2023 NFL Super Bowl

Chiefs 38-35 Eagles

I don't want to say it all came down to a bizarre penalty call, but that call--the first defensive holding penalty of the whole game and it came with less then 2 minutes to go--clearly cut into the Eagles' chances of getting the tying FG.  There were only 9 penalties in the entire and 6 were pre-snap penalties, so there were only 3 flags thrown during the run of play in the entire game! I cannot believe that the first holding penalty of the match occurred with under two minutes to go. Hated the call at the time, kinda hating it even more thinking back on it. 

The Eagles dominated the 1st half--indeed, without the fluky scoop-and-score on a weird Herts fumble, the Chiefs would not have been close at halftime. And, while I can understand the Chiefs made some adjustments (counterintuitively went to the running game to get yards and chew up the Eagle D), I don't really understand what happened to the Eagles offense in the 2nd half. They still moved the ball okay but they didn't convert on 3rd down as easily and that was the ball game. 

Mahomes was good (not great) but in the 2nd half he did what needed to be done and clearly the Eagles' defense got discombobulated--the last two TDs were because they didn't cover the receiver in motion (WTF?). The deft mix of running early and Mahomes' playmaking (the 20 yard scamper on a bad ankle will be the centerpiece of his Hall of Fame induction highlight reel), gave the Chiefs the momentum and, thanks to a lame late call, were able to ride that into the final minute. 

The Eagles D was great in the 1st half but the pass rush lost the script after halftime. The Eagles offense was great in the 1st half but not quite adequate after halftime. Somehow getting dominated in the 1st half was exactly what the Chiefs needed. The Eagles were good, the Chiefs were gooder.

Insanely early predictions for next year: I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC and as for the NFC, well, we have to see what the QB situations (Rodgers, Brady, the various Niner cast offs) are going to yield. It wouldn't shock me if the Rams re-emerge or if the Commanders find the right QB and actually look kinda good and I can't really rule out the Panthers or Saints making big moves. With all the potential turnover, it could be that the Eagles cruise back to the Super Bowl or that a new team comes out of nowhere. 

2022-23 NFL Conference Championships

Niners 7-31 Eagles

Well, this was shaping up to be a good match but when QB Brock Purdy was knocked out early on and the Niners had to go to their 4th (!) string QB, well, that was the ball game. The Niners put up a game effort, as lopsided as the score looks, the Eagles didn't exactly dominate. The killer: right before halftime, the Niners tried to be aggressive (not a bad idea: the 2-minute drill is the one thing the backup QB probably practiced most), but when QB fumbled, it set the Eagles up for a quick TD before the half. That was bad. Up til then the Niners had at least been in striking distance but that giveaway pretty much finished them off. The Eagles didn't really do much after that, they didn't have to. 

Bengals 20-23 Chiefs

I thought the Bengals started slow, didn't make the most of their chances and still could've won this game (or at least get it to OT). Some blamed the refs but I don't see it that way at all, I think the Bengals played their worst game since September--and still could've pulled this out! To me the lesson was that the Bengals were the best team in the AFC this season and only Patrick Mahomes kept them from the glory. Mahomes was pretty great, even on a shredded ankle. The Bengals were the better team but you still gotta beat the Chiefs.

Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5) (o/u 51)

I expect a good game, fun game, but I don't think it goes down to the wire. My initial thought was to go with the Chiefs as the underdog, but I've come around to thinking that the Eagle pass rush will be tough to beat. Much has been made of the Eagles' weak competition all season long, especially two playoff games where they were barely tested at all. Fine. But it got them to this point and I think that D is gonna be too much for Mahomes to overcome. I love Mahomes but I kinda feel like he's all the Chiefs have and I don't think he can elude the Eagles D for long enough to make this a game. I can see either team winning a close match, but I can't see the Chiefs laying a beatdown on the Eagles--but I can see the Eagles laying a beatdown on the Chiefs. If Mahomes gets knocked out, I'd say the game is over; but even if not, I'd say the Eagles can still shut him down and move the ball well enough to dominate. I don't really care that the Eagle schedule was soft, that don't matter at all. All that matters in this game is Mahomes' ankle and its not 100%, so I gotta go Eagles. I'll say Eagles 27-17 (Eagles and the under). 

