The big news since my last entry is that Jabari Parker (Bucks) has blown out his knee and is done for the year. I think I speak for all true basketball fans when I say: damn. That kid was good and he was contributing right away to a team that was on the rise. Terrible loss for the Bucks, they were seriously eye-balling a playoff spot in the East, that's gonna be tougher to pull off without Parker's minutes. No Joel Embiid, no Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon hasn't played in over a month, and now no more Jabari Parker. Sucks.
Also this is where Minutes Per Game becomes a tricky stat. I'd been using Julius Randle (14.0) as my benchmark. Perhaps I'll move on to pure Minutes Played to gauge which rookies are maintaining their impact.
The amount of rookies that have debuted this year is up to 63, adding Furkan Aldemir (Sixers) and Johnny O'Bryant (Bucks) getting some of Parker's minutes.
Top 22 in minutes played: Wiggins (Wolves), Payton (Magic), Parker (Bucks), Noel (Sixers), Bogdanovic (Nets), McDaniels (Sixers), LaVine (Wolves), Papanickolau (Rockets), Napier (Heat), Exum (Jazz), Mirotic (Bulls), Ingles (Jazz), Rudez (Pacers), Black (Rockets), Stauskas (Kings), Ennis (Heat), Hood (Jazz), Anderson (Spurs), Hairston (Hornets), Wear (Knicks), Harris (Cavs), Smart (Celtics). (#23 Doug McDermott (Bulls) is out with an injury, that seems a good place to stop)
I reckon (barring injury) Wiggins, Payton and Noel will finish top 3 in Minutes Played and should all be top 5 in MPG. (Parker's 29.5 MPG will surely finish in the top 5) ROY looks to be Wiggins' to lose now. Payton is exciting to watch but turns the ball over and hasn't shown a propensity to get W's and Noel is a good defender but will probably be a project offensively for a while. Wiggins, on the other hand, knows who he is and his rookie year will be Wiggins getting his reps and coming back stronger. With all the depth of this draft, its hard not to see Wiggins and Parker as the two most exciting players going forward. I'd like to see Wiggins getting more than 1.3 assists per game, his 1-2 asst to turnover rate is not good though the rest of his numbers and the eye test on his defense are promising.
LaVine is climbing fast in his Minutes and his MPG. The Wolves are loving their new rookie PG, how will he fit in when Rubio comes back? Does this make Rubio expendable? Does anyone want Rubio? (Now that the Mavs have Rondo, probably not)
Smart missed some time with injuries, I suspect he'll be in the top ten of Minutes and MPG by the end of the year. Without Rondo, there's nothing keeping Smart from getting plenty of minutes. And if/when Aaron Gordon starts playing again, he'll go back to getting good minutes in the Magic rotation.
I expect Mirotic to keep getting good minutes because he is pretty good at everything, the kind of all-round player the Bulls live on.
Otherwise, it seems like all these guys are on an established glide path for production.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Thoughts on a (former) rumor
The buzz is that Rajon Rondo (along with a large trade exception) is going to the Dallas Mavericks for Jameer Nelson, Brandon Wright, Jae Crowder, a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.
First thought: I don't like it for the Mavs. The Mavs currently have the highest rated offense in the league, how much better does Rondo make that offense? I say none He'll take the ball out of Monta Ellis's hands without giving any FT or outside shooting. Dallas is not a great defensive team, how much better does Rondo make them? I say none. I always thought (Kentucky fan here, I've watched his WHOLE career) Rondo was overrated on defense: he gets steals by a combination of over pursuing the backside and slacking on fronting the ball.
Wright is shooting at a phenomenal percentage and is the only big guy off the bench on the team and Nelson is exactly the veteran presence the Mavs needed. Some of the stats thrown out as Mavs PG needs are illusory: Mavs PG are last or near the bottom in the FG%, points per game and assists per game. So what? They get their scoring from the SG (Ellis) and their PF (Dirk) with everyone else just pitching in; Rondo won't help the % or the PPG anyway--and he'll get his assists to the consternation of Ellis. And his rebounding, which has always been great for a PG, won't replace Brandon Wright's production, so I see NO upside to this move for the Mavs. The Mavs offense is based on moving the ball around whereas Rondo is a slowdown ball hog.
What does this do for the Celtics? They save a little money, they throw a coupla more draft picks onto the pile and they have now freed themselves the headache of not resigning Rajon Rondo. With the addition of Wright, they can now try even harder to trade off Brandon Bass. The addition of Nelson gives them an affordable steadying force for Marcus Smart. I assume Jae Crowder will get waived.
Going forward, Dallas now has to find a big man to replace Wright (what's Emeka Okafor's phone number?) and presumably they'll max Rondo this summer. Considering they'll want to re-sign Tyson Chandler too, I think that's too much money for an aging (overrated) ball hogging PG.
The Mavs are the #1 offense in the league, why the need for the shake up? Is this truly an improvement? I say its not, I think the Mavs overpaid for a guy they don't really need and they're going to overpay even more next year. The Mavs are currently sitting at 7th in the West, I don't see them finishing any higher than 5th with or without Rondo. Not a good move, Mavs.
First thought: I don't like it for the Mavs. The Mavs currently have the highest rated offense in the league, how much better does Rondo make that offense? I say none He'll take the ball out of Monta Ellis's hands without giving any FT or outside shooting. Dallas is not a great defensive team, how much better does Rondo make them? I say none. I always thought (Kentucky fan here, I've watched his WHOLE career) Rondo was overrated on defense: he gets steals by a combination of over pursuing the backside and slacking on fronting the ball.
Wright is shooting at a phenomenal percentage and is the only big guy off the bench on the team and Nelson is exactly the veteran presence the Mavs needed. Some of the stats thrown out as Mavs PG needs are illusory: Mavs PG are last or near the bottom in the FG%, points per game and assists per game. So what? They get their scoring from the SG (Ellis) and their PF (Dirk) with everyone else just pitching in; Rondo won't help the % or the PPG anyway--and he'll get his assists to the consternation of Ellis. And his rebounding, which has always been great for a PG, won't replace Brandon Wright's production, so I see NO upside to this move for the Mavs. The Mavs offense is based on moving the ball around whereas Rondo is a slowdown ball hog.
