12/30
Louisville (-7) - (23) Mississippi State (o/u 63)
My interactions with these two squads this year mostly revolved around the similar thumpings they laid on Kentucky this year. Louisville kinda hung with Clemson...through the 1st quarter...pretty much get smoked from then on; while Mississippi State gave Alabama a scare before a last minute game winning TD from the Tide. Neither had particularly good years, I think the conventional wisdom is that Louisville was a slight disappointment, Mississippi State was a slight upside surprise, that probably makes them about even. I can see Louisville winning but I think this'll be a close game whoever wins. I'll take Mississippi State and the under.
Iowa State (+4) - (20) Memphis (o/u 67)
I thought this was kinda of a disappointing matchup in the sense that these teams could upset other better teams, pairing them up seems like just one so-so game when you could've had two good ones. Oh well. Iowa State had some shockingly good W's (@Oklahoma, TCU, gave Oklahoma State a good run) and a coupla lame losses (Iowa, Texas, both at home), you gotta figure on a good day they could beat Memphis; meanwhile Memphis beat everyone they played that wasn't Central Florida (Memphis Kryptonite apparently) and ran up points without effort on all of them: only failed to score 30 once this year, only failed to score 40 thrice, these guys can play some offense. Do the sludgy Cyclone slow down the Tiger attack? I say no. I'll take Memphis and the over.
(11) Washington (+2.5) - (9) Penn State (o/u 54.5)
Penn State comfortably pummeled most of their schedule early on (Pitt, Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan) though they did get a strange test from Iowa. Then they had the Buckeyes beat, blinked and took an L there and another at Michigan State, another game they probably should've won. After that they pummeled some more lesser opponents (Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland) but were never in the playoff conversation any more. Washington straight thumped most everyone they played (though no one terrible distinguished), only faltered when the score was kept low (L's to Arizona State, Stanford, close W to Utah). If Penn State doesn't letdown after a disappointing regular season where they had the playoff in their grasp and let it slip, then I think they're a better team than Washington, but if they falter Washington can hang with them. I'll take Penn State and the under.
(10) Miami (+6) - (6) Wisconsin (44.5)
I was skeptical of Miami all year, though I gotta give props to W's over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, both of whom I thought would handle the Hurricanes. I was skeptical of Wisconsin too, who managed to get to the Big 10 Championship without a single top flight W, but I thought they outplayed Ohio State (though they didn't outscore them). I suspect Wisconsin is legit and could run right over Miami, but the Hurricanes tend to do their best work against good teams and though Clemson made them look pretty silly I think Clemson's really good whereas Wiscosin is just the kinda good that Miami shows up for. I'll take Miami and the over.
1/1
Michigan (+7.5) - South Carolina (o/u 42.5)
I thought both teams were strangely disappointing but not terrible teams. I dunno: I can see either team winning big or close. In that case, I'll go dog. I'll take Michigan to cover and the over.
(12) Central Florida (+10) - (7) Auburn (o/u 67.5)
I'm betting Auburn is hungover, getting so close and getting smoked by UGA in the rematch must be killing them. Central Florida handled everyone they played, most without much effort. Are they good enough to go toe-to-toe with one of the better SEC squads? One that isn't into the game, yes! I'll take Central Florida to keep it close, to move the ball better than Auburn is expecting. I think that number is high, don't think either team will score enough to get to that, though I can see both teams have moments of success. I'll take Central Florida to keep it close and the under.
(14) Notre Dame (+3) - (17) LSU (o/u 51.5)
Both teams had disappointing losses: Notre Dame to Miami (a good Hurricane drubbing would've made for a fine Fighting Irish season) and a thrashing to Stanford (ugh! Big game and they were never in it); while LSU lost to Mississippi State (straight thumping to a routine conference for) and a howler to Troy (one of the surprising upsets of the year). I imagine both of these squads to be rather disappointed, whoever comes in wanting it more has a good chance. I'll take Notre Dame (better coach) and the under.
(3) Georgia (-2) - (2) Oklahoma (o/u 60)
This is a good matchup, I have no idea which is the better team--and that's what you want in a semi-final contest. Georgia has the superior running game, Oklahoma the classic passing offense. Both teams have solid defenses and special teams, so it comes down to who can impose their will more effectively on the opposing defense. Hard call: OU can throw the ball at will, UGA can run it down anyone's throat. Wouldn't be surprised to see both teams have success in the 1st half, close game at halftime making for a blistering 2nd half. I'll go with Oklahoma and the under because...I dunno, I gotta pick one of 'em.
(4) Alabama (-3) - (1) Clemson (o/u 47)
The power of Alabama is that they made the final four without a significant W all year long. They only played one really good team (Auburn) and they lost. They didn't make the SEC championship, their W's over Florida State and Fresno State aren't terribly impressive and they didn't exactly dominate their mediocre conference foes Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State. Could be they were just waiting around all year for this game but failure to get past Auburn and play in the SEC championship is a serious indictment against this particular Crimson Tide squad. (Just for the record, I would've taken Ohio State because beating Wisconsin and winning their conference is better than anything Alabama has done this year) Clemson, on the other hand, I thought was the best team all year long--their loss at Syracuse was the most shocking upset of the entire season. I think Clemson is deep and talented at every position and even though they lost last year's badass QB, I think this year's badass QB is going to handle Alabama just fine. They beat Auburn, Louisville, Wake Forest, NC State, Virginia Tech and kicked the crap outta Miami to put a final touch on the regular season. Clemson has better W's, better talent, loads of experience, I think they're the better team and making them an underdog is kinda daffy. I'll take Clemson and the over.
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Friday, December 22, 2017
2017-18 NCAA Football Bowls (Week 2)
12/22
Alabama-Birmingham (+6.5) - Ohio (over/under 59)
I used to live in Athens, Ohio. I'll take UAB and the over.
Central Michigan (+3.5) - Wyoming (o/u 45.5)
12/23
Texas Tech (+2.5) - South Florida (o/u 66)
Iowa scored one of the biggest upsets of the season by thumping Ohio State (kept them out of the playoff), while Boston College has already scored one of the bigger upsets...of the basketball season...by tripping up Duke. I'll go with Iowa and the under.
Texas (+2.5) - Missouri (o/u 60.5)
Both of these squads were up and down all year, both had some nice wins, both had some terrible losses. Hard to say which is better, this should be a pretty good game. For that reason alone, I'll go with the dog. I'll take Texas and the under.
Arizona (-3) - Purdue (o/u 65.5)
While I thought the top tier of the Big 10 was better than the Pac-12 this year, I think the middling Pac-12 teams were superior. I'll take Arizona and the under.
12/28
Virginia (+1) - Navy (o/u 55)
Another toss-up game. I think Virginia is a better version of Vanderbilt: not filled with great athletes but they play smart and and they'll take advantage of mistakes. I suspect Navy is pretty similar to that. I like Navy to keep the ball on ground, I think both teams avoid giving up big plays and this game slogs well into the 4th quarter. I'll go with Virginia and the under.
(22) Virginia Tech (+4) - (19) Oklahoma State (o/u 63)
Oklahoma State had some blistering offense at the beginning of the year but kinda slowed down as the season went on (and the competition got tougher). Virginia Tech has a workmanlike offense that is capable of looking good at times but too prone to mistakes down the stretch. Should be a good game, I think Oklahoma State is a better team though, I think they could run it up on Tech. I'll take Oklahoma State and the over.
(13) Stanford (+2.5) - (15) TCU (o/u 49)
Kentucky has been getting incrementally more talented over the last few years, but they don't know how to win games or to keep their excitement contained in a useful fashion. Northwestern had a pretty good year and finished strong. I've got to think their offense will be more explosive than anything Kentucky can bring. I'll take Northwestern and the over.
Utah State (+4) - New Mexico State (o/u 61.5)
I'll take New Mexico State and the over.
(8) Southern Cal (+7.5) - (5) Ohio State (o/u 64.5)
Alabama-Birmingham (+6.5) - Ohio (over/under 59)
I used to live in Athens, Ohio. I'll take UAB and the over.
Central Michigan (+3.5) - Wyoming (o/u 45.5)
I thought Central Michigan showed some spunk this season, gotta love them as a dog. I'll take Central Michigan and the over.
Texas Tech (+2.5) - South Florida (o/u 66)
South Florida was the trendy pick at the start of the season for the out of nowhere playoff possibility. They got usurped by Central Florida, who still didn't get a playoff invite despite finishing undefeated. Texas Tech didn't show much this year. I'll take South Florida and the over.
San Diego State (-6.5) - Army (o/u 46)
San Diego State had some good results this year while Army showed a solid running game. I like this to be low scoring. San Diego State and the under.
Appalachian State (+7) - Toledo (o/u 61.5)
I'll go with App State and the under.
12/24
Fresno State (+2.5) - Houston (o/u 49)
Fresno State was pretty good this year, surprised they're the dog to the unheralded Houston side. I'll go with Fresno State and the over.
12/26
Utah (+6.5) - West Virginia (o/u 56)
Both of these teams had some moments this year but came up short to their higher powered conference competition. I actually watched both of these teams this year: Utah really should've beaten USC and West Virginia lost a tough early game to Virginia tech. I'll take Utah to keep it close and the over.
Duke (-5.5) - Northern Illinois (o/u 47.5)
I like Northern Illinois and the under.
Kansas State (-2.5) - UCLA (o/u 64.5)
UCLA's QB is discussed as one of the intriguing QB options going into this draft but I was not impressed the one time I saw him play. Kansas State played a tougher slate of competition in the Big 12 this year. I'll go with Kansas State and the over.
12/27
Southern Mississippi (+16.5) - Florida State (o/u 49)
Duke (-5.5) - Northern Illinois (o/u 47.5)
I like Northern Illinois and the under.
Kansas State (-2.5) - UCLA (o/u 64.5)
UCLA's QB is discussed as one of the intriguing QB options going into this draft but I was not impressed the one time I saw him play. Kansas State played a tougher slate of competition in the Big 12 this year. I'll go with Kansas State and the over.
12/27
Southern Mississippi (+16.5) - Florida State (o/u 49)
Breaking news is that Florida State is technically not eligible to be in this bowl game but this was discovered so late (broken by Reddit, as a matter of fact) that the game shall go on. Considering they've lost their coach and their starting QB after a rugged season (marred by hurricanes and bad losses), I'm surprised the Seminoles are even a favorite. Do they come out guns a-blazing to make up for a disappointing season and to set a tone for next year? Uh, nah, I think they mail it in. I'll take Southern Mississippi (to win straight up) and the over.
Iowa (-2.5) - Boston College (o/u 45.5)Iowa scored one of the biggest upsets of the season by thumping Ohio State (kept them out of the playoff), while Boston College has already scored one of the bigger upsets...of the basketball season...by tripping up Duke. I'll go with Iowa and the under.
Texas (+2.5) - Missouri (o/u 60.5)
Both of these squads were up and down all year, both had some nice wins, both had some terrible losses. Hard to say which is better, this should be a pretty good game. For that reason alone, I'll go with the dog. I'll take Texas and the under.
Arizona (-3) - Purdue (o/u 65.5)
While I thought the top tier of the Big 10 was better than the Pac-12 this year, I think the middling Pac-12 teams were superior. I'll take Arizona and the under.
