2023-24 NBA Playoffs (4 games in)

East

Heat 1-3 Celtics

After taking the night off in Game Two, the Celtics are back on track and making it clear that they are vastly more talented than the Heat. Porzingis left Game Four, will it become a problem? (Well, not for this series, but the Celtics need KP to reach their peak) Even without Porzingis, this should be over in five. 

Sixers 1-3 Knicks

The Sixers are such an inconsistent squad, it's hard to see how they have any kind of shot of winning 3 straight. Buddy Hield is completely out of the rotation, (oh--I forgot Robert Covington was even on the Sixers!), Tobias Harris is just inert, Joel Embiid is occasionally feisty and brilliant but more often just hobbled and ineffective, Kyle Lowry is doing yeoman's work (but not much more than that) and this team is pretty much just Tyrese Maxey by himself. The Knicks are rounding into shape (and definitely keeping an eye on that Porzinigis injury), I think this will be over in Game Five. 

Pacers 3-1 Bucks

If you needed any reminder of how awesome Giannis is just remember that if he were in the lineup, the Bucks would be a for-real contender in the East but without him, the Bucks kinda stink. There is no depth, no defense, no reliable scoring outside of Middleton--good god, they've even had to break the emergency glass on Danilo Galinari, a move that does not inspire confidence. Unless Damian Lillard returns, the Bucks have zero shot at winning this series (and even if he does return, they have almost zero shot in this series). The Pacers aren't really doing anything amazing, the Bucks are just that bad. I give the Bucks a puncher's chance in Game Five, but this should be wrapped in six. 

Magic 2-2 Cavs

This one is going seven games and I like the home team to win all 7. In the playoffs, the supporting cast shines in home games (and disappears on the road) and both of these teams need the full weight of their depth to get ahead, so I'm favoring the home teams and sticking with the Cavs in 7.

West

Pelicans 0-4 Thunder

The Pelicans shot their wad in Game One, the Thunder survived and then mushed the Pels like a bug for the next three games. If the Pelicans had Zion, this would've been a bit more of a challenge but without him, the Thunder rather easily outscored them. Now the Thunder get a break while the Mavs and Clippers wear each other out (I think Thunder fans can go ahead and buy their Conference Final tickets).

Lakers 1-4 Nuggets

Yeah, I'm not shocked the Lakers were able to hold on to Game Four, the Nuggets had a pretty terrible shooting night--and still almost came back to win it. And, yeah, I'm not shocked that in two of the four wins the Nuggets needed the final possession  to seal the victory. The Lakers played the Nuggets close last year and played them close again this year. But the Nuggets are too good, man, and though the length of the Lakers was problematic for them, their scoring and overall offensive efficiency is just too much for the Lakers to hang with. That said, the Wolves are going to be a problem for the Nuggets....

Suns 0-4 Wolves

The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season, including two wins in the last coupla weeks and this felt like it was going to be a dog fight of a series. But....nah, not so much. The Suns are basically just Booker and Durant (just like last year) and without Grayson Allen (yeah, the Suns were toast without Grayson Allen?!??), there just wasn't enough scoring to hang with the Wolves. The Wolves are frankly a fucked-up Frankenstein monster squad, but when they pull it together, they are the only team that can truly hang with the Nuggets and Celtics. They've got long arms, a deep bench, and though the scoring sometimes disappears for no reason, they generally have a good offense, too. They were gonna have to beat the Nuggets at some point, now is the time. 

Mavs 2-2 Clippers

Neither of these teams are good enough to win, they only win when the other team just doesn't show up. The Mavs were utterly useless in Game One, the Clippers utterly useless in Game Three. The Clippers should've won Game Two but fumbled it away, the Clippers had a massive lead early in Game Four and almost gave that away. It's like both of these teams are just waiting to lose and hoping the other team loses first. I still have this going 7 games but increasingly I think the winner will likely get smoked by OKC--a team that knows who they are and will have an extra 5 days or so to prepare for the next round. 

2024 Champions League (Quarterfinals (2nd Leg))

Borussia Dortmund 4-2 (agg 5-4) Atletico Madrid

Great game! Thought Atletico came out flat, Dortmund pretty well dominated the 1st half, up 2-0 at halftime. Then Atletico came alive, netted two quick goals to steal back the overall lead and seemed like they were going to ride out the listless Dortmund side. Then it was Dortmund's turn to get hot and they netted two late goals to steal the victory. Tons of action, lots of sloppiness in the goalie boxes, chippy fouls, pissed off ref and a home crowd going wild by the end. Fun ride of a game, not sure how much further Dortmund can go, but they were the better side overall here. There's been a lot of scoring so far this year, if Dortmund can keep it going, they can hang with anyone. 

Barcelona 1-3 (agg 3-4) Paris St. Germaine

Barca got the early goal, felt like they were on their way, but PSG's dominance in the 2nd half was much too much for Barca to hang with. Barca just never got anything going after that early goal (Lewandowski is going to waste in Barcelona). PSG feels like the best team left to me. 

Bayern Munich 1-0 (agg 3-2) Arsenal

Never felt like either team controlled the attack, each team had moments but for the most part the defenses stood up strong. One moment of brilliance (Guerrero searching swing pass into the box, Kimmich steps into the empty space for the perfect header) and that was about it. Not a boring match but neither side exhibited anything like dominance. So does Bayern have their shit together? Well, most teams would be happy to be in the Champions League semifinal, but this squad still feels shell shocked from their early season woes. 

Manchester City 1-1 (agg 3-4 (PKs)) Real Madrid

Feel like I gotta start out by saying it felt to me like Man City was the best team in this year's tourney.  Yeah "was" as in, they're no longer around. The opening of the game was some serious chess match stuff where it felt like Man City wanted to suck Real into pressing on defense, but Real held their shape and sagged to prevent any kind of deep penetration. Real was able to create the slightest ripple in Man City's back line and scored an early goal. But Man City wasn't going away, so not a shock that they were able to tie it up and send this on in to penalty kicks. Shame to lose Man City (the Stefon Edberg of soccer), but Real Madrid is rounding into shape, gonna be a tough out going forward.

Semifinal

I gotta go with Real Madrid over Bayern and PSG over Dortmund. The German sides have done well to get here, but I think this is where it ends for both of them.

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2 games in)

East

1: Heat 94-114 Celtics

2: Heat 111-101 Celtics

Game One....(yawn)....was over before I turned it on, the score only looks close because the Celtics completely stopped playing with, like, 10 mins left. Game Two was maybe the most shocking result of the season. But let's dig into the numbers: the Heat had their best shooting game of the entire season while for the Celtics, Porzingis totally sucked and Payton Pritchard in 20 minutes managed to do...absolutely nothing. And while actually Tatum and Brown were both pretty good in Game Two, the rest of the squad just couldn't get buckets and that's not like this year's Celtics. So was Game Two a fluke or are the Celtics ready to fold? Yeah....I'm going with "fluke". Tyler Herro hadn't had a good shooting night in (seems like) months and as much as I love Bam Adebayo, I think his dominance of Porzingis was likely just a good night that won't be repeated. I had Celtics in 5, which I figured was too much after Game One, but after Game Two I'd say the Celtics are back on the gentleman's sweep path because I fully expect them  to outplay the Heat in the next three games. 

1: Sixers 104-111 Knicks

2: Sixers 101-104 Knicks

Game One was a hard fought contest but the Knicks were the better team. Game Two was hard fought, too, and though history may well record that the Knicks got lucky down the stretch, I'd say it isn't that simple. Frankly the Knicks should've won and had the game in hand in the 4th quarter, until the Sixers rode a nice stretch to a lead in the final minute, which the Knicks overcame by making the hustle plays (hat tip to Josh Hart) and making the big shots (hat tip to Donte DiVincenzo). So even though MVP candidate Jalen Brunson looks completely fustigated by Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers just don't have enough to compete. The overly maligned Tobias Harris has been awful, the once-promising Buddy Hield just doesn't look like he wants to play, Nicolaus Batum already had an out-of-body game in the play-in (are you really expecting him to have another one of those this year?) and Joel Embiid is fighting too many injuries to be reliable (though he's clearly working his ass off). Maxey has been great for the Sixers but he's pretty much the only one and I don't see how he can do it all himself. This series will still produce tough contests but I like the Knicks to take one of the next two games and have a good shot at wrapping this up in 5 games. 

1: Pacers 94-109 Bucks

2: Pacers 125-108 Bucks

Okay, it is officially panic time in Milwaukee. The Bucks have been lackluster all year (hmmmm, well, really only since they mutinied against Coach Griffin to bring in Coach Doc) and with Giannis nursing a calf injury (I thought that was strictly a FIFA injury), the Bucks had better get their shit together pronto if they expect to get past Indy. That said, the Bucks looked pretty dominant in Game One and then utterly incapable in Game Two, so which is it? For the Pacers, really only Pascal Siakim is balling (he's killing the Bucks), but so far they're seemingly steady enough to outlast the schizo Bucks. If the Bucks can last til Game Seven, then hopefully Giannis can come back and make a difference--that's their only hope. I think the listing Bucks can stay even with the Pacers for a while, though they better get their offense in tune if they're going to outscore Siakim, so I will stick with the Bucks in 7 for now (but, man.....they gotta stretch this series to even have a prayer). 

1: Magic 83-97 Cavs

2: Magic 86-96 Cavs

Felt like two fairly evenly matched teams going into the series but the Cavs are clearly just a more reliable offense. The Magic are nice but just don't have the firepower to keep up. Again, I expect the Cavs to take one of the next two games and wrap this up in 5. 

West

1: Pelicans 92-94 Thunder

2: Pelicans 92-124 Thunder

The Pelicans kinda scared the Thunder in Game One but the Thunder made the plays late to steal the W. In Game Two, the Thunder moved the ball well, got buckets and rather easily outpaced the Pelicans. I think the Pelicans still present some matchup problems (Jonas "FIBA" Valenciunas!) and should steal a game or two, but they don't have the scoring depth (w/out Zion) to hang for long. The Thunder are the better team and should finish this in 5 (or maybe 6) games. 

1: Lakers 103-114 Nuggets

2: Lakers 99-101 Nuggets

Oh, man, if the Lakers couldn't pull out Game Two, then I just don't see how they win at all. The Lakers were pretty great for about three quarters, but the Nuggets took over in the 4th and Jamal Murray finished the easy-as-you-please buzzer beater to snatch the commanding lead. So far, Anthony Davis has played pretty great, Lebron started great in the first game and finished great in the second, and the rest of the supporting cast has been pretty good (Hachimura not so much, D'Angelo Russell kinda sucked in Game One but was kinda great in Game Two), but it just doesn't matter. Jokic is so damn good and the rest of the cast knows exactly what they're supposed to do and clearly the defending champs are gonna be a tough out. Feels like another sweep is coming, though I can see the Lakers stealing a home game, I guess (but I'd be kinda shocked if this goes more than five games). 

