2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

East

Heat 126-127 (OT) Hornets

I was curious to see if the underachieving Heat (right? I mean they're supposed to be better than 10th in the East, right?) could give it to the overachieving Hornets (right? I mean the Hornets have sucked for so long that finishing 9th in the East is worth hanging a banner, right?). The Hornets had a stretch around the all-star break where they were arguably the best team in the league, while Miami had one of their weird injury-plagued, funky rotation seasons. Miami has at least been here before, while the Hornets haven't been anywhere in a long long time. Well, it was a fun game. I can't even count how many times the Heat bungled this game in regulation and again in OT. But bungle it they did and LaMelo streaked from end to end to sneak a buzzer beater layup and a W. (*) So the Heat got bounced and the Hornets get to keep playing. 

Magic 97-109 Sixers

The Magic have had such a woeful offense all year (well, for a few years now), that I can't say that I was surprised by this result. Philly's speed alone would outscore the Magic. So Philly are headed to Boston as your #7 seed and the Magic are headed back to Orlando for a second chance.

Hornets 90-121 Magic

If Bam finishes out the first game in Charlotte, don't you think Miami gives Orlando a much rougher time than the Hornets did? Well, I sure think so. This one was over quick as Charlotte just sorta forgot to show up. The Magic were hitting on all cylinders--something they rarely do!--and this match was a laugher long before halftime. (**) 

(8) Magic @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Pistons in 5)

The Pistons took a leap this season behind a for-real MVP season by Cade Cunnigham. Worth remembering that when Cade got hurt (collapsed lung) near the end of the season, the team rallied without him and held on to the #1 seed. Dang, that was impressive--I totally wrote off the Pistons at that moment. I love a good youth movement squad and though it was about time for Cade to blow up, I was skeptical of the Pistons for most of the season because they just seem too one-dimensional, not enough depth, not enough seasoning, not sure about the coach. But the way they carried on when their leader went down showed me something. And the horrible offense of the Magic is not likely to perturb the Pistons. Now the Hornets could have given the Pistons a struggle, the Heat might've outworked them, the Sixers speed surely would've had them reeling....but the Magic? No worries. I think the Pistons will cruise into the 2nd round. 

(7) Sixers @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

The Sixers are Tyrese Maxey's squad now (and Edgecombe's, too). The idea that they need Joel Embiid to carry them was always fanciful (full disclosure: I was never an Embiid guy), but now it seems downright lunacy to think they need Embiid. Quite the opposite! I think they're better off without him. That said, either way, I think the Celtics are well disciplined, deep and they have played so hard, so well, all season long, I don't see any reason why the Sixers would interrupt them. I think the Celtics mail in one game in Philly (I would bet it's Game Four) and then wrap it up back in Boston. 

(6) Hawks @ (3) Knicks (I'll take Knicks in 7)

This should be a good one. The Knicks are a nice team but I thought they wildly overachieved last year: beat the Pistons in 6--but were the lesser team in all 6 games!, beat the Celtics in 5--but were the lesser team in all 5 games!, fell to the Pacers, who were the better team throughout. People lost their minds when they fired Coach Thibodeau but I thought it was the right move (***). They have a nice collection of talent but they are a weird fit and sometimes that offense becomes standing around watching Brunson go to work (there are worse ways to go). If the Knicks ever find their rhythm, they could be the best team in the league; but until they do, they're actually quite vulnerable to falling prey to a hard working squad that knows who they are. Are the Hawks that squad? They've definitely had moments of feeling that way since they finally got out from under the Trae Young cloud (whose greatest NBA success came when he single-handedly stomped the Knicks in the playoffs a few years back). The Hawks have fallen a bit from their peak this season but if they can get back to that, they can sting this Knicks team. But I think in the end, Brunson will have a monster Game Seven and drag the Knicks into the 2nd round. 