12/28
Virginia (+1) - Navy (o/u 55)
Another toss-up game. I think Virginia is a better version of Vanderbilt: not filled with great athletes but they play smart and and they'll take advantage of mistakes. I suspect Navy is pretty similar to that. I like Navy to keep the ball on ground, I think both teams avoid giving up big plays and this game slogs well into the 4th quarter. I'll go with Virginia and the under.
(22) Virginia Tech (+4) - (19) Oklahoma State (o/u 63)
Oklahoma State had some blistering offense at the beginning of the year but kinda slowed down as the season went on (and the competition got tougher). Virginia Tech has a workmanlike offense that is capable of looking good at times but too prone to mistakes down the stretch. Should be a good game, I think Oklahoma State is a better team though, I think they could run it up on Tech. I'll take Oklahoma State and the over.
(13) Stanford (+2.5) - (15) TCU (o/u 49)
Stanford was kinda overrated early in the season but rebounded to have a strong close. TCU had their moments in the top ten but couldn't get past the Big 12 competition. I think TCU's offense can overpower Stanford, but I expect both to score a lot. I'll take TCU and the over.
(18) Washington State (-1) - (16) Michigan State (o/u 46)
These were two kinda plodding teams that had flashes of good but mostly came up short. I think Michigan State's talent is nice but not quite there yet, while Washington State was built for the Pac-12 and almost had a good season before faltering late. I think Michigan State is the more solid team, though Washington State may be the more explosive team. I think Michigan State can keep the score low but I like Washington State to make plays down the stretch. I'll take Washington State and the under.
12/29
Wake Forest (-3) - Texas A&M (o/u 64.5)
I kinda liked Wake Forest's rugged defense, they were a tough out in the ACC this year. While Texas A&M is looking at a new coach and some internal upheaval over their future. I like Wake to get it done and the under.
(24) North Carolina State (-6.5) - Arizona State (o/u 59.5)
(24) North Carolina State (-6.5) - Arizona State (o/u 59.5)
I watched North Carolina State a coupla times this year, thought they were a pretty good team with some puzzling losses (how'd they lose to South Carolina?). In a year when all the Pac-12 teams looked mediocre (and exactly the same), the Sun Devils did not stand out. I've got to take North Carolina State and the under.
Kentucky (+7.5) - (21) Northwestern (o/u 51)Kentucky has been getting incrementally more talented over the last few years, but they don't know how to win games or to keep their excitement contained in a useful fashion. Northwestern had a pretty good year and finished strong. I've got to think their offense will be more explosive than anything Kentucky can bring. I'll take Northwestern and the over.
Utah State (+4) - New Mexico State (o/u 61.5)
I'll take New Mexico State and the over.
(8) Southern Cal (+7.5) - (5) Ohio State (o/u 64.5)
JT Barrett: he did a dozen magical things when two dozen ordinary things would've won more games. Must be the most conflicting player in Buckeye history: so much talent and skill, so much promise, ultimately so much left on the table. Meanwhile Sam Darnold began the year with so much hype and while not being a total bust, was not able to overcome the expectations. Both QBs are capable of winning a game or losing one. I've got to figure that Ohio State will have the superior game plan, better defense and the will to show the playoff committee they made a mistake. My gut is the Buckeyes drop a bomb on the overmatched Trojans but I suspect the Trojans will be able to keep this respectable. I'll go with Ohio State and the under.
Tuesday, December 19, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 15)
Games I watched (some of):
Packers 24-31 Panthers
This was the test-case game for the Packers...and the test failed. If Rodgers had come back and gotten a victory in Carolina then the Packers would definitely be back in the playoff discussion, but without a W the Packers are definitely out of the playoff discussion (and we can call it the Groundhog Day game: we can now expect 3 more weeks of Hundley at QB). Rodgers had some brilliant moments but his three interceptions were all underthrown, indicating he wasn't really ready to come back. The Panthers are still a heart attack team: I thought they pretty well dominated on both sides, kept Rodgers from having much of a game, ran the ball at will, and still the game was on the line late. The Panthers clearly have plenty of talent to win, even to go deep in the playoffs, but they still seem like such a ramshackle squad, barely scrounging to finish out what should be easy wins. I dunno, man, the Panthers vanquished the Packers but didn't blow me away.
Patriots 27-24 Steelers
Good game! Felt like both teams were gonna score every time they touched the ball, seems like there should've been a lot more points in this game. Pats came back late, marched with ease down the field to get the go-ahead TD. Then before you know it, the Steelers were inside the 5 yard line. Had a TD called back on replay (it was the right call) and then scrambled to a last second interception instead of kicking the tying FG. A blunder but if it'd worked we'd be hailing their moxie. Pretty even game, guess I'd say the Pats deserved the W. (Man, what if they'd tied?) These are still clearly the two best teams in the AFC (though the Jags are rolling right now).
Cowboys 20-17 Raiders
I kept waiting for the Cowboys to take the game over but they never really did. The Cowboys offense is fine, the Cowboys D is okay, but with the Packers (and I'd say the Seahawks) now definitively out of the picture, there's still room for the Cowboys to squeeze into the playoffs. The Raiders gave the game away in pure Raider fashion: reaching out for the goal line, the ball squirts out for a game-ending touchback. It was a good drive, too, the Raiders really deserved to pull it out but, of course, they did not.
Other results:
Broncos 25-13 Colts
Yeah, okay.
Bears 10-20 Lions
The Lions are still hanging around and with the Rodgers return already stillborn, the Lions are gonna get their chance to get into the post-season. The Lions are one of those teams that are occasionally kinda good but not often enough to make you think they actually have a shot. But we'll see. The Bears are just killing time til the new coach arrives at this point.
Chargers 13-30 Chiefs
Division games: either this was the chance for the Chargers to put the Chiefs out of their misery and take control or it was a chance for the Chiefs to make their final stand and regain their form. I thought it would be the former but it was the latter. I said a while back that the cratering in the middle of the season might be a good thing (or at least not a fatal blow) for the Chiefs, but I don't think I really believed that. I was so impressed with the Chiefs for the first third of the season that I made excuses for their mid-season faltering, but even I had to acknowledge that they were broken, they had lost their magic and they wouldn't be back. Well, here they are. The Raiders are officially done, the Titans don't look capable of consistent winning and the Bills have probably peaked, so both of these teams are still in line for a playoff spot. Just a matter of who is playing better when the time comes. Looks like it will be the Chiefs.
Ravens 27-10 Browns
Thought the Browns had a decent shot at catching the Ravens napping. But the Ravens are a veteran-enough squad to know to gobble up the easy prey. I'd say the Browns are falling apart but that would vastly overrate their standing, right? The Ravens are gonna get into the playoffs, seems like they'll be heading to Kansas City as of now.
Cards 15-20 Redskins
Two so-so squads knocking it around in garbage time. This was the Oh-we're-rebuilding?-I-didn't-even-know bowl.
Eagles 34-29 Giants
Division games: will the better team play better or will the familiar rival step up and play spoiler? Looked like it might be the latter but the Eagles stepped up and got it done with their 2nd string QB. As great as Wentz has been all year, I think I'm even more impressed with how the Eagles have played without him. Suddenly they seem like a more complete team, more in control than they have all year, which was not what anyone would've thought when Wentz came up hobbling last week. Yeah, yeah, I know they just gave up 29 to the Giants, but division games, man, that shit happens. Good win for the Eagles.
Dolphins 16-24 Bills
Technically the Bills are still hanging on at 8-6, but as I've been saying all year: a lot of 8-8 Bills teams looked good early on. I like what Buffalo is doing, this 8-8 squad (they won't win in Miami and New England is going to need the W, so no off-day in Foxboro for the Bills) is a cut above where they've been lately. That said, the Bills will enter next season with a rickety O line, looking for a QB and scrambling to replace free agents just like always. The Dolphins are another one of those teams that looks good every once in a while, hard to tell what they'll be doing in the off-season, but they'll be getting Tannehill back which....I dunno...I guess that's good.
Texans 7-45 Jags
The Jags have developed a real taste for blood lately. I like it! Not unlike how the Rams have been eagerly running up points on people all season, the Jags have a newfound swagger that is encouraging to see. That Chargers match in the 1st round just gets all the more tantalizing.
Bengals 7-34 Vikings
The Bengals never had a chance in this game. I'm curious about the new gossip that they may be trading to get Coach Hue Jackson back for next year, he definitely did his best work in Cincy, I guess he could restore some of their lost luster, but I think the rebuild in Cleveland is probably more promising than the rebuild in Cincy. The Vikings are good, man, I think they're the class of the NFC.
Jets 19-31 Saints
Yeah, that's about right. The Saints get it done but they're not really dominant, they just have enough savvy to figure it out. The Jets are occasionally frisky but the Saints have too much to let them make a game of it. The Saints are still in control in the AFC South.
Rams 42-7 Seahawks
Yeah! Lovin' the Rams running up scores on division foes! Must feel good to drop a bomb on the team that has been bedeviling them for the last decade. I think the Seahawks are done, they've just had too many losses on defense, the offense is still a project 15 weeks into the season, I just don't see how they make a dent against the Falcons or Panthers. The Rams can still score a bye in the playoffs, I expect they'll run up some more points from here on out.
Titans 23-25 Niners
Garoppolo is a winner, dude. The Titans needed this one and they should've taken it but they didn't because they're a half-hearted squad. There's reason for optimism for next year and they're still in the playoff hunt, I suppose, but they've just got no killer spirit, no way to close out games. As for the Niners, well, they've got their QB, scouting the NCAA and free agent talent for next year is their mission for now.
Falcons 24-21 Bucs
I saw none of this. The Falcons are better, the Bucs are worse, I'm willing to believe that that's all I need to know about this game.
Playoffs:
AFC -- Pats, Steelers, Jags are in; Chiefs are pretty much in; Titans and Bills for now, Ravens and Chargers still hanging around. I think the Bills and Titans both go winless from here, Ravens win both games and Chargers do, too, which would make Ravens @ Chiefs, Chargers @ Jags on that first weekend, not bad.
NFC -- Eagles, Vikings, Rams are in; Saints are pretty much in; Panthers and Falcons for now, Lions, Seahawks and Cowboys still possible. I think the Falcons win out, leaving the AFC South with a 3-way tie and everyone else out of the playoffs (though I do think the Cowboys end up at 10-6, everyone thinks they had a great season and got robbed). I'm not sure but I think that scenario leaves the Panthers @ Rams and Falcons @ Saints for the opening weekend.
Packers 24-31 Panthers
This was the test-case game for the Packers...and the test failed. If Rodgers had come back and gotten a victory in Carolina then the Packers would definitely be back in the playoff discussion, but without a W the Packers are definitely out of the playoff discussion (and we can call it the Groundhog Day game: we can now expect 3 more weeks of Hundley at QB). Rodgers had some brilliant moments but his three interceptions were all underthrown, indicating he wasn't really ready to come back. The Panthers are still a heart attack team: I thought they pretty well dominated on both sides, kept Rodgers from having much of a game, ran the ball at will, and still the game was on the line late. The Panthers clearly have plenty of talent to win, even to go deep in the playoffs, but they still seem like such a ramshackle squad, barely scrounging to finish out what should be easy wins. I dunno, man, the Panthers vanquished the Packers but didn't blow me away.