1: Suns 95-120 Wolves

2: Suns 93-105 Wolves

The Sun have no chance. Their only hope was to simply outscore the neophyte Wolves but it ain't happening. The Wolves defense is too much and the offense is good enough to get past the Suns (even if Anthony Edwards struggles as he has so far). If the Suns offense was as good as they think it is, they'd be tough to beat but it isn't and the D isn't noteworthy at all. This looked to me like the classic home-team-wins-all-games kinda series--and it still could be--but I don't see it any more. The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season but that feels like a rope-a-dope now, the Suns are struggling to even be in these games now. The Wolves will take one of these next two games in Phoenix and finish it in 5. 

1: Mavs 97-109 Clippers

2: Mavs 96-93 Clippers

The Mavs simply did not show up in Game One but turned it around nicely in Game Two (especially in the 2nd half). I can't help thinking that the Clippers really are the better team but they're sloppy and Kawhi isn't quite ready to get wins. This should go 7 games, which gives Kawhi more time to play himself into shape. Peak Clippers is better than peak Mavs but the Mavs feel more likely to get closer to their peak than the Clippers; but if the Clippers can keep the series alive, then I think they have the better chance of finding the magic at the bottom of their bag. I initially had the Mavs in 7 but I think I like the Clippers to catch up and over take the Mavs by Game Seven (but if the Clippers don't win at least one of the next two games, this might be done a lot quicker). 

2023-24 NBA (End of season awards)

MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Gotta do it, man, he's just been so great this year leading the youngest team to ever finish 1st in the West. Head-to-head with Jokic, their numbers are comparable; Jokic kills Shai on Rebounds but Shai has more FTA and a better asst:to and, again, he finished first in the West, so....Shai had a great year, now time to do it in the post-season.

Runners-up: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Jalen Brunson (Knicks)

Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)

Wemby led all rookies in FG, FGA, FT, FTA, offensive and defensive and total rebounds, steals, blocks (led the league--BY A MILE!), and points (also Turnovers, though 3rd in Assists). If Wemby never got any better than this, he'd still be in all-star contention every year but this is just the start for this guy. I thought that he would put up nice stats (he did better than that) on a shitty team (well, yeah) and he'd probably get shut down by season's end (nah, he did this in the next to last game of the season--a game the Nuggets actually needed to win!) and that we'd all look back and see that Holmgren was contributing as a rookie to a really good team (#1 in the West) and ultimately that would be more impressive to voters. Hey, man, don't wanna knock Chet--he was great--but Wemby did it all and looked better doing it. To me, ROY is a forward-looking award, namely who has the brightest future and if you want to argue that Chet contributing right away is better than putting up stats on a team not even trying to win, well, okay, that is a worthwhile data point in Chet's favor. But that's the only one. This is Wemby's league now, doubt that at your peril! Who else in the NBA does this?

Runner-ups: Chet Holmgren (Thunder), Brandon Miller (Hornets) (the top 3 is clear, the next 8-10 are purely subjective)

Defensive Player of the Year

Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Impressive season from Davis, wasn't sure he'd have another one, but he was healthier than he's been in his Laker tenure and played a ton of minutes. Only guy in the top 20 in Steals and Blocks (though still well behind rookie Wemby in Steals + Blocks) and 3rd overall in defensive rebounds. Throw in a positive assist:turnover rate and being top ten in free throw attempts and it is clear that he cleaned up on the defensive end and was still a load for his opponents on the offensive end. Davis had a great season and though I've predicted him to win DPOY for many years now, I believe this is the first time I ever thought he was truly worthy. 

Runner-ups: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), Rudy Gobert (Wolves), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)

6th Man

Bogdan Bogdanovich (Hawks)

I thought Bogie had the best all-around numbers. Word is the Hawks will be going through a tumultuous off-season (either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray has to go), I'll be curious to see if anyone makes a big balls offer for this guy. 

Runner-ups: Bobby Portis (Bucks), Naz Reid (Wolves), Keldon Johnson (Spurs), Malik Monk (Kings)

Coach of the Year

Mark Daigneault (Thunder)

The Thunder became the youngest team to ever finish #1 in the West and obviously Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main driver of that. But I'd say Daigneault's handling of the rest of the rotation (I love all of those guys!) put them over the top. A great season for the Thunder...now they gotta do it in the playoffs.

Runner-ups: Joe Mazzulo (Celtics), Chris Finch (Wolves), Ty Lue (Clippers), Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Executive of the Year

Brad Stevens (Celtics)

Bringing in Porzingis and Jrue Holiday (and giving extensions to both) vaulted the Celtics to one of the most dominating regular season teams we've seen in a while. Letting go of Marcus Smart (remember when he used to play for the Celtics?), Malcolm Brogdon (last year's 6th Man) and Robert Williams (their only real rim-protector) was a gamble. But the moves paid off and the Celtics are the odds-on fave to win it all (indeed, if the Celtics don't win the East it would be a major disappointment).

Runner-ups: Mavs, Knicks, Rockets

1st Team

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Jalen Brunson (Knicks), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

2nd Team

Anthony Edwards (Wolves), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), LeBron James (Lakers), Anthony Davis (Lakers)

3rd Team

Devin Booker (Suns), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Kevin Durant (Suns), Domantas Sabonis (Kings)

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac and Playoff Predictions

(Got bored down the stretch looking at 10-day contracts, I should probably just stop doing that. Here's a few moves that I missed)

Coach

Jamahl Mosley (Magic) signed 4-year extension

The Magic are a young team on the rise, Mosley came in as a promising behind-the-scenes guy and he's grown nicely with this team. Seems like the right move, especially since this roster is pretty well set for the future, I'd guess one big signing this summer, maybe some luck in the draft, but for the most part this squad is ready to grow together, Coach Mosley looks to be the right guy.

Player Contract

Jrue Holiday (Celtics) signs 4yr/$135m extension

Holiday has definitely been a good addition to this Celtics squad and since they've already extended Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis, seems like this is their roster for the foreseeable future. This is a good team that still has room to get better, this is a good move. 

Retired

Nemanja Bjelica, Rajon Rondo

I always loved Bjelica, too bad the big fella didn't have a coupla more years in him. I remember watching him with the Wolves and he would always have these bruises and cuts on his face--he perpetually looked like he just came from a fist fight in a Wal-Mart parking lot! Loved his game, big guy that shot 3's and took no shit, love that he got a ring with the Warriors. So long, big guy, I was a big fan.

On the other hand, as a lifelong Kentucky Wildcats supporter, I can honestly say Rajon Rondo was my LEAST favorite Wildcat (and he's actually from Kentucky!). I knew he had the skills to be great, I was not surprised by his success, but his taciturn selfishness torpedoed teams as much as he helped them. I still say the trade that sent him to the Mavs was the WORST single trade of the last decade (and one that everyone forgets), considering that the Mavs had the best offense in the league before the trade (didn't need to be done at all). That said, Rondo was a really good player and at his best was a for-real badass (almost as good as his own sense of self). Will he be back as a coach? On the one hand, he was clearly intelligent at basketball; on the other hand, he didn't strike me as the most outgoing, mentor-oriented guy. 

 

Post-Season Predictions

Play-in

(East) I'll take Heat over Sixers, Bulls over Hawks; Sixers over Bulls

(West) I'll take Pelicans over Lakers; Kings over Warriors; Lakers over Kings

1st round

(East) Celtics over Sixers in 5; Heat over Knicks in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Cavs over Magic in 7

(West) Thunder over Lakers in 7; Nuggets over Pelicans in 4; Wolves over Suns in 6; Mavs over Clippers in 6

2nd round

(East) Celtics over Cavs in 5; Bucks over Heat in 7

(West) Thunder over Mavs in 7; Nuggets over Wolves in 7

Conference finals

(East) Celtics over Bucks in 6

(West) Nuggets over Thunder in 6

This was my pre-season Final Four and I'm sticking with it. Yeah, OKC needs to show they can win in the playoffs and I think they will. But the Nuggets are still the team to beat in the West, the one truly ready-to-win team out there. The Celtics have easily been the best in the League this season and while the Bucks have been more shaky than solid this season, I still think they're better than everyone else (except the Celtics).

Finals

Nuggets over Celtics in 6

This was my pre-season pick and my all-star break pick, I don't see any reason to change. I think the Celtics can beat the Nuggets and it'll be a great series, but I'm sticking with the Jokic and co. until the explosion comes to defeat them. 

2024 Champions League (Quarterfinals (1st Leg))

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich

Arsenal opened the scoring on a lovely touch finding a momentary hole in the back line. Bayern's equalizer came from a botched pass out of the Arsenal defense (dude, crappy pass, crappy reception, bad giveaway). Bayern took the lead before halftime on a PK (good call). Arsenal secured the draw with some lovely touches in the box leading to a wide open strike. Bayern put one more off the post but couldn't convert and Arsenal had non-call in the box go against them (uh, looked like a penalty to me). Thought Bayern was the better team, they've been shaky all season long and they did let Arsenal get to goal twice, but if Bayern keeps to this level, they can advance. Even up going back to Munich, I gotta go with Bayern to try and salvage what has been a disappointing season.

Real Madrid 3-3 Manchester City

First: all three of Manchester's goals were awesome! That 2nd minute free kick goal was just not something I saw coming (neither did Real). Real bounced back nicely netting two goals (both deflections, fwiw) within the next ten minutes to hold the halftime lead. Felt like Real was gonna hold up but Man City got two quick goals--both nasty rips from the top of the box--to steal the momentum. But Real was able to secure the draw with a bullet from Valverde. Both teams were active, both teams attacked (and yet both were sturdy in the back), lots of action throughout, I wanna say the winner of this match moves on but everyone scored goals, too, so this might be all offense down the stretch. I like Man City to get the W back at home. 

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

Atletico opened the scoring in the 5th minute off a bad giveaway in the backfield led to the nifty finish (keeper was cooked).  Atletico extended the lead before halftime on another bad giveaway from the Dortmund defense. Felt like this might be a boat race, but I thought Dortmund pretty well dominated the 2nd half--hit the crossbar a million times!--but were only able to get back one goal (only a really nice spinning recovery rip). If Dortmund covers their mistakes, they've still got a shot at moving on, as Atletico is nice but hardly feels dominant. 

Paris SG 2-3 Barcelona

Barca opened the scoring before the half by capitalizing on chaos in front of the goal to stick an empty netter. Dembele got the equalizer right after halftime (with just a postage stamp of space!). PSG came right back and took the lead on a lovely finish as the overlapping run into the box found another postage stamp of space. From that point on, I thought Barca took over and were able to steal back to more goals: Rafinha with a perfect touch on an overhead cross into the box and a corner. Both teams are fairly evenly matched but Barcelona going back home with a lead is gonna be tough to beat. 

2024 Masters

(-11) Scottie Scheffler, (-7) Ludvig Aberg, (-4) Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Colin Morikawa

I watched a lot of Masters but by Saturday the field was pretty small and by Sunday it was pretty much just Scheffler watching Aberg, Homa, Morikawa and DeChambeau (-3 after 3 holes, +1 for the rest of the tourney) self-destruct around him and that was that. The only real tension was that Scheffler announced beforehand that if his any-minute-now-expecting wife called to tell him she was in labor, he was bailing at a moment's notice. Well, good for him the baby waited, now he's got another green jacket.  

