Game Seven, the two greatest words in all of sports. I had the Thunder in six, which should've worked out but Durant and Westbrook played wild down the stretch, while the Warriors regained their shooting touch. Feels like the Warriors are back, they've got the momentum and the Thunder are backpedaling. But I'm sticking with the Thunder! Don't get me wrong: if Klay and Steph break the record for 3's in a playoff game again, the Thunder don't have much of a shot. But I'm betting the Warriors stumble tonight and the Thunder reclaim the momentum.
In Game Six, I kept waiting for Waiters or Foye or Morrow to make a play or two, I think that's all it would've taken to secure the victory. Instead, Westbrook became turnover prone and Durant kept forcing shots, leaving their teammates to stand around and watch. This is why they lost so many games in the 4th quarter this season. (Their 4th quarter struggles are basic: everyone else's defense tightens up and the Thunder's does not, a step back on both ends of the court) Easy to blame the big stars for the loss in Game Six but I'm gonna go ahead and blame Coach Donovan instead. He failed to rotate Morrow in to get him touches throughout the game, he didn't give Foye enough minutes and he turned his back on Kanter, who was actually effective shooting the ball. It was incumbent on Donovan to remind his big stars to remember the contributions of their teammates and the way to do that was to be more effective in his subs. That becomes less of an issue in Game Seven, when it probably will come down to Durant and/or Westbrook being the hero.
As for the Warriors, its easy to think they're back, that they've shaken off the rust and returned to form. But, except for Klay (who has been pretty magnificent all through the post-season) and Iguodala (whose defense has been superb), I'm not really seeing it. Steph was still tentative to get shots at the basket, Draymond is still being goofy (and one technical foul away from missing a game), Barnes has actually been pretty bad on offense (not bad on D), Livingston and Speights (outside of one good shooting night) haven't given much at all. And you're telling me that the key is Bogut? The Warriors beat people all year long because they can shoot the lights out and pile on plenty of points at a moment's notice. That can still happen, to be sure, but unless it happens, I'm not sure they're the better team.
I think OKC gets over their butterflies and puts the pressure back on Golden State. Unless Klay and Steph are perfect, I think the Warrior swagger might get them into trouble. Westbrook is relentless, he just needs to find his teammates again and Durant just needs a solid shooting night to put them over the top. Don't be surprised if Coach Kerr tightens up and Coach Donovan makes all the right moves. Thunder in 7.
Monday, May 30, 2016
Real Madrid (5-3 pks) 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Ahhhh, it was a good day. Champions League in the afternoon, Western Conference Game Six in the evening. I watched very little soccer this past season, don't think I saw Atletico all year, a little surprised how the game went down. Real scored an early goal and than went into a defensive shell, which I thought was Atletico's game plan. Instead Atletico was forced to push the tempo, mostly dominating the ball for the last 60 minutes of regulation. Its easy to look back and wonder how it might've been different if Atletico converted their PK early in the 2nd. But it seems like Real would've turned up the offense and pushed Atletico into their defensive posture. I used to hate the penalty shootout to decide big games but the drama is intense, even if it can only lead to disappointment. Bringing Christiano Ronaldo in for the 5th kick was the perfect move and it worked. Good game, hope I get to see more soccer next year.
Thursday, May 26, 2016
NBA Bric-a-Brac
Two new head coaches to announce: Rockets sign Mike D'antoni and Grizzlies hire David Fizdale. This will be D'antoni's 5th NBA gig and I personally am looking forward to see what he's able to get out of James Harden. Fizdale,a longtime Coach Spoelstra assistant in Miami, seems ready to take his turn as an NBA coach and while the Grizzlies are not exactly at their best right now, they are a tight knit hardened squad that give their rookie coach a lot to work with. There are no more openings left, seems like next year's Coach of the Year candidates are set.
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Playoff Moments (Draymond edition)
So Draymond Green did not get suspended for this play:
Which meant that he was available in Game Four for this play:
The Warriors lost both games and are now down 3-1 going back to the Bay Area for Game Five. Draymond may have accumulated enough technical fouls to be suspended for Game Five...but no word yet.
Donald Trump's America, dude: if the Warriors win then Draymond is a winner and doing whatever it takes to win; but if the Warriors don't come back and win this series then expect these two clips to get played over and over for the rest of the summer. And for the Warriors to get roasted mercilessly.
I predicted the Thunder would take Game One (though the game itself was not at all what I thought it would be) and that the home team would take all the rest of the games resulting in the Thunder winning in 6. So far so good on that prediction. But if the Warriors lose Draymond at home, this might be over in 5 because it certainly behooves the Thunder to finish this as quick as possible. That said, the flip side is certainly possible: Warriors cruise in Game Five, restore their mojo with a road victory in Game Six and then get destiny back on track with a win in Game Seven. Not at all impossible...but not looking terribly likely right now. Especially if their most vicious defensive midfielder is out on yellow cards.
Which meant that he was available in Game Four for this play:
The Warriors lost both games and are now down 3-1 going back to the Bay Area for Game Five. Draymond may have accumulated enough technical fouls to be suspended for Game Five...but no word yet.
Donald Trump's America, dude: if the Warriors win then Draymond is a winner and doing whatever it takes to win; but if the Warriors don't come back and win this series then expect these two clips to get played over and over for the rest of the summer. And for the Warriors to get roasted mercilessly.
I predicted the Thunder would take Game One (though the game itself was not at all what I thought it would be) and that the home team would take all the rest of the games resulting in the Thunder winning in 6. So far so good on that prediction. But if the Warriors lose Draymond at home, this might be over in 5 because it certainly behooves the Thunder to finish this as quick as possible. That said, the flip side is certainly possible: Warriors cruise in Game Five, restore their mojo with a road victory in Game Six and then get destiny back on track with a win in Game Seven. Not at all impossible...but not looking terribly likely right now. Especially if their most vicious defensive midfielder is out on yellow cards.
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Minnesota T-Wolves Observations
The Wolves are sitting pretty. They feature back-to-back ROY winners leading a host of young talent, a brand new badass coach to whip the kids into shape, the farewell season (I mean, right?) of a local legend and the legacy of Coach Flip is becoming a beautiful rainbow rather than a gloomy storm cloud. And they've got the #5 in the upcoming draft--everything's coming up Timberwolf!
Right now the projected starting lineup would probably be: C Dieng, PF Towns, SF Wiggins, SG LaVine, PG Rubio with Muhammad, Pekovic, Payne, Bjelica, #5 pick and Jones off the bench (let's assume Garnett is the highest paid assistant coach in the league and not a proper rotation player, although I do expect him to start and get something in the 5-10 MPG range). Not bad, that team should already be in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West and that's if they do nothing at all. But they still have something like $30m in cap space and 4 roster spots to fill.
For GM Layden/Thibodeau there is one glaring loose tooth on that roster: Nikola Pekovic has 2yrs/$23.7m left on his deal. Pekovic is an injury-prone leftover from a different time in Wolves history, now he's still a solid scorer in the lane but hard to imagine the Wolves envision him in their future. If he can play, fine, he becomes another helpful veteran off the bench; but if he can't, they have to figure out how to move him (can he be traded to Italy or Spain? China in the mix for that contract?). As for the #5 pick, I think Buddy Hield is perfect for the Wolves and could be there at #5: a 5th year senior, he's a little more mature and should be ready to step in and be a solid scorer right away, more youth movement but hopefully he can fast track to the rest of the crew.
Free agents I think they should focus on: Luol Deng (hard working veteran that's good all over the place, great role model for the kids, a former Thibs soldier, do they want to reunite?), Khris Humphries (not great but he's really good at what he does, will play hard for 10-15 MPG, another vet for the kids to keep an eye on), Courtney Lee (depending on who they get with that #5 pick, Lee could be the hard working nice guy that brings scoring off the bench). Not exactly top of the line guys, huh? Shouldn't they push for Durant? No, dude, they don't need any of that stuff. This team needs steady vets that can be relied upon do their part, smart guys that will support the youth movement. Reinventing this squad or making a big splashy move is not necessary with this team, so I'd skip all that, stay under the radar, accumulate smart hungry veterans.
Coaching-wise Thib's first duty is also clear: turn LaVine and Payne into defensive standouts and, man, the Wolves instantly vault into top 5 in the West (where they might be vaulting anyway). This team is already pretty good, for the most part Thibs just needs to mold them into shape. But the here-and-now improvement that Thibs could produce would be making LaVine a more reliable player (I'd start with his D, improve that and you can live with his inconsistent offense) and getting something out of Payne (telling you, man, I haven't given up on the dude, if Thibs can reach him, then the Wolves can blow up right now). Shabazz Muhammad is still in limbo mode: if he produces, keep him; if not, move on him along. (Pekovic and Muhammad likely to become their trade deadline options)
Ricky Rubio still has 3 years left on his deal and I think the Wolves should utilize him rather than try to move him. Personally I like Ricky Rubio, his offensive deficiencies could be mitigated by adding a solid scorer in Buddy Hield, a reliable wing player in Luol Deng and a move toward a fast break offense cued by upgraded defense. I kinda like a pass-first PG to go with all these youngsters and if Thibs can crank up the D, the offense will either flow better or become less important. That said, Rubio is the most likely part of the program to falter and become untenable. If Rubio works, Wolves will improve greatly; if Rubio doesn't work, they become desperate to trade him and flail badly (not likely but could happen).
Right now the projected starting lineup would probably be: C Dieng, PF Towns, SF Wiggins, SG LaVine, PG Rubio with Muhammad, Pekovic, Payne, Bjelica, #5 pick and Jones off the bench (let's assume Garnett is the highest paid assistant coach in the league and not a proper rotation player, although I do expect him to start and get something in the 5-10 MPG range). Not bad, that team should already be in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West and that's if they do nothing at all. But they still have something like $30m in cap space and 4 roster spots to fill.
For GM Layden/Thibodeau there is one glaring loose tooth on that roster: Nikola Pekovic has 2yrs/$23.7m left on his deal. Pekovic is an injury-prone leftover from a different time in Wolves history, now he's still a solid scorer in the lane but hard to imagine the Wolves envision him in their future. If he can play, fine, he becomes another helpful veteran off the bench; but if he can't, they have to figure out how to move him (can he be traded to Italy or Spain? China in the mix for that contract?). As for the #5 pick, I think Buddy Hield is perfect for the Wolves and could be there at #5: a 5th year senior, he's a little more mature and should be ready to step in and be a solid scorer right away, more youth movement but hopefully he can fast track to the rest of the crew.