Patriots 27-24 Steelers
Good game! Felt like both teams were gonna score every time they touched the ball, seems like there should've been a lot more points in this game. Pats came back late, marched with ease down the field to get the go-ahead TD. Then before you know it, the Steelers were inside the 5 yard line. Had a TD called back on replay (it was the right call) and then scrambled to a last second interception instead of kicking the tying FG. A blunder but if it'd worked we'd be hailing their moxie. Pretty even game, guess I'd say the Pats deserved the W. (Man, what if they'd tied?) These are still clearly the two best teams in the AFC (though the Jags are rolling right now).
Cowboys 20-17 Raiders
I kept waiting for the Cowboys to take the game over but they never really did. The Cowboys offense is fine, the Cowboys D is okay, but with the Packers (and I'd say the Seahawks) now definitively out of the picture, there's still room for the Cowboys to squeeze into the playoffs. The Raiders gave the game away in pure Raider fashion: reaching out for the goal line, the ball squirts out for a game-ending touchback. It was a good drive, too, the Raiders really deserved to pull it out but, of course, they did not.
Other results:
Broncos 25-13 Colts
Yeah, okay.
Bears 10-20 Lions
The Lions are still hanging around and with the Rodgers return already stillborn, the Lions are gonna get their chance to get into the post-season. The Lions are one of those teams that are occasionally kinda good but not often enough to make you think they actually have a shot. But we'll see. The Bears are just killing time til the new coach arrives at this point.
Chargers 13-30 Chiefs
Division games: either this was the chance for the Chargers to put the Chiefs out of their misery and take control or it was a chance for the Chiefs to make their final stand and regain their form. I thought it would be the former but it was the latter. I said a while back that the cratering in the middle of the season might be a good thing (or at least not a fatal blow) for the Chiefs, but I don't think I really believed that. I was so impressed with the Chiefs for the first third of the season that I made excuses for their mid-season faltering, but even I had to acknowledge that they were broken, they had lost their magic and they wouldn't be back. Well, here they are. The Raiders are officially done, the Titans don't look capable of consistent winning and the Bills have probably peaked, so both of these teams are still in line for a playoff spot. Just a matter of who is playing better when the time comes. Looks like it will be the Chiefs.
Ravens 27-10 Browns
Thought the Browns had a decent shot at catching the Ravens napping. But the Ravens are a veteran-enough squad to know to gobble up the easy prey. I'd say the Browns are falling apart but that would vastly overrate their standing, right? The Ravens are gonna get into the playoffs, seems like they'll be heading to Kansas City as of now.
Cards 15-20 Redskins
Two so-so squads knocking it around in garbage time. This was the Oh-we're-rebuilding?-I-didn't-even-know bowl.
Eagles 34-29 Giants
Division games: will the better team play better or will the familiar rival step up and play spoiler? Looked like it might be the latter but the Eagles stepped up and got it done with their 2nd string QB. As great as Wentz has been all year, I think I'm even more impressed with how the Eagles have played without him. Suddenly they seem like a more complete team, more in control than they have all year, which was not what anyone would've thought when Wentz came up hobbling last week. Yeah, yeah, I know they just gave up 29 to the Giants, but division games, man, that shit happens. Good win for the Eagles.
Dolphins 16-24 Bills
Technically the Bills are still hanging on at 8-6, but as I've been saying all year: a lot of 8-8 Bills teams looked good early on. I like what Buffalo is doing, this 8-8 squad (they won't win in Miami and New England is going to need the W, so no off-day in Foxboro for the Bills) is a cut above where they've been lately. That said, the Bills will enter next season with a rickety O line, looking for a QB and scrambling to replace free agents just like always. The Dolphins are another one of those teams that looks good every once in a while, hard to tell what they'll be doing in the off-season, but they'll be getting Tannehill back which....I dunno...I guess that's good.
Texans 7-45 Jags
The Jags have developed a real taste for blood lately. I like it! Not unlike how the Rams have been eagerly running up points on people all season, the Jags have a newfound swagger that is encouraging to see. That Chargers match in the 1st round just gets all the more tantalizing.
Bengals 7-34 Vikings
The Bengals never had a chance in this game. I'm curious about the new gossip that they may be trading to get Coach Hue Jackson back for next year, he definitely did his best work in Cincy, I guess he could restore some of their lost luster, but I think the rebuild in Cleveland is probably more promising than the rebuild in Cincy. The Vikings are good, man, I think they're the class of the NFC.
Jets 19-31 Saints
Yeah, that's about right. The Saints get it done but they're not really dominant, they just have enough savvy to figure it out. The Jets are occasionally frisky but the Saints have too much to let them make a game of it. The Saints are still in control in the AFC South.
Rams 42-7 Seahawks
Yeah! Lovin' the Rams running up scores on division foes! Must feel good to drop a bomb on the team that has been bedeviling them for the last decade. I think the Seahawks are done, they've just had too many losses on defense, the offense is still a project 15 weeks into the season, I just don't see how they make a dent against the Falcons or Panthers. The Rams can still score a bye in the playoffs, I expect they'll run up some more points from here on out.
Titans 23-25 Niners
Garoppolo is a winner, dude. The Titans needed this one and they should've taken it but they didn't because they're a half-hearted squad. There's reason for optimism for next year and they're still in the playoff hunt, I suppose, but they've just got no killer spirit, no way to close out games. As for the Niners, well, they've got their QB, scouting the NCAA and free agent talent for next year is their mission for now.
Falcons 24-21 Bucs
I saw none of this. The Falcons are better, the Bucs are worse, I'm willing to believe that that's all I need to know about this game.
Playoffs:
AFC -- Pats, Steelers, Jags are in; Chiefs are pretty much in; Titans and Bills for now, Ravens and Chargers still hanging around. I think the Bills and Titans both go winless from here, Ravens win both games and Chargers do, too, which would make Ravens @ Chiefs, Chargers @ Jags on that first weekend, not bad.
NFC -- Eagles, Vikings, Rams are in; Saints are pretty much in; Panthers and Falcons for now, Lions, Seahawks and Cowboys still possible. I think the Falcons win out, leaving the AFC South with a 3-way tie and everyone else out of the playoffs (though I do think the Cowboys end up at 10-6, everyone thinks they had a great season and got robbed). I'm not sure but I think that scenario leaves the Panthers @ Rams and Falcons @ Saints for the opening weekend.
Saturday, December 16, 2017
2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 8)
Trades
Nets get: Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskus, 2019 2nd round pick (Knicks); Sixers get: Trevor Booker. Sixers have been itching to dump Okafor and were looking to get back a wily veteran to bolster their bench--score! The clearly never liked Okafor, clearly weren't going to build around Stauskus and have clearly moved on from the Hinkie fetish for 2nd round picks. Booker gives them an adult to throw in with the youngsters, a level headed force to increase efficiency. The Nets get to take a low cost look at two young players that still have room to grow and time to shine. With Reddick getting the big minutes, Stauskus had pretty much disappeared in the Sixer rotation. And while Okafor isn't quite the top tier talent you're hoping for in a top five pick, I think he still has great offensive upside and should get plenty of playing time in Brooklyn. And the buzz is the Nets have picked up that fetish for 2nd round picks and are eager to get their hands on that leftover Knick pick.
Waivings/Signings/Retirings
Nets waived Sean Kilpatrick. Came on the heels of the Booker trade, guess they needed the roster spot.
Suns waived Derrick Jones Jr. Derrick, we hardly knew ye.
Hawks waived Nicolas Brussino. Derrick, we hardly knew Nicolas.
Suns sign Mike James to 1 yr deal (terms undisclosed) and Danuel House (2-way deal). James is not much of a scorer but he's a solid ball handler and could develop into a top tier 2nd string PG. House didn't hook on with the Wizards but gets a new angle on the G-League.
Matt Barnes officially announced his retirement. (Still, I believe, the only answer to the trivia question: Who is the only player to play for all four California teams (Clippers, Lakers, Kings, Warriors)? And if I'm not mistaken he played for the Warriors, Clippers and Kings more than once)
Injuries
Hornets Head Coach Steve Clifford is on a leave of absence to address personal health issues; there is no timetable for his return. Stephen Silas will be the interim Head Coach. I have no idea what the illness is or how dire it could be. While I certainly hope Coach Cliff gets well, is Silas auditioning for the Hornets job for 2018-19?
Devin Booker (Suns) has a strainer left groin. I believe he is expected to return Christmas Day.
Cody Zeller (Hornets) has torn meniscus in left knee and is out indefinitely.
Alex Ajinca (Pelicans) had surgery on right knee and is out indefinitely.
Debuts
5 debuts this week, up to 86 over all. Kadeem Allen (Celtics), Monte Morris (Nuggets), London Parrantes (Cavs), Johnathon Motley (Mavs), Jamel Artis (Magic).
Nets get: Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskus, 2019 2nd round pick (Knicks); Sixers get: Trevor Booker. Sixers have been itching to dump Okafor and were looking to get back a wily veteran to bolster their bench--score! The clearly never liked Okafor, clearly weren't going to build around Stauskus and have clearly moved on from the Hinkie fetish for 2nd round picks. Booker gives them an adult to throw in with the youngsters, a level headed force to increase efficiency. The Nets get to take a low cost look at two young players that still have room to grow and time to shine. With Reddick getting the big minutes, Stauskus had pretty much disappeared in the Sixer rotation. And while Okafor isn't quite the top tier talent you're hoping for in a top five pick, I think he still has great offensive upside and should get plenty of playing time in Brooklyn. And the buzz is the Nets have picked up that fetish for 2nd round picks and are eager to get their hands on that leftover Knick pick.
Waivings/Signings/Retirings
Nets waived Sean Kilpatrick. Came on the heels of the Booker trade, guess they needed the roster spot.
Suns waived Derrick Jones Jr. Derrick, we hardly knew ye.
Hawks waived Nicolas Brussino. Derrick, we hardly knew Nicolas.
Suns sign Mike James to 1 yr deal (terms undisclosed) and Danuel House (2-way deal). James is not much of a scorer but he's a solid ball handler and could develop into a top tier 2nd string PG. House didn't hook on with the Wizards but gets a new angle on the G-League.
Matt Barnes officially announced his retirement. (Still, I believe, the only answer to the trivia question: Who is the only player to play for all four California teams (Clippers, Lakers, Kings, Warriors)? And if I'm not mistaken he played for the Warriors, Clippers and Kings more than once)
Injuries
Hornets Head Coach Steve Clifford is on a leave of absence to address personal health issues; there is no timetable for his return. Stephen Silas will be the interim Head Coach. I have no idea what the illness is or how dire it could be. While I certainly hope Coach Cliff gets well, is Silas auditioning for the Hornets job for 2018-19?
Devin Booker (Suns) has a strainer left groin. I believe he is expected to return Christmas Day.
Cody Zeller (Hornets) has torn meniscus in left knee and is out indefinitely.
Alex Ajinca (Pelicans) had surgery on right knee and is out indefinitely.
