Players
Opting into their 2019-20 player options: CJ Miles (Grizzlies), Kent Bazemore (Hawks), Jeff Teague (Wolves), Bismack Biyombo (Hornets), Dwight Howard (Wizards), Allen Crabbe (Nets), Patrick Patterson (Thunder)
I would still expect Miles, Bazemore and Patterson to be on the move this summer. I expect Teague and Crabbe to be integral for their squads next year. I expect Biyombo to get stretched. And I have no idea what to expect of Howard.
Declining their 2019-20 player options: Dwight Powell (Mavs), James Ennis (Sixers), Devin Robinson (Wizards; team option)
I can see Powell getting a raise from the Mavs (I can also see him elsewhere like, say, the Kings). I thought Ennis had some impactful minutes in the playoffs and I think he'll get a raise from his $1.8m from last year. I have no idea who Robinson is, summer leaguer?
Coaches
Fired: Larry Drew (Cavs), JB Bickerstaff (Grizzlies), Dave Joerger (Kings), Luke Walton (Lakers), Igor Kokoskov (Suns)
Joerger and Walton are two of the better coaches in the league and the fact that they both got fired is pretty crazy (although the Kings moved on from Joerger to Walton, so not necessarily a step down for them). Drew and Bickerstaff were probably never really likely to move beyond their interim status. Why exactly did the Suns hire Kokoskov in the first place? And does getting knee-capped by the Suns in every where kill his chances to get another gig in the NBA?
Hired: Luke Walton (Kings), Monty Williams (Suns), Frank Vogel (Lakers), Ryan Saunders (Wolves), John Beilien (Cavs), JB Bickerstaff (Cavs asst coach),
Walton and the Kings seem like a good fit to me. Williams is a legendarily nice guy but I've never seen any evidence that he's much of a coach. Vogel is walking into a tough situation but he's a for-real coaching lifer, this is probably just a stop before he heads to the NCAA, don't ya think? Saunders is the ideal palette cleanser after the disastrous Thibodeau years. Bielein and Bickerstaff seem like a good start for the Cavs to rebuild around.
Signed to extension: Doc Rivers (Clippers), Terry Stotts (Blazers), Jim Boylen (Bulls)
Rivers and Stotts had great years and both are in situations that look good going forward. Boylen...uh...well...someone's gotta coach the Bulls.
Execs
Out: Magic Johnson (Lakers), Chris Wallace (Grizzlies; demoted to scout)
(In the voice of Col. Kurtz): The Lakers...the Lakers. The Grizzlies front office turned into quite a crazed shitfest this summer, not sure where any of that is headed, but I'm anticipating a full-on teardown this summer because they're ready for tank mode.
In or Extended: Vlade Divac (Kings GM & VP), James Jones (Suns GM), Jeff Bower (Suns VP), Glenn Grunwald (Grizzlies adviser), Rich Cho (Grizzlies VP), Aaron Nelson (Pelicans VP),
Vlade has made weird moves (traded Boogie, fired Joerger) but they've drafted well, have an excellent core and the coach of their dreams, so gotta give the man credit. I'm not sure what the Suns, Grizzlies or Pelicans are doing or if these moves are of any use at all.
Thursday, May 30, 2019
2018-19 NBA Finals
The Raptors took advantage of yet another late collapse by the Bucks to earn their first trip to the NBA Finals. The Raptors were able to ride their experienced vets while the Bucks suddenly looked like a bunch of dudes that have never been this far before (*). The Bucks are a team built around Giannis and when he's got his game going, everyone else has a lot more room to maneuver, but what I didn't notice until the last coupla games: it isn't Giannis that gets it going, it's Middleton; Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else follows. And in those last three games Middleton checked out and the Bucks couldn't overcome his disappearance. So if they let Middleton go (I'm guessing they will, he's gonna want more than they're gonna wanna pay), what they need to look for is a pass-first ball-handler with an eye for what makes Giannis go (don't seem sexy, but how about Cory Joseph?). To that end, they must retain Brogdon first and foremost and groom him to replace Middleton's early-game confidence. And if they can keep Lopez on something like a bargain deal, I reckon he'll be back, too. But I'd be pretty surprised to see Middleton or Mirotic back in the fold next year (and if they can move on from Tony Snell, that would probably be a good idea). They don't have a lot of money to spend but they do have Giannis, Coach Bud and a suddenly hardened supporting cast. The Bucks announced themselves as a premiere regular season squad, I'd say they're still the favorite for #1 in the East.
I like the Raptors, I like their outside shooting, their rebounding, their defense, their fans are rabid, the coach seems like a gamer and the bench is still effective (Van Vleet!) even as the rotation tightens up. And if the Warriors are rolling in with a hobbled Kevin Durant and a probably unreliable Demarcus Cousins, they've got a real shot at pulling the upset. This is the weakest Warriors side since their first appearance back in the day. That said, the Warriors still have a lot of talent and know-how, can Kawhi be enough to rattle them? I think Lowry really needs to be a monster for the Raptors to win, if he plays flawless basketball that's gonna give the Warriors some serious problems. Gasol, Green and Ibaka need to be merely reliable, whatever they get out of Powell and Van Vleet is a bonus and I'm curious to see if they get anything out Patrick McCaw, but Lowry needs to be a scorer and a foul accumulator.
