I had a good sports watching day the other day.
FA Cup Final (Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa). Yeah, never felt like Aston was gonna score. Arsenal didn't exactly dominate the game but they were more dangerous team from beginning to end. (Man, that second goal, yowza!)
French Open Tennis. Azarenka (against Serena) choked away a break in the 2nd and another in the 3rd, can't say anything other than she blew it. Matches like those (when you're on the verge of winning and then Serena effortlessly surges back into the lead), must hurt worse than other losses: Azarenka not only has to live with choking away a winnable match in a Slam but the way Serena let Azarenka feel like she had a chance of winning, just to snap it back, is just cold-hearted and hurtful. Serena Williams is probably my all-time least favorite athlete: I think she's an obnoxious snob on the court and her rudeness to her opponents is all the more egregious because she's clearly better than anyone else that has played in the last 15 years! When she wants to be the best she is clearly the best and has been pretty much since day one. And for her to be such a selfish, angry, demented little brat makes her the quintessential ugly American in my book. (Very rare for me to dis an athlete, the hero/villain dynamic in our entertainment culture rather bores me, that's not what I watch sports for, so I rarely pay attention enough to really dislike anyone; AJ Pierzynski and Bill Romanowski are the only other athletes I can think of that really struck me as awful people)
Rugby 7's. I used to cover rugby back in the day, so I have actually watched and paid attention to rugby in my lifetime, though not for long and not recently. Always liked the game, bummed Americans don't dig it a little more. Dude, we have minor league indoor football, can't we just get into rugby? Its a really cool game. And the way the NCAA plays it is much more fluid than 'real' rugby, much more like backyard football. 'Real' rugby is slower, chippier, more intense, the scrums are Road Warrior-like affairs, and pro rugby players are badass dudes, they've been beat up and stuff, they are not 'studio tough'. So watching these clean cut college kids with spiffy clean jerseys was fun, a bite-sized morsel of sugary rugby rather than a hearty meal of the real thing. I really do like rugby and I'd like to see USA get more competitive in it (its a college sport here, surely we're producing plenty of rugby players) and I'd like to see Americans embrace it more fully. The Rugby 7's is not great stuff but its pretty good stuff and that ain't bad.
Alvin Gentry to the Pelicans. I think Gentry is (or was until Saturday) the best coach in the world not coaching in the NBA. Steve Nash had his best years under Gentry, I think he can be a great coach with the right talent. Personally, I thought he was the best candidate for the Cavs job (if David Blatt should happen to get shivved during the post-game shower), but I guess Gentry wanted to lock up the gig as Anthony Davis's mentor rather than wait for the courtly intrigue to play itself out. Good move for the Pelicans, I think it'll be a good move for Gentry, too. (*sigh* Now Calipari is the only guy that can replace Blatt)
NHL Western Conference Finals (Blackhawks 5-2 Ducks). The Ducks didn't have a single slice of luck in the whole match. Reminded me of watching the Clippers game 7 against the Rockets: no lucky breaks, nothing to build on, felt like they'd lost before they even walked in the arena. The Blackhawks scored early and kept it on the Ducks all the way. Very tight game, thought the Ducks goalie played about as well as he could have (he got no help from that defense in front of him). The Ducks controlled the puck well enough but they're scoring chances (til the 3rd period) were never so scary. The Blackhawks pressed their chances and were able to keep the Ducks backpedaling the whole way.
Way to go, NBC Sports! I know where to go for my Tour de France fix.
Sunday, May 31, 2015
Saturday, May 30, 2015
Coaching Moves
Scott Skiles is the new coach in Orlando. Skiles is a legendary hardass but he's a well-respected man in the business, nails as a player and as a coach. The Magic are a young team, they probably need discipline and cohesion from the top down right now. Skiles seems like a pretty good choice to me. If he's successful tightening up this squad for the next 2-3 years, then the Magic could move on to a players' coach for the playoff push. Don't seem right but that's the business and Skiles knows exactly how it works; he's working the same side of the paradigm as the Magic management right now. The next phase is gonna be tough, they need a tough guy and they got one.
Thibodeau is out, Fred Hoiberg is in in Chicago. The rumors on this have been swirling for more than a year, right? It seems like Thibs was 'out' in Chicago numerous times in the last few years. Well, it finally happened. Is Hoiberg worth all this hubbub? I got no idea. Guess we'll find out. The Bulls are a conundrum: they spend roughly half the time underachieving and the other half overachieving. Good luck, Fred.
Where does Thibs go? Apparently not New Orleans or Denver (and definitely not Orlando). The rumor going around lately is that some NBA coach is going to get fired any minute--and no one sees it coming. Lakers? (Scott's just a well-paid caretaker, we all know that) Suns? (Hornacek seems to be doing a good job but Phoenix sounds like a treacherous place, never know what management has up its sleeve) Nets? (I see no reason to fire the coach...but I see no reason not to) Do any of these locales think they can lure Coach Thibs right now? Yeah, I reckon the Lakers could afford to quadruple up Byron's severance package just to overpay the next guy and Thibs is good enough to be there so the marriage doesn't seem farfetched.
Thibodeau is out, Fred Hoiberg is in in Chicago. The rumors on this have been swirling for more than a year, right? It seems like Thibs was 'out' in Chicago numerous times in the last few years. Well, it finally happened. Is Hoiberg worth all this hubbub? I got no idea. Guess we'll find out. The Bulls are a conundrum: they spend roughly half the time underachieving and the other half overachieving. Good luck, Fred.
Where does Thibs go? Apparently not New Orleans or Denver (and definitely not Orlando). The rumor going around lately is that some NBA coach is going to get fired any minute--and no one sees it coming. Lakers? (Scott's just a well-paid caretaker, we all know that) Suns? (Hornacek seems to be doing a good job but Phoenix sounds like a treacherous place, never know what management has up its sleeve) Nets? (I see no reason to fire the coach...but I see no reason not to) Do any of these locales think they can lure Coach Thibs right now? Yeah, I reckon the Lakers could afford to quadruple up Byron's severance package just to overpay the next guy and Thibs is good enough to be there so the marriage doesn't seem farfetched.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
The #14 Pick
The Thunder hold the #14 pick. Trade it? If its a piece of a really good deal (shipping out Novak to bring in JR Smith or something), then the pick could move. But that's not gonna happen and they're looking to add to the roster here rather than dump out (and again at #48). I really wanted to put PF Portis on OKC: something of a project but I think he could be really good in the right environment, (one year of tutelage from Kevin Durant would do this guy a world of good). But looking over the Thunder roster, they need ball-handlers not more shooters, they need fewer turnovers and more steals. So I think I'll give in to the conventional wisdom: Thunder take PG Payne.
Next year for the Thunder is all about one thing: health. If Durant and Westbrook and the gang are healthy, they're gonna play many many minutes and Mr. #14 pick is barely gonna see the floor; but if the big guys are hurt, then Mr. #14 is gonna get thrown in there. In case of emergency, I'd rather have a spunky PG than a lumbering PF project. Don't get me wrong: I think Portis can be really good but his maturation will take time whereas a guy like PG Payne already is what he is, so at least you feel like you can play him right away. The Thunder are lousy with scoring options, they need sure-handed-ness to minimize turnovers. I also liked PG Grant: he's a senior, little older, more seasoned, could be better sooner. And though he is graded pretty far behind Payne and Grant, I can see the Thunder reaching for Tyus Jones: some teams really respect going deep in the NCAA tourney (some don't), successful Duke players get reached for.
Thunder also have the #48 pick. They're likely looking to add size with the pick, which falls within a clump of C/PF types, a smattering of foreign players mixed with a few NCAA kids. I suspect OKC will aim for a NCAA player ready to play now as opposed to a Euro player that needs to marinate. They're looking to add to the roster now, this is not a pick for the future.
Next year for the Thunder is all about one thing: health. If Durant and Westbrook and the gang are healthy, they're gonna play many many minutes and Mr. #14 pick is barely gonna see the floor; but if the big guys are hurt, then Mr. #14 is gonna get thrown in there. In case of emergency, I'd rather have a spunky PG than a lumbering PF project. Don't get me wrong: I think Portis can be really good but his maturation will take time whereas a guy like PG Payne already is what he is, so at least you feel like you can play him right away. The Thunder are lousy with scoring options, they need sure-handed-ness to minimize turnovers. I also liked PG Grant: he's a senior, little older, more seasoned, could be better sooner. And though he is graded pretty far behind Payne and Grant, I can see the Thunder reaching for Tyus Jones: some teams really respect going deep in the NCAA tourney (some don't), successful Duke players get reached for.
Thunder also have the #48 pick. They're likely looking to add size with the pick, which falls within a clump of C/PF types, a smattering of foreign players mixed with a few NCAA kids. I suspect OKC will aim for a NCAA player ready to play now as opposed to a Euro player that needs to marinate. They're looking to add to the roster now, this is not a pick for the future.
The #13 Pick
The Suns hold the #13 pick. The Suns seem to be going all-in on the all combo guard lineup so while they should probably be looking for defense, they are addicted to guard that score. A few mock drafts I've seen have SG Booker going to the Suns. But on my board I still have SG Johnson available. Crossroads: the Suns love their Kentucky guards (Knight, Bledsoe, Goodwin already) but how can they pass up the local Wildcat with the top ten talent? Johnson has to go here: he grades higher than Booker, he's already a local hero, he fits in just fine with the Sun attack. And no thought of tradingout: unless they can flip this for 2016 1st rounder (or two) then their chances of hitting a nice player in the low teens is probably just as good as whatever they could get back in a trade.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
The #12 Pick
The Jazz hold the #12 pick. This one may be my first 'no-brainer': C Kaminsky. I think Kaminsky fits everything they're looking for in a player and if he's still there at #12, the Jazz would be foolish to pass him up. Yes, on my board SF Johnson is still out there and the Jazz, needing depth at every position, couldn't be faulted for taking the best talent available. But I think Kaminsky's size, outside shooting, team spirit, maturity and lunch pail vibe fit all of Utah's needs.
(I've got other thoughts on what the Jazz could do on draft night but I think I'll return to them in a later post)
(I've got other thoughts on what the Jazz could do on draft night but I think I'll return to them in a later post)
The #11 Pick
The Pacers hold the #11 pick. This past season the Pacers got 1000 minutes from 12 different players (none of whom were Paul George) but 2000 minutes out of only 1 player (Solomon Hill). The Pacers just missed the playoffs due to a coached-up rotation. I'm a believer in Coach Vogel and the nucleus of George, West and Hibbert. They could use some size off the bench but the Pacers have been offense-deficient recently and any scoring at all is a must. I thought PG Stuckey was the most underrated player in the league last year, not sure if the Pacers will be able to keep him at a reasonable price.
I think they'd love to grab either Cauley-Stein or Lyles but I think they'll both be gone. If the Pacers are set on getting size, they could reach for C Kaminsky but I think they'd be better off trying to get a big with the #43 pick (C Johnson and a coupla foreign bigs should be available in the 2nd round). SF Johnson will still be around, graded as a top ten pick by most but I think they'll take SF Oubre instead. (Or: West and Hibbert opt out and the Pacers are in desperate need of size down low, in which case they may have to trade up to get a PF (but I don't think that happens))
I think they'd love to grab either Cauley-Stein or Lyles but I think they'll both be gone. If the Pacers are set on getting size, they could reach for C Kaminsky but I think they'd be better off trying to get a big with the #43 pick (C Johnson and a coupla foreign bigs should be available in the 2nd round). SF Johnson will still be around, graded as a top ten pick by most but I think they'll take SF Oubre instead. (Or: West and Hibbert opt out and the Pacers are in desperate need of size down low, in which case they may have to trade up to get a PF (but I don't think that happens))
The #10 Pick
The Heat have the #10 pick (the Sixers were just a ping pong ball away from snatching this pick). If for some reason SF Winslow or SG Hezonja slip, the Heat would grab either of them but they'll both be gone by this point. SF's Johnson and Oubre should still be available; getting younger in the scoring positions isn't a bad idea but the salary cap may already be put in that direction: Wade, Deng and Dragic still need to be paid (and Whiteside next summer) to join Bosh, McRoberts and Napier as the future core.
I think the Heat should take C Turner right here. Yeah, they just re-signed C Bosh to a 4 year deal and this year oversaw the emergence of C Whiteside but PF's Andersen and Haslem are both entering their final years and I think Turner gives good stability in the paint (and the salary cap) over the next coupla years. Might not provide much as a rookie but they could bring him along slowly (seems to be working in Phoenix with Alex Len) and since they won't have a draft pick next year, the development period is stretched. They could draft a scorer and groom him here but I think going for inside size is the better play long term.
I think the Heat should take C Turner right here. Yeah, they just re-signed C Bosh to a 4 year deal and this year oversaw the emergence of C Whiteside but PF's Andersen and Haslem are both entering their final years and I think Turner gives good stability in the paint (and the salary cap) over the next coupla years. Might not provide much as a rookie but they could bring him along slowly (seems to be working in Phoenix with Alex Len) and since they won't have a draft pick next year, the development period is stretched. They could draft a scorer and groom him here but I think going for inside size is the better play long term.
The #9 Pick
The Hornets have the #9 pick. The Hornets...ah man...they're a mess. They're a mess because they've missed in the draft and they've missed in free agency....other than that they've been great. Is this the draft they're gonna do right? I doubt it.
I think the Hornets should take PF Lyles. Good size, good rebounder, good handle for a big man, I think he'll score along the baseline in the pros. Not convinced he goes straight to the All-Star game, but he's a smart kid with good skills, I think he'll have to find his game at the next level but I think he's got a good chance at success and the Hornets should give him plenty of opportunity to develop. The Hornets need everything so they might go with SF Johnson, SF Oubre or C Turner, but I think Lyles gives them the most potential.
I think the Hornets should take PF Lyles. Good size, good rebounder, good handle for a big man, I think he'll score along the baseline in the pros. Not convinced he goes straight to the All-Star game, but he's a smart kid with good skills, I think he'll have to find his game at the next level but I think he's got a good chance at success and the Hornets should give him plenty of opportunity to develop. The Hornets need everything so they might go with SF Johnson, SF Oubre or C Turner, but I think Lyles gives them the most potential.
The #8 Pick
The Pistons have the #8 pick. What do they need? Wow, they could use Okafor. Okafor is exactly what they need to replace Monroe. But he'll be long gone by #8. I think the next best thing is PF Cauley-Stein and I think he'll still be there at #8.
Cauley-Stein is gonna be a defensive monster, helluva downlow rebounder (scary tandem with Drummond), not much offense (but then again Jennings and Reggie Jax never pass the ball anyway, so not a bad fit), not necessarily a natural born basketball player but he's an insane athlete with a nose for the ball; under the right tutelage he's got DPOY skills. Is Stan Van that guy? (Honestly, I dunno; I don't get what Stan Van is doing, maybe it'll work out, maybe it won't but I don't get it) Some mock drafts I've seen have the Pistons taking SF Johnson here but I think the Pistons look to be (at the moment) well-stocked in scoring SF (Tolliver, Butler, Martin). And as possessors of the #38 pick, they might be in range for some 2nd rd action at SG/SF: Petteway (Nebraska), Tokoto (UNC), White (Iowa) and a bevy of foreign players all look to be available there. Not a diss on Johnson but I am convinced Cauley-Stein, as one dimensional as he is, is gonna be really really good at his one dimension. The kind of Tyson Chandler-like talent that all teams could use. I think a defensive guy can adapt to the pros quicker than an offensive guy, which is why Cauley-Stein is my early pick for Rookie of the Year; I think he's gonna be a really good defender right away.
