Sunday, January 7, 2018

2017-18 NCAA Championship

Alabama (-4) - Georgia (over/under 45.5)

I looked back over their schedules to see if the conference crossover in the records gives anything to compare/contrast. Nope, they pretty much look the same: they both blew out Tennessee and Vandy (yeah, they were both terrible this year), both lost to Auburn (how does Auburn feel right now knowing they already thumped both of these potential 'champions'?). The only difference is Alabama kinda struggled with Mississippi State where as Georgia did not but I don't find that particularly meaningful. 

Both teams played high profile early season matches: Alabama knocked Florida State's QB out for the year, which the Seminoles never came back from; and Georgia eked out a victory over Notre Dame, who I recall was actually the better team that night (surprised the Irish didn't pull it out). For the rest of the season, I was reasonably impressed with Notre Dame while Florida State just never got on track (though they did win a bowl). So in the non-conference, I thought Georgia had the slightly better showing. 

Alabama fumbled with conference foes LSU and Texas A&M (two of Saban's personal betes noires) and couldn't move on Auburn but otherwise destroyed everyone they played in classic Crimson Tide fashion. Georgia, too, struggled against Auburn's D (the first time they played) but otherwise ripped through everyone they played better than I've ever really seen. Seems like Georgia is overrated year after year, but this year they were actually legit while Alabama is everyone's default #1 though this year they didn't really do much to earn it (one tough game, which they lost). 

I was impressed that Georgia outlasted Oklahoma--especially in a shootout which I would've thought favored the Sooners. And I was impressed that Alabama so easily suffocated Clemson, who I thought would come in with more talent and plenty of confidence. 

My first thought is that this is just Alabama being Alabama while Georgia has overachieved and Monday night will be a typical Tide coronation. But Georgia has now played two good games in a row against two different types of opponents while Alabama has only one straight win against a team not much like Georgia. Giving Nick Saban a month to plan for Clemson is one thing, but they won't have any advantage over the Bulldogs. I'm so far more impressed with Georgia getting revenge on Auburn and then going toe to toe with Oklahoma than I am with Alabama...not playing in the SEC championship and dressing down a team that had no problem with Auburn. 

I'll take the points, I think Georgia moves the ball and controls the pace. I'll take Georgia and the under. Something like Georgia 24-20.

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