2023-24 NBA Finals

(TWO) Mavs 98-105 Celtics

Game Two was close into the 3rd quarter, then the Celtics ran off and left them. I thought Jrue Holiday was the Man of the Match. Porzingis was fine but not the electric presence he was in Game One.

(THREE) Celtics 106-99 Mavs

Game Three was, again, close into the 3rd quarter, then the Celtics ran off and left them--well....sorta. The Celtics went on a run, got the lead up to 21, then kinda fell asleep as the Mavs clawed back to cut the lead to 1. Then the Celtics finished strong and won rather easily after Luka fouled out (in major frustration mode). If you wanna say Jaylen Brown was the Man of the Match for fouling out Luka, I guess I'd go with that.

(FOUR) Celtics 84-122 Mavs

Game Four was over quick, as the Celtics threw in the towel rather early, allowing the Mavs to have one big explosion in front of their home fans (the epitome of the 'Gentleman's Sweep'). You knew someone was gonna suck tonight and I figured it would be the Celtics (I put the chances at 75% Celtics, 25% Mavs). One way or the other, you just knew the 4th quarter of this game was gonna be a snooze. 

(FIVE) Mavs 88-106 Celtics

Game Five was a slow motion stomping. The Celtics took control in the 2nd quarter, but somehow there was still this nervous feeling they were gonna blow it. But...how was that gonna happen? We established in Game One that the Mavs needed perfection from Luka AND from Kyrie AND from the bench to even have a shot in this series. Well, outside of Game Four, that never came close to happening. This series was DOA, Porzingis nailed the coffin shut in the 1st half of the 1st game!

The deal is this Celtics version is one of the most perfectly constructed teams I've ever seen--so perfectly constructed that it was hard to recognize because there was no clear and obvious star or dominant attribute. They were just plain good at every phase of the game. This was a top down creation where each player was given a free run to be his best self because the GM and the coach knew exactly how the pieces on the chessboard were gonna win the game. 

Personally, I thought the MVP of this series was Jrue Holiday, that guy was everywhere on defense, had an important offensive blow out in Game Two and just generally held everything together. Brown is a fine choice, he was good, too. But so was Tatum and Derrick White and though Porzingis played limited minutes, one could argue that he sealed this series in his first appearance. Al Horford was good, Peyton Pritchard was good (btw, I totally knew that half court buzzer beater was going in, knew it before he even got the ball), Sam Hauser hit some big shots in Game Five (and just missed on a few others) and even Xavier Tillman had a nice Game Three. Throw in that Coach Mazzullo was punching all the right burtons and it was just a reminder that the Celtics were the best team all season long, we just weren't sure until the trophy was hoisted.

Yes, they didn't have to play Giannis or Emibiid or Jimmy Butler or the scrappy Knicks but...so what? I think they would've beaten them anyway (hell, I think only the Knicks would've really made them sweat). Nor did they have to play the Nuggets (but they were hurt and just not as good as last year, so I think the Celtics could've/would've beaten them) or the Wolves (looking back on it, they might have been the toughest match up for the Celtics, but I think the Celtics would've won) or the Thunder (they didn't have the playoff experience to get through the West much less the Celtics). 

Turns out the Celtics had to beat the teams that got to them and they dispatched them all with ease. This was a steady good team, it wasn't a dominant team or a team that you slobbered over all season long, but this Celtics team is ultimately one of the most complete, all-around teams I think I've ever seen. Tatum and Brown are an all-time great duo, White and Holiday are the perfect complementary players for them, Porzingis was a zany wild card (that may well have been an all-star on a lot of other teams), Horford was the right grizzled vet to keep them in line and even the bench guys (Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser) generally handled their tasks accordingly. This team is set for the next 2 years, Coach Maz knows what he's doing and GM Stevens has shown that he understands the soul of this squad and won't hesitate to make big deals. Huzzah to the Celtics!

I said it last year, I'll say it again this year: I got Nuggets over Celtics in the next Final (watch out for the Bucks and the Thunder).

2023-24 NBA Finals (Game One)

(ONE) Mavs 89-107 Celtics

Well, if Porzingis is awesome like this for three more games, then this series will be over in 4. The Celtics just needed Porzingis to not suck, to not be a zero out there, and he was way more than that, dominating the 1st half at both ends. If Porzingis is terrible then the Mavs might have a chance to pull a surprise, but if Porzingis is a big contributor, then the Mavs have nothing to stop that, no chance to keep up. I hate to overreact to the first game, but it was pretty clear right away that the Mavs will have to be perfect on offense to even have a chance. By perfect I mean Luka needs a very efficient 35 every night, Kyrie needs an efficient 25 every night and the rest need an efficient 30 to hang. That's a tough ask, man, this Celtics defense is pretty damn good and, again, if Porzingis is high level, the Mavs have no answer. 

Here's the real realization of Game One: holy shit, the Celtics are really fuckin' good and we all kinda knew that, but now that we're in the Championship and it is plainly obvious that this squad is just about perfect. Even without Porzingis they should still beat the Mavs, but with a healthy Porzingis, they have way too much for the Mavs to hang with. I'm even really impressed with the minutes the Celtics have been getting out of Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser, I figured they would go away for the Final, but, no, I think I expect to see them playing pretty good minutes. 

The Celtics had great success in Game One on shutting down the dunker-spot contribution of the Mavs offense. If the Celtics continue to take that away, I'd suggest gang tackling on Kyrie and just letting Luka do whatever he wants. If Luka goes for 50 every night but the Celtics shut down everything else....this'll be over in 4. 

