2018-19 NCAA Football

(2) Clemson 44-16 (1) Alabama

Okay, well that answers a few questions I've had all season long: Since Alabama has so effortlessly crushed their opponents this season, what will happen if/when they need to exert effort (they'll lose); since Clemson has so effortlessly crushed their opponents this season, are they actually any good (oh yeah, they're good). Man, anything Clemson wanted to do, they did--right down to the expertly crafted long drive to kill the clock at the end of the game. Breath-taking is an apt phrase, I am breath-took-en. Alabama didn't even play bad in the 1st half: Tua threw two bad interceptions, but he bounced back pretty well and still moved the ball. But Clemson's offense just blew through Alabama in a way I haven't seen in years. That forced Saban to go for TD's instead of FG's and it just destroyed the Tide machine: built for dominance, not clever creativity. A fake FG? Nick Saban went for a fake fg?!? (*) Weird: less then 5 minutes into this game, Clemson was up 14-7 and they'd already punted once. 

What was this game like? I'm gonna reach back to the 2014 World Cup: Spain rolls in as the defending Champs and the 2-time Euro champ (meaning they've just won the toughest competition in the world 3 straight times), while the Netherlands roll in with their usual bunch of talented head-cases, who all seem to hate each other. Feels like Spain is gonna get a good opening result at the next Cup...Netherlands win 5-1. Game was never close, Dutch up at the half and straight pummeled Spain for the final 45 minutes. I bring this up because that was the last time I remember a balls-out, undisputed cock of the walk just getting blasted like a Rocky villain.

Or how about this one: 2005 French Open semifinals. Federer is on his way to his peak, undisputed #1, crushed at multiple Wimbledon, Australia and US Opens, just needs the French (back when Gaston Gaudio was the man at Roland Garros) to complete the slam, gets to the semis against some unranked schlub named Nadal...Federer goes down in 4 sets to the man that then goes on to be the best in the history of the French Open. Federer got handled in a way that no one had seen him get handled in a long long time. And its not that Federer played bad, quite the opposite, just turns out that Nadal was one of the best ever though no one knew that yet. 

So, is it over for Alabama? Oh, fuck no! What??? I fully expect Alabama to finish in the top 4 for at least five of the next ten years (5? Dude, that's a low ball). I expected that before this game, still expect that after this game. I'll say the same for Clemson, I fully expect Dabo to dig in a build a mighty castle there. So they're both here to stay.

I'll go ahead and guarantee that they'll meet next year in the Playoff. And that game will likely answer all my questions about next season: can Alabama bounce back? Can Clemson keep it going? Will (Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State) be good enough to crack the top 2?

Alabama should rule the SEC West for the foreseeable future. Auburn will have a good year every once in a while, LSU and A&M, too, but I got Alabama winning 4 of the next 5 SEC titles, don't you? In the East, I can see Florida jumping Georgia next year, but I expect them to finish in the top 2.

Clemson will win the ACC. (I don't even care who finishes 2nd)

I think Oklahoma is still gonna be good (they'll re-load) and Texas looks to be moving in the right direction. The rest of the Big 12 is probably playing for 3rd place.

I think Ohio State keeps going without Urban Meyer. Felt like he was more of a distraction than a plus last year, seems like his deal with Ohio State will keep him out of coaching and thus possibly able to come back to Columbus if need be, so I think moving on will be kinda painless. I expect the Buckeyes to be better next year and crush the Big 10. (I'm curious to keep an eye on Nebraska, could be a waking giant)

Notre Dame will probably be similar next year playing a similar schedule, seems very possible to me they go undefeated again and get back in Playoff contention.

Pac-12 is a clusterfuck. I wasn't that into Washington or Washington State (that decisive match was a snooze) and the championship (Washington 10-7 Utah) was a yawn. Seems like UCLA and/or USC should be on the rise (though it feels like that merely spells the football demise of Cal and Stanford, both of whom I think fade in the coming years) and Oregon and Utah will probably be pretty good. But I'm not feeling any of them challenging for the Final Four.

So what do we got? Alabama, Clemson are locks to have the talent to be worthy of a Playoff appearance. I'll take Ohio State and the winner of Oklahoma-Texas to round out the semi-final. That leaves Notre Dame, the Pac-12 winner, the winner of UGA-Florida and Central Florida complaining about not getting their chance. And, uh, I reckon that's what every year will look like for most of the next decade in college football.

The duopoly is here for a while. Long live the duopoly!


(*) Do you get why Saban's fake FG is so strange? Saban doesn't need trick plays because he has 5-6 All-Americans on his offense, he expects to get 1st downs every time out anyway. If he's resorting to tricks it means he can't get it done--he's already given up! If it had worked there would be have been a ray of hope, but if it doesn't work...shit, you didn't even get 3 points out of it...and, man, Bama fans don't feel like that very often. That play was the white flag, the announcement that the game was over, a most un-Saban-like display.

