Friday, June 28, 2019

2019 Gold Cup Quarterfinals

A
Mexico started off hot, easily won the group, but seemed to run out of gas (Martinique gave 'em a run). Arguably the best team in group play.
Canada won the games they should've won, lost the match they should've lost.
Martinique lit up Cuba and gave a full effort against Mexico. (Kinda wish they were moving on)
Cuba sucked--sucked bad! I guess I should've known they're not good at soccer (you ask Henry Kissinger, he'll tell ya the same thing) but I thought they'd have some spice to them.


B
Haiti came up big in the final match against Costa Rica. They've got good athletes but I wasn't particularly impressed with their on-ball action. They've got a puncher's chance to move on.
Costa Rica should've won this group but didn't win the game they needed to win. Instead of playing Canada, they're playing Mexico, which is a huge difference.
Bermuda was fun, man. Played Haiti and Costa Rica close and thumped Nicaragua. I was more impressed with the Caribbean teams than I expected to be.
Nicaragua was not good. They were not in any of their three matches.


C (The most mixed up group)
Jamaica has a lot of nice athletes but I've never been sold on their ability to play soccer. Against Curacao they must've missed on 400 scoring chances! So will they keep getting enough chances to score or will they keep disappointing in the box?
Yeah, Curacao! I gave them no chance and they actually looked pretty good in all three matches. (That late goal against Jamaica was the highlight of the whole tourney so far)
Honduras came up too little, too late.
El Salvador, too, was in the mix in this group but just didn't get it done. 


D
USA! USA! I wasn't skeptical, so much as I just had no idea what to expect. Thumping Guyana was expected but thumping Trinidad was not at all expected--and such a pleasant surprise! And finishing off Panama was a solid performance by a confident squad, that didn't even play their best side. Very impressive, USA looks very good moving forward.
Panama was fine. I dunno, they didn't blow me away.
Guyana played hard and even managed a good result against Trinidad. All in all I misjudged the Caribbean squads, those smaller countries came to play.
Trinidad was disappointing but USA shredding their defense took it out of 'em, I reckon.


Quarters
Haiti-Canada
Canada is probably the better team but they're not great, while Haiti has enough athletes to sport better big play capability. I'd say Haiti has a better chance to connect on a corner kick but this has PK's written all over it.

Mexico-Costa Rica
Costa Rica has had some fine squads in recent years but I didn't see anything in the group games to make me think they're gonna be able to hang with Mexico. Gotta take Mexico to advance.

Jamaica-Panama
Two kinda disappointing sides. Jamaica never seemed very likely to finish their chances, Panama never seemed likely to move forward well enough to finish. Another one that could go to PK's though I suspect Jamaica is the better team.

USA-Curacao
I've admired Curacao's effort so far but USA seems to have their shit together, gotta ride the Americans to get to the final.


Mexico and USA are the two best teams (as they always should be) and I'd be kinda surprised (and more than a little disappointed) if they don't face off in the finals. 

Friday, June 21, 2019

2019 NBA Draft (Undrafted)

The NBA's newest free agents: Brian Bowen (USA), Tacko Fall (Central Florida), Jaylen Hoard (Wake Forest), Louis King (Oregon), Dedric Lawson (Kansas), Zach Norvell (Gonzaga), Shamorie Ponds (St. John's), Josh Obiesie (Germany), Naz Reid (LSU), Johntay Porter (Missouri), Kris Wilkes (UCLA), Adam Mokoka (France), Austin Wiley (Auburn), Simisola Shittu (Vanderbilt), Aubrey Dawkins (Central Florida), Lamar Peters (Mississippi State), Charles Matthews (Michigan), Lindell Wigginton (Iowa State ), Borisa Simanic (Serbia)

Tacko Fall's size is intriguing but I saw enough to see he had no instinct for the game of basketball and could never be anything more than a practice player. That said, backup big guys sometimes collect a lot of checks before they go.

No one went for the Johntay Porter, guess he could still end up with the Nuggets.

Naz Reid had some major love early on in the season, enough to get a camp invite?

Austin Wiley should get a pre-season invitation for someone, he's got some skills.

No one nabbed Aubrey Dawkins?

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (46-60)

46) Orlando Magic -- Talen Horton-Tucker (Iowa State)
2nd round grade--and even then appeared rather late in the process. Seems like a G-Leaguer.

47) New York Knicks -- Ignas Brezdeikas (Michigan)
The Wolverines were loaded with 2nd rd talent, not surprised to see him going here. (Kings traded #47 to the Knicks for #55)

48) LA Clippers -- Terence Mann (Florida State)
Consistent 2nd round grade all season long, on the rise in the last month or so. Not bad.

49) San Antonio Spurs -- Quinndary Weatherspoon (Missouri State)
Don't know him.

50) Utah Jazz --Jarrell Brantley (College of Charleston)
Don't know him.  Another one that isn't on my eligible players list. (Pacers traded #50 to Jazz for a future 2nd rd pick)

51) Boston Celtics -- Tremont Waters (LSU)
Hmmm, scouted LSU and went with Waters over Naz Reid? Well, the Celtics need PG's, so worth a try, I guess, though this seems like G-League depth.

52) Charlotte Hornets -- Jalen McDaniels (San Diego State)
Seems like a decent big body down low.

53) Utah Jazz --Justin Wright-Foreman (Hofstra)
Senior from Hofstra? Okay, I'm ready for it.

54) Philadelphia 76ers -- Marial Shayok (Iowa State)
Another one I don't even see on the eligible player list.

55) New York Kicks -- Kyle Guy (Viriginia)
Great get at #55. The next Alonzo Trier?

56) Brooklyn Nets -- Jaylen Hands (UCLA)
He's had moments of buzz this season, not a bad pick at #56.

57) Atlanta Hawks -- Jordan Bone (Tennessee)
Love this guy, yet another solid pick for the Hawks!

58) Golden State Warriors -- Miye Oni (Yale)
Warriors went way far off the menu tonight. Either the scouts are geniuses or they were just looking busy on draft night.

59) Toronto Raptors -- Dewan Hernandez (Miami)
Don't know him.

60) Sacramento Kings -- Vanja Marinkovic (Serbia)
Didn't exactly burn up the mock drafts, though he was in there. (Vlade Divac's nephew?)

Thursday, June 20, 2019

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (31-45)

31) Brooklyn Nets -- Nicolas Claxton (Georgia)
Started taking off not long before the draft, graded low 1st rd but early 2nd rd is probably the right place for him. Feels like the Nets got a steal at #31

32) Miami Heat -- KZ Okpala (Stanford)
Wow, he was top ten graded for parts of this season, this is a great get for the Heat. (Pacers traded #32 to the Heat for three 2nd rd picks)

33) Boston Celtics -- Carsen Edwards (Purdue)
My man! This is the guy the Celtics wanted the whole time (kinda like when the Rockets got Montrezl Harrell in the 2nd rd). Great pickup for the Celtics, Edwards has the chance to be something interesting.

34) Atlanta Hawks -- Bruno Fernando (Maryland)
Again! Top ten talent that fell a long way. Excellent night for the Hawks! (Sixers traded #34 to the Hawks for #57, a 2020 2nd rd pick, a 2023 2nd rd pick)

35) New Orleans Pelicans -- Marcos Louzada Silva (Brazil)
Seems like a Spurs player, I like it!

36) Charlotte Hornets -- Cody Martin (Nevada)
Had some exciting years with the Wolfpack, I think he'll get to play with the Hornets.

37) Detroit Pistons -- Deividas Syrvidis (Lithuania)
Seemed like a natural for the new-look Mavs but he's off to Detroit. (Mavs traded #37 to the Pistons for #45 and two future 2nd rd picks)

38) Chicago Bulls -- Daniel Gafford (Arkansas)
Hmmm, the last time the Bulls drafted an under appreciated Razorback (Bobby Portis) didn't work out that great. Oh well. I liked Portis and I like Gafford, too, good pick for the Bulls.

39) Golden State Warriors -- Alen Smailagic (Serbia)
Don't know him. I figured the Warriors would be active in the 2nd round but I'm not sure about the Warriors scouting, feels like there are interesting prospects out there and the Warriors keep going off the board. (Pelicans traded #39 to the Warriors for two future 2nd rd picks)

40) Sacramento Kings -- Justin James (Wyoming)
No idea who this guy is. I don't even see him on the list of eligible players!

41) Golden State Warriors -- Eric Paschall (Villanova)
Now here's a 1st rd talent that fell and the Warriors were there to grab him.

42) Washington Wizards -- Admiral Schofield (Tennessee)
Love this pick, getting a gritty hard-working guy at #42 is good value--and they get Jonathon Simmons to fill out the bench, too. (Sixers traded #42 and Jonathon Simmons to the Wizards for cash)

43) Minnesota T-Wolves -- Jaylen Nowell (Washington)
Don't know him.

44) Miami Heat -- Bol Bol (Oregon)
There he is. The whispers have not been good lately but #44 seems a reasonable spot to take a flyer on a guy that might have top ten talent. (Heat traded Bol Bol to the Nuggets for a future 2nd round pick and cash)

45) Dallas Mavericks -- Isiah Roby (Nebraska)
They traded away a full-on Lativian gangbanger for a kid from Nebraska? Intriguing....

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (15-30)

15) Detroit Pistons --Sekou Doumbouya (France)
Interesting character: youngest in the draft (so he's green) but he's been playing pro since he was 15 (so he's a grizzled vet). Hey, man, Pistons are a good spot for him, he'll play and develop and get just enough edge-of-playoff reps to train his young mind for the grind. I like this pick for the Pistons.

16) Orlando Magic -- Chuma Okeke (Auburn)
I liked Okeke at Auburn, tough guy (tore his ACL, so will we see him this year?), plays smart down low. This is much higher than his projection but since he is hurt this is actually probably where he belongs. Weird that Orlando would take a red-shirt this high, they must love him. (Sneaky 2020-2021 ROY pick)

17) New Orleans Pelicans -- Nickeill Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech)
(Seems like Orlando got these picks got out of order: I think I'd rather see Okeke in New Orleans and Alexander-Walker in Indiana. Oh well) He's a savvy player, can shoot the 3, could be good right away, although the Pelicans have a logjam at ballhandling PG, don't they? (Hmmm, is he a Jrue Holiday replacement or the low-pressure understudy?)

18) Indiana Pacers -- Gogo Bitadze (Republic of Georgia)
Big body. All I know about him is that classic picture of him sharing media day with Zion Williamson (and, well, Zion getting 99% of the attention). Pacers love their big foreigners, looking forward to see how he plays (Summer League?).

19) San Antonio Spurs -- Luka Samanic (Croatia)
He was graded as a 2nd rounder but if the Spurs like him, I bet he can play. Is he gonna be a Porzigis-type?

