(3) Notre Dame - (2) Clemson (-10.5) (55.5)
The playoff fuss this year was about Georgia getting bounced just for losing to Alabama in the SEC final, with the argument being something like: 'Georgia is really good and played Alabama as well as anyone has played them in years and we all know Notre Dame isn't that good'. I can dig that argument, in my final poll I had Notre Dame 5th behind Georgia and Oklahoma. But, Notre Dame beat every team they played this year, going undefeated has to be worth something, right? The haters say that their schedule wasn't that good....well, wait a second...their schedule was way tougher than Clemson's! Clemson hasn't played a good team all year! Notre Dame beat Michigan, Northwestern, Stanford, Virginia Tech and Syracuse and the traditional powerhouses (though they both kinda sucked this year) Florida State and Southern Cal; Clemson's best W's are no better than Notre Dame's (does a scuffling save at Texas A&M get you all worked up?), so if we're so set on Georgia, why wasn't there an argument to dump Clemson? Because we've seen Clemson beat Alabama before and we've seen Notre Dame lose to Alabama before, but those are specious arguments, they have nothing to do with what will be on the fields today. After all that, I gotta say I'm as guilty as everyone else: I think Clemson has better talent and better coaching and I just assume that what they can put on the field will be superior to Notre Dame. But I could be--we all could be--totally wrong about that. I'd love to see Notre Dame have a nice run here in the playoff, but no one believes that will happen and neither do I. I'll say Clemson 31-21 (Notre Dame and the under).
(4) Oklahoma - (1) Alabama (-14) (79.5)
Oklahoma has their usual unstoppable offense but this year's defense was not up to snuff; they're top 4 in record only, realistically this team does not look to present much challenge to Alabama. The question with Alabama all year long is roughly: are they really that much better than everyone else or will they fold if they actually face some real competition? Georgia put a bit of a scare into them at the SEC final but Bama coolly made the necessary corrections and got it done. I think Oklahoma's offense is even better than Georgia's and will score points on Alabama for a while. But OU's defense isn't going to stop Alabama, so it's only a matter of time before the Tide seizes control and puts the game away, though I can see this game still being fun into the 4th quarter. I'll say Alabama 44-31 (Oklahoma and the under).
(So I went with the dog and the under in both games, even though I expect the favorites to win rather easily...? Hmmm...we'll see how that goes)
Saturday, December 29, 2018
Thursday, December 20, 2018
2018-19 NFL (Week 15)
Games I watched (some of):
Chargers 29-28 Chiefs
Great game! Rivers threw a bad interception (he had his guy, just under threw the pass) on the opening drive, which the Chiefs quickly turned into a TD and it felt like this was gonna be vintage Chiefs. But the Chargers were able to sludge up that Chief attack (hmmm, has anyone done that this year?), keep the game kinda close and Rivers was able to move the ball on the mediocre Chiefs D (hmmm, maybe that defense's best game all year, no?). But when the Chiefs went up by two TD's early in the 4th, again it felt like they were gonna sneak away with the W. But Rivers was brilliant down the stretch and quickly got the Chargers a chance to win. And, yes, going for two at the end was the right play--even if it didn't work!--and the ballsy move paid off. Big big big W for the Chargers and tough L for the Chiefs (who didn't play badly), this might've swung the division and that is mind blowing considering how great the Chiefs have been all season long.
Packers 17-24 Bears
The Bears was better, not wildly better but enough better, and I sat there waiting for Rodgers to pull it out in the end...and...nah, that wasn't gonna happen. The Bears D is really really good, Trubisky is pretty good, the rushing attacks comes and goes, but in a parity season, the Bears have as good a shot as anyone at winning it all (yeah, "it all"!). The Packers are officially done for the season, they got a little bit of a bump after dumping Coach McCarthy but that last L to the Cards finished them off, I guess they shut down Rodgers, start evaluating player by player, I'd be surprised if they even came close to winning another game this year.
Raiders 16-30 Bengals
The Bengals are not good but they're playing hard right now and that'll keep them in games (keep an eye on them to cover spreads in the next coupla weeks). The Raiders are not good but...uh....they still have pretty cool uniforms.
Pats 10-17 Steelers
Surprised at how mediocre the Pats have been this year and this game was the highlight: the O line was not good, Edelman and Gordon dropped passes, Brady had the most inexplicable interception I've ever seen from him, and the defense did not rise to the occasion. That said, they still had their shot down the stretch (the last two drives, actually) to get it done, so it's not like the Steelers dominated anything. The Steelers have moments where that offense rises up and makes plays but not with any reliability and the D is shaky at best. The Steelers are still in the playoff race but that is kinda surprising, they'll need to beat suddenly feisty division foes to reach the post-season (and I'm not sure they get it done). The Pats have been down all year but they're still gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.
Eagles 30-23 Rams
Fun game! The Eagles had everything go their way, the Rams had everything fall apart for them. The Eagles had to go with Foles instead of Wentz and it was a nice shot in the arm for the Eagles--though they've been playing a little better lately. The popular theory on the Rams is that they frontloaded all their big signings and have no depth and now injuries are starting to cut into their efficiency--and I agree. They dominated for the first ten weeks or so but they've been very beatable lately, the vanilla offense is suddenly not at all impressive, the gambling on special teams isn't working, the defense is thin beyond the pass rush. The Rams are still good and have the ability to win games going forward but they look like they're slumping at the wrong time.
Other results (surprising):
Browns 17-16 Broncos
The Broncos had a nice stretch there where they looked like a legit playoff team but they still suck on the road and their lack of quality has brought them back to earth. The flipside is the Browns: they've got some talent but they're still young and they were sandbagged by a brutally awful coach for the first half of the year. Moving on from that dead weight has brought this team to life and they're playing much better down the stretch. Can the Browns actually make the playoffs? Nah, not seeing it, but the fact that they're hung around as long as they did is pretty miraculous (finally a good time to be a Browns fan again!). Not sure what the Broncos do for the rest of the season, not sure what's wrong with this team, they've had pleasant surprises on both sides of the ball but I reckon they'll make changes this off-season.
Saints 12-9 Panthers
The Saints have taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks and they're clearly not as good on the road, but I kinda thought the opportunity to dust off a division foe would bring out the best in them. Instead it seems like it was Cam Newton's questionable shoulder that sealed the victory for them. The Panthers are officially done, mailing it in from here (doubt they'll be covering any more spreads). The Saints are dominant at home, arguably the best team in the league and likely to finish 1st in the NFC....but...they're very beatable on the road and match up poorly against some folks they'll likely run into in the playoffs (I think the Seahawks and Bears could be troublesome for them, for example). I like the Saints, but I'm no more bullish on their chances than any number of other teams.
Other results (not so surprising):
Texans 29-22 Jets
The Texans have a good D and a good QB (I'm a big Watson fan) and a 9-game winning streak under their belt...so why are they so mediocre? I'm inclined to think they're pretty good and can be dangerous in the post-season but they are no dominant in any way and that's a little odd. I think they're gonna make the playoffs and be a tough out and this is a wide open year, so anything can happen (but is anyone betting on the Texans right now?). The Jets are spunky, they're just not any good, seems like they've got their QB but they'll need a new coach, so that'll keep the fans busy in the off-season.
Cards 14-40 Falcons
The Cards suck. The Falcons suck, too, but really they've just been exceptionally unlucky with injuries and when given the chance to run it up on a lame team at home, well, that's what happened. The Cards have their QB but not much else, they'll be busy in the off-season. The Falcons' injuries so warped their season that it's hard to tell what they need going forward, hard to see what the off-season looks like for them.
Lions 13-14 Bills
When two crappy teams get together, take the team that plays in Buffalo in December. Took them to the final play of the game to pull out the W, but the Bills got it. Yea! The Bills have a pretty good D (as always), a pretty good special teams (as always), a pretty good coach (I like McDermott), seem to have their QB (haven't had one of those in a while), just need to shore up that O-line (which, except for last year, has sucked for as long as anyone can remember) and bring in some skill players (they've had those over the years but never when they had a QB), they might be ready to take a run at the slipping-down Pats, right? The Lions have always sucked and frankly I think they've shown some spunk, if that defense becomes as good as it's supposed to be, they can be a real pain in the ass squad.
Cowboys 0-23 Colts
The Colts started slow but they're peaking at the right time, gonna be a tough out in the playoffs (they're not in yet but I like their chances) and are moving in the right direction for the first time in a few years. The Cowboys, too, have been playing better lately but they're still quite capable of laying an egg on the road and that's what happened here. The Cowboys are still in the driver's seat to take their division but they can have any more games like this.
Dolphins 17-41 Vikings
Dolphins suck on the road, this is not a shock. The Vikings ought to be better than they are and every once in while they actually are. The Dolphins are technically still in the playoff hunt but I'm not feeling their chances; the Vikings are, too, and I think they've got a good shot at being a real pain in the ass for someone.
Titans 17-0 Giants
The Giants are...man, they're the Giants...they're gonna replace Eli with Flacco, draft a QB in the 4th round and then declare that they're ready to take over the world. (Seriously, don't be at all surprised if they do all that) The Titans are weird, man, sometimes they look really good on both sides of the ball, other times they look like little kids fighting in the cafeteria. The Titans are still around, if the Colts and Texans mess around, the Titans could sneak in (but, unlike every other team I've mentioned so far, I don't like their chances to do anything in the playoffs).
Redskins 16-13 Jags
These teams both suck, looks like the Jags sucked a little more this week.
Bucs 12-20 Ravens
The Bucs are not good but they're playing loose right now (some bad teams mail it in, some teams play hard down the stretch and surprise people, Bucs could be one of those latter squads) but the Ravens at home are not going down to sub-standard teams like this. I gotta feeling the Ravens overtake the Steelers, we'll see.
Seahawks 23-26 (OT) Niners
Called it. The Seahawks have been playing well lately, seem to be getting their identity back on defense, Russell Wilson is moving the ball well, they've got their eyes on the playoffs, their momentum in positive....meanwhile, the Niners suck balls. But, it's a division game, anything can happen, man. You know the right thing for the Niners to do is roll over, take the L, get a better draft position and write this horrible nightmare season off. Yeah, but football players don't think like that, they see a chance to catch a division foe unfocused and they wanna piece of that. Good for the Niners, this W does absolutely nothing for them as an organization...except everyone feel much much better for one week. I still like the Seahawks to squeeze into the post-season (as the Eagles and Redskins melt out of their way).
2 weeks to go:
AFC
(in) Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Pats; (one's in/one's out) Ravens/Steelers; (I think one's in/one's out) Colts, Titans; (out) Dolphins, Broncos, Browns, Bengals, Bills, Jags, Jets, Raiders
Looks to me like: Chargers/Texans bye; Chiefs @ Ravens; Colts @ Pats
NFC
(in) Saints, Rams, Bears; (probably in) Cowboys, Seahawks, Vikings; (probably out) Eagles, Redskins; (out) Packers, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, Lions, Falcons, Cards, Niners
Looks to me like: Saints/Rams bye; Seahawks @ Bears; Vikings @ Cowboys
Chargers 29-28 Chiefs
Great game! Rivers threw a bad interception (he had his guy, just under threw the pass) on the opening drive, which the Chiefs quickly turned into a TD and it felt like this was gonna be vintage Chiefs. But the Chargers were able to sludge up that Chief attack (hmmm, has anyone done that this year?), keep the game kinda close and Rivers was able to move the ball on the mediocre Chiefs D (hmmm, maybe that defense's best game all year, no?). But when the Chiefs went up by two TD's early in the 4th, again it felt like they were gonna sneak away with the W. But Rivers was brilliant down the stretch and quickly got the Chargers a chance to win. And, yes, going for two at the end was the right play--even if it didn't work!--and the ballsy move paid off. Big big big W for the Chargers and tough L for the Chiefs (who didn't play badly), this might've swung the division and that is mind blowing considering how great the Chiefs have been all season long.
Packers 17-24 Bears
The Bears was better, not wildly better but enough better, and I sat there waiting for Rodgers to pull it out in the end...and...nah, that wasn't gonna happen. The Bears D is really really good, Trubisky is pretty good, the rushing attacks comes and goes, but in a parity season, the Bears have as good a shot as anyone at winning it all (yeah, "it all"!). The Packers are officially done for the season, they got a little bit of a bump after dumping Coach McCarthy but that last L to the Cards finished them off, I guess they shut down Rodgers, start evaluating player by player, I'd be surprised if they even came close to winning another game this year.
Raiders 16-30 Bengals
The Bengals are not good but they're playing hard right now and that'll keep them in games (keep an eye on them to cover spreads in the next coupla weeks). The Raiders are not good but...uh....they still have pretty cool uniforms.
Pats 10-17 Steelers
Surprised at how mediocre the Pats have been this year and this game was the highlight: the O line was not good, Edelman and Gordon dropped passes, Brady had the most inexplicable interception I've ever seen from him, and the defense did not rise to the occasion. That said, they still had their shot down the stretch (the last two drives, actually) to get it done, so it's not like the Steelers dominated anything. The Steelers have moments where that offense rises up and makes plays but not with any reliability and the D is shaky at best. The Steelers are still in the playoff race but that is kinda surprising, they'll need to beat suddenly feisty division foes to reach the post-season (and I'm not sure they get it done). The Pats have been down all year but they're still gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.
Eagles 30-23 Rams
Fun game! The Eagles had everything go their way, the Rams had everything fall apart for them. The Eagles had to go with Foles instead of Wentz and it was a nice shot in the arm for the Eagles--though they've been playing a little better lately. The popular theory on the Rams is that they frontloaded all their big signings and have no depth and now injuries are starting to cut into their efficiency--and I agree. They dominated for the first ten weeks or so but they've been very beatable lately, the vanilla offense is suddenly not at all impressive, the gambling on special teams isn't working, the defense is thin beyond the pass rush. The Rams are still good and have the ability to win games going forward but they look like they're slumping at the wrong time.
Other results (surprising):
Browns 17-16 Broncos
The Broncos had a nice stretch there where they looked like a legit playoff team but they still suck on the road and their lack of quality has brought them back to earth. The flipside is the Browns: they've got some talent but they're still young and they were sandbagged by a brutally awful coach for the first half of the year. Moving on from that dead weight has brought this team to life and they're playing much better down the stretch. Can the Browns actually make the playoffs? Nah, not seeing it, but the fact that they're hung around as long as they did is pretty miraculous (finally a good time to be a Browns fan again!). Not sure what the Broncos do for the rest of the season, not sure what's wrong with this team, they've had pleasant surprises on both sides of the ball but I reckon they'll make changes this off-season.
Saints 12-9 Panthers
The Saints have taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks and they're clearly not as good on the road, but I kinda thought the opportunity to dust off a division foe would bring out the best in them. Instead it seems like it was Cam Newton's questionable shoulder that sealed the victory for them. The Panthers are officially done, mailing it in from here (doubt they'll be covering any more spreads). The Saints are dominant at home, arguably the best team in the league and likely to finish 1st in the NFC....but...they're very beatable on the road and match up poorly against some folks they'll likely run into in the playoffs (I think the Seahawks and Bears could be troublesome for them, for example). I like the Saints, but I'm no more bullish on their chances than any number of other teams.
Other results (not so surprising):
Texans 29-22 Jets
The Texans have a good D and a good QB (I'm a big Watson fan) and a 9-game winning streak under their belt...so why are they so mediocre? I'm inclined to think they're pretty good and can be dangerous in the post-season but they are no dominant in any way and that's a little odd. I think they're gonna make the playoffs and be a tough out and this is a wide open year, so anything can happen (but is anyone betting on the Texans right now?). The Jets are spunky, they're just not any good, seems like they've got their QB but they'll need a new coach, so that'll keep the fans busy in the off-season.
Cards 14-40 Falcons
The Cards suck. The Falcons suck, too, but really they've just been exceptionally unlucky with injuries and when given the chance to run it up on a lame team at home, well, that's what happened. The Cards have their QB but not much else, they'll be busy in the off-season. The Falcons' injuries so warped their season that it's hard to tell what they need going forward, hard to see what the off-season looks like for them.
Lions 13-14 Bills
When two crappy teams get together, take the team that plays in Buffalo in December. Took them to the final play of the game to pull out the W, but the Bills got it. Yea! The Bills have a pretty good D (as always), a pretty good special teams (as always), a pretty good coach (I like McDermott), seem to have their QB (haven't had one of those in a while), just need to shore up that O-line (which, except for last year, has sucked for as long as anyone can remember) and bring in some skill players (they've had those over the years but never when they had a QB), they might be ready to take a run at the slipping-down Pats, right? The Lions have always sucked and frankly I think they've shown some spunk, if that defense becomes as good as it's supposed to be, they can be a real pain in the ass squad.
Cowboys 0-23 Colts
The Colts started slow but they're peaking at the right time, gonna be a tough out in the playoffs (they're not in yet but I like their chances) and are moving in the right direction for the first time in a few years. The Cowboys, too, have been playing better lately but they're still quite capable of laying an egg on the road and that's what happened here. The Cowboys are still in the driver's seat to take their division but they can have any more games like this.
Dolphins 17-41 Vikings
Dolphins suck on the road, this is not a shock. The Vikings ought to be better than they are and every once in while they actually are. The Dolphins are technically still in the playoff hunt but I'm not feeling their chances; the Vikings are, too, and I think they've got a good shot at being a real pain in the ass for someone.
Titans 17-0 Giants
The Giants are...man, they're the Giants...they're gonna replace Eli with Flacco, draft a QB in the 4th round and then declare that they're ready to take over the world. (Seriously, don't be at all surprised if they do all that) The Titans are weird, man, sometimes they look really good on both sides of the ball, other times they look like little kids fighting in the cafeteria. The Titans are still around, if the Colts and Texans mess around, the Titans could sneak in (but, unlike every other team I've mentioned so far, I don't like their chances to do anything in the playoffs).
Redskins 16-13 Jags
These teams both suck, looks like the Jags sucked a little more this week.
Bucs 12-20 Ravens
The Bucs are not good but they're playing loose right now (some bad teams mail it in, some teams play hard down the stretch and surprise people, Bucs could be one of those latter squads) but the Ravens at home are not going down to sub-standard teams like this. I gotta feeling the Ravens overtake the Steelers, we'll see.
Seahawks 23-26 (OT) Niners
Called it. The Seahawks have been playing well lately, seem to be getting their identity back on defense, Russell Wilson is moving the ball well, they've got their eyes on the playoffs, their momentum in positive....meanwhile, the Niners suck balls. But, it's a division game, anything can happen, man. You know the right thing for the Niners to do is roll over, take the L, get a better draft position and write this horrible nightmare season off. Yeah, but football players don't think like that, they see a chance to catch a division foe unfocused and they wanna piece of that. Good for the Niners, this W does absolutely nothing for them as an organization...except everyone feel much much better for one week. I still like the Seahawks to squeeze into the post-season (as the Eagles and Redskins melt out of their way).
2 weeks to go:
AFC
(in) Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Pats; (one's in/one's out) Ravens/Steelers; (I think one's in/one's out) Colts, Titans; (out) Dolphins, Broncos, Browns, Bengals, Bills, Jags, Jets, Raiders
Looks to me like: Chargers/Texans bye; Chiefs @ Ravens; Colts @ Pats
NFC
(in) Saints, Rams, Bears; (probably in) Cowboys, Seahawks, Vikings; (probably out) Eagles, Redskins; (out) Packers, Panthers, Bucs, Giants, Lions, Falcons, Cards, Niners
Looks to me like: Saints/Rams bye; Seahawks @ Bears; Vikings @ Cowboys
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
2018-19 NBA Pointless Trade Idea
Kings get: Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, Mike Muscala; Sixers get Bogdan Bogdanovic, De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein
Kings would get a fascinating project on a rookie contract (Fultz), a bonafide gonna-be superstar (Simmons) also still on his rookie deal and an expiring veteran (Muscala). Fultz gets back to the West Coast in a low-pressure media town; Simmons becomes the undisputed king of Kings, the centerpiece of the team for at least the next 5 years; Muscala walks next summer leaving that much more salary cap to dangle for free agents.
Going forward they'd have a core of Simmons, Fultz, Hield, and Bagley and they'd still have a pile of talented youngsters (Yogi Ferrell, Harry Giles, Justin Jackson, Frank Mason, Skal Labisserie) to fill out the roster. Next summer they'd have roughly $55m to offer for free agents: how about DeAndre Jordan, Nikola Mirotic and Tobias Harris to go with the youth? Or a collection of reasonably priced vets like Patrick Beverley, Ed Davis, Trey Lyles, Elfrid Peyton and Al-Farouk Aminu. The Kings don't have their draft pick for 2019 (1st or 2nd round, if I'm not mistaken), but after that they keep picks for the foreseeable future. This gives the Kings a legit star to build around going forward with an interesting collection of youth that can still bloom and a pile of money for free agents.
Sixers trade away two #1 picks (one a consensus superstar in the making, the other quickly becoming a cautionary tale) but get back a dynamic lovable PG (Fox), a DPOY-esque freak athlete to fit between Butler and Embiid (Cauley-Stein) and an under appreciated ball handler, playmaker and 3-point threat (Bogdanovic). This gives them a core of Fox, Reddick, Butler, Cauley-Stein, Embiid with McConnell, Bogdanovic, Korkmaz, Landry Shamet. Wilson Chandler and Amir Johnson coming off the bench.
In the off-season the first priority would be re-signing Butler, Cauley-Stein and McConnell (and possibly Justin Patton), but parting ways with Reddick, Johnson and Chandler would leave them with about $40 million to spend. They'd be a young team (not unlike the Kings) with a strong core of Fox/Butler/Embiid, a bench with McConnell, Cauley-Stein and Bogdanovic and a nice collection of youth (Shamet, Korkmaz, Zhaire Smith, Bolden, possibly Patton) on the bench.
You may think trading Simmons away is madness, but though he's already a terrific player, his lack of scoring is kinda frightening and I think Fox can be almost as good as Simmons (and probably even more fan-friendly) Bogdanovic and Cauley-Stein are both under appreciated; Fultz has to go and Muscala is not a building block, so those are basically sunk costs, adding Simmons brings back three young players that can thicken the Sixers rotation without skipping a beat.
