2022-23 NBA Playoffs (3rd Round, 5 games in)

Lakers 126-132 Nuggets

Lakers 103-108 Nuggets

Nuggets 119-108 Lakers

Nuggets 113-111 Lakers

Game One felt to me like it would be the template of the series: Nuggets came out dominant, built a huge lead, Jokic was breaking NBA records by halftime and then the Lakers salted away that lead and came close to overtaking the home team, when the Nuggets put the clamp down on (scrum at the Lakers end led to a breakaway dunk for Gordon with about a minute to go and that was that). Takeaway: Nuggets offense is pretty great and their defense is pretty bad. 

But the next three games went the other way: Lakers came out strong but couldn't ever really hold the Nuggets off. Can't tell you how many times the Lakers would go on a crazy run, getting buckets, making plays, got all the momentum....and you'd look up and they're ahead by 4....really? This Nuggets team doesn't stay cold for long and no matter how bad their D is, they've always got a chance to seal it late. And they did in each of the last three games. 

The Lakers had a nice run after a sloppy regular season but they just weren't as good as the Nuggets (were they really better than the Grizzlies or Warriors?) and Lebron's first loss in the final four was the end result. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura were the big revelations (and the next big off-season question marks), so Laker fans can still say they had a good season and look forward to next year. And, in true look-at-me fashion, Lebron hinted at retirement (*), so we talked about that for a week rather than acknowledging the obvious truth that the Nuggets are the best team and Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league right now.  

Heat 123-116 Celtics

Heat 111-105 Celtics

Celtics 128-102 Heat

Celtics 102-82 Heat 

Heat 97-110 Celtics

The Heat just outplayed the Celtics in the first two games in Boston, then mopped the floor with the listless Celtics in Game Three. But the Celtics woke up, rode a hot 3rd quarter to a season-saving W in Game Four and then came out hot (and the Heat kinda mailed it in) in Game Five to keep the series alive. 

Right off the bat: all the Celtics looked great in Game Five and utterly awful in Game Three. But otherwise, Jaysun Tatum has been good not great, Jaylen Brown has been ineffective (to use the charitable term), Robert Williams has actually been pretty great but Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Al Horford have all been okay in the wins and not so good in the losses. 

For the Heat Jimmy Butler was dominant in the 3 W's and MIA (**) in the two losses. Man, something I noticed about Bam Adebayo: he's typically always great at either defense or offense but he's never great (or bad) at BOTH ends and, holy shit, that kid never gets any calls! Considering how hard he works and what a nice guy he seems like, it's kind of amazing how little love he gets from the refs. Caleb Martin has been great all through this post-season--I'd say he's the real difference maker on this year's run. Kyle Lowry veers between sneaky good and utterly unplayable. Duncan Robinson has returned to the rotation and occasionally looks like really good. Max Struss has generally been good, though he strangely disappeared in Game Five. Gabe Vincent has been nice and they even got some good minutes out of Heywood Highsmith. 

The reason the Heat found themselves up 3-0 in the conference finals is because they've been hitting crazy shots (especially Martin) for three straight rounds now. If that continues, they'll mow down the Celtics; if it doesn't, they'll have to dig deep because the momentum has swung back  to the Celtics, who suddenly have nothing left to lose.

I think the Heat will win tonight--and if they don't, I still think they'll win in Game Seven back in Boston. So though I picked the Celtics in 7, still very much on the table, I wasn't that enthusiastic about that pick and even though they seem to have right the ship, I'm still dubious of their chances of taking two more from the Heat. Looking forward to Game Six tonight because both teams need to bring it. 

The Celtics coming back from 3-0 would be one of the weirder things I've seen in the NBA in a while--and that's considering the #1 Bucks got dusted, the #2 Grizzlies couldn't hang, the defending champ Warriors (***) stumbled around all season long and the left-for-dead Lakers made a run to the final four. Been a weird season, weird playoffs--and a weird summer awaits! 

(*) Will Lebron retire this summer? No fuckin' way! The only scenario that would keep Lebron from coming back next year is if this summer's surgery goes horribly horribly wrong, which I don't anticipate will happen. So unless Lebron gets hit by a comet, I fully expect him to be back next season. 

(**) "Ask me why...am I....M-I-A...Am I in heaven or am I in Miami"....Ah, an old favorite. 

(***) Weird observation. The Nuggets swept the Lakers but all four games were competitive. I can't help thinking that if the Nuggets had played the Warriors instead, the Warriors would've gotten hot and stole a game...but would've gotten absolutely curb stomped in the other four games. Does that make sense? Nuggets-Lakers was a tennis match where the two competitors were actually pretty close though the scoreline looks like a walkover, whereas the Nuggets-Warriors would've been a pummeling where the scoreline would've looked a little less bad for the loser. Weird season, man, and I love it. 