The really fascinating wrinkle that could appear: what if the Celtics stomp the Mavs in 4 games even with Luka being amazing every night....but Tatum doesn't do anything? What if Porzingis is the big hero or Jaylen Brown goes off a coupla nights in a row or we all acknowledge that the real winner is the Celtics stifling team defense (led by Derrick White and Jrue Holiday) or the superior acumen of the much maligned Coach Mazzulo or we really begin to appreciate the terrific job that GM Brad Stevens has done putting this squad together....what does that do for the Tatum-is-the-man narrative? Is it just a joke for them to laugh about next season or is it a cloud that hangs over a team that's kinda built to dominate for the next few years? (Yup, this series is already so over that I'm peeking ahead to what could happen next year)

2023-24 NBA Championship (Predictions)

East

Pacers 128-133 (OT) Celtic

Pacers 110-126 Celtics

Celtics 114-111 Pacers

Celtics 105-102 Pacers

Game Two was the big fave blowout game, Game Four was the team in control finishing the job. But the other two matches were nailbiters--and gotta say: the Pacers lost Game One and Game Three more than the Celtics won them. If the Pacers make the right plays late or at least bring some ruckus in the OT, they very easily could've been up early on the road. But....they didn't make the plays, the Celtics ripped them in OT and then ripped them some more in Game Two, went up 2-0, and looked like the dominant Eastern champs that they've been all season. 

The Pacers, again, had their chance to steal Game Three--the gentleman's sweep game. But, again, the Pacers failed to capitalize and the Celtics handled their business. Game Four was good effort from the Pacers, the Celtics did well to squeeze the life out of this squad. 

I was impressed with the Pacers. They faced a schizophrenic and battered Bucks squad, managed to outlast the Intensive Care Knicks, had some real toe-to-tie moments with the Eastern champs, they made the most of their run. They overachieved but this team can score. This team is good, if they run this back, they can expect to be better just on the normal maturation of Halliburton, Turner, Jackson and Benedict Mathurin (who didn't play at all in this series) and another year of Siakim getting acclimated to the rotation, so if the other East teams are gonna fart around, this Pacers team could be top 3 next season--it isn't that crazy. 

Myles Turner gets buckets! I think they'd be crazy to trade him (though he's been one of the buzziest names in the league for years). Tyrese Halliburton had a tough season, started brilliantly--and that was after a fine performance in the FIBA World Cup last summer--but then ran into injury woes, which he was forced to play through to get his bonuses. I love Halliburton, but he's not yet a 4th quarter assassin, when he fully matures into his All-NBA self, he'll win the games that he let get away (like One and Three). Pascal Siakam, who I presume is re-signing with the Pacers (right?), is one that I have long thought of as a top flight 3rd banana, had some for-real moments of carrying this team (albeit without having to face Kristaps Prozingis). I liked Andrew Nembhard (made some cold blooded plays), Aaron Nesmith (seems like the prototypical 3-and-D guy), Ben Sheppard (nice minutes off the bench), they got nice defensive minutes from Isaiah Jackson, and I've loved TJ McConnell for years, these guys keep the speed high and they put points on the board. I'm guessing they'll wildly overpay Siakam, not sure what happens with Obi Toppin (who has tantalizing moments, but I'm not convinced he'll develop into a reliable baller). I think the Pacers are poised to be pretty good next season (and it'd probably be a mistake to trade away McConnell, but he is exactly what some other teams (Wolves, Nuggets, Lakers) are looking for, so if they could get back two rotation guys for him, it might be worth looking into). 

West

Mavs 108-105 Wolves

Mavs 109-108 Wolves

Wolves 107-116 Mavs

Wolves 105-100 Mavs

Mavs 103-124 Wolves

The Mavs went on the road and won the first two games in Minnesota--double shocker! They made the plays to seal the victories and the Wolves did not. I think losing the first two games just right off doomed the Wolves. The games were all close (though Game Four was the least intensity the Mavs played since Game One against OKC), but the Mavs had the reliable buckets and the Wolves couldn't get there. Both teams played well on defense, the Mavs offense had more flavor, especially late.

Ultimately the banner headline of this series is that the Wolves are not a 4th quarter team. They've got a good mix of size, ball handling, youth/veterans to get through a game, but they don't yet have the zazz that it takes to finish out close games. They need to win big to be secure and I reckon the Wolves should be a good regular season team next year. The Mavs, on the other hand, have two relentless scorers and a bevy of a role players that know how to complement them. The Mavs fairly well cruised through Game Three, inexplicably rolled over in Game Four and then brought the hard wood in Game Five, a laugher (to go 3-0 in Minnesota) and finish the Series in five games. 

The Wolves took a great leap forward this season, not unexpectedly--though I sure didn't think they'd win a Game Seven in Denver. They feature size all over the court and a swarming defense that (okay, I'll say it) reminded me of the Parcells-Lawrence Taylor NYG gang tackling attack. At their best, they were near the top of the West all season long, destroyed the Suns, flat out humbled the great Nikola Jokic (in Game 7 in Denver!) and looked to be the faves to finish off the Mavs. Then the troubles started...we learned that the platoon of Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley is a bit on the half-baked side. Edwards isn't yet a game winner and Conley, savvy vet that he is, just doesn't have the command on the court making their offensive attack too young and simultaneously too old. Throw in that Karl Anthony Towns is an unpredictable crazy man (wow, so many dumb fouls!) and Rudy Gobert goes through stretches of being incapable of scoring (dude, you're never more than two feet from the basket--how can you not score!?!??), and this squad just doesn't have the solidity to play a complete game just yet. I'm not sure Jaden McDaniels was effectively utilized in this series (I would've put him on Kyrie rather than Luka) and Naz Reid's minutes were haphazardly mixed and mingled with Towns. This is still a good team as constituted but (I sure ain't the first to say this) they ought to see what Towns can bring them in a trade package; not a bad player, but pretty expensive for his unpredictability. 