Cauley-Stein is gonna be a defensive monster, helluva downlow rebounder (scary tandem with Drummond), not much offense (but then again Jennings and Reggie Jax never pass the ball anyway, so not a bad fit), not necessarily a natural born basketball player but he's an insane athlete with a nose for the ball; under the right tutelage he's got DPOY skills. Is Stan Van that guy? (Honestly, I dunno; I don't get what Stan Van is doing, maybe it'll work out, maybe it won't but I don't get it) Some mock drafts I've seen have the Pistons taking SF Johnson here but I think the Pistons look to be (at the moment) well-stocked in scoring SF (Tolliver, Butler, Martin). And as possessors of the #38 pick, they might be in range for some 2nd rd action at SG/SF: Petteway (Nebraska), Tokoto (UNC), White (Iowa) and a bevy of foreign players all look to be available there. Not a diss on Johnson but I am convinced Cauley-Stein, as one dimensional as he is, is gonna be really really good at his one dimension. The kind of Tyson Chandler-like talent that all teams could use. I think a defensive guy can adapt to the pros quicker than an offensive guy, which is why Cauley-Stein is my early pick for Rookie of the Year; I think he's gonna be a really good defender right away.
The #7 Pick
The Nuggets hold the #7 pick. What do they need? The current roster is a good mix of long-term veterans, expiring contracts and up-and-coming youth...unfortunately the morale of the team is in a bad bad place. What they need is a coach that will get the most out of the roster they already have. Could the #7 pick net them Coach Thibodeau? Coach Kidd was traded to Milwaukee last year for two 2nd round picks so #7 overall seems a bit rich even for a coach everyone respects and admires. A new coach will hopefully make a difference but in one year, how much could even a great coach do? No matter who they end up getting at #7, its probably a prelude to next year's Nuggets lottery pick.
At the top of the roster is PG Lawson (2 yrs/$25.6m), Galinari (1 yr/$11.5m) and Faried (4 yrs/$52.2m). These are good players on good deals...but the Nuggets have to get rid of them. Lawson is unhappy, Galinari has never lived up to his potential and Faried is not the beloved player within the organization that it seems like he ought to be. Though I would try to make it work (they are good players on decent deals), trading all three looks to be a priority. If the Nuggets really had an interest in Okafor, Towns or Russell, they could make a nice package to move up in the draft. Could they interest the Lakers in Lawson and #7 to move up to #2? Could they interest the Knicks in Faried straight up for #4? Those don't seem unreasonable deals: the Lakers and Knicks want veterans not rookies and there isn't anyone in this draft that strikes me as an oh-my-god talent, I can see the Lakers and Knicks choosing the known commodities and letting the Nuggets handle player development duties.
Next on the Nuggets roster is a series of expiring deals: SF Chandler ($7.1m), PF Hickson ($5.6m), SG Foye ($3.2m), PG Nelson ($2.8m). These are all pieces that can be packaged to move up in the draft, as well. Again: the Nuggets have good players on reasonable contracts, seemingly they've done everything right in building this roster. But if the assembled players and coaches all hate each other, then the hard work is down the drain. A roster that looks competitive (or at least not a disaster) should be better than what the Nuggets have been lately. But, hey, the Bucks had the worst record in the league last year with a team that wasn't that bad and they juked into the playoffs (w/out Jabari), so maybe the Nuggets can improve greatly just by bringing everyone back.
The next three guys are still on rookie deals: PF Nurkic, C Lauvergne, SG Harris. I'd keep all three of these guys but if a great deal is on the table, then all three could be had. Jamaal Franklin and Erick Green (each under 2 yrs/$2m) are...I don't know who they are. They also possess the #57 pick but that's likely trade filler or reserved for future considerations.
How they draft will probably revolve around what trades they're able to make around draft day. If we assume that the Nuggets come back with this team fairly well intact than I suggest they'll draft SG Hezonja; SG Harris did not have a sparkling rookie campaign (but honestly not much sparkled in Denver last year), Hezonja would give them size on the wing and (hopefully) a reliable scorer; since everyone on this roster is available, bolstering the SG would give them more impetus to let go of Galinari or Chandler. I think a better choice might be PF Lyles to give them size down low (making Faried even more available) and still give them some wing scoring. They might have an eye on SF Johnson, as well, I think it probably depends on what deals they can make around draft day.
Nuggets have some pieces to work with: reasonably priced veteran PG (Lawson), budding superstar on friendly deal (Faried), expiring veteran filler-upper (Galinari), mid-level priced wing scorer (Chandler), underrated rebounder/role player (Hickson), couple more expirings, couple more tantalizing youngsters, and the #7 pick. The Nuggets are primed to make moves. We'll see who moves with them.
At the top of the roster is PG Lawson (2 yrs/$25.6m), Galinari (1 yr/$11.5m) and Faried (4 yrs/$52.2m). These are good players on good deals...but the Nuggets have to get rid of them. Lawson is unhappy, Galinari has never lived up to his potential and Faried is not the beloved player within the organization that it seems like he ought to be. Though I would try to make it work (they are good players on decent deals), trading all three looks to be a priority. If the Nuggets really had an interest in Okafor, Towns or Russell, they could make a nice package to move up in the draft. Could they interest the Lakers in Lawson and #7 to move up to #2? Could they interest the Knicks in Faried straight up for #4? Those don't seem unreasonable deals: the Lakers and Knicks want veterans not rookies and there isn't anyone in this draft that strikes me as an oh-my-god talent, I can see the Lakers and Knicks choosing the known commodities and letting the Nuggets handle player development duties.
Next on the Nuggets roster is a series of expiring deals: SF Chandler ($7.1m), PF Hickson ($5.6m), SG Foye ($3.2m), PG Nelson ($2.8m). These are all pieces that can be packaged to move up in the draft, as well. Again: the Nuggets have good players on reasonable contracts, seemingly they've done everything right in building this roster. But if the assembled players and coaches all hate each other, then the hard work is down the drain. A roster that looks competitive (or at least not a disaster) should be better than what the Nuggets have been lately. But, hey, the Bucks had the worst record in the league last year with a team that wasn't that bad and they juked into the playoffs (w/out Jabari), so maybe the Nuggets can improve greatly just by bringing everyone back.
The next three guys are still on rookie deals: PF Nurkic, C Lauvergne, SG Harris. I'd keep all three of these guys but if a great deal is on the table, then all three could be had. Jamaal Franklin and Erick Green (each under 2 yrs/$2m) are...I don't know who they are. They also possess the #57 pick but that's likely trade filler or reserved for future considerations.
How they draft will probably revolve around what trades they're able to make around draft day. If we assume that the Nuggets come back with this team fairly well intact than I suggest they'll draft SG Hezonja; SG Harris did not have a sparkling rookie campaign (but honestly not much sparkled in Denver last year), Hezonja would give them size on the wing and (hopefully) a reliable scorer; since everyone on this roster is available, bolstering the SG would give them more impetus to let go of Galinari or Chandler. I think a better choice might be PF Lyles to give them size down low (making Faried even more available) and still give them some wing scoring. They might have an eye on SF Johnson, as well, I think it probably depends on what deals they can make around draft day.
Nuggets have some pieces to work with: reasonably priced veteran PG (Lawson), budding superstar on friendly deal (Faried), expiring veteran filler-upper (Galinari), mid-level priced wing scorer (Chandler), underrated rebounder/role player (Hickson), couple more expirings, couple more tantalizing youngsters, and the #7 pick. The Nuggets are primed to make moves. We'll see who moves with them.
Monday, May 25, 2015
The #6 Pick
The Kings have the #6 pick. It looks to me like PG Mudiay will still be there at #6, I think the Kings take him.
So far the top 6 prospects seem set in stone though the order is still up in the air; I have them going: Okafor, Towns, Russell, Porzingas, Winslow, Mudiay. The #7-#11 prospects look to be Croatia SG Hezonja, Arizona SF Johnson, Texas C Turner, Kentucky PF's Lyles and Cauley-Stein. (After that comes another drop) Unless one of those guys jumps up and really starts impressing people or new faves emerge, it looks like the favorite six will be the top six chosen, in one order or another.
Could the Kings trade the pick? Well they could use Mudiay and they're not in any hurry to win, right? Unless they get a Jrue Holiday-style deal thrown at them, they should just go ahead and take the best available at #6. Could be Porzingas or Winslow or Mudiay (can't imagine Towns, Okafor, Russell still being there). I think Mudiay can play right now, they need a PG to grind in some minutes, might as well be a rookie. Porzingas might fit with Cousins (but maybe not), Winslow would lose touches to Gay, McLemore and Stauskus (getting lost in Sacramento is no lottery pick's dream). I think Mudiay is the best fit and I think he'll be available.
So far the top 6 prospects seem set in stone though the order is still up in the air; I have them going: Okafor, Towns, Russell, Porzingas, Winslow, Mudiay. The #7-#11 prospects look to be Croatia SG Hezonja, Arizona SF Johnson, Texas C Turner, Kentucky PF's Lyles and Cauley-Stein. (After that comes another drop) Unless one of those guys jumps up and really starts impressing people or new faves emerge, it looks like the favorite six will be the top six chosen, in one order or another.
Could the Kings trade the pick? Well they could use Mudiay and they're not in any hurry to win, right? Unless they get a Jrue Holiday-style deal thrown at them, they should just go ahead and take the best available at #6. Could be Porzingas or Winslow or Mudiay (can't imagine Towns, Okafor, Russell still being there). I think Mudiay can play right now, they need a PG to grind in some minutes, might as well be a rookie. Porzingas might fit with Cousins (but maybe not), Winslow would lose touches to Gay, McLemore and Stauskus (getting lost in Sacramento is no lottery pick's dream). I think Mudiay is the best fit and I think he'll be available.
The #5 Pick
Currently Orlando holds the #5 pick. They've got the pieces to be active this off-season, a youthful roster full of movable contracts, just a matter of figuring which players to build around. PG Payton, PG/SG Oladipo, SF Harris, PF Frye/Gordon, C Vucevic are the core going forward. Ben Gordon, Ridnour are the crafty veterans (or they're taking up the space where the crafty veterans would go) who each have one more year of bench minutes before moving on to wherever. Next season is about incorporating whoever this top five pick turns out to be and seeing where Harkless, Nicholson, Fournier, Dedmon (all in the last years of their deals) fit in for the future. This time next year, the Magic front office hopes to be putting the finishes touches on bringing in whichever free agents complement the core and holding on to the players that emerge this season. The Magic should be aiming for the playoffs this year, the #8 seed could be theirs if all of the maturation years mesh together.
My first thought was the Magic may covet Okafor and could put together a package (say, #5 pick, the #51 pick, Andrew Nicholson and a 2016 1st rounder) to move up. But looking over the roster, I think the Magic should stay where they are and scoop up Winslow. The top 3 picks seem pretty well set in stone: Towns, Okafor, Russell. Then the Knicks at #4 are a conundrum (Porzingas, Cauley-Stein, Turner seem most likely to me); also I feel like if someone trades up to #4, they're probably going for either Mudiay or Prozingas rather than Winston. Seems like Winslow will be there at #5. The Magic core is pretty well set, this pick is all about adding more young depth to bring along. I think Porzingas grades as a stretch-4 wing scorer (Gordon and Frye signed to multi-year deals); PG is also deep, so Mudiay (or Russell if he happens to drop) probably isn't the guy. I'd add wing scoring off the bench; if Winslow turns out to be the man, then Harkless, Fournier would be auditioning for other teams.
My first thought was the Magic may covet Okafor and could put together a package (say, #5 pick, the #51 pick, Andrew Nicholson and a 2016 1st rounder) to move up. But looking over the roster, I think the Magic should stay where they are and scoop up Winslow. The top 3 picks seem pretty well set in stone: Towns, Okafor, Russell. Then the Knicks at #4 are a conundrum (Porzingas, Cauley-Stein, Turner seem most likely to me); also I feel like if someone trades up to #4, they're probably going for either Mudiay or Prozingas rather than Winston. Seems like Winslow will be there at #5. The Magic core is pretty well set, this pick is all about adding more young depth to bring along. I think Porzingas grades as a stretch-4 wing scorer (Gordon and Frye signed to multi-year deals); PG is also deep, so Mudiay (or Russell if he happens to drop) probably isn't the guy. I'd add wing scoring off the bench; if Winslow turns out to be the man, then Harkless, Fournier would be auditioning for other teams.
Sunday, May 24, 2015
The #4 Pick
NYK is cursed with the most dangerous (and potentially worthless pick) in the whole draft (and its their only pick of the night). A #4 pick is not a #1 pick, a #4 pick is nice but nothing so sparkling in Phil Jax's eye. The Knicks need help all over the roster, what can they expect of a rookie outside of the top 3? Phil wants vets, he'll take rookies because they're cheap (and the Knicks need everything right now), but he'd rather have vets at every position. I think if they could get two get bodies, even if one is just a lower draft pick, they'd trade #4.
For next season the Knicks currently have 6 guys signed at $34.9m (not sure they've picked up the 3rd year rookie option on Shane Larkin, but I assume they will): PF Anthony, PG Calderon, PG Larkin, PG Hardaway, SF Early, PG/SG Galloway. The salary hit $80m this past season, expecting that number to be similar this year, it gives them plenty o' money to throw around this summer. They will definitely be heavy in the free agent market.
Okafor, Towns and Russell are likely to be gone by #4. The highest graded prospects are Mudiay, Winslow, Porzingas. Does Phil Jackson think Mudiay is a potential superstar? Phil wants to get a veteran team that can compete sooner rather than later in the East and a rookie PG probably ain't gonna get that done in the next year or two. Is Mudiay worth the wait? I'm not sure but I doubt Phil would think he is. Winslow could be a great mid-range scorer at the next level, part James Harden, part Harrison Barnes; but for the Knicks, he'd just be Melo's backup, which would leave no room for development. I like Winslow but he doesn't fit NYK. Porzingas offers the size down low the Knicks need and a rookie C can be a little more relied upon than a rookie PG. But he's European, man, he might be great but he could be brutally awful. Here are some foreigners in recent NYK history: Bargnani, Galinari, Calderon, Mozgov (all grown up and ready to carry Lebron's water for the next few years). If Phil thinks the kid can be a star then I can see him taking Porzingas; but unless Phil is really feeling this kid's potential, then I think he looks toward the NCAA.
They could reach for Croatian SG Hezonja (I doubt it) or Arizona SF Johnson (I doubt it). After that comes another flurry of big guys: Texas C Turner and Kentucky PF's Cauley-Stein, Lyles. If the Knicks can't trade the pick, I can see them grabbing one of those guys. I think Turner could become a nice down low scoring C and he's big and young and cheap, if Phil reaches for him perhaps it'll to be some kinda Eye of the Tiger mojo move. I'm telling y'all: Cauley-Stein has DPOY talent in him. Think young Tyson Chandler with Joakim Noah opportunism, Cauley-Stein is a supreme athlete. He won't score more 9ppg (and that will come in lumpy distributions) but he's gonna be a great rebounder, great downlow defender, great wing defender and he'll run the break and he'll score around the rim. Big star? I doubt it but a much needed rotation guy, the kinda guy every big star will want next to him. I think he's worth a top 5 pick though others are worried about his lack of offense. Lyles, on the other hand, should be a nice wing scorer, decent defender, decent rebounder. He's got pretty good skill with the ball (better than Towns, I'd say) and I think he'll be a pretty good scorer in the NBA. Might be a reach at #4 but NYK needs size more than anything.
Look, the Knicks don't want this pick. They don't want anyone that'll be there at #4. They might take Mudiay but I think Phil would rather sign Rondo or trade for Lawson; they might take Winslow but I'm telling you, man, putting him next to Melo would just be useless; they could take Porzingas for his trade value. But if they end up making a pick to keep, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach for either Turner, Lyles or Cauley-Stein. I think they'd rather trade for vets that can play now but I can see them trading down to get into a different range of prospect.
