2018-19: 19-63
Draft picks: 5,26
Signed for next season ($134.2m): Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith (non-guaranteed), Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, John Henson, Matthew Dellevadova, Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman, Ante Zizic
I'd be pretty shocked if they go into next year with JR Smith still on the roster. Man, they're still too old and too expensive--the Lebron effect.
They paid Kevin Love (still has 4yrs/$120m) so if they trade him it'll be a big deal--and with Klay and Durant more or less off the market, perhaps he becomes more intriguing to some team out there. I think the plan is to keep trotting him out there as the last remaining hero of the Lebron years until trading him becomes a more heroic story line--could be this summer, but probably next year.
Thompson, Smith, Knight, Clarkson, Henson and Dellevadova are all in the final years of their deals and are now trade chips or the makings of a half-hearted rotation. Any of these guys could be useful to the right playoff team but I don't see that any of them are much use to the Cavs except as trade bait--any 1st round pick will be accepted for any of these guys.
Nance is signed and I think a keeper--although they'd take a 1st rounder for him, too.
I think Osman and Zizic can still be good, they're too young to give up on them yet. I wouldn't expect them to get any playing time until after the trade deadline, when ideally the rest of the roster will be gone.
This summer's free agents: Marquesse Chris, Channing Frye (retired), David Nwaba, Nik Stauskus, Deng Adel, Jaron Blossongame
I never figured out what Chriss does but he's young enough and athletic enough to get another look from someone (Memphis?).
Frye was not a Hall of Famer but he had a good career, a notable career and it's nice to see him get a warm send-off.
They never quite cracked the code of how to use Nwaba but I don't see him coming back, I can see him coming off the bench for a playoff team (Nuggets, Bucks maybe).
I think we've seen the last of Stauskus, cursed by being drafted too high, he's probably off to Europe. Adel and Blossongame will probably be back on 2-way deals next year.
Draft: At #5 I would think they would pass on Coby White (North Carolina) and Darius Garland (Vanderbilt) since they already got a fine rookie season out of Collin Sexton last year. I think they'll aim instead for Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech) or Cam Reddish (Duke). #26 could yield someone like KZ Okpala (Stanford), who would be a worthy addition to the youth movement.
Next year's lineup:
PG Sexton, SG Clarkson, SF Nance, PF Love, C Thompson with a bench of Knight, Dellevadova, Osman, Reddish (?), Henson and Zizic.
Yeah...that's not a super sexy lineup right there. Only Love, Nance, Sexton and the #5 pick are signed past next year, so they got one more overpriced suck year and then they can get into the true post-Lebron phase. Their 2020 1st round pick is top 10 protected, so they've got no need to be any good at all next year. I guess they'd listen to offers for Love but I don't see him moving in the next year unless a can't-miss deal arrives at the trade deadline (ehh, I doubt it).
So is this team any good? Well, they could be if they wanted. That veteran crew right there is not dissimilar to, say, the Pistons; they could take a run at #8 in the East. But why bother? They'd rather suck, keep next year's top 10 pick, shed the dead weight from the roster as the season wears on and start looking at 2020-21 with a whole new eye. So even if this team is any good, I would expect them to trade off every performing player they've got for whatever young players, draft picks and expiring contracts they can get back.
Showing posts with label cavs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cavs. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Thursday, May 31, 2018
2017-18 NBA Finals
Both conferences went to Game Seven this year (for the first time since 1979) and both were decided by....crappy shooting. The Celtics just never got hot enough to hang with Lebron and the Rockets went ice cold in the second half, after over-performing in the first half. And so Cavs-Warriors IV begins tonight. This was my pre-season prediction and my prediction at the end of the regular season, so not a shocker, though the Cavs and Warriors struggled more this season than previous years.
We know what the Cavs are: Lebron and a bunch of other guys (which may or may not included Kevin Love). The Warriors at the top are the same as ever but the back end is not as good as years passed. But the story is still the same: if the Warriors shoot well, they'll probably win; if not, then the Cavs can hang around and have a chance.
The Warriors aren't as deep as previous models, they are dangerously susceptible to injury to one of their main guys (as losing Iguodala against the Rockets showed) but barring that should have enough offense to beat anyone. The Cavs are still figuring it out together (I can see this exact same squad being much better next year, oddly enough) and go as far as Lebron can carry them. He's carried them this far but Smith, Hill, Clarkson, or Thompson will need to score in addition to Love and Korver. I think Love and Thompson are the Cavs' best chance to create mismatches (though not necessarily points). I think the Warriors can more or less shut down Korver and Smith and they can outrun any addition brought by Hill or Clarkson. Draymond isn't as good as past years but Durant and Klay should be enough to outlast the Cavs.
I'll take Warriors in 5. I like the home team to win each of the first three games, then Golden State to steal Game Four in Cleveland and wrap it up in 5. I'll take Curry as the MVP, with this rationale: in their previous championships it was the third option guy (Iguodala, Durant) that won the MVP's but this is now Durant's team with Klay as the second banana and Curry as the bonus. Curry hasn't shot all that well yet, I think he blows up in this series and reminds everyone he's the king.