Finals

Mavs @ Celtics

The Celtics dominated the East all season long. The Knicks were spunky but faced too many injuries, the Bucks were up-and-down and when Giannis got hurt, they were just down. I thought the Sixers were pretty overrated and with Embiid's injury woes, they never struck me as terribly dangerous. The Heat had one of their mail-in seasons (about every other year for them). The Cavs and the Magic are eerily similar in their "okay"-ness. And it was the Pacers that emerged in the playoffs--not a fluke, but not as good as the Celtics. So the rest of the East didn't really matter, as none of those squads were likely to compete with the Celtics anyway.

The Mavs missed the playoffs last season due to a team decision to tank for a top 10 pick, which netted them Derrick Lively (so organizationally they made the correct choice). They were a pretty good, top half of the table team in the West for the first half of the season, riding a top flight season by Luka. The real jump was picking up PJ Washington (Hornets) and Daniel Gafford (Wizards) at the trade deadline, which solidified their defense, allowed even more offensive focus for Lively thereby remaking the core into the toughest out this post-season. They rather easily dispatched the Clippers (for, like the 10th year in a row), took advantage of OKC not being ready to go deep in the playoffs (young and awesome....but young), and similarly found a Wolves team that had perhaps overachieved by beating Denver. The Mavs ended up with the best possible path by not having to play the Nuggets or (strangely) the Lakers, and matching up with two teams that just aren't ready yet instead. 

So are the Mavs really the best in the West? No but the West is really tight and Dallas is deservedly among the best. Are the Mavs gonna be back next year? I wouldn't bet on it, way too much competition out there to just anoint them here and now. And seeing Anthony Davis, Giannis and Jokic turn into one-and-dones in rapid succession suggests that there are a lot of great players right now, the depth of even the worst franchise is still pretty amazing, and look how hard Tatum and Brown have worked to get to the pinnacle. 

This should be a fun series. Whereas the Wolves and the Pacers couldn't close games, both of these squads are used to winning and I think a long series is in the cards. So far the Celtics have done it all without Porzingis because the East was, well, so winnable that they didn't even need the guy that has arguably been their offensive table-setter all season long. I would've liked to see him play a little against the Pacers, but hopefully he's practicing at a high level right now, and game shape will come easy to him. They can ease him into the lineup, I think I'd use him as a 6th man curveball to start, see if they can maximize him at both ends right away, then think about getting him back to the starting lineup (and putting Horford back in chaos-off-the-bench mode). The Tatum-Brown-White-Holiday core have been chugging along nicely and while I generally like the production they've been getting from their bench, I suspect Kornet and Brissett will be sharply curtailed to some end of quarter minutes, Hauser and Tillman are out of the rotation from here on out and even Pritchard will have a pretty short leash. So the Porzingis minutes are crucial and if he's not right, that's where it goes badly for the Celtics. They could still win with the bench they've been winning with, but the Mavs are cooking right now, not sure they can count on that. 

The Mavs have Luka at the peak of his powers and Kyrie at his most snake-in-the-grass-ness and a supporting cast that is rounding out nicely. Washington got buckets against OKC (though not as much against anyone else), Gafford got stops, Lively is the perfect complement for Luka and Kyrie at both ends, Exum has had useful minutes keeping the pace off the bench, Josh Green and Jaden Hardy have had nice moments. This is a really good squad and that's with minimal (for various reasons) input from their veteran core of Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, any of whom could suddenly appear and make plays. This team has everything they need to win. If they come full-on for 7 games, this series will go 7 games.

I think the Celtics are the better team, the Mavs are the deeper team. The Mavs have potentially more reliable offense and even more stifling defense. The Celtics are the big favorite in Vegas but it is not plainly obvious that they are wildly better than the Mavs. Throw in that the Celtics are good for at least one giveaway game per series and it doesn't seem at all crazy that this will go 7 games and anyone can win. 

I fear, though, that the Mavs will either be Luka or Kyrie, whereas the Celtics have an array of scorers that can produce a flourish of buckets. So I expect the Mavs to win on nights when they're shooting with deadly accuracy, but the Celtics should have many nights of more shots, more buckets. 

The real wild card is Porzingis. If he's awesome, the Celtics could wrap this up quick whereas if he's truly awful or unplayabale, the Celtics could fall into a rut of lazy shooting (that is the Celtics kryptonite) and get smoked. I think Porzingis will be good not great, he will be fine, which is really all the Celtics need to bolster everyone else's game. I reckon he'll have one good game, maybe 1-2 bad ones, but for the most part I think he's gonna give 7 good games of production. 

I like the Celtics in 6 (2,3,5,6). I think the Mavs pull a shocker in Game One (fascinating to see Kyrie win it late), then the Celtics re-group, take Games Two and Three, the Mavs claw back Game Four (Luka goes for fitty), the Celtics cruise in Game Five and then seal it on the road.

I'll take Tatum as MVP and Man of the Match in Game Six. I think Brown has at least one balls out game, as does Porzingis and White, Holiday and Horford should all be solid. Looking back, the buzzy love for the Mavs supporting cast will start to fade and then we'll be off to debating whether this is one of the great Celtic champions of all time--and get some wildly conflicting responses. Dang, I just laid it all out, let's see what happens. 

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East

(Game Five) Cavs 98-113 Celtics

Yup, gentleman's sweep. Sounds about right. The Cavs have a weird summer ahead: do they trade Donovan Mitchell (likely won't re-sign next summer) or Darius Garland (highest paid player on the roster)? Do they trade Jarrett Allen (kinda ugly behind-the-scenes report on him) or figure out how to play him with Evan Mobley? Does bringing back Isaac Okoro revolve around any of the potential trades above? Is there anyone that wants Georges Niang (liked him in Philly but he just doesn't fit in this lineup)? For a recently rebuilt team with good young talent that made the quarterfinals, the Cavs have more questions than answer going forward--which is not to say that they'll be bad next year. If they can navigate the landscape, they might be awesome, but they've got some work to do.  