(5) Raptors @ (4) Cavs (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(Sitting here watching Game One, but it hasn't really changed my thinking) The Raptors are a nice squad that are unfortunately overpaid and therefore seem like a disappointment when actually they are a nice squad. The Cavs added James Harden, which should center their offense, allowing Donovan Mitchell to be more additive rather than load-bearing. The Cavs have been kinda disappointing this season but I think they've been waiting for the post-season and they'll tighten up from here. I like the Raptors and they're frisky on the road, but they're just not as deep or reliable as the Cavs. 

West

Blazers 114-110 Suns

Interesting game. Both teams made wild swings back and forth, so the Suns are down by 12, suddenly they're up by 8--and vice versa. Normally a close game stays within a range of 4-6 points with each team going slightly back and forth, but this one had big runs by both teams. And here, the Blazers made the last big run and held off the Suns. I was kinda surprised because it seems to me that all season long the Suns have been the team that beat the teams they should beat and loses to the teams they should lose to; now this sounds rather basic but I assure you, the NBA doesn't work that way. Everybody has good night and bad night, good stretches and bad stretches, but the Suns this year were pretty consistent all year long, they didn't have a lot of upsets nor did they suffer a lot of upsets. So....the Blazers are better than the Suns (at home), right? I can dig it. The Blazers are an interesting team that had a good thing going by season's end. 

Warriors 126-121 Clippers

Everyone will remember this as the Clippers falling apart and Steph Curry as the big hero. But what I saw was Al Horford getting buckets down the stretch and the Clippers being unprepared for points from the scrubs. The Clippers should've won, they were the better team for most of this match, but the Clippers gon' Clip.

Warriors 111-96 Suns

The Warriors were never really in this game. Their philosophy is keep the game close and let Steph go nuts down the stretch. But Steph never warmed up and the Warriors couldn't keep up. Draymond was able to get Devin Booker ejected by the end but I thought that was bull shit! If the ref wanted to warn them both, that's fine; if he wanted to just toss Draymond, that's fine; but the game had already re-started, Booker was literally dribbling the ball when the ref stopped play to throw them both out. I didn't like the call and I still don't. Draymond is a great player but, god, what an annoying dick! The good news is that his season is over. 

East 1st round

(8) Suns @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 5)

I like the Suns, as I said I think they've played to their competition as well as any team I've seen in eons. Well, the Thunder are way better than the Suns, so I don't see the Suns winning too many games. The Thunder have been murdering people all season long (that's two season in a row, if you're paying attention) and I don't see the Suns standing in their way. 

(7) Blazers @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Spurs in 6)

The Spurs blew up this season because Wembyama decided he was ready to play (though he was still clearly on a pitch count all year long--does that continue in the playoffs?) and because the supporting cast around him was a little better than everyone thought they'd be. I'm not surprised the Spurs were good, but even I thought it was a little early for them to get to 2nd place in the vaunted West. The Blazers have been down for a while but with the emergence of Dani Avdija, the Blazers looked as good as they have in a while. Is Donovan Clingen enough to slow down Wemby? Can Avidja and Shaedon Sharpe match the wing scoring of Fox, Castle and Harper? As much as I like the momentum of the Blazers, I think the answer to both of those questions is "no". I like the Blazers to make the Spurs work--everyone should be pissed that the Spurs will have to get better rather than just cruising into the next round--but I just don't see the Blazers outscoring the Spurs more than once or twice in a 7-game series. 

(6) Wolves @ (3) Nuggets (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Gonna be a fun one.  These two have played a few times over the years with some crazy-town results. I think the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while (****), while the Wolves feel like they're sleepwalking. Are the Wolves just biding their time til the playoffs? They can tell themselves that but I don't think the Wolves were better this year in any way than the previous year and that's not a good sign. I still think the series goes 7 but I can't shake the notion that the Nuggets are waaaaaaay better than the Wolves.

(5) Rockets @ (4) Lakers (I'll take Rockets in 6)

Coupla different thoughts on this one: if Luka and Austin Reeves aren't available for the Lakers, than this will be over quickly. But if it is even strength (which is what I'm counting on), I think the conventional wisdom is that the Rockets are sluggish and weird while the Lakers are rounding into shape and looking good at the right time. But I'm gonna throw in a curve ball: I think the Rockets are not built for the regular season; not that their talent is just waiting til the bright lights come on, but that the squad as a whole isn't at their best until they come up against a singular opponent to focus on. Playing the same team 7 times in a row should actually help the Rockets. And I think it will. I think the Rockets will be better in the post-season (meaning this Western conference playoffs are gonna be freakin' awesome).

