2017-18 NCAA Championship

Alabama (-4) - Georgia (over/under 45.5)

I looked back over their schedules to see if the conference crossover in the records gives anything to compare/contrast. Nope, they pretty much look the same: they both blew out Tennessee and Vandy (yeah, they were both terrible this year), both lost to Auburn (how does Auburn feel right now knowing they already thumped both of these potential 'champions'?). The only difference is Alabama kinda struggled with Mississippi State where as Georgia did not but I don't find that particularly meaningful. 

Both teams played high profile early season matches: Alabama knocked Florida State's QB out for the year, which the Seminoles never came back from; and Georgia eked out a victory over Notre Dame, who I recall was actually the better team that night (surprised the Irish didn't pull it out). For the rest of the season, I was reasonably impressed with Notre Dame while Florida State just never got on track (though they did win a bowl). So in the non-conference, I thought Georgia had the slightly better showing. 

Alabama fumbled with conference foes LSU and Texas A&M (two of Saban's personal betes noires) and couldn't move on Auburn but otherwise destroyed everyone they played in classic Crimson Tide fashion. Georgia, too, struggled against Auburn's D (the first time they played) but otherwise ripped through everyone they played better than I've ever really seen. Seems like Georgia is overrated year after year, but this year they were actually legit while Alabama is everyone's default #1 though this year they didn't really do much to earn it (one tough game, which they lost). 

I was impressed that Georgia outlasted Oklahoma--especially in a shootout which I would've thought favored the Sooners. And I was impressed that Alabama so easily suffocated Clemson, who I thought would come in with more talent and plenty of confidence. 

My first thought is that this is just Alabama being Alabama while Georgia has overachieved and Monday night will be a typical Tide coronation. But Georgia has now played two good games in a row against two different types of opponents while Alabama has only one straight win against a team not much like Georgia. Giving Nick Saban a month to plan for Clemson is one thing, but they won't have any advantage over the Bulldogs. I'm so far more impressed with Georgia getting revenge on Auburn and then going toe to toe with Oklahoma than I am with Alabama...not playing in the SEC championship and dressing down a team that had no problem with Auburn. 

I'll take the points, I think Georgia moves the ball and controls the pace. I'll take Georgia and the under. Something like Georgia 24-20.

NCAA Championship

Alabama (-7) - Clemson (o/u 50.5)

Alabama (13-1) played 12 bowl participants this year (only Charleston Southern and Louisiana-Monroe failed to make a bowl). 8 won their bowl games (Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Miss St, Auburn) and 4 lost (Middle Tennessee St, Texas A&M, Florida, Michigan St). Clemson (14-0) played only 7 bowl participants this year. Of those only Louisville prevailed in their bowl appearance (Notre Dame, Miami, NC St, Florida St, North Carolina, Oklahoma all got bounced).

Right off the bat: Alabama played more good opponents than Clemson did. But neither team blows people out, both do just enough to win. Clemson has a more prolific offense, Alabama grinds people down with toughness and a paucity of mistakes. I think Oklahoma and Michigan State were the lesser squads in this year's playoff, both angling in right at the last moment, so I take little from the semi-final contests.

I watched a lot of NCAA football this year but other than the semi-final game I don't think I watched Alabama all year long, while I watched Clemson beat Notre Dame, Miami and Florida St. All I've got is gut: Alabama will win but I like Clemson to keep it close. The score will be low, something like 20-17.  I like Clemson (+7) and the under (50.5). Book it, punters!
  
(For the future: I think both teams have a good shot at being in the top 4 this time next year again. The talk that Saban is going pro doesn't sway me, he's got a good thing in 'Bama and the money would have reeeeeeeaaaaaaal good to move him off his piece of gridiron heaven. Clemson's recruiting has been top notch recently and it looks like that will maintain. The ACC looks kinda soft to my eye (Mark Richt to Miami doesn't get me all jazzed, long thought that guy was overrated) and if Jimbo Fisher gets poached from Florida State, then Clemson has a clear path back to the playoff for the foreseeable future. Notre Dame is moving in the right direction, surely Urban Meyer won't squander another fine class at Ohio State and LSU needs a warpath kinda season to save the dangling Les Miles, throw in 'Bama and Clemson and that's a good start at next year's final four)

Ohio St v. Oregon

Growing up in Kentucky I was not (as you can imagine) much of a college football fan.  UK was never any good and while I loved the NFL, watching the college game never made any sense to me.  There seemed to be a handful of teams wildly better than their pitiful opponents which made it not much fun to watch and the system to determine the champion just seemed capricious at best.  Somewhere in the last 10 years or so I changed my tune.  I guess I just grew up and had nothing better to do on Saturday than watch 'amateur' football.  I grew to love watching the contests and I embraced the changes to the old system.  Personally I dug the BCS, for all its flaws I think it generally did a pretty good job of filtering down to two final contestants.  And we all knew that it would eventually lead to a tournament.  Its a 4 team tourney now (all I need) but soon enough it'll get to 8 teams and I think in the end it'll get up to 16 (a long slog through the month of December).

In the old BCS system we would've ended up with Alabama and Florida State in the final, neither of whom survived their playoff tests.  I watched a lot of Florida State this year (thank you, ESPN3) and they never dominated, doing only enough to come out on top, the most uninspiring undefeated team since that BYU team that won championship back in the 1980s (which is kinda where all this BCS stuff came from, if you think about it).  So I'm glad Oregon and Ohio State were matriculated into the system especially since it feel like we've been waiting 10 years for an Alabama-Oregon final...well, that didn't happen this year either.

Oregon ripped through the Seminoles just as I thought they would.  Some games are predictable, some games catch you by surprise, but Oregon's semi-final win over Florida State was in the latter camp. If I was a betting man (which strangely enough I am not) I would've thought nothing of putting money on the Ducks in the game.  I'm not as confident in tonight's tilt because Ohio State has been surprising me non-stop lately.  I didn't think they'd beat Wisconsin with a 3rd string QB and they won 59-0!  I wasn't sure they'd be able to get past Alabama in the trenches but they handled themselves just fine.  I feel like the Buckeyes can't hang with Oregon's team speed and the onslaught of the Duck attack...but, I dunno, maybe.

This game should be a good one, a great kickoff to the college football tournament we all knew was gonna happen someday.  Both offenses look unstoppable, its a matter of which defense can plug the dyke long enough to compile more points.  It'd be interesting if this turned into a sludgefest, a good ol' fashioned field position battle, but I don't see that happening.  These teams both score a lot of points and I think they'll both score a lot tonight; I can easily see the losing team scoring 35 points.  I've been going against the Buckeyes and losing but I'm gonna do it one more time: I'll take Oregon (-6.5) and the over (74.5).