(Five) Pacers 91-121 Knicks

(Six) Knicks 103-116 Pacers

(Seven) Pacers 130-109 Knicks

The Pacers looked so bad in their three losses, it's almost hard to remember that they actually won this series. And, even then, well, I mean, the Knicks had nobody left to play by the time Game Seven rolled around. But the Pacers handled their business by shooting the lights out in the 1st half of Game Seven; the Knicks went on a run after halftime, but the Pacers countered, restored the lead they had at halftime, then when Jalen Brunson went down with a broken hand (after OG Anunoby broke down almost immediately), and that was that. The Knicks had a nice season but injuries absolutely wrecked them--and Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo. Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein still almost got them to the next round. Knicks fans should hold their heads high today--and I haven't thought that since the mid-1990s. I think they'll move on from Bogdanovic (clearly not a Thibs fave), I think they'll lose Hartenstein (OKC ought to take a run at him), I think Alec Burks passed his Lakers audition with flying colors, they've got a big decision to make about re-signing Anunoby (man, he's gonna want long term money that his injury history turns into a tough sell), and not sure Precious Achiuwa makes it back either. So as hard as this team worked, I can see a lot of turnover going into next season and while it'll be good to get back all the injured guys, I can see them making big moves (Randle, Robinson could be on the way out) and looking kinda different next year. 

West

(Five) Mavs 104-92 Thunder

(Six) Thunder 116-117 Mavs

Game Six was the flip of Game Four: OKC had a nice but not overwhelming lead for most of the game, but the Mavs perfectly timed their run and stole it late. The Mavs defense impressed me: slowing down arguably the best offense in the league for 5 straight games (eh, the Mavs kinda mailed in Game One) was not something I thought they could do. I loved this OKC team and I expect them to look pretty much the same next year. Listen to me, OKC: ignore the haters and do NOT trade Josh Giddy! Don't do it! SGA and Chet and Giddy look like they've been playing together their whole lives and I think breaking them up just because the Mavs played unexpectedly good D and got crazy scoring from bench players is no reason to give up on the squad that finished #1 in the West this year. I suggest taking a run at Isiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton, keep an eye on the availability of Isaac Okoro, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bol Bol, go ahead and take Zach Edey (Purdue) at #12 (and/or trade back for future picks) and if they're in the reclamation biz, why not give James Wiseman one more try? They need rebounding, I think the inability to get second chance opportunities put too much pressure on their offense and the Mavs stepped up into it, sucking the life out of OKC at precisely the wrong time. I still like this OKC squad as constituted by they've got to add some size this summer and I think they can upgrade their interior without making any trades.

(Five) Wolves 97-112 Nuggets

(Six) Nuggets 70-115 Wolves

(Seven) Wolves 98-90 Nuggets

Weird series: I can't recall a 7 game series where all the games were blowouts. The Wolves overcame a 20-point deficit in Game Seven, riding a 3rd quarter wave all the way to the conference finals. Jamal Murray didn't seem fully healthy to me, Michael Porter Jr just never got going, Aaron Gordon and Caldwell-Pope just didn't get buckets and though Christian Braun pitched in nicely, he didn't get buckets either. I love Jokic and I thought he was generally great but the supporting cast wasn't there and the Wolves defense put too much pressure on him. What do the Nuggets do this summer? If I was the Nuggets I'd look into what they could get for Porter (how about to Blazers for Brogdon and Robert Williams?), he's a nice spot up shooter but he clearly just can't do anything else. Otherwise they're probably just looking for vets ring-chasing and check-cashing on the way out, like Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Robin Lopez (any of those names getting you excited?). And they might lose KCP and/or Reggie Jackson, too, so I think that bench behind the core of Jokic-Murray-Gordon is gonna get a little skimpier. I love Jokic, but he's looking like a 1-term Prez (had a lot of those lately). 

Conference Finals

Pacers - Celtics

The Pacers are a nice team, good depth, not bad on defense, but they go as their leader, Tyrese Halliburton, goes and sometimes Halliburton doesn't really get going. In the four wins against the Knicks, he was great; but in the three losses, man, he sucked--and sucked in all the ways you really don't want your all-star PG to suck. That said, the Celtics are just better than the Pacers, so prime Halliburton probably doesn't get more than 2 wins in this series. As for the Celtics, I'd give Porzingis the first 2 games off, but I'd like to see him play in Game Three (especially if the Pacers take a game in Boston) or definitely by Game Four. I think the Celtics can beat the Pacers without him, but even still, he'll need to be in game shape by the Finals, so I expect him to play some in this series, even if the Celtics don't need him. You can count on the Celtics to have one truly lackluster performance, I'd put that in Game Three. I like the Celtics to win the first two at home, then give one away in Indy, but wrap it up in five. Again, I don't want to diss the Pacers, they're pretty good and they absolutely earned their way to the final four; but the Celtics have been doing this longer and they have better upfront talent (with or without Porzingis) and in general I just like the Celtics better anyway. Celtics in 5.

Mavs - Wolves

Oh, man, this is gonna be a rock fight. I think this goes 7 games, I think they're all close, and I'm only going with the Wolves because I think at the end of the day, they're tougher and more balanced. The Mavs bested OKC with a resurgence in defense that stymied one of the best offenses in the league--and if the Wolves think they're getting easy buckets, oh I don't think so. But nor will the Mavs. They won't Kyrie float like a butterfly on them, Luka will have a lot of length in his face even from deep beyond the arc and the shocking scoring skills of PJ Washington and Derek Jones will likely go back to dormancy against this attacking defense. I think the Mavs superior offense will win out enough to push this series, but I like the Wolves offense to survive the long series a little better. If the Mavs had another scorer that could be relied upon, maybe they could triangulate away that Wolves D, but I don't think the contributions they got against OKC will materialize against the Wolves. Tough series, hard fought games, I like the Wolves in 7.