2021-22 NFL Season

Bengals 20-23 Rams

The score was close, both teams struggled against good defensive line play (especially in the 2nd half) and neither offense took control. But the Rams were the better team in the 1st half and outside of the Bengal TD on the first play of the 2nd half (on another dirty play the refs conveniently missed (*)), followed quickly by a fluke interception that led to another FG, the Rams pretty thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. Not the most exciting game, but a close hard fought contest, this was more of a defensive contest than what I had expected. 

The MVP went to Cooper Kupp, who came alive on the Rams' final drive when they took the lead, and that's fine but it was Matthew Stafford that got him the ball and it was Aaron Donald that took over the game from the interior of the defensive line that kept the Bengals from moving forward, so personally I had Kupp third on my MVP short list. Some downplay the game but it was compelling entertainment throughout and made for an interesting close to the season.  

All in all, the Chiefs and the Packers (my pre-season picks) were arguably the two best teams from beginning to end. But the Packers forgot about special teams and the Chiefs just suddenly forgot how to play in the 2nd half of the semifinal. The Rams had the most talent but probably needed some luck (like not having to go to Lambeau Field in January) and the Bills were the second best team in the AFC, but did not get their lucky break (that instead went to the Bengals). Joe Burrow is firmly among the best QB's in the league right now and Stafford is now a consensus Hall of Famer (I concur: he already had a career's worth of stats, just needed a SB win to put him in). 

All right....already looking forward to next year (when my Bills should take that next step). 

(*) Wait...isn't every scoring play automatically reviewed? Live it looked like it could've just been incidental contact (the WR slowed down a bit and the CB bumped into him) but on the replay, it is plainly obvious that the WR yanked the CB's facemask and threw him to the ground--how do you review it and not notice that? And why weren't the Rams able to throw their own review flag? Frankly that was the Bengals' finest offensive moment and it was clearly a foul that should've nullified the score.

2021-22 NFL Superbowl

AFC: Bengals 30-27 (OT) Chiefs

Well, the Chiefs were dominating this match until they just stopped playing. They rather easily scored TD's on their first three drives while holding the Bengals to a single hard fought FG. Then came the Perrine play (swing pass to the RB, he breaks one tackle, gets a nice block down field and goes 41 yards for the TD), and the Chiefs bumbled the rest of the game away. Right before the Half, the Chiefs got the ball to the 1-yard line--3 feet from a death blow!--and rather than taking the FG, they try a swing pass to Tyreke that goes nowhere, clock runs out. (WTF was that?) No worries, though, the Chiefs get the ball to start the 2nd half...but they go nowhere. And rather than getting back to their 1st half mastery--all they had to do was keep running the ball!--they floundered throughout and I've never seen Mahomes flail so badly. The Bengals, on the other hand, kept their game plan in order and even stole the lead before the Chiefs finally put together a good drive (though Mahomes inexplicably tried to fumble it away) to send the game to OT. Well, in perfect Chiefs fashion, they won the coin toss and then....went nowhere all over again. Bengals win. Weird, man. The Bengals made the necessary adjustments at halftime to fustigate Mahomes but the solution to the problem was to hand off to McKinnon and run up the middle for 4-5 yards every time, eat up the clock and pile up FG's. Yeah...the Chiefs did none of that. The Bengals are good and they did what they needed to do to win but the Chiefs were the better team when they felt like it. I have no idea why the Chiefs chose not to win this game but that's how it worked out.  

NFC: Niners 17-20 Rams 

Back and forth game, neither team took command, though the Niners finally gave it away with a late interception. Both teams had a few good drives but I'd say the Rams were the better offense, with a missed FG, an interception in the end zone and an ill-advised 4th down attempt mixed in with their punts. The Niners had the lead for most of the game but I never felt they were in control, nor that they would win. The Rams tend to start well and then wane late in the game, but here they played a complete game and were generally the better team. 

