2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after one round)

East

Pistons 93-79 Magic

Magic 94-116 Pistons

After getting killed at halftime of Game Five, the Pistons finally turned their game back on and left the Magic in the dust. The Magic have a nice collection of players (which is why ever year we think "this is the year for the Magic!"), but I've never quite understood how they fit together (which is why they've been disappointing for 3 straight years). The Magic blew out the Hornets in the play-in, then won 3 out of 4 against the Pistons, then took a mighty lead to halftime of Game Five....but it was a just a sugar rush, a rare moment when everyone got hot. They couldn't sustain it. I thought Wendell Carter was great for the first few games but he faded down the stretch, Desmond Bane had his moments, too, but not enough of them and Jarrell Suggs is additive on defense but everyone else has to be going for his efforts to really shine through. I have newfound respect for Paulo (Cade Jr.) Banchero, that kid is a monster, but he's just a kid and he didn't have enough around him. The Pistons, a strangely similar team as the Magic, have better veterans and had more sustained success all season long, and though they are still too one-dimensional, at least they know what their dimension is and get back to that model often enough to be a tough out going forward. 

Knicks 140-89 Hawks

Stop! They're already dead! Man, this one was over super fast. OG Anunoby single-handedly destroyed the Hawks in Game Six and everyone else did, too. The Hawks just couldn't get anything going, while the Knicks were scoring in every way possible. Knicks in 6 was about right the whole time, but they did scuffle from time to time and let the Hawks have the feeling that they had a chance. The Hawks are moving in the right direction, I think they finally have a proper core to build around, I still like the coach and they gave the Knicks some truly feisty moments. But they weren't ready for this series and the Knicks were. The Knicks finally took control in the last two games and stifled the upstarts. 

Celtics 93-106 Sixers

Sixers 109-100 Celtics

Somewhere in the 3rd quarter of Game Five, the Celtics just kinda gave up. In that match they overplayed Tatum and Brown, got away from their bench mob style they employed so real all season long and wanted to have a star contest, which led to Joel Embiid coming back from the dead and Jaysun Tatum going back to the injured list. I'm a big fan of Coach Mazzulo but, man, I put this loss on him: he did everything right all season long and then mixed it up going into the post-season and I don't understand why. The bench mob style was working and even if you think that can't go deep in the playoffs, it got you a 3-1 lead in the first round, why not stick to what's working? In the 4th quarter of Game Seven Jaylen Brown finally came alive and there was an opportunity for the Celtics to shoot their way to the next round, but it just didn't happen. I understand if you think you have to tighten up the rotation against the Knicks or Cavs but the open style they played all year long should've worked against the Sixers. As for the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey (the LEADER of this team!) was awesome, Paul George really turned it on in the last few games, I thought rookie VJ Edgecombe was up and down (the Sixers won his good games and lost his bad games), and they were able to get some quality offense out of Embiid. If they can keep their ultra-fast guards in tune with their slow-burn veterans, they could give the Knicks a scare.

Cavs 110-112 (OT) Raptors

Raptors 102-114 Cavs

In Game Six, I thought the Raptors had the game won, like, three different times, but then I thought the Cavs had it won three different times, too! I can't remember a game that went back and forth so late like that. I still thought the Cavs were the better team throughout and really should've finished it off in Game Six. For the Cavs to let this get a 7th game was a real head-scratcher. But the Raptors play hard and took the Cavs to 7 games without Immanuael Quickley or Brandon Ingram, but when Scottie Barnes (*) got into foul trouble in the 3rd quarter of Game Seven, that was pretty much it for Toronto. It was like taking the engine out of a car....it still has a radio, I guess, but its not much of a car. The Cavs felt their anuses tightening but James Harden and Donovan Mitchell were both able to skate through Game Seven without much consternation. Man, Barnes just works so f'n hard, he alone makes the Raptors a pain in the ass, if they could get some real help around him (I should admit at this point I'm not much of an RJ Barrett fan, big guy can make plays from time to time but when push comes to shove he's sloppy and in over his head), the Raptors might be a real contender in the East next year. As for the Cavs, they got good minutes from Dean Wade and Max Strus and there were moments when Evan Mobley really came alive, you can see the outline of a really good team here, we'll see if they can give the Pistons a shock.

West

Nuggets 98-110 Wolves

Jaden McDaniels! Donte DiVincenzo is out, Anthony Edwards is out, no problem, Jaden McDaniels will make up the difference. It felt like the Nuggets finally had their ducks in a row, felt like the best supporting cast they'd had in a while, but Christain Braun wasn't the answer, Cam Johnson was up and down and never really felt right in the rotation and Bruce Brown wasn't the same guy he was when they went on their championship run. Jamal Murray had maybe his best season but he was asked to do too much in the post-season and Nikola Jokic (another MVP season, I say) was just gassed at the end of these games and never felt in command the way he usually does. There's gonna be some serious soul-searching this summer in Denver, because it felt last summer like they'd finally figured it out....and they had not. As for the Wolves, hey man Rudy Gobert has ALWAYS been good against Jokic! And Julius Randall does not back down from any situation and they got good minutes from Naz Reid and Mike Conley and the rest of their rotation was ready for anything. This Wolves squad, assuming they got Edwards back soon, is gonna be a tough out for the Spurs. 