Debuts
5 debuts this week, up to 86 over all. Kadeem Allen (Celtics), Monte Morris (Nuggets), London Parrantes (Cavs), Johnathon Motley (Mavs), Jamel Artis (Magic).
2017-18 NCAA Football Bowls (Week 1)
12/16
Grambling (-7.5) - North Carolina A&T (o/u 51.5)
Yeah, these first coupla dozen bowls remind me that though I watched more college football than ever this year, I still didn't even come close to seeing the vast majority of teams out there. Like Grambling and North Carolina A&T, for example. So I gotta use this methodology: the game should be something like Grambling 30-22. That isn't really how odds work (not at all, not even close) but the lines out there do suggest a game something along those lines. Does that sound right? I dunno, I know nothing about either of these teams. So, uh, I'll take North Carolina A&T to shock the world and the over.
North Texas (+7) - Troy (o/u 60.5)
Georgia State (+4.5) - Western Kentucky (o/u 50.5)
WKU is good at slinging the ball around, I like this to be a high scoring game. I'll take Georgia State to keep it close and the over.
Marshall (+5) - Colorado State (o/u 56)
Middle Tennessee (+3.5) - Arkansas State (o/u 60.5)
12/19
Akron (+17.5) - Florida Atlantic (o/u 62.5)
Not sure why the spread is so big here but I got a feeling FAU pummels Akron. I'll go with Florida Atlantic and the over.
12/20
Louisiana Tech (+5.5) - SMU (o/u 70)
12/21
Temple (+8) - Florida Int'l (FIU) (o/u 54)
Grambling (-7.5) - North Carolina A&T (o/u 51.5)
Yeah, these first coupla dozen bowls remind me that though I watched more college football than ever this year, I still didn't even come close to seeing the vast majority of teams out there. Like Grambling and North Carolina A&T, for example. So I gotta use this methodology: the game should be something like Grambling 30-22. That isn't really how odds work (not at all, not even close) but the lines out there do suggest a game something along those lines. Does that sound right? I dunno, I know nothing about either of these teams. So, uh, I'll take North Carolina A&T to shock the world and the over.
North Texas (+7) - Troy (o/u 60.5)
Troy did actually hit my radar this year, scoring one of the better upsets of the whole year: a W at LSU. Also I know that Troy is traditionally a pretty good smaller college. North Texas, on the other hand, is renowned for their excellent music department and a prestigious MFA program...hmmmmm, a Texas school better known for its Arts department than its football team kinda leaves me cold. I'll take Troy and the under.
WKU is good at slinging the ball around, I like this to be a high scoring game. I'll take Georgia State to keep it close and the over.
Oregon (-7.5) - (25) Boise State (o/u 59)
Ah, finally, two teams that lingered around the top 25 this year. I'm surprised to see that Oregon is such a large favorite. Oregon was a 2nd tier Pac-12 team and my gut feeling is Boise State could've easily been a 2nd tier squad in the Pac-12. Looks like it should be a pass-happy game, but I'll take both defenses to show up and dig in. I gotta go with Boise State and the under.
Marshall used to be a D2 powerhouse when I was a kid but since they've jumped up a level, they're a pretty ordinary squad. Colorado State was always a pretty ordinary squad, so I'll go with them. The over/under looks high to me, I suspect both of these teams will keep the ball on the ground and this will be an in-the-trenches contest. I'll take Colorado State and the under.
I think these are two solid pass attacks that will run up the score on each other. I like Arkansas State to control the game by the end. I'll take Arkansas State and the over.
12/19
Akron (+17.5) - Florida Atlantic (o/u 62.5)
Not sure why the spread is so big here but I got a feeling FAU pummels Akron. I'll go with Florida Atlantic and the over.
12/20
Louisiana Tech (+5.5) - SMU (o/u 70)
Over/under of 70? That's pretty big. I'll go with the notion that passing attack teams tend to be better drilled on offense than on defense....or something like that. I'll take Louisiana Tech to play it close enough and I'll go with the under.
12/21
Temple (+8) - Florida Int'l (FIU) (o/u 54)
I'll take Temple to win straight up. I think they'll score their points but keep FIU from getting theirs. We'll see. I'll take Temple and the under.
Friday, December 15, 2017
2017-17 Pointless NBA Trade Idea
Mavs get: Carmelo Anthony (1yr/$26.2m with player option for 1yr/$27.9), Terrence Ferguson (1st year of rookie contract, $1.7m this year); Thunder get: Harrison Barnes (3yr/ $23.1m this year), Nerlens Noel (1 yr/$4.1m)
Look, OKC is not as good as they ought to be and (I told you!) it is because Carmelo is such a poor fit with Westbrook. Paul George isn't looking that good either but I think if Carmelo was out of the way, PG would be a good fit with Westbrook. As for the Carmelo trade I make the homeowner analogy: a salesman shows up with a garage door, its a great garage door, a Hall of Fame garage door, you'd have the best garage door on the block and all he wants in return is your gutters, perfectly ordinary gutters. Sounds like a good deal, right? Well, no. Because you've already got a serviceable garage door and if you make this deal you won't have the wherewithal to replace the gutters so you'll have two garage doors and no gutters and how is that useful? It's not. I said it then and I'll say it again: I'd rather have McDermott and Kanter alongside Westbrook and PG than Carmelo. There was a period earlier in the season when Carmelo was leading the league in Field Goal Attempts--exactly what OKC did not need from him! Carmelo is a great garage door but a house with no gutters and too many garage doors is not a good house.
You may think Barnes and Nerlans are a coupla gutters and you'd be right. But that's what OKC needs: bodies to complement the Westbrook/PG duo, not another star to demand the ball. Barnes has been an up and down kinda player the entire time he's been in the league, the buzz is he's a hard worker that really wants to succeed but that he just doesn't have the confidence necessary to be a big star. In a rotation where he's the 4th or 5th most important contributor, Barnes has room to shine, make plays on defense, go for assists, be in position for 3's, etc. He doesn't need the ball in his hand but he'll give maximum effort in support every night. Nerlens (yeah, I've already traded him twice this year) needs an opportunity to play, to get some rhythm in his game, in his life, and I'm not sure OKC is the best fit for him, but Coach Donovan remembers him from Kentucky, he'll know what to do with him and in the OKC locker room, ain't nobody living or dying with Nerlens, which perhaps would suit him. If they can figure out how to use Nerlens to replace Adams at times and Roberson at other times, that'd be the best use of his athleticism (and the fact that he can't score at all is not a problem). This is Russell Westbrook's team, get everyone out of the way, let PG be the general of the rest of the team and OKC goes back to be the deadly 1-2 combo I thought they'd be before they picked up Carmelo. And they'd slightly save on salary this year and, depending if they bring back Nerlens, they'd save $5m next year. Even if they do like Nerlens, I doubt they'd pay him next summer under any circumstances. And while giving up Ferguson could look like a mistake in the long run, what are the chances he takes playing time from Russell Westbrook in the next 5 years? (And when/if PG leaves next summer, I'd suggest taking runs at Marcus Smart and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope to go with Westbrook and Barnes)
The Mavs get another free-shooting Hall of Famer to put opposite Dirk and possibly to carry on after Dirk moves on (1 more year of Dirk, just in time for a Melo extension). And I threw in Ferguson as a tantalizing prospect to pair with Dennis Smith. Ferguson was one of my favorite flyers in the 2017 draft, the Mavs could use a flyer as they play their way to another top ten pick. Don't get me wrong, this doesn't make the Mavs any better but I don't think it makes them worse. I don't think Harrison Barnes is the best player for their future (I'd rather have Ferguson at one quarter the price), Nerlens Noel is clearly not working for them and building around Melo for the next 3-5 years continues the framework they've got in place around Dirk. I think Melo fits and he makes them fun (if not good).
The Mavs are taking back a little bit of salary but not enough to need throw-ins (and Dallas wouldn't want to throw in draft picks for this deal anyway).
Melo isn't working in OKC and Ferguson's probably never gonna get his shot there; Nerlens is not working in Dallas and Barnes is nice but not the cornerstone of the future. For OKC this is addition by subtraction, for Dallas it's another big time scorer to anchor them for a coupla more years while Smith, Ferguson and their 2018 top ten pick mature.
Look, OKC is not as good as they ought to be and (I told you!) it is because Carmelo is such a poor fit with Westbrook. Paul George isn't looking that good either but I think if Carmelo was out of the way, PG would be a good fit with Westbrook. As for the Carmelo trade I make the homeowner analogy: a salesman shows up with a garage door, its a great garage door, a Hall of Fame garage door, you'd have the best garage door on the block and all he wants in return is your gutters, perfectly ordinary gutters. Sounds like a good deal, right? Well, no. Because you've already got a serviceable garage door and if you make this deal you won't have the wherewithal to replace the gutters so you'll have two garage doors and no gutters and how is that useful? It's not. I said it then and I'll say it again: I'd rather have McDermott and Kanter alongside Westbrook and PG than Carmelo. There was a period earlier in the season when Carmelo was leading the league in Field Goal Attempts--exactly what OKC did not need from him! Carmelo is a great garage door but a house with no gutters and too many garage doors is not a good house.
You may think Barnes and Nerlans are a coupla gutters and you'd be right. But that's what OKC needs: bodies to complement the Westbrook/PG duo, not another star to demand the ball. Barnes has been an up and down kinda player the entire time he's been in the league, the buzz is he's a hard worker that really wants to succeed but that he just doesn't have the confidence necessary to be a big star. In a rotation where he's the 4th or 5th most important contributor, Barnes has room to shine, make plays on defense, go for assists, be in position for 3's, etc. He doesn't need the ball in his hand but he'll give maximum effort in support every night. Nerlens (yeah, I've already traded him twice this year) needs an opportunity to play, to get some rhythm in his game, in his life, and I'm not sure OKC is the best fit for him, but Coach Donovan remembers him from Kentucky, he'll know what to do with him and in the OKC locker room, ain't nobody living or dying with Nerlens, which perhaps would suit him. If they can figure out how to use Nerlens to replace Adams at times and Roberson at other times, that'd be the best use of his athleticism (and the fact that he can't score at all is not a problem). This is Russell Westbrook's team, get everyone out of the way, let PG be the general of the rest of the team and OKC goes back to be the deadly 1-2 combo I thought they'd be before they picked up Carmelo. And they'd slightly save on salary this year and, depending if they bring back Nerlens, they'd save $5m next year. Even if they do like Nerlens, I doubt they'd pay him next summer under any circumstances. And while giving up Ferguson could look like a mistake in the long run, what are the chances he takes playing time from Russell Westbrook in the next 5 years? (And when/if PG leaves next summer, I'd suggest taking runs at Marcus Smart and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope to go with Westbrook and Barnes)
The Mavs get another free-shooting Hall of Famer to put opposite Dirk and possibly to carry on after Dirk moves on (1 more year of Dirk, just in time for a Melo extension). And I threw in Ferguson as a tantalizing prospect to pair with Dennis Smith. Ferguson was one of my favorite flyers in the 2017 draft, the Mavs could use a flyer as they play their way to another top ten pick. Don't get me wrong, this doesn't make the Mavs any better but I don't think it makes them worse. I don't think Harrison Barnes is the best player for their future (I'd rather have Ferguson at one quarter the price), Nerlens Noel is clearly not working for them and building around Melo for the next 3-5 years continues the framework they've got in place around Dirk. I think Melo fits and he makes them fun (if not good).