What does this do for the Celtics? They save a little money, they throw a coupla more draft picks onto the pile and they have now freed themselves the headache of not resigning Rajon Rondo. With the addition of Wright, they can now try even harder to trade off Brandon Bass. The addition of Nelson gives them an affordable steadying force for Marcus Smart. I assume Jae Crowder will get waived.
Going forward, Dallas now has to find a big man to replace Wright (what's Emeka Okafor's phone number?) and presumably they'll max Rondo this summer. Considering they'll want to re-sign Tyson Chandler too, I think that's too much money for an aging (overrated) ball hogging PG.
The Mavs are the #1 offense in the league, why the need for the shake up? Is this truly an improvement? I say its not, I think the Mavs overpaid for a guy they don't really need and they're going to overpay even more next year. The Mavs are currently sitting at 7th in the West, I don't see them finishing any higher than 5th with or without Rondo. Not a good move, Mavs.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Game of the Week
(This game was from Dec 9...uhh, little late getting this up. Did the work, just forgot write it up)
Nuggets at Raptors (-10)
The Nuggets (9-11. 11th in the West) have a great and unique home court advantage that gives them a reason to compete. But in a tough Western Conference they look pretty mediocre. They've got a lot of 'nice' players but lack that one guy that makes it all work. Occasionally a rotation like that sneaks wins but usually it gets bested in the 4th quarter and this Nuggets team falls squarely in the latter group. There's enough intriguing talents to go with the home court advantage to assume they'll be okay but probably not playoff-worthy (indeed, that combo probably makes them trade bait-worthy). In the West good is not good enough so you gotta figure a nice East Coast road trip is exactly what the Nuggets need to get some easy W's, right? Nope: @Hawks, @ Wizards, @Raptors in 4 days--doh! Good luck with that. Man, even the easy part of their schedule is letting them down this season. Mediocre teams need all the extra luck they can get...and this ain't it.
The Raptors (15-5, 1st in the East) hit the ground running this year, just like I thought they would. They've got good starting talent, a nice looking bench and they rounded into shape right at the end of the year, going down in the playoffs to the Paul Pierce-led Nets (words you won't read ever again, I bet). I believe we haven't seen the best of the Raptors, even though DeRozan is out til the All-Star break apparently, they should have the depth to survive in the East. I predicted they'd finish 1st in the East and I think I'll stick with that.
The Nuggets may look mediocre but West-mediocre is East-not bad. But I think the Raps (-10) will handle their business tonight on their home floor.
1st -- Raptors 35-30
2nd -- Raptors 27-22
Lot of minutes for Mozgov, especially considering he's expected to pick up the rebounding slack in the absence of Faried; Valanciunas over and over again got the better of Mozgov. (Why isn't Faried working out in Denver this year? Thought he was ready to have his blow-up year. And where's Nurkic?) Ty Lawson with 8 assists at half, he's balling. Gallinari not getting a lot of minutes even though this is Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights; he doesn't looks like he's gonna score out there tonight but shouldn't he be getting minutes just to fill space? Wilson Chandler (trade bait d'jour!) was hot early on but disappeared by halftime; I know he's everybody's favorite swing man to be out on the trade market but I don't see much in his game outside of occasional hot shooting that contributes much.
Vazquez gets the start with DeRozan out, noticed Lou Williams subbed for Lowry, then Lowry came back after a break for Vazquez; seems like a lot of early minutes for a guy used to coming off the bench. Raptors slowed down toward the end of the first half, the Nuggets cut into the lead with a late spurt. The Raptors were by far the better team in the first but only up 10 at half.
3rd -- Nuggets 29-20
4th -- Nuggets 21-20
OT -- Raptors 10-5
The Raptors give up way too many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, Nuggets finally get over their turnover problems and start knocking down some shots. Patrick Patterson is one of the most under appreciated players in the league these days, off the bench he does a lot for this team, he can speed them up or slow them down, decent outside shooter, makes timely plays, good defender, etc. James Johnson, too, is balling off the bench, he's got legit offensive moves, effortless with his back to the basket. Lowry is the one that runs this team but Lou off the bench keeps it going; the combo of Lou Williams and Grievus Vazquez is what will keep the Raptors afloat while DeRozan convalesces.
The Nuggets made a game of it but the Raptors handled their business in OT like a veteran club should. But kudos to the Nuggets for covering the spread.
Box Score Notes
Man, a ton of minutes for Nuggets starters: Mozgov and Lawson barely got off the floor--in at OT game? On the 2nd night of a back-to-back? 3rd road game in 4 days? Jeez, these guys are gonna be in shape (if they don't die). And I thought the Nuggets problem was too many guys wanting too few minutes; not tonight. Without Faried, McGee and Robinson (or Nurkic) that lineup is paper thin. Mozgov went 7-14 from the floor, better than I noticed while watching; he hustles, big body, but he looked gassed by halftime. Afflalo went 9-14 but had strangely little impact on the game, looks smooth when he's rolling but disappears for long stretches. Lawson's a smart player, used the high screen to his advantage over and over.
Yowza! All the 3-point shooting for the Raptors came from the bench: Patterson and Williams went 8-17, the starters went 1-16. The fact that the Raptors are getting scoring and defense off the bench is what keeps them dangerous into the 4th quarter night after night. 13 assists for Lowry, 26/12 Valanciunas, Williams with 26 off the bench, Patterson chipping 19/8, good balance on this squad.
Nuggets at Raptors (-10)
The Nuggets (9-11. 11th in the West) have a great and unique home court advantage that gives them a reason to compete. But in a tough Western Conference they look pretty mediocre. They've got a lot of 'nice' players but lack that one guy that makes it all work. Occasionally a rotation like that sneaks wins but usually it gets bested in the 4th quarter and this Nuggets team falls squarely in the latter group. There's enough intriguing talents to go with the home court advantage to assume they'll be okay but probably not playoff-worthy (indeed, that combo probably makes them trade bait-worthy). In the West good is not good enough so you gotta figure a nice East Coast road trip is exactly what the Nuggets need to get some easy W's, right? Nope: @Hawks, @ Wizards, @Raptors in 4 days--doh! Good luck with that. Man, even the easy part of their schedule is letting them down this season. Mediocre teams need all the extra luck they can get...and this ain't it.
