Raptors (58) Clippers (61)
Bulls (57) Spurs (60)
Cavs (56) Mavs (57)
Wizards (52) Warriors (56)
Hawks (46) Grizzlies (52)
Hornets (45) Suns (50)
Heat (43) Thunder (48)
Knicks (38) Rockets (45)
Nets (36) Blazers (44)
Pistons (35) Pelicans (39)
Bucks (34) Nuggets (38)
Magic (26) Jazz (30)
Celtics (24) Wolves (27)
Pacers (22) Kings (27)
Sixers (10) Lakers (22)
EAST
Raptors -- I think the Raptors hit the ground running this year (a la the Pacers last year). The Raptors didn't play their best basketball until the end of the year and they are returning the whole band with a bonus Lou Williams. I think they win early and challenge for the #1 seed all year.
Bulls -- The Bulls have a lot of question marks but last year showed that they can still win games with virtually nothing at all! So however this roster turns out I think the Bulls will still win most of their games. If they really come together, they can win it all; even if they don't come together I think they're top 4 in the East and dangerous in the playoffs.
Cavs -- This is a team built for the playoffs, don't think they're that concerned about seeding. They'll have their growing pains, Love and Kyrie have to adjust to each other, Thompson and Waiters have to figure out their place, Coach Blatt will have to figure out how NBA teams work (I think the game won't flummox him but how to handle an NBA roster is brand new territory). They'll be fine come playoff time but they might have some brutally awful moments this year. I can see the Wizards and Raptors ahead of them going into the playoffs.
Wizards -- They seem best equipped to handle whatever comes along, the seemingly perfect mix of veterans (Pierce, Nene, Butler, Miller), grizzled dirty work guys (Gortat, Blair, Humphries) and young pups on the way up (Wall, Beal, Porter). If they get the right amount of growth to go with the right amount of expected production, they might win a lot of games in the regular season (though the playoffs will be a brand new learning experience for this crew).
Hawks -- They made the playoffs last year without Al Horford or any expectation of success. Millsapp's in a contract year, Teague is ready to step forward, Horford wants a big return, Korver didn't make the FIBA squad (is this motivating him? I thought he should've made it). They've got a nice core in place (for the East) and they've even got some potential upside. I think they can find success quicker than the Hornets or Heat.
Hornets -- I like the buzz Charlotte is trying to build, nice for them. But I'm not sure they were actually any good last year and I'm not convinced they'll be much better. I don't think they get worse though so I figure 6th is about where they should be.
Heat -- An interesting team, a lot of re-adjusting going on but with plenty of upside. Chris Bosh is a possible MVP contender (long shot because the Heat will be so far from the top but if his output is truly impressive he'll get consideration). The Heat have enough vets to get by in the East, could be a surprisingly good team.
Knicks -- Well...somebody had to be 8th. I think the Nets are a mess, the Pistons aren't going to be consistent enough to win many games, the Bucks will be way better than last year and still nowhere near a playoff race, the Magic are interesting kids but not many wins, the Celtics could be dangerously bad, the Pacers had no offense before but now they've got even less than none, the Sixers don't even wanna win. So that leaves the Knicks. They've got Melo and a whole new outlook on the game of basketball but not much else. They could make deals during the season, I suppose, but really I think Melo and just about any supporting cast should make 8th in the East, so I'll bite.
WEST
Clippers -- I think the Clippers play balls out all year long and take the top spot in the West. I think the core is in place and they all have great years: Jordan gets a big money deal from LAC next summer, CP3 restores himself as the best PG in the league, I think Blake wins MVP and Doc wins Coach of the Year. I think they grind themselves down and falter in the playoffs but throughout the regular season I expect the Clippers to challenge the Spurs.
Spurs -- They've mastered the regular season but I think winning the championship is all they care about: part of winning the playoffs is letting the Clippers punch themselves out during the regular season. Even coming in 2nd will look like a masterstroke.
Mavericks -- This team is perhaps more susceptible to injuries than most but I think barring that, they've got a really good rotation that will win more games than they probably should. I think they're better than the Rockets and Thunder (two teams that have deviled them over the years), they can still handle the up-and-comers (Suns, Pelicans), they'll feast on the lowlier teams, Pau and Love have moved East, all the East stars stayed in the East, everything's coming up Mavericks! I don't think they go too deep in the playoffs but this regular season could be a monster for them.
Warriors -- I think they get it all worked out, the defense comes together a little bit more, Shaun Livingston does wonders off the bench, and they win many games. In the loaded West I'm not sure how deep they go in the playoffs, but I think night in/night out they'll be one of the better teams in the league.
Grizzlies -- The Grizz started so slow last year and still gashed their way into the playoffs. I expect they'll be better this year, challenge the Warriors for 5th in the West. This is one of those teams that know who they are, know they fit together, but could probably still use some more offense. A good team, a hard working, industrious team, they'll be a tough out for anyone.
Suns -- Some say this PG-heavy offense is too unorthodox but I disagree. I think they are a rhythm team and with an excess of quality PG's they keep humming game after game. They won't sneak up on people like they did last year but they also come in with a whole new kind of confidence than last year. I think the style catches on and they ride enough win streaks into the playoffs.
Thunder -- I swear I made this projection before Westbrook hurt his thumb but that only reinforces my worries about their precarious lack of depth. With Durant instead of Westbrook the Thunder still got W's but with Westbrook instead of Durant I'm not sure that's the case. They could really struggle until Xmas. Not unlike the Grizzlies last year, I can see them slowly building up as the season goes on, trying to make some noise in the playoffs (Spurs-Thunder in the 1st round?).