Coaching-wise Thib's first duty is also clear: turn LaVine and Payne into defensive standouts and, man, the Wolves instantly vault into top 5 in the West (where they might be vaulting anyway). This team is already pretty good, for the most part Thibs just needs to mold them into shape. But the here-and-now improvement that Thibs could produce would be making LaVine a more reliable player (I'd start with his D, improve that and you can live with his inconsistent offense) and getting something out of Payne (telling you, man, I haven't given up on the dude, if Thibs can reach him, then the Wolves can blow up right now). Shabazz Muhammad is still in limbo mode: if he produces, keep him; if not, move on him along. (Pekovic and Muhammad likely to become their trade deadline options)
Ricky Rubio still has 3 years left on his deal and I think the Wolves should utilize him rather than try to move him. Personally I like Ricky Rubio, his offensive deficiencies could be mitigated by adding a solid scorer in Buddy Hield, a reliable wing player in Luol Deng and a move toward a fast break offense cued by upgraded defense. I kinda like a pass-first PG to go with all these youngsters and if Thibs can crank up the D, the offense will either flow better or become less important. That said, Rubio is the most likely part of the program to falter and become untenable. If Rubio works, Wolves will improve greatly; if Rubio doesn't work, they become desperate to trade him and flail badly (not likely but could happen).
Future looks really, really, really good for the Wolves right now. Not everything is perfect but the roster is already well-structured, the lineup is solid and the family vibe in Minneapolis is palpable and lovable. I suggest finding some scoring in #5, turn up the defense in practice and aim for a reliable smart vets to round out the rotation. I think the Wolves should easily be a playoff team and with the right luck could have some home court advantage next post-season. Looking forward to seeing where the Wolves go next year.
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Coaching Moves and Rumors
Knicks hire Jeff Hornacek. Surprise move as he was the one guy that never got mentioned in relation to NYK. I always liked Hornacek, thought he had one really great year in Phoenix (can't remember a squad that had so many Most Improved and Comeback candidates). The Suns experienced troubles after that but those troubles were zero percent Hornacek's fault, thought he handled himself as well as could be expected considering how badly the front office mangled things. Apparently Phil Jax was impressed with Hornacek's Jerry Sloan connection enough to give up his absurd triangle offense demands (dude, quit trying to make it a thing, it's not a thing, it's not coming back) and embrace some kind of two-guard scheme that Hornacek had back in the day with Bledsoe and Dragic (I just posted about NYK trading for Bledsoe, Dragic could be had too, no?). The Knicks will be active, they gots money for big splashy names. No way they get Durant, I can see them ending up with some combination of: Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson, Mike Conley, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Nerlens Noel, Greg Monroe. With or without Carmelo.
Magic hire Frank Vogel. I like Vogel, I think he's a good coaching, I think the Magic got a nice bunch of kids for him to work with. There's no Paul George in there but Aaron Gordon seems ready to become a bright shining star. Oladipo and Payton are sure handed guards, Vucevic is a beastly inside presence, that's a nice nucleus to start with. Throw in picks #11 and #41 and they might even have some young depth to go with a free agent pickup or two. I haven't been impressed with the Magic front office lately but hiring Vogel is a good sign. I'm back on board on the Magic youth movement now that Vogel has arrived.
Rockets might hire Mike D'antoni. Perhaps I'm jumping the gun on this but I think its a good fit if only because Harden in a D'antoni offense should be fun to watch. The Rockets will be shedding a lot of players this summer (Dwight Howard seems pretty gone to me, I think Terrence Jones, Josh Smiff, Motiejunas are probably gone, Jason Terry and maybe Corey Brewer moving on. But no matter happens, I guarantee James Harden will be handling the ball like 60% of the time, D'antoni knows that going in so I'm sure he's got a plan. This might not happen but if the Rockets do hire D'antoni I'd be pretty cool with it, it instantly makes the Rockets more interesting to watch next year.
Barcelona interested in David Blatt. There are tales that Blatt was quick to trumpet his European and International accomplishments when chided about being the new guy in the NBA, as if he'd been places and done stuff. I'm assuming, then, that Blatt knows better than anybody that Barcelona is a really good gig and if they want him, he should go. After getting unceremoniously dumped by Lebron just a coupla months ago (seems like ages since Blatt's been around), one can imagine that he has something to prove, that he really wants to coach in the NBA and be good at it. But what's he gonna do with the mash unit that is the Memphis Grizzlies? And if Lebron didn't love him, how's he gonna do in Houston with James Harden (I'm guessing not good)? Those are the last two NBA gigs left, so unless he wants to sit on Popovich's bench or Luke Walton's, I don't really see anything sexier than Barcelona within his grasp. He should go to Europe, live in a beautiful city, be the big dog, win a few more titles, the NBA will still be around--dude, Brooklyn will always be there as a reliably mediocre team with an overanxious trigger happy front office, there's always a chance in the NBA!
Magic hire Frank Vogel. I like Vogel, I think he's a good coaching, I think the Magic got a nice bunch of kids for him to work with. There's no Paul George in there but Aaron Gordon seems ready to become a bright shining star. Oladipo and Payton are sure handed guards, Vucevic is a beastly inside presence, that's a nice nucleus to start with. Throw in picks #11 and #41 and they might even have some young depth to go with a free agent pickup or two. I haven't been impressed with the Magic front office lately but hiring Vogel is a good sign. I'm back on board on the Magic youth movement now that Vogel has arrived.
Rockets might hire Mike D'antoni. Perhaps I'm jumping the gun on this but I think its a good fit if only because Harden in a D'antoni offense should be fun to watch. The Rockets will be shedding a lot of players this summer (Dwight Howard seems pretty gone to me, I think Terrence Jones, Josh Smiff, Motiejunas are probably gone, Jason Terry and maybe Corey Brewer moving on. But no matter happens, I guarantee James Harden will be handling the ball like 60% of the time, D'antoni knows that going in so I'm sure he's got a plan. This might not happen but if the Rockets do hire D'antoni I'd be pretty cool with it, it instantly makes the Rockets more interesting to watch next year.
Barcelona interested in David Blatt. There are tales that Blatt was quick to trumpet his European and International accomplishments when chided about being the new guy in the NBA, as if he'd been places and done stuff. I'm assuming, then, that Blatt knows better than anybody that Barcelona is a really good gig and if they want him, he should go. After getting unceremoniously dumped by Lebron just a coupla months ago (seems like ages since Blatt's been around), one can imagine that he has something to prove, that he really wants to coach in the NBA and be good at it. But what's he gonna do with the mash unit that is the Memphis Grizzlies? And if Lebron didn't love him, how's he gonna do in Houston with James Harden (I'm guessing not good)? Those are the last two NBA gigs left, so unless he wants to sit on Popovich's bench or Luke Walton's, I don't really see anything sexier than Barcelona within his grasp. He should go to Europe, live in a beautiful city, be the big dog, win a few more titles, the NBA will still be around--dude, Brooklyn will always be there as a reliably mediocre team with an overanxious trigger happy front office, there's always a chance in the NBA!
Pointless Trade Idea
Pelicans get Carmelo Anthony ($24.6 next year); Suns get Tyreke Evans (1yr/$11.6m), the #6 pick; Knicks get Eric Bledsoe ($14m next year), Jrue Holiday (1yr/$11.2m), the #13 pick
With the emergence of Devin Booker at the end of last year, the Suns are back in the PG logjam they had with Dragic and Isiah, which means they're gonna trade either Bledsoe or Knight. Packaging him with the #13 pick gives them a chance to move up in the draft and take a flyer on the last year of Tyreke's contract. If Tyreke works, bonus, but realistically they're just trying to move on from Bledsoe's big contract. They already have #4, #28 and #34 in this draft, they're invested, might as well try to redeem Bledsoe for the #6, as well. This would give them a lineup of Knight, Booker, Tucker, Warren and Chandler with Evans, Len, Goodwin, #4 and #6 off the bench. That team is likely to scuffle but by next summer they'd be able to move on from Tucker, Goodwin, perhaps Chandler's deal becomes more trade-able and they'd be able to make moves in free agency. (Moving #28 for a 2017 1st rounder is something that might consider as well)
The Knicks move on from their biggest contract and most famous player, it'd be a media maelstrom. But with the hiring of Jeff Hornacek, Bledsoe and Holiday would give them two guards to try their new two-guard offense. If it works, it could be electric and if Porzingas continues to grow, the insufferable Knick fans will at least have something to cheer about. Bledsoe is signed and becomes their guy of the future to go with Porzingas, while Holiday is in a contract year and should be looking to have a career year. Throwing in the #13 pick gets them back in the draft (last year's #13 was Devin Booker, so good things can happen). They'd have a starting five of Holiday, Bledsoe, Williams, Porzingas and Lopez with Grant, Wroten, O'Quinn, and #13 off the bench. Yeah, they still need to make moves this summer but bringing back Bledsoe, Holiday and #13 for Melo re-shapes the team for the next coupla years.
The Pelicans would buy in long term with the Melo-AD tandem. Can they play together? Yeah, I think they'd be just fine. This move would give them each the best player they've ever played with, that's got to be exciting, right? Getting rid of Evans is worth losing the #6 pick and they'd be looking to build around free agency rather than the draft anyway. Salary wise they'd be bringing back a coupla million but they'd still have plenty to go forth into the free agency market (hey, Mike Conley, wanna play with Davis and Melo?). As of now their guard situation is simply untenable, so projecting a starting five for the Pelicans is an unnecessary task--if they bring back what they've got now, then poor Anthony Davis ain't ever making the playoffs again! Giving Evans is a gift, giving up Holiday and #6 for three more years of Carmelo is an exciting prospect.