The Raptors (15-5, 1st in the East) hit the ground running this year, just like I thought they would. They've got good starting talent, a nice looking bench and they rounded into shape right at the end of the year, going down in the playoffs to the Paul Pierce-led Nets (words you won't read ever again, I bet). I believe we haven't seen the best of the Raptors, even though DeRozan is out til the All-Star break apparently, they should have the depth to survive in the East. I predicted they'd finish 1st in the East and I think I'll stick with that.
The Nuggets may look mediocre but West-mediocre is East-not bad. But I think the Raps (-10) will handle their business tonight on their home floor.
1st -- Raptors 35-30
2nd -- Raptors 27-22
Lot of minutes for Mozgov, especially considering he's expected to pick up the rebounding slack in the absence of Faried; Valanciunas over and over again got the better of Mozgov. (Why isn't Faried working out in Denver this year? Thought he was ready to have his blow-up year. And where's Nurkic?) Ty Lawson with 8 assists at half, he's balling. Gallinari not getting a lot of minutes even though this is Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights; he doesn't looks like he's gonna score out there tonight but shouldn't he be getting minutes just to fill space? Wilson Chandler (trade bait d'jour!) was hot early on but disappeared by halftime; I know he's everybody's favorite swing man to be out on the trade market but I don't see much in his game outside of occasional hot shooting that contributes much.
Vazquez gets the start with DeRozan out, noticed Lou Williams subbed for Lowry, then Lowry came back after a break for Vazquez; seems like a lot of early minutes for a guy used to coming off the bench. Raptors slowed down toward the end of the first half, the Nuggets cut into the lead with a late spurt. The Raptors were by far the better team in the first but only up 10 at half.
3rd -- Nuggets 29-20
4th -- Nuggets 21-20
OT -- Raptors 10-5
The Raptors give up way too many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, Nuggets finally get over their turnover problems and start knocking down some shots. Patrick Patterson is one of the most under appreciated players in the league these days, off the bench he does a lot for this team, he can speed them up or slow them down, decent outside shooter, makes timely plays, good defender, etc. James Johnson, too, is balling off the bench, he's got legit offensive moves, effortless with his back to the basket. Lowry is the one that runs this team but Lou off the bench keeps it going; the combo of Lou Williams and Grievus Vazquez is what will keep the Raptors afloat while DeRozan convalesces.
The Nuggets made a game of it but the Raptors handled their business in OT like a veteran club should. But kudos to the Nuggets for covering the spread.
Box Score Notes
Man, a ton of minutes for Nuggets starters: Mozgov and Lawson barely got off the floor--in at OT game? On the 2nd night of a back-to-back? 3rd road game in 4 days? Jeez, these guys are gonna be in shape (if they don't die). And I thought the Nuggets problem was too many guys wanting too few minutes; not tonight. Without Faried, McGee and Robinson (or Nurkic) that lineup is paper thin. Mozgov went 7-14 from the floor, better than I noticed while watching; he hustles, big body, but he looked gassed by halftime. Afflalo went 9-14 but had strangely little impact on the game, looks smooth when he's rolling but disappears for long stretches. Lawson's a smart player, used the high screen to his advantage over and over.
Yowza! All the 3-point shooting for the Raptors came from the bench: Patterson and Williams went 8-17, the starters went 1-16. The fact that the Raptors are getting scoring and defense off the bench is what keeps them dangerous into the 4th quarter night after night. 13 assists for Lowry, 26/12 Valanciunas, Williams with 26 off the bench, Patterson chipping 19/8, good balance on this squad.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Coach of the Year update
Mike Malone isn't going to win Coach of the Year, you heard it here first! If you'd told me before the season that Mike Malone would be the first coach fired I wouldn't have been surprised; but considering the hot start the Kings had, it is shocking that they'd fire Malone now. Why fire Malone at all much less right now? Ty Corbin is an upgrade? Frankly the Kings record right now is waaaaay better than I would've thought going into the season. Indeed, I think they've already overachieved and are not going to get any better as the year goes on.
Can they get George Karl? Maybe but I think Karl can do better and will pass on this opportunity. Can they get Mark Jackson? Ditto. I suspect there will be better jobs available by next fall and Jackson can get a better shot than Sacramento.
The Kings have Demarcus Cousins on what I think is the best contract in the League for the next 3 years. After that....not much. If they think Malone wasn't the guy, that's fine--personally I have no idea who Mike Malone is so I can't sit here and argue for or against him. But if the Kings organization truly feels like they're going to win games immediately, they are nuts. This is not a good team, they haven't drafted well (outside of Cousins), they haven't made strong trades or brought in good free agents in over a decade. Cousins is a talented talented basketball player but he's a toxic personality, some would say a 'coach killer' and a tough option to make the face of your franchise. Any coach's first priority is to suck up to Cousins, not the best way to start out.
The team isn't good enough to lure in a veteran coach and Cousins is too toxic to make a go with an up-and-comer. I think Mike Malone was probably as good as they're gonna do. But, hey, now they're back in the running for the #1 pick!
Can they get George Karl? Maybe but I think Karl can do better and will pass on this opportunity. Can they get Mark Jackson? Ditto. I suspect there will be better jobs available by next fall and Jackson can get a better shot than Sacramento.
The Kings have Demarcus Cousins on what I think is the best contract in the League for the next 3 years. After that....not much. If they think Malone wasn't the guy, that's fine--personally I have no idea who Mike Malone is so I can't sit here and argue for or against him. But if the Kings organization truly feels like they're going to win games immediately, they are nuts. This is not a good team, they haven't drafted well (outside of Cousins), they haven't made strong trades or brought in good free agents in over a decade. Cousins is a talented talented basketball player but he's a toxic personality, some would say a 'coach killer' and a tough option to make the face of your franchise. Any coach's first priority is to suck up to Cousins, not the best way to start out.
The team isn't good enough to lure in a veteran coach and Cousins is too toxic to make a go with an up-and-comer. I think Mike Malone was probably as good as they're gonna do. But, hey, now they're back in the running for the #1 pick!