Lakers 98-78 Rockets

Man, as flimsy as the Lakers 3-1 lead felt in this series, in a year when 3-1 leads were going by the wayside, it still never felt like the Rockets were gonna get their shit together. I thought Coach Udoka was the right guy for this roster and I thought Kevin Durant was the right guy to add last summer, but it looks to me like those are the two dudes that kept this team from rising up. Coach Udoka just never found Jabari Smith's role and he never gave the keys to Reed Sheppard--dude, it doesn't matter if you don't like those guys, those are the guys you have! Coach never figured out how to build an offense with them. Instead he turned the team entirely over to KD, who was good enough to pile up stats but not good enough to lead a team to wins in the post-season. I still like most of what this roster has but, man, Durant has to go and I suddenly think the coach has to go, too, even though it wasn't that long ago they felt like the ideal guiding lights. This is Sengun's team, Thompson is the perfect right-hand man, but Jabari and Reed have to find their place on this squad and if they can't work them in, then this team will go nowhere. The Rockets don't need to re-build, they just need to re-think what they've got. As for the Lakers, Lebron, baby, still got it!

Quarterfinals

Cavs @ Pistons

The Cavs really should be the better team and while the Pistons don't play with frenzy the way the Raptors do, they will be more reliable scorers and defenders, which is gonna be just as hard for the Cavs to deal with. The Magic were young guns playing with house money and they caught the Pistons off guard, but the Pistons weathered the storm and are the better (version of the same) team, but the veteran savvy of the Cavs is a totally different matter. The Cavs and Pistons were just waiting for each other, but they both scuffled against younger, hungrier (if dumber) teams that made them each work in a way that feels depleting rather than invigorating. So who has more left in the tank? Well, the Pistons are still too one-dimensional and for all the praise being heaped on Tobias Harris, I thought he mostly sucked until Game Seven; but Harris the vet against the other vets, should probably be a more consistent scorer. Jalen Duren had troubles early on against Wendell Carter, but eventually managed to make the plays necessary; I kinda think against Evan Mobley, it'll be the other way around: Duren should have his way with Mobley early on, it is a matter of whether Mobley can swing the momentum (which is a 50/50 prospect). The supporting cast of the Cavs (Wade, Strus, Schroeder) actually strikes me as better than the Pistons supporting cast (Robinson, Thompson, Stewart, Huerter), but not wildly so and actually Thompson alone can reek the Raptors-style havoc that may pull the Cavs apart. To me this comes down to the Pistons one dimension (Cade Cunningham) versus the Cavs' two-headed monster (Donovan Mitchell, James Harden). If the Cavs can comfortably pass back responsibility and get buckets, they can win this series; but if they struggle then Cade's consistency can rule the day. Though I find the Pistons' one-dimensional-ness a liability, I think it's more reliable than the Cavs. I think the Pistons take this in 7.

Sixers @ Knicks

The Sixers found a potent mix of youthful energy (Maxey, Edgecombe) and veteran contemplation (George, Embiid) against the Celtics and were able to pull the better team apart. Can they do that to the Knicks? Well, the trick to the Knicks is: they will either pull themselves apart or they won't, the opponent doesn't much matter. I think the Knicks are better when Karl-Anthony Towns is aggressive, when Towns is the one setting the scene for the Knicks offense as opposed to Jalen Brunson, who I think is better as the emergency option, the change of pace guy that flips the script. Starting with Towns and moving to Brunson is their best bet, I think, because it gets the supporting cast open shots early on and then morphs them to crashing the boards and/or getting into transition defense. If their energy flows to getting everyone involved on offense first and then defense to close, that just strikes me as the best possible Knicks effort. The Sixers seem overly reliant on Embiid, babying him along early in the game, hoping they can get something out of him later on. To me, this is Maxey's team, you let Maxey figure out the best way to utilize Embiid and just trust that model. That said, Embiid has been effective and if he starts hitting his 3's, then it might really stretch the Knicks defense out of shape, allowing room for Edgecombe to tear shit up. I think the best version of the Knicks is better than the best version of the Sixers, but the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Sixers will probably be better than whatever the Knicks collapse into. It is important for the Knicks to control these games and I think they will, but I think the Sixers are offbeat enough to make them work. I like Knicks in7

Lakers @ Thunder

I didn't watch a single minute of the Thunder over the Suns. On the one hand, I haven't seen them so I don't know what they look like; on the other hand, I didn't have to watch them, which suggests they're doing just fine and I know exactly what that looks like. The Thunder are the most low-key colossus of my lifetime: they don't rush, they don't fret, they don't dominate, they're just better than you. They don't make dumb mistakes and they don't panic. (**) Are they better than the Lakers? Absolutely! The Lakers have been without Luka Doncic so far in the post-season, I presume he'll be returning soon. The rest of the squad had a nice little run against the Rockets, a perfect team-building exercise, where Hachimura had moments, Luke Kennard looked damn good at times, Austin Reaves stretched his legs after some time off and Deandre Ayton is steadily becoming what they want him to be. And Lebron is still a  maestro. If I'm the Lakers, I'd like to give this iteration of the team a couple games before bringing back Luka. I want to see if this new team concept can really find the gumption to surprise the Thunder in Game One (not impossible). Then we see how OKC reacts, then the Lakers can bring back Luka in Game Three (if he's ready). Then it becomes Luka's team again but ideally with a period of everyone figuring out their best contribution. Meh, its worth something like a shot. I like this Lakers squad, they're playing pretty good and if OKC falters or has some weird out of body experience, I think this Laker team is the kind of team that can rise to the occasion. But I don't think OKC will falter much, they've played well against the Lakers over the years, I don't think they're afraid of Luka or Lebron or the Laker aura. In fact I think they see the Lakers as exactly the kind of team they can finish off pronto. I like the Thunder in 5. 