The Warriors have off-court turmoil (sorta) that threatens to interfere with their year's title run, even though we all know that Durant is gone and that they never needed Cousins to begin with (could be more of a liability than a help in this series). Seeing how they handle Durant's absence--and possible return--is really the fun part of this series. He clearly won't play in Game One, doesn't seem likely for Game Two either. How can he play Game Three? If it gets to Game Seven, that's different, that's all hands on deck time. But any time before that seems like either a desperate gamble by the team or an indefensible attention grab by Durant. And if Cousins piles up technicals or has an adverse outburst, how do they handle that? Cousins was always just a time-killing rental, never really a part of the team, what do they do if he costs them a game or throws off the feng shui? Draymond has been great this post-season, Curry has been Curry, Klay has been good (thought not great), and Iguodala has generally been very good. They've gotten good minutes out of Looney, McKinnie and Jerebko but Livingston has been unreliable and Bogut is just there for old time's sake. That main four is still pretty great, the rest of the cast knows what they're there to do and I don't think they need Durant or Cousins to win.
I like the Raptors to take Game One but it seems inconceivable that the Warriors come back home down 2-0, so I gotta take the Warriors in Game Two. Back home, I like the Warriors to get their groove back and be up 3-1 heading back to Toronto. I like the Raptors to take Game Five and the Warriors to finish the series off in Game Six. If that works out, then I suspect Curry wins MVP, unless Klay shoots the lights out and shuts down Lowry (though Draymond may well be the most deserving). Warriors in 6.
(*) Even though I thought the Raptors were the most likely team to come out of the East all year long, I went with the Bucks going into the Conference Finals. Looking back on it, it feels like I was actually overrating the Celtics and underrating the Sixers. The ease with which the Bucks demolished the Celtics seemed so much more impressive three weeks ago and the struggle the Raptors had with the Sixers seems much more impressive now. As weird as that Sixers roster is and as solid as the Celtics roster seemed, feels now like the Sixers are a lot closer to success than the Celtics (and possibly even the Bucks!). The Raptors need Kawhi back and the chances of that seem better with every W.
I like the Raptors, I like their outside shooting, their rebounding, their defense, their fans are rabid, the coach seems like a gamer and the bench is still effective (Van Vleet!) even as the rotation tightens up. And if the Warriors are rolling in with a hobbled Kevin Durant and a probably unreliable Demarcus Cousins, they've got a real shot at pulling the upset. This is the weakest Warriors side since their first appearance back in the day. That said, the Warriors still have a lot of talent and know-how, can Kawhi be enough to rattle them? I think Lowry really needs to be a monster for the Raptors to win, if he plays flawless basketball that's gonna give the Warriors some serious problems. Gasol, Green and Ibaka need to be merely reliable, whatever they get out of Powell and Van Vleet is a bonus and I'm curious to see if they get anything out Patrick McCaw, but Lowry needs to be a scorer and a foul accumulator.
The Warriors have off-court turmoil (sorta) that threatens to interfere with their year's title run, even though we all know that Durant is gone and that they never needed Cousins to begin with (could be more of a liability than a help in this series). Seeing how they handle Durant's absence--and possible return--is really the fun part of this series. He clearly won't play in Game One, doesn't seem likely for Game Two either. How can he play Game Three? If it gets to Game Seven, that's different, that's all hands on deck time. But any time before that seems like either a desperate gamble by the team or an indefensible attention grab by Durant. And if Cousins piles up technicals or has an adverse outburst, how do they handle that? Cousins was always just a time-killing rental, never really a part of the team, what do they do if he costs them a game or throws off the feng shui? Draymond has been great this post-season, Curry has been Curry, Klay has been good (thought not great), and Iguodala has generally been very good. They've gotten good minutes out of Looney, McKinnie and Jerebko but Livingston has been unreliable and Bogut is just there for old time's sake. That main four is still pretty great, the rest of the cast knows what they're there to do and I don't think they need Durant or Cousins to win.
I like the Raptors to take Game One but it seems inconceivable that the Warriors come back home down 2-0, so I gotta take the Warriors in Game Two. Back home, I like the Warriors to get their groove back and be up 3-1 heading back to Toronto. I like the Raptors to take Game Five and the Warriors to finish the series off in Game Six. If that works out, then I suspect Curry wins MVP, unless Klay shoots the lights out and shuts down Lowry (though Draymond may well be the most deserving). Warriors in 6.