ROY Update
Missed last week but I'm back. The NBA is up to 61 new debut players this year, adding CJ Wilcox (Clippers) and Mitch McGary (Thunder) since the last update blog post. Julius Randle is still 20th in rookie MPG, who are the 19 ahead of him?
Wiggins (30.7), Noel (30.5), Parker (30.2), Bogdanovic (28.6), LaVine (25.5), Papanickolau (25.5), McDaniels (25.3), Payton (24.6), Napier (21.4), Mirotic (17.8), Exum (17.4), Hood (17.2), Ingles (17.0), Black (17.0), Rudez (16.7), Smart (16.4), Hairston (15.3), Gordon (15.0), Stauskas (14.1)
LaVine has made the most eye-opening jump. In the two weeks since my last update LaVine has gone from 20.5 MPG to 25.5, a jump indicating that the Wolves are ready to rely on LaVine to spell the injured Ricky Rubio. Speaking of the Wolves, Wiggins has jumped from 28.6 to 30.7 MPG in the last two weeks. The youth movement seems to be coming along nicely in Minnesota though they have dropped to dead last in the West with only 1 win out of their last 9 games. Hey, just makes the youth movement that much stronger, right?
In other youth movements around the league, Rodney Hood had gone from 14.5 two weeks ago to 17.2 this week, edging ahead of teammate Joe Ingles whose minutes have fallen slightly. Ingles is an older player and not really meant to be part of the youth movement so it makes sense that Hood has seemingly made the jump to join Exum in the rookies needing minutes department.
Smart is back from injury and not yet getting the minutes he was earlier in the year. Part of this is because the Celtics, while not getting a lot of wins, are a scrappy team that is improving at staying in games later, perhaps that contributes to less playing time for rookies. I suspect that Smart's minutes will be back up next time I update this list and certainly by the end of the year; Smart needs to play and the Celtics know that to be the case.
Wiggins (30.7), Noel (30.5), Parker (30.2), Bogdanovic (28.6), LaVine (25.5), Papanickolau (25.5), McDaniels (25.3), Payton (24.6), Napier (21.4), Mirotic (17.8), Exum (17.4), Hood (17.2), Ingles (17.0), Black (17.0), Rudez (16.7), Smart (16.4), Hairston (15.3), Gordon (15.0), Stauskas (14.1)
LaVine has made the most eye-opening jump. In the two weeks since my last update LaVine has gone from 20.5 MPG to 25.5, a jump indicating that the Wolves are ready to rely on LaVine to spell the injured Ricky Rubio. Speaking of the Wolves, Wiggins has jumped from 28.6 to 30.7 MPG in the last two weeks. The youth movement seems to be coming along nicely in Minnesota though they have dropped to dead last in the West with only 1 win out of their last 9 games. Hey, just makes the youth movement that much stronger, right?
In other youth movements around the league, Rodney Hood had gone from 14.5 two weeks ago to 17.2 this week, edging ahead of teammate Joe Ingles whose minutes have fallen slightly. Ingles is an older player and not really meant to be part of the youth movement so it makes sense that Hood has seemingly made the jump to join Exum in the rookies needing minutes department.
Smart is back from injury and not yet getting the minutes he was earlier in the year. Part of this is because the Celtics, while not getting a lot of wins, are a scrappy team that is improving at staying in games later, perhaps that contributes to less playing time for rookies. I suspect that Smart's minutes will be back up next time I update this list and certainly by the end of the year; Smart needs to play and the Celtics know that to be the case.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
NFL Power Rankings
The season is rapidly closing, time to look ahead and see how the teams will finish. I looked at the coming games for the next four weeks, picked out my winners/losers. Here's what I ended up with.
AFC
13 wins -- Pats, Broncos
11 -- Bengals, Colts, Chiefs
10 -- Dolphins
9 -- Ravens, Texans
8 -- Steelers, Browns, Chargers,
7 -- Bills
5 -- Titans
2 -- NYJ, Jags, Raiders
1st round of the playoffs -- Pats, Broncos (bye), Dolphins at Bengals, Chiefs at Colts
Colts-Chiefs rematch (gotta go with Luck). Andy Dalton gets a home game (not sure, the weather could be a huge factor in that match). Pats, Broncos just waiting around to play each other.
NFC
13 wins -- Packers
12 -- Eagles
11 -- Seahawks, Cowboys, Lions
10 -- Cards
9 -- Niners, Rams,
8 -- Falcons
7 -- Saints, Vikings
5 -- Bears
4 -- Panthers, NYG, Bucs
3 -- Redskins
1st round of the playoffs -- Packers, Eagles (bye), Cowboys at Falcons, Lions at Seahawks
Cowboys all-world OL against the Falcons brutally awful DL, gotta figure Romo pulls it out. Lions have no offense against one of the best D's in the league, I'll take the Seahawks at home.
Yeah, its a little early to make my playoff picks but that's what predictions are all about. Looking over the coming schedule it looked to me like in addition to the Broncos, Pats and Packers punking everyone that unfortunately has to play them (Bills play all three down the stretch, ouch!), the Chiefs and Rams are gonna charge to the finish. We'll see.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Pointless NBA trade idea
Hawks get:
PG Trey Burke
F/C Enes Kanter
A trade exception
The Hawks move forward with Kanter to replace Millsap, which should still be good enough for playoffs this year in the East; Burke adds bench depth for the next few years; the cap is unaffected; still plenty of money at the ready to chase another free agent this summer. Perhaps the Hawks think they can keep Millsap but I'm betting he'll be wanting a big raise, a really big raise, a NYK kinda raise and though the Hawks have the money, something in me says they'd rather spend that money on something shiny and new or maybe spread it over multiple positions rather than re-up Millsap; I'm not saying Kanter is as good as Millsap but going forward he'll be a reasonable replacement (especially if Adrien Payne, currently of the D League, emerges with any kind of skill). Burke and Shroder may be too many guys with not enough playing time and Shelvin Mack would become expendable but I suggest a plethora of talented guards will be valuable in one way or another.