Rockets -- Harden is MVP-capable and Howard is still one of the best at what he does. Not a fan of the supporting cast or the coach but I reckon they'll win enough to make the playoffs. And when they'll do, they could overachieve--look out Clippers!
Friday, October 31, 2014
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
NBA: League Pass Power Rankings (pre-season) (part 1)
Lowe and Simmons have a piece up currently about their League Pass rankings. While I didn't particularly agree with their choices, I thought it a good idea to organize one's precious basketball watching time. I don't have a favorite team, I grew watching college b-ball (go Cats!). So I arrive relatively unbiased and rather than sucking up to one team like a groveling hooligan, I come to League Pass wanting only to see the finest basketball on the planet come playoff time. I also want to see who develops, which rosters come together, which players take a leap forward, which coaches get a better handle on the game which general managers make the smartest/luckiest moves within their organization. I want to find the next as much as I want to study the now. I don't want to watch the winners over and over or just the big stars. I'm more into the up-and-comers and the supporting players anyway. That means watching a lot of provincial basketball. I'm down for that.
So here's a League Pass Power Ranking by conference. I'm not suggesting which teams are best and worst just which are most entertaining to me right now. I'll update this ranking the first week of every month.
East
Bucks, Magic, Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, Hawks, Hornets, Pistons, Heat, Bulls, Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Celtics, Sixers
West
Suns, Pelicans, T-Wolves, Thunder, Mavs, Warriors, Jazz, Spurs, Kings, Nuggets, Clippers, Blazers, Grizzlies, Rockets, Lakers
I'll find new teams to fall into but for not I'll stick with last year's favorite, the Suns. Wonder how long they stay in my top spot.
NBA: League Pass Power Rankings (pre-season)(part 2)
Can't wait (1)
Suns -- Loved watching them play last year, Dragic was a maestro, Hornacek kept the rotations smooth, never seen such a collection of Most Improved/Best Comeback candidates on one roster. Bledsoe was magic, you could tell he was getting this NBA thing down but even when he was out, the Suns just kept humming. On good nights they'd catch some team slipping, spend the whole 2nd half just trying to get on Sportscenter. Damn. Bummed they didn't make the playoffs, they would've given the Spurs a better challenge than you think. I still like this team going forward, I think they'll miss Frye more than they realize but once they get their groove going, I think they'll be pretty good, make the playoffs and be one of the most exciting teams in the League.
Totally fascinated by (2-7)
Bucks -- This team has more cheap thrills than a traveling carnival. Curious to see if Jabari takes ROY (I suspect he will), if Greek Freak is indeed the most exciting player in the League, if Sanders can be promising again, if Henson can be something like the star I think he can be, if Brandon Knight can lead this team, if Mayo can get back into playing shape, if Dudley, Bayless and Marshall can contribute off the bench. And with Jason Kidd as the coach? Man, they've got a built-in wacky neighbor! This roster is not as bad as they were last year, they should improve just by walking on the court. But with the excitement of Jabari, the growth of Antetokounpo and just general maturation all around, I think they can be pretty good. I'm starting to see them sliding into the 8th spot in the East.
Magic -- They've got so many young assets to keep an eye on. I'm buying the hype on Payton, I'm curious to see Gordon, I think Olapdipo will increase his efficiency, I think Frye was a good pick up. They've got 3 guys going into free agency (Harris, Vucevic, O'Quinn), 3 more playing into their options (Harkless, Nicholson, Fournier), 1 cut from his rookie deal (Peyton Siva); that's a lot of hungry young players that will be bringing it every night. I think the coach might be the first to get fired, I'm mystified by the signings of Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour and with a team this young you don't expect them to be crisp in the 4th quarter against for-real professional ballers. So I doubt they'll win too many games or challenge for the 8th spot in the East, but they'll play hard erry night and some of these youngsters will emerge.
Pelicans -- Two words: Anthony Davis. One of the most exciting unique players of my lifetime and he's only getting better. I like the addition of Asik, and Anderson, Holiday and Evans make for a nice starting five. But bench depth is not so good with Eric Gordon swamping the salary cap and Austin Rivers just not living up to the hype. And the coach could be embattled early on. But if they can stay afloat I'd like to see the Pelicans makes some moves to upgrade the roster. If they lose badly it could get depressing; but if they win, they'll be one of the best teams to watch all year.
T-Wolves -- This is basically a brand new team: 2 rookies (Wiggins, Lavine), 3 rookies from last year that should've played more (Bennett, Dieng, Muhammad), 1 new trade piece (Young), 1 new free agent (Williams) and a C that was hurt most of last year. The landscape has changed considerably from just 6 months ago. Out is Love, and rumors are swirling around Budinger, Barea and Martin. This is Rubio's team now, there is no second option, he's in the diver's seat, it's hero time for Rubio. Now that he's got a bunch of new targets to assist, I think he'll do just fine, I think the team will be fun to watch and by the end of the year I bet they'll actually be pretty good. But early on I think they'll be terrible, slumping rookies, chemistry issues, trade rumors, veteran coach trying to hold it together, etc. But I bet after the all-star break they'll figure it out and come back sexy next year. No way they make the playoffs this year but watching them figure out what they've got should be kinda cool.