(*) Even though I thought the Raptors were the most likely team to come out of the East all year long, I went with the Bucks going into the Conference Finals. Looking back on it, it feels like I was actually overrating the Celtics and underrating the Sixers. The ease with which the Bucks demolished the Celtics seemed so much more impressive three weeks ago and the struggle the Raptors had with the Sixers seems much more impressive now. As weird as that Sixers roster is and as solid as the Celtics roster seemed, feels now like the Sixers are a lot closer to success than the Celtics (and possibly even the Bucks!). The Raptors need Kawhi back and the chances of that seem better with every W.
Saturday, May 25, 2019
2018-19 NBA Conference Finals
In the West, the Warriors have moved on. Not much to dissect: the Blazers just aren't as good as the Warriors and since Lillard never looked quite right (busted ribs?), the Blazers never had a chance in this series. They probably should've pulled out Game Three but they ran out of gas late and that was that; yeah, I get that Meyers Leonard balled out in the first half, but that was found money and they needed to not rely on him in the second half. Blazers had a hell of a year, a lot to be proud of. They'll be losing a raft of supporting cast this summer (Aminu, Kanter, Seth Curry, Hood and Layman) and they're already over the cap, so they'll need to be creative to put together the right roster next season (if they could package Evan Turner and/or Meyers Leonard into a coupla lower-priced bench players, they'd only need to stay healthy to have a chance in the post-season).
In the East, I am puzzled on the eve of Game Six. My pre-season pick to come out of the East was the Raptors and I reiterated that going into the post-season. But going into this final series I switched to the Bucks because they just seemed to have a better sense of themselves and, well, the Bucks were the best team in the league all season long. But they blinked and suddenly they do not look like themselves and that makes tonight's game extremely intriguing.
Honestly it's that Games Three and Four were reversed from the likely reality that makes this all so weird. If I told you that after winning the first two in Milwaukee that the Bucks looked flat in Toronto and the Raptors bench came alive and put a good whooping on the Bucks, well, that wouldn't be such a shock. And if the next game was a rock fight that turned into a double overtime struggle that the home team Raptors pulled out to even the series, well, that wouldn't be such a shock either. But the fact that it happened the other way around doesn't make much sense. Game Three was the double OT slugfest (and rather shockingly dull game, incidentally) while Game Four was the Raptors onslaught, that...uh...makes you go, 'Wait, what's going on?' Did the Raptors just take hold of this series? Is this a home team wins every game series?
I assumed the Bucks would turn it around back home in Game Five but they did not. Indeed, I was amazed at how close it was and that the Bucks still should've won it considering that Giannis never got his groove going, Middleton didn't shoot the ball (not that he didn't shoot well, but that he didn't shoot at all!), Bledsoe had moments but no consistency, Connaughton was kinda awful, Lopez wasn't much help, Hill had a coupla nice moments but nothing that sustained, I thought really only Brogdon looked like himself out there. Meanwhile, the Raptors controlled the flow by the end of the 1st quarter, they were getting the calls (I was blown away at Siakam and Gasol getting calls that Giannis was not getting), and their bench shined out (Van Vleet! Gotta say fatherhood looks good on him) in front of a stunned Milwaukee crowd. So wtf just happened? The Raptors did everything right, had all the luck and the Bucks did everything wrong...and the Bucks were still in it late. So are the Raptors the better team asserting dominance? Or are the Bucks the better team and just not getting lucky?
The Bucks go into Game Six on their first 3-game losing streak of the season and the Raptors are one home win away from the Finals. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. If Giannis doesn't get the calls tonight, the Bucks are finished; but if he snaps back into his game, I think the Bucks can still win the next two games. Giannis looks shook and Kawhi, well that dude never looks shook. I gotta think the Raptors are gonna take it tonight simply because you would expect the home team's supporting cast to to be more effective, but it could all come down to the refs. Look forward to this game as much as any NBA game since opening night!
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
2018-19 NBA Conference Finals
Blazers - Warriors
Damien Lillard is balling, CJ McCollum has had some of that Lillard shine rub off on him, Rodney Hood has had a resurgence, Enes Kanter is jitterbugging around the basket pretty good right now, Al-Farouk Aminu is a pretty good defender, Mo Harkless and Evan Turner have had moments, Seth Curry is a neat thing to have off the bench in this series, even Zach Collins showed up and gave good minutes in the last round (and did you realize Meyers Leonard had 30 FGA against the Nuggets? He took thirty shots?). I like the way the Blazers play and when Lillard is commanding the attention, everyone else has room to have a good game, so this team really can hang with anyone.
Unfortunately, the Warriors are better than the Blazers even without Durant. Curry has been balling out again lately, Draymond is reborn (*), Klay was great on D against the Rockets (only so-so on offense), Iguodala looked as good as he's looked in a while and Kevon Looney looks like a legit part of the offense again; but Durant is gone (at least for a while), Cousins is gone (right?), Jerebko is nice but hasn't quite found his spot yet, Livingston has not looked good on either side in a while, Bogut is just for a few minutes at a time, McKinnie and Cook seem like nice guys. But Curry and Klay and Draymond are back in charge and that is, I think, a beautiful thing. All the Warriors need.