2018-19 NCAA Football Semi-finals

(3) Notre Dame - (2) Clemson (-10.5) (55.5)
The playoff fuss this year was about Georgia getting bounced just for losing to Alabama in the SEC final, with the argument being something like: 'Georgia is really good and played Alabama as well as anyone has played them in years and we all know Notre Dame isn't that good'. I can dig that argument, in my final poll I had Notre Dame 5th behind Georgia and Oklahoma. But, Notre Dame beat every team they played this year, going undefeated has to be worth something, right? The haters say that their schedule wasn't that good....well, wait a second...their schedule was way tougher than Clemson's! Clemson hasn't played a good team all year! Notre Dame beat Michigan, Northwestern, Stanford, Virginia Tech and Syracuse and the traditional powerhouses (though they both kinda sucked this year) Florida State and Southern Cal; Clemson's best W's are no better than Notre Dame's (does a scuffling save at Texas A&M get you all worked up?), so if we're so set on Georgia, why wasn't there an argument to dump Clemson? Because we've seen Clemson beat Alabama before and we've seen Notre Dame lose to Alabama before, but those are specious arguments, they have nothing to do with what will be on the fields today. After all that, I gotta say I'm as guilty as everyone else: I think Clemson has better talent and better coaching and I just assume that what they can put on the field will be superior to Notre Dame. But I could be--we all could be--totally wrong about that. I'd love to see Notre Dame have a nice run here in the playoff, but no one believes that will happen and neither do I. I'll say Clemson 31-21 (Notre Dame and the under).


(4) Oklahoma - (1) Alabama (-14) (79.5)
Oklahoma has their usual unstoppable offense but this year's defense was not up to snuff; they're top 4 in record only, realistically this team does not look to present much challenge to Alabama. The question with Alabama all year long is roughly: are they really that much better than everyone else or will they fold if they actually face some real competition? Georgia put a bit of a scare into them at the SEC final but Bama coolly made the necessary corrections and got it done. I think Oklahoma's offense is even better than Georgia's and will score points on Alabama for a while. But OU's defense isn't going to stop Alabama, so it's only a matter of time before the Tide seizes control and puts the game away, though I can see this game still being fun into the 4th quarter. I'll say Alabama 44-31 (Oklahoma and the under).

(So I went with the dog and the under in both games, even though I expect the favorites to win rather easily...? Hmmm...we'll see how that goes)

2017-18 NCAA Championship

Alabama (-4) - Georgia (over/under 45.5)

I looked back over their schedules to see if the conference crossover in the records gives anything to compare/contrast. Nope, they pretty much look the same: they both blew out Tennessee and Vandy (yeah, they were both terrible this year), both lost to Auburn (how does Auburn feel right now knowing they already thumped both of these potential 'champions'?). The only difference is Alabama kinda struggled with Mississippi State where as Georgia did not but I don't find that particularly meaningful. 

Both teams played high profile early season matches: Alabama knocked Florida State's QB out for the year, which the Seminoles never came back from; and Georgia eked out a victory over Notre Dame, who I recall was actually the better team that night (surprised the Irish didn't pull it out). For the rest of the season, I was reasonably impressed with Notre Dame while Florida State just never got on track (though they did win a bowl). So in the non-conference, I thought Georgia had the slightly better showing. 

Alabama fumbled with conference foes LSU and Texas A&M (two of Saban's personal betes noires) and couldn't move on Auburn but otherwise destroyed everyone they played in classic Crimson Tide fashion. Georgia, too, struggled against Auburn's D (the first time they played) but otherwise ripped through everyone they played better than I've ever really seen. Seems like Georgia is overrated year after year, but this year they were actually legit while Alabama is everyone's default #1 though this year they didn't really do much to earn it (one tough game, which they lost). 

I was impressed that Georgia outlasted Oklahoma--especially in a shootout which I would've thought favored the Sooners. And I was impressed that Alabama so easily suffocated Clemson, who I thought would come in with more talent and plenty of confidence. 

My first thought is that this is just Alabama being Alabama while Georgia has overachieved and Monday night will be a typical Tide coronation. But Georgia has now played two good games in a row against two different types of opponents while Alabama has only one straight win against a team not much like Georgia. Giving Nick Saban a month to plan for Clemson is one thing, but they won't have any advantage over the Bulldogs. I'm so far more impressed with Georgia getting revenge on Auburn and then going toe to toe with Oklahoma than I am with Alabama...not playing in the SEC championship and dressing down a team that had no problem with Auburn. 

I'll take the points, I think Georgia moves the ball and controls the pace. I'll take Georgia and the under. Something like Georgia 24-20.