The Mavs are taking back a little bit of salary but not enough to need throw-ins (and Dallas wouldn't want to throw in draft picks for this deal anyway).
Melo isn't working in OKC and Ferguson's probably never gonna get his shot there; Nerlens is not working in Dallas and Barnes is nice but not the cornerstone of the future. For OKC this is addition by subtraction, for Dallas it's another big time scorer to anchor them for a coupla more years while Smith, Ferguson and their 2018 top ten pick mature.
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 14)
Games I watched (some of):
Saints 17-20 Falcons
Good game. Thought there might be more scoring but you knew it would stay close. Sure enough, felt like the Saints were gonna get the game winner in their typical late-game fsahion but Brees threw a pick in the end zone instead (nice grab!). A Saints W probably would've finished off the Falcons, so in the interest of competition I'm glad to see the Falcons offense get another crack at relevance. Not too late for the Saints to fade but it feels like they've got the division won.
Vikings 24-31 Panthers
Fun game! The Panthers stuffed the Vikings like no one I've seen lately. The Panthers defense has been up and down (they were up today), while the Vikings D has been steadily good all year long. But today the Panthers ran well and used their short passing game to move the ball effectively. I was surprised. This is the best, the most complete, the Panthers have looked all year. Meanwhile, this is the most the Vikings have struggled all year--though they were still one long Cam Newton scamper away from stealing this game. Good game between two good teams, I suspect it won't play out this way if they meet again.
Eagles 43-35 Rams
Honestly the most impressive part of this game was that after the Eagles lost their golden child QB, Nick Foles came in and finished off the win. Not bad. They didn't fall apart, they didn't lose control, they gathered themselves, took a deep breath and got it done against one of the best teams in the league. The Eagles legitimately outplayed the Rams, too. I was impressed by Wentz but I stayed impressed with the Eagles after he went down. The Rams are still gonna win the NFC West and you gotta figure without Wentz the Eagles are beatable now.
Ravens 38-39 Steelers
I watched all the fun games this week, that's rare. All season long the Steelers have gotten by even though they've rarely looked like the better team and this game was no exception. They got it done down the stretch but, man, they made Joe Flacco look like a baller--how can that be a good thing? Neither defense got much going here, in the 4th quarter especially, it felt like both offenses were going to do whatever they wanted. The result isn't all that surprising, though the sheer amount of points comes as a shock. The Steelers have clinched the playoffs and snuck into 1st place in the AFC though they do not seem like the best team; the Ravens are still on track for the playoffs (because I think the Titans and Bills will fade down the stretch)
Other results:
Colts 7-13 (OT) Bills
I was able to catch most of the OT of this game--man, I caught all the fun games this week! Playing in a foot of snow (no exaggeration, just for the record) was just cool to look at. There was no passing game available so this was just two teams bashing it into each other as hard as they could. Thought Buffalo was going to pull out the win, then the Colts tied it up with a minute to go. Felt like the Colts were gonna break one off in OT but instead the Bills had an improbable deep pass followed by Shady McCoy getting free and rumbling through the blizzard for the game winner. Somehow the Bills are still alive in the AFC, so they may want to preserve that foot of snow when the Dolphins show up this weekend. The Colts are...oh yeah...they're awful.
Bears 33-7 Bengals
This was a match of two teams going in the opposite direction. For as bad as the Bears have looked at times this year, they've got a good core going forward: Trubisky finally had a good game, looking like a legit starting QB and Tarik Cohen looked dangerous between the tackles again. Throw in that the D performed pretty well despite injuries and this team has a lot to look forward to (as soon as they get a new coach). The Bengals, on the other hand, were showing off the end of an era. I'm guessing Coach Lewis and QB Dalton will both be gone next year, wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of cuts across the defense and wouldn't even be shocked to see AJ Green in a draft day trade. The Bengals had moments this year when they didn't look completely inept but you knew the ineptitude would rear its ugly head again soon enough because it just a top-to-bottom tired organization. They need big changes, whereas the Bears only need minimal moves and then some time to marinate.
Packers 27-21 (OT) Browns
Thought the Browns had a decent chance to get their 1st W but then they slopped it up in the 4th quarter and let the Packers come back on them. The buzz is that Aaron Rodgers is ready to return so the Packers really needed this 2-game winning streak. I dunno: they've been so bad without him that I just don't see how even the great Aaron Rodgers can lift these guys up (and the Packers were my pre-season pick to win it all!). The Browns have moments where they try hard and look like a football team and then moments with they gack it away. Bad as they've been, I still think they can still score a W (ouch! Ravens, @Bears, @Steelers coming up....uh, maybe not).
Raiders 15-27 Chiefs
Division games, man. Either the perfect time to get back on track against a familiar opponent or the worst time to get snaked by a team that knows you too well. Coming into this game I thought the Raiders were the former and the Chiefs were the latter. Nope. The Chiefs were bleeding badly, like a big ol' fluffy bunny waiting to get gobbled up by the wily predator....the Raiders are just not wily. So instead of announcing themselves as back in it by vanquishing the Chiefs, it was the Raiders who got vanquished by the Chiefs, who are now back in it. If the Chiefs can keep it going with a W against the Chargers next week, they'll be in....really?....great shape heading into the playoffs. That said, I think the Bills and Titans fade from here so while the winner of the Chiefs-Chargers game is almost certainly in the playoffs, I think the loser probably is too. (Remember this time last year, the Raiders were looking so good, then we all got bummed because Carr broke his leg and they got smoked in the playoffs instead of giving the Pats a run? Man, did that ever really happen?)
Cowboys 30-10 Giants
Saw none of this game and I'm glad. The Cowboys are a mix of too little and too late. The Giants are just awful, where do they go from here?
Lions 24-21 Bucs
Saw none of this game and I'm glad. Ugh! Technically the Lions are still hanging around though they've never looked like a playoff team all season long. The Bucs are imploding badly these days. New coach for them soon? (Uh, new QB too?)
Niners 26-16 Texans
Both these teams are looking ahead to next year. They have both have their QBs of the future, like kids on Xmas eve, they're just counting the days til they can unwrap their present.
Jets 0-23 Broncos
Yeah, no idea what happened here.
Titans 7-12 Cards
The Titans have 8 wins, how did that happen? They're still ahead in the Wild Card chase, how is that possible? And where do the Cards go in the off-season? I have no idea what they will look like in August.
Redskins 13-30 Chargers
Thought the Redskins might give the Chargers trouble but then the game started and it was pretty much over instantly. The Chargers control their own destiny and are still playing good football.
Seahawks 24-30 Jags
This game was notable for the epic Seahawk-instigated brawl at the end of the game. Blake Bortles suggested its because the Jags just kicked their asses for 60 minutes and they got frustrated (I suspect he's right). The Seahawks are in a dogfight with the Panthers and Falcons (and Packers?) for the next 3 weeks, they need to pull it together. As for the Jags, they're looking like a legit playoff team really for the first time all year. And, yeah, I'm still really looking forward to the Jags-Chargers tilt that's looming.
Pats 20-27 Dolphins
Not surprised the Dolphins played the Pats close (they usually do), not even surprised the pulled out the W. But how on earth did the Pats give up 27 points to the Dolphins? I didn't see so I don't know. An annoying loss for the Pats but probably doesn't really matter. I think they'll beat the Steelers next week (and again in January wherever they play). As for the Dolphins, what's up with the offensive explosion in the last coupla weeks? Where has this been? And will it be back next year? (Magic 8 Ball says: "Outlook not good")
Saints 17-20 Falcons
Good game. Thought there might be more scoring but you knew it would stay close. Sure enough, felt like the Saints were gonna get the game winner in their typical late-game fsahion but Brees threw a pick in the end zone instead (nice grab!). A Saints W probably would've finished off the Falcons, so in the interest of competition I'm glad to see the Falcons offense get another crack at relevance. Not too late for the Saints to fade but it feels like they've got the division won.
Vikings 24-31 Panthers
Fun game! The Panthers stuffed the Vikings like no one I've seen lately. The Panthers defense has been up and down (they were up today), while the Vikings D has been steadily good all year long. But today the Panthers ran well and used their short passing game to move the ball effectively. I was surprised. This is the best, the most complete, the Panthers have looked all year. Meanwhile, this is the most the Vikings have struggled all year--though they were still one long Cam Newton scamper away from stealing this game. Good game between two good teams, I suspect it won't play out this way if they meet again.
Eagles 43-35 Rams
Honestly the most impressive part of this game was that after the Eagles lost their golden child QB, Nick Foles came in and finished off the win. Not bad. They didn't fall apart, they didn't lose control, they gathered themselves, took a deep breath and got it done against one of the best teams in the league. The Eagles legitimately outplayed the Rams, too. I was impressed by Wentz but I stayed impressed with the Eagles after he went down. The Rams are still gonna win the NFC West and you gotta figure without Wentz the Eagles are beatable now.
Ravens 38-39 Steelers
I watched all the fun games this week, that's rare. All season long the Steelers have gotten by even though they've rarely looked like the better team and this game was no exception. They got it done down the stretch but, man, they made Joe Flacco look like a baller--how can that be a good thing? Neither defense got much going here, in the 4th quarter especially, it felt like both offenses were going to do whatever they wanted. The result isn't all that surprising, though the sheer amount of points comes as a shock. The Steelers have clinched the playoffs and snuck into 1st place in the AFC though they do not seem like the best team; the Ravens are still on track for the playoffs (because I think the Titans and Bills will fade down the stretch)
Other results:
Colts 7-13 (OT) Bills
I was able to catch most of the OT of this game--man, I caught all the fun games this week! Playing in a foot of snow (no exaggeration, just for the record) was just cool to look at. There was no passing game available so this was just two teams bashing it into each other as hard as they could. Thought Buffalo was going to pull out the win, then the Colts tied it up with a minute to go. Felt like the Colts were gonna break one off in OT but instead the Bills had an improbable deep pass followed by Shady McCoy getting free and rumbling through the blizzard for the game winner. Somehow the Bills are still alive in the AFC, so they may want to preserve that foot of snow when the Dolphins show up this weekend. The Colts are...oh yeah...they're awful.
Bears 33-7 Bengals
This was a match of two teams going in the opposite direction. For as bad as the Bears have looked at times this year, they've got a good core going forward: Trubisky finally had a good game, looking like a legit starting QB and Tarik Cohen looked dangerous between the tackles again. Throw in that the D performed pretty well despite injuries and this team has a lot to look forward to (as soon as they get a new coach). The Bengals, on the other hand, were showing off the end of an era. I'm guessing Coach Lewis and QB Dalton will both be gone next year, wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of cuts across the defense and wouldn't even be shocked to see AJ Green in a draft day trade. The Bengals had moments this year when they didn't look completely inept but you knew the ineptitude would rear its ugly head again soon enough because it just a top-to-bottom tired organization. They need big changes, whereas the Bears only need minimal moves and then some time to marinate.