My gut was to go Warriors in 5 because I just can't make the case that the Blazers can win overall, so why not go ahead and finish them off quickly? But I'm not sure that follows because Lillard alone is dangerous. But...I feel like the Warriors will be up 3-1 after 4, so I gotta go Warriors in 5 (wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers won Game One).
Raptors - Bucks
My pre-season pick was Raptors over Warriors, which was also my prediction going into the post-season, too, so it seems like that's what I'd go with here. Nope. The Bucks are better than the Raptors. I like the make-up of the Raptors...if they'd had more experience together. Gasol, especially, looks lost out there at times as do Ibaka and Green, throw in that Siakam is in a brand new place in his career and it seems like Lowry still hasn't quite calibrated all of his teammates to the game plan. They lived off a deep bench all season long but that's more or less gone now, so it all comes down to how quickly this core can come together. The fact that that's even something to worry about makes them no match for the Bucks.
Giannis is the undisputed center of the Bucks universe. When he's on, the rest of the supporting cast has room to make do their thing and contribute. If he's getting the calls, the Bucks are not gonna be beaten by the Raptors. If Giannis struggles to find his game, the Buck supporting cast is not enough to win, so the Raptors must stop Giannis. I don't see how they get that done. I don't see how the Raptors outperform Giannis, therefore I cannot make the case for the Raptors to win. I want these both of these matchups to closer but I just don't think they are. The Warriors and Bucks are better than their opponents. So, like the Warriors, I will take Bucks in 5.
(*) Draymond can get thrown out of any game at any given moment as reliably as anyone I've ever seen--even Rasheed Wallace had more sense of himself than this. As we see the refs increasingly get yelled at, dismissed or conferred with after every play, does Draymond shield a lot of other players to yap or does he close down the refs' desire to hear anything from anyone? Does he make a ref more or less reactionary? And how does that play out for everyone else on the court? I dunno, but I'll be watching that for as long as Draymond remains in these playoffs.
Damien Lillard is balling, CJ McCollum has had some of that Lillard shine rub off on him, Rodney Hood has had a resurgence, Enes Kanter is jitterbugging around the basket pretty good right now, Al-Farouk Aminu is a pretty good defender, Mo Harkless and Evan Turner have had moments, Seth Curry is a neat thing to have off the bench in this series, even Zach Collins showed up and gave good minutes in the last round (and did you realize Meyers Leonard had 30 FGA against the Nuggets? He took thirty shots?). I like the way the Blazers play and when Lillard is commanding the attention, everyone else has room to have a good game, so this team really can hang with anyone.
Unfortunately, the Warriors are better than the Blazers even without Durant. Curry has been balling out again lately, Draymond is reborn (*), Klay was great on D against the Rockets (only so-so on offense), Iguodala looked as good as he's looked in a while and Kevon Looney looks like a legit part of the offense again; but Durant is gone (at least for a while), Cousins is gone (right?), Jerebko is nice but hasn't quite found his spot yet, Livingston has not looked good on either side in a while, Bogut is just for a few minutes at a time, McKinnie and Cook seem like nice guys. But Curry and Klay and Draymond are back in charge and that is, I think, a beautiful thing. All the Warriors need.
My gut was to go Warriors in 5 because I just can't make the case that the Blazers can win overall, so why not go ahead and finish them off quickly? But I'm not sure that follows because Lillard alone is dangerous. But...I feel like the Warriors will be up 3-1 after 4, so I gotta go Warriors in 5 (wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers won Game One).
Raptors - Bucks
My pre-season pick was Raptors over Warriors, which was also my prediction going into the post-season, too, so it seems like that's what I'd go with here. Nope. The Bucks are better than the Raptors. I like the make-up of the Raptors...if they'd had more experience together. Gasol, especially, looks lost out there at times as do Ibaka and Green, throw in that Siakam is in a brand new place in his career and it seems like Lowry still hasn't quite calibrated all of his teammates to the game plan. They lived off a deep bench all season long but that's more or less gone now, so it all comes down to how quickly this core can come together. The fact that that's even something to worry about makes them no match for the Bucks.
Giannis is the undisputed center of the Bucks universe. When he's on, the rest of the supporting cast has room to make do their thing and contribute. If he's getting the calls, the Bucks are not gonna be beaten by the Raptors. If Giannis struggles to find his game, the Buck supporting cast is not enough to win, so the Raptors must stop Giannis. I don't see how they get that done. I don't see how the Raptors outperform Giannis, therefore I cannot make the case for the Raptors to win. I want these both of these matchups to closer but I just don't think they are. The Warriors and Bucks are better than their opponents. So, like the Warriors, I will take Bucks in 5.