I think I'll come back between rounds and re-do all my predictions, but for giggles I'll go ahead and play the rest of the playoffs out here and now. 

Eastern Conference Semifinals

(4) Cavs @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(3) Knicks @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

Western Conference Semifinals

(5) Rockets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

(3) Nuggets @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Eastern Conference Finals

(4) Cavs @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 6)

Western Conference Finals

(3) Nuggets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

NBA Finals

Celtics @ Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

The Thunder have been the best team all year long. The Spurs have been breathing down their necks and shown a notable confidence against the Thunder, but I don't think they're ready to move on in the playoffs just yet, one last heartbreak is what Wemby needs to become a true killer. As for the Thunder, they are just casually better than everyone even if they never quite feel dominant. This Spurs team has come real far, real fast but they still have to beat Jokic and rejuvenated Murray in the playoffs and are we sure they're ready to do that? (I am not) I love where the Spurs are going, but they're not there just yet. Can the Thunder beat the Nuggets? They can and I think they will.

That the Celtics should've mailed this season in was a pretty popular opinion last summer. They had just lost Jaysum Tatum to a gruesome season-long injury, traded away Holliday and Porzingis, let Al Horford and Luke Kornet walk, felt like they'd be replacing too much of their rotation to have a shot; but I was dubious at the time (losing Horford, Porzingis and even Holliday was not much of a loss, indeed moving from noisy veterans was probably addition by subtraction). And while I'm not shocked the Celtics were actually really good this year, I am shocked how much better than the Knicks, Cavs and Magic they were--and how quickly Jaysun Tatum came back from injury ready to rock. It'll be a weird ride into the playoffs for the Celtics, but at this moment I think they're the best team in the East. 

(*) Oh, and LaMelo clearly maliciously grabbed Bam Adebayo's ankle and forced him out of the game in the 1st quarter and...well....nobody seemed to care. I was puzzled by this in the moment and still puzzled a few days later. So, we're just injuring dudes now and nothing happens? So, we're Rollerball now?

(**) Want to know why the Hornets made such an impressive leap this regular season? Because in last year's draft they added, Kon Knueppel, Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner, who all played major minutes for this team. They added three impact rotational guys that beefed-up their depth and all from rookie contract players. Wanna know why they got bounced in the play-in? Same reason. Rook don't win in the post, yo.

(***) Quick question: when was Coach Thibs EVER good? All I see is a guy that runs players into the ground, destroys teams and never goes deep in the playoffs. What am I missing?

(****) I was planning on doing my NBA season awards in the same post as my post-season predictions, but I'm double checking my number-crunching, really marinating in the stats this year, so my awards post won't be til later. I say all this to suggest that....I think Jokic is my MVP (again) and Jamal Murray is not gonna be far off. So when I say the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while, what I mean is that Jokic and Murray BOTH may be better than ever. We'll see how it goes. 

2025-26 Champions League Quarterfinals (2nd leg)

Quarterfinals 2nd Leg

Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona (agg 3-2)

Wow!  I figured Barca would come out swinging, so I was not too surprised when they scored in the 5th minute (though the bad giveaway in Atletico's defensive half was a bit odd).  Not surprised, either, when Barca tied up the aggregate just a few minutes later, on some crazy action in front of the goal. But I was pleasantly surprised when Atletico responded before halftime and re-took the lead.  (Interesting that the refs missed rather obvious corner kicks for each team, either or both really could've shaken up this match--both sides were balling out in the 1st half). In the 2nd half, I thought Atletico was the better side, felt just as dangerous on the attack and even tighter in the back. I thought the off-sides call that negated what would've been the tying goal for Barca was the right call, but I thought the red card on the defense a little later on was a bit much (the other defender was right there and the contact was a foul but not a dangerous play or anything). I knew Barca would be back in this game, knew this was gonna be a good one. Seeing Atletico go through feels like the better team won.  