Who says no to this deal?
Kings would get a fascinating project on a rookie contract (Fultz), a bonafide gonna-be superstar (Simmons) also still on his rookie deal and an expiring veteran (Muscala). Fultz gets back to the West Coast in a low-pressure media town; Simmons becomes the undisputed king of Kings, the centerpiece of the team for at least the next 5 years; Muscala walks next summer leaving that much more salary cap to dangle for free agents.
Going forward they'd have a core of Simmons, Fultz, Hield, and Bagley and they'd still have a pile of talented youngsters (Yogi Ferrell, Harry Giles, Justin Jackson, Frank Mason, Skal Labisserie) to fill out the roster. Next summer they'd have roughly $55m to offer for free agents: how about DeAndre Jordan, Nikola Mirotic and Tobias Harris to go with the youth? Or a collection of reasonably priced vets like Patrick Beverley, Ed Davis, Trey Lyles, Elfrid Peyton and Al-Farouk Aminu. The Kings don't have their draft pick for 2019 (1st or 2nd round, if I'm not mistaken), but after that they keep picks for the foreseeable future. This gives the Kings a legit star to build around going forward with an interesting collection of youth that can still bloom and a pile of money for free agents.
Sixers trade away two #1 picks (one a consensus superstar in the making, the other quickly becoming a cautionary tale) but get back a dynamic lovable PG (Fox), a DPOY-esque freak athlete to fit between Butler and Embiid (Cauley-Stein) and an under appreciated ball handler, playmaker and 3-point threat (Bogdanovic). This gives them a core of Fox, Reddick, Butler, Cauley-Stein, Embiid with McConnell, Bogdanovic, Korkmaz, Landry Shamet. Wilson Chandler and Amir Johnson coming off the bench.
In the off-season the first priority would be re-signing Butler, Cauley-Stein and McConnell (and possibly Justin Patton), but parting ways with Reddick, Johnson and Chandler would leave them with about $40 million to spend. They'd be a young team (not unlike the Kings) with a strong core of Fox/Butler/Embiid, a bench with McConnell, Cauley-Stein and Bogdanovic and a nice collection of youth (Shamet, Korkmaz, Zhaire Smith, Bolden, possibly Patton) on the bench.
You may think trading Simmons away is madness, but though he's already a terrific player, his lack of scoring is kinda frightening and I think Fox can be almost as good as Simmons (and probably even more fan-friendly) Bogdanovic and Cauley-Stein are both under appreciated; Fultz has to go and Muscala is not a building block, so those are basically sunk costs, adding Simmons brings back three young players that can thicken the Sixers rotation without skipping a beat.
Who says no to this deal?
2018-19 NFL (Week 14)
Games I watched (some of):
Jags 9-30 Titans
Blow out, no fun, game over quick. The talk is that the Jags quit but I'd say they just weren't good enough to stop the Titans offense from the git-go. Henry's 99 yard run is the play of the year!
Saints 28-14 Bucs
The Bucs looked good early on and the Saints were scuffling. But the Saints blocked a punt early in the 3rd quarter and then dominated from then on. The Saints are mortal...and they can turn it around and whomp yo ass in a moment, too. Saints at home are gonna be tough to beat. The Bucs kinda looked for the first half but once the Saints turned up the heat, they couldn't hang.
Bengals 21-26 Chargers
Sloppy game. The Chargers were better throughout but they never could take over the game. The Bengals are in fuck-it mode: they've got too many injuries to win games, I think Coach Lewis is gone, so everyone's just auditioning for next year--which can be fun for the fans. The Chargers kinda took the week off and still got the W, that strategy doesn't always work.
Eagles 23-29 (OT) Cowboys
Boring game for three quarters +, then become a super fun game late. The Cowboys were better, moved the ball, but kept turning it over or stalling late in the drive, while the Eagles never got much offense going. Then in the 4th, they both started burning up and down the field on each other. If the Eagles played this way all the time, they'd be charging into the playoffs but they've been tentative and sloppy all year (can't convert on 3rd down) and looks like they're shutting Wentz down; kinda sorry season. The Cowboys are rounding into shape, still struggling at times on offense but they're gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.
Rams 6-15 Bears
The Rams just never got going, Goff was off, Gurley hardly touched the ball, felt like the Rams were playing possum or trying to shorten up the playbook instead of coming in balls out. The Bears D is really good, man, that pass rush is fierce. Trubisky is a maddening QB, looks good for a while then floats balls over the middle out of the blue, if he keeps the turnovers down to a minimum, the Bears can win games in the post-season.
Other results (surprising):
Pats 33-34 Dolphins
Not a shock to see the Pats lose in Miami, they kinda do that a lot actually, but the manner in which the L went down was eye-opening: 70 yard fluke play with multiple laterals is not the kind of play that beats a Belichik D very often. The Dolphins are not particularly good, especially on the road; the Pats are fine, gonna be a tough out but they are definitely not the favorite in the AFC this year.
Broncos 14-20 Niners
The Broncos were looking pretty good over the last month, they were getting back into the playoff race, felt like a trip to San Fran was winnable, not sure where they faltered. Good W for the Niners, their season has basically just been contractual obligation since Jimmy G went down, not much chance of them being competitive week to week, so any good play must feel pretty good to them. The Broncos need to win out, don't see that happening.
Steelers 21-24 Raiders
The Steelers are a naturally sloppy team, when that offense shows up they can beat anybody but when they don't they can lose to anyone. Case in point: Oaktown Raiders. Remember when the Raiders were on the way up? That was, like, two years ago...how'd they go from coming to ugh so quick?
Other results (not so surprising):
Jets 27-23 Bills
Good W for NYJ, pulled it out late in a road division game, felt like it was going to OT but they went for it, good for them. Both these teams are pretty bad this year, so this result doesn't mean much but the Jets gotta feel good about the W.
Panthers 20-26 Browns
Man, the Panthers had it in their hands, but they've been dreadful for the last month. Their playoff chances looked to be in the bag not long ago, now they are almost certainly out. The Browns, on the other hand, are actually still playoff-eligible, getting rid of Hue Jackson was a godsend for this team. They're not making the playoffs but they've been getting better all year and they're going to end the season on a good note, which is a good thing for a young team. Panthers, on the other hand, might be looking for a new coach.
Falcons 20-34 Packers
Yeah, I get it: the Packers are not good. But neither are the Falcons. Throw in that the Falcons aren't built to play outdoor in the cold on grass and this result should not be shocking even though the Packers just ditched their coach. The Packers still have a chance to go on a run and get into the playoffs but it just doesn't feel like its gonna happen this year. The Falcons were wrecked by early injuries and just kinda flailed around all year, the problem with that is you can't tell how good/bad they actually are, so no telling what they'll do in the off-season.
Ravens 24-27 (OT) Chiefs
Looked like a fun game. Chiefs badass offense (and crappy defense) against the Ravens badass defense (and crappy offense). Yeah, this result looks about right, though the Chiefs at home perhaps should've made shorter work of the Ravens. But the Ravens are a veteran squad, they know how to sludge up even the bestest of offenses. The Ravens are gonna be a tough out in the playoffs (seems like they're in, especially if the Steelers don't bother to win any more games) and the Chiefs are likely the favorite, though that defense really is pretty sorry.
Giants 40-16 Redskins
Ha! The Redskins are down to their 3rd string QB and the Giants have finally given up on life--which is their best chance to win apparently.
Colts 24-21 Texans
The Texans had a 9-game winning streak but this is a division game, anything can happen and in the grand scheme of things this was probably the right outcome.
Lions 17-3 Cards
Two bad teams having a bad game.
Vikings 7-21 Seahawks
These are two teams that I've been wrong about all year long: I thought the Vikings were balanced and set to take off this season (but they've been up and down, at best) and I thought the Seahawks were aging and on the way out (but they've shown great resilience and creativity). I was wrong about the Seahawks because I underestimated how impactful a good coach/good QB combo can be; I was wrong on the Vikings because I overestimated how good their coach/QB combo actually is. This was a playoff game: I think the Seahawks and the Vikings are out.
3 weeks to go:
AFC
(In) Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Pats; (I think they're in) Ravens; (in the hunt for the last spot) Steelers, Titans, Colts; (probably out) Dolphins, Broncos; (out) Browns, Bengals, Bills, Jags, Jets, Raiders
NFC Playoffs
(In) Saints, Rams; (probably in) Bears, Cowboys; (I think they're in) Seahawks; (in the hunt for the final spot) Vikings, Packers, Panthers; (probably out) Eagles, Redskins; (out) Bucs, Giants, Lions, Falcons, Cards, Niners
Jags 9-30 Titans
Blow out, no fun, game over quick. The talk is that the Jags quit but I'd say they just weren't good enough to stop the Titans offense from the git-go. Henry's 99 yard run is the play of the year!
Saints 28-14 Bucs
The Bucs looked good early on and the Saints were scuffling. But the Saints blocked a punt early in the 3rd quarter and then dominated from then on. The Saints are mortal...and they can turn it around and whomp yo ass in a moment, too. Saints at home are gonna be tough to beat. The Bucs kinda looked for the first half but once the Saints turned up the heat, they couldn't hang.
Bengals 21-26 Chargers
Sloppy game. The Chargers were better throughout but they never could take over the game. The Bengals are in fuck-it mode: they've got too many injuries to win games, I think Coach Lewis is gone, so everyone's just auditioning for next year--which can be fun for the fans. The Chargers kinda took the week off and still got the W, that strategy doesn't always work.
Eagles 23-29 (OT) Cowboys
Boring game for three quarters +, then become a super fun game late. The Cowboys were better, moved the ball, but kept turning it over or stalling late in the drive, while the Eagles never got much offense going. Then in the 4th, they both started burning up and down the field on each other. If the Eagles played this way all the time, they'd be charging into the playoffs but they've been tentative and sloppy all year (can't convert on 3rd down) and looks like they're shutting Wentz down; kinda sorry season. The Cowboys are rounding into shape, still struggling at times on offense but they're gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.
Rams 6-15 Bears
The Rams just never got going, Goff was off, Gurley hardly touched the ball, felt like the Rams were playing possum or trying to shorten up the playbook instead of coming in balls out. The Bears D is really good, man, that pass rush is fierce. Trubisky is a maddening QB, looks good for a while then floats balls over the middle out of the blue, if he keeps the turnovers down to a minimum, the Bears can win games in the post-season.
Other results (surprising):
Pats 33-34 Dolphins
Not a shock to see the Pats lose in Miami, they kinda do that a lot actually, but the manner in which the L went down was eye-opening: 70 yard fluke play with multiple laterals is not the kind of play that beats a Belichik D very often. The Dolphins are not particularly good, especially on the road; the Pats are fine, gonna be a tough out but they are definitely not the favorite in the AFC this year.
Broncos 14-20 Niners
The Broncos were looking pretty good over the last month, they were getting back into the playoff race, felt like a trip to San Fran was winnable, not sure where they faltered. Good W for the Niners, their season has basically just been contractual obligation since Jimmy G went down, not much chance of them being competitive week to week, so any good play must feel pretty good to them. The Broncos need to win out, don't see that happening.
Steelers 21-24 Raiders
The Steelers are a naturally sloppy team, when that offense shows up they can beat anybody but when they don't they can lose to anyone. Case in point: Oaktown Raiders. Remember when the Raiders were on the way up? That was, like, two years ago...how'd they go from coming to ugh so quick?
Other results (not so surprising):
Jets 27-23 Bills
Good W for NYJ, pulled it out late in a road division game, felt like it was going to OT but they went for it, good for them. Both these teams are pretty bad this year, so this result doesn't mean much but the Jets gotta feel good about the W.
Panthers 20-26 Browns
Man, the Panthers had it in their hands, but they've been dreadful for the last month. Their playoff chances looked to be in the bag not long ago, now they are almost certainly out. The Browns, on the other hand, are actually still playoff-eligible, getting rid of Hue Jackson was a godsend for this team. They're not making the playoffs but they've been getting better all year and they're going to end the season on a good note, which is a good thing for a young team. Panthers, on the other hand, might be looking for a new coach.
Falcons 20-34 Packers
Yeah, I get it: the Packers are not good. But neither are the Falcons. Throw in that the Falcons aren't built to play outdoor in the cold on grass and this result should not be shocking even though the Packers just ditched their coach. The Packers still have a chance to go on a run and get into the playoffs but it just doesn't feel like its gonna happen this year. The Falcons were wrecked by early injuries and just kinda flailed around all year, the problem with that is you can't tell how good/bad they actually are, so no telling what they'll do in the off-season.
Ravens 24-27 (OT) Chiefs
Looked like a fun game. Chiefs badass offense (and crappy defense) against the Ravens badass defense (and crappy offense). Yeah, this result looks about right, though the Chiefs at home perhaps should've made shorter work of the Ravens. But the Ravens are a veteran squad, they know how to sludge up even the bestest of offenses. The Ravens are gonna be a tough out in the playoffs (seems like they're in, especially if the Steelers don't bother to win any more games) and the Chiefs are likely the favorite, though that defense really is pretty sorry.
Giants 40-16 Redskins
Ha! The Redskins are down to their 3rd string QB and the Giants have finally given up on life--which is their best chance to win apparently.
Colts 24-21 Texans
The Texans had a 9-game winning streak but this is a division game, anything can happen and in the grand scheme of things this was probably the right outcome.
Lions 17-3 Cards
Two bad teams having a bad game.
Vikings 7-21 Seahawks
These are two teams that I've been wrong about all year long: I thought the Vikings were balanced and set to take off this season (but they've been up and down, at best) and I thought the Seahawks were aging and on the way out (but they've shown great resilience and creativity). I was wrong about the Seahawks because I underestimated how impactful a good coach/good QB combo can be; I was wrong on the Vikings because I overestimated how good their coach/QB combo actually is. This was a playoff game: I think the Seahawks and the Vikings are out.
3 weeks to go:
AFC
(In) Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Pats; (I think they're in) Ravens; (in the hunt for the last spot) Steelers, Titans, Colts; (probably out) Dolphins, Broncos; (out) Browns, Bengals, Bills, Jags, Jets, Raiders
NFC Playoffs
(In) Saints, Rams; (probably in) Bears, Cowboys; (I think they're in) Seahawks; (in the hunt for the final spot) Vikings, Packers, Panthers; (probably out) Eagles, Redskins; (out) Bucs, Giants, Lions, Falcons, Cards, Niners
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
2018-19 NFL (Week 13)
Games I watched some of:
Saints 10-13 Cowboys
I kinda had this: I thought the Saints would struggle, Cowboys would be up after 3 quarters, then the Saints would come back and steal it late (because that's who they are). Well, the Saints forgot to come back and win it but otherwise I wasn't that surprised by this. The Saints are so-so on the road (don't let that shellacking in Cincy fool ya) and they naturally are a win-it-late kinda team anyway, so farting around for three quarters in a tough road game shouldn't be a shock. Throw in that the Cowboys have been playing better lately (I thought their pass rush looked great against the Saints) and they have a swagger since their division foes are rapidly falling apart. I'm a little surprised the Saints didn't find a way to win--they are the better team--but I still think they're in the playoff pole position (and I would take them to pummel the Cowboys if the meet in the post-season).
Broncos 24-10 Bengals
This is the meeting of the Broncos aren't that bad and man, the Bengals suck! The Broncos have a workmanlike offense and that killer D they sported a few years back looks like it is finally returning. They've gone from overrated to underrated and that makes them kinda dangerous this time of year. As for the Bengals, okay I'll say it: time for Marvin Lewis to go. When you bring in Hue Jackson just to get smoked by the team that just ran him outta town...and there's talk that Hue might replace Marvin?!? Man, bad things are going down in Cincy. They would be better off by cleaning house in management (I'd move on from that GM, too) and giving the whole facility a fumigation.
Bears 27-30 (OT) Giants
Remember the Eli Principle: he makes good teams bad and bad teams good. So when you think the Bears are gonna roll over this crappy Giants team, nope, that's the time to put your chips on blue. The Bears came in without Trubisky (he's the new John Elway, you know) but still had plenty enough to move the ball on the Giants, but they didn't; thought that Bears pass rush would make mincemeat of Eli and that sorry O-line, but they didn't. So is this just Eli's veteran savvy picking apart an overconfident squad or are the Bears not quite ready to win? (Hmmm, I'll take both)
Vikings 10-24 Pats
Chargers 33-30 Steelers
Another result that came to pass, though when the Steelers came out fast, I thought maybe I misjudged it. But then the Steelers attack kinda dried up and the Chargers had all the momentum in the 2nd half. That final FG fiasco was reminiscent of something I noticed earlier this year: the Steelers defense has the amazing ability to either commit a penalty or incite a penalty from the other side, like no unit I can recall in all my football watching days. Fun game, disappointing performance for the Steelers but really cemented the Chargers' status as one of those teams that can go deep in the post-season.
Other results (surprising):
Cards 20-17 Packers
Ohhhh, fuuuuudddggge! Well, Mike McCarthy was gonna get it at some point, losing to a bad team that was a 14 point underdog at home seems like a pretty good point. The Cards are still not any good, the Packers are officially done for the year. So who do you like as the new coach? Urban Meyer? (not seeing it) Jim Harbaugh? (maybe) Josh McDaniels? (maybe but I kinda like the Bill Belichick theory instead) Joe Philbin? (no--shit, I'd have Bobby Petrino!) Bruce Arians? (seems like he wants the Browns job, right?) How about Hue Jackson--you know he knows how to coach!
Panthers 17-24 Bucs
Bad L for the Panthers, I really don't understand why they're sputtering so badly right now. The Bucs are really not a good team and this was a good chance for the Panthers to right the ship, get their offense going and get a division W on the road...and they let it get by them. The Panthers are capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, but they've been less then an up-and-down squad lately.
Colts 0-6 Jags
Wtf? I don't get this one at all. Okay, maybe the Jags D had a good game again but, man, that offense has nothing going for it, how did the Colts fail to outscore them?
Other results (not so surprising):
Ravens 26-16 Falcons
The Falcons really should be better, even with their debilitating injuries on defense. They're done for the year, not sure where they go from here: can they just re-up this year's team and hope for better health or is it time for a tear down? The Ravens are just kinda hanging around, just like every year. I'm not quite sold on Lamar Jackson just yet but he's getting wins, so I guess they gotta keep riding him. The Ravens still have a shot at the post-season but it might be easier to catch the Steelers than the get the wild card.
Rams 30-16 Lions
Yeah, that's about right.
Bills 17-21 Dolphins
Division game between two mediocre teams. Dolphins probably should've handled this game a little better but they got the W.
Browns 13-29 Texans
Yeah, that's about right. Personally I believe in the Texans, I've liked Deshaun Watson all year long and that pass rush is rounding into shape, they're gonna be a tough out for somebody. The Browns have been playing better but this is a tough road game for them.
Jets 22-26 Titans
I'd like to see the Titans dominate a game (they whooped the Pats but that's their only one of those all year long), they're good enough to win more games than they lose but not good enough to really be any good. The Jets suck in every way.
Chiefs 40-33 Raiders
The Chiefs really need to worry about that sorry defense. That amazing offense is gonna be good enough to outscore most opponents but that D is not good and it's gonna hurt them at some point.
Niners 16-43 Seahawks
I was wrong about the Seahawks, I thought they were done but they've got a good QB and a good coach and that duo can keep mediocre team alive. If the Vikings and Panthers continue to struggle, the Seahawks are gonna sneak into the playoffs--good for them! It's been a long season for the Niners and they got so little out of Jimmy G that they're still not even sure what they've got. Man, a tough tough season for the Niners.
Redskins 13-28 Eagles
Division game, nothing would've surprised me. This sounds about right.
Saints 10-13 Cowboys
I kinda had this: I thought the Saints would struggle, Cowboys would be up after 3 quarters, then the Saints would come back and steal it late (because that's who they are). Well, the Saints forgot to come back and win it but otherwise I wasn't that surprised by this. The Saints are so-so on the road (don't let that shellacking in Cincy fool ya) and they naturally are a win-it-late kinda team anyway, so farting around for three quarters in a tough road game shouldn't be a shock. Throw in that the Cowboys have been playing better lately (I thought their pass rush looked great against the Saints) and they have a swagger since their division foes are rapidly falling apart. I'm a little surprised the Saints didn't find a way to win--they are the better team--but I still think they're in the playoff pole position (and I would take them to pummel the Cowboys if the meet in the post-season).
Broncos 24-10 Bengals
This is the meeting of the Broncos aren't that bad and man, the Bengals suck! The Broncos have a workmanlike offense and that killer D they sported a few years back looks like it is finally returning. They've gone from overrated to underrated and that makes them kinda dangerous this time of year. As for the Bengals, okay I'll say it: time for Marvin Lewis to go. When you bring in Hue Jackson just to get smoked by the team that just ran him outta town...and there's talk that Hue might replace Marvin?!? Man, bad things are going down in Cincy. They would be better off by cleaning house in management (I'd move on from that GM, too) and giving the whole facility a fumigation.
Bears 27-30 (OT) Giants
Remember the Eli Principle: he makes good teams bad and bad teams good. So when you think the Bears are gonna roll over this crappy Giants team, nope, that's the time to put your chips on blue. The Bears came in without Trubisky (he's the new John Elway, you know) but still had plenty enough to move the ball on the Giants, but they didn't; thought that Bears pass rush would make mincemeat of Eli and that sorry O-line, but they didn't. So is this just Eli's veteran savvy picking apart an overconfident squad or are the Bears not quite ready to win? (Hmmm, I'll take both)
Vikings 10-24 Pats
Pretty even game for about three quarters but the Vikings offense stalled and the Pats were able to take hold of the game. I think the problem with the Vikings is Kirk Cousins: he isn't bad, he doesn't injure the team but he doesn't elevate the team either, he is the 15th best QB in the league, which isn't awful but isn't really good either. Otherwise I still think the Vikings are one of the best teams in the league but the Packers and Panthers and Redskins falling apart is the only way they get into the playoffs. As for the Pats, they can still beat people in the playoffs, I guess, but this is one of the weaker offenses they've had in the Brady years.