We know what the Cavs are: Lebron and a bunch of other guys (which may or may not included Kevin Love). The Warriors at the top are the same as ever but the back end is not as good as years passed. But the story is still the same: if the Warriors shoot well, they'll probably win; if not, then the Cavs can hang around and have a chance.
The Warriors aren't as deep as previous models, they are dangerously susceptible to injury to one of their main guys (as losing Iguodala against the Rockets showed) but barring that should have enough offense to beat anyone. The Cavs are still figuring it out together (I can see this exact same squad being much better next year, oddly enough) and go as far as Lebron can carry them. He's carried them this far but Smith, Hill, Clarkson, or Thompson will need to score in addition to Love and Korver. I think Love and Thompson are the Cavs' best chance to create mismatches (though not necessarily points). I think the Warriors can more or less shut down Korver and Smith and they can outrun any addition brought by Hill or Clarkson. Draymond isn't as good as past years but Durant and Klay should be enough to outlast the Cavs.
Monday, April 30, 2018
2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)
East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.
Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7. That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.
West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.
Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.
Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7. That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.
West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.
Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.
Saturday, June 3, 2017
NBA Finals
(Yes, I'm a day late but Game One didn't really change my mind)
In each round of the playoffs so far I've taken the Warriors in 5. I gave the Blazers a game because I thought they'd have one great shooting night and the Warriors would have one bad shooting night, just thought they might be on the same night. Ditto against the Jazz, who possess a solid home court advantage and have played as good as anyone against GSW lately. Ditto against the Spurs because, shit, man they're the Spurs but they can't keep up with the Warrior offense.
Ditto the Cavs, who are better than last year's Cavs that beat the Warriors (I'll say it: in one of the all time flukes of all time), but they aren't any better than this year's Spurs team that just curb stomped. I gave the Warriors one L in each series in the same way: Game Three. Thought in each series that would be the weakest moment for the Warrior crew, if they were gonna lose it'd be that one. So far they're 3-0 in Game Three, I expect them to go 4-0.
After one game it looks like the Cavs might be in the midst of a smoking, a four game swept kinda smoking. Durant is an upgrade on Harrison Barnes. It is kinda weird to not see Andrew Bogut out there but otherwise everyone is good and does their job. I think this Warrior team without Durant would be still be the favorite over this year's Cavs. With Durant this Warrior team is a clear favorite every time they take the court.
This Warrior team is the best team I've ever seen. Lebron, Duncan, Shaq, Jordan, Bird, Magic, Isiah, Stockon/Malone, Dirk, Nash, KG, Hakeem never played on a team better than this one. I would take this full strength team (and they don't even have their coach right now) over any team I ever saw. I'd give Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, Isiah's Pistons the best chance to hang but I think the combo of Draymond, KD, Steph, Klay, Livingston, and any other 5 dudes would take out even the best of the Jordan squads. This squad reminds me of Gretzky's Oilers, Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, the back-to-back Florida Gator teams: high level of dominance that's built to last.
Meanwhile, the Cavs don't have any clear competition in the East for 2-3 more years. The Celtics are the closest, they could pull something together but they haven't yet. The Bucks have an exciting young core but are at least 2 years from being better than Lebron. The Sixers have a shot at becoming something great, but could also be rebuilding forever. The Raptors were as good as they've ever been this year and it did not happen, I don't know how they even come close to the Cavs any time soon. The Wizards will likely be doomed with a lameass bench for a while. The Heat would seem to be closer than anyone thought they'd be, but they also seem like a faulty concoction that could get re-concocted at a moment's notice. Hawks, Pacers, Knicks, Pistons, Hornets...I mean, nah...
So right now I fully expect to see Wariors-Cavs IV next year. And right now I don't know why we wouldn't get Warriors-Cavs V the year after that. In three years the Cavs might slow down enough for a rising East team to catch them, in three years maybe the mileage on the Warrior roster might begin to leave them in the reach of the Spurs or Rockets. Bur I doubt it, I'll stick with Warriors-Cavs for the foreseeable future.
And, yeah, for no reason at all I'll still stick by the Cavs catching the Warriors in Game Three (maybe even in OT, that'd be cool). Kyrie can pretty much do whatever he wants out there, still hard to imagine him outscoring the Warriors by himself but I gave the Cavs a game, I'll stick by it.
In each round of the playoffs so far I've taken the Warriors in 5. I gave the Blazers a game because I thought they'd have one great shooting night and the Warriors would have one bad shooting night, just thought they might be on the same night. Ditto against the Jazz, who possess a solid home court advantage and have played as good as anyone against GSW lately. Ditto against the Spurs because, shit, man they're the Spurs but they can't keep up with the Warrior offense.
Ditto the Cavs, who are better than last year's Cavs that beat the Warriors (I'll say it: in one of the all time flukes of all time), but they aren't any better than this year's Spurs team that just curb stomped. I gave the Warriors one L in each series in the same way: Game Three. Thought in each series that would be the weakest moment for the Warrior crew, if they were gonna lose it'd be that one. So far they're 3-0 in Game Three, I expect them to go 4-0.