Felt like no one was putting well on the first coupla days, a lot of lipping out or coming up just short, no one ever seemed to get a feel for the greens. Tiger made the cut...but was pretty awful on Saturday and Sunday. Mickelson and Singh hung around but never challenged the pack. DeChambeau had a moment where it felt like he was gonna hang, Max Homa looked good (til Sunday).  

I was intending to find a wider highlight package but Scheffler kinda dusted the field on Sunday, so just as well it's all him. Dominance is one thing but this Masters felt kinda anti-climactic and Scheffler made it his own.  

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Weeks 19-20)

Signed (extension)

Kelly Olynyk (2yr/$26.2m) 

I wondered what Toronto's plan was in getting Olynyk but giving him the 2-year extension makes more sense--at least now he's tradeable. I always liked Olynyk and I kinda like the moves the Raptors have made in the last few months but....they're still barely a play-in team in the East. So I expect them to be wheeling and dealing next year, too, and this deal is a good commodity for this squad (probably better than what Olynyk will bring them on the court). 

Signed (rest of season)

Aleksej Pokusevski (Hornets), Trent Forrest (Hawks), Jalen Wilson (Nets), Javon Freeman-Liberty (Raptors), Eugene Omoruyi (Wizards), Mike Muscala (Thunder), Dominick Barlow (Spurs), DJ Carton (Raptors), AJ Lawson (Mavs), Kendall Brown (Pacers), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Shake Milton (Knicks), Patty Mills (Heat), Darius Bazeley (Jazz), Kenny Lofton Jr (Jazz)

Sneaky move by the Hornets: stole Tre Mann from the Thunder in the swap for Gordon Hayward instead of Poku--who got cut anyway by the Thunder to free up summer money on the roster. FWIW, I still think if Poku could knock on a 20-footer, he could still be pretty good. 

Meanwhile, the Thunder basically replaced Poku with Mike Muscala and well neither of them were going to play anyway, so not sure it really makes any kind of difference on the floor. 

Patty Mills is still a nice player off the bench. Won't give the Heat more than 8-10 minutes per night, but if he has one nice game off the bench in the playoffs, then he will have been more than worth it. 

10-Day Contracts

Izaiah Brockington (Pelicans), RJ Hampton (Wizards), Jahmius Ramsey (Raptors), Taj Gibson (Pistons), TJ Warren (Wolves), Wenyen Gabriel (Wolves), Dejon Jarreu (Grizzlies), Taevion Kinsey (Jazz)

Can Warren be a nice scorer off the bench for the Wolves (now that Towns is out indefinitely)? Can he be Alec Burks? 

Gabriel has freakishly long arms and makes the defensive half (along with Warren) of the Towns-replacement platoon off the bench. Decent rebounder, he'll get some steals, maybe a few assists. Might be handy for eating innings to finish out the regular season. 

Taj Gibson....keep getting dem checks. 

Always like RJ Hampton, Wizards might be the last best shot for him.  

2-Way Contracts

Jeff Dowtin (Sixers), Jaylin Galloway (Bucks), Marques Bolden (Hornets), Jacob Gilyard (Nets), Harry Giles (Lakers), Jamaree Bouyea (Spurs), RaiQuan Gray (Spurs), Dylan Windler (Hawks), Jacob Toppin (Knicks), Alex Fudge (Mavs), Quenton Jackson (Pacers), Mouhamadou Gueye (Raptors), Ish Wainwright (Suns) 

Any chance any of these dudes really catch on or are all these guys staying in shape for Summer League?

Retired

Otto Porter Jr (Jazz)

Hmmm....well, he hasn't played hardly at all in the last 2 seasons, so is his body totally done or is this a paperwork plot to get him back to a real team next season? Hey, man, he was pretty good for the Warriors in their championship run just 2 years ago, I'm not completely out on him unless he feels like his body just can't do it any more.  Porter has a weird career: never as good as he should've been (#3 pick in the draft back in the day) but he also never really played any good teams, except for his one deep run with the Warriors. He was treated like a star when really he was a complementary player, if he had properly found his spot, he might've been a Scottie Pippen (or at least a Tayshaun Prince). He got a ring, he made a ton of money, so can't cry for the guy but he never had the career he should've had. (Possible he shows up in Denver or Boston next season? Wouldn't be shocked.....)

Waived/Released

Mike Muscala (Pistons), Patty Mills (Hawks), Darius Bazeley (Sixers), Kenneth Lofton Jr (Sixers), Nathan Mensah (Hornets), Dylan Windler (Lakers), Shake Milton (Pistons), Mamadi Diakite (Spurs), DJ Carton (Raptors), Jacob Toppin (Knicks), Dominick Barlow (Spurs), Justin Jackson (Wolves), DaQuen Jaffries (Knicks), Jalen Crutcher (Pelicans), Markquis Nowell (Raptors), Theo Maledon (Suns), Dru Smith (Heat), Sharife Cooper (Cavs), Matthew Hurt (Grizzlies)

Lot of a around-the-edges talent in this bunch. A fair amount have already been re-signed, a fair amount will be by the end of the month.  

2024 Champions League Round of 16 (2nd Leg)

Bayern Munich 3-0 (agg 3-1) Lazio

Not saying Bayern has completely righted the ship (although dropping 7 goals back in the Bundesliga in their very next match might be a better indicator), but they were clearly in control of this match throughout. Bayern attacked at will, Lazio just never could get the ball forward and never seemed dangerous at all. Is Bayern ready to go on a run? Well, this is the best they've looked all season so....maybe. 

Real Sociedad 1-2 (agg 1-4) Paris St. Germaine

(Didn't watch it; accidentally caught the score at a bar, wasn't shocked) PSG controlled both games, scored a ton, and while Sociedad didn't challenge them much on the defensive end, the offense still showed up and balled out, feels like the star power at PSG is ready to get it done. 

Real Madrid 1-1 (agg 2-1) Leipzig

Good form for Real. Not exactly a dominating victory but they were the better team pretty much the whole time. Leipzig was able to quickly counter Real's goal early in the 2nd half but couldn't muster much else after that. Real handled a lesser opponent but they kinda got lucky (phantom off-side that wiped away a Leipzig opening goal in Game One) and never really shined out (though they never really had to). Hard to tell how good Real actually is. 

Manchester City 3-1 (agg 6-2) Copenhagen

Copenhagen's two goals were both sweet, they are definitely the funnest so-so team I've seen in a long time. But they couldn't come close to Man City's firepower. Man City is looking pretty good, but let's be honest: they had pretty soft competition in this round. They scored, they moved the ball and they even overcame the weird offensive onslaught of Copenhagen, I'm not sure I think Man City is the best team so far, but they're up there.

Barcelona 3-1 (agg 4-2) Napoli

This felt like the breakout of Lamine Yamal, real control of the right wing in a way I'd never noticed him exert before. The back and forth was okay but a serious defensive breakdown of the Napoli back line gifted Barca the opening goal--which was almost immediately followed by another defensive lapse that led to the next goal! Man, what's going on in the Napoli backfield? Napoli was able to get on the board before halftime, salvaging the chance to still take this game. Lewandowski hasn't even done anything yet, gotta feel like he's still got a coupla big plays in him in the second half.  Oh, by the way, Osimhen is still nothing but off-side. In the 2nd half, Napoli's attack was much stronger but they never could crack the backline. Meanwhile, Barcelona finished it off with a beautiful tic-tac run though the Napoli backline. Good W for Barcelona, stating to look for-real dangerous going forward.

Arsenal 1-0 (agg 2-1 (PKs)) Porto

Kind of a boring match, really, neither team established much offense and yet somehow the defense wasn't inspiring either. Arsenal got it done in penalty kicks and they're moving on but they strike me as probably the most offensively challenged of the quarterfinalists.

Dortmund 2-0 (agg 3-1) PSV Eindhoven

Dortmund struck early (er, well, Eindhoven's defense started slow) on a sweet lo strike by Malen and that pretty much finished the game. Dortmund's attack was pretty great for the rest of the 1st half and though PSV picked up its attack in the 2nd half, they couldn't get a really good look at the goal. Reus was able to finish it in extra time with a fluky goal (last defender just lost his footing leaving the goalie 1-on-1 with the greatest goal scorer in Dortmund's history) and Dortmund is moving on. I thought they were the better team in both games but they didn't exactly blow me away. We'll see about them in the quarterfinals. 

Atletico Madrid 2-1 (agg 3-2 (PKs)) Inter Milan

As opposed to Porto-Arsenal, which felt like two evenly matched mediocre squads, these two felt evenly matched superior teams dueling each other to a thrilling standstill. This was a fun match, felt like throughout Atletico was the better side but Inter had stretches of controlling the attack and looking kinda dangerous. Atletico worked long balls into the box early on but in the 2nd half settled into more orderly possession-heavy incursions that found a lot more good lucks than Inter had. The extra time was fun, the shootout was fun (largely because the home crowd got satisfaction), fun match all the way though. Hate to lose Inter, though they were pretty good.

I'd rank #1-8:

Manchester City, Paris-St.Germaine, Real Madrid, Bayern Munchen (the wild card), Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Dortmund, Arsenal

#9-16:

Inter Milan, Lazio, Leipzig, Napoli, PSV Eindhoven, Real Sociedad, Porto, Copenhagen

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 18)

Firings

Nets fire Head Coach Jacques Vaughn; Kevin Ollie named interim coach

Well, hard to say that Vaughn was the problem with this team but no one seems to mind that he's gone, so maybe this is a step up. Can Ollie hold the job? I doubt it, but he's got a chance to win over the locker room, if he can get something out of Denis Shroeder then maybe they close strong. 

Contract Extension

Mike Conley (Wolves) signed 2yr/$21m

Conley has been the right guy for this team, this is a great deal. 

Waivings

Lester Quinones (Warriors), Malcolm Cazelon (Pistons), Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder), Zhaire Smith (Cavs), Stanley Umude (Pistons), Jacob Gilyard (Grizzlies), 

Alas, Poku, we hardly knew ye. Hey, man, I've long thought that if that guy could knock down a 20 footer he could still be a baller. 

10 Day Contracts

Darius Bazley (Sixers), Marques Boldin (Hornets), Jacob Toppin (Knicks), DJ Carton (Raptors), DaQuan Jeffries (Knicks), Jalen Crutcher (Pelicans), Justin Jackson (Wolves), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) 

Did you see Toppin's audition for the dunk contest? Impressive. Then again, I watched him at Kentucky and....well...good athlete, good ball handler, decent rebounder, don't see him being of much use to an NBA roster, though.

Signed for the Rest of the Season

Thadeus Young (Suns), Onuralp Bitim (Bulls)

The Suns need the position that Young plays, not sure he's the one, though.