Suns get:
F Paul Millsap
PG/SG Rodney Hood
The Suns give Goran Dragic's extension money to Paul Millsap, rely on Bledsoe and Thomas to run the offense. Whether they keep Dragic or trade him, I suspect Gerald Green is gone next year, so this year they may as get as many minutes and production as he can stand. I sent Hood to the Suns simply because I thought they could use another G off the bench a little more than the Hawks. I like Millsap to mesh with Bledsoe and shore up the interior offense and defense, I think they could play Millsap as a PF with Plumlee/Len or as C with the Morris twins. Millsap gives them someone veteran gravitas and brings a big body to the roster instead of re-signing Goran. I love Goran but he and Bledose both need the ball and the Isiah-off-the-bench thing is clearly weirding him out. I thought the Suns would struggle for a bit to replace Channing Fyre but I thought the 3-guard offense would keep the offensive attack rolling in a new way--and it may still work out. But to me it looks like Goran won't be back next year and I think they'd be better off going for a F or a C more than another PG.
Jazz get:
G Goran Dragic
G Zoran Dragic
The Jazz add another long term piece to go with Hayward, Burks and Favors and they feature a running offense that wants to score, score, score. They'll be fun to watch even if they don't go deep in the playoffs. Zoran is not a bad player, coming off the bench with Exum and Ingles should keep that offense flowing. Burke and Kanter just don't look like the right fits for the Jazz and if they could package them for Goran Dragic, I say do it.
Why would teams want to give the long term money to new guys instead of the players they know? They probably wouldn't. But in this case I think these guys just fit better in other places. Trey Burke is a rival to Dante Exum but Goran Dragic is a mentor. Enes Kanter is a nice big man but he doesn't fit what the Jazz do, doesn't mean he's not a good player just that he's not the best fit long term for Hayward, Favors and Burks but he might go better with Horford, Korver and Teague. Burke is surrounded by talented guards in Utah and he would still be in Atlanta, but moving to the East would almost assuredly make him better, don't ya think? I think Millsap could be good in Phoenix because...well, I think he can be good most anywhere but I think Coach Hornacek would incorporate Millsap on both ends of the court quickly. (I hate to use Rodney Hood as a stocking stuffer, its quite possible that he emerges as a good solid scorer in this league soon enough but for now he smooths out the contracts)
Obviously the deal hinges on Kanter, Millsap and Dragic accepting extensions in the off-season (which would technically be illegal to negotiate ahead of time, would it not?). The idea that these guys might prosper on other teams and that other teams might find some common ground here overwhelmed me enough to put it in a blog post.
ROY Update
59 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year. Julius Randle (14.0) is still 20th in Rookie MPG, who are the 19 ahead of him (sorry, Stauskas, your time is dwindling)?
Bogdanovic (30.5), Nerlens (30.5), Jabari (29.6), Wiggins (28.6), Papanikolau (25.5), McDaniels (24.4), Payton (23.9), Napier (23.0), LaVine (20.7), Smart (20.4), Exum (18.1), Ingles (17.8), Rudez (17.4), Mirotic (17.0), Black (17.0), Hairston (16.1), Harris (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Hood (14.5)
Bogdanovic is still playing well for an awful team. His shooting is okay but his asst-to is a little troubling for the amount of time he's playing. I expect he'll stay high on this list throughout the season.
Nerlens is coming along, even if the Sixers aren't. The production is enough to suggest that he is worth the investment the Sixers have made so far. (Terrible FT shooter, wouldn't have thought so)
Jabari is on an up-and-coming team unlike Nerlens and Bogdanovic, that has to feel so good for a rookie. Jabari's contributions actually mean something and he's already clearly a legit player in this league. The consensus pick for ROY (though not my pick), so far I'd say it is his to lose.
Wiggins is getting time and developing nicely. Hasn't started setting the world on fire (too many turnovers, so-so FG%, terrible FT%) but his got the body and over time the game will come to him. Not a ROY, I think, unless he takes a major step forward by the end of the year (and perhaps that will happen once Rubio comes back).
Papanickolau still plugging along. Decent 3-shooter, decent rebounder, good assist numbers, his minutes are firmly his, I expect he'll stay in the Rocket rotation throughout the year.
McDaniels hot start has leveled off some: his FG% coming back down to earth, too many turnovers, though still a surprisingly good shot blocker. Could be the bedrock of the Sixer bench for years to come or maybe he's just overacheived on a team with little expectation of achieving, we'll see.
Elfrid Payton is still looking good to me. The numbers aren't astounding (why are all these kids such terrible FT shooters?!?) but his poise on the court is undeniable, he looks like an NBA player. As the Magic rotation settles in, I expect he'll be a meaningful part of that team all year long--and a Magic push for the playoffs does not seem like such a long shot in the East.
Napier, like Payton, looks like he belongs. Still too many turnovers but his conservative play is just right for a veteran Heat team. He's a part of that team already (and I suspect will outlast Chalmers and Cole on that roster).
LaVine is an up-and-down player. Did you see him against the Lake Show last week? Dude was balling that night; but other nights he disappears without much flourish. LaVine is still figuring out his place in the Wolves rotation and I suspect he is more of a highlight reel guy than a work pail kinda rookie. That's not to say he won't be a fine player in this league, just that his accomplishments will be of a more ethereal nature than stuffing a stat sheet.
Exum and Ingles are both getting good minutes in the Jazz rotation. Neither are exactly tearing up gthe league but neither is playing poorly. The Jazz probably have a trade or two in them so we'll see what the roster looks like by the end of the season. Exum is clearly the long term guy but maybe Ingles will be the short team guy.
I'm a little puzzled by Rudez. His minutes have actually gone down when I thought they'd go up. But then again the Pacers are better than they ought to be so maybe Rudez's contribution will have to come in smaller doses. (Gotta admit, I haven't watched the Pacers yet this year, haven't seen Rudez actually suit up)
Though Mirotic is currently sitting at 14th on this list, I expect that his minutes will increase. I think Mirotic has the versatility to plug in for any number of injuries (and you know the Bulls are gonna have plenty of them), so any extra minutes out there are gonna go to him. Good player, man, all around he's got a little bit of everything in his game, probably as all-around good as anyone in this rookie crop.