2021-22 NBA Finals (Game Two)

Celtics 88-107 Warriors

This was the Draymond game. You could tell early on that Green's mission was to get up under the skin of each and all of the Celtics (especially Al Horford). Draymond's whole shtick is that he talks non-stop throughout games but he (usually) manages to get right to the edge and then pull back without getting thrown out. Rather than being punished by the refs, it seems like they mostly just ignore him, which gives him license to be even worse. The trick for the Celtics: you gotta ignore him the way the refs do, you can't let his chirping stick with you. Well, going forward, anyway, because in this game Draymond got into it with Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and Horford and it felt like he threw each of them off their game. 

I thought the refs would make a difference and they did. Once Draymond established his presence, felt like the Warriors were getting the 50/50 calls and the judgement calls and the Celtics were not. Not that it was a wildly physical game, but it just felt like the refs were subtly shading the Celtics. We'll see if that flips back in Game Three. 

Looking over the box score I was struck how similar the team stats were. Identical on 3-pointers, virtually identical on rebounds, assists, personal fouls. Then the difference jumps out: Warriors got 15 steals to the Celtics' 5 and the Celtics had 18 turnovers to the Warriors' 12. The Celtics in both games have had some seriously errant passing and it killed them in Game Two (almost killed them in Game One). Also, since the Warriors took control of this game so completely in the 3rd quarter (got the lead up to 27 at one point), both teams emptied out their benches (though Jonathon Kuminga still only got 4 minutes), which I really hadn't expected. 

For the Celtics, Jaysun Tatum was back, 28 points (6-9 from 3p), but there is a slight danger to his dominance: the Celtics offense becomes a bit one-note when Tatum is working, whereas in Game One, when Tatum kinda sucked, the onslaught that stole the game for them was a team effort, with big contributions from Horford, Brown, Marcus Smart, and Payton Pritchard. It could be that the little-bit-from-everyone effect might be more useful in this series rather than riding big man Tatum. Ideally, the Celtics will be getting both, but if not then they'll need everyone to contribute. 

For the Warriors, I thought Nemanja Bjelica played well (surprised he only had 11 minutes in box score, really?). Klay Thompson (4-19) still hasn't gotten off yet (though I think he's gonna have a big game in Boston--he might only have one big game in him, but I think he's got at least one) and Andrew Wiggins (4-12) didn't score well either. Looking over the box score, it's kinda hard to see where the points came from. But they piled on to the Celtics in the 3rd.

Also, for the Warriors, they finally got Jordan Poole going and that is significant. It's not that they need Poole to carry them, it's that they need his marginal production to outrun the opponent. Poole is the guy that turns a 4-point lead into a 10-point lead, he turns an 8-point lead into a 15-point lead, etc., and those bursts are crucial to holding off the other team's run (everybody makes a run). 

In Game Three, I expect Brown, Smart and Horford to be big, I'm curious to see if Grant Williams can give Draymond some of his own business, curious to see if/how the refs control the game in general and I think Klay could go off. I would expect Steph Curry to be good and if Poole heats up, the Warriors could win big. But if the refs are more home-friendly and Tatum can just be a reliable contributor rather than the main feature of the offense, I think the Celtics could win big. This is just Game Three, we're all tied up, this series can still be a rout for one team or the other, tonight's match might be an indicator of whether this is a for-real 7-game series or not. 

2021-22 NBA Finals (Game One)

Celtics 120-108 Warriors

Great win for the Celtics! The Warriors were up 87-72 with 1:30 left in the 3rd quarter; from that point on the Celtics outscored the Warriors 48-21 on a combination of wasted possessions by the Warriors and some blistering 3-point shooting by the Celtics (especially Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown). This highlights the one serious flaw the Warriors have long possessed: they don't have a killer instinct. When the Warriors are rolling, they casually outscore everyone they play and don't really have to dig deeper for emotional pleading. But when it gets turned back on them, they flail badly. In this case, I'd point the finger first and foremost at Coach Kerr--hey, man, how about a timeout? The ABC broadcast showed the Warriors huddle when they were down 106-103 and Kerr says, 'we're doing great!' Dude...no you're not! You were up by 15, like, twelve seconds ago and you just got an avalanche dumped on your face! Why didn't Kerr slow down the momentum a little sooner? (The answer, I presume, is that the Warriors just assumed that they'd get hot and take the game back....but they never did)

Another troubling takeaway for the Warriors is that Jordan Poole does not look ready for this. That's a problem because they are going to need him to emerge as a reliable scorer if they plan on outrunning the Celtics. Another problem, is that, outside of Poole, everyone played pretty well and they still got rolled in their own building. Curry was good early on, Porter gave good minutes off the bench and even Iguodala hit some big shots. Draymond's stat line (2-12 from the field) is misleading in the sense that most all of his shots were bailouts at the end of the shot clock, but he needs to be dangerous there if he's going to make a worthwhile contribution.

Also, troubling for the Warriors is that Jaysun Tatum mostly sucked. Celtics fas can talk themselves into the notion that he was still contributing, but his role is to get buckets, not simply 'contribute', so the fact that the Warriors played him out of the game and still lost is not a good sign. Indeed, I'd say only Horford was consistently good for 4 quarters, this should've been a walkover for the Warriors and it went quite horribly wrong in the other direction. 

Is this the end of the road for the Warriors? Well you may recall that in the 2019 playoffs, the Celtics swiped a W in Game One against the Bucks (led by a dominant Al Horford performance, as I recall) but then lost the next four games. We can also look back to the Sixers taking Game One of the 2001 finals before dropping four straight, so the Warriors can still dominate this series.