(Did anyone notice all the late hits, helmet-to-helmet, out of bounds hits, illegal shots after turnovers, etc., in both games? Dude, they even threw a flag on the Niners defense and then just picked it up--wtf? Weird, man, both games featured a number of what looked like illegal hits to me that did not get called, seems like the NFL is going full Rollerball to close out this season)

Super Bowl: Rams (-4) @ Bengals (o/u 48.5)

I've been watching the Bengals all season and though I think the Chiefs were better (oh, and I still believe Buffalo would've beaten the Bengals, too), the Bengals are not a fluke, they are legit good, that offense is really good and the defense has been getting better over the last 4-6 weeks or so; and if you haven't watched much Joe Burrow so far, I assure you that dude is fuckin' good (*). The Rams at their best are probably the best team in the league but they don't seem capable of 4 straight quarters of excellence, meaning the Bengals will have a shot at stealing the W. My basic take on these teams is that the Rams start well and finish poorly and that the Bengals start slow but get rolling by the end. Based on that I expect the Rams to be up at halftime and probably starting the 4th quarter, but that the Bengals will be in contention and could well steal this game late. In other words: the final 2 minutes or so should be good stuff. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Burrow lead a comeback, I think the Rams will make the necessary defensive stand and seal the victory. (I like either Aaron Donald or Von Miller to win MVP) I'll go with the Rams 27-24 (Bengals and the over).  

(*) My favorite Joe Burrow quality: whatever happened five minutes ago don't matter, that guy thinks only of the next play. You can tell, too, that his teammates kinda worship him--a necessary condition, I would suggest, in a truly successful QB.

2021 Super Bowl

 Chiefs (-3) @ (*) Bucs (o/u 55.5). I thought that line would be down to -2 but still at a solid FG, 40 minutes before game time.

Tom Brady is the unquestioned GOAT. Brady has been to 14 final fours in 19 seasons. Dude...that's just...that's just stupid. That's Magic Johnson territory, Bill Russell territory, that's John Wooden and Vince Lombardi kinda shit. There are no NFL QB's that even come close to that. And he'll retire as the greatest in the playoffs and regular season, by far. 

Patrick Mahomes is the one dude that seems capable of catching him. That's part of what makes this matchup so compelling. I watch every Super Bowl but I don't look forward to them as much as I've been anticipating this one. This is a good match between the right teams. I thought it would be the Packers instead of the Bucs, but while the Packers pretty much stomped everyone they played this year, for some reason they just couldn't beat the Bucs. The Bucs have been getting better over the last 8 weeks or so, they're peaking at the right time, and they had the magic to dispatch Aaron Rodgers.

I think they can do that to Mahomes, too. The Chiefs are now 16-2 (16-1 with Mahomes) this season. That comes after winning the Super Bowl and a shit ton of games last year. so they're in Crimson Tide territory in the ridiculousness of their recent dominance. That said, for a dominant team they have to eke out victories in the 4th quarter an awful lot. That's not a bad thing, just that they're method of winning games tends to leave a lot of room for mistakes. 

The fact that the Chiefs don't win til the 4th quarter gives the Bucs a lot of room to put up some points. And I think they will. And I think the Bucs D-line will get to the makeshift unit the Chiefs have going tonight (their one clear weakness) and Mahomes will be bad scrambling more than good scrambling. Either Hill or Kelce will put up numbers but--unlike the Bills--I think the Bucs will shut down one or the other and minimize the damage. That pass rush will slow down the onslaught to give the Bucs a lead going into the 4th quater.

I think the game will still be fun deep in the 4th quarter but I think the Bucs will put up too much of a lead to come back from. I'll say Bucs 34-30 (Bucs and the over). 

That said, I can see the Chiefs doing the same thing to the Bucs. I can see the Chiefs pulling it out late, I can see the Bucs coming back and winning late. I can see either team winning close but what I don't see is a blowout. I think this one stays close throughout, should be a final possession kinda game. Ahhhhhh....that sounds good. 

(*) Literally.

2020 Super Bowl

Niners 20-31 Chiefs

A coupla personal observations: before the game I picked Chiefs 38-23 (so I expected each team to have one more score), tied at 10 at halftime I surmised the Chiefs would win 31-17 (close), at 5 minutes to go Niners up 20-17 I said to my friend, 'there's still enough time for the Chiefs to score two touchdowns' (nailed it). Strange game but the result still seems about right. Indeed, it isn't the final score that seems weird, it was the first 75% of the game that seemed weird!