Chargers 33-30 Steelers
Another result that came to pass, though when the Steelers came out fast, I thought maybe I misjudged it. But then the Steelers attack kinda dried up and the Chargers had all the momentum in the 2nd half. That final FG fiasco was reminiscent of something I noticed earlier this year: the Steelers defense has the amazing ability to either commit a penalty or incite a penalty from the other side, like no unit I can recall in all my football watching days. Fun game, disappointing performance for the Steelers but really cemented the Chargers' status as one of those teams that can go deep in the post-season.
Other results (surprising):
Cards 20-17 Packers
Ohhhh, fuuuuudddggge! Well, Mike McCarthy was gonna get it at some point, losing to a bad team that was a 14 point underdog at home seems like a pretty good point. The Cards are still not any good, the Packers are officially done for the year. So who do you like as the new coach? Urban Meyer? (not seeing it) Jim Harbaugh? (maybe) Josh McDaniels? (maybe but I kinda like the Bill Belichick theory instead) Joe Philbin? (no--shit, I'd have Bobby Petrino!) Bruce Arians? (seems like he wants the Browns job, right?) How about Hue Jackson--you know he knows how to coach!
Panthers 17-24 Bucs
Bad L for the Panthers, I really don't understand why they're sputtering so badly right now. The Bucs are really not a good team and this was a good chance for the Panthers to right the ship, get their offense going and get a division W on the road...and they let it get by them. The Panthers are capable of beating anyone or losing to anyone, but they've been less then an up-and-down squad lately.
Colts 0-6 Jags
Wtf? I don't get this one at all. Okay, maybe the Jags D had a good game again but, man, that offense has nothing going for it, how did the Colts fail to outscore them?
Other results (not so surprising):
Ravens 26-16 Falcons
The Falcons really should be better, even with their debilitating injuries on defense. They're done for the year, not sure where they go from here: can they just re-up this year's team and hope for better health or is it time for a tear down? The Ravens are just kinda hanging around, just like every year. I'm not quite sold on Lamar Jackson just yet but he's getting wins, so I guess they gotta keep riding him. The Ravens still have a shot at the post-season but it might be easier to catch the Steelers than the get the wild card.
Rams 30-16 Lions
Yeah, that's about right.
Bills 17-21 Dolphins
Division game between two mediocre teams. Dolphins probably should've handled this game a little better but they got the W.
Browns 13-29 Texans
Yeah, that's about right. Personally I believe in the Texans, I've liked Deshaun Watson all year long and that pass rush is rounding into shape, they're gonna be a tough out for somebody. The Browns have been playing better but this is a tough road game for them.
Jets 22-26 Titans
I'd like to see the Titans dominate a game (they whooped the Pats but that's their only one of those all year long), they're good enough to win more games than they lose but not good enough to really be any good. The Jets suck in every way.
Chiefs 40-33 Raiders
The Chiefs really need to worry about that sorry defense. That amazing offense is gonna be good enough to outscore most opponents but that D is not good and it's gonna hurt them at some point.
Niners 16-43 Seahawks
I was wrong about the Seahawks, I thought they were done but they've got a good QB and a good coach and that duo can keep mediocre team alive. If the Vikings and Panthers continue to struggle, the Seahawks are gonna sneak into the playoffs--good for them! It's been a long season for the Niners and they got so little out of Jimmy G that they're still not even sure what they've got. Man, a tough tough season for the Niners.
Redskins 13-28 Eagles
Division game, nothing would've surprised me. This sounds about right.
Sunday, December 2, 2018
2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 14)
Games I watched (some of):
(10) Washington 10-3 (17) Utah
Yeah, that game was as boring as the score would indicate. The winning TD was a flukey pick-6, otherwise there was no offense--NO OFFENSE--in this game at all. This was two mediocre offenses against two okay defenses. Washington gets a Rose Bowl birth, where I reckon they'll get spanked by a so-so Ohio State squad. Pac-12 was really nothing special this year and this championship was pretty much the perfect capper of the season for the conference.
(5) Oklahoma 39-27 (9) Texas
Probably Oklahoma's crappiest game of the year--they played better in their L to Texas earlier in the year. The Sooners started the game by trying to go low-key, which was exactly what Texas was planning on--really? How is it that Texas was perfectly situated for that? Oklahoma really never did get their offense going but still managed to grind up the Horns. Texas is a nice team, moving in the right direction but they weren't as good as Oklahoma at any point this season (well, except for that week they beat them, I guess....).
(7) Central Florida 56-41 Memphis
Man, UCF really dug themselves a hole but it is a tribute to that overwhelming offense that they spotted a tenacious Memphis squad two quick TD's, sputtered through the first half and still easily covered the spread. Kinda impressed with Memphis that they put up that kind of fight, but once UCF got their feet under them, this game was over. I'm impressed, I'm ready to see Central Florida against a for-real opponent--especially in a year when everyone is playing for 2nd place anyway.
(1) Alabama 35-28 (4) Georgia
I was impressed with Georgia for the first three quarters, but honestly I thought Bama's WR's dropped a lot of balls in the 1st half, missed a lot of plays they would normally make and that's basically what kept UGA in the game. Bama going to their 2nd string QB (who would be an all-American at any other school) for the comeback just shows how much better they are than everyone else this season. UGA did their best, kept the game spicy but they're just not as good as Bama (and if Bama played better this wouldn't have been that close).
(6) Ohio State 45-24 (21) Northwestern
Buckeyes did enough to hold the lead, Northwestern looked like they were going to make a game of it early in the 2nd half but Ohio State still has enough big play ability to easily sock the game away. Northwestern played hard, I liked their moxy, but even as mediocre as Ohio State has been this season, they still have more than enough talent to easily take this game.
Didn't see
(2) Clemson 42-10 Pittsburgh
Yeah, this was predictable, Pitt was up and down all year long while Clemson plowed their way through an undefeated season without even trying hard.
(19) Boise State 16-19 (23) Fresno State
Two tough squads, ones to keep an eye on during the bowl season.
(24) Iowa State 27-24 Drake
Not a strong finish for Iowa State. Guess they only get it up for the tough games.
My final rankings
(1) Alabama (duh)
(2) Clemson (can they beat Bama? I dunno, maybe)
(3) Oklahoma (that offense is really good, they can give Bama or Clemson a game at least, though I don't see them beating either)
(4) Georgia (hung tough with Alabama for 3/4 of a game, more impressive than most everyone else this weekend)
(5) Notre Dame (solid, workmanlike Irish squad, they'll be Clemson's toughest opponent all year, they might could knock them off, we'll see)
(6) Central Florida (I'd rather see them than anyone else in a big game)
(7) Ohio State (after they throttle Washington they'll be the most uninspiring, unimpressive, luckiest 13-1 Rose Bowl-winning Big 10 champion I ever saw)
(8) nobody (LSU has 3 L's, Washington has no offense, Michigan blew their chances, Penn State and Florida weren't all that great this year, if Kentucky wins at Tennessee this would be their spot but they didn't get it done, either--we don't need an 8 team playoff, people! We don't need it!)
(10) Washington 10-3 (17) Utah
Yeah, that game was as boring as the score would indicate. The winning TD was a flukey pick-6, otherwise there was no offense--NO OFFENSE--in this game at all. This was two mediocre offenses against two okay defenses. Washington gets a Rose Bowl birth, where I reckon they'll get spanked by a so-so Ohio State squad. Pac-12 was really nothing special this year and this championship was pretty much the perfect capper of the season for the conference.
(5) Oklahoma 39-27 (9) Texas
Probably Oklahoma's crappiest game of the year--they played better in their L to Texas earlier in the year. The Sooners started the game by trying to go low-key, which was exactly what Texas was planning on--really? How is it that Texas was perfectly situated for that? Oklahoma really never did get their offense going but still managed to grind up the Horns. Texas is a nice team, moving in the right direction but they weren't as good as Oklahoma at any point this season (well, except for that week they beat them, I guess....).
(7) Central Florida 56-41 Memphis
Man, UCF really dug themselves a hole but it is a tribute to that overwhelming offense that they spotted a tenacious Memphis squad two quick TD's, sputtered through the first half and still easily covered the spread. Kinda impressed with Memphis that they put up that kind of fight, but once UCF got their feet under them, this game was over. I'm impressed, I'm ready to see Central Florida against a for-real opponent--especially in a year when everyone is playing for 2nd place anyway.
(1) Alabama 35-28 (4) Georgia
I was impressed with Georgia for the first three quarters, but honestly I thought Bama's WR's dropped a lot of balls in the 1st half, missed a lot of plays they would normally make and that's basically what kept UGA in the game. Bama going to their 2nd string QB (who would be an all-American at any other school) for the comeback just shows how much better they are than everyone else this season. UGA did their best, kept the game spicy but they're just not as good as Bama (and if Bama played better this wouldn't have been that close).
(6) Ohio State 45-24 (21) Northwestern
Buckeyes did enough to hold the lead, Northwestern looked like they were going to make a game of it early in the 2nd half but Ohio State still has enough big play ability to easily sock the game away. Northwestern played hard, I liked their moxy, but even as mediocre as Ohio State has been this season, they still have more than enough talent to easily take this game.
Didn't see
(2) Clemson 42-10 Pittsburgh
Yeah, this was predictable, Pitt was up and down all year long while Clemson plowed their way through an undefeated season without even trying hard.
(19) Boise State 16-19 (23) Fresno State
Two tough squads, ones to keep an eye on during the bowl season.
(24) Iowa State 27-24 Drake
Not a strong finish for Iowa State. Guess they only get it up for the tough games.
My final rankings
(1) Alabama (duh)
(2) Clemson (can they beat Bama? I dunno, maybe)
(3) Oklahoma (that offense is really good, they can give Bama or Clemson a game at least, though I don't see them beating either)
(4) Georgia (hung tough with Alabama for 3/4 of a game, more impressive than most everyone else this weekend)
(5) Notre Dame (solid, workmanlike Irish squad, they'll be Clemson's toughest opponent all year, they might could knock them off, we'll see)
(6) Central Florida (I'd rather see them than anyone else in a big game)
(7) Ohio State (after they throttle Washington they'll be the most uninspiring, unimpressive, luckiest 13-1 Rose Bowl-winning Big 10 champion I ever saw)
(8) nobody (LSU has 3 L's, Washington has no offense, Michigan blew their chances, Penn State and Florida weren't all that great this year, if Kentucky wins at Tennessee this would be their spot but they didn't get it done, either--we don't need an 8 team playoff, people! We don't need it!)
Thursday, November 29, 2018
2018-19 NCAA Football (Weeks 12 & 13)
Week 12
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (4) Michigan, (5) Georgia, (6) Oklahoma, (7) LSU, (8) Washington State, (10) Ohio State (shaky again but got the W), (11) Central Florida, (13) Florida, (14) Penn State, (15) Texas, (17) Kentucky, (18) Washington, (19) Utah, (21) Mississippi State, (22) Northwestern, (23) Utah State, (25) Boise State
Bad beat
(12) Syracuse (Notre Dame seems to have caught everyone at their peak ranking, right?)
Not so good
(9) West Virginia (I knew WVU would score, didn't occur to me that Okla St would keep up, bad loss)
Week 13
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (5) Georgia, (6) Oklahoma, (9) Central Florida, (10) Ohio State, (11) Florida, (12) Penn State, (14) Texas, (15) Kentucky, (16) Washington, (17) Utah, (18) Mississippi State, (19) Northwestern, (20) Syracuse, (22) Texas A&M (23) Boise State, (25) Iowa State
Bad beat
(7) LSU (7 OT's on the road? Okay, I'm gonna let that go, that's not a bad L)
Not so good
(4) Michigan (all you gotta do was beat Notre Dame and/or Ohio State; sorry, but 0-2 means you had a bad year)
(8) Washington State (hmmm, home field in a snow storm, still couldn't get it done?)
(13) West Virginia (needed to beat OU, didn't get it done)
(21) Utah State (good year, but they needed that win on the road)
(24) Pittsburgh (why were they ranked?)
Next week
Pac-12: (17) Utah @ (11) Washington (I gotta go with Washington)
Big 12: (14) Texas @ (5) Oklahoma (I see a Sooner revenge beatdown coming)
American: Memphis @ (8) Central Florida (Memphis keeps game close, UCF lost their QB, gonna be tough for UCF to keep that winning streak going)
SEC: (1) Alabama @ (5) Georgia (UGA beat Kentucky 34-17, I'd say Bama is similarly better than Georgia)
Mountain West: (25) Fresno State @ (23) Boise State (I'll go with Fresno to avenge their loss to BSU this year)
ACC: (2) Clemson @ Pittsburgh (if Pitt beats Clemson I'll eat my hat)
Big 10: (21) Northwestern @ (6) Ohio State (Buckeyes have had a lot of shaky games this year, but I'd be surprised if Northwestern gave them much of a game)
Drake @ (23) Iowa State (Look for Iowa State to run up the score)
My rankings
1) Alabama (if they lose to UGA, they're still in the playoff--who the hell else is gonna win 29-0 at LSU?)
2) Clemson (can they beat Alabama? I have no idea but I gotta at least think they've got a shot)
3) Oklahoma (wouldn't beat Alabama but that offense would at least give them an interesting game)
4) Georgia (if they can beat Bama, they're in...I don't think they will but they're gonna get a shot at it)
5) Notre Dame (yeah, they're undefeated, but I don't think they'd beat OU or UGA, so I have them #5)
6) Central Florida (may not be any good, especially down a starting QB, but I'd rather see them in than anyone else)
7) Ohio State (this is solely because somebody has to be #7; don't forget: got lucky against TCU, Penn State, Michigan State, farted around with Nebraska (who is not good), probably should've lost to Maryland, got rolled by Purdue; since I was never particularly impressed with Michigan, I'm struggling to see how the Buckeyes would even come close to having a chance to Alabama)
8) who cares? (I'd go with Washington if they handle their business this weekend, I got no need for LSU, Michigan, Florida, Penn State--this is why God invented a 4-team playoff! Don't mess with a good thing!)
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (4) Michigan, (5) Georgia, (6) Oklahoma, (7) LSU, (8) Washington State, (10) Ohio State (shaky again but got the W), (11) Central Florida, (13) Florida, (14) Penn State, (15) Texas, (17) Kentucky, (18) Washington, (19) Utah, (21) Mississippi State, (22) Northwestern, (23) Utah State, (25) Boise State
Bad beat
(12) Syracuse (Notre Dame seems to have caught everyone at their peak ranking, right?)
(16) Iowa State (great at hanging around, just okay at actually getting wins)
(24) Cincinnati (not sure why they're ranked)
(9) West Virginia (I knew WVU would score, didn't occur to me that Okla St would keep up, bad loss)
(20) Boston College (to Florida State? C'mon, man, blew a great chance to drop a beatdown on a conference rival)
Week 13
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (5) Georgia, (6) Oklahoma, (9) Central Florida, (10) Ohio State, (11) Florida, (12) Penn State, (14) Texas, (15) Kentucky, (16) Washington, (17) Utah, (18) Mississippi State, (19) Northwestern, (20) Syracuse, (22) Texas A&M (23) Boise State, (25) Iowa State
Bad beat
(7) LSU (7 OT's on the road? Okay, I'm gonna let that go, that's not a bad L)
Not so good
(4) Michigan (all you gotta do was beat Notre Dame and/or Ohio State; sorry, but 0-2 means you had a bad year)
(8) Washington State (hmmm, home field in a snow storm, still couldn't get it done?)
(13) West Virginia (needed to beat OU, didn't get it done)
(21) Utah State (good year, but they needed that win on the road)
(24) Pittsburgh (why were they ranked?)
Next week
Pac-12: (17) Utah @ (11) Washington (I gotta go with Washington)
Big 12: (14) Texas @ (5) Oklahoma (I see a Sooner revenge beatdown coming)
American: Memphis @ (8) Central Florida (Memphis keeps game close, UCF lost their QB, gonna be tough for UCF to keep that winning streak going)
SEC: (1) Alabama @ (5) Georgia (UGA beat Kentucky 34-17, I'd say Bama is similarly better than Georgia)
Mountain West: (25) Fresno State @ (23) Boise State (I'll go with Fresno to avenge their loss to BSU this year)
ACC: (2) Clemson @ Pittsburgh (if Pitt beats Clemson I'll eat my hat)
Big 10: (21) Northwestern @ (6) Ohio State (Buckeyes have had a lot of shaky games this year, but I'd be surprised if Northwestern gave them much of a game)
Drake @ (23) Iowa State (Look for Iowa State to run up the score)
My rankings
1) Alabama (if they lose to UGA, they're still in the playoff--who the hell else is gonna win 29-0 at LSU?)
2) Clemson (can they beat Alabama? I have no idea but I gotta at least think they've got a shot)
3) Oklahoma (wouldn't beat Alabama but that offense would at least give them an interesting game)
4) Georgia (if they can beat Bama, they're in...I don't think they will but they're gonna get a shot at it)
5) Notre Dame (yeah, they're undefeated, but I don't think they'd beat OU or UGA, so I have them #5)
6) Central Florida (may not be any good, especially down a starting QB, but I'd rather see them in than anyone else)
7) Ohio State (this is solely because somebody has to be #7; don't forget: got lucky against TCU, Penn State, Michigan State, farted around with Nebraska (who is not good), probably should've lost to Maryland, got rolled by Purdue; since I was never particularly impressed with Michigan, I'm struggling to see how the Buckeyes would even come close to having a chance to Alabama)
8) who cares? (I'd go with Washington if they handle their business this weekend, I got no need for LSU, Michigan, Florida, Penn State--this is why God invented a 4-team playoff! Don't mess with a good thing!)
Thursday, November 15, 2018
2018-19 NFL (Weeks 9 & 10)
Week 9
Games I watched (some of):
Raiders 3-34 Niners
Dang, Raiders made NFL debut of 4th string QB Nick Mullens a memorable one. That dude was great! Raiders D is just awful, Derek Carr looks utterly lost out there, the Raiders don't do anything well, Gruden's return is reminding me a lot of Hue Jackson's exit. The Raiders have future considerations, the Niners are just killing tim til they get their franchise QB back next year.
Falcons 38-24 Redskins
A little surprised to see the Falcons looking so comfortable on grass, especially the defense, but they kept making plays. The Redskins are an up/down team and they were down today, still hanging around in the East but I still expect the Eagles to take the division.
Rams 35-45 Saints
Fun game! Back and forth, Saints fumbled, felt that was gonna make all the difference, Rams miss on the fake FG (uhh, I thought he got it, not sure why he got such an unfriendly spot), and suddenly its NO's game all over again. The Rams made a game of it in the 2nd half, but Saints stole it late like always. Homefield could make all the difference if/when these teams meet in the playoffs.
Packers 17-31 Pats
Loved the Pats going high tempo early, thought they'd do a little more of that (it was successful). Dug the way the Packers hung around, though. Close game til the Packers had a 4th quarter fumble and that was all the Pats needed to pull ahead. Pats are good but not great, Packers can be good but are mostly mediocre.
Results (surprising):
Steelers 24-17 Ravens
I should not have been surprised but I really thought the Ravens would move the ball on the Steeler D. The Steelers have moments on D and that offense can always get hot but I'm not sold on this Steelers squad, I think the Chiefs and Chargers (and Colts, maybe Pats) can beat them.
Other results (not surprising):
Bills 9-41 Bears
Trubisky has a habit of piling up numbers on sloppy teams. Bills D is solid, but the O-line (still!) is the ongoing problem.
Chiefs 37-21 Browns
The Chiefs scoring points, the Browns not keeping up (but scoring some because the Chiefs D is pretty sorry), yeah, totally predictable, one of those games that was exactly what you thought was gonna happen.
Jets 6-13 Dolphins
Dolphins are better than the Jets, division teams are either the hardest or the easiest, this was one of those easiest games. With the Ravens and Bengals mailing it in, feels like the Dolphins could hang around the playoff race but I figure the Chargers and Titans/Texans snag the wild cards. The Jets suck.
Lions 9-24 Vikings
I still believe the Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFC and could be ready to stun the Rams or Saints or Eagles in the post-season. The Lions kinda seem like they're getting better but not really...which is what the Lions have kinda always been, right?
Bucs 28-42 Panthers
Bucs can score...but rarely more than the other team. The Panthers are really good when they put their minds to it, gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.
Texans 19-17 Broncos
Still not sure about the Texans, at their best they look pretty good but still not scary. But a W at Denver is another nice win for them. The Broncos are in a tail spin, that D is still good enough to play spoiler but they're out of the playoff hunt.
Chargers 25-17 Seahawks
I definitely underestimated the Chargers, they just keep chugging along, look like they can beat anybody on any given Sunday, I'm skeptical of them in the post-season, but they look well on their way to getting there--finishing ahead of the Chiefs is still on the table. I've been way more impressed with the Seahawks, too, great QB and good coach can keep a team alive, I reckon.
Titans 28-14 Cowboys
The Titans are on the high side of mediocre, the Cowboys on the lower. This result seemed about right to me.
Week 10
Games I watched (some of):
Panthers 21-52 Steelers
This game was already ridiculously out of hand before I turned it on, but this score wasn't that shocking. When the Panthers don't got it, they pack it in quick; when the Steelers are feeling it, they can run it up on anyone. So that's what happened.
Saints 51-14 Bengals
I was impressed with the Saints. You see that score and you'd probably assume there were defensive plays and special teams and turnovers, etc., but not really; the Saints just scored every time they touched the ball, their offense was absolutely flawless.
Pats 10-34 Titans
Titans came out ready to play, jumped on the Pats early and kept them discombobulated (think we've seen the secret to beating the Pats, right? Score early), and looked good doing it. Titans are a pretty-good team and the Pats have regular missteps, the sheer dominance was eye-opening but the result isn't that shocking.