With the emergence of Devin Booker at the end of last year, the Suns are back in the PG logjam they had with Dragic and Isiah, which means they're gonna trade either Bledsoe or Knight. Packaging him with the #13 pick gives them a chance to move up in the draft and take a flyer on the last year of Tyreke's contract. If Tyreke works, bonus, but realistically they're just trying to move on from Bledsoe's big contract. They already have #4, #28 and #34 in this draft, they're invested, might as well try to redeem Bledsoe for the #6, as well. This would give them a lineup of Knight, Booker, Tucker, Warren and Chandler with Evans, Len, Goodwin, #4 and #6 off the bench. That team is likely to scuffle but by next summer they'd be able to move on from Tucker, Goodwin, perhaps Chandler's deal becomes more trade-able and they'd be able to make moves in free agency. (Moving #28 for a 2017 1st rounder is something that might consider as well)
The Knicks move on from their biggest contract and most famous player, it'd be a media maelstrom. But with the hiring of Jeff Hornacek, Bledsoe and Holiday would give them two guards to try their new two-guard offense. If it works, it could be electric and if Porzingas continues to grow, the insufferable Knick fans will at least have something to cheer about. Bledsoe is signed and becomes their guy of the future to go with Porzingas, while Holiday is in a contract year and should be looking to have a career year. Throwing in the #13 pick gets them back in the draft (last year's #13 was Devin Booker, so good things can happen). They'd have a starting five of Holiday, Bledsoe, Williams, Porzingas and Lopez with Grant, Wroten, O'Quinn, and #13 off the bench. Yeah, they still need to make moves this summer but bringing back Bledsoe, Holiday and #13 for Melo re-shapes the team for the next coupla years.
The Pelicans would buy in long term with the Melo-AD tandem. Can they play together? Yeah, I think they'd be just fine. This move would give them each the best player they've ever played with, that's got to be exciting, right? Getting rid of Evans is worth losing the #6 pick and they'd be looking to build around free agency rather than the draft anyway. Salary wise they'd be bringing back a coupla million but they'd still have plenty to go forth into the free agency market (hey, Mike Conley, wanna play with Davis and Melo?). As of now their guard situation is simply untenable, so projecting a starting five for the Pelicans is an unnecessary task--if they bring back what they've got now, then poor Anthony Davis ain't ever making the playoffs again! Giving Evans is a gift, giving up Holiday and #6 for three more years of Carmelo is an exciting prospect.
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
NBA Bric-a-brac
Pacers hire Nate McMillan. My guess is that Vogel wanted a big time raise and Bird didn't feel like Vogel was the guy he wanted to give big money to, figuring there are lots of coaches (that would take less money) that would love to coach Paul George and could finish 6th in the East. A team built around Paul George is a good place for any coach to start and McMillan is a legit NBA coach. Back in the day it was McMillan's coaching that helped Seattle lay the groundwork for drafting Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka. (Ha!) If he could lure Durant and Westbrook to Indy (though preferably not in the way he brought them to OKC), that'd be worth the big money.
Blazers extend Coach Terry Stotts (3 yrs/$15m, I think). Good move. I think Stotts (along with Brad Stevens) is the premiere coach for taking B talent and getting A- results. That's a legit skill and he's got it. He did just as well with the Aldridge/Matthews/Lopez/Batum lineup as he did with their lower priced replacements. He has risen a great deal in my estimation over the last coupla years, I'm beginning to think he's one of the best coaches in the league.
Karl-Anthony Towns wins Rookie of the Year. Yup, easy call. Might see the Wolves back at this ceremony again next year. Whoever they pick up on draft night will have a great launching pad into the league. (I think Buddy Hield is their ideal; if they get the #1 pick, they oughta consider trading down for Hield)
Wow! The draft lottery ended exactly the way it was supposed to (I'm guessing that's never happened before): 1 Sixers, 2 Lakers, 3 Celtics, 4 Suns, 5 Wolves, 6 Pelicans, 7 Nuggets, 8 Kings, 9 Raptors, 10 Bucks, 11 Magic, 12 Jazz, 13 Suns, 14 Bulls
Blazers extend Coach Terry Stotts (3 yrs/$15m, I think). Good move. I think Stotts (along with Brad Stevens) is the premiere coach for taking B talent and getting A- results. That's a legit skill and he's got it. He did just as well with the Aldridge/Matthews/Lopez/Batum lineup as he did with their lower priced replacements. He has risen a great deal in my estimation over the last coupla years, I'm beginning to think he's one of the best coaches in the league.
Karl-Anthony Towns wins Rookie of the Year. Yup, easy call. Might see the Wolves back at this ceremony again next year. Whoever they pick up on draft night will have a great launching pad into the league. (I think Buddy Hield is their ideal; if they get the #1 pick, they oughta consider trading down for Hield)
Wow! The draft lottery ended exactly the way it was supposed to (I'm guessing that's never happened before): 1 Sixers, 2 Lakers, 3 Celtics, 4 Suns, 5 Wolves, 6 Pelicans, 7 Nuggets, 8 Kings, 9 Raptors, 10 Bucks, 11 Magic, 12 Jazz, 13 Suns, 14 Bulls
Monday, May 16, 2016
Playoff Predictions
East
Cavs in 4
If the Raptors play their best and get lucky, they could possibly steal a game back home in Toronto. Why is it that the conference finals reminds me of the Spurs-Grizzlies series? That shouldn't happen. The Raptors are going to be without Valenciunas at the beginning of the series, Lowry hasn't been right since he dinged his elbow, Derozan is playing hard but not shooting particularly well (feels like he's just killing time til he hits free agency), Caroll's offense should disappear as he focuses on marking Lebron, Ross has played well, should probably get more opportunity (he will next year when he's filling Derozan's lost minutes), Biyombo is playing with great spirit and energy but hard to imagine that he gets much done against Thompson, Joseph is a nice player off the bench but he isn't much more than that, Powell is nice (MVP of the Pacer series IMHO) but he's not gonna slow down Kyrie, Scola is...rested...can't remember the last time he played but he'll get some time in this series. The Raptors are a rambling wreck right now, dealing with injuries and struggling putting together a consistent game plan. I just don't see how the Raptors stop the Cavs attack and I don't see how they possibly score enough points to keep up. As long as nothing catastrophic happens, the Cavs are gonna fo-fo-fo through the East.
West
Thunder in 6
Keep an eye on the Thunder to sneak away with Game One. I thought the Thunder's performance against the Mavs was sloppy and ridiculous but against the Spurs they stuck to their guns, played hard and did it their way. They made the Spurs make decisions, they put it on the Spurs and they're gunning for the Warriors next. Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Kanter-Adams is suddenly a serious lineup driven by anger and grit. I think they can win. No one has really touched the Warriors this year: are they truly unbeatable or have they luckily avoided any real challenges? The Warriors kinda remind me of last year's (almost) undefeated Kentucky squad: that team didn't run everyone out the gym, they were deep enough to wear down most everyone the played...until the end when the level of competition got serious. Hey, man, Cavs and Thunder are both playing really good right now, the idea that the Warriors are just gonna sneeze them aside because they won 73 games during the regular season, I ain't buying it. I just watched a supposedly unbeatable team get beat (and it hurt). The Warriors are good and they can win in a variety of ways but I don't think they're overwhelmingly better than the Thunder. The Warriors have had time off, they weren't tested by the Rockets, the Blazers had some nice moments but not enough to win (Warriors over Blazers was a classic Serena performance), and Curry is still playing his way back into shape. Meanwhile the Thunder just whooped the team everyone penciled in to the Conference Finals. The Warriors haven't been punched in the face this year and the Thunder are gonna come in swinging. I think OKC starts off on a roll, the Warriors start tentative and OKC takes Game One. After that I'll take the home teams, which means OKC in 6.
Cavs in 4
If the Raptors play their best and get lucky, they could possibly steal a game back home in Toronto. Why is it that the conference finals reminds me of the Spurs-Grizzlies series? That shouldn't happen. The Raptors are going to be without Valenciunas at the beginning of the series, Lowry hasn't been right since he dinged his elbow, Derozan is playing hard but not shooting particularly well (feels like he's just killing time til he hits free agency), Caroll's offense should disappear as he focuses on marking Lebron, Ross has played well, should probably get more opportunity (he will next year when he's filling Derozan's lost minutes), Biyombo is playing with great spirit and energy but hard to imagine that he gets much done against Thompson, Joseph is a nice player off the bench but he isn't much more than that, Powell is nice (MVP of the Pacer series IMHO) but he's not gonna slow down Kyrie, Scola is...rested...can't remember the last time he played but he'll get some time in this series. The Raptors are a rambling wreck right now, dealing with injuries and struggling putting together a consistent game plan. I just don't see how the Raptors stop the Cavs attack and I don't see how they possibly score enough points to keep up. As long as nothing catastrophic happens, the Cavs are gonna fo-fo-fo through the East.
West
Thunder in 6
Keep an eye on the Thunder to sneak away with Game One. I thought the Thunder's performance against the Mavs was sloppy and ridiculous but against the Spurs they stuck to their guns, played hard and did it their way. They made the Spurs make decisions, they put it on the Spurs and they're gunning for the Warriors next. Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Kanter-Adams is suddenly a serious lineup driven by anger and grit. I think they can win. No one has really touched the Warriors this year: are they truly unbeatable or have they luckily avoided any real challenges? The Warriors kinda remind me of last year's (almost) undefeated Kentucky squad: that team didn't run everyone out the gym, they were deep enough to wear down most everyone the played...until the end when the level of competition got serious. Hey, man, Cavs and Thunder are both playing really good right now, the idea that the Warriors are just gonna sneeze them aside because they won 73 games during the regular season, I ain't buying it. I just watched a supposedly unbeatable team get beat (and it hurt). The Warriors are good and they can win in a variety of ways but I don't think they're overwhelmingly better than the Thunder. The Warriors have had time off, they weren't tested by the Rockets, the Blazers had some nice moments but not enough to win (Warriors over Blazers was a classic Serena performance), and Curry is still playing his way back into shape. Meanwhile the Thunder just whooped the team everyone penciled in to the Conference Finals. The Warriors haven't been punched in the face this year and the Thunder are gonna come in swinging. I think OKC starts off on a roll, the Warriors start tentative and OKC takes Game One. After that I'll take the home teams, which means OKC in 6.
Sunday, May 15, 2016
Atlanta Hawks Observations
The Hawks went off last year but still got swept by the Cavs in the playoffs; this past season the Hawks were still good (but not as good) and still got swept by the Cavs in the playoffs. The initial murmurings were about 'blowing it up' and starting over. Could happen, but look at the roster for 2017-18: the only player signed as of now is Walter Tavares (for $1m) with a $21m player option for Paul Millsap (who could probably get more than that by then). Blowing it up? Uh, they're kinda already blown up: if they did nothing at all this team would just disintegrate on its own. So what exactly are they doing this off-season? Short answer: I have no idea. Two years down the line is such a mystery that their options for this summer are virtually infinite but whatever they do it must provide future salary certainty.