2-way Contracts

Pete Nance (Cavs), Ryan Rollins (Bucks), Jaylen Martin (Nets), Malcolm Hill (Pelicans), Pat Spencer (Warriors), Ashton Hagans (Blazers), Buddy Boeheim (Pistons), Tosan Evbuomwan (Pistons), Jordan Goodwin (Grizzlies), Andrew Funk (Bulls)

I dunno, we'll see.

2024 Champions League (Round of 16) (1st Leg)

Leipzig 0-1 Real Madrid

Leipzig got gypped (right?) on an early offside call that negated a goal in the first few minutes of the game; the guy who scored was NOT offside, I suppose the call was interference from the other forward (meh, 50-50 at best) but otherwise I never understood why the goal didn't stand. Too bad, because for the most part Leipzig hung with Real, felt like they held possession and attacked fairly well. They were inches away on connecting a million times in this game. But Real finished its best chance early in the 2nd half and they made it stand up. Kept waiting for Vini to get loose up front, but he felt kinda invisible. Close enough that the 2nd leg is up in the air, but I gotta go with Real at home to finish it off.

Copenhagen 1-3 Manchester City

Copenhagen is the very definition of "plucky". They looked like a pack of overachievers for the most part, any time someone would make a nice run with the ball and you're getting excited about the possibilities, he would invariably make the worst pass imaginable and suddenly the action is going the other way. I will say they do create a lot of chaos in front of the goal and their one score was pretty awesome--and repeatable, I'd say. But Man City had more talent, more control, and they did better with their opportunities. That third goal was a killer, you'd like to think Copenhagen might have a shot going on the road down 1 goal but down 2 seems like too much of a climb. Copenhagen's best chance is to play crazy and see what happens. 

Paris SG 2-0 Real Sociedad

It took PSG until the 2nd half to find the net (sneaky rebound by Mbappe on a corner kick--how does Mbappe get so wide open in front of the net?) but once they did, the game was over. I really liked the left-winger Take for Sociedad, that guy had spicy moves and was the only one creating any kind of pressure on PSG's back line. Not a laugher exactly, it took PSG a while to find the flow of the offense, but it was only a matter of time before they did. Sociedad gets to go back home but I'd be pretty surprised if they outscored PSG.  

Lazio 1-0 Bayern Munich

Bayern seemed kinda out of it in this game, no coherence, no worthwhile attack, but in the moments when they did pull it together, they still seemed more dangerous than Lazio. (I caught Leverkusen laying a 3-0 beatdown on Bayern last weekend--yipes! Don't see Bayern get dropkicked like that very often; so is Bayern struggling or have that got the yips out of their system? (Or is Leverkusen just crazy good for no fuckin' reason this year?)) Lazio controlled the ball well but I never felt much for their push forward. They got a PK (good call, didn't look like much live but on the replay it was clearly a penalty (though maybe the red card was a little harsh)), and they made it stand up. Again, Bayern was mostly listless but their brief moments were still better than Lazio's best game. Gotta think Bayern will go back home and get the W.

PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Borussia Dortmund

In the 1st half, PSV had 3-4 clear chances at the goal and managed to make nothing of them, while Dortmund barely cracked the Eindhoven box and somehow drilled a postage stamp size hole in the defense for the halftime lead. Dortmund felt like the better team but Eindhoven was giving the better performance only to come up short at halftime. But they were gifted a PK (I dunno, man, looked like he got ball, I didn't even think it about live and was pretty unconvinced by the replay) and were able to pull out the draw. It is probably the right result but still feels kinda grimy. I can't help thinking Dortmund is the better team, I expect them to push through back at home. 

Inter Milan 1-0 Atletico Madrid

A rather ho-hum match, actually. Both sides were pretty even, Inter was able to shake loose on a breakaway and get the finish. Otherwise, the two sides were similar and while the game wasn't boring, no one ever really felt dangerous around the goal, nor did either team really seem superior to the other. This one is a toss up going back to Madrid. 

Napoli 1-1 Barcelona

Considering both of these squads are notoriously bad on defense this season, I found it ironic that neither team was able to develop much offense. Bacelona got stuck going up the Gundigan channel, which just never worked at pushing the ball into the box. I was sitting there thinking, 'when are they gonna get the ball to Lewandoski?' And, sure enough, once they finally got him the ball in the box, he delivered. And on the other side, even though Osimhen annoyed me through most of the match (always complaining, always off-side), when he was able to finally corral a pass in front of the goal, he was able to finish. After the Lewandowski goal, felt like Napoli stepped up their attack. If they can keep that going in the next leg, I can see them moving on. This is probably the clearest tossup of the 8 matchups. 

FC Porto 1-0 Arsenal

These may be the two lamest offense in the Round of 16. Porto seems to only backward--it's like their offense doesn't start until the goalie touches the ball. And Arsenal just never makes the adjustments necessary to move forward, they just keep flinging it around their backfield like they're stuck in a whirlpool. It's gonna take a major accident or act of God (or ref) for either team to score. But then, in the final minutes, Porto struck gold with a lovely easy-as-you-please chip shot from 25 yards out that snuck inside the far post. Beautiful! Okay, I guess Arsenal has a puncher's chance to match that back at home, but I think a scoreless draw is more likely, so I gotta stick with Porto.  

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (League at the All Star Break)

East

Celtics (43w) 

Clear faves, looking good, playing good, they've got their roster in place, just need to avoid injuries. I don't see any MVP or DPOY or 6th Man candidates here, this team is too deep and flexible to really need any kind of stepping up. 

Cavs (36), Bucks (35), Knicks (33)

The Cavs have been on a great run lately and they've really transformed their chemistry lately, but I can't help thinking they're peaking too early. I like them, but I think they finish 4th.

So are the Bucks good in spite of themselves or bad but with bursts of awesome? The Lillard transition has been harder then expected, now the Doc Rivers transition needs to happen, and once Middleton gets healthy, they'll need to work him back into shape. But I still think Giannis is the best player in the East and he alone will drag them into the playoffs. But I think they'll have to expend a great deal of energy to stay in 3rd.

Are you ready for the Knicks to make a run? I like this team to pull together and surge ahead of the Bucks and Cavs and finish 2nd overall. I think they'll keep riding Brunson and fill in the details around him and if they stay healthy, they could be a real handful in the post-season. 

Sixers (32), Pacers (31), Heat (30), Magic (30)

The Sixers without Embiid are gonna struggle to go .500 the rest of the way, which would bring them to 46 wins, which I think is in play-in territory. If Embiid never makes it back, they may well just flail all the way out but they're not bad enough for that. But they'll do well to finish 8th or so, which gives them 2 shots at facing the Celtics in the 1st round---yipes! That said, if they can play strong down the stretch and then add Embiid...you think the Celtics are shaking?

I don't see the Pacers being good enough to sneak into the top 4 and they'll have trouble holding off the Magic for the 5th spot, I think they finish 6th and take the trip to Milwaukee to see if the Bucks are for real.

The Heat often coast through the regular season so maybe I shouldn't be shocked that they look lucky to finish in 6th place, but I think there's something off with this team. Bam is not as dominant as he ought to be, Jimmy Butler doesn't look right and even with the resurrection of Duncan Robinson, the emergence of Jaime Jacquez and the addition of Terry Rozier, I don't see these guys having the fire or the smarts (or the luck) of the last few vintage Heat playoff performers. I think they finish 7th and have to play their way to Madison Square for the 1st round (oooh, I'm talking myself into that one!). 

I like the Magic to let it all hang out and push their way ahead to the 5th seed. Come playoff time they will either be a seasoned squad or they'll be spent. Can they take the Cavs in the 1st round? I dunno, perhaps the widest variance of any possible playoff matchup.

Bulls (26), Hawks (24)

The Bulls are crafty veterans but I don't see how they get better from here. They could be susceptible to a Hawks run, but I can't see them higher than 9 or lower than 10.

The Hawks are gearing up a weird off-season, they got a lot of questions to answer and I suspect the real fireworks don't come for this squad until the season is done. Can they sneak ahead of the Bulls? (I think they will) Can they catch the falling Sixers? (Meh, I doubt it, but perhaps they can best them in the play-in)

Nets (21), Raptors (19), Hornets (13), Wizards (9), Pistons (9)

The Nets could win games if they wanted to--I just don't think they want to. Will Denis Schroder lead this rag tag bunch of wing defenders into the play-in? Possible but I doubt it. 

The Raptors have completely given up on this season, they're not even trying to win. That said, I think they've kinda remade themselves for the future, so they may take this time to develop some chemistry.

The Hornets are not good and they're injured right now and they're an undefined jumble after the trade deadline. I'd be shocked if they finish higher than 13th in the East.

I'm a little surprised the Pistons are worse than the Wizards, who just looked like the worst team in the league last summer to me. I think the Pistons will sneak ahead of the Wizards, as the Wizards have move on from their one reliable down low defender/rebounder (Daniel Gafford), whereas the Pistons got rid of everyone that wasn't immediately in the youth movement, meaning that team is now free to just be themselves and they'll have moments down the stretch.

West

Wolves (39w)

I like the Wolves to finish 1st and extend their lead while doing so. In fact, I think they may face the discomfort of clinching too early and being rusty in the playoffs. They know who they are, they're playing well and they play a lot more games at home from here on out, so I think they cruise into the top spot.

Thunder (37), Clippers (36), Nuggets (36)

I love this OKC squad, yeah, they're young but I think SGA is that good--he's a for real superstar right now and I think OKC already possessed all the firepower they need going forward. That said, I think the Nuggets are due for a run and I think it's the Thunder they bear the brunt of that. So I think they finish 4th i the West.

The Clippers are in a groove. I don't think they rise, I don't think they droop, I think they finish 3rd.

I have the Nuggets leapfrogging the Thunder and Clippers to finish 2nd. This team has been on cruise control all season long and whereas last year, they lollygagged through March and April, this year I think they charge toward the playoffs and sneak up to 2nd (and look damn scary doing it, too!).

Suns (33), Pelicans (33), Mavs (32), Kings (31)

I think the Suns are better positioned that I would've thought heading into the back stretch but I think they take their foot off the gas to avoid injuries and slide back to 6th place. 

The Pelicans are a weird team: their W's and L's have no rhyme or reason to them, I can't tell if they're winning games they don't deserve or if they ought to have a much better record because they lose too much! At any rate, I think they falter down the stretch and get passed by the Mavs and Kings, leading to a play-in game on the road. 

The Mavs upgraded nicely at the trade deadline, just a matter of working in their new rotation and I think they're primed for a late season push. I think they get up to #5.

The Kings started the season so poorly, they feel lucky to be in 8th right now. But I think they're trending in the right direction and I think they outplay the teams behind them and secure 7th place for a home play-in game (light the beam!).

Lakers (30), Warriors (27)

The Lakers are getting good, healthy seasons out of Anthony Davis and Lebron and that's good enough for 9th place in the West. Dang! I like them to stay ahead of the Warriors but not to catch the Kings (or Pelicans).

The Warriors are playing better. Took them a while to get going, but Kuminga has emerged, Draymond seems older and wiser and Klay Thompson understands his new role. This team could be a real snake bite to the squad that isn't ready. 