20) Philadelphia 76ers -- Matisse Thybulle (Washington)
Pac-12 senior that averaged less than 10ppg and had a 2nd round grade throughout the season? I'm a little skeptical but supposedly he's gonna be a great defender. But pairing another non-shooter with Ben Simmons? Still skeptical. (Celtics traded #20 to the Sixers for #24 and #34. I thought the Celtics would take Keldon Johnson here, maybe at 22)

21) Memphis Grizzlies -- Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga)
All around good player, solid athlete, shot blocker. Shweet!  I like this pick. Throw him in with the new-look squad, see if he's got grit and grind. (Thunder traded #21 to the Grizzlies for #23 and a future 2nd rd pick)

22) Boston Celtics -- Grant Williams (Tennessee)
I like Williams (Vols were fierce last season) but I think this is a little high for him and seems like the Celtics are already stacked at forward so I'm not sure this is the best fit. I think he could be good and the Celtics have a ton of picks, so worth a flyer, I reckon.

23) Oklahoma City Thunder -- Darius Bazley (USA)
Don't know him, coming straight out of high school, which is where they found Terrence Ferguson. Is he a Steven Adams replacement? (I can see this guy blowing up Summer League)

24) Phoenix Suns -- Ty Jerome (Virginia)
The Suns need a proper PG (Celtics do, too, a little surprised they shipped him out), Jerome is probably just the first PG they should be looking for tonight. He's from UVA so you know he'll be a hard-nosed defender, we'll see if he can keep up with the NBA pace. (Celtics traded #24 and Aron Baynes to the Suns for the Bucks 2020 1st rd pick--wow, good deal for the Suns: a big body, reasonably priced vet and a promising PG that's better than what they would've gotten with the pick they traded)

25) Portland Trail Blazers -- Nassir Little (North Carolina)
Wow, lottery grade most of the year (though perhaps overrated a bit), slipped a long way on draft night. Good get for the Blazers, is he a Rodney Hood replacement? (Bet he's gonna ball out in Summer League!)

26) Cleveland Cavaliers -- Dylan Windler (Belmont)
Big kid that can shoot off the cut, if he can find his space gotta figure Sexton and Garland will find him for buckets.

27) LA Clippers --Mfiondu Kabengele (Florida State)
Nephew of Dikembe Mutombo, so he's really tall and can block shots. I don't know him, there are questions about his lateral quickness but can shoot 3's. Clippers traded up for him, guess they just want Mutumbo showing up at their games. (Nets traded #27 to the Clippers for #56 and Sixers 2020 1st rd pick)

28) Golden State Warriors -- Jordan Poole (Michigan)
Don't know him. The Warriors must like him because they need this pick to play next year, so whatever they see in Poole, I have to assume they got the guy they wanted. Kinda thought Bol Bol (Oregon) was a good fit here or even Keldon Johnson (Kentucky) as a part-time Klay replacement, a little surprised they went off the board, they really need every reasonably reliable low-priced warm body they can get.

29) San Antonio Spurs -- Keldon Johnson (Kentucky)
The Spurs could use perimeter shooting but I'm not sure KJ is the guy for them (I thought Suns, Celtics and Clippers were better landing spots for Johnson but I guess those teams did not agree). If the Spurs think he's a fit, then I reckon he'll be a fit (though I wouldn't be surprised if his rookie year is more G-League than San Antone).

30) Cleveland Cavaliers -- Kevin Porter Jr (Southern Cal)
Up and down in his one season at USC, talented but raw. The Cavs have completely overhauled their PG and SG positions. These kids'll get to play, looking forward to see if they're any good. (Pistons traded #30 to the Cavs for 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick and cash)

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (1-14)

1) New Orleans Pelicans -- Zion Williamson (Duke)
I don't love him quite as much as the rest of the world does (I'm totally ready to be proven wrong!), but he is clearly the #1 player, #1 prospect, #1 potential badass in this draft. Pelicans are gonna be high in my League Pass rankings next year!

2) Memphis Grizzlies -- Ja Morant (Murray State)
Conley's out, it's Morant's team now. While I'm not a huge fan of bringing in Crowder and Korver, it's nice to start Morant off with a coupla solid vets. I don't expect the Grizz to be good any time soon, so no pressure on him.

3) New York Knicks -- RJ Barrett (Duke)
Was the #1 prospect coming out of high school last year and struck me as the more ready-to-go player on the Duke roster last year. Hard to tell what the Knicks will be adding this summer but the Knicks have a good chance to be wildly better than last year (well, I mean, that shouldn't be that hard). And since I love youth movements, looks like I'll be watching a lot of Knicks this season.

4) Atlanta Hawks -- Deandre Hunter (Virginia)
So they traded up for Hunter. UVA (champs!) has steadily produced disciplined smart players over the years and if Hunter plays smart, he'll be a good foil for Trae Young. Seems like he'll fit in nicely between Huerter and Spellman, the Hawks got the youth movement filled out now--and they're still adding.

5) Cleveland Cavaliers -- Darius Garland (Vanderbilt)
(The Celtics willing to take back JR Smith for this pick?) They say Garland's the next Kyrie Irving (hopefully just on the court), meaning great hands, quick shot, relentlessly attacks the basket. The Cavs just brought in Collin Sexton, can he move to SG?

6) Minnesota T-Wolves -- Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech)
(Wolves just traded for this pick, are they trading it away?) Kinda thought they'd take Coby White, so is this pick future trade bait? Or is Robert Covington the next trade for the Wolves? All I saw of Culver was in the tourney, he played well but he kinda disappeared from time to time, but if he can be a reliable scorer Culver could be a sneaky ROY candidate.

7) Chicago Bulls -- Coby White (North Carolina)
Uhhhh....*sigh*....I don't think this is a good fit. White has great speed but he feels like a project to me and the Bulls are a project team who probably ought to fill out scoring and defense now and just pick up a veteran PG. But, never know, White could be the spark that raises this team up.

8) New Orleans Pelicans -- Jaxson Hayes (Texas)
Thought going for Cam Reddish was the move here, but the Pelicans went for size instead. He's a great finisher around the rim, seems like a nice fit with Zion and Lonzo. I didn't see this one coming but could be a real upside addition for the Pelicans. League Pass!

9) Washington Wizards -- Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga)
Ooh, this is a strangely good pick. I like Hachimura, can score from inside and outside and I like his steady improvement throughout college. Wizards are a dumpster fire so not sure this is the best move for his career but I think he'll play for them right away.

10) Atlanta Hawks -- Cam Reddish (Duke)
Nice! I feel like he's the guy they wanted all along so to pick him up at #10 is a beautiful thing. Reddish kinda disappeared from time to time, but he's a pro now and Trae Young will give him touches. To add Hunter and Reddish on the same night is rocketing Hawks up my League Pass rankings!

11) Phoenix Suns -- Cameron Johnson (North Carolina)
Hmmmm....he topped out at #24 in the mock draft I saw and was most recently a 2nd round projection. So...no idea what the Suns had in mind here. Big for a SF, if he can score (good 3P% in NCAA) he'll get some run, I guess. The Suns did pick up Saric, so while I don't see Johnson making an impact in that lineup, he can take his time developing throughout his rookie year. This is a weird pick.

12) Charlotte Hornets -- PJ Washington (Kentucky)
Hmmm, I figured they'd go for a Tarheel here (like Nassir Little) but I watched a lot of PJ and I liked him a lot and I think he'll be a better pro than a collegian. His comp, and this will be tough to pull off, is Draymond Green: no-nonsense big man who can handle, pass, shoot pretty well but more than anything he can be the guy in control. If the Hornets lose Kemba they'll need a leader and I think PJ can be that guy.

13) Miami Heat -- Tyler Herro (Kentucky)
Herro was nice all year long but played really well in the tourney (in that sense he reminds me of Devin Booker at UK, too, so maybe Herro blows up). Smart kid, bigger than you think, moves well, he'll give the Heat some perimeter shooting. Heat need everything, so Herro's not a bad fit here.

14) Boston Celtics -- Romeo Langford (Indiana)
Nice pick! Langford had been dropping but I was never sure why. If he's healthy I think he'll play hard and score right away (sneaky ROY pick). I think of him as an SG more than a PG, so he might not be a Celtic by the end of the summer because they've got moves to make.

2019 NBA Draft Day Bric-a-Brac

Signings
(Executives)
Blazers re-sign Neil Olshay as President of Basketball Operations through 2023-2024
The Blazers have been better than I thought they'd be for the last coupla years and making the Western Conference Finals this year is pretty badass, so re-upping Olshay seems like an easy call.

Bucks re-signed Jon Horst as GM
Horst had a helluva year in 2018-19 (my Executive of the Year), so getting a raise/bonus/guarantee is well-deserved and a good move for the Bucks.

Wolves named Gianluca Pascucci asst. GM
Guy's got a cool name. Not sure what an asst. GM does (besides wait around for the next GM opening).

Grizzlies named Taylor Jenkins as Head Coach
Jenkins is a young guy and comes from the Budenholzer camp, so the recent Grizzlies executive suite upheaval has resulted in a full-on youth movement on the court and behind the scenes. Good idea? Who knows?

Pelicans extended Alvin Gentry as Head Coach for two more years
Of all the horrible things that have happened to the Pelicans over the last two years, I've never heard anyone suggest that Gentry is to blame, so that alone is worthy of a reward, I reckon. He'll have a whole new look on the court, he's probably just the right guy for the Zion-Lonzo-Ingram line. They'll be fun next year--not sure they'll be any good but they'll be fun.

Cavs hired Lindsay Gottlieb as asst. Coach
Gottlieb comes from coaching the Cal Lady Bears to the NBA sidelines. Good luck! Coach Bielein seems like a good guy to work for.


(Player options exercised)
Marvin Williams (Hornets)
Aron Baynes (Celtics)
Goran Dragic (Heat)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Hornets)
Tyler Johnson (Suns) (?)
Yeah, all of these guys are better off staying put.


(Player options declined)
Kyrie Irving (Celtics)
Jonas Valenciunas (Grizzlies)
James Ennis (Sixers)
Jimmy Butler (Sixers)
Julius Randle (Pelicans)
Khris Middleton (Bucks)
Harrison Barnes (Kings) (?)
Al Horford (Celtics) (?)
Kyrie is gonna get paid; not sure what's up with Ennis, played well in the playoffs so probably looking for good money from a good team (maybe or maybe not the Sixers); JV and Butler (and Harrison Barnes?) are likely gonna get raises from their current teams; Randle is on the move after a solid offensive year (and the imminent arrival of Zion, who looks like Julius 2.0); felt to me like Middleton would be on the move but the latest buzz is that Middleton should get a raise from the Bucks, good move for the Bucks if they can afford it; the Horford plan was to re-sign with the Celtics but the buzz is he'll be on the move--and suddenly the Celtics have a ton of money to spend and look to be big players this summer.


(Team options exercised)
Alonzo Trier (Knicks)
Jahlil Okafor (Pelicans)
A very promising rookie year, cheap contract, Knicks need bodies--yeah, this was always gonna happen.
I actually always thought Okafor had pretty good offensive skills (not so much on the defensive side) and he looked pretty good for most of last year.  And he's a Dukie, get ready for more of those, New Orleans!


(Team options declined)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Nets)
I never understood RHJ's position with the Nets, guess now we know.