For next year they currently have: C Tiago Splitter, PF Paul Millsap, SF Thabo Sefolosha, SG Kyle Korver, PG Jeff Teague with a bench of Dennis Schroeder, Mike Scott, Tim Hardaway Jr, Lamar Patterson and the aforementioned Walter Tavares (remember: of all these players Tavares is the only one signed beyond next season). Largely bringing the band back together would mean Splitter taking up more of Horford's minutes and Sefolosha sliding into the Demarre Carroll--I mean, Kent Bazemore--spot. Schroeder, Scott and Hardaway reprise their roles in the rotation. That's what happens if they make no moves at all...which pretty much cannot happen...so this depth chart will invariably be updated by Nov 1.
Their current free agents: Al Horford (high priority, I would assume they'll throw everything they have at getting him signed long term), Kirk Hinrich (a candidate for retirement), Kent Bazemore (he's gonna get paid this summer, not sure if Atlanta will be his cash register of choice), Mike Muscala (I'd say very good chance he returns as he is cheap enough to bring back in case their more ambitious free agent choices fail to pan out), Khris Humphries (personally, I still think he's still got a coupla good years in him but with Splitter back from injury, I doubt he'll be back in Atlanta).
Atlanta, like everyone else in the league (except Cleveland), has no shortage of cap space. They are legitimate players for any and all free agents. As I said above, I assume #1 will be re-signing Horford. They chose not to deal him at the trade deadline (but also chose not extend him last summer) to maintain maximum flexibility but I still think he's an integral part of their identity and is still young enough to deserve the top dollar he's gonna get somewhere. After that its really hard to tell where they go: will they extend Teague and/Schroeder? If not, will they trade Teague and/or Schroeder? Will they pay Bazemore or let him walk? Do they think Sefolosha is a long term replacement for Bazemore (I'd say no but I also think Bazemore is kinda overhyped and not as irreplaceable as some may suggest)? Would they like to upgrade their bench depth or do they think Tavares will be ready to play next year? They still hold the rights to Barcelona's Marcus Eriksson and Olympiacos' Dimitrios Agravnis, are they fool's gold or trade bait or future roster taker-uppers?
They have #21, #44, #54 in the upcoming draft which would hopefully give them depth for the future. Those 2nd round picks are probably best served in looking for Euro players that could be brought back for 2017-18 (like Eriksson and Agravanis). Whereas with #21 they'd like to get a rotation player that could compete with Schroeder or Sefolosha or Splitter....but which one? C Diamond Stone, a guy that looked to me like a sure future top 5 pick just last summer in the under-17 FIBA World Cup, might still be there. Or maybe SG Caris Levert to take Korver's spot. Or maybe PG Tyler Ulis to give the Hawks even more options in trading Teague/Schroeder. Do they just take the best available or is there a strategy at work? Or might they dangle some of those picks to the Nets or Knicks, both apparently eager to get back into the draft; but, if they do trade those picks, what do they get? Are they looking for a starter or some bench depth or future picks? Who knows? This team is a total fucking black box!
I'd say their top flight free agent of choice ought to be SF Nicolas Batum: a defensive crazy man who can knock down 3's, currently plays for a division rival and would be the perfect replacement for Bazemore. (Unfortunately I kinda think Batum is gonna be the belle of the ball this summer, one of those dudes that is needed by 30 teams and may well collect the biggest paycheck of all) Rumor has it they want Dwight Howard, would they give him more then 2 years? Are they willing to let Horford walk (and then Millsap next summer) just to overpay Howard for 2-3 years? I dunno, they might. I would think SG/SF Gerald Henderson might be a nice player off the bench for them or maybe SF Jeff Green, both of whom should be reasonably affordable. But are they planning on re-signing Korver or Teague or Schroeder next summer? I dunno.
Salary certainty for the future, something they've avoided in recent years, is the real centerpiece of this summer's activities. Because the Hawks have no future, its hard to predict their present. If they don't take a hold of their future, it'll take hold of them.
For next year they currently have: C Tiago Splitter, PF Paul Millsap, SF Thabo Sefolosha, SG Kyle Korver, PG Jeff Teague with a bench of Dennis Schroeder, Mike Scott, Tim Hardaway Jr, Lamar Patterson and the aforementioned Walter Tavares (remember: of all these players Tavares is the only one signed beyond next season). Largely bringing the band back together would mean Splitter taking up more of Horford's minutes and Sefolosha sliding into the Demarre Carroll--I mean, Kent Bazemore--spot. Schroeder, Scott and Hardaway reprise their roles in the rotation. That's what happens if they make no moves at all...which pretty much cannot happen...so this depth chart will invariably be updated by Nov 1.
Their current free agents: Al Horford (high priority, I would assume they'll throw everything they have at getting him signed long term), Kirk Hinrich (a candidate for retirement), Kent Bazemore (he's gonna get paid this summer, not sure if Atlanta will be his cash register of choice), Mike Muscala (I'd say very good chance he returns as he is cheap enough to bring back in case their more ambitious free agent choices fail to pan out), Khris Humphries (personally, I still think he's still got a coupla good years in him but with Splitter back from injury, I doubt he'll be back in Atlanta).
Atlanta, like everyone else in the league (except Cleveland), has no shortage of cap space. They are legitimate players for any and all free agents. As I said above, I assume #1 will be re-signing Horford. They chose not to deal him at the trade deadline (but also chose not extend him last summer) to maintain maximum flexibility but I still think he's an integral part of their identity and is still young enough to deserve the top dollar he's gonna get somewhere. After that its really hard to tell where they go: will they extend Teague and/Schroeder? If not, will they trade Teague and/or Schroeder? Will they pay Bazemore or let him walk? Do they think Sefolosha is a long term replacement for Bazemore (I'd say no but I also think Bazemore is kinda overhyped and not as irreplaceable as some may suggest)? Would they like to upgrade their bench depth or do they think Tavares will be ready to play next year? They still hold the rights to Barcelona's Marcus Eriksson and Olympiacos' Dimitrios Agravnis, are they fool's gold or trade bait or future roster taker-uppers?
They have #21, #44, #54 in the upcoming draft which would hopefully give them depth for the future. Those 2nd round picks are probably best served in looking for Euro players that could be brought back for 2017-18 (like Eriksson and Agravanis). Whereas with #21 they'd like to get a rotation player that could compete with Schroeder or Sefolosha or Splitter....but which one? C Diamond Stone, a guy that looked to me like a sure future top 5 pick just last summer in the under-17 FIBA World Cup, might still be there. Or maybe SG Caris Levert to take Korver's spot. Or maybe PG Tyler Ulis to give the Hawks even more options in trading Teague/Schroeder. Do they just take the best available or is there a strategy at work? Or might they dangle some of those picks to the Nets or Knicks, both apparently eager to get back into the draft; but, if they do trade those picks, what do they get? Are they looking for a starter or some bench depth or future picks? Who knows? This team is a total fucking black box!
I'd say their top flight free agent of choice ought to be SF Nicolas Batum: a defensive crazy man who can knock down 3's, currently plays for a division rival and would be the perfect replacement for Bazemore. (Unfortunately I kinda think Batum is gonna be the belle of the ball this summer, one of those dudes that is needed by 30 teams and may well collect the biggest paycheck of all) Rumor has it they want Dwight Howard, would they give him more then 2 years? Are they willing to let Horford walk (and then Millsap next summer) just to overpay Howard for 2-3 years? I dunno, they might. I would think SG/SF Gerald Henderson might be a nice player off the bench for them or maybe SF Jeff Green, both of whom should be reasonably affordable. But are they planning on re-signing Korver or Teague or Schroeder next summer? I dunno.
Salary certainty for the future, something they've avoided in recent years, is the real centerpiece of this summer's activities. Because the Hawks have no future, its hard to predict their present. If they don't take a hold of their future, it'll take hold of them.
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Orlando Magic Observations
Coach Scott Skiles announced his resignation from the Magic this morning. I didn't anticipate this move, I'm calling it a shocker. Skiles is a well known prickly pear so unless he's got a gig lined up, I wouldn't be surprised if we never see him again (not big on cultivating warm relationships, they say). And where will the Magic go for their new head coach? Mark Jackson, Mike D'antoni, Frank Vogel, David Blatt, Jeff Hornacek appear to be the top coaching candidates out there but the Magic find themselves in competition with the Pacers, Knicks, Rockets and Grizzlies; Jeff Van Gundy, Lionel Hollins, JB Bickerstaff, Sam Mitchell, Randy Wittman, Mike Dunleavy and Vinny Del Negro are further down the wish list. Gotta wonder if the Magic think they can lure Jay Wright away from Villanova (I doubt it, but the Magic might give it a shot). I dunno, none of those guys look like a fit to me, right now I guess the Magic will promote from within.
(I had planned on doing a team by team analysis heading into the draft and free agency period, so I guess I'll start with the Magic)
The Magic are one of those up-and-coming young teams built around draft picks that struggle to win games in the fourth quarter but, by golly, they play hard and the fans are full of hope for the future. Or that's the narrative anyway. Frankly I'm not convinced. The moves they've made over the last few years have gone under the radar considering the heat and light that Sam Hinkie's Sixers and the similar youth movement in Minnesota have absorbed; but the Wolves have their compass firmly in hand and the Sixers are ready to embrace their future. The Magic, meanwhile, have yet to push forward in a meaningful way.
They sold low on Mo Harkless (just gave him away), Kyle O'Quinn (paid to have him leave town, then paid even more to weakly replace him), Tobias Harris (dumped him just weeks after going all in on him) and Channing Frye (moving him was fine, but did they have to give him away to the top team in their conference?). And what was the deal with claiming Chris Copeland off waivers and then cutting him the next day? (I'm not a cap expert, perhaps it was necessary in some roster sense but not any sense that I know of) Uh...seems like Sam Hinkie could've done all this, no? And now parting ways with Coach Skiles after one mediocre year is something that should be kinda distressing (and it feels like ugly details are on the way).
As of now, next year's starting five looks like: C Nikola Vucevic, PF Aaron Gordon, SF Mario Hezonja, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Elfrid Payton with F Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. (Is that better than the Sixers? Probably but not definitely) The currently signed bench players are all guards: CJ Watson, Shabazz Napier, Devyn Marble.
They've drafted well lately (Aaron Gordon could be the next big thing) and they are currently sitting on #11,#41,#47 in the coming draft. Otherwise, it doesn't feel like they've done much else to build up their infrastructure, on the court or off. That starting lineup is not gonna win games next year and the bench is just non-existent.