Jazz (26), Rockets (24)

The Jazz have had some real ups and downs so far, but I think they're kinda done. I don't see them outplaying the West from here, so I can't see them climbing into a play-in spot. I see them as #12.

I thought the Rockets would struggle with their new vets and their promising youth but then find their stride after the all-star break and finish strong. Well, I was almost kinda right: this team is actually pretty good at home and pretty terrible on the road. I thought it would be a developmental process throughout the season, but instead it is an indelible home/road split that has persisted all season. Okay, well, I think they finish strong, wouldn't be shocked to see them make the play-in tourney, but I doubt it. I think they finish 11th--and go free agent hunting in the summer!

Grizzlies (20), Blazers (15), Spurs (11)

Yeah, these three are long done. The Grizz were done in by Ja Morant's early season suspension followed quickly by his season-ending injury. In the last few years, they've actually played well without Ja but they never got going this season, wasted from day one.

The Blazers not trading Malcolm Brogdon was the low key underreported bombshell of the trade deadline, that guy was built to complement a playoff roster--not a rebuild. The good news for the Blazers is they have a bevy of good-looking youngsters and I expect the veterans to be stripped (and replaced) in the off-season.

The Spurs made no effort to be good this year. And they're not. Another top 5 pick is probably just what they need.

East Playoffs Prediction

Heat over Sixers, Hawks over Bulls; Hawks over Sixers

Celtics over Hawks in 5; Knicks over Heat in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Magic over Cavs in 6

Celtics over Magic in 5; Bucks over Knicks in 6

Celtics over Bucks in 7

West Playoffs Prediction

Kings over Pelicans; Warriors over Lakers; Warriors over Pelicans

Wolves over Warriors in 7; Nuggets over Kings in 7; Clippers over Suns in 7; Thunder over Mavs in 7

Thunder over Wolves in 6; Nuggets over Clippers in 6

Nuggets over Thunder in 7

Championship

Nuggets over Celtics in 7

There it is....future all laid out for ya.

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (All Star Break look at the season so far)

I've developed a new way of analyzing player stats. This may or may not be fruitful....but it is new to me, so I dig it. And I dig it because while broadly it seemed in line with eye-test observations, in the details there was some delineation that I had not expected and that I found quite interesting. So during the All-Star break (or as I call it "The Week Without Basketball"), I thought I'd give a full look to the award candidates so far. 

MVP

Tier 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)

I assumed I would end up with Giannis first and Shai in my top five, but Shai's weakness is rebounding (not a big deal for a playmaking PG), while Gianni's weakness is Assist:turnover, which is a bit distressing for the guy that has the ball as much as he does. Otherwise, they were both awesome at everything--awesomer than everyone else at everything. So, yeah, I'm taking Shai over Giannis for now.

Tier 2: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Luka Doncic (Mavs)

At first I had Luka ahead of Jokic but after further narrowing, Jokic squeezed back ahead of Luka. They're both having great years but the Nuggets are perceived as coasting while Luka is perceived as raising his game. The fact that they're both at a similar rarified level is not a surprise.

Tier 3: Anthony Davis (Lakers), Jalen Brunson (Knicks)

Davis hasn't missed time and--no surprise--his numbers are way up (that is to say, back where they belong). You think that alone would make the Lakers more formidable but the West is strong this year. Brunson is the man in the Garden, doing everything well and a pleasure to watch to boot. Great season, on the edge of MVP consideration to me, surely gonna be All-Pro. 

Tier 4: Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Domantas Sabonis (Kings), Kevin Durant (Suns), Paolo Banchero (Magic), LeBron James (Lakers), Trae Young (Hawks)

Edwards has begun to take the next step but I think he can still get a lot better. He gets buckets but I think he can still be a better defender and playmaker and get even more efficient while doing it. He's an amazing athlete and he has no bad habits as a basketball player and his ascent is going to be mighty--but I think next season will likely be even mightier! His team has jumped a notch along with him and the Wolves are well on their way to the #1 seed in the West. Keep an eye on Edwards: he can win the MVP this year but he's already my odds-on fave for next year.

Tatum is in that place of his career where he casually balls out on most nights but can crank it up when he feels the need. The team around him is well designed to give him the latitude to pick and choose as he needs night in and night out. That said, I don't see Tatum as a serious MVP candidate because I don't think he'll need to take a step up for the rest of this season, his team is too good and the rest of the east is too soft.

DeRozan is a solid vet putting up numbers on a so-so squad. Not a real candidate but, hey, why didn't more teams kick the tires on bringing him over at the deadline (I'm looking at you, Sixers and Lakers).

Sabonis is a really quite a nice player and I wonder if anyone notices. He went down hard in the playoffs last year (though I'd blame Fox's broken finger) and perhaps that's the impression that the casual NBA fan has of Sabonis, but he's better than that. I don't see him winning the MVP unless the Kings make a serious run into the top 3 in the West (possible but not likely).

I caught an early season Suns game where basically everyone was injured but Durant and he was all by himself out there doing it all on both ends. I feel like he's contributing more on defense (out of necessity) than he has in ages and it is bringing his game to life. I don't see the Suns climbing higher than 5th in the West--and if they do it'll be because of the resurgence of Booker and/or Beal, so as good as he's playing this season, I don't see Durant as a real MVP candidate. 

Banchero is doing some heavy lifting in Orlando. But he's not really in MVP talk (check in again next year).

Lebron is still Lebron, man. He's not the dominant force he used to be but he's still a hell of a player and a presence. But I'd say the Lakers go as far as AD carries them, so I don't see Lebron winning the MVP.

Trae Young is putting up nice numbers in Atlanta but the Hawks are still only so-so and as dominant as Trae is, you would have expected him to mold the team to his liking more than he has. This team is headed for a tumultuous off-season and no matter how good Trae's numbers are, I'd be shocked to see him getting any real MVP consideration unless the Hawks rocket up the stadings. 

Tier 5: De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Damian Lillard (Bucks), Donovan Mitchell (Cavs)

Fox, like his teammate Sabonis, is a helluva player that doesn't get enough love--but they gotta do something in the playoffs to get the notice and they have yet to do that. Unless the Kings make a serious run in the 2nd half of the season, I don't see either of them getting much MVP consideration--and even then, they probably need a playoff run to get them into next year's conversation. 

Barnes was one that jumped out at me--man, he puts up pretty good numbers in Toronto. And now that they've moved on from Siakim and Anunoby, I expect Barnes's numbers to steady up for a while. But that team is not worthy of MVP talk, so maybe next year.

Lillard's defense is still sorry as always and his FG% has been off this season, but you know what? The rest of his numbers are still pretty good. The Bucks this year have the widest variance of any team I can remember--they can look like the obvious faves in the East on one night and then get drubbed by a barely mediocre squad the next night--and still look like pretty much the same team. This is a team built on out-shooting everyone rather than playing defense and that'll make them a good night/bad night kinda team. They could still pull it together in playoffs, but I don't see Lillard getting any MVP votes this year.

Mitchell led a lightning charge of the Cavs into the break and while Mitchell's numbers are not at the top of the class, if he can keep the Cavs winning though the 2nd half then he might be worthy of some MVP votes. Mitchell is still on the could be list.

Tier 6: Devin Booker (Suns), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers)

I don't see Booker being in the MVP talk because even is he does lead a 2nd half resurgence, that will call attention to how boss Durant was in the 1st half. 

If Maxey can keep the Sixers afloat while Embiid convalesces, he'll be worthy of some consideration--but that's a big if. I like Maxey, interesting to see how similar he is to Booker, actually, but to get votes in this race, he'd have to bring some serious magic.

Tier 7: Steph Curry (Warriors), Karl-Anthony Towns (Wolves)

Shocked that Steph isn't higher! Add in that once you get past the 4th tier, it becomes ever more subjective--there are others that I left out of consideration (Tyrese Halliburton, Cade Cunningham, Alperen Sengun, Jaylen Brown, etc.) that might rival this group. Steph is still fun to watch and the Warriors have gotten better lately, but I'd say it's the emergence of Kuminga and the re-invention of Draymond that has made the difference there. But if the Warriors make a run, Steph will be the one to get the accolades.

Towns is nice but the Wolves are Edwards's team at this point. 

So as for as MVP goes I'd say there is a clear top 4 (Shai, Giannis, Luka, Jokic), then a coupla guys that are balling out (AD, Brunson) and then a coupla guys that could step it up (Edwards, Donovan Mitchell) and really make a push. Throw in two sentimental faves that could score votes just because (Steph, Durant) and there's your top 10. I'd be shocked if anyone outside of these 10 won the MVP and for now I expect most of these dudes to finish top 10 in the voting. 

Rookie of the Year

I started with all 89 (for now) Rookies, bouncing their stats against each other. From there, seven clear tiers emerged:

Tier 1: I have Chet Holmgren (Thunder) slightly ahead of Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) 

Obviously, these are the two guys--barring a catastrophic something, it's hard to imagine these aren't the top 2 guys. My pre-season pick was that Holmgren would be a good player on a good team and that Victor would be exciting but his team would suck and he'd probably get shut down by season's end. I've been kinda right about that, though I think eye-test-wise Victor feels like the more bankable prospect and since I see ROY as a forward-looking award, I can understand why people would see Victor as the better prospect going forward. However, the fact that Chet is already contributing to a good team boosts his prospect-ness, as well. So this looks as close to me as we've seen in ages--wouldn't be shocked if it's a tie! (Or that Victor gets shut down and Chet just matriculates past him, as I kinda figured would happen anyway) Whatever happens, I'm pretty confident these are going to be my top 2, in whatever order.

Tier 2: Jaime Jacquez (Heat), Ausar Thompson (Pistons), Brandon Miller (Hornets)

These three are for-real. Jacquez has "Heat Culture" written all over him. Thompson is a ferocious wing defender and feels like he's rounding into a for-real playmaker. Miller looks like a money scorer in this league--a rare home run for the Hornets!

Tier 3: Bilal Coulibaly (Wizards), Keyonte George (Jazz), Scoot Henderson (Blazers), Amen Thompson (Rockets), Dereck Lively (Mavs), Brandin Podzeimski (Warriors), Toumani Camara (Blazers), Cason Wallace (Thunder) 

The real variant in this crew is FG%: Scoot and Coulibaly are actually pretty good at everything but both kinda suck on FG%, while Lively is so dominant in FG% that it lifts him in everything else. I was a little surprised Wallace wasn't higher in the pack here, but he doesn't get to the line much and he's not a notable rebounder. George and Thompson are really just starting to get meaningful minutes, they strike me as the two that could rocket up this list. 

Tier 4: Marcus Sasser (Pistons), Duop Reath (Blazers), Trayce Jackson-Davis (Warriors), Anthony Black (Magic), Jordan Hawkins (Pelicans)

A little surprised Hawkins wasn't a little higher in this tier but his defensive stats and FG% are not so great comparatively. Interesting, huh, that the Warriors are buoyed by two productive rookies....after successive years of getting nothing from James Wiseman, Moses Moody or Jonathon Kaminga--can it be that (dare I say) Steve Kerr is actually becoming a good coach? (Or perhaps the question is: how long before Draymond punches one of these dudes in the face?)