After one game it looks like the Cavs might be in the midst of a smoking, a four game swept kinda smoking. Durant is an upgrade on Harrison Barnes. It is kinda weird to not see Andrew Bogut out there but otherwise everyone is good and does their job. I think this Warrior team without Durant would be still be the favorite over this year's Cavs. With Durant this Warrior team is a clear favorite every time they take the court.
This Warrior team is the best team I've ever seen. Lebron, Duncan, Shaq, Jordan, Bird, Magic, Isiah, Stockon/Malone, Dirk, Nash, KG, Hakeem never played on a team better than this one. I would take this full strength team (and they don't even have their coach right now) over any team I ever saw. I'd give Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, Isiah's Pistons the best chance to hang but I think the combo of Draymond, KD, Steph, Klay, Livingston, and any other 5 dudes would take out even the best of the Jordan squads. This squad reminds me of Gretzky's Oilers, Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys, the back-to-back Florida Gator teams: high level of dominance that's built to last.
Meanwhile, the Cavs don't have any clear competition in the East for 2-3 more years. The Celtics are the closest, they could pull something together but they haven't yet. The Bucks have an exciting young core but are at least 2 years from being better than Lebron. The Sixers have a shot at becoming something great, but could also be rebuilding forever. The Raptors were as good as they've ever been this year and it did not happen, I don't know how they even come close to the Cavs any time soon. The Wizards will likely be doomed with a lameass bench for a while. The Heat would seem to be closer than anyone thought they'd be, but they also seem like a faulty concoction that could get re-concocted at a moment's notice. Hawks, Pacers, Knicks, Pistons, Hornets...I mean, nah...
So right now I fully expect to see Wariors-Cavs IV next year. And right now I don't know why we wouldn't get Warriors-Cavs V the year after that. In three years the Cavs might slow down enough for a rising East team to catch them, in three years maybe the mileage on the Warrior roster might begin to leave them in the reach of the Spurs or Rockets. Bur I doubt it, I'll stick with Warriors-Cavs for the foreseeable future.
And, yeah, for no reason at all I'll still stick by the Cavs catching the Warriors in Game Three (maybe even in OT, that'd be cool). Kyrie can pretty much do whatever he wants out there, still hard to imagine him outscoring the Warriors by himself but I gave the Cavs a game, I'll stick by it.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
NBA Finals
Oh, man, Game Seven was the classic we all hoped it would be. Went down to the wire, some great defensive plays (Lebron's rundown block is now his preeminent career highlight!) though only a modicum of clutch offensive play (Kyrie with the game winner). The game itself went back and forth all the way through, completely unlike the other six games in this series. I kept waiting for the Warriors to get hot but the longer you wait for that to happen, the more you know it isn't coming.
Klay and Curry did not shoot particularly well and still the game went into the last few minutes. Draymond was absolutely brilliant, Iguodala played his best but really no one else played well. Can't figure out why Livingston didn't play more and why on earth was Ezeli out there late in the game? Harrison Barnes was just terrible (for the last three games really) and Speights never really got a chance to do anything. The longer the series went on the more discombobulated the Warriors got. And without Klay and/or Curry piling on points, the Warriors were grinding their wheels all night.
The Cavs got contributions from everyone. Love got every rebund, Kyrie hit the game winner, Tristan plugged the lane with authority, even Shumpert had a big four point play. JR Smith gave them some big buckets early in the 3rd quarter (not sure why the Cavs went away from him, he was Warrior hot for a while there). And Lebron (MVP) was his usual badass self: led all players in points, rebounds, blocks, and everything else--and this was in a seven game series against the greatest single season team of all time! I can't believe Lebron still has haters out there but Twitter assures me it is so. *smh*
But let's keep one thing in mind: the Warriors played awful and the Cavs played flawlessly and it was still close very late in the game. The Warriors struggled with injuries and suspensions, Klay never found the form that he had earlier in the playoffs and Barnes disappeared completely, and they still could've won games Five and Seven. Last year we downgraded the Warriors performance because they faced so many compromised squads, so this year I think its important to remember that they were the compromised squad and still should've won it all. The Cavs played three great games in a row to pull off the improbable but the Warriors still had the best team from beginning of the season to the end (well, til about the last 3-4 minutes anyway). Furthermore, I expect the Warriors to re-load (Batum, Teletovic and Tyler Zeller and they'll win 65 games without much problem). Great series, memorable, congrats to Lebron in particular.
(Through it all I couldn't help thinking of Russell Westbrook sitting on his couch watching the Cavs come back on the Warriors. That guy is already getting in shape for next year, a contract year for him, he wants to start next season TODAY! Right now, he's my pre-pre-pre-season pick for MVP. I expect him to be on a mission to destroy everyone he faces)
Klay and Curry did not shoot particularly well and still the game went into the last few minutes. Draymond was absolutely brilliant, Iguodala played his best but really no one else played well. Can't figure out why Livingston didn't play more and why on earth was Ezeli out there late in the game? Harrison Barnes was just terrible (for the last three games really) and Speights never really got a chance to do anything. The longer the series went on the more discombobulated the Warriors got. And without Klay and/or Curry piling on points, the Warriors were grinding their wheels all night.