Mahomes was not good for most of this game, the Chiefs offense was unusually sluggish and while the Niners were good, they weren't dominant. This was a close game that felt like the Niners had figured out the Chiefs for the most part. But while the first three quarters of the game were a Niners-inspired sludgefest, it was only a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes got loose, made plays and won the game. And down the stretch it was exactly what I thought it'd be: either Jimmy G or the Niners defense would have to make plays. Jimmy G missed a long ball to Sanders that would've put them back on top and the Niners D just ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. This isn't an indictment on Jimmy G (I still think he can be really really good) or the Niners D (that pass rush is gonna trouble for years to come), just an acknowledgement that Pat Mahomes is a magician and arguably the best in the game right now.

One thing, though: there was much complaint about Coach Shanahan's clock management at the end of the 1st half and I gotta say not only the haters wrong about Shanahan--Shanahan's moves were brilliant! It gets completely undone by the bad pass interference call on George Kittle (bad call!), but if you take that out the Niners have the ball in FG range with two timeouts and 15 seconds left. They've still got two shots at the end zone and an extra three points in the pocket--Shanahan made all the right moves, it was the refs that shot him in the foot. Shanahan didn't call timeouts earlier because he didn't need to, he knows that it's only the last 20 seconds that matter, so why stop the clock with 90 seconds to go? Unfortunate the way it played out for him but he was right and the haters all missed the point.

This really was a good match between two good teams and it stayed competitive throughout, though only got exciting late. Good W for the Chiefs! Congrats! Not a lot of fireworks in this game and it was over so quick, but an even match between two good teams and that's nothing to complain about.

Pre-pre-pre-season prediction: I like the Niners to come out of the NFC again next year, they've got the offense and the defense to get it done, I do believe in Jimmy G and in that defense and I think they'll be tough to stop going forward. Also, I just don't see anyone else in the NFC gets notably better next year: Packers, Saints and Seahawks are just getting older, Rams, Eagles and Vikings need to take a step forward (maybe but maybe not) and no one else even seems capable of going toe-to-toe with the Niners. As for the Chiefs, well, they'll have the Ravens to look forward to and a lot of teams that could make big leaps (Browns, Bills, Raiders, Steelers, Titans all come to mind) and we're not even sure that the Patriots are done (feels like it, but I'll need to see a corpse before I declare them dead).The AFC is a bit more of a minefield but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chiefs-Niners show up again next year.

As for the halftime show, I had it on mute but it sure was a visual spectacle! And, honestly, that's all the halftime show is good for anyway. We don't really need a musical act, just give us 15 minutes of visual craziness and going the Busby Berkeley/relentless visuals route is the kind of idea the NFL should probably stick with.


PS -- I know nobody asked but if we're really thinking Tom Brady might end up somewhere other than New England, doesn't Cleveland seem perfect for him? Don't you think Brady looks at Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb and that offensive line and thinks, 'Dang, I can win a Super Bowl with that?' The Browns are still looking for a Coach, why not bring in Josh McDaniels and give Tom Brady big money for 2 years? Yeah, I know what you're thinking: but what about Baker Mayfield? Yeah....what about him?

2019-20 NFL Super Bowl

Conference championships
Titans 24-35 Chiefs
I thought the key to this game would be the Chiefs getting out to a quick lead to neutralize the Titan rushing attack.  Uh, not so much.  Titans got up 10-0 right off the bat and it seemed like the Chiefs were on their heels.  But then Mahomes made plays, Chiefs scored points and soon enough the Titans were an afterthought in their own game. A note on Derrick Henry: back in the Laker threepeat days, I remember every time the Lakers came down the court and didn't give the ball to Shaq, I wondered, 'Why aren't you giving the ball to Shaq?' That's what Derrick Henry was in this playoffs: every time the Titans did something other than give the ball to Henry, I wondered, 'Why didn't you give the ball to Henry?' Seriously, this is one of those games where the coach must've pulled Henry aside and said, 'Okay, kid, you're getting the ball 40 times this week. Be ready!' But for some reason the Titans mixed up their game plan and it just didn't work, they spun their wheels and once the Chiefs got going, this was all over. Mahomes is the man.