(Claimed off waivers)
Rockets nabbed Deyonta Davis after he was waived by the Hawks
Rockets need every cheap body (and roster manipulation) they can find. I thought Davis was a promising prospect but has only bounced around the league so far. Maybe Houston is a good spot for him.


(Retired)
Tony Parker (Hornets)
Hall of Famer. With Kemba possibly on the move, seems like he could've seen some playing time in Charlotte, why walk away now?


Trades
Hawks get Allen Crabbe, #17 pick, 2020 1st rd pick; Nets get Tauren Waller-Prince, 2021 2nd rd pick
Hawks take on some salary and get a coupla 1st rounders (though I suspect that 2020 pick is well protected) in return. Not bad. If Crabbe is healthy, he can blend into the Hawks youth movement for a year--and never know, man, Crabbe might bounce back and be great off the bench for the Hawks. Worth a look.
I kinda like Waller-Prince but the Hawks are gonna be paying a lot of youngsters soon, I guess they considered him low priority. The Nets save some money and throw another body in the rotation and the Nets don't care about draft picks because they fancy themselves a free agent destination (though they just shipped out the best signing they ever made (*).

Lakers get Anthony Davis; Pelicans get Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, the #4 pick, Lakers 2021 1st rd pick, 2023 1st rd pick swap, 2024 1st rd pick
Was gonna happen eventually and then eventually happened and now it seems like the Lakers are trying to renegotiate (if I'm the Pelicans I would politely decline and remind the Lakers that I'd rather Anthony Davis than all that LA junk anyway). The Lakers got the guy they want and all it cost them was virtually all of their roster, so how do they get another star and then fill out the roster? Not sure, but I'm guessing it's gonna be reeeeeeeaaaaallllll expensive. Hey, man, Lakers don't care, they're about stars, not basketball and now they're set on stars for the next few years.
The Pelicans basically control the Lakers' next six drafts (I believe there is another pick swap in there) and lifted most of their most recent draft picks (and just said goodbye to another Laker draft pick, Julius Randle). The Lakers are now basically the Pelicans with Lebron and the Pelicans are the Lakers with (hopefully) the patience to actually grow their prospects. Not sure either are guaranteed playoff teams.

Jazz get Mike Conley; Grizzlies get Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, Grayson Allen, the #23 pick, Jazz 2020 1st rd pick
Conley is a good PG, he controls the ball, he leads the team, he knocks down big shots, I think he'll fit just fine with Donovan Mitchell, I wouldn't say this puts the Jazz over the top but next year looks wide open in the West, so maybe it does.
Hmmmm, couldn't the Grizzlies have done better? Crowder and Korver are on the downside and only really valuable on an already good team, Allen has got some Grizzlies grit to him but is hardly a guaranteed rotation guy for them and the #23 pick is meh. Seems like the Celtics would've given a coupla better picks. For as long as they held on to Conley, it feels like they could've held out for a deal that helps them quicker than this.

Bucks get Jon Leuer; Pistons get Tony Snell, the #30 pick
I always kinda liked Leuer, he's slightly cheaper than Snell and while not as good a shooter, probably a better rebounder. Not a huge move for the Bucks but moving on from Snell (who did nothing in the post-season) and the last pick of the 1st round (re: least exciting prospect with higher guaranteed contract) are good moves. They may waive Leuer but I think they'll play him.
Pistons get a little more scoring for a little more money and #30 gives them another chance to bring in a low-cost body to throw in the rotation.

Warriors get #41 pick; Heat get #43 pick; Hawks get Warriors 2024 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick from the Heat, cash from the Heat
The Hawks have 3 good 1st rd picks, went ahead and paid their two 2rd rd picks forward for future picks and everyone's favorite Xmas gift: cash.
Warriors are suddenly in great need of low-cost bodies, wouldn't be surprised to see them find another 2nd rd pick before the night is done.
The Heat might have their eye on someone (do they think  Johntay Porter (Missouri) can turn into something?) and their top heavy salary cap might make them trade heavy this summer, in which case having low-cost bodies on hand is not a bad thing.

Pacers get TJ Warren, the #32 pick; Suns get (straight) cash (homie)
Wow, just an old fashioned straight up salary dump. Good pick up for the Pacers, a very affordable deal for a guy that'll help replace Thaddeus Young. And I like #32, too, as a throw-in (made for Carsen Edwards (Purdue)!). They still have plenty enough cash to do what they need to do this summer (Bogdonavic and Ricky Rubio?).
Suns get a big ol' hole in their lineup (hmmm, a Demarcus Cousins-sized hole?). They've got a ton of money and they still have #6, so expect the Suns to have new faces in the fall.

Hawks get Solomon Hill, #4, #57, 2021 2nd rd pick; Pelicans get #8, #17, #35, Cavs' 2020 1st rd pick
Hawks get to move up in the draft (Darius Garland (Vanderbilt)? I thought they like Cam Reddish (Duke)), two picks for stashing foreign prospects and Solomon Hill (who I'm sure will be waived any second now). If they get the guy they want at #4, then this deal was totally worth it.
Pelicans get rid of their worst contract and though they moved back in the draft, they pick up a coupla extra picks and stand to pick up an extra 1st rd pick if the Cavs are an upside surprise next year (not impossible but not likely). If they were targeting Reddish instead of Garland, they're probably still in line for him and get some bonus picks besides. Good deal for Pelicans.

Wolves get #6; Suns get Dario Saric and #11
I like what the Suns did here. I think Saric can still be really good and with TJ Warren out of the way, Saric slides nicely into that rotation. And since I think this is a 4 man draft, the difference between #6 and #11 isn't huge--Suns can still get Rui Hachimura, for example, who I think should be ranked higher. Obviously it comes down to the pick but this could be a home run for the Suns.
If the Wolves get the guy they want at #6 then its worth it (but if they don't, then they just gave away  a good young defender up for extension this year), so who do they want? Coby White (North Carolina) to replace Jeff Teague next summer?


Feels like more trades are coming but I'll wrap up after the draft.


(*) Couldn't help myself, had to see the Nets' free agents signings since 2013-14 (not a complete list, but pretty close): Jerome Jordan, Darius Morris, Willie Reed, Ryan Boatright, Trevor Booker, Justin Hamilton, Grievis Vasquez, Luis Scola, Joe Harris, Anthony Bennet, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tyler Zeller, Shabazz Napier, (re-signed Joe Harris). Outside of Dinwiddie and Harris, not much to indicate that they're experienced at wheeling and/or dealing. Oh, and actually Crabbe was a sign-and-trade, so he doesn't even actually count.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

2019 Gold Cup (Group Play)

I hadn't planned on recording my thoughts on Gold Cup group play but I have watched all the games (each team has played once), so I might as well.

A
Mexico 7-0 Cuba
Canada 4-0 Martinique

Mexico is clearly the best team in the entire field. Cuba is not the worst but easily in the bottom half of teams. Martinique is probably the worst team in the field, Canada looks good now but I suspect they're not good at all.

Mexico will destroy Canada and Martinique and easily win this group.
Canada/Cuba will battle for 2nd place (Canada is probably better but Cuba seemed a little more dangerous around the goal; Cuba has a puncher's chance but I'll take Canada).
Martinique is going to get destroyed--DE-stroyed--by Mexico and Cuba will likely lay a pasting on them, too.


B
Haiti 2-1 Bermuda
Costa Rica 4-0 Nicaragua

Bermuda dominated the 1st half but Haiti had more big play potential; sure enough Haiti scored on two set plays and left Bermuda behind. Neither of these squads are particularly noteworthy in the long run, though.
Costa Rica handled Nicaragua without much trouble; Costa Rica is generally among the best in CONCACAF so this was a predictable result, meaning I'm not sure how good Costa Rica actually is. Nicaragua is not good.

Costa Rica should beat Haiti and Bermuda and easily win this group.
I don't think Haiti is very good but they are probably better than Nicaragua, so I reckon they'll finished 2nd.
Bermuda was fun to watch, possessed the ball well at times, I think they'll beat Nicaragua.
Nicaragua is not good.


C
El Salvador 1-0 Curacao
Jamaica 3-2 Honduras

El Salvador got the dagger goal right before halftime and made it hold up; El Salvador is savvy and they're good with the ball, usually not a great side but you don't wanna fuck with them. Curacao is roughly the size of Springfield, Missouri, hard to expect them to have a plethora of world class footballers.
Jamaica is always fun to watch, always great athletes, sometimes they're actually good at soccer; hard to tell here because I thought Honduras played with some spunk. I think they're the two best teams in this group.

I think Jamaica beats El Salvador and Curacao, finishes 1st.
I think Honduras beats El Salvador and Curacao, finishes 2nd.
I think El Salvador finishes 3rd.
I think Curacao sounds like a helluva place to visit.


D
Panama 2-0 Trinidad
USA 4-0 Guyana

Personally I kinda thought Trinidad was better than Panama; Panama got two good chances and they finished both of them. But Trinidad's attack felt more dangerous for the most part and they just seemed better with the ball and on the ball. I think both of these squads are gonna be tough for USA to beat.
USA should've won 4-0 and they did, so what does that tell us? I dunno. They did what they should've done so while they have performed the first step, I think the next steps are gonna be tougher and I have no idea if they're ready. Guyana is not good, they play hard, I was impressed that they were still bringing it late in the game, but they're not good.

USA should be better than Panama and Trinidad but I'm just not sure. I beat we draw with Trinidad and then need a result against Panama to move on (because Panama and Trinidad are both gonna use and abuse Guyana). My guess is that we'll draw with Panama, too. So Panama goes through as #1, USA as #2 and Trinidad drops the 3rd (Guyana will be 4th, I am convinced).


In the quarters I got:
Mexico-Haiti (I'll take Mexico)
Costa Rica-Canada (I'll take Costa Rica)
Jamaica-USA (I'll take USA)
Panama-Honduras (I'll take Panama)

(Would that put USA-Mexico in the semis together? I think so but I'm honestly not sure)

Mexico-USA (I'll take Mexico)
Costa Rica-Panama (I'll take Costa Rica)

Mexico-Costa Rica (I'll take Mexico)


Rank them in tiers:

Easily the best team so far
1) Mexico
I guess they could win
2-7) Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras, USA, Panama, Trinidad
Long shot
8-10) El Salvador, Canada, Cuba
No
11-13) Haiti, Nicaragua, Bermuda
No chance they even win a game
14-16) Guyana, Curacao, Martinique


Okay, USA is closer to the top than the bottom but they're in a tough group, so it still might not work out for them. We'll see, still can't tell about this team.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

2019-20 New Orleans Pelicans

2018-19: 33-49
Draft picks: 1,4,37,57

Word is the Pelicans have agreed to trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, the #4 pick and two future 1st round picks (2021 and 2023, I presume). I had already started this but this seems like a good place to re-start--for example, the Pels picked up a sizable trade exception in this deal that could be used before the 2020 draft.

