ground running this year, just like I thought they would. They've got good starting talent, a nice looking bench and they rounded into shape right at the end of the year, going down in the playoffs to the Paul Pierce-led Nets (words you won't read ever again, I bet). I believe we haven't seen the best of the Raptors, even though DeRozan is out til the All-Star break apparently, they should have the depth to survive in the East. I predicted they'd finish 1st in the East and I think I'll stick with that.
The Nuggets may look mediocre but West-mediocre is East-not bad. But I think the Raps (-10) will handle their business tonight on their home floor.
1st -- Raptors 35-30
2nd -- Raptors 27-22
Lot of minutes for Mozgov, especially considering he's expected to pick up the rebounding slack in the absence of Faried; Valanciunas over and over again got the better of Mozgov. (Why isn't Faried working out in Denver this year? Thought he was ready to have his blow-up year. And where's Nurkic?) Ty Lawson with 8 assists at half, he's balling. Gallinari not getting a lot of minutes even though this is Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights; he doesn't looks like he's gonna score out there tonight but shouldn't he be getting minutes just to fill space? Wilson Chandler (trade bait d'jour!) was hot early on but disappeared by halftime; I know he's everybody's favorite swing man to be out on the trade market but I don't see much in his game outside of occasional hot shooting that contributes much.
Vazquez gets the start with DeRozan out, noticed Lou Williams subbed for Lowry, then Lowry came back after a break for Vazquez; seems like a lot of early minutes for a guy used to coming off the bench. Raptors slowed down toward the end of the first half, the Nuggets cut into the lead with a late spurt. The Raptors were by far the better team in the first but only up 10 at half.
3rd -- Nuggets 29-20
4th -- Nuggets 21-20
OT -- Raptors 10-5
The Raptors give up way too many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, Nuggets finally get over their turnover problems and start knocking down some shots. Patrick Patterson is one of the most under appreciated players in the league these days, off the bench he does a lot for this team, he can speed them up or slow them down, decent outside shooter, makes timely plays, good defender, etc. James Johnson, too, is balling off the bench, he's got legit offensive moves, effortless with his back to the basket. Lowry is the one that runs this team but Lou off the bench keeps it going; the combo of Lou Williams and Grievus Vazquez is what will keep the Raptors afloat while DeRozan convalesces.
The Nuggets made a game of it but the Raptors handled their business in OT like a veteran club should. But kudos to the Nuggets for covering the spread.
Box Score Notes
Man, a ton of minutes for Nuggets starters: Mozgov and Lawson barely got off the floor--in at OT game? On the 2nd night of a back-to-back? 3rd road game in 4 days? Jeez, these guys are gonna be in shape (if they don't die). And I thought the Nuggets problem was too many guys wanting too few minutes; not tonight. Without Faried, McGee and Robinson (or Nurkic) that lineup is paper thin. Mozgov went 7-14 from the floor, better than I noticed while watching; he hustles, big body, but he looked gassed by halftime. Afflalo went 9-14 but had strangely little impact on the game, looks smooth when he's rolling but disappears for long stretches. Lawson's a smart player, used the high screen to his advantage over and over.
Yowza! All the 3-point shooting for the Raptors came from the bench: Patterson and Williams went 8-17, the starters went 1-16. The fact that the Raptors are getting scoring and defense off the bench is what keeps them dangerous into the 4th quarter night after night. 13 assists for Lowry, 26/12 Valanciunas, Williams with 26 off the bench, Patterson chipping 19/8, good balance on this squad.
Nuggets at Raptors (-10)
The Nuggets (9-11. 11th in the West) have a great and unique home court advantage that gives them a reason to compete. But in a tough Western Conference they look pretty mediocre. They've got a lot of 'nice' players but lack that one guy that makes it all work. Occasionally a rotation like that sneaks wins but usually it gets bested in the 4th quarter and this Nuggets team falls squarely in the latter group. There's enough intriguing talents to go with the home court advantage to assume they'll be okay but probably not playoff-worthy (indeed, that combo probably makes them trade bait-worthy). In the West good is not good enough so you gotta figure a nice East Coast road trip is exactly what the Nuggets need to get some easy W's, right? Nope: @Hawks, @ Wizards, @Raptors in 4 days--doh! Good luck with that. Man, even the easy part of their schedule is letting them down this season. Mediocre teams need all the extra luck they can get...and this ain't it.
The Raptors (15-5, 1st in the East) hit the ground running this year, just like I thought they would. They've got good starting talent, a nice looking bench and they rounded into shape right at the end of the year, going down in the playoffs to the Paul Pierce-led Nets (words you won't read ever again, I bet). I believe we haven't seen the best of the Raptors, even though DeRozan is out til the All-Star break apparently, they should have the depth to survive in the East. I predicted they'd finish 1st in the East and I think I'll stick with that.
The Nuggets may look mediocre but West-mediocre is East-not bad. But I think the Raps (-10) will handle their business tonight on their home floor.
1st -- Raptors 35-30
2nd -- Raptors 27-22
Lot of minutes for Mozgov, especially considering he's expected to pick up the rebounding slack in the absence of Faried; Valanciunas over and over again got the better of Mozgov. (Why isn't Faried working out in Denver this year? Thought he was ready to have his blow-up year. And where's Nurkic?) Ty Lawson with 8 assists at half, he's balling. Gallinari not getting a lot of minutes even though this is Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights; he doesn't looks like he's gonna score out there tonight but shouldn't he be getting minutes just to fill space? Wilson Chandler (trade bait d'jour!) was hot early on but disappeared by halftime; I know he's everybody's favorite swing man to be out on the trade market but I don't see much in his game outside of occasional hot shooting that contributes much.
Vazquez gets the start with DeRozan out, noticed Lou Williams subbed for Lowry, then Lowry came back after a break for Vazquez; seems like a lot of early minutes for a guy used to coming off the bench. Raptors slowed down toward the end of the first half, the Nuggets cut into the lead with a late spurt. The Raptors were by far the better team in the first but only up 10 at half.
3rd -- Nuggets 29-20
4th -- Nuggets 21-20
OT -- Raptors 10-5
The Raptors give up way too many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, Nuggets finally get over their turnover problems and start knocking down some shots. Patrick Patterson is one of the most under appreciated players in the league these days, off the bench he does a lot for this team, he can speed them up or slow them down, decent outside shooter, makes timely plays, good defender, etc. James Johnson, too, is balling off the bench, he's got legit offensive moves, effortless with his back to the basket. Lowry is the one that runs this team but Lou off the bench keeps it going; the combo of Lou Williams and Grievus Vazquez is what will keep the Raptors afloat while DeRozan convalesces.
The Nuggets made a game of it but the Raptors handled their business in OT like a veteran club should. But kudos to the Nuggets for covering the spread.
Box Score Notes
Man, a ton of minutes for Nuggets starters: Mozgov and Lawson barely got off the floor--in at OT game? On the 2nd night of a back-to-back? 3rd road game in 4 days? Jeez, these guys are gonna be in shape (if they don't die). And I thought the Nuggets problem was too many guys wanting too few minutes; not tonight. Without Faried, McGee and Robinson (or Nurkic) that lineup is paper thin. Mozgov went 7-14 from the floor, better than I noticed while watching; he hustles, big body, but he looked gassed by halftime. Afflalo went 9-14 but had strangely little impact on the game, looks smooth when he's rolling but disappears for long stretches. Lawson's a smart player, used the high screen to his advantage over and over.
Yowza! All the 3-point shooting for the Raptors came from the bench: Patterson and Williams went 8-17, the starters went 1-16. The fact that the Raptors are getting scoring and defense off the bench is what keeps them dangerous into the 4th quarter night after night. 13 assists for Lowry, 26/12 Valanciunas, Williams with 26 off the bench, Patterson chipping 19/8, good balance on this squad.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Coach of the Year update
Mike Malone isn't going to win Coach of the Year, you heard it here first! If you'd told me before the season that Mike Malone would be the first coach fired I wouldn't have been surprised; but considering the hot start the Kings had, it is shocking that they'd fire Malone now. Why fire Malone at all much less right now? Ty Corbin is an upgrade? Frankly the Kings record right now is waaaaay better than I would've thought going into the season. Indeed, I think they've already overachieved and are not going to get any better as the year goes on.
Can they get George Karl? Maybe but I think Karl can do better and will pass on this opportunity. Can they get Mark Jackson? Ditto. I suspect there will be better jobs available by next fall and Jackson can get a better shot than Sacramento.
The Kings have Demarcus Cousins on what I think is the best contract in the League for the next 3 years. After that....not much. If they think Malone wasn't the guy, that's fine--personally I have no idea who Mike Malone is so I can't sit here and argue for or against him. But if the Kings organization truly feels like they're going to win games immediately, they are nuts. This is not a good team, they haven't drafted well (outside of Cousins), they haven't made strong trades or brought in good free agents in over a decade. Cousins is a talented talented basketball player but he's a toxic personality, some would say a 'coach killer' and a tough option to make the face of your franchise. Any coach's first priority is to suck up to Cousins, not the best way to start out.
The team isn't good enough to lure in a veteran coach and Cousins is too toxic to make a go with an up-and-comer. I think Mike Malone was probably as good as they're gonna do. But, hey, now they're back in the running for the #1 pick!
Can they get George Karl? Maybe but I think Karl can do better and will pass on this opportunity. Can they get Mark Jackson? Ditto. I suspect there will be better jobs available by next fall and Jackson can get a better shot than Sacramento.
The Kings have Demarcus Cousins on what I think is the best contract in the League for the next 3 years. After that....not much. If they think Malone wasn't the guy, that's fine--personally I have no idea who Mike Malone is so I can't sit here and argue for or against him. But if the Kings organization truly feels like they're going to win games immediately, they are nuts. This is not a good team, they haven't drafted well (outside of Cousins), they haven't made strong trades or brought in good free agents in over a decade. Cousins is a talented talented basketball player but he's a toxic personality, some would say a 'coach killer' and a tough option to make the face of your franchise. Any coach's first priority is to suck up to Cousins, not the best way to start out.
The team isn't good enough to lure in a veteran coach and Cousins is too toxic to make a go with an up-and-comer. I think Mike Malone was probably as good as they're gonna do. But, hey, now they're back in the running for the #1 pick!
ROY Update
Missed last week but I'm back. The NBA is up to 61 new debut players this year, adding CJ Wilcox (Clippers) and Mitch McGary (Thunder) since the last update blog post. Julius Randle is still 20th in rookie MPG, who are the 19 ahead of him?
Wiggins (30.7), Noel (30.5), Parker (30.2), Bogdanovic (28.6), LaVine (25.5), Papanickolau (25.5), McDaniels (25.3), Payton (24.6), Napier (21.4), Mirotic (17.8), Exum (17.4), Hood (17.2), Ingles (17.0), Black (17.0), Rudez (16.7), Smart (16.4), Hairston (15.3), Gordon (15.0), Stauskas (14.1)
LaVine has made the most eye-opening jump. In the two weeks since my last update LaVine has gone from 20.5 MPG to 25.5, a jump indicating that the Wolves are ready to rely on LaVine to spell the injured Ricky Rubio. Speaking of the Wolves, Wiggins has jumped from 28.6 to 30.7 MPG in the last two weeks. The youth movement seems to be coming along nicely in Minnesota though they have dropped to dead last in the West with only 1 win out of their last 9 games. Hey, just makes the youth movement that much stronger, right?
In other youth movements around the league, Rodney Hood had gone from 14.5 two weeks ago to 17.2 this week, edging ahead of teammate Joe Ingles whose minutes have fallen slightly. Ingles is an older player and not really meant to be part of the youth movement so it makes sense that Hood has seemingly made the jump to join Exum in the rookies needing minutes department.
Smart is back from injury and not yet getting the minutes he was earlier in the year. Part of this is because the Celtics, while not getting a lot of wins, are a scrappy team that is improving at staying in games later, perhaps that contributes to less playing time for rookies. I suspect that Smart's minutes will be back up next time I update this list and certainly by the end of the year; Smart needs to play and the Celtics know that to be the case.
Wiggins (30.7), Noel (30.5), Parker (30.2), Bogdanovic (28.6), LaVine (25.5), Papanickolau (25.5), McDaniels (25.3), Payton (24.6), Napier (21.4), Mirotic (17.8), Exum (17.4), Hood (17.2), Ingles (17.0), Black (17.0), Rudez (16.7), Smart (16.4), Hairston (15.3), Gordon (15.0), Stauskas (14.1)
LaVine has made the most eye-opening jump. In the two weeks since my last update LaVine has gone from 20.5 MPG to 25.5, a jump indicating that the Wolves are ready to rely on LaVine to spell the injured Ricky Rubio. Speaking of the Wolves, Wiggins has jumped from 28.6 to 30.7 MPG in the last two weeks. The youth movement seems to be coming along nicely in Minnesota though they have dropped to dead last in the West with only 1 win out of their last 9 games. Hey, just makes the youth movement that much stronger, right?
In other youth movements around the league, Rodney Hood had gone from 14.5 two weeks ago to 17.2 this week, edging ahead of teammate Joe Ingles whose minutes have fallen slightly. Ingles is an older player and not really meant to be part of the youth movement so it makes sense that Hood has seemingly made the jump to join Exum in the rookies needing minutes department.
Smart is back from injury and not yet getting the minutes he was earlier in the year. Part of this is because the Celtics, while not getting a lot of wins, are a scrappy team that is improving at staying in games later, perhaps that contributes to less playing time for rookies. I suspect that Smart's minutes will be back up next time I update this list and certainly by the end of the year; Smart needs to play and the Celtics know that to be the case.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
NFL Power Rankings
The season is rapidly closing, time to look ahead and see how the teams will finish. I looked at the coming games for the next four weeks, picked out my winners/losers. Here's what I ended up with.
AFC
13 wins -- Pats, Broncos
11 -- Bengals, Colts, Chiefs
10 -- Dolphins
9 -- Ravens, Texans
8 -- Steelers, Browns, Chargers,
7 -- Bills
5 -- Titans
2 -- NYJ, Jags, Raiders
1st round of the playoffs -- Pats, Broncos (bye), Dolphins at Bengals, Chiefs at Colts
Colts-Chiefs rematch (gotta go with Luck). Andy Dalton gets a home game (not sure, the weather could be a huge factor in that match). Pats, Broncos just waiting around to play each other.
NFC
13 wins -- Packers
12 -- Eagles
11 -- Seahawks, Cowboys, Lions
10 -- Cards
9 -- Niners, Rams,
8 -- Falcons
7 -- Saints, Vikings
5 -- Bears
4 -- Panthers, NYG, Bucs
3 -- Redskins
1st round of the playoffs -- Packers, Eagles (bye), Cowboys at Falcons, Lions at Seahawks
Cowboys all-world OL against the Falcons brutally awful DL, gotta figure Romo pulls it out. Lions have no offense against one of the best D's in the league, I'll take the Seahawks at home.
Yeah, its a little early to make my playoff picks but that's what predictions are all about. Looking over the coming schedule it looked to me like in addition to the Broncos, Pats and Packers punking everyone that unfortunately has to play them (Bills play all three down the stretch, ouch!), the Chiefs and Rams are gonna charge to the finish. We'll see.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Pointless NBA trade idea
Hawks get:
PG Trey Burke
F/C Enes Kanter
A trade exception
The Hawks move forward with Kanter to replace Millsap, which should still be good enough for playoffs this year in the East; Burke adds bench depth for the next few years; the cap is unaffected; still plenty of money at the ready to chase another free agent this summer. Perhaps the Hawks think they can keep Millsap but I'm betting he'll be wanting a big raise, a really big raise, a NYK kinda raise and though the Hawks have the money, something in me says they'd rather spend that money on something shiny and new or maybe spread it over multiple positions rather than re-up Millsap; I'm not saying Kanter is as good as Millsap but going forward he'll be a reasonable replacement (especially if Adrien Payne, currently of the D League, emerges with any kind of skill). Burke and Shroder may be too many guys with not enough playing time and Shelvin Mack would become expendable but I suggest a plethora of talented guards will be valuable in one way or another.
Suns get:
F Paul Millsap
PG/SG Rodney Hood
The Suns give Goran Dragic's extension money to Paul Millsap, rely on Bledsoe and Thomas to run the offense. Whether they keep Dragic or trade him, I suspect Gerald Green is gone next year, so this year they may as get as many minutes and production as he can stand. I sent Hood to the Suns simply because I thought they could use another G off the bench a little more than the Hawks. I like Millsap to mesh with Bledsoe and shore up the interior offense and defense, I think they could play Millsap as a PF with Plumlee/Len or as C with the Morris twins. Millsap gives them someone veteran gravitas and brings a big body to the roster instead of re-signing Goran. I love Goran but he and Bledose both need the ball and the Isiah-off-the-bench thing is clearly weirding him out. I thought the Suns would struggle for a bit to replace Channing Fyre but I thought the 3-guard offense would keep the offensive attack rolling in a new way--and it may still work out. But to me it looks like Goran won't be back next year and I think they'd be better off going for a F or a C more than another PG.