Wolves @ Spurs

An interesting one. The Spurs are probably a year ahead of schedule, the Wolves have made back-to-back Final Fours. Veteran savvy or youthful exuberance? I like the Spurs, obviously everyone credits Wemby, and he's due some flowers. But I think this is De'Aaron Fox's team and the real marginal growth is coming from Stefon Castle. At this point, Wemby is still just a bonus, which is why they're a year early (***). What is the relationship between Wemby and Gobert? Who has whose number in that matchup? Don't know yet, but we're gonna find out. Losing Divencenzo is a real heart breaker for the Wolves and if Edwards misses significant time, then this is probably a wrap. But if Edwards can counter Fox and McDaniels can muzzle Castle, then this is a real series. Who do the Spurs have to match up with Julius Randle? Randle is the wild card, it feels like the other matchups will neutralize each other, so it is up to Randle to shoot the Wolves into (or out of) the next round. I think the Spurs aren't quite ready, I think Gobert is playing really well right now and gonna take it to Wemby, I think Edwards, McDaniels and Randle can overpower Fox and Castle. I like the Wolves in 6.

(*) How do we get Scottie Barnes and Paulo Banchero together? Or Barnes with Cade and a Thompson twin? Dear God.....

(**) When I first sat down to do my MVP evaluation, I didn't even have Shai Gilgeous in my top 10. This is largely because OKC is so well-balanced that SGA doesn't have to go above and beyond all that often, SGA doesn't have to bust out and put up big numbers because the team beyond him can easily make up for an off night. On the other hand, the team has the luxury to go off from time to time because their leader is so poised and consistent that he makes things easy for everyone else. So is SGA the MVP because he's so slyly awesome or is he not because his supporting cast makes it easy for him? What a beautiful conundrum for OKC to have. 

(***) Oh and if Dillon Harper becomes next year's blow up guy for the Spurs, that means they'll be able to keep Wemby on a pitch count for another year. This isn't even Wemby's team yet--and probably won't be for two more years! Wemby is still just icing, they don't even need him to be cake for another year or two!

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 5 games)

East

Pistons 105-113 Magic

Pistons 88-94 Magic

Magic 109-116 Pistons

Okay, with the Magic up 3-1 after 4 games, a complete re-evaluation is in order. The Pistons were the top seed in the East but we all knew they were too one-dimensional; the Magic has a nice batch of talent but this was another season of mediocrity and chaos behind the scenes. Of the play-in teams, the Magic felt the LEAST likely to test the Pistons. The Magic stole Game One, okay that happens. The Pistons rebounded in Game Two as expected. But back in Orlando, the Magic came alive and kinda easily handled the #1 seed in back to back outings. Again, the Magic have nice talent, no doubting that, but Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner have never been a good match, their coach seems like a weirdo and the bench is nothing special. Felt like the Pistons had been exposed as too thin. Jalen Duren has been getting worked by Wendell Carter (and by his girlfriend on TikTok), Tobias Harris has been underwhelming when the Pistons really need him to be the veteran scorer, Duncan Robinson has moments then disappears, Daniss Jenkins had been a fine discovery off the bench but he seems to have vanished, Kevin Huerter has been injured. That thin bench just keeps looking thinner (oh, and Caris LaVert has been utterly useless, I don't think he's playable). 

I thought the Pistons had turned a corner and the Magic had not. After 5 games, it feels like the other way around. For the Magic, Banchero has been great, Carter has been great, Suggs has been crazy active (but slightly foul prone), and the injury to Wagner hasn't set them back at all. Personally, I still think the Pistons are gonna get this done. I think Cade is the star of this match up and the Magic have already overacheived. The down side is no matter how this turns out, I'm gonna feel bad for the loser: either the Pistons let a great season and #1 seed slip away or the Magic gack up a 3-1 lead (which would pretty much spell the end of their beleaguered coach). Either way, YIPES!

I gotta go with Pistons in Game Six and Seven. I still think they're the better team and Cade has been doing it by himself all year long, shouldn't matter now. 

Celtics 108-100 Sixers

Celtics 128-96 Sixers

Sixers 113-97 Celtics

The Celtics have been the better team throughout this match until Game Five when the Sixers resurrected Joel Embiid and gave their offense an entirely different feel, which inexplicably threw off the Celtics. Embiid was pretty good in the 2nd half, but there was still no reason for the Celtics to let this one get away, they were doing just fine until they just stopped playing midway through the 3rd quarter. Rather then utilizing their very effective bench, they overplayed Brown and Tatum and let Embiid set the tempo....why? I can't help but feel like Coach Mazzulo wanted to go back to Philly. 

Both teams are better on the road, so my guess is the Celtics will finish this is Game Six. For the Celtics it's all about the 3-point shooting, if they can find their range again, this series will over pronto. 