Jazz -- All about the youth movement, who's gonna blossom and who's getting shipped out. The Jazz aren't a prime destination for free agents and draft picks are generally better as trade bait than building blocks. They have to trade for their stars and by next summer they should have enough assets to make a run at a semi-star or two to mold into this core. Favors and Hayward would appear to be in the core (or the most valuable trade chips of all) and figure Exum has 1-2 years to figure it out. So between Kanter, Burke, Burks and Gobert, who stays in the core and who gets moved on? I like all these players, doubt they'll win many games, no idea the answer to the previous question but they'll play hard and these names will be fodder for next summer.
Kings -- Its gonna be fun to watch Cousins...do whatever he's gonna do! I reckon the King'll still suck, off the top of my head I have no idea who the Kings coach is, but Cousins will be a monster and FIBA got me hankering to see if ol' Rudy comes out. They'll be a trainwreck but they'll be a fun trainwreck.
Eastern playoff-seeding carousel (8-13)
Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, Hawks, Heat, Hornets -- I'll be in and out with these teams from beginning to end, I reckon. I think they're all gonna be good but I'm not sure how good or how long it'll take to get good because they've all gone through major changes since May (except the Raptors who are surprisingly unchanged). They each have their own drama but they'll be rubbing up against each other all year long. How they shake out will be cool to see.
Western curiosities (14-15)
Mavs, Warriors -- They'll both be good, I think better than last year. They'll score, they'll play tough games into the 4th quarter every night, they'll win games they were supposed to lose. But they're both sloppy, inconsistent, they're gonna lose games they ought to win. Fortunately, they'll be good to watch whether they're winning or losing.
Suns -- Loved watching them play last year, Dragic was a maestro, Hornacek kept the rotations smooth, never seen such a collection of Most Improved/Best Comeback candidates on one roster. Bledsoe was magic, you could tell he was getting this NBA thing down but even when he was out, the Suns just kept humming. On good nights they'd catch some team slipping, spend the whole 2nd half just trying to get on Sportscenter. Damn. Bummed they didn't make the playoffs, they would've given the Spurs a better challenge than you think. I still like this team going forward, I think they'll miss Frye more than they realize but once they get their groove going, I think they'll be pretty good, make the playoffs and be one of the most exciting teams in the League.
Totally fascinated by (2-7)
Bucks -- This team has more cheap thrills than a traveling carnival. Curious to see if Jabari takes ROY (I suspect he will), if Greek Freak is indeed the most exciting player in the League, if Sanders can be promising again, if Henson can be something like the star I think he can be, if Brandon Knight can lead this team, if Mayo can get back into playing shape, if Dudley, Bayless and Marshall can contribute off the bench. And with Jason Kidd as the coach? Man, they've got a built-in wacky neighbor! This roster is not as bad as they were last year, they should improve just by walking on the court. But with the excitement of Jabari, the growth of Antetokounpo and just general maturation all around, I think they can be pretty good. I'm starting to see them sliding into the 8th spot in the East.
Magic -- They've got so many young assets to keep an eye on. I'm buying the hype on Payton, I'm curious to see Gordon, I think Olapdipo will increase his efficiency, I think Frye was a good pick up. They've got 3 guys going into free agency (Harris, Vucevic, O'Quinn), 3 more playing into their options (Harkless, Nicholson, Fournier), 1 cut from his rookie deal (Peyton Siva); that's a lot of hungry young players that will be bringing it every night. I think the coach might be the first to get fired, I'm mystified by the signings of Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour and with a team this young you don't expect them to be crisp in the 4th quarter against for-real professional ballers. So I doubt they'll win too many games or challenge for the 8th spot in the East, but they'll play hard erry night and some of these youngsters will emerge.
Pelicans -- Two words: Anthony Davis. One of the most exciting unique players of my lifetime and he's only getting better. I like the addition of Asik, and Anderson, Holiday and Evans make for a nice starting five. But bench depth is not so good with Eric Gordon swamping the salary cap and Austin Rivers just not living up to the hype. And the coach could be embattled early on. But if they can stay afloat I'd like to see the Pelicans makes some moves to upgrade the roster. If they lose badly it could get depressing; but if they win, they'll be one of the best teams to watch all year.
T-Wolves -- This is basically a brand new team: 2 rookies (Wiggins, Lavine), 3 rookies from last year that should've played more (Bennett, Dieng, Muhammad), 1 new trade piece (Young), 1 new free agent (Williams) and a C that was hurt most of last year. The landscape has changed considerably from just 6 months ago. Out is Love, and rumors are swirling around Budinger, Barea and Martin. This is Rubio's team now, there is no second option, he's in the diver's seat, it's hero time for Rubio. Now that he's got a bunch of new targets to assist, I think he'll do just fine, I think the team will be fun to watch and by the end of the year I bet they'll actually be pretty good. But early on I think they'll be terrible, slumping rookies, chemistry issues, trade rumors, veteran coach trying to hold it together, etc. But I bet after the all-star break they'll figure it out and come back sexy next year. No way they make the playoffs this year but watching them figure out what they've got should be kinda cool.
Jazz -- All about the youth movement, who's gonna blossom and who's getting shipped out. The Jazz aren't a prime destination for free agents and draft picks are generally better as trade bait than building blocks. They have to trade for their stars and by next summer they should have enough assets to make a run at a semi-star or two to mold into this core. Favors and Hayward would appear to be in the core (or the most valuable trade chips of all) and figure Exum has 1-2 years to figure it out. So between Kanter, Burke, Burks and Gobert, who stays in the core and who gets moved on? I like all these players, doubt they'll win many games, no idea the answer to the previous question but they'll play hard and these names will be fodder for next summer.