Liverpool 0-2 Paris SG (agg 0-4)

Yeah, Liverpool just never got anything going in either leg. They held out as long as they could, PSG didn't seal it til relatively late in the 2nd half. But, Liverpool had no attack at all, so its not like there was much chance of them tying it up. PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, Liverpool is a nice squad but they just don't have the firepower to hang with this loaded PSG squad. 

Bayern Munich 4-3 Real Madrid (agg 6-4)

What a great match! Back and forth action throughout, both teams were dangerous at all times, tons of goals, and capped off by one of the most cold-blooded goals I've ever seen! Bayern is back, man! They've been good-but-just-not-there for a few years now but they seem to have shed whatever was ailing them--and they seem to have pawned it off on Real Madrid. Real is still really really good but this year's model is snakebit: bounced in the Copa del Rey (in the round of 16!), quarters in the Champions League (to rejuvenated Bayern Munich), and a distant 2nd in La Liga (to Barca), where they have a ton a of head scratching finishes this season. Gonna be a struggle of a summer in Madrid (well, not on the Atletico side of town).

Arsenal 0-0 Sporting CP (agg 1-0)

Sporting is rugged, man, nothing comes easy against these guys. But they also don't sport much of an attack, so not surprising that Arsenal was able to make their one goal (their one moment of brilliance in 180 minutes against Sporting) hold up. Tricky now, though: Sporting made for such a weird competitor, it's kinda hard to tell how good Arsenal is. 

Semifinals

Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich

This is your final right here. I think PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, I think Bayern is the 2nd best team--and arguably playing even better right now. PSG better get a decisive result at home because going back to Munich is not gonna be much fun this year. *popcorn munch*

Atletico Madrid - Arsenal 

Atletico had to go against well-known foe (Barcelona), while Arsenal went up against a scrappy batch of nobodies (Sporting CP), so.....which is the better team? On the one hand, it's easy to say that Arsenal probably would've fallen to Barcelona; on the other, I can totally see Sporting CP giving Atletico Madrid the fight of their lives. So....which is the better team? I have no idea. My gut says Atletico has been playing harder and finding more success this season but Arsenal is right there with them....so which is the better team? I look forward to finding out. 

2026 Masters

Could Rory go back to back?

Well, he sure dominated the shit out of the first two days at Augusta, holding the largest lead ever after the 2nd round. He was nothing special on day three, still in the lead but with the peloton coming in his rearview. On Sunday, Rory (like last year) fumbled early and the lead was gone almost instantly; but (like last year) he settled in and played a competent, if rather vanilla front 9.  He was back to the top of the totem pole fairly quickly and even though there were nips at his heels, he clamped down on the back 9 (unlike last year, when he stumbled badly across the midway point, only to rally into a playoff). There was action all day Sunday, plenty to keep an eye on, but looking back on it, Rory was pretty comfortable for the last 2 hours of this match. 

Rory did indeed dominate Thursday and Friday, I think it's notable that none of the dudes that spent on time on the leaderboard with Rory, managed to catch on Saturday or Sunday. Burns and Reed hung around and finished well, but don't remember either of them on Sunday. 

Sunday was Scheffler, Rose, Young, Hatton, Henley, Morakawa, Schauffle and Spieth.  

Scottie Scheffler was pretty good on Thursday, not so good on Friday and then killed it Saturday and Sunday to end up in 2nd (though I don't recall him ever in first at any point). Felt like Scheffler wasn't up for it this year, but that's just how damn good he is that this looked like he was sucking. This dude is one of the all time great ballers I've ever seen, he's as cool and ready to win and play to the end m'f'ers I've ever seen. Feels weird to anoint him this quickly and I'm by no means some huge golf guy, but I've been watching it since I was a kid, I've seen all the golfers. Tiger was the flat out most winningest dude I ever saw and though Scheffler isn't quite the unstoppable robot that prime Tiger was, but he also doesn't malfunction the way Tiger would from time to time. He's going to end up with a ton of top 5 finishes at Majors, I'm guessing.