For next season the Knicks currently have 6 guys signed at $34.9m (not sure they've picked up the 3rd year rookie option on Shane Larkin, but I assume they will): PF Anthony, PG Calderon, PG Larkin, PG Hardaway, SF Early, PG/SG Galloway. The salary hit $80m this past season, expecting that number to be similar this year, it gives them plenty o' money to throw around this summer. They will definitely be heavy in the free agent market.
Okafor, Towns and Russell are likely to be gone by #4. The highest graded prospects are Mudiay, Winslow, Porzingas. Does Phil Jackson think Mudiay is a potential superstar? Phil wants to get a veteran team that can compete sooner rather than later in the East and a rookie PG probably ain't gonna get that done in the next year or two. Is Mudiay worth the wait? I'm not sure but I doubt Phil would think he is. Winslow could be a great mid-range scorer at the next level, part James Harden, part Harrison Barnes; but for the Knicks, he'd just be Melo's backup, which would leave no room for development. I like Winslow but he doesn't fit NYK. Porzingas offers the size down low the Knicks need and a rookie C can be a little more relied upon than a rookie PG. But he's European, man, he might be great but he could be brutally awful. Here are some foreigners in recent NYK history: Bargnani, Galinari, Calderon, Mozgov (all grown up and ready to carry Lebron's water for the next few years). If Phil thinks the kid can be a star then I can see him taking Porzingas; but unless Phil is really feeling this kid's potential, then I think he looks toward the NCAA.
They could reach for Croatian SG Hezonja (I doubt it) or Arizona SF Johnson (I doubt it). After that comes another flurry of big guys: Texas C Turner and Kentucky PF's Cauley-Stein, Lyles. If the Knicks can't trade the pick, I can see them grabbing one of those guys. I think Turner could become a nice down low scoring C and he's big and young and cheap, if Phil reaches for him perhaps it'll to be some kinda Eye of the Tiger mojo move. I'm telling y'all: Cauley-Stein has DPOY talent in him. Think young Tyson Chandler with Joakim Noah opportunism, Cauley-Stein is a supreme athlete. He won't score more 9ppg (and that will come in lumpy distributions) but he's gonna be a great rebounder, great downlow defender, great wing defender and he'll run the break and he'll score around the rim. Big star? I doubt it but a much needed rotation guy, the kinda guy every big star will want next to him. I think he's worth a top 5 pick though others are worried about his lack of offense. Lyles, on the other hand, should be a nice wing scorer, decent defender, decent rebounder. He's got pretty good skill with the ball (better than Towns, I'd say) and I think he'll be a pretty good scorer in the NBA. Might be a reach at #4 but NYK needs size more than anything.
Look, the Knicks don't want this pick. They don't want anyone that'll be there at #4. They might take Mudiay but I think Phil would rather sign Rondo or trade for Lawson; they might take Winslow but I'm telling you, man, putting him next to Melo would just be useless; they could take Porzingas for his trade value. But if they end up making a pick to keep, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach for either Turner, Lyles or Cauley-Stein. I think they'd rather trade for vets that can play now but I can see them trading down to get into a different range of prospect.
Friday, May 22, 2015
The #3 Pick
This one, too, is pretty easy: the Sixers will take Russell (or trade him for two draft picks). They've already got 3 young centers to groom, neither Towns nor Okafor fit the Sixers needs for the future and they traded off MCW, so now they need a new PG. Russell seems to be more dynamic than Mudiay but if the Wolves or Lakers suddenly developed a desire for Russell, I think the Sixers would take Mudiay instead. Would the Sixers trade the #3 pick? I think Russell is genuinely the guy they want but the Sixers definitely love their future draft picks so how about this scenario: if the Knicks offered #4 and their 2016 1st round pick unprotected to ensure they get Russell, the Sixers would snap up Mudiay and throw another 1st rounder on next year's pile without hesitation (hey, they ransomed Elfrid Payton last year, if they could ransom D'angelo Russell this year, that might set them up nicely for next year's ransom).
(Two years ago the top prospect (Noel) fell to the Sixers at #6, last year the top prospect (Embiid) fell to the Sixers at #3, wouldn't it be funny if Towns slipped and the Sixers ended up nabbing the top prospect three years in a row without ever having the #1 pick?)
The really interesting part of the Sixers draft night will be in the 2nd round, where they have five picks: #35, #37, #47, #58, #60. The Sixers scored SG McDaniels last year early in the 2nd round, so they appear to have a good eye for the borderline players. Or they could try to nab undervalued Euro players to stash for the future. Or they could facilitate some interesting trade possibilities (for example: the Warriors desperately need to get rid of David Lee without bringing anything back, could the Sixers get Lee for a coupla 2nd rounders or could they set up someone else to take him?). Personally I think it'd be cool if the Sixers drafted five more PG's to go with Russell and had an ultra-small ball battle royale at the Summer League. Ha! The Sixers are gonna be splashy on draft night.
(Two years ago the top prospect (Noel) fell to the Sixers at #6, last year the top prospect (Embiid) fell to the Sixers at #3, wouldn't it be funny if Towns slipped and the Sixers ended up nabbing the top prospect three years in a row without ever having the #1 pick?)
The really interesting part of the Sixers draft night will be in the 2nd round, where they have five picks: #35, #37, #47, #58, #60. The Sixers scored SG McDaniels last year early in the 2nd round, so they appear to have a good eye for the borderline players. Or they could try to nab undervalued Euro players to stash for the future. Or they could facilitate some interesting trade possibilities (for example: the Warriors desperately need to get rid of David Lee without bringing anything back, could the Sixers get Lee for a coupla 2nd rounders or could they set up someone else to take him?). Personally I think it'd be cool if the Sixers drafted five more PG's to go with Russell and had an ultra-small ball battle royale at the Summer League. Ha! The Sixers are gonna be splashy on draft night.
The #2 Pick
This one's easy: the Lakers will take either Towns or Okafor and be more than happy with either one (though I suspect they prefer Okafor). Obviously the Lakers love to wheel and deal, it is possible they move the pick before or after the draft but I doubt it. The Lakers build through free agency, for a #2 pick the trade value is virtually never as good as just keeping the pick.
Okafor and Randle (both lefties, no?) give them an interesting young nucleus for the post-Kobe period....though my gut tells me Winslow and Randle would be better.
Okafor and Randle (both lefties, no?) give them an interesting young nucleus for the post-Kobe period....though my gut tells me Winslow and Randle would be better.
Thursday, May 21, 2015
The #1 Pick
The Wolves are on the clock. They'll be rolling into next season with the last three #1 picks on their roster (and hoping the next one is more like the last one and less like the previous one). In this draft the top 6 prospects according to conventional wisdom are (in alphabetical order): Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingas, Russell, Towns, Winslow. The order in which these top 6 go is still up in the air (I think). Who do the Wolves prefer?
Next year's roster currently has 11 guys at $56.6m. Three largest contracts: PG Rubio ($12.3m next year, guaranteed $55m over the next 4 years), C Pekovic ($12.1m next year, $36m over the next 3 years); SG Martin ($7m next year, $7.3m player option the year after). Rubio and Pekovic are solid ballers when they're not hurt....but they're always hurt. The Wolves want Rubio to be the guy with PG LaVine off the bench and if he's healthy I think that's a solid platoon at PG (but not good enough to make worthwhile trade bait of Rubio). The Wolves have to get Pekovic to play to get value out of that contract; if he can't play then he gives nothing and no one else wants that contract, if he can play he's a solid C (better than Kendrick Perkins) and maybe a playoff team thinks they can afford him. Best case scenario in both cases is just good health. For Martin I'd say the best option is to try and move him; when they got him they needed a veteran scorer, a guy that wanted the ball in his hand, wanted to score. Now the Wolves are deep into their youth movement and Martin's contract (and game) are sclerotic to the new process at work. Just one of those things, no one's at fault, the times have simply changes, Martin would be better off elsewhere (Mavs? Wizards?).
The next two payroll spots go to the last two #1 picks: Bennett (going into his 4th year rookie option year) and Wiggins (the future, doesn't even matter what his contract is). Bennett will surely get another contract after his rookie deal runs out but he may not be the coveted free agent you would expect a #1 pick to be. This is basically his last year to shine out and rise above or roam the league in a Thomas Robinson-kinda way; physically gifted enough to be collecting an NBA paycheck (he's not Jan Vesely) but not good enough to make you think he could be a great player (upside: he's not Michael Beasley off the court; downside: he's not Michael Beasley on the court either). My guess is Bennett is KG's pet project for the next 12 months, Garnett and Flip got one year to figure out whether they cut bait on Bennett or unveil him as the next big star of the Western Conference. Wiggins, on the other hand, needs more touches, more plays, more focus, more coaching, more money, more everything. He is the future of Wolves basketball on and off the court, give him whatever he wants. And then give him some more.
Next is SF Budinger (1 year player option $5m). I'm not sure whether Budinger has exercised his option or not. This looks to be a busy summer of player movement not sure if that is good or bad for Budinger's options. Frankly I think 1 year/$5m is all I'd want to pay Budinger. So if he stays, fine for the Wolves, that's a decent deal; and if he moves on, the Wolves can feel good that one of their competitors has overburdened their salary cap. (Sun Tzu would've approved)
Then comes the rest of the youth movement: PG LaVine, SG Muhammad, PF Payne, C Dieng all still on rookie contracts. I think LaVine is badass in the making (reminds me of a better-scoring Carter-Williams), the next year should be all about giving him room to blossom. Muhammad has had flashes of nice moments but has yet to string together a single solid season, with good health I'd expect a good maturation season out of Muhammad. I was impressed at what I saw of Payne (if you lean back and squint I can see some PJ Brown in this guy, some Bo Outlaw, Theo Ratfliff), not much of a scorer but a big time disruptive defender and tough guy presence. Dieng has generally impressed me too, I think he could become a really solid scorer down low. If these guys all improve next year, then the Wolves will be pretty good.
PG Brown is set to make just under $1m next year. He is roster filler: if there are enough bodies then Brown becomes the perfect guy at the end of the bench; if they are too many bodies, Brown's deal can easily be absorbed and discarded.
There are 4 currently unsigned guys from 2015's roster: PF Garnett, SG Neal, C Hamilton, C Onuaku. What's KG gonna do? He's sucked bad for a coupla years now (gave the Nets a pretty good playoff run in 2014), he ought to retire and rumors are he'll smoothly enter the Wolves front office soon enough; but he's a hometown fave, got a player-coach kinda quality to him, might be the best roster filler in the whole league. There's no reason for the Wolves to give him more than $1m for 1 year (and he ought to give every penny of that to a children's hospital or something); his presence on the court can provide nothing for the Wolves except just his presence. An intangible like that is hard to value....but I wouldn't value it all that highly. So let's assume Garnett comes back for 1 reasonably-priced victory lap. I think Neal moves on (he's probably most useful to the Spurs, I have no idea if that matches up), his minutes look to be going elsewhere for the foreseeable future and I think the Wolves can do better in the MLE-level-veteran-presence area. Hamilton actually has pretty good numbers in his limited action and at his price point I'd say he's valuable as bench filler (and trade filler). Onuaku played this year on a "Hardship Exception" (never heard of it before, don't know what it is, but I notice the Wolves ended the season with a 16 man roster, clearly Onuaku was the extra man) and his very very very limited numbers are kinda scary: 12/14 FGA in 68 minutes over 6 games for $43k (K! When was the last time you saw a K in a pro athlete's salary?). I have no idea who he is or if he fits anything about anyone's roster, but the Wolves seem well-stocked at Center and since that #1 pick grades at C (hopefully C+, ha!), it is unlikely that Onuaku makes the cut.
They hold the draft rights to a Bjelica (Fenerbache) and Dubljevic (Valencia) and a coupla other Euros, but nothing in the numbers or relative gossip suggests that either are any more than trade bait.
They hold the #1, #31 #36 picks in the upcoming draft. (I'll come back to #1) The mock draft at NBADraft.net suggests that the prospects from #27-#34 are either PF or SG. They look to be pretty deep at PF but if either of the LSU guys Martin, Mickey are there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to the Wolves. Otherwise I say they'd go for an SG. #36 is a great place to scoop up potential 1st rounders that slip for some reason (never know, someone like RJ Hunter or Delon Wright maybe) but it'll probably end up going on a Euro player or as trade filler.
The current Wolves depth chart for 2016: PG Rubio, SG Wiggins, SF Muhammad, PF Payne, C Pekovic with PG LaVine, SG Martin, SF Budinger, PF Bennett, C Dieng off the bench. Add in #1 (C?), #31 (SG?), PF Garnett (or an MLE), C Hamilton, PG Brown and the Wolves got themselves a full complement.
Since they're expecting maturation years out of most of those guys, they're immediate future is hard to predict: some of these guys will have surprisingly good years, some will be surprisingly bad. Either way it's all gonna be a surprise. And of course the veterans are relying on being healthy, the most unpredictable thing in sports. So the Wolves are going to be unpredictable next year. Good teams are generally pretty predictable, the unpredictable teams are the ones that aren't very good. But, they've got trade bait and some cap space, they could be players this off-season.
Trading away Martin would be best (for team and player) and that could happen, he's not horrendously priced, he could be a good 2nd string option on a good team. I'd say Budinger opting out would be fine for the team, it would give them more cap space to stock the bench. Trading away Pekovic would be the dream scenario or at least getting a full year of productivity out of him but neither of those look realistic to me (next summer the words 'stretch provision' start getting thrown around). Unless a great trade opportunity arises, I think for the next year they have to commit to Bennett, Muhammad to see what they've got with those guys; ideally, they both mature nicely and become a regular part of the roster/rotation or they get dealt with next summer. Likewise with Rubio: if a great trade comes along they can move Rubio but unless a great trade appears, they need him to be healthy and playing.
So who do they draft #1? Personally I think Okafor will be better than Towns in general but for the Wolves specifically, I think Winslow is the best fit for them or maybe Russell. The Wolves have pretty good depth at C and in a small ball lineup they'll get C minutes out of Payne, Bennett and (yes, even) Garnett. So drafting another young C doesn't seem like the biggest need since they're still developing Dieng and they need to get minutes out of Pekovic. My gut is that Towns will be a bit like Dieng on offense (though from the block rather than the baseline) whereas Okafor will be more like Pekovic (a filler-upper in the middle). Strategically I'm not sure whether a sub should be a complement or a contrast to the starter. I think Okafor will be a better rebounder but I'm not sure either Towns or Okafor will be better than Dieng or Pekovic (when healthy), at least in the next 2-3 years. If the Wolves could trade Pekovic then drafting a C would be fine, but he's an albatross that needs playing time. Hate to say it but the Wolves picked a bad year to have the #1 pick: the top two guys just don't immediately fit with the program. For the Wolves to draft either Towns or Okafor, its just to groom them for either teams, it wouldn't be to build a cohesive plan around them.
They could go for a PG but they run into the exact same dilemmas as before: a) not sure whether Russell or Mudiay is the better fit and b) they really need their veteran (Rubio) to actually play. They need to give minutes to Rubio and I think LaVine is already the heir apparent to him, getting Russell or Mudiay would likely just stunt their growth.
They might as well go for scoring depth and for that reason I'd take Winslow. Also, I think Winslow is the top prospect anyway. I understand the adoration of Okafor and the promise of Russell but I think Winslow could be pretty good quickly and he could be great over time. I like Towns but his offensive game is a bit one-note and his defensive game is nice but nothing superb; I like Okafor, great size, good hands, should be a good rebounder, but could be a bit of statue on offense, might not be quick enough to be an effective scorer; Russell has flash, looks to be a good passer, good shooter, but I'm not overwhelmed that he'll be successful at the next level; Mudiay has the experience of playing pro ball, of living the day in-day out grind of it, that alone should give hope that his rookie season could be very productive; Porzingas is a typical European: maybe he'll be awesome, maybe he'll suck, I dunno; Winslow is gonna get his shot, get to the line, he's got a ways to go to be James Harden but that model is working pretty well right now, in the right environment with some luck I think Winslow could be pretty good early and really good eventually.