Can the Celtics do this again? Well, again, considering they didn't get much from Tatum or Grant Williams (not sure he's a fit for this series), floundered badly coming out of halftime and still got a big win, the Celtics are already living on house money for now. Once Tatum gets going (oh, he will), the Celtics should be pretty confident in their scoring. Also, I thought Payton Pritchard had a good game and seems like he's gonna get minutes in this series. (That said, over the course of 7 games, feels like the Celtics aren't as deep and their rotation could get chewed up over the long haul) 

What do the Warriors need to do? They've got to get turnovers from Smart and Brown, they need Jordan Poole to step up and be dominant off the bench and Coach Kerr needs to keep a better eye on the flow of the game. Also, I suspect the refs will make a difference, which would likely favor the Warriors, so knocking down their FT's (something Curry has been strangely shaky on this post-season) is a must. We'll see what Gary Payton II has to offer, too, if he can disrupt the Celtics offense, the scoring onslaught could return to the Warriors side. 

Curious to see where this series goes. If the Celtics can score another shocker tonight, then they can start planning the parade. But the Warriors aren't done, they can play better on both ends--and, again, the refs can be serious game-changers. This series isn't over. All right, I'm ready for ball night!

2021-22 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Warriors over Mavs in 5

Yeah, the Warriors went up 3-0, mailed in Game Four (just as they'd done in Game Five against the Grizzlies in the previous round) and then finished off the series back home. The Mavs were fine, had a good season but just didn't have enough offense to slow the Warriors down. The Mavs seem likely to lose Jalen Brunson, who was an important scorer for them all season, to free agency; I'm sure they'd love to keep him but he's gonna want mad scrill and the Mavs just don't have it. But they do have Tim Hardaway Jr., who missed the entire season to injury, so I kinda expect the Mavs to hit the ground running a little quicker next season and should be in the top 5 in the West next year without much alteration to their roster. The Mavs are good, they go as far as Luka takes them and should be a tough out in next year's playoffs. Do they have moves to make? I don't think so. They'd love to upgrade, they'd love to keep Brunson but they're up against the salary cap (as is most everyone this summer), so I think welcoming back Hardaway is all they've got on the table, which isn't bad. I don't think the Mavs will be better or worse next year, though getting to the conference finals will be a long haul for them, 

Celtic over Heat in 7

I had the Heat in 7 and I was 20 seconds away from being correct, but Jimmy Butler's 3-ball didn't drop and the Celtics escaped. Okay, I may be getting the details wrong but here's what I remember from Game Seven: there were three plays in a row (right?) that stopped the clock and took the air out of the game. Bam Adebayo was called for a foul on Derrick White that was overturned, then Kyle Lowry was called for a block on Jalen Brown that was overturned, then Lowry lost his balance and had to call a weird timeout. All three of those plays were right in a row, right? Anyway, with about 9-10 minutes left in the game, there were several weird breaks in the action and then suddenly the Heat couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. The Celtics pushed the lead back up to 13 and with about 2 minutes to go did that thing that teams do where they're so eager for the game to be over that they just kinda quit playing. Next thing you know, the lead is down to 2 points, Butler gets a steal and with about 20 seconds to go, rises up to take the 3 that would've given them the lead. He missed (*), Celtics get the rebound and escape--ESCAPE!--to the NBA Finals.

Look, the Celtics were the better team, though the Heat had moments. Game Seven was choppy on both sides, the Celtics played better in the 1st quarter, built a nice lead, but otherwise neither team played a complete game. 

The Heat have some moves to make: moving on from Kyle Lowry's big-ass contract is something I'm sure they will look into (who wants him?), they've clearly lost faith in Duncan Robinson (they desperately needed scoring and perimeter D in this series and they still didn't play him!), Victor Oladipo might be an interesting sign-and-trade candidate, they could re-up Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and/or Max Strus (or they could just ride out their current deals), and they'll probably need another scorer (assuming that isn't Oladipo, which I don't think it is). The Heat have a nice core for next season but finishing 1st in the East again doesn't seem likely. They seem like a trade deadline kinda team to me, we'll see.

Championship

Celtics - Warriors

Yeah, I know they b-ball intelligentsia is mixed on this one and I do think this can be interesting match up, but I think the Warriors are vastly better than the Celtics--and I kinda don't understand the people who think otherwise. I like Jaysun Tatum and Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart as much as the next guy, but they are not unstoppable super heroes by any means. They can get hot and ride the momentum and they can just as likely go cold and disappear. I like Robert Williams and Grant Williams, but they've never been here before. I like Al Horford (he was great in Game Seven, would not allow his team to lose!) but he's not enough of a scorer or defensive stopper to make the difference in this series. I like Coach Udoka, but he's never been here before. 

The Warriors are not the classic Warriors, they don't have Durant, I get that. But they're a pretty damn squad and, unlike all those Celtics players, they have been here before. Arguably the most unreliable player on this team is Kevon Looney, who I think is pretty good and is a vastly better player than he was in the 2018 championship (yeah, their crappiest player has played hurt in a championship before! The Celtics don't have anyone like that). The Celtics are vastly--VASTLY--overmatched in this series. Jordan Poole is ready to blow up--and he's not even their 6th man! 

I get that Klay Thompson hasn't been classic Klay much this season, I get that Steph Curry has been good-not-great this post-season, I get that Draymond Green just does not shoot the ball any more. But do you understand that they just won the West in a gentleman's sweep without their best defender, Gary Payton II, who will be back this series. They'll also be getting back Otto Porter, who is better than anything coming off Boston's bench and Andre Iguodala--way past his prime, you say, but still good enough to slow down Horford. Do you think Payton Pritchard will outplay Jonathon Kuminga and/or Moses Moody, because I don't. 