Kings -- Its gonna be fun to watch Cousins...do whatever he's gonna do! I reckon the King'll still suck, off the top of my head I have no idea who the Kings coach is, but Cousins will be a monster and FIBA got me hankering to see if ol' Rudy comes out. They'll be a trainwreck but they'll be a fun trainwreck.
Eastern playoff-seeding carousel (8-13)
Raptors, Cavs, Wizards, Hawks, Heat, Hornets -- I'll be in and out with these teams from beginning to end, I reckon. I think they're all gonna be good but I'm not sure how good or how long it'll take to get good because they've all gone through major changes since May (except the Raptors who are surprisingly unchanged). They each have their own drama but they'll be rubbing up against each other all year long. How they shake out will be cool to see.
Western curiosities (14-15)
Mavs, Warriors -- They'll both be good, I think better than last year. They'll score, they'll play tough games into the 4th quarter every night, they'll win games they were supposed to lose. But they're both sloppy, inconsistent, they're gonna lose games they ought to win. Fortunately, they'll be good to watch whether they're winning or losing.
NBA: League Pass Power Ranking (pre-season)(part 3)
The
Western Stand-bys (16-18)
Thunder, Spurs, Clippers -- For these squads it’s all about injuries and not much else. Some nights it’s cool to watch the good teams take over, but on others the relatively low stakes of the regular season make the whole thing seem routine, where even their brilliance is too casual for its own good. They’re gonna be good, they’re gonna be entertaining but they’re gonna be predictable for stretches too. I’ll pop in on them but I doubt I’ll watch a ton…until they play each other.
Thunder, Spurs, Clippers -- For these squads it’s all about injuries and not much else. Some nights it’s cool to watch the good teams take over, but on others the relatively low stakes of the regular season make the whole thing seem routine, where even their brilliance is too casual for its own good. They’re gonna be good, they’re gonna be entertaining but they’re gonna be predictable for stretches too. I’ll pop in on them but I doubt I’ll watch a ton…until they play each other.
Eastern
curiosities (19-20)
Knicks, Bulls -- I know who the Knicks and Bulls are: underachieving big brother, overachieving little brother; the Bulls are gonna prevail no matter how lovely or ugly it gets while the Knicks are slug their way into a losing fight 9 times out of 10. Both of these teams will get more interesting as the season goes on, win or lose. I am curious to see Cleanthony Early and Nicola Mirotic.
Knicks, Bulls -- I know who the Knicks and Bulls are: underachieving big brother, overachieving little brother; the Bulls are gonna prevail no matter how lovely or ugly it gets while the Knicks are slug their way into a losing fight 9 times out of 10. Both of these teams will get more interesting as the season goes on, win or lose. I am curious to see Cleanthony Early and Nicola Mirotic.
Less
fascinated by (21-24)
Pistons, Nuggets, Blazers, Grizzlies -- I’m open to be into these teams, I’m just not seeing it right now. The Pistons will either be wildly better than last year…or they won’t; the Nuggets will have a home court advantage that will keep the relevant in the West and yet mask their actual competence on the court all year long; Blazers have Aldridge and Lillard but without any upgrade at all, I don’t see how they avoid sinking in the West; Grizzlies are fascinating in the playoffs when they’re putting the wood to the Clips or Thunder or Mavs or even the Spurs, but regular season they’re a snoozefest, no thanks.
Pistons, Nuggets, Blazers, Grizzlies -- I’m open to be into these teams, I’m just not seeing it right now. The Pistons will either be wildly better than last year…or they won’t; the Nuggets will have a home court advantage that will keep the relevant in the West and yet mask their actual competence on the court all year long; Blazers have Aldridge and Lillard but without any upgrade at all, I don’t see how they avoid sinking in the West; Grizzlies are fascinating in the playoffs when they’re putting the wood to the Clips or Thunder or Mavs or even the Spurs, but regular season they’re a snoozefest, no thanks.
90%
don’t care (25-28)
Nets -- They’re gonna be such a mess all year, only curious if they start winning, watching them lose sounds boring, I don’t think they’re in the playoff hunt at all. Joe Johnson is not terribly exciting to watch, Deron Williams is depressing and KG is just embarrassing. Next summer will be another dreary one in Brooklyn too. (Wacky prediction: Keep an eye on Bogdan Bogdanovich for ROY, he’ll get plenty of run, plenty of opportunities, no pressure to perform and if there is a silver lining to this team it’ll probably be him. In New York that might be good enough for ROY)
Nets -- They’re gonna be such a mess all year, only curious if they start winning, watching them lose sounds boring, I don’t think they’re in the playoff hunt at all. Joe Johnson is not terribly exciting to watch, Deron Williams is depressing and KG is just embarrassing. Next summer will be another dreary one in Brooklyn too. (Wacky prediction: Keep an eye on Bogdan Bogdanovich for ROY, he’ll get plenty of run, plenty of opportunities, no pressure to perform and if there is a silver lining to this team it’ll probably be him. In New York that might be good enough for ROY)
Pacers -- Tough to
watch a good team fall so quick and, shit, they were no fun to watch when they
were rolling! Man, can’t imagine how
sorry that offense is gonna be this year.
Unless PG makes a speedy recovery, I’m ignoring the Pacers til Draft
Day.