2022-23 Champions League (Semifinals)

1st leg 

Real Madrid 1-1Manchester City

Man City dominated possession in the 1st half and slowly built to getting decent rips on the goal but Madrid's D seemed sturdy enough to keep them out. Meanwhile, though Real seemingly barely touched the ball, their breakaways generated some nice looks and not long before the half, Vini was able to rip one from about 25 yards out (nice!) that found the goal. I expected the 1-0 lead to hold up but Man City was able to get the equalizer (a lovely rip from 25 yards out by De Bruyne). Good game, thought Real was probably the better side but the game ended tied, so the second leg has all the makings for an old timey barnburner. 

AC Milan 0-2 Inter Milan

Inter blitzed AC in the first 10 minutes, netting two goals, another shot off the post and a point blank whiff that would've made an incredibly deep hole for the home side. The two goals held up because after that neither team could maintain any control of the game. Not a bad game, certainly not boring, but the last 80 minutes or so were rather uneventful.

2nd leg

Inter Milan 1-0 (3-0) AC Milan

AC Milan had more confident possessions, but Inter was more dangerous around the goal all the way through. They finally broke through around the 70th minute and that was pretty much it. AC Milan never got anything going in this match. But outside of 10 minutes of brutal dominance in the 1st leg, Inter was so casual that its hard to tell how good they actually are. Well, they're into the Final so you gotta give them a puncher's chance at least. 

Manchester City 3-0 (4-1) Real Madrid

Wow, what a thrashing! Real Madrid just never had the ball, they could not get the ball forward to Benzema and Vini, both of whom were virtually invisible for 90 minutes. Man City dominated--DOMINATED--possession early on, peppered the goal routinely, felt like it was just a matter of time before they connected on a corner but they didn't even need it. Bernardo slipped the back line, received the nifty pass and finished strong, then a little later on was the beneficiary of chaos in the box and was able to head one home before the half. There was still a sliver of a chance that Real was gonna make the 2nd half a game but they just couldn't maintain possession. When Man City connected on a free kick (an own-goal technically) around the 70th minute was the end of it. 

Final

Inter Milan - Manchester City

My gut tells me that Man City is going to control the ball and get a lot more opportunities around the goal. That doesn't mean they'll win but seems like that offense is more consistent and dangerous. I managed to watch hardly any of Inter's matches (missed 2nd legs against Porto and Benfica), so I don't have a real feel for this side. But they rolled AC Milan, so I'm assuming they don't suck, but I still don't have any grasp on this team. Gotta go with Man City, though I'm ready to be pleasantly surprised. 

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (3rd Round)

Celtics over Sixers in 7

Weird series in that it struck me that the Celtics were the superior side in 6 of the 7 games, should've wrapped up this series much sooner. But James Harden was kinda great down the stretch in Game One, Joel Embiid made big plays down the stretch in Game Four, and the Celtics were supremely awful in Game Five and that was enough to get this to a Game Seven. As for Game Seven, well, it was a replay of the Warriors-Kings Game Seven, no? Close game at the half, then the Sixers (Kings) utterly self-destructed in the 2nd half and the Celtics (Warriors) ended up winning in a blow out. Jaysun Tatum was great in Game Seven, overcoming a serious funk that plagued him in the previous two games, and while I don't want to diminish his performance, man, this was all about the Sixers coming apart. Embiid got torched on defense, Harden's playmaking dried up and the Sixers flailed badly on both ends throughout the 3rd quarter. The Celtics were better, so much better that they should've won much sooner. 

Heat over Knicks in 6

Jalen Brunson! Unfortunately, he was the only one that showed up for the Knicks in this series and that's why the Knicks are heading for a soul-searching summer (*). The Heat over the last few seasons have shown that they can turn it on at a moment's notice as well as anyone around. If I were to tell you that a #8 seed was heading to the conference finals, would you be shocked it was the Miami Heat? Would you be surprised it was Coach Spoelstra? Would you be shocked the squad was led by Jimmy Butler? (Yeah, that's three straight "nah"s) So while I was skeptical of their offense (especially w/out broken-handed Tyler Herro), they just keep knocking down shots and finding ways to outscore their opponents. Not only did they knock out the #1 seed and the most exciting Knicks team in a coupla decades, they did it with seemingly much less effort than the Celtics expended dispatching the outmanned Hawks and the schizophrenic Sixers. Butler is balling, Bam Adebayo is playing good (but can play better), Duncan Robinson is back in the rotation, Kyle Lowry looks rejuvenated, and they're getting substantial contributions from Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin. 