This argument that the Celtics have a tougher road to the championship than the Warriors is not one I agree with: the Celtics got the broken down Nets, the Bucks without Khris Middleton and the Heat, who have no offense beyond Jimmy Butler (and to whom they almost blew a 13-point lead in the final two minutes). Whereas, the Warriors comfortably gave away a game to the broken down Nuggets (you think the KD Nets are wildly better than the Jokic Nuggets? I don't), comfortably gave away a game to the Grizzlies (young but a legit #2 in the West this season) and comfortably gave away a game to the Mavs (perhaps ahead of schedule, but do you think Butler is a better scrorer than Luka right now? I don't). The Warriors have only lost 4 games so far--and 3 of them were giveaways! In the 13 games where the Warriors actually showed up and played, they are 12-1.  

When Jaysun Tatum gets hot, he a serious filler-upper--a Golden State-level filler-upper! But that's really all Boston has to counter the offensive onslaught that the Warriors are bringing. I believe the Warriors can beat the Celtics with Draymond, Looney, half-hearted Steph and full throttle Poole, whereas the Celtics need super human performances from Tatum and Brown and even then they would still need Smart to be perfect and Horford to be better than he's ever been. I love ya, Celtic fans, but I have no idea where your confidence is coming from. (**)

I'll take the Warriors to be 3-0 after Game Three, give away Game Four, then wrap it up in five, just like they've been doing all through the playoffs. Warriors in 5. (Though just to create some drama, I'll say Draymond wins MVP (***))

(*) FWIW, I was totally cool with Butler taking that shot and upon refecltion, I'm still cool with it. That team was going wherever Butler dragged them and if he thought he had the shot, I have no hesitation with him taking it. That said, I also would've been cool with him driving to the basket and getting a bucket to tie the game or going for the hoop-and-harm style 3 (which would've brought down the friggin' house!). This was Butler's team, he was always the guy that was gonna take the shot, I have no problem whatsoever with the shot he took. If it had gone in (I thought it was in), we'd been holding Butler up as a hero (and we'd be lamenting the fact that the Heat have no shot against the Warriors....why do we think the Celtics are beating the Warriors?)

(**) Andrew Wiggins. Didn't even mention him, but he'll be marking Tatum this series. I expect Tatum to outplay Wiggins, I don't expect the rest of the Celtics to outplay the rest of the Warriors. Not even close. 

(***) One last thought experiment to illustrate the difference btw the Warriors and the Celtics. If Jordan Poole turned out to be the best player in this series, I would not be shocked; if Poole turned out to be the 10th best player and the Warriors won anyway, I would not be shocked. The Celtics have nothing on their side that even comes remotely close to that. If Marcus Smart turned out to be the best player in this series, I would be shocked--and I still wouldn't expect the Celtics to win!; if Smart is the 10th best player, there is no way in hell the Celtics could possibly come close to winning. Do you see what I'm saying? The Celtics need Tatum and Brown and Smart to be perfect--and that alone won't be enough! The Warriors have any number of permutations of their lineup that could still win the championship. I just don't see how the Celtics are even close in this series. We'll see.  

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Atlantic Division)

Sixers
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.

Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.

In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.

Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.


Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.

Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.

In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.

Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.


Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.

Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.

In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).

Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.


Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.

Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.

In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.

Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.


Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.

Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.

In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.

Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.

2019-20 Boston Celtics

2018-19: 49-32 (2nd rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 14,20,22,51

Next year ($123.2.m): Gordon Hayward, Al Horford (player option), Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Aron Baynes, Guerschon Yabusele, Robert Williams, Semi Ojeleye
The Celtics turned from a team with big stars, big expectations, and a mighty war chest into a team with a lot of "nice" players seemingly over night. GM Danny Ainge is the most cutthroat wheeler dealer in the business and yet his mighty haul has turned into lukewarm chocolate milk.
I think Hayward is in line for Comeback Player of the Year, I think without Kyrie, he'll flourish.
I can see Horford opting out (he did so yesterday, as a matter of fact) but actually I think he's got a good thing in Boston, he should take the money and ride it out (although is Kyrie is definitely gone, perhaps he can get a raise from the Celtics). I think he and Hayward can be great together.
Smart is the one of the hardest guys in the game, not always perfect but always gives effort, makes plays and the fans love him. I think he's on a great deal, I wouldn't be eager to trade him.
Tatum and Brown are still fine rising young players, not sure what either of them are just yet. Tatum was great in the playoffs in 2018, I thought Brown was great in the 2019 playoffs, I'd keep them both.
Baynes opted into his deal, I think he's way cheaper than Plumlee and just as good.
Williams could still turn out to be a star (probably more Hassan Whiteside than Mitchell Robinson) and is the only real rim protection the Celtics have, I expect him to steadily get more minutes.
I even like Ojeleye, not indispensable but he gives good effort, he's not a waste of time out there (and kinda the pre-Zion, right?).


Free agents: Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Daniel Theis, Brad Wanamaker
I don't see Morris coming back. No Celtics fans will tell you this but I thought he was basically the only Celtic that played well at all after Game One against the Bucks. But with Brown, Tatum, Horford and Hayward, you gotta feel like the Celtics will get by without Morris just fine.
The Celtics kinda desperately need a play making PG right now, is Rozier that guy? I don't think so. I think rather than re-signing him, they'll go out to the PG free agent market and see what's out there--are they a player for Kemba?; the free agent PG's out there this summer: Rubio, Lin, Austin Rivers, Collison, Rondo, Bayless, Temple, Joseph, D'angelo Russell, Ish Smith, Mudiay, Ron Baker, Elfrid Peyton...hmmm, Rozier doesn't look so bad, huh? They probably need to deal for Mike Conley or Jrue Holiday.
I actually kinda liked both Thies and Wanamaker but they probably both have better options in Europe.