Tarik Black is Dwight Howard's backup. His minutes are probably gonna stay around this level for the entire year regardless of his production. He's not there for the output, he's there because he has long legs and Dwight can't play 48 minutes a night.
Hairston is suddenly getting minutes on the dysfunctional Hornets, a team way way way worse than I would've thought (and I wasn't that high on them to begin with). The real problem for the Hornets is there are no problems! This is the team they have and unless they start making crazy trades or figure out some new way to do things, they're not getting any better. Where does Hairston fit in? No telling but as long as there is chaos I reckon he'll keep getting thrown out there.
Hood isn't turning the ball over or committing egregious fouls but he's not knocking down shots either. With the sudden appearance of Ingles, Hood is even further down the depth chart than I anticipated, not writing him off but clearly it'll take a little longer for Hood to get his reps on the court. (And, again, the Jazz have moves to make and he could end up on a different squad by year's end)
Smart, Harris and Gordon have not (if I'm not mistaken) played since the last time I updated this. Marcus Smart still has plenty of time to develop and Aaron Gordon had already firmly planted himself in the Magic rotation before his injury. Not sure what's up with Gary Harris (or the Denver Nuggets, for that matter).
My original ROY pick was a tie between Payton and Nerlens and I'd say they're both still in the top five. I would add Jabari to that mix, Bogdanovic and Wiggins will have admirers come voting time, don't forget about Marcus Smart, and keep an eye on Mirotic, I think his opportunities are the most variable of anyone out there.
Also, James Ennis (Heat), Doug McDermott (Bulls), Joe Harris (Cavs) and Nik Stauskas (Kings) play pretty regular minutes and it feels like TJ Warren (Suns) might blow up outta nowhere at any time.
Bogdanovic (30.5), Nerlens (30.5), Jabari (29.6), Wiggins (28.6), Papanikolau (25.5), McDaniels (24.4), Payton (23.9), Napier (23.0), LaVine (20.7), Smart (20.4), Exum (18.1), Ingles (17.8), Rudez (17.4), Mirotic (17.0), Black (17.0), Hairston (16.1), Harris (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Hood (14.5)
Bogdanovic is still playing well for an awful team. His shooting is okay but his asst-to is a little troubling for the amount of time he's playing. I expect he'll stay high on this list throughout the season.
Nerlens is coming along, even if the Sixers aren't. The production is enough to suggest that he is worth the investment the Sixers have made so far. (Terrible FT shooter, wouldn't have thought so)
Jabari is on an up-and-coming team unlike Nerlens and Bogdanovic, that has to feel so good for a rookie. Jabari's contributions actually mean something and he's already clearly a legit player in this league. The consensus pick for ROY (though not my pick), so far I'd say it is his to lose.
Wiggins is getting time and developing nicely. Hasn't started setting the world on fire (too many turnovers, so-so FG%, terrible FT%) but his got the body and over time the game will come to him. Not a ROY, I think, unless he takes a major step forward by the end of the year (and perhaps that will happen once Rubio comes back).
Papanickolau still plugging along. Decent 3-shooter, decent rebounder, good assist numbers, his minutes are firmly his, I expect he'll stay in the Rocket rotation throughout the year.
McDaniels hot start has leveled off some: his FG% coming back down to earth, too many turnovers, though still a surprisingly good shot blocker. Could be the bedrock of the Sixer bench for years to come or maybe he's just overacheived on a team with little expectation of achieving, we'll see.
Elfrid Payton is still looking good to me. The numbers aren't astounding (why are all these kids such terrible FT shooters?!?) but his poise on the court is undeniable, he looks like an NBA player. As the Magic rotation settles in, I expect he'll be a meaningful part of that team all year long--and a Magic push for the playoffs does not seem like such a long shot in the East.
Napier, like Payton, looks like he belongs. Still too many turnovers but his conservative play is just right for a veteran Heat team. He's a part of that team already (and I suspect will outlast Chalmers and Cole on that roster).
LaVine is an up-and-down player. Did you see him against the Lake Show last week? Dude was balling that night; but other nights he disappears without much flourish. LaVine is still figuring out his place in the Wolves rotation and I suspect he is more of a highlight reel guy than a work pail kinda rookie. That's not to say he won't be a fine player in this league, just that his accomplishments will be of a more ethereal nature than stuffing a stat sheet.
Exum and Ingles are both getting good minutes in the Jazz rotation. Neither are exactly tearing up gthe league but neither is playing poorly. The Jazz probably have a trade or two in them so we'll see what the roster looks like by the end of the season. Exum is clearly the long term guy but maybe Ingles will be the short team guy.
I'm a little puzzled by Rudez. His minutes have actually gone down when I thought they'd go up. But then again the Pacers are better than they ought to be so maybe Rudez's contribution will have to come in smaller doses. (Gotta admit, I haven't watched the Pacers yet this year, haven't seen Rudez actually suit up)
Though Mirotic is currently sitting at 14th on this list, I expect that his minutes will increase. I think Mirotic has the versatility to plug in for any number of injuries (and you know the Bulls are gonna have plenty of them), so any extra minutes out there are gonna go to him. Good player, man, all around he's got a little bit of everything in his game, probably as all-around good as anyone in this rookie crop.
Tarik Black is Dwight Howard's backup. His minutes are probably gonna stay around this level for the entire year regardless of his production. He's not there for the output, he's there because he has long legs and Dwight can't play 48 minutes a night.
Hairston is suddenly getting minutes on the dysfunctional Hornets, a team way way way worse than I would've thought (and I wasn't that high on them to begin with). The real problem for the Hornets is there are no problems! This is the team they have and unless they start making crazy trades or figure out some new way to do things, they're not getting any better. Where does Hairston fit in? No telling but as long as there is chaos I reckon he'll keep getting thrown out there.
Hood isn't turning the ball over or committing egregious fouls but he's not knocking down shots either. With the sudden appearance of Ingles, Hood is even further down the depth chart than I anticipated, not writing him off but clearly it'll take a little longer for Hood to get his reps on the court. (And, again, the Jazz have moves to make and he could end up on a different squad by year's end)
Smart, Harris and Gordon have not (if I'm not mistaken) played since the last time I updated this. Marcus Smart still has plenty of time to develop and Aaron Gordon had already firmly planted himself in the Magic rotation before his injury. Not sure what's up with Gary Harris (or the Denver Nuggets, for that matter).