Tier 5: Criag Porter Jr (Cavs), Cam Whitmore (Rockets)

I don't know Porter (Cavs are in my blackout zone), but seems like Whitmore is just getting started, feels like the Rockets might have another burst of goodness before the end of the year. 

Tier 6: GG Jackson (Grizzlies)

Just getting started, is he benefitting from being the only non-injured guy on the roster or can he be a legit filler-upper in this league? I'm guessing he's for real and I expect him to rise up this list--maybe waaaaay up this list!--before the season's end.

Tier 7: Sasha Vezenkov (Kings), Nick Smith (Hornets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Vasilije Micic (Hornets), Kris Murray (Blazers), Gradey Dick (Raptors), Andre Jackson (Bucks)

Nice players. Feels like Dick is starting work his way in, Vezenkov might be going to waste in Sac-town, Micic needs more minutes than he will probably find in the NBA (wouldn't be surprised to see him heading off to China or back to Europe next year), Strawther is a nice rotation guy in Denver and the Blazers have a lot to look forward to (even if it seems bleak at the moment).  

Defensive Player of the Year

Okay, I'm a counting stats guy, not an advanced stats guy. You can say 'But, counting stats don't show the whole picture'. That's right, neither do advance stats. And if we were to invent advanced advanced stats, they would still skew in favor of some further rabbit-hole. My rationale for not going too deep into the stats: if you just keep looking, you'll just keep Heisenberg-ing yourself into a further skewed reality. What good is that?

I say all this because when I analyze DPOY through the lens of Stocks (Steals + Blocks) and Defensive Rebounds, people treat me like a hillbilly. The stats are the stats and I think good defense either ends with a turnover or a rebound--what more do you need? Like digging through the deeper stats will settle once and for all whether the greatest nation on earth is Mexico or Portugal. I don't buy it! 

Okay, I'll try to go deeper: free throw attempts and assists. Why are these stats relevant to DPOY? I dunno, they might not be, but let's check it out. 

8 guys in top 20 of Stocks and Defensive Rebounds: Rudy Gobert (Wolves), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Anthony Davis (Lakers), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), Chet Holmgren (Thunder), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Nic Claxton (Nets)

I'd be a little surprised if this year's DPOY was not one of these 8 guys (but I've been shocked before especially in this category). (*)

Of those, 3 are also top 20 in FTA: Jokic, Davis, Giannis

Of those, 2 are also top 20 in Assists: Jokic, Giannis

What more do you want? These guys are giving top tier defensive intensity and giving you the most for your offensive possession at the same time. (Do you see why I keep saying Giannis and Jokic are the best--and have been for several years now?!?!?)

Honorable mention: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) is top 20 in Stocks (and Steals), FTA (at a better rate than Jokic and a much higher rate than Giannis) and Assists (at a much better a:t than Giannis, a similar rate to Jokic) and has precisely 2 fewer total rebounds than Brook Lopez (Bucks) in the same number of games. 

Yeah yeah yeah: Walker Kessler (Jazz), Alex Caruso (Bulls), Matisse Thybulle (Blazers) are having nice seasons, too. I don't want to denigrate their performances. But I can't put them in the same stratosphere as the ones above. Perhaps there is a 5-level chess version of defensive analysis that proves conclusively that they are better human beings than me, but I don't dig for a living 'cause I ain't Indiana Jones. 

6th Man

Yeah, my analysis isn't as rigorous for 6th Man, my tiers don't seem as solid to me. I think there's a lot more leeway in this group of guys and their relative skill sets and I think there's still enough time for any one of these dudes to emerge an steal this award. (Also, it feels like the actual voters for this award don't do the due diligence and just vote based on broad perception or reputation, which may have nothing to do with who is actually worthy of the award)

Tier 1: Malik Monk (Kings), Russell Westbrook (Clippers), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks), Immanuel Quickley (Raptors)

Monk was my choice last year and he's still balling out. The Kings are good and if they can make a serious push up the standings, I can definitely see Monk getting votes.

I've been saying for years that Westbrook's mission in life now ought to be winning 6th Man (a very short list of dudes that have an MVP and a 6th Man). The Clippers are good and I think Westbrook's dominance on the 2nd string has a lot to do with that.

The next two are a bit of a problem: Bogdaonivc and Quickley should both probably be starting rather than coming off the bench. If the Hawks are going to make a push, I can see Bogie starting over Dejounte Murray, putting Murray in the Westbrook-off-the-bench role. And as for Quickley, well, the Raptors don't really have a regular ball handling playmaker, time to see if Quickley's numbers scale up with more playing time. 

Tier 2: Kelly Olynyk (Raptors), Tre Jones (Spurs), Jordan Clarkson (Jazz), Onyeke Okongwu (Hawks). Cole Anthony (Magic), Bobby Portis (Bucks), Kyle Anderson (Grizzlies)

Again, more problems in this tier. Not sure what Olynyk does for the Raptors whether he's starting or not. I think Jones's numbers are weirdly skewed because of how he's used in San Antonio (also, he should probably be starting anyway). Clarkson has been fine but I've long found him overrated and not really the right fit for the Jazz. Okongwu is nice but I don't see him as the vital 6th Man on his own team. Anthony is nice but I'm not sure he's making any real difference for the Magic. The Wolves are too deep, too good for Anderson to get much notice. 

Portis is the one guy here that I can see getting votes, especially if the Bucks can solidify themselves in the top 2 in the East. 

Tier 3: Andre Drummond (Bulls), Isaiah Hartenstein (Knicks), Jaime Jacquez (Heat), Benedict Mathurin (Pacers), Naz Reid (Wolves), Mo Wagner (Magic), Walker Kessler (Jazz), Norman Powell (Clippers), Reggie Jackson (Nuggets)

Hartenstein and Kessler have real identities in their home markets as guys that bring good D off the bench, they're both having good seasons and have the right reputations to get votes. As opposed to, say, Drummond, for whom no one will be voting. 

If Jackson had some specific noteworthy run down the stretch for the Nuggets or just became an unstoppable bucket-getter off the bench, I guess I can see him getting votes. 

As for the other guys: no one votes for rookies (sorry, Jacquez), Reid has the Kyle Anderson problem, Wagner has the Cole Anthony problem, no one at the end of the day is going to notice Norman Powell, and Mathurin's numbers kinda fall apart upon inspection. 

Tier 4: TJ McConnell (Pacers), Duncan Robinson (Heat), Tim Hardaway Jr (Mavs), Al Horford (Celtics), Josh Hart (Knicks), Dyson Daniels (Pelicans)

I can see Duncan Robinson getting votes because he is having a much better year than his recent efforts (he's more of a Comeback candidate). Always loved McConnel but I don't see anyone voting for him--or Hardaway or Horford either. Hart is nice but his numbers are kinda janky. Daniels has his fans but the Pelicans are a weird team. 

Tier 5: Chris Paul (Warriors), Kevin Love (Heat), Scoot Henderson (Blazers), Keyonte George (Jazz), Alec Burks (Knicks)

Could name recognition buoy CP3 or Love to the top? They'll get votes whether they deserve them or not.

Sorry, Scott and Keyontae, no one votes for rookie. As for Burks, actually I've always found him underrated but, to be fair, he does his best when the game is already over (re: up by or down by 25 points late in the 3rd quarter).

Most Improved

Josh Giddy (Thunder), Jalen Johnson (Hawks), Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors), Aaron Nesmith (Pacers), Alperen Sengun (Rockets), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Coby White (Bulls)

I have them alphabetically because I didn't do any real deep diving on this, just playing the feels. This could change radically down the stretch but so far these feel like good candidates. 

Coach of the Year

Chris Finch (Wolves), Mark Daigneault (Thunder), Ty Lue (Clippers)

I dunno, I've been really impressed with the West teams finding their lineups and getting W's. 

We'll see if the Wolves can keep it going in the post-season. We'll see if the Thunder can go up a level in the post-season. We'll see if the Clippers can keep their shit from completely falling apart. (The Celtics, incidentally, are a much better bet on all three of those standards, so maybe I should have...) But for now the three top teams in the West are looking strong and in charge--gonna be a great playoff!

Exec of the Year

Knicks (uh...who runs this team?)

Since last summer the Knicks have boldly moved on from Obi Toppin, Immanual Quickly, RJ Barrett and Quinton Grimes--all up-and-coming fan favorites. Re-signing Josh Hart was the right move at the time. Adding Donte DiVincenzo was a great move and rebuilding the roster for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks look like master strokes. They showed the proper faith in Isaiah Hartenstein and Julius Randle and they unleashed Jalen Brunson to be the floor leader. And they did it all without giving up any 1st round picks. 

The Knicks are a whole new franchise all of the sudden and they've made so many correct moves in a row that my head is spinning! The Celtics had a great off-season, too, but they already had more to work with and their moves were no-brainers, whereas the Knicks had to take some real initiative. If the Knicks finish top 4 in the East, these moves will look even more genius-ish.  

(*) I will say that with Daniel Gafford moving to the Mavs, he will have a chance to be much more impactful on a good team that everyone pays attention to. I can see him stepping up his game and seeing the reward. If DPOY isn't one of those 8, Gafford and Shai are the only two that even come close to having a shot to my mind. 

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 16) (Trade Deadline)

Trades

Celtics get Xavier Tillman; Pelicans get Lamar Stevens; Grizzlies get 2027 2nd rd pick, 2030 2nd rd pick

Celtics finally get the rim protection they've needed for years (Robert Williams was pretty good in his time but seemingly always injured). Grizzlies get a couple more 2nd rd picks to throw on the pile and, since Stevens hasn't been waived, I guess they plan on adding Stevens to the rotation. 

Pistons get Troy Brown Jr, Shake Milton, 2030 2nd rd pick; Wolves get Monte Morris

Pistons didn't really need Morris, a vet hungry for some playoff run, but I'm not sure they needed Brown or Milton, either--well, until they waived most of their roster, stripping it back down to pure youth movement--as they are already Cunningham and Ivey as ball dominant attackers. As for the Wolves, well, Morris is fine, gives them a little more toughness on D, little more irrational confidence on offense, and since Milton had fallen pretty far out of the rotation, this was an easy move for them.

Pacers get Cory Joseph, 2025 2n rd pick, cash; Warriors get 2024 2nd rd pick

Since Joseph has already been cut, this looks to be a paper-shuffling move for the Warriors, opening the spot for a buy out (big man?), I presume. Presumably the Pacers get the better 2nd rd pick and for a team that values the draft, that might become something useful.  

Pistons get Danuel House Jr, 2024 2n rd pick; Sixers get 2028 2nd rd pick

Another roster-shuffling move, as House has already been waived by the Pistons. Not sure why the Sixers are moving on from House, he's a nice contributor and I'm not sure I see someone more fitting for them out their in the buy-out market, but I guess they have moves in mind, already. As for the Pistons, it's just another 2nd rd pick for the upcoming draft. 