Packers 20-37 Niners
I thought this match would be closer, thought the Packers would dial up something different then their regular season thrashing by the Niners. Uh, not so much. Niners came to play, dominated the game early. I thought Aaron Rodgers was primed to have a big game but frankly I thought Rodgers kinda killed the Packers: a bad fumble when driving in the 1st half and then a bad interception right before halftime for the Niners to pile on their lead and it was over. The Packers accumulated some points in the 2nd half but it never really mattered. The Niners controlled this game completely on both sides of the ball. 


Super Bowl
Niners @ Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 54)
I think the Niners are the better team top to bottom but I am more convinced that the Chiefs (re: Patrick Mahomes) will make the plays necessary to win the game. In order for the Niners to hang they will need either a defensive TD and/or Jimmy Garropolo to make plays. Both of those things are quite possible but we haven't seen Jimmy G make plays so far and while I think he's capable, I just haven't seen it yet so I'm more convinced in Mahomes. Likewise, that Niner D is good--that pass rush is GREAT--but Mahomes has beaten good defenses before and I just have more faith in Mahomes than in anything the Niners are bringing. I think the Niners get out to a quick 10-0 lead, I think the Chiefs are up at halftime 17-16. Then I like the Chiefs to wear the Niners out in the 2nd half. Yeah, I know the Niners really are the better, more complete team, but the Chiefs have a playmaker that can squash all that pronto. I like Chiefs to win 38-23 (Chiefs and the over).

2018-19 Super Bowl

Pats 13-3 Rams

This will be remembered as the Super Bowl where nothing happened. The Pats moved the ball reasonably well but outside of their single late TD drive, they always managed to sputter. The Rams, on the other hand, never got any offense going at all. Brady and Goff's stats were eeirly similar considering that Brady kinda moved the ball whereas Goff went 3-and-out on virtually every drive. Belichik and Brady win another one, the torch has yet to be passed.

The fact that people were bored by spectacular defense calls attention to a weird anomaly of seeing football on TV: in football watching the ball means you miss the entire defense, you literally only get half the game. In basketball and hockey, you can generally see all the players at any given moment; in baseball and soccer, there's pretty much nothing to see away from the ball. But in football there's a lot of action the TV audience never gets to see. Really all you ever get to see is the QB, another factor in the QB being the most famous, highest paid player on each team. Yeah, this game was so unmemorable that pointless observations like this were more interesting to me that revisiting the game itself. I admire good defense, but football without offense gives the viewer a lot of time to kill.

The Pats are in that year-to-year mode and looking over that AFC East, unless there's big leaps forward by Josh Allen (I suppose it's possible) or Sam Darnold (doubt it, NYJ are born to suck), I gotta give the Pats at least one more year in the playoffs with a good shot at a bye in the first round. As for the Rams, there's more competition in the NFC and still a decent chance that Jimmy G and the Niners make a push and the Seahawks are still hanging around; Goff looked shaky in the last two games and Sean McVey is not quite right to put the other coaches out to pasture, but I like the Rams to be a factor in the post-season next year.

*sigh* I miss football.

2017-18 NFL (Super Bowl)

Jags 20-24 Pats
I thought the Pats would get out of the gate quick and they didn't. FG on the opening drive but then struggled on their next few drives while the Jags cranked it up and got out to a quick 14-3 lead. The Pats were able to cut the lead to 14-10 at the half and I still thought they were in line to get a big win. As good as Jax had played up to that point, it still felt like Brady could get hot and bury them.  But the Pats continued to struggle on offense through the 3rd quarter. Early in the 4th the Jags went up 20-10 and the stadium was deathly quiet. Then Gronk got knocked out of the game (I thought it was a headhunting hit, the kind of hit that was celebrated when I was kid but now just leads to hand-wringing and NYT op-ed pieces (well....unless its the Patriots)) and Lewis fumbles the ball away after a well-executed trick play (personally I didn't think it was a fumble, I was kinda surprised they gave the ball to the Jags). The Jags had their shot there to put the game away but they failed to get a 1st down and had to punt. From there Brady gets the 2 TD's needed to win (Amendola was the man making catch after catch and a big punt return with the game on the line) and the Pats are going on to another Super Bowl while the Jags are headed to the off-season (wondering how to replace Blake Bortles). The Jags just ran out of gas in the 2nd half, Bortles played well for 3 quarters and the D was mostly really good but they just couldn't make it last.