Jazz get:
G Goran Dragic
G Zoran Dragic
The Jazz add another long term piece to go with Hayward, Burks and Favors and they feature a running offense that wants to score, score, score. They'll be fun to watch even if they don't go deep in the playoffs. Zoran is not a bad player, coming off the bench with Exum and Ingles should keep that offense flowing. Burke and Kanter just don't look like the right fits for the Jazz and if they could package them for Goran Dragic, I say do it.
Why would teams want to give the long term money to new guys instead of the players they know? They probably wouldn't. But in this case I think these guys just fit better in other places. Trey Burke is a rival to Dante Exum but Goran Dragic is a mentor. Enes Kanter is a nice big man but he doesn't fit what the Jazz do, doesn't mean he's not a good player just that he's not the best fit long term for Hayward, Favors and Burks but he might go better with Horford, Korver and Teague. Burke is surrounded by talented guards in Utah and he would still be in Atlanta, but moving to the East would almost assuredly make him better, don't ya think? I think Millsap could be good in Phoenix because...well, I think he can be good most anywhere but I think Coach Hornacek would incorporate Millsap on both ends of the court quickly. (I hate to use Rodney Hood as a stocking stuffer, its quite possible that he emerges as a good solid scorer in this league soon enough but for now he smooths out the contracts)
Obviously the deal hinges on Kanter, Millsap and Dragic accepting extensions in the off-season (which would technically be illegal to negotiate ahead of time, would it not?). The idea that these guys might prosper on other teams and that other teams might find some common ground here overwhelmed me enough to put it in a blog post.
ROY Update
59 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year. Julius Randle (14.0) is still 20th in Rookie MPG, who are the 19 ahead of him (sorry, Stauskas, your time is dwindling)?
Bogdanovic (30.5), Nerlens (30.5), Jabari (29.6), Wiggins (28.6), Papanikolau (25.5), McDaniels (24.4), Payton (23.9), Napier (23.0), LaVine (20.7), Smart (20.4), Exum (18.1), Ingles (17.8), Rudez (17.4), Mirotic (17.0), Black (17.0), Hairston (16.1), Harris (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Hood (14.5)
Bogdanovic is still playing well for an awful team. His shooting is okay but his asst-to is a little troubling for the amount of time he's playing. I expect he'll stay high on this list throughout the season.
Nerlens is coming along, even if the Sixers aren't. The production is enough to suggest that he is worth the investment the Sixers have made so far. (Terrible FT shooter, wouldn't have thought so)
Jabari is on an up-and-coming team unlike Nerlens and Bogdanovic, that has to feel so good for a rookie. Jabari's contributions actually mean something and he's already clearly a legit player in this league. The consensus pick for ROY (though not my pick), so far I'd say it is his to lose.
Wiggins is getting time and developing nicely. Hasn't started setting the world on fire (too many turnovers, so-so FG%, terrible FT%) but his got the body and over time the game will come to him. Not a ROY, I think, unless he takes a major step forward by the end of the year (and perhaps that will happen once Rubio comes back).
Papanickolau still plugging along. Decent 3-shooter, decent rebounder, good assist numbers, his minutes are firmly his, I expect he'll stay in the Rocket rotation throughout the year.
McDaniels hot start has leveled off some: his FG% coming back down to earth, too many turnovers, though still a surprisingly good shot blocker. Could be the bedrock of the Sixer bench for years to come or maybe he's just overacheived on a team with little expectation of achieving, we'll see.
Elfrid Payton is still looking good to me. The numbers aren't astounding (why are all these kids such terrible FT shooters?!?) but his poise on the court is undeniable, he looks like an NBA player. As the Magic rotation settles in, I expect he'll be a meaningful part of that team all year long--and a Magic push for the playoffs does not seem like such a long shot in the East.
Napier, like Payton, looks like he belongs. Still too many turnovers but his conservative play is just right for a veteran Heat team. He's a part of that team already (and I suspect will outlast Chalmers and Cole on that roster).
LaVine is an up-and-down player. Did you see him against the Lake Show last week? Dude was balling that night; but other nights he disappears without much flourish. LaVine is still figuring out his place in the Wolves rotation and I suspect he is more of a highlight reel guy than a work pail kinda rookie. That's not to say he won't be a fine player in this league, just that his accomplishments will be of a more ethereal nature than stuffing a stat sheet.
Exum and Ingles are both getting good minutes in the Jazz rotation. Neither are exactly tearing up gthe league but neither is playing poorly. The Jazz probably have a trade or two in them so we'll see what the roster looks like by the end of the season. Exum is clearly the long term guy but maybe Ingles will be the short team guy.
I'm a little puzzled by Rudez. His minutes have actually gone down when I thought they'd go up. But then again the Pacers are better than they ought to be so maybe Rudez's contribution will have to come in smaller doses. (Gotta admit, I haven't watched the Pacers yet this year, haven't seen Rudez actually suit up)
Though Mirotic is currently sitting at 14th on this list, I expect that his minutes will increase. I think Mirotic has the versatility to plug in for any number of injuries (and you know the Bulls are gonna have plenty of them), so any extra minutes out there are gonna go to him. Good player, man, all around he's got a little bit of everything in his game, probably as all-around good as anyone in this rookie crop.
Tarik Black is Dwight Howard's backup. His minutes are probably gonna stay around this level for the entire year regardless of his production. He's not there for the output, he's there because he has long legs and Dwight can't play 48 minutes a night.
Hairston is suddenly getting minutes on the dysfunctional Hornets, a team way way way worse than I would've thought (and I wasn't that high on them to begin with). The real problem for the Hornets is there are no problems! This is the team they have and unless they start making crazy trades or figure out some new way to do things, they're not getting any better. Where does Hairston fit in? No telling but as long as there is chaos I reckon he'll keep getting thrown out there.
Hood isn't turning the ball over or committing egregious fouls but he's not knocking down shots either. With the sudden appearance of Ingles, Hood is even further down the depth chart than I anticipated, not writing him off but clearly it'll take a little longer for Hood to get his reps on the court. (And, again, the Jazz have moves to make and he could end up on a different squad by year's end)
Smart, Harris and Gordon have not (if I'm not mistaken) played since the last time I updated this. Marcus Smart still has plenty of time to develop and Aaron Gordon had already firmly planted himself in the Magic rotation before his injury. Not sure what's up with Gary Harris (or the Denver Nuggets, for that matter).
My original ROY pick was a tie between Payton and Nerlens and I'd say they're both still in the top five. I would add Jabari to that mix, Bogdanovic and Wiggins will have admirers come voting time, don't forget about Marcus Smart, and keep an eye on Mirotic, I think his opportunities are the most variable of anyone out there.
Also, James Ennis (Heat), Doug McDermott (Bulls), Joe Harris (Cavs) and Nik Stauskas (Kings) play pretty regular minutes and it feels like TJ Warren (Suns) might blow up outta nowhere at any time.
Bogdanovic (30.5), Nerlens (30.5), Jabari (29.6), Wiggins (28.6), Papanikolau (25.5), McDaniels (24.4), Payton (23.9), Napier (23.0), LaVine (20.7), Smart (20.4), Exum (18.1), Ingles (17.8), Rudez (17.4), Mirotic (17.0), Black (17.0), Hairston (16.1), Harris (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Hood (14.5)
Bogdanovic is still playing well for an awful team. His shooting is okay but his asst-to is a little troubling for the amount of time he's playing. I expect he'll stay high on this list throughout the season.
Nerlens is coming along, even if the Sixers aren't. The production is enough to suggest that he is worth the investment the Sixers have made so far. (Terrible FT shooter, wouldn't have thought so)
Jabari is on an up-and-coming team unlike Nerlens and Bogdanovic, that has to feel so good for a rookie. Jabari's contributions actually mean something and he's already clearly a legit player in this league. The consensus pick for ROY (though not my pick), so far I'd say it is his to lose.
Wiggins is getting time and developing nicely. Hasn't started setting the world on fire (too many turnovers, so-so FG%, terrible FT%) but his got the body and over time the game will come to him. Not a ROY, I think, unless he takes a major step forward by the end of the year (and perhaps that will happen once Rubio comes back).
Papanickolau still plugging along. Decent 3-shooter, decent rebounder, good assist numbers, his minutes are firmly his, I expect he'll stay in the Rocket rotation throughout the year.
McDaniels hot start has leveled off some: his FG% coming back down to earth, too many turnovers, though still a surprisingly good shot blocker. Could be the bedrock of the Sixer bench for years to come or maybe he's just overacheived on a team with little expectation of achieving, we'll see.
Elfrid Payton is still looking good to me. The numbers aren't astounding (why are all these kids such terrible FT shooters?!?) but his poise on the court is undeniable, he looks like an NBA player. As the Magic rotation settles in, I expect he'll be a meaningful part of that team all year long--and a Magic push for the playoffs does not seem like such a long shot in the East.
Napier, like Payton, looks like he belongs. Still too many turnovers but his conservative play is just right for a veteran Heat team. He's a part of that team already (and I suspect will outlast Chalmers and Cole on that roster).
LaVine is an up-and-down player. Did you see him against the Lake Show last week? Dude was balling that night; but other nights he disappears without much flourish. LaVine is still figuring out his place in the Wolves rotation and I suspect he is more of a highlight reel guy than a work pail kinda rookie. That's not to say he won't be a fine player in this league, just that his accomplishments will be of a more ethereal nature than stuffing a stat sheet.
Exum and Ingles are both getting good minutes in the Jazz rotation. Neither are exactly tearing up gthe league but neither is playing poorly. The Jazz probably have a trade or two in them so we'll see what the roster looks like by the end of the season. Exum is clearly the long term guy but maybe Ingles will be the short team guy.
I'm a little puzzled by Rudez. His minutes have actually gone down when I thought they'd go up. But then again the Pacers are better than they ought to be so maybe Rudez's contribution will have to come in smaller doses. (Gotta admit, I haven't watched the Pacers yet this year, haven't seen Rudez actually suit up)
Though Mirotic is currently sitting at 14th on this list, I expect that his minutes will increase. I think Mirotic has the versatility to plug in for any number of injuries (and you know the Bulls are gonna have plenty of them), so any extra minutes out there are gonna go to him. Good player, man, all around he's got a little bit of everything in his game, probably as all-around good as anyone in this rookie crop.
Tarik Black is Dwight Howard's backup. His minutes are probably gonna stay around this level for the entire year regardless of his production. He's not there for the output, he's there because he has long legs and Dwight can't play 48 minutes a night.
Hairston is suddenly getting minutes on the dysfunctional Hornets, a team way way way worse than I would've thought (and I wasn't that high on them to begin with). The real problem for the Hornets is there are no problems! This is the team they have and unless they start making crazy trades or figure out some new way to do things, they're not getting any better. Where does Hairston fit in? No telling but as long as there is chaos I reckon he'll keep getting thrown out there.
Hood isn't turning the ball over or committing egregious fouls but he's not knocking down shots either. With the sudden appearance of Ingles, Hood is even further down the depth chart than I anticipated, not writing him off but clearly it'll take a little longer for Hood to get his reps on the court. (And, again, the Jazz have moves to make and he could end up on a different squad by year's end)
Smart, Harris and Gordon have not (if I'm not mistaken) played since the last time I updated this. Marcus Smart still has plenty of time to develop and Aaron Gordon had already firmly planted himself in the Magic rotation before his injury. Not sure what's up with Gary Harris (or the Denver Nuggets, for that matter).
My original ROY pick was a tie between Payton and Nerlens and I'd say they're both still in the top five. I would add Jabari to that mix, Bogdanovic and Wiggins will have admirers come voting time, don't forget about Marcus Smart, and keep an eye on Mirotic, I think his opportunities are the most variable of anyone out there.
Also, James Ennis (Heat), Doug McDermott (Bulls), Joe Harris (Cavs) and Nik Stauskas (Kings) play pretty regular minutes and it feels like TJ Warren (Suns) might blow up outta nowhere at any time.
Monday, December 1, 2014
NBA Game of the Week
Wolves (4-10) at Blazers (12-4)
The Wolves are a team in flux, this year is all about figuring out what they'll have next year. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging just under 30 mins a game and rookie Zach LaVine is starting to get important minutes in the absence of Ricky Rubio, while 2nd year guys Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad are firmly part of the rotation now. All about the youngsters, as the Wolves spent most of the off-season trying to get rid of any veterans making money (JJ Barea out, Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer got the rumors swirling) and yet...they added Thaddeus Young (why?). The kids are struggling in the brutal Western Conference but there is something lovable about the fact that their road record (2-5) is identical to their home record; hey, at least they're not intimidated on the road.
Last year, the Blazers surprised a lot of people with their remarkable start. They faded toward the end of the season, managed to beat the Rockets in the 1st round even though they gave up home court advantage. 2nd round is nice but to go further I thought they'd need an upgrade, at least a scoring replacement for Mo Williams, and while Steve Blake and Chris Kaman are solid veterans off the bench, I didn't think that would be enough, I thought the Blazers would flounder by the end of the year. But so far, so good for the Blazers, they've again gotten off to a good start and find themselves in 4th place in the West coming into this game. How will they handle this year's 2nd half fade?
The Blazers are a 13.5 favorite at home. I like the Blazers to get the victory but I'll take the young Wolves to keep it the game tighter than 13.
1st -- Wolves 26-22
2nd -- Blazers 26-14
Aldridge was off to a brilliant start, seemed like he was hitting everything. Batum, too, wasn't as deadly with his shot but defensively he was active, all over the boards. Lillard seems a little sluggish tonight, seems like Mo Williams has got him spooked: I don't mean to suggest that Mo is shutting Lillard down but as soon as Mo leaves, Lillard goes off. Hmmm....Mo Williams is Lillard kryptonite? Who saw that coming? Kaman is a nice change of pace off the bench, Aldridrge gets to rest a bit without too much drop off down low. So that's Joel Freeland, huh? Don't think I've ever seen him play before...has he ever played before? Wow, he's pretty awful out there! Allen Crabbe!
I've seen enough of Wiggins to know that that kid can play, keep giving him minutes, he needs to play. Not the kind of rookie that's going to put a team on his back or anything, this isn't Magic's rookie season, but he's clearly contributing and worthy of a fair amount of the hype. Thad Young wasn't hitting the broad side of a barn early on; when they traded for Young I didn't think it was a bad deal (although they did give up a 1st rounder for him) because kinda like baseball, you need veterans to give you innings, you know? But looking back on it, why bother? The Wolves have plenty of bodies that will want playing time, why not keep that 1st rounder? Chase Budinger kinda looks like Kaman, no? Like Kaman is his pirate mentor. Shabazz Muhammad off the bench! Every time I watched the Wolves last year, Shabazz and Gorgui would go off and I'd wonder why they weren't playing more. Well, Rick Adelman is gone, all the veterans are gone, and Gorgui and Shabazz are getting some run finally. LaVine kinda sluggish in his early appearances tonight and with Mo Williams' sly magic in this building, perhaps this is just not his night. Anthony Bennett...kinda Freeland-ish out there. I kinda miss Rubio, I'd love to see him with these kids. Mo Williams is nice off the bench but for 48 minutes these guys need a table setter.
Blake races up the court, feeds Aldridge for the layup at the buzzer--that's called veteran smarts, kids. Blazers up 8 at halftime.
3rd - Blazers 27-21
4th - 32-32
Batum is a pro, man, that guy plays basketball for a living, even when he's not completely on his game you don't mess around with that dude. I think I may have misjudged Terry Stotts; I'm not a great x's-and-o's guy when it comes to basketball, I'm more of a roster construction kinda guy, and when watching a game I'm just trying to get an organic feel for each squad so I'm not the best at discerning the coach's influence. I thought Stotts could be on the hot seat (as I anticipated the Blazers fading in the West this year) but maybe not, he's been there long enough that he's probably established enough there and if the vets like him, why fire him? Even when Lillard isn't going off, he handles his business like a pro night after night.
Shabazz is still balling for the Wolves and Mo Williams looks like he's having fun out there, but not much else from the Wolves in the 2nd half. Wiggins and LaVine both disappeared, Bennett and Budinger were not productive, Gorgui is kinda the poor man's Lamarcus Aldridge, no? Feels like Flip Saunders is not liking his chances of stealing one on the road in Portland. I'm not saying they would've won tonight with Rubio but he is a different kinda cat and you'd like to think he could've brought more out of the kids tonight.
Final possession, Wolves down by 14, you just need a basket to cover the spread! Come on! Why aren't you...aw crap! The oddsmakers had their finger on 13.5 point pulse tonight.
Blazers 107-93 Wolves
Digging into the stats: The Blazers starters, like last year, play an awful lot of minutes and with no run at all for Robinson, Barton, Claver or McCollum, you wonder how many minutes the big guys can carry. Wesley Matthews quietly rocked this game: 6-10 from 3, 6 boards, 23 points, guy's getting it done. Lillard didn't shoot particularly well but 8 assists-1 turnover is good stuff.