Knicks 108-109 Hawks

Knicks 114-98 Hawks

Hawks 97-126 Knicks

The Knicks are the better side, the Hawks are nice but nothing special, both of the Hawks wins were by a combined 2 points and the only thing keeping them afloat is CJ McCollum's heat check. For the Knicks, OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl Anthony Towns has been good when he's attacking, Jalen Brunson has taken over when needed and Josh Hart has been additive on defense (and not much on offense). Mikael Bridges has been  kinda awful and the rest of the bench has yet to add much, but the Knicks are the better team and they should've finished this off by now. The Hawks are setting up nicely for next season, but I don't see them moving on to the next round. The Knicks cruised in the last two games, I expect them to win in Game Six. 

Cavs 104-126 Raptors

Cavs 89-93 Raptors

Raptors 120-125 Cavs

This series has been a slog because Scottie Barnes has been playing his ass off. The Cavs still seem like the better team and when they've gotten their offense moving, they've won rather easily. Game Five struck me as where this series will go from here: both teams traded baskets for 3 quarters, then the Raptors went cold down the stretch. If it's a shooting contest, gotta go with the Cavs. But the Raptors work hard and sludge up everything, so this could go seven games, but I still think the Cavs are the better team.  

West

Thunder 121-109 Suns

Thunder 131-122 Suns

I didn't watch one second of this series, don't think I even saw any highlights. Saw the Suns complaining about the refs and people still trying to pretend like the Thunder are "villains". Whatever.

Spurs 120-108 Blazers

Spurs 114-93 Blazers

Blazers 95-114 Spurs

The Blazers had a good season, Dani Avdija busted out, the rotation feels like its ready to take another step forward (and will be welcoming Dame Lillard back next season); unfortunately their brand new owner seems like a cheapskate, he's already low balling their interim coach when he's already likely to be one of the lowest paid coaches in the league (he had a good year, hire him already, good gawd!). That said, the Spurs are better, deeper and already ready to take a step forward. The Spurs had a bit of scare when Wemby went down hard and missed a game and half due to concussion. But even still the Blazers couldn't take advantage and this was over in 5 (like we all knew it would be).

Nuggets 96-113 Wolves

Nuggets 96-112 Wolves

Wolves 113-125 Nuggets

Okay, this was already set to be a bare knuckle brawl. Then in Game Three the Wolves lost Donte DiVincenzo in the first minute and Anthony Edwards just a few minutes later. The Nuggets....lost anyway, because Aaron Gordon is just not 100% right now and the rest of the supporting cast just isn't as good as we thought they would be. The Wolves were up 3-1 after 4 but without two of their main guys. So who's more injured? The Wolves only need 1 more victory but they're missing their best player (and then hopefully would get Edwards back in the next round), while the Nuggets need (now) 2 more wins but they're missing their third best player. The Wolves better win it tonight in Minneapolis or they will be kicking themselves all summer. 

Lakers 112-108 (OT) Rockets

Lakers 96-115 Rockets

Rockets 99-93 Lakers

The Rockets never found any consistency all year long, were playing like shit down the stretch, fell behind 3-0 to the Lakers and then ruled out Kevin Durant (....with an injury? What injury?). Didn't feel like it was going well for them but they did bounce back in the last two games and have some momentum and identity going back home for Game Six and the Lakers are still without Luka Doncic (but have returned Austin Reaves). I think this one is going to Game Seven, but I gotta go with the Lakers to finish it back home. 

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 2 games)

East

Magic 112-101 Pistons

Magic 83-98 Pistons

The Magic's surprisingly effective performance in Game One was not as shocking as all that. The Magic rallied through the play-on game and kept it rolling against a Piston squad that hasn't played a meaningful game in weeks--hey, good for them. I had Pistons in 5 and I'm sticking with that pick. In Game Two, the Pistons slunked through the 1st half and then blew the game open right out of halftime and I think that's more representative of the dynamic between these two teams than Game One. The Magic had a nice bubble but I think that's over, I expect the Pistons to be the better team for the next three games. 

Sixers 91-123 Celtics

Sixers 111-97 Celtics

The Sixers taking Game Two was eye-opening but their speed (specifically Maxey and Edgecombe) has the power to overwhelm anyone at any time and I can see them winning another game or two but I still think the Celtics are the better, deeper team and will get through this series. But I'm open to the idea that the Sixers can put a shock into the Celtics (though I still think they're better without Embiid). 

Hawks 102-113 Knicks

Hawks 107-106 Knicks

I thought the Knicks weren't very good in Game One and still won rather easily. I didn't think they're very good in Game Two, either, but were on their way to an easy win when the Hawks suddenly came alive and stole it. I thought this series would be hotly contested and go seven games and I still think that. The Hawks are a nice team but when push comes to shove, the Knicks still have more options to get a win than the Hawks do. 

Raptors 113-126 Cavs

Raptors 105-115 Cavs

The Raptors are a nice team but without Immanuel Quickley they just a man short of keeping up with the Cavs. Quickley may return in Game Three and I would give the Raptors a puncher's chance in the next two games. But not really beyond that. Getting a little push might be a good thing for the Cavs--it might be even better if they just show up and take the next two on the road. The Raptors could still get hot, the Cavs could turn funky, but I doubt it. I think the Cavs will wrap this up fairly quick.  