Signed for next season ($82-ish m): Jrue Holiday, Solomon Hill, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, E'Twaun Moore, Josh Hart, Jahlil Okafor, Christian Wood, Frank Jackson, Kenrich Williams, Dairis Bertans
(I'm not exactly sure about that Cap total, it's sorta close to $82m, I reckon)
Could a Holiday trade be next up for the Pels? There are options: Knicks are always looking for a savior, how badly do the Pels want RJ Barrett (at #3) to go with Zion? Or it seems like the Pels and Celtics have been talking lately, seems like the Celtics could use a PG and they got money to spend...At any rate, the Pelicans for the next year are in youth movement mode--not exactly tanking but not expecting to a playoff run. In which case, Holiday's career would be bettered by going elsewhere and the Pelicans are better off riding Ingram, Lonzo, Hart, Frank Jackson and Zion and #4 for next season.
Is now finally the time to stretch and release Solomon Hill? Is he valuable to someone as a throw-in?
Julius Randle seems expendable to me--though I think he's a really underappreciated player!--feels like Zion is gonna get all his minutes next year. Though he's still on a favorable deal, I can see him getting moved this summer.
Ball and Hart will get their chances to play--especially if Holiday is moved.
Ingram is eligible to be re-signed right now, right? Do the Bird rights extend to the Pels after the trade? If so, they should probably go ahead and give him long term money now and just accept that Zion and Ingram (and Okafor?) is their future core.
It is probably time to move on from Moore. This is the last year of his deal, so he's a deal-stuffer or an expiring contract for someone right up to the trade deadline. Decent veteran off the bench, could be valuable for someone's playoff-push next season (Spurs or Pistons, maybe).
I always liked Wood but the way he's bounced around suggests that he is at best a practice player or a Summer League filler.
I liked Jackson and Williams last year, low cost high energy bench guys that could be real fan favorites.
There's another Bertans?


This summer's free agents: Julius Randle, (opted out), Stanley Johnson, Elfird Payton, Darius Miller, Ian Clark, Cheick Diallo, Trevon Bluiett
The Pelicans are not looking to win next year but building for the future suggests they could need a range of low-minute/low-cost guys off the bench. Randle saw himself getting replaced by #1 Zion and bolted, which may have happened anyway: his scoring numbers probably earned him a raise. Johnson and Payton are probably looking for more money or playing time to be on the Pelicans radar. Miller and Clark are nice long-term continuity guys who could be useful for limited minutes or perhaps they are easily replaceable (I can see Miller following Davis to the Lakers, actually). I'd keep Diallo, I thought he was promising enough to earn a 2 or 3 year low cost deal. I liked Bluiett in NCAA, didn't see him with the Pelicans this year.


Draft: Well #1 is gonna be Zion Williamson (Duke), you know it, I know it, the American people know it. And obviously he is the cornerstone of this team for the next 5 years. Now, personally I like Zion but I'm not as high as on him as most; he's a good player, an intriguing player, a watchable player, could be a real cornerstone kinda guy, has a lot of upside and is quite clearly the #1 pick in this draft. That said, I think people are overrating his abilities because of his freakish size. We've never seen anyone of his build move so well out there and, thus, we assume he's going to dominate the shit out of every situation. I don't see it. I think he's good and though his size makes him look unstoppable, basketball isn't necessarily about size and I think Zion will struggle his rookie year as all the vets line up to show him the smackdown (I'm already excited about seeing Chris Paul go up Zion, that'll be a show!). Another kooky irony: I think his game is gonna be like Julius Randle (except that Julius is left-handed), which isn't bad except that the Pels already have a Julius Randle-type (named Julius Randle)--or had one, I should say. So, while I like Zion and he is the obvious pick here, I don't think he re-invents basketball and I can see him struggling in his rookie year. (And greatest prospect of all time? Ohhh, not even close, probably on the edge of my top ten)

#4 pick: Well if RJ Barrett (Duke) is there, expect them to keep the Duke train rolling. Indeed, unless they lose their shit over Darius Garland (Vanderbilt), I wouldn't be super shocked if they drafted if they took Cam Reddish (Duke) at #4. I don't think the guys between 4 and 9 (roughly, Darius Garland (Vanderbilt), Cam Reddish (Duke), Coby White (North Carolina), Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga), DeAndre Hunter (Virginia), Jarret Culver (Texas Tech)) are wildly ahead of the others, so taking Reddish at #4 doesn't seem crazy to me, he was one of the top prospects just a year ago.

The only 2nd round-graded guy that I really liked in NCAA was Carsen Edwards (Purdue) who I think will probably be gone by #37, but if he's there, I suggest the Pelicans jump all over him. As it is #37 and #57 could bring guys like Jalen McDaniels (San Diego State) or Johntay Porter (Missouri).


Next year's lineup (I'm assuming Holiday, Hill and Randle will all be gone): PG Lonzo, SG Ingram, SF Reddish, PF Zion, C Okafor with Jackson, Hart, Williams, Moore, Diallo off the bench; they'll have a trade exception from the Davis trade and plenty of chips to move, so this bench should probably be wildly different by October. Fun lineup, looks like they'll be a running team, don't see them winning much but I'll be watching the shit out of 'em on League Pass.

2019-20 Memphis Grizzlies

2018-19: 33.49
Draft picks: 2

Signed for next season ($119.8m): Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, Jonas Valenciunas, Avery Bradley, Kyle Anderson, CJ Miles, Jaren Jackson, Brunco Caboclo, Ivan Rabb, Dillon Brooks, Jevon Carter
Not all teams think this way, but I'm thinking...TANK! No chance they'll be any good, so might as well take aim at rock bottom. Conley is the best player and greatest star, I'd offer him to the Knicks for Frank Nkiltina and #3 pick. (Boy, the Knicks off-season plans sure tanked lately, huh? #3 ain't gonna do nothing for an empty Knicks squad, go ahead and redeem it for 2 years of a lovable badass and build out your free agent recruiting around Conley as your PG; then re-sign Deandre Jordan, aim for a guy like Patrick Beverley, then let Durant know you still want him...then just pray and remember that even if you get Durant, you're still gonna suck next year) The Grizzlies get rid of their biggest paycheck, get one last look at a maybe re-signable PG, and then start the re-build around Ja Morant and RJ Barrett to go with Jaren Jackson. Keeping Conley looks swell but he won't be able to win now--especially if the Grizz add Ja Morant to that roster instead of a scorer that can help Conley--so now is the time to move on. I think this is a good contract for trying to swipe a high draft pick.
If the Grizzlies could figure out how to make Chandler Parsons disappear, they would invest in that technology. Worst signing of the last decade? (Hmmm...no, it's still John Wall) Can they swap him for a similar expiring contract and then cut him (like, say straight up for Solomon Hill)?
Valenciunas has opted out of his contract--but I think the idea is that the Grizzlies will give him a raise. I didn't see enough of him to know if he fit with Jackson; if so, go ahead and give him 3 yrs/$60m I guess, but you gotta figure he's a bridge to the future, not the future. (And if he wasn't a fit with Jackson, then let him move on)
I suspect they cut Avery Bradley. I can see Bradley hooking on with a team that dreams of the playoffs (Heat or Hornets), He'd just be killing time in Memphis.
I never quite understood why the Grizzlies gave Kyle Anderson the deal they did but they've got him for three more years. He's their 6th man, might as well play him like that (whether he can do it or not).
CJ Miles is probably looking to play well early on and be trade bait by February. I bet the Grizzlies go into the season expecting him to play regular rotation minutes, perhaps even start at SF. If he's good, they trade him (to Golden State for a late 1st rounder or maybe someone like Utah or Denver), if not then they ride out his final year and let him walk.
Jaren Jackson is the cornerstone of the future (along with soon-to-be-picked Ja Morant), give him however many minutes he wants.
I can see them letting Caboclo go but he is still cheap and available for many minutes (and the Grizzlies aren't looking to win games, so...).
I thought Ivan Rabb was gonna be a better pro, I think it's strange how far he...never really got. But he is still young, cheap and he's already in house, so I reckon they'll give him some 2nd string run next season.
Dillon Brooks is still an intriguing young player. He missed all of last year (all of it?) but was promisingly competent in his rookie season. Still young, still intriguing, if he fits with Morant, then he's a keeper.


This summer's free agents: Justin Holiday, Delon Wright, Joakim Noah, Tyler Dorsey
I don't see any of those dudes coming back with Memphis next season. Maybe Holiday but I think he can hook on with a better squad.


Draft: Oh, they're taking Ja Morant (Murray State) at #2. Zion is clearly #1, Morant is clearly #2, I don't see any movement on those two picks before draft day. Morant is an exciting ball handler, play maker and I think he'll grow into a reliable scorer, too (reminds me of Jrue Holiday: pretty good at everything, not bad at anything, maybe even a better athlete than Holiday). And to do it properly he'll need playing time, so it's time for Conley to go.


Next year's lineup:
PG Morant, SG Brooks, SF Parsons, PF Jackson, C Valenciunas with Anderson, Miles, and Caboclo off the bench. That's pretty thin--and that's without Conley or Bradley, both of whom I think will be gone. I don't see any lineup available to them that wins games next season, which is why I'd go ahead and start thinking tank right away. Take what you can get for Conley, Bradley and Parsons (which might not be much), start building around Morant and Jackson and hope the new coach (Taylor Jenkins) is a genius that is loved by his new young stars and think only about trades that involved bringing back 1st round picks.

2019-20 New York Knicks

2018-19: 17-65
Draft picks: 3,55

Signed for next season ($36m): Lance Thomas (not guaranteed), Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr, Kevin Knox, Alonzo Trier, Henry Ellenson, Damyean Dotson, Mitchell Robinson
I think Lance Thomas will be bought out to make room for free agents, while the rest will make a fine 2nd string (or trade bait for non-free agents).
Since Ntilikina is the next highest salary, I would expect him to get involved in any deal they make this summer.
Smith still has time to blossom, I'd give him all the minutes next season.
Knox can't be as bad as he looked last season, I'd give him all the minutes.
Trier looks like a really great 2nd string PG, he's the 6th Man candidate.
Ellenson is a big kid who is reasonably smart and has okay hands. Fine 2nd string guy, he's probably getting 5-15 minutes next year.
I still kinda like Dotson, not a big star, not a lot of minutes, but a decent defensive rotation big man.
Robinson is a potential star (and there's nothing better going on in NYK), give him all the minutes.


This summer's free agents: Deandre Jordan, Mario Hezonja, Emmanual Mudiay, Noah Vonleh, Luke Kornet, John Jenkins, Kadeem Allen, Isaish Hicks, Biully Garrett
I think they bring back Jordan, started taking a lot of criticism in Dallas but I never understood why, I think he's still an effective presence down low. I can see Vonleh coming back, too, if the money is low enough. The rest I think will be elsewhere next year.


Next year's lineup:
Wow, all year long the talk was of the Knicks landing Durant and Kyrie and Zion and then they'd be awesome forever. Well, Zion is not coming, Durant won't be around next year and Kyrie seems to wanna play in Brooklyn instead; and, just for good measure, Demarcus Cousins reinjured his leg and Kemba Walker is said to be headed to the Lakers. So, uh, what do the Knicks have left?