Cowboys 27-20 Eagles
Just kept waiting for the Eagles to step up and take the W but they did not. The Cowboys looked pretty good on both sides, why don't they look like that more often? I still think the Eagles win the division but time is running out.
Results (surprising):
Bills 41-10 Jets
Jets suck, man. Yup, even worse than the Bills. Buffalo's problem is having no QB behind no O-line, otherwise they're pretty good; the Jets problem is they don't know how to win, so you can't really even tell what the problem is (I kinda like the rookie QB actually, I don't think he's the problem).
Giants 27-23 Niners
Ehh, this wasn't that shocking, except that I thought the Niners would relish the chance to play a crappy offense in a primetime game and they blew their shot at a good W; that said, neither of these teams need to win, so Niners probably did better by fumbling the W away. Even when they win, the Giants are still doing it wrong.
Other results (not so surprising):
Lions 22-34 Bears
The Bears are getting better, the Lions are standing still.
Falcons 16-28 Browns
The Falcons looked good on the road against the Redskins, but against the revitalized Browns, they never got their offense going. Hue Jackson is gone, long live the new Hue.
Jags 26-29 Colts
This looks right to me. The Colts are about a FG better than the Jags, even though the Jags have looked pretty awful for the last month or so.
Cards 14-26 Chiefs
Seems like the Chiefs kinda took the week over and still easily beat the Cards.
Redskins 16-3 Bucs
This sounds right to me. The Bucs can score on anyone, the Redskins can lose to anyone, so of course the Redskins would easily shut down the Bucs on the road.
Chargers 20-6 Raiders
Yup, the predictable game of the week.
Dolphins 12-31 Packers
The Dolphins are not built for the road and certainly not for mid-Autumn Wisconsin, the Packers needed a W like this to kick start them for the rest of the season, they're still in the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are, too. (But I'm not seeing it for either team)
Seahawks 31-36 Rams
The Rams are better but the Seahawks gave them a good game. I'm more impressed with the Seahawks than I expected going into this season. The Rams are still the best in the league but it feels liker they've overheated and may go limping into the post-season.
Games I watched (some of):
Raiders 3-34 Niners
Dang, Raiders made NFL debut of 4th string QB Nick Mullens a memorable one. That dude was great! Raiders D is just awful, Derek Carr looks utterly lost out there, the Raiders don't do anything well, Gruden's return is reminding me a lot of Hue Jackson's exit. The Raiders have future considerations, the Niners are just killing tim til they get their franchise QB back next year.
Falcons 38-24 Redskins
A little surprised to see the Falcons looking so comfortable on grass, especially the defense, but they kept making plays. The Redskins are an up/down team and they were down today, still hanging around in the East but I still expect the Eagles to take the division.
Rams 35-45 Saints
Fun game! Back and forth, Saints fumbled, felt that was gonna make all the difference, Rams miss on the fake FG (uhh, I thought he got it, not sure why he got such an unfriendly spot), and suddenly its NO's game all over again. The Rams made a game of it in the 2nd half, but Saints stole it late like always. Homefield could make all the difference if/when these teams meet in the playoffs.
Packers 17-31 Pats
Loved the Pats going high tempo early, thought they'd do a little more of that (it was successful). Dug the way the Packers hung around, though. Close game til the Packers had a 4th quarter fumble and that was all the Pats needed to pull ahead. Pats are good but not great, Packers can be good but are mostly mediocre.
Results (surprising):
Steelers 24-17 Ravens
I should not have been surprised but I really thought the Ravens would move the ball on the Steeler D. The Steelers have moments on D and that offense can always get hot but I'm not sold on this Steelers squad, I think the Chiefs and Chargers (and Colts, maybe Pats) can beat them.
Other results (not surprising):
Bills 9-41 Bears
Trubisky has a habit of piling up numbers on sloppy teams. Bills D is solid, but the O-line (still!) is the ongoing problem.
Chiefs 37-21 Browns
The Chiefs scoring points, the Browns not keeping up (but scoring some because the Chiefs D is pretty sorry), yeah, totally predictable, one of those games that was exactly what you thought was gonna happen.
Jets 6-13 Dolphins
Dolphins are better than the Jets, division teams are either the hardest or the easiest, this was one of those easiest games. With the Ravens and Bengals mailing it in, feels like the Dolphins could hang around the playoff race but I figure the Chargers and Titans/Texans snag the wild cards. The Jets suck.
Lions 9-24 Vikings
I still believe the Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFC and could be ready to stun the Rams or Saints or Eagles in the post-season. The Lions kinda seem like they're getting better but not really...which is what the Lions have kinda always been, right?
Bucs 28-42 Panthers
Bucs can score...but rarely more than the other team. The Panthers are really good when they put their minds to it, gonna be a tough out in the playoffs.
Texans 19-17 Broncos
Still not sure about the Texans, at their best they look pretty good but still not scary. But a W at Denver is another nice win for them. The Broncos are in a tail spin, that D is still good enough to play spoiler but they're out of the playoff hunt.
Chargers 25-17 Seahawks
I definitely underestimated the Chargers, they just keep chugging along, look like they can beat anybody on any given Sunday, I'm skeptical of them in the post-season, but they look well on their way to getting there--finishing ahead of the Chiefs is still on the table. I've been way more impressed with the Seahawks, too, great QB and good coach can keep a team alive, I reckon.
Titans 28-14 Cowboys
The Titans are on the high side of mediocre, the Cowboys on the lower. This result seemed about right to me.
Week 10
Games I watched (some of):
Panthers 21-52 Steelers
This game was already ridiculously out of hand before I turned it on, but this score wasn't that shocking. When the Panthers don't got it, they pack it in quick; when the Steelers are feeling it, they can run it up on anyone. So that's what happened.
Saints 51-14 Bengals
I was impressed with the Saints. You see that score and you'd probably assume there were defensive plays and special teams and turnovers, etc., but not really; the Saints just scored every time they touched the ball, their offense was absolutely flawless.
Pats 10-34 Titans
Titans came out ready to play, jumped on the Pats early and kept them discombobulated (think we've seen the secret to beating the Pats, right? Score early), and looked good doing it. Titans are a pretty-good team and the Pats have regular missteps, the sheer dominance was eye-opening but the result isn't that shocking.
Cowboys 27-20 Eagles
Just kept waiting for the Eagles to step up and take the W but they did not. The Cowboys looked pretty good on both sides, why don't they look like that more often? I still think the Eagles win the division but time is running out.
Results (surprising):
Bills 41-10 Jets
Jets suck, man. Yup, even worse than the Bills. Buffalo's problem is having no QB behind no O-line, otherwise they're pretty good; the Jets problem is they don't know how to win, so you can't really even tell what the problem is (I kinda like the rookie QB actually, I don't think he's the problem).
Giants 27-23 Niners
Ehh, this wasn't that shocking, except that I thought the Niners would relish the chance to play a crappy offense in a primetime game and they blew their shot at a good W; that said, neither of these teams need to win, so Niners probably did better by fumbling the W away. Even when they win, the Giants are still doing it wrong.
Other results (not so surprising):
Lions 22-34 Bears
The Bears are getting better, the Lions are standing still.
Falcons 16-28 Browns
The Falcons looked good on the road against the Redskins, but against the revitalized Browns, they never got their offense going. Hue Jackson is gone, long live the new Hue.
Jags 26-29 Colts
This looks right to me. The Colts are about a FG better than the Jags, even though the Jags have looked pretty awful for the last month or so.
Cards 14-26 Chiefs
Seems like the Chiefs kinda took the week over and still easily beat the Cards.
Redskins 16-3 Bucs
This sounds right to me. The Bucs can score on anyone, the Redskins can lose to anyone, so of course the Redskins would easily shut down the Bucs on the road.
Chargers 20-6 Raiders
Yup, the predictable game of the week.
Dolphins 12-31 Packers
The Dolphins are not built for the road and certainly not for mid-Autumn Wisconsin, the Packers needed a W like this to kick start them for the rest of the season, they're still in the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are, too. (But I'm not seeing it for either team)
Seahawks 31-36 Rams
The Rams are better but the Seahawks gave them a good game. I'm more impressed with the Seahawks than I expected going into this season. The Rams are still the best in the league but it feels liker they've overheated and may go limping into the post-season.
2018-19 NCAA Football (Weeks 10 & 11)
Week 10
Games I watched (some of):
(6) UGA 34-17 (9) UK
Yeah, that's about right (I predicted 31-13 before the game). You can break the game down to two plays: UGA's opening punt return and UGA 60-yard run up the middle for a TD in the 2nd half. UGA had two big plays, UK had none, rest of the game was roughly even. UK's defense is legit but UGA's O-line is just better, UGA's offense just so much more efficient, UGA winning by 2 TD's was predictable and obvious from UGA's first drive.
(13) West Virginia 42-41 (17) Texas
Great finish! Fun game! Back and forth all the way through, WVA goes for the 2-pointer at the buzzer, great stuff!
(1) Alabama 29-0 (3) LSU
Yeah, just kept waiting for LSU to do anything, something, nah, nothing. LSU's defense put up a game effort but the offense was dead on arrival. Tide uber alles.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (4) Notre Dame, (5) Michigan, (6) Georgia, (7) Oklahoma, (8) Washington State, (10) Ohio State (sorta, Nebraska is not good), (12) Central Florida, (13) West Virginia, (18) Mississippi State, (19) Syracuse, (21) North Carolina State, (22) Boston College, (23) Fresno State, (24) Iowa State
Bad beat
(3) LSU (hey, man, Bama's good)
(9) Kentucky (man, they ain't as good as UGA, UK managed to filter up this high, they should still probably finish top 20)
(16) Texas (tough loss but WVA is good)
Not so good
(11) Florida (dang, they got rolled at home by Missou? Weird)
(14) Penn State (I can't help thinking Penn State has all they need to be better than they are, if they ever put it together, I think they can beat anyone, so to get straight pounded by Michigan is not a good look)
(15) Utah (lame loss on the road)
(16) Iowa (lame loss on the road (although Purdue does have a coupla crazy good W's this year))
(20) Texas A&M (to have a good season you gotta beat a weak Auburn team on the road)
(25) Virginia (sorry performance at home to Pitt)
Week 11
Games I watched (some of):
(11) Kentucky 7-24 Tennessee
(Well, on the radio) UT had big plays all through the 1st half, including a hail mary at the buzzer. These are exactly the kinds of plays that UK's defense staved off throughout the year, but the Vols rained on UK. UT piled on early in the 2nd half, then kinda cruised as UK's offense sputtered.
(Guess I mostly watched soccer and basketball this weekend)
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (4) Michigan, (5) Georgia, (6) Oklahoma, (7) LSU, (8) Washington State, (9) West Virginia, (12) Central Florida, (13) Syracuse, (15) Florida, (19) Texas, (20) Penn State, (22) Iowa State
Bad beat
(16) Mississippi State (hey, man, Bama's good)
(17) Boston College (Clemson is rounding into shape)
(24) Auburn (I thought Auburn might give them a bit of a game, but UGA handled them pretty easily)
Not so good
(11) Kentucky (if UK were as good as we thought, they would've handled a so-so UT squad, instead Vols gashed that defense, UK got exposed)
(14) North Carolina State (L at home to Wake Forest on prime time? Not good)
(21) Iowa (L at home to Northwestern? Kinda surprising)
(23) Fresno State (you gotta win conference games on the road to stay ranked)
Next week's matches:
Middle Tennessee State - (17) Kentucky (Wildcats can still have a great season if they finish strong, this game might bury them)
(12) Syracuse - (3) Notre Dame (doubt this will be much of a game, we'll see)
(24) Cincinnati - (11) Central Florida (UCF's toughest match of the year, I guess)
(16) Iowa State - (15) Texas (these two should be fun)
Games I watched (some of):
(6) UGA 34-17 (9) UK
Yeah, that's about right (I predicted 31-13 before the game). You can break the game down to two plays: UGA's opening punt return and UGA 60-yard run up the middle for a TD in the 2nd half. UGA had two big plays, UK had none, rest of the game was roughly even. UK's defense is legit but UGA's O-line is just better, UGA's offense just so much more efficient, UGA winning by 2 TD's was predictable and obvious from UGA's first drive.
(13) West Virginia 42-41 (17) Texas
Great finish! Fun game! Back and forth all the way through, WVA goes for the 2-pointer at the buzzer, great stuff!
(1) Alabama 29-0 (3) LSU
Yeah, just kept waiting for LSU to do anything, something, nah, nothing. LSU's defense put up a game effort but the offense was dead on arrival. Tide uber alles.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (4) Notre Dame, (5) Michigan, (6) Georgia, (7) Oklahoma, (8) Washington State, (10) Ohio State (sorta, Nebraska is not good), (12) Central Florida, (13) West Virginia, (18) Mississippi State, (19) Syracuse, (21) North Carolina State, (22) Boston College, (23) Fresno State, (24) Iowa State
Bad beat
(3) LSU (hey, man, Bama's good)
(9) Kentucky (man, they ain't as good as UGA, UK managed to filter up this high, they should still probably finish top 20)
(16) Texas (tough loss but WVA is good)
Not so good
(11) Florida (dang, they got rolled at home by Missou? Weird)
(14) Penn State (I can't help thinking Penn State has all they need to be better than they are, if they ever put it together, I think they can beat anyone, so to get straight pounded by Michigan is not a good look)
(15) Utah (lame loss on the road)
(16) Iowa (lame loss on the road (although Purdue does have a coupla crazy good W's this year))
(20) Texas A&M (to have a good season you gotta beat a weak Auburn team on the road)
(25) Virginia (sorry performance at home to Pitt)
Week 11
Games I watched (some of):
(11) Kentucky 7-24 Tennessee
(Well, on the radio) UT had big plays all through the 1st half, including a hail mary at the buzzer. These are exactly the kinds of plays that UK's defense staved off throughout the year, but the Vols rained on UK. UT piled on early in the 2nd half, then kinda cruised as UK's offense sputtered.
(Guess I mostly watched soccer and basketball this weekend)
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (4) Michigan, (5) Georgia, (6) Oklahoma, (7) LSU, (8) Washington State, (9) West Virginia, (12) Central Florida, (13) Syracuse, (15) Florida, (19) Texas, (20) Penn State, (22) Iowa State
Bad beat
(16) Mississippi State (hey, man, Bama's good)
(17) Boston College (Clemson is rounding into shape)
(24) Auburn (I thought Auburn might give them a bit of a game, but UGA handled them pretty easily)
Not so good
(11) Kentucky (if UK were as good as we thought, they would've handled a so-so UT squad, instead Vols gashed that defense, UK got exposed)
(14) North Carolina State (L at home to Wake Forest on prime time? Not good)
(21) Iowa (L at home to Northwestern? Kinda surprising)
(23) Fresno State (you gotta win conference games on the road to stay ranked)
Next week's matches:
Middle Tennessee State - (17) Kentucky (Wildcats can still have a great season if they finish strong, this game might bury them)
(12) Syracuse - (3) Notre Dame (doubt this will be much of a game, we'll see)
(24) Cincinnati - (11) Central Florida (UCF's toughest match of the year, I guess)
(16) Iowa State - (15) Texas (these two should be fun)
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
2018-19 NBA Bric-a-brac (Week 2)
Firings
Tyron Lue (Cavs)
Lue is no longer in the running for Coach of the Year. The post-Lebron period got off to a rough start, apparently the upper management is ready to move on to the youth movement while Coach Lue wanted to milk the vets for W's. Well, neither strategy seems to be working so this parting is probably for the best for both parties. Lue had some health concerns last season so I wouldn't be surprised if he took the rest of the year off and re-appeared late in the playoffs jockeying for a job for next year. Larry Drew becomes the interim (I don't see him keeping the job, though, unless Collin Sexton wins ROY).
Trades
Bucks got Jodie Meeks, a 2020 2nd rd pick swap (actually an alteration of a previous swap that had already been arranged), cash; Wizards got...uh....nothing, as far as I can tell.
Meeks had a (brief) period of being a for-real filler-upper in the NBA but that was a while ago and for the last few years he's been more injured than not and relatively mediocre on the floor; that said, he looks to get some bench minutes as a wing scorer. The pick swap is probably pretty meaningless. Cash is everyone's favorite Xmas gift, so that's nice. As for the Wizards, not taking back anything is not really legal, is it? They needed the roster space to make room for Dwight Howard, I guess.
Pelicans get Wesley Matthews; Clippers get Alexis Ajinca
Pelicans need all the help they can get, Matthews will play whereas Ajinca was only an emergency time sub. The Clippers have already waived Ajinca (who, at best, is the poor-poor-poor man's Anthony Davis, which is to say he kinda looks like AD but has 1/100 of his game).
Signings
Suns -- Jamal Crawford (1yr/$?)
Well, they needed depth at PG but, man, I'm not a Crawford fan to begin with but Phoenix feels like the absolute worst spot for him. All of his bad habits will get plenty of time to develop, at best he's bait for the trade deadline and even if he's great, it'll make zero difference to the team. This is a desperate move for the Suns, which is awkward one week into the season.
Cavs -- Larry Nance Jr (4yr/$?)
This is a 4-yr extension, probably a good move. They entered into this deal with all the optimism that he's a future building block for them, but realistically he's probably more valuable as a trade candidate. Either way, good signing, I like Nance (I really think Lebron would've loved playing with him, too).
Bulls -- Shaq Harrison
Thought he was a better fit for the Suns but the Bulls have already had a ton of injuries, so immediate depth was needed and Shaw will get playing time.
2-way contracts: Pacers (Davon Reed), Lakers (Johnathon Williams), Kings (Troy Williams), Pistons (Zach Lofton)
Extensions
Ahh, it's that time of year, so which rookie contracts got prolonged?
Kings -- De'Aaron Fox, Harry Giles, Skal Labisserie, Buddy Hield, Justin Jackson
The Kings youth movement is well stocked and having good success early on. I think these were all no-brainers, but don't be surprised if some of these guys get traded.
Lakers -- Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma
Yup, all four of them are keepers or top quality trade bait. I think it's already Ingram's team.
Blazers -- Caleb Swanigan, Zach Collins
I liked Swanigan a lot in NCAA, not sure what kind of pro he'd make, but the Blazers seem ready to give him another year (I can see him being a great practice player, which is valuable). The Blazers supposedly love Collins seeing him as the cornerstone of their future; I'm not quite that high on him but extending him is the obvious move.
Hawks -- Taurean Prince, John Collins, Deandre Bembry
Collins was arguably the most under appreciated member of last year's really good rookie class. Prince and Bembry are promising youngsters. All three of these are good moves for the Hawks right now.
Knicks -- Frank Nkilitina
I liked what I saw of Frankie, he's still a project but, hey man, the Knicks got nothing but time to groom youngsters.
Mavs -- Dennis Smith Jr
Smith had his critics last year but he was all alone on that team. Now with Deandre Jordan, Luka Doncic and a healthy Wes Matthews, he'll have more opportunity to be good (and less opportunity to be bad). Good move, he's a Mav for the foreseeable future.
Nets -- Caris LaVert, Jarrett Allen
Nice players, definitely keepers for the Nets.
Pacers -- Myles Turner
Frankly he contributed not much to the Pacers' resurgence last year, if he takes a step forward he could still blossom into a legit star.
Suns -- Josh Jackson
I thought he was the best all-around athlete in the 2017 draft, still not much of a scorer but the Suns will afford him good time to hone his game. Good move.
Waivings
Bucks -- Tim Frazier
I kinda like Frazier, thought he could be useful for some deep bench minutes for them, but I guess the Bucks are deep enough.
Clippers -- Jawun Evans
Don't know much about Evans. I can see him playing for the Hawks, though.
Knicks -- Paul Watson
I don't know who that is.
Pistons -- Reggie Hearn
The rosters get pruned at this time of year and Hearn was probably never likely to make the team.
Suns -- Darrell Arthur, Shaq Harrison, Davon Reed
I thought Harrison fit the youth movement, though Arthur absolutely does not. Reed was moved to make room for Jamal Crawford, I guess.
Pelicans -- Troy Williams
Moved to make room for Tim Frazier.
Lakers -- Travis Wear
The new Mad Dog Madsen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Laker uni Summer League 2019.
Pacers -- CJ Wilcox
I would've thought Wilcox would've made the roster, guess the summer signings took up too much space.
Bulls -- Omer Asik
Why wasn't he waived months ago? There was no way he was gonna play for the Bulls this season regardless of his health.
Injuries
Out indefinitely: Zhaire Smith (Sixers), DeMarre Carroll (Nets), Nene Hilario (Rockets), Daniel Hamilton (Hawks), John Collins (Hawks), Dion Waiters (Heat), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings), Krystaps Porzingas (Knicks), Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs), Michael Porter (Nuggets), Brandon Knight (Rockets), Lonnie Walker (Spurs), Denzel Washington (Bulls), Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Treveon Graham (Nets), Will Barton (Nuggets), Kris Dunn (Bulls), Bobby Portis (Bulls), Luke Kennard (Pistons)
Out for the year: Dejounte Murray (Spurs)
Tyron Lue (Cavs)
Lue is no longer in the running for Coach of the Year. The post-Lebron period got off to a rough start, apparently the upper management is ready to move on to the youth movement while Coach Lue wanted to milk the vets for W's. Well, neither strategy seems to be working so this parting is probably for the best for both parties. Lue had some health concerns last season so I wouldn't be surprised if he took the rest of the year off and re-appeared late in the playoffs jockeying for a job for next year. Larry Drew becomes the interim (I don't see him keeping the job, though, unless Collin Sexton wins ROY).
Trades
Bucks got Jodie Meeks, a 2020 2nd rd pick swap (actually an alteration of a previous swap that had already been arranged), cash; Wizards got...uh....nothing, as far as I can tell.
Meeks had a (brief) period of being a for-real filler-upper in the NBA but that was a while ago and for the last few years he's been more injured than not and relatively mediocre on the floor; that said, he looks to get some bench minutes as a wing scorer. The pick swap is probably pretty meaningless. Cash is everyone's favorite Xmas gift, so that's nice. As for the Wizards, not taking back anything is not really legal, is it? They needed the roster space to make room for Dwight Howard, I guess.