Thaddeus Young ended up 6-11 from the floor in 43 minutes; okay, well, I guess I rescind my original comment: they brought him in to play a lot of minutes and he's playing well enough (even if he's not getting A's on the eye test); the trade made sense to me when they made it, perhaps I should stick with my original narrative and realize that this team already has enough of a youth movement going and there is a need for a reliable guy to book some time. Only 11 minutes for LaVine, only 18 for Wiggins. I can understand letting Mo Williams play more against his old team but why so many minutes for Corey Brewer? Shabazz Muhammad 12-17 from the floor, 28 points, 5 boards in 30 minutes....still gets a -10; the youth movement is fun to watch but it does not translate to wins in the NBA.
The Wolves are a team in flux, this year is all about figuring out what they'll have next year. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging just under 30 mins a game and rookie Zach LaVine is starting to get important minutes in the absence of Ricky Rubio, while 2nd year guys Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad are firmly part of the rotation now. All about the youngsters, as the Wolves spent most of the off-season trying to get rid of any veterans making money (JJ Barea out, Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer got the rumors swirling) and yet...they added Thaddeus Young (why?). The kids are struggling in the brutal Western Conference but there is something lovable about the fact that their road record (2-5) is identical to their home record; hey, at least they're not intimidated on the road.
Last year, the Blazers surprised a lot of people with their remarkable start. They faded toward the end of the season, managed to beat the Rockets in the 1st round even though they gave up home court advantage. 2nd round is nice but to go further I thought they'd need an upgrade, at least a scoring replacement for Mo Williams, and while Steve Blake and Chris Kaman are solid veterans off the bench, I didn't think that would be enough, I thought the Blazers would flounder by the end of the year. But so far, so good for the Blazers, they've again gotten off to a good start and find themselves in 4th place in the West coming into this game. How will they handle this year's 2nd half fade?
The Blazers are a 13.5 favorite at home. I like the Blazers to get the victory but I'll take the young Wolves to keep it the game tighter than 13.
1st -- Wolves 26-22
2nd -- Blazers 26-14
Aldridge was off to a brilliant start, seemed like he was hitting everything. Batum, too, wasn't as deadly with his shot but defensively he was active, all over the boards. Lillard seems a little sluggish tonight, seems like Mo Williams has got him spooked: I don't mean to suggest that Mo is shutting Lillard down but as soon as Mo leaves, Lillard goes off. Hmmm....Mo Williams is Lillard kryptonite? Who saw that coming? Kaman is a nice change of pace off the bench, Aldridrge gets to rest a bit without too much drop off down low. So that's Joel Freeland, huh? Don't think I've ever seen him play before...has he ever played before? Wow, he's pretty awful out there! Allen Crabbe!
I've seen enough of Wiggins to know that that kid can play, keep giving him minutes, he needs to play. Not the kind of rookie that's going to put a team on his back or anything, this isn't Magic's rookie season, but he's clearly contributing and worthy of a fair amount of the hype. Thad Young wasn't hitting the broad side of a barn early on; when they traded for Young I didn't think it was a bad deal (although they did give up a 1st rounder for him) because kinda like baseball, you need veterans to give you innings, you know? But looking back on it, why bother? The Wolves have plenty of bodies that will want playing time, why not keep that 1st rounder? Chase Budinger kinda looks like Kaman, no? Like Kaman is his pirate mentor. Shabazz Muhammad off the bench! Every time I watched the Wolves last year, Shabazz and Gorgui would go off and I'd wonder why they weren't playing more. Well, Rick Adelman is gone, all the veterans are gone, and Gorgui and Shabazz are getting some run finally. LaVine kinda sluggish in his early appearances tonight and with Mo Williams' sly magic in this building, perhaps this is just not his night. Anthony Bennett...kinda Freeland-ish out there. I kinda miss Rubio, I'd love to see him with these kids. Mo Williams is nice off the bench but for 48 minutes these guys need a table setter.
Blake races up the court, feeds Aldridge for the layup at the buzzer--that's called veteran smarts, kids. Blazers up 8 at halftime.
3rd - Blazers 27-21
4th - 32-32
Batum is a pro, man, that guy plays basketball for a living, even when he's not completely on his game you don't mess around with that dude. I think I may have misjudged Terry Stotts; I'm not a great x's-and-o's guy when it comes to basketball, I'm more of a roster construction kinda guy, and when watching a game I'm just trying to get an organic feel for each squad so I'm not the best at discerning the coach's influence. I thought Stotts could be on the hot seat (as I anticipated the Blazers fading in the West this year) but maybe not, he's been there long enough that he's probably established enough there and if the vets like him, why fire him? Even when Lillard isn't going off, he handles his business like a pro night after night.
Shabazz is still balling for the Wolves and Mo Williams looks like he's having fun out there, but not much else from the Wolves in the 2nd half. Wiggins and LaVine both disappeared, Bennett and Budinger were not productive, Gorgui is kinda the poor man's Lamarcus Aldridge, no? Feels like Flip Saunders is not liking his chances of stealing one on the road in Portland. I'm not saying they would've won tonight with Rubio but he is a different kinda cat and you'd like to think he could've brought more out of the kids tonight.
Final possession, Wolves down by 14, you just need a basket to cover the spread! Come on! Why aren't you...aw crap! The oddsmakers had their finger on 13.5 point pulse tonight.
Blazers 107-93 Wolves
Digging into the stats: The Blazers starters, like last year, play an awful lot of minutes and with no run at all for Robinson, Barton, Claver or McCollum, you wonder how many minutes the big guys can carry. Wesley Matthews quietly rocked this game: 6-10 from 3, 6 boards, 23 points, guy's getting it done. Lillard didn't shoot particularly well but 8 assists-1 turnover is good stuff.
Thaddeus Young ended up 6-11 from the floor in 43 minutes; okay, well, I guess I rescind my original comment: they brought him in to play a lot of minutes and he's playing well enough (even if he's not getting A's on the eye test); the trade made sense to me when they made it, perhaps I should stick with my original narrative and realize that this team already has enough of a youth movement going and there is a need for a reliable guy to book some time. Only 11 minutes for LaVine, only 18 for Wiggins. I can understand letting Mo Williams play more against his old team but why so many minutes for Corey Brewer? Shabazz Muhammad 12-17 from the floor, 28 points, 5 boards in 30 minutes....still gets a -10; the youth movement is fun to watch but it does not translate to wins in the NBA.
Monday, November 24, 2014
NBA Game of the Week
Clippers (7-4) at Grizzlies (11-2)
While I thought the Clippers would hit the ground running this season, so far they've been a disappointment sitting in 8th place in the West coming into this game. That said, it is early and they're only 3 games out of 1st for crying out loud. But Chris Paul isn't getting any younger (and that Clipper bench isn't either), they need to do more than just stay afloat if they think they can really come out of the West.
The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have cruised to the top spot due to a full complement of healthy players. Normally they don't get to this level of play until springtime, when they rev into beast mode for the playoffs. Can they sustain this level of success?
1st -- Grizzlies 26-21
2nd -- Grizzlies 27-19
While the Grizzlies are known for stiff defense, it seems like Chris Paul's inability to get anything going in the 1st half was his own reluctance; he's running around out there with little effect. Griffin is not settling in, Jordan got hampered with some questionable foul calls early on, Reddick is better coming off the bench (don't ya think?). Gasol does so much on both ends of the court, I'll say it again: he reminds me of Chris Webber, controlling the offense from the foul line, getting others involved setting up his own scoring. Grizzlies have a good lead at halftime and I don't see the Clippers succeeding at any phase of their game but perhaps halftime will give them an opportunity to re-group.
3rd -- Grizzlies 35-32
4th -- 19-19
Clippers cut the Grizzlies lead to 8 near the end of the 3rd but then the Grizzlies rained a bunch of 3's and kicked the lead back into double digits (where it stayed for the rest of the game). Griffin was my pre-season pick for MVP but Marc Gasol has made a big time believer out of me, he is unstoppable! Mike Conley went 2-6 from the floor (2-5 from the line), had zero steals and 2 turnovers and still the Grizzlies dominated from beginning to end. When Chris Paul is outnumbering your PG, you'd think you'd be in some trouble but not tonight. The lack of scoring depth on the Clippers is gonna be a problem for them all year long. Jamal Crawford is that change-of-pace PG that the Clippers have exploited well over the last coupla years but tonight he can't find a flow, not hitting from anywhere consistently, flailing badly out there. The Grizzlies bench seems to know exactly what their rols is; I was surprised to see so little run for Vince and Calathes (and a DNP for Tayshaun) but they weren't needed as Beno, Pondexter, Koufas and Leuer showed up and gave good minutes. As long as Gasol stays healthy the Grizzlies should finish top 4. maybe even #1.
Grizzlies 107-91 Clippers
A look at the box scores reinforces my obersvations on the team benches: Grizzlies bench scored 35 points on 13-31 shooting, pitched in 21 rebounds and 7 assists while the Clipper bench scored their 31 points on 10-29 shooting, while adding only 5 assists to 2 turnovers. Blake Griffin was 5-17 from the floor, only 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers and a -18 rating tonight. Ouch. Chris Paul had so-so stats but only 5 assists in 34 minutes shows the Clippers just don't have much offense around the big stars. I expect the Clippers to be in the top 8 in the West but top 4 is gonna be tough without some roster moves.
While I thought the Clippers would hit the ground running this season, so far they've been a disappointment sitting in 8th place in the West coming into this game. That said, it is early and they're only 3 games out of 1st for crying out loud. But Chris Paul isn't getting any younger (and that Clipper bench isn't either), they need to do more than just stay afloat if they think they can really come out of the West.
The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have cruised to the top spot due to a full complement of healthy players. Normally they don't get to this level of play until springtime, when they rev into beast mode for the playoffs. Can they sustain this level of success?
1st -- Grizzlies 26-21
2nd -- Grizzlies 27-19
While the Grizzlies are known for stiff defense, it seems like Chris Paul's inability to get anything going in the 1st half was his own reluctance; he's running around out there with little effect. Griffin is not settling in, Jordan got hampered with some questionable foul calls early on, Reddick is better coming off the bench (don't ya think?). Gasol does so much on both ends of the court, I'll say it again: he reminds me of Chris Webber, controlling the offense from the foul line, getting others involved setting up his own scoring. Grizzlies have a good lead at halftime and I don't see the Clippers succeeding at any phase of their game but perhaps halftime will give them an opportunity to re-group.
3rd -- Grizzlies 35-32
4th -- 19-19
Clippers cut the Grizzlies lead to 8 near the end of the 3rd but then the Grizzlies rained a bunch of 3's and kicked the lead back into double digits (where it stayed for the rest of the game). Griffin was my pre-season pick for MVP but Marc Gasol has made a big time believer out of me, he is unstoppable! Mike Conley went 2-6 from the floor (2-5 from the line), had zero steals and 2 turnovers and still the Grizzlies dominated from beginning to end. When Chris Paul is outnumbering your PG, you'd think you'd be in some trouble but not tonight. The lack of scoring depth on the Clippers is gonna be a problem for them all year long. Jamal Crawford is that change-of-pace PG that the Clippers have exploited well over the last coupla years but tonight he can't find a flow, not hitting from anywhere consistently, flailing badly out there. The Grizzlies bench seems to know exactly what their rols is; I was surprised to see so little run for Vince and Calathes (and a DNP for Tayshaun) but they weren't needed as Beno, Pondexter, Koufas and Leuer showed up and gave good minutes. As long as Gasol stays healthy the Grizzlies should finish top 4. maybe even #1.
Grizzlies 107-91 Clippers
A look at the box scores reinforces my obersvations on the team benches: Grizzlies bench scored 35 points on 13-31 shooting, pitched in 21 rebounds and 7 assists while the Clipper bench scored their 31 points on 10-29 shooting, while adding only 5 assists to 2 turnovers. Blake Griffin was 5-17 from the floor, only 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers and a -18 rating tonight. Ouch. Chris Paul had so-so stats but only 5 assists in 34 minutes shows the Clippers just don't have much offense around the big stars. I expect the Clippers to be in the top 8 in the West but top 4 is gonna be tough without some roster moves.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
NBA ROY Update
52 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year. Right now Julius Randle is still tied for 19th in MPG for rookies, so who are the 19 ahead of him?
Bogdanovich (30.5), Jabari (28.6), Nerlens (27.4), Wiggins (26.9), Payton (24.8), Papanickolau (23.4), McDaniels (23.1), Napier (20.6), LaVine (20.5), Smart (20.4), Rudez (19.9), Exum (18.7), Ingles (16.3), Stauskus (15.6), Anderson (15.4), Hood (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Harris (14.5), Black (14.0)
Bogdanovich is for real, he's a little older, shooting 47% from the floor, not exactly re-inventing basketball but he's holding his own there....and the Nets are a trainwreck. I fully expect Bogdanovich to keep playing healthy minutes and being a worthy contributor.
Jabari is a heck of a player, confident out there, looks good on offense, struggles a bit still on D, but with Giannis and Sanders out there with him, his D can be masked. His minutes will probably increase as the year wears on and he gets used to NBA grind. All of these rookies (the Americans, anyway) will hit the rookie wall some time between January and March. Parker is getting a lot of minutes, how will he respond to the wall?
Nerlens is gonna get as many minutes as he can stand. He's gonna be a great shot blocker, not sure yet that he'll be great at anything else (and with the endless stream of undrafted rookie teammates, pretty sure Philly won't be great at anything this year). I picked Nerlens to be a ROY co-winner because I thought he would be a bright spot in a horrible Philly season, could still happen but that season is looking even more horrible than I imagined and Nerlens might find himself swamped out there.
Wiggins will probably increase his minutes by the end of the year. The Wolves are a team in flux and Wiggins is the rudder, all the upcoming roster moves (and there will be more) revolve around him. Again, rookie wall, how does Wiggins respond? I don't think Wiggins wins ROY but I do think he gets minutes and plays well, but not enough wins or highlights to get votes.
Payton played well while Oladipo was injured, now we'll see how he transitions to coming off the bench, which will probably be his normal role this year. I picked Payton as a co-winner of the ROY and I think I'm sticking with him for now. He's played well, his asst-turnover ratio is really good for this point in his burgeoning career, I think he'll have enough highlights, positive moments and the Magic are a fun team to watch. I'm sticking with Payton as ROY.
Papanickolau is the big surprise to me, didn't see this guy coming. But he's pretty good out there, handles himself well, not lighting it up but not overwhelmed either. With the Rockets strange rotation, I reckon he keeps getting minutes and opportunities.
McDaniels hit the ground running, showing some high flying skills and a fearless attitude early in Philly. But, like Nerlens, I think his team will be so desperately bad that I think he gets worn down by the end of the year. Even if he maintains his minutes and performance, I just think all that losing will be really draining and he has very little chance of getting a lot of ROY votes.
Napier looks like he belongs on the Heat already, he is steady with the ball and that's exactly what a veteran squad wants to see. I think Napier keeps getting good minutes, I think he plays well and while I don't see him making a run at ROY, I think he'll be a respected player in this league for the foreseeable future.
LaVine is a surprise to me in how many minutes he's averaging considering how long it took him to get on the floor. He's asst-turnover is pretty fantastic for his limited minutes and I reckon he'll keep getting run in that rotation. Again, the Wolves have a lot of pieces to move and I don't think LaVine will be one of them, but you never know, he could be in a different jersey by year's end.
Smart has been hurt, so his numbers have frozen lately. He hustles like a champ and definitely has an NBA body, not quite sure yet about his game but then again not sure about anything the Celtics are doing, still plenty of time for him to blossom.
Rudez should probably get even more minutes in the depleted Pacer rotation. He's a little older, a veteran, should make the most of his playing time on a bad team. Doesn't seem like a candidate for ROY because hard to imagine he'll contribute enough to make the Pacers viable, but he'll play and get respect.
Exum will probably be getting more minutes by the end of the year. It feels to me like Trey Burke is the odd man out in Utah (or maybe Kanter) and that would mean more time for Exum. He's playing well in limited time, I expect he'll get better.
Joe Ingles is a bit of a fly in the buttermilk for the Jazz: he's playing more minutes and giving more production than I think anyone ever expected he would, thus he is clogging the guard rotation even more than it already was for the Jazz. I keep waiting for Ingles to drop off but so far so good for the veteran Aussie PG.
Stauskus has yet to impress me but he is still getting playing time. While everyone is suddenly on the Kings bandwagon, I am not. I think they're playing the best basketball they're gonna play all year and I wonder whether that means more time and opportunity for Stauskus or less. Not sure where he goes for the rest of the year.
Kyle Anderson will get minutes in the Spurs rotation because everyone gets minutes in the Spurs rotation. And he'll be good in the Spurs rotation because everyone is good in the Spurs rotation. Frankly he won't have enough opportunity to win ROY but he should keep getting minutes.
Rodney Hood, along with Exum and Ingles, is another rook fighting for time in that Jazz rotation. He's currently shooting 26% from 3 and I can't help be feel like Hood is another odd man out in Utah.