Justin Rose was steady good all the way through, killed in on the front 9 on Sunday, then bogeyed 11 and 12 and it zapped him, he just wasn't the same down the stretch. Had a hell of a tournament, he was good all four days, just needed to be a little better at the end, he might've stolen himself a jacket. 

I don't even know who Cam Young is, but he was pretty fascinating on Sunday, some crazy ups and downs for that guy.  

Tyrell Hatton was up and down: great on Friday and Sunday, mediocre on Thursday and Saturday. He hit some great shots, all good on Sunday, just couldn't catch Rory's lead. 

Russell Henley went nuts on Saturday and Sunday, never got high enough up the leaderboard to catch my eye, he was a late riser. Good finish. 

Morakawa, Schauffle and Spieth were sneaky fun to watch on Sunday, nice highlights.  

I like Rory, I'm not enough of a golf nerd to really get into the weeds of the fanboy subcultures around these players (punk rock had rabbit holes, I'm sure the PGA Tour does, too), but Rory seems like an okay joe to me. Hell of a shooter in his youth, wandered in the wilderness for a bit and is now firmly back at the top of the mountain. Joins Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger as the only back to back winners at the Masters. Good for him, he deserves to be remembered with the all-timers. 

2025-26 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich

Wonderful soccer! Both teams were dangerous all the way through, Bayern was able to finish right before half and then again right after, but Real never went away, back and forth action and Madrid was able to claw back a goal. Over the last few years, Bayern has been close but they just haven't been themselves lately--they're starting to look like the old Bayern again. Real is strong, they can be frisky on the road, but I think Bayern finishes this back home. Ought to be a classic either way. 

Sporting CP 0-1 Arsenal

Arsenal's goal came in the 90th minute, Havertz finds the hole in the defense, expertly takes down the pass and sneaks it past the keeper. Whew! The whole match long I was thinking the Arsenal was the better team, the more confident in possession, but Sporting just keeps coming, they never let up, and if I was an Arsenal fan I'd sure feel better with a goal on the road. Didn't feel like that goal was coming, but they snuck one in at the last minute and I think Arsenal's looking pretty good going back home. That said, Sporting is relentless, they don't know how to stop, so Arsenal should coming out looking to add to that lead. 

Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid

Just not Barca's day, seemed like every promising attack went awry, unlucky bounces on defense, goofy red card, Atletico just kinda did whatever they wanted on this day. They'll probably regret not scoring more because I doubt Barca will be this bad in the return match. Atletico's looking good but I wouldn't count out Barca just yet.  

Paris-St. Germain 2-0 Liverpool

Liverpool's press defense was rugged for about 10 minutes--didn't feel like PSG was ever gonna cross midfield! But PSG did, got into the box, scored a weird-looking goal and that was that. Liverpool never got any offense going, PSG thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. I suppose Liverpool has a puncher's chance back at home, but PSG is clearly the better team and with a two goal advantage, I'd be pretty surprised if Liverpool gets 'em back.   

2026 NCAA (Final Four and Final)

(3) Illinois 62-71 (2) Connecticut

UConn made more shots than Illinois. Sounds rather basic but it felt to me like both teams were getting shots, getting the offense they wanted to get, UConn converted more than Illinois did and that was about it. I think UConn is the most puzzling team of recent times: they're right there every year and I generally don't understand why. I don't see anything special about UConn at all, don't understand how they did so well this season or in this tourney. If Illinois just knocks down some shots, I think they would've won and I feel like I could say that about most of UConn's opponents. I dunno, I just don't understand why they've had so much success.  

(1) Michigan 91-73 (1) Arizona

I thought this one was gonna be a classic but, no, Michigan pretty much shut them down from beginning to end. Arizona had a burst about 10 minutes into the 1st half where they tied it up, but that was the end of that. Michigan ran off before haltime and buried them rather easily in the 2nd half. I was blown away by Arizona's scoring potential against Purdue, thought it would translate to Michigan, but no it did not. I'd be kinda shocked if Michigan didn't mop the floor with UConn.