(*) Draymond can get thrown out of any game at any given moment as reliably as anyone I've ever seen--even Rasheed Wallace had more sense of himself than this. As we see the refs increasingly get yelled at, dismissed or conferred with after every play, does Draymond shield a lot of other players to yap or does he close down the refs' desire to hear anything from anyone? Does he make a ref more or less reactionary? And how does that play out for everyone else on the court? I dunno, but I'll be watching that for as long as Draymond remains in these playoffs.
Saturday, May 11, 2019
2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)
Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.
The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.
Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).
The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.
And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!
I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.
I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.
(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.
The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.
Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).
The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.
And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!
I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.
I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.
(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.
Thursday, May 9, 2019
2018-19 Champions League Semi-finals
Tottenham 0-1 Ajax
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
(3-3; Tottenham advances on road goals)
Wow, what a fucking finish. The 1st leg was a microcosm of the whole tourney for these two teams: Ajax played smart and together, Tottenham tried to play too fast and got nothing going on offense and fell apart on defense. The first half of the 2nd leg was more of the same, Ajax dominating possession and up 2-0 at the break. Then Tottenham continued their run off pulling it out of their asses late, while Ajax suddenly looked like one of the early round opponents (namely, rattled and back pedaling in the face of a superior team). When the game gets loose, Tottenham gets it going and they're keeping the Texas Tech vibe alive for me: I still don't know how they got by Manchester City, now I don't know how they got by Ajax--maybe Tottenham is good!
Barcelona 3-0 Liverpool
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
(Liverpool 4-3)
I will say I'm not shocked that Liverpool came back and stole this late. Hey, Livepool had offense, they attack well and Barcelona had, until the 2nd leg o the semifinals, more or less coasted through this tourney without having to work for it. That said, Barca would've taken the draw, so they were still able to win right to the last second and they couldn't muster up even a hint of offense. (*) So Liverpool scores right away and add another right after halftime, both of which were legit goals: keeper was basically unable to stop either of them. Then the third goal right after that was one of the most perfect headers I've ever seen: that dude's like 10 feet in the air and has torqued his back in an impossible position to perfectly turn his head to re-direct the pass into the upper 90 (absolutely fucking flawless!). Then the fourth goal will be the favorite of Liverpool fans for the next 50 years: the casual walk away, then quick step back catching everyone off guard and finding the only guy that's actually paying attention, who then beats the keeper. Holy shit, man. I've never seen anything like that. And Barca was still alive to make it frisky right down to the wire but they just didn't have it in them somehow. That last goal was such a kick in the solar plexus that they were just stunned from then on. All English final, I'm stunned, as well.
Champions League Final (June 1, 2019)
Tottenham v. Liverpool
Okay, I didn't believe in Texas Tech all through this year's NCAA tourney because they kept winning so improbably, until the championship when I finally gave up my inhibitions and decided that Tech was capable of beating anyone. Yeah, well Tech lost in the Final (great game, but not great enough for Tech) because they finally played a team that was exactly like them...they were their own kryptonite. Now Tottenham faces another Premier League side but I think Liverpool is better. I'm not shocked that Liverpool came back and beat Barca, but I'm still amazed Tottenham came back on Man City and on Ajax. Liverpool beat a better team and I wasn't shocked....indicates to me that I think Liverpool is the better team and in a one-game final, I think they're more likely to control the flow and score more goals. I gotta go with Liverpool (I'll say they win 2-1).
(*) I don't typically break down plays but there was one in this game that almost broke my brain when I first saw it and after it was all over I had to go back to. 1st half at the 15:40 mark, Barca midfielder gets a long ball over the defense, two other strikers slip their defenders and its a 4-on-2 breakaway for Barca, ends up with Messi unmarked at the top of the box with three dudes to pass and a lot of goal to shoot at...hesitates too long, defender pokes it away at the last second. That's the play that will haunt the Barca faithful, they would've ended the game early, they let it get by them, Liverpool whittled them down and drank their milkshake.
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
(3-3; Tottenham advances on road goals)
Wow, what a fucking finish. The 1st leg was a microcosm of the whole tourney for these two teams: Ajax played smart and together, Tottenham tried to play too fast and got nothing going on offense and fell apart on defense. The first half of the 2nd leg was more of the same, Ajax dominating possession and up 2-0 at the break. Then Tottenham continued their run off pulling it out of their asses late, while Ajax suddenly looked like one of the early round opponents (namely, rattled and back pedaling in the face of a superior team). When the game gets loose, Tottenham gets it going and they're keeping the Texas Tech vibe alive for me: I still don't know how they got by Manchester City, now I don't know how they got by Ajax--maybe Tottenham is good!