Aaron Gordon just got hurt for the Magic, out at least a few weeks. Too bad, he was having fun out there and really just starting to get his feet wet. Oh well, perhaps being in and out of the lineup will help him sneak past the rookie wall.
Joe Harris....I don't know who that is. Plays for Cleveland?
Tarik Black is getting Dwight Howard's backup minutes in Houston. Nice work if you can get it.
PJ Hairston (Hornets), Gary Harris (Nuggets), James Ennis (Heat) and the McDermott/Mirotic platoon look to keep getting minutes and opportunities too.
Still haven't seen Adrien Payne (Hawks) or Mitch McGary (Thunder). They fighting injury concerns or what? I know that Jerami Grant (Sixers) is coming off an ankle injury but I full expect the Sixers to throw him in for yet another debut soon enough.
Bogdanovich (30.5), Jabari (28.6), Nerlens (27.4), Wiggins (26.9), Payton (24.8), Papanickolau (23.4), McDaniels (23.1), Napier (20.6), LaVine (20.5), Smart (20.4), Rudez (19.9), Exum (18.7), Ingles (16.3), Stauskus (15.6), Anderson (15.4), Hood (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Harris (14.5), Black (14.0)
Bogdanovich is for real, he's a little older, shooting 47% from the floor, not exactly re-inventing basketball but he's holding his own there....and the Nets are a trainwreck. I fully expect Bogdanovich to keep playing healthy minutes and being a worthy contributor.
Jabari is a heck of a player, confident out there, looks good on offense, struggles a bit still on D, but with Giannis and Sanders out there with him, his D can be masked. His minutes will probably increase as the year wears on and he gets used to NBA grind. All of these rookies (the Americans, anyway) will hit the rookie wall some time between January and March. Parker is getting a lot of minutes, how will he respond to the wall?
Nerlens is gonna get as many minutes as he can stand. He's gonna be a great shot blocker, not sure yet that he'll be great at anything else (and with the endless stream of undrafted rookie teammates, pretty sure Philly won't be great at anything this year). I picked Nerlens to be a ROY co-winner because I thought he would be a bright spot in a horrible Philly season, could still happen but that season is looking even more horrible than I imagined and Nerlens might find himself swamped out there.
Wiggins will probably increase his minutes by the end of the year. The Wolves are a team in flux and Wiggins is the rudder, all the upcoming roster moves (and there will be more) revolve around him. Again, rookie wall, how does Wiggins respond? I don't think Wiggins wins ROY but I do think he gets minutes and plays well, but not enough wins or highlights to get votes.
Payton played well while Oladipo was injured, now we'll see how he transitions to coming off the bench, which will probably be his normal role this year. I picked Payton as a co-winner of the ROY and I think I'm sticking with him for now. He's played well, his asst-turnover ratio is really good for this point in his burgeoning career, I think he'll have enough highlights, positive moments and the Magic are a fun team to watch. I'm sticking with Payton as ROY.
Papanickolau is the big surprise to me, didn't see this guy coming. But he's pretty good out there, handles himself well, not lighting it up but not overwhelmed either. With the Rockets strange rotation, I reckon he keeps getting minutes and opportunities.
McDaniels hit the ground running, showing some high flying skills and a fearless attitude early in Philly. But, like Nerlens, I think his team will be so desperately bad that I think he gets worn down by the end of the year. Even if he maintains his minutes and performance, I just think all that losing will be really draining and he has very little chance of getting a lot of ROY votes.
Napier looks like he belongs on the Heat already, he is steady with the ball and that's exactly what a veteran squad wants to see. I think Napier keeps getting good minutes, I think he plays well and while I don't see him making a run at ROY, I think he'll be a respected player in this league for the foreseeable future.
LaVine is a surprise to me in how many minutes he's averaging considering how long it took him to get on the floor. He's asst-turnover is pretty fantastic for his limited minutes and I reckon he'll keep getting run in that rotation. Again, the Wolves have a lot of pieces to move and I don't think LaVine will be one of them, but you never know, he could be in a different jersey by year's end.
Smart has been hurt, so his numbers have frozen lately. He hustles like a champ and definitely has an NBA body, not quite sure yet about his game but then again not sure about anything the Celtics are doing, still plenty of time for him to blossom.
Rudez should probably get even more minutes in the depleted Pacer rotation. He's a little older, a veteran, should make the most of his playing time on a bad team. Doesn't seem like a candidate for ROY because hard to imagine he'll contribute enough to make the Pacers viable, but he'll play and get respect.
Exum will probably be getting more minutes by the end of the year. It feels to me like Trey Burke is the odd man out in Utah (or maybe Kanter) and that would mean more time for Exum. He's playing well in limited time, I expect he'll get better.
Joe Ingles is a bit of a fly in the buttermilk for the Jazz: he's playing more minutes and giving more production than I think anyone ever expected he would, thus he is clogging the guard rotation even more than it already was for the Jazz. I keep waiting for Ingles to drop off but so far so good for the veteran Aussie PG.
Stauskus has yet to impress me but he is still getting playing time. While everyone is suddenly on the Kings bandwagon, I am not. I think they're playing the best basketball they're gonna play all year and I wonder whether that means more time and opportunity for Stauskus or less. Not sure where he goes for the rest of the year.
Kyle Anderson will get minutes in the Spurs rotation because everyone gets minutes in the Spurs rotation. And he'll be good in the Spurs rotation because everyone is good in the Spurs rotation. Frankly he won't have enough opportunity to win ROY but he should keep getting minutes.
Rodney Hood, along with Exum and Ingles, is another rook fighting for time in that Jazz rotation. He's currently shooting 26% from 3 and I can't help be feel like Hood is another odd man out in Utah.
Aaron Gordon just got hurt for the Magic, out at least a few weeks. Too bad, he was having fun out there and really just starting to get his feet wet. Oh well, perhaps being in and out of the lineup will help him sneak past the rookie wall.
Joe Harris....I don't know who that is. Plays for Cleveland?
Tarik Black is getting Dwight Howard's backup minutes in Houston. Nice work if you can get it.
PJ Hairston (Hornets), Gary Harris (Nuggets), James Ennis (Heat) and the McDermott/Mirotic platoon look to keep getting minutes and opportunities too.
Still haven't seen Adrien Payne (Hawks) or Mitch McGary (Thunder). They fighting injury concerns or what? I know that Jerami Grant (Sixers) is coming off an ankle injury but I full expect the Sixers to throw him in for yet another debut soon enough.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
NBA Transactions
As a weekly blogging excursion I'd like to keep up with the league's transactions. I understand that most weeks will be devoid of interesting moves but there will be a few weeks in there where I'll be glad I kept with this (I mean....right?). Also, interesting to note that NBA.com and ESPN.com do not completely agree on what a 'transaction' is, the discrepancies could be informative. I'll go back three weeks in this first post.
Monday, November 17 -- Pacers announce they'll be keeping G AJ Price for another ten days after receiving a second hardship exception from the league. I did not realize that this kind of exception even applied to 10-day contracts (or multiple 10-day contracts). Then again I've never noticed 10-day contracts this early in the season, I thought they were salary cap shenanigans that had little to do with the actual day-to-day moves on the court. Price has played over 100 minutes this season so I guess the Pacers have plans to keep him in the mix.
Saturday, November 15 -- Sixers sign F Robert Covington. Another undrafted player for the Sixer roster. This could be the one, this could be the undrafted, untested, diamond in the rough the Sixers have been looking for. We'll see.
Friday, November 14 -- Warriors sent G Justin Holiday and C Ognjen Kuzmic to Santa Cruz of the D-League. I don't know Holiday but Kuzmic is 2012 draftee that has been biding his time on the bench. The D-League should offer those guys some minutes to play.
Thursday, November 13 -- Jazz assigned G Toure Murry to Idaho of the D-League. Murry played 50 games for the Knicks last year but the Jazz feature a lot of young guys that all need a lot of minutes to develop. Unless the Jazz start moving out some of their young guards, it doesn't look like there will be much room for Murry this season.
Monday, November 10 -- Grizzlies recall F Jarnell Stokes and G Jordan Adams from the D-League. Seems early in the season to shuffle guys in and out of the D but I guess the Grizzlies have a plan to keep these guys getting minutes. They have both debuted with the Grizzlies but neither has gotten much time yet. (Personally I was a big Jarnell Stokes fan in NCAA, I think that guy can be a rebounding force)
Monday, November 10 -- Sixers sign C Drew Gordon from the D-League (Delaware). Another undrafted player for the Sixer roster. This could be the one, this could be the undrafted, untested, diamond in the rough the Sixers have been looking for. We'll see. (Yeah, I just copy-and-pasted from the previous entry...I got a feeling it won't be the last time I use that this year)
Sunday, November 9 -- Grizzlies waive G Kailin Lucas. Making roster space for the return of Adams and Stokes, presumably.
Friday, November 7 -- Thunder sign G Ish Smith. When Smith was cut by the Rockets at the end of pre-season he struck me as probably the best unsigned G out there. (Thought he was a good fit for the Sixers but with his years of experience, I guess he's just not the kind of guy they want right now) Not surprised he got signed by the Thunder, given their injuries and depth issues, I expect Smith will see solid minutes throughout the season.
Thursday, November 6 -- Clippers name Gillian Zucker as president of business operations. Zucker comes over from the world of auto racing, having managed a track in northern California for the previous coupla years. I assume this won't be a terribly high profile job and I have no way to assess how good she'll be, but it does beg the question: how many women have upper management positions in the NBA?
Wednesday, November 5 -- The Sixers announced a whole host of folks filling internal positions, too many unfamiliar names with vague titles to recount here. Strangely enough the one name I recognized was Sean Rooks (a player development coach), who was drafted by the Mavs in 1992. Can't help but wonder if his draft status was a strike against him getting this job.
Monday, November 17 -- Pacers announce they'll be keeping G AJ Price for another ten days after receiving a second hardship exception from the league. I did not realize that this kind of exception even applied to 10-day contracts (or multiple 10-day contracts). Then again I've never noticed 10-day contracts this early in the season, I thought they were salary cap shenanigans that had little to do with the actual day-to-day moves on the court. Price has played over 100 minutes this season so I guess the Pacers have plans to keep him in the mix.
Saturday, November 15 -- Sixers sign F Robert Covington. Another undrafted player for the Sixer roster. This could be the one, this could be the undrafted, untested, diamond in the rough the Sixers have been looking for. We'll see.
Friday, November 14 -- Warriors sent G Justin Holiday and C Ognjen Kuzmic to Santa Cruz of the D-League. I don't know Holiday but Kuzmic is 2012 draftee that has been biding his time on the bench. The D-League should offer those guys some minutes to play.
Thursday, November 13 -- Jazz assigned G Toure Murry to Idaho of the D-League. Murry played 50 games for the Knicks last year but the Jazz feature a lot of young guys that all need a lot of minutes to develop. Unless the Jazz start moving out some of their young guards, it doesn't look like there will be much room for Murry this season.
Monday, November 10 -- Grizzlies recall F Jarnell Stokes and G Jordan Adams from the D-League. Seems early in the season to shuffle guys in and out of the D but I guess the Grizzlies have a plan to keep these guys getting minutes. They have both debuted with the Grizzlies but neither has gotten much time yet. (Personally I was a big Jarnell Stokes fan in NCAA, I think that guy can be a rebounding force)
Monday, November 10 -- Sixers sign C Drew Gordon from the D-League (Delaware). Another undrafted player for the Sixer roster. This could be the one, this could be the undrafted, untested, diamond in the rough the Sixers have been looking for. We'll see. (Yeah, I just copy-and-pasted from the previous entry...I got a feeling it won't be the last time I use that this year)
Sunday, November 9 -- Grizzlies waive G Kailin Lucas. Making roster space for the return of Adams and Stokes, presumably.
Friday, November 7 -- Thunder sign G Ish Smith. When Smith was cut by the Rockets at the end of pre-season he struck me as probably the best unsigned G out there. (Thought he was a good fit for the Sixers but with his years of experience, I guess he's just not the kind of guy they want right now) Not surprised he got signed by the Thunder, given their injuries and depth issues, I expect Smith will see solid minutes throughout the season.
Thursday, November 6 -- Clippers name Gillian Zucker as president of business operations. Zucker comes over from the world of auto racing, having managed a track in northern California for the previous coupla years. I assume this won't be a terribly high profile job and I have no way to assess how good she'll be, but it does beg the question: how many women have upper management positions in the NBA?
Wednesday, November 5 -- The Sixers announced a whole host of folks filling internal positions, too many unfamiliar names with vague titles to recount here. Strangely enough the one name I recognized was Sean Rooks (a player development coach), who was drafted by the Mavs in 1992. Can't help but wonder if his draft status was a strike against him getting this job.
Monday, November 17, 2014
NBA Game of the Week
As a regular blogging possibility, I thought I'd take up a Game of the Week. I'll set the scene for the match (probably a Saturday or Sunday game), offer notes and/or observations on the gameplay and final stats, give a wrap-up of what went down. I'd like to see as many teams as possible, although there are/will be teams I don't particularly care to watch, I'll probably get in all 30 at least once.
Bucks (4-5) at Heat (5-4)
While most pundits had the Heat comfortably making the playoffs in the East, just how the Heat would remake themselves post-Lebron was what we'd been waiting to see. After 9 games it feels like we've seen it: adding Deng and McRoberts to a core of crafty veterans (Chalmers, Andersen, Cole, Haslem), moving the focus of the offense over to Bosh, picking up good rookie minutes from Shabazz and Ennis to go with whatever they can get out of D Wade is how they they plan to restore the production that took its talents back to Lake Erie. Bosh is playing like an MVP and the rest of the team is doing what it needs to do, probably all comes down to Wade's back and just how far Bosh can go. It's a long season but they look to be in the hunt for a home playoff series.
The Bucks only won 15 games last year though the roster looked to have enough veteran grit to at least outplay the Sixers and pick up a few W's. Oh well, they picked up Jabari Parker for their troubles. Rookie Jabari to go with another year of Giannis and the youth movement is looking pretty good. Add in Larry Sanders back from injury and that is a formidable front court, especially in the East. That said, the Bucks could vastly improve this year and still never even sniff a playoff spot. So far they're hanging, won 5 of their first 9 games, will they hang around .500 all year (which would surely get them into the playoffs)? I doubt it but we'll see. Giannis and Jabari are legit, the sooner they figure out how good they are, the sooner they get to getting good. Can they test the savvy Heat on their homefloor?
I'll take the Heat to handle their business.
1st: Heat 23-19
2nd: Heat 23-19
Heat are without Wade and McRoberts tonight, testing their depth against the upstart Bucks. Bosh is so impressive, takes over when he wants, can get anywhere on the floor, can score from all over and still be a serious shot blocker at the other end. I'm impressed with Ennis and Shabazz, both really know how to handle themselves out there, play within themselves and the team concept. With Wade taking games off (you know he will), the rooks should probably get plenty of playing time. What's gonna happen to Mario Chalmers? He's a solid veteran PG by now but it just doesn't feel like he fits the Heat somehow. The Heat up by 8 at the half,
Bucks are fun to watch, man, just a bunch of dudes running around crazy out there! Love to watch Giannis attack the rack, his sense of the game continues to mature, his body control is Durant-like. Jabari looks really confident, good to see, reminds me of a happy smiley Paul Pierce. There was a great Reddit piece last week about Brandon Knight: a guy broke down every possession and measured Knight's highs and lows. Basically it was an equal amount of amazing highs and head-scratching lows. I'm seeing it here tonight: one play he's Jamal Crawford getting shots and setting people up, next minute he looks like Tim Conway on basketball. His upside is still strong but his downside can be scary. On the other hand the Wolters-Mayo-Bayless back court was not inspiring confidence.
3rd: Bucks 26-13
4th: Bucks 27-25
Where'd the Heat go? Bosh really flailed after halftime. All of a sudden the Heat could not penetrate the Bucks D. Gotta say: that Sanders-Jabari-Giannis-Bayless-Knight defensive unit is pretty good, a lotta long arms and quick feet out there. Were the Heat missing Wade's scoring or McRoberts' nifty passing? Missing both couldn't have been good. The Bucks limited their turnovers and were able to grind out possessions better than the Heat could. In the final minutes, Knight nailed three straight 3's (the last one with Bosh in his grill!), kept the Heat from clawing back into it. Good win for the Bucks, these young kids hang on every moment of goodness. Now they find themselves 6th in East, gives them something to hold on to.
Disappointing loss for the Heat. Probably figured a Sunday night game at home against the upstart Bucks was in the bag. But without the Wade and McRoberts, the lack of depth was exposed. Now they find themselves tied for 6th with the Bucks, between the Hawks and the Nets. I fully expect the Heat to win more games than they lose, I'm not quite ready to say that about the Bucks. The Heat have the proper stars, supporting cast and coach, but they also have 'senior moments' and don't feature a great deal of depth. The Bucks have exciting youth, which almost never wins in the NBA, but the guard play is going to be spotty all year and they've got a lot of changes to go through, basically a team of trade bait.