The Cavs got contributions from everyone. Love got every rebund, Kyrie hit the game winner, Tristan plugged the lane with authority, even Shumpert had a big four point play. JR Smith gave them some big buckets early in the 3rd quarter (not sure why the Cavs went away from him, he was Warrior hot for a while there). And Lebron (MVP) was his usual badass self: led all players in points, rebounds, blocks, and everything else--and this was in a seven game series against the greatest single season team of all time! I can't believe Lebron still has haters out there but Twitter assures me it is so. *smh*
But let's keep one thing in mind: the Warriors played awful and the Cavs played flawlessly and it was still close very late in the game. The Warriors struggled with injuries and suspensions, Klay never found the form that he had earlier in the playoffs and Barnes disappeared completely, and they still could've won games Five and Seven. Last year we downgraded the Warriors performance because they faced so many compromised squads, so this year I think its important to remember that they were the compromised squad and still should've won it all. The Cavs played three great games in a row to pull off the improbable but the Warriors still had the best team from beginning of the season to the end (well, til about the last 3-4 minutes anyway). Furthermore, I expect the Warriors to re-load (Batum, Teletovic and Tyler Zeller and they'll win 65 games without much problem). Great series, memorable, congrats to Lebron in particular.
(Through it all I couldn't help thinking of Russell Westbrook sitting on his couch watching the Cavs come back on the Warriors. That guy is already getting in shape for next year, a contract year for him, he wants to start next season TODAY! Right now, he's my pre-pre-pre-season pick for MVP. I expect him to be on a mission to destroy everyone he faces)
Friday, June 3, 2016
Cavs-Warriors, Game One
Here's the moment:
The Cavs had been on a run, even briefly taking the lead after being down by as much as 16 in the 3rd. But after this play, Iguodala went hognutty on both ends and Livingston was just untouchable. Warriors outscored the Cavs 33-21 for the rest of the game and comfortably took Game One.
I don't think the play was malicious, I think Dellavadova was anticipating Iguodala bringing the ball from his left hand back to his right, but he didn't which led Delly's hand to go crotchways. I think not calling a technical was the correct call, it was a foul but not a technical. I don't blame Iguodala for being pissed and he handled in the right way, namely by stroking jumpers and playing pesky D to close out the game. (The weird part of the play to me: Delly lunges at Iguodala and as Iguodala reacts, look at Delly's eyes...what the hell is he looking at? Not the ref, not a teammate, not the man he's supposed to be guarding, it seems too quick for him to be reacting to the whistle but he is intently looking at....something)
This was an awkward loss for the Cavs because Steph and Klay didn't really do much of anything (I believe it was their lowest collective output all year long!) and the Cavs still couldn't make a dent. JR Smith played 37 minutes and took only 3 shots (3?!?!), so there was a missing component for the Cavs offense but that hardly felt like the problem. The problem is the Cavs' D...or lack thereof. Man, Kyrie's defense is bloody awful! He was lost at all times, looking dangerously like Enes Kanter out there. Kyrie had better score a lot and at a very high efficiency if his defense is going to be this bad.
The Warrior bench came up big and if that keeps happening then this series will be over quick. I think the Cavs can clamp down on Steph or Klay or Draymond but if they're getting torched by Barbosa, then what's the point? The Cavs need to hit a lot of 3's to keep this series going and I suspect they will have one, maybe two games were they get hot enough to keep the Warriors at bay. But the D is not gonna shut down Golden State. I said Warriors in 7 but now I'm thinking a gentleman's sweep is more likely.
The Cavs had been on a run, even briefly taking the lead after being down by as much as 16 in the 3rd. But after this play, Iguodala went hognutty on both ends and Livingston was just untouchable. Warriors outscored the Cavs 33-21 for the rest of the game and comfortably took Game One.
I don't think the play was malicious, I think Dellavadova was anticipating Iguodala bringing the ball from his left hand back to his right, but he didn't which led Delly's hand to go crotchways. I think not calling a technical was the correct call, it was a foul but not a technical. I don't blame Iguodala for being pissed and he handled in the right way, namely by stroking jumpers and playing pesky D to close out the game. (The weird part of the play to me: Delly lunges at Iguodala and as Iguodala reacts, look at Delly's eyes...what the hell is he looking at? Not the ref, not a teammate, not the man he's supposed to be guarding, it seems too quick for him to be reacting to the whistle but he is intently looking at....something)
This was an awkward loss for the Cavs because Steph and Klay didn't really do much of anything (I believe it was their lowest collective output all year long!) and the Cavs still couldn't make a dent. JR Smith played 37 minutes and took only 3 shots (3?!?!), so there was a missing component for the Cavs offense but that hardly felt like the problem. The problem is the Cavs' D...or lack thereof. Man, Kyrie's defense is bloody awful! He was lost at all times, looking dangerously like Enes Kanter out there. Kyrie had better score a lot and at a very high efficiency if his defense is going to be this bad.