West

Suns 94-119 Thunder

Suns 107-120 Thunder

Yawn! Devin Booker complaining about the refs after getting thoroughly spanked in the first two games is kinda embarrassing. I hope for the Suns' sake that OKC just finishes this in four, it'll be so much easier for everyone involved. 

Blazers 96-111 Spurs

Blazers 106-103 Spurs

The Blazers just couldn't hang in Game One and frankly were the lesser team in Game Two. But when Wemby went out with a concussion (no word on his availability going forward, but I suspect he'll be out for Game Three), the Blazers were able to spark that into a victory. I like the Blazers but even without Wemby, I think the Spurs are probably the better team. They're both young, so this could still go either way--and without Wemby I don't think anyone would see this as a glorious upset, more just an unfortunate showing for a Spurs team that is probably already a year ahead of schedule anyway. This is an interesting series, was gonna be a fun watch either way but if the Spurs have to do this without Wemby, it'll be a hell of a test for them--and it wouldn't be a shock if the Blazers move on to the next round. 

Wolves 105-116 Nuggets

Wolves 119-114 Nuggets

Even though the Nuggets have a better supporting cast than they've had in a while, they are still too reliant on Jokic and Murray, who both looked gassed in the 4th quarters of these games. Jokic's shooting hasn't been great, while the Wolves seem to be rounding into shape. I had the Nuggets making the final four, but the Wolves could tip this one over real quick in the next two games (and if Wemby can't make it back....dang, man, it could be the Wolves in the final four again).

Rockets 98-107 Lakers

Rockets 94-101 Lakers

Yipes! The Rockets look like absolute shit. The Lakers aren't even doing anything and they cruised in these first two games. The Rockets offense is just not good--Coach Udoka: it really doesn't even matter if you don't like Reed Sheppard, he's all you've got! Udoka's inability to find a groove with Sheppard is killing this team. And--okay, I'll be that guy--Kevin Durant's one man show isn't helping either. They've got to root out the depth of this lineup to find a way to move on and relying on Durant to do everything just isn't gonna get it done. Meanwhile, the Lakers are resting their two best scorers and have encountered no obstacle whatsoever. I thought the Rockets would find themselves in the post-season and I was wrong. Unless Sengun takes over, this team is not gonna win a single game. 

2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

East

Heat 126-127 (OT) Hornets

I was curious to see if the underachieving Heat (right? I mean they're supposed to be better than 10th in the East, right?) could give it to the overachieving Hornets (right? I mean the Hornets have sucked for so long that finishing 9th in the East is worth hanging a banner, right?). The Hornets had a stretch around the all-star break where they were arguably the best team in the league, while Miami had one of their weird injury-plagued, funky rotation seasons. Miami has at least been here before, while the Hornets haven't been anywhere in a long long time. Well, it was a fun game. I can't even count how many times the Heat bungled this game in regulation and again in OT. But bungle it they did and LaMelo streaked from end to end to sneak a buzzer beater layup and a W. (*) So the Heat got bounced and the Hornets get to keep playing. 

Magic 97-109 Sixers

The Magic have had such a woeful offense all year (well, for a few years now), that I can't say that I was surprised by this result. Philly's speed alone would outscore the Magic. So Philly are headed to Boston as your #7 seed and the Magic are headed back to Orlando for a second chance.

Hornets 90-121 Magic

If Bam finishes out the first game in Charlotte, don't you think Miami gives Orlando a much rougher time than the Hornets did? Well, I sure think so. This one was over quick as Charlotte just sorta forgot to show up. The Magic were hitting on all cylinders--something they rarely do!--and this match was a laugher long before halftime. (**) 

(8) Magic @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Pistons in 5)

The Pistons took a leap this season behind a for-real MVP season by Cade Cunnigham. Worth remembering that when Cade got hurt (collapsed lung) near the end of the season, the team rallied without him and held on to the #1 seed. Dang, that was impressive--I totally wrote off the Pistons at that moment. I love a good youth movement squad and though it was about time for Cade to blow up, I was skeptical of the Pistons for most of the season because they just seem too one-dimensional, not enough depth, not enough seasoning, not sure about the coach. But the way they carried on when their leader went down showed me something. And the horrible offense of the Magic is not likely to perturb the Pistons. Now the Hornets could have given the Pistons a struggle, the Heat might've outworked them, the Sixers speed surely would've had them reeling....but the Magic? No worries. I think the Pistons will cruise into the 2nd round. 

(7) Sixers @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

The Sixers are Tyrese Maxey's squad now (and Edgecombe's, too). The idea that they need Joel Embiid to carry them was always fanciful (full disclosure: I was never an Embiid guy), but now it seems downright lunacy to think they need Embiid. Quite the opposite! I think they're better off without him. That said, either way, I think the Celtics are well disciplined, deep and they have played so hard, so well, all season long, I don't see any reason why the Sixers would interrupt them. I think the Celtics mail in one game in Philly (I would bet it's Game Four) and then wrap it up back in Boston. 