Bucks 81-74 Heat
Any insights in the stats? For the Bucks, Kendall Marshall failed to get off the bench, John Henson only played 3 minutes, Jared Dudley only played 10, Ersan Ilyasova played 12. Nagging injuries, coach's doghouse, matchup concerns or do these guys represent the first up on the trade block? Personally I'd keep Henson, think his game is really underrated, but Marshall is too inconsistent, Dudley a bit past his prime and Ilyasova is superfluous if Middleton is gonna get the forward minutes...Do the Bucks want Brandon Knight back next year?....Giannis was only 3-7 from the FT line, hate to see a young player lock in bad habits.
For the Heat: 39 mins for Bosh, 37 for Deng, 35 for Chalmers, only 7 for Haslem (how much are they paying him? How many years on that deal?)....Not sure that relying on big minutes from Williams or Cole is gonna work out for the Heat in the long run....Bosh really had trouble against that young front court, 2-17 from the floor, couldn't hit the 3 or consistently get to the FT line. Deng was only 3-11 from the floor....Without Wade to take up some defensive pressure and McRoberts to whip the ball around, those old legs for Miami are gonna have trouble against tough young rosters like the Bucks. The Heat will get better throughout the season, there's still time to tinker.
Bucks (4-5) at Heat (5-4)
While most pundits had the Heat comfortably making the playoffs in the East, just how the Heat would remake themselves post-Lebron was what we'd been waiting to see. After 9 games it feels like we've seen it: adding Deng and McRoberts to a core of crafty veterans (Chalmers, Andersen, Cole, Haslem), moving the focus of the offense over to Bosh, picking up good rookie minutes from Shabazz and Ennis to go with whatever they can get out of D Wade is how they they plan to restore the production that took its talents back to Lake Erie. Bosh is playing like an MVP and the rest of the team is doing what it needs to do, probably all comes down to Wade's back and just how far Bosh can go. It's a long season but they look to be in the hunt for a home playoff series.
The Bucks only won 15 games last year though the roster looked to have enough veteran grit to at least outplay the Sixers and pick up a few W's. Oh well, they picked up Jabari Parker for their troubles. Rookie Jabari to go with another year of Giannis and the youth movement is looking pretty good. Add in Larry Sanders back from injury and that is a formidable front court, especially in the East. That said, the Bucks could vastly improve this year and still never even sniff a playoff spot. So far they're hanging, won 5 of their first 9 games, will they hang around .500 all year (which would surely get them into the playoffs)? I doubt it but we'll see. Giannis and Jabari are legit, the sooner they figure out how good they are, the sooner they get to getting good. Can they test the savvy Heat on their homefloor?
I'll take the Heat to handle their business.
1st: Heat 23-19
2nd: Heat 23-19
Heat are without Wade and McRoberts tonight, testing their depth against the upstart Bucks. Bosh is so impressive, takes over when he wants, can get anywhere on the floor, can score from all over and still be a serious shot blocker at the other end. I'm impressed with Ennis and Shabazz, both really know how to handle themselves out there, play within themselves and the team concept. With Wade taking games off (you know he will), the rooks should probably get plenty of playing time. What's gonna happen to Mario Chalmers? He's a solid veteran PG by now but it just doesn't feel like he fits the Heat somehow. The Heat up by 8 at the half,
Bucks are fun to watch, man, just a bunch of dudes running around crazy out there! Love to watch Giannis attack the rack, his sense of the game continues to mature, his body control is Durant-like. Jabari looks really confident, good to see, reminds me of a happy smiley Paul Pierce. There was a great Reddit piece last week about Brandon Knight: a guy broke down every possession and measured Knight's highs and lows. Basically it was an equal amount of amazing highs and head-scratching lows. I'm seeing it here tonight: one play he's Jamal Crawford getting shots and setting people up, next minute he looks like Tim Conway on basketball. His upside is still strong but his downside can be scary. On the other hand the Wolters-Mayo-Bayless back court was not inspiring confidence.
3rd: Bucks 26-13
4th: Bucks 27-25
Where'd the Heat go? Bosh really flailed after halftime. All of a sudden the Heat could not penetrate the Bucks D. Gotta say: that Sanders-Jabari-Giannis-Bayless-Knight defensive unit is pretty good, a lotta long arms and quick feet out there. Were the Heat missing Wade's scoring or McRoberts' nifty passing? Missing both couldn't have been good. The Bucks limited their turnovers and were able to grind out possessions better than the Heat could. In the final minutes, Knight nailed three straight 3's (the last one with Bosh in his grill!), kept the Heat from clawing back into it. Good win for the Bucks, these young kids hang on every moment of goodness. Now they find themselves 6th in East, gives them something to hold on to.
Disappointing loss for the Heat. Probably figured a Sunday night game at home against the upstart Bucks was in the bag. But without the Wade and McRoberts, the lack of depth was exposed. Now they find themselves tied for 6th with the Bucks, between the Hawks and the Nets. I fully expect the Heat to win more games than they lose, I'm not quite ready to say that about the Bucks. The Heat have the proper stars, supporting cast and coach, but they also have 'senior moments' and don't feature a great deal of depth. The Bucks have exciting youth, which almost never wins in the NBA, but the guard play is going to be spotty all year and they've got a lot of changes to go through, basically a team of trade bait.
Bucks 81-74 Heat
Any insights in the stats? For the Bucks, Kendall Marshall failed to get off the bench, John Henson only played 3 minutes, Jared Dudley only played 10, Ersan Ilyasova played 12. Nagging injuries, coach's doghouse, matchup concerns or do these guys represent the first up on the trade block? Personally I'd keep Henson, think his game is really underrated, but Marshall is too inconsistent, Dudley a bit past his prime and Ilyasova is superfluous if Middleton is gonna get the forward minutes...Do the Bucks want Brandon Knight back next year?....Giannis was only 3-7 from the FT line, hate to see a young player lock in bad habits.
For the Heat: 39 mins for Bosh, 37 for Deng, 35 for Chalmers, only 7 for Haslem (how much are they paying him? How many years on that deal?)....Not sure that relying on big minutes from Williams or Cole is gonna work out for the Heat in the long run....Bosh really had trouble against that young front court, 2-17 from the floor, couldn't hit the 3 or consistently get to the FT line. Deng was only 3-11 from the floor....Without Wade to take up some defensive pressure and McRoberts to whip the ball around, those old legs for Miami are gonna have trouble against tough young rosters like the Bucks. The Heat will get better throughout the season, there's still time to tinker.
Monday, November 10, 2014
NBA Playoff Predictions
A little late on the post but I swear my playoff projections are from before opening night. So far so good?
East
Raptors over Knicks in 5
Bulls over Heat in 7
Cavs over Hornets in 4
Wizards over Hawks in 7
Raptors over Wizards in 7
Bulls over Cavs in 7 (Bulls-Cavs in the 2nd round!)
Bulls over Raptors in 6
West
Rockets over Clippers in 6
Spurs over Thunder in 6 (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round!)
Suns over Mavs in 6
Warriors over Grizzlies in 7
Warriors over Rockets in 6
Spurs over Suns in 7
Spurs over Warriors in 7
Finals
Spurs over Bulls in 7, gonna be a great one!
These picks are two weeks old now but I still believe.
East
Raptors over Knicks in 5
Bulls over Heat in 7
Cavs over Hornets in 4
Wizards over Hawks in 7
Raptors over Wizards in 7
Bulls over Cavs in 7 (Bulls-Cavs in the 2nd round!)
Bulls over Raptors in 6
West
Rockets over Clippers in 6
Spurs over Thunder in 6 (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round!)
Suns over Mavs in 6
Warriors over Grizzlies in 7
Warriors over Rockets in 6
Spurs over Suns in 7
Spurs over Warriors in 7
Finals
Spurs over Bulls in 7, gonna be a great one!
These picks are two weeks old now but I still believe.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
NBA: 6th Man of the Year
6th Man of the Year, to my mind, is an award for most impactful non-starter: not necessarily the first guy off the bench or even the most minutes off the bench but the best minutes off the bench, the player that can drive teams in limited appearances.
(One wacky suggestion: Watching the Orlando Magic it is clear that Tobias Harris can play and is ready to take a step forward. While I think he can play just fine with Payton and the starters, I think Harris could be even more valuable coming off the bench, dominating the offense as a 2nd teamer. Also, considering that he did not get his extension picked up, that seems to make him a trade candidate which could find him coming off the bench for a playoff team (Rockets? Knicks?). So while he doesn't look like a 6th Man type guy right now, by the all-star break I think Tobias Harris could be an off the bench badass)
Active players that have previously won the 6th Man Award: Ben Gordon (2005), Mike Miller (2006), Leandro Barbosa (2007), Manu Ginobli (2008), Jason Terry (2009), Jamal Crawford (2010, 2014), James Harden (2012), JR Smith (2013).
Harden (Rockets) has long since moved on from his 6th man duties. Gordon (Magic), Miller (Cavs), Barbosa (Warriors) are deep on the bench of talent-rich squads. Ginobli (Spurs) could get some votes but realistically the Spurs are a cohesive unit with no cog more important than any other. Terry (Rockets), Smith (Knicks) are likely to get good 6th Man type minutes, could get hot, could some votes. Crawford is probably a good bet to repeat as he'll be performing the exact same role on what I think will be an even better team.
Just to look for new possibilities, here are the active players that have received 1st place for 6th Man in the past: Hedo Turkoglu (Clippers), Andrei Kirilenko (Nets), Mo Williams (Wolves), Kyle Korver (Hawks), Nate Robinson (Nuggets), Anderson Varejao (Cavs), Paul Millsap (Hawks), Taddeus Young (Wolves), Lou Williams (Raptors), Taj Gibson (Bulls), Jarret Jack (Nets), Kevin Martin (Wolves), Ryan Anderson (Pelicans), Markieff Morris (Suns), Reggie Jackson (Thunder), Vince Carter (Grizzlies).
Turkoglu, Kirilenko, Jack, Martin, Williams, Robinson don't look to get 6th man type minutes. Korver, Millsap, Young, Gibson, Morris are starters these days.
Keep an eye on Varejao, Anderson, Jackson and Carter. Varejao could be a steadying force for the struggling Cavs. Anderson is a helluva player, could be a star coming off the bench for the Pelicans. Jackson might get too many starting minutes to get his proper time off the bench. Carter will be asked to do the same thing he's been doing for the Mavs, should flourish in Memphis, could well nab himself a tasty accolade near the end of his career.
Other notables that have received top ten votes in the past: Channing Frye (Magic), Jose Calderon (Knicks), Chris Andersen (Heat), David Lee (Warriors), Grievius Vasquez (Raptors), Dion Waiters (Cavs).
Frye could be the veteran leader that pushes the Magic into the top 8 in the East. Calderon should feast off the bench for the Knicks. Andersen has a few more years left in him, could be indispensible to winning Bosh an MVP. Lee is a forgotten man in Golden State, he could remake himself coming off the bench for a good squad. Vasquez will get a lot of important minutes with the Raptors this year, could be great. If Waiters gets with the plan, he could have a career year.
Other notables that have never received votes before: Shaun Livingston (Warriors), Gerald Green, Isiah Thomas (Suns), Amare Stoudamire (Knicks).
I think Livingston could really shine off the bench in Golden State. Green and Thomas will be both get big minutes and plenty of focus for the Suns this year. Stoudamire could end his time in New York as an overpaid punchline or he could embrace his bench minutes and look forward to the future with a brilliant year in limited time.
Best bet is Jamal Crawford (especially since my narrative is a dominant Clippers season). But I like the Warriors to go far, so keep an eye on Livingston or Lee.
(One wacky suggestion: Watching the Orlando Magic it is clear that Tobias Harris can play and is ready to take a step forward. While I think he can play just fine with Payton and the starters, I think Harris could be even more valuable coming off the bench, dominating the offense as a 2nd teamer. Also, considering that he did not get his extension picked up, that seems to make him a trade candidate which could find him coming off the bench for a playoff team (Rockets? Knicks?). So while he doesn't look like a 6th Man type guy right now, by the all-star break I think Tobias Harris could be an off the bench badass)
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
NFL Power Rankings (Week 9)
NFC
D Eagles
D Cards
W Seahawks
D Packers
D Saints
W Lions
Niners
Cowboys
Panthers
NYG
Bears
Vikings
Redskins
Rams
Falcons
I like Sanchez to keep the Eagles winning.
The Cards have a solid D but I'm not sold on the offense yet.
The Seahawks have endured some tough time, still think they're up there.
The Packers are just getting their roll on.
The Saints don't even have to play well to get a home playoff game (time to return that thumping they suffered in Seattle back in the day?)
The Lions have a good D, should have enough offense to get to the playoffs.
AFC
D Broncos
D Pats
D Bengals
D Colts
W Ravens
W Dolphins
Chargers
Steelers
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Texans
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders
Broncos and Pats back on top.
I still like the Bengals, they've had some lame moments but I still think they're better than most.
The Colts have Andrew Luck, good enough to win that division.
The Ravens are up and down but when healthy I think they're still dangerous.
The Dolphins have grown enough to hold it together.
D Eagles
D Cards
W Seahawks
D Packers
D Saints
W Lions
Niners
Cowboys
Panthers
NYG
Bears
Vikings
Redskins
Rams
Falcons
I like Sanchez to keep the Eagles winning.
The Cards have a solid D but I'm not sold on the offense yet.
The Seahawks have endured some tough time, still think they're up there.
The Packers are just getting their roll on.
The Saints don't even have to play well to get a home playoff game (time to return that thumping they suffered in Seattle back in the day?)
The Lions have a good D, should have enough offense to get to the playoffs.
AFC
D Broncos
D Pats
D Bengals
D Colts
W Ravens
W Dolphins
Chargers
Steelers
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Texans
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders
Broncos and Pats back on top.
I still like the Bengals, they've had some lame moments but I still think they're better than most.
The Colts have Andrew Luck, good enough to win that division.
The Ravens are up and down but when healthy I think they're still dangerous.
The Dolphins have grown enough to hold it together.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
NBA: MVP
Who could get MVP consideration this year? Half of the teams won't be good enough to produce an MVP, another half of the remaining won't either. Still, I came up with 21 guys worth adding to the conversation.
Previous winners: KG, Duncan, Kobe, Dirk, Lebron, D Rose, KD
KG stop playing years ago, he just keeps getting dem checks; Duncan doesn't care about that stuff and his rotation has way too many cogs to have an MVP (and it'd be Parker anyway); Kobe will have the whole team to himself, he'll get some votes but the Lakers are too awful to have an MVP; Dirk isn't the MVP of the Mavs so much as the cherry on top, the adult that'll step up when need be but the team should be pretty good around him; Lebron will be sharing the touches and limelight with KLove and Kyrie, I think they take votes from each other, Lebron ends with his lowest MVP vote total of his career; D Rose is on a team that will be carried by its depth, not its star, and I think the Bulls will be good whether D Rose is MVP-level or not; KD has already missed games but I think he'll be stellar by the end of the year and should get some votes.
Some East contenders: Melo, Rondo, Bosh, Horford, Big Al, Wall
Melo should have a monster season, won't win enough games but he'll get some votes; I think the Celtics will be awful, I think Rondo is stuck in Boston, doesn't get traded to a team where he can make an MVP type difference; Bosh will be huge and his team goes as far as he can take them, he'll get votes, might even win; Horford will come back strong and if the Hawks overachieve Horford probably gets the glory; ditto the Hornets, if they improve it'll be Big Al's team not Kemba's or Lance's; I think the Wiz will be a really good regular season team, should improve by a lot, Wall could get a lot of the credit for that.
Some West contenders: Harden, Gasol, Bledsoe, Curry, Davis, Cousins, Rubio
The Rockets go as far as hard Harden carries them, he could win an MVP; if the Grizz improve from last year, Gasol should get some votes (and he's all set to be next summer's prized free agent); Bledsoe will surprise people with his improvement, Suns make the playoffs he might could get some votes; Curry is poised to be better than ever but I think the Warriors improve based on the supporting cast more than Curry, I think he's awesome but not really an MVP; Davis, too, is great but I'm not sure he's ready to really take over a team yet, at least I don't think the Pelicans make the playoffs this year; Cousins is awesome, he's been awesome, he'll still be awesome but he'll also still be in Sacramento; keep an eye on Ricky Rubio: the Wolves are his team now and if he has them humming by the end of the year, he'll get some cred for that.
I think Blake Griffin wins MVP. I think the Clippers win a ton of games this year, the media darlings, triumphant story, lots of highlights, impressive win totals, Lakers suck, the Clippers get much glory. I think Jordan gets defensive player of the year votes, I think Chris Paul establishes himself as the lockdown OG in the league and Griffin gets the big cut of the glory. Anthony Davis will get there but I think its Griffin's time now.