The Warrior bench came up big and if that keeps happening then this series will be over quick. I think the Cavs can clamp down on Steph or Klay or Draymond but if they're getting torched by Barbosa, then what's the point? The Cavs need to hit a lot of 3's to keep this series going and I suspect they will have one, maybe two games were they get hot enough to keep the Warriors at bay. But the D is not gonna shut down Golden State. I said Warriors in 7 but now I'm thinking a gentleman's sweep is more likely.
Thursday, June 2, 2016
NBA Finals Prediction
I'll go basic: Warriors in 7. To put it simply if Steph and Klay shoot the lights out, the Warriors will easily win. I'm guessing they'll do that four times out of seven. This Cavs team is better than last year's model and they're playing well right now so I expect them to win games (maybe even Game Two in Oaktown) but the Warriors FG% will determine this series. I expect Kyrie to have one big game, Lebron to have one big game and the Cavs supporting cast in general to have one big game and that will carry this series to seven games. I'm not convinced that the Warriors completely have their mojo even after that fine comeback against OKC and Draymond is only a meltdown away from really screwing up this series. But the Warriors are solid unit, they've been here before (whereas really most of the Cavs have not) and they shoot well enough to outscore most anybody. I think this series will be more competitive than most commentators think but I'll stick with the defending champs to hold on.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
NBA Finals (Final)
Going into the Warrior-Cav series, I saw the matchup through two separate prisms: what Lebron endured with the Heat against the Spurs last year and how the Warriors handled the Rockets in the previous round. Turns out it was a replay of the Warrors-Grizzlies match in the 2nd round: Warriors shaky for the first three games, then in overdrive for the next three games.
There was no way the Cavs were gonna win this series. In basketball having the best player is a hell of an advantage but even that gets neutralized over time: the advantage is in the efficiency that one all-world dude can bring but when he has to do EVERYTHING then the numbers suffer and cracks appear. James Harden carried the Rockets to the Conference Finals by himself but the Warriors were just too deep; ditto for Lebron carrying the Cavs.
Iguodala as MVP is a fine choice, I reckon. Not sure how Curry got zero votes and personally I would've gone with Lebron. But Lebron was lackluster in game 6 (I'll say it: that was the quietest 32/15/9 you'll ever see) and Iguodala definitely had an impact on the series (though you could say the same for Draymond, Klay and Livingston too).
Going forward the Cavs look to integrate Love and Kyrie, re-up Tristan and Mozgov (and move on from Smith, Shumpert and Dellavedova) and come back stronger next year. They'll be over the cap (not my problem) and I can't help wondering who the coach will be (Mark Jackson? John Calipari? David Blatt? (heh heh, jk)) but the Cavs should dominate the East next year (though the Heat, Pacers, Celtics and Wizards all look interesting).
The Warriors seem to be in dynasty mode but I'm not so sure. They have to get rid of David Lee, they might have to get rid of Maurice Speights too and they might still want to move Iguodala after that. The team will still be really good but they had amazing depth (and health) this year and when that starts to slip, injuries creep in, losing streaks start to happen--I'm not saying its all over for the Warriors, but I don't see how they could be this good again next year. (Well, this Warrior team is one of the single best teams I ever saw, can't imagine anybody being that good next year)
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
NBA Finals (Game 3)
(Wasn't able to do a Finals 2-game wrap-up, I'll do a 3-game wrap-up instead. I'd like to write more French Open Finals and Women's World Cup, hopefully those come tomorrow as well)
I like the Warriors to throw down tonight. Returning to the Heat-Spurs from last year: Game 3 was when Lebron realized he was all alone, everything floundered down to nothing and the Spurs ran wild. This season I'd say we've already seen more out of Thompson, Mozgov, Dellavedova and Smith too than we thought we would. Upside: Lebron's got parts to work with; Downside: if the Warriors won the next 3 games by 40 points, we'd still be raving about what a great Final those Cavs dude had; Meaning: maybe Lebron's got a crew and maybe that crew will be gone when he wakes up in the morning. We'll see tonight.
Warriors are (-2) tonight, indicating that Vegas (the undisputed god of analytics) still thinks the Warriors are the vastly superior team though they've hardly looked vastly superior to anything so far. For all the lack of scoring and rebounding, the Warriors still should've pulled out Game 2 (I thought they would right up to that goofy pass Steph tried to thread to Klay), so as horribly as they've all played (none of the Warriors have played great by any means), they're still tied with good reason to be optimistic. I predicted before the series that the Warriors would be ready to lay a smackdown in Game 3, I'll stick with it. This may be what they've been waiting for.
The Cavs are overachieving better than anyone could've imagined and Lebron is as monstrous as I can recall. His game is huge at every moment (his mistakes generally coming from fatigue from having to do so much, I'd say). Mozgov is scoring legit points, Thompson is showing himself to be a high level rebounder, Dellevadova is making the most of his opportunities, Lebron is a whole new level of wizardry. Tough to bet against the best when he's got his crew running and they're back at home, but I can't help thinking that the Warriors should still be the better team. I think tonight the Warriors pull it together and rip.