Barcelona 3-0 Liverpool
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
(Liverpool 4-3)
I will say I'm not shocked that Liverpool came back and stole this late. Hey, Livepool had offense, they attack well and Barcelona had, until the 2nd leg o the semifinals, more or less coasted through this tourney without having to work for it. That said, Barca would've taken the draw, so they were still able to win right to the last second and they couldn't muster up even a hint of offense. (*) So Liverpool scores right away and add another right after halftime, both of which were legit goals: keeper was basically unable to stop either of them. Then the third goal right after that was one of the most perfect headers I've ever seen: that dude's like 10 feet in the air and has torqued his back in an impossible position to perfectly turn his head to re-direct the pass into the upper 90 (absolutely fucking flawless!). Then the fourth goal will be the favorite of Liverpool fans for the next 50 years: the casual walk away, then quick step back catching everyone off guard and finding the only guy that's actually paying attention, who then beats the keeper. Holy shit, man. I've never seen anything like that. And Barca was still alive to make it frisky right down to the wire but they just didn't have it in them somehow. That last goal was such a kick in the solar plexus that they were just stunned from then on. All English final, I'm stunned, as well.
Champions League Final (June 1, 2019)
Tottenham v. Liverpool
Okay, I didn't believe in Texas Tech all through this year's NCAA tourney because they kept winning so improbably, until the championship when I finally gave up my inhibitions and decided that Tech was capable of beating anyone. Yeah, well Tech lost in the Final (great game, but not great enough for Tech) because they finally played a team that was exactly like them...they were their own kryptonite. Now Tottenham faces another Premier League side but I think Liverpool is better. I'm not shocked that Liverpool came back and beat Barca, but I'm still amazed Tottenham came back on Man City and on Ajax. Liverpool beat a better team and I wasn't shocked....indicates to me that I think Liverpool is the better team and in a one-game final, I think they're more likely to control the flow and score more goals. I gotta go with Liverpool (I'll say they win 2-1).
(*) I don't typically break down plays but there was one in this game that almost broke my brain when I first saw it and after it was all over I had to go back to. 1st half at the 15:40 mark, Barca midfielder gets a long ball over the defense, two other strikers slip their defenders and its a 4-on-2 breakaway for Barca, ends up with Messi unmarked at the top of the box with three dudes to pass and a lot of goal to shoot at...hesitates too long, defender pokes it away at the last second. That's the play that will haunt the Barca faithful, they would've ended the game early, they let it get by them, Liverpool whittled them down and drank their milkshake.
Thursday, May 2, 2019
2018-19 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)
(Bucks in 4; I said Bucks in 4)
Pistons 86-121 Bucks
Pistons 86-121 Bucks
Pistons 99-120 Bucks
Bucks 119-103 Pistons
Bucks 127-104 Pistons
There was no way--NO WAY--the Pistons were going to beat the Bucks anyway, but without Blake Griffin for 3 games (and then a weird hobbling shell of him for the 4th), there was no way the Pistons were even going to have a moment of looking like they could win a game. None of these games were close and that was as good as it was ever gonna get for the Pistons. The Pistons are an okay team, they're an 8th place in the East kinda team and I wouldn't be surprised to see them between 7th-9th next year, too.
(Raptors in 5; I said Raptors in 4)
Magic 104-101 Raptors
Magic 82-111 Raptors
Raptors 98-93 Magic
Raptors 107-85 Magic
Magic 96-115 Raptors
(Sixers in 5; I said Sixers in 5)
Nets 111-102 Sixers
Nets 123-145 Sixers
Sixers 131-115 Nets
Sixers 112-108 Nets
Nets 100-122 Sixers
This series showed us the high and low of the Sixers: Game One was a lot of standing around waiting for someone else to get it done and sloppy defense in the face of a scrappy team that has nothing to lose. But Game Two was the exact opposite: tough team defense and everyone contributed on offense and that's when the Sixers are at their best. I still want to see the Sixers do this a little more consistently before I'm ready to think they'll go deeper, but they've got the talent to do damage. The Nets are a spunky little team, came up well this year, if they can draft well and make a nice move or two in the summer, they might be ready to move up (say, if Kawhi splits, if Kyrie splits, if the Sixers strike out, or if someone gets hurt) next year.
(Celtics in 4; I said Celtics in 7)
Pacers 74-84 Celtics
Pacers 91-99 Celtics
Celtics 104-96 Pacers
Celtics 110-106 Pacers
I thought the Celtics would win but I thought the Pacers would push them, force the Celtics to man up and be as goo as they're supposed to be. Well, credit the Celtics for not waiting for tragedy and coming in ready to play in Game One. The Pacers have played well since Oladipo went down and I thought they could continue that intensity against a waffling Celtics side, but the deficiencies finally caught up to them and the Celtics took advantage. The Pacers are still in good position to be in the top five in the East next year and they've got moves to make, I can see them leapfrogging toward the top.