I'll go ahead and throw out a pointless trade idea right here:
Knicks get PG Mike Conley (2yrs/$32.5m next year); Grizzlies get #3 pick, Frank Ntilikina (2yrs/$4.8m next year, team option the year after that)

If I'm the Grizzlies, I'm all about sucking next year, let's get the process working! Their competition for next year is gonna be the pre-season top 5 Memphis Tigers, so the Grizzlies may as well start scouting that badass recruiting class. The Grizzlies can take Ntilikina back as a warm body to replace Conley (and not win games) and to sweeten the deal for the Knicks (to help dump salary).

The Knicks are all about the free agents now, they don't really need that #3 pick--Zion and Morant are one thing but beyond that, they'd be better off with someone like Conley. They can start with 2 years of Conley, give 5 years to Durant, re-sign Jordan (say, 2yrs/$30m?) and still have a ton of space to build around that trio. Personally, I'd aim for Patrick Beverley, Willie Cauley-Stein and Paul Millsap and maybe even Austin Rivers (though I'm guessing JJ Reddick or Tobias Harris or Trevor Ariza would be the sexier targets). Oh well, they'd still have a ton of money even after adding Conley and Durant if they went this route.

That #3 pick gives them a shot at a currently unavailable big star which is a much better get for the Knicks than another rookie that sucks up attention and doesn't get it done (*). The strategy is thus: find a team with one last good star that is ready to start tanking. I don't think that gets them Blake Griffin (Pistons), Chris Paul (Rockets), or Kevin Love (Cavs). But the Grizzlies are gonna suck anyway, sparing Mike Conley seems like the humane thing to do, and getting on to the re-build may as well start now. And Conley, Durant and Deandre with all those youngsters is a good start in the East.

Bringing back Deandre Jordan gives them something like a star to lure others in with. The young players (Smith Jr, Trier, Knox, Dotson, Robinson,even Ellenson could be useful) are a little raggedy but still has promise as a supporting cast. They can still go try for Durant (seemed like a foregone conclusion all year long, now I don't see it happening) and then just try to tank out another year before Durant joins the team. If Durant signs, then they go for another year of short term deals with also-rans of recent drafts: Stanley Johnson, Frank Kaminski, Justin Patton, Jake Layman, Elfrid Peyton, etc. Then aim for another draft pick and a new raft of free agents because they'd still have a pretty flexible roster next summer.

But, man, they thought they were getting Durant and Kyrie and Zion and now they got...what do they got?


(*) Let's be honest: the Knicks, like the Cubs, don't actually need to be any good to make a shit ton of money and suck up all the media chatter. And that whole 'building from the ground up' approach just takes forever, why not go for the gusto? Well....the reason most teams don't do that is because that approach virtually never works. But this is the Knicks, it doesn't matter what they do, they're gonna get all the attention and sell out games even if they're starting Geno Smith at PG.

2019-20 Cleveland Cavaliers

2018-19: 19-63
Draft picks: 5,26

Signed for next season ($134.2m): Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith (non-guaranteed), Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, John Henson, Matthew Dellevadova, Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman, Ante Zizic
I'd be pretty shocked if they go into next year with JR Smith still on the roster. Man, they're still too old and too expensive--the Lebron effect.
They paid Kevin Love (still has 4yrs/$120m) so if they trade him it'll be a big deal--and with Klay and Durant more or less off the market, perhaps he becomes more intriguing to some team out there. I think the plan is to keep trotting him out there as the last remaining hero of the Lebron years until trading him becomes a more heroic story line--could be this summer, but probably next year.
Thompson, Smith, Knight, Clarkson, Henson and Dellevadova are all in the final years of their deals and are now trade chips or the makings of a half-hearted rotation. Any of these guys could be useful to the right playoff team but I don't see that any of them are much use to the Cavs except as trade bait--any 1st round pick will be accepted for any of these guys.
Nance is signed and I think a keeper--although they'd take a 1st rounder for him, too.
I think Osman and Zizic can still be good, they're too young to give up on them yet. I wouldn't expect them to get any playing time until after the trade deadline, when ideally the rest of the roster will be gone.


This summer's free agents: Marquesse Chris, Channing Frye (retired), David Nwaba, Nik Stauskus, Deng Adel, Jaron Blossongame
I never figured out what Chriss does but he's young enough and athletic enough to get another look from someone (Memphis?).
Frye was not a Hall of Famer but he had a good career, a notable career and it's nice to see him get a warm send-off.
They never quite cracked the code of how to use Nwaba but I don't see him coming back, I can see him coming off the bench for a playoff team (Nuggets, Bucks maybe).
I think we've seen the last of Stauskus, cursed by being drafted too high, he's probably off to Europe. Adel and Blossongame will probably be back on 2-way deals next year.


Draft: At #5 I would think they would pass on Coby White (North Carolina) and Darius Garland (Vanderbilt) since they already got a fine rookie season out of Collin Sexton last year. I think they'll aim instead for Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech) or Cam Reddish (Duke). #26 could yield someone like KZ Okpala (Stanford), who would be a worthy addition to the youth movement.


Next year's lineup:
PG Sexton, SG Clarkson, SF Nance, PF Love, C Thompson with a bench of Knight, Dellevadova, Osman, Reddish (?), Henson and Zizic.

Yeah...that's not a super sexy lineup right there. Only Love, Nance, Sexton and the #5 pick are signed past next year, so they got one more overpriced suck year and then they can get into the true post-Lebron phase. Their 2020 1st round pick is top 10 protected, so they've got no need to be any good at all next year. I guess they'd listen to offers for Love but I don't see him moving in the next year unless a can't-miss deal arrives at the trade deadline (ehh, I doubt it).

So is this team any good? Well, they could be if they wanted. That veteran crew right there is not dissimilar to, say, the Pistons; they could take a run at #8 in the East. But why bother? They'd rather suck, keep next year's top 10 pick, shed the dead weight from the roster as the season wears on and start looking at 2020-21 with a whole new eye. So even if this team is any good, I would expect them to trade off every performing player they've got for whatever young players, draft picks and expiring contracts they can get back.

2019-20 Phoenix Suns

2018-19: 19-63
Draft picks: 6,32

Signed for next season ($83.7m): Devin Booker, Tyler Johnson, TJ Warren, Deandre Ayton, Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, Elie Okobo, De'Anthony Melton, Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding
The future is Booker, the future is now.
Johnson has one last year left on his deal; a little pricey but the Suns are fine with one year of his game.
I kinda like Warren and he is signed (3yrs/$34m) to a very favorable deal. I'd play the hell out of him.
Ayton had a promising rookie year, this is the year where they truly figure out what they've got.
I still think Jackson can be a useful rotation guy, especially with Booker and Ayton. I'd play the hell out of him.
Bridges was promising, too, I'd play the hell out of him.
Okobo didn't exactly blow the league away last year but I think he has potential to be better next season. I'd play the hell out of him.
Melton had a surprisingly effective rookie year, I'd play the hell out of him (though I suspect he has the greatest chance of regression).
I don't know what they think they got in Fredette, I just don't see him as an NBA player.
Spalding seems like a nice guy, not sure he's more than a Summer Leaguer, though.


This summer's free agents: Dragan Bender, Troy Daniels, Kelly Oubre, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes
I'd bring back Oubre and Holmes--indeed I thought the moves that brought in those guys were meant to be long-term fixes.
I'd let go of Bender (never figured what that guy does), Daniels and Crawford (OMG, I forgot he was on the Suns last year!).


Draft: I'll start with a pointless trade idea
Celtics get #6 (if Darius Garland (Vanderbilt) falls there); Suns get #14,#20,#22,#51.

If the Celtics can get Garland, it's worth their whole draft tray. They don't really need more young guys that need time, they need one guy that can play right now.

Unless the Suns love Garland--and the Suns are kinda overloaded with ball handlers right now--they should go ahead and just throw more youth on the pile. Who should they draft? Well, the Suns do traditionally love their Kentucky guys, do those three 1st round picks get them PJ Washington, Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro? If so, go ahead and grab 'em. Or how about taking runs at Nicolas Claxton (Georgia) or Chuma Okeke (Auburn) to give them some depth down low. #32 could get them Carsen Edwards (Purdue), the only 2nd rd prospect that intrigues me. #51 could get them a foreign prospect like Josh Obiesie (Germany) or Marcus Louzada (Brazil). Suns might as well keep drafting.


Next year's lineup:
PG Booker, SG Oubre, SF Bridges, PF Warren, C Ayton with Johnson, Jackson, Okobo, Melton and Holmes off the bench. And hope you like it Suns fans because Booker/Oubre/Bridges/Warren/Ayton/Jackson is your 6 man rotation for the next two years at least.

They could use more size and obviously they'll need more depth but this looks like yet another fun/sloppy Suns squad. I don't see that lineup making the playoffs but I don't see it embarrassing the city of Phoenix, either, they'd be fun to watch. The Suns right now are just built to give young players a place to run around, might as well flip #6 for more chances to bring in more youth.

2019-20 Chicago Bulls

2018-19: 22-60
Draft picks: 7,38

Signed for next season ($81m): Otto Porter, Zach LaVine, Cristiano Felicio, Kris Dunn, Lauri Markennen, Wendell Carter, Denzel Valentine, Chandler Hutchinson, Antonio Blakeney
They're paying Otto Porter $27m next season? (Read those words again...did you make a passing-a-kidney-stone sound?)
They're built around Porter-LaVine-Markennen-Carter for the foreseeable future, to go with Dunn, Valentine and Blakeney, each of whom have one more year to earn another deal.


This summer's free agents: Robin Lopez, Wayne Selden, Timothy Luwawu-Cabbarot, Ryan Arcidiacano, Shaq Harrison
I think Robin will be cashing in on Brook's excellent season and will be signing either for big big money or a nice contract for a playoff team (Lakers?), either way I don't see him back with the Bulls. Selden and TLC were trade throw-ins that never really found their footing with the Bulls, I don't anticipate either of them being back next year.
If I were the Bulls I'd keep both Harrison and Arcidiacano but perhaps they can be supersubs for a playoff team (I can see either of those guys coming off the bench for the Raptors) and may not be interested in sticking around.


Draft: If they wanted to get exotic at #7, they could take a flyer on foreign prospect Sekou Doumbouya (France), though if Darius Garland (Vaderbilt) or Coby White (North Carolina) were there, I'd expect them to go in that direction. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go with Cam Reddish (Duke) if he's there.

#38 could bring back Grant Williams (Tennessee), a nice player. I've watched a lot of SEC guys kinda turn into nothing in the pros and I can see that happening to Williams, but I thought he was a badass at Tennessee.


Next year's lineup:
PG Dunn, SG LaVine, SF Porter, PF, Markennen, C Carter with Blakeney, Valentine, Hutchinson, #7 and Felicio off the bench.

I don't see that making the playoffs in the East. They've got $20m to spend but I don't see that bringing in any free agents strong enough to make a difference. Remember a coupla years back when they emptied their roster for tank mode...than signed Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade? Yeah, they're still paying for that nonsense. They're in the worst possible place: not horrible enough to guarantee a worthwhile draft pick and not good enough to make moves to get better. They've got enough cap space to take on a bad deal for a draft pick but I don't even see that out there for them. I don't see a single free agent out there that really matches them or gives them direction for the future; nor is there the perfect trade chip or deal waiting for them. Another annoyingly mediocre year ahead for the Bulls, it looks like.