The players they'll be giving up to free agency are: PG Brandon Jennings (absolutely will not be coming back), PF Andrew Nicholson (probably not a high priority for the Magic), SG Evan Fournier (could be back but I'm not sure), C Dwayne Dedmon (probably not a high priority for the Magic). The Magic has tons of cap room, they could easily bring in 2 or maybe even 3 max free agents but Orlando has never had success doing that in the past (okay, well, that one year when they got McGrady and Grant Hill), so what is the plan? And now they don't have a coach.
Who are the free agents they could be after? My guess: Chandler Parsons (Mavs), Al Horford (Hawks), Dwight Howard (Rockets) will be the big tickets in their sights. I guess Nicholson and Dedmon would be available if they swing and miss on other big men (maybe Brandon Bass, too). And I'm not sure whether they're into keeping Evan Fournier considering Mario Hezonja will be ready fairly soon; signing Fournier turns them both into instant trade bait. And, yeah, I would expect them to dangle Vucevic and #11 (and Fournier in a sign and trade?) in hopes of luring Cousins out of Sacramento.
I hate to be that guy but...this team is a mess! At least the Sixers are starting to have stuff to build around, the Magic currently feature Ersan Ilyasova as their 6th Man! What kind of youth movement is that? And, okay, I'll admit: Shabazz Napier is perhaps my LEAST favorite player in the league (man, every time I saw him play last year I instantly wondered, 'Who got hurt? Why is he playing?') and he is currently the prize of their bench. The Magic need to hit big in free agency--BIG!--and that's something Orlando has not had much luck with in the past. And I'm not sure bringing back Dwight Howard counts as big. If they could snag Cousins they instantly become the Sacramento of the East but they would still have plenty of cap space for free agents. Does Boogie, no coach and a mediocre youth movement entice any big stars out there? I'm not feeling it.
I like Vucevic, think he's a really underrated big man. I believe Gordon could develop into a serious baller. Oladipo, Payton and Hezonja have shown flashes of being competent NBA players. Beyond that, I don't see much of anything there. And the fact that this is after several years of youth movement planning, I gotta say I am wildly underwhelmed. Sam Hinkie sucked up all the criticism, I guess, because I think the general consensus is that Orlando is a team on the up. It looks to me like a very slow ascent.
(I had planned on doing a team by team analysis heading into the draft and free agency period, so I guess I'll start with the Magic)
The Magic are one of those up-and-coming young teams built around draft picks that struggle to win games in the fourth quarter but, by golly, they play hard and the fans are full of hope for the future. Or that's the narrative anyway. Frankly I'm not convinced. The moves they've made over the last few years have gone under the radar considering the heat and light that Sam Hinkie's Sixers and the similar youth movement in Minnesota have absorbed; but the Wolves have their compass firmly in hand and the Sixers are ready to embrace their future. The Magic, meanwhile, have yet to push forward in a meaningful way.
They sold low on Mo Harkless (just gave him away), Kyle O'Quinn (paid to have him leave town, then paid even more to weakly replace him), Tobias Harris (dumped him just weeks after going all in on him) and Channing Frye (moving him was fine, but did they have to give him away to the top team in their conference?). And what was the deal with claiming Chris Copeland off waivers and then cutting him the next day? (I'm not a cap expert, perhaps it was necessary in some roster sense but not any sense that I know of) Uh...seems like Sam Hinkie could've done all this, no? And now parting ways with Coach Skiles after one mediocre year is something that should be kinda distressing (and it feels like ugly details are on the way).
As of now, next year's starting five looks like: C Nikola Vucevic, PF Aaron Gordon, SF Mario Hezonja, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Elfrid Payton with F Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. (Is that better than the Sixers? Probably but not definitely) The currently signed bench players are all guards: CJ Watson, Shabazz Napier, Devyn Marble.
They've drafted well lately (Aaron Gordon could be the next big thing) and they are currently sitting on #11,#41,#47 in the coming draft. Otherwise, it doesn't feel like they've done much else to build up their infrastructure, on the court or off. That starting lineup is not gonna win games next year and the bench is just non-existent.
The players they'll be giving up to free agency are: PG Brandon Jennings (absolutely will not be coming back), PF Andrew Nicholson (probably not a high priority for the Magic), SG Evan Fournier (could be back but I'm not sure), C Dwayne Dedmon (probably not a high priority for the Magic). The Magic has tons of cap room, they could easily bring in 2 or maybe even 3 max free agents but Orlando has never had success doing that in the past (okay, well, that one year when they got McGrady and Grant Hill), so what is the plan? And now they don't have a coach.
Who are the free agents they could be after? My guess: Chandler Parsons (Mavs), Al Horford (Hawks), Dwight Howard (Rockets) will be the big tickets in their sights. I guess Nicholson and Dedmon would be available if they swing and miss on other big men (maybe Brandon Bass, too). And I'm not sure whether they're into keeping Evan Fournier considering Mario Hezonja will be ready fairly soon; signing Fournier turns them both into instant trade bait. And, yeah, I would expect them to dangle Vucevic and #11 (and Fournier in a sign and trade?) in hopes of luring Cousins out of Sacramento.
I hate to be that guy but...this team is a mess! At least the Sixers are starting to have stuff to build around, the Magic currently feature Ersan Ilyasova as their 6th Man! What kind of youth movement is that? And, okay, I'll admit: Shabazz Napier is perhaps my LEAST favorite player in the league (man, every time I saw him play last year I instantly wondered, 'Who got hurt? Why is he playing?') and he is currently the prize of their bench. The Magic need to hit big in free agency--BIG!--and that's something Orlando has not had much luck with in the past. And I'm not sure bringing back Dwight Howard counts as big. If they could snag Cousins they instantly become the Sacramento of the East but they would still have plenty of cap space for free agents. Does Boogie, no coach and a mediocre youth movement entice any big stars out there? I'm not feeling it.
I like Vucevic, think he's a really underrated big man. I believe Gordon could develop into a serious baller. Oladipo, Payton and Hezonja have shown flashes of being competent NBA players. Beyond that, I don't see much of anything there. And the fact that this is after several years of youth movement planning, I gotta say I am wildly underwhelmed. Sam Hinkie sucked up all the criticism, I guess, because I think the general consensus is that Orlando is a team on the up. It looks to me like a very slow ascent.
Spurs-Thunder Game Six
Oh, man, today is one of those very rare days when I wish I had cable. There are so few things that the television offers than I need to have right then and there. Either I find a friend (too many poor life choices for that to happen), go to a sports bar (among the worst experiences American culture has to offer) or sit around and wait for the replay (which gets harder and harder as the playoffs wear on).
Game One was a walkover, Thunder never showed up and the game was over pronto. Game Two ended with one of the crazier plays I've ever seen. Games Three, Four and Five were back and forth affairs where no one got the upper hand til the final moments (Thunder flailed down the stretch in three, the Spurs flailed down the stretch in Four and Five). If the Spurs don't show out tonight, this could be the end of an era, if the Thunder don't this could be the end of their era, too. Tonight's game could be extremely pivotal for the future of the Western Conference.
People are lamenting the decline of Tim Duncan, even suggesting this could be the end of his career. After 18 years of being the Man, this year Duncan moved to the supporting cast and his performance in this series has been....well, let's say invisible. Look, man, he's developed a lot of habits over the years and to be moved to another position isn't easy. This is akin to a shortstop moving over to 2nd base: he can still play but he's got to think backwards at all times, not exactly the best position for his success. As for his retirement, for years now I've thought that at the end of each season Tim looks around and thinks, 'Can I win a championship with this bunch of guys?' As long as the answer is 'yes', he'll keep coming back. But this season the calculus could be different: 'Can these guys win a championship with me?' If the answer is 'no', then Duncan will ride off into the sunset; but I don't think he'll reach that conclusion. Indeed, the worse he plays I suspect the more inspired he is to return. Granted, next year he'll be performing a role similar to what KG is doing in Minnesota these days, but at least he'll have a real understanding of what that role is. I think if he comes back next year he will be more relaxed and he'll know what he has to do to contribute whereas now he's still figuring that out (also he'll know its his last year). I don't think its fair to say he's under performing, I think its more accurate to say we no longer know what his performance is supposed to be. Right now he reminds me of John Wayne in She Wore a Yellow Ribbon: not ready to go, not ready to stay either, caught in the lurch of transition.
Tony Parker, too, is going through some changes. For years he's been running the offense, flinging the ball around and looking to get his mid-range jumper. Now he has to readjust to Aldridge's ball stopping game and Kawhi's need to go me-first at times (I don't mean to sound pejorative, they're both great players and this is how they play). In Game Three Parker was successful at taking what the defense gave him and knocked down open looks, a strategy which disappeared down the stretch in Game Five. He used to lead but now he has to wait for Kawhi to establish himself and for Aldridge to find his proper spot. Parker can still be a top quality PG but it won't be the PG he's been for all these years. And when he struggles, we think he's done but I don't think that's quite accurate.
Manu Ginobli looks closer to done to me than the others. If he comes back for one more year, he couldn't play more than 10-15MPG at best and even then he'd have to be more of a shooter and less of a distributor. He'll be in assistant coach mode rather than get-it-done mode. That's just what is available to him now and if he wants to be an asst in this game, he'll be back.
Which brings me to the Spur that I think has been the real disappointment of this series: Boris Diaw. He's a cerebral player, crafty on offense, sticky on defense and just generally in the right place at the right time. Regardless of what's going on, his game should be pretty consistent; instead, he looks confused out there. Bringing in Aldridge has thrown the machine out of whack: the center of the offense has shifted and the supporting cast has an array of new expectations. They're all smart, capable players and they'll figure it out...over time. But the time is up, they don't get to lose any more games in their experimentation. The last 4 games have been close til the end, the crafty veterans can still get it done. Holding back Durant and Westbrook is like catching a falling knife and the machine can't wobble any more; Diaw is the one that needs to keep everyone in tune.