(Warriors in 6; I said Warriors in 4)
Clippers 104-121 Warriors
Clippers 135-131 Warriors
Warriors 132-105 Clippers
Warriors 113-105 Clippers
Clippers 129-121 Warriors
Warriors 129-110 Clippers
Bwa-ha! The Warriors had to play six games to get past the Clippers...something about that just makes me giggle. The Clippers were strangely good this year and when they recognize that they've got nothing else to do but play hard, they're not a bad team. The Warriors seemed to forget that in this series. They built up the big lead in Game Two (yeah, even I stopped watching) and then just sat there stunned while the Clippers came back and took the game. And in Game Five, the Warriors had one of those moments where all the stars kept waiting for someone else to do all the scoring (also, where was Steph in the last 5 minutes? Everyone's chucking up desperation 3's and no one's giving Curry the ball? WTF?) and then they took the lead back near the end...and than promptly stopped playing, allowing the Clippers to steal another one. The Warriors have a Federer-like tendency to occasionally zone out and give up points when it seems like they ought to be crushing and the Clippers have a tendency to just be a thorn in the side of superior foes, in this case it turned an easy sweep into a 6-game slugfest. Oh well, the Warriors are still really good. The Clippers had a great season and have a lot of room to make moves this summer--they could be really good really fast next year.
(Nuggets in 7; I said Nuggets in 6)
Spurs 101-96 Nuggets
Spurs 105-114 Nuggets
Nuggets 108-118 Spurs
Nuggets 117-103 Spurs
Spurs 108-90 Nuggets
Nuggets 103-120 Spurs
Spurs 86-90 Nuggets
The dynamic at work here is that the Nuggets are a young team that have good talent but aren't really sure what they're doing and that the Spurs are a veteran squad loaded with savvy but maybe a step slower on the court. That played out in both teams stealing games they should've lost/dropping games they should've won. I think the Nuggets were the better team and deserved to win but the Spurs pushed them hard because they've got the smarts to hang....until the end of Game Seven....when the veteran Spurs stood around and watched the clock run out instead of....well....anything would've been better than just standing there powerless. Weird finish for the Spurs but I expect them to be good again next year because they're the Spurs (but the Mavs, Grizzlies and Lakers will be coming and the Clippers might much better).
(Blazers in 5; I said Blazers in 7)
Thunder 99-104 Blazers
Thunder 94-114 Blazers
Blazers 108-120 Thunder
Blazers 111-98 Thunder
Thunder 115-118 Blazers
I thought this was a classic 'home team wins every game' series and it stayed that way until the Blazers took over the series by winning Game Four and from there you just knew OKC was gonna flounder. The Blazers looked good, they know who they are (re: Lillard and his supporting cast) and they play their roles effectively. This is not a great team but they stick together, they've got good depth and when Lillard is unstoppable mode, they can win games they're not supposed to. The Thunder should be better than they are--should be better than the Blazers--but OKC has never been comfortable just being Westbrook's sidekicks. Not sure where the Thunder goes this off-season, feels like its time to make some major moves.
(Rockets in 5; I said Rockets in 5)
Jazz 90-122 Rockets
Jazz 98-118 Rockets
Rockets 104-101 Jazz
Rockets 91-107 Jazz
Jazz 93-100 Rockets
Yeah, the gentleman's sweep was what was supposed to happen. The Rockets have too much scoring, the Jazz don't have enough. The Jazz are still on the proper path: they're getting better coalescing around Donovan Mitchell and I think Coach Snyder is still a good fit for what they're trying to do. But to go deeper in the post-season, they need another big time scorer.
(I was traveling for most of April and was unable to update the blog. Each semi series has already played two games, I'll try to be as objective as I can)
Celtics 112-90 Bucks
Celtics 102-123 Bucks
The Celtics stung the Bucks in Game One, wresting control of the series right away after quickly dispatching the Pacers in a manner I didn't think them capable of. But I'm not sure there was anything from Game One that they'll be able to replicate from here on out, so I think there is a slim chance that the Celtics have peaked and might be done. I think the main takeaway from the first game was that Giannis was not getting calls he expected, which changed his attacking style, which warped the way his supporting cast goes about their jobs, which culminated in a full-on thumping. Okay, there's the model: frustrate Giannis and the rest of the team falls apart. Except that it wasn't the Celtics that accomplished this, it was the refs. And I think that was just a fluke. So while the Celtics picked a great time to go on a 5-game winning streak and look much better, much more fluid than at any time during the regular season, I still think the Bucks will move on. I'll stick with Bucks in 7.
Sixers 95-108 Raptors
Sixers 94-89 Raptors
This is an interesting match: the Raptors have been good for a while now but they've made major changes this year and have never really had much success in the post-season; while the Sixers have sucked forever, finally put together their core, remolded the supporting cast around them and are ready to move forward...except that they're still weirdly put together and don't have a clear path to success. If this was pure talent, I'd go Sixers. But when you factor in the intangibles, the Raptors are a deeper, richer squad and should have plenty enough to get past the Sixers. That said, the Raptors do go cold from time to time while the Sixers get hot from time to time, if those periods overlap, the Sixers could do some damage. But I think the Raptors are stable enough to avoid long stretches of zilch, whereas I still think the Sixers are a year away. I'll stick with Raptors in 6.