Vikings 7-33 Eagles
The Vikings started well with a solid drive ending in a TD. I thought it was important they start quick and they did and when they stuffed the Eagles on their first possession, it felt like the Vikings were on their way. Then on the next possession, Case Keenum got hit on a throw, Eagles picked it off and ran it back for a TD (brilliant run by the corner), tying the game. From there, the Vikings just disappeared and the game was already over. It kinda played out like a college basketball game where one team gets hot right before halftime then stays hot and the next thing you know they're up by 20 with 15 minutes to go. Yeah, it was like that. The Eagles got in a groove and stayed in the groove and the Vikings were just buried before they could even respond. Nick Foles was fantastic, the Eagles O-line pushed the Vikings (#1 defense in the league) around and the Eagle D was in Keenum's face all day. Great win for the Eagles.


Super Bowl
Though the AFC championship game did not start the way I thought it would, I'll go back to it: I think the Pats start quick today. Though Pats tend to start slow in Super Bowls, I think the Eagles D starts a little soft and the Pats are able to get out to a 10-0 lead right away. From there I think the Eagles take over. The Eagle offense, even without Carson Wentz, was dynamic enough to make mincemeat of the Vikings D and while Belichick is a defensive genius, I kinda think Mike Zimmer is too and he had way more talent. And on the other side I think the Eagles are deeper and more solid than the Jags defense. I think the Eagles get in Brady's face early and often (and I can see Gronk getting dirty-played again right away). The more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles win relatively easily. I thought that last year about the Falcons...and, well, it should've gone that way. This year I think the Eagles O-line can control the Pats leaving Foles enough room to make plays and I think the Eagles D will keep the running game from being relevant, knock Gronk out of the game and keep Brady backpedaling. At the moment the line is Pats -5.5, over/under of 47.5. I was going to say Eagles 24-21 but I think it's a bigger than that. I'll say Eagles 30-21, I'll go with the Eagles and the over.

Super Bowl

The last football game of the year...always a bit melancholy. Aussie Open got 2017 off to a great start and I think the Super Bowl will be a good one too. We don't often get two killer offenses in the big game.

I thought the Falcons had the best offense in the league this year and the Pats were their usual high efficiency selves. The beauty of tonight's game is that while both teams are high powered offenses, they're both led by defensive minded coaches. Two weeks of prep time should make for some brilliant chess.

It is not uncommon for Super Bowl squads to come out tight, for 1st quarters to be awkward low scoring affairs. Tonight's contest will likely play out that way with a twist: these two squads are both offensive juggernauts so I think the nerves will be on the other side of the ball. I like both teams to score on their opening drives and then for the defenses to find their footing, making the rest of the 1st half a sloppy slog. I'll say Falcons 13-7 at halftime.

I like both defenses to play well but they'll both be cracked eventually. I think the model for tonight's game is the Panthers-Pats Super Bowl: low scoring for a while then an explosion of points in the 4th. Both of these offenses are too good to be stopped for long but I look forward to both coaching staffs keeping the defensive intensity high. (Kooky prediction: if the team that gets the ball first in the 2nd half scores, I think they'll win)

I like the Falcons 34-27. I'll take Matt Ryan as MVP.

Super Bowl Reaction

Vonn Miller was a monster! He was everywhere at once, in on every play it seemed like. He was without a doubt the MVP of this game.

Thought the Panthers got hosed on the replay call. Dude, the ball never touched the ground...how can it be a incomplete pass? What was incomplete about it? From all the various camera angles, it is clear that the ball never touched the ground...if it never touched the ground, how can you say the receiver didn't catch the ball? I didn't understand it at the time and I still don't now. It never touched the ground. (Of course, every Panther fan will forever remember that two plays later, Cam was sacked, stripped and the Bronco D scored the first TD of the game)

I thought the Panthers should've run Cam more often, surprised that they didn't. Not so much for the yardage, but just to mix up the game plan, put the Bronco defense in a different mind set. He's actually not a natural born runner, he's got the size and the talent but running is not his first instinct. But a designed run or two surely would've eked out a few more 1st downs and opened things up down field. I thought the relative conservativeness with Cam was a real missed opportunity. Especially since he really wasn't passing well at all. He looked better at the beginning of the 3rd quarter but otherwise he sailed a lot of passes ll night long, I guess the Bronco secondary was throwing off his normal looks.