Harden, Bosh, KD, Melo, Lebron, Curry, Wall I think will all be in the talk by the end of the year (with some squawks for Tony Parker).
But note the collection of dudes whose teams will go as far as he can take them: Bosh (Heat), Harden (Rockets), Rubio (Wolves), Melo (Knicks), Gasol (Grizzlies), Cousins (Kings). Harden will by far have the most touches of any Rocket this year; Bosh will carry huge portions of the load for the Heat; the Wolves are Rubio's team now, whatever he does is what they'll get; Melo is still the #1 ball dominant offensive force in the league and the Knicks have not much else; Gasol is surrounded by good players but he is the one that makes them go (a la Chris Webber controlling everything from the foul line); Cousins is a beast but the sort of beast that needs constant service and ironically enough: an MVP season won't convince anyone to play with him. (I guess you could throw in Kobe (Lakers), maybe even Rondo (Celtics) but I don't think I'll bother)
But a lot of other players don't fit that description because they've got (seemingly) the right talent around them: the Cavs big 3 or any particular player in the Bulls or Spurs rotations or John Wall, Steph Curry, Eric Bledsoe or any of the Suns, Dirk, the Raptors guys. Those players have the talent around them to not really need to be an MVP.
Kooky twist: The Clippers will only go as far as Chris Paul can take them but I still think Griffin wins the MVP. Didn't think I'd go through all that just to bet it all on an anomaly.
Previous winners: KG, Duncan, Kobe, Dirk, Lebron, D Rose, KD
KG stop playing years ago, he just keeps getting dem checks; Duncan doesn't care about that stuff and his rotation has way too many cogs to have an MVP (and it'd be Parker anyway); Kobe will have the whole team to himself, he'll get some votes but the Lakers are too awful to have an MVP; Dirk isn't the MVP of the Mavs so much as the cherry on top, the adult that'll step up when need be but the team should be pretty good around him; Lebron will be sharing the touches and limelight with KLove and Kyrie, I think they take votes from each other, Lebron ends with his lowest MVP vote total of his career; D Rose is on a team that will be carried by its depth, not its star, and I think the Bulls will be good whether D Rose is MVP-level or not; KD has already missed games but I think he'll be stellar by the end of the year and should get some votes.
Some East contenders: Melo, Rondo, Bosh, Horford, Big Al, Wall
Melo should have a monster season, won't win enough games but he'll get some votes; I think the Celtics will be awful, I think Rondo is stuck in Boston, doesn't get traded to a team where he can make an MVP type difference; Bosh will be huge and his team goes as far as he can take them, he'll get votes, might even win; Horford will come back strong and if the Hawks overachieve Horford probably gets the glory; ditto the Hornets, if they improve it'll be Big Al's team not Kemba's or Lance's; I think the Wiz will be a really good regular season team, should improve by a lot, Wall could get a lot of the credit for that.
Some West contenders: Harden, Gasol, Bledsoe, Curry, Davis, Cousins, Rubio
The Rockets go as far as hard Harden carries them, he could win an MVP; if the Grizz improve from last year, Gasol should get some votes (and he's all set to be next summer's prized free agent); Bledsoe will surprise people with his improvement, Suns make the playoffs he might could get some votes; Curry is poised to be better than ever but I think the Warriors improve based on the supporting cast more than Curry, I think he's awesome but not really an MVP; Davis, too, is great but I'm not sure he's ready to really take over a team yet, at least I don't think the Pelicans make the playoffs this year; Cousins is awesome, he's been awesome, he'll still be awesome but he'll also still be in Sacramento; keep an eye on Ricky Rubio: the Wolves are his team now and if he has them humming by the end of the year, he'll get some cred for that.
I think Blake Griffin wins MVP. I think the Clippers win a ton of games this year, the media darlings, triumphant story, lots of highlights, impressive win totals, Lakers suck, the Clippers get much glory. I think Jordan gets defensive player of the year votes, I think Chris Paul establishes himself as the lockdown OG in the league and Griffin gets the big cut of the glory. Anthony Davis will get there but I think its Griffin's time now.
Harden, Bosh, KD, Melo, Lebron, Curry, Wall I think will all be in the talk by the end of the year (with some squawks for Tony Parker).
But note the collection of dudes whose teams will go as far as he can take them: Bosh (Heat), Harden (Rockets), Rubio (Wolves), Melo (Knicks), Gasol (Grizzlies), Cousins (Kings). Harden will by far have the most touches of any Rocket this year; Bosh will carry huge portions of the load for the Heat; the Wolves are Rubio's team now, whatever he does is what they'll get; Melo is still the #1 ball dominant offensive force in the league and the Knicks have not much else; Gasol is surrounded by good players but he is the one that makes them go (a la Chris Webber controlling everything from the foul line); Cousins is a beast but the sort of beast that needs constant service and ironically enough: an MVP season won't convince anyone to play with him. (I guess you could throw in Kobe (Lakers), maybe even Rondo (Celtics) but I don't think I'll bother)
But a lot of other players don't fit that description because they've got (seemingly) the right talent around them: the Cavs big 3 or any particular player in the Bulls or Spurs rotations or John Wall, Steph Curry, Eric Bledsoe or any of the Suns, Dirk, the Raptors guys. Those players have the talent around them to not really need to be an MVP.
Kooky twist: The Clippers will only go as far as Chris Paul can take them but I still think Griffin wins the MVP. Didn't think I'd go through all that just to bet it all on an anomaly.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
NBA: Coach of the Year
I want to start by figuring which coaches are on the hot seat. A quick examination of all 30 coaches.
1st year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Flip Saunders (Wolves), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)
This crop is not likely to get fired but there are varying degrees of untouchability here. Pistons, Cavs, Wolves, Warriors are absolutely set, I don't see any of these guys getting put out this year for just about any reason. Knicks, Jazz have found their guys for now and I don't see those coaches getting overly shamed/blamed for on-court troubles. Nets, Lakers have found their caretaker coaches for now but if a big name comes available, these teams could be wheeling and dealing by next summer.
Only Jason Kidd stands out as a wild card: Bucks have seemingly invested a lot in a coach that hasn't shown that a) he can play well with others or b) he can coach. Kidd is such a loose cannon and this team is such a wild wreck of a squad than I can see Kidd getting run out of town on a whim...or he could be great and win Coach of the Year, I suppose that's possible too.
2nd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Brian Shaw (Nuggets), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers), Mike Malone (Kings)
I think these teams are satisfied with their coaches right now, with one possible exception: Mike Malone (Kings). Honestly I had to look up who the Kings' coach was because I had no idea. I still have no idea. The Kings are gonna be awful this year, the coach will likely be judged on the development of the youth but that will be hard to measure because outside of Cousins, this team is a dumpster fire. Does Malone survive? Does Malone even want to survive? I don't know.
Another one that could have hot-seat-ed-ness this year is Brian Shaw (Nuggets). I think the Nuggets will be their usual mediocre selves this year, better than last year but not in the playoffs. Shaw's fault? Not at all, but they might think they can do better unless they see certain improvements. I don't know what would make them think Shaw is doing a good job, so I don't know how they grade his viability as a future coach.
3rd year coaches: Jacques Vaughn (Magic), Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)
Vaughn is a popular choice for first fired and I think I concur. The Magic have an interesting collection of talent and should be an exciting team to watch. Probably not enough to make the playoffs but the kind of team that needs to see improvement if the coach will survive...or maybe it doesn't even matter. The Magic will likely be looking to upgrade at the coaching position by next summer and they could be the popular spot for up-and-comers looking to make a splash (does Billy Donovan still fit that description?).
I think the Wizards will be good and Wittman will have a solid season, making his extension in the off-season look like a smart move (though no one thought so at the time).
The Blazers are set to decline in the West. Does Stotts take the blame? Can Stotts be the difference in keeping them for dipping? Not sure the answer to either of those questions. If they start badly he could be out of there in a hurry; since I don't see them making the playoffs, I think he could be out by next summer.
4th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)
Vogel got his extension last month, an acknowledgement that the horrific season the Pacers are about to endure is not Vogel's fault. Good for him, I think its a good move for the Pacers to punt this season and come back with a healthy Paul George in 2015.
I think the Raptors will have a good year, Casey will get Coach of the Year consideration.
McHale is another one of those on everyone's short list for first coach fired and again I think I agree. He's had enough time, enough big stars, enough role players, enough roster turnover to show that he knows what he's doing and indeed I think he's shown he doesn't. Unless the Rockets go deep in the playoffs (possible), I think McHale is out by the start of next season--and sooner if things go horribly wrong during the regular season.
5th year coaches: Tom Thibodeau (Bulls), Monte Williams (Pelicans)
Thibs is untouchable. And if he does get fired, he'll have another job by the end of the day.
Williams is another hot seat favorite but I do not agree: if Williams can get the Pelicans into the playoffs (I doubt it), then Williams gets an extension; if not, I think he does not shoulder the blame for the disastrous Eric Gordon signing and gets an extension anyway. Far from being on the hot seat, I think he's cementing his place in New Orleans.
Veteran coaches: Scott Brooks (Thunder), Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)
Pop, Spo and Carlisle are safe for the foreseeable future. I think they'll all have good years, get Coach of the Year consideration.
Brooks, on the other hand, will be fighting for respect all year long. I think the Thunder will be way down from the last coupla years and it'll lead to one of two scenarios: either Brooks gets blamed for everything and unceremoniously dumped or management doubles down on Brooks and he gets a big raise. Honestly I go 50/50 on either scenario but I'm increasingly certain one of those will come to pass.
So who wins Coach of the Year? I'll take Doc Rivers. I think Clippers dominate the regular season, highlights, victories, much love and praise. I think Dwayne Casey comes in second. Spoelstra, Wittman, Thibodeau get votes from the East; Carlisle, Popovich, Kerr and Hornacek get votes in the West.
And who gets fired? I say Vaughn, McHale, Stotts and Malone all gone by the end of the year. Brooks could go either way no matter what happens.
1st year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Flip Saunders (Wolves), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)
This crop is not likely to get fired but there are varying degrees of untouchability here. Pistons, Cavs, Wolves, Warriors are absolutely set, I don't see any of these guys getting put out this year for just about any reason. Knicks, Jazz have found their guys for now and I don't see those coaches getting overly shamed/blamed for on-court troubles. Nets, Lakers have found their caretaker coaches for now but if a big name comes available, these teams could be wheeling and dealing by next summer.
Only Jason Kidd stands out as a wild card: Bucks have seemingly invested a lot in a coach that hasn't shown that a) he can play well with others or b) he can coach. Kidd is such a loose cannon and this team is such a wild wreck of a squad than I can see Kidd getting run out of town on a whim...or he could be great and win Coach of the Year, I suppose that's possible too.
2nd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Brian Shaw (Nuggets), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers), Mike Malone (Kings)
I think these teams are satisfied with their coaches right now, with one possible exception: Mike Malone (Kings). Honestly I had to look up who the Kings' coach was because I had no idea. I still have no idea. The Kings are gonna be awful this year, the coach will likely be judged on the development of the youth but that will be hard to measure because outside of Cousins, this team is a dumpster fire. Does Malone survive? Does Malone even want to survive? I don't know.
Another one that could have hot-seat-ed-ness this year is Brian Shaw (Nuggets). I think the Nuggets will be their usual mediocre selves this year, better than last year but not in the playoffs. Shaw's fault? Not at all, but they might think they can do better unless they see certain improvements. I don't know what would make them think Shaw is doing a good job, so I don't know how they grade his viability as a future coach.
3rd year coaches: Jacques Vaughn (Magic), Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)
Vaughn is a popular choice for first fired and I think I concur. The Magic have an interesting collection of talent and should be an exciting team to watch. Probably not enough to make the playoffs but the kind of team that needs to see improvement if the coach will survive...or maybe it doesn't even matter. The Magic will likely be looking to upgrade at the coaching position by next summer and they could be the popular spot for up-and-comers looking to make a splash (does Billy Donovan still fit that description?).
I think the Wizards will be good and Wittman will have a solid season, making his extension in the off-season look like a smart move (though no one thought so at the time).
The Blazers are set to decline in the West. Does Stotts take the blame? Can Stotts be the difference in keeping them for dipping? Not sure the answer to either of those questions. If they start badly he could be out of there in a hurry; since I don't see them making the playoffs, I think he could be out by next summer.
4th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)
Vogel got his extension last month, an acknowledgement that the horrific season the Pacers are about to endure is not Vogel's fault. Good for him, I think its a good move for the Pacers to punt this season and come back with a healthy Paul George in 2015.
I think the Raptors will have a good year, Casey will get Coach of the Year consideration.
McHale is another one of those on everyone's short list for first coach fired and again I think I agree. He's had enough time, enough big stars, enough role players, enough roster turnover to show that he knows what he's doing and indeed I think he's shown he doesn't. Unless the Rockets go deep in the playoffs (possible), I think McHale is out by the start of next season--and sooner if things go horribly wrong during the regular season.
5th year coaches: Tom Thibodeau (Bulls), Monte Williams (Pelicans)
Thibs is untouchable. And if he does get fired, he'll have another job by the end of the day.
Williams is another hot seat favorite but I do not agree: if Williams can get the Pelicans into the playoffs (I doubt it), then Williams gets an extension; if not, I think he does not shoulder the blame for the disastrous Eric Gordon signing and gets an extension anyway. Far from being on the hot seat, I think he's cementing his place in New Orleans.
Veteran coaches: Scott Brooks (Thunder), Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)
Pop, Spo and Carlisle are safe for the foreseeable future. I think they'll all have good years, get Coach of the Year consideration.
Brooks, on the other hand, will be fighting for respect all year long. I think the Thunder will be way down from the last coupla years and it'll lead to one of two scenarios: either Brooks gets blamed for everything and unceremoniously dumped or management doubles down on Brooks and he gets a big raise. Honestly I go 50/50 on either scenario but I'm increasingly certain one of those will come to pass.
So who wins Coach of the Year? I'll take Doc Rivers. I think Clippers dominate the regular season, highlights, victories, much love and praise. I think Dwayne Casey comes in second. Spoelstra, Wittman, Thibodeau get votes from the East; Carlisle, Popovich, Kerr and Hornacek get votes in the West.
And who gets fired? I say Vaughn, McHale, Stotts and Malone all gone by the end of the year. Brooks could go either way no matter what happens.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
NBA: Rookie of the Year
The ROY pool seems to be about 50 guys:
23 rookies have already debuted (*): (2011 draft) Nikola Mirotic, Bojan Bogdanovich, (2012) Kostas Papanicklaou, (2013) Nerlens Noel and (2014) Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Nik Stauskas, Doug McDermott, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, KJ McDaniels, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Shabazz Napier, Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Tyler Ennis, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cleanthony Early, Zach Lavine, Cameron Bairstow.
I came up with 14 more I expect to see this year: Joel Embiid (maybe), Noah Vonleh, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Mitch McGary, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant, Nick Johnson.
Throw in 12 more off my radar, maybe a foreign draftee appears on American shores, maybe an undrafted free agent breaks through and gets some PT, and we'll round the number of ROY candidates to 50 guys.
I think a good measure of a rookie season is minutes per game (MPG): how much did the team rely on this rookie to contribute? You'd like to maximize that contribution (points, assists, PER, defensive efficiency, eye test) but if the team still has faith in a guy despite a so-so statistical year (a la Ben McLemore (Kings) last year), I think that carries weight. MPG as opposed to simple minutes because injuries and chemistry might limit playing time for stretches at a time.
I think the order for rookie MPG will be: Nerlens Noel, Jabari Parker, Elfrid Payton, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovich, Jusuf Nurkic, Dante Exum, McDermott/Mirotic. I'll take Noel and Payton to split ROY.
While those other guys are toiling away trying to find themselves on teams in flux, Noel and Payton have the best chance to be themselves right away. I think they'll both be pretty good players on crappy teams. All they have to do is play basketball and get better.
Dark horse possibilities: Bogdanovich and Nurkic will get time, opportunity and low expectations in their lineups too. Nurkic looks like the closest thing to Marvel comics in the flesh and Bogdanovich might be the bright spot on a dreary Nets team.
Exum is a wild card. He's got a lot of players ahead of him but he'll get his minutes. 50/50 whether he can make the most of his chances (and ditto the other 7 guys in the Jazz rotation).
Mirotic and McDermott will compete for minutes, focus, opportunities, and votes for ROY though I think they both have the potential to be good at the same time.
Parker will get minutes, he'll get focus, low expectations and Greek Freak's 2nd year maturation, I think he'll be good and exciting but I think the Bucks still don't win so much so while he'll get votes and respect and perhaps lead in MPG, I don't think he ends up having the best year among the rookies.
Wiggins, Smart, Gordon, will get plenty of time and opportunity but each team is a work in progress and so are they. Their upside is high but they could easily get vanished in the shuffle of a lot of players looking for playing time. I think they each have good years, promising years and potentially great years I suppose, but I don't think they'll be best among rookies.