Nuggets over Suns in 6

The Suns had a coupla big time home games from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant (and a killer night out of Landry Shamet) but that was all they had in them. The Nuggets are a blistering home team and just deeper and better and more reliable than this skimpy Suns team. When Chris Paul went out, to my mind it didn't make that much difference, but when the much-maligned Deandre Ayton sat out Game Six (good for you, young man, let those grumpy old assholes get a W without ya) that was all she wrote for the Suns (**). The Nuggets are the best team in the West and they're still getting better. 

Lakers over Warriors in 6

I thought, the Warriors needed at least 2 big games out of Klay Thompson just to have a chance and they got none. They needed Draymond Green to be extra-Draymond-y and....hmmmmm....he was rather placid in this series. They needed Jordan Poole to awake from his season-long slumber and that did not happen. They needed Andrew Wiggins to be his super human self, but in this post-season he never quite looked like his usual greatest-athlete-in-the-world self. Steph was great, Kevon Looney was solid and I thought Donte Divincenzo was a worthy contributor, but that just wasn't enough to even make a dent in this series. This Lakers team is sloppy and weird and took them the whole season to really get going, but at their best they have a nice collection of rotating contributors (Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Lonnie Walker, Dennis Shroder all had big time games) around their anchors of Lebron and Anthony Davis. The Lakers post-season hopes have always been all about the health of AD and so far he's balling out. 

Conference Championships

Heat - Celtics

The Heat have shown the ability to win games they shouldn't win and the Celtics have shown the ability to lose games they ought to win. So....the Celtics should be nervous even though they are clearly the better squad--better than the squad that beat the Heat in this spot last season! I will stick with the Celtics but, man, I would implore them to finish it in 6 because a Game Seven will be a tightening experience for them. *sigh* Okay, I'll take Celtics in 7. 

Lakers - Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the best team in the league this year, they have a unique home court advantage and they're still rounding into shape. The Lakers have played well, they've gotten good effort from the entire roster, rookie coach Ham doesn't look nervous out there, they're kinda playing with house money and as long as AD stays upright, they're gonna be a tough out. But the Nuggets are the better team and I think they're roll right by the Lakers. Nuggets in 6. 

(*) This summer's free agent class is not impressive and since the new CBA doesn't kick in until next summer, I expect a lot of trades this summer. Crazy trades, exotic deals, multiple-team trades. Virtually every team has at least one "problem" to deal with and the agents are gonna be wheelin' and dealin' behind the scenes and I think we're gonna see a truly weird summer. Looking forward to it!

(**) The Sixers and Suns have since already fired their coaches....why not the Knicks?

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 4 games in)

Sixers 2-2 Celtics

The Celtics have squandered two games, this series should probably be over and yet it is still very much in doubt. Joel Embiid has been good but not great but James Harden has brought it, confidently stroking 3's, controlling the tempo and hitting timely shots. The Sixer supporting cast has been okay, PJ Tucker has been Tucker-ing all over the place and I think George Niang is hitting big shots off the bench, but honestly this side isn't as good as the Celtics. So why are the Celtics not up 3-1 right now? I'm not sure, except that they don't dominate the 1st half and they kinda fall asleep in the 4th quarter rather routinely. Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a great duo but they never seem to both be great at the same time. And I feel like the Marcus Smart-Malcolm Brogdon-Derrick White rotation is more haphazard than you'd expect a defending conference champ to be in the playoffs. I still think the Celtics are better and I expect them to finish off the Sixers, but it might go 7 games (and it might get dicey down the stretch!). 

Heat 3-1 Knicks

The Knicks have overachieved, they were able to get over on the upstart Cavs but they don't have enough savvy to brush aside Jimmy Butler. The Heat keep knocking down big shots, keep making all the hustle plays and keep getting all the luck and while I kinda expect the Knicks to win Game Five back home, I wouldn't be shocked if the Heat knocked them out and had a nice rest before the next round. 

Suns 2-2 Nuggets

After the first two games, it felt like the Nuggets were going to steamroll the Suns, but back in Phoenix, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant got it going and got enough contributions from the bench (Landry Shamet had eye-popping offense in Game Four, but I thought his defense on Jamal Murray was excellent, too) to outpace the Nuggets. I still think the Nuggets are deeper and more reliable but in the playoffs, sometimes stars can carry teams and if this gets to Game Seven (looks like it will), it's gonna be a star-on-star battle. I'll stick with the Nuggets in 7 but it'll be a tougher slog than I thought it would. 

Lakers 3-1 Warriors

Yeah, this series kinda looks over but its still all about health. If the Lakers suffer some untimely injuries (*cough* Anthony Davis, I'm looking at you), then the Warriors could pull it together and get hot at the right time. But unless that happens, the Lakers depth suddenly looks formidable, getting strong contributions from D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Lonnie Walker to push this series to the edge. Probably over, but the Lakers still need to actually get it done before it's done.