(2) Connecticut 63-69 (1) Michigan

A rather unsatisfying game. Michigan was the better team but they never could extend their lead or really dominate the action, so UConn hung around even though they weren't really shooting all that well. The refs were letting them on beat on each other so the stretch run of the game was a lot of fouls, replays, clumsy play. I thought Michigan should've pounded UConn and looking back on it....they absolutely should have pounded UConn. But Michigan had their own shooting woes and the style of the refs just slowed everything down and kept giving UConn chances. The Huskies couldn't take advantage of the opportunities but it still made for a sludgy game where the better team felt bridled, instead of unleashing an all-timer of an ass-whippin'. Wolverines are your champs! They really were the best team all through the tourney, one of the best of the regular season, a well put-together collection of length and speed. I doubt this team even hit their peak this season--they could've absolutely demolished the Final but the game itself slowed them down. 

2026 NCAA Tournament (Elite 8)

Games I watched (some of):

(9) Iowa 59-71 (3) Illinois

Iowa started hot, just couldn't keep up the offense. Illinois is a grinding team, not the most talented but gonna be a tough out. 

(2) Purdue 79-64 (1) Arizona

Wow, Arizona just took Purdue apart. Never felt like the Boilermakers were even in this game. Arizona scores all over the place, I think they're looking pretty good. 

Didn't see:

(2) Connecticut 73-72 (1) Duke

All I saw was literally the final 10 seconds or so, the entire play where Duke gacks it up on the full court press and UConn drains a 35 footer at the buzzer to win it. Duke dominated the 1st half, felt like they were cruising all through the 2nd half, then suddenly with 10 seconds left the game was actually on the line. Man, I love watching Duke lose, they come up with some interesting ways to do it. 

(6) Tennessee 62-95 (1) Michigan

Not even close, over quick. Michigan just stifles all comers.

2026 NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16)

Games I watched (some of): 

(11) Texas 77-79 (2) Purdue

I thought Texas was the better team for most of the game, but Purdue got late buckets and UT faltered, so the Boilermakers are moving on. Too bad for the Longhorns, this was a winnable game for them. Purdue is a nice team but I suspect this is as far as they go. 

(9) Iowa 77-71 (4) Nebraska

Nebraska got off to a hot start--and if they could've kept it going, they would've won easily. But as the game wore on, their shooting completely fell off. Iowa is gonna be a tough out: they play as a unit, they don't really rely on anyone to do anything, they're all in lockstep and as Nebraska peaked and faded, Iowa just steadily played their game and got the W.

(3) Illinois 65-55 (2) Houston

This Houston team didn't have the depth that they've had in recent years. Illinois was able to control possessions and had more offense all the way through. 

(5) St. John's 75-80 (1) Duke

The two teams were pretty even but in the final minutes, Duke had the star power and St. John's didn't. Sound simplistic but Duke made the plays in the final handful of possessions and St. John's just couldn't keep up. The first 39 minutes, though, were pretty even--maybe St. John's was even a little better. 

(4) Alabama 77-90 (1) Michigan

Back and forth all through the 1st half, even at the break. I felt like Michigan's ability to keep the scoring going would be better than Alabama's, and I was right. The Wolverines are good at every position and the depth just won out over the Tide.

(6) Tennessee 76-62 (2) Iowa State

I thought UT was just flat out better than Iowa State. Iowa State just suffered a major injury, but even still I was surprised how easy it looked for the Vols to control the match. 

The ones I missed: 

(4) Arkansas 88-109 (1) Arizona

I missed this one though it felt like the marquee match of the round. Arizona held the lead pretty much throughout and steadily piled on after halftime. This Arkansas team was nice, felt like they had everything they needed but never really took command in any way. Arizona is one of those casually good teams that might be staggeringly better than everyone else or they may get stomped in the next match--hard to tell.

(3) Michigan State 63-67 (2) Connecticut

UConn jumped out to an early lead, seemed like the whole rest of the game was Michigan State chipping away. chipping away, but then coming up just short. The Spartans are a nice defensive squad, but their offense was always kinda suspect and when they got behind early, it didn't feel like they would make up the gap. I don't get this UConn squad, I can't tell if they're any good or not.