I like the Warriors to throw down tonight. Returning to the Heat-Spurs from last year: Game 3 was when Lebron realized he was all alone, everything floundered down to nothing and the Spurs ran wild. This season I'd say we've already seen more out of Thompson, Mozgov, Dellavedova and Smith too than we thought we would. Upside: Lebron's got parts to work with; Downside: if the Warriors won the next 3 games by 40 points, we'd still be raving about what a great Final those Cavs dude had; Meaning: maybe Lebron's got a crew and maybe that crew will be gone when he wakes up in the morning. We'll see tonight.
Warriors are (-2) tonight, indicating that Vegas (the undisputed god of analytics) still thinks the Warriors are the vastly superior team though they've hardly looked vastly superior to anything so far. For all the lack of scoring and rebounding, the Warriors still should've pulled out Game 2 (I thought they would right up to that goofy pass Steph tried to thread to Klay), so as horribly as they've all played (none of the Warriors have played great by any means), they're still tied with good reason to be optimistic. I predicted before the series that the Warriors would be ready to lay a smackdown in Game 3, I'll stick with it. This may be what they've been waiting for.
The Cavs are overachieving better than anyone could've imagined and Lebron is as monstrous as I can recall. His game is huge at every moment (his mistakes generally coming from fatigue from having to do so much, I'd say). Mozgov is scoring legit points, Thompson is showing himself to be a high level rebounder, Dellevadova is making the most of his opportunities, Lebron is a whole new level of wizardry. Tough to bet against the best when he's got his crew running and they're back at home, but I can't help thinking that the Warriors should still be the better team. I think tonight the Warriors pull it together and rip.
Thursday, June 4, 2015
NBA Finals
Cavs
Lebron is currently averaging 27.6ppg/10.8rpg/8.3apg. Dang. He's gonna need to up the points to about 32 and average a triple double in the Finals to even come close to winning. He'll probably do that and still not come close to winning.
Kyrie does not seem to be at 100%. I thought the Hawks would run him ragged, turns out they never got the chance. If he's healthy, the Cavs can pile up points and stay in games; if he's not I just don't see how the Cavs outscore the Warriors.
I've been impressed with the Thompson-Mozgov tagteam down low. They banged well against the Bulls, thought they'd be outplayed by the nimble Hawks by they were not. Indeed, I'd say it was the implacability of Thompson and Mozgov around the basket that spelled the Hawks' doom. The Warriors are surprisingly tough down low (considering what a finesse team they are), I think Thompson-Mozgov will handle themselves just fine, taking away 2nd chance points may be crucial, but I can't see them being the difference-maker in any kind of Cav victory.
Smith is playing out of his mind right now. If he stays this good, then he'll make a for-real contribution and could be the difference between pulling it out or not. But if he's anything less than this good (and he'll be getting marked by Klay/Iguodala/Barnes/Livingston), the Cavs won't be able to put enough on the scoreboard to hang.
Shumpert is the defensive maestro but how do you maximize his contribution? Put him on Curry and he'll run around all day, make no difference and give you no points. Put him on Klay, he'll have to body up, run the risk of foul trouble, and he still gives the Cavs no points. Put him on Barnes and the other guys are free to bomb away. There are no good cards in that hand. In the end, seems like Shumpert's offensive production can't help but suffer regardless of how his defense holds up.
I think Dellavadova's run of surprising success ends here. The Hawks were outmanned without Sefolosha, Carroll, Korver and Horford; the Warriors are not outmanned and Iguodala is probably clearing a space on his wall for the head of Dellavadova (jeez, that's kinda gruesome). But, seriously, Dellavadova's Barea-like game is not gonna get the best of the Warriors.
Mike Miller is averaging fewer FGA's than anyone else on the Cavs. Less shot attempts per game than Shawn Marion, Kendrick Perkins, even fewer attempts than Brendan Haywood--who I didn't even know existed! I thought Brendan Haywood was just a glitch in the contract matrix, a Keyser Soza-like character GMs whisper about to each other. Turns out Haywood is real and he's there at the ready on that Cav bench....perhaps he's the secret weapon....
Warriors
Curry is money. Before game 2 against the Grizzlies, Curry was presented with his MVP trophy, then went out and played one of his crappier games of the year; he wasn't quite right in game 3 but when push came to shove in game 4, he re-established himself and has been his usual badass self for 8 straight games. I anticipate he will be at full money for the next 4-7 games.
Klay Thompson is coming off 'concussion-like symptoms' after getting kneed in the brain by Trevor Ariza. If he's money, he is the front line of the great Warrior defense. I expect him to outplay Smith and/or Shumpert.
Barnes is a bonus wild card on both ends of the court for the Warriors: they don't really need him, he just adds. He's a good defender, good driver, decent shooter, good passer, good team concept guy. Smith and Shumpert are nice players but neither brings the intangibles that Barnes possesses.