I know, I know...you don't wanna hear this: I'd trade the pick. Picking Winslow at #1 would be weird, they've got to take either Towns or Okafor. But they ought to go for Winslow at a later pick. I don't think the Lakers move up from #2 (like last year's Wiggins-Parker debate, I think the Lakers take either of Towns or Okafor that is there) and I don't think the Sixers move up from #3 (Sixers move UP? They want Russell, think they'd settle for Mudiay if they had to). The Knicks would love to move up from #4 but, man, they got nothing to trade. If the Wolves can figure out a pick swap with Orlando at #5 or Sacramento at #6 where they end up with Winslow and a bunch of other stuff, I'd say go for that. Not impossible, I guess the play is to figure out who wants Towns or Okafor enough to pay for it.
I got a feeling Okafor goes #1 to Minnesota (setting up a draft day trade).
Next year's roster currently has 11 guys at $56.6m. Three largest contracts: PG Rubio ($12.3m next year, guaranteed $55m over the next 4 years), C Pekovic ($12.1m next year, $36m over the next 3 years); SG Martin ($7m next year, $7.3m player option the year after). Rubio and Pekovic are solid ballers when they're not hurt....but they're always hurt. The Wolves want Rubio to be the guy with PG LaVine off the bench and if he's healthy I think that's a solid platoon at PG (but not good enough to make worthwhile trade bait of Rubio). The Wolves have to get Pekovic to play to get value out of that contract; if he can't play then he gives nothing and no one else wants that contract, if he can play he's a solid C (better than Kendrick Perkins) and maybe a playoff team thinks they can afford him. Best case scenario in both cases is just good health. For Martin I'd say the best option is to try and move him; when they got him they needed a veteran scorer, a guy that wanted the ball in his hand, wanted to score. Now the Wolves are deep into their youth movement and Martin's contract (and game) are sclerotic to the new process at work. Just one of those things, no one's at fault, the times have simply changes, Martin would be better off elsewhere (Mavs? Wizards?).
The next two payroll spots go to the last two #1 picks: Bennett (going into his 4th year rookie option year) and Wiggins (the future, doesn't even matter what his contract is). Bennett will surely get another contract after his rookie deal runs out but he may not be the coveted free agent you would expect a #1 pick to be. This is basically his last year to shine out and rise above or roam the league in a Thomas Robinson-kinda way; physically gifted enough to be collecting an NBA paycheck (he's not Jan Vesely) but not good enough to make you think he could be a great player (upside: he's not Michael Beasley off the court; downside: he's not Michael Beasley on the court either). My guess is Bennett is KG's pet project for the next 12 months, Garnett and Flip got one year to figure out whether they cut bait on Bennett or unveil him as the next big star of the Western Conference. Wiggins, on the other hand, needs more touches, more plays, more focus, more coaching, more money, more everything. He is the future of Wolves basketball on and off the court, give him whatever he wants. And then give him some more.
Next is SF Budinger (1 year player option $5m). I'm not sure whether Budinger has exercised his option or not. This looks to be a busy summer of player movement not sure if that is good or bad for Budinger's options. Frankly I think 1 year/$5m is all I'd want to pay Budinger. So if he stays, fine for the Wolves, that's a decent deal; and if he moves on, the Wolves can feel good that one of their competitors has overburdened their salary cap. (Sun Tzu would've approved)
Then comes the rest of the youth movement: PG LaVine, SG Muhammad, PF Payne, C Dieng all still on rookie contracts. I think LaVine is badass in the making (reminds me of a better-scoring Carter-Williams), the next year should be all about giving him room to blossom. Muhammad has had flashes of nice moments but has yet to string together a single solid season, with good health I'd expect a good maturation season out of Muhammad. I was impressed at what I saw of Payne (if you lean back and squint I can see some PJ Brown in this guy, some Bo Outlaw, Theo Ratfliff), not much of a scorer but a big time disruptive defender and tough guy presence. Dieng has generally impressed me too, I think he could become a really solid scorer down low. If these guys all improve next year, then the Wolves will be pretty good.
PG Brown is set to make just under $1m next year. He is roster filler: if there are enough bodies then Brown becomes the perfect guy at the end of the bench; if they are too many bodies, Brown's deal can easily be absorbed and discarded.
There are 4 currently unsigned guys from 2015's roster: PF Garnett, SG Neal, C Hamilton, C Onuaku. What's KG gonna do? He's sucked bad for a coupla years now (gave the Nets a pretty good playoff run in 2014), he ought to retire and rumors are he'll smoothly enter the Wolves front office soon enough; but he's a hometown fave, got a player-coach kinda quality to him, might be the best roster filler in the whole league. There's no reason for the Wolves to give him more than $1m for 1 year (and he ought to give every penny of that to a children's hospital or something); his presence on the court can provide nothing for the Wolves except just his presence. An intangible like that is hard to value....but I wouldn't value it all that highly. So let's assume Garnett comes back for 1 reasonably-priced victory lap. I think Neal moves on (he's probably most useful to the Spurs, I have no idea if that matches up), his minutes look to be going elsewhere for the foreseeable future and I think the Wolves can do better in the MLE-level-veteran-presence area. Hamilton actually has pretty good numbers in his limited action and at his price point I'd say he's valuable as bench filler (and trade filler). Onuaku played this year on a "Hardship Exception" (never heard of it before, don't know what it is, but I notice the Wolves ended the season with a 16 man roster, clearly Onuaku was the extra man) and his very very very limited numbers are kinda scary: 12/14 FGA in 68 minutes over 6 games for $43k (K! When was the last time you saw a K in a pro athlete's salary?). I have no idea who he is or if he fits anything about anyone's roster, but the Wolves seem well-stocked at Center and since that #1 pick grades at C (hopefully C+, ha!), it is unlikely that Onuaku makes the cut.
They hold the draft rights to a Bjelica (Fenerbache) and Dubljevic (Valencia) and a coupla other Euros, but nothing in the numbers or relative gossip suggests that either are any more than trade bait.
They hold the #1, #31 #36 picks in the upcoming draft. (I'll come back to #1) The mock draft at NBADraft.net suggests that the prospects from #27-#34 are either PF or SG. They look to be pretty deep at PF but if either of the LSU guys Martin, Mickey are there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to the Wolves. Otherwise I say they'd go for an SG. #36 is a great place to scoop up potential 1st rounders that slip for some reason (never know, someone like RJ Hunter or Delon Wright maybe) but it'll probably end up going on a Euro player or as trade filler.
The current Wolves depth chart for 2016: PG Rubio, SG Wiggins, SF Muhammad, PF Payne, C Pekovic with PG LaVine, SG Martin, SF Budinger, PF Bennett, C Dieng off the bench. Add in #1 (C?), #31 (SG?), PF Garnett (or an MLE), C Hamilton, PG Brown and the Wolves got themselves a full complement.
Since they're expecting maturation years out of most of those guys, they're immediate future is hard to predict: some of these guys will have surprisingly good years, some will be surprisingly bad. Either way it's all gonna be a surprise. And of course the veterans are relying on being healthy, the most unpredictable thing in sports. So the Wolves are going to be unpredictable next year. Good teams are generally pretty predictable, the unpredictable teams are the ones that aren't very good. But, they've got trade bait and some cap space, they could be players this off-season.
Trading away Martin would be best (for team and player) and that could happen, he's not horrendously priced, he could be a good 2nd string option on a good team. I'd say Budinger opting out would be fine for the team, it would give them more cap space to stock the bench. Trading away Pekovic would be the dream scenario or at least getting a full year of productivity out of him but neither of those look realistic to me (next summer the words 'stretch provision' start getting thrown around). Unless a great trade opportunity arises, I think for the next year they have to commit to Bennett, Muhammad to see what they've got with those guys; ideally, they both mature nicely and become a regular part of the roster/rotation or they get dealt with next summer. Likewise with Rubio: if a great trade comes along they can move Rubio but unless a great trade appears, they need him to be healthy and playing.
So who do they draft #1? Personally I think Okafor will be better than Towns in general but for the Wolves specifically, I think Winslow is the best fit for them or maybe Russell. The Wolves have pretty good depth at C and in a small ball lineup they'll get C minutes out of Payne, Bennett and (yes, even) Garnett. So drafting another young C doesn't seem like the biggest need since they're still developing Dieng and they need to get minutes out of Pekovic. My gut is that Towns will be a bit like Dieng on offense (though from the block rather than the baseline) whereas Okafor will be more like Pekovic (a filler-upper in the middle). Strategically I'm not sure whether a sub should be a complement or a contrast to the starter. I think Okafor will be a better rebounder but I'm not sure either Towns or Okafor will be better than Dieng or Pekovic (when healthy), at least in the next 2-3 years. If the Wolves could trade Pekovic then drafting a C would be fine, but he's an albatross that needs playing time. Hate to say it but the Wolves picked a bad year to have the #1 pick: the top two guys just don't immediately fit with the program. For the Wolves to draft either Towns or Okafor, its just to groom them for either teams, it wouldn't be to build a cohesive plan around them.
They could go for a PG but they run into the exact same dilemmas as before: a) not sure whether Russell or Mudiay is the better fit and b) they really need their veteran (Rubio) to actually play. They need to give minutes to Rubio and I think LaVine is already the heir apparent to him, getting Russell or Mudiay would likely just stunt their growth.
They might as well go for scoring depth and for that reason I'd take Winslow. Also, I think Winslow is the top prospect anyway. I understand the adoration of Okafor and the promise of Russell but I think Winslow could be pretty good quickly and he could be great over time. I like Towns but his offensive game is a bit one-note and his defensive game is nice but nothing superb; I like Okafor, great size, good hands, should be a good rebounder, but could be a bit of statue on offense, might not be quick enough to be an effective scorer; Russell has flash, looks to be a good passer, good shooter, but I'm not overwhelmed that he'll be successful at the next level; Mudiay has the experience of playing pro ball, of living the day in-day out grind of it, that alone should give hope that his rookie season could be very productive; Porzingas is a typical European: maybe he'll be awesome, maybe he'll suck, I dunno; Winslow is gonna get his shot, get to the line, he's got a ways to go to be James Harden but that model is working pretty well right now, in the right environment with some luck I think Winslow could be pretty good early and really good eventually.
I know, I know...you don't wanna hear this: I'd trade the pick. Picking Winslow at #1 would be weird, they've got to take either Towns or Okafor. But they ought to go for Winslow at a later pick. I don't think the Lakers move up from #2 (like last year's Wiggins-Parker debate, I think the Lakers take either of Towns or Okafor that is there) and I don't think the Sixers move up from #3 (Sixers move UP? They want Russell, think they'd settle for Mudiay if they had to). The Knicks would love to move up from #4 but, man, they got nothing to trade. If the Wolves can figure out a pick swap with Orlando at #5 or Sacramento at #6 where they end up with Winslow and a bunch of other stuff, I'd say go for that. Not impossible, I guess the play is to figure out who wants Towns or Okafor enough to pay for it.
I got a feeling Okafor goes #1 to Minnesota (setting up a draft day trade).
A Procedural Question
Can a team trade the protected portion of a previously traded pick?
For example, the Sixers held the Lakers 2015 1st round pick but it was top 5 protected (which came to pass: the Lakers got the 2nd pick overall which means their 2016 1st round pick goes to the Sixers). Now that the Lakers possess that pick they can trade it or they can trade the player drafted with that pick. But before the draft lottery had taken place, could the Lakers have traded (to, let's say, the Nuggets) their 2015 1st round pick #6-30 protected? Top 5: 2015 pick goes to the Nuggets, 2016 goes to the Sixers; not top 5: 2015 pick goes to the Sixers, 2016 reverts to the Nuggets. (That made sense to me...does that make sense to anyone else?)
A minor detail that I guess no one has noticed yet. I don't see why its not possible and I don't see why teams wouldn't employ that every once in a while. But I don't know if its actually possible to do.
For example, the Sixers held the Lakers 2015 1st round pick but it was top 5 protected (which came to pass: the Lakers got the 2nd pick overall which means their 2016 1st round pick goes to the Sixers). Now that the Lakers possess that pick they can trade it or they can trade the player drafted with that pick. But before the draft lottery had taken place, could the Lakers have traded (to, let's say, the Nuggets) their 2015 1st round pick #6-30 protected? Top 5: 2015 pick goes to the Nuggets, 2016 goes to the Sixers; not top 5: 2015 pick goes to the Sixers, 2016 reverts to the Nuggets. (That made sense to me...does that make sense to anyone else?)
A minor detail that I guess no one has noticed yet. I don't see why its not possible and I don't see why teams wouldn't employ that every once in a while. But I don't know if its actually possible to do.
Hack-a-Shaq
The term is 'Hack-a-Shaq' regardless of who is getting hacked. The term was invented to denote the strategy of purposely fouling a notoriously bad free throw shooter. While this strategy was not invented for Shaq, Shaq was the guy that was there when we invented the term. Before we invented the term, we had the strategy but no fundamental linguistic denotation to refer to the strategy. Before Shaq we didn't have the term, after Shaq we did. Reinventing the term (Hack-a-Howard or Hack-a-Deandre) is not necessary because we already have a term for that....and that term is 'Hack-a-Shaq'. The strategy can be re-appropriated to another player, but there is no need to re-appropriate the term to describe the strategy as there was when Shaq was the one getting hacked.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Look What I Wrote
...just one week ago:
I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA. Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them? I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling. (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)
Ha! Man, I loves me some reality. The miracle comeback, the catastrophic collapse...I was so close. Yes, the prediction was 100% wrong but...not really. I had the right picture, I just caught it from the wrong side of the mirror. Clippers done clipped when I felt like Blake in particular was ready to be the mega-star he's been preparing to be for so long now. (Hate to even entertain the thought but Blake is developing a Eric Lindros-nish about him? Nah, come on. He just balled out against the Spurs, that dude can play) I'm (still) in the camp that says Chris Paul can't win a championship: that guy just puts too much sweat into every moment of every game and the upward spiral of competition night after night is too much for him. I love his game and I'd love to see him go deeper in the playoffs but I just don't think his style can overcome the rigors of a championship run (when he morphs into the Jamal Crawford role, he'll still have some great years, the hired gun thing might be his best chance to net a ring).
Do the Clippers blow it up? Hell no. First off they can't (that is blowing it up isn't really even possible much less likely); secondly, they've still got a great core. They just need to coach up whoever they can get to play around them. We complain about Doc the GM but frankly Doc the Coach has not blown me away in his Clipper tenure. Making the most of the supporting cast has got to be the coach's job. Doc the GM has made some bonehead plays so far but Doc the Coach was supposed to bail him out. Big Baby Davis and Austin (Little Baby) Rivers had good moments in the playoffs but not that good, further down the bench brought nothing at all; Crawford is a big-game-every-4th-night-out kinda guy; Reddick sometimes falls into struggle mode where he just gets nothing done; Deandre does the things you need him to do but none of the things you want him to do; Barnes is most effective (I think) when the Clippers have a lead but generally not much help coming from behind. Where's CJ Wilcox? Couldn't make it work with Farmar or Raduljica? Or Nate Robinson? (Hey man, Nate is a crazy spinning top that makes weird things happen for 2-3 minute stretches, they mighta coulda used him in game 6) The coach has to make the most of these ingredients and Doc doesn't seem so impressive to me. Doc the GM is a bonehead, Doc the Coach is unimpressive, neither strikes me as a great argument for making drastic moves in the off-season.
If I'm not mistaken they do NOT have an MLE available to them this year (because they signed Hawes last year, that means they don't the MLE again until next year, right?). They posses NO draft picks this year. They've got a team option on Austin (Little Baby) Rivers but Doc the Dad emerges at this point and I just can't see them letting him go. Hawes could be trade bait considering Doc clearly doesn't like him and while I think that's a movable deal, I don't see it netting the Clippers a savior off the bench. So after they max Deandre (to my mind the right move in every way), they'll already be over the cap before they fill out their roster. Pretty well seems like the Clippers will look pretty much the same next year.