Packers 27-21 (OT) Browns
Thought the Browns had a decent chance to get their 1st W but then they slopped it up in the 4th quarter and let the Packers come back on them. The buzz is that Aaron Rodgers is ready to return so the Packers really needed this 2-game winning streak. I dunno: they've been so bad without him that I just don't see how even the great Aaron Rodgers can lift these guys up (and the Packers were my pre-season pick to win it all!). The Browns have moments where they try hard and look like a football team and then moments with they gack it away. Bad as they've been, I still think they can still score a W (ouch! Ravens, @Bears, @Steelers coming up....uh, maybe not).
Raiders 15-27 Chiefs
Division games, man. Either the perfect time to get back on track against a familiar opponent or the worst time to get snaked by a team that knows you too well. Coming into this game I thought the Raiders were the former and the Chiefs were the latter. Nope. The Chiefs were bleeding badly, like a big ol' fluffy bunny waiting to get gobbled up by the wily predator....the Raiders are just not wily. So instead of announcing themselves as back in it by vanquishing the Chiefs, it was the Raiders who got vanquished by the Chiefs, who are now back in it. If the Chiefs can keep it going with a W against the Chargers next week, they'll be in....really?....great shape heading into the playoffs. That said, I think the Bills and Titans fade from here so while the winner of the Chiefs-Chargers game is almost certainly in the playoffs, I think the loser probably is too. (Remember this time last year, the Raiders were looking so good, then we all got bummed because Carr broke his leg and they got smoked in the playoffs instead of giving the Pats a run? Man, did that ever really happen?)
Cowboys 30-10 Giants
Saw none of this game and I'm glad. The Cowboys are a mix of too little and too late. The Giants are just awful, where do they go from here?
Lions 24-21 Bucs
Saw none of this game and I'm glad. Ugh! Technically the Lions are still hanging around though they've never looked like a playoff team all season long. The Bucs are imploding badly these days. New coach for them soon? (Uh, new QB too?)
Niners 26-16 Texans
Both these teams are looking ahead to next year. They have both have their QBs of the future, like kids on Xmas eve, they're just counting the days til they can unwrap their present.
Jets 0-23 Broncos
Yeah, no idea what happened here.
Titans 7-12 Cards
The Titans have 8 wins, how did that happen? They're still ahead in the Wild Card chase, how is that possible? And where do the Cards go in the off-season? I have no idea what they will look like in August.
Redskins 13-30 Chargers
Thought the Redskins might give the Chargers trouble but then the game started and it was pretty much over instantly. The Chargers control their own destiny and are still playing good football.
Seahawks 24-30 Jags
This game was notable for the epic Seahawk-instigated brawl at the end of the game. Blake Bortles suggested its because the Jags just kicked their asses for 60 minutes and they got frustrated (I suspect he's right). The Seahawks are in a dogfight with the Panthers and Falcons (and Packers?) for the next 3 weeks, they need to pull it together. As for the Jags, they're looking like a legit playoff team really for the first time all year. And, yeah, I'm still really looking forward to the Jags-Chargers tilt that's looming.
Pats 20-27 Dolphins
Not surprised the Dolphins played the Pats close (they usually do), not even surprised the pulled out the W. But how on earth did the Pats give up 27 points to the Dolphins? I didn't see so I don't know. An annoying loss for the Pats but probably doesn't really matter. I think they'll beat the Steelers next week (and again in January wherever they play). As for the Dolphins, what's up with the offensive explosion in the last coupla weeks? Where has this been? And will it be back next year? (Magic 8 Ball says: "Outlook not good")
Wednesday, December 6, 2017
2017-18 Pointless NBA Trade Idea
Mavs get Alex Len; Suns get Nerlens Noel
Nerlens doesn't play because the Mavs obviously just don't like the guy but I think the Suns would find a way to use his athleticism with or without Chandler and Monroe. Nerlens is tantalizingly talented but clearly the league has already cooled on his off-court persona and he does not seem destined to get the big payday he was dreaming of this summer, perhaps a run with the Suns will inspire a second look or get him to readjust his attitude.
Alex Len is probably just 2nd team depth but on a system team (as opposed to the trainwreck the Phoenix Suns are), I think his hustle and teamwork could find some admirers. He doesn't fit the up and down style of the Suns, which I think has led him to be underappreciated, I think Coach Carlyle will maximize his efforts.
Their contracts are virtually identical and clearly neither team wants to commit fully to the player they currently have. The irony is I bet both guys get more playing time on the other team. Both guys are clearly tradebait, unless they fit better as throw-ins on bigger deals, why not flip them for each other?
Nerlens doesn't play because the Mavs obviously just don't like the guy but I think the Suns would find a way to use his athleticism with or without Chandler and Monroe. Nerlens is tantalizingly talented but clearly the league has already cooled on his off-court persona and he does not seem destined to get the big payday he was dreaming of this summer, perhaps a run with the Suns will inspire a second look or get him to readjust his attitude.
Alex Len is probably just 2nd team depth but on a system team (as opposed to the trainwreck the Phoenix Suns are), I think his hustle and teamwork could find some admirers. He doesn't fit the up and down style of the Suns, which I think has led him to be underappreciated, I think Coach Carlyle will maximize his efforts.
Their contracts are virtually identical and clearly neither team wants to commit fully to the player they currently have. The irony is I bet both guys get more playing time on the other team. Both guys are clearly tradebait, unless they fit better as throw-ins on bigger deals, why not flip them for each other?
2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 7)
Injuries
Blake Griffin (Clippers) is out indefinitely with a sprained MCL. The Clippers have already suffered more injuries than normal but....uh....this one's 'normal'. Griffin started the season hot, gonna be tough for Dekker, et al, to replace him.
Terrence Ross (Magic) is out indefinitely with a fractured right leg. Not sure if he'll be back by the trade deadline, gotta figure that's the best use of Ross for the Magic.
Iman Shumpert (Cavs) had surgery on his left knee, out indefinitely. Lebron's already doing everything for the Cavs so I guess this is just some more to throw on his workload.
John Collins (Hawks) is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. He was just starting to hit his stride in his rookie year, hope this doesn't keep him out too long.
Debuts
Up to 81 debuts in the NBA now. The latest: Vince Hunter (Grizzlies)
Blake Griffin (Clippers) is out indefinitely with a sprained MCL. The Clippers have already suffered more injuries than normal but....uh....this one's 'normal'. Griffin started the season hot, gonna be tough for Dekker, et al, to replace him.
Terrence Ross (Magic) is out indefinitely with a fractured right leg. Not sure if he'll be back by the trade deadline, gotta figure that's the best use of Ross for the Magic.
Iman Shumpert (Cavs) had surgery on his left knee, out indefinitely. Lebron's already doing everything for the Cavs so I guess this is just some more to throw on his workload.
John Collins (Hawks) is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. He was just starting to hit his stride in his rookie year, hope this doesn't keep him out too long.
Debuts
Up to 81 debuts in the NBA now. The latest: Vince Hunter (Grizzlies)
Tuesday, December 5, 2017
2017-18 NFL (Week 13)
Games I watched (some of):
Redskins 17-38 Cowboys
The Redskins had two bad turnovers early on that put them right out of the game: a pass goes through the hands of the WR and gets picked off on the goal line, then after holding the Cowboys to a 3-and-out, the Redskins muffed the ensuing punt. Instead of a TD or instead of getting back on track after a defensive stand, they gave the Cowboys the ball and the momentum. The game never got going for the Redskins after that. They looked like they were playing in 3 feet of water. The Cowboys looked good, ran the ball well, stuffed the Redskin attack consistently, did more than enough to win (though the lopsided score is a bit deceiving). If the Redskins had won, they'd still be in the hunt because their schedule turns favorable from here on out; but the Cowboys are going into a tough part of their schedule and still have key injuries they have yet to deal with, so this W doesn't really do much for them.
Vikings 14-9 Falcons
I think the Vikings are the best team in the NFC. That D is arguably the best in the league and the offense plays smart and makes timely plays. If they can get the #1 seed, they can play at home all the way through the Super Bowl. All lining up for them and a win in Atlanta against a resurgent Falcons is a big win. The Falcons were looking like they were regaining their offensive form but they could not solve the Vikings today. The Falcons still have a good shot at making the playoffs (I think they'll leap frog the Panthers, probably the Seahawks too) but they need to get back to consistency.
Patriots 23-3 Bills
The score is a little closer than you think but...not really. The Bills never threatened on offense (save one missed connection over the middle from their 3rd string QB right before halftime), so though the D played pretty well, never felt like the Pats were gonna lose. The Pats are chugging along though they showed some strange frustration in this game: Brady yelling at McDaniels on the sideline, the sputtering offense, Gronk cheap shotting a Bills defender (though in pure Bills fashion, Buffalo got no benefit from it). I suspect Gronk gets suspended for a game but that won't matter much. The Bills are still are in the hunt but they're no more dangerous than the Titans, while the Pats are clearly the gold standard of the AFC.
Panthers 21-31 Saints
The Saints have had a propensity to come back late in their wins this year but they controlled this game from beginning to end. They looked good, Brees was unstoppable over the middle, didn't have to gamble, Kamara had no trouble finding space and made many big plays. The Panthers are still in the playoff hunt but their schedule turns tough coming up (I suspect they get left out of the post-season), while the Saints are well-positioned to win the AFC South.
Eagles 10-24 Seahawks
I was impressed with the Seahawks in this game. They've had ups and downs this year, crushing injuries on defense will doom them in the long run and that offensive line is still pretty creaky, but they've got savvy out there and good coaching. The Eagles had mistakes (fumble on the goal line was a killer, not challenging Wilson's illegal forward pass was a missed opportunity), but they had their moments too and handled themselves pretty well in a tough stadium in prime time. The Eagles are still well on their way to the playoffs, the Seahawks really need the NFC South to beat up on each other to get back into it (and hope that Rodgers's return is a bust). (Wentz made a play that was just unbelievable: he's rolling out, gets hit from behind, still whizzes the ball 40 yards down field, across his body while going down. Man, fucking amazing!)
Other results:
Texans 13-24 Titans
The Titans, like the Steelers, do just enough to win. Unlike the Steelers, they don't have the talent to play that way. They could make the playoffs, though their schedule takes a pretty harsh turn from here on out, but I don't see a scenario where they aren't the worst team in the AFC playoffs. The Texans are still trying out there despite massive injuries on both sides, good for them. Play hard, don't get hurt, make smart moves in the off-season, they have the best chance to rebound next year.
Chiefs 31-38 Jets
I watched most of the 4th quarter of this game and I gotta say: the Chiefs are a disaster! I was so impressed with the Chiefs earlier in the year that I rationalized their losing streak for several weeks. But this performance against the Jets was officially the end of that. The dumb penalties, the blown coverages, the inability to make plays and the clear loss of composure has made me think this team is clearly not going to turn it around. The Jets are kinda fun in a weird way. I thought they'd be terrible this year and they haven't been good but they haven't reached the depth of awful that I thought they were capable of. And now they play with a looseness that's kinda fun--it won't lead to a lot of W's--but I don't mind being stuck with them on a Sunday afternoon.
Broncos 9-35 Dolphins
The Broncos are bad, man, they had moments early on where it looked like they might be good but that was a long time ago now. The Dolphins are one of those teams that is actually pretty good when they're not going out of their way to look bad. They're not good but they're not truly awful. Looks like they had a pretty good day here (two safeties today? Dang!).