Rockets – Personal
bias: Harden is one of my least favorite players to watch in the game and
Howard has never been as much fun for me as for everyone else, the two flakiest
big stars in the league. The Rockets are
a blocky boring team and from time to time they’ll be wretched, I’ll pass. I think they’ll challenge for a playoff spot
so I’m sure I’ll end up watching some by the end of the year but only when
circumstances suggest I need to.
Celtics – Frankly I
think they’re going to be a grease fire this year and out of respect for Brad
Stevens and Marcus Smart (the sneaky ROY d’jour) I think I’ll avoid them. Rajon Rondo as tradebait isn’t as interesting
as it ought to be (personally, I think he gets stuck in Boston, then becomes a
UFA next summer). If they start to win,
maybe I’d watch but I don’t really see that happening, so they’re already part
of next year’s draft coverage for me.
99%
don’t care (29-30)
Sixers -- I wanna see Nerlens Noel and….not much else. I figure MCW has about 5 or 6 of those blow up number hanging games, I’ll catch the highlights. Otherwise there’s not gonna be much else to see. Compare this roster to last year’s Milwaukee Bucks team that won 15 games: the Sixers aren’t even remotely close to as good as that Bucks team. Think about that.
Sixers -- I wanna see Nerlens Noel and….not much else. I figure MCW has about 5 or 6 of those blow up number hanging games, I’ll catch the highlights. Otherwise there’s not gonna be much else to see. Compare this roster to last year’s Milwaukee Bucks team that won 15 games: the Sixers aren’t even remotely close to as good as that Bucks team. Think about that.
Lakers -- I wanna
see Randle but I don’t think he’ll do much this year. I’m not a Laker hater but this team looks
horrible and Kobe on a horrible team is a horrible thing to watch. I’m glad they’re on prime time, they won’t
interrupt my League Pass. Kobe’s
milestones will make the highlights and not much else I reckon.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
NBA Draft Recap: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder had two 1st round picks, #21 where they took Mitch McGary (F/C Michigan) and #29 where they took Josh Huestis (SF/PF Stanford), and acquired #55 Semaj Christon (SG Xavier) from the Hornets. The controversial portion of this news is that Huestis was apparently picked solely for their D-League team, a strategy that no NBA team has yet employed; we'll see if it bears fruit. I would suggest that not drafting Cleanthony Early (SG/SF Wichita State) is the real head-scratcher: they could've had a local-ish guy who fits their offensive scheme that I am convinced is going to be a good player and instead they draft a guy for another team's bench. I don't get it. This is how you support KD and Westbrook?
Indeed, I don't get much of anything OKC has done over the years. Last year this team had 7 guys that played 78 or more games: Durant, Ibaka, Derek Fisher, Collison, Adams, Jackson, Lamb. That's a lot of wear and tear for not much (outside of KD and Ibaka) production. Throw in that down the stretch they gave big minutes to Caron Butler and still rely heavily on Kendrick Perkins and you see why Durant won his MVP: he carried this team by himself to the 2nd best record in the league, I can understand that Durant and Westbrook are the focus, they are handling the ball the majority of the time, they are the vast majority of the production (and the salary cap) and you don't want to have too many guys getting in the way of that. But why not give them some support? Why not bulk up the bench depth? Why not look to the future? As much praise as the OKC front office deserves for drafting well for three straight years, they deserve blame for not doing much of anything else since. Their big free agent signings this summer were Anthony Morrow (yawn) and Sebastain Telfair (spit take!). This is how you plan on luring Durant back to OKC when his contract is up?
That said, I still expect OKC to finish 2nd or maybe 3rd in the West and probably get at least to the conference finals. KD is that good, man. And Westbrook is too. They've got 2 of the best players in the league even if they've got the sorriest depth around behind them. We'll see if Perry Jones, Andre Roberson and Lamb can develop. We'll see what they can get out of McGary and Telfair. Going forward extending KD and re-signing Reggie Jackson will keep them busy next summer. Until then just ride KD and Westbrook as far they can carry you.
If I were KD my bags would already be packed, I'd have apartments in 5 or 6 different cities just in case and I'd have my agent ready to get the Melo/Love-style trade complaint machine ready to go. If I were Westbrook I'd be taking notes on how KD orchestrates his removal from this kooky franchise.
Indeed, I don't get much of anything OKC has done over the years. Last year this team had 7 guys that played 78 or more games: Durant, Ibaka, Derek Fisher, Collison, Adams, Jackson, Lamb. That's a lot of wear and tear for not much (outside of KD and Ibaka) production. Throw in that down the stretch they gave big minutes to Caron Butler and still rely heavily on Kendrick Perkins and you see why Durant won his MVP: he carried this team by himself to the 2nd best record in the league, I can understand that Durant and Westbrook are the focus, they are handling the ball the majority of the time, they are the vast majority of the production (and the salary cap) and you don't want to have too many guys getting in the way of that. But why not give them some support? Why not bulk up the bench depth? Why not look to the future? As much praise as the OKC front office deserves for drafting well for three straight years, they deserve blame for not doing much of anything else since. Their big free agent signings this summer were Anthony Morrow (yawn) and Sebastain Telfair (spit take!). This is how you plan on luring Durant back to OKC when his contract is up?
That said, I still expect OKC to finish 2nd or maybe 3rd in the West and probably get at least to the conference finals. KD is that good, man. And Westbrook is too. They've got 2 of the best players in the league even if they've got the sorriest depth around behind them. We'll see if Perry Jones, Andre Roberson and Lamb can develop. We'll see what they can get out of McGary and Telfair. Going forward extending KD and re-signing Reggie Jackson will keep them busy next summer. Until then just ride KD and Westbrook as far they can carry you.