I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA. Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them? I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling. (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)
Ha! Man, I loves me some reality. The miracle comeback, the catastrophic collapse...I was so close. Yes, the prediction was 100% wrong but...not really. I had the right picture, I just caught it from the wrong side of the mirror. Clippers done clipped when I felt like Blake in particular was ready to be the mega-star he's been preparing to be for so long now. (Hate to even entertain the thought but Blake is developing a Eric Lindros-nish about him? Nah, come on. He just balled out against the Spurs, that dude can play) I'm (still) in the camp that says Chris Paul can't win a championship: that guy just puts too much sweat into every moment of every game and the upward spiral of competition night after night is too much for him. I love his game and I'd love to see him go deeper in the playoffs but I just don't think his style can overcome the rigors of a championship run (when he morphs into the Jamal Crawford role, he'll still have some great years, the hired gun thing might be his best chance to net a ring).
Do the Clippers blow it up? Hell no. First off they can't (that is blowing it up isn't really even possible much less likely); secondly, they've still got a great core. They just need to coach up whoever they can get to play around them. We complain about Doc the GM but frankly Doc the Coach has not blown me away in his Clipper tenure. Making the most of the supporting cast has got to be the coach's job. Doc the GM has made some bonehead plays so far but Doc the Coach was supposed to bail him out. Big Baby Davis and Austin (Little Baby) Rivers had good moments in the playoffs but not that good, further down the bench brought nothing at all; Crawford is a big-game-every-4th-night-out kinda guy; Reddick sometimes falls into struggle mode where he just gets nothing done; Deandre does the things you need him to do but none of the things you want him to do; Barnes is most effective (I think) when the Clippers have a lead but generally not much help coming from behind. Where's CJ Wilcox? Couldn't make it work with Farmar or Raduljica? Or Nate Robinson? (Hey man, Nate is a crazy spinning top that makes weird things happen for 2-3 minute stretches, they mighta coulda used him in game 6) The coach has to make the most of these ingredients and Doc doesn't seem so impressive to me. Doc the GM is a bonehead, Doc the Coach is unimpressive, neither strikes me as a great argument for making drastic moves in the off-season.
If I'm not mistaken they do NOT have an MLE available to them this year (because they signed Hawes last year, that means they don't the MLE again until next year, right?). They posses NO draft picks this year. They've got a team option on Austin (Little Baby) Rivers but Doc the Dad emerges at this point and I just can't see them letting him go. Hawes could be trade bait considering Doc clearly doesn't like him and while I think that's a movable deal, I don't see it netting the Clippers a savior off the bench. So after they max Deandre (to my mind the right move in every way), they'll already be over the cap before they fill out their roster. Pretty well seems like the Clippers will look pretty much the same next year.
Conference Finals Predictions
East
Cavs-Hawks
It seems like the general consensus is that the Cavs are going to steamroll the Hawks and that'll be that. Don't think I'm buying that. The Cavs just bested the Bulls by outlasting their sludgy, inside-banging Thibs-style game; the Hawks out-dueled the Wizards, a similar team that just didn't have the depth of scoring the Hawks possess. The Cavs look banged up but they're still scoring; the Hawks are rounding into shape, getting back to the team that dominated the East. So why is everyone taking the Cavs? Well, they got Lebron. Yeah, but even with Lebron I don't think this is a great match up for the Cavs. I was impressed with the Mozgov-Thompson tandem against the Bulls but Horford and Millsap will stretch them away from the basket, minimizing their impacts. JR Smith too played well against the Bulls but hard to imagine he could do more damage than Korver (who barely got going against the Wizards). Shumpert's defense will be neutralized against a Hawks team where everyone is looking to score. Kyrie being hurt was minimized against the slower inside-ier Bulls but against the Hawks he'll have to run and cut like his younger days and he doesn't look up to that at the moment. Lebron is obviously the X factor: if its classic Lebron, the Cavs can beat anybody; but anything short of that and I think the Hawks can outpace 'em. Korver isn't clicking and they're without Sefelosha but all in all the Hawks look as good as any Hawks team I ever saw. I'll take Hawks in 7.
West
Rockets-Warriors
The Rockets should not have made this far. I'm sorry but they just shouldn't have. Harden is a great scorer, Howard is balling right now, Brewer is bringing the hustle, I like Jones and Terry and Prigioni is playing out of his mind. But the Warriors on a bad day should still beat them by double digits on the road. Maybe not: the Grizzlies just proved that on a bad day the Warriors can be beaten. But I think the Warriors slagged their way right into that Grizzlie-style ball and that Rocket-style isn't as aggressive, intimidating or talented. The Warriors are the better team, they're playing well enough right now, Curry especially is really felling it. They can't be beat right now. I'll give the Rockets game 4 at home, but I'm expecting the Warriors in 5.
Cavs-Hawks
It seems like the general consensus is that the Cavs are going to steamroll the Hawks and that'll be that. Don't think I'm buying that. The Cavs just bested the Bulls by outlasting their sludgy, inside-banging Thibs-style game; the Hawks out-dueled the Wizards, a similar team that just didn't have the depth of scoring the Hawks possess. The Cavs look banged up but they're still scoring; the Hawks are rounding into shape, getting back to the team that dominated the East. So why is everyone taking the Cavs? Well, they got Lebron. Yeah, but even with Lebron I don't think this is a great match up for the Cavs. I was impressed with the Mozgov-Thompson tandem against the Bulls but Horford and Millsap will stretch them away from the basket, minimizing their impacts. JR Smith too played well against the Bulls but hard to imagine he could do more damage than Korver (who barely got going against the Wizards). Shumpert's defense will be neutralized against a Hawks team where everyone is looking to score. Kyrie being hurt was minimized against the slower inside-ier Bulls but against the Hawks he'll have to run and cut like his younger days and he doesn't look up to that at the moment. Lebron is obviously the X factor: if its classic Lebron, the Cavs can beat anybody; but anything short of that and I think the Hawks can outpace 'em. Korver isn't clicking and they're without Sefelosha but all in all the Hawks look as good as any Hawks team I ever saw. I'll take Hawks in 7.
West
Rockets-Warriors
The Rockets should not have made this far. I'm sorry but they just shouldn't have. Harden is a great scorer, Howard is balling right now, Brewer is bringing the hustle, I like Jones and Terry and Prigioni is playing out of his mind. But the Warriors on a bad day should still beat them by double digits on the road. Maybe not: the Grizzlies just proved that on a bad day the Warriors can be beaten. But I think the Warriors slagged their way right into that Grizzlie-style ball and that Rocket-style isn't as aggressive, intimidating or talented. The Warriors are the better team, they're playing well enough right now, Curry especially is really felling it. They can't be beat right now. I'll give the Rockets game 4 at home, but I'm expecting the Warriors in 5.
Attention Kentucky Fans
It was just reported that Calipari is interested in the Pelicans job. Does he want the Pelicans job? No. He's laying down the path to his exit. To another college? Nah, UCLA and Duke and anywhere else doesn't really have anything that he doesn't already have at UK, making any move like that would be more of a hassle than a step up. To the Pelicans? No, finished 8th in the West with a hamstrung roster, we all love Anthony Davis but so far his only championship was at Kentucky. To some other NBA job? 'Some other', no. Lakers (not this year), Nuggets (hell no), Raptors (no thanks), Magic (too much youth, no), Thunder (didn't lobby for that gig, did he?), Nets (heh-heh, I can't believe I actually typed that). No, not any NBA job but there is one. And he's using today's New Orleans tweet to make his case for Cleveland.
He would take the Cavs job (assuming Blatt is run out of town) if it was offered. Lebron has made the Eastern Conference Finals 8 of the last 10 years (5-2 so far in those games). With Kyrie (and Love or someone else) by his side, I expect Lebron to make 6 of the next 8 Eastern Conference Finals. That doesn't equal championships, mind you. But its pretty good: a lot of wins, a lot of post-season attention, a lot of money, a lot of glamor when you're winning in the pros. In pro basketball there are very few opportunities better than that Cavs gig. And David Blatt clearly doesn't have the juice to hang on there for long.
Is Calipari the best choice for that job? Not necessarily. I think Alvin Gentry gives Lebron and Kyrie all the love/respect they need and strategizes to maximize the supporting cast as well as anyone around these days. If Gentry could Warrior-ize the bottom of that roster, that could be the difference between a ring and no ring (or many rings and no ring). Personally, I don't think Calipari possesses that particular skill the way Gentry does. Lebron knows what the next few years hold and I'm sure it doesn't much matter who the coach is. If he wants a free and easy coach who's not gonna get in the way, he'll campaign for Calipari; but if he really wants to win those 2-3 games at the end of the year that have mostly eluded him over the years, Lebron will hold out for Gentry.
Would Calipari take that job? Yes. Yes, he would. I kinda thought Calipari would want Love on board (and that may be happening), but increasingly I think he'd take the job even without Love. It could be that this is all part of the dance to be the Team USA coach when Coach K finally moves on (a plum gig that would NOT interfere with his Wildcatly duties). Or maybe this is just his annual method of getting a raise from the taxpayers of Kentucky (money well spent IMHO). But I bet you he's on the short list to coach the Cavs next year (and I'll be his name is higher on the list than David Blatt).
Wildcat fans, prepare yourself now to join the Brad Stevens welcoming committee.
He would take the Cavs job (assuming Blatt is run out of town) if it was offered. Lebron has made the Eastern Conference Finals 8 of the last 10 years (5-2 so far in those games). With Kyrie (and Love or someone else) by his side, I expect Lebron to make 6 of the next 8 Eastern Conference Finals. That doesn't equal championships, mind you. But its pretty good: a lot of wins, a lot of post-season attention, a lot of money, a lot of glamor when you're winning in the pros. In pro basketball there are very few opportunities better than that Cavs gig. And David Blatt clearly doesn't have the juice to hang on there for long.
Is Calipari the best choice for that job? Not necessarily. I think Alvin Gentry gives Lebron and Kyrie all the love/respect they need and strategizes to maximize the supporting cast as well as anyone around these days. If Gentry could Warrior-ize the bottom of that roster, that could be the difference between a ring and no ring (or many rings and no ring). Personally, I don't think Calipari possesses that particular skill the way Gentry does. Lebron knows what the next few years hold and I'm sure it doesn't much matter who the coach is. If he wants a free and easy coach who's not gonna get in the way, he'll campaign for Calipari; but if he really wants to win those 2-3 games at the end of the year that have mostly eluded him over the years, Lebron will hold out for Gentry.
Would Calipari take that job? Yes. Yes, he would. I kinda thought Calipari would want Love on board (and that may be happening), but increasingly I think he'd take the job even without Love. It could be that this is all part of the dance to be the Team USA coach when Coach K finally moves on (a plum gig that would NOT interfere with his Wildcatly duties). Or maybe this is just his annual method of getting a raise from the taxpayers of Kentucky (money well spent IMHO). But I bet you he's on the short list to coach the Cavs next year (and I'll be his name is higher on the list than David Blatt).
Wildcat fans, prepare yourself now to join the Brad Stevens welcoming committee.
Sunday, May 17, 2015
Clippers-Rockets Game 7
My prediction was Clippers in 7. Here we are. Didn't think the series would look like it has so far but they're each 3-3 after 6 games and that's not a shock. The Rockets have the 2-game winning streak going, embarrassing the Clippers badly in game 6 and they're undoubtedly going to be the punters' fave pick this afternoon. But I'll stick with the Clippers (-2.5).
I think of it this way: the Clippers basically no-showed in games 2 and 5 and the 4th quarter of game 6. The rest of the time they were the superior team, with or without Chris Paul. When the Clippers show up and do their thing, I think they're the better team and squandering game 6 should be the wakeup call they need. (As for game 6: hey, man, they've prepared everything for stopping James Harden and when Harden never got up off the bench during the rally, the Clippers blinked and forgot there were other guys on the team. Classic frog-in-boiling water effect: they never developed the urgency because a Harden-less Rockets team seems like nothing to fear) Today, I expect Paul to handle his business down the stretch, Deandre to go toe to toe with Dwight and Griffin to be the monster he's grown into. I also expect Harden to do too much.
The Clippers have let the Rockets get further than they should have, wouldn't be a shock at all if the Rockets finished off the rally. But I believe (for whatever reason) that the Clippers ain't gonna clip today. Man, I'm looking forward to it.
I think of it this way: the Clippers basically no-showed in games 2 and 5 and the 4th quarter of game 6. The rest of the time they were the superior team, with or without Chris Paul. When the Clippers show up and do their thing, I think they're the better team and squandering game 6 should be the wakeup call they need. (As for game 6: hey, man, they've prepared everything for stopping James Harden and when Harden never got up off the bench during the rally, the Clippers blinked and forgot there were other guys on the team. Classic frog-in-boiling water effect: they never developed the urgency because a Harden-less Rockets team seems like nothing to fear) Today, I expect Paul to handle his business down the stretch, Deandre to go toe to toe with Dwight and Griffin to be the monster he's grown into. I also expect Harden to do too much.
The Clippers have let the Rockets get further than they should have, wouldn't be a shock at all if the Rockets finished off the rally. But I believe (for whatever reason) that the Clippers ain't gonna clip today. Man, I'm looking forward to it.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Pointless Trade Idea
Celtics get PF Faried (4 yrs $50m/$11.2 next year); Nuggets get PF Wallace (1 yr/$10.1m), SG Young ($1.7m next year) and the 16th pick in the upcoming draft.
Would the Nuggets dump Faried for an expiring contract and a coupla prospects? I wouldn't but the Nuggets seem eager to separate themselves from Faried, so all in all not a bad package. Not sure if Wallace can be bought out but if so I guess they would; that would turn the $50m they owe Faried into two decent prospects (Young could still be a nice SG, maybe at 16 they can get PF Harrell to replace Faried). Also, it would save them a coupla bucks to chase after one of the centers that will/may be available this summer (Stoudamire, Al Jefferson, pick-a-Lopez, Asik).
Would the Celtics flip Wallace, Young and a #16 pick for 4 years of Faried? I would. Wouldn't think twice about it. Putting Faried with Smart and Bradley would give the Celtics a wickedly opportunistic defense (though points might be hard to come by) for the next 3-4 years. And it would reconfigure their free agent needs: Kevin Love would be out, all eggs go in the Lamarcus Aldridge basket or perhaps a solid scoring SG or SF.
Great deal for the Celtics, so-so deal for the Nuggets. Not sure why the Nuggets are eager to get rid of Faried but if they're serious about moving him, an expiring contract and a draft pick is probably the best they can hope for.
Would the Nuggets dump Faried for an expiring contract and a coupla prospects? I wouldn't but the Nuggets seem eager to separate themselves from Faried, so all in all not a bad package. Not sure if Wallace can be bought out but if so I guess they would; that would turn the $50m they owe Faried into two decent prospects (Young could still be a nice SG, maybe at 16 they can get PF Harrell to replace Faried). Also, it would save them a coupla bucks to chase after one of the centers that will/may be available this summer (Stoudamire, Al Jefferson, pick-a-Lopez, Asik).
Would the Celtics flip Wallace, Young and a #16 pick for 4 years of Faried? I would. Wouldn't think twice about it. Putting Faried with Smart and Bradley would give the Celtics a wickedly opportunistic defense (though points might be hard to come by) for the next 3-4 years. And it would reconfigure their free agent needs: Kevin Love would be out, all eggs go in the Lamarcus Aldridge basket or perhaps a solid scoring SG or SF.
Great deal for the Celtics, so-so deal for the Nuggets. Not sure why the Nuggets are eager to get rid of Faried but if they're serious about moving him, an expiring contract and a draft pick is probably the best they can hope for.