Colts 10-30 Jaguars
The Colts have officially packed it in, I've been reasonable impressed with them so far given that I thought they were gonna be one of the worst teams in the league back in August. They have been but they've played harder than I would've thought possible and Brissett has been a pretty solid QB for them, all things considered. The Jags have one of the best defenses in the league and the offense (Bortles notwithstanding) has moments of being actually pretty good. (They should beware the Chargers, though, that's a fun potential matchup)
Bucs 20-26 (OT) Packers
Hundley finally got a good win, holding on to hope that he can guide them back to Rodgers, who supposedly returns in two weeks. Still kinda amazed: the Packers with Rodgers were arguably the best team in the NFC and without him they're barely a football team. The Bucs have a lot of problems, man, lot of problems. They've got talent but year after year they fail to pull it together. Hard to tell where they begin in the off-season.
Lions 20-44 Ravens
The Ravens busted out, that's nice. But the way the Lions play allows for a higher octane game. The Lions occasionally show flashes of offense, flashes of defense, but I guess they're saving those flashes for next week. The Lions are done and though the Ravens are still looking good for the playoffs, they still haven't shown a reliable, consistent game plan, today was arguably their best game all year long (too bad they won't play Detroit again).
Niners 15-14 Bears
The Niners really didn't want to play Garoppolo, really didn't want to win this game but they looked better than they have all season in spite of themselves. Look, they're going to franchise Garoppolo, they prefer the highest draft pick available, no need to even see him out there, no need to win this game. But they did. The Bears suck. Still waiting for Trubisky to show something but given how bad the team is (and how badly coached), still can't tell if they've really got their QB.
Browns 10-19 Chargers
The Browns are starting to play hard, got a good D-line but they were never gonna beat the Chargers. (Wouldn't be surprised if they pick up their first win next week against the Packers) The Chargers are not exactly a juggernaut but they have a veteran savvy about them that makes an interesting playoff contender.
Giants 17-24 Raiders
The Raiders are taking advantage of the Chiefs faltering but they are still not the team taking a step forward that we thought they would be this year. The Giants suck and only seem to have magnified their turmoil by benching Eli for this game. What was the point of that? Sitting Cal Ripken to get a look at Bobby Meachum serves no purpose whatsoever--and now they're gonna bring him back next week? What was the point of any of that? What an organizational fuck up. Anyway, they're done (though firing the coach and GM is a step in the right direction, I suppose). The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs but frankly they're only marginally better off than the Giants these days.
Rams 32-16 Cards
This is another good win for the Rams. The Cards are a veteran team that play hard and division games are always tricky, so for the Rams to get a W on the road continues their impressive season. The Rams are still a young team, they're hardly a lock to do damage in the post-season but they keep the foot on the gas and that will serve them well. The Cards are rebuilding, who knows where they go from here.
Steelers 23-20 Bengals
Steelers just keep getting W's and even though you know they have the skills to win, it still feels like they're just doing enough week after week and that's not gonna last forever. The Bengals have moments where they don't look awful but even then they generally don't have enough to finish games.
Time for a playoff recap.
NFC (clearly in): Eagles, Vikings; (probably in): Rams; (3 out 5): Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Packers; (probably out): Cowboys, Lions; (clearly out): Giants, Redskins, Bears, Bucs, Cards, Niners
AFC (clearly in): Pats, Steelers; (probably in): Jags; (3 out of 5): Ravens, Titans, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders; (probably out): Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Bengals; (clearly out): Browns, Colts, Texans, Broncos
Right now I'd have to go with (AFC) Saints, Falcons, Seahawks and (NFC) Ravens, Chargers, Titans. Wow, I wasn't trying to make an argument for not expanding the playoffs but I feel as strongly about that right now as I ever have. The Titans in the playoffs? Ugh. And if they're not, it's because they got beat out by the Chiefs or Raiders? Ugh!
Won (covered):Cowboys, Vikings, Pats, Niners, Packers, Titans, Dolphins, Jets, Jags, Ravens, Saints, Rams, Seahawks
Won (didn't cover): Chargers. Raiders, Steelers
Push: none
Lost (covered): Browns, Giants, Bengals
Lost (didn't cover): Redskins, Falcons, Bills, Bears, Bucs, Texans, Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Lions, Panthers, Cards, Eagles
Redskins 17-38 Cowboys
The Redskins had two bad turnovers early on that put them right out of the game: a pass goes through the hands of the WR and gets picked off on the goal line, then after holding the Cowboys to a 3-and-out, the Redskins muffed the ensuing punt. Instead of a TD or instead of getting back on track after a defensive stand, they gave the Cowboys the ball and the momentum. The game never got going for the Redskins after that. They looked like they were playing in 3 feet of water. The Cowboys looked good, ran the ball well, stuffed the Redskin attack consistently, did more than enough to win (though the lopsided score is a bit deceiving). If the Redskins had won, they'd still be in the hunt because their schedule turns favorable from here on out; but the Cowboys are going into a tough part of their schedule and still have key injuries they have yet to deal with, so this W doesn't really do much for them.
Vikings 14-9 Falcons
I think the Vikings are the best team in the NFC. That D is arguably the best in the league and the offense plays smart and makes timely plays. If they can get the #1 seed, they can play at home all the way through the Super Bowl. All lining up for them and a win in Atlanta against a resurgent Falcons is a big win. The Falcons were looking like they were regaining their offensive form but they could not solve the Vikings today. The Falcons still have a good shot at making the playoffs (I think they'll leap frog the Panthers, probably the Seahawks too) but they need to get back to consistency.
Patriots 23-3 Bills
The score is a little closer than you think but...not really. The Bills never threatened on offense (save one missed connection over the middle from their 3rd string QB right before halftime), so though the D played pretty well, never felt like the Pats were gonna lose. The Pats are chugging along though they showed some strange frustration in this game: Brady yelling at McDaniels on the sideline, the sputtering offense, Gronk cheap shotting a Bills defender (though in pure Bills fashion, Buffalo got no benefit from it). I suspect Gronk gets suspended for a game but that won't matter much. The Bills are still are in the hunt but they're no more dangerous than the Titans, while the Pats are clearly the gold standard of the AFC.
Panthers 21-31 Saints
The Saints have had a propensity to come back late in their wins this year but they controlled this game from beginning to end. They looked good, Brees was unstoppable over the middle, didn't have to gamble, Kamara had no trouble finding space and made many big plays. The Panthers are still in the playoff hunt but their schedule turns tough coming up (I suspect they get left out of the post-season), while the Saints are well-positioned to win the AFC South.
Eagles 10-24 Seahawks
I was impressed with the Seahawks in this game. They've had ups and downs this year, crushing injuries on defense will doom them in the long run and that offensive line is still pretty creaky, but they've got savvy out there and good coaching. The Eagles had mistakes (fumble on the goal line was a killer, not challenging Wilson's illegal forward pass was a missed opportunity), but they had their moments too and handled themselves pretty well in a tough stadium in prime time. The Eagles are still well on their way to the playoffs, the Seahawks really need the NFC South to beat up on each other to get back into it (and hope that Rodgers's return is a bust). (Wentz made a play that was just unbelievable: he's rolling out, gets hit from behind, still whizzes the ball 40 yards down field, across his body while going down. Man, fucking amazing!)
Other results:
Texans 13-24 Titans
The Titans, like the Steelers, do just enough to win. Unlike the Steelers, they don't have the talent to play that way. They could make the playoffs, though their schedule takes a pretty harsh turn from here on out, but I don't see a scenario where they aren't the worst team in the AFC playoffs. The Texans are still trying out there despite massive injuries on both sides, good for them. Play hard, don't get hurt, make smart moves in the off-season, they have the best chance to rebound next year.
Chiefs 31-38 Jets
I watched most of the 4th quarter of this game and I gotta say: the Chiefs are a disaster! I was so impressed with the Chiefs earlier in the year that I rationalized their losing streak for several weeks. But this performance against the Jets was officially the end of that. The dumb penalties, the blown coverages, the inability to make plays and the clear loss of composure has made me think this team is clearly not going to turn it around. The Jets are kinda fun in a weird way. I thought they'd be terrible this year and they haven't been good but they haven't reached the depth of awful that I thought they were capable of. And now they play with a looseness that's kinda fun--it won't lead to a lot of W's--but I don't mind being stuck with them on a Sunday afternoon.
Broncos 9-35 Dolphins
The Broncos are bad, man, they had moments early on where it looked like they might be good but that was a long time ago now. The Dolphins are one of those teams that is actually pretty good when they're not going out of their way to look bad. They're not good but they're not truly awful. Looks like they had a pretty good day here (two safeties today? Dang!).
Colts 10-30 Jaguars
The Colts have officially packed it in, I've been reasonable impressed with them so far given that I thought they were gonna be one of the worst teams in the league back in August. They have been but they've played harder than I would've thought possible and Brissett has been a pretty solid QB for them, all things considered. The Jags have one of the best defenses in the league and the offense (Bortles notwithstanding) has moments of being actually pretty good. (They should beware the Chargers, though, that's a fun potential matchup)
Bucs 20-26 (OT) Packers
Hundley finally got a good win, holding on to hope that he can guide them back to Rodgers, who supposedly returns in two weeks. Still kinda amazed: the Packers with Rodgers were arguably the best team in the NFC and without him they're barely a football team. The Bucs have a lot of problems, man, lot of problems. They've got talent but year after year they fail to pull it together. Hard to tell where they begin in the off-season.
Lions 20-44 Ravens
The Ravens busted out, that's nice. But the way the Lions play allows for a higher octane game. The Lions occasionally show flashes of offense, flashes of defense, but I guess they're saving those flashes for next week. The Lions are done and though the Ravens are still looking good for the playoffs, they still haven't shown a reliable, consistent game plan, today was arguably their best game all year long (too bad they won't play Detroit again).
Niners 15-14 Bears
The Niners really didn't want to play Garoppolo, really didn't want to win this game but they looked better than they have all season in spite of themselves. Look, they're going to franchise Garoppolo, they prefer the highest draft pick available, no need to even see him out there, no need to win this game. But they did. The Bears suck. Still waiting for Trubisky to show something but given how bad the team is (and how badly coached), still can't tell if they've really got their QB.
Browns 10-19 Chargers
The Browns are starting to play hard, got a good D-line but they were never gonna beat the Chargers. (Wouldn't be surprised if they pick up their first win next week against the Packers) The Chargers are not exactly a juggernaut but they have a veteran savvy about them that makes an interesting playoff contender.
Giants 17-24 Raiders
The Raiders are taking advantage of the Chiefs faltering but they are still not the team taking a step forward that we thought they would be this year. The Giants suck and only seem to have magnified their turmoil by benching Eli for this game. What was the point of that? Sitting Cal Ripken to get a look at Bobby Meachum serves no purpose whatsoever--and now they're gonna bring him back next week? What was the point of any of that? What an organizational fuck up. Anyway, they're done (though firing the coach and GM is a step in the right direction, I suppose). The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs but frankly they're only marginally better off than the Giants these days.