Jazz get Otto Porter Jr, Kira Lewis Jr, 2024 1st rd pick; Raptors get Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji

I don't really get this trade. The Jazz love their 1st rd picks and that's probably the right price for Olynyk, but Agbaji is still a nice young prospect and I don't see Kira Lewis as an upgrade. And what do they intend to do with Porter? As for the Raptors, what do they need Olynyk for? I like Olynyk but he's the kind of guy that can make a worthwhile contribution to a good team but isn't gonna do much to raise the level of a bad team, so are the Raptors just looking to tank the rest of the season, then flip Olynyk in the summer? Is that really worth a 1st rd pick? Agbaji should fit the new-look Raptor rotation but, again, not sure he's worth a 1st rounder, either (unless the Raptors presume this draft will suck). Can't help thinking that Porter and Olynyk are still on the move--and since the draft probably will suck, wouldn't the Jazz rather have Agbaji rather than Lewis and an anonymous draft pick? 

Kings get Robin Lopez, cash; Bucks get the rights to Dimitrios Agravanis

Another roster shuffle, as the Kings have already waived Lopez (hmmm, kinda thought the Kings could use Lopez). Don't know Agravanis....sounds Greek...pal of Giannis, I presume. Seems like this about the Bucks freeing up a roster spot for a buy out guy (hmmmm, kinda thought the Bucks could use Lopez). 

Mavs get Daniel Gafford; Wizards get Richaun Holmes

All the Wizards got was Richaun Holmes? Why didn't OKC offer slightly more and steal him away? I like Gafford, good rebounder, hard worker, a guy that busts his ass night in, night out. Not a star but the kind of role player pretty much every team could use (especially, say, the Thunder). Holmes is a nice veteran but he's hardly a long term addition for the Wizards, so they just wanted the fungible contract rather than a highly prized role player? Great trade for the Mavs, kinda shocked the Wizards couldn't do better than this for Gafford--not even a throw-in 2nd rounder? Jeez. 

Blazers get Dalano Banton; Celtics get 2nd rd pick

Banton had a moment last year with the Raptors where he kinda seemed like a guy, but I guess it was just an unexpected hot streak because nothing much ever happened with him again. The Celtics needed a roster spot but since the Blazers haven't waived him, perhaps they've got plans for Banton. 

Celtics get Jaden Springer; Sixers get 2024 2nd rd pick

Jaden Springer is why the Celtic moved on from Banton--and why they could afford to give away a 2nd rd pick. So basically this is a 3-way trade where the Sixers and the Blazers get nothing and the Celtics get the prospect they wanted all along. We'll see if Springer becomes something, if he can handle the ball then he'll get more of a chance with the Celtics than the Sixers, I suppose. But on the surface this just looks like the Celtics get the Blazers and Sixers to pay each other for the guy the Celtics wanted. 

Bucks get Patrick Beverley; Sixers get Cameron Payne

PatBev is one of those guys that people are irrational about. The idea that he makes the difference for the Bucks or the Sixers is laughable....that said....every time I've watched the Sixers this year, he's the one that stands out. So I can't imagine why the Sixers gave him away to a conference rival. Payne brings back a ball handler instead of a defensive presence but do the Sixers need that? I can't believe there wasn't more to this deal--why would the Sixers just give away a player to the team ahead of them in the standings? I guarantee Beverley was giving them more than Payne will, so what is up with this move? 

Nets get Dennis Schroder, Thaddeus Young; Raptors get Spencer Dinwiddie

Schroder is the kinda guy that can bring it when he's motivated but mails it in when he's not feeling it. In 2023's Euro championship, I thought Schroder was the MVP of the tourney--not Luka, not Jokic, not Markennen. And with the Lakers in the playoffs last year, I thought Schroder's defense was extremely underappreciated. But when he was with the Celtics a few years back--a team desperate for a PG--he barely paid attention and was clearly eager to get run out of town. Why? Likewise, the Raptors are a team desperate for a PG and yet night after night he brought not much to that team. Well, now he's going to another squad desperate for a PG and I can't help feeling that this is the best/last chance for Schroder to actually be a star--which I am convinced he can be if he really wants to. Will he ball out in Brooklyn? I doubt it, but we'll see. As for Young (already moved on to the Suns) and Dinwiddie (already moved on to the Lakers), I think they can be kinda useful in limited roles on playoff teams, we'll see if they get anything done in their new homes. 

Knicks get Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks; Pistons get Evan Fournier, Malachi Flynn, Quentin Grimes, Ryan Arcidiacano, 2028 2nd rd pick, 2029 2nd rd pick

Knicks bolster their bench with two reliable veteran shooters, both of whom are wildly underrated. The fact that the Knicks got both of these guys without giving up a 1st rd pick is remarkable. What happened to the Knicks? They look like a real organization for the first time since the Patrick Ewing days. As for the Pistons, well, I guess Grimes has a shot at becoming a rotation guy, but Arcidiacano is already gone, I assume Flynn will be waived at the first chance and Fournier is clearly not someone to build around. So Grimes and a coupla 2nd rd picks feels like not much for two vets all playoff teams could use. 

Mavs get PJ Washington, 2024 2nd rd pick, 2028 2nd rd pick; Hornets get Grant Williams, Seth Curry, 2027 1st rd pick

I love PJ Washington, he's on a great contract and he's a hungry that's never been on a good team--exactly the guy I'd love to add to a playoff roster. (So why didn't OKC go get this guy? And they facilitated the trade by offering a 1st rounder in a pick swap deal with the Mavs--why not just use that pick to go get Washington for the Thunder roster?) Clearly Grant Williams was not a successful signing, but still a reasonable enough addition for the Hornets, and Seth Curry was not really needed on a team with so much firepower (and now the Hornets can play the "we got a Curry!" game, worse ways to go). Weird trade but the Mavs end up with the guy they want (instead of the guy they don't want) and the Hornets shuffle the deck chairs and have an extra 1st round pick.

Thunder get Gordon Hayward; Hornets get Vasilijie Micic, Tre Mann, Davis Bertans, 2024 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick

Why did the Thunder do this? So instead of going to Charlotte and putting your assets out for Washington (and Nick Richards), they help Washington go to a conference opponent and get Hayward instead? Why....why....I don't get this at all. I like Micic and Mann, they'll both get run in the Hornets rotation, and even Bertans might get some time, too, since the Hornets have no need to win anything. I like OKC, they have drafted so well over the years that they can afford to give up on Micic and Mann, but to do that for Hayward makes no sense to me. 

Grizzlies get Chimezie Metu, Yuta Watanabe; Suns get Royce O'Neale, David Roddy; Nets get Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2028 2nd picks, 2029 2nd rd picks, the rights to Vanja Marinkovic

The Suns wanted a solid veteran perimeter defender and, in O'Neale, they got that. The rest is just a shuffling of little used players to similarly dusaty benches. I like Watanabe but hard to imagine he makes a difference in Memphis. Roddy was my favoire player in the NCAA tourney a coupla years back, but I think we can say he doesn't look to be a major star in the NBA. Bates-Diop is a servicable forward but the Nets already have a whole roster full of those. Metu and Goodwin have already waived. No idea who Marinkovic is, I suppose it is possible that he is the real jewel in this transaction. Well, the Nets got a fist full of 2nd round picks, that's something, I guess.

Sixers get Buddy Hield; Pacers get Furkan Korkmaz, Doug McDermott, 2024 2nd rd pick, 2029 2nd rd pick, cash; Spurs get Marcus Morris, 2029 2nd rd pick

Sixers get the shooter they needed in Hield, but unless Embiid returns, not sure it matters. Pacers get two guys they don't need or want and some 2nd rounders. Spurs get a Morris twin for no reason and a far off 2nd rounder. Feels like the Pacers should've done better for Hield--and why were they so desperate to trade him anyway? He has better value than what they got back. The Spurs get to move on from McDermott but what do they need Morris for? I dunno, this just looks like a big ol' waste of time. 

Nuggets get rights to Ishmael Kamagate; Clippers get cash

Okay. Do the Nuggets really like this guy or were the Clippers just extra desperate to get rid of him?

Pistons get Simons Fontecchio; Jazz get Kevin Knox, rights to Gabriele Procida, 2024 2nd rd pick

Fontecchio is a reasonable perimeter shooter, kinda had moments with the Jazz, not sure what kind of time he'll get with the Pistons. Jazz have already released Knox. I remember some hopeful talk of Procida in that draft. Interesting to see if the Jazz can bring Procida over next year. 

Waivings

Victor Oladipo (Grizzlies), Frank Ntilikina (Hornets), Ish Smith (Hornets), James Bouknight (Hornets), Robin Lopez (Kings), Harry Giles (Nets), Thaddeus Young (Nets), Cory Joseph (Pacers), Danilo Gallinari (Pistons), Danuel House Jr (Pistons), Joe Harris (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Spencer Dinwiddie (Raptors), Chimezie Metu (Grizzlies), RJ Hampton (Heat), Kevin Knox (Jazz), Jordan Goodwin (Nets), Furkan Korkmaz (Pacers), Kyle Lowry (Hornets), Ryan Arcidiacano (Pistons), Delon Wright (Wizards)

Hornets and Pistons clean house.

Signings (for the rest of the season)

James Johnson (Pacers), GG Jackson (Gizzlies), Keon Ellis (Kings), Lindy Waters III (Thunder), Spencer Dinwiddie (Lakers), Bismack Biyombo (Thunder), Kyle Lowry (Sixers), Thaddeus Young (Suns), Danilo Gallinari (Bucks), Delon Wright (Heat), Criag Porter Jr (Cavs), Duop Reath (Blazers), Jeremish Robinson-Earl (Pelicans)

Jackson has been balling out, looks like a great signing for the Grizzlies.

I think Dinwiddie can be really good off the Lakers bench. He can be the pretty good 2nd string playmaker (as long as he stays engaged) that the Lakers will need if they plan on making a run. 

Thunder needed rebounding and rim-protecting and that's pretty much all Biyombo can do, so he can be pretty good for them. (They could've traded for PJ Washington and Nick Richards and still signing Birombo....just sayin'....)

So the Sixers will use Lowry and Buddy Hield to stay afloat til Emibiid comes back? Meh, I guess it might work.

The Suns weren't old enough, they're gonna need Young's veteran presence. 

I don't see what Galinari gives the Bucks. He can shoot 3's but he's too slow to be effective on defense, hard to imagine he's a net benefit for this team. Well, the Bucks this year are built to outscore teams so I guess his lack of defense doesn't really matter (as long as he scores). 

Wright is a nice backup PG, the Heat always need depth. 

10 Day Contracts

Ashton Hagans (Blazers), Trey Jamison (Grizzlies), Taj Gibson (Knicks), Justise Winslow (Raptors), Mouhamadou Gueye (Raptors), Zhaire Smith (Cavs), Tosan Evbuomwan (Pistons), Jordan Goodwin (Grizzlies) 

Winslow is back! Man, when he fell to $#10 in the draft, I thought that would be a talking point for years to come. Not so much. 