A thought about the upcoming lottery selection day
Philly possesses the 1st round picks of the Lakers (top 5 protected) and the Heat (top 10 protected). Currently the Lakers sit at #4, the Heat at #10 and the Sixers would be left waiting til next year. But if the balls ping pong just right, the Sixers could end up with 3 of the top 11 picks.
I'd like to say its a game changer, that the Sixers could trade 2 of those picks and bring in a badass player (say, Al Horford) to go with Nerlens, Embiid, (presumably) D'Angelo Russell, and still have plenty of room to go grab another nice free agent (how would Monta Ellis look in a Sixer uni?). They'd still be a raggedy crew but they'd have a real scoring punch to go with their solid young D and, man, they might be looking good in the East next year. And next summer as the salary cap rises, they can bring over Dario Saric and pitch Kevin Durant a white picket fence dream home. Sounds good, don't it?
They won't do that though. They'll draft two European guys and tank next year trying to work another year of lottery. They fetishize draft picks but a glut of them is actually kinda dangerous, that future potential needs to be re-invested into current capital expenditure (re: on-court production) or else you'll have a bumper crop of rookies dying on the vine. If the Sixers end up with 3 lottery picks this year, then now is the time to spend money because 4 new rookies next year is not gonna get it done even in the East.
I'd like to say its a game changer, that the Sixers could trade 2 of those picks and bring in a badass player (say, Al Horford) to go with Nerlens, Embiid, (presumably) D'Angelo Russell, and still have plenty of room to go grab another nice free agent (how would Monta Ellis look in a Sixer uni?). They'd still be a raggedy crew but they'd have a real scoring punch to go with their solid young D and, man, they might be looking good in the East next year. And next summer as the salary cap rises, they can bring over Dario Saric and pitch Kevin Durant a white picket fence dream home. Sounds good, don't it?
They won't do that though. They'll draft two European guys and tank next year trying to work another year of lottery. They fetishize draft picks but a glut of them is actually kinda dangerous, that future potential needs to be re-invested into current capital expenditure (re: on-court production) or else you'll have a bumper crop of rookies dying on the vine. If the Sixers end up with 3 lottery picks this year, then now is the time to spend money because 4 new rookies next year is not gonna get it done even in the East.
New Orleans State of Mind
The Pelicans fired Monty Williams yesterday. Wouldn't have been a surprise 2 weeks ago but I kinda thought Williams had survived the rough times and was planning on coming back to the Pelican bench next year. Guess not. The firing of Williams is a mixed bag: he wasn't the problem but he probably wasn't the solution either. The roster was a mess this year and the typical injury toll of the NBA hit the Pelicans harder than most this season. All in all, I thought Williams did well to make the playoffs.
For now only 6 players are signed for next year at a total of $56.2m: SG Gordon (with a player option this summer), PG/SG Evans, PG Holiday, PF Anderson, PF Davis, SF Pondexter. That leaves only $12m to bring in 9 players (worth noting that they seem likely to go over the cap). They could perhaps bring back PG Cole, SG Babbitt, C AAjinca, C Withey as low cost bench-filling options. (I'd say Asik, Fredette, Cunningham, Douglas are off to new locations) They have only one pick in the upcoming draft: #56. Not a sexy pick, indeed not someone likely to be on the Pelican roster next fall (I'd look to Europe in hopes of finding talent for the 2016-17 campaign). They have the 2010 draft rights of Latavious Williams, whose shooting percentage in Spain has been eye-popping over the last coupla years; unfortunately nothing else about his game would suggest he is NBA-ready.
So how do the Pelicans get better next year? If everyone stays healthy, they should at least be in the running for #8 in the West. Beyond that, getting rid of Gordon is the only hope of flexibility.
Who's the coach next year? (Obligatory 1st question) Does Calipari want this job? No. Look, coaching Anthony Davis is a good career move for most basketball coaches but the roster is still a mess with little flexibility in the foreseeable future, the Western Conference is harder than Chinese algebra and a single injury could be career-endingly catastrophic. Calipari has way too much upside at UK to head for a plucky 8th seed.
I suspect the coach everyone will want this summer is Alvin Gentry (currently bench coaching for the Warriors). I think Gentry would be a great fit for the Pelicans but he'd also be a great fit for the Cavs and with the anti-Blatt drums a-beatin' in Cleveland, Gentry may well wait for that situation to shake itself out. Tom Thibodeau has long been everyone's favorite for this job but Thibs may be seeking more than just a coaching gig, that GM chair might suit him too. GM Demps just sold out Coach Williams after seemingly giving him the dreaded vote of confidence, might Demps be the next sold out?
What does it all add up to? I dunno. Regardless of the coach or the GM or any off-season roster adjustments, it feels like the Pelicans will look pretty much the same next year. Another maturation year out of Davis should raise all boats and if Holiday and Anderson can stay on the court, seems like the Pelicans could be a pretty good team. Good enough to win a playoff series? Ehhhh, I can't go that far just yet. But good enough to get into the playoffs, maybe even sneak up to 6th or 7th and that'd be a pretty good season. Right now it looks like the Pelicans best chance to get better revolves around what everyone does with their off-season: what if the Blazers go busto? What if the Mavs can't lure in good free agents? What if the Lakers flounder for another year? What's gonna happen to the Spurs? Otherwise, I don't see how the Pelicans get better. What they need is to get luckier. Also its worth remembering they're almost certain to go over the cap next year. If they wheel and deal well, they might parlay that extra expenditure into something special....or maybe they'll get fleeced by the Sixers again.
For now only 6 players are signed for next year at a total of $56.2m: SG Gordon (with a player option this summer), PG/SG Evans, PG Holiday, PF Anderson, PF Davis, SF Pondexter. That leaves only $12m to bring in 9 players (worth noting that they seem likely to go over the cap). They could perhaps bring back PG Cole, SG Babbitt, C AAjinca, C Withey as low cost bench-filling options. (I'd say Asik, Fredette, Cunningham, Douglas are off to new locations) They have only one pick in the upcoming draft: #56. Not a sexy pick, indeed not someone likely to be on the Pelican roster next fall (I'd look to Europe in hopes of finding talent for the 2016-17 campaign). They have the 2010 draft rights of Latavious Williams, whose shooting percentage in Spain has been eye-popping over the last coupla years; unfortunately nothing else about his game would suggest he is NBA-ready.
So how do the Pelicans get better next year? If everyone stays healthy, they should at least be in the running for #8 in the West. Beyond that, getting rid of Gordon is the only hope of flexibility.
Who's the coach next year? (Obligatory 1st question) Does Calipari want this job? No. Look, coaching Anthony Davis is a good career move for most basketball coaches but the roster is still a mess with little flexibility in the foreseeable future, the Western Conference is harder than Chinese algebra and a single injury could be career-endingly catastrophic. Calipari has way too much upside at UK to head for a plucky 8th seed.
I suspect the coach everyone will want this summer is Alvin Gentry (currently bench coaching for the Warriors). I think Gentry would be a great fit for the Pelicans but he'd also be a great fit for the Cavs and with the anti-Blatt drums a-beatin' in Cleveland, Gentry may well wait for that situation to shake itself out. Tom Thibodeau has long been everyone's favorite for this job but Thibs may be seeking more than just a coaching gig, that GM chair might suit him too. GM Demps just sold out Coach Williams after seemingly giving him the dreaded vote of confidence, might Demps be the next sold out?
What does it all add up to? I dunno. Regardless of the coach or the GM or any off-season roster adjustments, it feels like the Pelicans will look pretty much the same next year. Another maturation year out of Davis should raise all boats and if Holiday and Anderson can stay on the court, seems like the Pelicans could be a pretty good team. Good enough to win a playoff series? Ehhhh, I can't go that far just yet. But good enough to get into the playoffs, maybe even sneak up to 6th or 7th and that'd be a pretty good season. Right now it looks like the Pelicans best chance to get better revolves around what everyone does with their off-season: what if the Blazers go busto? What if the Mavs can't lure in good free agents? What if the Lakers flounder for another year? What's gonna happen to the Spurs? Otherwise, I don't see how the Pelicans get better. What they need is to get luckier. Also its worth remembering they're almost certain to go over the cap next year. If they wheel and deal well, they might parlay that extra expenditure into something special....or maybe they'll get fleeced by the Sixers again.
An NFL Counterfactual
As a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan (I know...I know) it has long seemed to me that the fate the Bills endured hinged entirely on one single play and it could've all been different. Here's what happened: Norwood misses the winning FG against the Giants, the Bills came back next year and promptly spotted the Redskins 14 points (then outscore them for the rest of the game), the Bills came back a 3rd time and got curb-stomped by the Cowboys, the Bills came back a 4th straight and get soundly beaten (though I wouldn't say 'curb-stomped') by the Cowboys again. The Bills then began their inevitable slide, free agents began to peel off, injuries piled up, etc., and the heyday was over. But it could've been different. It all comes down to Norwood's kick.
If Norwood makes that FG instead of pushing it wide, I think the Bills go on to win the Super Bowl the next year against the Redskins. They had already beaten the Skins in the regular season and if the Bills came into the game as the defending champs rather than last year's bumblers, I don't think they spot the Skins two quick TD's. Instead, they outplay the Skins, hold them off late and call themselves 2-time champs.
The next year the Bills return to their 3rd straight Super Bowl...and get shellacked by the Cowboys. Personally I always thought that Cowboys team, the first Jimmy Johnson champion, was the baddest team I ever saw and even if the Bills roll in as the 2-time defending champs, I think they would've gotten their hats handed to them. Losing to the Redskins in the 2nd trip was a product of choking the previous Super Bowl, but even if they hadn't choked the previous two Super Bowls, the Cowboys were awesome that year and would've pounded the Bills under any conditions. (Yeah, there's no version of history where that beatdown isn't for real)
Then the Bills flounder in the playoffs the next year and don't return for a 4th trip.
So in my version, the Bills win 2 straight Super Bowls, lose a 3rd one and then disappear a year earlier than reality. The NFL is a copy cat league, everyone emulates the champion until someone just morphs into a brand new champion for everyone to emulate anew. If the Bills won those Super Bowls instead of losing them, the domino effect throughout the league may have been huge. Perhaps the Bills players or coaches would've been plundered sooner or targeted on the field in different ways. Unfortunately those teams are only remembered for not being good enough but that was a great squad and 4 straight AFC titles was no fluke.
If Norwood makes that FG instead of pushing it wide, I think the Bills go on to win the Super Bowl the next year against the Redskins. They had already beaten the Skins in the regular season and if the Bills came into the game as the defending champs rather than last year's bumblers, I don't think they spot the Skins two quick TD's. Instead, they outplay the Skins, hold them off late and call themselves 2-time champs.
The next year the Bills return to their 3rd straight Super Bowl...and get shellacked by the Cowboys. Personally I always thought that Cowboys team, the first Jimmy Johnson champion, was the baddest team I ever saw and even if the Bills roll in as the 2-time defending champs, I think they would've gotten their hats handed to them. Losing to the Redskins in the 2nd trip was a product of choking the previous Super Bowl, but even if they hadn't choked the previous two Super Bowls, the Cowboys were awesome that year and would've pounded the Bills under any conditions. (Yeah, there's no version of history where that beatdown isn't for real)
Then the Bills flounder in the playoffs the next year and don't return for a 4th trip.
So in my version, the Bills win 2 straight Super Bowls, lose a 3rd one and then disappear a year earlier than reality. The NFL is a copy cat league, everyone emulates the champion until someone just morphs into a brand new champion for everyone to emulate anew. If the Bills won those Super Bowls instead of losing them, the domino effect throughout the league may have been huge. Perhaps the Bills players or coaches would've been plundered sooner or targeted on the field in different ways. Unfortunately those teams are only remembered for not being good enough but that was a great squad and 4 straight AFC titles was no fluke.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Playoffs for now
East
Bulls 2-2 Cavs
The Bulls really missed an opportunity to stick it to the Cavs in game 4. Lebron, Kyrie, Shumpert and Smith combined to go 18-58 from the floor...and the Bulls can't eke out a W? Hard to imagine the Bulls getting a better chance to beat the Cavs. The Bulls are still the same team they've been all year: good but not great, ought to be better. Love is out, Smith missed the first 2 games, Kyrie is clearly hobbled and the Bulls still find themselves knotted up. If the Bulls win game 5, they're back in it; if they don't, I think the Cavs take game 6 in Chicago. Hard to bet on the Cavs because they are so depleted but the Bulls still can't figure out how to beat them.
Wizards 2-2 Hawks
Hawks got it going again in game 4 against the Wall-less Wizards but they still look tentative to me. At their best the Hawks move the ball as well as anyone in the league and boast scoring options all over the roster, they win by outscoring people (seems obvious, don't it, but that's not everyone's strategy). But after jumping out to a commanding lead atop the Eastern Conference table, the Hawks have been slacking for a while now and while game 4 was a solid W, not sure they're all the way back to where they were. The Wizards are still figuring it out but they're a chest-thumping kinda squad who like to ride their hot streaks. They got 2 more games to get another streak going, but if Wall doesn't come back (and I don't see how he does--dude, his hand looks like an oven mitt!) hard to imagine the Wizards will have enough moxie or team speed to keep up with the Hawks. I suspect the Hawks take the next 2 games.
West
Grizzlies 2-2 Warriors
Finally! Game 4 was what the Warriors should've been doing all along (indeed, game 4 should've been the last game of this series). Before game 2, Curry collected his MVP award and then looked sluggish in back-to-back games, but last night he was juking like Barry Sanders out there and that's how he gets his shots: at his best he plays like the crazy guy on the subway that everyone struggles to ignore. The Grizzlies with or without Mike Conley should not have won two games in this series but they got that grit and grind and when Curry loses his focus (kinda like Federer in his prime: he can be beat only by his own wandering imagination) the Grizz can rise up. Its only been one game but it feels like the Warriors have their groove back. I think they'll win the next two games.
Clippers 3-1 Rockets
The Rockets just ain't got it, man. James Harden has lost a bit of his magic in the post-season and without Beverley and Motiejunas, the supporting cast just doesn't have the depth to provide useful minutes. Blake Griffin was my pre-season choice for MVP, he had a fine regular season but didn't get much attention on the MVP-level but right now he's announcing his intention to be in the MVP talk next year. Deandre, too, has played his game to perfection (crappy free throw shooting and all), been a rock down low for the Clips. I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA. Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them? I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling. (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)
Bulls 2-2 Cavs
The Bulls really missed an opportunity to stick it to the Cavs in game 4. Lebron, Kyrie, Shumpert and Smith combined to go 18-58 from the floor...and the Bulls can't eke out a W? Hard to imagine the Bulls getting a better chance to beat the Cavs. The Bulls are still the same team they've been all year: good but not great, ought to be better. Love is out, Smith missed the first 2 games, Kyrie is clearly hobbled and the Bulls still find themselves knotted up. If the Bulls win game 5, they're back in it; if they don't, I think the Cavs take game 6 in Chicago. Hard to bet on the Cavs because they are so depleted but the Bulls still can't figure out how to beat them.
Wizards 2-2 Hawks
Hawks got it going again in game 4 against the Wall-less Wizards but they still look tentative to me. At their best the Hawks move the ball as well as anyone in the league and boast scoring options all over the roster, they win by outscoring people (seems obvious, don't it, but that's not everyone's strategy). But after jumping out to a commanding lead atop the Eastern Conference table, the Hawks have been slacking for a while now and while game 4 was a solid W, not sure they're all the way back to where they were. The Wizards are still figuring it out but they're a chest-thumping kinda squad who like to ride their hot streaks. They got 2 more games to get another streak going, but if Wall doesn't come back (and I don't see how he does--dude, his hand looks like an oven mitt!) hard to imagine the Wizards will have enough moxie or team speed to keep up with the Hawks. I suspect the Hawks take the next 2 games.