Of the rest the two that intrigue me most are Cleanthony Early and Nick Johnson. As a college basketball fan I thought Early was pretty special, the dude just knew what to do with the ball, I think that skill translates to the big leagues. Johnson could fill the void of Jeremy Lin (a player I think the Rockets will miss more than they realize), a decent spunky PG off the bench that the crowd loves.
The rest are just questions: Will Hood blend in with the rest of the Jazz youth movement? How will Stauskas work with McLemore? We gonna see Embiid this year? Will Napier get enough minutes to be relevant in Miami? Along with Wiggins, where does Lavine fit in in Minnesota? Tyler Ennis looks good but how much of him will we get to see this year? How much run are Vonleah and Hairston gonna get in Charlotte? With OKC's sudden shocking lack of depth, gotta figure McGary's gonna play, right?
Kostas Papanicklaou, KJ McDaniels, Jordan Clarkson, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Bairstow, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant all seem like regular rotation guys, some of them will get to play this year, not sure which ones yet.
(* 24 actually. I removed Julius Randle from ROY talk after he broke his leg in his 1st game. Damn shame, he had his rook year laid on a platter: plenty of opportunities, plenty of 4th quarter mop up time in front of the diehards at Staples, plenty of highlights, no pressure to be awesome, probably only a so-so year but one with promise, damn shame--he doesn't even get to come back next year for ROY like Nerlens, Blake Griffin, David Robinson!; fuckin' sucks really)
23 rookies have already debuted (*): (2011 draft) Nikola Mirotic, Bojan Bogdanovich, (2012) Kostas Papanicklaou, (2013) Nerlens Noel and (2014) Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Nik Stauskas, Doug McDermott, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, KJ McDaniels, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Shabazz Napier, Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Tyler Ennis, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cleanthony Early, Zach Lavine, Cameron Bairstow.
I came up with 14 more I expect to see this year: Joel Embiid (maybe), Noah Vonleh, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Mitch McGary, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant, Nick Johnson.
Throw in 12 more off my radar, maybe a foreign draftee appears on American shores, maybe an undrafted free agent breaks through and gets some PT, and we'll round the number of ROY candidates to 50 guys.
I think a good measure of a rookie season is minutes per game (MPG): how much did the team rely on this rookie to contribute? You'd like to maximize that contribution (points, assists, PER, defensive efficiency, eye test) but if the team still has faith in a guy despite a so-so statistical year (a la Ben McLemore (Kings) last year), I think that carries weight. MPG as opposed to simple minutes because injuries and chemistry might limit playing time for stretches at a time.
I think the order for rookie MPG will be: Nerlens Noel, Jabari Parker, Elfrid Payton, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovich, Jusuf Nurkic, Dante Exum, McDermott/Mirotic. I'll take Noel and Payton to split ROY.
While those other guys are toiling away trying to find themselves on teams in flux, Noel and Payton have the best chance to be themselves right away. I think they'll both be pretty good players on crappy teams. All they have to do is play basketball and get better.
Dark horse possibilities: Bogdanovich and Nurkic will get time, opportunity and low expectations in their lineups too. Nurkic looks like the closest thing to Marvel comics in the flesh and Bogdanovich might be the bright spot on a dreary Nets team.
Exum is a wild card. He's got a lot of players ahead of him but he'll get his minutes. 50/50 whether he can make the most of his chances (and ditto the other 7 guys in the Jazz rotation).
Mirotic and McDermott will compete for minutes, focus, opportunities, and votes for ROY though I think they both have the potential to be good at the same time.
Parker will get minutes, he'll get focus, low expectations and Greek Freak's 2nd year maturation, I think he'll be good and exciting but I think the Bucks still don't win so much so while he'll get votes and respect and perhaps lead in MPG, I don't think he ends up having the best year among the rookies.
Wiggins, Smart, Gordon, will get plenty of time and opportunity but each team is a work in progress and so are they. Their upside is high but they could easily get vanished in the shuffle of a lot of players looking for playing time. I think they each have good years, promising years and potentially great years I suppose, but I don't think they'll be best among rookies.
Of the rest the two that intrigue me most are Cleanthony Early and Nick Johnson. As a college basketball fan I thought Early was pretty special, the dude just knew what to do with the ball, I think that skill translates to the big leagues. Johnson could fill the void of Jeremy Lin (a player I think the Rockets will miss more than they realize), a decent spunky PG off the bench that the crowd loves.
The rest are just questions: Will Hood blend in with the rest of the Jazz youth movement? How will Stauskas work with McLemore? We gonna see Embiid this year? Will Napier get enough minutes to be relevant in Miami? Along with Wiggins, where does Lavine fit in in Minnesota? Tyler Ennis looks good but how much of him will we get to see this year? How much run are Vonleah and Hairston gonna get in Charlotte? With OKC's sudden shocking lack of depth, gotta figure McGary's gonna play, right?
Kostas Papanicklaou, KJ McDaniels, Jordan Clarkson, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Bairstow, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant all seem like regular rotation guys, some of them will get to play this year, not sure which ones yet.
(* 24 actually. I removed Julius Randle from ROY talk after he broke his leg in his 1st game. Damn shame, he had his rook year laid on a platter: plenty of opportunities, plenty of 4th quarter mop up time in front of the diehards at Staples, plenty of highlights, no pressure to be awesome, probably only a so-so year but one with promise, damn shame--he doesn't even get to come back next year for ROY like Nerlens, Blake Griffin, David Robinson!; fuckin' sucks really)
Friday, October 31, 2014
NBA: 2014-15 Regular Season Predictions
Raptors (58) Clippers (61)
Bulls (57) Spurs (60)
Cavs (56) Mavs (57)
Wizards (52) Warriors (56)
Hawks (46) Grizzlies (52)
Hornets (45) Suns (50)
Heat (43) Thunder (48)
Knicks (38) Rockets (45)
Nets (36) Blazers (44)
Pistons (35) Pelicans (39)
Bucks (34) Nuggets (38)
Magic (26) Jazz (30)
Celtics (24) Wolves (27)
Pacers (22) Kings (27)
Sixers (10) Lakers (22)
EAST
Raptors -- I think the Raptors hit the ground running this year (a la the Pacers last year). The Raptors didn't play their best basketball until the end of the year and they are returning the whole band with a bonus Lou Williams. I think they win early and challenge for the #1 seed all year.
Bulls -- The Bulls have a lot of question marks but last year showed that they can still win games with virtually nothing at all! So however this roster turns out I think the Bulls will still win most of their games. If they really come together, they can win it all; even if they don't come together I think they're top 4 in the East and dangerous in the playoffs.
Cavs -- This is a team built for the playoffs, don't think they're that concerned about seeding. They'll have their growing pains, Love and Kyrie have to adjust to each other, Thompson and Waiters have to figure out their place, Coach Blatt will have to figure out how NBA teams work (I think the game won't flummox him but how to handle an NBA roster is brand new territory). They'll be fine come playoff time but they might have some brutally awful moments this year. I can see the Wizards and Raptors ahead of them going into the playoffs.
Wizards -- They seem best equipped to handle whatever comes along, the seemingly perfect mix of veterans (Pierce, Nene, Butler, Miller), grizzled dirty work guys (Gortat, Blair, Humphries) and young pups on the way up (Wall, Beal, Porter). If they get the right amount of growth to go with the right amount of expected production, they might win a lot of games in the regular season (though the playoffs will be a brand new learning experience for this crew).
Hawks -- They made the playoffs last year without Al Horford or any expectation of success. Millsapp's in a contract year, Teague is ready to step forward, Horford wants a big return, Korver didn't make the FIBA squad (is this motivating him? I thought he should've made it). They've got a nice core in place (for the East) and they've even got some potential upside. I think they can find success quicker than the Hornets or Heat.
Hornets -- I like the buzz Charlotte is trying to build, nice for them. But I'm not sure they were actually any good last year and I'm not convinced they'll be much better. I don't think they get worse though so I figure 6th is about where they should be.
Heat -- An interesting team, a lot of re-adjusting going on but with plenty of upside. Chris Bosh is a possible MVP contender (long shot because the Heat will be so far from the top but if his output is truly impressive he'll get consideration). The Heat have enough vets to get by in the East, could be a surprisingly good team.
Knicks -- Well...somebody had to be 8th. I think the Nets are a mess, the Pistons aren't going to be consistent enough to win many games, the Bucks will be way better than last year and still nowhere near a playoff race, the Magic are interesting kids but not many wins, the Celtics could be dangerously bad, the Pacers had no offense before but now they've got even less than none, the Sixers don't even wanna win. So that leaves the Knicks. They've got Melo and a whole new outlook on the game of basketball but not much else. They could make deals during the season, I suppose, but really I think Melo and just about any supporting cast should make 8th in the East, so I'll bite.
WEST
Clippers -- I think the Clippers play balls out all year long and take the top spot in the West. I think the core is in place and they all have great years: Jordan gets a big money deal from LAC next summer, CP3 restores himself as the best PG in the league, I think Blake wins MVP and Doc wins Coach of the Year. I think they grind themselves down and falter in the playoffs but throughout the regular season I expect the Clippers to challenge the Spurs.
Spurs -- They've mastered the regular season but I think winning the championship is all they care about: part of winning the playoffs is letting the Clippers punch themselves out during the regular season. Even coming in 2nd will look like a masterstroke.
Mavericks -- This team is perhaps more susceptible to injuries than most but I think barring that, they've got a really good rotation that will win more games than they probably should. I think they're better than the Rockets and Thunder (two teams that have deviled them over the years), they can still handle the up-and-comers (Suns, Pelicans), they'll feast on the lowlier teams, Pau and Love have moved East, all the East stars stayed in the East, everything's coming up Mavericks! I don't think they go too deep in the playoffs but this regular season could be a monster for them.
Warriors -- I think they get it all worked out, the defense comes together a little bit more, Shaun Livingston does wonders off the bench, and they win many games. In the loaded West I'm not sure how deep they go in the playoffs, but I think night in/night out they'll be one of the better teams in the league.
Grizzlies -- The Grizz started so slow last year and still gashed their way into the playoffs. I expect they'll be better this year, challenge the Warriors for 5th in the West. This is one of those teams that know who they are, know they fit together, but could probably still use some more offense. A good team, a hard working, industrious team, they'll be a tough out for anyone.
Suns -- Some say this PG-heavy offense is too unorthodox but I disagree. I think they are a rhythm team and with an excess of quality PG's they keep humming game after game. They won't sneak up on people like they did last year but they also come in with a whole new kind of confidence than last year. I think the style catches on and they ride enough win streaks into the playoffs.
Thunder -- I swear I made this projection before Westbrook hurt his thumb but that only reinforces my worries about their precarious lack of depth. With Durant instead of Westbrook the Thunder still got W's but with Westbrook instead of Durant I'm not sure that's the case. They could really struggle until Xmas. Not unlike the Grizzlies last year, I can see them slowly building up as the season goes on, trying to make some noise in the playoffs (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round?).
Rockets -- Harden is MVP-capable and Howard is still one of the best at what he does. Not a fan of the supporting cast or the coach but I reckon they'll win enough to make the playoffs. And when they'll do, they could overachieve--look out Clippers!
Bulls (57) Spurs (60)
Cavs (56) Mavs (57)
Wizards (52) Warriors (56)
Hawks (46) Grizzlies (52)
Hornets (45) Suns (50)
Heat (43) Thunder (48)
Knicks (38) Rockets (45)
Nets (36) Blazers (44)
Pistons (35) Pelicans (39)
Bucks (34) Nuggets (38)
Magic (26) Jazz (30)
Celtics (24) Wolves (27)
Pacers (22) Kings (27)
Sixers (10) Lakers (22)
EAST
Raptors -- I think the Raptors hit the ground running this year (a la the Pacers last year). The Raptors didn't play their best basketball until the end of the year and they are returning the whole band with a bonus Lou Williams. I think they win early and challenge for the #1 seed all year.
Bulls -- The Bulls have a lot of question marks but last year showed that they can still win games with virtually nothing at all! So however this roster turns out I think the Bulls will still win most of their games. If they really come together, they can win it all; even if they don't come together I think they're top 4 in the East and dangerous in the playoffs.
Cavs -- This is a team built for the playoffs, don't think they're that concerned about seeding. They'll have their growing pains, Love and Kyrie have to adjust to each other, Thompson and Waiters have to figure out their place, Coach Blatt will have to figure out how NBA teams work (I think the game won't flummox him but how to handle an NBA roster is brand new territory). They'll be fine come playoff time but they might have some brutally awful moments this year. I can see the Wizards and Raptors ahead of them going into the playoffs.
Wizards -- They seem best equipped to handle whatever comes along, the seemingly perfect mix of veterans (Pierce, Nene, Butler, Miller), grizzled dirty work guys (Gortat, Blair, Humphries) and young pups on the way up (Wall, Beal, Porter). If they get the right amount of growth to go with the right amount of expected production, they might win a lot of games in the regular season (though the playoffs will be a brand new learning experience for this crew).
Hawks -- They made the playoffs last year without Al Horford or any expectation of success. Millsapp's in a contract year, Teague is ready to step forward, Horford wants a big return, Korver didn't make the FIBA squad (is this motivating him? I thought he should've made it). They've got a nice core in place (for the East) and they've even got some potential upside. I think they can find success quicker than the Hornets or Heat.
Hornets -- I like the buzz Charlotte is trying to build, nice for them. But I'm not sure they were actually any good last year and I'm not convinced they'll be much better. I don't think they get worse though so I figure 6th is about where they should be.
Heat -- An interesting team, a lot of re-adjusting going on but with plenty of upside. Chris Bosh is a possible MVP contender (long shot because the Heat will be so far from the top but if his output is truly impressive he'll get consideration). The Heat have enough vets to get by in the East, could be a surprisingly good team.
Knicks -- Well...somebody had to be 8th. I think the Nets are a mess, the Pistons aren't going to be consistent enough to win many games, the Bucks will be way better than last year and still nowhere near a playoff race, the Magic are interesting kids but not many wins, the Celtics could be dangerously bad, the Pacers had no offense before but now they've got even less than none, the Sixers don't even wanna win. So that leaves the Knicks. They've got Melo and a whole new outlook on the game of basketball but not much else. They could make deals during the season, I suppose, but really I think Melo and just about any supporting cast should make 8th in the East, so I'll bite.
WEST
Clippers -- I think the Clippers play balls out all year long and take the top spot in the West. I think the core is in place and they all have great years: Jordan gets a big money deal from LAC next summer, CP3 restores himself as the best PG in the league, I think Blake wins MVP and Doc wins Coach of the Year. I think they grind themselves down and falter in the playoffs but throughout the regular season I expect the Clippers to challenge the Spurs.
Spurs -- They've mastered the regular season but I think winning the championship is all they care about: part of winning the playoffs is letting the Clippers punch themselves out during the regular season. Even coming in 2nd will look like a masterstroke.
Mavericks -- This team is perhaps more susceptible to injuries than most but I think barring that, they've got a really good rotation that will win more games than they probably should. I think they're better than the Rockets and Thunder (two teams that have deviled them over the years), they can still handle the up-and-comers (Suns, Pelicans), they'll feast on the lowlier teams, Pau and Love have moved East, all the East stars stayed in the East, everything's coming up Mavericks! I don't think they go too deep in the playoffs but this regular season could be a monster for them.
Warriors -- I think they get it all worked out, the defense comes together a little bit more, Shaun Livingston does wonders off the bench, and they win many games. In the loaded West I'm not sure how deep they go in the playoffs, but I think night in/night out they'll be one of the better teams in the league.
Grizzlies -- The Grizz started so slow last year and still gashed their way into the playoffs. I expect they'll be better this year, challenge the Warriors for 5th in the West. This is one of those teams that know who they are, know they fit together, but could probably still use some more offense. A good team, a hard working, industrious team, they'll be a tough out for anyone.
Suns -- Some say this PG-heavy offense is too unorthodox but I disagree. I think they are a rhythm team and with an excess of quality PG's they keep humming game after game. They won't sneak up on people like they did last year but they also come in with a whole new kind of confidence than last year. I think the style catches on and they ride enough win streaks into the playoffs.
Thunder -- I swear I made this projection before Westbrook hurt his thumb but that only reinforces my worries about their precarious lack of depth. With Durant instead of Westbrook the Thunder still got W's but with Westbrook instead of Durant I'm not sure that's the case. They could really struggle until Xmas. Not unlike the Grizzlies last year, I can see them slowly building up as the season goes on, trying to make some noise in the playoffs (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round?).
Rockets -- Harden is MVP-capable and Howard is still one of the best at what he does. Not a fan of the supporting cast or the coach but I reckon they'll win enough to make the playoffs. And when they'll do, they could overachieve--look out Clippers!