2019-20 Atlanta Hawks

2018-19: 29-53
Draft picks: 8,10,17,35,41,42

Signed for next season ($56.9m): Kent Bazemore (player option), Allen Crabbe, Miles Plumlee, Trae Young, Alex Len, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, Deandre Bembry, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams
Bringing back last year's team that overachieved looks like the right move and throwing two extra top ten picks just makes it all the more intriguing.
But they went ahead and moved Waller-Prince for Crabbe, taking on a lot of salary and picking up the #17 pick in the bargain (and a protected 2020 1st rd pick, too). Crabbe and Bazemore become their best two trade chips, I wouldn't be surprised if Bazemore moved this summer and then for Crabbe to be available at the trade deadline (although two 1st rounders to get rid of him suggests he's not ready to play?). And if anyone wanted Plumlee, I reckon he can be had.
That said, I liked the Hawks last year and I think they can get going quicker next year and actually compete for a playoff spot--or be in line for an upgrade at the deadline rather than a salary dump.


This summer's free agents: Dewayne Dedmon, Justin Anderson, Vince Carter, Isaac Humphries, Deyonte Davis
I can see the Hawks bringing back Dedmon but I don't see any reason for the Hawks to focus on bringing back any of the others. I'd rather take a run at a guy like Jared Dudley: lovable, hard-working vet to keep the youngsters facing forward.


Draft: First off, 8,10 and 17 feels like a trade chip. If they actually exercised those picks they could end up with, say, Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech), Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga) and Keldon Johnson (Kentucky), which would be a nice haul to go with Trae Young. Perhaps PJ Washington (Kentucky) and Bruno Fernando (Maryland) would be more to their liking just to add some toughness. But, really, I expect a trade for at least two of those picks, so who they got their eye on? (Does any of that get them Gary Harris from Denver?)

Pointless trade idea: Wolves get #17, Miles Plumlee; Hawks get #10, Gorgui Dieng

Wolves get rid of the 2yrs/$34m they owe Dieng for 1yr/$12m for Plumlee, who probably fits what they want to do better anyway. Giving away #11 to get back #17 isn't a huge move, they could still get a shot at Bol Bol (Oregon) for example.

The Hawks get an underappreciated big man who I think fits better with Trae Young than Plumlee does and get to slide up the draft board, too. Take back some salary, get another draft pick, cha ching! (I know, I know: this doesn't look like a great deal for the Hawks, but I'm telling ya: Gorgui can shoot and pairing him with Trae works better then Plumlee)


Next year's lineup:
PG Young, SG Huerter, SF Bazemore, PF Bembry, C Collins with #8, #10, #17, Adams, Crabbe, Spellman, and Len off the bench.

This team was better than they were supposed to be last year suggesting that Trae Young is a for real cornerstone to build around and that Collins, Bembry and Huerter are nice pieces, too. Next season was meant to be another rebuilding year with another batch of rookies to throw in the mix. But because the current lineup is ahead of schedule, the desire is to go ahead and make moves--and they do have a ton of money to spend. Do they swap some combination of #8 and #10 and #17 for a proven player? Does that get them Blake Griffin from the Pistons? Personally, I prefer youth movements and I'd take the picks, go minimal in free agency, let these youngsters figure it out and then go hard for stars next summer (especially since there isn't any particular star that seems to match what they currently need).

But I will make a--potentially godawful--free agent suggestion: go get both of the Morris twins. I'll bet if you take them both as a package you can get them for 4yr/$40m each. It could be that putting these two together is too bizarre to work and it destroys everything and crashes your youth movement and makes everyone hate basketball in Atlanta or it could be that they're so insular that no one even notices them outside of the games. And another--potentially godawful--suggestion: Jimmy Butler. He's either the perfect addition for this scrappy batch of youngsters or he sucks up all the oxygen and destroys the locker room. Are the Hawks ready to roll the dice on that combustible next step or do they sit tight for one more year of youth as they originally planned?

If I'm the Hawks I think I might be willing to overpay for a guy like Danny Green: hard-working vet, just won a championship, endured hard times, had an unorthodox entry into the league, he's another vet that give the youngsters a whole new way of seeing the league, might be really good for that locker room.

2019-20 Washington Wizards

2018-19: 32-50
Draft picks: 9

Signed for next season ($109.1m): John Wall, Bradley Beal, Jabari Parker (team option), Ian Mahinmi, Dwight Howard, Troy Brown
How does that all that cost $109m?
Wall is the most untradeable contract in the League right now, so if he's healthy then Wall will definitely be playing for no one but the Wizards next season.
Beal is a popular trade chip but I think they'd be pretty crazy to let him go unless they got a bomb return.
They could let go of Parker but they'd still need to replace him so I figure he'll play. (If they waive, does he join the Duke party in New Orleans?)
The time has finally arrived to stretch and discard Mahinmi (could they trade him for, say, Ryan Anderson for a waiving?).
Do they actually have Dwight Howard?
I don't know Brown, he needs to play though.


This summer's free agents: Trevor Ariza, Tomas Satoransky, San Dekker, Bobby Portis, Jeff Green, Thomas Bryant, Chasson Randle
Ariza could still command more money than the Wizards have to pay him, I see no way he returns to the Wizards.
They should probably bring back Portis and Satoransky--I'd re-sign Dekker, too, but I suspect they will not.
Does Jeff Green have another year of gettin' dem checks in him?
Bryant and Randle are probably young and cheap enough to be brought back.


Draft: I'm guessing Bruno Fernando (Maryland) is on their radar. Whoever they get here, they'll need him to play rotation minutes right away. Is Sekou Doumbouya (France) ready to play now? I can't see the Wizards spending a top ten pick on a guy that doesn't hit their roster right away.


Next year's lineup:
PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Parker....kinda ends there, doesn't it?
I dunno, man, I don't see how they even put a team together for next season! If they could figure out how to trade Mahinmi for an expiring contract, Beal for multiple draft picks, Wall for 10 players, and Dwight Howard for someone that isn't Dwight Howard, they'd be in business. Man, they've got so many moves to make that I just can't go any further. Yeah, I don't see how any of this works.

2019-20 Minnesota T-Wolves

2018-19: 36-46
Draft picks: 11,43

Signed for next season ($109.1m): Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jeff Teague, Gorgui Dieng, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Josh Okogie, Keita Bates-Diop
Truth is: the Wolves would love for someone to come along and sweet talk them out of Wiggins and Dieng, but I don't think that is happening in either case. And, fwiw, I still think Wiggins can be a really useful player, not a star, yeah he's still overpriced, but a perfectly reasonable 3-and-d guy that can play 2500 minutes per season in his sleep. Yeah, he's not as great as that paycheck and all those draft day expectations suggest, but the dude can play 45 minutes a night without complaint and that's not nothing, teams need guys that eat up innings and Wiggins is plenty good enough for that role (though probably more for some other team than the Wolves).
Towns is the big dog, the stud, the star, the all that.
Teague has one year left on this deal, I think he's still good at getting to the basket, knocking down 3's and keeping turnovers to a minimum; not my fave PG in the league but still a really good player that can go deep in the playoffs. (Is he 2020's Damian Lillard? Nah, prolly not)
I like Dieng and I think there are plenty of teams that he could play for. I can see a lot of those mid-range salary guys getting swapped this summer.
I'm a big fan of Covington and Saric and Okogie and I think the three of them are good for the rotation going forward.
Bates-Diop supposedly was a dude the Wolves loved going into draft day; but I don't remember seeing much of him, I think he was hurt a lot of the season and just ineffective otherwise. Seems built for a big improvement in his second season, we'll see.


This summer's free agents: Taj Gibson, Jerryd Bayless, Anthony Tolliver, Tyus Jones, Luol Deng, Derrick Rose, Cameron Reynolds
I can see them bringing back Taj Gibson and Tyus Jones. Gibson can probably get a better gig for himself, he did good work last year but he's a Thibodeau guy, I can see that being frowned upon. And Jones is a hometown favorite and though I don't think he's better than a 3rd string PG, I think he's maybe the best 3rd string PG in the league, so not a bad thing to have.
I just don't see them making room for Bayless, Tolliver and Deng. Maybe Rose but I suspect he can still get a good deal out there (Lakers?).


I saw a mock draft that has them taking Nasir Little (North Carolina) just head of PJ Washington (Kentucky) and Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga); now personally I prefer Washington and Hachimura to Little but the Wolves could probably use more wing scoring as opposed to another down-low bruiser (unless they're looking to replace Taj Gibson or if they trade Gorgui Dieng). So, I dunno, any one of those three seems about right at #11. At #43, Johntay Porter (Missouri) could be a steal. Or I can see them going continental with Adam Mokoka (France).


Next year's lineup:
PG Teague, SG Covington, SF Wiggins, PF Towns, C Gibson with Okogie, Jones, Saric, Dieng, #11, off the bench.
I feel like this lineup has to play the most efficient game in the world to win--they'll do that every once in a while but somehow I don't really see this team exploding in this current form. I like all these guys but I'm not sure they fit together, this feels like a whole roster of trade bait.

2019-20 Charlotte Hornets

2018-19: 39-43
Draft picks: 12, 36, 52

Signed for next season ($102.5): Nicolas Batum, Bismack Biyombo, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Tony Parker, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, Willy Hernangomez, Dwayne Bacon, Devonte Graham
This a supremely 'okay' supporting cast but waaaaay too expensive. Feels like next summer is the time for a real makeover (especially if Kemba bails). They've got two more years on Batum and Zeller; one more year on Biyombo, Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist; and no more years with Tony Parker, who retired (hmmm, seems like he could've gotten time in a post-Kemba Charlotte, right? So why'd he bail now?).
Malik Monk has moments, looks like he can still turn into a crazy filler-upper (think Rip Hamilton).
Miles Bridges is exciting, if not exactly a dominant player.
I like Hernangomez and Bacon, both look like nice young players to me.
Still not sure on Graham.


This summer's free agents: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, Shelvin Mack
Re-signing Kemba is top priority...and....probably won't happen, not impossible but we'll see. This is the first domino for the Hornets, everything else comes after.
Lamb had some solid moments for the Hornets after a disappointing introduction to the league, not sure if they try to bring him back or move on. If they lose Kemba does that make Lamb imperative or unnecessary?
I suspect they let Kaminsky go. Not bad but just not fleet of foot or confident shooter from the perimeter. (I could see him kicking ass in Europe)
Mack's not coming back. I think he was just a roster manipulation, in which case, I guess he could become useful in the future.


Their best case draft scenario would probably be Nassir Little (North Carolina) at #12. With #36 and #52 I could see them aiming for Kyle Guy (Virginia) or maybe Chuma Okeke (Auburn).


Next year's lineup:
Figure out Kemba, then we figure out the lineup. The whole roster feels like trade bait and they don't feel really solid--with or without Kemba. Without Kemba it is full-on teardown time; with Kemba, you try to wheel and deal mid-level contracts to construct something around Kemba. But until Kemba signs, I have no idea what they do.