West
Grizzlies 2-2 Warriors
Finally! Game 4 was what the Warriors should've been doing all along (indeed, game 4 should've been the last game of this series). Before game 2, Curry collected his MVP award and then looked sluggish in back-to-back games, but last night he was juking like Barry Sanders out there and that's how he gets his shots: at his best he plays like the crazy guy on the subway that everyone struggles to ignore. The Grizzlies with or without Mike Conley should not have won two games in this series but they got that grit and grind and when Curry loses his focus (kinda like Federer in his prime: he can be beat only by his own wandering imagination) the Grizz can rise up. Its only been one game but it feels like the Warriors have their groove back. I think they'll win the next two games.
Clippers 3-1 Rockets
The Rockets just ain't got it, man. James Harden has lost a bit of his magic in the post-season and without Beverley and Motiejunas, the supporting cast just doesn't have the depth to provide useful minutes. Blake Griffin was my pre-season choice for MVP, he had a fine regular season but didn't get much attention on the MVP-level but right now he's announcing his intention to be in the MVP talk next year. Deandre, too, has played his game to perfection (crappy free throw shooting and all), been a rock down low for the Clips. I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA. Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them? I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling. (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)
Monday, May 4, 2015
Potential Player Movement This Summer: Team Options
Not nearly as many team options as player options but there are a few notable players in there: Anthony Davis, Papanikolau, Mozgov, Caron Butler, Waiters, Speights, Drummond, Austin Rivers, John Jenkins, Beasley
When a team wants to keep a player long term, the time to do it is going into the team option year; next year the player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) and the team can only match another team's offer. The Pelicans very much want to keep Anthony Davis (very very much) for more than just the coming year. They'd like to re-sign him now and not wait til next year. Davis can make more money on that deal than he can with any other deal but Davis's best interest is to get to the best team so he can get playoff exposure and win games and be a hero, etc. This relationship isn't about money: the Pelicans are going to offer Davis the absolute maximum that he can possibly be paid, its up to Davis to take or leave it. The Pelicans' attempts to surround Davis with talent right now has been valiant but not successful. I presume Davis stays in New Orleans whether he signs this summer or next but he could maximize his own leverage if he chooses to exert himself.
Papanikolau had some nice moments in the Rockets rotation before he got hurt and faded toward the end of the season. The Rockets are an active team, guys will be coming and going from Houston this year but I think they'll keep Papanikolau (and maybe trade him).
Mozgov has played well with the Cavs, fits better than expected with Kyrie and Lebron. I reckon they look to extend him (and I reckon he takes it).
Personally I don't see any method to Stan Van's madness in Detroit, so I haven't the slightest idea if the Pistons want to keep Butler. (Probably depends on whether Butler thinks he can get more than $4.5m somewhere else and how badly Butler's agent can pester SV into cutting him loose)
OKC looks to keep Enes Kanter which I think means they have to let Waiters go. They have a lot of gunners-off-the-bench as it is, Waiters is not something the Thunder need next year anyway. (I suppose he could be trade bait but that has its limitations)
Speights has a had a nice coupla years with the Warriors but they have to cut salary next year which I would think would make Speights unattainable. (Or he could be a low cost efficiency option if they can move Lee and Iguodala)
The Pistons will not (cannot!) let Drummond get away.
Austin Rivers is an overly maligned player...but he's not great. That said, the Clippers would seem to be the best place for him right now. He had one good playoff game, is that enough for Doc to open the bank and keep Junior? (I got a dollar and a dime the answer is yes)
Jenkins doesn't look to be in the Hawks' future plans. He could be bench filler for them next year or over the side of the boat this summer.
Beasley probably can't play anywhere else besides Miami. The Heat might need to get salary to make moves this summer but if not, Beasley is a reasonable bench player for them.
There are also a coupla 2013 draft picks going into back to back team option years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Sergey Karasev, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert
Its a foregone conclusion that all of these guys will return with their teams next year, just a matter of whether they get extended by next summer. I am personally not high on KCP or Burke, those guys could have a year to contemplate a future change of scenery. Larkin had a so-so year with the godawful Knicks, not sure he gets more than 2nd string minutes going into his next contract. Karasev has a torn MCL, looks to miss most of next season after only playing 33 games this year, not sure he's got a long future in the NBA. Plumlee has had nice moments, he's still cheap enough to be irresistible for the Nets, I suspect he'll be in Brooklyn through their next transformation. Gobert is a star, a legit DPOY candidate next year, pay the man!
When a team wants to keep a player long term, the time to do it is going into the team option year; next year the player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) and the team can only match another team's offer. The Pelicans very much want to keep Anthony Davis (very very much) for more than just the coming year. They'd like to re-sign him now and not wait til next year. Davis can make more money on that deal than he can with any other deal but Davis's best interest is to get to the best team so he can get playoff exposure and win games and be a hero, etc. This relationship isn't about money: the Pelicans are going to offer Davis the absolute maximum that he can possibly be paid, its up to Davis to take or leave it. The Pelicans' attempts to surround Davis with talent right now has been valiant but not successful. I presume Davis stays in New Orleans whether he signs this summer or next but he could maximize his own leverage if he chooses to exert himself.
Papanikolau had some nice moments in the Rockets rotation before he got hurt and faded toward the end of the season. The Rockets are an active team, guys will be coming and going from Houston this year but I think they'll keep Papanikolau (and maybe trade him).
Mozgov has played well with the Cavs, fits better than expected with Kyrie and Lebron. I reckon they look to extend him (and I reckon he takes it).
Personally I don't see any method to Stan Van's madness in Detroit, so I haven't the slightest idea if the Pistons want to keep Butler. (Probably depends on whether Butler thinks he can get more than $4.5m somewhere else and how badly Butler's agent can pester SV into cutting him loose)
OKC looks to keep Enes Kanter which I think means they have to let Waiters go. They have a lot of gunners-off-the-bench as it is, Waiters is not something the Thunder need next year anyway. (I suppose he could be trade bait but that has its limitations)
Speights has a had a nice coupla years with the Warriors but they have to cut salary next year which I would think would make Speights unattainable. (Or he could be a low cost efficiency option if they can move Lee and Iguodala)
The Pistons will not (cannot!) let Drummond get away.
Austin Rivers is an overly maligned player...but he's not great. That said, the Clippers would seem to be the best place for him right now. He had one good playoff game, is that enough for Doc to open the bank and keep Junior? (I got a dollar and a dime the answer is yes)
Jenkins doesn't look to be in the Hawks' future plans. He could be bench filler for them next year or over the side of the boat this summer.
Beasley probably can't play anywhere else besides Miami. The Heat might need to get salary to make moves this summer but if not, Beasley is a reasonable bench player for them.
There are also a coupla 2013 draft picks going into back to back team option years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Sergey Karasev, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert
Its a foregone conclusion that all of these guys will return with their teams next year, just a matter of whether they get extended by next summer. I am personally not high on KCP or Burke, those guys could have a year to contemplate a future change of scenery. Larkin had a so-so year with the godawful Knicks, not sure he gets more than 2nd string minutes going into his next contract. Karasev has a torn MCL, looks to miss most of next season after only playing 33 games this year, not sure he's got a long future in the NBA. Plumlee has had nice moments, he's still cheap enough to be irresistible for the Nets, I suspect he'll be in Brooklyn through their next transformation. Gobert is a star, a legit DPOY candidate next year, pay the man!
Potential Player Movement This Summer: Player Options
Aaron Aflalo has already exercised his player option ($7.9m) and will likely leave Portland. Who will follow him to the open market? I don't know what these guys will do but here's my general perception as a watcher.
This summer's player options: Lebron ($21.5m), Brook Lopez ($16.7), K Love ($16.7), D Wade ($16.1), Eric Gordon ($15.5), Hibbert ($15.5), Big Al Jefferson ($13.8), David West ($12), Deng ($10.1), Jeff Green ($9.4), Monta Ellis ($8.7), Dragic ($7.5), JR Smith ($6.3), Gerald Henderson ($6), Pierce ($5.5), Budinger ($5), Corey Brewer ($4.9), Felton ($3.9), Hinrich ($2.8), Jameer Nelson ($2.8), Mike Miller ($2.8), Steve Blake ($2.1), Danny Granger ($2.1), Aaron Gray ($1.3), Alan Anderson ($1.3), Brandon Rush ($1.2), Cartier Martin ($1.2), Garret Temple ($1.1), Aminu ($1.1), Ed Davis ($1m).
A few will opt out to get raises from their own teams rather than hit the market: Lebron, Love, Wade, Ellis, Dragic, Brewer, Blake, Aminu
These guys have the luxury of re-configuring their current deals. Maybe they actually wanna skip town (or need to look that way to gain leverage), but probably they just want more money to do the same thing in the same place next year. All these guys have earned it and I think they will get raises from their current teams rather than move on.
A few will opt out to get out: Lopez, (maybe Love goes here), Green, (maybe Monta goes here), Pierce, (maybe Brewer), Jameer, (maybe Blake), Granger, (maybe Aminu), (maybe Davis)
These guys think they can get paid more somewhere else or have some other reason to prefer a new team. Lopez is a good solid center but there will be a lot of quality centers out there, Lopez could be somebody's overpriced prize or maybe he falters and he wishes he just stayed in Brooklyn. Right now Love is saying all the proper patriotic things about staying with the Cavs, perhaps its genuine, perhaps its all a smokescreen and he jets off to sunnier climes as soon as the free agent period begins; I suspect he wanted to be in Cleveland all along, that trio will dominate the East for 5-6 years at least, why would he leave? But maybe he always wanted to play for the Lakers or Knicks or whoever. Jeff Green hasn't turned out to be a fit in Memphis, but he's good enough to get a decent deal somewhere (hello, Denver!). If the Wizards sneak out of the East then maybe Pierce sticks around but I doubt it; he'll have many options this summer (returning to the Celtics just in time for the team to get good again seems like the natural fit, don't it?) and the Wizards should be one of those options. Brewer is a great playmaker off the bench, I think the Rockets should hold to him but the Rockets like to grab even when they can't grasp, so I can see Brewer playing just about anywhere next year. Jameer spent double digit years in Orlando...and has been to 3 cities in the last year. And I reckon he'll head back East, he can do better than Denver and I think he will. Blake had a solid season for the Blazers, that team looks like it may disintegrate quickly, Blake could play it for a raise or he may be a-searchin' for greener pastures. Granger might retire, though he was a badass not that long ago, he's kind of invisible now, I'd like to see him go to Utah, he may well be the right veteran presence. Aminu gave as good a defensive effort on Harden as I've seen anyone give all year, that alone should earn him well more than his scheduled $1.1m (hell, the Rockets ought to give him $5m at least). I don't really know Ed Davis but my perception is that he's an under appreciated player, perhaps he can get more than $1m.
A few won't opt out because they don't think they'll get more money somewhere else: (maybe Lopez goes here), Gordon, Big Al, JR Smith, Felton, Rush
I still submit Eric Gordon's (1 yr/$15.3m) contract as the worst 1 year deal in the league, though there may be a team out there that wants to pay him more but I think he's lucky to be paid so much to play alongside Anthony Davis. Big Al has had his ups and his downs, there will be a lot of centers out there, his flaws will be on display, since I suspect Charlotte is where he wants to be anyway, I think he plays out his deal. JR is in a pretty good situation playing Byron Scott to Lebron (Magic), Kyrie (other Magic), and Love (Worthy), he should stick around. I'm not sure Felton has another NBA contract in him, I reckon he plays this year with the Mavs, then roams the league for as long as he can. I'm not sure who Rush is or what he does or whether he should get another contract (some guys are great practice guys, locker room guys, they fill out your roster just to be good influences, nice guys, gophers, cheerleaders, etc) but I reckon he plays out his current deal.
A few won't opt out because they actually like their current situation: Hibbert, West, Deng, Hinrich, Miller, Martin
Hibbert could hit the market and probably get paid (though still an offensive liability, he's also still a defensive badass), West too (great veteran presence, solid player, affordable deal), but I think they fit the Pacers and vice versa, with George coming back and a lottery pick coming in, why leave now? The Heat look to be pretty good, Deng could be a 6th Man type candidate coming off that bench. Hinrich is as much a part of the Bulls as Noah or D Rose. Who else is gonna pay Mike Miller to be a cheerleader? My recollection is that Stan Van targeted Cartier Martin as someone he really wanted, so I reckon he stays right there.
And some will .... I dunno: Henderson, Budinger, Anderson, Gray, Temple
Gerald Henderson is one of those irrational confidence guys that occasionally looks good and just as often looks terrible, as up and down as any current player I can think of. (Can he get more money outside of Charlotte? I dunno. Should he get more money? I dunno. Does he want to leave Charlotte? I dunno) I dunno about Budinger, never thought much of his game honestly, think $5m is probably about what he ought to get, but maybe there's someone out there that thinks he can be the poor man's Chandler Parsons. Alan Anderson is not a bad player and he can be a good bench player on a really good team (Heat, Clippers) or he can be an overworked, underpaid horse for a godawful Nets squad...what does he prefer? I dunno. Will Aaron Gray get another NBA contract? I dunno. Garret Temple is an okay player, a pretty good back up PG, he could maybe get more money somewhere else but I'm hard pressed to think of that other place.
This summer's player options: Lebron ($21.5m), Brook Lopez ($16.7), K Love ($16.7), D Wade ($16.1), Eric Gordon ($15.5), Hibbert ($15.5), Big Al Jefferson ($13.8), David West ($12), Deng ($10.1), Jeff Green ($9.4), Monta Ellis ($8.7), Dragic ($7.5), JR Smith ($6.3), Gerald Henderson ($6), Pierce ($5.5), Budinger ($5), Corey Brewer ($4.9), Felton ($3.9), Hinrich ($2.8), Jameer Nelson ($2.8), Mike Miller ($2.8), Steve Blake ($2.1), Danny Granger ($2.1), Aaron Gray ($1.3), Alan Anderson ($1.3), Brandon Rush ($1.2), Cartier Martin ($1.2), Garret Temple ($1.1), Aminu ($1.1), Ed Davis ($1m).
A few will opt out to get raises from their own teams rather than hit the market: Lebron, Love, Wade, Ellis, Dragic, Brewer, Blake, Aminu
These guys have the luxury of re-configuring their current deals. Maybe they actually wanna skip town (or need to look that way to gain leverage), but probably they just want more money to do the same thing in the same place next year. All these guys have earned it and I think they will get raises from their current teams rather than move on.
A few will opt out to get out: Lopez, (maybe Love goes here), Green, (maybe Monta goes here), Pierce, (maybe Brewer), Jameer, (maybe Blake), Granger, (maybe Aminu), (maybe Davis)
These guys think they can get paid more somewhere else or have some other reason to prefer a new team. Lopez is a good solid center but there will be a lot of quality centers out there, Lopez could be somebody's overpriced prize or maybe he falters and he wishes he just stayed in Brooklyn. Right now Love is saying all the proper patriotic things about staying with the Cavs, perhaps its genuine, perhaps its all a smokescreen and he jets off to sunnier climes as soon as the free agent period begins; I suspect he wanted to be in Cleveland all along, that trio will dominate the East for 5-6 years at least, why would he leave? But maybe he always wanted to play for the Lakers or Knicks or whoever. Jeff Green hasn't turned out to be a fit in Memphis, but he's good enough to get a decent deal somewhere (hello, Denver!). If the Wizards sneak out of the East then maybe Pierce sticks around but I doubt it; he'll have many options this summer (returning to the Celtics just in time for the team to get good again seems like the natural fit, don't it?) and the Wizards should be one of those options. Brewer is a great playmaker off the bench, I think the Rockets should hold to him but the Rockets like to grab even when they can't grasp, so I can see Brewer playing just about anywhere next year. Jameer spent double digit years in Orlando...and has been to 3 cities in the last year. And I reckon he'll head back East, he can do better than Denver and I think he will. Blake had a solid season for the Blazers, that team looks like it may disintegrate quickly, Blake could play it for a raise or he may be a-searchin' for greener pastures. Granger might retire, though he was a badass not that long ago, he's kind of invisible now, I'd like to see him go to Utah, he may well be the right veteran presence. Aminu gave as good a defensive effort on Harden as I've seen anyone give all year, that alone should earn him well more than his scheduled $1.1m (hell, the Rockets ought to give him $5m at least). I don't really know Ed Davis but my perception is that he's an under appreciated player, perhaps he can get more than $1m.