It seems like I'm condemning Lamarcus Aldridge. Not at all! Dude's a badass! That said, his presence alters the gameplan; over the course of the 82 game season, more often than not the team was able to find a way but in the playoffs, everything tightens up and we're seeing that the Spurs machine isn't firing at its best right now. In the first two games, Aldridge pretty much had his way (with no help at all from the refs). Since then he's been off his game and I have a strange word of coaching advice: do NOT work for your shot. Do NOT work! Dude, you're seven feet tall, you can knock down 15 footers all day and no one can guard you. Just do that! Quit trying to move, don't overthink it, don't show off and tune out your teammates. Get to your spot, demand the ball and shoot your patented uncontestable jumpers. (If that don't work....I can't help ya)
Kawhi Leonard is such a monster out there. But marking Durant night after night is taking its toll: Leonard's 3FG% is under 30%, he's not getting to the FT line as often as his counterpart and his asst:to (17:11) is fine but not exactly MVP-ish. His D is still top quality but offensively the Spurs all need to be more precise. The Spurs are getting killed on the boards: Kanter-Westbrook-Adams have 46 offensive rebounds while the Spurs have 37 meaning Kawhi needs to make the shots he takes.
David West....I love the dude and he is younger and cheaper than Duncan,..but...he's the one that's got to go. He's the one that keeps Duncan from falling into the proper support role for Aldridge and gets between how Diaw and Ginobli support Parker and Kawhi. Before Aldridge got there, West's contribution would be perfect, just the thing the pre-Aldridge Spurs needed. But now, he clogs the middle without getting enough rebounds and pushes everyone else into the roles they haven't yet conformed to. With the Pacers I thought he was the true MVP of the team and I think he's totally capable of being that lock down (on and off the court) presence every team needs....but the Spurs don't need it. West and Duncan have to figure out how to co-exist.
Danny Green either shoots the lights out and he fades badly. Also, I feel that more than anyone his hard work is not getting rewarded: notice how many times he almost gets the steal, almost gets the rebound, almost makes the defensive stop. He's not playing badly, he's just not getting lucky out there. Patty Mills, too, is playing hard but not quite making the difference he wishes he could.
As for the Thunder, well, everybody is playing their own game. Adams is Adams, Durant is looking very Durant, Kanter is playing the way Kanter plays (incredibly efficient shooter, underrated rebounder and better D than usual), Roberson is pitching in and not trying to do too much; even Waiters is playing really solid D and not shooting his team out of games. Ibaka has been a nice contributor (overly maligned these days, I think) and while he's not the monster presence that he has been in the past, he's still knocking down shots and playing good D. (They still haven't figured out what to do with Cameron Payne, which feels like an opportunity missed, but he's a rookie on a team of badasses, perhaps its just as well he gets a good view of the action)
As for Westbrook, man, the good Westbrook is great and the bad Westbrook is awful. The easy commentary is that he needs to shoot less or stop being so aggressive but I would suggest...uh, no. He's not a bad passer....but he makes bad passes. The idea that he's gonna pass better than he shoots....uhhhh....not sure that's true. The best Coach Donovan can hope for is to soften some of those hard edges (take it easy on the 3's, Russ, okay?) but, dude, you've just gotta let Russ be Russ and live with the results.
It felt like in Game Five, the refs came back to calling it tighter which should've helped the Spurs...but it didn't. Adjusting to the refs is something you would expect the veteran outfit with the hall of fame coach to do better...but the Spurs are the transition team while OKC is the squad with the clear co-leaders and all the momentum. OKC is the team that knows who it is and just has to go out and play while the Spurs are the team are figuring it out as they go.
Just because I love basketball, I'll take the Spurs to win tonight. But OKC is quite capable of vanquishing the Spurs (and giving the Warriors a severe kick to the shins). Could go either way. And I'll just have to avoid the internet til its over. :(
Game One was a walkover, Thunder never showed up and the game was over pronto. Game Two ended with one of the crazier plays I've ever seen. Games Three, Four and Five were back and forth affairs where no one got the upper hand til the final moments (Thunder flailed down the stretch in three, the Spurs flailed down the stretch in Four and Five). If the Spurs don't show out tonight, this could be the end of an era, if the Thunder don't this could be the end of their era, too. Tonight's game could be extremely pivotal for the future of the Western Conference.
People are lamenting the decline of Tim Duncan, even suggesting this could be the end of his career. After 18 years of being the Man, this year Duncan moved to the supporting cast and his performance in this series has been....well, let's say invisible. Look, man, he's developed a lot of habits over the years and to be moved to another position isn't easy. This is akin to a shortstop moving over to 2nd base: he can still play but he's got to think backwards at all times, not exactly the best position for his success. As for his retirement, for years now I've thought that at the end of each season Tim looks around and thinks, 'Can I win a championship with this bunch of guys?' As long as the answer is 'yes', he'll keep coming back. But this season the calculus could be different: 'Can these guys win a championship with me?' If the answer is 'no', then Duncan will ride off into the sunset; but I don't think he'll reach that conclusion. Indeed, the worse he plays I suspect the more inspired he is to return. Granted, next year he'll be performing a role similar to what KG is doing in Minnesota these days, but at least he'll have a real understanding of what that role is. I think if he comes back next year he will be more relaxed and he'll know what he has to do to contribute whereas now he's still figuring that out (also he'll know its his last year). I don't think its fair to say he's under performing, I think its more accurate to say we no longer know what his performance is supposed to be. Right now he reminds me of John Wayne in She Wore a Yellow Ribbon: not ready to go, not ready to stay either, caught in the lurch of transition.
Tony Parker, too, is going through some changes. For years he's been running the offense, flinging the ball around and looking to get his mid-range jumper. Now he has to readjust to Aldridge's ball stopping game and Kawhi's need to go me-first at times (I don't mean to sound pejorative, they're both great players and this is how they play). In Game Three Parker was successful at taking what the defense gave him and knocked down open looks, a strategy which disappeared down the stretch in Game Five. He used to lead but now he has to wait for Kawhi to establish himself and for Aldridge to find his proper spot. Parker can still be a top quality PG but it won't be the PG he's been for all these years. And when he struggles, we think he's done but I don't think that's quite accurate.
Manu Ginobli looks closer to done to me than the others. If he comes back for one more year, he couldn't play more than 10-15MPG at best and even then he'd have to be more of a shooter and less of a distributor. He'll be in assistant coach mode rather than get-it-done mode. That's just what is available to him now and if he wants to be an asst in this game, he'll be back.
Which brings me to the Spur that I think has been the real disappointment of this series: Boris Diaw. He's a cerebral player, crafty on offense, sticky on defense and just generally in the right place at the right time. Regardless of what's going on, his game should be pretty consistent; instead, he looks confused out there. Bringing in Aldridge has thrown the machine out of whack: the center of the offense has shifted and the supporting cast has an array of new expectations. They're all smart, capable players and they'll figure it out...over time. But the time is up, they don't get to lose any more games in their experimentation. The last 4 games have been close til the end, the crafty veterans can still get it done. Holding back Durant and Westbrook is like catching a falling knife and the machine can't wobble any more; Diaw is the one that needs to keep everyone in tune.
It seems like I'm condemning Lamarcus Aldridge. Not at all! Dude's a badass! That said, his presence alters the gameplan; over the course of the 82 game season, more often than not the team was able to find a way but in the playoffs, everything tightens up and we're seeing that the Spurs machine isn't firing at its best right now. In the first two games, Aldridge pretty much had his way (with no help at all from the refs). Since then he's been off his game and I have a strange word of coaching advice: do NOT work for your shot. Do NOT work! Dude, you're seven feet tall, you can knock down 15 footers all day and no one can guard you. Just do that! Quit trying to move, don't overthink it, don't show off and tune out your teammates. Get to your spot, demand the ball and shoot your patented uncontestable jumpers. (If that don't work....I can't help ya)
Kawhi Leonard is such a monster out there. But marking Durant night after night is taking its toll: Leonard's 3FG% is under 30%, he's not getting to the FT line as often as his counterpart and his asst:to (17:11) is fine but not exactly MVP-ish. His D is still top quality but offensively the Spurs all need to be more precise. The Spurs are getting killed on the boards: Kanter-Westbrook-Adams have 46 offensive rebounds while the Spurs have 37 meaning Kawhi needs to make the shots he takes.
David West....I love the dude and he is younger and cheaper than Duncan,..but...he's the one that's got to go. He's the one that keeps Duncan from falling into the proper support role for Aldridge and gets between how Diaw and Ginobli support Parker and Kawhi. Before Aldridge got there, West's contribution would be perfect, just the thing the pre-Aldridge Spurs needed. But now, he clogs the middle without getting enough rebounds and pushes everyone else into the roles they haven't yet conformed to. With the Pacers I thought he was the true MVP of the team and I think he's totally capable of being that lock down (on and off the court) presence every team needs....but the Spurs don't need it. West and Duncan have to figure out how to co-exist.
Danny Green either shoots the lights out and he fades badly. Also, I feel that more than anyone his hard work is not getting rewarded: notice how many times he almost gets the steal, almost gets the rebound, almost makes the defensive stop. He's not playing badly, he's just not getting lucky out there. Patty Mills, too, is playing hard but not quite making the difference he wishes he could.
As for the Thunder, well, everybody is playing their own game. Adams is Adams, Durant is looking very Durant, Kanter is playing the way Kanter plays (incredibly efficient shooter, underrated rebounder and better D than usual), Roberson is pitching in and not trying to do too much; even Waiters is playing really solid D and not shooting his team out of games. Ibaka has been a nice contributor (overly maligned these days, I think) and while he's not the monster presence that he has been in the past, he's still knocking down shots and playing good D. (They still haven't figured out what to do with Cameron Payne, which feels like an opportunity missed, but he's a rookie on a team of badasses, perhaps its just as well he gets a good view of the action)
As for Westbrook, man, the good Westbrook is great and the bad Westbrook is awful. The easy commentary is that he needs to shoot less or stop being so aggressive but I would suggest...uh, no. He's not a bad passer....but he makes bad passes. The idea that he's gonna pass better than he shoots....uhhhh....not sure that's true. The best Coach Donovan can hope for is to soften some of those hard edges (take it easy on the 3's, Russ, okay?) but, dude, you've just gotta let Russ be Russ and live with the results.
It felt like in Game Five, the refs came back to calling it tighter which should've helped the Spurs...but it didn't. Adjusting to the refs is something you would expect the veteran outfit with the hall of fame coach to do better...but the Spurs are the transition team while OKC is the squad with the clear co-leaders and all the momentum. OKC is the team that knows who it is and just has to go out and play while the Spurs are the team are figuring it out as they go.