Pelicans get Wesley Matthews; Clippers get Alexis Ajinca
Pelicans need all the help they can get, Matthews will play whereas Ajinca was only an emergency time sub. The Clippers have already waived Ajinca (who, at best, is the poor-poor-poor man's Anthony Davis, which is to say he kinda looks like AD but has 1/100 of his game).
Signings
Suns -- Jamal Crawford (1yr/$?)
Well, they needed depth at PG but, man, I'm not a Crawford fan to begin with but Phoenix feels like the absolute worst spot for him. All of his bad habits will get plenty of time to develop, at best he's bait for the trade deadline and even if he's great, it'll make zero difference to the team. This is a desperate move for the Suns, which is awkward one week into the season.
Cavs -- Larry Nance Jr (4yr/$?)
This is a 4-yr extension, probably a good move. They entered into this deal with all the optimism that he's a future building block for them, but realistically he's probably more valuable as a trade candidate. Either way, good signing, I like Nance (I really think Lebron would've loved playing with him, too).
Bulls -- Shaq Harrison
Thought he was a better fit for the Suns but the Bulls have already had a ton of injuries, so immediate depth was needed and Shaw will get playing time.
2-way contracts: Pacers (Davon Reed), Lakers (Johnathon Williams), Kings (Troy Williams), Pistons (Zach Lofton)
Extensions
Ahh, it's that time of year, so which rookie contracts got prolonged?
Kings -- De'Aaron Fox, Harry Giles, Skal Labisserie, Buddy Hield, Justin Jackson
The Kings youth movement is well stocked and having good success early on. I think these were all no-brainers, but don't be surprised if some of these guys get traded.
Lakers -- Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma
Yup, all four of them are keepers or top quality trade bait. I think it's already Ingram's team.
Blazers -- Caleb Swanigan, Zach Collins
I liked Swanigan a lot in NCAA, not sure what kind of pro he'd make, but the Blazers seem ready to give him another year (I can see him being a great practice player, which is valuable). The Blazers supposedly love Collins seeing him as the cornerstone of their future; I'm not quite that high on him but extending him is the obvious move.
Hawks -- Taurean Prince, John Collins, Deandre Bembry
Collins was arguably the most under appreciated member of last year's really good rookie class. Prince and Bembry are promising youngsters. All three of these are good moves for the Hawks right now.
Knicks -- Frank Nkilitina
I liked what I saw of Frankie, he's still a project but, hey man, the Knicks got nothing but time to groom youngsters.
Mavs -- Dennis Smith Jr
Smith had his critics last year but he was all alone on that team. Now with Deandre Jordan, Luka Doncic and a healthy Wes Matthews, he'll have more opportunity to be good (and less opportunity to be bad). Good move, he's a Mav for the foreseeable future.
Nets -- Caris LaVert, Jarrett Allen
Nice players, definitely keepers for the Nets.
Pacers -- Myles Turner
Frankly he contributed not much to the Pacers' resurgence last year, if he takes a step forward he could still blossom into a legit star.
Suns -- Josh Jackson
I thought he was the best all-around athlete in the 2017 draft, still not much of a scorer but the Suns will afford him good time to hone his game. Good move.
Waivings
Bucks -- Tim Frazier
I kinda like Frazier, thought he could be useful for some deep bench minutes for them, but I guess the Bucks are deep enough.
Clippers -- Jawun Evans
Don't know much about Evans. I can see him playing for the Hawks, though.
Knicks -- Paul Watson
I don't know who that is.
Pistons -- Reggie Hearn
The rosters get pruned at this time of year and Hearn was probably never likely to make the team.
Suns -- Darrell Arthur, Shaq Harrison, Davon Reed
I thought Harrison fit the youth movement, though Arthur absolutely does not. Reed was moved to make room for Jamal Crawford, I guess.
Pelicans -- Troy Williams
Moved to make room for Tim Frazier.
Lakers -- Travis Wear
The new Mad Dog Madsen. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Laker uni Summer League 2019.
Pacers -- CJ Wilcox
I would've thought Wilcox would've made the roster, guess the summer signings took up too much space.
Bulls -- Omer Asik
Why wasn't he waived months ago? There was no way he was gonna play for the Bulls this season regardless of his health.
Injuries
Out indefinitely: Zhaire Smith (Sixers), DeMarre Carroll (Nets), Nene Hilario (Rockets), Daniel Hamilton (Hawks), John Collins (Hawks), Dion Waiters (Heat), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings), Krystaps Porzingas (Knicks), Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs), Michael Porter (Nuggets), Brandon Knight (Rockets), Lonnie Walker (Spurs), Denzel Washington (Bulls), Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Treveon Graham (Nets), Will Barton (Nuggets), Kris Dunn (Bulls), Bobby Portis (Bulls), Luke Kennard (Pistons)
Out for the year: Dejounte Murray (Spurs)
2018-19 NFL (Week 8)
Games I watched (some of):
Dolphins 23-42 Texans
The Texans handled their business at home, good to see, wasn't sure they had it in them. I still (kinda) believe in the Texans: when Watson is right, he's really good and when that pass rush is working, the D is really good. They can still become a really good team in time for the playoffs (took the Jags to the final four last year), but they've still got to build on wins like this. The Dolphins are middle of the pack in just about every metric. They don't suck but they're not good either.
Bucs 34-37 Bengals
What a slopfest! The Bengals ran up a big lead by halftime then just sorta quit playing in the 2nd half. I didn't see any great change or improvement in the Bucs D in the 2nd half, the Bengals just took the foot off the gas, I guess because they thought Winston was gonna keep throwing interceptions (well, he did for a while). But when the Bucs went for Fitzpatrick, the Bengals watched it all crumble in front of them and stood there waiting for it to happen. I don't get that. The Bucs tied it up late, the Bengals got a late FG to finish it off (something they could've done at any point after halftime, but they...I dunno...chose to wait til the last second?). The Bengals have a good offense and an okay defense and when they bring their game, they're not bad; but when they don't bring their game, they not any better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fun game for Fitz-magic but not a good showing for the Bengals (or the Bucs, for that matter).
Packers 27-29 Rams
Really thought the Packers had a shot at winning this game (and I can't say I'm shocked the fumbling kick returner got traded immediately). The Rams seemed kinda sluggish for much of this game, they won by inertia, they've become used to winning every week (which is a good place to be). But if Aaron Rodgers had had that shot at a final drive, I believe he could've gotten them the W. Bad beat for the Packers, still a good W for the Rams.
Other results (surprising):
Seahawks 28-14 Lions
The Lions seem to get it up for some teams (Pats, Packers) but not for others (Jets, Niners), so are they a good team that disappoints or a bad team that plays above themselves at times? I dunno. I'm still convinced the Seahawks are going backwards but they've got a good QB and solid head coach, so they'll continue to win games on their down.
Saints 30-20 Vikings
I caught a little of this game (I was still watching baseball), but it seemed to me that the Viking WR's made mistakes that kept the Saints in this game. I can't say the Vikings should've won but it seems like they should've shone out a little better at home. That said, the Saints are good, they are legit Super Bowl contenders and this is not a bad loss for the Vikings.
Other results (not so surprising):
Eagles 24-18 Jags
I hate the London games. I hate the Toronto games, the Mexico City games, I hate the Thursday games (outside of Thanksgiving and opening night), every team should get 8 home games and shipping the teams off to expand markets should be internally frowned upon. The NFL should be looking to expand their profits by making their product more scarce instead of less and these efforts at reaching out to new fanbases is watering down the product and creating more injuries. And, yeah, the Jags still suck.
Jets 10-24 Bears
On the one hand this is a rookie QB on the road against a top notch defense; on the other hand, it's a spunky underachiever going up against Mitchell Trubisky. This is the NFL: even though it seems like a no-brainer that the Bears are better than the Jets, this game is really a lot more even than you'd think. Or maybe not, the Bears won pretty easily.
Broncos 23-30 Chiefs
Division games, man. You'd think the Chiefs would destroy the Broncos, who are pretty terrible on the road, but when a team plays the same team over and over, they learn tendencies and they can create surprises. I'm still convinced the Chiefs are way better than the Broncos.
Redskins 20-13 Giants
I thought the Giants would take this one and it looks like the Redskins tried to give it away late. Division games, man, are unpredictable.
Browns 18-33 Steelers
I kinda thought the Browns would keep them close but it wasn't to be. The Steelers defense has the amazing ability to incite penalties on the other team and/or commit a ton of penalties at the same time. They play with such an uncontrolled ferocity that it inspires panic and creates stupidity. Not sure that'll work against every team but against a rookie QB with a fired coach (and fired OC), it worked just fine. I'm still shaky on the Steelers.
Ravens 21-36 Panthers
Ravens on the road are just not that good. Panthers are up and down, they decided to be up this week--good for them!
Colts 42-28 Raiders
The Colts are spunky, man, they play hard and they can move the ball. Their record is probably not gonna be good enough to get them to the post-season (although their division is a total mystery, so maybe they got a shot), but I'd love to see them in the playoffs just because they play hard and can be dangerous with playground plays. The Raiders, on the other hand, seem bent on stockpiling draft picks, which means more L's are way more valuable than W's.
Niners 15-18 Cards
When two bad teams get together you can count on bad football. But when they're division rivals, anything can happen. Kinda felt like the Niners were gonna pull it out but the Cards just wanted it more, I reckon.
Pats 25-6 Bills
Oh yeah, perfectly ordinary late season Pats performance in Buffalo: they kinda floundered around for a while because they're eager to show as little as possible but still comfortably covered the spread by the end of the game.
Dolphins 23-42 Texans
The Texans handled their business at home, good to see, wasn't sure they had it in them. I still (kinda) believe in the Texans: when Watson is right, he's really good and when that pass rush is working, the D is really good. They can still become a really good team in time for the playoffs (took the Jags to the final four last year), but they've still got to build on wins like this. The Dolphins are middle of the pack in just about every metric. They don't suck but they're not good either.
Bucs 34-37 Bengals
What a slopfest! The Bengals ran up a big lead by halftime then just sorta quit playing in the 2nd half. I didn't see any great change or improvement in the Bucs D in the 2nd half, the Bengals just took the foot off the gas, I guess because they thought Winston was gonna keep throwing interceptions (well, he did for a while). But when the Bucs went for Fitzpatrick, the Bengals watched it all crumble in front of them and stood there waiting for it to happen. I don't get that. The Bucs tied it up late, the Bengals got a late FG to finish it off (something they could've done at any point after halftime, but they...I dunno...chose to wait til the last second?). The Bengals have a good offense and an okay defense and when they bring their game, they're not bad; but when they don't bring their game, they not any better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fun game for Fitz-magic but not a good showing for the Bengals (or the Bucs, for that matter).
Packers 27-29 Rams
Really thought the Packers had a shot at winning this game (and I can't say I'm shocked the fumbling kick returner got traded immediately). The Rams seemed kinda sluggish for much of this game, they won by inertia, they've become used to winning every week (which is a good place to be). But if Aaron Rodgers had had that shot at a final drive, I believe he could've gotten them the W. Bad beat for the Packers, still a good W for the Rams.
Other results (surprising):
Seahawks 28-14 Lions
The Lions seem to get it up for some teams (Pats, Packers) but not for others (Jets, Niners), so are they a good team that disappoints or a bad team that plays above themselves at times? I dunno. I'm still convinced the Seahawks are going backwards but they've got a good QB and solid head coach, so they'll continue to win games on their down.
Saints 30-20 Vikings
I caught a little of this game (I was still watching baseball), but it seemed to me that the Viking WR's made mistakes that kept the Saints in this game. I can't say the Vikings should've won but it seems like they should've shone out a little better at home. That said, the Saints are good, they are legit Super Bowl contenders and this is not a bad loss for the Vikings.
Other results (not so surprising):
Eagles 24-18 Jags
I hate the London games. I hate the Toronto games, the Mexico City games, I hate the Thursday games (outside of Thanksgiving and opening night), every team should get 8 home games and shipping the teams off to expand markets should be internally frowned upon. The NFL should be looking to expand their profits by making their product more scarce instead of less and these efforts at reaching out to new fanbases is watering down the product and creating more injuries. And, yeah, the Jags still suck.
Jets 10-24 Bears
On the one hand this is a rookie QB on the road against a top notch defense; on the other hand, it's a spunky underachiever going up against Mitchell Trubisky. This is the NFL: even though it seems like a no-brainer that the Bears are better than the Jets, this game is really a lot more even than you'd think. Or maybe not, the Bears won pretty easily.
Broncos 23-30 Chiefs
Division games, man. You'd think the Chiefs would destroy the Broncos, who are pretty terrible on the road, but when a team plays the same team over and over, they learn tendencies and they can create surprises. I'm still convinced the Chiefs are way better than the Broncos.
Redskins 20-13 Giants
I thought the Giants would take this one and it looks like the Redskins tried to give it away late. Division games, man, are unpredictable.
Browns 18-33 Steelers
I kinda thought the Browns would keep them close but it wasn't to be. The Steelers defense has the amazing ability to incite penalties on the other team and/or commit a ton of penalties at the same time. They play with such an uncontrolled ferocity that it inspires panic and creates stupidity. Not sure that'll work against every team but against a rookie QB with a fired coach (and fired OC), it worked just fine. I'm still shaky on the Steelers.
Ravens 21-36 Panthers
Ravens on the road are just not that good. Panthers are up and down, they decided to be up this week--good for them!
Colts 42-28 Raiders
The Colts are spunky, man, they play hard and they can move the ball. Their record is probably not gonna be good enough to get them to the post-season (although their division is a total mystery, so maybe they got a shot), but I'd love to see them in the playoffs just because they play hard and can be dangerous with playground plays. The Raiders, on the other hand, seem bent on stockpiling draft picks, which means more L's are way more valuable than W's.
Niners 15-18 Cards
When two bad teams get together you can count on bad football. But when they're division rivals, anything can happen. Kinda felt like the Niners were gonna pull it out but the Cards just wanted it more, I reckon.
Pats 25-6 Bills
Oh yeah, perfectly ordinary late season Pats performance in Buffalo: they kinda floundered around for a while because they're eager to show as little as possible but still comfortably covered the spread by the end of the game.
2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 9)
Games I watched (some of):
(9) Florida 17-36 (7) Georgia
Not close. Thought this was similar to Georgia's over LSU the week before: UGA's offense just kept grinding while the other side just kept spinning its wheels. Georgia broke it open in the 2nd half but realistically it never felt like Florida was in this game.
(12) Kentucky 15-14 Missouri
I didn't see any of this game but I listened to it on the radio while watching the Gamecast. The 1st half was a typical one for UK fans and most of the 2nd half was, too, with one difference: man, UK's defense is really good and they held Missouri to zero 1st downs in the 2nd half (yup, zero). UK's offense is hamfisted at best but the D kept it close enough for a special teams TD to make a huge difference. A miracle final drive pulled out the W as Missouri went down in a most Kentucky-like fashion. (Funny: the Gamecast flaked out on that last untimed down, it couldn't comprehend that even though there was no time on the clock, the game was not over--ESPN even changed the records of the teams and the SEC standings, while I'm sitting there going, 'No, dude, there's still another play left!) Does Kentucky have a chance against Georgia this week? Ehh, I'm not seeing it. They'll need a lot of UGA turnovers to keep this one alive, otherwise UK just does not have enough offense to outscore Georgia.
Top 25
Handled their business
(2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (7) Georgia, (8) Oklahoma, (12) Kentucky, (13) West Virginia, (14) Washington State, (17) Penn State, (23) Utah
Bad Beat
(9) Florida (they were ranked a little high, they're not as good as Georgia)
(18) Iowa (Penn State at home is still a tough out, even when the Nittany Lions are playing wounded)
Not so good
(6) Texas (I thought they were ranked a little high but I also thought they'd get it done at Oklahoma State)
(15) Washington (the scoring dried up in Berkeley, not a good look against a down Cal side)
(16) Texas A&M (the SEC West is a meat grinder, A&M got ground)
(19) Oregon (ouch! Destroyed at Arizona, I think Oregon has been as up and as down as anyone all year long)
(20) Wisconsin (their anemic offense was not enough to sneak past Northwestern)
(21) South Florida (got rolled at Houston)
(22) North Carolina State (gave up a lot of points in Syracuse)
(24) Stanford (they should probably be better than Washington State, especially at home, but this Stanford team is hardly vintage)
(25) Appalachian State (rolled by Georgia Southern, not good)
Next week's interesting matches:
(6) Georgia @ (9) Kentucky
(13) West Virginia @ (17) Texas
(14) Penn State @ (5) Michigan
(1) Alabama @ (3) LSU
(9) Florida 17-36 (7) Georgia
Not close. Thought this was similar to Georgia's over LSU the week before: UGA's offense just kept grinding while the other side just kept spinning its wheels. Georgia broke it open in the 2nd half but realistically it never felt like Florida was in this game.
(12) Kentucky 15-14 Missouri
I didn't see any of this game but I listened to it on the radio while watching the Gamecast. The 1st half was a typical one for UK fans and most of the 2nd half was, too, with one difference: man, UK's defense is really good and they held Missouri to zero 1st downs in the 2nd half (yup, zero). UK's offense is hamfisted at best but the D kept it close enough for a special teams TD to make a huge difference. A miracle final drive pulled out the W as Missouri went down in a most Kentucky-like fashion. (Funny: the Gamecast flaked out on that last untimed down, it couldn't comprehend that even though there was no time on the clock, the game was not over--ESPN even changed the records of the teams and the SEC standings, while I'm sitting there going, 'No, dude, there's still another play left!) Does Kentucky have a chance against Georgia this week? Ehh, I'm not seeing it. They'll need a lot of UGA turnovers to keep this one alive, otherwise UK just does not have enough offense to outscore Georgia.
Top 25
Handled their business
(2) Clemson, (3) Notre Dame, (7) Georgia, (8) Oklahoma, (12) Kentucky, (13) West Virginia, (14) Washington State, (17) Penn State, (23) Utah
Bad Beat
(9) Florida (they were ranked a little high, they're not as good as Georgia)
(18) Iowa (Penn State at home is still a tough out, even when the Nittany Lions are playing wounded)
Not so good
(6) Texas (I thought they were ranked a little high but I also thought they'd get it done at Oklahoma State)
(15) Washington (the scoring dried up in Berkeley, not a good look against a down Cal side)
(16) Texas A&M (the SEC West is a meat grinder, A&M got ground)
(19) Oregon (ouch! Destroyed at Arizona, I think Oregon has been as up and as down as anyone all year long)
(20) Wisconsin (their anemic offense was not enough to sneak past Northwestern)
(21) South Florida (got rolled at Houston)
(22) North Carolina State (gave up a lot of points in Syracuse)
(24) Stanford (they should probably be better than Washington State, especially at home, but this Stanford team is hardly vintage)
(25) Appalachian State (rolled by Georgia Southern, not good)
Next week's interesting matches:
(6) Georgia @ (9) Kentucky
(13) West Virginia @ (17) Texas
(14) Penn State @ (5) Michigan
(1) Alabama @ (3) LSU
2018 World Series
Red Sox over Dodgers in 5
If you don't like baseball, you'll never get how much tension and drama the game creates--even when nothing is happening! If you don't like baseball, you just see nothing; but baseball lovers came away from this World Series with a new admiration of Nathan Eovaldi, a guy that expertly did almost nothing for 9 full innings, and it was a joy to watch (even though he ended up taking the loss).
I thought the Sox's advantage was the weird dimensions of Fenway Park and the frigid temps of New England in October. So when they took the first two games at home I didn't chalk it up to the Sox being wildly better than the Dodgers. Indeed, I was actually pretty impressed with how the Dodgers played in those first two games and thought they had a good chance to sweep the LA games and head back to Fenway looking to close out the Sox (though even then I still would've liked the Red Sox chances of taking the final two games). And when Game Three went an epic 18 innings (normally I pay little/no attention to TV commentators but on this night I kinda pitied how fucking tired they must be just sitting in the same chairs for all that time), I thought it portended well for the Dodgers. Not unlike the NLCS when an extra inning game warped the Brewer bullpen, I thought the Sox that would pay the price for the unexpected time on the field. Nope, not so much. It was the Dodger bullpen that couldn't get it together in the next coupla games.
I'm cool with Steve Pearce being the MVP, he had some big hits and was definitely a major contributor. But really I thought the Sox lineup all played pretty good but not great, including Pearce. I would've gone with David Price as MVP, I just thought his Series was great, he did everything that needed to be done despite his poor playoff history and rocky time in Boston. And given that in the clinching game, he gave up a homer on the first pitch...and then nothing after that...was something special and should've been rewarded. Also, symbolically Price was the guy that has been there the whole time and endured a lot of criticism who shook off his doubts and performed at a high level when no one thought he could, whereas Pearce is a journeyman who just joined the team, might not be back next year. Pearce is a fine choice but I think Price was the better story and I'm surprised the voters missed that.
Obviously the Red Sox were the best team in baseball this year. With 108 regular season wins and relatively easy victories over the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers (*), it seems like the discussion will soon turn to whether this team is one of the best teams ever. I'm not in on that. This team was good but their pitching was hardly one of the greats of all time and the lineup struck me as good but not great, good at getting timely hitting (dare I say 'clutch'?) but not overpowering or unbeatable. This team just had the ability to outlast their opponents. Huzzah for the Red Sox. They won it all and they deserved it. And I enjoyed it every step of the way because I love good baseball and this was good baseball.
(*) The Red Sox became the first team ever to defeat both of the prior World Series participants to win the championship. Weird, that doesn't seem like it would be that uncommon.
If you don't like baseball, you'll never get how much tension and drama the game creates--even when nothing is happening! If you don't like baseball, you just see nothing; but baseball lovers came away from this World Series with a new admiration of Nathan Eovaldi, a guy that expertly did almost nothing for 9 full innings, and it was a joy to watch (even though he ended up taking the loss).