If I were KD my bags would already be packed, I'd have apartments in 5 or 6 different cities just in case and I'd have my agent ready to get the Melo/Love-style trade complaint machine ready to go. If I were Westbrook I'd be taking notes on how KD orchestrates his removal from this kooky franchise.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
NBA Draft Recap: Orlando Magic
Orlando used the 4th pick in the draft on Aaron Gordon (PF from Arizona) and flipped the #12 pick and a coupla future picks for #10 Elfrid Payton (PG from Louisiana-Lafayette). The Magic chose to skip on PG Dante Exum which allowed them to get a rangy power forward to add to the youth movement in the front line...and get fleeced by the Sixers...and still get a top flight PG prospect in Payton. Indeed with Exum's PG skills in question they were probably better off getting a legit PG instead of another project for the back court. A draft day trade also netted them the #56 pick, Roy Devin Marble (SF from Iowa).
The front court has a load of interesting young talent that is now deeper and younger with the addition of Gordon. The free agent signing of Channing Frye, an under appreciated stretch-4, gives them a veteran presence to mold the youth movement. I thought it was a weird signing at first but the more I think about it the more I like it: Frye does the little things without hogging attention from the rest of the squad and it's a declining contract. They'll go into the season with a front court of Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, Kyle O'Quinn to go with Frye, Gordon, Marble and Dwayne Dedmon. Unpredictable but promising.
Two other free agent signings still make no sense to me: Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour. I'm usually more measured in my pronouncements but these guys are horrible. I always thought Gordon was overrated in his prime and that was several seasons ago; Ridnour moves well but his surprising athleticism hides the fact that he's actually a step behind the game on the court, hardly the veteran leadership you'd want from a free agent pickup. I guess the Magic see them as reasonably priced, non-threatening veterans to sheepdog the youth movement. In the case of Frye, I get it, in the case of Gordon and Ridnour, I don't. They also brought Evan Fournier in a trade, a young SG who had some nice moments for France in the FIBA World Cup, and picked up Peyton Siva for 1 unguaranteed year after he was cast off by Stan Van in Detroit. That gives them a back court of Payton, Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon, Ridnour and Siva. Again: unpredictable but promising.
Check out the guys that are already gone from last year: Big Baby Davis, Aron Aflalo, Jameer Nelson, Jason Maxiell, Solomon Jones, Doron Lamb, E'Twaun Moore. The sheep has been sheared to a few layers of intriguing young talent: Oladipo, Payton, Aaron Gordon and Frye are built to be the core going forward; we can already assume that Ridnour, Siva and Ben Gordon won't be back next year; Vucevic, Harris and O'Quinn did not get their long term extensions this off-season leaving them to audition for long term deals; and Harkless, Nicholson and Fournier are playing for their options to be picked up next summer. The roster is designed to make for a lot of hungry players looking for their next deal. Who will get to stay in the NBA and who will be joining Michael Beasley in China?
My guess is this team will be uneven all season long and be bottom feeders in the East but that may be unimaginative on my part. There are a lot of talented, hungry players here and some of them will have fine seasons (at least, you'd like to think so). I don't have any idea which will be the good ones and who will be the also-rans and how much of the development of Oladipo and Payton will matter to the rest of the the players. Also (a la the Sixers), how much of the core going forward will be judged by the team's record? Does the Magic management value wins or are there other value metrics that interest them? Are these guys free to pile up stats and highlights with little pressure to win or is a playoff appearance a necessity? I dunno. At best they could be in the hunt for a playoff spot, at worst they could be getting fleeced by the Sixers again next year. Either way, I'm betting that the Magic will be fun to watch this year, a regular on my League Pass.
The front court has a load of interesting young talent that is now deeper and younger with the addition of Gordon. The free agent signing of Channing Frye, an under appreciated stretch-4, gives them a veteran presence to mold the youth movement. I thought it was a weird signing at first but the more I think about it the more I like it: Frye does the little things without hogging attention from the rest of the squad and it's a declining contract. They'll go into the season with a front court of Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless, Andrew Nicholson, Kyle O'Quinn to go with Frye, Gordon, Marble and Dwayne Dedmon. Unpredictable but promising.
Two other free agent signings still make no sense to me: Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour. I'm usually more measured in my pronouncements but these guys are horrible. I always thought Gordon was overrated in his prime and that was several seasons ago; Ridnour moves well but his surprising athleticism hides the fact that he's actually a step behind the game on the court, hardly the veteran leadership you'd want from a free agent pickup. I guess the Magic see them as reasonably priced, non-threatening veterans to sheepdog the youth movement. In the case of Frye, I get it, in the case of Gordon and Ridnour, I don't. They also brought Evan Fournier in a trade, a young SG who had some nice moments for France in the FIBA World Cup, and picked up Peyton Siva for 1 unguaranteed year after he was cast off by Stan Van in Detroit. That gives them a back court of Payton, Oladipo, Fournier, Gordon, Ridnour and Siva. Again: unpredictable but promising.