2019-20 Miami Heat

2018-19: 39-43
Draft picks: 13

Signed for next season ($129.5m): Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Ryan Anderson, James Johnson, Justice Winslow, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Richardson, Bam Adebayo, Derrick Jones
Whiteside (1yr/$27m), Dragic (1yr/$19.2m), Ryan Anderson (1yr/$15.6m) are all available and I expect none to be there past next summer. I think Dragic can still play, I'm sure somebody thinks they can get a badass season out of Whiteside and even Anderson could totally be a surprise off the bench (how about for the Warriors?) if he gets waived. Since these guys are all trade bait, I reckon the Heat'll try to play them, at least early on.
Johnson (2yrs/$31.3m), Waiters (2yrs/$24.7m), Olynyk (2yrs/$23.7m) are the next tier of guys likely playing for a ticket out of Miami. These contracts are not great but they're not terrible so they may look tasty to somebody out there throughout the year. I think the Heat are just showing off all these guys for the trade deadline.
Winslow (3yr/$39m) and Richardson (3yr/$32.5m) and Adebayo (rookie contract) are the future but if the right deal came along, I can see them getting moved, too.


This summer's free agents: (none)
Dwayne Wade and Udonis Haslem both finally retired, kudos to both for making so god damn much money!


#13 is their only pick and if it could be packaged in a trade, I wouldn't be shocked to see it go. But if they do use it, I'd think Keldon Johnson (Kentucky), Tyler Herro (Kentucky) or Nickael Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech) might interest them here because they could use all the athletic wing scoring they can get.


Next year's lineup:
PG Dragic, SG Richardson, SF Winslow, PF Adebayo, C Whiteside with Jones, Waiters, Anderson, Johnson, Olynyk and #13 off the bench.

There's too many moves for them to make to feel like this is what their lineup will actually look like next year. Say, for example, Kawhi leaves Toronto and the Raptors are ready to tear it all down, could Dragic and Johnson for Lowry be interesting for them? Or how about Waiters and Olynyk for Serge Ibaka? How about swapping Anderson for Ian Mahinmi and then cutting him? Could they tempt the Cavs to give 4 years of Kevin Love for 1 year of Hassan Whiteside? I dunno about any of those moves but they'll be wheeling and dealing this summer, I'm sure.

2019-20 Boston Celtics

2018-19: 49-32 (2nd rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 14,20,22,51

Next year ($123.2.m): Gordon Hayward, Al Horford (player option), Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Aron Baynes, Guerschon Yabusele, Robert Williams, Semi Ojeleye
The Celtics turned from a team with big stars, big expectations, and a mighty war chest into a team with a lot of "nice" players seemingly over night. GM Danny Ainge is the most cutthroat wheeler dealer in the business and yet his mighty haul has turned into lukewarm chocolate milk.
I think Hayward is in line for Comeback Player of the Year, I think without Kyrie, he'll flourish.
I can see Horford opting out (he did so yesterday, as a matter of fact) but actually I think he's got a good thing in Boston, he should take the money and ride it out (although is Kyrie is definitely gone, perhaps he can get a raise from the Celtics). I think he and Hayward can be great together.
Smart is the one of the hardest guys in the game, not always perfect but always gives effort, makes plays and the fans love him. I think he's on a great deal, I wouldn't be eager to trade him.
Tatum and Brown are still fine rising young players, not sure what either of them are just yet. Tatum was great in the playoffs in 2018, I thought Brown was great in the 2019 playoffs, I'd keep them both.
Baynes opted into his deal, I think he's way cheaper than Plumlee and just as good.
Williams could still turn out to be a star (probably more Hassan Whiteside than Mitchell Robinson) and is the only real rim protection the Celtics have, I expect him to steadily get more minutes.
I even like Ojeleye, not indispensable but he gives good effort, he's not a waste of time out there (and kinda the pre-Zion, right?).


Free agents: Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Daniel Theis, Brad Wanamaker
I don't see Morris coming back. No Celtics fans will tell you this but I thought he was basically the only Celtic that played well at all after Game One against the Bucks. But with Brown, Tatum, Horford and Hayward, you gotta feel like the Celtics will get by without Morris just fine.
The Celtics kinda desperately need a play making PG right now, is Rozier that guy? I don't think so. I think rather than re-signing him, they'll go out to the PG free agent market and see what's out there--are they a player for Kemba?; the free agent PG's out there this summer: Rubio, Lin, Austin Rivers, Collison, Rondo, Bayless, Temple, Joseph, D'angelo Russell, Ish Smith, Mudiay, Ron Baker, Elfrid Peyton...hmmm, Rozier doesn't look so bad, huh? They probably need to deal for Mike Conley or Jrue Holiday.
I actually kinda liked both Thies and Wanamaker but they probably both have better options in Europe.


Pointless trade idea: Celtics get #6 (aiming for Darius Garland (Vanderbilt)); Suns get #14,#20,#22,#51.
The Celtics needs a big time PG right now, is Garland that guy? I dunno, but if so then he's more than worth those other picks. Indeed, the Celtics already have a roster loaded with medium-priced talent, they need quality not quantity right now.
The Suns, on the other hand, don't have any particularly place to go this year, so why not throw a bunch more youngsters in the pool and see who swims? They're still a year away from being a year away, I don't see the Suns as a playoff team in 2019-20, so keep the youth movement rolling.


Lineup
PG Rozier, SG Smart, SF Hayward, PF Tatum/Brown, C Horford with Baynes, Yabusele, Williams and some draft pick off the bench.

Not a bad team but that doesn't seem better than 4th in the East. The Celtics suddenly look back with regret at the Kawhi trade that might've happened last summer but I don't think they'll look back at this summer with Anthony Davis in the same way (he wanted to be a Laker, not a Celtic). Not a bad team, one that actually looks like they'll grind through a lot of W's next year but one that will probably get snuffed out in the post-season.

2019-20 Detroit Pistons

2018-19: 41-41 (lost in the 1st rd of the playoffs)
Draft picks: 15,45

Signed for next season ($116.8m): Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer, Langston Galloway, Glenn Robinson, Luke Kennard, Thon Maker, Sy Mykhailiuk, Bruce Brown, Khyri Thomas
This squad is built around Girffin and Drummond for better or worse for two more years and that's not a bad way to go, but it does hamstring the roster for the rest of this season.
I assume this will be the last year in Detroit for Jackson, Leuer, Galloway, Robinson and Maker. They are effectively all auditioning for next summer's free agent market (or to be trade bait for the deadline).
Kennard, Mykhailiuk, Brown and Thomas are the youngsters to keep an eye on. So far each of them seems...okay...which is not gonna be good enough for the Pistons going forward. I expect the Pistons to completely clean house next summer.


This summer's free agents: Ish Smith, Zaza Pachulia, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington
Pachulia is probably done but Smith, Calderon and Ellington can still be effective players in the right circumstance, but I suppose Detroit is not that circumstance for any of these guys.


In the draft, if they end up with Romeo Langford (Indiana) and Johntay Porter (Missouri) that'd be a pretty good night. They're not looking to fill any particular position, they need to grab the best talent available regardless of position.


Next year's lineup:
PG Jackson, SG Kennard, SF Robinson, PF Griffin, C Drummond with Thomas, Mykhailiuk, Galloway, Maker and Leuer off the bench.

That's maybe good enough for 8th in the East but I don't see that squad getting further than that. I'd suggest they tank and get a good draft pick except that the Pistons haven't drafted particularly well over the years, may as well try to be a playoff team.

2019-20 Orlando Magic

2018-19: 42-40 (lost in the 1st rd of the playoffs)
Draft picks: 16, 46

Signed for next season ($85.4m): Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Timofey Mozgov, Markelle Fultz, DJ Augustin, Jonathon Isaac, Mo Bamba, Wesley Iwundu, Melvin Frazier
Is Gordon a star? He looks like a star but he has yet to really play like one. He needs to be paired with another badass....can Fultz be that badass?
Fournier is a nice player, reliable ball handler and good shooter. That contract seemed expensive at first but actually seems about right now.
I suspect Mozgov will be off the roster (and out of the league) by the beginning of the year.
Fultz...well, I guess we'll finally find out, right? If he's awesome it could be an amazing lift for the Magic, who made the playoffs last year--and took a game off the champs! But, if Fultz does nothing, then well, he'll do nothing.
Augustin is still a reliable vet (hmmmm....feels like a Laker, right?). If Fultz emerges, then Augustin might find himself coming off the bench for a playoff team by the end of the season.
Issac, Bamba and Iwundu each have their moments of looking like for-real badasses...but then also they have moments where they don't. Frazier, too, could still develop. There's a lot of potential in this lineup, we'll see if it turns into anything.


This summer's free agents: Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross, Jerian Grant, Jarell Martin, Khem Birch
I don't think they'll be able to afford Vucevic (I'm thinking Mavs) or Ross (I can see him on the Warriors). Nor do I see them bringing back Grant or Martin.
Birch, on the other hand, gave them good minutes and isn't expensive, so I reckon he'll be in the Magic rotation for a coupla years.


My gut is that the Magic should roll the dice on foreign prospects as much as possible, so if  Sekou Doumbouye (France) falls, I think the Magic should go after him hard. If not, they'd do well to pick up PJ Washington (Kentucky). And #46, again, a foreigner like Luka Samanic (Croatia) might be the most intriguing pick.


Next year's lineup:
PG Augustin (til Fultz shows up), SG Fournier, SF Gordon, PF Isaac, C Bamba with Frazier, Iwundu and #16 off the bench.

Not a lot of depth but obviously they haven't even started filling out their summer roster, hard to tell at this point whether they keep Vucevic or how they replace him, and whether they see Augustin and/or Fournier as trade bait or who they pick up in the draft. Lot of work to do for the Magic this summer but there is an intriguing core already in place.

2019-20 Indiana Pacers

2018-19: 48-34 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 18,50

Signed for next season ($60.1m): Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, Doug McDermott, Domantas Sabonis, TJ Leaf, Aaron Holiday, Edmond Sumner, Alize Johnson
They really missed Oladipo in the playoffs--I was impressed how well they played without him throughout the season. A healthy Oladipo is the first step for this team.
Turner is a still-getting-better big man who scores a little and plays solid D.
McDermott can knock down corner 3's.
Sabonis is a smart player, good fit for the Pacers, still improving, too.
I dunno know enough about Leaf, Holiday, Sumner or Johnson, not sure how they factor into the Pacers' plans.


This summer's free agents: Thaddeus Young, Tyreke Evans, Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Kyle O'Quinn, Wesley Matthews
The Pacers are in my League Pass blackout zone, so I don't have much of a feel for this squad at all or how hard they'll charge at re-signing any of these dudes but my gut feeling is: I think they have to bring back Bogdanovic and Collison, I think they'd like to bring back Joseph and Matthews, I don't think they'll bring back Young, I have no idea about O'Quinn and Evans has been banned by the league (so no discussion necessary).