Just because I love basketball, I'll take the Spurs to win tonight. But OKC is quite capable of vanquishing the Spurs (and giving the Warriors a severe kick to the shins). Could go either way. And I'll just have to avoid the internet til its over. :(
Monday, May 9, 2016
2016-17 Coach of the Year
The Kings announced the hiring of former Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger today (4yrs/$16m). Joerger is a solid coach, a good hire for the Kings. But I can't help wondering how much discussion there was during the hiring process about the future of Demarcus Cousins: like, uh, will he still be in Sac-town in the fall? The trade rumors have always been there but the swirl is starting to intensify and it really feels like Cousins might get moved this summer.
Throw in the decision of whether to re-sign Rondo and it's kinda hard to assess the team Coach Joerger will be coaching. With Cousins and Rondo I've got to think they'd be better than this year's 10th place finish in the West (but then again, they should've already been better than that...so....maybe not); but with a package of youngsters and cast-offs in place of Cousins and/or Rondo, Joerger might actually have more to work with. Slipping into rebuild mode would allow Joerger to put his stamp on the team and give King fans something to look forward to rather than calcifying their disappointment. Normally I would never suggest trading a great player...but in this case I think now is the time to move Cousins, blow it up and start over. Winning with Cousins doesn't seem realistic, perhaps winning without him is a better plan.
Throw in the decision of whether to re-sign Rondo and it's kinda hard to assess the team Coach Joerger will be coaching. With Cousins and Rondo I've got to think they'd be better than this year's 10th place finish in the West (but then again, they should've already been better than that...so....maybe not); but with a package of youngsters and cast-offs in place of Cousins and/or Rondo, Joerger might actually have more to work with. Slipping into rebuild mode would allow Joerger to put his stamp on the team and give King fans something to look forward to rather than calcifying their disappointment. Normally I would never suggest trading a great player...but in this case I think now is the time to move Cousins, blow it up and start over. Winning with Cousins doesn't seem realistic, perhaps winning without him is a better plan.
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Some playoff highlights so far
Spurs-Thunder, Game Two. This one folks'll be talking about for years to come. Commentator Chris Webber rants away about the 'foul' on Waiters but I suggest if the refs blow the whistle there, they call a technical foul on Ginobli, which they don't want to do which is why they let it play. That said, the Spurs had plenty of opportunities to score and they had a time out, they could've backed out of that play at any moment and reset. Personally, I don't have a problem with the refs on this play. It would've been weird no matter what happened, this way the refs can say the let the players play.
Kyle Lowry had a great season for the Raptors but did something to his elbow late in the season and hasn't been the same since. But in Game One against the Heat, he wills the Raptors to a comeback...but they still lost. This series is gonna be so weird: in round one the Heat annihilated the Hornets in games One, Two and Seven and utterly floundered around with no consistency in the other 4 games. Lowry is way off his game but he can still do stuff like this. This series is gonna be weird.
After the Cavs broke the record for made 3's in an NBA game (not just a playoff game, any game; that record isn't owned by Steph's Warriors but by Lebron's Cavs), commentator Charles Barkley suggested the Hawks needed to...well, cheap shot the Cavs. (I mean, isn't that what he's saying?) This was almost scandalous but we live in Donald Trump's America now so this kind of rhetoric doesn't even register any more. Personally I just think its the ramblings of an old guy from the old school that used to do things different back in his day. I grew up watching his day and I sorta know what he's talking about: they would've gotten mad, shoved each other a little bit, pretended to have a fight, refs would've busted in, fines would've been handed out....and then the better team would've dropkicked the worser team in the next game just like always (which, incidentally, is what happened in Game Three of this series).
....And leads to this: Teague with the frustration foul on Lebron late in Game Three. Watch Lebron: he plows into the audience, then you can see him think, 'Man, fuck Teague, I'm gonna kill that guy!' He rushes back onto the court then you can see him think, 'Oh damn, I almost crushed that guy's spine...better remember to send him an autographed picture or something.' Dangerous play by Teague, it happens, probably best not to make a big thing about it but he almost got the fan killed! Seems like this ought to be a bigger deal, especially in light of Barkley's comments. But, it won't be, Trump's America, yadda yadda yadda.
Kyle Lowry had a great season for the Raptors but did something to his elbow late in the season and hasn't been the same since. But in Game One against the Heat, he wills the Raptors to a comeback...but they still lost. This series is gonna be so weird: in round one the Heat annihilated the Hornets in games One, Two and Seven and utterly floundered around with no consistency in the other 4 games. Lowry is way off his game but he can still do stuff like this. This series is gonna be weird.
After the Cavs broke the record for made 3's in an NBA game (not just a playoff game, any game; that record isn't owned by Steph's Warriors but by Lebron's Cavs), commentator Charles Barkley suggested the Hawks needed to...well, cheap shot the Cavs. (I mean, isn't that what he's saying?) This was almost scandalous but we live in Donald Trump's America now so this kind of rhetoric doesn't even register any more. Personally I just think its the ramblings of an old guy from the old school that used to do things different back in his day. I grew up watching his day and I sorta know what he's talking about: they would've gotten mad, shoved each other a little bit, pretended to have a fight, refs would've busted in, fines would've been handed out....and then the better team would've dropkicked the worser team in the next game just like always (which, incidentally, is what happened in Game Three of this series).
....And leads to this: Teague with the frustration foul on Lebron late in Game Three. Watch Lebron: he plows into the audience, then you can see him think, 'Man, fuck Teague, I'm gonna kill that guy!' He rushes back onto the court then you can see him think, 'Oh damn, I almost crushed that guy's spine...better remember to send him an autographed picture or something.' Dangerous play by Teague, it happens, probably best not to make a big thing about it but he almost got the fan killed! Seems like this ought to be a bigger deal, especially in light of Barkley's comments. But, it won't be, Trump's America, yadda yadda yadda.
2016-17 Coach of the Year Update
The Grizzlies have fired Dave Joerger. I thought Joerger did a great job this year--maybe the best of his career. The natural deterioration of the team really took its toll as they fought crushing injuries all year long. They had no business making the playoffs but there they were, just like always. And consider: if they could've won a few more games down the stretch they might've matched up with the Clippers, who have since suffered their own crushing injuries. The Grizzlies might still be playing right now! Instead, their performance against the Spurs was one for the ages...of awful. None of that was Joerger's fault but firing the coach is easier than remaking the roster (which still needs to happen anyway).
Can Joerger coach the Kings? Maybe. He might be better taking a year off or getting a top flight assistant gig: those young Timberwolves could use some up close gritting and grinding, the Bucks need a dose of Grizzly in 'em, Scott Brooks might really appreciate his presence in DC and, of course, everyone who's anyone is gonna wanna be on Luke Walton's staff this summer.
As for the Grizzlies, I suspect you can pencil in Frank Vogel as their next coach though he's kind of a backwards choice: Vogel is a hard nosed D kinda coach which fits the Grizz mentality but perhaps they should be moving on from that strategy. Does Vogel perfect their style or does he prevent them from evolving? Whether they hire Vogel or not, the Grizzlies still need a wing scorer (and getting younger wouldn't hurt). But for now, tally the Grizzlies as another team still looking for next year's coach of the year candidate.
Can Joerger coach the Kings? Maybe. He might be better taking a year off or getting a top flight assistant gig: those young Timberwolves could use some up close gritting and grinding, the Bucks need a dose of Grizzly in 'em, Scott Brooks might really appreciate his presence in DC and, of course, everyone who's anyone is gonna wanna be on Luke Walton's staff this summer.
As for the Grizzlies, I suspect you can pencil in Frank Vogel as their next coach though he's kind of a backwards choice: Vogel is a hard nosed D kinda coach which fits the Grizz mentality but perhaps they should be moving on from that strategy. Does Vogel perfect their style or does he prevent them from evolving? Whether they hire Vogel or not, the Grizzlies still need a wing scorer (and getting younger wouldn't hurt). But for now, tally the Grizzlies as another team still looking for next year's coach of the year candidate.
Friday, May 6, 2016
NBA Playoffs Update
East
Cavs 2-0 Hawks
I thought the Hawks would get blown out in the first two games but then strike back in the two games at home...ehhh, not seeing it. The Cavs shot so well at home, Lebron is in complete control and the supporting cast is in order (even if Love isn't shooting all that well). Teague and Horford have to shoot with incredible efficiency, Kyle Korver has to show up and do something, Bazemore has to go above and beyond, and Teague has to be perfect on both ends of the court for the Hawks to even come close to taking a single game. I'll go ahead and pretend like the Hawks will take a game (but I doubt my own generosity) and say Cavs in 5.
Raptors 1-1 Heat
I still gotta say: the Raptors are the more talented team but with Kyle Lowry's elbow being all wonky, the Heat have a real shot. If/when Lowry finds his mojo, the Raptors should dust off the Heat but until then I'll stick with the Heat. The Heat struggle to score at times and if Wade or Dragic have an off night it becomes hard for them to find points (why is Joe Johnson playing so many minutes?); but Lowry shooting at career lows keeps them in the series. The Whiteside-Valenciunas battle is kinda fun. I like the Heat to win Games Three and Four and take it in 6.
West
Warriors 2-0 Blazers
I thought the Blazers had one crazy shooting night in them (probably Game Three) that would give them just enough to avoid the sweep. But after Game Two, I don't think I even see that happening. For three quarters the Blazers did more than just hang around, they set the pace. McCollum was wheeling and dealing, Harkless was knocking down 3's, the Warrior supporting cast couldn't really get a foothold. But you gotta beat the Warriors for four quarters. The Blazers flailed in the 4th and the final score didn't reflect how close most of the game had been. Can the Blazers do that one more time? Ehhh, I guess maybe, but I doubt it. I'll say Warriors in 4 (and I'd let Curry play in the closeout game but not until).
Spurs 1-1 Thunder
I've always said the Spurs are susceptible to one thing: a single great player having a statistically unlikely awesome night. And in Game Two that was Russell Westbrook, who was off his rocker for most of the night but when he was in the game he overpowered the Spurs D and got most all he wanted. (Steven Adams, too, was monstrous in the lane) Even though Aldridge went for 42, Kawhi never got going and Tony Parker in particular was barely present. The rest of the Thunder contributed not much, Coach Donovan looked more frustrated than happy about stealing a game in San Antonio, can Westbrook alone beat the Spurs? I doubt it but he can make it damned interesting. I said Spurs in 7 and I'll stick with that.