I thought the Sox's advantage was the weird dimensions of Fenway Park and the frigid temps of New England in October. So when they took the first two games at home I didn't chalk it up to the Sox being wildly better than the Dodgers. Indeed, I was actually pretty impressed with how the Dodgers played in those first two games and thought they had a good chance to sweep the LA games and head back to Fenway looking to close out the Sox (though even then I still would've liked the Red Sox chances of taking the final two games). And when Game Three went an epic 18 innings (normally I pay little/no attention to TV commentators but on this night I kinda pitied how fucking tired they must be just sitting in the same chairs for all that time), I thought it portended well for the Dodgers. Not unlike the NLCS when an extra inning game warped the Brewer bullpen, I thought the Sox that would pay the price for the unexpected time on the field. Nope, not so much. It was the Dodger bullpen that couldn't get it together in the next coupla games.
I'm cool with Steve Pearce being the MVP, he had some big hits and was definitely a major contributor. But really I thought the Sox lineup all played pretty good but not great, including Pearce. I would've gone with David Price as MVP, I just thought his Series was great, he did everything that needed to be done despite his poor playoff history and rocky time in Boston. And given that in the clinching game, he gave up a homer on the first pitch...and then nothing after that...was something special and should've been rewarded. Also, symbolically Price was the guy that has been there the whole time and endured a lot of criticism who shook off his doubts and performed at a high level when no one thought he could, whereas Pearce is a journeyman who just joined the team, might not be back next year. Pearce is a fine choice but I think Price was the better story and I'm surprised the voters missed that.
Obviously the Red Sox were the best team in baseball this year. With 108 regular season wins and relatively easy victories over the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers (*), it seems like the discussion will soon turn to whether this team is one of the best teams ever. I'm not in on that. This team was good but their pitching was hardly one of the greats of all time and the lineup struck me as good but not great, good at getting timely hitting (dare I say 'clutch'?) but not overpowering or unbeatable. This team just had the ability to outlast their opponents. Huzzah for the Red Sox. They won it all and they deserved it. And I enjoyed it every step of the way because I love good baseball and this was good baseball.
(*) The Red Sox became the first team ever to defeat both of the prior World Series participants to win the championship. Weird, that doesn't seem like it would be that uncommon.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
2018-19 NFL (Weeks 6 & 7)
Games I watched (some of):
Texans 20-7 Jags
Other results (not so surprising):
Bills 5-37 Colts
Bills got a safety, not bad.
Vikings 37-17 Jets
Yeah, the Vikings should throttle bad teams.
Browns 23-26 (OT) Bucs
I thought the Browns had this one, but they tried to bungle it even harder than Tampa Bay did. The Browns are moving in the right direction, at least, not sure I'd say the same about the Bucs.
Saints 24-23 Ravens
The Saints live on the 2-minute offense, they're built to snatch games away from the other team. And the Ravens are kinda built to get snatched, so, yeah.
Rams 39-10 Niners
The Rams brought a little more than I thought they would but they're a much better team than the Niners.
Giants 20-23 Falcons
The Falcons don't blow people out, the Giants have enough talent and savvy to hang around. If I were a Falcons fan I'd really want them to score more against sorry squads like NYG, but realistically, this is about right.
Week 6
Games I watched (some of):
Eagles 34-13 Giants
Man, NYG is like that friend that dresses nice so you keep inviting him to events but he otherwise has nothing else to offer, so he just kinda stands around: you still wanna like him but what's to like? Saquon Barkley is one of the most exciting players in the game right now and he's stuck on this sorry team, hurts my heart. As for the Eagles, they're kinda what I thought they'd be: good one week, crappy the next, up and down with no flow. They'll still win the division, they just need to get hot at the right time and they might be defending their championship (yeah, still very possible).
Steelers 28-21 Bengals
The Bengals scored late, took the lead, but you knew the Steelers still had enough time left to get it done. Even the play itself: you saw the blitz coming, so did Roethlisberger, the middle was wide open, easy TD. The Steelers are sloppy but still have the talent to get hot and win games, the Bengals are pretty good but you never can tell whether they'll finish a game or not.
Ravens 21-0 Titans
Yeah, this was every bit as boring as that score indicates. When the Ravens 'dominate' a game, it's like watching really good paint dry.
Chiefs 40-43 Pats
Great game! Felt like Mahomes was a little nervous early on, the Chiefs kinda struggled in the 1st half. But once he settled in, the Chiefs machine just did whatever it wanted against the Pats' D. Good work by the Pats to pull out the W.
Other results (surprising):
Bears 28-31 (OT) Dolphins
Brock Osweiler pulling out the late win over one of the better defenses of the last few years? Yup, that happened.
Colts 34-42 Jets
Where did the Jets get 42 points? The Colts are one of those teams I wanna like because Andrew Luck is becoming a little Rodgers-ish these days but there's just not enough around him to give the Colts any consistency. As for the Jets, I dunno, they've got nothing to lose every time they take the field and that's occasionally dangerous.
Bills 13-20 Texans
I still can't wrap my head around the Texans: it feels like they've got plenty of offense to win games and plenty of defense to hold the leads. So why did they need a lucky play late against arguably the worst QB of the last 10 years (Nathan Peterman--even the Bills haven't had worse than him!) to snatch a late win?
Jags 7-40 Cowboys
The Cowboys let it all hang out. Good for them, though they might've wanted to save some of those points for the rest of the season. As for the Jags, they're going in the wrong direction, that D does not look so fearsome and the offense is sputtering right when it ought to be in a groove.
Other results (not so surprising):
Bucs 29-34 Falcons
Falcons at home ought to outscore most everyone but especially a goofy division foe.
Chargers 38-14 Browns
The Chargers have won me over: I finally believe these guys can win games (well, perhaps it's more realistic to say the Colts, Bengals, Jags, Texans and Dolphins have not won me over). As for the Browns, they're gonna hang with a lot of teams this year but the Chargers are one of those that can fly right by them. And that's what happened.
Seahawks 27-3 Raiders
I forgot this game was in London. Not that that matters but I would've given the Raiders a slightly better chance at home. As for the Seahawks, they're competing through inertia, I'm still convinced they're not any good (and this result doesn't change my mind).
Cards 17-27 Vikings
I thought the Vikings would struggle early but once they get going, they're gonna be just fine--and I think they're getting to that groove. Yes, they probably should've beaten a crappy team like the Cards more convincingly but veteran squads that are ready to win are not worried about style points. I think this is a solid win for the Vikings.
Panthers 17-23 Redskins
Yeah, these two teams have enough talent to be good but enough fuck-up in their DNA to keep them from getting ahead. So when this game came down to the final drive, it really could've gone either way. Fun finish but somebody had to fuck it up (it was the Panthers this week).
Rams 23-20 Broncos
The Broncos are not bad at home. The Rams are good everywhere. This looks about right.
Pats 38-31 Bears
Fun game! Pats were the better team and I never thought the Bears would pull it out but they did manage to keep things interesting. Weird play: last minute, Pats up by 7, the ball on the Bears 34-ish yard line, why not go for it on 4th down? They punted, Bears get the ball at the 20, but who cares about that 10 yards? Why not throw it at the end zone, go for either the game winning TD, the game finishing pass interference call or you give them the ball at 35 instead of the 20? Trubisky is actually much more dangerous as a runner than a passer, I like his instincts when he tucks it and takes off; as a passer he was sailing passes all day, he's got skills, but we have expectations that dudes are just gonna kick ass as soon as they take the field, I'm not sure he'll get the time to develop the way he clearly needs to. The Pats are still the class of the AFC but they're certainly not untouchable. That D is savvy but slow.
Panthers 21-17 Eagles
For the first three quarters I saw a Panthers D-line that could not hang with the Eagles O-line. Then in the 4th, the Panthers did whatever they wanted and the Eagles looked like a turtle flipped over in the sun. The Eagles are gonna be up and down all year, I think that's who they are, and that's what they looked like here (up for three quarters, down for one). The Panthers are mercurial: when they want to look good, they do, so why don't they want to look good more often? They've got the talent on both sides, they just don't have the effort. I don't see them being better than the Saints throughout the regular season, but I can see them getting hot in the post-season.
Cowboys 17-20 Redskins
Division rivalry. The Redskins were generally the better team, the Cowboys came back late to make it look close (actually just a kick off the post away from sending it to OT) and I guess that means it was a close game. But it never felt like it. Not that the Redskins are awesome but I think they're better than the Cowboys on both sides.
Bengals 10-45 Chiefs
I kinda liked the Bengals chances in this game not because I thought they'd keep the Chiefs from scoring (they did not), but that the Chiefs D is pretty sorry and would give the Bengals a chance to run up some points of their own. I do think the Chiefs can be beat--if they turn the ball over--but we've seen the flipside of that, too: if you turn the ball over to them, the game is over because you have to score pretty much every time in order to hang with the Chiefs. I was kinda shocked by the Chiefs pass rush, they made plays and kept Andy Dalton from getting going, which might've kept the Bengals in this game. Instead it got kinda chippy near the end. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, the Bengals are in the muddled middle (and very much in danger of falling behind the Steelers).
Other results (surprising):
Lions 32-21 Dolphins
These two strike me as kinda similar, but the Lions have an air of renewal about them suddenly whereas the Dolphins...do not. The Dolphins should've won this game at home but they didn't. The Lions are downright plucky, if the Bears have trouble scoring and the Packers can't get going, the Lions may well sneak a few unexpected W's and be in the playoff race (I wouldn't bet on it but not impossible).
Titans 19-20 Chargers
I wasn't surprised by this score until it dawned on me that this was in LA, not in Tennessee. Huh. If the Titans had a plucky performance, kept the Chargers from taking off and clawed back to make it close at home, that would've seemed reasonable to me; but at home I would think the Chargers would jump on a weaker team early, pile up points and keep the pressure up til the spread was comfortably covered. The Titans aren't bad, they're good enough to stay in games but unlucky enough to come up short more often than not, I doubt they're a playoff team, they kinda have 8-8 written all over them; but the Chargers offense is reliable and efficient and it is how they can win games, for them to sputter at home to a mediocre conference opponent is troubling. This is a game the Chargers should've won handily.
I wasn't surprised by this score until it dawned on me that this was in LA, not in Tennessee. Huh. If the Titans had a plucky performance, kept the Chargers from taking off and clawed back to make it close at home, that would've seemed reasonable to me; but at home I would think the Chargers would jump on a weaker team early, pile up points and keep the pressure up til the spread was comfortably covered. The Titans aren't bad, they're good enough to stay in games but unlucky enough to come up short more often than not, I doubt they're a playoff team, they kinda have 8-8 written all over them; but the Chargers offense is reliable and efficient and it is how they can win games, for them to sputter at home to a mediocre conference opponent is troubling. This is a game the Chargers should've won handily.
The Texans....but the Jags....yeah, typical day in the AFC South. The Jags D is crumbling, the offense has no consistency...but the Texans are not exactly firing on all cylinders. I dunno, division game. I shouldn't say I was surprised because any result would've surprised me.
Other results (not so surprising):
Broncos 45-10 Cards
The score doesn't really tell the story--this game wasn't that close! Man, I didn't watch too closely but all I saw was Broncos making plays and Cards getting unlucky. The Broncos are not good on the road but they looked like the '27 Yankees against Arizona.
Bills got a safety, not bad.
Vikings 37-17 Jets
Yeah, the Vikings should throttle bad teams.
Browns 23-26 (OT) Bucs
I thought the Browns had this one, but they tried to bungle it even harder than Tampa Bay did. The Browns are moving in the right direction, at least, not sure I'd say the same about the Bucs.
Saints 24-23 Ravens
The Saints live on the 2-minute offense, they're built to snatch games away from the other team. And the Ravens are kinda built to get snatched, so, yeah.
Rams 39-10 Niners
The Rams brought a little more than I thought they would but they're a much better team than the Niners.
Giants 20-23 Falcons
The Falcons don't blow people out, the Giants have enough talent and savvy to hang around. If I were a Falcons fan I'd really want them to score more against sorry squads like NYG, but realistically, this is about right.
Week 6
Games I watched (some of):
Eagles 34-13 Giants
Man, NYG is like that friend that dresses nice so you keep inviting him to events but he otherwise has nothing else to offer, so he just kinda stands around: you still wanna like him but what's to like? Saquon Barkley is one of the most exciting players in the game right now and he's stuck on this sorry team, hurts my heart. As for the Eagles, they're kinda what I thought they'd be: good one week, crappy the next, up and down with no flow. They'll still win the division, they just need to get hot at the right time and they might be defending their championship (yeah, still very possible).
Steelers 28-21 Bengals
The Bengals scored late, took the lead, but you knew the Steelers still had enough time left to get it done. Even the play itself: you saw the blitz coming, so did Roethlisberger, the middle was wide open, easy TD. The Steelers are sloppy but still have the talent to get hot and win games, the Bengals are pretty good but you never can tell whether they'll finish a game or not.
Ravens 21-0 Titans
Yeah, this was every bit as boring as that score indicates. When the Ravens 'dominate' a game, it's like watching really good paint dry.
Chiefs 40-43 Pats
Great game! Felt like Mahomes was a little nervous early on, the Chiefs kinda struggled in the 1st half. But once he settled in, the Chiefs machine just did whatever it wanted against the Pats' D. Good work by the Pats to pull out the W.
Other results (surprising):
Bears 28-31 (OT) Dolphins
Brock Osweiler pulling out the late win over one of the better defenses of the last few years? Yup, that happened.
Colts 34-42 Jets
Where did the Jets get 42 points? The Colts are one of those teams I wanna like because Andrew Luck is becoming a little Rodgers-ish these days but there's just not enough around him to give the Colts any consistency. As for the Jets, I dunno, they've got nothing to lose every time they take the field and that's occasionally dangerous.
Bills 13-20 Texans
I still can't wrap my head around the Texans: it feels like they've got plenty of offense to win games and plenty of defense to hold the leads. So why did they need a lucky play late against arguably the worst QB of the last 10 years (Nathan Peterman--even the Bills haven't had worse than him!) to snatch a late win?
Jags 7-40 Cowboys
The Cowboys let it all hang out. Good for them, though they might've wanted to save some of those points for the rest of the season. As for the Jags, they're going in the wrong direction, that D does not look so fearsome and the offense is sputtering right when it ought to be in a groove.
Other results (not so surprising):
Bucs 29-34 Falcons
Falcons at home ought to outscore most everyone but especially a goofy division foe.
Chargers 38-14 Browns
The Chargers have won me over: I finally believe these guys can win games (well, perhaps it's more realistic to say the Colts, Bengals, Jags, Texans and Dolphins have not won me over). As for the Browns, they're gonna hang with a lot of teams this year but the Chargers are one of those that can fly right by them. And that's what happened.
Seahawks 27-3 Raiders
I forgot this game was in London. Not that that matters but I would've given the Raiders a slightly better chance at home. As for the Seahawks, they're competing through inertia, I'm still convinced they're not any good (and this result doesn't change my mind).
Cards 17-27 Vikings
I thought the Vikings would struggle early but once they get going, they're gonna be just fine--and I think they're getting to that groove. Yes, they probably should've beaten a crappy team like the Cards more convincingly but veteran squads that are ready to win are not worried about style points. I think this is a solid win for the Vikings.
Panthers 17-23 Redskins
Yeah, these two teams have enough talent to be good but enough fuck-up in their DNA to keep them from getting ahead. So when this game came down to the final drive, it really could've gone either way. Fun finish but somebody had to fuck it up (it was the Panthers this week).
Rams 23-20 Broncos
The Broncos are not bad at home. The Rams are good everywhere. This looks about right.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 8)
Games I watched (some of):
I watched more baseball than football this Saturday. But I caught a little of Michigan over Michigan State (Sparty's D was okay but they got no offense going in this game) and Oklahoma over TCU (felt like OU was gonna score every time the ball was snapped).
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Clemson, (5) LSU, (6) Michigan, (9) Oklahoma, (10) Central Florida, (14) Kentucky, (15) Washington, (18) Penn State, (19) Iowa, (23) Wisconsin
Did not impress
(21) South Florida (I don't know, man, feels like they could've had a more decisive victory hosting UConn; they got the W, but failing to cover against a lightweight conference opponent at home is kinda soft)
Bad beat
(16) North Carolina State (I thought they had a decent shot to make some noise, but Clemson finally busted out their most impressive game of the season, so...uh...not happening for the Wolfpack)
(19) Mississippi State (they weren't gonna win at LSU, you know it, I know it, the American people know it)
(24) Michigan State (frankly, Sparty is overrated at #24 and Michigan has quietly put together a pretty good season so far, this game was about right)
Not so good
(2) Ohio State (yipes! I thought they kinda lucked out against TCU and Penn State, but they got the W's, so you can't front; but, man, getting thumped by Purdue is not good, they can still play spoiler but it's hard to imagine the Buckeyes getting into the playoff with this kind of L on their resume)
(12) Oregon (haven't been impressed with Oregon so far this season, not sure how they got up to #12, but they got pretty well throttled in Pullman; Pac-12, man, it's a blender every year)
(20) Cincinnati (I really thought they'd easily handle Temple, but not so much)
Next week's key matches:
(9) Florida @ (7) Georgia
(18) Iowa @ (17) Penn State
(12) Kentucky @ Missouri
(14) Washington State @ (24) Stanford
I watched more baseball than football this Saturday. But I caught a little of Michigan over Michigan State (Sparty's D was okay but they got no offense going in this game) and Oklahoma over TCU (felt like OU was gonna score every time the ball was snapped).
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Clemson, (5) LSU, (6) Michigan, (9) Oklahoma, (10) Central Florida, (14) Kentucky, (15) Washington, (18) Penn State, (19) Iowa, (23) Wisconsin
Did not impress
(21) South Florida (I don't know, man, feels like they could've had a more decisive victory hosting UConn; they got the W, but failing to cover against a lightweight conference opponent at home is kinda soft)
Bad beat
(16) North Carolina State (I thought they had a decent shot to make some noise, but Clemson finally busted out their most impressive game of the season, so...uh...not happening for the Wolfpack)
(19) Mississippi State (they weren't gonna win at LSU, you know it, I know it, the American people know it)
(24) Michigan State (frankly, Sparty is overrated at #24 and Michigan has quietly put together a pretty good season so far, this game was about right)
Not so good
(2) Ohio State (yipes! I thought they kinda lucked out against TCU and Penn State, but they got the W's, so you can't front; but, man, getting thumped by Purdue is not good, they can still play spoiler but it's hard to imagine the Buckeyes getting into the playoff with this kind of L on their resume)
(12) Oregon (haven't been impressed with Oregon so far this season, not sure how they got up to #12, but they got pretty well throttled in Pullman; Pac-12, man, it's a blender every year)
(20) Cincinnati (I really thought they'd easily handle Temple, but not so much)
Next week's key matches:
(9) Florida @ (7) Georgia
(18) Iowa @ (17) Penn State
(12) Kentucky @ Missouri
(14) Washington State @ (24) Stanford
2018 World Series
I can't help thinking that the Astros were better than the Red Sox but the Red Sox bullpen held up, they got timely hitting and it felt like they got every lucky break and finished off the Astros pretty quick. Likewise, I can't help thinking that the Brewers were better than the Dodgers. But their overuse of the bullpen doomed them once Game Four went to 14 innings (or whatever), you just knew it was over the Brewers right then. It may sound like sour grapes to complain about the winners but 1) I have no rooting interest here (I'm an Indians man, myself) and 2) it's not uncommon for the lesser team to win (check out the World Series from 1987-1997, hard to say the best team won most of those matches).
I think the Red Sox home field advantage will be too much for the Dodgers to keep up with. They both have good lineups, decent starting pitching and so-so bullpens, the only real difference I see is Fenway vs. Dodger Stadium. Fenway is a weird place and it'll be freezing cold there whereas Dodger Stadium is a colossal place where cool breezes will warm the visitors as well as the home team. Otherwise they strike me as pretty similar squads (I think Sox defense and lineup are slightly deeper). I'll take Red Sox in 6.
I think the Red Sox home field advantage will be too much for the Dodgers to keep up with. They both have good lineups, decent starting pitching and so-so bullpens, the only real difference I see is Fenway vs. Dodger Stadium. Fenway is a weird place and it'll be freezing cold there whereas Dodger Stadium is a colossal place where cool breezes will warm the visitors as well as the home team. Otherwise they strike me as pretty similar squads (I think Sox defense and lineup are slightly deeper). I'll take Red Sox in 6.
Monday, October 15, 2018
2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 7)
Games I watched (some of):
(2) Georgia 16-36 (13) LSU
Thought UGA would give them the what-for but, man, they never got any offense going at all. LSU chipped away, chipped away, chipped away and before you knew it, UGA was buried. LSU's season is (and always has been) Alabama, if they get it done, they're back in business. Georgia should still come out of the East, so Alabama will decide their fate, too.
(19) Colorado 20-31 Southern Cal
USC made plays, Colorado just kept spinning their wheels. They both played hard but USC controlled this game from beginning to end.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Ohio State, (5) Notre Dame, (9) Texas, (12) Michigan, (13) LSU, (14) Florida, (22) Texas A&M
Got it done but did not impress
(10) Central Florida (coming from behind to steal one at Memphis? Meh)
(23) South Florida (amazing comeback late to steal a W from mighty Tulsa)
Not so good
(2) Georgia (never got any offense going against LSU, kinda ugly)
(6) West Virginia (Iowa State, man, they got the magic of scaring/beating the ranked squads)
(7) Washington (with Auburn losing, too, UW's hopes have vanished)
(8) Penn State (this surprised me, thought the Lions were gonna win out (thought Sparty sucked))
(15) Wisconsin (not like them to get blown out but they were never in this game)
(16) Miami (Hurricanes are far from their old timey dominant selves)
(19) Colorado (trouble getting the offense going on the road)
(21) Auburn (lost at home to Tennessee? That's not good)
(2) Georgia 16-36 (13) LSU
Thought UGA would give them the what-for but, man, they never got any offense going at all. LSU chipped away, chipped away, chipped away and before you knew it, UGA was buried. LSU's season is (and always has been) Alabama, if they get it done, they're back in business. Georgia should still come out of the East, so Alabama will decide their fate, too.