Rockets 100-104 Warriors
Rockets 109-115 Warriors
Isn't it interesting that the Rockets are the only team to fail to steal a W on the road in the first two games? Much is being made about the officiating but that's all a red herring, these are arguably the two best teams in the league and its going to take a supreme effort (and some luck) to escape this series. This the Harden v Durant show...I'll take Durant. I think he's more reliable, more fun, inspires more from his teammates and has more variety to his ability to score. Don't get me wrong: this series isn't over, the Rockets are gonna be tough to beat at home. But the Warriors have been here before, the Rockets are still new to this. I'll take Warriors in 7.
Blazers 113-121 Nuggets
Blazers 97-90 Nuggets
Quite simply: I think the Blazers are ready to take a step up and I don't think the Nuggets are. I think Lillard can control a game and make the most of his teammates better than Jokic can (for now). The Nuggets are too reliant on Jamal Murray: when he scores they win, when he doesn't they lose. I just don't see him rising up 4 times out of 7 against this Blazer team. The Blazers on the other hand just need to play their game, be consistent and they should win. I'll take Blazers in 6.
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
2018-19 Champions League Quarterfinals (2nd Leg)
(I saw these games but was on the road and didn't get a chance to do these wrap-ups in a timely manner; also, both of the semis have started but I haven't watched either yet)
Juventus 1-2 Ajax (agg 2-3)
Ajax is a gritty gutty team that plays crisp football and gets it done more often than not. I can't help feeling like they're the plucky underdog that has overachieved but, man, they've been better than Juventus in these two matches, so can't front on them as they move forward. Juventus is fine but beyond Ronaldo, I'm not feeling the attack up front.
Barcelona 3-0 Manchester United (agg 4-0)
Yeah, the score tells the story. Man U lucked their way through the Round of 16 (PSG would've made this match a lot more fun) and were way over-matched against Barca here. Barca took a while to get going but once they did, they piled it on.
Porto 1-4 Liverpool (agg 1-6)
Liverpool's offense was just too much for Porto to deal with. Porto gave a good effort but they just weren't built to last against Liverpool.
Manchester City 3-4 Tottenham (agg 4-4)
Crazy game! They each had goals taken off the board, too, that just add to the craziness. Personally, I thought Man City was the better team throughout but they didn't get the score to go their way. Oh well.
Semi-finals
Tottenham-Ajax
Felt like this should be a Man City-Juventus matchup, right? Well, Tottenham is the Texas Tech of this tournament: I've been watching them win at every level and yet I can't help thinking they've wildly overachieved and shouldn't have gotten this far--but then again, Tech massively impressed me in the Final, they very much deserved to be there, and perhaps Tottenham will rise up and prove me wrong again. I like Ajax, they play a tight, teamwork game and I think they're the favorite here.
Barcelona-Liverpool
The real final, no? Barca is rolling but somehow they don't seem like they've really had to do anything yet, you know? Liverpool's offense is really good and they will keep Barca honest. This is a great matchup, looking forward to catching this opening game (which I am about to watch right now). I guess I'll give Barca just because they're really good but I wouldn't be shocked if Liverpool outworked them.
Juventus 1-2 Ajax (agg 2-3)
Ajax is a gritty gutty team that plays crisp football and gets it done more often than not. I can't help feeling like they're the plucky underdog that has overachieved but, man, they've been better than Juventus in these two matches, so can't front on them as they move forward. Juventus is fine but beyond Ronaldo, I'm not feeling the attack up front.
Barcelona 3-0 Manchester United (agg 4-0)
Yeah, the score tells the story. Man U lucked their way through the Round of 16 (PSG would've made this match a lot more fun) and were way over-matched against Barca here. Barca took a while to get going but once they did, they piled it on.
Porto 1-4 Liverpool (agg 1-6)
Liverpool's offense was just too much for Porto to deal with. Porto gave a good effort but they just weren't built to last against Liverpool.
Manchester City 3-4 Tottenham (agg 4-4)
Crazy game! They each had goals taken off the board, too, that just add to the craziness. Personally, I thought Man City was the better team throughout but they didn't get the score to go their way. Oh well.
Semi-finals
Tottenham-Ajax
Felt like this should be a Man City-Juventus matchup, right? Well, Tottenham is the Texas Tech of this tournament: I've been watching them win at every level and yet I can't help thinking they've wildly overachieved and shouldn't have gotten this far--but then again, Tech massively impressed me in the Final, they very much deserved to be there, and perhaps Tottenham will rise up and prove me wrong again. I like Ajax, they play a tight, teamwork game and I think they're the favorite here.
Barcelona-Liverpool
The real final, no? Barca is rolling but somehow they don't seem like they've really had to do anything yet, you know? Liverpool's offense is really good and they will keep Barca honest. This is a great matchup, looking forward to catching this opening game (which I am about to watch right now). I guess I'll give Barca just because they're really good but I wouldn't be shocked if Liverpool outworked them.
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