Cavs 2-0 Hawks
I thought the Hawks would get blown out in the first two games but then strike back in the two games at home...ehhh, not seeing it. The Cavs shot so well at home, Lebron is in complete control and the supporting cast is in order (even if Love isn't shooting all that well). Teague and Horford have to shoot with incredible efficiency, Kyle Korver has to show up and do something, Bazemore has to go above and beyond, and Teague has to be perfect on both ends of the court for the Hawks to even come close to taking a single game. I'll go ahead and pretend like the Hawks will take a game (but I doubt my own generosity) and say Cavs in 5.
Raptors 1-1 Heat
I still gotta say: the Raptors are the more talented team but with Kyle Lowry's elbow being all wonky, the Heat have a real shot. If/when Lowry finds his mojo, the Raptors should dust off the Heat but until then I'll stick with the Heat. The Heat struggle to score at times and if Wade or Dragic have an off night it becomes hard for them to find points (why is Joe Johnson playing so many minutes?); but Lowry shooting at career lows keeps them in the series. The Whiteside-Valenciunas battle is kinda fun. I like the Heat to win Games Three and Four and take it in 6.
West
Warriors 2-0 Blazers
I thought the Blazers had one crazy shooting night in them (probably Game Three) that would give them just enough to avoid the sweep. But after Game Two, I don't think I even see that happening. For three quarters the Blazers did more than just hang around, they set the pace. McCollum was wheeling and dealing, Harkless was knocking down 3's, the Warrior supporting cast couldn't really get a foothold. But you gotta beat the Warriors for four quarters. The Blazers flailed in the 4th and the final score didn't reflect how close most of the game had been. Can the Blazers do that one more time? Ehhh, I guess maybe, but I doubt it. I'll say Warriors in 4 (and I'd let Curry play in the closeout game but not until).
Spurs 1-1 Thunder
I've always said the Spurs are susceptible to one thing: a single great player having a statistically unlikely awesome night. And in Game Two that was Russell Westbrook, who was off his rocker for most of the night but when he was in the game he overpowered the Spurs D and got most all he wanted. (Steven Adams, too, was monstrous in the lane) Even though Aldridge went for 42, Kawhi never got going and Tony Parker in particular was barely present. The rest of the Thunder contributed not much, Coach Donovan looked more frustrated than happy about stealing a game in San Antonio, can Westbrook alone beat the Spurs? I doubt it but he can make it damned interesting. I said Spurs in 7 and I'll stick with that.
Thursday, May 5, 2016
2016-17 Coach of the Year
Frank Vogel is out in Indiana, a surprise to me though his status had been dangling for a while. A coupla rumors swirl together in Indy: supposedly Bird wants Kevin McHale to be the new Pacer coach and the Lakers reportedly want Paul George in return for their top 3 pick. The first rumor seems like a natural...until you remember that Bird and McHale always hated each other. As for the second, if the Pacers are in blow-up mode a top 3 pick would seem like a good place to start...until you remember that Larry Bird ain't waiting around on some rook to get it done. Personally, I don't see either of those things happening. Then again, I thought the Pacers were quite comfortable with Coach Vogel (hey, that Toronto series was winnable and the Pacers really should've done better in Games 3,5 & 7, guess that sealed it for Bird). (BONUS: Do you know what 'vogel' means in German?) I think Paul George remains the cornerstone of Pacer basketball and I wouldn't be surprised to see David Blatt end up as their next coach.
JB Bickerstaff is offically out in Houston, as the Rockets extend their search for a new head coach. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bickerstaff join Luke Walton's crew in LA. I'm guessing Frank Vogel just went to the top of their list. And word is Mike D'antoni will be interviewing for that spot.
Kevin McHale is reportedly out of contention for the Kings' job (probably best for his mental health). Patrick Ewing is the media's favorite for that gig, but we'll see if GM Vlade Divac agrees.
The Knicks seem to be leaning toward David Blatt, although they, too, might want to take a run at Vogel. Random aside: remember the Reform Party? Back in the 1990s kooky billionaire Ross Perot invented a 3rd party behind big money and potential muscle to nose their way into the Dem-Rep duopoly that runs America. In 2000 they fielded Pat Buchanon as their candidate. All Buchanon had to do was get 5% of the popular vote in order to secure matching funds (re: legitimacy) for the Reform Party going forward; instead, (I believe) Buchanon torpedoed the party to make sure that Perot's vision would go down in flames and the two party system would be preserved. (Yeah, perhaps I'm straining the conspiracy theory, the idea that Pat Buchanon was simply incapable of 5% of the vote despite his full efforts is not at all hard to believe) Anyway, that's what Phil Jackson's tenure with the Knicks feels like: he's collecting big paychecks to pretend like he's in charge when at best he's only sabotaged their chances of getting better in the near term. With the Lakers hiring Luke Walton, it is important to remember that after next season the Buss children seem destined for a power struggle (favoring Jeanie Buss) and Phil has an opt out clause with the Knicks: the band would seem to be ready to get back together next year right as the salary cap takes another huge jump (and with no Kobe around to hog any spotlight). In great conspiracy theory fashion: if that's not the script, it ought to be.
Knicks, Kings, Pacers and Rockets are without coaches. The Grizzlies are apparently holding to Dave Joerger (I think they ought to keep him though it seems like they've got a big shake up coming), if Mike D'antoni gets a better job, one would assume that means Brett Brown is safe in Philly and we'll see if the Raptors remain satisfied with Dwayne Casey (they, too, may have a big shake up coming). I imagine the Hawks will make big moves, too, but I think Coach Bud will be making the moves.
JB Bickerstaff is offically out in Houston, as the Rockets extend their search for a new head coach. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bickerstaff join Luke Walton's crew in LA. I'm guessing Frank Vogel just went to the top of their list. And word is Mike D'antoni will be interviewing for that spot.
Kevin McHale is reportedly out of contention for the Kings' job (probably best for his mental health). Patrick Ewing is the media's favorite for that gig, but we'll see if GM Vlade Divac agrees.
The Knicks seem to be leaning toward David Blatt, although they, too, might want to take a run at Vogel. Random aside: remember the Reform Party? Back in the 1990s kooky billionaire Ross Perot invented a 3rd party behind big money and potential muscle to nose their way into the Dem-Rep duopoly that runs America. In 2000 they fielded Pat Buchanon as their candidate. All Buchanon had to do was get 5% of the popular vote in order to secure matching funds (re: legitimacy) for the Reform Party going forward; instead, (I believe) Buchanon torpedoed the party to make sure that Perot's vision would go down in flames and the two party system would be preserved. (Yeah, perhaps I'm straining the conspiracy theory, the idea that Pat Buchanon was simply incapable of 5% of the vote despite his full efforts is not at all hard to believe) Anyway, that's what Phil Jackson's tenure with the Knicks feels like: he's collecting big paychecks to pretend like he's in charge when at best he's only sabotaged their chances of getting better in the near term. With the Lakers hiring Luke Walton, it is important to remember that after next season the Buss children seem destined for a power struggle (favoring Jeanie Buss) and Phil has an opt out clause with the Knicks: the band would seem to be ready to get back together next year right as the salary cap takes another huge jump (and with no Kobe around to hog any spotlight). In great conspiracy theory fashion: if that's not the script, it ought to be.
Knicks, Kings, Pacers and Rockets are without coaches. The Grizzlies are apparently holding to Dave Joerger (I think they ought to keep him though it seems like they've got a big shake up coming), if Mike D'antoni gets a better job, one would assume that means Brett Brown is safe in Philly and we'll see if the Raptors remain satisfied with Dwayne Casey (they, too, may have a big shake up coming). I imagine the Hawks will make big moves, too, but I think Coach Bud will be making the moves.
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Premier League
Leicester City went 22-11-3? Leicester? Dang, I wish I'd paid more attention to the Premiership this year. And Tottenham finished 2nd? WTF? (For you non-soccer fans this is like Vanderbilt and Kentucky finishing 1st and 2nd in the SEC...think you'll live to see that? 'Cause I don't)
Playoff Predictions
I'm running a little late on these but so far nothing has changed my thoughts, so here it is.
I'll take Cavs over Hawks in 6. I think the Hawks can squeeze out wins in Games 3 and 4 making the series look close. And then the Cavs shut the door.
I'll take Heat over Raptors in 6. My gut is that the Raptors are the better team...in the regular season. But when the refs let the game play, I think there will be fewer free throws to go around which will cut into Derozan and Lowry's scoring efficiency more than the Heat's. If Lowry gets his shooting stroke back this could go 7, maybe even with Toronto moving on; but, unless that happens, I think the Heat are just too deep for the Raptors to deal with.
I'll take Spurs over Thunder in 7. I was kinda shocked by the home loss in Game Two but I expect the Spurs to take one of those games back and finish the Thunder in 7. (BTW: I think if the refs blow the whistle on that now infamous in-bounds play, they call the foul on Ginobli...which is why they let it play. Spurs still had their chance to win and came up short, not worth blaming the refs)
I'll take the Warriors in 5. I'll give the Blazers one crazy shooting night back home but otherwise I don't see the Warriors letting the Blazers even get close. And as for Steph: I wouldn't play him until the Blazers win 3 or the Spurs win 4, whichever comes first. Until then, I'd even ride out a loss or two just to give Steph all the time he needs.
I'll take Cavs over Hawks in 6. I think the Hawks can squeeze out wins in Games 3 and 4 making the series look close. And then the Cavs shut the door.
I'll take Heat over Raptors in 6. My gut is that the Raptors are the better team...in the regular season. But when the refs let the game play, I think there will be fewer free throws to go around which will cut into Derozan and Lowry's scoring efficiency more than the Heat's. If Lowry gets his shooting stroke back this could go 7, maybe even with Toronto moving on; but, unless that happens, I think the Heat are just too deep for the Raptors to deal with.
I'll take Spurs over Thunder in 7. I was kinda shocked by the home loss in Game Two but I expect the Spurs to take one of those games back and finish the Thunder in 7. (BTW: I think if the refs blow the whistle on that now infamous in-bounds play, they call the foul on Ginobli...which is why they let it play. Spurs still had their chance to win and came up short, not worth blaming the refs)
I'll take the Warriors in 5. I'll give the Blazers one crazy shooting night back home but otherwise I don't see the Warriors letting the Blazers even get close. And as for Steph: I wouldn't play him until the Blazers win 3 or the Spurs win 4, whichever comes first. Until then, I'd even ride out a loss or two just to give Steph all the time he needs.
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