A few won't opt out because they don't think they'll get more money somewhere else: (maybe Lopez goes here), Gordon, Big Al, JR Smith, Felton, Rush
I still submit Eric Gordon's (1 yr/$15.3m) contract as the worst 1 year deal in the league, though there may be a team out there that wants to pay him more but I think he's lucky to be paid so much to play alongside Anthony Davis. Big Al has had his ups and his downs, there will be a lot of centers out there, his flaws will be on display, since I suspect Charlotte is where he wants to be anyway, I think he plays out his deal. JR is in a pretty good situation playing Byron Scott to Lebron (Magic), Kyrie (other Magic), and Love (Worthy), he should stick around. I'm not sure Felton has another NBA contract in him, I reckon he plays this year with the Mavs, then roams the league for as long as he can. I'm not sure who Rush is or what he does or whether he should get another contract (some guys are great practice guys, locker room guys, they fill out your roster just to be good influences, nice guys, gophers, cheerleaders, etc) but I reckon he plays out his current deal.
A few won't opt out because they actually like their current situation: Hibbert, West, Deng, Hinrich, Miller, Martin
Hibbert could hit the market and probably get paid (though still an offensive liability, he's also still a defensive badass), West too (great veteran presence, solid player, affordable deal), but I think they fit the Pacers and vice versa, with George coming back and a lottery pick coming in, why leave now? The Heat look to be pretty good, Deng could be a 6th Man type candidate coming off that bench. Hinrich is as much a part of the Bulls as Noah or D Rose. Who else is gonna pay Mike Miller to be a cheerleader? My recollection is that Stan Van targeted Cartier Martin as someone he really wanted, so I reckon he stays right there.
And some will .... I dunno: Henderson, Budinger, Anderson, Gray, Temple
Gerald Henderson is one of those irrational confidence guys that occasionally looks good and just as often looks terrible, as up and down as any current player I can think of. (Can he get more money outside of Charlotte? I dunno. Should he get more money? I dunno. Does he want to leave Charlotte? I dunno) I dunno about Budinger, never thought much of his game honestly, think $5m is probably about what he ought to get, but maybe there's someone out there that thinks he can be the poor man's Chandler Parsons. Alan Anderson is not a bad player and he can be a good bench player on a really good team (Heat, Clippers) or he can be an overworked, underpaid horse for a godawful Nets squad...what does he prefer? I dunno. Will Aaron Gray get another NBA contract? I dunno. Garret Temple is an okay player, a pretty good back up PG, he could maybe get more money somewhere else but I'm hard pressed to think of that other place.
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Playoff Predictions (East)
Bulls-Cavs
This was my pre-season pick and here we are. I thought the roles would be reversed, the Bulls with home court advantage, but I don't think it much matters. Game 6 was a debacle for the Bucks but I think it may have been the wakeup call the Bulls have been waiting for. I thought at the beginning of the year the Bulls would get out of the East (and lose to the Spurs....nope) but all season long I kept waiting for the Bulls to be better. They were a fine team, but I never saw unstoppable. The Hawks were the juggernaut team this year but it feels like it should've been the Bulls: Pau had a great 1st year, Butler had a great maturation season, D Rose was in and out but generally a positive contributor, Noah wasn't great but it never felt like he had to be this year (could be that not be needed is his Kryptonite), Mirotic was a pleasant surprise all over the court, Dunleavy and Brooks slid back to their proper positions and contributed just fine; that alone is way more than they had last year so why aren't they any better than last year? The Hawks made no moves and took off this year, the Bulls made many good moves and are in the same place they were last year. I thought they'd be a better regular season team and a dangerous force come playoff time. The Bucks gave a belated challenge and made the Bulls look sloppy but game 6 was the united front performance the Bulls needed. (Note that Mirotic played sparingly, see if Dunleavy gets more meaningful minutes while Mirotic gets spot duty against the Cavs)
The Cavs tried hard to make the Celtics look good but in the end they blew past them just like they always should have. They lost Love for the rest of the playoffs (my first thought was the injury story was smokescreen allowing Love to return at his own pace, but surgery's no joke, guess he's out) and they're without JR Smith for the first two games at home; losing Love is tough: he could've spread the floor and kept Noah in check, now the Cavs need Mozgov and Thompson to man up and play some damn ball. And losing Smith too is a blow especially since he's missing home games where the role players generally contribute more in the playoffs. Kyrie can outscore most anyone he plays against and Lebron is still the best player in basketball, they can beat the Bulls. But this was already an imperfect team now further limited. Been 4 years since Lebron and the Spurs have both lost in the playoffs (and then to the team that beat them both), but I think the Bulls get it going. I'll say Pau has 2 big games, Butler has 1 big game and D Rose has 1 big game and the Bulls move on. Bulls in 6 (1,2,4,6).
Wizards-Hawks
The Wizards are peaking. They did this last year too: played their best basketball after the all-star break, smoked the Bulls, ran into #1 Pacers (who had been struggling mightily). Seemed like everything was right for the Wizards....but they lost. Scenario kinda the same this year. no? Wall is ready to be a star, Beal is dangerous, Pierce is the old timey Pierce, Gortat is in a good mood and playing good ball, Otto Porter stepped off the milk carton and into our hearts, even Drew Gooden is raining 3's. Oh, times are good in DC!
The Hawks haven't played their best ball in quite some time. That January freight train has long since left the station. The Nets pushed the #1 seed further than anyone else got pushed in the East but the Nets only suck because they kinda want to not because they actually suck, so I'm not gonna clown the Hawks for not sweeping them. As with the Bulls, I was impressed with their game 6: confident, in control, the Nets had a stretch where they just couldn't help but turn the ball over, the game was over quick. The January Hawks are not walking through that door but I think the April Hawks are about to get their game on and show the Wiz what's what. Teague and Korver can outscore Wall and Beal, the Wizards' difference maker is Pierce and I just can't see Pierce pulling out 4 games. It'll be tough but I think the Hawks have too much offense for the Wizards. Hawks in 6 (1,4,5,6).
Conference Finals: Bulls-Hawks
That should be a pretty good match. My gut right now is the Bulls will enter drained from the Cavs, the Hawks will enter rejuvenated from the Wizards. Hawks in 7.
This was my pre-season pick and here we are. I thought the roles would be reversed, the Bulls with home court advantage, but I don't think it much matters. Game 6 was a debacle for the Bucks but I think it may have been the wakeup call the Bulls have been waiting for. I thought at the beginning of the year the Bulls would get out of the East (and lose to the Spurs....nope) but all season long I kept waiting for the Bulls to be better. They were a fine team, but I never saw unstoppable. The Hawks were the juggernaut team this year but it feels like it should've been the Bulls: Pau had a great 1st year, Butler had a great maturation season, D Rose was in and out but generally a positive contributor, Noah wasn't great but it never felt like he had to be this year (could be that not be needed is his Kryptonite), Mirotic was a pleasant surprise all over the court, Dunleavy and Brooks slid back to their proper positions and contributed just fine; that alone is way more than they had last year so why aren't they any better than last year? The Hawks made no moves and took off this year, the Bulls made many good moves and are in the same place they were last year. I thought they'd be a better regular season team and a dangerous force come playoff time. The Bucks gave a belated challenge and made the Bulls look sloppy but game 6 was the united front performance the Bulls needed. (Note that Mirotic played sparingly, see if Dunleavy gets more meaningful minutes while Mirotic gets spot duty against the Cavs)
The Cavs tried hard to make the Celtics look good but in the end they blew past them just like they always should have. They lost Love for the rest of the playoffs (my first thought was the injury story was smokescreen allowing Love to return at his own pace, but surgery's no joke, guess he's out) and they're without JR Smith for the first two games at home; losing Love is tough: he could've spread the floor and kept Noah in check, now the Cavs need Mozgov and Thompson to man up and play some damn ball. And losing Smith too is a blow especially since he's missing home games where the role players generally contribute more in the playoffs. Kyrie can outscore most anyone he plays against and Lebron is still the best player in basketball, they can beat the Bulls. But this was already an imperfect team now further limited. Been 4 years since Lebron and the Spurs have both lost in the playoffs (and then to the team that beat them both), but I think the Bulls get it going. I'll say Pau has 2 big games, Butler has 1 big game and D Rose has 1 big game and the Bulls move on. Bulls in 6 (1,2,4,6).
Wizards-Hawks
The Wizards are peaking. They did this last year too: played their best basketball after the all-star break, smoked the Bulls, ran into #1 Pacers (who had been struggling mightily). Seemed like everything was right for the Wizards....but they lost. Scenario kinda the same this year. no? Wall is ready to be a star, Beal is dangerous, Pierce is the old timey Pierce, Gortat is in a good mood and playing good ball, Otto Porter stepped off the milk carton and into our hearts, even Drew Gooden is raining 3's. Oh, times are good in DC!
The Hawks haven't played their best ball in quite some time. That January freight train has long since left the station. The Nets pushed the #1 seed further than anyone else got pushed in the East but the Nets only suck because they kinda want to not because they actually suck, so I'm not gonna clown the Hawks for not sweeping them. As with the Bulls, I was impressed with their game 6: confident, in control, the Nets had a stretch where they just couldn't help but turn the ball over, the game was over quick. The January Hawks are not walking through that door but I think the April Hawks are about to get their game on and show the Wiz what's what. Teague and Korver can outscore Wall and Beal, the Wizards' difference maker is Pierce and I just can't see Pierce pulling out 4 games. It'll be tough but I think the Hawks have too much offense for the Wizards. Hawks in 6 (1,4,5,6).
Conference Finals: Bulls-Hawks
That should be a pretty good match. My gut right now is the Bulls will enter drained from the Cavs, the Hawks will enter rejuvenated from the Wizards. Hawks in 7.
Playoff Predictions (West)
Grizzlies-Warriors
The Grizzlies laid a whooping on the Blazers but the Blazers were depleted and by the end the Grizzlies were too. Look, I like the Grizzlies, love their fire, their devotion to each other, their dedication to the dirty work...but man if Conley doesn't play, I just don't see how they score enough to even come close to hanging with the Warriors. Like, not even close, I don't see it at all. And if Conley does play...I like Conley, underrated scorer and defender but...with a broken face? Come on, man, Curry is gonna bury him deep. (If the Grizzlies get swept, is Gasol suddenly available like Aldridge? Do we whisper Gasol in every town in this league?)
The Warriors just rolled the Pelicans and they're about to roll the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have pride (Bogut better watch himself, maybe Barnes too) but they just don't have enough offense to hang with the Warriors. The Warriors shouldn't really even have to try hard more than a few minutes at a time in this series, I can see Speights and Lee getting decent minutes in this series. Warriors in 4.
Clippers-Rockets
The Clippers did it, they beat the Spurs. (Unbelievable game 7, tied with ten seconds to go, you knew it was gonna be tight) Watching that series I thought all along that the winner of that series would beat the Rockets (even on the road). And I'll stick with that. We all saw it: the Clipper 6-man rotation is awesome, nothing past 6 is awesome. If that 6 can stay on the floor, they can beat the Rockets. That team took a game in San Antonio, they can take one in Houston. I don't think Griffin will use and abuse Terrence Jones the way he dominated Splitter/Duncan but he'll be better than Jones, Deandre will be better than Dwight, CP3 will get one more win than Harden.
The Rockets are a team dominated by James Harden. At his best he's unstoppable, at his worst he's still better than your best guy. How deep can one scorer, dominant as Harden is, go in the playoffs? The Rocket supporting cast is missing Beverley, Motiejunas and McDaniels, three energy guys that can make plays on defense and keep the possession on offense; none of them are all-stars but this late in the season you'd rather that bench was fuller. Corey Brewer might have a coupla good games in him but against the Mavs the Rockets got time out of Prigioni and Capela, can those guys see the floor against the Clippers? In game 7, even in Houston, I'll take Paul over Harden. Clippers in 7 (2,3,6,7).
Conference Finals: Clippers-Warriors
I say the Warriors roll into the Final on an 8-game (playoff) winning streak. Meanwhile the 6 guys that call themselves the Clippers will have gone seven with the Spurs, then seven with the Rockets, and then roll into the Bay Area expecting to win. After watching UK fall after a 38-game winning streak, I hesitate but I gotta take the Warriors to sweep again. Warriors in (fo, fo) fo.
Finals: Hawks-Warriors
I don't think the Warriors would sweep the Hawks but I can't see the Hawks winning four games out of seven. The Hawks will give the Warriors pause, the Warriors will have some struggles, but they'll prevail because they're the better squad. Warriors in 7.
That's it for now. Let's see how I long I agree with myself...
The Grizzlies laid a whooping on the Blazers but the Blazers were depleted and by the end the Grizzlies were too. Look, I like the Grizzlies, love their fire, their devotion to each other, their dedication to the dirty work...but man if Conley doesn't play, I just don't see how they score enough to even come close to hanging with the Warriors. Like, not even close, I don't see it at all. And if Conley does play...I like Conley, underrated scorer and defender but...with a broken face? Come on, man, Curry is gonna bury him deep. (If the Grizzlies get swept, is Gasol suddenly available like Aldridge? Do we whisper Gasol in every town in this league?)
The Warriors just rolled the Pelicans and they're about to roll the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have pride (Bogut better watch himself, maybe Barnes too) but they just don't have enough offense to hang with the Warriors. The Warriors shouldn't really even have to try hard more than a few minutes at a time in this series, I can see Speights and Lee getting decent minutes in this series. Warriors in 4.
Clippers-Rockets
The Clippers did it, they beat the Spurs. (Unbelievable game 7, tied with ten seconds to go, you knew it was gonna be tight) Watching that series I thought all along that the winner of that series would beat the Rockets (even on the road). And I'll stick with that. We all saw it: the Clipper 6-man rotation is awesome, nothing past 6 is awesome. If that 6 can stay on the floor, they can beat the Rockets. That team took a game in San Antonio, they can take one in Houston. I don't think Griffin will use and abuse Terrence Jones the way he dominated Splitter/Duncan but he'll be better than Jones, Deandre will be better than Dwight, CP3 will get one more win than Harden.
The Rockets are a team dominated by James Harden. At his best he's unstoppable, at his worst he's still better than your best guy. How deep can one scorer, dominant as Harden is, go in the playoffs? The Rocket supporting cast is missing Beverley, Motiejunas and McDaniels, three energy guys that can make plays on defense and keep the possession on offense; none of them are all-stars but this late in the season you'd rather that bench was fuller. Corey Brewer might have a coupla good games in him but against the Mavs the Rockets got time out of Prigioni and Capela, can those guys see the floor against the Clippers? In game 7, even in Houston, I'll take Paul over Harden. Clippers in 7 (2,3,6,7).
Conference Finals: Clippers-Warriors
I say the Warriors roll into the Final on an 8-game (playoff) winning streak. Meanwhile the 6 guys that call themselves the Clippers will have gone seven with the Spurs, then seven with the Rockets, and then roll into the Bay Area expecting to win. After watching UK fall after a 38-game winning streak, I hesitate but I gotta take the Warriors to sweep again. Warriors in (fo, fo) fo.
Finals: Hawks-Warriors
I don't think the Warriors would sweep the Hawks but I can't see the Hawks winning four games out of seven. The Hawks will give the Warriors pause, the Warriors will have some struggles, but they'll prevail because they're the better squad. Warriors in 7.
That's it for now. Let's see how I long I agree with myself...
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