Check out the guys that are already gone from last year: Big Baby Davis, Aron Aflalo, Jameer Nelson, Jason Maxiell, Solomon Jones, Doron Lamb, E'Twaun Moore. The sheep has been sheared to a few layers of intriguing young talent: Oladipo, Payton, Aaron Gordon and Frye are built to be the core going forward; we can already assume that Ridnour, Siva and Ben Gordon won't be back next year; Vucevic, Harris and O'Quinn did not get their long term extensions this off-season leaving them to audition for long term deals; and Harkless, Nicholson and Fournier are playing for their options to be picked up next summer. The roster is designed to make for a lot of hungry players looking for their next deal. Who will get to stay in the NBA and who will be joining Michael Beasley in China?
My guess is this team will be uneven all season long and be bottom feeders in the East but that may be unimaginative on my part. There are a lot of talented, hungry players here and some of them will have fine seasons (at least, you'd like to think so). I don't have any idea which will be the good ones and who will be the also-rans and how much of the development of Oladipo and Payton will matter to the rest of the the players. Also (a la the Sixers), how much of the core going forward will be judged by the team's record? Does the Magic management value wins or are there other value metrics that interest them? Are these guys free to pile up stats and highlights with little pressure to win or is a playoff appearance a necessity? I dunno. At best they could be in the hunt for a playoff spot, at worst they could be getting fleeced by the Sixers again next year. Either way, I'm betting that the Magic will be fun to watch this year, a regular on my League Pass.
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
NBA Draft Recap: Houston Rockets
The Rockets used their 1st round pick (#25) on Switzerland center, Clint Capela, and their 2nd round pick (#42) on Arizona SG Nick Johnson. Capela seems like a stash job but he does appear to be on the active roster; on the other hand, the Rockets still have cuts to make before the season starts so perhaps they'll reserve his cap hit and send him back to Europe for a year. Johnson, too, is on the roster and while he is the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year, he projects as a tweener in the NBA; until he can prove that he can either be a proficient PG off the bench or show that he can guard wing shooters despite his diminutive stature, I suspect he'll only get injury-time minutes this season.
The Rockets aren't a team built around draft picks, they prefer flashy free agents. This summer they swung and missed at Lebron, Melo and Bosh after moving Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. But they made up for it by trading for Trevor Ariza and Jason Terry and luring Kostas Papanicklau from Greece....almost as good, right? 4 of the top 9 in minutes played last year have moved on leaving a core of Howard, Harden, Jones, Beverley, Motejunas to go with Ariza, Papanicklau and Terry.
Its good to have two big stars but personally I think Harden and Howard are the two flakiest big stars in the league. Harden's game is effective (if annoying) but only if the refs aren't buying his schtick, I feel like his puddle dries up pretty fast. Howard is still an above average rebounder, shotblocker and all-round defensive badass but after all these years in the league he's still a project on offense. If Harden dedicates himself to greatness as he did with Team USA this summer, then he could be among the most reliable scorers around; but if not he won't get the respect he needs to make his game work and that could mean a long frustrating season for the anchor of this offense.
Ariza is not as good as Parsons, that is not an upgrade in the near term or the long. Terry can be a valuable asset on a really good team but utterly useless to a floundering one. I like Terence Jones and I think he can get better this year but his offense is a bonus not a bedrock, if it comes down to his production then the Rockets are going down hard. Ditto Motejunas and Beverley. Can they make moves during the season? Well, they'll certainly be in the Rajon Rondo trade talks but how do they get him? Do the Celtics want Jason Terry back? (No) Are they interested in paying Trevor Ariza $8m for 3 more years? (No) That 1st round pick from the Pelicans might look interesting if they falter but beyond that, I don't see that the Rockets have anything to barter. This team is Harden and whoever.
In the end the Rockets are just too one-note to be terribly effective and while they're scrappy defensively, I don't see them as a top 10 defense. I think the Rockets are amongst a pack of 5 or 6 teams fighting for the last few playoff spots in the West. I don't think this team has improved from last year so I just don't see how they match their 5th place finish last year.
The Rockets aren't a team built around draft picks, they prefer flashy free agents. This summer they swung and missed at Lebron, Melo and Bosh after moving Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. But they made up for it by trading for Trevor Ariza and Jason Terry and luring Kostas Papanicklau from Greece....almost as good, right? 4 of the top 9 in minutes played last year have moved on leaving a core of Howard, Harden, Jones, Beverley, Motejunas to go with Ariza, Papanicklau and Terry.
Its good to have two big stars but personally I think Harden and Howard are the two flakiest big stars in the league. Harden's game is effective (if annoying) but only if the refs aren't buying his schtick, I feel like his puddle dries up pretty fast. Howard is still an above average rebounder, shotblocker and all-round defensive badass but after all these years in the league he's still a project on offense. If Harden dedicates himself to greatness as he did with Team USA this summer, then he could be among the most reliable scorers around; but if not he won't get the respect he needs to make his game work and that could mean a long frustrating season for the anchor of this offense.
Ariza is not as good as Parsons, that is not an upgrade in the near term or the long. Terry can be a valuable asset on a really good team but utterly useless to a floundering one. I like Terence Jones and I think he can get better this year but his offense is a bonus not a bedrock, if it comes down to his production then the Rockets are going down hard. Ditto Motejunas and Beverley. Can they make moves during the season? Well, they'll certainly be in the Rajon Rondo trade talks but how do they get him? Do the Celtics want Jason Terry back? (No) Are they interested in paying Trevor Ariza $8m for 3 more years? (No) That 1st round pick from the Pelicans might look interesting if they falter but beyond that, I don't see that the Rockets have anything to barter. This team is Harden and whoever.