My original ROY pick was a tie between Payton and Nerlens and I'd say they're both still in the top five. I would add Jabari to that mix, Bogdanovic and Wiggins will have admirers come voting time, don't forget about Marcus Smart, and keep an eye on Mirotic, I think his opportunities are the most variable of anyone out there.
Also, James Ennis (Heat), Doug McDermott (Bulls), Joe Harris (Cavs) and Nik Stauskas (Kings) play pretty regular minutes and it feels like TJ Warren (Suns) might blow up outta nowhere at any time.
Monday, December 1, 2014
NBA Game of the Week
Wolves (4-10) at Blazers (12-4)
The Wolves are a team in flux, this year is all about figuring out what they'll have next year. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging just under 30 mins a game and rookie Zach LaVine is starting to get important minutes in the absence of Ricky Rubio, while 2nd year guys Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad are firmly part of the rotation now. All about the youngsters, as the Wolves spent most of the off-season trying to get rid of any veterans making money (JJ Barea out, Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer got the rumors swirling) and yet...they added Thaddeus Young (why?). The kids are struggling in the brutal Western Conference but there is something lovable about the fact that their road record (2-5) is identical to their home record; hey, at least they're not intimidated on the road.
Last year, the Blazers surprised a lot of people with their remarkable start. They faded toward the end of the season, managed to beat the Rockets in the 1st round even though they gave up home court advantage. 2nd round is nice but to go further I thought they'd need an upgrade, at least a scoring replacement for Mo Williams, and while Steve Blake and Chris Kaman are solid veterans off the bench, I didn't think that would be enough, I thought the Blazers would flounder by the end of the year. But so far, so good for the Blazers, they've again gotten off to a good start and find themselves in 4th place in the West coming into this game. How will they handle this year's 2nd half fade?
The Blazers are a 13.5 favorite at home. I like the Blazers to get the victory but I'll take the young Wolves to keep it the game tighter than 13.
1st -- Wolves 26-22
2nd -- Blazers 26-14
Aldridge was off to a brilliant start, seemed like he was hitting everything. Batum, too, wasn't as deadly with his shot but defensively he was active, all over the boards. Lillard seems a little sluggish tonight, seems like Mo Williams has got him spooked: I don't mean to suggest that Mo is shutting Lillard down but as soon as Mo leaves, Lillard goes off. Hmmm....Mo Williams is Lillard kryptonite? Who saw that coming? Kaman is a nice change of pace off the bench, Aldridrge gets to rest a bit without too much drop off down low. So that's Joel Freeland, huh? Don't think I've ever seen him play before...has he ever played before? Wow, he's pretty awful out there! Allen Crabbe!
I've seen enough of Wiggins to know that that kid can play, keep giving him minutes, he needs to play. Not the kind of rookie that's going to put a team on his back or anything, this isn't Magic's rookie season, but he's clearly contributing and worthy of a fair amount of the hype. Thad Young wasn't hitting the broad side of a barn early on; when they traded for Young I didn't think it was a bad deal (although they did give up a 1st rounder for him) because kinda like baseball, you need veterans to give you innings, you know? But looking back on it, why bother? The Wolves have plenty of bodies that will want playing time, why not keep that 1st rounder? Chase Budinger kinda looks like Kaman, no? Like Kaman is his pirate mentor. Shabazz Muhammad off the bench! Every time I watched the Wolves last year, Shabazz and Gorgui would go off and I'd wonder why they weren't playing more. Well, Rick Adelman is gone, all the veterans are gone, and Gorgui and Shabazz are getting some run finally. LaVine kinda sluggish in his early appearances tonight and with Mo Williams' sly magic in this building, perhaps this is just not his night. Anthony Bennett...kinda Freeland-ish out there. I kinda miss Rubio, I'd love to see him with these kids. Mo Williams is nice off the bench but for 48 minutes these guys need a table setter.
Blake races up the court, feeds Aldridge for the layup at the buzzer--that's called veteran smarts, kids. Blazers up 8 at halftime.
3rd - Blazers 27-21
4th - 32-32
Batum is a pro, man, that guy plays basketball for a living, even when he's not completely on his game you don't mess around with that dude. I think I may have misjudged Terry Stotts; I'm not a great x's-and-o's guy when it comes to basketball, I'm more of a roster construction kinda guy, and when watching a game I'm just trying to get an organic feel for each squad so I'm not the best at discerning the coach's influence. I thought Stotts could be on the hot seat (as I anticipated the Blazers fading in the West this year) but maybe not, he's been there long enough that he's probably established enough there and if the vets like him, why fire him? Even when Lillard isn't going off, he handles his business like a pro night after night.
Shabazz is still balling for the Wolves and Mo Williams looks like he's having fun out there, but not much else from the Wolves in the 2nd half. Wiggins and LaVine both disappeared, Bennett and Budinger were not productive, Gorgui is kinda the poor man's Lamarcus Aldridge, no? Feels like Flip Saunders is not liking his chances of stealing one on the road in Portland. I'm not saying they would've won tonight with Rubio but he is a different kinda cat and you'd like to think he could've brought more out of the kids tonight.
Final possession, Wolves down by 14, you just need a basket to cover the spread! Come on! Why aren't you...aw crap! The oddsmakers had their finger on 13.5 point pulse tonight.
Blazers 107-93 Wolves
Digging into the stats: The Blazers starters, like last year, play an awful lot of minutes and with no run at all for Robinson, Barton, Claver or McCollum, you wonder how many minutes the big guys can carry. Wesley Matthews quietly rocked this game: 6-10 from 3, 6 boards, 23 points, guy's getting it done. Lillard didn't shoot particularly well but 8 assists-1 turnover is good stuff.