Draymond Green should've won Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved, if he plays his cards right, he might snag Finals MVP instead. Don't be surprised if Green is the one that really holds it all together for the Warriors. If Green outplays the Thompson-Mozgov monster, then he'll be scoring plenty of points, getting plenty of rebounds and contributing plenty of highlights, those are the kinda of things the thinking-man's basketball fan loves and if Green really rocks out, then Curry might not need to rock out himself, don't be surprised if Green sneaks the MVP. (Currently 2nd most in Minutes Played, FTA's, assists, steals, blocks for the Warriors this post-season)
Bogut is the crafty veteran that Thompson and Mozgov aren't. I can't see Bogut dominating those two but nor can I see getting dominated by those two. I tend to think the Bogut-Green vs Thompson-Moagov battle will be mostly a standstill but the Warriors will get the extra opportunities that will crush the Cavs.
Iguodala has played the 5th most minutes for the Warriors this post-season, meaning he is rested and ready to ball out for this last series. I expect him to play great, he'll mark Lebron at times and he'll get a lot of assists. (Could be auditioning for a job outside of Golden State...?)
Livingston and Barbosa bring size and sure hands off the bench. They'll smother Dellevadova. (Livingston has zero 3FGA's this post-season...isn't that weird?)
I've been pretty impressed with Ezeli, not sure I'd ever seen him play before the Rockets series. He'll bring (if nothing else) fouls off the bench. If he can deter Mozgov or Tompson at all, he'll be doing his job.
Lee has barely played this off-season, Speights has been injured but I think he's ready to play. Are these guys the wild cards? I doubt it but they could be. The Warriors have so much scoring depth that they often win by just flat out burying teams; if they can reach this far down their bench and still bring in competent scorers, they could blast open a 3rd quarter and end the game quick-like. Lee is a crafty vet, hasn't played much but if/when he does come off the bench you expect him to be able to contribute; Speights too. The Cavs don't have anything like that at the end of their bench, the Warriors do.
Prediction
Think back to the Heat-Spurs match up last year: the first two games were very competitive, the Heat should've won them both but were only able to pull out Game 2. Now think back to the Rockets-Warriors series we just watched: the first two games were very competitive, certainly not blowouts, but the Warriors were able to hang on to both victories. I think the first two games of this series will be similar: they'll both tight, tough, deep into the 4th quarter kinda games, but I think the Warriors win them both.
(Heat-Spurs Game 3) Lebron wakes up, realizes he's all alone and gets drubbed by the superior Spurs for three straight games. (Rockets-Warriors) Back in Houston for Game 3, the Warriors laid an unholy beatdown on the Rockets, taking control of the game and the series, then cruising to the finish. I think Games 3 & 4 back in Cleveland don't go well for the Cavs. Lebron has carried this team through the East but the Warriors are just better in every way and when they get the 2-0 lead, they will bring the hammer of Thor down on the Cavs in Game 3. And I don't think they stop there, I don't think they give Lebron a chance to pull it together: they jaked it against the Rockets in game 4 (just as the Clippers had in the previous round), but I don't think they'll mess around with Lebron.
Much has been made of the lack of the Warriors' playoff experience and in the NBA that definitely makes a difference. But in this case I think the Warriors will be better served by the lack of experience: I think they'll treat the Cavs will total and absolute respect and play full throttle at all times. The Warriors have won close games, they've won the blowouts and they've been playing better teams than the Cavs all year long; the Cavs haven't played anyone as good as the Warriors right now. The Cavs are not perfectly healthy, the Warriors are. Lebron is still the best and I've been wrong betting against him already but the Warriors are so much better and plenty well tested by this point.
Warriors in 4.
Lebron is currently averaging 27.6ppg/10.8rpg/8.3apg. Dang. He's gonna need to up the points to about 32 and average a triple double in the Finals to even come close to winning. He'll probably do that and still not come close to winning.
Kyrie does not seem to be at 100%. I thought the Hawks would run him ragged, turns out they never got the chance. If he's healthy, the Cavs can pile up points and stay in games; if he's not I just don't see how the Cavs outscore the Warriors.
I've been impressed with the Thompson-Mozgov tagteam down low. They banged well against the Bulls, thought they'd be outplayed by the nimble Hawks by they were not. Indeed, I'd say it was the implacability of Thompson and Mozgov around the basket that spelled the Hawks' doom. The Warriors are surprisingly tough down low (considering what a finesse team they are), I think Thompson-Mozgov will handle themselves just fine, taking away 2nd chance points may be crucial, but I can't see them being the difference-maker in any kind of Cav victory.
Smith is playing out of his mind right now. If he stays this good, then he'll make a for-real contribution and could be the difference between pulling it out or not. But if he's anything less than this good (and he'll be getting marked by Klay/Iguodala/Barnes/Livingston), the Cavs won't be able to put enough on the scoreboard to hang.
Shumpert is the defensive maestro but how do you maximize his contribution? Put him on Curry and he'll run around all day, make no difference and give you no points. Put him on Klay, he'll have to body up, run the risk of foul trouble, and he still gives the Cavs no points. Put him on Barnes and the other guys are free to bomb away. There are no good cards in that hand. In the end, seems like Shumpert's offensive production can't help but suffer regardless of how his defense holds up.