#18 is tough to figure, in that zone where the players are a mix of overrated and underrated. Guess they'd want Romeo Langford (Indiana), right? Tough to pass up scoring like Nickiel Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech), but I'm guessing they'll go for size like Bruno Fernando (Maryland) or they'd jump all over Bol Bol (Oregon), I reckon. At #50, maybe they nab Louis King (Oregon) for a little Pac-12 flavor.


Next year's lineup:
PG Oladipo, SG Bogdanovic, SF Matthews, PF Sabonis, C Turner with Collison, Leaf, McDermott, Holiday, Sumner and #18 off the bench.
Not a deep team but a smart, savvy squad where Oladipo sets the standard for everyone else. If they stay healthy, they should be 4th or 5th in the East (hard to imagine Orlando or Detroit getting ahead of them, but also hard to imagine the Pacers catching up to the Sixers or even the Celtics).

2019-20 San Antonio Spurs

2018-19: 48-35 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 19,29,49

Signed for next season ($97.7m): DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills, Davis Bertans, Marco Belinello, Jakob Poetl, Bryn Forbes, Lonnie Walker, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White
DeRozan and Aldridge is a good bedrock and I like what Mills, Bertans, Belinelli and Poetl give them off the bench. But it feels like it is finally time for Murray (injured last summer) to blow up and become whatever it is he's going to become for this team to move forward. They've got a hard working supporting cast (Forbes, Walker, White) and with their hard-nosed play paired with DeRozan and Aldridge, the Spurs could be really good (or they can be real mediocre, we'll see).


This summer's free agents: Rudy Gay, Dante Cunningham, Quincy Pondexter, Chimezie Metu, Donatas Motiejunas
I don't think Rudy Gay comes back. He feels like a Laker or Warrior to me.
Cunningham and Pondexter are reliable vets, if the price is low enough they'll be somewhere in the NBA next season, maybe even San Antonio.
Metu never developed, feels like his NBA time has passed.
I always liked Motiejunas, would've been a perfect Spur in his prime, but feels like his time has passed, too.


At #19 I think they'd jump on Goga Bitadze (Republic of Georgia) if he's still there, and he might be. At #29 I can see them taking Chuma Okeke (Auburn). And at #49, unless they've got their eye on some underappreciated collegian, I figure they'll take a European like Adam Mokoka (France) or Josh Obiesie (Germany).


Next year's lineup:
PG Murray, SG DeRozen, SF White, PF Poetl, C Aldridge with Mills, Forbes, Belinelli, Bertans, Walker and #19 off the bench.

They'll need more bench depth but this is a 'system' team with DeRozan and Aldridge to anchor it, so they should be pretty good, even in the crowded West.

2019-20 Oklahoma City Thunder

2018-19: 49-33 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 21

Signed for next season ($146.8m): Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder, Andre Roberson, Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Hamidou Diallo
This squad is pretty well ready to go--expensive as hell, but complete. The move to make is trade Steven Adams and his ginormous paycheck, but getting back something that matches their needs is not going to be easy, so I figure they'll just run this team back next season.


This summer's free agents: Raymond Felton, Nerlens Noel (player option), Markieff Morris, Jawun Evans
They don't really need Felton or Morris, so I don't see any reason to bring them back.
Nerlens has a player option and a smaller paycheck than he can probably get elsewhere (Lakers, Knicks immediately come to mind), so I bet he's gone.
The Thunder will need to fill out their roster but they'll be looking for extremely low cost filler at the back end of that bench, which might include Evans but I suspect he can make more money elsewhere (Clippers, Lakers, Hornets, Grizzlies).


In this draft I think they should be looking for defense considering that Roberson, Patterson and Noel will likely be gone within the year. I don't know these recruits well enough but does that suggest Eric Paschall (Villanova) or Nicolas Claxton (Georgia) or Ty Jerome (Virginia)? I dunno but those seem like three guys in that range.


Next year's lineup:
PG Westbrook, SG Roberson, SF George, PF Noel, C Adams with Shroder, Ferguson, Diallo, Nader, Grant, and Patterson off the bench.

All depends on how badly this team wants to get cheaper for next year. The rest of the roster-fillers will be low-cost players, but if they move Adams that will bring significant changes to the roster (not saying they won't/can't trade Adams but I didn't see any deals out there right now that look particularly appealing).

2019-20 Utah Jazz

2018-19: 50-32 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 23, 53

Signed for next season ($92.2m): Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Joe Ingles, Dante Exum, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, Donovan Mitchell, Grayson Allen, Raul Neto, Tony Bradley, Georges Niang, Royce O'Neale
Not sure how they replace Ricky Rubio but otherwise this squad is pretty well complete. Mitchell is the center of the action, good size for defense, good shooting, the rest of the regulars are well-coached and don't turn the ball over too much.


This summer's free agents: Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Ekpe Udoh
I suspect they bring back Rubio. Not that he's irreplaceable but when you look at the free agent PG's out there, I don't see anyone that matches their price point or their style any better than Rubio. He's not perfect but he's a good player, he fits their style and its good to reward the players that want to stay (especially for Utah). So while I wouldn't be shocked if they let Rubio go, nor would I be shocked if they brought him back.
Sefolosha never quite worked in Utah, the injury bug kept him from really reaching his potential in this rotation.
Udoh...not sure how that guy ever ended up back in the NBA, anyway. I could say there's no reason for the Jazz to bring him back, but there was never a reason to bring him in to begin with, so...I dunno.


A mock draft I saw had the Jazz getting Romeo Langford (Indiana) at #23 and if so, I think that'd be a great pick for the Jazz. I like Langford, his stock has fallen somewhat but I think he's gonna be a reliable scorer at the next level and, though they could use more size off the bench, the Jazz always need more scoring. 2nd rd picks for Utah should basically always be used on foreign players, right? So I guess they'd jump on Adam Mokoka (France), Josh Obeisie (Germany) or Marcos Louzada (Brazil), all of whom seem like they could be good wing scorers.


Next year's lineup:
PG Mitchell, SG Ingles, SF Crowder, PF Favors, C Gobert with Exum, Neto, Korver, Allen, Bradley and Niang off the bench.

They could use more depth--thus bringing back Rubio--but they could use more size, too (any interest in bringing back Trey Lyles? Or how about taking flyers on Frank Kaminsky or Dragan Bender or Marquisse Chris?). The Jazz have moves to make around the edges but I think the core is in place and ready to go.

2019-20 Philadelphia 76ers

2018-19: 51-31 (2nd rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 24, 33, 34, 44, 54

Signed for next season ($67.5m): Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Jonathon Simmons, Zhaire Smith, Jonah Bolden
Embiid, check. Ben Simmons, check.
Remember when Jonathon Simmons was an exciting young mid-range scorer with the Spurs? Where did that guy go? Why isn't he of any use at all any more? And how do the Sixers get rid of him?
Didn't see much of Zhaire Smith last season. And what I saw of Bolden was okay, but he seems like a real knucklehead (those guys can be useful but you gotta keep an eye on them).


This summer's free agents: Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, Boban Marjanovic, James Ennis, Mike Scott, Amir Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Greg Monroe
Watching the Sixers during the regular season I thought to myself, 'Hmmm, I kinda liked Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris together...'. But come playoff team, it was clear that the Sixers were a Butler-Embiid team not a Simmons-Harris team. To that end, I expect them to break the bank to keep Butler and let Harris go (and perhaps take offers for Simmons).
JJ Reddick has been a fixture of the Process years and I can see them bringing him back, but I never found him to be so integral to those teams, so I can see him finding more money elsewhere.
I don't see Boban coming back. Interesting player but not an obviously superior player.
I kinda liked Ennis in the playoffs last year, definitely earned himself a contract somewhere--maybe not Philly, though.
I kinda like Mike Scott, not sure how much Philly liked him.
Johnson has been a serviceable backup big man through the Process years, if his price tag goes down, I can definitely see him back with Philly.
I liked what I saw of Korkmaz but there just wasn't enough room for in that lineup. I reckon he goes to Europe for a year or two before trying to return to the NBA.
The Sixers would be foolish to let McConnell get away. Look: you need a 2nd string PG, you need a guy that keeps the offense going when your stars are on the bench and McConnell does that as well as anyone in the league! Yes, he's only gonna play 10-15 minutes per game but someone has to play those minutes and McConnell is the best available. (I thought the Sixers should've locked him up long term last summer--and I still think they should lock him up because he's perfect for them!)
I don't see how Monroe returns next year.


Still got that Hinkie taste for 2nd rd picks, so the Sixers have a ton of picks overall (24, 33, 34, 44, 54). I reckon they'll be looking to trade those 2nd rd picks for future 2nd rd picks (also straight from the Hinkie playbook--why did they run him out of town again?). I have no idea how they'll draft but it looks like they've got a shot at guys like Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Naz Reid (LSU), Daniel Gafford (Arkansas), Jordan Bone (Tennessee) and a handful of foreign prospects. Again, I expect them to trade those picks forward rather than come up with anyone that will join next year's roster.


Next year's lineup:
PG Simmons, SF Butler, C Embiid....after that I'm not sure.

I can see them bringing back Reddick, McConnell, Johnson, Ennis and Scott but I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole new collection in there, too. So I dunno what they got going on for next season past those core three.

2019-20 Portland Trail Blazers

2018-19: 53-29 (Conference finals runner-up)
Draft picks: 25

Signed for next season ($126m): Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Evan Turner, Jusuf Nurkic, Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Zach Collins, Skal Labisserie, Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent
This squad made the Western Conference final and while I don't think it was a fluke, I do think it will be really hard to repeat because the West will have 5-6 tough outs in next year's playoffs. The Blazers are already over the cap and while they pretty much have their team ready to go, they will have to replace or re-sign some of the supporting cast.


This summer's free agents: Al-Farouq Aminu, Rodney Hood, Seth Curry, Jake Layman, Enes Kanter
All of these guys contributed...a little....none of them are irreplaceable but the aggregate will need an overhaul.
I like Aminu--fun fact that everyone seems to forget about Aminu: he was the last guy to shut down James Harden (Rockets over Mavs in 2015, Aminu made Harden work), which ought to make him valuable to the Rockets if no one else. I can see Aminu with the Lakers, Nuggets or Jazz, maybe even Mavs or Pelicans. He'll work somewhere and probably get paid at least as well as Portland, so I don't figure he'll be back.
Hood was a rental and though he played pretty well, I don't see him coming back either (perhaps to the Pelicans, the new home of Duke recruits).
Curry is a fascinating player to have on your roster, I got a feeling the Mavs bring him back.
Layman had moments and the Blazers have a much better opinion of him than I could, so if they want him back I reckon he'll be back.
Kanter, too, was a rental and wants probably a lot more than the Blazers would give (kinda thought Kanter would be perfect for the Nuggets if they move on from Millsap).


#25 is not the sexiest pick in the draft but it could bring back a nice prospect like Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga), if he can defend like Aminu and shoot like Hood, he'd be a perfect fit.


Next year's lineup:
PG Lillard, SG McCollum, SF Turner, PF Nurkic, C Collins with Simons, Trent, Leonard, Harkless, Labissierie off the bench.

Lillard has been phenomenal the last two years, if he keeps the prime going, the Blazers will be good and have a shot in the West. I'd put the Blazers 4th-5th in the West for now.