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
NBA: League Pass Power Rankings (pre-season) (part 1)
Lowe and Simmons have a piece up currently about their League Pass rankings. While I didn't particularly agree with their choices, I thought it a good idea to organize one's precious basketball watching time. I don't have a favorite team, I grew watching college b-ball (go Cats!). So I arrive relatively unbiased and rather than sucking up to one team like a groveling hooligan, I come to League Pass wanting only to see the finest basketball on the planet come playoff time. I also want to see who develops, which rosters come together, which players take a leap forward, which coaches get a better handle on the game which general managers make the smartest/luckiest moves within their organization. I want to find the next as much as I want to study the now. I don't want to watch the winners over and over or just the big stars. I'm more into the up-and-comers and the supporting players anyway. That means watching a lot of provincial basketball. I'm down for that.
So here's a League Pass Power Ranking by conference. I'm not suggesting which teams are best and worst just which are most entertaining to me right now. I'll update this ranking the first week of every month.
East
Bucks, Magic, Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, Hawks, Hornets, Pistons, Heat, Bulls, Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Celtics, Sixers
West
Suns, Pelicans, T-Wolves, Thunder, Mavs, Warriors, Jazz, Spurs, Kings, Nuggets, Clippers, Blazers, Grizzlies, Rockets, Lakers
I'll find new teams to fall into but for not I'll stick with last year's favorite, the Suns. Wonder how long they stay in my top spot.
NBA: League Pass Power Rankings (pre-season)(part 2)
Can't wait (1)
Suns -- Loved watching them play last year, Dragic was a maestro, Hornacek kept the rotations smooth, never seen such a collection of Most Improved/Best Comeback candidates on one roster. Bledsoe was magic, you could tell he was getting this NBA thing down but even when he was out, the Suns just kept humming. On good nights they'd catch some team slipping, spend the whole 2nd half just trying to get on Sportscenter. Damn. Bummed they didn't make the playoffs, they would've given the Spurs a better challenge than you think. I still like this team going forward, I think they'll miss Frye more than they realize but once they get their groove going, I think they'll be pretty good, make the playoffs and be one of the most exciting teams in the League.
Totally fascinated by (2-7)
Bucks -- This team has more cheap thrills than a traveling carnival. Curious to see if Jabari takes ROY (I suspect he will), if Greek Freak is indeed the most exciting player in the League, if Sanders can be promising again, if Henson can be something like the star I think he can be, if Brandon Knight can lead this team, if Mayo can get back into playing shape, if Dudley, Bayless and Marshall can contribute off the bench. And with Jason Kidd as the coach? Man, they've got a built-in wacky neighbor! This roster is not as bad as they were last year, they should improve just by walking on the court. But with the excitement of Jabari, the growth of Antetokounpo and just general maturation all around, I think they can be pretty good. I'm starting to see them sliding into the 8th spot in the East.
Magic -- They've got so many young assets to keep an eye on. I'm buying the hype on Payton, I'm curious to see Gordon, I think Olapdipo will increase his efficiency, I think Frye was a good pick up. They've got 3 guys going into free agency (Harris, Vucevic, O'Quinn), 3 more playing into their options (Harkless, Nicholson, Fournier), 1 cut from his rookie deal (Peyton Siva); that's a lot of hungry young players that will be bringing it every night. I think the coach might be the first to get fired, I'm mystified by the signings of Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour and with a team this young you don't expect them to be crisp in the 4th quarter against for-real professional ballers. So I doubt they'll win too many games or challenge for the 8th spot in the East, but they'll play hard erry night and some of these youngsters will emerge.
Pelicans -- Two words: Anthony Davis. One of the most exciting unique players of my lifetime and he's only getting better. I like the addition of Asik, and Anderson, Holiday and Evans make for a nice starting five. But bench depth is not so good with Eric Gordon swamping the salary cap and Austin Rivers just not living up to the hype. And the coach could be embattled early on. But if they can stay afloat I'd like to see the Pelicans makes some moves to upgrade the roster. If they lose badly it could get depressing; but if they win, they'll be one of the best teams to watch all year.
T-Wolves -- This is basically a brand new team: 2 rookies (Wiggins, Lavine), 3 rookies from last year that should've played more (Bennett, Dieng, Muhammad), 1 new trade piece (Young), 1 new free agent (Williams) and a C that was hurt most of last year. The landscape has changed considerably from just 6 months ago. Out is Love, and rumors are swirling around Budinger, Barea and Martin. This is Rubio's team now, there is no second option, he's in the diver's seat, it's hero time for Rubio. Now that he's got a bunch of new targets to assist, I think he'll do just fine, I think the team will be fun to watch and by the end of the year I bet they'll actually be pretty good. But early on I think they'll be terrible, slumping rookies, chemistry issues, trade rumors, veteran coach trying to hold it together, etc. But I bet after the all-star break they'll figure it out and come back sexy next year. No way they make the playoffs this year but watching them figure out what they've got should be kinda cool.
Jazz -- All about the youth movement, who's gonna blossom and who's getting shipped out. The Jazz aren't a prime destination for free agents and draft picks are generally better as trade bait than building blocks. They have to trade for their stars and by next summer they should have enough assets to make a run at a semi-star or two to mold into this core. Favors and Hayward would appear to be in the core (or the most valuable trade chips of all) and figure Exum has 1-2 years to figure it out. So between Kanter, Burke, Burks and Gobert, who stays in the core and who gets moved on? I like all these players, doubt they'll win many games, no idea the answer to the previous question but they'll play hard and these names will be fodder for next summer.
Kings -- Its gonna be fun to watch Cousins...do whatever he's gonna do! I reckon the King'll still suck, off the top of my head I have no idea who the Kings coach is, but Cousins will be a monster and FIBA got me hankering to see if ol' Rudy comes out. They'll be a trainwreck but they'll be a fun trainwreck.
Eastern playoff-seeding carousel (8-13)
Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, Hawks, Heat, Hornets -- I'll be in and out with these teams from beginning to end, I reckon. I think they're all gonna be good but I'm not sure how good or how long it'll take to get good because they've all gone through major changes since May (except the Raptors who are surprisingly unchanged). They each have their own drama but they'll be rubbing up against each other all year long. How they shake out will be cool to see.
Western curiosities (14-15)
Mavs, Warriors -- They'll both be good, I think better than last year. They'll score, they'll play tough games into the 4th quarter every night, they'll win games they were supposed to lose. But they're both sloppy, inconsistent, they're gonna lose games they ought to win. Fortunately, they'll be good to watch whether they're winning or losing.
Suns -- Loved watching them play last year, Dragic was a maestro, Hornacek kept the rotations smooth, never seen such a collection of Most Improved/Best Comeback candidates on one roster. Bledsoe was magic, you could tell he was getting this NBA thing down but even when he was out, the Suns just kept humming. On good nights they'd catch some team slipping, spend the whole 2nd half just trying to get on Sportscenter. Damn. Bummed they didn't make the playoffs, they would've given the Spurs a better challenge than you think. I still like this team going forward, I think they'll miss Frye more than they realize but once they get their groove going, I think they'll be pretty good, make the playoffs and be one of the most exciting teams in the League.
Totally fascinated by (2-7)
Bucks -- This team has more cheap thrills than a traveling carnival. Curious to see if Jabari takes ROY (I suspect he will), if Greek Freak is indeed the most exciting player in the League, if Sanders can be promising again, if Henson can be something like the star I think he can be, if Brandon Knight can lead this team, if Mayo can get back into playing shape, if Dudley, Bayless and Marshall can contribute off the bench. And with Jason Kidd as the coach? Man, they've got a built-in wacky neighbor! This roster is not as bad as they were last year, they should improve just by walking on the court. But with the excitement of Jabari, the growth of Antetokounpo and just general maturation all around, I think they can be pretty good. I'm starting to see them sliding into the 8th spot in the East.
Magic -- They've got so many young assets to keep an eye on. I'm buying the hype on Payton, I'm curious to see Gordon, I think Olapdipo will increase his efficiency, I think Frye was a good pick up. They've got 3 guys going into free agency (Harris, Vucevic, O'Quinn), 3 more playing into their options (Harkless, Nicholson, Fournier), 1 cut from his rookie deal (Peyton Siva); that's a lot of hungry young players that will be bringing it every night. I think the coach might be the first to get fired, I'm mystified by the signings of Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour and with a team this young you don't expect them to be crisp in the 4th quarter against for-real professional ballers. So I doubt they'll win too many games or challenge for the 8th spot in the East, but they'll play hard erry night and some of these youngsters will emerge.
Pelicans -- Two words: Anthony Davis. One of the most exciting unique players of my lifetime and he's only getting better. I like the addition of Asik, and Anderson, Holiday and Evans make for a nice starting five. But bench depth is not so good with Eric Gordon swamping the salary cap and Austin Rivers just not living up to the hype. And the coach could be embattled early on. But if they can stay afloat I'd like to see the Pelicans makes some moves to upgrade the roster. If they lose badly it could get depressing; but if they win, they'll be one of the best teams to watch all year.
T-Wolves -- This is basically a brand new team: 2 rookies (Wiggins, Lavine), 3 rookies from last year that should've played more (Bennett, Dieng, Muhammad), 1 new trade piece (Young), 1 new free agent (Williams) and a C that was hurt most of last year. The landscape has changed considerably from just 6 months ago. Out is Love, and rumors are swirling around Budinger, Barea and Martin. This is Rubio's team now, there is no second option, he's in the diver's seat, it's hero time for Rubio. Now that he's got a bunch of new targets to assist, I think he'll do just fine, I think the team will be fun to watch and by the end of the year I bet they'll actually be pretty good. But early on I think they'll be terrible, slumping rookies, chemistry issues, trade rumors, veteran coach trying to hold it together, etc. But I bet after the all-star break they'll figure it out and come back sexy next year. No way they make the playoffs this year but watching them figure out what they've got should be kinda cool.
Jazz -- All about the youth movement, who's gonna blossom and who's getting shipped out. The Jazz aren't a prime destination for free agents and draft picks are generally better as trade bait than building blocks. They have to trade for their stars and by next summer they should have enough assets to make a run at a semi-star or two to mold into this core. Favors and Hayward would appear to be in the core (or the most valuable trade chips of all) and figure Exum has 1-2 years to figure it out. So between Kanter, Burke, Burks and Gobert, who stays in the core and who gets moved on? I like all these players, doubt they'll win many games, no idea the answer to the previous question but they'll play hard and these names will be fodder for next summer.
Kings -- Its gonna be fun to watch Cousins...do whatever he's gonna do! I reckon the King'll still suck, off the top of my head I have no idea who the Kings coach is, but Cousins will be a monster and FIBA got me hankering to see if ol' Rudy comes out. They'll be a trainwreck but they'll be a fun trainwreck.
Eastern playoff-seeding carousel (8-13)
Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, Hawks, Heat, Hornets -- I'll be in and out with these teams from beginning to end, I reckon. I think they're all gonna be good but I'm not sure how good or how long it'll take to get good because they've all gone through major changes since May (except the Raptors who are surprisingly unchanged). They each have their own drama but they'll be rubbing up against each other all year long. How they shake out will be cool to see.
Western curiosities (14-15)
Mavs, Warriors -- They'll both be good, I think better than last year. They'll score, they'll play tough games into the 4th quarter every night, they'll win games they were supposed to lose. But they're both sloppy, inconsistent, they're gonna lose games they ought to win. Fortunately, they'll be good to watch whether they're winning or losing.
NBA: League Pass Power Ranking (pre-season)(part 3)
The
Western Stand-bys (16-18)
Thunder, Spurs, Clippers -- For these squads it’s all about injuries and not much else. Some nights it’s cool to watch the good teams take over, but on others the relatively low stakes of the regular season make the whole thing seem routine, where even their brilliance is too casual for its own good. They’re gonna be good, they’re gonna be entertaining but they’re gonna be predictable for stretches too. I’ll pop in on them but I doubt I’ll watch a ton…until they play each other.
Thunder, Spurs, Clippers -- For these squads it’s all about injuries and not much else. Some nights it’s cool to watch the good teams take over, but on others the relatively low stakes of the regular season make the whole thing seem routine, where even their brilliance is too casual for its own good. They’re gonna be good, they’re gonna be entertaining but they’re gonna be predictable for stretches too. I’ll pop in on them but I doubt I’ll watch a ton…until they play each other.
Eastern
curiosities (19-20)
Knicks, Bulls -- I know who the Knicks and Bulls are: underachieving big brother, overachieving little brother; the Bulls are gonna prevail no matter how lovely or ugly it gets while the Knicks are slug their way into a losing fight 9 times out of 10. Both of these teams will get more interesting as the season goes on, win or lose. I am curious to see Cleanthony Early and Nicola Mirotic.
Knicks, Bulls -- I know who the Knicks and Bulls are: underachieving big brother, overachieving little brother; the Bulls are gonna prevail no matter how lovely or ugly it gets while the Knicks are slug their way into a losing fight 9 times out of 10. Both of these teams will get more interesting as the season goes on, win or lose. I am curious to see Cleanthony Early and Nicola Mirotic.
Less
fascinated by (21-24)
Pistons, Nuggets, Blazers, Grizzlies -- I’m open to be into these teams, I’m just not seeing it right now. The Pistons will either be wildly better than last year…or they won’t; the Nuggets will have a home court advantage that will keep the relevant in the West and yet mask their actual competence on the court all year long; Blazers have Aldridge and Lillard but without any upgrade at all, I don’t see how they avoid sinking in the West; Grizzlies are fascinating in the playoffs when they’re putting the wood to the Clips or Thunder or Mavs or even the Spurs, but regular season they’re a snoozefest, no thanks.
Pistons, Nuggets, Blazers, Grizzlies -- I’m open to be into these teams, I’m just not seeing it right now. The Pistons will either be wildly better than last year…or they won’t; the Nuggets will have a home court advantage that will keep the relevant in the West and yet mask their actual competence on the court all year long; Blazers have Aldridge and Lillard but without any upgrade at all, I don’t see how they avoid sinking in the West; Grizzlies are fascinating in the playoffs when they’re putting the wood to the Clips or Thunder or Mavs or even the Spurs, but regular season they’re a snoozefest, no thanks.
90%
don’t care (25-28)
Nets -- They’re gonna be such a mess all year, only curious if they start winning, watching them lose sounds boring, I don’t think they’re in the playoff hunt at all. Joe Johnson is not terribly exciting to watch, Deron Williams is depressing and KG is just embarrassing. Next summer will be another dreary one in Brooklyn too. (Wacky prediction: Keep an eye on Bogdan Bogdanovich for ROY, he’ll get plenty of run, plenty of opportunities, no pressure to perform and if there is a silver lining to this team it’ll probably be him. In New York that might be good enough for ROY)
Nets -- They’re gonna be such a mess all year, only curious if they start winning, watching them lose sounds boring, I don’t think they’re in the playoff hunt at all. Joe Johnson is not terribly exciting to watch, Deron Williams is depressing and KG is just embarrassing. Next summer will be another dreary one in Brooklyn too. (Wacky prediction: Keep an eye on Bogdan Bogdanovich for ROY, he’ll get plenty of run, plenty of opportunities, no pressure to perform and if there is a silver lining to this team it’ll probably be him. In New York that might be good enough for ROY)
Pacers -- Tough to
watch a good team fall so quick and, shit, they were no fun to watch when they
were rolling! Man, can’t imagine how
sorry that offense is gonna be this year.
Unless PG makes a speedy recovery, I’m ignoring the Pacers til Draft
Day.
Rockets – Personal
bias: Harden is one of my least favorite players to watch in the game and
Howard has never been as much fun for me as for everyone else, the two flakiest
big stars in the league. The Rockets are
a blocky boring team and from time to time they’ll be wretched, I’ll pass. I think they’ll challenge for a playoff spot
so I’m sure I’ll end up watching some by the end of the year but only when
circumstances suggest I need to.
Celtics – Frankly I
think they’re going to be a grease fire this year and out of respect for Brad
Stevens and Marcus Smart (the sneaky ROY d’jour) I think I’ll avoid them. Rajon Rondo as tradebait isn’t as interesting
as it ought to be (personally, I think he gets stuck in Boston, then becomes a
UFA next summer). If they start to win,
maybe I’d watch but I don’t really see that happening, so they’re already part
of next year’s draft coverage for me.
99%
don’t care (29-30)
Sixers -- I wanna see Nerlens Noel and….not much else. I figure MCW has about 5 or 6 of those blow up number hanging games, I’ll catch the highlights. Otherwise there’s not gonna be much else to see. Compare this roster to last year’s Milwaukee Bucks team that won 15 games: the Sixers aren’t even remotely close to as good as that Bucks team. Think about that.
Sixers -- I wanna see Nerlens Noel and….not much else. I figure MCW has about 5 or 6 of those blow up number hanging games, I’ll catch the highlights. Otherwise there’s not gonna be much else to see. Compare this roster to last year’s Milwaukee Bucks team that won 15 games: the Sixers aren’t even remotely close to as good as that Bucks team. Think about that.
Lakers -- I wanna
see Randle but I don’t think he’ll do much this year. I’m not a Laker hater but this team looks
horrible and Kobe on a horrible team is a horrible thing to watch. I’m glad they’re on prime time, they won’t
interrupt my League Pass. Kobe’s
milestones will make the highlights and not much else I reckon.
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