I didn't mind Cam not going for that fumble. It looked to me like he didn't have the right angle on it and jumping in wouldn't have given him a good shot to get the ball. I was surprised he didn't jump in but even at the time it didn't look like necessarily the right play. But even right away I knew that play was gonna be one of the talking points of the Cam backlash.

Peyton Manning was pretty terrible, dog. But the Bronco D and special teams made all the difference. And Peyton was wise enough to let his teammates win the game. So...I dunno...good game for Peyton, huh? (12 straight 3-and-outs. 12! In a Super Bowl!)

As it got closer to game time I had talked myself out of a Panther blowout but I still thought the Panthers (re: Cam) would be good enough to pull it out. I kinda thought the way the Broncos won would be the way the Panthers won: score early, maintain a decent lead all the way through, survive the comeback attempt. I thought the Broncos would cover (+5.5) and I thought the game would be under (50), so I did pretty well.

Early early early prediction for next year: Bengals over Cowboys.

Since everyone did this to the Warriors last year, I thought I'd go ahead and put it to the Broncos: aren't they lucky that they didn't have to face the Bengals (genuinely solid AFC team this year, better than the Steelers), the Chiefs (division foe that already beat them once and should've beaten them twice) and the Seahawks (with a pass rush that almost certainly would've battered Manning as bad as the Broncos battered Cam)? Just sayin'. Bengals, Chiefs and Seahawks would've been a tougher road than what the Broncos got.

Super Bowl Prediction

Okay, this is it. Last game. Sunday is just for spiritual reflection for the next 8 months...*sigh*

My initial thought, two weeks ago when this matchup was set, was that the Panthers have too much offense for the weak Bronco attack to keep up and this would probably be a blowout, definitely by the end of the 3rd quarter. But I'm having second thoughts. I can't help thinking that all the intangibles favor the Broncos and not the Panthers.

The Panthers have scored points at will this season and dominated teams at home. But the Broncos have the #1 defense and this is definitely not a home game. Also, while I don't expect the young-ish Panthers to be overwhelmed by the Super Bowl (indeed, I expect them to come out in full swagger), everything about this particular game will be different, there is no comfort level even if you're confident. The Panthers played in the 2nd worst division in the league this year and their non-conference opponents were the from the 1st worst division; their AFC games were the Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Redskins, not bad but not great. So while they dominated, they didn't face a defense as good as the Broncos. And as good as their offense was, it was actually pretty streaky and quite capable of disappearing for long stretches of time.

The Broncos got gobsmacked by the Seahawks just two years ago and I suspect that's what some are expecting again tonight: Panthers laying the wood to poor hapless Peyton and winning 42-10. But that Seahawk defense was one of the best I've ever seen, whereas this Panther D, nice as it is, will be the 2nd best defense in this game. So that scenario doesn't play. Also the scenario of the Panther offense just bumrushing the end zone again and again...I'm not seeing it. The Broncos just worked Tom Brady and the Pats offensive attack and though Cam is more dynamic than Brady, the rest of the Panther offense isn't that much better than the Pats.

Look, Cam thoroughly desvered the MVP. I thought he was was the easy choice over Palmer, Brady and Rodgers. (A little surprised he also won Offensive Player of the Year--who was the last guy to win them both?) But that goes to underscore how NOT great the rest of the Panther offense it. They're all solid, don't get me wrong, but there aren't any unstoppable forces over there with Cam, no scary playmakers that'll go above and beyond. The Panther offense this year was all about Cam making it work for everybody else. The Bronco D really only has to take out one QB and they've shown they can do that. They just beat Brady and Roethlisberger, think they can't beat the guy that's never been to a Super Bowl before?

So am I saying the Broncos are gonna win? I dunno. The conundrum at the heart of this game is Peyton Manning. If Peyton is good, which he has not been all year long, then I would think the Broncos could win. But even in that there's a catch: classic badass Peyton Manning always kinda sucked in the big games! So even if old time Peyton appears, that might not be worth anything. I can't help thinking the Broncos are better with Brock Osweiler but he's not ready to win a Super Bowl and he's not the guy they're going with. This game...who would've think it...is all about Peyton Manning.