(19) Colorado 20-31 Southern Cal
USC made plays, Colorado just kept spinning their wheels. They both played hard but USC controlled this game from beginning to end.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Ohio State, (5) Notre Dame, (9) Texas, (12) Michigan, (13) LSU, (14) Florida, (22) Texas A&M
Got it done but did not impress
(10) Central Florida (coming from behind to steal one at Memphis? Meh)
(23) South Florida (amazing comeback late to steal a W from mighty Tulsa)
Not so good
(2) Georgia (never got any offense going against LSU, kinda ugly)
(6) West Virginia (Iowa State, man, they got the magic of scaring/beating the ranked squads)
(7) Washington (with Auburn losing, too, UW's hopes have vanished)
(8) Penn State (this surprised me, thought the Lions were gonna win out (thought Sparty sucked))
(15) Wisconsin (not like them to get blown out but they were never in this game)
(16) Miami (Hurricanes are far from their old timey dominant selves)
(19) Colorado (trouble getting the offense going on the road)
(21) Auburn (lost at home to Tennessee? That's not good)
2018-19 NBA Predictions
Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic (Mavs)
I got a feeling this won't even be close. Dude, the guy can already play, we know that and the fact that multiple teams passed on him in search of "upside" is absurd. The Mavs are a good place for him to be, once he and Smith get a rhythm, he'll be off to the races.
Other candidates: Deandre Ayton (Suns) has looked good in pre-season and since the Suns look pretty terrible to my eye, he'll have plenty of opportunities to shine out. Kevin Knox (Kncks) is gonna be good, he's gonna be fun, he's gonna get plenty of playing time and he'll be in New York, if anyone gets more praise than Doncic, it'll be probably be Knox. Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies) and Wendell Carter (Bulls) should both get plenty of playing time and I expect them to be solid rotation guys right away--which is a good thing--but I don't think it'll be enough to elevate either of them to the top of the class in the 1st year. Harry Giles (King) was the #1 prospect coming out of high school 3 years ago, but an injury-plagues coupla years have dropped him out of the limelight, but considering that the Kings are the Kings, he'll get plenty of chances to shine and I suspect by the end of the year he'll be balling out. Grayson Allen (Jazz) is not the top of his class but Utah is a good spot for him, he'll get time in a system where he can play his game; I can see him having a really good year. Lonnie Walker (Spurs) is, injuries aside, in a good place to learn how the NBA works, I think they'll maximize his athleticism and he'll be an important of the rotation by the end of the year. I got a weird feeling that Jacob Evans (Warriors) is gonna be really good and if that turns out to be the case, I think he'll get playing time and a lot of admirers. And keep an eye on Elie Okobo (Suns), he'll get playing time and he should have plenty of opportunity to establish himself.
MVP: Anthony Davis (Pelicans)
The West will be in flux this year and the Pelicans have the potential to make a nice jump--if Davis shows up and leads the way. I think he will. I think he'll score with efficiency, be a defensive badass and make the kind of plays that drop jaws. And if the Pelicans comfortably glide into the playoffs, that should be enough to earn him serious MVP votes. (Also throw in that the Warriors, Celtics and Raptors have such deep rosters that they won't be absorbing any of those votes)
Other candidates: Lebron James (Lakers) will definitely get attention if he balls out in a Lakers uni the way he did last year in Cleveland and that could definitely happen, but I got a feeling Lebron eases up a bit (also, of course, the Lakers will have ups and downs that taunt the media). Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) is set for a big comeback year on a good team with a deep bench and an adoring crowd, I can absolutely see him winning hearts and minds. Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is all set to have a breakout year especially now that he finally has a coach that will maximize his potential. Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) is the leader of a really good team and he's got nothing better to do than be a badass on the court (but I think he's too young to get the votes). Joel Embiid (Sixers) is exciting and ready to jump and even though this is really Simmons' team, I can see Embiid taking a lot of the credit. Longshots: Kemba Walker (Hornets), Victor Oladipo (Pacers), Damien Lillard (Blazers) are all leaders of their teams and if any of them can drag their teams further up the standings, I can see them getting votes.
Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors)
I was gonna go with Davis here but I gave him MVP, so I think this will be Kawhi's prize. If Kawhi has his regular season, his defense alone will spur (*) the Raptors to a lot of wins, a lot of easy buckets on offense, a point differential that may lead the league. And they'll be fun to watch, they'll be competitive against the best teams and they should crush the shit out of the lesser squads. And Comeback won't really seem appropriate, so voters will be dying to give him this.
Other candidates: Rudy Gobert (Jazz) was, I thought kinda overrated last year but he is great and if he stays healthy he will anchor a really good team on the rise and that will earn him many votes. Paul George (Thunder) will deserve his own accolades after living in Westbrook's shadow and frankly the team is built for him to be the leader on the defensive end. Anthony Davis (Pelicans) will win MVP but if he doesn't, he'll be high over here. Ben Simmons (Sixers), Robert Covington (Sixers), Joel Embiid (Sixers) will anchor potentially the league's best D but they'll take votes from each other so hard to imagine any of them actually winning. Victor Oladipo (Pacers) led the league in Steals last year, I can see him doing it again. Andre Drummond (Pistons) has been overlooked most of his career but if the Pistons can slither into the playoffs (I had 'em 7th in the East), then he'll be deserving of some recognition.
6th Man: Isiah Thomas (Nuggets)
I'm struggling to figure who will dominate off the bench season--and Thomas may well be a starter! But it seems to me if the Nuggets use him correctly, it'll be bringing him late and giving him a green light against everyone else's 2nd string. I also kinda like Julius Randle (Pelicans) for the same reason. And, of course, Lou Williams (Clippers) will get votes, I guarantee.
Most Improved: Brandon Ingram (Lakers)
If Lebron wants it to happen, then this kid will have a monster season and everyone will see it. (That said, I probably would've gone with Dejounte Murray (Spurs) here because he was ready to take over this team but not this year)
Other candidates: Aaron Gordon (Magic) is the best player on a bad team and I can see him being a Fantasy League hoss this season. Jahlil Okafor (Pelicans) was more maligned than need be but it sets a pretty low bar for him if he finds himself off the Pelican bench. Kris Dunn (Bulls) still has, I think, a shot at being really good (though this squad is gonna be a tough one for him to stand out). Dante Exum (Jazz) is, hopefully, going to finally show us what he's got, I suspect he'll be really good off the bench. Dennis Smith (Mavs) should improve as his team improves and the Mavs should be wildly better than last year. Andrew Wiggins (Wolves) looked really good in the first coupla weeks last year, then Jimmy Butler took over and we never saw him again; well, Butler doesn't look to be too much of an impediment this year, now's the time for Wiggins to blow up. Josh Richardson (Heat) has really always been good but I think this year people will finally notice and cement his status as a defensive stopper. Cedi Osman (Cavs) is gonna have plenty of chances to show what he can do, I think he'll be pretty good. Josh Jackson (Suns) has skills but if he can add some scoring to his game, he'll be really good. Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings) is ready to settle into a DPOY-level force for the Kings. John Collins (Hawks) is good and I think he'll get better (though I'm not sure anyone will notice because the Hawks will be very bad).
Coach of the Year: Greg Popovic (Spurs)/Mike Budenholzer (Bucks)
Pop deserves the award pretty much every year but this year, as the new-look Spurs overcome injuries to claw their way into the post-season late (rather than tanking which would be the smart thing to do) and it'll be Pop that takes the lion's share of the credit. As the Bucks cement their place near the top of the East and Giannis becomes a viable MVP candidate, it'll be Coach Bud that gets the cred (and deservedly so).
Executive of the Year: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)/Danny Ainge (Celtics)
Pelinka signed Lebron and you didn't...so....there's that. Ainge has his fingerprints all over the Celtics' roster from brilliant drafts to bold trades to snagging the best coach in all of basketball, as the Celtics climb the standings it'll be Ainge that basks in the glow.
Regular Season:
East/West
Celtics/Warriors
Raptors/Rockets
Bucks/Jazz
Sixers/Thunder
Pacers/Lakers
Wizards/Pelicans
Pistons/Nuggets
Heat/Spurs
Hornets/Blazers
Cavs/Mavs
Bulls/Clippers
Knicks/Wolves
Nets/Grizzlies
Magic/Kings
Hawks/Suns
Playoffs:
Celtics over Heat (5)/Warriors over Spurs (5)
Raptors over Pistons (6)/Rockets over Nuggets (6)
Bucks over Wizards (6)/Jazz over Pelicans (7)
Sixers over Pacers (7)/Lakers over Thunder (7)
Celtics over Sixers (7)/Warriors over Lakers (7)
Raptors over Bucks (7)/Rockets over Jazz (6)
Raptors over Celtics (7)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Warriors over Raptors (5)
There you go, don't even need the season now, really. But I'm glad it's coming just the same.
(*) Heh, you like that?
I got a feeling this won't even be close. Dude, the guy can already play, we know that and the fact that multiple teams passed on him in search of "upside" is absurd. The Mavs are a good place for him to be, once he and Smith get a rhythm, he'll be off to the races.
Other candidates: Deandre Ayton (Suns) has looked good in pre-season and since the Suns look pretty terrible to my eye, he'll have plenty of opportunities to shine out. Kevin Knox (Kncks) is gonna be good, he's gonna be fun, he's gonna get plenty of playing time and he'll be in New York, if anyone gets more praise than Doncic, it'll be probably be Knox. Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies) and Wendell Carter (Bulls) should both get plenty of playing time and I expect them to be solid rotation guys right away--which is a good thing--but I don't think it'll be enough to elevate either of them to the top of the class in the 1st year. Harry Giles (King) was the #1 prospect coming out of high school 3 years ago, but an injury-plagues coupla years have dropped him out of the limelight, but considering that the Kings are the Kings, he'll get plenty of chances to shine and I suspect by the end of the year he'll be balling out. Grayson Allen (Jazz) is not the top of his class but Utah is a good spot for him, he'll get time in a system where he can play his game; I can see him having a really good year. Lonnie Walker (Spurs) is, injuries aside, in a good place to learn how the NBA works, I think they'll maximize his athleticism and he'll be an important of the rotation by the end of the year. I got a weird feeling that Jacob Evans (Warriors) is gonna be really good and if that turns out to be the case, I think he'll get playing time and a lot of admirers. And keep an eye on Elie Okobo (Suns), he'll get playing time and he should have plenty of opportunity to establish himself.
MVP: Anthony Davis (Pelicans)
The West will be in flux this year and the Pelicans have the potential to make a nice jump--if Davis shows up and leads the way. I think he will. I think he'll score with efficiency, be a defensive badass and make the kind of plays that drop jaws. And if the Pelicans comfortably glide into the playoffs, that should be enough to earn him serious MVP votes. (Also throw in that the Warriors, Celtics and Raptors have such deep rosters that they won't be absorbing any of those votes)
Other candidates: Lebron James (Lakers) will definitely get attention if he balls out in a Lakers uni the way he did last year in Cleveland and that could definitely happen, but I got a feeling Lebron eases up a bit (also, of course, the Lakers will have ups and downs that taunt the media). Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) is set for a big comeback year on a good team with a deep bench and an adoring crowd, I can absolutely see him winning hearts and minds. Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is all set to have a breakout year especially now that he finally has a coach that will maximize his potential. Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) is the leader of a really good team and he's got nothing better to do than be a badass on the court (but I think he's too young to get the votes). Joel Embiid (Sixers) is exciting and ready to jump and even though this is really Simmons' team, I can see Embiid taking a lot of the credit. Longshots: Kemba Walker (Hornets), Victor Oladipo (Pacers), Damien Lillard (Blazers) are all leaders of their teams and if any of them can drag their teams further up the standings, I can see them getting votes.
Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors)
I was gonna go with Davis here but I gave him MVP, so I think this will be Kawhi's prize. If Kawhi has his regular season, his defense alone will spur (*) the Raptors to a lot of wins, a lot of easy buckets on offense, a point differential that may lead the league. And they'll be fun to watch, they'll be competitive against the best teams and they should crush the shit out of the lesser squads. And Comeback won't really seem appropriate, so voters will be dying to give him this.
Other candidates: Rudy Gobert (Jazz) was, I thought kinda overrated last year but he is great and if he stays healthy he will anchor a really good team on the rise and that will earn him many votes. Paul George (Thunder) will deserve his own accolades after living in Westbrook's shadow and frankly the team is built for him to be the leader on the defensive end. Anthony Davis (Pelicans) will win MVP but if he doesn't, he'll be high over here. Ben Simmons (Sixers), Robert Covington (Sixers), Joel Embiid (Sixers) will anchor potentially the league's best D but they'll take votes from each other so hard to imagine any of them actually winning. Victor Oladipo (Pacers) led the league in Steals last year, I can see him doing it again. Andre Drummond (Pistons) has been overlooked most of his career but if the Pistons can slither into the playoffs (I had 'em 7th in the East), then he'll be deserving of some recognition.
6th Man: Isiah Thomas (Nuggets)
I'm struggling to figure who will dominate off the bench season--and Thomas may well be a starter! But it seems to me if the Nuggets use him correctly, it'll be bringing him late and giving him a green light against everyone else's 2nd string. I also kinda like Julius Randle (Pelicans) for the same reason. And, of course, Lou Williams (Clippers) will get votes, I guarantee.
Most Improved: Brandon Ingram (Lakers)
If Lebron wants it to happen, then this kid will have a monster season and everyone will see it. (That said, I probably would've gone with Dejounte Murray (Spurs) here because he was ready to take over this team but not this year)
Other candidates: Aaron Gordon (Magic) is the best player on a bad team and I can see him being a Fantasy League hoss this season. Jahlil Okafor (Pelicans) was more maligned than need be but it sets a pretty low bar for him if he finds himself off the Pelican bench. Kris Dunn (Bulls) still has, I think, a shot at being really good (though this squad is gonna be a tough one for him to stand out). Dante Exum (Jazz) is, hopefully, going to finally show us what he's got, I suspect he'll be really good off the bench. Dennis Smith (Mavs) should improve as his team improves and the Mavs should be wildly better than last year. Andrew Wiggins (Wolves) looked really good in the first coupla weeks last year, then Jimmy Butler took over and we never saw him again; well, Butler doesn't look to be too much of an impediment this year, now's the time for Wiggins to blow up. Josh Richardson (Heat) has really always been good but I think this year people will finally notice and cement his status as a defensive stopper. Cedi Osman (Cavs) is gonna have plenty of chances to show what he can do, I think he'll be pretty good. Josh Jackson (Suns) has skills but if he can add some scoring to his game, he'll be really good. Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings) is ready to settle into a DPOY-level force for the Kings. John Collins (Hawks) is good and I think he'll get better (though I'm not sure anyone will notice because the Hawks will be very bad).
Coach of the Year: Greg Popovic (Spurs)/Mike Budenholzer (Bucks)
Pop deserves the award pretty much every year but this year, as the new-look Spurs overcome injuries to claw their way into the post-season late (rather than tanking which would be the smart thing to do) and it'll be Pop that takes the lion's share of the credit. As the Bucks cement their place near the top of the East and Giannis becomes a viable MVP candidate, it'll be Coach Bud that gets the cred (and deservedly so).
Executive of the Year: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)/Danny Ainge (Celtics)
Pelinka signed Lebron and you didn't...so....there's that. Ainge has his fingerprints all over the Celtics' roster from brilliant drafts to bold trades to snagging the best coach in all of basketball, as the Celtics climb the standings it'll be Ainge that basks in the glow.
Regular Season:
East/West
Celtics/Warriors
Raptors/Rockets
Bucks/Jazz
Sixers/Thunder
Pacers/Lakers
Wizards/Pelicans
Pistons/Nuggets
Heat/Spurs
Hornets/Blazers
Cavs/Mavs
Bulls/Clippers
Knicks/Wolves
Nets/Grizzlies
Magic/Kings
Hawks/Suns
Playoffs:
Celtics over Heat (5)/Warriors over Spurs (5)
Raptors over Pistons (6)/Rockets over Nuggets (6)
Bucks over Wizards (6)/Jazz over Pelicans (7)
Sixers over Pacers (7)/Lakers over Thunder (7)
Celtics over Sixers (7)/Warriors over Lakers (7)
Raptors over Bucks (7)/Rockets over Jazz (6)
Raptors over Celtics (7)/Warriors over Rockets (6)
Warriors over Raptors (5)
There you go, don't even need the season now, really. But I'm glad it's coming just the same.
(*) Heh, you like that?
2018-19 NBA Pre-season (Southwest)
Grizzlies
Out: Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans, Ben McLemore, Deyonta Davis, Myke Henry, Jarrell Martin, Kobi Simmons
The Grizzlies have been grasping at straws for at least the last year and a half, so these straws are out to make room for new straws. Chalmers is a reasonable 2nd/3rd string PG, which is not a high priority for the Grizz right now. Evans was pretty good last year but not a piece going forward (though failing to get value for him at the trade deadline was a whiff). They gave McLemore another shot and learned what we all already knew: helluva athlete, not much a baller. Davis is cheap enough to seem right for this roster but doesn't seem like a big loss (at the moment). Ditto with Henry, Martin and Simmons: they were worth a try at their price points, they may well have earned another shot, but they're probably better off getting that shot with another squad.
In: Jaren Jackson, Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Jevon Carter, Garrett Temple, Yuta Watanabe, (rights to Tyler Harvey), Shelvin Mack, Doral Moore, Markel Crawfod, Brandon Goodwin, DJ Stephens
Jackson is going to be just fine in Memphis, he's got grit, he's got grind, I don't like his ROY chances but I do like his chances to be a firm part of this rotation for years to come (that said, passing on Doncic may look like the biggest mistake of all time and frankly I thought Michael Porter was a good fit for the Grizz--and they could've traded back to get him!). I like Anderson, but I don't see him as a game changer for this roster. Casspi's inability to catch on with the Warriors last year is troubling, makes one wonder if he has anything left. Carter's shooting number in NCAA stayed pretty consistent as his MPG increased, considering that the Grizz need all the scoring they can get, I'd say that's a good sign. Temple is a reasonable vet off the bench (and he allowed them to prune their payroll), he'll get minutes but hard to see him making a huge difference. Mack is another nice vet PG off the bench (the new Chalmers), their desperation for PG's last season suggest he'll get regular minutes and he should be fine in that role. Watanabe, Moore, Crawford, Goodwin and Stephens will fight over the down-the-bench roster spots or the G-League spots and at least a few of them won't last through pre-season (though I have no idea which one).
Re-signed: (none)
All in all
Healthy seasons out of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol will vastly improve this team and a healthy season out of Chandler Parsons would be nice, too. That said, it seems like all three are trade bait...except that this is Memphis, who does that 'loyalty' thing that old people assure us used to happen all the time (I'm dubious). So gotta figure those three are gonna get as many minutes as possible. The rest of the rotation will start with Jaren Jackson and Kyle Anderson, then looks like a patchwork quilt of youth (Brooks, Carter--is Ivan Rabb still on the radar? Or Andrew Harrison?) and vets (Mack, Casspi, Temple) and...uh...MarShon Brooks? (Really? Is that a thing?)
If Conley and Gasol are healthy the Grizzlies will be a lot better. Those guys are good to keep them in games and genuinely savvy enough to win them. If they're not healthy...aw, man....they're gonna wish they had Luka Doncic. (MarShon Brooks looks to actually get minutes, remember that) At best they can hang around the edge of the playoff race but the West looks pretty damn strong, the Grizzlies are gonna struggle to be better than the Wolves or Mavs.
Mavs
Out: Doug McDermott, Aaron Harrison, Nerlens Noel, Kyle Collinsworth, Seth Curry, Yogi Farrell, Johnathon Motley, Renaldas Seibutis, Terry Larrier,
They kinda had Seth Curry and Yogi Farrell stolen out from under them but none of these guys were a focus for the Mavs going forward. McDermott is nice but wasn't gonna get the payday he was looking for in Dallas. Nerlens has talent, but he clearly clashed with Coach Carlisle (and everyone else, according to the buzz) and was never gonna work in Dallas. Harrison, Collinsworth, and Motley weren't part of the future. I don't know Seibutis (well, the rights to him) or Larrier.
In: Deandre Jordan, Luka Doncic, Ryan Broekhoff, Kostas Antetokounpo, Jalen Brunson, Ray Spalding, Daryl Macon, (2020 2nd rd pick swap with Rockets), Devin Harris, Donte Ingram, Rashad Vaughn
All hail the Doncic! This is the new bell cow in town, wouldn't be surprised to see him win ROY and this year is designed to get his feet wet, so they can look to add big time free agents next summer. Deandre is finally a Mav, feels like he could be a good foil for Dennis Smith. Harris is back again with the Mavs. As for the rest, whoever can play gets to stay (Brunson should hang, not sure about any of the rest).
Re-signed: Wesley Matthews (player option), Salah Mejri, Dirk Nowitzki, Jalen Jones
With all the injury problems Matthew has endured lately, gotta figure the Mavs would've been fine with him moving on; but a veteran SF to play lockdown (-ish) D is always a good thing, he should fit in nicely next to Deandre. Mejri was kinda of a fan favorite of the last coupla years, one of those big guys that doesn't overwhelm but works hard and isn't bad. Is this Dirk's final season? (I don't think so, I'm thinking 2 more years--yeah, his defense is abysmal but he's still un-guardable). Jones was a not-bad 3-pt shooter last year and that contract is affordable, not a bad move for the Mavs.
All in all
This is Luka's team now. Not soon, not next year--now! That said, he is a rookie and no one really knows how good he'll be right away (I'm saying ROY, but that doesn't mean he carries the Mavs deep into the playoffs). But make no mistake, he is the center of everything this team will do going forward.