(6) Hawks @ (3) Knicks (I'll take Knicks in 7)

This should be a good one. The Knicks are a nice team but I thought they wildly overachieved last year: beat the Pistons in 6--but were the lesser team in all 6 games!, beat the Celtics in 5--but were the lesser team in all 5 games!, fell to the Pacers, who were the better team throughout. People lost their minds when they fired Coach Thibodeau but I thought it was the right move (***). They have a nice collection of talent but they are a weird fit and sometimes that offense becomes standing around watching Brunson go to work (there are worse ways to go). If the Knicks ever find their rhythm, they could be the best team in the league; but until they do, they're actually quite vulnerable to falling prey to a hard working squad that knows who they are. Are the Hawks that squad? They've definitely had moments of feeling that way since they finally got out from under the Trae Young cloud (whose greatest NBA success came when he single-handedly stomped the Knicks in the playoffs a few years back). The Hawks have fallen a bit from their peak this season but if they can get back to that, they can sting this Knicks team. But I think in the end, Brunson will have a monster Game Seven and drag the Knicks into the 2nd round. 

(5) Raptors @ (4) Cavs (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(Sitting here watching Game One, but it hasn't really changed my thinking) The Raptors are a nice squad that are unfortunately overpaid and therefore seem like a disappointment when actually they are a nice squad. The Cavs added James Harden, which should center their offense, allowing Donovan Mitchell to be more additive rather than load-bearing. The Cavs have been kinda disappointing this season but I think they've been waiting for the post-season and they'll tighten up from here. I like the Raptors and they're frisky on the road, but they're just not as deep or reliable as the Cavs. 

West

Blazers 114-110 Suns

Interesting game. Both teams made wild swings back and forth, so the Suns are down by 12, suddenly they're up by 8--and vice versa. Normally a close game stays within a range of 4-6 points with each team going slightly back and forth, but this one had big runs by both teams. And here, the Blazers made the last big run and held off the Suns. I was kinda surprised because it seems to me that all season long the Suns have been the team that beat the teams they should beat and loses to the teams they should lose to; now this sounds rather basic but I assure you, the NBA doesn't work that way. Everybody has good night and bad night, good stretches and bad stretches, but the Suns this year were pretty consistent all year long, they didn't have a lot of upsets nor did they suffer a lot of upsets. So....the Blazers are better than the Suns (at home), right? I can dig it. The Blazers are an interesting team that had a good thing going by season's end. 

Warriors 126-121 Clippers

Everyone will remember this as the Clippers falling apart and Steph Curry as the big hero. But what I saw was Al Horford getting buckets down the stretch and the Clippers being unprepared for points from the scrubs. The Clippers should've won, they were the better team for most of this match, but the Clippers gon' Clip.

Warriors 111-96 Suns

The Warriors were never really in this game. Their philosophy is keep the game close and let Steph go nuts down the stretch. But Steph never warmed up and the Warriors couldn't keep up. Draymond was able to get Devin Booker ejected by the end but I thought that was bull shit! If the ref wanted to warn them both, that's fine; if he wanted to just toss Draymond, that's fine; but the game had already re-started, Booker was literally dribbling the ball when the ref stopped play to throw them both out. I didn't like the call and I still don't. Draymond is a great player but, god, what an annoying dick! The good news is that his season is over. 

East 1st round

(8) Suns @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 5)

I like the Suns, as I said I think they've played to their competition as well as any team I've seen in eons. Well, the Thunder are way better than the Suns, so I don't see the Suns winning too many games. The Thunder have been murdering people all season long (that's two season in a row, if you're paying attention) and I don't see the Suns standing in their way. 

(7) Blazers @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Spurs in 6)

The Spurs blew up this season because Wembyama decided he was ready to play (though he was still clearly on a pitch count all year long--does that continue in the playoffs?) and because the supporting cast around him was a little better than everyone thought they'd be. I'm not surprised the Spurs were good, but even I thought it was a little early for them to get to 2nd place in the vaunted West. The Blazers have been down for a while but with the emergence of Dani Avdija, the Blazers looked as good as they have in a while. Is Donovan Clingen enough to slow down Wemby? Can Avidja and Shaedon Sharpe match the wing scoring of Fox, Castle and Harper? As much as I like the momentum of the Blazers, I think the answer to both of those questions is "no". I like the Blazers to make the Spurs work--everyone should be pissed that the Spurs will have to get better rather than just cruising into the next round--but I just don't see the Blazers outscoring the Spurs more than once or twice in a 7-game series. 

(6) Wolves @ (3) Nuggets (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Gonna be a fun one.  These two have played a few times over the years with some crazy-town results. I think the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while (****), while the Wolves feel like they're sleepwalking. Are the Wolves just biding their time til the playoffs? They can tell themselves that but I don't think the Wolves were better this year in any way than the previous year and that's not a good sign. I still think the series goes 7 but I can't shake the notion that the Nuggets are waaaaaaay better than the Wolves.

(5) Rockets @ (4) Lakers (I'll take Rockets in 6)

Coupla different thoughts on this one: if Luka and Austin Reeves aren't available for the Lakers, than this will be over quickly. But if it is even strength (which is what I'm counting on), I think the conventional wisdom is that the Rockets are sluggish and weird while the Lakers are rounding into shape and looking good at the right time. But I'm gonna throw in a curve ball: I think the Rockets are not built for the regular season; not that their talent is just waiting til the bright lights come on, but that the squad as a whole isn't at their best until they come up against a singular opponent to focus on. Playing the same team 7 times in a row should actually help the Rockets. And I think it will. I think the Rockets will be better in the post-season (meaning this Western conference playoffs are gonna be freakin' awesome).

I think I'll come back between rounds and re-do all my predictions, but for giggles I'll go ahead and play the rest of the playoffs out here and now. 