In the end the Rockets are just too one-note to be terribly effective and while they're scrappy defensively, I don't see them as a top 10 defense. I think the Rockets are amongst a pack of 5 or 6 teams fighting for the last few playoff spots in the West. I don't think this team has improved from last year so I just don't see how they match their 5th place finish last year.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
NFL Power Rankings (Week 4)
AFC
*Broncos
*Bengals
$Chargers
*Colts
*Dolphins
$Ravens
Pats
Texans
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Steelers
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders
The Broncos don’t look quite as dynamic offensively as I would’ve expected but the D looks better than last year so I anticipate the Broncos will win games and be at the top of the AFC all year long.
*Broncos
*Bengals
$Chargers
*Colts
*Dolphins
$Ravens
Pats
Texans
Bills
Chiefs
Browns
Steelers
NYJ
Titans
Jags
Raiders
The Broncos don’t look quite as dynamic offensively as I would’ve expected but the D looks better than last year so I anticipate the Broncos will win games and be at the top of the AFC all year long.
The Bengals are good, man. Offense is clicking, the D looks fierce and
they’re deep so injuries shouldn’t be as much of a concern as for most
teams.
The Chargers are good, too. Phillip Rivers is killing it right now, D is
solid, they’re gonna outscore most everyone they play this year.
I’m not in love with the Colts but
Andrew Luck is really good, he should be enough to elevate the rest of the team
to win the division.
The Dolphins are a puzzle: dominant
against the Pats (who kinda suck) and the Raiders (who are flat fuckin’ awful)
but failed to show up against the Bills (so-so squad) and the Chiefs (bad
loss). I’m not sure what to think but I
think I think they could be good and if the AFC East is as sorry as it could be
then the Dolphins could emerge.
Not sure about the Ravens
either. But they’ve got the veteran
thing going for them and in a mediocre conference, they could be pretty
good.
I’m dropping the Pats and Texans as playoff teams. The Texans could emerge, their D is for real but the QB is not inspiring and the running game doesn’t look as good as it usually is; they could pull it together in a soft division but unless the offense gets going I can imagine they’d win a playoff game. The Pats look crappy, man, just straight awful. Their years of Tom Brady and a bunch of dudes I never heard of, looks like it could be coming to a close; the offensive line seems to be the culprit, if Brady is running for his life that diminishes his effectiveness considerably; they should stay competitive in their division but I feel like the Dolphins and Bills may be ready to move.
I’m dropping the Pats and Texans as playoff teams. The Texans could emerge, their D is for real but the QB is not inspiring and the running game doesn’t look as good as it usually is; they could pull it together in a soft division but unless the offense gets going I can imagine they’d win a playoff game. The Pats look crappy, man, just straight awful. Their years of Tom Brady and a bunch of dudes I never heard of, looks like it could be coming to a close; the offensive line seems to be the culprit, if Brady is running for his life that diminishes his effectiveness considerably; they should stay competitive in their division but I feel like the Dolphins and Bills may be ready to move.
NFC
*Seahawks
$Cards
*Eagles
*Lions
*Falcons
$Packers
Niners
Cowboys
Bears
Vikings
NYG
Rams
Saints
Panthers
Redskins
Bucs
The Seahawks have already dropped a
game on the road to the Chargers; not a bad loss. And they didn’t exactly blow out the Broncos
at home. But I’m sticking with the
Seahawks as the class of the conference.
The Cards are the last undefeated
team in the NFC and I think those are good looking wins. Clearly they have a strong defense (run and
pass) and that will keep them relevant all year long; offense is okay, could
struggle.
The Eagles are a puzzle so far:
they’re about where I thought they’d be but they don’t look like their offense
is rolling just yet. Either they get
better from here and challenge the Seahawks or they falter and flail their way
down the standings. I’m keeping them
high for now for getting 3 W’s without playing their best.
The Lions are starting to look like
the team I thought they should’ve been for the last few years. If the Bears keep struggling and the Packers
fail to get their game together, the Lions could dominate this division. I think the Packers improve but I’m not sold
on the Bears (and the Vikings are a mystery right now). I think the Lions make the playoffs.
The Packers, like the Niners, are up
and down too. Can’t front on losing in
Seattle and an L in Detroit isn’t exactly an embarrassment; but I’m not blown
away by W’s over the Bears and Jets. I
think the Packers can get better but I’m not sure they have the depth of years
past, so while I think they will make the playoffs I wouldn’t be surprised if
it all fell apart.
The Falcons aren’t as dominant as I
thought they’d be this year but they do have two good division W’s already, so
I think they’ll sustain. Their passing
offense should be among the best in the league but the running game is
underwhelming and I’m not bowled over by their D. I think they’re better than their division so
I think they make the playoffs and they could get a roll on as the season wears
on.
I'm dropping the Saints and the Bears as playoff teams simply because neither has gotten it together yet. The Saints don’t even look capable of getting it together, the D is a mess and the offense has dropped off significantly over its usual dominance. The Bears look sloppy, like they could be good if they pull it together but also that they could let it all slip away too; with the Lions looking better, I think its gonna be an uphill climb for the Bears.
I'm dropping the Saints and the Bears as playoff teams simply because neither has gotten it together yet. The Saints don’t even look capable of getting it together, the D is a mess and the offense has dropped off significantly over its usual dominance. The Bears look sloppy, like they could be good if they pull it together but also that they could let it all slip away too; with the Lions looking better, I think its gonna be an uphill climb for the Bears.
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