Thaddeus Young ended up 6-11 from the floor in 43 minutes; okay, well, I guess I rescind my original comment: they brought him in to play a lot of minutes and he's playing well enough (even if he's not getting A's on the eye test); the trade made sense to me when they made it, perhaps I should stick with my original narrative and realize that this team already has enough of a youth movement going and there is a need for a reliable guy to book some time. Only 11 minutes for LaVine, only 18 for Wiggins. I can understand letting Mo Williams play more against his old team but why so many minutes for Corey Brewer? Shabazz Muhammad 12-17 from the floor, 28 points, 5 boards in 30 minutes....still gets a -10; the youth movement is fun to watch but it does not translate to wins in the NBA.
The Wolves are a team in flux, this year is all about figuring out what they'll have next year. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging just under 30 mins a game and rookie Zach LaVine is starting to get important minutes in the absence of Ricky Rubio, while 2nd year guys Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad are firmly part of the rotation now. All about the youngsters, as the Wolves spent most of the off-season trying to get rid of any veterans making money (JJ Barea out, Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer got the rumors swirling) and yet...they added Thaddeus Young (why?). The kids are struggling in the brutal Western Conference but there is something lovable about the fact that their road record (2-5) is identical to their home record; hey, at least they're not intimidated on the road.
Last year, the Blazers surprised a lot of people with their remarkable start. They faded toward the end of the season, managed to beat the Rockets in the 1st round even though they gave up home court advantage. 2nd round is nice but to go further I thought they'd need an upgrade, at least a scoring replacement for Mo Williams, and while Steve Blake and Chris Kaman are solid veterans off the bench, I didn't think that would be enough, I thought the Blazers would flounder by the end of the year. But so far, so good for the Blazers, they've again gotten off to a good start and find themselves in 4th place in the West coming into this game. How will they handle this year's 2nd half fade?
The Blazers are a 13.5 favorite at home. I like the Blazers to get the victory but I'll take the young Wolves to keep it the game tighter than 13.
1st -- Wolves 26-22
2nd -- Blazers 26-14
Aldridge was off to a brilliant start, seemed like he was hitting everything. Batum, too, wasn't as deadly with his shot but defensively he was active, all over the boards. Lillard seems a little sluggish tonight, seems like Mo Williams has got him spooked: I don't mean to suggest that Mo is shutting Lillard down but as soon as Mo leaves, Lillard goes off. Hmmm....Mo Williams is Lillard kryptonite? Who saw that coming? Kaman is a nice change of pace off the bench, Aldridrge gets to rest a bit without too much drop off down low. So that's Joel Freeland, huh? Don't think I've ever seen him play before...has he ever played before? Wow, he's pretty awful out there! Allen Crabbe!
I've seen enough of Wiggins to know that that kid can play, keep giving him minutes, he needs to play. Not the kind of rookie that's going to put a team on his back or anything, this isn't Magic's rookie season, but he's clearly contributing and worthy of a fair amount of the hype. Thad Young wasn't hitting the broad side of a barn early on; when they traded for Young I didn't think it was a bad deal (although they did give up a 1st rounder for him) because kinda like baseball, you need veterans to give you innings, you know? But looking back on it, why bother? The Wolves have plenty of bodies that will want playing time, why not keep that 1st rounder? Chase Budinger kinda looks like Kaman, no? Like Kaman is his pirate mentor. Shabazz Muhammad off the bench! Every time I watched the Wolves last year, Shabazz and Gorgui would go off and I'd wonder why they weren't playing more. Well, Rick Adelman is gone, all the veterans are gone, and Gorgui and Shabazz are getting some run finally. LaVine kinda sluggish in his early appearances tonight and with Mo Williams' sly magic in this building, perhaps this is just not his night. Anthony Bennett...kinda Freeland-ish out there. I kinda miss Rubio, I'd love to see him with these kids. Mo Williams is nice off the bench but for 48 minutes these guys need a table setter.
Blake races up the court, feeds Aldridge for the layup at the buzzer--that's called veteran smarts, kids. Blazers up 8 at halftime.
3rd - Blazers 27-21
4th - 32-32
Batum is a pro, man, that guy plays basketball for a living, even when he's not completely on his game you don't mess around with that dude. I think I may have misjudged Terry Stotts; I'm not a great x's-and-o's guy when it comes to basketball, I'm more of a roster construction kinda guy, and when watching a game I'm just trying to get an organic feel for each squad so I'm not the best at discerning the coach's influence. I thought Stotts could be on the hot seat (as I anticipated the Blazers fading in the West this year) but maybe not, he's been there long enough that he's probably established enough there and if the vets like him, why fire him? Even when Lillard isn't going off, he handles his business like a pro night after night.
Shabazz is still balling for the Wolves and Mo Williams looks like he's having fun out there, but not much else from the Wolves in the 2nd half. Wiggins and LaVine both disappeared, Bennett and Budinger were not productive, Gorgui is kinda the poor man's Lamarcus Aldridge, no? Feels like Flip Saunders is not liking his chances of stealing one on the road in Portland. I'm not saying they would've won tonight with Rubio but he is a different kinda cat and you'd like to think he could've brought more out of the kids tonight.
Final possession, Wolves down by 14, you just need a basket to cover the spread! Come on! Why aren't you...aw crap! The oddsmakers had their finger on 13.5 point pulse tonight.
Blazers 107-93 Wolves
Digging into the stats: The Blazers starters, like last year, play an awful lot of minutes and with no run at all for Robinson, Barton, Claver or McCollum, you wonder how many minutes the big guys can carry. Wesley Matthews quietly rocked this game: 6-10 from 3, 6 boards, 23 points, guy's getting it done. Lillard didn't shoot particularly well but 8 assists-1 turnover is good stuff.
Thaddeus Young ended up 6-11 from the floor in 43 minutes; okay, well, I guess I rescind my original comment: they brought him in to play a lot of minutes and he's playing well enough (even if he's not getting A's on the eye test); the trade made sense to me when they made it, perhaps I should stick with my original narrative and realize that this team already has enough of a youth movement going and there is a need for a reliable guy to book some time. Only 11 minutes for LaVine, only 18 for Wiggins. I can understand letting Mo Williams play more against his old team but why so many minutes for Corey Brewer? Shabazz Muhammad 12-17 from the floor, 28 points, 5 boards in 30 minutes....still gets a -10; the youth movement is fun to watch but it does not translate to wins in the NBA.
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