Eastern Conference Semifinals

(4) Cavs @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(3) Knicks @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

Western Conference Semifinals

(5) Rockets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

(3) Nuggets @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Eastern Conference Finals

(4) Cavs @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 6)

Western Conference Finals

(3) Nuggets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

NBA Finals

Celtics @ Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

The Thunder have been the best team all year long. The Spurs have been breathing down their necks and shown a notable confidence against the Thunder, but I don't think they're ready to move on in the playoffs just yet, one last heartbreak is what Wemby needs to become a true killer. As for the Thunder, they are just casually better than everyone even if they never quite feel dominant. This Spurs team has come real far, real fast but they still have to beat Jokic and rejuvenated Murray in the playoffs and are we sure they're ready to do that? (I am not) I love where the Spurs are going, but they're not there just yet. Can the Thunder beat the Nuggets? They can and I think they will.

That the Celtics should've mailed this season in was a pretty popular opinion last summer. They had just lost Jaysum Tatum to a gruesome season-long injury, traded away Holliday and Porzingis, let Al Horford and Luke Kornet walk, felt like they'd be replacing too much of their rotation to have a shot; but I was dubious at the time (losing Horford, Porzingis and even Holliday was not much of a loss, indeed moving from noisy veterans was probably addition by subtraction). And while I'm not shocked the Celtics were actually really good this year, I am shocked how much better than the Knicks, Cavs and Magic they were--and how quickly Jaysun Tatum came back from injury ready to rock. It'll be a weird ride into the playoffs for the Celtics, but at this moment I think they're the best team in the East. 

(*) Oh, and LaMelo clearly maliciously grabbed Bam Adebayo's ankle and forced him out of the game in the 1st quarter and...well....nobody seemed to care. I was puzzled by this in the moment and still puzzled a few days later. So, we're just injuring dudes now and nothing happens? So, we're Rollerball now?

(**) Want to know why the Hornets made such an impressive leap this regular season? Because in last year's draft they added, Kon Knueppel, Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner, who all played major minutes for this team. They added three impact rotational guys that beefed-up their depth and all from rookie contract players. Wanna know why they got bounced in the play-in? Same reason. Rook don't win in the post, yo.

(***) Quick question: when was Coach Thibs EVER good? All I see is a guy that runs players into the ground, destroys teams and never goes deep in the playoffs. What am I missing?

(****) I was planning on doing my NBA season awards in the same post as my post-season predictions, but I'm double checking my number-crunching, really marinating in the stats this year, so my awards post won't be til later. I say all this to suggest that....I think Jokic is my MVP (again) and Jamal Murray is not gonna be far off. So when I say the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while, what I mean is that Jokic and Murray BOTH may be better than ever. We'll see how it goes. 

2025-26 Champions League Quarterfinals (2nd leg)

Quarterfinals 2nd Leg

Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona (agg 3-2)

Wow!  I figured Barca would come out swinging, so I was not too surprised when they scored in the 5th minute (though the bad giveaway in Atletico's defensive half was a bit odd).  Not surprised, either, when Barca tied up the aggregate just a few minutes later, on some crazy action in front of the goal. But I was pleasantly surprised when Atletico responded before halftime and re-took the lead.  (Interesting that the refs missed rather obvious corner kicks for each team, either or both really could've shaken up this match--both sides were balling out in the 1st half). In the 2nd half, I thought Atletico was the better side, felt just as dangerous on the attack and even tighter in the back. I thought the off-sides call that negated what would've been the tying goal for Barca was the right call, but I thought the red card on the defense a little later on was a bit much (the other defender was right there and the contact was a foul but not a dangerous play or anything). I knew Barca would be back in this game, knew this was gonna be a good one. Seeing Atletico go through feels like the better team won.  

Liverpool 0-2 Paris SG (agg 0-4)

Yeah, Liverpool just never got anything going in either leg. They held out as long as they could, PSG didn't seal it til relatively late in the 2nd half. But, Liverpool had no attack at all, so its not like there was much chance of them tying it up. PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, Liverpool is a nice squad but they just don't have the firepower to hang with this loaded PSG squad. 

Bayern Munich 4-3 Real Madrid (agg 6-4)

What a great match! Back and forth action throughout, both teams were dangerous at all times, tons of goals, and capped off by one of the most cold-blooded goals I've ever seen! Bayern is back, man! They've been good-but-just-not-there for a few years now but they seem to have shed whatever was ailing them--and they seem to have pawned it off on Real Madrid. Real is still really really good but this year's model is snakebit: bounced in the Copa del Rey (in the round of 16!), quarters in the Champions League (to rejuvenated Bayern Munich), and a distant 2nd in La Liga (to Barca), where they have a ton a of head scratching finishes this season. Gonna be a struggle of a summer in Madrid (well, not on the Atletico side of town).

Arsenal 0-0 Sporting CP (agg 1-0)

Sporting is rugged, man, nothing comes easy against these guys. But they also don't sport much of an attack, so not surprising that Arsenal was able to make their one goal (their one moment of brilliance in 180 minutes against Sporting) hold up. Tricky now, though: Sporting made for such a weird competitor, it's kinda hard to tell how good Arsenal is. 