Which is why I think Cam Newton pulls it out. Right here, right now, Cam is the better player, the better playmaker and the better leader. (Cam is Namath, Peyton is Unitas)

I think both teams score on their opening drives and then its a slog after that. Over time I think the Panthers will score more points than the Broncos but it won't be easy and I don't see this game being a blowout. I'll say 7-7 after the 1st, Panthers up 13-10 at halftime, Panthers up 20-13 after the 3rd, Panthers win 26-23 after a furious 4th quarter (which is all anyone really wants). I think the Panthers lead pretty much the whole way but the Broncos remain in striking distance right to the end. Cam wins MVP.

Super Bowl Preview

Panthers (-4.5) at Broncos (44.5)
The Bronco pass rush is the only hope the Broncos have of even staying in this game. If they can keep Cam off balance as they did with Brady, then they've got a shot to keep the game low scoring and close enough for some 4th quarter magic. Personally, I don't see that happening. The Broncos have a good defense....so do the Cards and the Seahawks, the last two squads that got carved up by the Panthers.The Panthers have a variety of weapons that the Pats don't have and Cam is far more variable in his game than Brady, so even if the pass rush is top notch, I'm not sure that's gonna be good enough anyway. The Panthers will score at least 30 points and there's just no way the Broncos can keep up with that. This looks like a replay of Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl from two years ago.

And after the Panthers drop a megaton bomb on Peyton Manning's last game (I mean, right?), won't we have to consider this Panther squad as one of the best single season teams of all time? Apart from an inexplicable brain fart against a division opponent, the Panthers have absolutely torched everyone they've played this season (and I think that will continue for one more week). Dude, they just drubbed the 2nd best team in the NFC and the defending NFC champs in the last two weeks after going 15-1 in the regular season. After they drub the #1 AFC team with the #1 defense and the Hall of Fame QB, how many other teams in history will have a resume that even comes close to that?

Cam Newton is your league MVP and should be the Super Bowl MVP, too. I gotta go Panthers and the over, something like Panthers 34-14. Book it, punters!

Super Bowl

(Player introductions have just begun, time to get out the Super Bowl pick)

As a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan, it is awkward for me to acknowledge that I've always really admired the Brady-Belichik Patriots.  I appreciate how hard they work to figure out how to win, in a world where the Philadelphia 76ers have built a long term strategy on sucking, how can you not like the Patriot attention to winning?  Belichik's legacy is as a master of roster construction as much a coach on the field; Sun Tzu would admire that he wins in the trenches because he has already won before getting to the trenches.  And while Brady doesn't eclipse any of my favorite QBs in terms of creativity, he does have massive numbers, tons of wins, and he's Belichik's QB of choice.  Obviously he is one of the great QBs of his generation (only Peyton Manning even has an argument of being better).

The Pats started this season slow.  Frankly, their OL play was so bad I thought maybe the curtain was beginning to fall.  But they righted the ship (and the Dolphins, Bengals and Texans all failed to gain ground), and since getting a beatdown in Kansas City early on, they've pretty much been untouchable.  The offense is back to being its usual machine-like self: predictable, efficient, effective.  The Pats D is the Achilles' Heel in the weak years but this season the secondary really turned out one of the best pass defenses in the league and they're solid at LB and stopping the run.

The Seahawks are the defending champs, I suspect they're the better team, they've played a harder schedule and braved a tougher playoff path than the Pats.  The D is one of the best in the league (though I'd say not as dominant as last year's version) and the offense features an efficient running game and an exciting passing game.  They've endured hardships this year (bad slump culminating in the exile of Percy Harvin) and just won perhaps the luckiest game of football I've ever seen (seriously, man, compared to the Seahawks comeback on the Packers, that Stanford lateral game looks like high school tomfoolery).  Everything is going the Seahawk way right now--they're even familiar with the stadium!  Yet somehow they roll in as the dog.

Pats (-1) at Seahawks (47.5).  These two are evenly matched but I supposed many thought that of last year's game that was over faster than a Tyson fight.

I think the Seahawks score first and get up 14-10 at the half.  Then the Pats offense starts piling up points and keep the lead through the 4th quarter.  I like the Pats to win 27-20.  Pats and the under.