2-Way Contracts

Alondes Williams (Heat), Mason James (Kings), Adam Flagler (Thunder)

Don't know. 

2023-24 Super Bowl LVIII

Chiefs 25-22 (OT) Niners

Some complained that this was a boring game but I was riveted throughout. Defense does not mean boring. The Niners looked great on the opening drive, I really think they were on their way to a TD but McCaffrey fumbled and that put a chill on the Niners that hung over them for the rest of the game. The Chiefs went 3-and-out on their first possession, something that hadn't happened in the Chiefs' last 8 (I think) playoff games, and it felt like we had a defensive grudge match on our hands, when it initially felt like it might be a scorefest.  

The Chiefs next possession drove deep, felt like they were going to the end zone, til Pacheco fumbled and now we were back to defensive sludge game. That's all right by me, man.  

The Niners finally got to the house on a nifty trick play where WR Jauan Jennings threw back across the field to McCraffrey for the TD. They had already scored an FG--the longest FG in Super Bowl history (well, until the next FG, which was KC scoring just before halftime to make it 10-3). The fact that the Niners only scored 10 points though they had way more offense was concerning, they needed more, they needed a bigger lead.  

The Chiefs got the ball after halftime, but Mahomes promptly threw an interception (looked to me like he had a high guy and a low guy, changed his mind too late, put the ball in between them for the easy pick), an uncharacteristic move. But up to this point that Chiefs had one nice pass play and that was pretty much the whole offensive output. I thought the 1st half would be a lot of passing to Kelce and running with Pacheco, but they didn't settle into that formula until the 2nd half.  

The Niners weren't able to capitalize, both teams were stung by untimely penalties that made 1st downs hard to come by. So both teams punted a lot. Good defense, but just as often it was offensive lapses that impeded progress. 

The real game changer was the muffed punt: the ball went off a Niner blocker, Chiefs recovered inside the red zone--a gift considering how little the Chiefs had moved the ball up to that point. The Chiefs quickly turned it into a TD (yes! That's how you do it: always throw at the end zone immediately after a turnover!) and suddenly they were up 13-10, though the Niners had kinda dominated the offense.  

The Niners came right back and regained the lead but they missed the extra point, which would loom large as the game continued. 

Both teams made big plays and both teams made crushing mistakes. Most of the crushing mistake were untimely penalties that forestalled a drive, but each team had bad turnovers, too. Both teams played well but neither played flawless. 

The Chiefs were able to tie it up, the game went to OT and here is where we get the main talking head talking point: the Niners gave the game away by taking the ball first in OT! I write this facetiously because as this is the first game in NFL history to be settled under these OT rules, no one knew what was going to happen next. Furthermore statistical analysis (not sure what there is to analyze, since this had never happened before, but mathematicians love to think math equals reality, so...), suggests that the odds are roughly 50.1 to 49.9, which is statistically irrelevant so still not sure the basis of anyone's pronouncements here, except that the Niners lost and therefore they did a stupid thing. The rationale, I suppose, is that if you go 2nd you know what you have to do; I have no idea why people think this is an advantage and if the Niners had scored a TD, then forced the Chiefs to go 4-and-out, these same people would be saying the Niners made the right move so....they key here is to ignore jugheads on the internet. 

I thought Shanahan was giving his defense a rest and that first drive in OT was pretty great and it might've ended in a TD if Chris Jones (the low key MVP of this game) hadn't thrown QB Purdy out of his rhythm, because he had Jennings coming open for the TD. Jones had another pressure like this earlier in the 4th quarter that prevented Purdy from connecting on a TD then, as well, so Jones basically single-handedly killed two Niners touchdowns.

As I said, both teams played good but not great. The Niners were probably actually the better team but they didn't put up enough points. That muffed punt changed the game and the missed extra point and the two Chris Jones stops kept the game in play for the Chiefs. And, well, Patrick Mahomes is the best in the business right now. The fact that he has the weakest receiver corps in his time in KC is all the more impressive! Mahomes has gone from youthful slinger with weapons downfield to thoughtful game manager who knows his defense is good enough to win games. That maturation is amazing. I never believed in the Chiefs throughout the playoffs, I only believed in Mahomes and along with Chris Jones making timely defensive plays, that was enough to win the Super Bowl. Amazing.  

It took me a while to write this and just yesterday the Niners fired the Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks, which strikes me as an unnecessary move. The Niner defense was pretty good in this game, although I thought it was shaky against the Packers and Lions in previous weeks, but someone needs to take the blame, I suppose, and Wilks and Shanahan had had their differences throughout the season. 

So pre-pre-pre-season pick for next year's Super Bowl. I feel like the AFC should be a lot better next year. The Jets will have healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Browns will have healthy Deshaun Watson, the Chargers should be rejuvenated by Coach Harbaugh, the Bengals will likely be out of their funk, the Pats will have a new QB, the Steelers look to be trading for QB Justin Fields to go with their still-good defense, the Jags will be back, the Raiders will likely be more consistent, the Texans have their offensive identity in place, so the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills will not have an easy march to the post-season. I had the Bengals to make the Super Bowl last year but they never really got going and then QB Burrow got hurt; I'll take the Bengals to bounce back.

In the NFC, the Packers are the team that impressed me most in the playoffs, they have their QB and their RB and their O-line was really great down the stretch, they've got a lot to work with. The Lions should be good again, the Cowboys won't suck (until the playoffs), the Eagles should still be pretty good top to bottom, the Bucs had moments (we'll see if they can build something on them), the Rams were pretty good when they wanted to be, the Commanders will have a new QB, the Falcons just need a QB, and the Niners will surely be back, too. If the Lions can keep the momentum going, it'd be great to see them have some actual success. 

I'll say Bengals-Lions is your next Super Bowl (yeah, we'll see if I still think that in August). 

2023-24 NFL Super Bowl (Predictions)

Conference Finals

Chiefs 17-10 Ravens

Well, the Ravens picked a bad time to play their worst game of the year, but I kinda saw it coming (but tried to ignore it), because the Ravens have benefitted immensely throughout the season from other people's mistakes instead of their own brilliance. I like Lamar Jackson, I'd say he is the deserving MVP, he had a hell of a season and that Ravens defense is really good--one of the greatest of all time? Well, no, but one of the better defenses of this season, absolutely. But still the Ravens have accrued most of their W's from other teams self-destructing as much as the Ravens getting it done. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs also have a great QB and one of the league's better defenses, so was this a match of evenly matched teams? Well, no. I'd still say the Ravens were a more complete team with a more reliable offense and more reliable defense. All they had to do was avoid the dumb mistakes and wait for the other team to falter--and as great as Mahomes is, he doesn't have that much to work with these days--so expecting the Ravens to win even while thinking they are a bit overrated does not seem like a crazy concept to me (indeed, I still had the Ravens winning and covering even though I've been skeptical of them all season). 

But, all that said, the Ravens sucked so bad in the 2nd half--and the Chiefs didn't hardly do anything--that it is kinda shocking that the Ravens made it this far. The Ravens couldn't sustain drives in the 1st half and found unique and interesting ways to sabotage their good drives in the 2nd half. But even with all that, the Ravens were still the better team and should've won--and probably even covered! 

The Chiefs started with 3 good drives that netted them 17 points and then....survived. Are the Chiefs good? The Dolphins were completely falling apart by the time the post-season arrived, the Bills defense was decimated and the Ravens kept shooting themselves in the foot over and over. My take that this team is just Mahomes, a so-so running game and a pretty good defense and nothing else is still intact.  

Lions 31-34 Niners

The Lions built up an impressive 24-7 lead at halftime, but then completely foundered in the 2nd half and outside of a garbage time TD, basically couldn't do anything right. Too bad because the 1st half Lions were easily the best of the 4 teams that played today. But they couldn't convert on 4th down (Reynolds!), gave up a miracle reception, gave away a particularly egregious fumble, couldn't convert on 3rd down (Reynolds!) and then chose to go for it on 4th down when tying the game with FG was clearly the better move. Look, coach, I love that you "believe" in your guys and you like to gamble--that's great! But is okay to "believe" in your kicker, too, and to gamble on a game-tying FG, too. 

As for the Niners, they started the game trying to ride McCaffrey and that kinda went nowhere. But in the 2nd half they rode Deebo Samuel and that was much more effective. Then they rode the momentum that the Lions just couldn't regain and, well, that was enough to move on from the NFC. The Niners all season long were pretty clearly the best team in football on both sides of the ball. But the Packers and Lions both stifled the mighty Niner defense and the offense came alive when needed but could've asserted more control (if you really think they're that good).  

Super Bowl

Niners (-1.5) @ Chiefs (o/u (47.5)

Okay, well, right off: after the Conference Finals I can't help thinking that a Ravens-Lions SB would've been a much invigorating game, but this is what we have. 

The Niners defense has looked pretty bad for a while now, can they stop Mahomes? The Chiefs made good use of TE Kelce before halftime against the Ravens, but I don't think the Niners will let that happen. I kinda think Kelce (aka "Mr. Swift") will be strangely non-existent in this match since the Niners clearly have the LB strength to take him out. But that should offer chances for the Chiefs WRs at the second level. If the Niner pass rush can re-emerge, then Mahomes will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this. But if he has time, I expect the WRs to get 1st downs. Mahomes is a genius, entirely up to the Niner pass rush to get going, but so far it seems like Mahomes is brilliant early but wears down as the game goes on. 

On the other side, QB Brock Purdy has a habit of starting slow, then making the right plays down the stretch. That might work against the Chiefs, if their offense diminishes after halftime, but I think it'd be much better if Purdy got going early. Last time, they leaned on McCaffrey early but had success going to Samuel, let's see if they feature Samuel out of the gate. The Chiefs D is good but the Niner offense should be dynamic enough to move the ball. If Purdy plays mistake-free, they should be much better than the Chiefs. But the Niners have played their worst football of the season in the last few weeks, are they gonna turn it around in time?

Okay, I've picked against Mahomes three straught weeks, am I dumb enough to do it again? Yes, I am. Because I think the Chiefs opponents have mostly self-destructed lately and I'm going to put my faith in the sheer depth of Niner talent to get the stops needed and to pressure Mahomes throughout. If so, the Niners could win easily. And, frankly, they better because if they let the Chiefs hang around, Mahomes has the magic to steal away the big game.

I agonized over this match for two weeks now, but suddenly it seems to me that this has the chance to be a Niner boat race. If they play their best game on both sides, they should be far superior to the Chiefs. I'm betting they put together the right plan and get the luck they need because the Chiefs offense just isn't the dynamic force it has been in recent years and as good as the Chiefs D is, the Niners have plenty of firepower on their offense. If Purdy plays mistake-free and either Samuel or McCaffrey bust loose, then the Niners should dominate this game. They haven't shown it lately, but I'm betting the Niners shine out here and control this game from start to finish (yeah, I know....Mahomes....). I see the Chiefs winning a close game but the Niners winning a blowout. 

I'll say Niners 34-17 (Niners and over).