Pointless trade idea: Celtics get #6 (aiming for Darius Garland (Vanderbilt)); Suns get #14,#20,#22,#51.
The Celtics needs a big time PG right now, is Garland that guy? I dunno, but if so then he's more than worth those other picks. Indeed, the Celtics already have a roster loaded with medium-priced talent, they need quality not quantity right now.
The Suns, on the other hand, don't have any particularly place to go this year, so why not throw a bunch more youngsters in the pool and see who swims? They're still a year away from being a year away, I don't see the Suns as a playoff team in 2019-20, so keep the youth movement rolling.


Lineup
PG Rozier, SG Smart, SF Hayward, PF Tatum/Brown, C Horford with Baynes, Yabusele, Williams and some draft pick off the bench.

Not a bad team but that doesn't seem better than 4th in the East. The Celtics suddenly look back with regret at the Kawhi trade that might've happened last summer but I don't think they'll look back at this summer with Anthony Davis in the same way (he wanted to be a Laker, not a Celtic). Not a bad team, one that actually looks like they'll grind through a lot of W's next year but one that will probably get snuffed out in the post-season.

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.

The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.

Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).

The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.


And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!

I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.

I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.


(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.

2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.

Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7.  That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.


West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.

Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.

Draft Evaluation (Atlantic)

Wizards (#15 Oubre (trade), #49 White) Oubre is high risk/reward, they're hoping an Oubre/Porter platoon can replace Paul Pierce. They'd love to get decent cheap bench minutes down low out of White as he'll be cheap enough he might make the roster (if Summer League isn't a disaster). Wall, Beal, Webster, Gortat, Nene is the starting five. Humphries off the bench down low, Oubre and Porter off the bench on the wings, Sessions for PG. Solid enough for the East but not a lot of flexibility though there are still roster spots to fill. Does this team beat the Pacers or Hawks in the playoffs? Too early to say.

Celtics (#16 Rozier, #28 Hunter, #33 Mickey, #45 Thornton) Risk/reward kinda draft. Hunter might be a for-real scorer...or he might be utterly awful. Rozier might be a confident ballhandler and playmaker...or he might be overmatched at the next level. Mickey might be a nasty defender down low or a ball hawking rebounder...or he might be a career D-league. Thornton might be...I dunno who he is...but he might something other than what he's supposed to be. The Celtics kinda got stuck in the middle with this draft: they need to draft their stars, they can't count on free agency. Ainge has drafted well over the years and I think they did well again with this haul, but there aren't any stars in there, just another batch of nice role players. The Celtics must have a big trade this summer, we'll see what comes.

Nets (#23 Hollis-Jefferson (trade), #29 McCullough) McCullough is hurt, probably won't play this year. Hollis-Jefferson is expected to be an all-world on-ball defender but not much else. The Nets have to get cheaper, can't imagine they'll be any good at all this year (but I thought that last summer and they still made the playoffs). These picks are for the future, the cheaper, younger future.

Sixers (#3 Okafor, #35 Hernangomez, #37 Holmes, #47 Gudaitis, #58 Tokoto, #60 Mitrovic) I think Okafor and Nerlens can play together, if so expect Embiid to be available by the 2016 draft. I think all 3 of the 2nd round foreigners are for the future, and as for Holmes and Tokoto, they'll get a chance because the Sixers are still dedicated to sucking for one more year at least. This year is about finding out if Nerlens and Okafor make a good combo, if so then there is finally something to build around. Expect the Sixers to earn themselves another lottery pick next year, add in 1st rounders from the Heat (probably around #25 or so) and the Lakers (mid-teens, maybe lottery), and whatever they can get for Embiid (I'd think a top ten 2016, another 1st rounder 2017). I think next summer is the time the Sixers have targeted to make their splash in free agency (....or perhaps they'll never make that splash and just keep accumulating value in the form of draft picks rather than W's).

Knicks (#4 Porzingis, #19 Grant (trade)) I can understand the NYK faithful to be gunshy about another Euro wunderkind and, hey man, Phil would've rather been anywhere than #4 in this draft. But the buzz is the kid can play. Frankly the Knicks are more dangerous to his future than the other way around. I wish the kid well, his highlights are pretty sick and before you call him tiny, he's actually bigger and stronger than Anthony Davis. If he's good in New York, the Knicks will be building around him soon enough; if he's not, Utah Jazz might be up for a blockbuster trade.

Pointless Trade Idea

Celtics get PF Faried (4 yrs $50m/$11.2 next year); Nuggets get PF Wallace (1 yr/$10.1m), SG Young ($1.7m next year) and the 16th pick in the upcoming draft.

Would the Nuggets dump Faried for an expiring contract and a coupla prospects?  I wouldn't but the Nuggets seem eager to separate themselves from Faried, so all in all not a bad package.  Not sure if Wallace can be bought out but if so I guess they would; that would turn the $50m they owe Faried into two decent prospects (Young could still be a nice SG, maybe at 16 they can get PF Harrell to replace Faried).  Also, it would save them a coupla bucks to chase after one of the centers that will/may be available this summer (Stoudamire, Al Jefferson, pick-a-Lopez, Asik).

Would the Celtics flip Wallace, Young and a #16 pick for 4 years of Faried?  I would.  Wouldn't think twice about it.  Putting Faried with Smart and Bradley would give the Celtics a wickedly opportunistic defense (though points might be hard to come by) for the next 3-4 years.  And it would reconfigure their free agent needs: Kevin Love would be out, all eggs go in the Lamarcus Aldridge basket or perhaps a solid scoring SG or SF.

Great deal for the Celtics, so-so deal for the Nuggets.  Not sure why the Nuggets are eager to get rid of Faried but if they're serious about moving him, an expiring contract and a draft pick is probably the best they can hope for.