Semifinals

Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich

This is your final right here. I think PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, I think Bayern is the 2nd best team--and arguably playing even better right now. PSG better get a decisive result at home because going back to Munich is not gonna be much fun this year. *popcorn munch*

Atletico Madrid - Arsenal 

Atletico had to go against well-known foe (Barcelona), while Arsenal went up against a scrappy batch of nobodies (Sporting CP), so.....which is the better team? On the one hand, it's easy to say that Arsenal probably would've fallen to Barcelona; on the other, I can totally see Sporting CP giving Atletico Madrid the fight of their lives. So....which is the better team? I have no idea. My gut says Atletico has been playing harder and finding more success this season but Arsenal is right there with them....so which is the better team? I look forward to finding out. 

2026 Masters

Could Rory go back to back?

Well, he sure dominated the shit out of the first two days at Augusta, holding the largest lead ever after the 2nd round. He was nothing special on day three, still in the lead but with the peloton coming in his rearview. On Sunday, Rory (like last year) fumbled early and the lead was gone almost instantly; but (like last year) he settled in and played a competent, if rather vanilla front 9.  He was back to the top of the totem pole fairly quickly and even though there were nips at his heels, he clamped down on the back 9 (unlike last year, when he stumbled badly across the midway point, only to rally into a playoff). There was action all day Sunday, plenty to keep an eye on, but looking back on it, Rory was pretty comfortable for the last 2 hours of this match. 

Rory did indeed dominate Thursday and Friday, I think it's notable that none of the dudes that spent on time on the leaderboard with Rory, managed to catch on Saturday or Sunday. Burns and Reed hung around and finished well, but don't remember either of them on Sunday. 

Sunday was Scheffler, Rose, Young, Hatton, Henley, Morakawa, Schauffle and Spieth.  

Scottie Scheffler was pretty good on Thursday, not so good on Friday and then killed it Saturday and Sunday to end up in 2nd (though I don't recall him ever in first at any point). Felt like Scheffler wasn't up for it this year, but that's just how damn good he is that this looked like he was sucking. This dude is one of the all time great ballers I've ever seen, he's as cool and ready to win and play to the end m'f'ers I've ever seen. Feels weird to anoint him this quickly and I'm by no means some huge golf guy, but I've been watching it since I was a kid, I've seen all the golfers. Tiger was the flat out most winningest dude I ever saw and though Scheffler isn't quite the unstoppable robot that prime Tiger was, but he also doesn't malfunction the way Tiger would from time to time. He's going to end up with a ton of top 5 finishes at Majors, I'm guessing.

Justin Rose was steady good all the way through, killed in on the front 9 on Sunday, then bogeyed 11 and 12 and it zapped him, he just wasn't the same down the stretch. Had a hell of a tournament, he was good all four days, just needed to be a little better at the end, he might've stolen himself a jacket. 

I don't even know who Cam Young is, but he was pretty fascinating on Sunday, some crazy ups and downs for that guy.  

Tyrell Hatton was up and down: great on Friday and Sunday, mediocre on Thursday and Saturday. He hit some great shots, all good on Sunday, just couldn't catch Rory's lead. 

Russell Henley went nuts on Saturday and Sunday, never got high enough up the leaderboard to catch my eye, he was a late riser. Good finish. 

Morakawa, Schauffle and Spieth were sneaky fun to watch on Sunday, nice highlights.  

I like Rory, I'm not enough of a golf nerd to really get into the weeds of the fanboy subcultures around these players (punk rock had rabbit holes, I'm sure the PGA Tour does, too), but Rory seems like an okay joe to me. Hell of a shooter in his youth, wandered in the wilderness for a bit and is now firmly back at the top of the mountain. Joins Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger as the only back to back winners at the Masters. Good for him, he deserves to be remembered with the all-timers. 

2025-26 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich

Wonderful soccer! Both teams were dangerous all the way through, Bayern was able to finish right before half and then again right after, but Real never went away, back and forth action and Madrid was able to claw back a goal. Over the last few years, Bayern has been close but they just haven't been themselves lately--they're starting to look like the old Bayern again. Real is strong, they can be frisky on the road, but I think Bayern finishes this back home. Ought to be a classic either way. 

Sporting CP 0-1 Arsenal

Arsenal's goal came in the 90th minute, Havertz finds the hole in the defense, expertly takes down the pass and sneaks it past the keeper. Whew! The whole match long I was thinking the Arsenal was the better team, the more confident in possession, but Sporting just keeps coming, they never let up, and if I was an Arsenal fan I'd sure feel better with a goal on the road. Didn't feel like that goal was coming, but they snuck one in at the last minute and I think Arsenal's looking pretty good going back home. That said, Sporting is relentless, they don't know how to stop, so Arsenal should coming out looking to add to that lead. 

Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid

Just not Barca's day, seemed like every promising attack went awry, unlucky bounces on defense, goofy red card, Atletico just kinda did whatever they wanted on this day. They'll probably regret not scoring more because I doubt Barca will be this bad in the return match. Atletico's looking good but I wouldn't count out Barca just yet.  

Paris-St. Germain 2-0 Liverpool

Liverpool's press defense was rugged for about 10 minutes--didn't feel like PSG was ever gonna cross midfield! But PSG did, got into the box, scored a weird-looking goal and that was that. Liverpool never got any offense going, PSG thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. I suppose Liverpool has a puncher's chance back at home, but PSG is clearly the better team and with a two goal advantage, I'd be pretty surprised if Liverpool gets 'em back.