PG Smith, SG Matthews, SF Doncic, PF Barnes, C Jordan with Barrea/Harris, Brunson, Jones, Dirk, Finney-Smith, Powell, Mejri. Lot of unknowns here: how will Smith and Luka hit it off? Is Matthews just playing out his contract or is he back to bad-ass defender level? Can Jordan make a difference down low or is he just taking up cap space? Is Barnes actually gonna be as good as he's supposed to be? Was Powell a fluke or can he be a force off the bench? Will Jalen Brunson give good minutes? Is the Barrea/Harris platoon really good enough to keep the 2nd string effective? Do the Mavs even wanna be good this year or are they looking to all that cap space they'll have next summer?
It'll take time for Smith and Luke to work it out, they're both ball-dominant guys and since success is not imminent, hard feelings could develop in the locker room; but they're both good players, they'll figure it out. I have no idea about Matthews, Barnes, Brunson or Powell; if those guys are all good, the Mavs could vastly improve this year. As for the veterans PG's, well, Barrea is still amazingly efficient (once Brandon Knight's price point comes down, this seems like the spot for him, no?) but I suspect this won't last past next summer--and if the Mavs actually think they can win this year, I would expect to see them upgrade ball handlers off the bench first and foremost.
I dunno, man. I can actually see this team being really good but its hard to imagine that'll happen right away. I think they hang around the 8th spot most all year long--ideally, they'd make a late push and then just miss the playoffs, giving them hope for next year (Dirk's last year) on which they could invest that big ol' knot of cap space they'll have. The Mavs will be good again but I'd be surprised if was this season.
Pelicans
Out: Charles Cooke, Demarcus Cousins, Jordan Crawford, Rajon Rondo, Deandre Liggins, Emeka Okafor
Boogie Cousins was having a great season when he got hurt last year...but the team got better after he was out; tough to lose a great player but Boogie takes up a lot of oxygen, I think they're better without him. Rondo, on the other hand, I thought looked as good as he has in years with the Pelicans and I think it's a mistake for him to leave (ehh, I may be wrong about that, though I'd be surprised if he lasted more than one year in LA). Okafor and Liggins are fine practice player, Crawford and Cooke are not big losses.
In: Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Trevon Bluitt, Garlon Green, Kenrich Williams, Troy Williams, Jahlil Okafor, Darius Morris, Jarrett Jack, Brandon McCoy
Payton is a bit frustrating as an old timey pass-first PG but I think there's enough scoring around him to put him in the Rondo role. Randle, too, is frustrating because of his rather unorthodox style (check him out: he's a lefty that refuses to play like a lefty), but his fearlessness is kinda joyous to watch and I think he'll fit in just fine in this rotation. I liked Bluitt in NCAA, a combo guard that looks to score as well as pass, I do not if he'll make it in the League but he's worth a shot. Hey, man, I thought the criticism of Okafor was wildly overblown, kinda soft on D but I think he can be a top flight scorer (I'd aim for him as 6th man here). Jarret Jack....damn, that dude is still around....all right. I don't know Green, Williams, Williams, Morris or McCoy.
Re-signed: Ian Clark
His numbers kinda dropped off last year but the contract is reasonable (I might've preferred a run at Patrick McCaw instead, but okay).
All in all
They blasted the Blazers in the playoffs last year--looked poised to give the Warriors a run (uh, didn't happen). I think they can do that again though with Lakers, Mavs, Grizzlies and Nuggets set to be better next year, there's not much room for the Pelicans, so they better hit the ground running.
PG Holiday, SG Moore, SF Mirotic, PF Okafor, C Davis with Payton/Jackson, Clark/Jack, Miller/Hill, Randle, Ajinca. It'd be nice if Diallo takes a step forward or if Troy Williams gives a little more than expected. That's a nice team, not a great one, and it's up to Anthony Davis to be an MVP to make this work. If Davis is the best he can be and Okafor and Randle have something like a renaissance then the Pelicans can maybe get up to 4th but I think fighting for 8th is probably more likely.
Rockets
Out: Joe Johnson, Luc Mbah a Moute, Tarik Black, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Jackson, Markel Brown, Chinanu Onuaku, Ryan Anderson, RJ Hunter
Ariza did an awful lot for this team over the last few years but I don't think he's irreplaceable. But I found Johnson, Mbah a Moute, and Anderson were more overpaid than useful. Black, Brown, Onuaku and Hunter were youngsters that didn't find much run in Houston because this is a roster based on vets not youngsters.
In: Gary Clark, (rights to Vince Edwards), Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis, Isaih Hartenstein, Carmelo Anthony, (rights to Maarty Leunen), Marquesse Chriss, Brandon Knight, Bruno Caboclo
Ennis is a good pick up (and the potential replacement for Ariza) and I still like Knight, I think he can maximize their 2nd string. I'm still not a fan of Carmelo and while the price tag is right, we'll see if his game complements the vibe. MCW is a reasonable ball handler but not much of a scorer (I guess he could be paired with Knight off the bench). The brass seems to love Hartenstein and if he can give energy off the bench, that'd be great. Personally I was never much of a fan of Chriss (what is his game? What does he do?) but getting him a a throw-in could turn out to be a masterstroke for this roster. Caboclo, too, might be nothing but maybe he finally he hits his stride. Edwards and Clark may look like 'youth' but 'roster-filler' is probably more accurate.
Re-signed: (Coach D'antoni extended), Gerald Green (1yr/$2.4m), Chris Paul (4yr/$158.7), Clint Capela (5yr/$90m)
D'antoni has served them well so far, seems like a good call to pay the man. I thought Green was surprisingly effective for them in the post-season and that is a very reasonable deal. CP, on the other hand...I dunno, man...he's still good...but 4 years? At that price? This might be the deal that buries them (though letting him go would not have served them well either). Capela dangled most of the summer but they needed him back and they got him.
All in all
James Harden's Barry Bonds-like efficiency is what makes the Rockets a fearsome team. Chris Paul adds to that and the proper use of Clint Capela does, too. After that they're just another squad. So while I think they can win a ton of regular season games, I'm still dubious of their ability to outduel the Warriors (and maybe even the Lakers, who will be featuring a pretty efficient guy themselves). I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 1st in the West, but I always surprised to see them get bounced in the 2nd round of the playoffs. We'll see.
Spurs
Out: Joffrey Lauvergne, Matt Costello, Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Darrun Hilliard, Manu Ginobli,
Man, no Manu, no Parker, no Kawhi, not even Kyle Anderson or Danny Green! Massive turnover for the Spurs this year, we're gonna find out if that Popovic guy can actually coach, I guess.
In: Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker, Dante Cunningham, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poetl, (2019 Raptors 1st rd pick), Quincy Pondexter, Chimizie Metu, Drew Eubanks, Jarron Blossongame, Nick Johnson, Okaro White
Belinelli is back for his 2nd tour with the Spurs, he'll give them wing scoring off the bench. Walker looks to be a defensive specialist, which should suit Pop's style and get him regular minutes off the bench. Cunningham and Pondexter are a pair 3-and-D vets off the bench. DeRozan is now the man, how he pairs with Aldridge will determine how far the Spurs go this season. Metu had decent numbers at Southern Cal, seems like he'll fall in line behind Pau. Blossongame, Johnson and White were all guys that had draft buzz but fell, seems like exactly what the Spurs are looking for.
Re-signed: Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Rudy Gay, Dejounte Murray (team option), Jakob Poetl (team option), Derrick White (team option)
I thought Gay was gonna bail (wouldn't the Lakers rather have him than, say, Lance Stephenson or JaVale McGee?), but here he is, ready to shore up the bench again. I like Forbes and Bertans, they work hard and do the little things the Spurs like. Picking up the options on Murray, White and Poetl were positive moves, I'd say, good to go ahead and give the confidence vote to the rank and file.
All in all
The Spurs are brand new now and yet strangely similar to last season--but probably better. (Hmmm, that doesn't seem right, does it?) I was ready to predict a Renaissance...but then Murray blew out his knee and, man, that throws a real wrench in their rotation. He was set to take off but even if he was just average that would've been better than what awaits without him.
Starting lineup: PG Mills, SG DeRozan, SF Gay, PF Gasol, C Aldridge with Forbes, Walker, Belinelli, Pondexter, Cunningham, Poetl, Bertans off the bench (with any growth out of Blossongame and Metu being a bonus). That's not bad. This team has been seemingly steadily declining in talent but still manages to breeze into the playoffs every year because they get such good efficiency from the entire roster. And I was expecting that to continue this season. That said, I still like the Spurs to make the playoffs, coming in with a newfound underdog swagger (though I don't see them giving the Warriors much worry in the 1st round).
Out: Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans, Ben McLemore, Deyonta Davis, Myke Henry, Jarrell Martin, Kobi Simmons
The Grizzlies have been grasping at straws for at least the last year and a half, so these straws are out to make room for new straws. Chalmers is a reasonable 2nd/3rd string PG, which is not a high priority for the Grizz right now. Evans was pretty good last year but not a piece going forward (though failing to get value for him at the trade deadline was a whiff). They gave McLemore another shot and learned what we all already knew: helluva athlete, not much a baller. Davis is cheap enough to seem right for this roster but doesn't seem like a big loss (at the moment). Ditto with Henry, Martin and Simmons: they were worth a try at their price points, they may well have earned another shot, but they're probably better off getting that shot with another squad.
In: Jaren Jackson, Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Jevon Carter, Garrett Temple, Yuta Watanabe, (rights to Tyler Harvey), Shelvin Mack, Doral Moore, Markel Crawfod, Brandon Goodwin, DJ Stephens
Jackson is going to be just fine in Memphis, he's got grit, he's got grind, I don't like his ROY chances but I do like his chances to be a firm part of this rotation for years to come (that said, passing on Doncic may look like the biggest mistake of all time and frankly I thought Michael Porter was a good fit for the Grizz--and they could've traded back to get him!). I like Anderson, but I don't see him as a game changer for this roster. Casspi's inability to catch on with the Warriors last year is troubling, makes one wonder if he has anything left. Carter's shooting number in NCAA stayed pretty consistent as his MPG increased, considering that the Grizz need all the scoring they can get, I'd say that's a good sign. Temple is a reasonable vet off the bench (and he allowed them to prune their payroll), he'll get minutes but hard to see him making a huge difference. Mack is another nice vet PG off the bench (the new Chalmers), their desperation for PG's last season suggest he'll get regular minutes and he should be fine in that role. Watanabe, Moore, Crawford, Goodwin and Stephens will fight over the down-the-bench roster spots or the G-League spots and at least a few of them won't last through pre-season (though I have no idea which one).
Re-signed: (none)
All in all
Healthy seasons out of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol will vastly improve this team and a healthy season out of Chandler Parsons would be nice, too. That said, it seems like all three are trade bait...except that this is Memphis, who does that 'loyalty' thing that old people assure us used to happen all the time (I'm dubious). So gotta figure those three are gonna get as many minutes as possible. The rest of the rotation will start with Jaren Jackson and Kyle Anderson, then looks like a patchwork quilt of youth (Brooks, Carter--is Ivan Rabb still on the radar? Or Andrew Harrison?) and vets (Mack, Casspi, Temple) and...uh...MarShon Brooks? (Really? Is that a thing?)
If Conley and Gasol are healthy the Grizzlies will be a lot better. Those guys are good to keep them in games and genuinely savvy enough to win them. If they're not healthy...aw, man....they're gonna wish they had Luka Doncic. (MarShon Brooks looks to actually get minutes, remember that) At best they can hang around the edge of the playoff race but the West looks pretty damn strong, the Grizzlies are gonna struggle to be better than the Wolves or Mavs.
Mavs
Out: Doug McDermott, Aaron Harrison, Nerlens Noel, Kyle Collinsworth, Seth Curry, Yogi Farrell, Johnathon Motley, Renaldas Seibutis, Terry Larrier,
They kinda had Seth Curry and Yogi Farrell stolen out from under them but none of these guys were a focus for the Mavs going forward. McDermott is nice but wasn't gonna get the payday he was looking for in Dallas. Nerlens has talent, but he clearly clashed with Coach Carlisle (and everyone else, according to the buzz) and was never gonna work in Dallas. Harrison, Collinsworth, and Motley weren't part of the future. I don't know Seibutis (well, the rights to him) or Larrier.
In: Deandre Jordan, Luka Doncic, Ryan Broekhoff, Kostas Antetokounpo, Jalen Brunson, Ray Spalding, Daryl Macon, (2020 2nd rd pick swap with Rockets), Devin Harris, Donte Ingram, Rashad Vaughn
All hail the Doncic! This is the new bell cow in town, wouldn't be surprised to see him win ROY and this year is designed to get his feet wet, so they can look to add big time free agents next summer. Deandre is finally a Mav, feels like he could be a good foil for Dennis Smith. Harris is back again with the Mavs. As for the rest, whoever can play gets to stay (Brunson should hang, not sure about any of the rest).
Re-signed: Wesley Matthews (player option), Salah Mejri, Dirk Nowitzki, Jalen Jones
With all the injury problems Matthew has endured lately, gotta figure the Mavs would've been fine with him moving on; but a veteran SF to play lockdown (-ish) D is always a good thing, he should fit in nicely next to Deandre. Mejri was kinda of a fan favorite of the last coupla years, one of those big guys that doesn't overwhelm but works hard and isn't bad. Is this Dirk's final season? (I don't think so, I'm thinking 2 more years--yeah, his defense is abysmal but he's still un-guardable). Jones was a not-bad 3-pt shooter last year and that contract is affordable, not a bad move for the Mavs.
All in all
This is Luka's team now. Not soon, not next year--now! That said, he is a rookie and no one really knows how good he'll be right away (I'm saying ROY, but that doesn't mean he carries the Mavs deep into the playoffs). But make no mistake, he is the center of everything this team will do going forward.
PG Smith, SG Matthews, SF Doncic, PF Barnes, C Jordan with Barrea/Harris, Brunson, Jones, Dirk, Finney-Smith, Powell, Mejri. Lot of unknowns here: how will Smith and Luka hit it off? Is Matthews just playing out his contract or is he back to bad-ass defender level? Can Jordan make a difference down low or is he just taking up cap space? Is Barnes actually gonna be as good as he's supposed to be? Was Powell a fluke or can he be a force off the bench? Will Jalen Brunson give good minutes? Is the Barrea/Harris platoon really good enough to keep the 2nd string effective? Do the Mavs even wanna be good this year or are they looking to all that cap space they'll have next summer?
It'll take time for Smith and Luke to work it out, they're both ball-dominant guys and since success is not imminent, hard feelings could develop in the locker room; but they're both good players, they'll figure it out. I have no idea about Matthews, Barnes, Brunson or Powell; if those guys are all good, the Mavs could vastly improve this year. As for the veterans PG's, well, Barrea is still amazingly efficient (once Brandon Knight's price point comes down, this seems like the spot for him, no?) but I suspect this won't last past next summer--and if the Mavs actually think they can win this year, I would expect to see them upgrade ball handlers off the bench first and foremost.
I dunno, man. I can actually see this team being really good but its hard to imagine that'll happen right away. I think they hang around the 8th spot most all year long--ideally, they'd make a late push and then just miss the playoffs, giving them hope for next year (Dirk's last year) on which they could invest that big ol' knot of cap space they'll have. The Mavs will be good again but I'd be surprised if was this season.
Pelicans
Out: Charles Cooke, Demarcus Cousins, Jordan Crawford, Rajon Rondo, Deandre Liggins, Emeka Okafor
Boogie Cousins was having a great season when he got hurt last year...but the team got better after he was out; tough to lose a great player but Boogie takes up a lot of oxygen, I think they're better without him. Rondo, on the other hand, I thought looked as good as he has in years with the Pelicans and I think it's a mistake for him to leave (ehh, I may be wrong about that, though I'd be surprised if he lasted more than one year in LA). Okafor and Liggins are fine practice player, Crawford and Cooke are not big losses.
In: Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Trevon Bluitt, Garlon Green, Kenrich Williams, Troy Williams, Jahlil Okafor, Darius Morris, Jarrett Jack, Brandon McCoy
Payton is a bit frustrating as an old timey pass-first PG but I think there's enough scoring around him to put him in the Rondo role. Randle, too, is frustrating because of his rather unorthodox style (check him out: he's a lefty that refuses to play like a lefty), but his fearlessness is kinda joyous to watch and I think he'll fit in just fine in this rotation. I liked Bluitt in NCAA, a combo guard that looks to score as well as pass, I do not if he'll make it in the League but he's worth a shot. Hey, man, I thought the criticism of Okafor was wildly overblown, kinda soft on D but I think he can be a top flight scorer (I'd aim for him as 6th man here). Jarret Jack....damn, that dude is still around....all right. I don't know Green, Williams, Williams, Morris or McCoy.
Re-signed: Ian Clark
His numbers kinda dropped off last year but the contract is reasonable (I might've preferred a run at Patrick McCaw instead, but okay).
All in all
They blasted the Blazers in the playoffs last year--looked poised to give the Warriors a run (uh, didn't happen). I think they can do that again though with Lakers, Mavs, Grizzlies and Nuggets set to be better next year, there's not much room for the Pelicans, so they better hit the ground running.
PG Holiday, SG Moore, SF Mirotic, PF Okafor, C Davis with Payton/Jackson, Clark/Jack, Miller/Hill, Randle, Ajinca. It'd be nice if Diallo takes a step forward or if Troy Williams gives a little more than expected. That's a nice team, not a great one, and it's up to Anthony Davis to be an MVP to make this work. If Davis is the best he can be and Okafor and Randle have something like a renaissance then the Pelicans can maybe get up to 4th but I think fighting for 8th is probably more likely.
Rockets
Out: Joe Johnson, Luc Mbah a Moute, Tarik Black, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Jackson, Markel Brown, Chinanu Onuaku, Ryan Anderson, RJ Hunter
Ariza did an awful lot for this team over the last few years but I don't think he's irreplaceable. But I found Johnson, Mbah a Moute, and Anderson were more overpaid than useful. Black, Brown, Onuaku and Hunter were youngsters that didn't find much run in Houston because this is a roster based on vets not youngsters.
In: Gary Clark, (rights to Vince Edwards), Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis, Isaih Hartenstein, Carmelo Anthony, (rights to Maarty Leunen), Marquesse Chriss, Brandon Knight, Bruno Caboclo
Ennis is a good pick up (and the potential replacement for Ariza) and I still like Knight, I think he can maximize their 2nd string. I'm still not a fan of Carmelo and while the price tag is right, we'll see if his game complements the vibe. MCW is a reasonable ball handler but not much of a scorer (I guess he could be paired with Knight off the bench). The brass seems to love Hartenstein and if he can give energy off the bench, that'd be great. Personally I was never much of a fan of Chriss (what is his game? What does he do?) but getting him a a throw-in could turn out to be a masterstroke for this roster. Caboclo, too, might be nothing but maybe he finally he hits his stride. Edwards and Clark may look like 'youth' but 'roster-filler' is probably more accurate.
Re-signed: (Coach D'antoni extended), Gerald Green (1yr/$2.4m), Chris Paul (4yr/$158.7), Clint Capela (5yr/$90m)
D'antoni has served them well so far, seems like a good call to pay the man. I thought Green was surprisingly effective for them in the post-season and that is a very reasonable deal. CP, on the other hand...I dunno, man...he's still good...but 4 years? At that price? This might be the deal that buries them (though letting him go would not have served them well either). Capela dangled most of the summer but they needed him back and they got him.
All in all
James Harden's Barry Bonds-like efficiency is what makes the Rockets a fearsome team. Chris Paul adds to that and the proper use of Clint Capela does, too. After that they're just another squad. So while I think they can win a ton of regular season games, I'm still dubious of their ability to outduel the Warriors (and maybe even the Lakers, who will be featuring a pretty efficient guy themselves). I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 1st in the West, but I always surprised to see them get bounced in the 2nd round of the playoffs. We'll see.
Spurs
Out: Joffrey Lauvergne, Matt Costello, Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Darrun Hilliard, Manu Ginobli,
Man, no Manu, no Parker, no Kawhi, not even Kyle Anderson or Danny Green! Massive turnover for the Spurs this year, we're gonna find out if that Popovic guy can actually coach, I guess.
In: Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker, Dante Cunningham, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poetl, (2019 Raptors 1st rd pick), Quincy Pondexter, Chimizie Metu, Drew Eubanks, Jarron Blossongame, Nick Johnson, Okaro White
Belinelli is back for his 2nd tour with the Spurs, he'll give them wing scoring off the bench. Walker looks to be a defensive specialist, which should suit Pop's style and get him regular minutes off the bench. Cunningham and Pondexter are a pair 3-and-D vets off the bench. DeRozan is now the man, how he pairs with Aldridge will determine how far the Spurs go this season. Metu had decent numbers at Southern Cal, seems like he'll fall in line behind Pau. Blossongame, Johnson and White were all guys that had draft buzz but fell, seems like exactly what the Spurs are looking for.
Re-signed: Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Rudy Gay, Dejounte Murray (team option), Jakob Poetl (team option), Derrick White (team option)
I thought Gay was gonna bail (wouldn't the Lakers rather have him than, say, Lance Stephenson or JaVale McGee?), but here he is, ready to shore up the bench again. I like Forbes and Bertans, they work hard and do the little things the Spurs like. Picking up the options on Murray, White and Poetl were positive moves, I'd say, good to go ahead and give the confidence vote to the rank and file.
All in all
The Spurs are brand new now and yet strangely similar to last season--but probably better. (Hmmm, that doesn't seem right, does it?) I was ready to predict a Renaissance...but then Murray blew out his knee and, man, that throws a real wrench in their rotation. He was set to take off but even if he was just average that would've been better than what awaits without him.
Starting lineup: PG Mills, SG DeRozan, SF Gay, PF Gasol, C Aldridge with Forbes, Walker, Belinelli, Pondexter, Cunningham, Poetl, Bertans off the bench (with any growth out of Blossongame and Metu being a bonus). That's not bad. This team has been seemingly steadily declining in talent but still manages to breeze into the playoffs every year because they get such good efficiency from the entire roster. And I was expecting that to continue this season. That said, I still like the Spurs to make the playoffs, coming in with a newfound underdog swagger (though I don't see them giving the Warriors much worry in the 1st round).
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