Rams 32-16 Cards
This is another good win for the Rams. The Cards are a veteran team that play hard and division games are always tricky, so for the Rams to get a W on the road continues their impressive season. The Rams are still a young team, they're hardly a lock to do damage in the post-season but they keep the foot on the gas and that will serve them well. The Cards are rebuilding, who knows where they go from here.
Steelers 23-20 Bengals
Steelers just keep getting W's and even though you know they have the skills to win, it still feels like they're just doing enough week after week and that's not gonna last forever. The Bengals have moments where they don't look awful but even then they generally don't have enough to finish games.
Time for a playoff recap.
NFC (clearly in): Eagles, Vikings; (probably in): Rams; (3 out 5): Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Packers; (probably out): Cowboys, Lions; (clearly out): Giants, Redskins, Bears, Bucs, Cards, Niners
AFC (clearly in): Pats, Steelers; (probably in): Jags; (3 out of 5): Ravens, Titans, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders; (probably out): Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Bengals; (clearly out): Browns, Colts, Texans, Broncos
Right now I'd have to go with (AFC) Saints, Falcons, Seahawks and (NFC) Ravens, Chargers, Titans. Wow, I wasn't trying to make an argument for not expanding the playoffs but I feel as strongly about that right now as I ever have. The Titans in the playoffs? Ugh. And if they're not, it's because they got beat out by the Chiefs or Raiders? Ugh!
Won (covered):Cowboys, Vikings, Pats, Niners, Packers, Titans, Dolphins, Jets, Jags, Ravens, Saints, Rams, Seahawks
Won (didn't cover): Chargers. Raiders, Steelers
Push: none
Lost (covered): Browns, Giants, Bengals
Lost (didn't cover): Redskins, Falcons, Bills, Bears, Bucs, Texans, Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Lions, Panthers, Cards, Eagles
Monday, December 4, 2017
2017-18 NCAA Football (Week 14)
(11) Southern Cal 31-28 (14) Stanford
This game did not have a playoff spot on the line as the PAC-12 was too much of a clusterfuck for anyone to emerge. I thought Stanford came in playing better football, thought they'd win, but they covered the (-4) spread, so I wasn't totally off. I saw none of this game, sounds like it was a tight one.
(12) Central Florida 62-55 (2OT) (16) Memphis
Fun game! If you like non-stop scoring, this was your kind of contest. This game, too, had no playoff implications because though UCF finished the season undefeated (and subsequently lost their coach to Nebraska, a broken down powerhouse desperate to regain some glory), none of their wins were quality enough to put them in the final four discussion. I'm curious to see them against Auburn: not uncommon for disappointed squads like Auburn to completely check out assuming they'll smother lesser competition in the bowl. UCF can score, they can pass, they can move the ball, the special teams are exciting, not sure they can defend and if they turn the ball over against Auburn, they'll get stomped but I think they'll give Auburn a good test. As for Memphis, they kinda look like the favorites for next year in that conference, right? (I gotta say though: matching them against Iowa State in a bowl game is kind of a waste of two good upset potential squads. I'd rather see Memphis play someone like Oklahoma State and I'd rather see Iowa State against someone like Miami)
(2) Oklahoma 41-17 (10) TCU
By the time we got to the Big-12 final, TCU seemed spent to me. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU all knocked each around pretty good and it felt like OU would emerge. I thought TCU's only shot in this game was to get some early turnovers but instead they gave early turnovers and that was pretty much the ballgame. The Sooners left it kinda close at halftime but then just dropkicked the Frogs in the 2nd half. Yeah, this was pretty predictable. Oklahoma finished #2 overall and that's probably about right. They had a good W over Ohio State and rose to the top of a competitive Big-12, they deserve to get their shot, I'd even make them a slight favorite over Georgia.
(4) Auburn 7-28 (6) Georgia
I was impressed with Auburn's recent victories over Georgia and Alabama, thought they were the better team on both sides coming into this game, thought they'd beat Georgia again. But it was not to be. After an opening TD drive, they never got the offense going again and then a coupla late turnovers killed any momentum they might've had. Georgia took their time, ran the ball well and in the 2nd half pounced on Auburn's mistakes to blow the game open. Georgia was good all year long but when they got stung by Auburn a few weeks ago, I thought the shine was off of them (especially since the SEC East was kinda terrible this year), but they made the most of their rematch and deservedly slide into the playoff.
Boise State 17-14 (25) Fresno State
I have vaguely paid attention to Boise State this year, in and out of the top 25 for the last coupla months and Fresno State had a similar season. I didn't know who would win the game but I figured it would be close. So I had to take Fresno State (+9) and I got that one. I didn't see any of this game but there was no way this game would impact the final four.
(1) Clemson 38-3 (7) Miami
Yawn. I was skeptical of Miami all year long. They had two good wins against the only two good teams they played (Virginia Tech, Notre Dame) but otherwise looked sloppy and disinterested against the rest of their opponents. The fact that they were almost able to sleepwalk their way to a perfect season (lost at Pittsburgh) kinda puts them in the Central Florida camp IMHO. But if they had managed to rise up against Clemson I have no doubt they'd be playing alongside the big boys on New Year's. But Clemson was too good to let that happen. Clemson finished the season at #1 and I suspect that is where they belonged all along. I thought they were one of the best teams from the beginning and was kinda afraid they'd miss their chance after a puzzling loss at Syracuse. I'd make them the favorite to repeat as champions.
(8) Ohio State 27-21 (3) Wisconsin
I was skeptical of Wisconsin all year because I just thought they didn't play anybody. That said, they did look damn good against the so-so competition and I thought they had a good shot at besting Ohio State and heading into the playoff. And they kinda were the better team except the big plays the Buckeyes were able to sneak on them: 2 gajillion yard receiving TDs, another TD set up by a gajillion yard rush and a FG set up by another gajillion yard reception. Take out those four plays and the Badgers would've outpaced the Buckeyes easily. In the 2nd half, the Buckeyes couldn't really move the ball but did well to chew up clock. Weird game. I was not overly impressed by the Buckeyes (JT Barrett: the most frustrating star in Ohio State's history?) but they made the plays they needed to make to win the game. And in the end, I would've taken them over Alabama. Urban Meyer was able to sweet talk his way into a championship game once in the past (when his Florida Gators but his (now) Ohio State Buckeyes ironically) but I guess he wasn't able to this time. If they'd just beaten Iowa (Buckeyes were 17.5 point fave), they'd be in the final four, instead they're off to the Cotton Bowl (slight fave over USC, I'd guess). As for Wisconsin, they came close, if they'd just kept the barn door shut on the big plays I think they would've won (and wouldn't they have finished at #2 ahead of Oklahoma?).
This game did not have a playoff spot on the line as the PAC-12 was too much of a clusterfuck for anyone to emerge. I thought Stanford came in playing better football, thought they'd win, but they covered the (-4) spread, so I wasn't totally off. I saw none of this game, sounds like it was a tight one.
(12) Central Florida 62-55 (2OT) (16) Memphis
Fun game! If you like non-stop scoring, this was your kind of contest. This game, too, had no playoff implications because though UCF finished the season undefeated (and subsequently lost their coach to Nebraska, a broken down powerhouse desperate to regain some glory), none of their wins were quality enough to put them in the final four discussion. I'm curious to see them against Auburn: not uncommon for disappointed squads like Auburn to completely check out assuming they'll smother lesser competition in the bowl. UCF can score, they can pass, they can move the ball, the special teams are exciting, not sure they can defend and if they turn the ball over against Auburn, they'll get stomped but I think they'll give Auburn a good test. As for Memphis, they kinda look like the favorites for next year in that conference, right? (I gotta say though: matching them against Iowa State in a bowl game is kind of a waste of two good upset potential squads. I'd rather see Memphis play someone like Oklahoma State and I'd rather see Iowa State against someone like Miami)
(2) Oklahoma 41-17 (10) TCU
By the time we got to the Big-12 final, TCU seemed spent to me. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU all knocked each around pretty good and it felt like OU would emerge. I thought TCU's only shot in this game was to get some early turnovers but instead they gave early turnovers and that was pretty much the ballgame. The Sooners left it kinda close at halftime but then just dropkicked the Frogs in the 2nd half. Yeah, this was pretty predictable. Oklahoma finished #2 overall and that's probably about right. They had a good W over Ohio State and rose to the top of a competitive Big-12, they deserve to get their shot, I'd even make them a slight favorite over Georgia.
(4) Auburn 7-28 (6) Georgia
I was impressed with Auburn's recent victories over Georgia and Alabama, thought they were the better team on both sides coming into this game, thought they'd beat Georgia again. But it was not to be. After an opening TD drive, they never got the offense going again and then a coupla late turnovers killed any momentum they might've had. Georgia took their time, ran the ball well and in the 2nd half pounced on Auburn's mistakes to blow the game open. Georgia was good all year long but when they got stung by Auburn a few weeks ago, I thought the shine was off of them (especially since the SEC East was kinda terrible this year), but they made the most of their rematch and deservedly slide into the playoff.
Boise State 17-14 (25) Fresno State
I have vaguely paid attention to Boise State this year, in and out of the top 25 for the last coupla months and Fresno State had a similar season. I didn't know who would win the game but I figured it would be close. So I had to take Fresno State (+9) and I got that one. I didn't see any of this game but there was no way this game would impact the final four.
(1) Clemson 38-3 (7) Miami
Yawn. I was skeptical of Miami all year long. They had two good wins against the only two good teams they played (Virginia Tech, Notre Dame) but otherwise looked sloppy and disinterested against the rest of their opponents. The fact that they were almost able to sleepwalk their way to a perfect season (lost at Pittsburgh) kinda puts them in the Central Florida camp IMHO. But if they had managed to rise up against Clemson I have no doubt they'd be playing alongside the big boys on New Year's. But Clemson was too good to let that happen. Clemson finished the season at #1 and I suspect that is where they belonged all along. I thought they were one of the best teams from the beginning and was kinda afraid they'd miss their chance after a puzzling loss at Syracuse. I'd make them the favorite to repeat as champions.
(8) Ohio State 27-21 (3) Wisconsin
I was skeptical of Wisconsin all year because I just thought they didn't play anybody. That said, they did look damn good against the so-so competition and I thought they had a good shot at besting Ohio State and heading into the playoff. And they kinda were the better team except the big plays the Buckeyes were able to sneak on them: 2 gajillion yard receiving TDs, another TD set up by a gajillion yard rush and a FG set up by another gajillion yard reception. Take out those four plays and the Badgers would've outpaced the Buckeyes easily. In the 2nd half, the Buckeyes couldn't really move the ball but did well to chew up clock. Weird game. I was not overly impressed by the Buckeyes (JT Barrett: the most frustrating star in Ohio State's history?) but they made the plays they needed to make to win the game. And in the end, I would've taken them over Alabama. Urban Meyer was able to sweet talk his way into a championship game once in the past (when his Florida Gators but his (now) Ohio State Buckeyes ironically) but I guess he wasn't able to this time. If they'd just beaten Iowa (Buckeyes were 17.5 point fave), they'd be in the final four, instead they're off to the Cotton Bowl (slight fave over USC, I'd guess). As for Wisconsin, they came close, if they'd just kept the barn door shut on the big plays I think they would've won (and wouldn't they have finished at #2 ahead of Oklahoma?).
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