I think Dellavadova's run of surprising success ends here. The Hawks were outmanned without Sefolosha, Carroll, Korver and Horford; the Warriors are not outmanned and Iguodala is probably clearing a space on his wall for the head of Dellavadova (jeez, that's kinda gruesome). But, seriously, Dellavadova's Barea-like game is not gonna get the best of the Warriors.
Jones has played the 8th most amount of minutes for the Cavs during this playoff run and I suppose that will continue on into the Final. I can see Perkins coming in for thug moments, Harris in case of foul trouble, Miller in mop up time, Marion if absolutely everything is going wrong, and Haywood only plays if a comet hits the bus and everyone's dead. K Love is not available at all.
Curry is money. Before game 2 against the Grizzlies, Curry was presented with his MVP trophy, then went out and played one of his crappier games of the year; he wasn't quite right in game 3 but when push came to shove in game 4, he re-established himself and has been his usual badass self for 8 straight games. I anticipate he will be at full money for the next 4-7 games.
Klay Thompson is coming off 'concussion-like symptoms' after getting kneed in the brain by Trevor Ariza. If he's money, he is the front line of the great Warrior defense. I expect him to outplay Smith and/or Shumpert.
Barnes is a bonus wild card on both ends of the court for the Warriors: they don't really need him, he just adds. He's a good defender, good driver, decent shooter, good passer, good team concept guy. Smith and Shumpert are nice players but neither brings the intangibles that Barnes possesses.
Draymond Green should've won Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved, if he plays his cards right, he might snag Finals MVP instead. Don't be surprised if Green is the one that really holds it all together for the Warriors. If Green outplays the Thompson-Mozgov monster, then he'll be scoring plenty of points, getting plenty of rebounds and contributing plenty of highlights, those are the kinda of things the thinking-man's basketball fan loves and if Green really rocks out, then Curry might not need to rock out himself, don't be surprised if Green sneaks the MVP. (Currently 2nd most in Minutes Played, FTA's, assists, steals, blocks for the Warriors this post-season)
Bogut is the crafty veteran that Thompson and Mozgov aren't. I can't see Bogut dominating those two but nor can I see getting dominated by those two. I tend to think the Bogut-Green vs Thompson-Moagov battle will be mostly a standstill but the Warriors will get the extra opportunities that will crush the Cavs.
Iguodala has played the 5th most minutes for the Warriors this post-season, meaning he is rested and ready to ball out for this last series. I expect him to play great, he'll mark Lebron at times and he'll get a lot of assists. (Could be auditioning for a job outside of Golden State...?)
Livingston and Barbosa bring size and sure hands off the bench. They'll smother Dellevadova. (Livingston has zero 3FGA's this post-season...isn't that weird?)
I've been pretty impressed with Ezeli, not sure I'd ever seen him play before the Rockets series. He'll bring (if nothing else) fouls off the bench. If he can deter Mozgov or Tompson at all, he'll be doing his job.
Lee has barely played this off-season, Speights has been injured but I think he's ready to play. Are these guys the wild cards? I doubt it but they could be. The Warriors have so much scoring depth that they often win by just flat out burying teams; if they can reach this far down their bench and still bring in competent scorers, they could blast open a 3rd quarter and end the game quick-like. Lee is a crafty vet, hasn't played much but if/when he does come off the bench you expect him to be able to contribute; Speights too. The Cavs don't have anything like that at the end of their bench, the Warriors do.
Prediction
Think back to the Heat-Spurs match up last year: the first two games were very competitive, the Heat should've won them both but were only able to pull out Game 2. Now think back to the Rockets-Warriors series we just watched: the first two games were very competitive, certainly not blowouts, but the Warriors were able to hang on to both victories. I think the first two games of this series will be similar: they'll both tight, tough, deep into the 4th quarter kinda games, but I think the Warriors win them both.
(Heat-Spurs Game 3) Lebron wakes up, realizes he's all alone and gets drubbed by the superior Spurs for three straight games. (Rockets-Warriors) Back in Houston for Game 3, the Warriors laid an unholy beatdown on the Rockets, taking control of the game and the series, then cruising to the finish. I think Games 3 & 4 back in Cleveland don't go well for the Cavs. Lebron has carried this team through the East but the Warriors are just better in every way and when they get the 2-0 lead, they will bring the hammer of Thor down on the Cavs in Game 3. And I don't think they stop there, I don't think they give Lebron a chance to pull it together: they jaked it against the Rockets in game 4 (just as the Clippers had in the previous round), but I don't think they'll mess around with Lebron.
Much has been made of the lack of the Warriors' playoff experience and in the NBA that definitely makes a difference. But in this case I think the Warriors will be better served by the lack of experience: I think they'll treat the Cavs will total and absolute respect and play full throttle at all times. The Warriors have won close games, they've won the blowouts and they've been playing better teams than the Cavs all year long; the Cavs haven't played anyone as good as the Warriors right now. The Cavs are not perfectly healthy, the Warriors are. Lebron is still the best and I've been wrong betting against him already but the Warriors are so much better and plenty well tested by this point.
Warriors in 4.
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